Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland

December 17, 2022 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Jared Cannonier

Jared Cannonier W

18-9
Decision (split) (49–46, 46–49, 49–46) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Middleweight Completed

Jared Cannonier

Moneyline
Caesars -115
KO/TKO
BetRivers +260
Submission
BetRivers +1900
Decision
FanDuel +380

Sean Strickland

Moneyline
FanDuel +104
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
BetRivers +1500
Decision
FanDuel +230
Fighter Stats

Jared Cannonier

Age42
Height5' 11"
Reach77.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Sean Strickland

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jared Cannonier

4.42SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.35SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.54TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sean Strickland

6.04SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.57SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.71TD Avg
64.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, believing he is the more dangerous, stronger, and faster fighter. He thinks Cannonier has a good enough chin to handle Strickland's arm punches but needs to pick up the volume. He notes that if Cannonier lets his hands go, it could be one-sided, but if not, he could get jabbed to death. He considers Strickland overrated.

"I think Jared can win this fight he has a good enough chin to not have issues with the arm punches but he's gonna need to pick up the volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Cannonier, liking his power and expecting Strickland to stand and trade. He notes Strickland said he has no game plan and will just walk forward and brawl. He thinks Cannonier will have 25 minutes to land a big shot, especially since Strickland was recently knocked down. He predicts Cannonier wins by knockout, possibly in any round.

Cannonier wins by KO
"I'll take Cannon here to win I'll take Hannah near to win by really could be in any round I'll take anyone by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Strickland, believing he can execute a 25-minute game plan with high volume. He argues Strickland learned from the Pereira loss and can be smarter against Cannonier. He doesn't see Cannonier as an elite finisher like Pereira, so Strickland's durability and volume should earn a decision.

Strickland by decision plus 200
"I decided to go the other way and take Sean Strickland... I'm picking Sean Strickland but I don't necessarily think he's going to finish your kid in here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Sean Strickland

Strickland's style is better suited for Cannonier than for a taller fighter like Alex Pereira. Cannonier's knockout power is overrated due to Strickland's recent KO loss, but Strickland's pressure and volume should wear on Cannonier as the fight goes on. Expect close first two rounds, then Strickland pulls away. Strickland's durability and pace are key.

2.28 units at -114
"I think that this is a solid fight for him uh you know I think Cannon your strike or knockout power um or at least knockout threat in this matchup is being a tad bit over exaggerated due …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul picks Cannonier because he believes Strickland needs to fight a perfect fight to win, while Cannonier can land a bomb. He notes Cannonier has five-round experience and cardio, and lands more damaging shots. He took Cannonier at plus money, acknowledging it's not a lock but his side.

Cannonier plus 100
"I actually took uh Jared Cannon near plus 100 is one of the few remaining plus plus money Wagers on the board right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Sean Strickland, predicting a second-round KO. He believes Strickland is too basic and readable on the feet, and Cannonier will find his chin with hooks over the jab. He notes Cannonier's reach advantage and leg kicks, and compares Strickland's vulnerability to Alex Pereira's striking. He thinks Cannonier is the next best contender after Whittaker and Adesanya, and that Strickland is not elite at middleweight.

round 2 KO
"I'm definitely going to be going with Jared Cannon here who I believe also has a reach Advantage"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Arman Tsarukyan

Arman Tsarukyan W

23-3
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Lightweight Completed

Arman Tsarukyan

Moneyline
Caesars -190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +425
Submission
BetRivers +1050
Decision
FanDuel +140

Damir Ismagulov

Moneyline
FanDuel +176
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
DraftKings +3000
Decision
FanDuel +250
Fighter Stats

Arman Tsarukyan

Age29
Height5' 7"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Damir Ismagulov

Age35
Height5' 10"
Reach74.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Arman Tsarukyan

3.85SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
1.8SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
3.26TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Damir Ismagulov

3.36SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
2.44SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down
"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision
"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog
"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159
"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Amir Albazi

Amir Albazi W

17-3
KO (punches) R3 2:13
Fight 3 VS Flyweight Completed

Amir Albazi

Moneyline
DraftKings -425
KO/TKO
BetRivers +490
Submission
FanDuel +140
Decision
BetRivers +265

Alessandro Costa

Moneyline
BetRivers +375
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
BetRivers +2500
Decision
FanDuel +750
Fighter Stats

Amir Albazi

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alessandro Costa

Age30
Height5' 4"
Reach67.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Amir Albazi

2.47SLpM
33.0%Str. Acc.
3.88SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.18TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alessandro Costa

3.73SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.72SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.79TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Angelo loves Albazi here, expecting him to point strike and work in takedowns for a clear win, potentially a stoppage. He notes Albazi is better everywhere except raw power. He thinks Albazi is good for parlays and expects a dominant performance.

Plans to bet on Albazi minus 3.5 (bet online exclusive) because he doesn't see Albazi giving up a round
"I love albazi here he's definitely going to need to be careful with the raw power of Costa but he should be better literally everywhere outside of raw power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Big Brady picks Albazi, calling him the real deal and a level above Costa. He notes Costa is a good fighter with power and BJJ, but Albazi was scheduled to fight top contenders. He sees no path for Costa to win—not by KO, decision, or submission. He predicts Albazi wins a 30-27 decision.

Albazi wins by decision
"I'll take all bazzi to win by decision I know we went out there and submitted uh Malcolm Gordon... but I'll say Costa you know being a black belt being a very tough guy hangs in there and …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes Albazi's striking is solid and he has good durability. He thinks Costa is in a tough spot on short notice and Albazi will take him down and strangle him. He is not confident in a prop but will play Albazi high.

"I'm definitely going to support all Bosie and of course I'll be playing him higher up this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host bet the over 1.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks Costa is better than Albazi's recent opponents and that the fight will be competitive for at least a round and a half. He even considers an Albazi decision at +225. No clear winner pick.

Over 1.5 rounds at -179, 1.79 units to win 1 unit; also mentioned Albazi by decision +225
"I do think that Costa is is better than the fighters that albazi has been finishing over his last couple fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Paul picks Albazi, noting he has been a freight train, taking guys down and choking them out. He questions Costa's grappling level and thinks Albazi's submission skills are on another level. He mentions Albazi's striking looks good and he is agile. He considers inside the distance props.

inside the distance minus 120 (mentioned as a potential bet)
"amir's been an absolute freight train just running dudes over taking them down choking them out... albazi is the pick I just don't really know how to attack this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi over Alessandro Costa, citing Albazi's dominant performances in the flyweight division, including submissions over Francisco Figueiredo and Malcolm Gordon. He notes Costa is good but is stepping up on short notice, which is too much of an ask. He expects Albazi to find a submission, as he has been training for top opponents like Alex Perez and Brandon Royval.

"I'm going to mirror al-basa"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alex Caceres

Alex Caceres W

21-15
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 3:04
Fight 4 VS Featherweight Completed

Alex Caceres

Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
BetRivers +1100
Decision
FanDuel +320

Julian Erosa

Moneyline
FanDuel -166
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
FanDuel +185
Fighter Stats

Alex Caceres

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach73.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Julian Erosa

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach74.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Alex Caceres

4.21SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.09SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
0.54TD Avg
68.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Julian Erosa

6.18SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
6.31SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.73TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo is very confident in Julian Erosa, believing he can win the stand-up exchanges and stay alive on the ground. He notes Erosa has more power, volume, and good enough takedowns to keep Caceres guessing. He acknowledges Caceres' experience could sneak out a win but thinks Erosa is dangerous and well-rounded enough.

"I love Julian erosa in this spot and he's one of the few confident picks I have on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa, noting that Erosa is typically an underdog but is favored here. He likes Erosa's volume, pressure, power, and submission game. He thinks Caceres lacks power and has been submitted many times. He expects Erosa to break Caceres and get a second-round submission.

Erosa wins by submission in round 2
"I like a Rosa to kind of break because Sarah says the fight goes on and I'll say Rosa gets a second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa, noting his inconsistency but coming off a good performance against Hakeem Dawodu. He thinks Erosa has all the intangibles: volume, movement, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Caceres is a gatekeeper who beats lower-level guys but loses to legit fighters. He expects Erosa to outwork Caceres and win by decision.

Erosa by decision
"I gotta go with that man he looks so complete against Hakeem... I think Rosa wins gross wins by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host bet the over 2.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks both guys are durable and neither has big knockout power, so it should go to decision. He leans Erosa to win but doesn't like the -170 moneyline. No clear winner pick.

Over 2.5 rounds at -155, 1.55 units; mentioned Erosa by decision
"I don't really think considers has that big pop in his shots to put him down and put him out same on the erosa side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa, agreeing with Cody. He notes his biggest concern with Erosa is his chin against power punchers, but Caceres is not a one-hitter quitter. He expects Erosa to clear 65.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, as he throws high volume and the fight likely goes to decision.

Erosa over 65.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I will be adding erosa significant strikes more than 65.5 on price picks"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa over Alex Caceres, believing Erosa's pace, pressure, and wrestling will be too much. He notes Caceres is vegan and Erosa goes to the body a lot, which could be a factor. He thinks Caceres won't finish Erosa, and Erosa's grappling is too good to get submitted. He predicts a third-round finish or decision win for Erosa, citing his recent wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Nate Landwehr.

"I'll go Juliana Rosa I think it's time to stop doubting him as a fighter"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Drew Dober

Drew Dober W

29-15
KO (punch) R2 2:45
Fight 5 VS Lightweight Completed

Drew Dober

Moneyline
BetRivers -165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +240
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
FanDuel +230

King Green

Moneyline
Caesars +145
KO/TKO
BetRivers +800
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
FanDuel +230
Fighter Stats

Drew Dober

Age37
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

King Green

Age39
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Drew Dober

4.48SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
4.33SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.61TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - King Green

6.38SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.58SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
1.31TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober hesitantly, acknowledging that this is a very tough fight to call. He notes Dober has a great chin and power, while Bobby Green is more technically sound with higher volume and better defense. He worries that Dober might get touched up like in the Nazrat fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this fight due to low confidence.

Will not bet on this fight; staying away
"I'm going with Drew Dover here because I think he's the more dangerous guy but this could look a lot like Bobby vs nazrat where Drew dober's just getting touched up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green as an underdog, citing his recent impressive performances and high volume. He worries about Green's fight IQ and the judges, but thinks Green will outland Dober. He notes Dober will land the harder shots but Green's volume should win rounds. He also mentions Green could wrestle but likely won't. He predicts a close decision win for Green.

Green wins by decision
"I will take Bobby green for the upset I'll take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody picks Dober, believing his power and durability will sway judges. He notes Dober sits down on his punches and has good leg kicks. He thinks Green's flat-footed boxing style and head-shaking may not impress judges. He expects a close decision win for Dober and considers Dober by decision.

Dober by decision
"I'm gonna go with Drew Dober... I think Drew dope is going to get his hand raised so I will play Dober and then to sweeten the action a little bit because minus 150 just not good enough …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
King Green

Green is a solid spot here. Dober has recency bias from two straight KOs, but Green is much more durable than those opponents (Rafael Alves, Terrence McKinney). Green will outstrike Dober, throw more combinations, and take home a decision. The line stayed around +130 to +135.

Bet at +130 to +135 range
"Bobby green is not those last two guys right Bobby green um why am I blinking on him well just a complete brain fart right there Rafael Alves you know I mean he's not Raphael office he's better …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul leans Green, thinking he is a cleaner, more dynamic boxer who can win on volume. He notes Green has insane durability and will outland Dober. However, he is hesitant because Dober lands bigger shots and judges may favor damage. He says if the lines were flipped he wouldn't touch it, but at plus money he considers it.

"I kind of want to bet Bobby green Cody... I think he ends up winning the volume and then it comes down to like when this goes to a scorecard"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks King Green over Drew Dober, despite many picking Dober. He compares Dober to Rafael Fiziev, whom Green nearly beat, and believes Green's style of straight punches and range control will trouble Dober. He notes Green's reach and height advantages and expects him to pepper Dober, swelling his eye and nose, and win a 29-28 decision. He also thinks Dober may not react well to Green's taunting.

"I'ma go Bobby green"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

MI

Michał Oleksiejczuk W

KO (punches) R1 3:16
Fight 6 VS Middleweight Completed

Michał Oleksiejczuk

Moneyline
DraftKings -245
KO/TKO
BetMGM -105
Submission
BetRivers +1900
Decision
FanDuel +420

Cody Brundage

Moneyline
FanDuel +235
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1050
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
FanDuel +850
Fighter Stats

Michał Oleksiejczuk

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Cody Brundage

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Michał Oleksiejczuk

5.85SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
4.5SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.02TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cody Brundage

2.26SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.02SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.88TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing that Cody Brundage is on short notice and he is wary of short notice fights at the end of the year. He thinks Oleksiejczuk can weather an early storm and potentially take a decision or late finish. He notes Oleksiejczuk has shoddy takedown defense but believes his speed and power will be enough.

Plans to bet on Cody Brundage more takedowns (prop bet) if the line is reasonable (e.g., -350 to -400)
"I think McCall's going to be able to weather an early storm potentially take a decision or even maybe a late finish McCall's gonna be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Oleksiejczuk to win by first-round knockout, noting his striking advantage and power. He acknowledges Brundage has good wrestling and could submit Oleksiejczuk if he gets takedowns, but thinks Oleksiejczuk's takedown defense may have improved. He expects the fight to start on the feet where Oleksiejczuk has a significant edge and will finish early.

Oleksiejczuk wins by KO in round 1
"I'll take Ola zaychuk to knock out Cody Brundage here... I'll take old zhuk to win by first round finish here knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody picks Oleksiejczuk, emphasizing his dynamic striking and power. He notes Brundage is there to get hit and has slow starts. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's cardio may be better at 185 and he will finish early. He likes under 2.5 rounds and inside the distance by knockout.

under 2.5 rounds, inside the distance by knockout
"I'm gonna go with the the Michael Alexa Chuck um inside the distance more specifically by knockout I think he gets the job done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Cody Brundage

Oleksiejczuk looks like a killer but struggles when taken down and put on his back. Brundage has the ground game to get him down and either submit or TKO from top position. It will be a sweat getting the fight to the ground, but once there, Brundage should dominate.

1 unit at +230
"the fact of the matter is when guys are able to get him to the ground uh he looks like a fish water out of water off of his back"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk, noting he looked good at middleweight against Sam Alvey. He thinks Brundage is not elite and has been in tough spots. He expects Oleksiejczuk to land a knockout, as he is more talented and younger. He is concerned about cardio but thinks the power will be enough.

Oleksiejczuk inside the distance, specifically by knockout
"Mikey oh Mikey oh knockout is that how this one shakes out what do you think"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk over Cody Brundage, citing Oleksiejczuk's crisp striking and experience. He notes Brundage is explosive but has a fluke factor to his wins, and was getting beaten up by Daukšas before finding a guillotine. He believes Oleksiejczuk is more prepared, having trained for a similar opponent, and predicts a first-round KO. He also mentions Brundage took the fight on short notice, which may affect his performance.

"I'm going with Macau Alex a truck here over Cody brandage"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Cory McKenna

Cory McKenna W

8-4
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Cory McKenna

Moneyline
BetWay +163
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
FanDuel +250

Cheyanne Vlismas

Moneyline
FanDuel -184
KO/TKO
DraftKings +500
Submission
BetRivers +1600
Decision
FanDuel +110
Fighter Stats

Cory McKenna

Age26
Height5' 3"
Reach58.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Cheyanne Vlismas

Age30
Height5' 3"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Cory McKenna

2.94SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
3.68SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
2.0TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cheyanne Vlismas

4.93SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.57SApM
64.0%Str. Def.
0.25TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

Angelo gives a slight lean to Cory McKenna, expecting her to set a relentless grappling pace and take a decision. He notes Cheyanne has improved takedown defense but thinks McKenna's takedown offense has also improved. He believes the fight comes down to volume and takedowns, and if Cheyanne is too afraid to commit to strikes, she'll give up rounds.

Plans to bet over 2.5 rounds (decision) as part of a round prop parlay
"I'm gonna go slight lean for Corey I think she sets a Relentless grappling place and takes this decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cheyanne Vlismas

Big Brady picks Vlismas, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He doesn't trust McKenna after her poor performance against Elise Reed where she refused to wrestle and looked bad on the feet. He thinks McKenna's takedowns will be harder to get against Vlismas, and even if she gets them, she won't hold her down. He predicts Vlismas by decision.

Vlismas wins by decision
"I like lisbus here I think she's a better Striker by a mile... give me Bliss Mr win give me voice Miss to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cheyanne Vlismas

Cody picks Vlismas, believing she is talented and has good volume. He thinks she has improved and is a dark horse in the division. He notes McKenna's wrestling is not elite and Vlismas has solid takedown defense. He expects Vlismas to win by decision, outworking McKenna on the feet.

Vlismas by decision
"I gotta go the other way I gotta go to Cheyenne blismus... I just feel like her ability to stay up on the feet more often than not and then use the volume use the Striking"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cheyanne Vlismas

Connor likes Vlismas's distance command, power, and strike selection. He notes McKenna is young and scrappy but has a bad case of pad holder syndrome, not following through on strikes. He expects Vlismas to find her range repeatedly and bully McKenna, even if McKenna takes a round.

"I really like the distance command power and strike selection of lissimus a lot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Cheyanne Vlismas

Vlismas is the far superior striker and should be able to solve McKenna's takedowns and get back to her feet if taken down. McKenna's top pressure could be an issue, but Vlismas is too athletic. She will light McKenna up on the feet. The host would have made her a lock if he had more recent data on her off-her-back game.

2 units at -195
"I think that Cheyenne too athletic I think she'll be able to solve the takedowns I think she gets back to her feet if she gets taken down and then I think she's the far superior Striker and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

Paul picks McKenna but is hesitant, hoping she sticks to wrestling. He notes she has T-Rex arms and must get the fight to the mat. He is frustrated by her previous fight where she didn't wrestle enough. He thinks she can win by grappling-based decision or submission if she follows the game plan.

"I'm gonna pick Corey McKenna hopefully she sticks to wrestling like she's got a 58 inch reach man T-Rex arms like we are not winning this fight at range"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

The MMA Guru picks Cory McKenna over Cheyanne Vlismas, believing McKenna's grappling will be the difference. He notes Vlismas has a stand-up advantage but a massive hole in her grappling, as shown in her loss to Montserrat Ruiz where she had no answer for head-and-arm throws. He expects McKenna to out-grapple her and potentially submit her in the first two rounds. He also thinks Vlismas will be too worried about takedowns to effectively strike.

"I'm gonna go Corey McKenna"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cheyanne Vlismas

Zane agrees with Connor, noting Vlismas is a willing, accurate, and powerful counter puncher with excellent range command. He thinks McKenna will start aggressive but eventually get bullied. He also mentions Vlismas's takedown defense is a question but not a deep problem.

"I just have a lot more faith in Whismas to to find her range repeatedly"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Matthew Semelsberger

Matthew Semelsberger W

11-8
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Welterweight Completed

Matthew Semelsberger

Moneyline
DraftKings +255
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
BetRivers +2500
Decision
DraftKings +475

Jake Matthews

Moneyline
FanDuel -275
KO/TKO
BetRivers +480
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
BetWay +150
Fighter Stats

Matthew Semelsberger

Age33
Height6' 1"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Jake Matthews

Age31
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Matthew Semelsberger

3.77SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.24SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.01TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
45.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jake Matthews

3.34SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.44TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo loves Jake Matthews in this spot, citing that Semelsberger was taken down four times by AJ Fletcher on short notice and was out-volumed by Alex Morono. He believes Matthews will out-volume Semelsberger on the feet and take him down for control. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power keeps him live but prefers Matthews.

"I love Jake Matthews in this spot and the reason I love him is that semmonsberger versus AJ Fletcher fight AJ took Matt down 4 four times on short notice"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, emphasizing that Matthews has a clear path to victory through wrestling. He notes Semelsberger has a big hole in his takedown defense and has been submitted before. If Matthews wrestles, he should have success and can find a submission. However, if Matthews strikes, it could be close and he might get knocked out. He predicts a second-round submission.

Matthews wins by submission in round 2
"I'm gonna take Matthews to win by second round sub so give me Jake Matthews to win Jake Matthews to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, emphasizing his well-rounded game and development. He notes Semelsberger is big but not elite, and Matthews can win by wrestling or striking. He considers Matthews inside the distance but acknowledges Matthews has many decisions. He will play Matthews straight up.

Matthews inside the distance (considered)
"I think he gets it I really want to try a Matthews inside the distance... I'll just play the straight up Jake Matthews"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor picks Matthews, citing his improved timing and switch-ups, plus the wrestling threat. He thinks Semelsberger is still growing and needs more technique to feel confident. He notes Semelsberger can get shook early but Matthews should be able to delay his confidence.

"I think combined with the wrestling threat like there's yeah Jake matthews has a game that is really going to benefit from a I mean his athleticism"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Paul picks Matthews, noting he is coming into his own and looked great against Fialho. He thinks Matthews has a path to wrestling and can also win at range. He hates the price but believes it's about right. He is not sure if he will bet it because the line is accurate.

"Jake Matthews is the pick for me not sure if I'm gonna be betting it because I think the bookies got this line right"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The MMA Guru picks Jake Matthews over Matthew Semelsberger, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Matthews has hit a different level in his career, with crisp hands and improved boxing, as seen against Andre Fialho. He notes Matthews' underrated wins, including over Li Jingliang, and thinks he will box up Semelsberger for a 30-27 decision. He considers Semelsberger bottom-of-the-barrel, only beating lower-level opponents, and expects Matthews to mix in grappling if needed.

"Jake Matthews versus Matt simmonsberger no brainer Jake Matthews wins this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane agrees with Connor, noting Matthews has become a tricky fighter with good timing. He thinks Semelsberger needs more seasoning and a way to establish himself without a big right hand. He expects Matthews to win via power and switch-ups.

"I'm definitely still gonna pick matthews again the the power the switch ups"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Said Nurmagomedov

Said Nurmagomedov W

18-5
Submission (ninja choke) R2 3:50
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Said Nurmagomedov

Moneyline
BetRivers -105
KO/TKO
BetRivers +540
Submission
BetRivers +900
Decision
FanDuel +250

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Moneyline
FanDuel -110
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
BetRivers +220
Fighter Stats

Said Nurmagomedov

Age34
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Said Nurmagomedov

3.08SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.05SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
15.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Saidyokub Kakhramonov

2.05SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
0.88SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
6.63TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
1.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Angelo picks Kakhramonov, hoping he brings the same wrestling pace as in his last fight against Ronnie Lawrence, where he had 10 takedowns and 12 minutes of control. He notes that Said Nurmagomedov is not a wrestler despite his last name, but a flashy striker with only two takedowns in the UFC. He expects Kakhramonov to bully Said.

"I like hakramanov in this fight I hope that he has that same energy here that same wrestling Pace here that he did against Ronnie"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Big Brady picks Kakhramonov as an underdog, impressed by his wins over Ronnie Lawrence (taking him down 10 times) and Trevin Jones (submission). He thinks Kakhramonov is a different level and can pass this test against Nurmagomedov, who he's never been high on. He expects a close, competitive fight but picks Kakhramonov by decision.

Kakhramonov wins by decision
"I like Cocker Mana the dude's only 27 years old I don't think it's going to be an easy fight by any means... I'm gonna take cockerman after to win this fight I'm gonna take him to Win …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Cody picks Kakhramonov, noting his size and strength advantage. He thinks Kakhramonov will get takedowns and control the fight. He was impressed by his performance against Ronnie Lawrence where he ragdolled him. He expects a decision win for Kakhramonov.

Kakhramonov by decision
"I gotta say kakramona of a cracker modified decision that's what I'm gonna go with"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Nurmagomedov but is hesitant, calling it a trap fight. He thinks Nurmagomedov can find enough moments to land big and take advantage of Kakhramonov's wild entries. However, he notes Kakhramonov is a dogged technical wrestler who could steal momentum.

"I'm gonna pick Nurmagomedov still but you know this has the feeling of a trap"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Kakhramonov is relentless with takedowns and has better technical wrestling than Nurmagomedov's previous opponents. Nurmagomedov has the striking advantage but doesn't give himself many chances to win outside of a finish. Lesser wrestlers have had grappling success against Nurmagomedov, and Kakhramonov will grind out a win.

2 units at -107
"the guy moves forward the guy Relentless with his takedown she was the better technical wrestler that night and had likely the cardio Advantage which is why I think that he came out on top"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Paul picks Kakhramonov, agreeing with Cody. He was surprised by his performance against Lawrence and thinks he is a real prospect. He notes Kakhramonov has good wrestling and size. He expects a decision but acknowledges judging could be an issue.

"I'm with you I got cockramanum I got cockerman of by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

The MMA Guru picks Saidyokub Kakhramonov over Said Nurmagomedov, going against the majority. He questions Nurmagomedov's cardio, noting he slowed down against Douglas Silva de Andrade and Kyler Phillips. He praises Kakhramonov's pace and wrestling, citing his 10 takedowns against Ronnie Lawrence. He believes Kakhramonov will drown Nurmagomedov as the fight goes on and get an upset 29-28 decision. He also notes Kakhramonov is younger at 27 and still improving, while Nurmagomedov is 30 and may be at his peak.

"I'm going inside Jacob kakaramanov here younger I believe more dangerous"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov but is leaning, noting it's a wide open fight. He thinks Nurmagomedov can win rounds with single moments and kick Kakhramonov's legs. However, he acknowledges Kakhramonov's wrestling could be a problem and that Nurmagomedov's striking is pot-shotty.

"I think Nurmagomedov can find enough moments to land big can take enough advantage of the wildness"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Rafa García

Rafa García W

19-4
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Catchweight (158.5 lb) Completed

Rafa García

Moneyline
BetWay -143
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1300
Submission
BetWay +600
Decision
BetWay +140

Maheshate

Moneyline
DraftKings +140
KO/TKO
FanDuel +320
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
FanDuel +380
Fighter Stats

Rafa García

Age31
Height5' 7"
Reach70"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Maheshate

Age26
Height6' 0"
Reach71"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Rafa García

4.31SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.54SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
3.13TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Maheshate

3.96SLpM
31.0%Str. Acc.
5.96SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, noting that Maheshate gets taken down easily and Rafa has 18 takedowns in his last four fights. He likes Rafa's chin and offensive grappling to get the job done. He mentions the line has flipped from Maheshate being favorite to near even money, and he has already placed a moneyline bet on Rafa for premium members.

Has a moneyline bet on Rafa García; notes line movement
"I like Rafa here I think mahasete is definitely dangerous but he also gets taken down easily and Rafa Garcia has 18 takedowns in his last four fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García but is very hesitant due to lack of information on Maheshate. He notes García's path to victory is takedowns, but his top control is poor and he has cardio issues. Maheshate has a size advantage and may have improved takedown defense. Brady says it's a tough fight to call and he's staying away from betting, but leans García by decision.

"I am going to take Rafa Garcia to go out there um mixing takedowns and win a decision in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Cody picks Garcia, noting his grinding style and cardio improvements. He thinks Garcia will take Maheshate down and grind him out. He notes Maheshate is a slow starter and Garcia has a good chin. He expects a decision win for Garcia.

Garcia by decision
"Rafa Garcia again I'm leading towards another decision on this one... gotta go with Rafa Garcia"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Connor picks Garcia, noting he is the well-rounded fighter and should win if he wrestles. He thinks Garcia is tough and can out-wrestle Maheshate, whose defensive wrestling is questionable. He acknowledges Garcia can lose random fights but expects him to win.

"I'll take garcia. That seems like enough"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Maheshate

Paul picks Maheshate as an underdog, noting his size and striking skills. He is concerned about Garcia's takedowns but thinks Maheshate can land a big shot. He sees value at plus money and is willing to take a shot. He makes it a Shoei bet with Cody.

"I'm gonna back my guy my shot the market is working its way away from me at this point... I'll take your two to one on this uh this whole Shoei operation uh I'll take my shot you …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García over Hayisaer Maheshate, going against the majority. He notes García's close fight with Jai Herbert and his submission win over Genesis Ronson. He questions Maheshate's competition and KO rate, pointing out that Maheshate took a decision against a 10-15 opponent. He expects García to pressure with a good chin and mix in grappling, potentially getting a late submission or decision win. He also mentions that Maheshate lost to a grappler in M1.

"I'm going half a Garcia here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Maheshate

Zane picks Maheshate as a random chance pick, partly to avoid being mocked by a Twitter account he thinks might be Maheshate. He admits Garcia should win but thinks Maheshate could knock him out early. He notes Maheshate has good timing and hand speed.

"I'll take mahashate just because I don't want him to make fun of me again"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Rinat Fakhretdinov W

24-1-1
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Welterweight Completed

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Moneyline
FanDuel -148
KO/TKO
BetRivers +390
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
FanDuel +210

Bryan Battle

Moneyline
DraftKings +135
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
BetRivers +800
Decision
BetRivers +275
Fighter Stats

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Age34
Height6' 0"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Bryan Battle

Age31
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Rinat Fakhretdinov

5.03SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
3.61SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
3.91TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
91.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Bryan Battle

5.12SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
4.11SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
0.77TD Avg
17.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Angelo picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing that Bryan Battle is stepping up on short notice and facing the toughest opponent of his career. He believes Fakhretdinov's wrestling will be the difference, as Battle has poor takedown accuracy. He acknowledges Battle is a live underdog and plans to look for prop bets on him.

Plans to look for plus 3.5 or win inside distance (decision no action) on Bryan Battle
"I'm gonna go with we're not here and I think his wrestling is going to be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Big Brady picks Bryan Battle as an underdog, citing Fakhretdinov's padded record against low-level competition. He likes Battle's striking, power, opportunistic submission game, and cardio. However, he notes Battle is hittable and has defensive issues, and Fakhretdinov has power. He expects Fakhretdinov to have early success but Battle to wear on him and get a late submission. He needs to see Battle's weight cut to increase confidence.

Battle wins by submission in round 2
"I like uh Brian battle to win the fight pull off the upset and I'll say late second round submission win for Brian battle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Cody picks Battle as an underdog, believing his volume and striking can win rounds. He thinks Fakhretdinov's lay-and-pray style may not impress judges. He notes Battle has good takedown defense and cardio. He is not confident but sees value.

"I think Brian battle could just land the better shots in that space right so uh yeah slide Underdog clay Brian battle"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Connor picks Fakhretdinov, expecting him to come out dedicated to an ugly wrestling game. He notes Battle is too takedownable and depends on scrambling after bad stuff. He thinks Fakhretdinov's clingy wrestling will be the answer to Battle's volume-based style.

"I'm just gonna pick fakratina of I think he'll just come out dedicated to an ugly wrestling game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Bryan Battle

Battle's style, pace, and pressure will cause Fakhretdinov problems, making him work too much and slow down. Battle either finishes in the third or wins a decision. The line moved against the host to +130, but he still likes the matchup. The main question is whether Battle can maintain his cardio at this weight class.

1.5 units at +112 (dog of the night)
"I love his overall style I love his Pace I love his you know never really settling for bad positions or anything like that and I think that's going to cause we're not some problems tonight make him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Paul picks Fakhretdinov, noting his wrestling and control. He thinks Battle's takedown defense is not elite and Fakhretdinov will take him down. He is not sure about betting because of judging concerns but picks him.

"I'm gonna go with renault's uh I don't think I'm gonna be betting that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Bryan Battle, disagreeing with the majority picking Battle. He highlights Fakhretdinov's dominant wrestling, citing 14 minutes of control time against Andreas Michailidis and a recent freestyle wrestling match where he made his opponent retire. He notes Battle took the fight on short notice and questions his preparation, suggesting Battle might be looking for a paycheck before Christmas. He believes Fakhretdinov's grappling is a different level and that Battle's takedown defense won't be enough.

"I'm going with renat for cretinov I know a lot of people are picking Brian Batson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Zane agrees, noting Fakhretdinov's persistent wrestling game is the kryptonite to Battle's style of weathering attacks. He thinks Battle has no full dimension while Fakhretdinov has one strong dimension. He expects Fakhretdinov to take Battle down and test his guard.

"I think that like an insanely clingy persistent wrestling game is like the eqr to that approach"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Manel Kape

Manel Kape W

22-7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 12 VS Flyweight Completed

Manel Kape

Moneyline
FanDuel -200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +190
Submission
BetRivers +1300
Decision
FanDuel +220

David Dvořák

Moneyline
BetRivers +195
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1050
Submission
BetMGM +1500
Decision
BetMGM +350
Fighter Stats

Manel Kape

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

David Dvořák

Age33
Height5' 5"
Reach68"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Manel Kape

5.04SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
4.08SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.4TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - David Dvořák

3.48SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.29SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
0.58TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
David Dvořák

Angelo picks David Dvořák, believing his technical soundness and leg kicks will neutralize Manel Kape's explosiveness. He expects a somewhat boring fight similar to Dvořák's last one, with Dvořák chopping down the tree and taking a decision. He notes Kape can be hesitant and lets opponents set the pace.

Plans to bet on Dvořák plus 3.5 (bet online exclusive) because he thinks Dvořák can win or at least lose a 29-28 decision
"I like Dvorak to chop down the tree and take the decision this is a striker for Striker but I do think it's gonna be a pretty boring fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady likes Kape to finish Dvořák, noting Kape's 94% finish rate as a flyweight. He acknowledges Kape can be low-volume and has lost decisions when he doesn't let his hands go, but in recent fights he's been more active. He thinks Kape's takedown defense has improved, and if he keeps it on the feet he'll land a big shot. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Kape wins by KO in round 2
"I like cop here I think is very dangerous I like him to finish Dvorak and I will say he does finish him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Cody picks Kape, noting his dynamic striking and power. He thinks Kape has turned a corner with his aggression and volume. He notes Dvořák is durable but low output, and Kape's shots will matter more. He expects Kape to get the job done.

"sign me up from mental copy get the job done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Connor picks Kape, citing his fight-changing power and athleticism. He notes Dvořák got rocked multiple times by Nicolau and Kape is faster and more powerful. He thinks Kape's pressure will be effective and that Dvořák's consistency may not overcome Kape's danger.

"I just can't really look at that nikolov fight in particular and see dvorak just getting rocked so many times without leaning towards mano cop"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
David Dvořák

Dvořák has many paths to victory if he stays safe. He was a -125 favorite against Nico last time, showing his potential. After one loss, Kape is now a big favorite, which doesn't make sense. If the fight goes the full 15 minutes, the +205 will look good. Dvořák needs to stay conscious.

1 unit at +205
"Dvorak has a lot of uh paths to Victory here if he can stay safe uh which is possible"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul picks Kape but is not confident, noting both fighters are low volume. He thinks the minus 235 is scary if it goes to decision. He sees Dvořák as the value side but picks Kape for the show.

"I'll pick cop for the purposes of the show but not a spot that I have very very much confidence in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over David Dvořák, believing Kape should have beaten Matheus Nicolau and has looked impressive against Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Ode' Osbourne. He questions Dvořák's level, noting his close fight with Nicolau and lack of explosiveness. He sees Kape as more explosive with higher finishing potential and good work on the outside, where Dvořák operates. He predicts a 29-28 or 30-27 decision win for Kape.

"I'm going to be going with manil cap here over David Dvorak"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Zane picks Kape, noting he is a more dangerous, faster, harder-hitting fighter. He thinks Dvořák is consistent but Kape's power is rare at flyweight. He acknowledges Dvořák could find a back take in a scramble but expects Kape to hit him hard enough to prevent that.

"It is really just a simple athleticism pick like cop it's just a more dangerous faster harder hitting fighter"
Fight Notes

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Sergey Morozov

Sergey Morozov W

19-5
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 13 VS Bantamweight Completed

Sergey Morozov

Moneyline
FanDuel -290
KO/TKO
BetRivers +370
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +155

Journey Newson

Moneyline
BetWay +275
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
BetRivers +2500
Decision
BetRivers +575
Fighter Stats

Sergey Morozov

Age36
Height5' 6"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Journey Newson

Age37
Height5' 5"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Sergey Morozov

3.01SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
2.97SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
3.63TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Journey Newson

2.64SLpM
32.0%Str. Acc.
2.57SApM
64.0%Str. Def.
0.56TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
43.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Angelo gives a slight lean to Sergey Morozov, citing his better takedown defense and ability to stop takedown attempts while getting his own. However, he notes that Journey Newson looked incredible in his last fight and that version could beat Sergey. He believes this should be a 50/50 fight and plans to find a way to bet on Journey Newson as well.

Plans to bet on Journey Newson as underdog
"I'm gonna do I'm just gonna give the the slightest lean towards Sergey here because I think he's got the better takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady likes Morozov to win but is hesitant due to durability concerns, noting Morozov has been finished in four of five losses and gets hurt often. However, he thinks Newson isn't a big power puncher so it shouldn't be a major issue. He expects Morozov to mix in takedowns and grind out a three-round decision. He can't get behind the moneyline at -300 but picks Morozov by decision.

Morozov by decision
"I like him to win I think a striking solid but I think in this matchup he's going to be able to go out there mixing takedowns whenever he wants... give me Rose off to win this one …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody picks Morozov, noting his wrestling and well-rounded skills. He thinks Newson is a boxer with limited MMA skills and Morozov will take him down and control him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible.

Morozov by decision (considered)
"the pick will be certain Immortals yeah pick for me is going to be Sergey Morrison as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Connor picks Morozov, noting he is a high-level fighter with an aggressive, put-together game. He thinks Morozov will be the aggressive one, come forward, wrestle, and land combinations. He notes Newson is not durable and his game seems experimental.

"I just think morozov is given that kind of opponent he's like, oh i'm going to be the aggressive one. Great."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Paul picks Morozov, agreeing with Cody. He thinks Morozov's wrestling will be too much for Newson. He notes Newson's only path is a puncher's chance. He is not excited about the price but sees Morozov as a safe pick.

"roseov will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov over Journey Newson, citing Morozov's size and strength advantage. He notes that Newson is too small for bantamweight at 5'5" and expects Morozov to implement a grappling clinic. However, he expresses concern about Morozov's chin, as he has been hurt in recent fights by Halley and Paver and Douglas Silva de Andrade. Despite this, he trusts Morozov's grappling to get the job done, as Newson is not a consistent one-punch KO threat at bantamweight.

"I am going to be going with Sergey morozov here to start off the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Zane picks Morozov, noting he has more options in exchanges and can punch his way into takedowns. He thinks Newson is not comfortable in protracted exchanges and Morozov will press his wrestling advantage. He also mentions Morozov might block a kick and knock Newson out.

"He only has to throw three punches getting inside one has to land and then he can do something else that isn't trading punches"
Fight Notes

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