Casey Kenney vs Louis Smolka

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Song Yadong	0	116 of 257	45%	121 of 263	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:20
Casey Kenney	0	78 of 190	41%	85 of 199	1 of 5	20%	0	0	0:26

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Song Yadong	0	31 of 68	45%	31 of 68	0 of 0	---	0	0:14
Casey Kenney	0	19 of 57	33%	19 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0:09
2	Song Yadong	0	34 of 78	43%	38 of 82	0 of 0	---	0	0:06
Casey Kenney	0	28 of 60	46%	32 of 65	0 of 1	0%	0	0:12
3	Song Yadong	0	51 of 111	45%	52 of 113	0 of 3	0%	0	0:00
Casey Kenney	0	31 of 73	42%	34 of 77	1 of 4	25%	0	0:05

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Song Yadong	116 of 257	45%	66 of 197	34 of 44	16 of 16	110 of 249	6 of 8	0 of 0
Casey Kenney	78 of 190	41%	45 of 140	20 of 31	13 of 19	77 of 188	1 of 2	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Song Yadong	31 of 68	45%	18 of 54	5 of 6	8 of 8	28 of 65	3 of 3	0 of 0
Casey Kenney	19 of 57	33%	8 of 40	9 of 13	2 of 4	18 of 55	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Song Yadong	34 of 78	43%	19 of 60	9 of 12	6 of 6	34 of 78	0 of 0	0 of 0
Casey Kenney	28 of 60	46%	17 of 45	4 of 7	7 of 8	28 of 60	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Song Yadong	51 of 111	45%	29 of 83	20 of 26	2 of 2	48 of 106	3 of 5	0 of 0
Casey Kenney	31 of 73	42%	20 of 55	7 of 11	4 of 7	31 of 73	0 of 0	0 of 0

Casey Kenney vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
To kick off the main card, bantamweights throw down when Tachi Palace Fights staple Kenney (16-3-1, 5-2 UFC) meets China’s Song (16-5-1, 1 NC; 5-1-1 UFC). Even though Kenney (30) comes in seven years older than his opponent, he actually started his pro career a year after Song (23) did. Referee Dan Miragliotta was not aware of that age discrepancy, but he pays it no mind when the two touch gloves and prepare to fight. Song advances, and Kenney is there to kick him in the body. Song gives him one right back, and Kenney measures him with a few front kicks as “USA” chants already rain down to support Kenney. Song thumps Kenney with a couple solid right hands, and Kenney retreats and gathers himself. Kenney lands with a right hand behind the ear that makes Song stumble, but the Chinese fighter shakes it off and is ready to fire back. Kenney walks forward and slings a left hand, and Song replies in kind. Both men land heavy body kicks, and Kenney marches on to keep attacking. The American ducks back in time to avoid a quick combination, and he gets kicked in the leg. Kenney sticks his tongue out at him and comes out firing, and the two men exchange and connect on one another. A right hand counter from Kenney surprises Song, who measures another stiff leg kick as Kenney plods forward. Both men are marked up to the body after landing shots, and Kenney walks into another kick to the body. Song gets off a right hand that marks up the nose, and Kenney tries to pounce and even goes for a spinning wheel kick, but Song sees it coming and dances out of the way. Kenney goes up high with a kick, and Song dodges and weaves before slamming his shin into Kenney’s leg. A head kick from Song is blocked, and he bullies Song to the ground. The “Kung Fu Monkey” gets to his knees and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, but he stays patient and pops his head out. Song manages to wriggle himself back up to his feet, and Kenney chases him down and keeps throwing hands. Both men trade punches, with Song headhunting while Kenney goes to the body, and the two clap hands as the first round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kenney

Round 2
Kenney runs out of his corner and touches gloves, and he is quick to throw his foot up at Song’s face. Kenney takes a kick to the body as he advances, and he winds up on a huge right hand that Song narrowly dodges. Kenney chops at his foe’s leg, and Song loads up on a few punches to the body. Kenney counters, and the two separate, trading successive blows one after the other. Song kicks the body, Kenney kicks the leg, and Kenney walks through it to land a looping left hand. A fighter is warned for outstretched fingers, and Kenney goes right back to targeting the head and body of his opponent. Song is forced to fight off his back foot, and as he retreats, Kenney lands a few strikes high and low. Kenney fakes an ankle pick and absorbs a few shots to the body, and the American lands a leg kick followed by a right hand. Song has a trio of punches blocked, and when he comes in, Kenney eats one on the chin and fires right back. A loud, slapping kick from Song echoes through the arena, but Kenney pays it no mind as he careens off his leg. Song floats up a few body kicks as Kenney pushes the pace on him, and like a bantamweight Terminator, Kenney shows no reaction any time he is struck and keeps moving forward. Kenney looks to the take the fight down, and Song blocks it but eats a left hand over the top. When Kenney advances, Song is able to time strikes to his body and legs, but he lands with his hands as Song tries to skirt out of the way. Kenney comes up short on an uppercut as he walks his opponent down, while Song picks at him with kicks. Kenney returns fire after kicks land with low kicks, and he stings Song with a solid right hand. Song bites down on his mouthpiece and lets Kenney have it, scoring a left hand and one to the body. Kenney grits through it and tags his foe right back with a left, forcing Song to shoot in and try for a takedown. The American turns him around, where he clings to him against the fence until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
Scorecards will likely be understandably close going into this last round, with the volume of Song against the power and forward movement of Kenney. Din Thomas giggles as he says the Chinese fighter’s name, and the fight resumes practically where the last round ended, with quick exchanges from both fighters. Kenney ignores kicks to score a right hand that shakes Song up, and he scores a body kick to prompt Song to throw back at him. Song lands a few punches and a kick as Kenney advances, and he sits down on a right hand and it splits the guard. Kenney backs off as Song picks up volume, landing jabs and kicks as Kenney tries to give him one back every time. Song scores a right hand on the chin, and Kenney times a sharp body kick as Song ducks down. Kenney clips Song with a head kick where the knee may have bounced off Song’s head, and Song smiles keeps going strong. A one-two and a body kick from Song surprise his opponent, who whiffs as Song chains another punch combination to the body. Kenney lands a few punches at range, with a left hand that sends Song back a step. Song comes right back, and he scores a few strikes before he is forced to defend a takedown in the center of the cage. The Chinese fighter stands him up and holds his hands out to tell him to brawl with him, and Kenney steps in with a left hand as Song jabs at him. Kenney kicks and falls over while trying to recover from it, and Song is there before him scoring to the body. Kenney again shoots for a takedown, and Song sprawls and lands flush. Kenney is forced to shell up as Song strides forward, landing big punches as Kenney tries to wind up on bombs. Song meets every Kenney punch with two of his own, connecting to the body and head as Kenney wings shots. When Song puts together a combination, Kenney shoots in for a takedown and finally hits it – but he last less than 10 seconds to spare. In top position, Kenney drops down a few elbows, and time expires to conclude this close matchup. The scorecards could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Song)

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Casey Kenney via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)

Casey Kenney

Angelo picks Kenney, citing his forward pressure, volume, leg kicks, and grappling. He believes Kenney will back Yadong up and mix in takedowns, similar to how Yadong lost to Kyler Phillips. He notes Yadong has better technical striking but struggles when backing up. He also mentions he has a moneyline bet on Kenney.

Moneyline bet on Casey Kenney; also mentions Yadong over 2.5 rounds as a prop

"Casey Kenney wins that fight... because of volume and grappling... he comes forward, lots and lots of volume, mixes in leg kicks, and grapples."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Kenney's volume and Yadong's power. He thinks Kenney's ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference, as Yadong has 56% takedown defense. He predicts a close decision win for Kenney, but acknowledges the judges could go either way.

"I will take Casey Kenny though to mix it up and win a decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Cody picks Kenney, citing his superior volume and cardio. He notes that Song Yadong tends to fade in later rounds, while Kenney is a slow starter who pushes the pace. Cody expects Kenney to lose the first round but win the next two, making him a good live betting option.

Kenney by decision +150

"i think that your best bet is to take kini after the first round i think he's probably going to drop this first round to seong dong"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, believing he has more ways to win including a potential knockout early or late. He notes that Casey Kenney tends to fade in later rounds and has been taken down multiple times, while Song has power and improving cardio. He acknowledges the fight is close but leans Song because of his finishing ability and the fact that Kenney is undersized for bantamweight.

"I'm gonna pick him to win this fight man"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Kenney has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He is one of the best scramblers in the UFC and should mix striking with takedowns. Yadong is a power puncher but has shown limited progression and will struggle with Kenney's footwork and level changes. Kenney should grind out a decision, possibly winning the later rounds decisively.

Kenney by decision

"I like kenny in the spot and uh yeah I'm probably going to take a shot on him here I like the odds."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a volume play. He thinks Kenney's pressure and output will be key, and that losing round one is possible if Kenney doesn't secure an early takedown. He doesn't add much new analysis.

"i think it's just like a volume play but uh yeah losing round one could is very much in the cards"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney over Song Yadong. He praises Kenney's cardio, output, and grappling advantage (black belt in judo). He believes Kenney's pace and body work will be too much for Yadong, and predicts a unanimous decision win. He notes Yadong's win over Marlon Vera was controversial.

"i'm gonna go with casey kenny by unanimous decision over song yudong"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Dominick Cruz

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Dominick Cruz	0	89 of 202	44%	115 of 229	2 of 9	22%	0	0	2:07
Casey Kenney	0	74 of 193	38%	74 of 193	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Dominick Cruz	26 of 56	46%	26 of 56	0 of 2	0%	0:00
1	Casey Kenney	23 of 63	36%	23 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:17
2	Dominick Cruz	36 of 82	43%	36 of 82	0 of 3	0%	0:00
2	Casey Kenney	33 of 73	45%	33 of 73	0 of 0	---	0:09
3	Dominick Cruz	27 of 64	42%	53 of 91	2 of 4	50%	2:07
3	Casey Kenney	18 of 57	31%	18 of 57	0 of 2	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Dominick Cruz	89 of 202	44%	51 of 151	24 of 35	14 of 16	85 of 197	4 of 4	0 of 1
Casey Kenney	74 of 193	38%	41 of 148	10 of 19	23 of 26	72 of 191	2 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Dominick Cruz	26 of 56	46%	10 of 29	7 of 16	9 of 11	26 of 56	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Casey Kenney	23 of 63	36%	9 of 46	6 of 7	8 of 10	22 of 62	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Dominick Cruz	36 of 82	43%	24 of 70	8 of 8	4 of 4	36 of 82	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Casey Kenney	33 of 73	45%	21 of 55	1 of 6	11 of 12	33 of 73	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Dominick Cruz	27 of 64	42%	17 of 52	9 of 11	1 of 1	23 of 59	4 of 4	0 of 1
3	Casey Kenney	18 of 57	31%	11 of 47	3 of 6	4 of 4	17 of 56	1 of 1	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing Cruz's wrestling advantage and Kenney's 56% takedown defense. He notes Cruz has not won since 2016 but faced elite competition, while Kenney has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but admits he doesn't feel great about it.

"i'm gonna side with the dog of dominick cruz here"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Casey Kenney

Daniel leans with Casey Kenney, citing Kenney's leg kicks from southpaw to slow Cruz's movement and his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Cruz's in-fight adjustments but believes Kenney's youth and style will edge a decision.

"i'm slightly leaning with casey kenny though man my gut just tells me that he... stylistically speaking his wrestling is good enough to keep it standing and he's got the kicks to slow down that movement of dominic cruz"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Dominick Cruz

Cruz's footwork and experience could trouble Kenney, who may struggle to land his body kicks. The host notes Cruz's durability and wrestling background, but is not confident enough to bet. He predicts Cruz wins by decision.

"i got dominique cruzier to win this fight for your decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)

Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog. He argues Cruz had a full camp and hand-picked Kenney, and that people judge him unfairly based on the short-notice Cejudo fight. He believes Cruz's footwork, size, and experience will lead to a 30-27 unanimous decision, and that Cruz can even get takedowns.

"i'm going with dominick cruz man i am over casey kenny this is another underdog that i'm picking on the card"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Nathaniel Wood

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey Kenney	0	136 of 321	42%	138 of 325	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:00
Nathaniel Wood	0	123 of 247	49%	125 of 249	2 of 6	33%	0	0	1:30

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Casey Kenney	51 of 120	42%	51 of 120	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Nathaniel Wood	54 of 96	56%	54 of 96	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Casey Kenney	48 of 113	42%	48 of 113	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Nathaniel Wood	40 of 90	44%	40 of 90	0 of 2	0%	0:02
3	Casey Kenney	37 of 88	42%	39 of 92	0 of 3	0%	0:00
3	Nathaniel Wood	29 of 61	47%	31 of 63	2 of 4	50%	1:28

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey Kenney	136 of 321	42%	70 of 237	9 of 22	57 of 62	134 of 318	2 of 3	0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood	123 of 247	49%	74 of 189	25 of 32	24 of 26	118 of 241	4 of 5	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey Kenney	51 of 120	42%	22 of 83	6 of 12	23 of 25	51 of 120	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Nathaniel Wood	54 of 96	56%	29 of 68	13 of 15	12 of 13	53 of 95	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Casey Kenney	48 of 113	42%	26 of 86	0 of 4	22 of 23	48 of 113	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Nathaniel Wood	40 of 90	44%	26 of 71	5 of 9	9 of 10	39 of 89	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Casey Kenney	37 of 88	42%	22 of 68	3 of 6	12 of 14	35 of 85	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Nathaniel Wood	29 of 61	47%	19 of 50	7 of 8	3 of 3	26 of 57	2 of 3	1 of 1

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Big Brady leans towards Casey Kenney, acknowledging the fight is close and the line (-200) may be too wide. He highlights Kenney's wrestling advantage and ability to get the fight to the mat, where he has a good submission game. However, he notes Wood's high striking volume and Kenney's recent quick turnaround, making him hesitant.

decision

"i'm going to lean kenny here and i'm going to pick kenny"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Casey Kenney

Daniel Levi picks Casey Kenney, citing his harder hitting, wrestling background, and durability. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood's point-fighting style and grappling but questions Wood's chin, noting all four of his losses are stoppages. Levi thinks Kenney will land harder shots and secure takedowns at the end of rounds to slightly outpoint Wood.

Dog or pass at the betting window; understands people taking a shot on Wood at +150

"i'm gonna lean with casey kenny i think he lands the harder shots i think he might secure a takedown or two at the end of rounds"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

The host picks Casey Kenney, emphasizing his superior wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ. He believes Kenney will implement a grappling-heavy game plan to neutralize Wood's striking. He notes that Wood has defensive flaws and has been finished before.

Kenney by decision

"i truly think that we're going to see a casey kenny decision here"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)

Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood to win by first-round TKO as an underdog. He argues that Wood is more technical than Kenney's previous opponent, has KO power, and dominated Andre Ewell. He believes Kenney is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite and will be overaggressive, leaving himself open.

first round TKO

"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting the upset on casey kenny"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Alateng Heili

Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey Kenney	0	109 of 263	41%	109 of 263	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Alateng Heili	0	46 of 171	26%	46 of 171	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Casey Kenney	40 of 94	42%	40 of 94	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Alateng Heili	19 of 64	29%	19 of 64	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Casey Kenney	29 of 79	36%	29 of 79	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Alateng Heili	14 of 52	26%	14 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Casey Kenney	40 of 90	44%	40 of 90	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Alateng Heili	13 of 55	23%	13 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey Kenney	109 of 263	41%	57 of 192	41 of 58	11 of 13	109 of 261	0 of 2	0 of 0
Alateng Heili	46 of 171	26%	26 of 140	11 of 20	9 of 11	46 of 171	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey Kenney	40 of 94	42%	21 of 69	15 of 19	4 of 6	40 of 94	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Alateng Heili	19 of 64	29%	9 of 53	5 of 6	5 of 5	19 of 64	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Casey Kenney	29 of 79	36%	11 of 58	15 of 18	3 of 3	29 of 79	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Alateng Heili	14 of 52	26%	9 of 43	2 of 4	3 of 5	14 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Casey Kenney	40 of 90	44%	25 of 65	11 of 21	4 of 4	40 of 88	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Alateng Heili	13 of 55	23%	8 of 44	4 of 10	1 of 1	13 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by decision. He highlights Kenney's superior striking volume and takedown defense, noting that Heili is low volume and gets outlanded. He thinks Kenney is better everywhere and that Heili's only chance is a knockout.

"give me casey kenny to win i'm gonna take it safe and say by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Daniel confidently picks Kenney, praising his fight IQ and level of competition. He expects Kenney to use kicks to avoid Heili's right hand, mix in takedowns, and dominate on top. He notes Heili's toughness and power but believes Kenney is on a different level and will out-tough him.

"i think casey is going to come out here throwing more kicks then he's going to mix in the takedowns and when he gets on top of hailey ala tank that's when i feel like he's going to really take …"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

The host is extremely confident in Casey Kenney, citing his superior grappling, scrambles, and experience against high-level grapplers like Manny Bermudez and Brandon Royval. He believes Alateng Heili's wrestling credentials won't translate to MMA grappling and that Kenney will dominate on the ground. He placed a 5-unit bet at -281, calling it his lock of the night.

Parlay suggestion with Jordan Williams or Dusko Todorovic

"I've already pulled the trigger on casey kenny here... he is my locker than i play there's no doubt about it"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

The Guru picks Casey Kenney, citing his quality wins over Manny Bermudez, Ray Borg, and Louis Smolka, and noting that Alateng's close fight with Ryan Benoit was unimpressive. He acknowledges Kenney is a heavy favorite at 1-3 odds but still picks him, predicting a submission in the first or second round.

Odds: 1-3 (implied -300); prediction: submission round 1-2

"i'm definitely going to be picking casey kenny and to be honest he went to a decision with mourab yeah he got ragdolled but you know he was getting back up"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Louis Smolka

Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:03 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey Kenney	0	18 of 43	41%	18 of 43	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Louis Smolka	0	32 of 52	61%	32 of 52	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Casey Kenney	0	18 of 43	41%	18 of 43	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
1	Louis Smolka	0	32 of 52	61%	32 of 52	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey Kenney	18 of 43	41%	4 of 16	14 of 27	0 of 0	16 of 41	2 of 2	0 of 0
Louis Smolka	32 of 52	61%	15 of 34	5 of 6	12 of 12	31 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey Kenney	18 of 43	41%	4 of 16	14 of 27	0 of 0	16 of 41	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Louis Smolka	32 of 52	61%	15 of 34	5 of 6	12 of 12	31 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by dominant decision. He believes Kenney is better everywhere and can take Smolka down at will. He thinks Kenney's BJJ is too good for Smolka to submit him, and that Kenney will control the fight on the ground or on the feet. He expects a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.

"I like Kenny a lot in this fight I think he is better pretty much everywhere"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Casey Kenney

Daniel slightly leans with Kenney but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation at -270. He respects Kenney's well-rounded game and toughness, but notes that Smolka is durable and can scramble. He expects a close fight and advises against betting the favorite at those odds.

dog or pass situation

"i do lean with casey kenny the issue is that when the line's three to one that that that's when you start to get worried"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney to win by unanimous decision. He admits he wasn't impressed by Kenney's last performance but believes he is a very good fighter. He thinks Kenney will be the smaller man but will outwork Louis Smolka, who has had a long career. He predicts a decision win.

Kenney by decision

"Casey Kenny is a very good fighter I think he's gonna beat Luis smoker he's gonna be the smaller man in there however Luis smoke has had a long career now I feel like it's time for Casey Kenny to …"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Merab Dvalishvili

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–25, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili	0	45 of 118	38%	47 of 120	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
Casey Kenney	0	63 of 181	34%	114 of 241	12 of 24	50%	0	0	5:42

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Merab Dvalishvili	22 of 52	42%	24 of 54	0 of 0	---	0:02
1	Casey Kenney	19 of 67	28%	43 of 92	4 of 6	66%	1:11
2	Merab Dvalishvili	16 of 45	35%	16 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Casey Kenney	24 of 65	36%	33 of 75	4 of 11	36%	1:57
3	Merab Dvalishvili	7 of 21	33%	7 of 21	0 of 0	---	0:03
3	Casey Kenney	20 of 49	40%	38 of 74	4 of 7	57%	2:34

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Merab Dvalishvili	45 of 118	38%	22 of 87	10 of 17	13 of 14	42 of 112	3 of 6	0 of 0
Casey Kenney	63 of 181	34%	30 of 137	14 of 23	19 of 21	43 of 156	7 of 8	13 of 17

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Merab Dvalishvili	22 of 52	42%	8 of 30	5 of 12	9 of 10	19 of 47	3 of 5	0 of 0
1	Casey Kenney	19 of 67	28%	7 of 46	4 of 12	8 of 9	14 of 60	3 of 4	2 of 3
2	Merab Dvalishvili	16 of 45	35%	8 of 37	4 of 4	4 of 4	16 of 44	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Casey Kenney	24 of 65	36%	9 of 48	9 of 10	6 of 7	17 of 57	3 of 3	4 of 5
3	Merab Dvalishvili	7 of 21	33%	6 of 20	1 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 21	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Casey Kenney	20 of 49	40%	14 of 43	1 of 1	5 of 5	12 of 39	1 of 1	7 of 9

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to edge out a close decision, but is not very confident. He notes Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and takedowns, but also his tendency to gas and become predictable. He acknowledges Kenney's underrated skills and ability to win fights he's not supposed to, making this a tough call.

close decision, fight of the night potential, value on Kenney at plus money

"I think my Rob's probably gonna edge out a decision but it's not a very confident pick"

Half the Battle

WIN vs Manny Bermudez

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey Kenney	0	37 of 59	62%	59 of 83	3 of 4	75%	0	1	6:10
Manny Bermudez	0	43 of 69	62%	56 of 85	2 of 2	100%	1	1	5:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Casey Kenney	11 of 14	78%	14 of 17	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:32
1	Manny Bermudez	18 of 28	64%	21 of 31	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:49
2	Casey Kenney	6 of 12	50%	7 of 13	2 of 3	66%	0	0	1:22
2	Manny Bermudez	14 of 22	63%	20 of 31	0 of 0	---	1	1	2:55
3	Casey Kenney	20 of 33	60%	38 of 53	0 of 0	---	0	1	3:16
3	Manny Bermudez	11 of 19	57%	15 of 23	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:36

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey Kenney	37 of 59	62%	29 of 47	8 of 12	0 of 0	22 of 43	2 of 2	13 of 14
Manny Bermudez	43 of 69	62%	21 of 42	10 of 14	12 of 13	26 of 49	6 of 7	11 of 13

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey Kenney	11 of 14	78%	8 of 11	3 of 3	0 of 0	7 of 10	1 of 1	3 of 3
1	Manny Bermudez	18 of 28	64%	9 of 17	3 of 4	6 of 7	14 of 24	3 of 3	1 of 1
2	Casey Kenney	6 of 12	50%	5 of 8	1 of 4	0 of 0	6 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Manny Bermudez	14 of 22	63%	7 of 14	5 of 6	2 of 2	3 of 9	1 of 1	10 of 12
3	Casey Kenney	20 of 33	60%	16 of 28	4 of 5	0 of 0	9 of 21	1 of 1	10 of 11
3	Manny Bermudez	11 of 19	57%	5 of 11	2 of 4	4 of 4	9 of 16	2 of 3	0 of 0

WIN vs Ray Borg

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Mar 30, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey Kenney	0	17 of 35	48%	22 of 40	7 of 10	70%	0	1	6:30
Ray Borg	0	32 of 52	61%	46 of 68	2 of 3	66%	0	3	6:23

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Casey Kenney	2 of 4	50%	4 of 6	1 of 1	100%	1	1:36
1	Ray Borg	10 of 15	66%	15 of 22	2 of 2	100%	0	2:38
2	Casey Kenney	7 of 10	70%	8 of 11	3 of 5	60%	0	2:36
2	Ray Borg	13 of 16	81%	17 of 20	0 of 1	0%	2	1:54
3	Casey Kenney	8 of 21	38%	10 of 23	3 of 4	75%	0	2:18
3	Ray Borg	9 of 21	42%	14 of 26	0 of 0	---	1	1:51

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey Kenney	17 of 35	48%	8 of 23	8 of 11	1 of 1	2 of 14	13 of 19	2 of 2
Ray Borg	32 of 52	61%	9 of 27	19 of 20	4 of 5	9 of 23	19 of 25	4 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey Kenney	2 of 4	50%	0 of 1	2 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 2	1 of 1	1 of 1
1	Ray Borg	10 of 15	66%	3 of 6	5 of 6	2 of 3	3 of 8	4 of 4	3 of 3
2	Casey Kenney	7 of 10	70%	3 of 5	4 of 5	0 of 0	1 of 3	5 of 6	1 of 1
2	Ray Borg	13 of 16	81%	3 of 6	10 of 10	0 of 0	1 of 3	11 of 12	1 of 1
3	Casey Kenney	8 of 21	38%	5 of 17	2 of 3	1 of 1	1 of 9	7 of 12	0 of 0
3	Ray Borg	9 of 21	42%	3 of 15	4 of 4	2 of 2	5 of 12	4 of 9	0 of 0

Louis Smolka - Fight History

LOSS vs Davey Grant

KO (punches) R3 0:49 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Davey Grant	1	81 of 197	41%	84 of 200	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:35
Louis Smolka	0	71 of 139	51%	75 of 145	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:35

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Davey Grant	1	45 of 90	50%	46 of 91	0 of 0	---	0:22
1	Louis Smolka	0	14 of 37	37%	14 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0:02
2	Davey Grant	0	27 of 87	31%	29 of 89	0 of 1	0%	0:06
2	Louis Smolka	0	56 of 93	60%	60 of 99	0 of 1	0%	0:33
3	Davey Grant	0	9 of 20	45%	9 of 20	0 of 0	---	0:07
3	Louis Smolka	0	1 of 9	11%	1 of 9	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Davey Grant	81 of 197	41%	36 of 134	29 of 42	16 of 21	68 of 180	6 of 8	7 of 9
Louis Smolka	71 of 139	51%	46 of 101	19 of 31	6 of 7	67 of 133	1 of 1	3 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Davey Grant	45 of 90	50%	17 of 54	18 of 24	10 of 12	39 of 84	2 of 2	4 of 4
1	Louis Smolka	14 of 37	37%	8 of 24	3 of 10	3 of 3	13 of 36	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Davey Grant	27 of 87	31%	14 of 66	10 of 17	3 of 4	23 of 81	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Louis Smolka	56 of 93	60%	37 of 70	16 of 20	3 of 3	53 of 88	0 of 0	3 of 5
3	Davey Grant	9 of 20	45%	5 of 14	1 of 1	3 of 5	6 of 15	0 of 0	3 of 5
3	Louis Smolka	1 of 9	11%	1 of 7	0 of 1	0 of 1	1 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Davey Grant vs. Louis Smolka
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Grant (-290) Smolka (+230)

Round 1
In a fight clearly booked for its potential entertainment value, “Dangerous Davey” and “Da Last Samurai” square off, with veteran ref Mike Beltran set to supervise the expected violence. Grant comes out in southpaw and is met by the orthodox Smolka. Grant throws a kick to the Hawaiian’s lead leg. Smolka comes forward, bobbing and weaving. He throws a front kick up the middle which lands. Grant launches a spinning high kick, but comes up short. Grant lands a hard pair of hooks to the body. Grant lands a hard outside kick to Smolka’s lead left leg, then just misses with a murderous punch up top. Smolka lunges in and scores with a nice jab. Two minutes left in the round. Smolka lunges in again and lands a left hand, but Grant scores with a pair of counters. Grant lands another hard leg kick, then a spinning back fist. Smolka is still marching forward, but Grant is hitting with just about everything he throws. Smolka walks right into a hard jab and falls to his rear, dazed. Grant jumps on him and after a brief scramble, lets Smolka back up. The round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Grant
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant

Round 2
Smolka charges forward, swinging big hooks. Grant gives ground and circles away, tagging the Hawaiian with punches as he goes. Grant goes to the body several times in the first minute, then follows up with combinations upstairs. Smolka keeps on coming, however, and is landing quite a few of his own shots. Grant appears to be slowing just a bit. Smolka wades in and lands a right kick to the body. Smolka mixes in level elbow strikes at close range, catching the Englishman. Smolka takes a collar tie and looks to punch with the other hand, but Grant shrugs him off and throws a pair of wide hooks. A minute left, and the momentum seems to have shifted. Smolka catches a kick, hoists Grant’s leg high and runs him to the ground. Smolka moves to the back, then out to the side, working for an armbar. Grant defends the hold, and escapes to his feet. They swing wildly as the final seconds expire.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Smolka
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smolka
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smolka

Round 3
Grant lands a hard low kick, then a pair of punches upstairs. Smolka sneaks a look at his own leg, comes forward somewhat gingerly, and
Grant lands another low kick that takes his base out from under him completely.
Smolka lunges forward for a desperate takedown attempt, but Grant sprawls all over it, then dives in with punches that land unblocked, the last of which puts “Da Last Samurai” out. Ref Beltran is there a heartbeat later, and it’s another stoppage win for Davey Grant.

The Official Result
Davey Grant def. Louis Smolka R3 0:49 via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Davey Grant

Cody is confident in Davey Grant, citing his durability, cardio, power, and improved striking. He notes Grant has been fighting more frequently and showing heart, while Smolka has durability issues, poor wrestling, and was knocked out by Vince Morales. He thinks Grant is much stronger and will march Smolka down, though the -300 price is rich.

"davey grant is that dog he is that guy that comes forward he's that guy that makes it up he's got a lot of durability his cardio checks out he's got big power punching standing he can wrestle he can …"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Davey Grant

Paul agrees with Grant, struggling to see where Smolka wins unless by submission. He notes Grant is making up for lost time, has made significant improvements, and is an Ultimate Fighter winner. He thinks Grant's style and effort make him the pick despite the high price.

"i struggle to see where where smoke really wins i guess if he takes him down and and and finds a submission but otherwise like we've seen like david graham really seems like a guy you know he's like six …"

Bookie Beatdown

LOSS vs Vince Morales

KO (punches) R1 2:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vince Morales	0	23 of 32	71%	23 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Louis Smolka	1	27 of 49	55%	27 of 50	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Vince Morales	0	23 of 32	71%	23 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Louis Smolka	1	27 of 49	55%	27 of 50	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vince Morales	23 of 32	71%	5 of 14	10 of 10	8 of 8	19 of 28	4 of 4	0 of 0
Louis Smolka	27 of 49	55%	16 of 34	8 of 12	3 of 3	18 of 38	4 of 6	5 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vince Morales	23 of 32	71%	5 of 14	10 of 10	8 of 8	19 of 28	4 of 4	0 of 0
1	Louis Smolka	27 of 49	55%	16 of 34	8 of 12	3 of 3	18 of 38	4 of 6	5 of 5

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Vince Morales vs. Louis Smolka

Round 1
The UFC is back for three more weeks to end the year, and the first of three comes on the main ESPN network. UFC on ESPN 31, which now has 13 fights after losing a pair of matches in the last 24 hours, will commence in the bantamweight division. Flyweight-turned-135er Smolka (17-7, 8-6 UFC) will try to win his second in a row at the expense of Morales (10-5, 2-3 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni draws the first charge of the night, and with a touch of gloves, we are underway! Smolka leads the dance with two jabs and a right hand, and follows it with a low calf kick to frustrate Morales right out of the gate. Smolka walks his foe down, reaching out with push kicks and avoiding a swiping left hand coming his way. Morales settles down and snaps out a few jabs to find his range, and the punches have already marked Smolka up. “Vandetta” chains together a lengthy combination ending with several body shots, doing some decent work and making Smolka shell up. Morales backs off so he can flick out his jab a few times. Smolka continues to march forward but walks straight into jabs, and he is still able to push a kick out. Morales paws out a left hook a few times to solid effect, and Smolka comes right back at him but is not landing nearly as flush. Smolka rips a left hand to the body, and he latches on to a Thai clinch to blast Morales in the body with knees.
Not remotely concerned by the strikes, Morales gathers himself, lands to the body and wings a huge right hand over the top that sends Smolka crashing face-first on the canvas.
Morales surprised himself with the strike, as he takes a second before pouncing to deliver some ground-and-pound. The blows are merely academic, as Tognoni rushes in to pull him off and stop the fight. What a way to start the night, as Morales becomes the first fighter to ever knock out the durable Smolka!

The Official Result
Vince Morales def. Louis Smolka R1 2:02 via KO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Angelo picks Louis Smolka, citing his volume, wrestling, and chin. He notes Smolka averages two takedowns per fight and works in grappling well, while Morales relies on power but may be a step behind. Angelo is confident Smolka's chin holds up and he outpaces Morales to a win.

1 unit moneyline at -150

"i'm gonna go with luis smoka here i see him avoiding the big shots working in wrestling outpacing to a win"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Big Brady picks Louis Smolka to win inside the distance, specifically by submission. He notes Smolka's 89% finish rate and 42% submission rate, and highlights Vince Morales' poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He references Morales' fight against Domingo Pilarte where he was easily submitted after being taken down. Brady believes Smolka's grappling advantage will be decisive.

by submission

"give me luis smolka inside the distance... vince morales by submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Cody picks Smolka, noting his grappling advantage and that Morales is a warm body. He thinks Smolka's striking is even with Morales and that his ground game will be the difference. Cody believes Smolka is the rightful favorite.

"i do think that louis smolka is the rightful favorite and i do think this is a spot where the favor does win"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Daniel Levi picks Louis Smolka to win, citing his scrambling ability, durability, and experience. He notes that Smolka has an insane chin and can take shots, and that he has a little sneaky power. He thinks Smolka can get on top of Morales and either ground-and-pound or submit him. He acknowledges that backing Smolka as a favorite can be sketchy but notes his decent history as a slight favorite.

"I'm gonna go with louis smoker to get it done"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Jacob agrees with Smolka, emphasizing he must end up on top in grappling exchanges. He notes Smolka's wrestling and jiu-jitsu from top position are key, and that Morales is a wrestler but only a blue belt. Jacob is not overly confident but leans Smolka.

"i agree i think i like smoking in this matchup i think the big... the most important thing for him in this fight is in the grappling exchanges in the wrestling he has to end up on top"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Louis Smolka

I like Smolka here. He is much more physical, hits harder, and throws more volume than Morales. Morales is a good technical boxer but lacks power and athleticism; he tends to collapse when backed up and is poor on bottom. Smolka will pressure non-stop and eventually break him, likely finishing via submission or TKO. I also like the inside the distance prop at plus 200.

Smolka by submission +365, Smolka inside the distance +200

"I like smoker here smoke inside the distance please let me know what you feel about this matchup brother"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Paul picks Smolka, citing his grappling and recent win over Quinones. He thinks Smolka's ground game is slick and that he can capitalize on scrambles. Paul notes that Smolka's losses are to elite competition and that he seems to have turned his life around.

"i'm gonna go smoke it here um uh hopefully you can get the fight to the mat and and style from top"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)

Louis Smolka

The MMA Guru picks Louis Smolka to win by submission in the second round. He expects a competitive stand-up fight early, with both landing shots, but Smolka's superior grappling will be the difference. He predicts Smolka will secure a takedown at the end of the first round, building confidence, then finish with a rear-naked choke midway through the second.

second round rear naked choke

"i'm gonna go the lewis smoker second round rear naked choke against vince morales"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs José Alberto Quiñónez

TKO (punches) R2 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Dec 05, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Louis Smolka	0	59 of 116	50%	64 of 128	3 of 4	75%	0	0	1:09
José Alberto Quiñónez	0	43 of 107	40%	47 of 113	2 of 3	66%	0	0	0:31

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Louis Smolka	37 of 71	52%	37 of 72	2 of 3	66%	0:30
1	José Alberto Quiñónez	32 of 80	40%	34 of 83	1 of 1	100%	0:10
2	Louis Smolka	22 of 45	48%	27 of 56	1 of 1	100%	0:39
2	José Alberto Quiñónez	11 of 27	40%	13 of 30	1 of 2	50%	0:21

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Louis Smolka	59 of 116	50%	35 of 88	18 of 22	6 of 6	34 of 78	13 of 16	12 of 22
José Alberto Quiñónez	43 of 107	40%	13 of 66	12 of 23	18 of 18	37 of 97	4 of 8	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Louis Smolka	37 of 71	52%	20 of 51	12 of 15	5 of 5	29 of 61	8 of 9	0 of 1
1	José Alberto Quiñónez	32 of 80	40%	10 of 50	7 of 15	15 of 15	28 of 73	2 of 5	2 of 2
2	Louis Smolka	22 of 45	48%	15 of 37	6 of 7	1 of 1	5 of 17	5 of 7	12 of 21
2	José Alberto Quiñónez	11 of 27	40%	3 of 16	5 of 8	3 of 3	9 of 24	2 of 3	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Big Brady picks Louis Smolka despite concerns about his weight miss and fight cancellation. He thinks Smolka is the better fighter and that Quiñónez is not that great. He notes Smolka's high volume striking and believes Quiñónez's takedowns could lead to submission danger. However, he is not betting due to Smolka's unreliability and the price tag. He predicts Smolka wins inside the distance.

Smolka inside the distance; Smolka's volume striking; weight miss concerns; not betting

"I'm going with Smolka still... I'm going to go Smolka inside the distance I'm not gonna bet it"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)

José Alberto Quiñónez

Daniel picks José Quiñónez, comparing his style to a Mexican version of Dominick Cruz with feints, kicks, and level changes. He believes Quiñónez can outwork Smolka on the feet and mix in takedowns. He notes that Smolka's only path to victory is a knockout, but Quiñónez's chin is a concern due to a past brutal knockout. However, he thinks Smolka doesn't have one-punch power, so Quiñónez should be safe. He also cites Smolka's poor lifestyle choices, including missing weight and eating competitions, as red flags.

"I'm gonna go with tekko kinonas to come out here mexican dominic cruz win a decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

The host picks Louis Smolka to win, possibly by finish in the first or second round. He likes Smolka's improved striking, especially his body work, and believes Quiñónez can be lulled into that game. However, he is not keen on betting Smolka at -140 and would prefer a pick'em line. He notes Smolka's jiu-jitsu advantage and expects him to implement his game plan.

Inside the distance prop if better than +200; Smolka by submission or KO in first or second round.

"I'm gonna go out there pick louis smoker i wouldn't even be surprised if he gets a finish too maybe second round third round"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)

José Alberto Quiñónez

The MMA Guru picks José Alberto Quiñónez because he likes his herky-jerky style on the feet and his experience fighting top competition early in his UFC career. He notes that Quiñónez has a reach advantage despite being shorter and believes Smolka hasn't performed at a high level recently. He also jokingly suggests the UFC may have rigged the fight since they list Quiñónez's record as 9-4 instead of 8-4.

"i like this one i think alberto quinones can present a weird style on the feet and be herky jerky in and out"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Casey Kenney

Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:03 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey Kenney	0	18 of 43	41%	18 of 43	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Louis Smolka	0	32 of 52	61%	32 of 52	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Casey Kenney	0	18 of 43	41%	18 of 43	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
1	Louis Smolka	0	32 of 52	61%	32 of 52	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey Kenney	18 of 43	41%	4 of 16	14 of 27	0 of 0	16 of 41	2 of 2	0 of 0
Louis Smolka	32 of 52	61%	15 of 34	5 of 6	12 of 12	31 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey Kenney	18 of 43	41%	4 of 16	14 of 27	0 of 0	16 of 41	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Louis Smolka	32 of 52	61%	15 of 34	5 of 6	12 of 12	31 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

"I like Kenny a lot in this fight I think he is better pretty much everywhere"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Casey Kenney

dog or pass situation

"i do lean with casey kenny the issue is that when the line's three to one that that that's when you start to get worried"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Kenney by decision

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Ryan MacDonald

TKO (punches) R1 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Louis Smolka	1	59 of 115	51%	60 of 116	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:09
Ryan MacDonald	0	30 of 80	37%	31 of 81	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Louis Smolka	1	59 of 115	51%	60 of 116	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:09
1	Ryan MacDonald	0	30 of 80	37%	31 of 81	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Louis Smolka	59 of 115	51%	27 of 61	31 of 52	1 of 2	57 of 112	2 of 3	0 of 0
Ryan MacDonald	30 of 80	37%	20 of 65	6 of 11	4 of 4	30 of 79	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Louis Smolka	59 of 115	51%	27 of 61	31 of 52	1 of 2	57 of 112	2 of 3	0 of 0
1	Ryan MacDonald	30 of 80	37%	20 of 65	6 of 11	4 of 4	30 of 79	0 of 1	0 of 0

LOSS vs Matt Schnell

Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:18 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos · Mar 09, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Matt Schnell	0	13 of 24	54%	14 of 25	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:18
Louis Smolka	0	14 of 40	35%	16 of 42	1 of 1	100%	2	0	0:28

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Matt Schnell	0	13 of 24	54%	14 of 25	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:18
1	Louis Smolka	0	14 of 40	35%	16 of 42	1 of 1	100%	2	0	0:28

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Matt Schnell	13 of 24	54%	9 of 17	1 of 2	3 of 5	12 of 23	0 of 0	1 of 1
Louis Smolka	14 of 40	35%	11 of 35	2 of 4	1 of 1	13 of 39	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Matt Schnell	13 of 24	54%	9 of 17	1 of 2	3 of 5	12 of 23	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Louis Smolka	14 of 40	35%	11 of 35	2 of 4	1 of 1	13 of 39	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Louis Smolka vs. Matt Schnell

Round 1
The next match is a bantamweight contest between Matt Schnell and Louis Smolka. The third man in the cage is Marcio Laselva. Schnell takes the center of the Octagon and lands a leg kick. Smolka with a left hook that just misses. Schnell with a left hook of his own that lands. Smolka ducks his head down and lands an overhand right right. Schnell returns with one of his own that lands hard and Smolka looks hurt. Schnell gets into the clinch and lands a knee. He lets go and both men exchange hooks on the break. Schnell gets into clinch again and lands a body lock takedown on Smolka. Schnell is now working in side control on the mat. Schnell locks in a guillotine choke and falls to his back. He is yanking the choke hard but somehow Smolka is defending it. Schnell has to let it go after Smolka defends it well but he continues to chain submissions.
Schnell has switched to a triangle choke now. It looks really tight and almost immediately Smolka is forced to tap out
. Wow. Impressive performance by Schnell.

The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Louis Smolka via Submission (Triangle Choke) R1, 3:18

WIN vs Sumudaerji

Submission (armbar) R2 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Louis Smolka	0	18 of 30	60%	20 of 33	0 of 0	---	2	1	0:26
Sumudaerji	0	32 of 62	51%	42 of 76	2 of 5	40%	1	0	5:59

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Louis Smolka	6 of 10	60%	8 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Sumudaerji	25 of 47	53%	35 of 61	1 of 3	33%	0	0	4:33
2	Louis Smolka	12 of 20	60%	12 of 20	0 of 0	---	2	1	0:26
2	Sumudaerji	7 of 15	46%	7 of 15	1 of 2	50%	1	0	1:26

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Louis Smolka	18 of 30	60%	18 of 29	0 of 1	0 of 0	4 of 12	0 of 1	14 of 17
Sumudaerji	32 of 62	51%	30 of 58	2 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 9	2 of 2	29 of 51

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Louis Smolka	6 of 10	60%	6 of 10	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 4	0 of 0	5 of 6
1	Sumudaerji	25 of 47	53%	23 of 43	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 4	2 of 2	23 of 41
2	Louis Smolka	12 of 20	60%	12 of 19	0 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 8	0 of 1	9 of 11
2	Sumudaerji	7 of 15	46%	7 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 5	0 of 0	6 of 10

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Louis Smolka vs. Su Mudaerji

Round 1
Smolka meets Mudaerji in the center of the cage and immediately drives him against the cage with a high single-leg shot. Mudaerji hits Smolka with a hard knee to the body, and the Hawaiian gives him one in return. Mudaerji breaks out of the clinch with a slashing elbow, then catches Smolka with a left hand as the “Last Samurai” shoots again. Smolka nearly winds up on the wrong end of the takedown attempt before finally wrestling Mudaerji to the ground with 3:30 on the clock. Smolka tries to pass guard, gets stuffed back and elbowed in the face by Mudaerji, who’s making things difficult for Smolka here at the midway point of the round. Smolka eats a few hard elbows, then postures up to drop shots straight down on Mudaerji. A failed armbar attempt from Mudaerji exposes his back, which Smolka takes with both hooks. Mudaerji flips over to escape the dangerous situation, breaking out of an arm-triangle choke in the process. Mudaerji gives up his back again, turtling up on his knees as Smolka sits up to try and pound him out. Referee Thomas Fan tells Mudaerji to fight back, then allows the Chinese fighter to take another 15 seconds of unanswered strikes until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-8 Smolka
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 Smolka
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Smolka

Round 2
Smolka goes straight across the cage again, but this time Mudaerji is waiting with a combination that sends the Hawaiian shooting for another takedown. Mudaerji drives several hard elbows into the side of Smolka’s head while defending the shot. Smolka keeps working for the takedown, however, and eventually puts Mudaerji on his back in the center of the cage. Mudaerji nearly hits a triangle, but Smolka wiggles free. Moments after escaping the submission attempt, Smolka catches Mudaerji in a tight armbar, and the “Tibetan Eagle” is forced to submit.

The Result
Louis Smolka def. Su Mudaerji via Submission (Armbar) R2 2:07

LOSS vs Matheus Nicolau

Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Dec 30, 2017

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Matheus Nicolau	0	49 of 159	30%	53 of 163	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:01
Louis Smolka	3	87 of 172	50%	107 of 196	3 of 4	75%	2	0	4:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Matheus Nicolau	0	7 of 43	16%	7 of 43	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
1	Louis Smolka	3	34 of 59	57%	42 of 69	0 of 0	---	1	1:59
2	Matheus Nicolau	0	27 of 74	36%	27 of 74	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Louis Smolka	0	32 of 70	45%	32 of 70	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Matheus Nicolau	0	15 of 42	35%	19 of 46	0 of 0	---	0	0:01
3	Louis Smolka	0	21 of 43	48%	33 of 57	3 of 4	75%	1	2:20

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Matheus Nicolau	49 of 159	30%	20 of 116	23 of 36	6 of 7	49 of 159	0 of 0	0 of 0
Louis Smolka	87 of 172	50%	47 of 114	38 of 56	2 of 2	72 of 150	0 of 0	15 of 22

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Matheus Nicolau	7 of 43	16%	3 of 35	4 of 8	0 of 0	7 of 43	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Louis Smolka	34 of 59	57%	22 of 42	12 of 17	0 of 0	22 of 40	0 of 0	12 of 19
2	Matheus Nicolau	27 of 74	36%	12 of 52	11 of 17	4 of 5	27 of 74	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Louis Smolka	32 of 70	45%	19 of 50	11 of 18	2 of 2	32 of 70	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Matheus Nicolau	15 of 42	35%	5 of 29	8 of 11	2 of 2	15 of 42	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Louis Smolka	21 of 43	48%	6 of 22	15 of 21	0 of 0	18 of 40	0 of 0	3 of 3

View all 17 fights

Expert Picks (3)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

"I like Kenny a lot in this fight I think he is better pretty much everywhere"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Casey Kenney

dog or pass situation

"i do lean with casey kenny the issue is that when the line's three to one that that that's when you start to get worried"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)

Casey Kenney

Kenney by decision

THE MMA GURU

Casey Kenney

Louis Smolka

Career Averages - Casey Kenney

Career Averages - Louis Smolka

Casey Kenney - Fight History

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Louis Smolka - Fight History

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Expert Picks (3)