Career Averages - Nate Landwehr
Career Averages - Austin Lingo
Nate Landwehr
Austin Lingo
Nate Landwehr - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.
Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.
Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.
Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.
Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.
The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.
James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.
Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.
Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.
Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 63 of 155 | 40% | 65 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 67 of 131 | 51% | 67 of 131 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 43 of 103 | 41% | 43 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 63 of 155 | 40% | 54 of 142 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 63 of 153 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 67 of 131 | 51% | 41 of 100 | 12 of 14 | 14 of 17 | 64 of 124 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 18 of 46 | 39% | 14 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 27 of 43 | 62% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 43 of 103 | 41% | 38 of 96 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 33 of 64 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 33 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.
Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.
Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.
The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 32 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 78 of 116 | 67% | 114 of 157 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 40 of 66 | 60% | 40 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 23 of 29 | 79% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 48 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 25 of 67 | 37% | 13 of 47 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 78 of 116 | 67% | 61 of 98 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 62 of 99 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 9 of 25 | 36% | 2 of 11 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 40 of 66 | 60% | 32 of 57 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 38 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 12 of 30 | 40% | 7 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 23 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 23 of 29 | 79% | 15 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Dooho Choi | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 21 | 71% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Landwehr (-142), Choi (+120)
Round 1
Strange card placement aside, this featherweight brawl was one the UFC brass considered guaranteed fireworks. It’s not a bird or a plane, it’s “The Train” Landwehr (18-5, 5-3 UFC). Standing across the cage from him will be “The Korean Superboy” Choi (15-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC), and referee Chris Tognoni is as ready as anyone else for this one to go down. Before they swing for the bleachers, the strikers touch ‘em up. Landwehr practically runs into Choi’s hand, coming out so fired up. It is Choi who lands first, blasting Landwehr in the face with a surprise uppercut. Choi wraps a right hand around the guard, and he knocks Landwehr to a knee with a massive left hook. Landwehr bounces back and is in front of Choi, but Choi is attacking while Landwehr’s first strike of the fight is a stomping kick to the knee. Choi scores a leg kick and puts a few punches behind it, shaking “The Train” up. Landwehr tries to get a little space with a front kick as blood trickles from the inside corners of both eyebrows, and Choi crashes towards him with a blistering uppercut. Choi backs off with a leg kick, and he digs a left to the body and allows Landwehr to shoot on him so he can push Landwehr to his knees. Choi takes his back but does not try to get his hooks in. When Landwehr adjusts, Choi suddenly wraps his legs around his foe’s waist and to keep him on the canvas. Choi sits down comfortably and allows his opponent to spin around so they can stand up together. Choi drives a knee to the midsection when Landwehr stands, and he walks the Tennessee native down to hurt him with a right hand and then an uppercut. Landwehr tries to pitch another front kick, and Choi rings his bell with a painful uppercut. Choi drops down, absorbs a knee and stands up tall and bangs the top of his head off Landwehr’s chin. Choi marches forward fearlessly, landing punches on either side of the head while Landwehr is stuck keeping his guard up most of the time. Choi goes to the body, and Landwehr strikes back with a right hand. Choi knocks Landwehr’s head back like a Pez dispenser with a nasty uppercut, and Landwehr closes in to clinch and get his bearings. Landwehr scores a short strike on the inside, and he pushes out of the tie-up using a knee. Choi dings him with one last left, and the one-sided round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Round 2
Choi offers a glove touch when Landwehr rushes at him to begin the second stanza, and they trade hands early with Choi landing first, last and much faster. Choi hammers the front leg with a kick, throwing Landwehr off-balance, and he uses his jab to set up power strikes. Choi connects with a low kick, and Landwehr ties him up and leans against him on the cage for a time. Choi spins him about, takes an elbow and breaks off. Choi boxes him up, mixing up the straight punches to the head and body. When Landwehr comes at him, Choi chops down his front leg. Landwehr keeps moving after taking the kick, bopping the South Korean in the nose with a spinning back elbow. Choi allows him to complete his rotation so he can hurl “The Train” to the floor like side of beef. Choi steps into full mount with ease, and he thinks about gripping a choke and lets it go to hit Landwehr in the back of the head. Landwehr scrambles to escape the precarious position, but he ends up getting flattened out on his stomach while Choi smacks him upside the head. Landwehr does not settle for staying flat for long, and Choi stretches him out but is not attempting much else in the way of submissions. Choi gets both hooks in and does not want to set up the body triangle so he can back out of this, and he lets Landwehr follow him so he can suddenly tackle the former M-1 champ down to the canvas. Choi lands in half guard and decides against taking advantage of the position, instead bailing on it and standing up. Landwehr follows immediately and pushes Choi to the fencing, but the South Korean is quick to turn him about. Two clubbing strikes from Landwehr land right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Round 3
The fighters clap hands, and Landwehr throws caution to the wind immediately. Landwehr hurls huge punches, with haymakers that land flush on the side of Choi’s dome. Choi laughs them off and swings back just as hard, but faster. Landwehr backs himself up to the fence in hopes of goading Choi towards him, but he has to settle for following Choi. As Landwehr gets as reckless as can be, Choi hits an easy takedown and advances immediately to side control. Choi wraps up Landwehr’s left arm between his legs to lock down a crucifix, and he hammers down a few elbows before Landwehr sits up. Choi uses his body weight to keep Landwehr stuck in the bad place, and he pounds on Landwehr’s face with fists when elbows are not the right strike. Choi draws further blood as he bludgeons “The Train,” with Landwehr’s bucks and twists thwarted each and every turn. Choi slashes down with methodical elbows, and Tognoni asks for Landwehr to improve his position. Choi punches Landwehr several times in the mouth, and Landwehr groans and grunts. With Tognoni watching on closely, Choi hammers the nail with a final barrage of elbows. Tognoni waves the fight off, and Landwehr is disappointed but not about to cry foul after getting beaten up for the better part of three rounds. Winner of two in a row, “The Korean Superboy” announces himself as a renewed force in the talent-rich featherweight division.
The Official Result
Doo Ho Choi def. Nate Landwehr R3 3:21 via TKO (Elbows)
Angelo picks Nate Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and takedowns against Choi's poor takedown defense. He expects Landwehr to shoot a million takedowns and grind out a win. However, he notes Landwehr is chinny and 36, and Choi has power, so he will probably avoid betting on this fight due to red flags.
Cody picks Landwehr, believing his aggressive pressure will overwhelm Choi. He notes Choi's finesse style and vulnerability to pressure fighters. He expects a violent fight and suggests it won't go to decision.
Connor picks Landwehr based on confidence and momentum. He notes that Choi went eight years without a win and looked mentally fragile, while Landwehr is a dog who thrives on chaos. Connor believes Landwehr will force a war and that Choi's defense and confidence are not up to the task.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, citing that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may be compromised after getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. He notes Landwehr is solid everywhere, especially on the feet, and has underrated submission skills with two of his last four wins by submission. He likes the number on Landwehr and sees him as a good candidate for a club-and-sub.
Daniel picks Choi to upset Landwehr, citing Choi's improved cardio and technique since his return. He believes Choi's clean boxing and experience in wars will overcome Landwehr's attrition style. He predicts a knockout, noting Landwehr gets hurt in every fight.
Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, emphasizing that people sleep on Landwehr's submission skills, noting his nice darce chokes and front headlock game. He also points out that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may not be as good as it used to be, as evidenced by getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. Fox believes Choi is a one-dimensional power puncher without a steel chin, so he takes Landwehr all day.
Lucrative James picks Nate Landwehr to win inside the distance, citing his grappling upside, cardio advantage, and higher level of competition. He acknowledges the volatility due to both fighters being hittable, but believes Landwehr's experience and durability will prevail. He suggests looking at props like TKO or submission in rounds 2 or 3.
Choi has the technical striking advantage and confidence from knocking out Bill Algeo earlier this year. He will counter Landwehr off his back foot and find a big shot within one and a half rounds to get a knockout victory.
Paul picks Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and ability to break opponents. He notes Choi's accuracy but thinks Landwehr's chaos will be too much. He expects a fun fight and believes Landwehr wins more often than not.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Landwehr, believing pressure breaks Dooho Choi. He notes Choi can be pressured and broken, and while Choi could catch Landwehr early, Landwehr's recovery is good. He expects Landwehr to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds, leading to a TKO win or a D'Arce choke.
Zane agrees, citing Landwehr's self-belief and Choi's lack of confidence. He notes that Choi's defense has always been poor and that Landwehr will bring the chaos that Choi struggles with. Zane also points out that Choi's win over Bill Algeo was against a fading opponent, while Landwehr is a proven tough out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 1 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 39 of 78 | 50% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 1 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 39 of 78 | 50% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 37 of 76 | 48% | 34 of 70 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Jamall Emmers | 39 of 78 | 50% | 24 of 59 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 37 of 76 | 48% | 34 of 70 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Jamall Emmers | 39 of 78 | 50% | 24 of 59 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to the odds and Nate Landwehr's forward pressure. He notes Emmers is a calculated striker with good takedown defense, but Landwehr's relentless pressure could cause problems. He goes back and forth on whether Emmers should be a 2-to-1 favorite, ultimately sticking with Emmers but not fully confident.
Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He notes Emmers has a reach advantage, good striking with leg kicks, and elite takedown defense. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Emmers is the better striker, though Landwehr is tough and can eat shots. Brady sees a competitive decision win for Emmers.
Cody picks Emmers despite being a fan of Landwehr, citing Emmers' speed, lateral movement, and wrestling. He worries about Landwehr's durability and recklessness, and thinks Emmers can pick him apart from the outside. He also notes a potential weight cut issue for Emmers but still favors him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jamall Emmers but with hesitation due to the price (-220). He acknowledges Emmers' superior skills and athleticism but worries about his mental consistency and decision-making (e.g., leg lock exchange with Pat Sabatini). He thinks Emmers should win if he stays focused, but notes Landwehr's pressure and durability could make it tough. He prefers to pass or look at props.
Emmers has speed, agility, and wrestling but has shown poor fight IQ (e.g., striking with Julian Rosa after grappling success). Landwehr's constant forward pressure and durability could trouble Emmers. If Emmers uses his wrestling and counters, he should win, but his tendency to brawl is a risk. Prediction: Emmers by decision, but not a confident bet.
Paul is tempted by Landwehr's dog mentality and plus money, but acknowledges Emmers' skill advantage. He makes a shoey bet with Cody, taking Landwehr at 2-to-1 odds, showing some faith in Landwehr's ability to out-tough Emmers.
The host picks Jamall Emmers to knock out Nate Landwehr in the first round. He believes Landwehr's chin is suspect, citing his fights against Austin Lingo and David Onama where he got wobbled. He thinks Emmers is underrated, with wins over quality opponents, and has the reach, speed, and patience to land a clean shot. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 88 of 184 | 47% | 88 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 74 of 195 | 37% | 74 of 195 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 12 of 44 | 27% | 12 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 1 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 41 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 32 of 82 | 39% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 88 of 184 | 47% | 61 of 143 | 19 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 78 of 169 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 74 of 195 | 37% | 54 of 161 | 13 of 24 | 7 of 10 | 55 of 168 | 18 of 24 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 14 of 45 | 31% | 8 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 12 of 44 | 27% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 41 of 78 | 52% | 28 of 59 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 68 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 30 of 69 | 43% | 20 of 57 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 59 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 50 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 32 of 82 | 39% | 25 of 71 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 69 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.
Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.
Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.
Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.
James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.
Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.
Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.
Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 64 of 153 | 41% | 68 of 160 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 48 of 146 | 32% | 50 of 148 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 31 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 34 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 64 of 153 | 41% | 36 of 104 | 9 of 25 | 19 of 24 | 61 of 148 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Austin Lingo | 48 of 146 | 32% | 28 of 116 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 48 of 146 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 34 of 78 | 43% | 20 of 52 | 2 of 9 | 12 of 17 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 75 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 30 of 75 | 40% | 16 of 52 | 7 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Austin Lingo | 18 of 55 | 32% | 9 of 41 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.
Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.
Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.
Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.
The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.
The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.
Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 91 of 185 | 49% | 133 of 253 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 5:05 |
| David Onama | 1 | 71 of 174 | 40% | 79 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 1:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 |
| David Onama | 1 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 53 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 43 of 76 | 56% | 65 of 116 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:08 |
| David Onama | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 39 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| David Onama | 0 | 17 of 62 | 27% | 17 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 91 of 185 | 49% | 73 of 154 | 10 of 18 | 8 of 13 | 52 of 120 | 22 of 35 | 17 of 30 |
| David Onama | 71 of 174 | 40% | 62 of 158 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 50 of 139 | 1 of 3 | 20 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 21 of 52 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 14 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| David Onama | 46 of 91 | 50% | 39 of 80 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 16 of 24 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 43 of 76 | 56% | 35 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 37 | 7 of 12 | 14 of 27 |
| David Onama | 8 of 21 | 38% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 27 of 57 | 47% | 25 of 50 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 40 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| David Onama | 17 of 62 | 27% | 16 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Angelo picks David Onama due to his power and technical striking. He notes Landwehr is a live underdog with forward pressure but if Onama gets room, he will get the knockout. Onama is also a knockout kings pick.
Big Brady picks David Onama to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Onama has a 100% finish rate and is the more dangerous striker with more power. Landwehr has good takedown defense (87%) but is hittable and has been knocked out twice in the UFC. Brady expects a stand-up war where Onama lands the bigger shots and finishes Landwehr.
Cody picks David Onama, acknowledging his bias for Landwehr but reasoning that Onama's power and athleticism will catch Landwehr coming forward. He notes Landwehr's durability issues and that Onama is getting more comfortable in the UFC. Cody believes Onama will clip Landwehr at some point.
Daniel Levi picks Nate Landwehr as a plus-265 underdog, acknowledging the risk of Onama's African power and raw talent. He believes Landwehr can win if he fights disciplined with his hands up, uses his experience, and drags Onama into deep waters. Levi notes that Onama is still green and that Landwehr showed improved technique in his last fight. However, he admits Landwehr could get knocked out early.
The host picks Landwehr as the biggest upset on the card based on odds. He notes Landwehr's takedowns, control time, and output, and believes he can pull it off at +290. He also mentions that Landwehr in front of a full crowd is very live.
Paul picks David Onama by TKO, citing Onama's power and reach advantage. He notes that Landwehr has been finished in the first round twice and tends to run into strikes. Paul likes Onama by TKO at +175 as a way to avoid the -315 moneyline.
The host picks David Onama by first-round TKO, comparing the fight to Onama's win over Gabriel Benítez. He notes Landwehr's tendency to get hit early and lack of head movement, and believes Onama's crisp shots will land. He initially had high confidence but lowered it after considering Landwehr's crowd energy, though he still picks Onama.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 71 of 130 | 54% | 103 of 163 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 42 of 85 | 49% | 44 of 87 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 61 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 71 of 130 | 54% | 41 of 85 | 18 of 30 | 12 of 15 | 45 of 93 | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 42 of 85 | 49% | 20 of 55 | 18 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 39 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 20 of 41 | 48% | 5 of 20 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 19 of 37 | 51% | 6 of 20 | 11 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 37 of 61 | 60% | 30 of 49 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 33 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 13 of 31 | 41% | 9 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 14 of 28 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 10 of 17 | 58% | 5 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Klein wins, likely by stoppage. He praises Klein's phenomenal striking, footwork, and smooth movement, which will allow him to dance around Landwehr's wild pressure. Landwehr is feast-or-famine and puts himself in harm's way. Klein also showed new wrestling elements in his last fight. Angelo thinks Klein's footwork and clean striking will lead to a finish, though he acknowledges Landwehr's chaos could cause an upset.
Big Brady is confident Klein wins by knockout, likely a head kick, given Landwehr's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He notes Klein has multiple head kick KOs on his record and Landwehr is hittable and reckless. He sees no clear path to victory for Landwehr.
Cody picks Landwehr as a dog, acknowledging his durability issues but believing his pressure and cardio will overwhelm Klein if he survives the first round. He notes that Klein faded in his last fight against Trizano and that Landwehr's all-action style and track record of pushing a pace make him live as an underdog. He plans to use it as a PRP shot at the bottom of parlays.
Daniel picks Klein to win early, citing his dangerous high kick and first-round explosiveness. He worries about Klein's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, as seen in the Mike Trizano fight. Landwehr gets hit a lot (8 strikes per minute), which is a recipe for disaster against a sharp striker like Klein. However, if Klein doesn't finish early, Landwehr's toughness and deep-water experience could make it interesting.
Klein is a precise, powerful striker who will land a fight-ending shot on Landwehr, whose chin is deteriorating. Landwehr has poor striking defense and has been knocked out recently. Klein by KO is the most likely outcome, likely in the first two rounds.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' strengths and weaknesses but does not state a definitive choice.
The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by first-round KO, citing Landwehr's recent chin issues and tendency to get knocked down by any shot. He notes Klein's head-kick KOs and fast starts, predicting a head kick to combination finish. He acknowledges Landwehr's past success but attributes recent losses to a deteriorating chin.
Austin Lingo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 39 of 139 | 28% | 39 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 100 of 220 | 45% | 108 of 236 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melquizael Costa | 0 | 14 of 56 | 25% | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 43 of 94 | 45% | 45 of 96 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Melquizael Costa | 0 | 17 of 56 | 30% | 17 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 37 of 83 | 44% | 38 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Melquizael Costa | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 25 of 56 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melquizael Costa | 39 of 139 | 28% | 24 of 114 | 11 of 17 | 4 of 8 | 39 of 139 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 100 of 220 | 45% | 39 of 133 | 48 of 73 | 13 of 14 | 93 of 209 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melquizael Costa | 14 of 56 | 25% | 9 of 44 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 43 of 94 | 45% | 18 of 53 | 20 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 42 of 92 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Melquizael Costa | 17 of 56 | 30% | 9 of 46 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 37 of 83 | 44% | 13 of 52 | 18 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 36 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Melquizael Costa | 8 of 27 | 29% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 20 of 43 | 46% | 8 of 28 | 10 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-210), Lingo (+180)
Round 1
LFA veterans will come to blows in a featherweight affair that could be fast and furious for as long as it lasts. Fortis MMA’s Lingo (9-2, 2-2 UFC) and Brazilian Costa (19-6, 0-1 UFC) are equal opportunity finishers, so anything may be in play coming next. Referee Keith Peterson is ready for wherever the fight may take them unless it involves nonsense, and he sits back as they come together without bothering to touch gloves. Lingo is the initial aggressor, making the blue-haired Costa backpedal quickly. Costa looks for a step-in knee, and when Lingo swings at him, Costa’s head comes up and bumps Lingo in the chin. Lingo shakes it off and blocks a front kick, and he races forward throwing left hooks. Costa retaliates with a left hand and a leg kick, and the latter is checked. Costa springs in with a right hand, and Lingo sends him back into the cage wall with a left hand. Costa scores a low kick and a body kick, and Lingo drops his guard when the latter slams home. Costa sneaks in a left, and Lingo grits his teeth and tags Cost with two punches. Costa works the body with another kick, and he spins with a back kick that is just out of range. Lingo rushes forward and loads up with a left to the body, and he proceeds to muscle Costa to the floor. Costa jumps back up and eats a jab, and he unloads with a head kick. Costa pierces the guard with a jab to bloody up the nose, and he slams his shin on the midsection. Costa sticks Lingo with a left hand, and his body kick doubles Lingo over. Lingo bounces off the wall, and Costa knows he has his man hurt. Costa loads up on two more body kicks, and Lingo is wearing it. Costa kicks high when Lingo has his guard down, and Lingo is tough and wears the strikes well enough to keep going. Lingo slings a big right hand, only to walk into a knee to the midsection. Costa works him over with another kick to the ribs, and he is feeling himself as he spins with a back kick. Lingo’s body language is not great as the kicks continue to break his body down, but he still throws hands. Costa jabs his toes in the sternum, smacks “Lights Out” with a high kick and then spins with a wheel kick that slaps off the raised guard. Lingo jabs his way in and still absorbs a body kick, and he takes a flush head kick right on the beard. Lingo crowds his man with a combination, and he is pushed away and kicked. Costa spins with one last kick to the body, and his wheel kick misses at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The featherweights are ready and rearing to go, rushing out of their corners to get the hostilities started again. Lingo swats away a leg kick, and when he comes forward with a left hand, Costa is there with a left hook and a shin to the chin. Lingo blocks a kick and evades a spinning one, and he pressures Costa and gets off a jab. Costa jabs him back, and the two trade leg kicks. Lingo reaches out with an overhand right that brushes off the nose, and Costa unloads with a leg kick that forces Lingo to turn around awkwardly. Costa reaches out with a right hand, and he uses it to disallow Lingo from reaching him. Costa doubles up on body kicks, and Lingo shakes his head at him. Lingo turns his hips into a high leg kick, and he jabs only to eat a left hook. Lingo doubles up a jab only to eat a kick to the breadbasket, and Costa is able to tee off on him at range. Costa goes high with a shin, and he stabs his toes to the liver. Costa kicks the liver and absorbs a flush jab, and a straight left hand that follows drops Costa to his knees. Lingo lets him back up and strikes him in the face a few times, but Costa gathers his thoughts, shakes his head and kicks Lingo in the ribs. Costa’s nose bleeds, and he sways back from an overhand right and brushes his shoulder. The two crash together in the pocket and throw bombs, and Costa slips back and pushes out a straight left. Costa kicks the lead leg, the side, and lines a straight left hand down Broadway. Lingo is shaken up but still very much in the fight, as he throws a hammer back. Costa drives another kick home to the body, and Lingo belts him in the chin with a left hook. Lingo digs a right to the body, and he is answered by a kick to the side. Costa slides a kick upside the head, and Lingo completely no-sells it so that he can blitz forward with his own short barrage of punches. Costa jumps with a knee, and Lingo watches it land as he sits down on a right hand. They both smack each other with hooks, and Costa spins with a kick to the body as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
The two have reached the last round, and Lingo pushes the pace immediately. Walking straight into and through a few body kicks, Lingo nevertheless comes forward and lines up his left hand. Costa counters with a takedown, and Lingo shoves him away and tags him with a right hand. Costa slides to the side and kicks the ribs, and he trips Lingo to the floor when they tie up. Lingo fights his way up and thwarts a second toss so that he can give chase and chamber his right hook. Costa backpedals and kicks the side, and he doubles up on it as Lingo bends over to try to block the worst of it. Lingo jabs the body and keeps his guard up high to defend against a spin kick to his face. Costa parries a Lingo swarm and kicks Lingo in the face, and Lingo’s toughness is off the charts as he does not seem fazed from the head or body work. Lingo overswings with a right hand, and Costa tackles him to the ground from behind. Lingo sits up, and Costa threatens by looping his arms under the armpits of his opponent. Lingo stops a rear-naked choke and subsequent kimura try to work back to his feet, and Costa drags him right back down from behind. “Melk” snatches up a rear-naked choke from behind while he hops on the back, and Lingo leans over and tries to shimmy Costa off of him. Costa is too heavy to do this, and he pressures Lingo to his knees. Costa leans back and snags hold of the rear-naked choke he was seeking, but Lingo instantly falls to his back and lowers his chin to defend from it. Lingo gets out of the choke and turns to his back, and he pushes off Costa’s chest. Costa bullies him down as Lingo turns to his knees, but Lingo is still able to stand. Costa tries to trip him down, and Lingo looks at the clock which says 40 seconds remaining. The Brazilian slings Lingo to his seat, and Lingo jumps back up. Costa drops down for a guillotine choke, and Lingo rolls to his side to defend it properly. Lingo gives the thumbs-up with the choke not securely fastened, and the fight ends in this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Austin Lingo via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, believing a full camp Costa is better than a full camp Lingo. He notes Costa is a creative striker who uses his grappling well, while Lingo is a tough, well-rounded striker. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Costa, calling it a perfect fight to see how good a prospect Costa is. He advises against throwing money on this fight.
Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa, citing his superior striking volume, kicks, and offensive grappling. He notes Costa is hittable but tough, while Lingo has power but hasn't translated it at UFC level. He thinks Costa has more ways to win, though the fight may be closer than the line suggests. He calls -205 'kind of stupid' but expects Costa to get the job done.
Cody picks Costa, citing his faster, crisper striking and Lingo's basic, robotic style. He notes Lingo's inactivity and injuries, and that Costa's takedown defense won't be tested since Lingo doesn't wrestle. He thinks Costa's combination punching and power will be too much, and that Lingo's one-two pattern will get figured out.
The host thinks Costa's footwork, speed, and kicking game will keep him safe at distance, allowing him to touch up Lingo en route to a decision. He compares it to Lingo's fight with Luis Saldana, but believes Costa has the cardio to go the full 15 minutes unlike Saldana.
Paul picks Costa, citing his more well-rounded skill set on the feet. He thinks Costa will win with volume and precise striking over 15 minutes. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees it as a necessary play on a greasy card. He also mentions a PrizePicks prop for under 1.5 takedowns for Costa, as he doesn't expect wrestling to be part of the game plan.
The MMA Guru picks Melquizael Costa over Austin Lingo, dismissing Lingo's talent and noting his weak UFC wins over lower-level opponents. He highlights Costa's dangerous striking, good regional performances, and a Contender Series KO, while noting Lingo's quick turnaround after a KO loss to Nate Landwehr. He predicts Costa wins by KO in the later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 64 of 153 | 41% | 68 of 160 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 48 of 146 | 32% | 50 of 148 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 31 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 34 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 64 of 153 | 41% | 36 of 104 | 9 of 25 | 19 of 24 | 61 of 148 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Austin Lingo | 48 of 146 | 32% | 28 of 116 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 48 of 146 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 34 of 78 | 43% | 20 of 52 | 2 of 9 | 12 of 17 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 75 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 30 of 75 | 40% | 16 of 52 | 7 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Austin Lingo | 18 of 55 | 32% | 9 of 41 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.
Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.
Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.
Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.
The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.
The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.
Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Lingo | 1 | 73 of 181 | 40% | 74 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Luis Saldaña | 0 | 77 of 160 | 48% | 81 of 165 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Lingo | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luis Saldaña | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Austin Lingo | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 33 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Luis Saldaña | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 29 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Austin Lingo | 1 | 16 of 44 | 36% | 17 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Luis Saldaña | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Lingo | 73 of 181 | 40% | 45 of 143 | 23 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 73 of 179 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Saldaña | 77 of 160 | 48% | 34 of 111 | 26 of 31 | 17 of 18 | 75 of 158 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Lingo | 24 of 56 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Saldaña | 34 of 66 | 51% | 16 of 45 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Austin Lingo | 33 of 81 | 40% | 20 of 64 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Saldaña | 29 of 61 | 47% | 12 of 43 | 10 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Austin Lingo | 16 of 44 | 36% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Saldaña | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Austin Lingo as a dog, but with low confidence. He likes Lingo's pressure and power, and notes both fighters are finishers. He thinks the fight will end in a knockout and picks Lingo to close the distance and land a hard shot. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a solid bet.
Cody leans toward Saldaña, citing his flashy striking, mobility, and ability to stay at range. He notes Lingo's power but questions his cardio and experience in longer fights. He expects a close decision and sees value on Saldaña.
Saldana is a great striker with good combinations and kicks, and he can fight off his back foot. Lingo has knockout power but tends to follow opponents rather than cut off the cage, which plays into Saldana's matador style. I think Saldana cruises to a decision unless Lingo lands a clean shot early.
Paul picks Saldaña, highlighting his kick-heavy range game and ability to matador Lingo. He notes Lingo's tendency to load up and tire, and believes Saldaña can maintain distance and outpoint him. He expects the fight to go the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Lingo as an underdog. He sees red flags in Saldaña's game, especially poor takedown defense and losses to lower-level opponents. Lingo is well-rounded with good cardio, grappling, and a good chin. He believes Lingo can exploit Saldaña's holes and get an upset win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 64 of 201 | 31% | 78 of 216 | 1 of 18 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 1 | 95 of 182 | 52% | 110 of 197 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Lingo | 0 | 21 of 74 | 28% | 21 of 74 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 1 | 44 of 83 | 53% | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Austin Lingo | 0 | 19 of 58 | 32% | 23 of 62 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 26 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 | |
| 3 | Austin Lingo | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 34 of 80 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 39 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Lingo | 64 of 201 | 31% | 47 of 172 | 8 of 19 | 9 of 10 | 60 of 190 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 3 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 95 of 182 | 52% | 81 of 166 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 93 of 177 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Lingo | 21 of 74 | 28% | 15 of 62 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 44 of 83 | 53% | 39 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Austin Lingo | 19 of 58 | 32% | 15 of 51 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 51 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 26 of 48 | 54% | 21 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Austin Lingo | 24 of 69 | 34% | 17 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Jacob Kilburn | 25 of 51 | 49% | 21 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Austin Lingo to win by first-round knockout. He expects both fighters to stand and bang until one falls. He notes that Kilburn has been finished in all three losses by submission, but he thinks Lingo will knock him out. He doesn't love the -225 line but believes Lingo is the more skilled fighter.
Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Austin Lingo, calling Jacob Kilburn potentially the worst fighter in the featherweight division. He cites insider information from ATT training partners who dominated Kilburn in sparring, and notes that Lingo's poor debut was due to late notice. He expects Lingo to win by knockout or dominant decision.
Lingo has dynamite in his hands and is a combination striker with good footwork. Kilburn is a one-and-done puncher who throws spinning attacks but lacks combinations. Both are primarily strikers, so the fight should stay on the feet. Lingo's better technique and camp (Fortis MMA) give him the edge. However, Lingo's price is steep, and he has limited UFC tape. The under 2.5 rounds at plus money is a better bet, as both have finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Lingo over Jacob Kilburn, citing Lingo's superior ground game as a fallback if striking doesn't work. He notes Kilburn's glaring weakness on the ground, exposed in previous losses. He predicts a finish in the second or third round, either by TKO or submission, as Kilburn slows down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 12 of 61 | 19% | 16 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 49 of 80 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 6:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Youssef Zalal | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 10 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 18 of 36 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Youssef Zalal | 0 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 13 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Youssef Zalal | 0 | 4 of 20 | 20% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 18 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssef Zalal | 12 of 61 | 19% | 5 of 47 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 56 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 31 of 55 | 56% | 16 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Youssef Zalal | 8 of 30 | 26% | 4 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 16 of 31 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Youssef Zalal | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 5 of 6 | 83% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Youssef Zalal | 4 of 20 | 20% | 1 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The Octagon debutantes touch gloves and we’re underway, with Lingo quickly taking the center of the cage. Lingo connects with a left but eats a knee to the body before the featherweights clinch. Zalal lands a calf kick and follows up with a high kick. Zalal grabs a leg and shoves Lingo into the fence. Lingo is already bleeding from his nose. Lingo lands a punch to the body before they separate. Zalal goes back to the low kick, but eats a snapping right hand moments later. Zalal attempts to get Lingo down with a body lock. Lingo is up but Zalal maintains a front headlock, where he lands a series of knees to the head before the Fortis MMA member breaks free. Lingo continues to bleed profusely from his nose. Zalal lands a jumping knee as Lingo pressures with a series of punches against the cage. Lingo with a solid right hand before forcing the clinch. Zalal lands another calf quick before circling out of danger. The Factory X representative takes Lingo down with about 45 seconds left. Lingo explodes to his feet and lands a takedown of his own in the waning seconds. 10-9 Zalal.
Round 2
Zalal changes levels and grabs a single leg, forcing Lingo to the fence. Lingo defends as long as he can, but Zalal dumps his man on his seat against the cage. Zalal has settled into Lingo’s full guard as he pulls his foe away from the fence. Lingo is able to free his right arm, which was previously trapped underneath his body. Lingo attempts to scramble up, but he allows Zalal to lock in a brabo choke. Lingo stands, but Zalal still has the choke in place. Zalal falls back and tightens the maneuver. Lingo is able to break free and they stand with 1:30 left in the round. Lingo continues to apply pressure on the feet, but he’s struggling to track Zalal down. Zalal lands another takedown with less than a minute to go. Lingo briefly clings to a guillotine, but Zalal is in no real danger. The combatants return to their feet and Lingo blocks a high kick at the horn. 10-9 Zalal.
Round 3
Zalal goes back to the calf kick. Moments later he throws a head kick, but Lingo blocks it. Zalal comes down the middle with a knee and then follows up by landing a straight left. Zalal with a push kick to the gut and then a rear kick to the body. Lingo pressures with punches, but Zalal forces the clinch. Moments later, Zalal is able to trip Lingo to the canvas in the center of the Octagon. Lingo rolls and recovers full guard as Zalal attempts to move to his foe’s back. Zalal drops some short elbows from top position. Lingo creates space with his legs and hustles up to his feet, but his head is caught in a front headlock. Zalal snaps him down and looks to lock in an anaconda choke. Zalal lets it go and returns to the front headlock. He separates and lands a jab. Lingo forces the clinch, but the featherweights separate and Zalal fires a high kick that’s blocked. With time winding down, Zalal gets Lingo down again, and he threatens with both a guillotine and a brabo choke before the contest ends. 10-9 Zalal (30-27 Zalal).
The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Austin Lingo via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Daniel Levi picks Austin Lingo to knock out Youssef Zalal. He highlights Lingo's knockout power and consistent pressure from Fortis, while noting Zalal's tendency to be bullied by physical fighters. He believes Lingo will go forward and land heavy shots, possibly finishing the fight.
The host does not pick a side but instead focuses on the under 2.5 rounds, citing both fighters' aggressive striking styles and finishing ability. He notes that both have only gone to decision twice in their careers, making the under a strong play. He mentions that if a side were forced, he would lean Zalal but the under is the primary bet.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.
Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.
Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.
Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.
The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.
The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.
Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.
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