vs
-136 +130
UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023 · Bantamweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 11"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Cory Sandhagen
4.86 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.15 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marlon Vera
4.18 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
5.34 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Cory Sandhagen
Moneyline
FanDuel -136
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetWay +130
Marlon Vera
Moneyline
BetRivers +130
KO/TKO
BetRivers +430
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
FanDuel +550
Cory Sandhagen - Fight History
SCHED vs Mario Bautista
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 114 of 265 43% 243 of 399 20 of 37 54% 0 0 10:02
Cory Sandhagen 0 80 of 184 43% 149 of 257 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 46 23% 32 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:52
Cory Sandhagen 0 27 of 53 50% 58 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 33 of 49 67% 73 of 92 8 of 13 61% 0 0 3:43
Cory Sandhagen 0 2 of 9 22% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 48 31% 46 of 80 3 of 8 37% 0 0 1:57
Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 35 40% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 56 37% 31 of 66 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:26
Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 66 51% 61 of 94 6 of 8 75% 0 0 2:04
Cory Sandhagen 0 18 of 44 40% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 114 of 265 43% 86 of 231 13 of 18 15 of 16 79 of 220 22 of 27 13 of 18
Cory Sandhagen 80 of 184 43% 46 of 143 18 of 23 16 of 18 80 of 184 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 46 23% 9 of 42 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 27 of 53 50% 14 of 39 4 of 4 9 of 10 27 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 16 of 25 8 of 10 9 of 14
Cory Sandhagen 2 of 9 22% 1 of 6 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 48 31% 12 of 44 1 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 14 of 35 40% 7 of 28 4 of 4 3 of 3 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 56 37% 9 of 42 5 of 6 7 of 8 17 of 52 4 of 4 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 19 of 43 44% 12 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 66 51% 23 of 54 7 of 8 4 of 4 23 of 53 7 of 9 4 of 4
Cory Sandhagen 18 of 44 40% 12 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, acknowledging that Cory Sandhagen is a tough matchup with good skills everywhere. He believes Merab's non-stop chain wrestling and cardio are his biggest weapons, and that Sandhagen is better than Sean O'Malley but still likely to lose. He notes that Sandhagen's cardio slowed against Umar, and that Merab's pressure will be overwhelming.

"Morab's going to be the pick, but I'm not dismissing Cory Sanhagen's ability to make this an ugly fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady thinks the fight will be competitive but clear in favor of Dvalishvili. He notes that Sandhagen has advantages in height, reach, and striking, but Dvalishvili's wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place will be key. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, possibly 49-46 or 48-47. He does not like the line but is not picking against Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
"I like Morav to get it done. I just I just really don't like the line. But give me Rob by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor picks Dvalishvili, agreeing with Zane that Sandhagen's physicality is a major concern. He highlights that Sandhagen's best path is to pressure Merab and keep him on the back foot, but even then, Merab's wrestling and durability make it hard to win a decision. Connor also notes that Sandhagen lacks finishing power at the highest level, making it unlikely he stops Merab.

"Yeah, you really do. So yeah, I'm glad they made this fight. I don't think it'll be boring, but I just do not at my core believe that Corey Sandhagen can go out there and fight a busy fight without …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host expects a classic Dvalishvili performance with takedowns and control time, possibly threatening submissions, but Sandhagen will be too slippery to catch, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

"I think we'll see a classic Dvalishvili performance here where he will get his takedowns, he'll get his control time... I think Sandhagen will be too slimy to catch in anything of substance and that will lead to Dvalishvili winning …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his relentless pace, takedowns, and improving striking. He notes Cory Sandhagen's lack of finishing ability and tendency to leave fights close. He predicts a 49-46 or 48-47 decision.

"I'm going with Merab. Sandhagen's good. I think he'll do better than O'Malley in the rematch. We're looking at a decision here. 48-47, 49-46 Merab."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Dvalishvili because he believes Sandhagen lacks the physicality to consistently win scrambles and wrestling exchanges against Merab. He notes that Sandhagen has struggled against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and that Merab's endless cardio and improved striking make him a nightmare matchup. Zane also points out that even if Sandhagen has a good round or two, he is unlikely to finish Merab and will likely be worn down over five rounds.

"I just cannot fundamentally believe that Corey Sandhagen has the physicality at a very raw base level to tie up with Marabh Dvala Shavili all the time."
KO R2 4:08 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 54 of 87 62% 92 of 149 2 of 2 100% 0 1 5:07
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 6 of 9 66% 8 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 1 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 31 of 39 79% 53 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 23 of 48 47% 39 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:30
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 4 of 7 57% 5 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 54 of 87 62% 33 of 65 2 of 2 19 of 20 24 of 43 0 of 0 30 of 44
Deiveson Figueiredo 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 31 of 39 79% 22 of 30 1 of 1 8 of 8 10 of 13 0 of 0 21 of 26
Deiveson Figueiredo 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 23 of 48 47% 11 of 35 1 of 1 11 of 12 14 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 18
Deiveson Figueiredo 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-500), Figueiredo (+380)

Round 1
The final bout to grace Wells Fargo Arena on this Saturday features Sandhagen, a longtime bantamweight contender who has picked up an impressive collection of scalps while not-so-patiently waiting his chance at UFC gold, against a man in Figueiredo who has already worn the flyweight version of that hardware twice, and hopes a win over “The Sandman” will allow him to skip the line at age 38. Overseeing this ultra-high stakes clash will be veteran referee Dan Miragliotta, who thankfully has shown no sign of the clapper-versus-horn confusion that plagued him at UFC Kansas City last week. Both contenders are in orthodox stance, and it is the taller Sandhagen who takes the front foot in the early going. Figueiredo scores with a calf kick, and Sandhagen clinches and moves his foe to the fence. They jockey for position there, punctuated by a few short strikes, before disengaging. Figueiredo lands a solid uppercut on the break. They move back to the center of the Octagon and Figueiredo lands another uppercut, then changes levels and pulls the action to the canvas. Figueiredo moves to Sandhagen’s back in a flash, and looks close to securing back mount before Sandhagen tripods and elevates his hips, trying to get the Brazilian to slide off the top. He succeeds, but Figueiredo tries to hop back onto his back and actually threatens to do so for a moment. He bails and Sandhagen lands on top. Figueiredo looks for a heel hook, but Sandhagen gets to a safe spot and smashes Figueiredo with hammerfists. Figueiredo gives up the leglock and scrambles to get up, but Sandhagen ends up on top again in half guard. Figueiredo again attacks a leg, and again Sandhagen crushes the space, gets his leg out of danger and punishes “Deus da Guerra” with some thudding ground-and-pound. The round ends with Sandhagen above Figueiredo, calmly looking for openings to punch.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
Sandhagen claims the center of the cage to open Round 2 and Figueiredo meets him there. They exchange low kicks that land and punching combinations that mostly glance or miss. Figueiredo changes levels for a slick single-leg, dragging Sandhagen to the floor. There, they briefly find themselves in a “leglock race” position that must have Ryan Hall shaking his head in Sandhagen’s corner. They return to their feet and moments later, it’s Sandhagen who times his man nicely for a level change, depositing the former flyweight champ on his rear and setting up in his guard. Sandhagen throws a salvo of punches with both hands, but loses top position a few moments later and ends up with Figueiredo standing over him out of half guard.
Sandhagen reaches for a leglock from the bottom and their legs become entwined as Sandhagen jumps back into his opponent’s guard. Sandhagen sweeps to top position and throws a couple of punches before it becomes apparent that Figueiredo is done fighting. Figueiredo taps in obvious pain as Miragliotta jumps in and waves off the fight. Replay shows that the entanglement of Sandhagen’s right leg and Figuereido’s left resulted in a knee injury to the Brazilian.
It surely isn’t how they drew it up in the gym, but as Sandhagen stands alone to have his hand raised while his stricken opponent is helped back to the locker rooms, he has made a solid case for at shot at the belt in his next fight.

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Deiveson Figueiredo R2 4:08 via TKO (Knee Injury)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo is very confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing his superior striking, footwork, and durability. He believes Figueiredo's improved cardio and wrestling at bantamweight will not be enough to overcome Sandhagen's skills. He expects Sandhagen to win eight out of ten times and would bet if the odds drop to -300 or better.

Would bet if odds drop to -300 or better
"Cory Sandhagen is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady is confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing a rough matchup for Figueiredo. He notes that Figueiredo is undersized at bantamweight, his power hasn't translated, and he struggles with volume. Sandhagen has a great chin, cardio, and volume advantage, and will outland Figueiredo significantly. Figueiredo relies on moments, but Sandhagen is durable and hard to take down. Brady expects Sandhagen to pick Figueiredo apart over five rounds.

"I like Sanhagen here, and I think he picks apart Figuredo over the course of five rounds."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Sandhagen can beat Figueiredo in every phase, including on the ground. He highlights Sandhagen's calmness in grappling positions, similar to Yan's ability to stall Figueiredo's back takes. Connor notes that Figueiredo's power is real but his speed is declining, and Sandhagen's size and durability make him a tough target. He calls it a straightforward pick but expects a competitive fight.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think like Sandhagen could end up being able to beat Figueiredo in every phase of this fight, including on the ground."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

This is a perfect stylistic matchup for Sandhagen. Figueiredo may grapple early but can't keep it up for more than two rounds. Sandhagen's output, cardio, volume, and grappling will allow him to win at least three of the last four rounds and win a decision.

"I think that this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Sanhagen. Figedo may look to implement some grappling early, but I don't think he can do it for longer than two rounds, which makes me believe that Sanhagen can really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen to win by TKO in round four, possibly due to a doctor stoppage from swelling. He believes Sandhagen's range, footwork, and jab will frustrate Figueiredo, who struggles with taller opponents. He compares it to Moreno's performance but expects Sandhagen to do more damage. He notes that Sandhagen has a good chin and can survive knockdowns. He thinks the odds are crazy and Sandhagen should be a -250 favorite.

TKO in round 4, doctor stoppage possible, should be -250 favorite
"I'm going to go with Cory Sandhagen. He's suspiciously good at not getting cracked by KO blows."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Zane sees Sandhagen as a steady, adaptable technician who can fight well wherever the fight goes. He notes that Figueiredo's low output and reliance on singular moments of offense won't work against Sandhagen over five rounds. Zane also points out that Sandhagen's size and calm grappling defense will neutralize Figueiredo's takedowns, similar to how Yan handled them. He acknowledges Figueiredo's power but believes Sandhagen's consistency and volume will carry him to a decision win.

Odds are possibly a bit wide; Sandhagen at -513, Figueiredo at +392. Zane says Sandhagen could easily be -300 but gets nervous when numbers get that high.
"It's very difficult for me to envision outside of a knockout or submission, both of which have basically never happened to Corey Sandhagen, how Figueiredo could possibly beat him over five rounds."
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 71 of 159 44% 80 of 172 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 98 of 187 52% 123 of 219 5 of 13 38% 0 0 5:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 17 of 34 50% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:39
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:55
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 17 of 27 62% 20 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:25
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 30 of 65 46% 32 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 12 of 25 48% 32 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 71 of 159 44% 26 of 94 18 of 32 27 of 33 71 of 158 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 98 of 187 52% 48 of 124 27 of 39 23 of 24 96 of 182 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 17 of 34 50% 4 of 16 4 of 7 9 of 11 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 15 of 28 53% 8 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 16 of 32 50% 6 of 16 4 of 9 6 of 7 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 24 of 42 57% 11 of 27 7 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 30 40% 2 of 13 2 of 7 8 of 10 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 17 of 27 62% 2 of 6 7 of 13 8 of 8 17 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 20 of 53 37% 11 of 43 7 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 30 of 65 46% 21 of 55 5 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 12 of 25 48% 6 of 18 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov because of his elite wrestling and chain takedowns. He notes Sandhagen has been taken down by everyone who tried, and despite being more well-rounded, he doesn't see Sandhagen defending the takedowns. He expects Nurmagomedov to cruise to a decision.

"I think Umar just cruises here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady believes Umar is a future champion and that this is a winnable stylistic matchup. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but is still suspect, and Umar should have no problem taking the fight to the ground and controlling it. He predicts Umar wins by decision, acknowledging Sandhagen is being disrespected by the odds.

"I think Umar's going to have no problem getting this fight down to the ground and once Umar gets on top there's probably a really good chance he stays there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his wrestling and top control as key advantages. He notes that Umar is a 28-year-old Russian talent with solid top pressure and positional soundness, though his wrestling isn't as dominant as Khabib's. Cody believes Umar will use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking and win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges the line is wide but trusts the Dagestani game plan.

"I got to go with the OV greatness here and the Russian fighter to hopefully just land those takedowns get the control time and eventually get the unanimous decision Victory."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel is torn on this fight. He acknowledges Umar's undefeated record and the Dagestani mystique, especially in Abu Dhabi, but questions his level of competition. He notes Sandhagen's elite resume and improvements since the Yan loss, including increased takedown attempts. Ultimately, he reluctantly picks Umar due to the location and potential, but admits he has no clear read and considers it a dog or pass from a betting perspective.

"I'm gonna go Umar reluctantly but like Umar needs to prove it to me against this level of competition man he's never seen anything like this before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov's overall skill set will allow him to stay away from Sandhagen's unorthodox striking. He will eventually resort to wrestling, keeping Sandhagen on his back and grinding out a decision win.

"I think Nag's overall skill site here will allow him to stay away from the dangers that the unorthodox striking approach of San Haagen poses and I think we'll see Naga made of eventually resort to his wrestling keeping San …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his wrestling and the fact that Sandhagen has struggled against elite grapplers. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but there are levels, and Umar's striking is also coming along. Paul expects Umar to mix in takedowns and control the fight, similar to what Belal Muhammad does. He mentions the line is wide but still sides with Umar.

"I think umar's uh about to uh come knocking tell tell suar Shan he's coming."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Cory Sandhagen, believing Sandhagen is too weak despite his technique. He thinks Umar's size and strength will allow him to hold Sandhagen down, especially in Abu Dhabi where standups are rare. He notes Sandhagen's lack of power and poor wrestling compared to Umar. He predicts a boring 49-46 decision for Umar.

decision
"I'm going to go with Umar I'm going to go with Umar sadly I like Cory sandhagen I just think he ain't got enough power"
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 34 of 84 40% 132 of 211 7 of 7 100% 1 0 19:38
Rob Font 0 9 of 49 18% 25 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 8 of 26 30% 27 of 51 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:43
Rob Font 0 5 of 22 22% 6 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 7 of 15 46% 38 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:41
Rob Font 0 0 of 7 0% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 10 of 24 41% 27 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Rob Font 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 6 of 11 54% 29 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:41
Rob Font 0 0 of 4 0% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Cory Sandhagen 0 3 of 8 37% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:50
Rob Font 0 0 of 6 0% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 34 of 84 40% 30 of 79 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 47 0 of 1 24 of 36
Rob Font 9 of 49 18% 5 of 43 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 44 0 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 19 0 of 1 3 of 6
Rob Font 5 of 22 22% 2 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 17 0 of 3 1 of 2
2 Cory Sandhagen 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 8
Rob Font 0 of 7 0% 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Cory Sandhagen 10 of 24 41% 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 14 0 of 0 8 of 10
Rob Font 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Rob Font 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Cory Sandhagen 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 4
Rob Font 0 of 6 0% 0 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Cory Sandhagen, citing his active striking, fluid combinations, and solid BJJ. He notes that Rob Font is a gritty boxer with a solid chin but lacks power and is on the back nine of his career. Angelo believes Sandhagen will make it a true MMA fight by mixing in wrestling, and that the catchweight benefits Sandhagen as the larger fighter. He also points out that Font is stepping up on short notice and that Sandhagen dominated Chito Vera, who is more dangerous than Font.

"Corey's the pick and he's a very very confident pick for me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady is very confident in Sandhagen, citing Rob Font's age (36), short notice, and accumulated damage from recent fights like the Marlon Vera beating where Font was dropped multiple times. He believes Sandhagen's diverse striking and submission threat will overwhelm Font, and that Font's durability has declined. He predicts Sandhagen will either dominate to a 50-43 decision or become the first to knock Font out, possibly with a head kick or knee.

Sandhagen by KO/TKO or decision; first to knock out Rob Font
"I like San Hagen to finish Rob Fawn and be the first one to knock him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen due to his blend of striking and takedowns, plus a full camp preparing for Umar Nurmagomedov. He notes Font's short notice and history of being dropped (five times in two fights) as vulnerabilities. Cody believes Sandhagen can mix in takedowns and strike effectively, though he acknowledges Font's elite striking and volume. He also mentions betting Sandhagen by knockout at +225.

Sandhagen by KO +225; under 120.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I took sandhagen by knockout plus 225... it's the only bet I've made so far"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Daniel Levi is confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing his evolution into a well-rounded fighter with improved wrestling and durability. He notes Sandhagen's killer resume and recent performances against Song Yadong and Chito Vera as evidence of his growth. Levi believes Sandhagen's fight IQ and length will be key, and that he will avoid trading in the pocket with Font's dangerous jab. He sees Sandhagen as a future title contender and expects him to shine in the main event.

Mentions the line opened at -200 and is now -340, but does not recommend betting at that price. No prop bets or finishing predictions explicitly stated.
"I think Corey sandag is going to shine in the main event."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

James is very confident Sandhagen dominates. He thinks Sandhagen can do whatever he wants—strike, takedown, submit, or knock out Font. He believes Font's chin is done and predicts a knockout in the second or third round. He notes Sandhagen's dynamism and one-shot power.

Sandhagen by knockout
"Corey Sandhagen via knockout is my prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen has an unorthodox style that blends wrestling and striking, and he's made for five rounds. Font has a great comeback win over Yanez, but Sandhagen's style will be too unorthodox for Font to get going. Sandhagen eats damage well and counters effectively. The fight likely goes the distance, so over 4.5 rounds is my favorite prop, but Sandhagen gets his hand raised. The line is too wide to bet heavily, and there is value on Font at these odds.

over 4.5 rounds, value on Font at current line
"over four and a half will probably be my favorite uh prediction for this fight but I still think that sandhagen gets his hand raise line is just too wide for me to get you know ahead of myself"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Sandhagen's full camp and wrestling advantage. He notes Font's short notice and chin issues, but expects a competitive fight if it goes the distance. Paul leans towards Sandhagen by knockout, though he respects both fighters.

"I mean if this goes 25 minutes I can definitely see it being pretty competitive... but I see San Hagen knocking him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host picks Cory Sandhagen confidently, calling him a cerebral, diverse striker in his prime. He believes Sandhagen will pick Font apart with superior technique and defense. He notes Font is 36 and while dangerous, Sandhagen is a better mixed martial artist. He predicts a unanimous decision but does not rule out a head kick knockout. He recommends Sandhagen as a parlay piece and expects the line to rise.

unanimous decision; possible head kick knockout; line opened -256, now -312; parlay piece
"give me Corey sandhagen to take over this fight as it goes on I'll I'll say unanimous decision for Corey sandhagen"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 58 of 158 36% 73 of 177 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 128 of 280 45% 187 of 378 3 of 12 25% 0 0 7:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 69 46% 47 of 99 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:30
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 18 of 29 62% 55 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
5 Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 36 38% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 22 of 48 45% 29 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 58 of 158 36% 28 of 105 13 of 29 17 of 24 53 of 152 5 of 5 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 128 of 280 45% 84 of 226 16 of 23 28 of 31 107 of 241 2 of 3 19 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 69 46% 20 of 55 2 of 3 10 of 11 18 of 41 0 of 0 14 of 28
2 Cory Sandhagen 6 of 15 40% 4 of 10 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 18 of 29 62% 14 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Cory Sandhagen 20 of 56 35% 8 of 37 4 of 8 8 of 11 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 67 47% 17 of 48 6 of 9 9 of 10 32 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 13 of 38 34% 6 of 25 4 of 10 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 24 of 67 35% 19 of 59 2 of 4 3 of 4 23 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Cory Sandhagen 14 of 36 38% 6 of 22 5 of 9 3 of 5 10 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 22 of 48 45% 14 of 40 4 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-165), Vera (+140)

Round 1
The UFC knew what it was doing when it put this fight together, and made sure fans would appreciate it by moving it from the UFC Apex to an 18,000-seat arena in San Antonio. Bantamweight greatness looms, and Vera (20-7-1, 14-6 UFC) would like nothing more than to put Sandhagen (15-4, 8-3 UFC) away and possibly earn a crack at gold. “The Sandman” is no easy out, having never been stopped with strikes, so a back-and-forth, blood-and-guts battle may loom for the next 25 minutes. Referee Dan Miragliotta is in it for the long haul, and the fighters are ready to handle their business, electing to not bump fists before launching them at one another’s faces. Sandhagen leads off with several range-finding jabs and low kicks, and he punches into Vera’s raised hands. Sandhagen walks “Chito” down and kicks at his lead leg a few times, and Vera absorbs a one-two on the dome while holding off on retaliating. Sandhagen drives Vera back to the wall with a left, and Vera strings two jabs into a chipping kick. Sandhagen works low kicks into jabs, and Vera pushes forth a one-two when “Chito” chants echo throughout the building. Vera hand-fights as Sandhagen walks forward calmly, and he allows Sandhagen to score on him repeatedly. Sandhagen ducks a jab to loose a solid left hook, and Vera takes it on the chin and subsequently absorbs another. Sandhagen bears down on his man with a few punches and a head kick while Vera escapes, and Vera he swats away a few punches that zip at him. Sandhagen leaps at his foe with a jump knee, and Vera parries it and is forced to defend a takedown effort. Sandhagen smoothly trips Vera’s leg out and plants him on his seat, and he postures up and hammers Vera with punches and elbows. Vera closes his guard as he gets shoved to the wall with his neck trapped at the corner of the floor and the fence. Sandhagen pummels “Chito” with elbows, and Vera replies with a few on his back to split open a cut on the top of Sandhagen’s forehead. Sandhagen continues to bombard his downed adversary with elbows as Vera looks to kick him off, but the listless Vera blocks the majority of them and seems content to remain on his back. Sandhagen ends the round with several more pounding elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and Sandhagen is the aggressor right out of the gate. They trade front kicks, and Vera is backed up to the wall as Sandhagen opens up with a right hand. Vera aims a punch to the body, and he front kicks and chops at Sandhagen’s lead calf a few times to slow him. Sandhagen blitzes with a few uppercuts, and he secures a single-leg takedown and puts “Chito” on his back. Vera defends with a guillotine choke before he even hits his seat, and he releases it without burning his arms out as Sandhagen steps over to half guard. Sandhagen starts to drop down left hands and elbows as Vera is pinned to the floor, and his top control is smothering and frustrating for the Ecuadorian. Vera turns to his side as he eats elbows, and Sandhagen allows him to do that so that he can posture up and drill him with punches. Vera hooks a foot beneath his elbow to flirt with a heel hook, and Sandhagen lowers himself down and takes side control on the side to continue his attack. Vera turns once more, nearly giving up his back as he attempts to escape, and he leans back down when Sandhagen’s elbows start to have an appreciable effect. Sandhagen looks to isolate Vera’s right arm, but he cannot hold it as Vera slides out and explodes to his feet. Vera gets off a front kick to the chest, and he checks a calf kick. They trade jabs, and Sandhagen follows one with an uppercut that gets Vera’s attention. Sandhagen reaches his man with punches on the outside of the guard, and Vera misses when retaliating. Vera catches a body kick, and he lets it go when Sandhagen posts off his other arm and fights back up. Vera walks forward without throwing much in the way of offense, and Sandhagen dodges the strikes that come at him before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
“Chito” rushes to the center of the cage to start off, having dropped the first two rounds unquestionably. Vera does not throw as Sandhagen is active from a distance, and he finally chambers and fires a head kick that is blocked. Sandhagen replies with a few long jabs, and Vera answers that with a front kick to the sternum. Vera reaches a left hand over the guard, and it is one-and-done while Sandhagen switches stances constantly and prods with punches and kicks. A blocked from kick from Sandhagen causes him to fall over, and when he climbs back up, Vera meets him with a thudding calf kick that stuns Sandhagen momentarily. Vera stomps the front knee and reaches with his left hand, and he kicks the body. Vera stuffs an oncoming takedown and makes his foe pay with a front kick, but Sandhagen strings together a few punches and a body kick to respond. Vera drills his opponent with a one-two, and Sandhagen walks through it and snaps the head back with an uppercut. As Vera loops a left, Sandhagen changes levels but cannot complete the takedown. Vera pushes off and starts to walk Sandhagen down, and they trade right hands. Sandhagen swipes at him with a clean left hook, and Vera tries to give him one back but Sandhagen is faster and beats him to the punch. They both get off front kicks in an exchange, and Vera goes up high with a kick that slams into the shoulder. Vera jabs to the body, and Sandhagen’s looping uppercut finds its home again. Vera swings while Sandhagen fires punches at him, and they miss while Sandhagen’s rangier blows connect. “Chito” jumps forward with a front kick, and he stalks after Sandhagen and has his lead leg kicked for it. At the waning seconds, Vera jumps at his opponent with a knee, but Sandhagen is feet away at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and Sandhagen strikes first with a front kick, and he turns through with momentum to land a spinning back kick. Sandhagen punches his way forward with an uppercut, and he charges for a double. Vera stands him up and dings him with a knee, but Sandhagen tries again and fail once more. When they separate, Sandhagen gets off a few punches before ducking for a double, and Vera’s sprawl is excellent as he remains on his feet. Sandhagen digs a left to the liver and moves actively and frequently to not stand still in front of his opponent. Vera attempts to cut angles and back Sandhagen off, but “The Sandman” connects with several punches and has a flying knee bounce of Vera’s raised arms. Vera lands one single jab, and Sandhagen strings three punches and a low kick together – but the kick is checked. Sandhagen jabs, staying elusive and switching stances relentlessly. Vera cannot seem to lock him down or find the timing, and he swings with a left hook that Sandhagen dodges. Vera kicks the calf hard, and that kick is checked. Sandhagen swipes with a left hook, and Vera chains a few punches to the body up to a few to the head. Sandhagen jabs, switches stances, and jabs with the other lead hand, flustering “Chito” with his awkward movement and timing. Sandhagen loops a left over the guard, and he sits down on a low kick that Vera cannot defend. The crowd is extremely restless after the relative lack of action compared to its initial promise, as fans start whistling and holding up illuminated cellphones. Vera is similarly irritated, trying and failing to chase down and corner the Colorado native. Vera reaches his man with a front kick and a left hand, but Sandhagen is able to block the subsequent efforts. Vera spins with a kick before the horn, and the audience is not amused.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 5
The last round of this disappointing – from an action standpoint, not tactically – headliner begins, and Sandhagen is happy to pick up where he left off. Sandhagen pushes the pace a little with a few heavier jabs after Vera lands flush a few times, and he shoots for a takedown. Vera stuffs it and takes a knee square in the midsection. Vera is tripped out and tackled to the mat, and he tries to throw up upkicks and may have landed an illegal blow to a grounded Sandhagen in the process. Sandhagen fights off a high guard and submission setup, and he allows Vera to roll laterally so that he can lower himself into the guard. Sandhagen is comfortable taking top position, and Vera kicks him in the chest and gets away with another slapping foot to the downed Sandhagen’s face. Vera explodes to his feet at the midpoint of the final frame, and Sandhagen lines up several punches to back Vera off. “Chito” tosses out a half-hearted leg kick, and he turns to fire one to the body. Vera knocks Sandhagen back with two punches, but “The Sandman” is not concerned as he gets right back to pressuring the pressure fighter. Sandhagen keeps changing stances and jabbing and poking at Vera with feet and fists, and he dodges and parries the lumbering but looping punches that come at him. Vera jumps forward with a left hook, and Sandhagen replies in kind. Vera reaches at the end of a jabbing punch, only to be met with Sandhagen’s short combination. Sandhagen kicks high off the guard, and Vera spins with a kick to the ribs. Vera pressures, and he staves off a rushing double. Vera catches a kick and slams his foot into the body from an odd angle, and he takes Sandhagen from behind and pushes him to the wall. Vera connects with a solid elbow, and he pours it on with high kicks from both legs, swinging punches and kicks, and anything else he can muster. Instead of throwing this all during the first 24-plus minutes of the match, Vera saved it for one final, desperate effort, and Sandhagen blocks or dodges the worst of it. As Vera charges like a bull, Sandhagen points at him, and the last horn blows to put an end to the less-than-thrilling main attraction. In his post-fight interview, Sandhagen states that he would “feel slimy” if he asked for a title shot over Merab Dvalishvili, so he prepares a line and challenges the Georgian to a fight. If that comes together, we will be here for it. Next week, there is a break from the UFC – but there will be Fight Circus, so stay tuned for coverage on that – and we return on April 8 with UFC 287. We will also be for here for that, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Marlon Vera via Split Decision (47-48, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Sandhagen because he is younger, durable, and has a versatile striking style with sneaky power. He notes that Vera's recent wins came against older, declining fighters like Rob Font, Dominic Cruz, and Frankie Edgar, and that Sandhagen is a different challenge. He believes Sandhagen's weird movements and toughness will neutralize Vera's power, and that Vera's habit of losing early before finding a finish won't work against Sandhagen. He admits he has never correctly picked a Vera fight but thinks this is where Vera's luck runs out.

"I gotta go with Corey here because he is durable and I think that insane power of Cheeto is gonna matter as much on somebody like Corey because I don't see Corey stopping."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, arguing that while Sandhagen is the better overall fighter with more volume and movement, Vera is a 'moment winner' who can land big shots and sway judges. He notes Vera's ability to get outstruck but still win rounds by landing damaging blows, as seen in the Rob Font fight. Brady believes Vera has 25 minutes to find Sandhagen's chin and predicts a fourth-round knockout, though he acknowledges a close decision is possible.

Vera by KO/TKO in round 4
"I'm gonna take Vera here for the doll as a dog and say that either he does find the chin of Corey sandhagen at some point in this fight... I'll say vera for a fourth round knockout win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen based on pure volume and fast starting ability. He notes Sandhagen lands a high number of significant strikes (169 vs Yanez, 128 vs Dillashaw) and that Vera is a slow starter who often drops the first round. He believes Sandhagen will bank the early rounds and win a decision, though he acknowledges Vera's durability and late-round finishing ability. He suggests betting Sandhagen by decision to improve the line.

Sandhagen by decision; Sandhagen over 107.5 significant strikes; fight goes over 2.5 rounds
"I will go with Corey sanderhagen based on pure volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Connor sees Sandhagen as a heavily upgraded version of the opponents Vera has been beating (Rob Font, Dominick Cruz). He believes Sandhagen's durability, conditioning, adaptability, and elusive defense will be too much for Vera's 'anti-process' style. He compares it to Yoel Romero vs Robert Whittaker, suggesting Sandhagen is Vera's Whittaker.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen opened -163, currently -172; Vera opened +143, currently +141. Notes gamblers favor Sandhagen.
"I think Corey Sandhagen is Cheeto's Robert Whitaker, if we're sticking to the Yoel comparison."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Jacob picks Vera, noting that he was a former hater but converted after Vera beat Rob Font. He argues that Vera is excellent at making reads over time and capitalizing, and that Sandhagen is hittable because he stands in front of opponents and doesn't move his head. He thinks Sandhagen's toughness means he gets hit, and Vera's power at bantamweight is a serious threat. He predicts Vera will find a shot and finish Sandhagen, possibly by submission in the third round.

Vera by submission in round 3 (speculative, not a bet)
"I think it's going to be one of those Cheeto fights where it's going to look like Corey's winning he's winning he's winning oh my God Corey's knocked out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host believes Sandhagen is the best puzzle for Vera since his winning streak, citing Sandhagen's ability to keep up with Vera's cardio and put together a full MMA game. He notes Sandhagen is defensively responsible enough to avoid big strikes and can tie Vera up in the clinch if needed. He expects Sandhagen to get off his own game from distance and allow the judges to see it in his favor, predicting Sandhagen wins by decision despite possibly dropping a round or two.

"I think that Corey sandagan is the best puzzle for varus since he's been on this winning streak"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen over Vera, arguing that Sandhagen is much better than Vera's recent opponents like Cruz and Font. He highlights Sandhagen's diverse attack (leg kicks, body shots, takedowns) and toughness, believing he can avoid Vera's power and win a decision. He notes Vera's ability to find finishes but thinks Sandhagen's movement and durability will carry him.

"I'm going with Corey sandhagen over Marlon Vera... I think sandhagen's going to be chopping that leg early on front kicking the body jab into the body and moving mixing it up against Marlon Vera"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Zane picks Sandhagen because Vera is scary but has recent losses to Jose Aldo and Song Yadong. He notes Sandhagen is harder to track and predict than Font or Cruz, and Vera's clinch wrestling is less of a threat than Dillashaw's. He expects Sandhagen to be elusive enough to win, though Vera could steal rounds with damage.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen -172, Vera +141. Notes the line is slowly getting wider toward Sandhagen.
"I have to pick Sandhagen too. Vera is scary right now... but Sandhagen is dangerous and dynamic enough."
WIN vs Song Yadong
TKO (doctor stoppage) R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 94 of 222 42% 130 of 259 1 of 14 7% 0 0 3:47
Song Yadong 0 54 of 145 37% 130 of 224 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 52 36% 30 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:46
Song Yadong 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 21 of 52 40% 24 of 55 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:48
Song Yadong 0 15 of 44 34% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 29 of 63 46% 30 of 64 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:32
Song Yadong 0 13 of 48 27% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 55 45% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:41
Song Yadong 0 12 of 25 48% 45 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 94 of 222 42% 62 of 186 17 of 21 15 of 15 86 of 213 5 of 6 3 of 3
Song Yadong 54 of 145 37% 36 of 125 13 of 15 5 of 5 44 of 132 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 19 of 52 36% 10 of 43 7 of 7 2 of 2 18 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 21 of 52 40% 14 of 43 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 15 of 44 34% 11 of 39 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 40 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Cory Sandhagen 29 of 63 46% 21 of 54 3 of 4 5 of 5 27 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 13 of 48 27% 8 of 42 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 25 of 55 45% 17 of 46 5 of 6 3 of 3 22 of 52 0 of 0 3 of 3
Song Yadong 12 of 25 48% 8 of 21 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cory Sandhagen vs. Yadong Song
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-195), Song (+165)

Round 1
with top-five ramifications, serves as the only match between ranked competitors on this 13-fight billing. Sandhagen (14-4, 7-3 UFC) took nearly a year off after his failed bid for the interim 135-pound strap, while Song (19-6-1, 1 NC; 8-1-1 UFC) is a younger man on the rise at 24 years of age. Receiving the honor of reffing the final fracas of the night is Herb Dean, who laces up his running shoes to keep up with these two fist-first fighters. Before throwing down, the two slap hands and bump fists with the intention of keeping things on the up-and-up. Sandhagen starts out switching stances multiple times in the opening seconds, and he punches his way into a takedown attempt. He bowls Song into the wall, but there is no takedown to come from it. Song defends with a few knees up the middle, and one bumps into the cup. Sandhagen tells Dean he is good to go and does not want to lose position, and they do not break. Song pushes off with a pair of hooks, and gets backed with a jab to the body. Sandhagen spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the guard, and he falls to the mat. Song does not follow him, and he lets Sandhagen stand up so that he can drill him with a left hand. They clinch up, and Song elbows once to force a separation. Sandhagen bullies his way into a takedown effort, and Song bowls him over and puts Sandhagen on his back. Sandhagen plays guard off his back, setting up a possible submission, and then bailing on it all to stand up. “Kung Fu Kid” remains on his back, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke to force Sandhagen to lower himself to the ground. Sandhagen gets out of the sticky situation by wriggling out, and they tie up against the wire. Sandhagen elbows hard, and he ducks back right before two big punches reach him. Sandhagen winds up with a loud liver kick, and Song takes it flush without batting an eye. They trade jabs, and a fake takedown try forces a sprawl that makes Song fall to his knees. Sandhagen lets him up and starts piercing the guard with jabs, and he blocks the follow-up counters that fly his way. Another fake takedown draws an exaggerated defensive reaction from his opponent, and Sandhagen lets him up to jab his way to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The fighters are amped up to get back to it, and Dean clocks them in and has to step back fast. Song advances straight ahead, and Sandhagen is moving side to side while jabbing. Sandhagen leaps in the air with a knee that misses, and he gets struck with a straight right hand down the pipe. Sandhagen scores a low kick and keeps his jab in Song’s face, and Song jumps through it with a power left hand. Sandhagen snaps the head back with a jab, and Song sits down on a left hand that makes Sandhagen stagger back to the wall. Sandhagen gathers his thoughts and goes after another flying knee, but it is not there for him. He does throw to the head and body to mix things up as he gets his wits about him, and he changes levels to take Song down. Song scrambles ahis way upright again and makes his man pay with a short right hand, and they clank heads when coming together. Song grins with delight as an elbow from Sandhagen tears open a cut on the corner of his eye, and blood leaks down a little but does not seem to bother him. Sandhagen pushes in for a takedown, and crimson liquid starts flowing into the eye. Sandhagen rails his man with an elbow before breaking from the clinch, and Song’s eye is a busted mess. Sandhagen backs away and unloads with a liver kick, and he keeps jabbing until Song plods forward with a three-punch salvo. Song throws with fire, and Sandhagen just barely rolls through it and lands a pair of low kicks. “Sandman” dips and ducks the power punches that come at him, and he even lets a flying knee soar past him. Sandhagen plants a front kick on the chin and chains a leg kick into it, and Song smiles but does not connect with anything in response. Three punches from Song come up short, with his depth perception possibly struggling due to the plasma coating his eye. A clinch leads to an explosion from Song, who loads up on several big punches one after the other. Sandhagen responds with his own combination, and the knee pops Song in the chops right before the horn blares. The cut on Song’s eye could be a fight-ender, so it remains to be seen how the doctor evaluates it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
The doctor tells Dean to keep an eye on the cut, but he is letting the fight continue into the third round. Song walks right into a body kick, and he replies in kind but it has less impact. Sandhagen kicks the lead leg and escapes out the side when Song sits down on a counter, and both men block high kicks. Sandhagen remains active with low kicks, and he ducks a massive haymaker of a right hand and shoots in on a takedown. Song stuffs it and clubs him with a left hand, and Sandhagen grits his teeth and retreats. Their heads clash together as Sandhagen attempts another takedown, and Song stops it in its tracks and makes Sandhagen pay with a trio of powerful punches. Sandhagen answers him with a step-in knee, and Song eats it like Szechuan beef and keeps on forging ahead. Song swings and misses with a salvo, and Sandhagen slides back and jabs a few times to cause the cut to start bleeding again. Song punches his way forward, but Sandhagen is the one who tags him with a few jabs. Sandhagen takes for a takedown to get a reaction, and then actually attempts one. Song gets shoved back to the wall, and scarlet fluid covers his face and turns it a brilliant shade. Song stings Sandhagen with a left hand, only for Sandhagen to nail him with an elbow. A takedown try from “Sandman” is staved off, and he brushes off a striking array that zooms at him. Sandhagen has a kick pound into the guard, and he snaps out a jab that causes Song to spit blood out. Sandhagen skirts on the outer edge of the cage as Song tries to cut him off, and it allows him to stay at his preferred range. Song bowls forward throwing hammers, and Sandhagen slips them and pokes him back with a few jabs. Song is prepared for a takedown entry from his opponent, but he absorbs a few jabs that chain into a left to the body. Sandhagen gets a flying knee through the guard, and blood is positively streaming down Song’s face. Once again, the doctor will have to make a tough call.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 4
Dean is informed by the doctor that should any more damage come around the eye, he needs to call the fight to protect Song from permanent damage. Song is thankful to keep going, and he loads up on several power strikes including a body kick and several strikes to the body. A response of a body kick from Sandhagen and two punches open it again, and Dean is watching it very closely. Sandhagen goes up high with a kick, and Song blocks and counters. Sandhagen marches forward with jabs from both arms as he switches stances, and he kicks the body. Song catches it and powers through it to trip “Sandman” up and take him to the mat. Plasma flows freely on Sandhagen’s face and into his mouth, and he explodes back to his feet and gets pushed back to the wire. Sandhagen spins him around and trips Song out. Song climbs back up, but he takes a head kick when he does. Song wings haymakers and catches Sandhagen, but Sandhagen is quick and accurate with jabs and straight punches. Sandhagen targets the wrecked eye with impunity, and Song gives chase and barely registers that his eyebrow is nearly hanging off his head. Sandhagen mixes up jabs and kicks, and Song’s power punches are telegraphed and largely hitting air. Song smiles when he takes punishment, and even though he dodges a few punches, Sandhagen goes the body and head. A single from Sandhagen succeeds in getting Song down to his seat, and he grinds his elbow on the cut. Blood streams from Song’s face, covering the mat with a dark red pool beneath his head. Sandhagen postures up with a few elbows, and Song practically laughs at him, giving his best “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression while on his back, drenched in hemoglobin. The horn sounds, and he cannot see out of his eye when he stands up.
The cutman tries to tend to the gash, but it is beginning to swell and it appears to be the type that even the most “just bleed” physician could not allow to continue. The doctor, who cleared Song to fight in Rounds 3 and 4, informs Dean that he does not like what he is seeing from the massacred eye of the 24-year-old. Dean does not hesitate, and he waves the fight off after hearing this, to save the youngster from long-lasting harm that could develop further with five more minutes of brutality.
This is a gruesome but fitting end to a violent and sanguine evening, one that comes with a week off to process all that transpired over the last few weeks. The UFC will return in October, and when it does, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Yadong Song R4 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo leans Sandhagen primarily because of his five-round experience and ability to recover from bad rounds. He notes that Sandhagen is a fluid striker with good combinations and BJJ, but he lacks takedown volume. Angelo is not confident and thinks the odds are wide. He considers a plus points bet on Yadong.

Considers plus points bet on Yadong.
"i am going to lean corey here in the pick but literally because this is a 25 minute fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen to win by decision. He argues that Sandhagen is the better striker overall with higher volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute) and has fought much tougher competition (Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling). Brady notes that Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has excellent striking defense. He believes Song Yadong's power is a threat, but Sandhagen's durability and output should carry him to a decision win. Brady also mentions that this is Song's first five-round fight, which could be a factor. He is surprised by the public support for Song as a dog.

decision
"give me san hagen to win give me san hagen to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody agrees Sandhagen is the more refined fighter with better cardio and versatility. He highlights Sandhagen's wrestling improvements since the Sterling loss and his ability to maintain high output. Cody thinks Song's lack of five-round experience and tendency to slow down will be exploited. He calls Sandhagen a good top ticket play but not the most confident pick on the card.

"i gotta agree with all your points i think he's got more experience i think he's got more versatility when you watch the fights themselves he's got a lot of output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong at plus 175 odds, placing one unit on him. He believes Song has enough output to make his harder shots count against Sandhagen's volume, and that the fight could be close enough for Song's power strikes to sway judges. He notes Sandhagen's year off and potential ring rust, and thinks the odds should be closer. He respects Sandhagen but sees value in the underdog.

Bet one unit on Song Yadong moneyline at +175
"I took the odds on sonia dong here at plus 175. I mean i thought they were good odds on on a kid like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Jacob picks Yadong, comparing his style to Petr Yan's and noting that Yadong is faster and more powerful now at 24. He believes Yadong's speed and power will close the distance and land big shots, potentially knocking down Sandhagen. Jacob thinks Yadong is peaking at the right time and can win by decision or finish.

Bet under 4.5 rounds at plus money.
"i think this is song and dawn's time to shine man i think that he is looking and and getting peaking at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen is the master of distance and will make Song whiff, tiring him out. Sandhagen's footwork and in-and-out movement will keep him out of the pocket where Song's power is most dangerous. Sandhagen's cardio is superior for five rounds, and he has been training BJJ with Ryan Hall to add submission threats. Song's best path is leg kicks or an early knockout, but Sandhagen's style is a tough puzzle for Song at this stage. I expect Sandhagen to take over as the fight goes on and win a decision.

Round 4 or 5 decision for Sandhagen at -115 on FanDuel is a good target
"the pick is sandhagen I think we'll see him do solidwork from the outside really start to open up the layer that this fight goes I think he takes home a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul thinks Sandhagen's five-round experience against TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan is a huge advantage. He notes Sandhagen's durability and high output will be key, as Song Yadong is a counter puncher who will struggle with Sandhagen's volume. Paul believes Sandhagen will outwork Song over five rounds, though he acknowledges Song's power and youth make it not a lock. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds at plus money.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"i think sonia dong is a excellent talent that we're gonna see so much more from in the moving forward in the in his ufc run but i do think minus 200 on so on san hagen is is more …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen by decision. He acknowledges Song Yadong is an underrated prospect but notes Yadong has struggled against rangy, mobile strikers who switch stances, like Kyler Phillips and Casey Kenny. He believes Sandhagen is too good, too rangy, and too smart, and will take over as the fight goes on. He expects Sandhagen to lose the first round but win the last three or four rounds, with scorecards like 48-47 or 49-46.

"i'm gonna go with sand hagen decision win based on the last three rounds"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 149 of 270 55% 158 of 280 0 of 2 0% 1 1 1:09
Cory Sandhagen 0 169 of 445 37% 172 of 449 1 of 6 16% 0 1 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 37 of 85 43% 39 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Petr Yan 0 38 of 65 58% 40 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cory Sandhagen 0 45 of 113 39% 45 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 1 36 of 57 63% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Cory Sandhagen 0 37 of 86 43% 37 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
4 Petr Yan 0 36 of 67 53% 38 of 69 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 83 30% 26 of 84 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:03
5 Petr Yan 0 20 of 44 45% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 78 32% 25 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 149 of 270 55% 100 of 217 27 of 29 22 of 24 135 of 252 7 of 9 7 of 9
Cory Sandhagen 169 of 445 37% 118 of 389 28 of 32 23 of 24 168 of 443 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 19 of 37 51% 4 of 21 4 of 4 11 of 12 17 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 37 of 85 43% 21 of 68 6 of 6 10 of 11 36 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 38 of 65 58% 23 of 50 8 of 8 7 of 7 36 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 45 of 113 39% 30 of 95 9 of 12 6 of 6 45 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 36 of 57 63% 29 of 49 5 of 6 2 of 2 28 of 46 1 of 2 7 of 9
Cory Sandhagen 37 of 86 43% 29 of 78 4 of 4 4 of 4 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 36 of 67 53% 28 of 59 8 of 8 0 of 0 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 25 of 83 30% 20 of 77 4 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 20 of 44 45% 16 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 25 of 78 32% 18 of 71 5 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win a competitive decision. He notes both are great strikers, but Yan has the edge in boxing and can mix in takedowns. Sandhagen's takedown defense is a weakness (65% on paper, but was lower before the Dillashaw fight). Yan's wrestling and control time should be the difference. He expects a close fight but Yan edges it out.

"I'm going to say yan slightly edges it out uh it's close fight another close fight but a really good one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody is high on Petr Yan, calling him a 'terminator' with cardio, striking, and underrated wrestling. He notes Yan has scored takedowns in his last six fights, including against Aljamain Sterling and Jose Aldo. He thinks Yan's wrestling will be the difference against Sandhagen, who can be taken down. He suggests betting Yan live for a better price but is confident Yan wins.

"peter young's one of those trustworthy guys that if he loses okay it would take a herculean effort"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel picks Petr Yan to defend his title, calling him a top-five pound-for-pound fighter. He highlights Yan's well-roundedness, cardio, and ability to lull opponents into a false sense of security before dropping them. Daniel notes Yan's takedown success against Jose Aldo and Aljamain Sterling, and believes Sandhagen's clinch issues and tendency to give up his back will be exploited. He predicts a fourth-round TKO.

predicts fourth round TKO
"i'm going petery in by fourth round tko"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen's volume and output from distance will be Yan's kryptonite. Yan prefers to strike but Sandhagen throws 16.5 strikes per minute from outside and has the cardio to maintain it. Yan's takedowns are a threat, but he doesn't usually grapple heavily. Sandhagen wins a volume-based decision.

Sandhagen by decision.
"My pick is corey sandhagen i am picking against peyon once again and i did pick algo last time as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that playing Yan live is risky because Yan might get an early takedown and the line will move to -400. He thinks Sandhagen's only chance is if it's a pure striking match, but Yan's wrestling will be the difference. He sees Yan as the clear side.

"i think peter young is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan to win by TKO in the later rounds. He highlights Yan's grappling, especially when taking the back, and notes that Sandhagen gives up his back frequently. He thinks Yan will catch kicks, sweep, and take Sandhagen down. He questions Sandhagen's KO power, noting his recent finishes were against chinny opponents. He predicts Yan will be patient, chop at the legs, and eventually finish Sandhagen in the fourth or fifth round.

fourth or fifth round tko
"i'm gonna go over pyota yan here and i think i'll go with pyote yam by fourth round fifth round tko"
Marlon Vera - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 42 of 145 28% 52 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David MartĂ­nez 0 71 of 155 45% 86 of 173 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 5 of 39 12% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David MartĂ­nez 0 19 of 41 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
2 Marlon Vera 0 13 of 40 32% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David MartĂ­nez 0 21 of 43 48% 29 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
3 Marlon Vera 0 24 of 66 36% 25 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David MartĂ­nez 0 31 of 71 43% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 42 of 145 28% 26 of 113 11 of 21 5 of 11 41 of 142 1 of 3 0 of 0
David MartĂ­nez 71 of 155 45% 48 of 126 16 of 20 7 of 9 67 of 148 1 of 2 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 5 of 39 12% 0 of 30 2 of 4 3 of 5 5 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
David MartĂ­nez 19 of 41 46% 10 of 28 5 of 7 4 of 6 16 of 36 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Marlon Vera 13 of 40 32% 10 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 4 13 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
David MartĂ­nez 21 of 43 48% 13 of 33 6 of 8 2 of 2 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 24 of 66 36% 16 of 51 8 of 13 0 of 2 23 of 63 1 of 3 0 of 0
David MartĂ­nez 31 of 71 43% 25 of 65 5 of 5 1 of 1 30 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

Angelo picks David MartĂ­nez, criticizing Marlon Vera as a fighter who often does nothing and then complains about decisions. He highlights MartĂ­nez's movement, volume, and defensive stats, and believes he will outwork Vera. He warns against betting on Vera as a dog, calling it a trap.

"David Martinez is the pick. The odds reflect it, but I am still 100% sure so many people are going to fall into the most stereotypical Cheeto Vera as a dog trap."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

Big Brady picks David MartĂ­nez, citing Marlon Vera's apparent lack of effort in recent fights. He notes Vera has shown no urgency against top competition and lost to Ian Zahabi. MartĂ­nez is young, hungry, and fast, and Brady believes he will win by decision, continuing Vera's frustrating streak.

decision
"Give me David Martinez to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

Cody is concerned about Martinez taking a round off against Font and the high price. He sees split decision potential and notes Vera's durability and experience. However, he leans Martinez due to Vera's recent poor form and age, but suggests live betting Vera if he loses the first round.

"I end up with a David Martinez. Um, you know, if you're going to bet Marlon Vera, bet him after the first round because he is a really slow starter."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

Connor also picks Martinez but is more cautious, noting that Vera is a dangerous puncher who can hurt anyone. He points out that Martinez has not faced someone with Vera's power and could get knocked out. However, Connor believes Vera's tendency to let fights slip away and his declining athleticism will allow Martinez to win rounds with volume and pressure.

Vera's power; Martinez's untested chin; Vera's tendency to lose close fights; odds too wide
"I'm still going to pick Martinez just because I do think that Vera is increasing..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host considers this a dog-or-pass fight. MartĂ­nez is a heavy favorite at -294, but the host cannot bet him at that price. He notes that Vera has been passive and lost his last five decisions, and MartĂ­nez has home advantage. However, Vera is dangerous if he shows up, but the host hates betting on passive fighters. He passes.

"Martinez will probably win, but at these odds, you can't touch him. If you do want to bet this fight, you do have to take Ver. This is doggo or pass, but I hate betting on fighters that are very …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

James favors MartĂ­nez due to his superior footwork, kicking game, and volume, which should trouble Vera's forward pressure. He notes Vera's durability and power but believes MartĂ­nez can outpoint him over three rounds. James predicts a decision win for MartĂ­nez and suggests betting on MartĂ­nez by decision as a prop.

David MartĂ­nez via decision
"I got David Martinez to win this fight. I got him to win via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

The host picks David MartĂ­nez by decision, citing his slick striking, speed, and cardio. He believes MartĂ­nez will stick and move effectively, while Vera is reckless and a slow starter. He notes Vera's durability but expects MartĂ­nez to outland him and win a clear decision, similar to the Sean O'Malley fight but less dominant.

"Give me Martinez and Martinez by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

Paul likes Martinez's speed and kickboxing, and believes he passed the Rob Font test. He notes Vera's slow starts and recent decline, but is not excited about the -310 price. He expects a close decision but picks Martinez to get the job done.

"I'm picking Martinez. I'm not excited about laying minus 310 on him though."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
David MartĂ­nez

The MMA Guru picks David MartĂ­nez, stating that Marlon Vera has looked inactive and frustrated since his loss to Sean O'Malley. He praises MartĂ­nez's chin, explosiveness, low kicks, and movement, noting that he beat Rob Font. He believes Vera is done as a fighter and that MartĂ­nez will outwork him.

"I'm going to have to go with David Martinez over Marlon Vera here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
David MartĂ­nez

Zane picks Martinez because Vera is on a three-fight losing streak and his style is falling apart. He notes that Vera's process was always dysfunctional, relying on late surges, and now he lacks the speed and durability to make it work. Martinez showed toughness against Rob Font and has the volume and pressure to outwork Vera, though Zane acknowledges Vera's power is a threat.

Vera's three-fight losing streak; Martinez's win over Rob Font; Vera's declining speed and durability; odds too wide (Vera +260)
"I think I'm going to pick Martinez here."
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 1 56 of 152 36% 56 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aiemann Zahabi 0 81 of 152 53% 81 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 1 21 of 50 42% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aiemann Zahabi 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 24 of 62 38% 24 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 56 of 152 36% 30 of 107 14 of 26 12 of 19 55 of 150 1 of 2 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 81 of 152 53% 47 of 107 20 of 28 14 of 17 79 of 149 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 11 of 40 27% 3 of 25 4 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 20 of 37 54% 11 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 4 19 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 21 of 50 42% 13 of 35 4 of 9 4 of 6 21 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 24 of 44 54% 16 of 34 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 24 of 62 38% 14 of 47 6 of 8 4 of 7 23 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 37 of 71 52% 20 of 47 9 of 13 8 of 11 37 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-130); Vera (+110)

Round 1
On his first losing streak since 2018, “Chito” Vera (23-10-1, 15-9 UFC) might lose his place in line with another defeat. He will have to stave off the surging Ariel Helwani—that is, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (13-2, 7-2 UFC). The three-round bantamweight affair will draw the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and the fight begins with the athletes going right for it.
Vera is the aggressor, pitching a head kick while walking the Canadian down. Zahabi gets away with a low kick, and chants of his surname rain down in the building. Kicks continue to come from both sides as range-finders, but neither man drills the other with anything clean. Vera tries to go upstairs with his shin, and Zahabi blocks it well in time. Zahabi chambers and fires an inside leg kick to decent success, and he parries a jumping front kick that is the response. Vera stomps at the knee of his opponent, and he stutter-steps his way forward with a high kick. Vera then punches his way into another head kick effort, to which Zahabi chops his foe’s lead leg back. Left hooks are traded by the bantamweights, and Zahabi’s defensive shell protects him from the worst of the oncoming fire.
Zahabi splits the guard with a jab and follows with a right, and Vera greets him back with another calf kick. “Chito” reaches the body with a knee, and his low kick is soon to follow. Zahabi marches forward and lets his hands go, reaching his foe with a left but backing off when Vera starts to rev up his own engine. Vera chains a front kick into two leg kicks, one on either side of Zahabi’s front wheel. Zahabi rushes after the Ecuadorian, pulling back when Vera pump-fakes a knee. Vera sticks out an elbow that opens up Zahabi’s nose, which starts dripping down his face. “Chito” attacks with swinging kicks, and his knee is flashing at the right time to prevent Zahabi from bearing down on him. Zahabi bites down on his mouthpiece to engage, and he walks through a body kick to swing two big right hands. Vera backs him off with an elbow up top, and the close round ends with a Zahabi body kick.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 2
Between rounds, a replay shows that Vera is struggling with his ring finger on his left hand. When the bell starts the second stanza, adrenaline kicks back in and he closes his fist to throw it. Zahabi starts off aggressively, walking into a left hand so that he can bash Vera in the lead leg with a kick. Vera retaliates with a high kick that slaps off the guard, and he loops a right hand around the raised guard. Vera stomps down low with his kick and whips a left hand at the Canadian, and he catches a body kick to whip a pair of punches at his foe. Vera chains a front kick into a pair of punches, and he stans Zahabi up with a step-in elbow. When he tries for a knee, Zahabi intercepts him before getting air with a right hand. Body kicks land from both men, and Vera staggers his opponent with a piston-like jab. Zahabi bounces off the fence and rolls to grab the fence several times to pull himself upright, and Herzog appears to miss the fouls. Zahabi gets up, and Vera stalks him down like a predator following wounded prey.
Vera connects with a pinpoint accurate jab, and this time Zahabi does not flinch. Vera rips a left to the liver after going up top, and he has nothing to fear with absolutely zero offense coming back his direction. Vera whips a question mark kick up around the guard, and he strides through to drill Zahabi with long punches. Vera appears to let the damaged man off the hook, even with his Superman punch partially connecting. Vera scores a high kick and tries for a knee to the breadbasket, and Zahabi is back in full swing and swings with full force. Zahabi backs Vera up to the wall with looping punches, and Vera rebounds off the wall and appears no worse for wear. Vera ducks down to let a punch bang into the top of his skull, and he eats a knee to the body. The Canadian appears angered, letting loose with one-twos. Vera stifles him briefly with a kick to the knee, and when the horn sounds, they stand right in front of each mean-mugging until Herzog has to split them up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
Vera says hello in the final round with a head kick attempt. Zahabi drives him back with his own try, so Vera boots him with a hook kick. He then checks a kick coming his direction, and preemptively counters his opponent with a left hook right before Zahabi throws. Zahabi scores a hard low kick that draws a stance switch from the Ecuadorian, and the two trade it out from up close. Zahabi gains some space and kicks the side, and he keeps spinning with a back fist that misses by a mile. Vera showboats with the matador pantomime, but he has to keep his guard up because Zahabi is bearing down on him. Vera busts Zahabi’s nose back open with a flush knee, and it is no longer just dripping a wee bit. Zahabi chomps down on his gumshield and lets fly kicks and wide punches, and Vera rebounds off the wire and guard most of them to reset. Vera then scores a left hand to the temple, and he is met with a body kick. Vera intercepts his man with a check left hook, and Zahabi jacks him in the jaw with a front kick.
The two go shot-for-shot as they bash, bruise and bloody one another, with Vera looking for a step-in knee as Zahabi retaliates with an elbow. Vera pops his man with a left hand, spurring Zahabi into kicks from both legs. Vera kicks low, and he is caught upstairs with a right hand and further stung with a leg kick. “Chito” does not bat an eye and instead lashes out with his own offense, and Zahabi attacks his front leg repeatedly. Zahabi doubles up on straight left hands, and Vera’s low kick lands with a pop and slips a left hand around the guard. Vera is backed up from the offense of his adversary, with Zahabi blitzing forward and finally drawing blood on the bridge of Vera’s nose. Vera does not even register the damage, instead getting right back in Zahabi’s face with fists and feet. “Chito” just misses with an axe kick, and the fight could still be hanging in the balance with 15 seconds to go. Vera lands a leg kick, and Zahabi races forward and gets clipped. They both go nuts with one final brawl, hitting one another in the chin with everything they have left. The round ends, and both corners lift their fighters up in the air to celebrate a tight, brutal slugfest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Vera)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Vera)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Marlon Vera via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo slightly leans Chito Vera, noting his durability, volume, and ability to win in scrambles. He questions Zahabi's win streak, calling the Aldo win lucky and the Basharat win a robbery. He worries about Vera's slow starts in three-round fights and potential chin decline.

"I think I'm going to slightly lean Chito Vera as far as a pick is concerned."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady is unsure which version of Vera shows up. He thinks if Vera is motivated, he can win with his striking and elbows. He notes Vera always loses the first round but could steal rounds two and three. He picks Vera by close decision, acknowledging the fight has split decision written all over it.

"I'm going to take Vera to win this fight. I do think it's going to be a close fight... give me vera to win by a close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Cody picks Zahabi, citing Marlon Vera's slow starts and accumulated damage. He notes Vera has been hit over 1600 times in the UFC and is slowing down. Zahabi's high volume, precision, and methodical game plan will allow him to win rounds. Cody expects Zahabi to win by decision.

Zahabi by decision, over
"I got Zahabi just fighting the good methodical game plan, breaking him down, winning a decision. So Zahabi, Zahabi by decision, and the over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Connor picks Vera, but with hesitation. He notes that Vera is a slow-paced fighter who lets opponents rally early, then becomes more aggressive in later rounds. Connor thinks Zahabi will give Vera no choice but to get aggressive, and Vera's durability and power could pay off. However, he acknowledges that Vera's style doesn't deserve to win rounds and that Zahabi could be one of the fighters who works around it.

Odds: Vera opened at +210, currently +115; Zahabi opened at -250, currently -135.
"I think I'll go with Cheeto too. I mean, I just think, uh, you know, in a weird way, like he was, um, poised to make Aldo really very stressed out and uncomfortable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

James calls this a close fight and struggles to pick a winner. He favors Zahabi due to the Canadian crowd and potential judging bias, as seen in Zahabi's win over Jose Aldo. He notes Vera's durability and cardio advantages but questions Vera's recent form and damage taken. James predicts a split decision for Zahabi.

"I'm going to go with Aan Zahabi here. I'm going to go with Aan Zahabi. Like maybe robbery decision, you know, or maybe split decision uh and then the Canadian judges score it for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host thinks Vera's aggressive style will be too much for Zahabi, who prefers to sit back at distance and counter. He expects Vera to continuously push forward with aggressive output, leading to a late finish or a decision win.

late finish or decision
"I think his run ends here as the aggressive style of Vera should end up being too much for Zahabi to deal with."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Paul leans Zahabi, noting his volume and precision. He mentions Vera's slow starts and that Zahabi is Canadian, which could help in a close decision. Paul expects a close fight but gives the edge to Zahabi.

"Slightly into Zahabi here. you know, another fight that I expect to be close and competitive."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

The MMA Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Marlon Vera. He criticizes Vera's recent performances, calling him a punching bag and easy to game plan against. He praises Zahabi's team and game planning, and his toughness shown against Aldo. He predicts Zahabi will use takedowns and clean striking to win a clear decision, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Aiemann Zahabi getting this one done by decision, 30-27, clears the scorecards."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Zane picks Vera, but hesitantly. He notes that Vera's style is not built to win rounds, but he is dangerous and can rally in later rounds. Zane thinks Zahabi's physical limitations may catch up to him against elite talent, and Vera's power and durability could be the difference. However, he acknowledges Zahabi's impressive win over Aldo and his unique ability to fight off both front and back foot.

Odds: Vera opened at +210, currently +115; Zahabi opened at -250, currently -135.
"I'm just gonna pick Cheeto on the, like, I can't keep, I can't watch as a hobby against a really elite talent and see those moments where they just catch him out..."
CANCEL vs Mario Bautista
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 52 of 117 44% 67 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Marlon Vera 1 45 of 90 50% 59 of 104 2 of 14 14% 0 0 2:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 18 44% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 10 of 12 83% 22 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:20
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 18 of 40 45% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marlon Vera 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 26 of 59 44% 27 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 1 21 of 50 42% 23 of 52 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Deiveson Figueiredo 52 of 117 44% 15 of 67 15 of 22 22 of 28 46 of 108 6 of 9 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 45 of 90 50% 18 of 57 15 of 20 12 of 13 42 of 84 1 of 2 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 18 44% 2 of 10 1 of 1 5 of 7 6 of 14 2 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 10 of 12 83% 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 18 of 40 45% 1 of 17 5 of 9 12 of 14 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 14 of 28 50% 4 of 15 5 of 7 5 of 6 13 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 26 of 59 44% 12 of 40 9 of 12 5 of 7 23 of 55 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 21 of 50 42% 11 of 37 8 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Marlon Vera
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Figueiredo (-155), Vera (+130)

Round 1
Set in the “featured fight of the night” slot instead of the co-main event as would be reasonable, bantamweight strikers Vera (23-9-1, 15-8 UFC) and Figueiredo (23-3-1, 12-3-1 UFC) do not care much about card position as long as they can hit someone today. Vera has never been finished as a pro, while “Daico” has not lost since relocating to 135 pounds. “Fight of the Night” could be right around the corner, and referee Keith Peterson is will make sure no nonsense comes between them. Eager to throw leather, they ignore a glove touch and meet in the middle of the cage. Vera measures his range with a low kick, and he lands another on the calf to briefly disrupt the balance of his foe. Figueiredo fires one right back, leading Vera to punch the ball of his foot at Figueiredo’s knee. Figueiredo kicks the inner thigh and may have grazed the cup, but there is no pause. Figueiredo strikes his way into distance, and Vera uses a solid left hand to back him off. Figueiredo chops at the front leg, and he digs a right to the body and dips a punch to hit a takedown. Vera closes his guard and keeps tight wrist control to stop the Brazilian from striking him from above. Figueiredo frees his arms for a moment and drops down a heavy hammerfist, stacking Vera up so he can attempt to break out of the leg grip around his waist. Vera lifts his guard up higher, and this allows Figueiredo to land some ground strikes. Figueiredo stands back up to find a better way in, and Vera smacks him in the face with an upkick. This results in a furious scramble where Vera works his way back to his feet, and Figueiredo follows. Vera starts stalking the former flyweight king down, whipping out a high kick and protecting his jaw from a leaping left hand. Figueiredo winds up with a fierce low kick, and Vera flinches when Figueiredo fakes a second. Vera scores a jab and leaps forward with a knee, and Figueiredo scoops him off his feet and dumps him to the ground, landing in half guard and opening up with elbows right off the bat. Figueiredo drives home an elbow or two before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo

Round 2
The second round begins with a low kick from Figueiredo, and he checks a kick back his way and whips one to the ribs. Vera clashes forward with a left hand, and he doubles up on leg kicks. Figueiredo hops back and forth, swatting Vera with a left hook. Vera attempts a head kick, and Figueiredo ducks down to go for a takedown, so Vera recoils it. Vera pushes out front kicks to the leg, and Figueiredo retaliates with a liver kick. Vera overswings, and Figueiredo threatens a takedown, abandons it and comes over the top with a right hand. Vera sticks a front kick to the solar plexus, and he low kicks his way in with a jab. Figueiredo ducks low for a takedown, and the Ecuadorian shoves him away and delivers a heavy low kick as Figueiredo backs off. Vera pierces the guard with a left hand, and Figueiredo punches him in the body. Vera does not like it, giving him a rude gesture because he thought it landed low. Figueiredo attempts a takedown, and Vera hops away and resets with a jab. Figueiredo zings a left over the top, and they trade leg kicks. Vera scores a front kick after checking a kick, and Figueiredo connects with a right hook. Figueiredo doubles up on a jab and comes out firing with a right hand, and Vera is ready for it. They go tit-for-tat with strikes, neither having a serious advantage, and Figueiredo tries for a takedown that results in him banging his forehead on his opponent’s. Vera kicks his way into a tie-up, and he connects with a body shot before the bell. Figueiredo protests about something after the bell, and Peterson gets between them to usher them back to their corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
Figueiredo starts the last round aggressively, shooting in for a takedown that is rebuffed by his opponent courtesy of a guillotine. Vera kicks at him, and Figueiredo grabs the leg and hops back to the fence to defend it. Vera breaks free, and he flicks out a few jabs. Figueiredo jabs him right back, and he shrugs off a calf kick to deliver a similar response. Figueiredo stabs a right hand to the body, leans back and takes a low kick. Vera follows a ducking Figueiredo with an uppercut, and he blitzes forward to land a pair of punches. Figueiredo triples up on strikes, and Vera parries and escapes. Vera comes up short on a head kick, and Figueiredo kicks him in the ribs before aiming a right to the lower chest. Figueiredo aims a left to the body and another, and he has a front kick push him back and gets picked at from a leg kick. Figueiredo sits down on a straight right hand, shaking the Ecuadorian to his core and setting him on his seat. Vera climbs back up to his feet, and Figueiredo beans him with a right up top and a left to the ribcage. The Brazilian has a fire lit under his belly, aiming single accurate strikes that land flush, and Vera aims to quell that fire with his own body shot response. Figueiredo takes his time rather than selling out on offense, and he rifles a right hand to the sternum. Vera connects with a heavy leg kick, and Figueiredo does the same in response. Figueiredo ducks a looping left hand in pursuit of a takedown, and Vera stands him up and is caught with a right hand. Figueiredo shoots in on the hips, and Vera sprawls effectively, backs the Brazilian off and kicks him in the body. Vera jabs his way in and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes past his opponent, and Figueiredo flirts with two takedowns that both fail thanks to Vera’s stalwart defense. The attempts shut down Vera’s combinations, and “Daico” fakes another that makes Vera drop to his knees. Figueiredo grins and starts throwing hands in the pocket, catching Vera and eating a right hand back. Vera goes to the liver, and Figueiredo waves him on. This initiates a brief brawl, and they end up in a Thai clinch and think about knees. Vera finds another way in with a knee, and when he lands on the mat, Figueiredo times an uppercut to sting Vera right at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (29-28 Figueiredo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (29-28 Figueiredo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (29-28 Figueiredo)

The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Angelo picks Figueiredo because he expects him to use wrestling to neutralize Vera's durability and momentum. He notes Vera is a slow starter and Figueiredo only needs to win one of the first two rounds. He thinks Figueiredo saw Vera eat a huge knee and will avoid striking exchanges.

"I think divon figuro beats Cheeto"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady thinks this fight could go either way and has split decision written all over it. He notes both fighters are low-volume moment winners, but Vera has never been finished while Figueiredo has been finished in two of three losses. He mentions Vera often loses the first round, suggesting a live bet opportunity, but ultimately picks Vera to win by split decision.

Live bet on Vera after first round
"I'm going to take Vera here um this line has came down a little bit I think Marlin ver is like plus 150 last week"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Cody picks Marlon Vera as a slight underdog, citing Figueiredo's tendency to gas and Vera's pressure and pace. He notes that Figueiredo has low volume and relies on takedowns, but Vera is a larger bantamweight who scrambles well and can break him. Cody worries about Vera giving up the first round but thinks he can take over in the second and third. He also mentions that Figueiredo's last flyweight fight was poor and he's been out struck at 135.

"I'll take that slight Underdog shot on Marlon Vera as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel picks Chito Vera but with hesitation due to Vera's inconsistency. He notes that Vera performs best against shorter opponents and has the durability and toughness to outlast Figueiredo. However, he worries about Vera's tendency to not let his hands go. He thinks Figueiredo has slowed down on the feet and that Vera can win if he shows up, but acknowledges it's a hit-or-miss proposition.

"I'm gonna pick Chito Vera to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo's overall style will triumph. He will use calf kicks to open up takedowns and land enough damage to grind out a decision win.

"I think Figaro's overall style will allow him to Triumph I think he'll utilize a lot of calf kicks to eventually open up his takedowns and I think he'll be able to land enough damage and grind this fight all …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Paul picks Deiveson Figueiredo, noting that Vera gives up first rounds and in a three-round fight that's hard to overcome. He thinks Figueiredo can mix in wrestling and win the first two rounds. Paul acknowledges Vera's pressure could break Figueiredo but leans toward the former champion's early output. He also mentions the line has moved and that Vera was a bigger underdog earlier.

"I'm going to side with uh figgy um ever so slightly here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

The MMA Guru picks Deiveson Figueiredo over Marlon Vera, believing Figueiredo is a level above in striking and will mix in grappling. He notes Vera's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He expects Figueiredo to control the first two rounds on the ground and win a 29-28 decision. He mentions Figueiredo's improved cardio at bantamweight.

decision
"I am going to go of davidon figero over Maron Vera I think figero is pretty [ __ ] good"
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 230 of 356 64% 232 of 358 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 0 89 of 241 36% 89 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 27 of 36 75% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean O'Malley 0 51 of 83 61% 51 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 46 34% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean O'Malley 0 35 of 58 60% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 0 17 of 54 31% 17 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean O'Malley 0 56 of 84 66% 57 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean O'Malley 0 61 of 95 64% 62 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 230 of 356 64% 150 of 268 61 of 68 19 of 20 227 of 352 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 89 of 241 36% 41 of 165 14 of 35 34 of 41 85 of 235 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 27 of 36 75% 7 of 14 10 of 12 10 of 10 27 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 9 of 21 42% 1 of 7 1 of 5 7 of 9 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 51 of 83 61% 36 of 66 11 of 12 4 of 5 51 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 46 34% 7 of 29 0 of 5 9 of 12 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean O'Malley 35 of 58 60% 21 of 43 13 of 14 1 of 1 35 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 17 of 54 31% 7 of 39 4 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Sean O'Malley 56 of 84 66% 42 of 70 11 of 11 3 of 3 56 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 26 of 73 35% 15 of 56 5 of 11 6 of 6 26 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Sean O'Malley 61 of 95 64% 44 of 75 16 of 19 1 of 1 58 of 91 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 21 of 47 44% 11 of 34 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 43 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo picks Marlon Vera as a dog, noting that underdogs have won five of seven main events in 2024. He thinks Vera's durability and power will be key, as O'Malley is a counter striker who may not engage. He also mentions the Miami crowd may favor Vera. He suggests betting the over on rounds.

Over on rounds (hoping for 3.5 round line) is the best play.
"I am going to pick the dog I opened up this whole video talking about five of the seven Main Event dogs won this year"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by decision, but is not feeling great about it. He notes that O'Malley is the better striker with more volume and accuracy, but worries about the later rounds as O'Malley has never been past three rounds. He believes Vera needs a knockout to win, and O'Malley should do enough to win a decision.

win by decision
"I'm taking Al here by decision I I I don't feel great about it to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody believes O'Malley has improved significantly since the first fight, especially in managing space and distance. He thinks O'Malley will win on volume, similar to the Chris Moutinho fight, but acknowledges that Vera is durable and could come on late. He respects Vera but sticks with O'Malley as the pick, though he won't bet the moneyline.

Vera round 4 (+2200), Vera round 5 (+3000)
"I'm still picking om Ali I think he wins on volume I think it's going to be relatively close and probably closer than the money line suggest"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel leans towards O'Malley to defend his belt, but he has significant concerns about O'Malley's durability and cardio. He notes that O'Malley will likely light up Vera early, but worries that O'Malley may gas out from beating on Vera, allowing Vera to take over late. Daniel references O'Malley's fatigue in the second round against Yan and Vera's proven durability and finishing ability. He also mentions that Vera's camp issues don't sway him. Ultimately, he picks O'Malley but calls it a 'dog or pass' betting situation.

"I'm leaning towards sha Ali but from a betting perspective right now plus 240 plus 250 I mean listen man like I said if Cheeto can take this ass whooping up front make it a dirty fight like who knows"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that O'Malley has improved his footwork and ability to cut angles. He notes that O'Malley's cerebral approach allows him to set traps, as he did against Aljamain Sterling. Vreeland argues that Vera fights by downloading information and then exploding, but O'Malley controls what Vera sees. He believes Vera's habit of giving up early rounds is dangerous against a finisher like O'Malley. Vreeland concludes that O'Malley is the better striker, longer, more explosive, and younger.

"Shaan Ali is the Chinese government he decides what you download."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley, noting that Vera is essentially the same fighter as in their first fight while O'Malley has improved significantly. He highlights O'Malley's improved footwork and ability to cut angles, as seen in the Aljamain Sterling fight. Fox also praises O'Malley's cerebral game, setting traps and controlling what his opponent sees. He believes Vera gives up early rounds and then has to press, which plays into O'Malley's hands. Fox is confident that O'Malley's striking, length, and youth will lead to a win.

Fox picks under 4.5 rounds at +125, believing the fight ends inside the distance.
"I think Ali takes care of Vera especially with Vera giving up rounds as he will."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is the better technical striker with great fight IQ and trap-setting ability. He showed discipline and patience in his win over Sterling. However, Vera has never been knocked down in the UFC and is a slow starter who thrives in five-round fights. O'Malley may not get the early knockout, and if Vera finds his groove late, it could be competitive. I still pick O'Malley to win by decision, as his striking wizardry should allow him to outwork Vera over 25 minutes. I am passing on betting this fight due to the -300 line and Vera's durability.

O'Malley by decision, possible live bet on Vera if O'Malley doesn't finish early
"my prediction is still Shan I believe his Wizardry in the Striking I believe his game planning and ability to execute it will allow him to put together a good enough game plan to outwork Marlin ver who gets caught …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Paul highlights Vera's slow-starting nature but five-round cardio and durability. He notes that O'Malley has not been tested in late rounds and that Vera's pressure and toughness will allow him to take over in rounds 3-5. He also points to a trend of underdogs winning main events recently and Vera's life-changing motivation.

Vera round 4 (+2200), Vera round 5 (+3000)
"I'll take that Underdog in the main event looking at om Ali as well not to discredit him but prior to that Marlin Vera fight he had effectively beaten terion wear and um Andre Suk matath Jose konz and Eddie …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, predicting a boring fight where O'Malley uses low kicks and range to outpoint Vera. He argues O'Malley's feints are more dangerous because he can actually land the strikes he feints. He believes Vera will struggle to land his power shots and O'Malley will win a clear decision, possibly with a robbery if close. He notes O'Malley's underrated chin and better movement in the larger cage.

decision
"I think om Al is going to be able to pick him at range and I think we're going to see Maron Vera stink up the performance"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 141 of 251 56% 141 of 251 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 113 of 246 45% 113 of 246 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 0 49 of 84 58% 49 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 45 of 91 49% 45 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 53 of 101 52% 53 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 30 of 84 35% 30 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 141 of 251 56% 109 of 212 9 of 14 23 of 25 138 of 246 3 of 4 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 113 of 246 45% 53 of 177 20 of 28 40 of 41 111 of 244 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 39 of 66 59% 27 of 51 3 of 5 9 of 10 38 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 38 of 71 53% 14 of 44 8 of 11 16 of 16 38 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 49 of 84 58% 37 of 71 2 of 3 10 of 10 49 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 45 of 91 49% 23 of 64 7 of 11 15 of 16 45 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 53 of 101 52% 45 of 90 4 of 6 4 of 5 51 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 30 of 84 35% 16 of 69 5 of 6 9 of 9 28 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Marlon Vera
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-198), Munhoz (+164)

Round 1
The UFC made the best of a rough situation when Henry Cejudo withdrew from this matchup against Vera (20-8-1, 14-7 UFC). With about a month to prepare, Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC; 10-7, 2 NC UFC) is more than ready to rise to the occasion and battle it out tooth-and-nail for 15 hard minutes. Neither man has ever been finished, so referee Herb Dean could be in it for the long haul. These two action-packed bantamweights meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Vera immediately takes the center of the cage to lord over it. Munhoz strikes first with a body kick, and he chains a leg kick into it. Vera keeps his hands high but Munhoz gets a right hand in, and the two end up clashing shins at the same time. Vera catches a kick and knocks Munhoz down to the ground, and he nearly lands an illegal soccer kick but pulls back at the last second. Munhoz gets right back up, and he starts chasing Vera with looping punches. Munhoz mixes in leg kicks, and Vera pierces the guard with a sharp jab. Both fighters trade front kicks, and Munhoz chips away at him with strikes to the legs and body. Vera ignores a front kick to the midsection and blocks a right hand, and Munhoz comes at him with a head kick that slides off the raised guard. Vera pops out another jab, and he parries the strikes from Munhoz that come his way. Vera connects with a hefty leg kick, and he snaps the head back with a straight left hand. Vera’s jab intercepts “The Young Punisher” crashing the pocket, and he hops back to avoid a body shot. Munhoz shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and Vera stifles it and responds with a jab and a leg kick. Munhoz’ nose is already starting to redden up, and Vera releases a low kick and a one-two. Munhoz charges, and Vera counters him with a knee that rebounds off the forearm of his opponent. Vera strings together three punches that do not find their home, but a jab does when Munhoz chops at his lead heel. Vera lets go with his hands in a short exchange, and Munhoz connects with two thudding left hands over the top. Munhoz fires off a right hook, and Vera replies with a front kick that grazes past his cheek. Munhoz swarms with two punches before changing stances and swinging with one more. Vera lands a leg kick and continues damaging Munhoz’ nose with jabs, and he stops Munhoz from backing him off thanks to his jab. Vera digs a left to the body, and he keeps his jab flowing. Munhoz elects to mimic this with three straight jabs, and leg kicks come from both fighters. Vera checks a leg kick and darts away when Munhoz throws hands, and Vera resets with a front kick and a swatting left hook. The close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 2
The bantamweights come together in the middle of the cage, with Munhoz pushing out an immediate front kick. Vera slips punches and counters, and Munhoz lands another front kick to the body. Vera misses a head kick by a few inches, and he buzzes the hair with a second kick. Munhoz looses a big right hand, and Vera rolls with it and counters with a jab. Vera goes up high with a kick, and Munhoz swings a left hook that grazes past the target. Vera jabs a few times and parries a front kick to the side, and he connects with a thumping leg kick. Munhoz spams front kick, and Vera stands him up with a left hook on the inside. Vera peppers the nose with another sharp jab, and Munhoz lashes back with a strong leg kick and a left hook. Vera tanks it and kicks back on the lead wheel, and he paws out three punches that bounce off the gloves. Munhoz misses with a two-punch string, and he lands on a second effort. The right hands land from Munhoz, and Vera evades a spinning kick with ease. Vera gets in a short left hook, and he walks through a few leg kicks and has punches blocked. Munhoz plants a right hand down the pipe, and he backs off as he eats a body shot and protects his mug from a head kick. Munhoz plows forward and connects with a left, and they get off jabs at the same time. Munhoz follows it with a left hook, and they decide to dish out leg kicks one after the other. Vera nails his foe with a right hand, and Munhoz shakes it off and rubs his nose. Munhoz lands two straight right hands that Vera takes flush without batting an eye, and they swing their fists but end up missing with their exchanges. Vera slides a punch to land a left, and Munhoz whips a right hand over the top. Vera checks a leg kick and snaps out a jab, and a left and a right knock him back a few steps. Vera looks to catch a low kick and counter with a right hand, and he works the body as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 3
They clap hands to get started with one final round, and they both swing leg kicks at the same time. Vera checks a kick and strikes with his jab, and Dean tells him to watch his fingers. Vera connects with a left to the body and a right to the head, and he clubs Munhoz with a right hand as Munhoz comes his way. Munhoz fires back when Vera lands on him, and he splits the guard with a right hand. The two hand-fight, and Vera tries to check a low kick. Vera stings Munhoz with a jab, and a second makes Munhoz blink it out. Vera goes with a left to the ribs and a right up top, and Munhoz considers taking the fight down as he is stunned. Vera continues to crush Munhoz’ nose with his jab, and Munhoz is fighting back but it is starting to get to him. Munhoz absorbs a flush one-two, and he swings for the fences only to get nailed with a left hook. Munhoz is there every step of the way, but his face is starting to show serious damage. Vera hammers a left to the body that bends Munhoz over, but Munhoz gathers himself and blitzes forward. Vera stands firm and fires out his piston-like jab, and Munhoz has no answer to it other than to try to get his own going as well. Vera checks a kick and puts three punches on the chin of his opponent, and Munhoz is tough but gets stung with two vicious lefts. Munhoz takes a flush jab and shakes his head only to crash forward, and even though he lands, Vera is hitting him much harder. Vera brings a high kick up top for good measure, and he jabs up Munhoz’ face. Vera blocks two punches and lands a right, and Munhoz slips the follow-up and kicks the body twice. Vera nods at him and wings a left hand, and Munhoz shoulder-rolls and counters. Vera plants his fist on the Brazilian’s chin three times in rapid succession, and he ignores a counter. Vera starts showboating, and he steps back as Munhoz spins with two unsuccessful kicks. Vera hoots, and he drops his hands and puts them behind his back. Before Munhoz can reach him, the razor-close matchup comes to a close. It could be anybody’s fight, and judges will have their hands full scoring the first two rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo picks Marlon Vera despite acknowledging red flags: Vera is overrated, has been outstruck in his last four fights, and lacks urgency. However, he believes Pedro Munhoz's orthodox striking style plays into Vera's strengths, as Vera excels against fighters who stand in front of him. He also notes Munhoz is on short notice. He has Vera in a parlay.

Parlay with Zhang Weili
"Cheeto Vera is the pick I have money on him I've got him in a nice little parlay... Pedro Munoz is going to come forward work that low leg kick and stand in front of Cheeto and cheeto's gonna blast …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz as a slight underdog, expecting a split decision. He notes Vera is a slow starter who loses first rounds and has been outstruck in four of his last five fights. Munhoz has never been knocked out or knocked down, and Brady believes the fight will be close, favoring the dog.

win by decision
"I'll take uh the dog and Pedro Munoz to pull it off and I'll take Munoz to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody highlights Vera's notorious slow starts, often losing the first round, which is problematic in a three-round fight. Munhoz has a good chin and Jiu-Jitsu, and could capitalize if Vera starts slow. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round if he loses it, but officially picks Munhoz as a live underdog.

live bet Vera after round 1
"for me personally yeah I'm gonna have to take some underdogs here and there so yeah so the official pick will be Pedro Munoz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, believing Vera will push the pace in the second and third rounds and win a decision. He notes that Vera struggles against longer fighters or those who put him on his back, but here Vera is the longer man. Levi thinks Vera will use front kicks and knees, and that Munoz slows down as fights progress. He also mentions that neither fighter has been finished, but both are hittable, so a finish is possible.

Vera by decision; possibility of first finish for either fighter
"I think Vera is going to push the pace second third rounds and get this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Lucrative James picks Marlon Vera to win, possibly by finish, despite Munhoz never being finished in 28 fights. He notes Vera's reach and height advantages, and believes Munhoz's durability may be declining. He expects Vera to pull away in rounds 2 and 3.

"I think Vera is going to win the fight I think he could even finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Vera is the more diverse striker and should land damaging blows as the fight goes on. However, Munhoz is durable and can win early rounds with forward pressure. The over 2.5 rounds is the best bet as Vera likely wins rounds 2 and 3 by decision. The moneyline is not worth it due to Vera's slow starts.

over 2.5 rounds
"I still lean chitovera here but I think you know taking the over two and a half is probably the best way to go about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz over Marlon Vera. He argues Vera relies on finishing opponents late, but Munhoz never gets wobbled, never slows down, and has fought the who's who of bantamweight. He notes Vera struggles in three-round fights and Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure will annoy Vera. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Munhoz.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Pedro Munoz bad decision 29-28"
LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 58 of 158 36% 73 of 177 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 128 of 280 45% 187 of 378 3 of 12 25% 0 0 7:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 69 46% 47 of 99 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:30
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 18 of 29 62% 55 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
5 Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 36 38% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 22 of 48 45% 29 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 58 of 158 36% 28 of 105 13 of 29 17 of 24 53 of 152 5 of 5 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 128 of 280 45% 84 of 226 16 of 23 28 of 31 107 of 241 2 of 3 19 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 69 46% 20 of 55 2 of 3 10 of 11 18 of 41 0 of 0 14 of 28
2 Cory Sandhagen 6 of 15 40% 4 of 10 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 18 of 29 62% 14 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Cory Sandhagen 20 of 56 35% 8 of 37 4 of 8 8 of 11 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 67 47% 17 of 48 6 of 9 9 of 10 32 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 13 of 38 34% 6 of 25 4 of 10 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 24 of 67 35% 19 of 59 2 of 4 3 of 4 23 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Cory Sandhagen 14 of 36 38% 6 of 22 5 of 9 3 of 5 10 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 22 of 48 45% 14 of 40 4 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-165), Vera (+140)

Round 1
The UFC knew what it was doing when it put this fight together, and made sure fans would appreciate it by moving it from the UFC Apex to an 18,000-seat arena in San Antonio. Bantamweight greatness looms, and Vera (20-7-1, 14-6 UFC) would like nothing more than to put Sandhagen (15-4, 8-3 UFC) away and possibly earn a crack at gold. “The Sandman” is no easy out, having never been stopped with strikes, so a back-and-forth, blood-and-guts battle may loom for the next 25 minutes. Referee Dan Miragliotta is in it for the long haul, and the fighters are ready to handle their business, electing to not bump fists before launching them at one another’s faces. Sandhagen leads off with several range-finding jabs and low kicks, and he punches into Vera’s raised hands. Sandhagen walks “Chito” down and kicks at his lead leg a few times, and Vera absorbs a one-two on the dome while holding off on retaliating. Sandhagen drives Vera back to the wall with a left, and Vera strings two jabs into a chipping kick. Sandhagen works low kicks into jabs, and Vera pushes forth a one-two when “Chito” chants echo throughout the building. Vera hand-fights as Sandhagen walks forward calmly, and he allows Sandhagen to score on him repeatedly. Sandhagen ducks a jab to loose a solid left hook, and Vera takes it on the chin and subsequently absorbs another. Sandhagen bears down on his man with a few punches and a head kick while Vera escapes, and Vera he swats away a few punches that zip at him. Sandhagen leaps at his foe with a jump knee, and Vera parries it and is forced to defend a takedown effort. Sandhagen smoothly trips Vera’s leg out and plants him on his seat, and he postures up and hammers Vera with punches and elbows. Vera closes his guard as he gets shoved to the wall with his neck trapped at the corner of the floor and the fence. Sandhagen pummels “Chito” with elbows, and Vera replies with a few on his back to split open a cut on the top of Sandhagen’s forehead. Sandhagen continues to bombard his downed adversary with elbows as Vera looks to kick him off, but the listless Vera blocks the majority of them and seems content to remain on his back. Sandhagen ends the round with several more pounding elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and Sandhagen is the aggressor right out of the gate. They trade front kicks, and Vera is backed up to the wall as Sandhagen opens up with a right hand. Vera aims a punch to the body, and he front kicks and chops at Sandhagen’s lead calf a few times to slow him. Sandhagen blitzes with a few uppercuts, and he secures a single-leg takedown and puts “Chito” on his back. Vera defends with a guillotine choke before he even hits his seat, and he releases it without burning his arms out as Sandhagen steps over to half guard. Sandhagen starts to drop down left hands and elbows as Vera is pinned to the floor, and his top control is smothering and frustrating for the Ecuadorian. Vera turns to his side as he eats elbows, and Sandhagen allows him to do that so that he can posture up and drill him with punches. Vera hooks a foot beneath his elbow to flirt with a heel hook, and Sandhagen lowers himself down and takes side control on the side to continue his attack. Vera turns once more, nearly giving up his back as he attempts to escape, and he leans back down when Sandhagen’s elbows start to have an appreciable effect. Sandhagen looks to isolate Vera’s right arm, but he cannot hold it as Vera slides out and explodes to his feet. Vera gets off a front kick to the chest, and he checks a calf kick. They trade jabs, and Sandhagen follows one with an uppercut that gets Vera’s attention. Sandhagen reaches his man with punches on the outside of the guard, and Vera misses when retaliating. Vera catches a body kick, and he lets it go when Sandhagen posts off his other arm and fights back up. Vera walks forward without throwing much in the way of offense, and Sandhagen dodges the strikes that come at him before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
“Chito” rushes to the center of the cage to start off, having dropped the first two rounds unquestionably. Vera does not throw as Sandhagen is active from a distance, and he finally chambers and fires a head kick that is blocked. Sandhagen replies with a few long jabs, and Vera answers that with a front kick to the sternum. Vera reaches a left hand over the guard, and it is one-and-done while Sandhagen switches stances constantly and prods with punches and kicks. A blocked from kick from Sandhagen causes him to fall over, and when he climbs back up, Vera meets him with a thudding calf kick that stuns Sandhagen momentarily. Vera stomps the front knee and reaches with his left hand, and he kicks the body. Vera stuffs an oncoming takedown and makes his foe pay with a front kick, but Sandhagen strings together a few punches and a body kick to respond. Vera drills his opponent with a one-two, and Sandhagen walks through it and snaps the head back with an uppercut. As Vera loops a left, Sandhagen changes levels but cannot complete the takedown. Vera pushes off and starts to walk Sandhagen down, and they trade right hands. Sandhagen swipes at him with a clean left hook, and Vera tries to give him one back but Sandhagen is faster and beats him to the punch. They both get off front kicks in an exchange, and Vera goes up high with a kick that slams into the shoulder. Vera jabs to the body, and Sandhagen’s looping uppercut finds its home again. Vera swings while Sandhagen fires punches at him, and they miss while Sandhagen’s rangier blows connect. “Chito” jumps forward with a front kick, and he stalks after Sandhagen and has his lead leg kicked for it. At the waning seconds, Vera jumps at his opponent with a knee, but Sandhagen is feet away at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and Sandhagen strikes first with a front kick, and he turns through with momentum to land a spinning back kick. Sandhagen punches his way forward with an uppercut, and he charges for a double. Vera stands him up and dings him with a knee, but Sandhagen tries again and fail once more. When they separate, Sandhagen gets off a few punches before ducking for a double, and Vera’s sprawl is excellent as he remains on his feet. Sandhagen digs a left to the liver and moves actively and frequently to not stand still in front of his opponent. Vera attempts to cut angles and back Sandhagen off, but “The Sandman” connects with several punches and has a flying knee bounce of Vera’s raised arms. Vera lands one single jab, and Sandhagen strings three punches and a low kick together – but the kick is checked. Sandhagen jabs, staying elusive and switching stances relentlessly. Vera cannot seem to lock him down or find the timing, and he swings with a left hook that Sandhagen dodges. Vera kicks the calf hard, and that kick is checked. Sandhagen swipes with a left hook, and Vera chains a few punches to the body up to a few to the head. Sandhagen jabs, switches stances, and jabs with the other lead hand, flustering “Chito” with his awkward movement and timing. Sandhagen loops a left over the guard, and he sits down on a low kick that Vera cannot defend. The crowd is extremely restless after the relative lack of action compared to its initial promise, as fans start whistling and holding up illuminated cellphones. Vera is similarly irritated, trying and failing to chase down and corner the Colorado native. Vera reaches his man with a front kick and a left hand, but Sandhagen is able to block the subsequent efforts. Vera spins with a kick before the horn, and the audience is not amused.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 5
The last round of this disappointing – from an action standpoint, not tactically – headliner begins, and Sandhagen is happy to pick up where he left off. Sandhagen pushes the pace a little with a few heavier jabs after Vera lands flush a few times, and he shoots for a takedown. Vera stuffs it and takes a knee square in the midsection. Vera is tripped out and tackled to the mat, and he tries to throw up upkicks and may have landed an illegal blow to a grounded Sandhagen in the process. Sandhagen fights off a high guard and submission setup, and he allows Vera to roll laterally so that he can lower himself into the guard. Sandhagen is comfortable taking top position, and Vera kicks him in the chest and gets away with another slapping foot to the downed Sandhagen’s face. Vera explodes to his feet at the midpoint of the final frame, and Sandhagen lines up several punches to back Vera off. “Chito” tosses out a half-hearted leg kick, and he turns to fire one to the body. Vera knocks Sandhagen back with two punches, but “The Sandman” is not concerned as he gets right back to pressuring the pressure fighter. Sandhagen keeps changing stances and jabbing and poking at Vera with feet and fists, and he dodges and parries the lumbering but looping punches that come at him. Vera jumps forward with a left hook, and Sandhagen replies in kind. Vera reaches at the end of a jabbing punch, only to be met with Sandhagen’s short combination. Sandhagen kicks high off the guard, and Vera spins with a kick to the ribs. Vera pressures, and he staves off a rushing double. Vera catches a kick and slams his foot into the body from an odd angle, and he takes Sandhagen from behind and pushes him to the wall. Vera connects with a solid elbow, and he pours it on with high kicks from both legs, swinging punches and kicks, and anything else he can muster. Instead of throwing this all during the first 24-plus minutes of the match, Vera saved it for one final, desperate effort, and Sandhagen blocks or dodges the worst of it. As Vera charges like a bull, Sandhagen points at him, and the last horn blows to put an end to the less-than-thrilling main attraction. In his post-fight interview, Sandhagen states that he would “feel slimy” if he asked for a title shot over Merab Dvalishvili, so he prepares a line and challenges the Georgian to a fight. If that comes together, we will be here for it. Next week, there is a break from the UFC – but there will be Fight Circus, so stay tuned for coverage on that – and we return on April 8 with UFC 287. We will also be for here for that, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Marlon Vera via Split Decision (47-48, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Sandhagen because he is younger, durable, and has a versatile striking style with sneaky power. He notes that Vera's recent wins came against older, declining fighters like Rob Font, Dominic Cruz, and Frankie Edgar, and that Sandhagen is a different challenge. He believes Sandhagen's weird movements and toughness will neutralize Vera's power, and that Vera's habit of losing early before finding a finish won't work against Sandhagen. He admits he has never correctly picked a Vera fight but thinks this is where Vera's luck runs out.

"I gotta go with Corey here because he is durable and I think that insane power of Cheeto is gonna matter as much on somebody like Corey because I don't see Corey stopping."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, arguing that while Sandhagen is the better overall fighter with more volume and movement, Vera is a 'moment winner' who can land big shots and sway judges. He notes Vera's ability to get outstruck but still win rounds by landing damaging blows, as seen in the Rob Font fight. Brady believes Vera has 25 minutes to find Sandhagen's chin and predicts a fourth-round knockout, though he acknowledges a close decision is possible.

Vera by KO/TKO in round 4
"I'm gonna take Vera here for the doll as a dog and say that either he does find the chin of Corey sandhagen at some point in this fight... I'll say vera for a fourth round knockout win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen based on pure volume and fast starting ability. He notes Sandhagen lands a high number of significant strikes (169 vs Yanez, 128 vs Dillashaw) and that Vera is a slow starter who often drops the first round. He believes Sandhagen will bank the early rounds and win a decision, though he acknowledges Vera's durability and late-round finishing ability. He suggests betting Sandhagen by decision to improve the line.

Sandhagen by decision; Sandhagen over 107.5 significant strikes; fight goes over 2.5 rounds
"I will go with Corey sanderhagen based on pure volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Connor sees Sandhagen as a heavily upgraded version of the opponents Vera has been beating (Rob Font, Dominick Cruz). He believes Sandhagen's durability, conditioning, adaptability, and elusive defense will be too much for Vera's 'anti-process' style. He compares it to Yoel Romero vs Robert Whittaker, suggesting Sandhagen is Vera's Whittaker.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen opened -163, currently -172; Vera opened +143, currently +141. Notes gamblers favor Sandhagen.
"I think Corey Sandhagen is Cheeto's Robert Whitaker, if we're sticking to the Yoel comparison."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Jacob picks Vera, noting that he was a former hater but converted after Vera beat Rob Font. He argues that Vera is excellent at making reads over time and capitalizing, and that Sandhagen is hittable because he stands in front of opponents and doesn't move his head. He thinks Sandhagen's toughness means he gets hit, and Vera's power at bantamweight is a serious threat. He predicts Vera will find a shot and finish Sandhagen, possibly by submission in the third round.

Vera by submission in round 3 (speculative, not a bet)
"I think it's going to be one of those Cheeto fights where it's going to look like Corey's winning he's winning he's winning oh my God Corey's knocked out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host believes Sandhagen is the best puzzle for Vera since his winning streak, citing Sandhagen's ability to keep up with Vera's cardio and put together a full MMA game. He notes Sandhagen is defensively responsible enough to avoid big strikes and can tie Vera up in the clinch if needed. He expects Sandhagen to get off his own game from distance and allow the judges to see it in his favor, predicting Sandhagen wins by decision despite possibly dropping a round or two.

"I think that Corey sandagan is the best puzzle for varus since he's been on this winning streak"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen over Vera, arguing that Sandhagen is much better than Vera's recent opponents like Cruz and Font. He highlights Sandhagen's diverse attack (leg kicks, body shots, takedowns) and toughness, believing he can avoid Vera's power and win a decision. He notes Vera's ability to find finishes but thinks Sandhagen's movement and durability will carry him.

"I'm going with Corey sandhagen over Marlon Vera... I think sandhagen's going to be chopping that leg early on front kicking the body jab into the body and moving mixing it up against Marlon Vera"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Zane picks Sandhagen because Vera is scary but has recent losses to Jose Aldo and Song Yadong. He notes Sandhagen is harder to track and predict than Font or Cruz, and Vera's clinch wrestling is less of a threat than Dillashaw's. He expects Sandhagen to be elusive enough to win, though Vera could steal rounds with damage.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen -172, Vera +141. Notes the line is slowly getting wider toward Sandhagen.
"I have to pick Sandhagen too. Vera is scary right now... but Sandhagen is dangerous and dynamic enough."
WIN vs Dominick Cruz
KO (head kick) R4 2:17 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 3 61 of 156 39% 63 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dominick Cruz 0 92 of 249 36% 100 of 259 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 1 9 of 33 27% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Cruz 0 21 of 61 34% 29 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:49
2 Marlon Vera 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 32 of 78 41% 32 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dominick Cruz 0 28 of 80 35% 28 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
4 Marlon Vera 2 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dominick Cruz 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 61 of 156 39% 35 of 121 13 of 21 13 of 14 54 of 146 5 of 6 2 of 4
Dominick Cruz 92 of 249 36% 54 of 193 16 of 32 22 of 24 89 of 245 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 9 of 33 27% 4 of 25 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 2
Dominick Cruz 21 of 61 34% 12 of 49 1 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Marlon Vera 19 of 52 36% 9 of 40 6 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 32 of 78 41% 17 of 55 7 of 14 8 of 9 31 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 21 of 49 42% 14 of 39 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 28 of 80 35% 21 of 68 2 of 6 5 of 6 28 of 79 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marlon Vera 12 of 22 54% 8 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Cruz 11 of 30 36% 4 of 21 6 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-210), Cruz (+180)

Round 1
It’s main event time, with former champion Cruz looking to make one last run at the title in front of the home folks. In his way is Vera, who’s won three straight and has title aspirations of his own. Herb Dean will be the third man in the cage for the evening’s featured bout. Cruz comes out aggressive iwth a high kick followd by a combination. Cruz with a head kick followed by a straight right hand. Cruz kicks to the body as Vera remains calm. A hard low kick for Cruz finds the mark. Vera throws a front kick and Cruz catches it and throws him on the canvas. Vera is right back up. Vera counters a low kick with a left hand and drops Cruz. the former champ pops right back to his feet. Cruz pressures with a combination, then has a head kick blocked. Cruz is forcing the issue with combinations. Cruz feints a takedown and misses with an overhand. Vera misses a front kick and Cruz pressures with punches. Cruz lands a low kick. A front kick down the middle lands for Vera. Cruz again pushes forward with a combination followed by a head kick. Again, Cruz blitzes forward with punches. With less than a minute to go, Cruz executes a nicely-timed takedown. Cruz is in full guard, looking to create space for ground-and-pound. Vera threatens with a triangle and Cruz stands. The round ends with Cruz kicking at his opponent’s legs.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 2
Vera opens with a high kick but Cruz blocks it. Cruz with another blitz of punches and he follows up with a low kick. Cruz with a low kick followed by a right hand. Cruz chips at the legs and then rushes forward with punches. Cruz stays busy with kicks and then counters as Vera moves in. Vera avoids another flurry of punches, but Cruz lands a nice right to the body. Cruz is mixing things up nicely, keeping Vera off balance. Cruz lands a leg kick, but Vera avoids the follow up combination. Another low kick lands for Cruz, but he can’t find the range on the ensuing flurry of punches. Cruz with a right to the body. He goes body-head and lands both. Vera finds the mark on a right hook. Cruz with a straight right, then a front kick down the middle and another right hand. Cruz shoots with 30 seconds, but Vera sprawls. Cruz lands a jab and Vera just misses a head kick before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 3
Cruz kicks the leg and follows up with a punching combination. Another heavy leg kick draws a reaction from Vera. Cruz flurries and a counter from Vera backs him up. Cruz slips and lands a punch even while moving awkwardly. Vera moves forward and follows a double jab with a powerful right that drops Cruz. The ex champ is right back up, though. Cruz feints a takedown and eats a left hook for his efforts. Cruz’s movement may have slowed ever so slightly. Cruz shoots and Vera sprawls on it and tags Cruz with a left. Cruz lands a jab and moves forward with punches. Vera jabs in response. Cruz’s volume isn’t quite what it was in earlier rounds. He lands a left and Vera answers with a body kick. Vera stuffs a takedown against the fence and lands some elbows to the side of the head. Cruz gives up and they’re back at range. Vera lans a jab before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 4
Vera eludes Cruz’s punches and the stuffs a takedown. A right from Cruz makes Vera stumble back but it’s more of a slip than anything. Cruz with a right to the body. A stiff left jab catches Cruz coming forward and sits him down. Cruz is up in a hurry but it’s the third knockdown of the night for Vera. Once again, Cruz isn’t landing with the volume he did early.
Cruz darts in and then dips his head off to the side. Vera is waiting for it, and he catches Cruz with a perfectly-timed head kick on the chin. Cruz faceplants into the canvas as a result of the blow. Vera follows up with three mostly unnecessary ground shots before Dean dives in to save Cruz
, who looks like his nose is badly damaged. That’s four in a row for Vera, whose power was on display throughout the fight.

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Dominick Cruz via KO (Head Kick and Punches) R4 2:17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Angelo picks Dominick Cruz but is on the fence. He notes Cruz's movement and striking defense make him hard to hit, and he can win by mixing in takedowns. However, Vera has devastating power and an iron chin, and Cruz may not be able to avoid damage for five rounds. Angelo compares to the Frankie Edgar fight where Edgar outstruck Vera and got takedowns but still got knocked out. He might change his pick.

"i think dominic can pull this off but make sure you watch our tuesday night breakdown because i'm so on the fence with this pic i might change it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera to win by late knockout, likely in the fourth round. He notes that Vera is a slow starter but becomes a savage in the championship rounds, as seen against Rob Font. Cruz is 37, with declining durability and speed, and was dropped in his last fight. Vera lands the harder shots and has knockdown power. Brady expects Vera to eventually land something big and finish Cruz.

fourth round knockout
"i like marlon vera here to win i'll say fourth round knockout for marlon vera to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Marlon Vera. He emphasizes Vera's durability and tenacity in five-round fights, noting he often loses the first round but builds momentum. Cody believes Vera's leg kicks will stifle Cruz's movement and that judges favor damage over volume. He also suggests live betting Vera after he loses the first round.

Live betting Vera after round one
"i'm basically on the same lines i mean i like marlon vera i've always said that this guy's built for five round fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, emphasizing that Vera is a slow starter but excels in championship rounds. He notes Vera's iron chin, finishing ability (most finishes in bantamweight history), and the importance of calf kicks to slow Cruz's movement. Levi believes Cruz will have early success but fade as the fight progresses, and Vera will either finish or win a clear decision. He also mentions that Vera's boxing has improved under Jason Parillo.

Parlayed Vera with Bruno Silva at +102 odds. Also mentioned that Vera's line was -205 when he bet it, now -240.
"I'm taking Marlon Vera man, I just think that down the stretch third fourth fifth round once that movement starts to slow down once these calf kicks start to accumulate that's when is gonna be the time to go out …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Dominick Cruz

The host is emphatic about Cruz, citing his wrestling advantage and high fight IQ. He notes that Cruz has landed 55 takedowns at a 43% clip since his WEC days, while Vera is not known for takedown defense. He believes people are overlooking Cruz's grappling and that the fight won't be a 25-minute kickboxing match. He also mentions Cruz's movement and ability to roll with kicks, referencing the Pedro Munoz fight where Cruz survived heavy leg kicks. He is confident that at plus money, Cruz is the value play.

Decision only Cruz at +150 (2 units); also mentions betting Cruz moneyline at +180 (2 units) and +200 (1 unit).
"i got in two units at plus 180 at the start of the week expecting money to come in on one of the greatest bantamweights of all time but the flashy and vicious nature of marlin vera seems to be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Paul picks Marlon Vera, noting that while Cruz may out-volume him early, Vera lands the more impactful strikes. He points out that Cruz has been knocked down in his last four fights and is getting older. Paul thinks Vera's leg kicks will slow Cruz's mobility, and he prefers to bet Vera live after round one or two rather than at the -230 moneyline.

Live betting Vera after round one or two
"i like vera to win i think the minus 230 is a little bit steep"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host picks Marlon Vera by fourth-round submission (d'arce choke). He expects Cruz to win the first two rounds but fade as Vera's leg kicks and pressure accumulate. He predicts Vera will hurt Cruz, sprawl on a takedown, and choke him out. He emphasizes Vera's size and reach advantages, and notes Cruz's injury history and lack of power compared to other Vera opponents.

fourth round submission (d'arce choke)
"i'm going to be going with marlon vera getting this one done by tko in the fourth round... i'm actually going to go dash choke"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Sandhagen because he is younger, durable, and has a versatile striking style with sneaky power. He notes that Vera's recent wins came against older, declining fighters like Rob Font, Dominic Cruz, and Frankie Edgar, and that Sandhagen is a different challenge. He believes Sandhagen's weird movements and toughness will neutralize Vera's power, and that Vera's habit of losing early before finding a finish won't work against Sandhagen. He admits he has never correctly picked a Vera fight but thinks this is where Vera's luck runs out.

"I gotta go with Corey here because he is durable and I think that insane power of Cheeto is gonna matter as much on somebody like Corey because I don't see Corey stopping."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, arguing that while Sandhagen is the better overall fighter with more volume and movement, Vera is a 'moment winner' who can land big shots and sway judges. He notes Vera's ability to get outstruck but still win rounds by landing damaging blows, as seen in the Rob Font fight. Brady believes Vera has 25 minutes to find Sandhagen's chin and predicts a fourth-round knockout, though he acknowledges a close decision is possible.

Vera by KO/TKO in round 4
"I'm gonna take Vera here for the doll as a dog and say that either he does find the chin of Corey sandhagen at some point in this fight... I'll say vera for a fourth round knockout win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen based on pure volume and fast starting ability. He notes Sandhagen lands a high number of significant strikes (169 vs Yanez, 128 vs Dillashaw) and that Vera is a slow starter who often drops the first round. He believes Sandhagen will bank the early rounds and win a decision, though he acknowledges Vera's durability and late-round finishing ability. He suggests betting Sandhagen by decision to improve the line.

Sandhagen by decision; Sandhagen over 107.5 significant strikes; fight goes over 2.5 rounds
"I will go with Corey sanderhagen based on pure volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Connor sees Sandhagen as a heavily upgraded version of the opponents Vera has been beating (Rob Font, Dominick Cruz). He believes Sandhagen's durability, conditioning, adaptability, and elusive defense will be too much for Vera's 'anti-process' style. He compares it to Yoel Romero vs Robert Whittaker, suggesting Sandhagen is Vera's Whittaker.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen opened -163, currently -172; Vera opened +143, currently +141. Notes gamblers favor Sandhagen.
"I think Corey Sandhagen is Cheeto's Robert Whitaker, if we're sticking to the Yoel comparison."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Jacob picks Vera, noting that he was a former hater but converted after Vera beat Rob Font. He argues that Vera is excellent at making reads over time and capitalizing, and that Sandhagen is hittable because he stands in front of opponents and doesn't move his head. He thinks Sandhagen's toughness means he gets hit, and Vera's power at bantamweight is a serious threat. He predicts Vera will find a shot and finish Sandhagen, possibly by submission in the third round.

Vera by submission in round 3 (speculative, not a bet)
"I think it's going to be one of those Cheeto fights where it's going to look like Corey's winning he's winning he's winning oh my God Corey's knocked out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host believes Sandhagen is the best puzzle for Vera since his winning streak, citing Sandhagen's ability to keep up with Vera's cardio and put together a full MMA game. He notes Sandhagen is defensively responsible enough to avoid big strikes and can tie Vera up in the clinch if needed. He expects Sandhagen to get off his own game from distance and allow the judges to see it in his favor, predicting Sandhagen wins by decision despite possibly dropping a round or two.

"I think that Corey sandagan is the best puzzle for varus since he's been on this winning streak"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen over Vera, arguing that Sandhagen is much better than Vera's recent opponents like Cruz and Font. He highlights Sandhagen's diverse attack (leg kicks, body shots, takedowns) and toughness, believing he can avoid Vera's power and win a decision. He notes Vera's ability to find finishes but thinks Sandhagen's movement and durability will carry him.

"I'm going with Corey sandhagen over Marlon Vera... I think sandhagen's going to be chopping that leg early on front kicking the body jab into the body and moving mixing it up against Marlon Vera"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Zane picks Sandhagen because Vera is scary but has recent losses to Jose Aldo and Song Yadong. He notes Sandhagen is harder to track and predict than Font or Cruz, and Vera's clinch wrestling is less of a threat than Dillashaw's. He expects Sandhagen to be elusive enough to win, though Vera could steal rounds with damage.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen -172, Vera +141. Notes the line is slowly getting wider toward Sandhagen.
"I have to pick Sandhagen too. Vera is scary right now... but Sandhagen is dangerous and dynamic enough."