UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Augusto Sakai
4.6 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.83 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.23 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Blagoy Ivanov
3.25 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.2 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.69 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Augusto Sakai - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 53 of 95 55% 107 of 173 1 of 2 50% 0 0 8:51
Don'Tale Mayes 0 29 of 62 46% 77 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 38 50% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 20 65% 29 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Augusto Sakai 0 16 of 27 59% 46 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:52
Don'Tale Mayes 0 4 of 15 26% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
3 Augusto Sakai 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Don'Tale Mayes 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 53 of 95 55% 27 of 65 18 of 22 8 of 8 21 of 49 30 of 42 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 29 of 62 46% 15 of 46 10 of 12 4 of 4 24 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 38 50% 10 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 5 of 14 14 of 24 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 20 65% 4 of 11 5 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 16 of 27 59% 6 of 16 7 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 18 of 30 60% 11 of 21 7 of 9 0 of 0 6 of 15 10 of 11 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 12 of 27 44% 9 of 22 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.

Sakai opened +125, now -137. Mayes opened -145, now +112. Connor says he wouldn't bet on any props.
"I'll go with Sakai for this this to me feels like a fight that he can win it might be a fight he edges like yeah just barely guts out and you're like wow that didn't actually make me feel …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Zane picks Mayes despite his lack of structure, because Sakai's confidence has taken a hit after four straight finishes. He notes that Mayes is athletic, durable, and willing to try takedowns, and Sakai is not good on the ground. However, Zane admits he has no good reason to pick Mayes and calls it a coin flip, but he feels Sakai is not feeling himself lately.

Mayes via TKO was +200. Zane says he wouldn't bet on any props due to unpredictability.
"I don't have a good reason to pick maze but I just I'm just not feeling I don't think Spivak is feeling himself lately okay so sorry so I guess I'll take maze even though like he's such a mess"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
TKO (punches) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 8 of 23 34% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 33 of 49 67% 86 of 119 6 of 8 75% 1 0 6:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 10 of 13 76% 36 of 43 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:09
2 Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 23 of 36 63% 50 of 76 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 8 of 23 34% 1 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 17 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 24 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 7 of 11 63% 1 of 5 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Serghei Spivac 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line bet on sergey speak back in this fight
"I see spivak getting takedowns and will win with a potential stoppage because sakai off his back has no movement and he just takes whatever you give him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.

second round finish prediction (TKO or submission)
"i'll go speed back to win and buy like a second round like a second round tk or submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.

Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"My gut instinct is Spivac is going to eventually take him down... put a mauling on him... gotta go with Sergey Spivak."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.

"I see it as a dog or pass situation I guess pure pick I'll go Spivac just because the momentum's on his side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.

Sakai by knockout (looking for +500 or better); Sakai inside the distance at +350
"Sakai will be my pick... Sakai by knockout... I see Sakai inside the distance at plus 350."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.

"i'm going to be going with sergey spivak... i think he's a great fighter... i feel as though sergey spivak is going to get this one done by decision at 29 28"
LOSS vs Tai Tuivasa
KO (punches) R2 0:26 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 21 of 29 72% 40 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Augusto Sakai 1 34 of 52 65% 44 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 26 73% 38 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 37 64% 34 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:57
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 1 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 21 of 29 72% 6 of 12 12 of 13 3 of 4 5 of 12 16 of 17 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 34 of 52 65% 26 of 43 8 of 8 0 of 1 13 of 27 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 19 of 26 73% 4 of 9 12 of 13 3 of 4 3 of 9 16 of 17 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 37 64% 16 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 16 19 of 21 0 of 0
2 Tai Tuivasa 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
Meat is on the menu for this lone rumble on the card above 185 pounds, when Sakai (15-3-1, 4-2 UFC) and Tuivasa (12-3, 6-3 UFC) combine for 528 ready pounds inside the Octagon. Both sport 11 wins by knockout hoping to land another as rare members of the 30-and-under heavyweight club. The third man in the cage is referee Mark Smith, who hopes not to get blonked by an errant blow when these two come out swinging. They do clap hands to get things going, and the fight begins with Tuivasa taking the center of the cage plodding forward to walk Sakai down. Neither throw a strike of note for the first 55 seconds, until Sakai lands a single leg kick to counter a jab from the Aussie. Sakai goes back to circling along the outside, and he pops Tuivasa with another low leg kick. Tuivasa eats another as he continues to walk forward without engaging, until he looses a short combination that leads to him clinch up with his opponent. A stalemate ensues as they cling on one another, and Sakai is warned for smacking Tuivasa in the back of the head with a short shot. Tuivasa gets off a few punches to the midsection, and Sakai takes that personally as he turns him around and they both throw leather. Neither land flush, and Tuivasa returns to his constant forward motion. Tuivasa loads up with a huge uppercut, and he wings punches until Sakai ties him up. The Brazilian defends with his back against the wall with punches on Tuivasa’s ear, and he thinks to set up a high standing guillotine but there is nothing there. Sakai winds up with a knee right to the midsection, and he starts ripping them to the body to decent effect. The Aussie complains one might have gone low, and when Smith does not intervene, Tuivasa takes things into his own hands as he elbows Sakai hard on the chin. Tuivasa lets loose with a short barrage of blows, and Sakai slows him down with a few knees to the belly before the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa

Round 2
The fighters meet in the center of the cage and throw, and it is Tuivasa who lands flush first and in volume. Sakai is hurt after taking a left hook square on the chin, and he falls back to the wall while trying to blink it out.
“Bam Bam” does not let him off the hook, blasting him with huge punches as Sakai is barely on his feet. The Aussie lets it rip as he chains punches together, and one lands right on the button to completely disable Sakai. Sakai falls to the ground, consciousness completely stripped away, and his leg bends back in a scary way reminiscent of Mirko Filipovic against Gabriel Gonzaga.
The walk-off knockout successful, Tuivasa jumps on top of the cage and signals for someone to throw him a shoe and a can of beer. In what has become his trademark, Tuivasa completely wins the crowd over by pouring the full beer in the shoe and pounding it after a dramatic victory. That’s four in a row for the boisterous Aussie, who could not be happier with his performance.

The Official Result
Tai Tuivasa def. Augusto Sakai R2 0:26 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady edges with Augusto Sakai in a close fight. He notes that both fighters have similar striking and grappling numbers, but Sakai has better cardio and has gone to decisions against tough opponents. Tuivasa tends to fade after the first round, while Sakai is more comfortable in later rounds. Brady expects Sakai to win a 29-28 decision, but acknowledges Tuivasa's power and early-round finishing ability make this a pick'em.

"i'm gonna take sakai to win a 29-28 decision but this fight is so dang close"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa, noting that Sakai's chin has been checked in his last two losses and his confidence may be shaken. He believes Tuivasa's brawling style and power could get Sakai out early. Levi acknowledges that an extended fight favors Sakai's methodical approach, but he thinks Tuivasa will have big moments that sway the judges. He also mentions Tuivasa's improved training at AKA and lifestyle changes. Levi is not sure it will be a knockout but expects Tuivasa to win.

"give me tuivasa um not sure it's going to be a knockout but i think he can have some big moments in the fight that sway it towards his favor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round KO. He highlights Tuivasa's improved cardio and calf kicks, which he believes will wear down Sakai. He criticizes Sakai's chin and notes he is coming off a KO loss. He predicts Tuivasa will land a counter right hand or left hook to finish.

first-round KO via calf kicks and counter punches
"i'm going to go the first round ko for tuivasa chopping at the calf early i love those calf kicks"
TKO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.

"i'm gonna go with sakai i think sakai does get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.

over 1.5 rounds, fight starts round three -140
"i'm hoping sakai could potentially build on that i just i can't get behind rosenstruck not with my dollar"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.

"i gotta favor sakai here despite him being the underdog it's just really about don't get clipped with one big shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.

Sakai by decision +380, over 3.5 rounds +140
"I got sakai via decision plus 390"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.

fight starts round three -140, over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"gun to my head would be sakai dogger pass dogger pass close fight 50 50. i'm getting slight dog money on sakai"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i've got augusto sakai getting it done not to mention he's got pretty good striking defense on the feet as well"
TKO (elbows and punches) R5 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 0 92 of 114 80% 106 of 131 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:29
Augusto Sakai 0 99 of 173 57% 120 of 196 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 22 of 36 61% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 40 60% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Alistair Overeem 0 23 of 27 85% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Augusto Sakai 0 34 of 54 62% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
4 Alistair Overeem 0 40 of 48 83% 49 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
5 Alistair Overeem 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Augusto Sakai 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 92 of 114 80% 53 of 73 30 of 31 9 of 10 28 of 43 16 of 16 48 of 55
Augusto Sakai 99 of 173 57% 66 of 130 25 of 34 8 of 9 62 of 127 35 of 43 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 11 of 18 61% 2 of 9 6 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 22 of 36 61% 13 of 23 8 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Alistair Overeem 13 of 16 81% 5 of 7 7 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 7 9 of 9 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 40 60% 12 of 24 11 of 15 1 of 1 10 of 22 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Alistair Overeem 23 of 27 85% 10 of 14 9 of 9 4 of 4 11 of 14 2 of 2 10 of 11
Augusto Sakai 34 of 54 62% 27 of 47 4 of 4 3 of 3 21 of 37 11 of 14 2 of 3
4 Alistair Overeem 40 of 48 83% 31 of 38 8 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 33 of 39
Augusto Sakai 19 of 43 44% 14 of 36 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Alistair Overeem 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 5
Augusto Sakai 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Sakai mainly as a fade on Overeem's chin, noting Overeem has 13 knockout losses. He acknowledges Sakai is not a huge power puncher but believes he can catch Overeem. He mentions Overeem might have better cardio and could take Sakai down, but Sakai has 83% takedown defense. He suggests betting Sakai inside the distance.

Sakai inside the distance
"i'm gonna go with sakai it's basically a fade on overeem's chin which is not an awful look at this point in his career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel Levi picks Augusto Sakai to upset Alistair Overeem. He notes Sakai's underrated chin, having taken full KO blows from Arlovski without being hurt, and his methodical Muay Thai striking. Levi is concerned about Overeem's chin and tendency to admire his work, and believes Sakai will eventually catch Overeem, predicting a third-round knockout. He also mentions Sakai's competitive running background as a plus for cardio.

Sakai by KO in round 3
"i feel like sakai's got a very underrated chin man i haven't really seen him you know stumble get hurt drive none of that man so ... i feel like he's gonna come out here and knock alistair out i'ma …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host picks Overeem to win by third or fourth round TKO. He believes Overeem is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio since joining Team Elevation. He expects Overeem to wear on Sakai against the cage, take him down, and pound him out. He notes Overeem's chin is a concern but thinks he can survive Sakai's early power.

"i will take over him to win this fight probably by third or fourth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The MMA Guru picks Alistair Overeem, citing Sakai's lack of impressive wins and a controversial split decision over Andrei Arlovski that he considers a robbery. He believes Overeem's experience and ability to survive early storms will be key, and predicts a second or third round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Overeem's unappealing ground and pound style but expects it to be effective.

second or third round ground and pound tko
"i think overeem is actually gonna get a big ko here um maybe not a ko actually yeah no ko i think he takes down augusto sakai after rocking him gets the submission or gets a tko via crown and …"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 66 of 125 52% 71 of 130 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
Blagoy Ivanov 0 78 of 161 48% 89 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 15 of 27 55% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 38 31% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Augusto Sakai 0 30 of 49 61% 31 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Blagoy Ivanov 0 34 of 61 55% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Augusto Sakai 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 32 of 62 51% 34 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 66 of 125 52% 47 of 105 18 of 19 1 of 1 52 of 107 12 of 15 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 78 of 161 48% 35 of 105 28 of 38 15 of 18 62 of 144 14 of 15 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 15 of 27 55% 9 of 21 6 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 38 31% 3 of 24 4 of 8 5 of 6 10 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 30 of 49 61% 20 of 39 9 of 9 1 of 1 24 of 39 4 of 7 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 34 of 61 55% 18 of 40 9 of 13 7 of 8 23 of 50 9 of 9 2 of 2
3 Augusto Sakai 21 of 49 42% 18 of 45 3 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 32 of 62 51% 14 of 41 15 of 17 3 of 4 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Augusto Sakai to win a very close decision. He thinks Sakai will land more volume and that Ivanov's grappling game plan is unlikely to materialize since Ivanov hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He notes that both fighters have great chins and have never been finished, so he expects a boring heavyweight fight that goes to the judges. He admits it's a close fight and wouldn't be surprised if Ivanov gets the decision.

"I'm going to side with Sakai to win by a very very close decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel picks Sakai, citing his improvements in diet and conditioning, his muay thai skills, and his ability to pressure and outwork Ivanov. He notes that Ivanov is one-dimensional, only countering with left hands, and that Sakai's volume and durability will be key. He believes Sakai can either knock out Ivanov or win a decision.

"i think sakai is the younger man the taller man the guy with the longer reach the guy that throws more volume the more durable guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The MMA Guru picks Augusto Sakai to win by first-round TKO. He compares Sakai to Derrick Lewis but with better technique and more fight IQ. He predicts Sakai will push Ivanov against the cage and land knees and elbows in the clinch for a finish.

Sakai by TKO in round 1
"August osika is gonna push block away up against a cage blast knees to the body blast elbows in the clinch getting the finish in the first round"
WIN vs Marcin Tybura
KO (punches) R1 0:59 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 1 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 1 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 15 of 27 55% 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 7 of 7 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 15 of 27 55% 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 7 of 7 2 of 2
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 75 of 175 42% 82 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Andrei Arlovski 0 42 of 132 31% 51 of 141 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 47 40% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Andrei Arlovski 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
2 Augusto Sakai 0 25 of 70 35% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 17 of 47 36% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Augusto Sakai 0 31 of 58 53% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Andrei Arlovski 0 16 of 53 30% 19 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 75 of 175 42% 31 of 126 29 of 31 15 of 18 65 of 164 10 of 11 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 42 of 132 31% 26 of 108 8 of 12 8 of 12 30 of 113 12 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 47 40% 11 of 37 4 of 6 4 of 4 16 of 44 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 9 of 32 28% 5 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 4 7 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 25 of 70 35% 8 of 50 13 of 13 4 of 7 22 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 17 of 47 36% 12 of 39 1 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 31 of 58 53% 12 of 39 12 of 12 7 of 7 27 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 16 of 53 30% 9 of 44 5 of 5 2 of 4 7 of 38 9 of 15 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 85 of 154 55% 104 of 180 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:53
Blagoy Ivanov 0 44 of 108 40% 44 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Blagoy Ivanov 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 22 of 41 53% 38 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Blagoy Ivanov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 46 of 82 56% 49 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Blagoy Ivanov 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 85 of 154 55% 52 of 121 11 of 11 22 of 22 74 of 137 4 of 4 7 of 13
Blagoy Ivanov 44 of 108 40% 38 of 102 5 of 5 1 of 1 44 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 31 54% 5 of 19 5 of 5 7 of 7 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 13 of 29 44% 11 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 22 of 41 53% 12 of 31 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 46 of 82 56% 35 of 71 4 of 4 7 of 7 40 of 70 2 of 2 4 of 10
Blagoy Ivanov 22 of 51 43% 20 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov but with hesitation, contingent on Romanov's weight cut. He notes Romanov's recent poor performances and lack of cardio, while Ivanov has an iron chin and solid takedown defense. He plans to wait for weigh-ins: if Romanov looks in shape, he'll switch to Romanov; if not, he'll bet Ivanov. He mentions Ivanov at +125.

waiting for weigh-ins; potential bet on Ivanov if Romanov looks out of shape
"right now the pick is going to be Ivanov I the pig is going to be blue Ivanov because Alexander romanov's last two fights he had one round of cardio"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by third-round finish, but is very hesitant. He notes Romanov has cardio issues and looked terrible at weigh-ins for his last fight, gassing after one minute. Ivanov is extremely durable, has never been knocked out, and has gone to decision in all seven UFC fights. Brady says he needs to see Romanov's weigh-ins to have a stronger opinion, but if Ivanov survives the first round, he should take over and possibly finish late.

third round finish
"I'll say he takes over I'll say third round finish four but goal even off"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody is torn on Romanov. He notes Romanov's potential and wrestling, but his poor cardio and questionable heart after the Volkov loss. He thinks if Romanov comes in shape, he can take Ivanov down and win early rounds. However, Ivanov is extremely durable and has never been finished. Cody suggests waiting for weigh-ins and considering live betting.

Live bet Romanov after first round if he looks good
"I am going to pick Romanov but the best way to attack this thing is live"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Daniel picks Ivanov pre-weigh-ins due to Romanov's inconsistency and weight issues. He notes Romanov's drastic weight fluctuation (239 to 264 lbs) and his tendency to quit after failed takedowns. Ivanov is durable, has a 70% takedown defense, and has been competitive in all his losses. However, Daniel reserves the right to change his pick if Romanov weighs in lean (239 lbs). He calls it a 'wait for weigh-ins' situation.

"pre weigh-ins I'ma go blagoy because at least I know like is going to give his best"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Paul picks Ivanov, citing his durability and proven ability to go 15 minutes. He notes Romanov has never shown he can fight past the second round without gassing. Ivanov has gone the distance with top heavyweights and has good grappling. Paul thinks Romanov's cardio and mental toughness are major question marks, and Ivanov will outlast him.

Ivanov round 3 at 12-1
"I'm gonna take every single time the guy has proven time and time again against Elite level competition that he can fight 15 minutes we haven't seen that from Romanov so yeah it's black boy black boy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov but expresses hesitation due to Romanov's terrible performance against Alexander Volkov, where he gave up after a stuffed takedown. However, he believes Romanov can out-grapple Blagoy Ivanov, who is fat and unathletic, using his signature forearm choke. He uses MMA algebra: Romanov outgrappled Tybura, who outgrappled Ivanov. He notes Ivanov is not adding new wrinkles and is aging.

forearm choke submission
"I'm gonna go with Alexander Romanov here over blogore Ivanov I I have to pick Romanov to win"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 40 of 103 38% 61 of 133 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:55
Blagoy Ivanov 0 34 of 113 30% 34 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Tybura 0 17 of 57 29% 17 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 22 of 72 30% 22 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Tybura 0 1 of 1 100% 22 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:55
Blagoy Ivanov 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 40 of 103 38% 12 of 70 19 of 24 9 of 9 39 of 102 0 of 0 1 of 1
Blagoy Ivanov 34 of 113 30% 24 of 98 10 of 15 0 of 0 34 of 112 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 22 of 45 48% 5 of 26 10 of 12 7 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 41 29% 8 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 17 of 57 29% 7 of 44 9 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 22 of 72 30% 16 of 63 6 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Blagoy Ivanov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady calls this a messy fight and expects it to go to a greasy decision. He picks the underdog Ivanov because he is more durable and has never been finished, while Tybura has been finished multiple times. He is not confident and advises against betting.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take even off to win a very greasy split decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Cody picks Ivanov at plus money, calling it a close heavyweight fight. He believes Ivanov has a slight edge in technical boxing and volume. He notes both fighters are low-volume and durable, expecting a decision. He took Ivanov at +130 and thinks the fight is essentially 50-50, so he takes the underdog.

"I took the plus money at plus 130... I think he's got a maybe a slight Edge in uh in like technical boxing a slight Edge in volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor picks Marcin Tybura, expecting a split decision. He notes that Tybura is more proactive with kicks and combinations, and will likely be the one initiating clinch exchanges. However, he acknowledges Ivanov's durability and defensive wrestling, which could make the fight ugly. Connor is confident it will be a split decision but leans Tybura due to higher output.

split decision
"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Tybura, arguing that Ivanov has looked slow and predictable in recent fights. He notes Ivanov's poor cardio and lack of takedown attempts, while Tybura has good cardio and mobility for a heavyweight. He expects Tybura to outwork Ivanov, especially in the later rounds. He also likes the under on Tybura 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Tybura under 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I went the other way I just can't get behind blah boy anymore... gotta go the other way here in marcine Tabor but middling heavyweights expect the worst"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Marcin Tybura, agreeing that it will be a split decision. He notes that Tybura has better tools at range and is more likely to control the clinch. However, he warns that Ivanov's power and chin could cause an upset if Tybura gets hurt. Zane sees Tybura's improved composure as a key factor.

split decision
"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Blagoy Ivanov 0 62 of 128 48% 75 of 142 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:52
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 68 of 133 51% 81 of 147 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 29 41% 15 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Blagoy Ivanov 0 30 of 54 55% 33 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:09
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 26 of 56 46% 35 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Blagoy Ivanov 0 20 of 45 44% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 17 of 32 53% 21 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Blagoy Ivanov 62 of 128 48% 53 of 118 9 of 10 0 of 0 54 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 68 of 133 51% 46 of 107 18 of 20 4 of 6 58 of 115 10 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 29 41% 9 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 25 of 45 55% 10 of 27 12 of 13 3 of 5 23 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Blagoy Ivanov 30 of 54 55% 24 of 48 6 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 26 of 56 46% 22 of 51 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 44 7 of 12 0 of 0
3 Blagoy Ivanov 20 of 45 44% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 17 of 32 53% 14 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 29 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his iron chin and combat sambo background. He believes Ivanov's chin will frustrate de Lima and that if Ivanov gets a takedown, he will have a clear advantage on top. He notes that six of de Lima's seven losses are by submission, providing a clear path.

"I do like ivanov or ivanov to get the win here i think his chin will frustrate de lima"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by second-round submission. He notes that de Lima is dangerous early with power and leg kicks, but he fades and has poor takedown defense (47%) and submission defense. Ivanov is extremely durable, having eaten shots from heavy hitters and survived a stabbing. Brady thinks de Lima will win the first round but Ivanov will take over in the second, taking de Lima down and submitting him. He compares it to the Struve fight where Struve submitted de Lima after nearly being finished.

second round submission
"I think ivanov takes down to lima de lima's takedown defense is not good it's sitting at like 50 it's actually sitting at 47 percent and then on top of that his gas tank's not good his submission defense is …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Cody picks Blagoy Ivanov, emphasizing his incredible durability (survived stabbing, fought Fedor, Derrick Lewis). He notes that de Lima has poor cardio, weak submission defense, and relies on early power. Cody believes Ivanov can take de Lima's best shots and then take over as de Lima fades. He sees Ivanov's takedown defense and chin as decisive factors.

"i completely agree i think blagoy ivanov uh he just the way he matches up against roger de lima can give him a whole lot of problems"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Daniel Levi picks Blagoy Ivanov by decision, citing his durability and never being finished. He notes de Lima is powerful early but fades and has low volume. He worries about Ivanov's own low output but thinks he can grind out a win. He does not bet the fight.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions Ivanov by decision but no bet.
"The pick is for me is going to be Ivanov by decision but I don't have a bet on either fighter in this matchup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

The host picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his durability and ability to survive de Lima's early power. He notes Ivanov's chin held up against heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis. He expects Ivanov to weather the first round, then wear on de Lima and finish him later. He likes the round 3 prop at +1000 and decision prop at +185. He plans to bet 1.4-1.5 units on Ivanov moneyline, acknowledging the layoff risk but believing Ivanov is rightly favored and could be even shorter.

Ivanov round 3 +1000; Ivanov by decision +185; de Lima round 1 KO +800 as hedge
"i'm gonna likely take a shot on it maybe a like a 1.4 or 1.5 unit play on blagoy even off"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Paul picks Blagoy Ivanov, surprised the line is so close. He notes that Ivanov is durable and has never been finished, while de Lima gasses and has poor takedown defense. Paul believes Ivanov's takedown defense and chin will be key, and that de Lima's only path is an early knockout. He expects Ivanov to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i feel like blagoy is the side here and it's not particularly close i'm surprised that the line is this close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

The MMA Guru picks Blagoy Ivanov, trusting his granite chin and consistency against a higher level of competition. He notes Ivanov went five rounds with JDS and arguably beat Derrick Lewis. He criticizes de Lima's inconsistency and believes Ivanov will grind out a close 29-28 decision by pressuring and winning stand-up exchanges. He dismisses the height difference as not significant.

"i'm going to trust him blagojev enough getting this one done um they say there's a massive height difference i don't think there's going to be too much of a height difference"
LOSS vs Augusto Sakai
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 66 of 125 52% 71 of 130 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
Blagoy Ivanov 0 78 of 161 48% 89 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 15 of 27 55% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 38 31% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Augusto Sakai 0 30 of 49 61% 31 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Blagoy Ivanov 0 34 of 61 55% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Augusto Sakai 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 32 of 62 51% 34 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 66 of 125 52% 47 of 105 18 of 19 1 of 1 52 of 107 12 of 15 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 78 of 161 48% 35 of 105 28 of 38 15 of 18 62 of 144 14 of 15 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 15 of 27 55% 9 of 21 6 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 38 31% 3 of 24 4 of 8 5 of 6 10 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 30 of 49 61% 20 of 39 9 of 9 1 of 1 24 of 39 4 of 7 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 34 of 61 55% 18 of 40 9 of 13 7 of 8 23 of 50 9 of 9 2 of 2
3 Augusto Sakai 21 of 49 42% 18 of 45 3 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 32 of 62 51% 14 of 41 15 of 17 3 of 4 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Augusto Sakai to win a very close decision. He thinks Sakai will land more volume and that Ivanov's grappling game plan is unlikely to materialize since Ivanov hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He notes that both fighters have great chins and have never been finished, so he expects a boring heavyweight fight that goes to the judges. He admits it's a close fight and wouldn't be surprised if Ivanov gets the decision.

"I'm going to side with Sakai to win by a very very close decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel picks Sakai, citing his improvements in diet and conditioning, his muay thai skills, and his ability to pressure and outwork Ivanov. He notes that Ivanov is one-dimensional, only countering with left hands, and that Sakai's volume and durability will be key. He believes Sakai can either knock out Ivanov or win a decision.

"i think sakai is the younger man the taller man the guy with the longer reach the guy that throws more volume the more durable guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The MMA Guru picks Augusto Sakai to win by first-round TKO. He compares Sakai to Derrick Lewis but with better technique and more fight IQ. He predicts Sakai will push Ivanov against the cage and land knees and elbows in the clinch for a finish.

Sakai by TKO in round 1
"August osika is gonna push block away up against a cage blast knees to the body blast elbows in the clinch getting the finish in the first round"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 0 31 of 68 45% 32 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:07
Blagoy Ivanov 0 20 of 38 52% 61 of 83 3 of 6 50% 1 0 3:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 8 of 18 44% 9 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:54
Blagoy Ivanov 0 4 of 5 80% 23 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
2 Derrick Lewis 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Blagoy Ivanov 0 9 of 16 56% 13 of 22 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:33
3 Derrick Lewis 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 7 of 17 41% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 31 of 68 45% 21 of 54 8 of 11 2 of 3 9 of 27 22 of 41 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 20 of 38 52% 12 of 27 7 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 24 8 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 8 of 18 44% 5 of 13 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 5 6 of 13 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Derrick Lewis 14 of 29 48% 10 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 9 11 of 20 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 9 of 16 56% 6 of 11 2 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Derrick Lewis 9 of 21 42% 6 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 13 5 of 8 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 12 1 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Round 1
Heavyweights are set to throw down as Lewis (21-7, 1 NC; 12-5 UFC) attempts to become the first fighter to ever knock out the
incredibly durable and fearless
Ivanov (18-2, 1 NC; 2-1 UFC). Attempting to keep a lid on this 522.4-pound potential slugfest is referee Todd Anderson. They touch gloves, and Lewis immediately walks down Ivanov. The Bulgarian keeps his distance, pawing out a right jab to figure out his range, and chants of "USA" rain down from the crowd. Lewis whiffs on a low kick, but Ivanov is unable to capitalize on it as he tries to feint his way in. Lewis stalks down Ivanov and tries to cork a right hand, but instead throws a body kick. Ivanov catches it and pulls Lewis down, where he steps right into side control and looks to set up a crucifix position before yanking on Lewis' arm. Lewis explodes to his feet and throws everything he has into a few punches that catch Ivanov square. Ivanov is hurt, but he shakes it off, so Lewis throws a head kick that makes him fall over. In the clinch, shockingly Lewis shoots in for a takedown, and he hits it. Ivanov stands back up without much effort, while Lewis leans heavy on his opponent. Ivanov pulls into a Thai plum and fires a knee up the middle, and "The Black Beast" eats it without issue. Hanging tight on one another, they occasionally separate to throw a punch or two, and Ivanov tries to throw Lewis over his hip but Lewis stays upright. Lewis swings heavy with right hands, and as Ivanov breaks free, he trades right back. We return to the center of the cage, and seem content on trying to set up that huge overhand shot -- Lewis with his right, and Ivanov with his left. Neither score it, although Ivanov aims at the body once, and the horn sounds. Close round put in by these two to start things off.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lewis

Round 2
The second round begins with chants of "Let's go Lewis," but neither man react to it, until Ivanov slams a big left hook directly on Lewis' chin. The Texan wears it well and tries to clinch up, and on the break barely misses with a big uppercut. Lewis lands a decent leg kick, and then leaps in to crack Ivanov with punches. With his back against the fence, Ivanov unloads some bombs and appears to briefly hurt Lewis. "The Black Beast" throws wildly, and takes a moment to rest, so Ivanov takes him down. Right into side control, Ivanov aims to secure a keylock, but Lewis holds a thumbs-up to indicate that he is alright. Like the first round, Lewis bursts out of the position and stands up, and follows that with serious hooks that bloody up Ivanov under both of his eyes. The Bulgarian survives the brunt of the assault and circles away, before they take a break in the center of the cage. Ivanov crashes forward into the clinch and brings up a solid knee before throwing a couple uppercuts. Lewis cracks Ivanov with a huge knee, and Ivanov practically shrugs it off and walks Lewis down. A lead right hand is followed by two lefts from Ivanov, and Lewis stays calm and takes it on the jaw while trying to catch his breath. With seconds left, Ivanov throws Lewis to the ground and pulls for a guillotine. It is not tight, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov

Round 3
The final round begins tentatively, with the two touching gloves and taking their time to engage. Finally, Ivanov leads in with a right and then a looping left, but Lewis is out of the way in time. Lewis chambers a right hand and finally sends it Ivanov's direction, but it does not find the target. Ivanov digs to the body with a few punches, so Lewis fires back with a big right that misses as well. The Bulgarian initiates the clinch, and although he lands a knee and a few uppercuts, the pace has waned significantly between these two large men. Ivanov almost trips Lewis to the ground, but Lewis regains his footing and reacts to a faked shot from Ivanov. Lewis swings with all his might in an uppercut that would make a Mortal Kombat player blush, but it merely blows the hair back from those in the front row. Lewis whiffs with a big right, but he lands a knee, and rushes in to take Ivanov down. Ivanov cannot set up a choke, so Lewis pops out and throws a vicious right hand that Ivanov ducks. The Bulgarian briefly considers changing levels to get Lewis down but there is nothing doing, so he instead goes after a few short uppercuts. Lewis tries to fire back with an elbow, but it glances off the side of Ivanov's head. With 15 seconds left, the crowd roars to life as the two men trade wildly. Lewis tags Ivanov with a right hand and then a knee, and this fight comes to a glorious end. The scorecards could be all over the map in this fight, as these rounds have been very close. The scores delivered by our official scorers may not quite reflect how just close this fight played out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis (30-27 Lewis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lewis (30-27 Lewis)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lewis (29-28 Lewis)

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Blagoy Ivanov via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Blagoy Ivanov 0 64 of 144 44% 66 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Tai Tuivasa 1 73 of 123 59% 81 of 131 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Blagoy Ivanov 0 14 of 37 37% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Tai Tuivasa 1 22 of 34 64% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
2 Blagoy Ivanov 0 27 of 62 43% 27 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Tai Tuivasa 0 30 of 54 55% 30 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
3 Blagoy Ivanov 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Tai Tuivasa 0 21 of 35 60% 28 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Blagoy Ivanov 64 of 144 44% 39 of 114 6 of 7 19 of 23 50 of 126 14 of 18 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 73 of 123 59% 65 of 114 7 of 8 1 of 1 62 of 111 5 of 6 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Blagoy Ivanov 14 of 37 37% 10 of 32 1 of 1 3 of 4 9 of 32 5 of 5 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 22 of 34 64% 20 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 28 1 of 1 5 of 5
2 Blagoy Ivanov 27 of 62 43% 17 of 51 1 of 1 9 of 10 24 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 30 of 54 55% 27 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Blagoy Ivanov 23 of 45 51% 12 of 31 4 of 5 7 of 9 17 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 21 of 35 60% 18 of 32 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Round 1
The first fight of the pay-per-view portion of UFC 238 is a heavyweight bout between Tai Tuivasa and Blagoy Ivanov. The referee is Dan Miragliotta. They touch gloves and the fight is on. Tuivasa with a low kick. He moves forward but Ivanov circles away. Tuivasa clips Ivanov with a straight right. They clinch against the cage. Tuivasa connects on a short elbow in the clinch. He continues to lean on Ivanov against the cage. They break. Ivanov lands a right hook and drops Tuivasa. Ivanov is now looking for the neck of Tuivasa but Tuivasa recovers quickly and clinches up with Ivanov again. Ivanov has the neck of Tuivasa and uses it to turn Tuivasa against the fence. They break. Tuivasa lands a knee to the body. Ivanov with a straight left hand. Ivanov lands a right hook that wobbles Tuivasa, who responds with a nice 1-2 combination. Ivanov lands a straight right. He lands a straight left and backs Tuivasa up once again. The round soon comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov
Ant Walker scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov

Round 2
Round two begins. Ivanov clips Tuivasa with a straight left again. Jab by Ivanov. Tuivasa rocks Ivanov with a straight right. Ivanov is on wobbly legs and could be in serious trouble. Ivanov manages to clinch up and regain his composure. Low kick by Tuivasa. Ivanov lands a straight left. Another straight left by Ivanov. Jab by Ivanov. Tuivasa lands a jab of his own. Ivanov backs Tuivasa against the fence. Tuivasa lands a 1-2 on Ivanov. Jab by Tuivasa. He lands a nasty low kick. Ivanov with a straight left. Both guys are very tired and very slow right now. Ivanov lands a 1-2 of his own. Left straight to the body by Ivanov. Another jab by Ivanov. Tuivasa returns with one of his own. Low kick by Tuivasa. They clinch up. Ivanov is able to drag Tuivasa down to the ground and actually taps Tuivasa out with a guillotine choke but it was after the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov
Ant Walker scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov

Round 3
Round three begins. Tuivasa comes out with a jab but Ivanov moves forward and clubs him with a right hook. Tuivasa lands a right hook on Ivanov. They clinch up. Ivanov takes the neck of Tuivasa and drags him to the mat. Tuivasa gets back to his feet but Ivanov continues to lean into him against the cage. They jockey positions against the cage. Ivanov starts to knee Tuivasa in the body. They break. Tuivasa likely needs a finish if he wants to get his hand raised. Tuivasa lands an overhand right and Ivanov returns with a straight left. Another straight left by Ivanov. He lands another left hand, which has been money for him the whole fight. Low kick by Tuivasa. Both guys are absolutely exhausted right now. Jab by Ivanov. The fight comes to a close with both men absolutely exhausted. Terrible fight and you have to question the UFC’s decision to put this on the main card.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov (30-27 Ivanov)
Ant Walker scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov (30-27 Ivanov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ivanov (30-27 Ivanov)

The Official Result
Blagoy Ivanov def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
WIN vs Ben Rothwell
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos · Mar 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Blagoy Ivanov 0 72 of 178 40% 73 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 70 of 163 42% 70 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Blagoy Ivanov 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Blagoy Ivanov 0 29 of 75 38% 29 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Blagoy Ivanov 0 24 of 64 37% 25 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 33 of 82 40% 33 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Blagoy Ivanov 72 of 178 40% 50 of 156 19 of 19 3 of 3 70 of 175 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 70 of 163 42% 47 of 135 6 of 10 17 of 18 69 of 162 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Blagoy Ivanov 19 of 39 48% 11 of 31 8 of 8 0 of 0 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 9 of 22 40% 4 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 5 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Blagoy Ivanov 29 of 75 38% 24 of 70 4 of 4 1 of 1 29 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 28 of 59 47% 21 of 48 2 of 6 5 of 5 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Blagoy Ivanov 24 of 64 37% 15 of 55 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 63 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 33 of 82 40% 22 of 70 4 of 4 7 of 8 32 of 81 1 of 1 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Jul 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior dos Santos 0 110 of 248 44% 110 of 248 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 51 of 229 22% 51 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior dos Santos 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 5 of 26 19% 5 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Junior dos Santos 0 26 of 48 54% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 6 of 38 15% 6 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Junior dos Santos 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 8 of 45 17% 8 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
4 Junior dos Santos 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 15 of 59 25% 15 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Junior dos Santos 0 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 17 of 61 27% 17 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior dos Santos 110 of 248 44% 66 of 170 41 of 75 3 of 3 110 of 248 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 51 of 229 22% 40 of 213 10 of 15 1 of 1 49 of 227 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior dos Santos 8 of 28 28% 2 of 11 5 of 16 1 of 1 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 5 of 26 19% 4 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Junior dos Santos 26 of 48 54% 16 of 30 9 of 17 1 of 1 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 6 of 38 15% 3 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Junior dos Santos 19 of 48 39% 16 of 38 3 of 10 0 of 0 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 8 of 45 17% 6 of 40 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Junior dos Santos 20 of 57 35% 12 of 43 8 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 15 of 59 25% 13 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Junior dos Santos 37 of 67 55% 20 of 48 16 of 18 1 of 1 37 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 17 of 61 27% 14 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Augusto Sakai to win a very close decision. He thinks Sakai will land more volume and that Ivanov's grappling game plan is unlikely to materialize since Ivanov hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He notes that both fighters have great chins and have never been finished, so he expects a boring heavyweight fight that goes to the judges. He admits it's a close fight and wouldn't be surprised if Ivanov gets the decision.

"I'm going to side with Sakai to win by a very very close decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel picks Sakai, citing his improvements in diet and conditioning, his muay thai skills, and his ability to pressure and outwork Ivanov. He notes that Ivanov is one-dimensional, only countering with left hands, and that Sakai's volume and durability will be key. He believes Sakai can either knock out Ivanov or win a decision.

"i think sakai is the younger man the taller man the guy with the longer reach the guy that throws more volume the more durable guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The MMA Guru picks Augusto Sakai to win by first-round TKO. He compares Sakai to Derrick Lewis but with better technique and more fight IQ. He predicts Sakai will push Ivanov against the cage and land knees and elbows in the clinch for a finish.

Sakai by TKO in round 1
"August osika is gonna push block away up against a cage blast knees to the body blast elbows in the clinch getting the finish in the first round"