UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by third-round submission. He is impressed with Gane's well-rounded skills: volume striking, body kicks, leg kicks, good cardio, wrestling, and ground game. He notes Rozenstruik's power and 91% knockout rate but believes Gane will fight smart, avoid getting hit, and take the fight to the mat where he can capitalize. He mentions Gane's 86% finish rate and that he has submissions in the UFC. He acknowledges the line at -265 is wide but thinks Gane is the better fighter.

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, citing Gane's well-rounded game and diverse striking tools like front kicks, knees, and elbows. He notes Rozenstruik's devastating counter-striking, especially the leaping left hook, but believes if Rozenstruik doesn't get an early knockout, Gane can win by decision, submission, or knockout. Levi acknowledges Rozenstruik's comeback ability but thinks Gane's versatility and range control will be decisive.

Gane has the best movement in the heavyweight division, fluid and smooth, able to avoid big shots. He showed great kicks and cardio against dos Santos. Rozenstruik's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and durability should neutralize that. Gane may also use grappling, as he has submissions and takedowns. Expect a finish via ground and pound or submission in round 3 or 4.

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by TKO in the second or third round, citing his superior technical striking, footwork, and reach advantage. He compares both fighters' performances against Junior dos Santos, noting Gane dominated while Rozenstruik had a closer fight. He believes Gane's distance management and body kicks will be key, and that Rozenstruik's high guard will leave his body exposed. He also mentions Gane's ground game as an additional threat.

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by close decision, but he is hesitant. He thinks Ankalaev is the much better striker and has shown good takedown defense, but he questions the level of competition Ankalaev has faced compared to Krylov. He brings up the Paul Craig submission loss as a concern. He notes Krylov's 97% finish rate and danger on the ground, but believes Ankalaev can keep it standing and outpoint him. He says the line at -360 is too wide and recommends dog or pass.

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev, emphasizing his technical, fundamental approach and defensive skills (defends nearly 70% of strikes). He notes Krylov's exciting, loose style but believes Ankalaev can exploit that and control the fight via decision or knockout. Levi acknowledges the wide line but thinks Ankalaev has more ways to win and has learned from his submission loss to Paul Craig.

Ankalaev is a future champion at 205, with elite striking from both stances and solid wrestling. He has only been taken down twice in his UFC career and gets back up quickly. Krylov's path is volume or submission, but Ankalaev's counter-striking and defensive wrestling should nullify that. Expect a knockout in the second or third round, as Krylov's reckless style leaves openings.

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, but notes the odds are too high (over 3-to-1 favorite) and suggests Krylov is a good betting underdog. He believes Ankalaev is improving fight to fight and has the power to finish Krylov in later rounds, while Krylov may have peaked and taken more damage. He expects Ankalaev to win but warns the betting line is inflated.

Big Brady picks the underdog Montana De La Rosa to grind out a decision. He notes that Silva is extremely hittable and flat-footed, absorbing 6.74 significant strikes per minute. He believes De La Rosa can take Silva down at will due to Silva's 71% takedown defense and that De La Rosa has multiple paths to victory: outlanding on the feet or using her wrestling. He acknowledges Silva's danger off her back but notes De La Rosa has only been submitted once in 17 fights. He disagrees with the line, thinking De La Rosa has a good chance.

Daniel Levi picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her significant power and damaging shots. He acknowledges her takedown defense issues but notes improvement in the Marina Moroz fight. He believes Montana De La Rosa's nose bleeds easily and that Bueno Silva's power will be the difference, potentially leading to a decision win by landing more impactful strikes.

De La Rosa has superior wrestling and should be able to take Bueno Silva down repeatedly. Bueno Silva is dangerous off her back with submissions, but De La Rosa has only been submitted by Mackenzie Dern. De La Rosa's cardio and top control are solid, and she has shown improved striking. Expect a decision win via control and ground and pound.

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He highlights her superior submission skills, noting she has multiple armbar wins and a ninja choke in her career. He believes Montana De La Rosa has shown little improvement and will be outclassed on the ground.

Big Brady picks Jimmie Rivera to win by decision. He highlights Rivera's 92% takedown defense and speed advantage. He notes Munhoz is extremely hittable, absorbing more strikes than he lands, and that Rivera will outvolume him. He thinks Munhoz needs a finish to win, but Rivera has only been knocked out once and Munhoz has never been finished. He mentions Rivera is in his prime and has lost only to top competition. He likes the moneyline at -150 and considers a decision prop.

Daniel Levi picks Jimmie Rivera, but with hesitation. He notes Rivera is the cleaner striker and historically does well in decisions, while Munhoz has more finishing potential. Levi worries about Rivera's chin but thinks if it goes to the scorecards, Rivera edges it. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but leans Rivera by decision.

Rivera is a Muay Thai specialist with superior footwork and striking technique. Munhoz is a walking punching bag who marches forward, but Rivera's calf kicks and combinations should outclass him. Rivera's takedown defense is strong, and Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, which is unlikely given Rivera's durability. Expect a decision win for Rivera.

The MMA Guru picks Jimmie Rivera, believing he won the first fight clearly and has improved more than Munhoz since then. He notes Rivera is now in his prime while Munhoz is past his, and expects Rivera to outbox Munhoz over three rounds, winning a unanimous decision 30-27. He mentions Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, but Rivera is aware of that threat.

Big Brady picks Kevin Croom to win by submission, calling it an upset. He thinks Croom will be more aggressive, throw harder shots, and have higher volume. He notes Croom can take Caceres' back standing and take the fight to the mat, where Caceres has been submitted six times. He compares Croom favorably to Chase Hooper, who was a favorite against Caceres. He believes the line at +175 is off and that Caceres should not be a -210 favorite.

Daniel Levi picks Alex Caceres, citing his experience and level of competition. He notes Croom's win over Roosevelt Roberts was more about Roberts not being ready, and that Croom has a ugly, lunge-heavy style. Levi believes Caceres' striking edge and movement will allow him to pick Croom apart over three rounds, and that Croom's recent win is overrated.

Croom's pressure and pace will not allow Caceres to operate at his preferred kicking range. Croom has solid cardio, good volume, and a strong clinch game. Caceres struggles when pressured, and Croom's takedowns and forward movement should earn him a decision. The line is moving down, indicating value.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Caceres, believing his UFC experience against higher-level competition gives him the edge. He expects Croom to start fast and fade, allowing Caceres to take over in the later rounds for a 29-28 decision. He notes the odds are tempting for Croom but sticks with Caceres as the winner, though he acknowledges Caceres should not be such a heavy favorite.

Big Brady picks Sabina Mazo to win by decision. He highlights Mazo's striking advantage: she throws more output (7.14 significant strikes per minute) and has better accuracy and defense. He notes Davis is 36, on a three-fight skid, and has poor takedown defense (32%), but Davis rarely uses her grappling. He thinks if Davis doesn't get takedowns, she will get pieced up. He acknowledges it's women's MMA and could be close, but favors Mazo comfortably.

Daniel Levi picks Sabina Mazo, emphasizing the 13-year age gap and Mazo's youth and power. He notes Alexis Davis has not landed more than one takedown in a fight since 2014, and her striking defense is poor. Levi believes Mazo will outpoint Davis and eventually land a signature high kick for a knockout, as Davis takes too much damage and doesn't adjust.

Davis has a huge experience advantage and a pressure-heavy style that should stifle Mazo. She catches kicks well and can take the fight to the ground, where she has good top control. Mazo has been controlled by wrestlers before, and Davis's durability should allow her to weather Mazo's striking. Expect a decision win for Davis.

Big Brady picks Ronnie Lawrence to win by decision, but he is not confident. He notes Lawrence has a wrestling advantage and can get takedowns, while Cachero has poor takedown defense. However, he thinks the line at -160 is too wide and sees this as a close fight. He says he would not bet on it and considers it a low-level fight.

Daniel Levi picks Ronnie Lawrence, citing his wrestling and takedown ability, which exploits Cachero's weakness in takedown defense. He notes Cachero has been taken down and finished by higher-level opponents. Levi believes Lawrence's mix of strikes and takedowns will overwhelm Cachero, leading to a decision win.

Lawrence mixes strikes and takedowns well, keeping opponents guessing. Cachero has weak takedown defense and Lawrence should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Lawrence's movement and kicking game will keep Cachero at range. Expect a decision win for Lawrence.

The MMA Guru picks Ronnie Lawrence, citing his strong wrestling and ability to take down Cachero at will, as seen in Cachero's previous fight where Jamal Emmers easily secured takedowns. He notes Lawrence's short-notice Contender Series win showed great cardio, and with a full camp he expects even better performance. He is not tempted by Cachero's underdog odds, believing Lawrence's wrestling gives him a clear path to victory via unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by second-round knockout. He thinks Jacoby is the much faster and crisper striker with higher volume, and that leg kicks will be a big factor in the small cage. He notes Grishin is older, has low volume, and lacks wrestling despite having a potential advantage there. He says the line at -175 is not awful but he is personally passing on betting it.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, noting the difference in striking level. He believes Jacoby's kickboxing background and leg kicks will be decisive, as Grishin prefers stand-up but has been knocked out before. Levi acknowledges Grishin's experience but thinks Jacoby's power and technique will secure the win.

Jacoby's striking, especially his calf kicks, will be a major problem for Grishin, who tends to back up and accept pressure. Jacoby has shown improved confidence and efficiency. Grishin is slow and doesn't excel in any one area. Jacoby should win via TKO in the second round, as Grishin's durability is questionable.

The MMA Guru picks Maxim Grishin as an upset winner, citing Grishin's grappling advantage and ability to mix in takedowns against the kickboxer Jacoby. He notes Jacoby's time away for kickboxing may have hindered his wrestling development, and expects Grishin to wear him down with clinch work and grappling in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges Jacoby could win the first round but believes Grishin's cardio and pressure will take over. He also mentions Grishin's only recent loss was on short notice at heavyweight to Marcin Tybura, and that he has been successful in PFL.