Career Averages - Brandon Royval
Career Averages - Tim Elliott
Brandon Royval - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 1 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 1 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 17 of 23 | 73% | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 17 of 23 | 73% | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)
Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.
Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.
Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 215 of 467 | 46% | 216 of 468 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 1 | 204 of 305 | 66% | 209 of 311 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 42 of 116 | 36% | 42 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 0 | 52 of 79 | 65% | 52 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 87 of 174 | 50% | 87 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 0 | 74 of 106 | 69% | 77 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 86 of 177 | 48% | 87 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 1 | 78 of 120 | 65% | 80 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 215 of 467 | 46% | 179 of 422 | 22 of 27 | 14 of 18 | 205 of 451 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 204 of 305 | 66% | 138 of 232 | 37 of 43 | 29 of 30 | 181 of 270 | 20 of 27 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 42 of 116 | 36% | 27 of 95 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 41 of 114 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 52 of 79 | 65% | 31 of 55 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 12 | 46 of 71 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 87 of 174 | 50% | 77 of 163 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 81 of 165 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 74 of 106 | 69% | 50 of 81 | 18 of 19 | 6 of 6 | 65 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 86 of 177 | 48% | 75 of 164 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 83 of 172 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 78 of 120 | 65% | 57 of 96 | 10 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 70 of 104 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-120), Royval (+100)
Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night,” flyweights roll the dice to see who may get the next crack at the champ. As it turns out, this de facto tournament will be resolved one bout later, when Alexandre Pantoja rematches Kai Kara-France for the throne. Having come up short in 2023, and already 0-2 against the champ Pantoja, Royval (17-7, 7-3 UFC) more than likely hopes there will be change in beltholder in about an hour. Looking to spoil the party of “Raw Dawg” will be the fast-rising 23-year-old Van (14-2, 7-1 UFC), who has shot up the ranks like a cannon and takes this bout on short notice. Despite that, Van is the betting favorite. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things on the up-and-up, although they kick off with a sporting fist bump.
Royval probes with his jab and sets up an early low kick. He digs a kick to the ribcage and goes back low to the calf on either side. Royval uses his reach to keep the younger man at bay, chipping away at him from a safe distance. For the first minute, Van is doing nothing more than taking potshots. Royval goes to the body again with his toes extended, and he rushes forward into the awaiting right hand from the 23-year-old. Van catches Royval twice more with his big right hand, and Royval shrugs them off and continues doing work from the outside. Royval splits the guard with jab after unanswered jab, moving and evading to not let Van get to him. Van misses on a right hand, and Royval clips him with his own short right hook. Van strikes the body with a right, and Royval reaches his target with jabs and a short check hook.
Van lands multiple blistering right hands, hitting “Raw Dawg” much harder than Royval has struck him yet. Royval goes to the body with a kick as he skirts away, and Van reaches him with a right. Van knocks Royval to his seat, although Royval stumbled on the way out. He bounces back to his feet, and Van is ready to crack him with another heavy right. Any time Royval closes the distance, Van has a right hand awaiting him. Van gets Royval’s attention twice, and Royval knees him hard in the chest. Van knocks Royval back a step with two powerful right hands on the cheek, and a third connects when Royval puts hands on him. Royval gets up close and personal, and although he delivers a single knee, Van rips the midsection with several fast fists. The strikes have marked up Royval’s nose, who does not appear concerned after getting hit hard. He potshots Van a few more times until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 2
The fighters tap gloves before engaging, and Royval gets right back to his high-volume, low-power approach. He jams Van in the sternum with a smattering of knees before backing off, where he takes a right hand on the way out. The two swing at one another, forming a cloud of feet and fists reminiscent of an Andy Capp comic. Van drills Royval at the end of two right hands, only to eat a sharp knee on the jaw. Royval drives him back with a flurry, and his body kick allows him to get in and swing a left. Royval stings Van with a straight left, and Van comes over the top with a right. Van gets off a clubbing right in the midst of Royval’s jab-a-palooza, and he absorbs a low kick and two powerful uppercuts. Royval plants a one-two on the chin to shake up the youngster from Myanmar, and he opens up with several more punches. Van stands in the pocket and bangs with him, with Royval getting knocked back and needing to reset, his nose leaking.
Royval starts putting more behind his punches, and Van is still hurling with power. The stats are racking up fast, and Van’s right hand is a weapon that seemingly cannot miss. Van drives a knee to the chest and follows with an overhand right, and Royval rifles off a number of piston-like jabs. Van misses with his right, and Royval works him with three speedy punches. Royval’s right cheek shows damage, and he gets stood up in a combo. Royval lets jab after jab land on the nose, and he follows with long, straight left hands. Van attacks the body, and just when he is about to gain momentum, Royval is on him with a powerful salvo. They continue to unload into one another’s faces, stealing the hearts of the crowd. Royval walks straight through a hard combination, fires back and gets staggered ever-so briefly. Royval goes to the body, and they swing it out to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 3
The flyweights tap gloves, and it takes nary a second for Royval to get behind his jab. He sways to avoid the worst of a right hand and fires back with a one-two. Van connects with a quick left hook, shaking Royval up with two more punches but eating a few on the way out. Van reaches out with a right hand, and he allows Royval to close in so he can smash him in the temple with his overhand right. Royval surges forward behind long arms, ignoring a few body shots to put his fists on Van’s face. Van cracks him with a huge right hand, and Royval just smiles. Royval drops a body kick on his foe, and they take a moment to compose themselves before going for broke again. Van lands a one-two, and Royval pays him right back with a knee up the middle and a few fiery fists back. Van gets in tight for a second to land body shots, and Royval disengages.
Royval drives four punches him, and Van drills him with a right hand that surprises Royval. The Factory x fighter takes a hard leg kick and goes to the body with his shin. The two brawl it out, and Royval may be bloody in the nose but he is not slowing down. Van digs a kick to the body, and Royval reaches him with a left. Van pays him back with a combo, and Royval gets in his face with a flurry. Royval goes to the body with a kick, and Van counters him up top. Royval strings together a three-punch combo, and he darts away before Van reaches him. Van stumbles his opponent with his power right, and he knees Royval in the nose. Royval checks a kick and crashes the pocket with an uppercut and several more punches. Van kicks Royval’s leg out, and he swings a right hand over the top. He catches Royval on the way in with a left, and Royval is not about to let him off the hook. With 15 seconds to go, the two batter and smash one another. Van knocks “Raw Dawg” to the mat in an insane exchange, following the former title challenger down to the mat and hammering him until time expires. What an incredible fight! Royval was hurt but made it to the end, and a new challenger has emerged. The flyweights delivered easily one of the best fights of the year, giving it everything they had and more. If only this one had two more rounds...in victory, Van proudly declares that whomever wins the title in the next match will have to go through him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Brandon Royval because he believes Royval is still in his prime and will be the best fighter Joshua Van has ever faced. He notes that Van's UFC record is loaded with wrestlers and lower-level guys, and the last time Van fought a predominant striker, he was finished in the third round. He placed a bet on Royval weeks ago and is confident in the pick.
Big Brady believes Royval is underrated, citing his wins over top competition like Taira, Moreno, and Nicolau. He notes Van has durability concerns, having been knocked out by Charles Johnson and hurt by Edgar Chairez. Brady thinks Royval's experience, cardio, and grappling advantage will be key, and predicts Royval will hurt Van, who will then shoot for a takedown and get submitted. He picks Royval by second-round submission.
Connor initially wanted to pick Van but was convinced by Phil that Royval's style is a bad matchup for Van. He notes that Royval has become a long-range volume fighter who can frustrate opponents, and Van has struggled against tall, rangy fighters. He also mentions Royval's durability and pace as factors. However, he is not fully confident because Royval's style is not championship-level and he gives away a lot.
The host acknowledges Royval's unorthodox striking may cause early trouble, but expects Van to land big shots in the second and third rounds, possibly getting a late TKO, but ultimately winning on the scorecards in the biggest win of his career.
The host picks Joshua Van, praising his boxing, head movement, and body work. He notes that Royval's volume often lacks sting and that Van's activity and recent form are advantages. He predicts Van will win a decision, taking the first two rounds, while Royval may take the third.
Zane is also leaning towards Royval after being convinced by Phil. He notes that Royval's leaf-blower style at range could be problematic for Van, who has struggled against fighters who keep him at distance. He also mentions that Royval is durable and has a high pace. However, he is not confident because Royval's style is not impressive and Van could potentially overwhelm him if he gets inside.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 124 of 232 | 53% | 172 of 287 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 2:23 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 80 of 143 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 12:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 29 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 56 of 78 | 71% | 81 of 105 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 43 of 74 | 58% | 57 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 1:26 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 124 of 232 | 53% | 114 of 216 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 97 of 203 | 11 of 12 | 16 of 17 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 42 of 99 | 42% | 34 of 91 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 55 | 30% | 12 of 46 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 56 of 78 | 71% | 54 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 52 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 16 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 5 of 21 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 43 of 74 | 58% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 14 of 36 | 38% | 12 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-225), Royval (+185)
Round 1
The UFC has chosen well with this all-action flyweight scrap capping off the fight card. Fresh off a revenge win over Brandon Moreno, Royval (16-7, 6-3 UFC) is energized and fully capable of playing spoiler. Taira (16-0, 6-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat, and his performances continue to dazzle as he works his way up the 125-pound ladder. The two are brought to the middle of the cage by referee Jason Herzog for final instructions, and they gladly bump fists before madness ensues. It’s on with the show. Royval hops in and out searching for an early jab, and he pitches out a high kick to further gauge his range. Royval has another head kick miss, and Taira tests his mettle with a light low kick. Royval connects with a body kick, and Taira changes levels on him. Royval defends with a guillotine choke, and he breaks free of the attempt with his back bouncing off the wall. Royval walks through a right hand to get off his own, and his subsequent head kick efforts continue missing. A straight left from Royval reddens the Japanese fighter’s nose, and he catches Taira coming in with another left hand. Royval kicks the body and spins around, with Taira getting off a right hand. Royval scores another body kick that does not get caught, and he snaps out a one-two to get Taira’s attention. Royval clubs his foe with a left hand, and he gets off another in short order before dancing away to a safe distance. Royval measures and clubs Taira once more with a left, having found its range with it and a body kick. Taira bends over and gets his hair buzzed with a back fist. Two more body kicks from Royval get through, and his jab splits the guard. Taira walks into a pair of punches, and he makes Royval stumble with a short combo and grabs hold of Royval from behind to drag him to the floor. Royval attacks a kneebar as soon as he hits a mat, and he transitions into a heel hook and tugs on it from the other side for an inverted variety. Taira turns but cannot get out of the leg danger, as Royval commits to it by rolling over. Taira slithers away from the submission, and Royval breaks free and darts after him with long punches before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 2
Royval is right in the center of the cage ready to pick up where he left off, and his long punches lead to a step-in knee. Taira threatens with a double, scooping Royval up and pushing off the fence to drag Royval down and take his back. Taira flattens Royval out for a moment, but Royval is a scrambler and he keeps moving any direction he can. Taira secures the body triangle to stifle the former title challenger’s escape attempts, and he slides over to take mount before stretching Royval out further. Royval scoots his way to put the wall behind him, with Taira sitting up and the leg grip still around his waist. Royval hand-fights to defend from a submission, and Taira looks to isolate a choke. Royval rolls over, turning twice until he grabs hold of Taira’s knee to spin him around. Taira further maintains control from behind, with Royval’s efforts in vain. Royval is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Taira sells out for a rear-naked choke. Taira turns to the other side to further sneak it in, and Royval is able to stop these attempts for the time being. Royval sits back down with Taira holding an unorthodox grip around his shoulder, and he uses it to put Royval on his back and reassume mount. Royval spins around to escape the first bad position, and Taira deftly slides through to get his back and shut Royval down by getting in half guard. Royval attacks a leglock, forcing Taira to stand up and pull his leg away. Royval works back to his feet in the waning seconds, and one body kick is all he gets off before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 3
Fists are bumped to get going, and a more tentative Royval gets countered over the top with a left hand. Taira reaches him with another left hook over the top, and Royval slugs him in the chops with a right hand. A straight left from Royval finds its home on the jaw, and he lands another few punches and a knee when Taira shoots for a takedown. Royval defends the double with several elbows to the side of the head, and he stands Taira up with a sharp knee. Royval breaks out of the attempt and goes wild with a flurry of strikes, shaking Taira up briefly. Taira’s recoverability is excellent, as he does not back up and instead stays just out of range. Royval bears down on him with a long left and an uppercut, and his uppercut clips Taira again when Taira tries to strike back. Royval gets energized by landing flush, hurting Taira with a flurry of fists. Taira shoots desperately for a takedown when he gets hurt with a salvo from “Raw Dawg.” Taira’s takedown is used against him, as Royval throws him to the mat and works on him with hammerfists. Royval thwarts another attempt, and Taira is fading fast as the woodchipper in Royval is on him chewing him up with punches and knees. Taira goes after another takedown, and it is not effective as he ducks face-first into a clean knee. Taira drops to the mat, and Royval follows him and beats on him with hammerfists on either side of the head. Taira tries to move, and Royval circles around to take Taira’s back and get hooks in. Royval searches for an armbar, rolling to his bell to lock it down, and Taira miraculously fights his way out of the sub and turns Royval around to get his back. Taira fastens the body triangle and starts hunting for his own submission. A rear-naked choke from the Japanese youngster sneaks around the jaw of his foe, and Royval decides to punch instead of fighting the hands. Royval grits it out and survives to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 4
Royval is fired up after his corner very loudly and dramatically informs him that he needs to crush this kid. Taira is not about to go down lightly, and the two flyweights meet in the center of the cage and trade hands violently. When Taira gets stung, he shoots in for a takedown. Royval balances thanks in part to a fence grab, although Taira still wrests him to the mat. Taira gets his hooks in and locks down the body triangle, with Royval pulling off the fence to try to spin himself about. Taira hunts for a choke, and Royval fights the body lock and turns to his knees. Taira’s body lock remains firmly around the midsection even sitting upright, and Royval rolls but is still snared in the web. Taira softens him up from behind with punches as Royval keeps turning, and he lands an elbow as he moves from position to position. When absorbing one particularly fierce elbow, Royval turns to his stomach, and he uses two-on-one control to wriggle himself out. Taira’s savvy back control further nullifies “Raw Dawg,” and he lets Royval roll to his back to get the body triangle again. Royval fights it off on one side, but Taira fastens it on the other. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Royval sits up and is near to escape, but time expires before he can. It could be all tied up now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 5
With five minutes left in the fight very likely even on the scorecards, Royval strikes first in the final round. Connecting with four or five early punches, Royval is forced to sprawl to stop a level change. Taira walks into a few punches after Royval stands up, and he reaches with a right but gets clubbed with an uppercut. Royval reaches out with a left hand, and he snipes Taira coming in with a few punches. Royval eats a pair of lefts to get driven back, and he slips in an uppercut. Taira swings a right hand into a takedown, and he puts Royval on his seat with three and a half minutes left in the round. Taira moves to north-south position with Royval pushing his heels off the fence to flip around. Taira nearly gets the back, but Royval reverses the position and pursues his own takedown to place Taira on his seat. Royval holds on from behind as Taira stands, and he elevates and slams the Japanese fighter down. Royval jumps on the back as Taira gets to his feet again, and slides off in a hurry. Taira breaks the grip and separates, and Royval walks him down and bloodies his foe’s nose. Taira loads up on power strikes, and Royval’s straight left remains a money punch. Royval seems to land cleanly whenever he wishes, and Taira dives after a desperate single but Royval stops it and knees his foe in the chest. Royval breaks free again and rails Taira with a step-in knee, and Taira knocks him back with a big right hand. Royval gets back in his face with a series of punches, and he gets pushed over when spinning back. Taira shoots for a double, and Royval jumps guard with a guillotine choke that he uses to roll into full mount. Royval sits up and lets Taira turn over to take his back, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke. Royval gets the body triangle at the same time, and he cranks on the neck. The neck crank does not get a tap, and tough as nails Taira survives to turn himself over. The final horn blares, and this back-and-forth battle comes to a close in an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate and one possibly worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. No matter who picks up the win, these two put on a show and stamp their places in the elite echelon of the 125-pound division.
Springing the upset, Royval showers his defeated opponent with compliments, while saying that he would be happy to do anything to further Taira’s career—a fighter that he confidently proclaims will be a champion one day. Royval states he alone deserves the next title shot at flyweight, due to wins over top-five talents Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France and now Taira. He asks to be backup for the Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura championship bout, or offers to fight in hostile territory to beat either man in their home country after UFC 310. If he gets the next crack at gold, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Brandon Royval, calling himself a Tatsuro Taira hater. He notes that Taira is undefeated but hasn't beaten top competition, and that Royval's pressure and experience will be too much. He mentions Royval's win over Brandon Moreno and his ability to land strikes even when taken down. Angelo bet half a unit on Royval at +170 and is also considering a plus 5.5 bet.
Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by decision. He notes that if it were a three-round fight, he'd be more confident, but the five rounds give him pause due to Royval's elite cardio and durability. However, Royval has terrible takedown defense (40%), and Taira's grappling control is elite. He compares it to Royval's fight with Pantoja, where Pantoja controlled him on the ground. Brady believes Taira can get takedowns at will and control rounds, though rounds 4-5 could get interesting. He expects Taira to win at least three rounds.
Cody believes Taira is a believer after his performance against Royval, showing improved striking, timing, physicality, and elite grappling. He notes Taira's ability to take down Royval six times and control him, despite Royval's scrambling and cardio. Cody sees Taira as more polished and refined than Park, with five-round experience and superior competition level. He expects Taira to roll through Park.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Royval's defensive wrestling is nonexistent and that Taira's grappling is a huge advantage. He notes that Royval's recent striking approach is static and ineffective, and that Taira should be able to take him down and control the fight. Connor is confident Taira wins unless he fights poorly.
Daniel acknowledges Taira's immense talent and undefeated record but questions if he's ready for a top-five test at age 24. He notes Royval's proven durability, pace, and experience against elite competition like Moreno and Pantoja. Daniel is tempted by the plus-190 odds on Royval and believes Taira may need to pay his dues first. He emphasizes that Royval gets better as fights progress and that Taira hasn't faced anyone with Royval's relentless pressure.
The host looked for a reason to take Royval as a big underdog but couldn't due to Taira's control and grappling. Royval is more disciplined but will struggle when Taira crashes the pocket and wraps him up. The host is not super high on Taira's chalk and prefers the over 3.5 rounds, but expects Taira to control the majority of the fight via grappling and win on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Taira's striking improvement and elite grappling. He highlights Taira's ability to get to the back and control opponents, and his five-round experience against top competition. Paul thinks Taira wins more often than not even at a sizable favorite price.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval as an upset, citing his scrambling ability, pressure, and durability. He questions Taira's hype, noting close fights with Perez and Shevchenko, and believes Royval can make Taira break in a five-round fight. He expects Royval to win by late-round TKO, as Taira hasn't faced someone as lanky and rangy, and Royval has shown he can hang with top flyweights like Pantoja and Moreno.
Zane picks Taira because Royval's defensive wrestling is terrible and Taira is a good takedown artist with dangerous ground control. He notes that Royval's striking volume is often ineffective and that Taira can find takedowns consistently. Zane believes Royval's only path is if Taira fights terribly, but otherwise Taira should win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 112 of 211 | 53% | 119 of 219 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 145 of 510 | 28% | 177 of 556 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 87 | 20% | 22 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 25 of 79 | 31% | 26 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 49 of 161 | 30% | 60 of 179 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 41 of 140 | 29% | 57 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 112 of 211 | 53% | 48 of 127 | 37 of 51 | 27 of 33 | 103 of 191 | 7 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
| Brandon Moreno | 145 of 510 | 28% | 97 of 437 | 38 of 54 | 10 of 19 | 142 of 504 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 15 of 23 | 65% | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 11 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Brandon Moreno | 18 of 87 | 20% | 7 of 66 | 8 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 31 | 54% | 7 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Brandon Moreno | 25 of 79 | 31% | 13 of 61 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 24 of 76 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 29 of 58 | 50% | 7 of 27 | 13 of 20 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 49 of 161 | 30% | 37 of 147 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 48 of 159 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 29 of 54 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 10 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 41 of 140 | 29% | 34 of 132 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Moreno, citing his pace, toughness, and improvement since their last fight. He believes Moreno is better everywhere and will eventually break Royval, likely in the fourth or fifth round. He notes Moreno already won this fight once and will do it again at home.
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He notes that Moreno has never been finished in 30 fights, which is crucial against a finisher like Royval. He believes Moreno has more paths to win, especially by taking the fight to the mat where Royval has poor takedown defense (40%). He thinks Moreno can control Royval on the ground and potentially submit him, but leans toward a decision. He questions Royval's ability to win a decision or finish Moreno.
Cody picks Moreno, citing Moreno's cast-iron chin, takedown ability, and the fact that Royval is coming in on short notice after a five-round war with Pantoja eight weeks ago. He notes Royval's takedown defense is a serious problem and that Moreno already beat him once. He acknowledges the line is justifiable and is not playing contrarian.
The host expects Moreno to replicate his first fight strategy by using his wrestling advantage to control Royval on the ground. He notes Moreno's good submission defense against Royval's aggressive style. Even if the fight stays standing, Moreno is the more technical striker. He predicts Moreno will grind out a decision victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moreno. He highlights Moreno's cast-iron durability as kryptonite to Royval's game, and notes that Moreno's ability to mix in takedowns will secure rounds in front of a hometown crowd. He also mentions Royval's short-notice turnaround and the altitude disadvantage, though Royval trains in Denver.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 95 of 156 | 60% | 126 of 195 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 111 of 204 | 54% | 281 of 390 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 27 of 40 | 67% | 29 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 24 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 80 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 63 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:21 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 41 of 74 | 55% | 49 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 55 of 98 | 56% | 70 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 95 of 156 | 60% | 49 of 101 | 22 of 30 | 24 of 25 | 74 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 20 |
| Brandon Royval | 111 of 204 | 54% | 102 of 193 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 91 of 177 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 27 of 40 | 67% | 9 of 19 | 10 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Brandon Royval | 13 of 30 | 43% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 10 of 15 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Brandon Royval | 12 of 16 | 75% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Royval | 24 of 46 | 52% | 21 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Royval | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 41 of 74 | 55% | 30 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 34 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Brandon Royval | 55 of 98 | 56% | 54 of 95 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 53 of 96 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Pantoja to win by finish in the third or fourth round, citing Pantoja's grappling advantage and Royval's low takedown defense. He notes that Pantoja already won the rematch two years ago and expects a similar outcome. He has a 'good size bet' on Pantoja.
Big Brady picks Pantoja to win by first-round submission, recalling their first fight where Pantoja was exhausted but capitalized on a Royval mistake to choke him out. He notes Royval's poor striking defense (50% striking defense) and tendency to make mistakes on the mat, giving up his back and position. Brady believes Pantoja's submission game is elite and that Royval cannot afford errors at this level. He expects an exciting banger but sees Pantoja finding a finish early.
Cody picks Royval as an underdog, citing his chaotic style, improved striking, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes that Royval trains at altitude in Denver and has solid cardio, while Pantoja's cardio is overblown but his body language looks tired. Cody acknowledges the risk: Royval has durability issues and was submitted by Pantoja before, but at +160 he sees value.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brandon Royval as an upset, attributing Royval's loss in the first fight to a rushed return from injury. He believes Royval's striking has improved and that his scrambles will keep the fight on the feet. Vreeland notes Royval's recent wins over Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France by submission show his dangerous ground game. He thinks Royval can hang with Pantoja on the feet and win the rematch.
Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, stating he is the better fighter overall and has already beaten Royval. He questions the quality of Royval's recent opponents, noting that Pantoja has faced tougher competition. Fox believes Pantoja will successfully defend his title for the first time.
Lucrative James picks Brandon Royval outright. He believes Royval was breaking Pantoja in their first fight before getting submitted, and he thinks Royval's pace is the highest at flyweight. He argues that Pantoja may have been breaking and that Royval's motivation is higher as the challenger. He acknowledges Pantoja's submission threat but feels the value is on Royval as an underdog.
The host favors Pantoja due to his discipline, technique, and masterful Jiu-Jitsu, which he believes will be too much for Royval's chaotic style. He notes that in their first fight, Pantoja consistently secured Royval's back and eventually got a rear-naked choke. He also points out Royval's poor takedown defense and expects Pantoja to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. He acknowledges Royval's upset potential but trusts the more reliable fighter.
Paul picks Pantoja, arguing that Royval's level of competition is lower and that Pantoja has never been finished. He points to Pantoja's performance against Brandon Moreno where he landed 129 significant strikes, a knockdown, and six takedowns. Paul believes Pantoja's cardio issues are overblown and that Royval tends to fade in dogfights, while Pantoja is an absolute dog.
The Guru picks Pantoja over Royval, noting Pantoja's improved ground control and back-taking ability, as seen against Moreno and Perez. He acknowledges Royval's scrambling but believes Pantoja's chin is solid and Royval is hittable. He predicts Pantoja will knock down Royval and secure a rear-naked choke in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.
Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.
Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.
Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.
Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.
Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Matt Schnell | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Matt Schnell | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Royval (-240), Schnell (+195)
Round 1
The opener of the prelim card – which differs slightly from the early preliminaries even if they remain on the same network – is sure to be a wild one for as long as it lasts. All-action Royval (13-6, 3-2 UFC) ended the first two-fight skid of his career in January by claiming a decision over Rogerio Bontorin, while Schnell (15-5, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) will be returning to action for the first time in nearly a year since he also took on Bontorin. Of note, while Schnell did drop a decision to Bontorin that night, Bontorin tested positive for banned supplements and the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation overturned it to a no contest. Both looking to get the taste of Bontorin out of their mouths, so to speak, they touch gloves in front of referee Ryan Brueggeman to move along in their careers. Schnell starts off with a barrage of punches, and Royval greets him with punches and a head kick of his own. Royval steps in with a knee to back Schnell off, and Royval slings a few head kicks for good measure. Royval goes low and then high with kicks, and Schnell walks through them to launch a right hand. These two flyweights are swinging for the fences early, and both are connecting frequently. Schnell snaps the head back with a left hand, and Royval responds with a left of his own. Schnell bears down on him and drills Royval with a right hand, and Royval hits the ground and immediately goes fishing for a leglock. Royval rolls for a heel hook, and Schnell turns all his way around and through it to lower himself to the mat on top. Royval sets up an omoplata shoulder lock to force a sweep, and Schnell wrenches his arm free and snags hold of a guillotine choke. Royval rolls through it and looks for a brabo choke.
This does not land, so “Raw Dawg” turns it to a guillotine choke. As soon as he cinches it up, he pulls guard and locks a leg around Schnell’s waist. The grip from Royval is so crushingly tight that Schnell thinks about fighting out of it, and suddenly realizes he is in grave danger and taps out with both hands.
Brueggeman takes a moment to register the taps, and he jumps in to separate the fighters after their short but memorable thriller.
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Matt Schnell R1 2:14 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Brandon Royval, citing his forward pressure and sneaky grappling as the difference. He notes that both fighters are willing to bang but Royval is a better pure grappler. He expects a potential fight of the night.
Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a nightmare matchup for Schnell because Royval will force a brawl, and Schnell has a history of being knocked out (by Font, Sandoval, Pantoja). Schnell has changed his style to be more cautious, but Royval's pressure will drag him into a war. Royval has the striking advantage, durability, and dangerous ground game. Schnell is not a strong offensive wrestler, so he cannot exploit Royval's poor takedown defense. Brady expects Royval to finish Schnell in brutal fashion in the first round.
Cody picks Brandon Royval, noting that Schnell's chin is suspect and Royval's unorthodox striking and grappling are at a higher level. He points out that Royval has wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, while Schnell has beaten lower-level opposition. Cody believes Royval can win standing or on the ground, and expects a stoppage. He is confident in Royval as one of his key plays.
Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Royval's pace, pressure, and opportunistic submissions. He notes Schnell is technically sound but lacks durability and takedown ability. He considers a KO prop for Royval at +460 but does not pull the trigger.
The host picks Royval to win but prefers betting the under 2.5 rounds at -145. He highlights Royval's chaotic style that overwhelms opponents, using the Kai Kara-France fight as an example. He notes Schnell is technically better but will struggle with Royval's pace and unpredictability. He acknowledges Royval leaves himself vulnerable to submissions, but expects the fight to end inside the distance, likely with Royval winning. He is concerned about Royval's price at -235 and prefers the under.
Paul picks Brandon Royval and is also interested in the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Schnell has chin issues and Royval's volume and pace could clip him. Paul thinks Royval can get a finish, but also acknowledges that Royval's own pace could lead to him wilting. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop and plans to parlay it with the Cerrone-Lauzon under.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval, citing his wildness and finishing ability. He notes Royval has good submissions and KO power, and believes he will bait Schnell into a scrap and catch him. He criticizes Schnell's chin and predictable style. He predicts a first-round TKO, possibly via spinning elbow.
Tim Elliott - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 90 of 261 | 34% | 93 of 265 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 136 of 254 | 53% | 136 of 254 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 40 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 28 of 79 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 47 of 85 | 55% | 47 of 85 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 24 of 92 | 26% | 25 of 93 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 65 of 114 | 57% | 65 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 90 of 261 | 34% | 44 of 191 | 11 of 27 | 35 of 43 | 87 of 255 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 136 of 254 | 53% | 122 of 236 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 129 of 245 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 39 of 91 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 5 of 15 | 14 of 19 | 39 of 89 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 24 of 55 | 43% | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 27 of 78 | 34% | 10 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 14 | 24 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 47 of 85 | 55% | 44 of 82 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 24 of 92 | 26% | 14 of 78 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 24 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 65 of 114 | 57% | 57 of 102 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 64 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Elliott (21-13; 10-11 UFC), one of the flyweight division’s top spoilers over the last several years, looks to take that role once again in this featured clash with Perth’s own, “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4; 4-3 UFC). Lukasz Bosacki is the referee on duty. Both men are in orthodox stance and Elliott immediately starts with his oddball striking attack, switching stances, hanging his hands at his waist and stabbing out with Jon Jones-style oblique kicks at Erceg’s lead leg. The contrast could not be much greater, as Erceg comes forward in his classic, composed upright stance. Through the first 90 seconds, the resulting collisions are sporadic and awkward; Erceg slides forward but refuses to be drawn into a wild firefight, while Elliott lands sporadic strikes but can’t string anything together. A little past the halfway mark, Erceg lands a clean one-two that represents the best offense by either man thus far. Erceg appears to be growing more and more comfortable, but Elliott catches him with a sweeping right hand that hurts him. Again, Elliott can’t follow up, and Erceg recovers. Erceg places a couple of stiff jabs on Elliott’s chin, and takes a glancing hook in return. Elliott changes levels and gets a fast takedown against the fence, but Erceg gets right back up. They separate, meet in the center of the cage and Elliott gets another takedown right after the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds. 10-9 Elliott.
Round 2
Elliott is switching stances constantly as they meet in the middle of the cage for Round 2. Erceg again pursues in disciplined fashion, sliding forward and cutting off the cage while Elliott springs in and out of range, spins and throws off-balance single strikes. Elliott is talking, but a minute in, it’s Erceg landing the cleaner, sharper punches. Elliott’s kicks are effective, landing to Erceg’s lead left leg from both sides, mixing in some body work. Elliott changes levels and grounds the Australian with a double-leg, but Erceg pops back to his feet instantly. They disengage and meet against in the center of the Octagon, and it’s Erceg launching a takedown attempt, which Elliott defends. Erceg gets the better of a couple of pocket exchanges, then gets a clean takedown in the middle of the cage. Elliott escapes to his feet and scores a takedown of his own. Erceg escapes to his feet with a minute left and tags Elliott with two unblocked punches. Elliott is hurt but far from out of it, marching forward and swinging big. Erceg gives ground, plants and returns fire with more accurate punches to the head. It’s still competitive, but the momentum has definitely swung the other way as the horn sounds. 10-9 Erceg.
Round 3
Erceg walks down Elliott, who comes up just short with a superman punch. Erceg’s jab continues to define the fight, as he can’t seem to miss with it. The jab is scoring for Erceg, answering everything Elliott throws at him and preventing the American from building any kind of momentum. Elliott hacks away at Erceg’s left leg with two hard low kicks. Erceg suddenly launches a big high kick that glances off of Elliott’s guard, then goes right back to work with his bread-and-butter jab and right cross. Elliott is still in Erceg’s face at the midpoint of the round, coming forward with big swinging punches, and Erceg is calmly sniping him on the counter every single time. Elliott drops levels and runs Erceg all the way across the cage with a double-leg, depositing him on his butt at the base of the fence. Erceg gets right back up and Elliott disengages rather than keep wrestling. When they meet again it’s more of the same: Erceg slipping big telegraphed attacks from Elliott and returning fire with ultra-clean punches. The horn sounds on what was, by the end, a quietly dominant performance for Steve Erceg. 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg).
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.
Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.
Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.
Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.
The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.
Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 71 | 38% | 42 of 88 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 21 of 87 | 24% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 11 of 45 | 24% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 18 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 10 of 42 | 23% | 18 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 27 of 71 | 38% | 18 of 43 | 2 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 26 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Kai Asakura | 21 of 87 | 24% | 17 of 79 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 16 of 40 | 40% | 9 of 24 | 1 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kai Asakura | 11 of 45 | 24% | 8 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Kai Asakura | 10 of 42 | 23% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Asakura (-310), Elliott (+250)
Round 1
It’s main card time, and a pair of exciting flyweights will start off this $85 event—regional pricing notwithstanding. After over a year and a half away, elder statesman Elliott (20-13-1, 9-11 UFC) comes back to the cage to take on former title challenger and ex-Rizin champ Asakura (21-5, 0-1 UFC). The latter is looking for his first UFC win, as he was thrust into a championship opportunity in his December debut, and he fights down the rankings board to find his place in the division. The two will have referee Rob Madrigal overseeing what should be a fun one, and they do not tap their gloves together to engage.
Elliott fakes a giant spinning kick to lead off, and he lowers his hands and starts tossing out flashy kicks. Asakura answers him with two powerful punches upstairs, and Elliott still does not pick his hands up. Elliott hops up and down while switching stances, drawing out a few more punches that he avoids successfully before pitching a head kick. Elliott spins with a back kick, and he absorbs three punches to the body and head from the Japanese flyweight. Asakura bears down on Elliott to strike him a few times, and he rocks the former Glory MMA fighter with his big swings. Elliott swings back hard too, and he nods to Asakura that he got caught. Elliott waves his hands around awkwardly waiting for Asakura to engage, and he misses his strikes including an open-handed slap.
Asakura nails the longtime vet with a right hand and a left hook that drives Elliott to the wall, but Elliott bounces away no harm done. Asakura beats his man to the punch with his long strikes, and Elliott’s offense is barely going at all. Asakura puts a one-two down the pipe that cuts open Elliott’s left eyebrow, and he gets off a knee to the body and several punches after it. Elliott bounces back, landing a single low kick but getting potshotted by Asakura. Elliott tags his foe at the end of a single right hand, but it is one-and-done as he gets back to unorthodox movements and attacks like a cartwheel kick. Asakura boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott ducks down and secures a double to advance immediately to the side. Elliott spams surprisingly heavy knees to the body to open up elbows, and he briefly traps Asakura’s arm beneath his leg to open up more strikes. Elliott elbows a few more times, and Asakura scrambles to stand as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Round 2
As the second round begins, Elliott motions to the crowd to get excited and then somersaults towards his opponent. Asakura ignores it and lets Elliott stand up so he can plant his fist in his face. Elliott’s strange movement opens up a heavy left hand for him, and he connects a second in the middle of Asakura’s counters. Chants in favor of Elliott rain down, but no one does anything to take advantage of that energy. Asakura scores a leg kick, and Elliott goes to the body and then flails his way forward with fists flying. Elliott slips and rips with a left hand, and he winds up another and catches Asakura flush on the jaw. Asakura comes up short with a flying knee, and Elliott dodges the worst of them and is right back in Asakura’s face with a left hook zooming. Asakura times a solid right hand with Elliott ducking, and Elliott just smiles at him. How demoralizing.
Elliott jams Asakura in the knee with a pair of stomping kicks, and his low kicks that follow disrupt the wide-swinging Asakura. Elliott keeps himself afloat with decent movement, especially upstairs, but he still takes the occasional power punch that turns his different parts of his face a shade of crimson. Elliott runs at his opponent and secures a takedown, but when he circles to take the back, Asakura is able to escape. Asakura just misses with two booming hooks, and Elliott is as wild as ever as he ducks some punches, dances around and shoots with a takedown. Asakura sits up, and Elliott threatens with a guillotine choke and uses it to relocate himself to full mount. Asakura pushes with all his might to relieve the pressure, but his eyes start to bulge and his face changes colors. Even with little time left in the round, Asakura cannot ride it out any longer. The former Rizin champ taps out twice on the hip, and Elliott has just pulled off quite an upset. The year is 2025 and Tim Elliott has just finished a fight over a man many years his junior.
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Kai Asakura R2 4:39 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo questions why Asakura is a 3-to-1 favorite given his lack of UFC success and poor takedown defense. He believes Elliott's grit, forward pressure, and grappling can overwhelm Asakura, despite Elliott's age and layoff. He picks Elliott, rooting for him due to his personal story.
Big Brady picks Kai Asakura to win by second-round knockout. He is worried about Tim Elliott's age (38), layoff (1 year 8 months), and cardio. He thinks Asakura has good takedown defense and nasty striking with power. He notes Elliott hasn't faced many power punchers and that Asakura is a big favorite. He also questions Elliott's training camp. He expects Asakura to finish Elliott.
Connor picks Asakura, but with low confidence, noting that Asakura is an insanely talented intercepting striker with good scrambling wrestling. He believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could lead to Elliott's first knockout loss, as Elliott is very hittable. However, he acknowledges that Elliott's tenacity and chain wrestling could exhaust Asakura, and that Asakura's defense is poor.
The host acknowledges Asakura's finishing nature but highlights Elliott's elite flyweight grappling and record. He expects Elliott to avoid Asakura's finishing style, grind him against the cage, take him down, and win by decision with top control.
The Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by first-round KO over Tim Elliott. He believes Asakura is more dynamic, physical, and has finishing potential. The Guru notes that Elliott lacks power and will not be able to earn Asakura's respect on the feet. He predicts Asakura will eat a few shots, realize he can take them, and then finish Elliott with a brutal combination. The Guru also mentions Elliott's age and lack of motivation as factors.
Zane picks Asakura, but is not confident, noting that Asakura's style is high-risk and that Elliott is durable and has never been knocked out. He points out that Asakura's defense is poor but he stays focused and is hard to hurt. Zane believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could be too much for Elliott, but he acknowledges that Elliott's wrestling could be a problem if he gets takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Sumudaerji | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Sumudaerji | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-165), Mudarji (+135)
Round 1
Stepping up a few days ago to replace Allan Nascimento, former flyweight title challenger Elliott (19-13-1, 8-11 UFC) pops into this now-bantamweight bash with Mudaerji (16-5, 3-2 UFC). This scrap that could—and very well may—take place anywhere will be overseen by referee Herb Dean, and he is ready for what comes next. The fighters touch ‘em up, and Elliott somersaults his way in to kick Mudaerji. Mudaerji shrugs it off, and Elliott keeps his knee up high to fluster his opponent. Mudaerji tries to pick off the veteran from range, and he gets in long strikes every so often to get Elliott’s attention. Mudaerji stays composed and does not fall for many of the awkward movements from Elliott, and he picks his shots carefully and stings Elliott with a right hand. Mudaerji boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott grabs hold of the leg and tries to take him down. Mudaerji keeps his balance, but he gets clipped with a right hook when setting it down. Mudaerji connects with a clean left hand, and he strings several punches together until Elliott charges at him to go after a single. Elliott lifts Mudaerji’s leg above his head and elbows the Chinese fighter in the face, and he trips Mudaerji up and tosses him to the canvas. Elliott slithers his way over to half guard as he grinds on Mudaerji with elbows, and he draws blood as Mudaerji turns to his side. Elliott keeps his arm around Mudaerji’s head to threaten with a potential submission should Mudaerji sit up, and Elliott drills him with an elbow.
Elliott leaps over to the other side and locks down an arm-triangle choke, and the choke is instantly in and tight. Elliott presses down his full body weight, and blood sprays from Mudaerji’s mouth in a brutal, cinematic moment as Mudaerji loses consciousness.
Dean recognizes that Mudaerji is done, checking the arm of “Tibetan Eagle” and seeing there is no resistance, and he yanks Elliot off of the unconscious fighter. This is a great feather in the cap of the veteran, who earns his first finish since December 2017 with the technical submission.
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Su Mudaerji R1 4:02 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Cody picks Sumudaerji because he doubts Tim Elliott's conditioning. He notes that Elliott took the fight on three days' notice and has only trained twice. Cody thinks Elliott's cardio is already suspect and will fade quickly. He believes Sumudaerji has a good left hand and can capitalize if Elliott tires. Cody suggests this is a better live bet opportunity, but for a pre-fight pick, he goes with Sumudaerji.
Lucrative James acknowledges the volatility due to Elliott taking the fight on short notice after a recent grappling match. He sees a massive striking advantage for Sumudaerji and thinks he could crack Elliott. However, he notes Elliott's massive grappling edge and that Sumudaerji has been submitted in all his losses. He leans Sumudaerji but passes on betting because the line is +110 and he can't lay that with the grappling disparity. He picks Sumudaerji for the win.
Paul picks Tim Elliott but is curious about the submission prop. He notes that Elliott's wrestling and ground game are superior, and Sumudaerji has poor submission defense. Paul thinks Elliott can find a submission if he plays his cards right. He acknowledges Elliott's cardio issues but believes the grappling advantage is significant. Paul is waiting for the Elliott by submission prop to open and hopes for a price around +400 to +500.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 71 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 118 of 146 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 40 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 33 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 60 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:56 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 43 | 69% | 19 of 30 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 33 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 20 of 31 | 64% | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Tim Elliott | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Tim Elliott | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-485), Elliott (+370)
Round 1
Generations will clash in the preliminary headliner, when old guard representative Elliott (19-12-1, 8-10 UFC) tries to teach 23-year-old up-and-comer Mokaev (10-0, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) a thing or two. Before a torch is or is not passed at 125 pounds, referee Jason Herzog lights it. The gloves are touched, and Elliott hops forward with his leg up and gets swatted back. Mokaev tags his opponent, but Elliott powers through it to hit a takedown and put the youngster on his back early. Mokaev looks to hook an elbow from off his back and stifle anything coming down on him, but Elliott elects to simply smack “The Punisher” in the jaw with that wing. Elliott drops down a couple elbows until Mokaev scrambles back up to his feet, and Elliott is quick to stuff a takedown that comes at him. Elliott skims the Dagestan-born fighter’s forehead with an elbow, and he chases after Mokaev with his hands down. Mokaev attempts another takedown, and he is stopped in his tracks. Mokaev puts his hands on the mat, and Elliot knees him twice with questionable strikes – largely depending on the amount of weight Mokaev had on his hands. Mokaev is fine, and the fight resumes. Elliott spins with a back kick, and his awkward kicks are frustrating the younger fighter. Mokaev lunges with a right hand, and he trips up the veteran and takes him down. Elliott snatches up a guillotine choke and torques with all his might, and Mokaev appears unconcerned at the submission and allows Elliott to gas his arms out. Elliott goes after the submission again when fully hitting his back, and that second attempt also falls short. Elliott hacks with elbows off his back, and Mokaev tries to get busy with short body shots. Elliott defends himself from anything of merit, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
When the second round opens, Mokaev shoots directly into a double. Elliott sees this coming and clamps down a guillotine choke. Mokaev, patient and calm, does not struggle or do much to put himself in harm’s way. Instead, he does the right things to step to the side and wriggle his neck out, and he moves to top position as Elliott elbows him illegally behind the head several times. Elliott is the active striker of the two despite Mokaev on top of him, although few strikes of merit connect on either side. Mokaev clings to the former title challenger while looking to pass, but Elliott’s guard keeps him at bay. Mokaev sits up, and he falls right into a triangle choke trap. Elliott grips hold of an armbar to make things worse, and “The Punisher” uses all of his might to lift Elliott in the air and slam him down to break up the submission. Both fighters flail their fists while in the horizontal position, and Elliott hooks his leg around Mokaev’s arm to stifle him. Mokaev settles to grind out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 3
The awkward stylings of Elliott allow him to close the distance without absorbing anything but a front kick, and he walks forward until Mokaev attempts a takedown. Elliott elbows his man in the top of the head, and after two close ones, Mokaev puts his hands on the mat and is struck with the third that is called a foul. Herzog calls time and gives Mokaev moments to recover, and Mokaev walks around getting the crowd excited. The replay shows the strikes were legal, and Herzog resets them in the same position. Mokaev uses this moment of confusion when they resume to snatch up Elliott’s ankle and flip him over in a slick maneuver. Mokaev does little with the position when he claims it, holding Elliott down and disallowing him from getting up. Elliott grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and this lets Mokaev counter him with a Von Preux setup of the shoulder over his foe’s neck. Elliott releases the grip, but “The Punisher” punishes him for making this mistake by locking down the arm-triangle choke. Mokaev, who slithers into mount, steps partially to the side and presses his full body weight down to complete the submission. Elliott does not need long before tapping out, and Mokaev has recorded the biggest win of his career impressively.
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Tim Elliott R3 3:03 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.
Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.
Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.
James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.
Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.
Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 153 of 237 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 11:13 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 102 of 142 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 44 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 47 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 49 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 35 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 60 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 28 of 57 | 49% | 22 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 |
| Victor Altamirano | 19 of 39 | 48% | 10 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 9 of 14 | 64% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 |
| Victor Altamirano | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Victor Altamirano | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 14 of 34 | 41% | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 |
| Victor Altamirano | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-175), Altamirano (+150)
Round 1
This flyweight affair figures to be a wild one, as former title challenger Elliott (18-12-1, 7-10 UFC) has gone through a lot lately and is looking to push past personal drama to record a win. He faces Texan Altamirano (12-2, 2-1 UFC), who has strung two wins together on his own ledger. This potentially high-paced contest will have referee Mark Smith serve as the Octagon ranger, and the amped up fighters touch gloves quickly. Altamirano leaps out from his corner with kicks, and as he does, Elliott grabs hold of one and lowers him to the floor. Altamirano defends when his seat hits the mat with powerful hammerfists, and Elliott responds with his own from on top. Altamirano is active on his back with strikes and movement, wriggling and trying to force a scramble or irritate Elliott enough with his blows to slow offense. Altamirano kicks off the chest to fight his way up, and when he is upright again, he throws a low kick. Elliott catches it and dumps his man to the floor, and he starts unloading with Donkey Kong-esque hammerfists. Altamirano threatens with an armbar off his back, and Elliott shucks it off so that he can continue striking. Altamirano sets up a high guard and considers another armbar, and Elliott once more pushes through it to land shots. Altamirano stays busy with an offensive guard, despite the strikes landing on his face repeatedly, and the veteran Elliott sees the setups and knows how to avoid any of them from getting too close. Elliott stands up to stack his man up, and he lowers himself back down while dropping punches. Elliott grinds his forehead on the opponent, slugging away all the while. Elliott is seemingly frantic with his strikes, but doing so allows him to not set up a pattern that can allow him to fall into a trap. Altamirano tries to secure another armbar, and Elliott tosses it aside to punch “El Magnifico” in the face. Elliott keeps beating on Altamirano, with no strike individually immensely powerful, but the number is adding up fast. The round ends, and Smith is quick to get between them as they still want to keep going at it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The fighters toss out a glove touch just before engaging, and Elliott walks into a leg kick and a right hand. Altamirano gets up close, and Elliott manages to force a scramble that lets him dump Altamirano to his back. Elliott looks to pick up where he left off, with erratic ground strikes and no fear of Altamirano’s guard. Elliott places his knee on his foe’s to pry open the guard, and he drags his elbow back and forth on Altamirano’s face as if he were trying to saw a log with it. Elliott postures up after landing some strikes, and he allows Altamirano to stand up so that he can drive several knees to the body. Altamirano celebrates the standing position again by booting Elliott upside the head, and the former title challenger is stung and ends up falling to his back. Altamirano climbs on top of him, and he laces an elbow over the top while Elliott maintains butterfly hooks. Elliott manages to kick off, and he darts forward with a right hand. Altamirano responds with a single, and Elliott drops down for a guillotine choke that has no legs to it. Elliott lines up a left hand, a haymaker from downtown, and he succeeds in blasting Altamirano in the head with it. Elliott takes advantage of this by bowling Altamirano over, and he moves on top even as Altamirano turns to his side in an effort to escape. Elliott settles for controlling position as he looks to move into a more traditional position on top, and he shifts into the guard that closes around him. Elliott grinds his forehead in the eye socket, and Altamirano throws his legs up for something, anything. Elliott ignores this so he can mount some offense, and he proceeds to batter Altamirano until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 3
Elliott practically runs out of his corner to start kicking, and he lifts his leg up in the air to hop forward and kick down with a stomp to the knee. Elliott hops back and forth, springing to the side, and Smith tells to fight. Elliott obliges him by swinging a monstrous right hand, and Altamirano eats it like brisket and strikes back. Altamirano slips a kick up to the head, and Elliott ducks into a subsequent kick and avoids a spinning wheel kick. The kicks from the Texan open him up to grappling, and Elliott exploits this with an easy takedown. Elliott leans Altamirano up against the cage between the corner of the floor and the wall, and he sits in the guard slamming Altamirano with elbows. Altamirano keeps his guard up to not let many get through, but Elliott is busy attacking while Altamirano is stuck defending on his back. Altamirano gets dragged out from sitting up so that Elliott can keep working him over, and Altamirano tries and fails for a high guard to a submission effort. Elliott remains active on top with movement and control, but he lacks offense as Smith grows restless. Altamirano explodes to his seat and up, and Elliott meets him on the way up with a knee that was borderline. Altamirano gets up and releases a head kick, and Elliott takes it on the chin and keeps on chugging. Altamirano strings a few punches together into a leg kick, and Elliott gathers his thoughts and secures a takedown to place the Texan flat on his back. Elliott lands in the guard, and Altamirano closes it up and hangs on to prevent getting struck. Elliott grinds with a few elbows as Altamirano feebly tosses his legs up for an armbar. Elliott keeps on striking right to the bitter end, and he stands and marches away with a frown on his face at the sound of the horn, expecting he will get his hand raised very shortly.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.
Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.
Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.
Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.
Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.
Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.
Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 1 | 79 of 179 | 44% | 117 of 227 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 90 of 186 | 48% | 111 of 212 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 1 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 44 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 44 of 76 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 47 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 79 of 179 | 44% | 30 of 113 | 15 of 26 | 34 of 40 | 64 of 160 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 90 of 186 | 48% | 70 of 162 | 15 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 65 of 158 | 23 of 26 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 36 of 82 | 43% | 16 of 52 | 6 of 14 | 14 of 16 | 31 of 76 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 38 of 78 | 48% | 30 of 68 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 73 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 23 of 52 | 44% | 9 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 40 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 21 of 45 | 46% | 18 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 20 of 45 | 44% | 5 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 | 19 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 31 of 63 | 49% | 22 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 50 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s the U.S. vs. Russia up now in the flyweight division, as former title challenger Elliott (17-12-1, 6-10 UFC) will try to become the second fighter to beat Ulanbekov (14-1, 2-0 UFC) as a pro. Having laced up his shoes, referee Chris Tognoni is now prepared for what could be a thrilling, fast-paced grappling affair for as long as it lasts. The gloves get touched, and Elliott swings with a spinning back kick that is well out of the way. Elliott turns through to score a leg kick, and Ulanbekov dings him up with two jabs and a one-two. Elliott keeps his hands down, and Ulanbekov cracks him with a right hand and follows it with a front kick. Elliott ignores the strikes to wade forward, throwing unorthodox strikes like stomp kicks to the knee and whipping uppercuts. The American charges ahead and secures a quick takedown, and Ulanbekov fights his way back to his knees. Elliott blasts him in the face with a knee, and it is unclear if Ulanbekov’s knee was off the ground as to whether it was illegal or legal, but it appeared that Ulanbekov’s knee was down. Despite this, we continue, and Elliott shouts at his man to come on and fight him. Elliott blitzes forward, landing punches and low kicks, and evading the strikes with odd, bobbing head movement. Ulanbekov replies with a punch to the chest, and he checks a kick but gets smacked with a left hand. Ulanbekov is much more composed with jabs, but as he flicks one out, the ex-title challenger darts forward and lands another takedown. The Russian is not down for more than one second before exploding back up, and Elliott is quick to chase him down and land another. Ulanbekov sweeps him after a wide scramble, and he gets back to his feet. Tognoni calls time as Elliott sticks his hands out to strike, and he warns Elliott from keeping his fingers outstretched while Elliott protests. The fight resumes, and Elliott lands a front kick to the body and a low kick. Elliott dips a few punches, eats a couple more, and slings a left hook that slides off the side of Ulanbekov’s head. Elliott tries to step in with an elbow, and as he does, Ulanbekov drills him with a few punches. Elliott laughs them off, keeps his self-described movement awkward, and he turns his hips while launching a massive left hand. The strike sends Ulanbekov crashing down to the mat, and he appears to get back up after the flash knockdown only into the hands of Elliott, who takes him down. Ulanbekov powers his way back up, gets popped with another questionable knee when he was standing, and he starts talking to his corner. The wild and crazy round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The gloves get touched to start the second round, and Elliott comes out with a brief swarm of punches. Ulanbekov is energized, and he returns fire with a salvo of his own. Elliott just misses with a huge overhand right, and he windmills a left that follows that blows Ulanbekov’s hair back. The Russian mixes things up with a takedown try, and Elliott sprawls well and pops right back up. Ulanbekov gets off a few right hands, appearing to have started to time the head movement, and he ignores the counters from Elliott to score a hard right hand. When Elliott marches forward, Ulanbekov hits a double that puts the former title challenger on his seat momentarily. Elliott scoots his way to the wall to power back up, and when Ulanbekov tries to secure a mat return, Elliott scrambles to wind up on top. As they both get back up to their feet, Elliott lands a few punches that make Ulanbekov blow his nose out. Ulanbekov drills Elliott in the jaw with a right hand, and Elliott comes forward to clinch. Elliott grabs his foe’s glove and cracks Ulanbekov with a punch from his other hand, and Ulanbekov protests to draw a warning from Tognoni. They both try to set up a takedown after this confusion, and a furious scramble ensues where Elliott is able to take top position and even snag mount for a couple seconds. Ulanbekov fights his way back up, and he lifts Elliott in the air but cannot wrangle him, as the former title challenger circles around to take top position until Ulanbekov bucks him off. They tie up, and start belting one another with short elbows and punches. Elliott grabs Ulanbekov’s glove again and tries to slug him in the face, but Ulanbekov is able to evade the blow and he shoots for a double that plows Elliott in the wall. Ulanbekov holds on tight, not letting Elliott get space, and ignoring when Elliott starts chattering at him. Elliott fights off one takedown, and he throws up a guillotine right when the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 3
The last round begins with no glove touch, as replays show several uncalled illegal moves that Elliott got away with in the previous round, all while Ulanbekov’s coach Khabib Nurmagomedov is incensed. Dundasso is alive and well in the Octagon tonight. The action starts off with Elliott attacking, working the body with kicks and a few punches. Ulanbekov replies with a single crisp elbow, and he backs off and marks Elliott up with a one-two. A cut opens up on the corner of Ulanbekov’s eye, but it does not appear to be from a punch but rather from when they clacked heads when they were tied up. They clinch up again just long enough for Ulanbekov to work the body with several knees, and Ulanbekov hops back and dives forward with a double-leg takedown. Elliott sprawls, using the fence as his ally, but Ulanbekov lifts his leg off the ground to drop Elliott to a knee. Ulanbekov tries to elevate the ex-title challenger again, to no avail, as Elliott is able to get his feet beneath him to keep himself upright. With his hands clasping Elliott from behind, Ulanbekov gets off several emphatic knees to the back of Elliott’s thigh. Ulanbekov hops on to the back, circling over to get one hook in. As Elliott tries to escape, he leans over and Ulanbekov crawls on to his back to take it and secure a body triangle. From there, the Russian attacks a rear-naked choke, and Elliott grimaces but grits it out. Elliott legally fights the hands, holding on to the wrist instead of the inseam of a glove, and he stops the choke but cannot stop punches connecting to the side of his head. Ulanbekov keeps his body triangle tight, landing unanswered shots, and he pounds away until the final bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Tagir Ulanbekov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ulanbekov but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Ulanbekov is a dominant wrestler but has been taken down and outstruck in the UFC. He thinks Elliott's experience and jiu-jitsu could make it closer. He would make Ulanbekov a -150 favorite, not -300.
Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ulanbekov is younger, longer, and has good grappling and submission skills. Brady points out that Tim Elliott has been submitted five times and has not beaten a high-level opponent in years. He believes Ulanbekov will win the grappling exchanges and eventually submit Elliott. Brady also mentions that Elliott's best wins are against lower-tier fighters, while Ulanbekov represents a step up.
Cody leans Elliott as a live underdog, noting Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC and has cardio and top control issues. He thinks Elliott's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability could cause problems. However, he is wary of Elliott's cardio and the 'Dagestan father's plan' narrative, so he calls it a dog-or-pass.
Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win, possibly by submission. He criticizes Tim Elliott's attitude, cardio, and recent performances. He believes Ulanbekov's relentless takedown style and Dagestani pressure will wear Elliott down. He notes that Elliott has been submitted multiple times and that Ulanbekov has a mounted guillotine threat. He predicts Ulanbekov will submit Elliott or win a dominant decision.
Ulanbekov has good grappling and scrambling, but his fights are often close. Elliott is a tricky veteran who could pull off an upset if he's in shape. Ulanbekov should win most of the grappling exchanges and get top position, but Elliott's hip tosses and awkward style could cause problems. The over 2.5 rounds is a better play than betting Ulanbekov straight.
Paul picks Ulanbekov but expects a dicey fight. He notes Ulanbekov's wrestling is good but his top control is not dominant, and Elliott is tough to hold down. Paul thinks Ulanbekov's takedowns and pace could win rounds, but Elliott's scrambling and volume make it close. He calls it a stay-away but leans Ulanbekov.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott as a big underdog over Tagir Ulanbekov, expressing surprise at the odds. He criticizes Ulanbekov's performances, calling him the 'runt of the litter' from Dagestan, and notes he struggled against short-notice opponent Alan Nascimento. He believes Elliott's pace, grappling, and chin will overwhelm Ulanbekov, predicting a close 29-28 split decision where Elliott out-hustles him. He mentions Elliott's experience and Ulanbekov's red flags like razor-close fights and gifted decisions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 70 of 215 | 32% | 105 of 255 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 128 of 176 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 24 of 62 | 38% | 26 of 64 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 29 of 101 | 28% | 31 of 105 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 48 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 74 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 70 of 215 | 32% | 39 of 160 | 11 of 28 | 20 of 27 | 62 of 207 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 64 of 109 | 58% | 28 of 63 | 31 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 64 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 24 of 62 | 38% | 10 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 19 of 29 | 65% | 9 of 16 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 29 of 101 | 28% | 19 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 26 of 98 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 31 of 56 | 55% | 12 of 31 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 17 of 52 | 32% | 10 of 36 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Flyweights with energy for days come up in what the UFC calls the “featured fight of the night,” as former title challenger Elliott (17-11-1, 6-9 UFC) tries to make it three in a row against Brazil’s Nicolau (16-2-1, 4-1 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog has his work cut out for him in what should be a speedy one from start to finish, and the gloves are touched before they are traded furiously. Nicolau is the first to engage with a heavy leg kick, and Elliott runs after him while lifting his leg in the air to avoid another such kick. He sprints forward, throws a right hand, and backs off to start up his herky-jerky style. Elliott points at his opponent, shouts, and then pump-fakes before landing a left hand. He follows Nicolau around the cage, and they clash heads. Elliott swarm him with a few punches, and when Nicolau falls down to the ground, Elliott fires off a soccer kick that just misses being illegal, and instead connects to the body. Elliott allows his man to stand, and points at him again for landing a successful strike. Nicolau sticks Elliott with a punch and moves away when Elliott comes at him with a standing back fist and a few more unorthodox strikes. Nicolau just comes up short with a spinning kick, and he gets kicked with a push kick to the knee. Elliott hops at him with one leg air in the air, and Nicolau appears a little confused by the antics of his opponent. Elliott, hands down, throws up a head kick and avoids the counter. Elliott charges ahead with a right hand and a diving takedown, and when he in unsuccessful in his first attempt, he manages to ground Nicolau on his second try. The Brazilian pops back up and takes several knees to the gluteus maximus, until Elliott spins around and pursues a takedown. The fighter that some call “Awkward” presses Nicolau into the wire when he cannot trip him down, and the pace slows down significantly as they jockey for position. Nicolau pushes off to break free, and Elliott stands in front of him with his hands at his waist and chin left out in the open. Nicolau pops him with a strike, and he glances with a left hand. The distance is too great for Nicolau to close in on him, but he does score a pair of hooks before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The flyweights are ready to scrap to start off the second round, and Elliott ducks a few looping punches so that he can go after a takedown. He does not ground Nicolau, but he takes his back and pushes him against the wall. Elliott gets blasted with a right hand, and it shakes him up as he falls towards the cage. His antics and lack of defense could be an extreme liability should Nicolau continue to find his chin, and Nicolau is starting to pick up on his oddball movements. Nicolau marks Elliott up with punches, and he shucks Elliott off of him when the American tries to engage. They clash heads, but no serious damage comes from it. Elliott swings heavily for punches, and he points around to various places on the floor as Nicolau ignores it. The Brazilian tags Elliott with a few punches, and he decides to aim to the body when Elliott moves his head out of the way. Elliott rushes in for a takedown try, clinching Nicolau up and pushing him into the fence. Like earlier in the round, Nicolau stops it and pushes off, where he can work the body again. Elliott’s midsection has turned into a heavy bag as his defense is firmly out the window, as Nicolau tees off on him without taking anything else coming back at him. The takedown entries are unsuccessful as Nicolau ducks out of the way and showboats a little in response. Elliott grins at him, gets punched in the face, and continues to wobble and hop around strangely. When Nicolau drills Elliott in the chin with a right hand, Elliott smiles and nods, but his subsequent takedown try comes up short. Elliott takes a few more body shots, and his elbow drops to defend these strikes. The American marches forward relentlessly, only to take punches and a head kick. When Elliott lands one, Nicolau strings three together and stuffs a takedown attempt as they drop to their knees. Nicolau stays away until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Nicolau comes out firing with a blitzing combination. Nicolau blocks a high kick and watches as Elliott awkwardly hops towards him with his leg in the air. Elliott stings his opponent with a left hand, and Nicolau gives him one back and then another for good measure. Elliott crowds Nicolau and cracks him with a left hand, and he backs off just in time to avoid a home run punch. An effective front kick touches the chin of Nicolau, who avoids three more that come at him one after the other. Elliott punches his way towards a takedown of some sort, and Nicolau works the body only to get pressed into the wire. Elliott begins to knee the thigh while Nicolau is intent on breaking apart, and after a few right hands. The hopping around of Elliott leads to his liver getting pounded by the Brazilian, and when his leg is in the air, Nicolau blasts through to hit a double leg takedown of his own. Elliott closes with a high guard, and Nicolau lifts him up and slams him down to break the grip. A few punches from Nicolau land behind the head, and he adjusts his angle as Elliott turns his head. Nicolau continues to lift Elliott up and slam him on the mat again and again until the tight grip that the American holds is released. Nicolau lands some ground-and-pound until Elliott closes his guard again, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Elliott holds on for dear life, until he doesn’t, and Nicolau lands some shots. The Brazilian punches his way out, but Elliott kicks off and gets back to his feet. Elliott tries to get his foe to throw down with seconds to go before the final bell, but Nicolau largely defends himself and backs away to cruise to what he thinks is a decision win.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.
Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.
Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.
Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.
The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.
Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau to win by close 29-28 decision. He trusts Nicolau's grappling and believes Elliott's only path is takedowns, but Nicolau's grappling is good enough to defend. He notes Nicolau's strong regional record and power at flyweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 91 of 120 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 13:19 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 23 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 24 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 44 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 25 of 44 | 56% | 14 of 27 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 17 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 18 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 13 of 25 | 52% | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 6 of 14 | 42% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 7 of 13 | 53% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 7 of 10 | 70% | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 12 of 20 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 12 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two exciting flyweights cap off the early preliminary card, prefaced by a battle for the ages between outstanding walkout music choices, when former title challenger Elliott (16-11-1, 5-9 UFC) takes on Espinosa (15-8, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC). Trying to keep up with what should be a fast-paced affair is referee Mark Smith, who bears witness to no glove touch before the madness begins. Elliott blocks a head kick that zooms at him, and he dodges a second one as well. Elliott charges in and gets shoved over, but he recovers himself to press in for a takedown. Espinosa stands him up and gets pressed into the fence, and Elliott embraces the grind as he threatens with trips but cannot set anything up. They separate, and Elliott chops at the calf and kicks the chest, but he blocks a head kick that comes right back. Espinosa scores a big left hand that prompts a takedown attempt from the former title challenger. Elliott cannot secure one, and gets off a shoulder strike and a knee to the thigh, but Espinosa pushes away and separates. Espinosa swings and misses with a big right hand, and when he fires off a head kick, Elliott barely dodges it and bullrushes Espinosa to the ground. Elliott gets a hook in for back control as Espinosa on one knee in a tough position trapped against the fence. Elliott sneaks his way to take full back control, and the only thing stopping him is the cage behind Espinosa. Elliott softens his foe up with several punches to aim for a choke attempt, and Elliott flirts with the choke while pounding on “The Gamer.” Espinosa rolls to his back and Elliott sucks his opponent’s legs out, so Espinosa latches on to a kimura to pursue a sweep. Elliott keeps Espinosa trapped on his back and ties up his own hammerlock, but Espinosa breaks the grip to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
Elliott crashes forward to begin the round, throwing a left hand before diving down into a takedown attempt. Espinosa thwarts it, backs off, throws a head kick, and gets shoved to his back. Espinosa scrambles wildly and kicks off, pulling himself back to his feet using the fence. Espinosa tries to get off a one-two, and Elliott easily drags him back to the ground. Using a half guard, Espinosa keeps a tight leg scissor on Elliott’s leg to keep him there. The former challenger breaks through to sit up and start hacking down with elbows. Espinosa scrambles but gets put flat on his back, and Elliott grinds out his adversary while landing sporadic strikes. A frustrated Espinosa scoots to the fence and to one knee, but Elliott is on him and has one hook in to take the back. Elliott uses his forearm to squeeze Espinosa’s face, and Espinosa leans over and falls into a rear-naked choke attempt. Elliott cannot get his hands locked, as Espinosa breaks the grip, but Espinosa is trapped in defense-only mode. Elliott smothers his foe and starts dropping down punches, and Espinosa rolls to his knees as he continues to take punches to the side of the head. Espinosa tries to use two-on-one wrist control to sweep Elliott, but Elliott easily pulls his arm free and hops on top to elbow Espinosa in the face repeatedly. Elliott starts talking trash from his dominant position, threatening and using big words that get by the censors to intimidate him, possibly using the words "woman beater" as he shouts at Espinosa. The round ends with Elliott grinding his forearm on Espinosa’s neck.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Round 3
Smith warns Elliott on his language between rounds, and Elliott is amped up and ready to go wild. When the round begins, Elliott advances recklessly and nearly winds up taking a flying knee on the chin. Elliott defends against it and hits a takedown with ease, where he takes a half guard position as Espinosa is already stuck flat on his back. Espinosa rolls to his side and gets punched in the side repeatedly, so Elliott returns to mount and throws strikes from on top. Espinosa tries to give him a few back, leading Elliott to elbow him several times. Espinosa defends off his back with a few elbows, and he slashes the top of Elliott’s head open and starts an immediate flow of blood. Elliott bleeds directly and intentionally into Espinosa’s eyes, blinding his foe and grinding his head into Espinosa’s. Espinosa pulls for an armbar and Elliott stands up to free himself, and he may be slippery because of the massive blood flow. Elliott climbs back on top, where he sits in side control and sets up an arm-triangle choke. The former title challenger continues to rack up control time as Espinosa is practically completely defenseless, as Elliott aims for another arm-triangle choke. Espinosa links his toes in the cage to push off, and Smith stops him from doing this. Elliott smashes his man repeatedly with elbows and punches at the 10-second clapper, trying to finish the fight in a fury. Elliott even attempts an axe kick to the body – stomps to the body are banned in some jurisdictions – as the two go wild in the final seconds. The fight ends with no reconciliation between the two, and we have gone the distance for the first time this evening.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Jordan Espinosa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
Big Brady picks Tim Elliott, relying on Elliott's wrestling advantage (4 takedowns per 15 minutes) and Espinosa's questionable 90% takedown defense against weak competition. He notes Espinosa has been submitted 4 times and has underwhelming UFC wins. He predicts a submission win for Elliott but admits he doesn't love the pick.
Daniel picks Jordan Espinosa to win a decision, citing his speed and athleticism. He notes that if Espinosa stays focused for 15 minutes, he should win, but acknowledges that a finish would favor Tim Elliott.
Elliott's awkward movement and unorthodox style could trouble Espinosa, who struggles against grapplers. The host likes Elliott's submission threat and predicts a second-round submission, but is not confident enough to bet himself.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott over Jordan Espinosa. He notes Elliott has fought better competition and shown more grit, while Espinosa tends to fade. He believes Elliott will pressure, clinch, and win by 29-28 unanimous decision.
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Tim Elliott to win by decision. He thinks Elliott can take Royval down at will and control him, but he notes that Elliott often puts himself in bad positions and has been submitted before. He acknowledges Royval's BJJ is no joke and that Royval could snatch a submission from his back. He calls it a close fight and advises not to bet on it due to the danger of Elliott getting submitted.
Daniel leans with the underdog Royval, citing his hunger, creativity, and submission threat off his back. He notes that Elliott is experienced but has a poor UFC record and may not care enough. He thinks Royval's momentum and will to win could be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval to win by submission. He notes that Royval is a bigger flyweight with long range, and that Tim Elliott has taken a lot of damage recently and walks into punches. He predicts Royval will rock Elliott and then submit him, as Elliott's grappling won't be enough to keep him down.
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