UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill

Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.

Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.

Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.

Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.

Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.

Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal as an underdog by 29-28 decision. He thinks Luque takes too long to get going in three-rounders and Neal's power will earn respect. He believes Neal can keep range and avoid brawling, similar to how Randy Brown and Nico Price had success. He predicts Neal wins the first round clearly, edges the second, and survives the third.

Angelo has a slight lean towards Mohammed Usman due to his size, power, and physicality. He notes that Pauga is the better overall fighter but his size disadvantage at heavyweight could be decisive. He references Pauga being dropped by Terence Jacquez and believes a similar shot from Usman could finish him. However, he acknowledges Usman has had issues with wrestlers in the past.

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga, noting his speed and cardio advantages over Mohammed Usman. He criticizes Usman's low volume and poor cardio, and praises Pauga's takedown defense and improved striking. He predicts Pauga will stuff takedowns and win a decision, though he notes Pauga is undersized for heavyweight. He also mentions Pauga's training at Elevation Fight Team with Curtis Blaydes.

Cody also picks Pauga, highlighting his undefeated record and clean performances on TUF. He notes that Pauga is a natural 205-pounder who moved up for the show and will likely move back down. Cody contrasts Pauga's refined skills with Usman's poor losses and questionable wins, including a controversial decision. He believes Pauga's speed and output will overwhelm Usman.

Paul picks Pauga, noting that Pauga is a former football player with good mobility and athleticism. He mentions that Pauga looked impressive on The Ultimate Fighter, throwing spinning attacks and showing improvement. Paul is wary of laying -250 on a debuting heavyweight but sees Pauga as the clear pick.

The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga by third-round ground-and-pound TKO. He praises Pauga's technique and undefeated record, and criticizes Mohammed Usman's lack of commitment and poor performances. He believes Pauga's Samoan chin will allow him to take shots and break Usman down.

Angelo picks Brogan Walker based on experience. He notes Miller's intensity and pressure but believes Walker's composure and high-level experience will prevail. He thinks Walker can weather the storm and impose her will, while Miller might be overwhelmed by the moment. He plans to just enjoy the fight without betting.

Big Brady leans toward Brogan Walker, citing her experience advantage over the green Juliana Miller, who has only three professional fights. He notes that Walker has faced tougher competition and is a black belt in BJJ, though Miller is a more dangerous submission grappler. He believes Walker is the better striker and can keep the fight on the feet to win a decision. He acknowledges Miller's upside but favors Walker's current skill set.

Cody is confident in Miller, calling her a 'junkyard dog' with a grinding style. He praises her flexibility, funky jiu-jitsu, and willingness to scrap. Cody notes that Walker is a striker who tends to tire, and that Miller's pace and grappling will break her down. He sees multiple paths to victory for Miller, whether by submission or decision.

Paul leans toward Miller, citing her aggression and grappling ability. He notes that Miller is younger and less experienced but can push a pace that Walker may not handle. Paul thinks Miller's body lock takedowns and ground game give her an edge, and that Walker's experience may not be enough.

The MMA Guru picks Brogan Walker, citing her more experience and better technique from watching TUF. He thinks Walker is more technical and will win 30-27. He notes the UFC might want Miller to win for promotional reasons, but he still goes with Walker.

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.

Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.

Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.

Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.

Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.

Angelo is confident in Terrance McKinney despite his recent loss to Drew Dober. He emphasizes that McKinney dropped Dober multiple times and looked incredible before gassing, and believes Erick Gonzalez cannot survive that same onslaught. He expects McKinney to be more reserved but still win, and suggests he could be a parlay piece if his price isn't too high.

Big Brady is confident in Terrance McKinney, noting his 100% finish rate and the fact that he is a massive favorite. He highlights McKinney's power and underrated wrestling, and points out that Erick Gonzalez has poor takedown defense and has been submitted twice. He predicts a first-round submission win for McKinney, though he acknowledges that if the fight extends, McKinney has slowed down in the past.

Cody also picks McKinney, highlighting his explosive power and wrestling. He notes that McKinney's reckless style could lead to a counter, but Gonzalez has been knocked out before. Cody thinks the fight won't go past one round, but the odds offer no value. He jokes about McKinney's motivation to finish quickly.

Daniel Levi picks McKinney but refuses to lay -900, citing McKinney's one-round cardio and tendency to fade or get caught if the fight extends. He acknowledges McKinney's athleticism and speed should overwhelm Gonzalez, but the price is too steep for a fighter with cardio issues. He recommends passing on the bet.

Paul picks McKinney but notes the line is unbeatable. He mentions McKinney's all-action style and tendency to finish early. Paul is concerned about McKinney's recklessness but believes he will likely finish Gonzalez in the first round. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds at +195 as a potential play if Gonzalez can survive.

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney by first-round TKO, calling Erick Gonzalez a layup. He notes Gonzalez's KO loss to Jim Miller and lackluster regional record. He believes McKinney's speed and explosiveness will overwhelm Gonzalez, who may freeze up after his first KO loss. He acknowledges Gonzalez's size and reach but thinks McKinney is too quick.

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk despite his poor performance against Dustin Jacoby. He highlights Oleksiejczuk's speed and pressure, and notes that Sam Alvey's chin may be fading after getting rocked by Brendan Allen. He believes Oleksiejczuk can stay on the outside and avoid Alvey's wild strikes to win.

Big Brady is very confident in Michał Oleksiejczuk, noting that Sam Alvey is on an eight-fight winless streak and has not won since 2018. He describes Alvey's style as low-volume and predictable, while Oleksiejczuk is a fast starter who throws combinations and attacks the body. He predicts a first-round knockout win for Oleksiejczuk, stating that Alvey's chin is questionable and he expects a statement performance.

Cody also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting that Alvey's durability is fading and he has been stopped in recent fights. He mentions that Alvey's only chance is a puncher's chance, but his power hasn't been there. Cody believes Oleksiejczuk will swarm Alvey and finish him early, especially if Alvey goes into 'YOLO mode' for his last fight.

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk as part of a parlay with Jamahal Hill, citing Sam Alvey's eight-fight winless streak, low output, and declining chin. He expects Oleksiejczuk to walk Alvey down and land big body shots and hooks, likely finishing him in the first round. Levi notes Alvey's counter right hand and guillotine as minor threats but believes Oleksiejczuk's power and pressure will be too much.

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk but is wary of the -700 price. He notes that Alvey is on a long losing streak and has lost durability. Paul is concerned about Oleksiejczuk's weight cut to 185 and wants to see weigh-ins. He suggests props like Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140).

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk by first-round TKO via body shot. He notes Sam Alvey's recent decline, being finished by Brendan Allen and Julian Marquez. He praises Oleksiejczuk's toughness and win over Shamil Gamzatov, and believes Alvey has no answer on the feet or on the ground. He also mentions Oleksiejczuk is only 27 and improving.

Angelo picks Bryan Battle, describing him as a very busy striker with solid volume and head kicks. He notes Battle's grinding style and takedown attempts should earn him a decision win over Sato, who is hittable and lacks head movement. He references his own notes from Battle's previous fight, calling him 'very tough not amazing anywhere but very busy striker.'

Cody also picks Battle, highlighting his long-range kickboxing and ability to avoid takedowns. He notes that Sato's losses come against grapplers, and Battle is not an offensive wrestler. Cody believes Battle will stay at range and outpoint Sato, possibly by decision. He agrees that Battle's takedown total is likely under 2.

Daniel Levi leans Battle but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation, noting Battle's cardio and durability should allow him to break Sato down over time. He warns that Sato has power and could catch Battle, and that laying -270 on an unproven fighter like Battle is not advisable. He prefers Sato as a dog if forced to pick.

Paul picks Battle, noting that Battle is a striker with good range and output. He mentions that Sato is a power puncher who has been taken down by grapplers. Paul thinks Battle will use the threat of takedowns to open up his striking and win a decision. He is concerned about Battle's weight cut to 170.

Angelo picks Cory McKenna but expresses hesitation due to Miranda Granger's long layoff. He likes McKenna's pressure, pace, and grappling, believing her takedowns will be the difference. However, he notes that if the fight stays on the feet, Granger could outwork McKenna similar to how Elise Reed did. The uncertainty of Granger's improvements during her time off tempers his confidence.

Big Brady picks Cory McKenna but expresses hesitation due to her poor fight IQ in her last fight against Elise Reed, where she chose to strike instead of wrestling. He notes that McKenna has a significant reach disadvantage (9.5 inches) and that Granger has solid striking. However, he believes McKenna's wrestling is good and if she implements a smart game plan of takedowns and top control, she should win. He predicts a decision victory.

Cody also leans toward McKenna, noting that she should have wrestled more in her last fight. He mentions that Granger has poor takedown defense and a reach advantage, but McKenna's wrestling should be enough. Cody is concerned about McKenna's low ring IQ and hopes the loss taught her to wrestle earlier.

Daniel Levi leans Granger as a dog, noting her size (5'7", 68" reach) and two-year layoff could mean improvement. He hasn't been impressed with McKenna's UFC performances and thinks Granger could win if she's improved. However, he admits both fighters need work and advises not tailing.

Paul leans toward McKenna but is scared off by the price after she burned him last time. He notes that McKenna's wrestling should be the path to victory, but she didn't use it enough against Elise Reed. Paul thinks McKenna is young and improving, but her ring IQ is questionable. He still picks her for the show.

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Granger as an underdog, disagreeing with the majority. He criticizes Cory McKenna's wins over Kay Hansen and Vanessa Demopoulos, and her loss to Elise Reid. He notes Granger's size advantage (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" reach vs 58.5") and believes Granger will be too strong in grappling exchanges. He also mentions Granger's two-year layoff and prime age of 30.

Angelo picks Mayra Bueno Silva despite her takedown defense concerns. He notes she defended 19 takedowns combined in her three fights where she was taken down, and believes her physicality and striking should get her the win. He acknowledges the risk of being controlled on the ground but trusts her ability to keep it standing enough to win a decision.

Big Brady favors Mayra Bueno Silva as a dog, citing her superior striking volume and power, as well as her dangerous grappling off her back. He notes that Stephanie Egger's grappling is solid but her striking is still developing, and he believes Bueno Silva can keep the fight on the feet and outpoint Egger. He also mentions that if taken down, Bueno Silva is extremely active and dangerous on the mat. He predicts a decision win for Bueno Silva.

Cody also picks Bueno Silva, agreeing that she has the striking advantage. He notes that Egger's only path is to get the fight to the ground, but Bueno Silva has shown durability and ability to survive bad spots. Cody is concerned about Bueno Silva's habit of shaking off punches, which may not impress judges. He thinks she wins but won't lay money.

Daniel Levi picks Bueno Silva at underdog odds, citing her power striking and ability to land damage on the feet. He worries about her takedown defense, as Egger has a strong grappling background, but believes Bueno Silva can win by knockout or submission if she avoids being controlled. He likes the value since the line flipped.

Paul picks Bueno Silva as a dog, noting that she is strong, physical, and durable. He mentions that Egger is a judoka who needs the clinch, while Bueno Silva wants to strike. Paul thinks Bueno Silva's power and tenacity will be enough to rough up Egger. He is waiting for a better price, as the line has moved to +117.

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her toughness, durability, and excellent jiu-jitsu. He believes she can tough out positions and push the pace in later rounds, winning 29-28. He notes that Stephanie Egger's recent wins over Jessica-Rose Clark and others are not impressive, and that Bueno Silva has submissions and a draw with Montana De La Rosa.