UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, expecting his forward pressure, craziness, and size to frustrate Thiago Santos, who is a shell of his former self after knee injuries and three straight losses. He notes that Santos has massive power and could knock anyone out, but his cardio suffers and he may be gun-shy. Walker is never afraid to throw and will stay busy. Angelo likes Walker at plus 145 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,400. He also likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.

Big Brady picks Thiago Santos to win, citing his experience, better competition, and more paths to victory. He notes Santos has fought Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Rakic, while Walker's best wins are over lesser competition. Walker is very hittable (31% striking defense) and chinny, while Santos hits hard. Santos has better cardio, having gone five rounds with Jones, while Walker fades after the first round. Brady suggests a ground game path for Santos, similar to his win over Kevin Holland. He recommends a violence play rather than the moneyline.

Cody picks Thiago Santos based on superior experience and durability. He notes that Santos has slowed down and his knees are shot, but he still hits hard and can drag the fight into later rounds. He expects Santos to survive Walker's early explosiveness and then pressure him, eventually landing a finish in the second, third, or fourth round. He highlights that Santos outstruck Alexander Rakic in their fight and has better cardio than Walker, who has never gone five rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker as the underdog, citing that both fighters have declined since their surgeries—Santos after ACL surgery and Walker after shoulder injury. He notes Walker's dynamic striking and finishing ability but acknowledges his poor durability and tendency to flop when hit. Levi believes the fight is a coin flip about who lands first, but he leans Walker because of motivation concerns for the nearly 40-year-old Santos with a baby on the way. He expects a knockout either way and takes the underdog.

I think Santos is the more disciplined striker and should be able to counter Walker's wildness. Walker is explosive but hittable and has poor durability. However, I'm concerned about Santos's recent performances and knee surgeries. I like Santos inside the distance at -120 and also like the under 1.5 rounds. I'm picking Santos but not with high confidence.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Santos but with less confidence. He notes that Walker is dangerous early but has never gone five rounds and his cardio is suspect. He believes Santos's chin holds up better at 205 and that Walker's grappling is not a major concern. He does not have a bet on Santos straight up but suggests looking at live betting after the first round if Santos survives.

The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos, despite rooting for Johnny Walker. He notes Santos' check hook is his best weapon and Walker leaves himself open when rushing in. Walker has been KO'd in most of his losses by rushing in. Santos has five-round experience and still has power. He predicts Santos will catch Walker with a check hook and finish him by KO.

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, believing his grappling will be enough to take down Kevin Holland, who has shown zero takedown defense. He notes that Daukaus is a very good grappler with solid jiu-jitsu, while Holland is a sniper on his feet with good BJJ but no wrestling. Angelo thinks Daukaus will stick to a game plan, get the fight to the ground, and control from there. He likes Daukaus at plus 120 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,700. He hates the monkey knife fight line and will not touch it.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, seeing this as a good bounce-back spot. He notes Holland's losses came against elite wrestlers (Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson) who are far better than Daukaus. Daukaus has poor striking defense (39%) and is very hittable, while Holland is a black belt himself and has shown good grappling against Gerald Meerschaert. Brady thinks Holland will stuff takedowns or get back up, and on the feet it's night and day. He predicts a knockout due to Daukaus's poor striking defense.

Cody picks Daukaus as a dog, citing Holland's poor takedown defense and mental fragility. He notes that Holland has shown no ability to keep fights standing and gets taken down easily, even by mediocre wrestlers. Daukaus has good grappling and should be able to take Holland down and control him on the ground. He also mentions that Holland's long frame makes it hard for him to scramble back to his feet.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, believing he is in a different class than Kyle Daukaus. He acknowledges Holland's wrestling issues exposed by top-five opponents but thinks Daukaus is not at that level to exploit them. Levi notes Daukaus is tough and durable but expects Holland's dynamic striking and reach to be too much. He suggests the line is a discount due to Holland's recent losses and that he would be a bigger favorite otherwise.

I'm staying away from this fight. Holland has huge grappling holes, but Daukaus isn't a great wrestler either. I think the over 2.5 rounds is interesting because both guys are durable and it might be a low-output fight. I don't have a strong pick either way.

Paul leans towards Holland but dislikes the -160 price. He acknowledges Holland's advantages on the feet but is concerned about his takedown defense and mental lapses. He notes that Daukaus is not a world-class wrestler but should be able to get the fight to the ground. He ultimately does not make a firm pick but seems to favor the dog.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing his reach advantage and Daukaus' poor stand-up. He notes Daukaus was dominated by Phil Hawes and struggled to take him down. Holland has been training wrestling and should stuff takedowns. He predicts Holland will get a second-round KO.

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Angelo picks Misha Cirkunov, believing he will eventually get a takedown and dominate on the ground. He notes that Cirkunov is a very good grappler with big shots and well-timed takedowns, while Jotko is a fast, athletic striker with 87% takedown defense. However, Angelo thinks Jotko's takedown defense will be tested and that once on the mat, Cirkunov has a huge advantage. He likes Cirkunov in DraftKings at $7,600 and may place a moneyline bet. He also likes the more more monkey knife fight pick.

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov to win by first-round submission, liking him as a dog. He notes Cirkunov is coming down from light heavyweight and will be the bigger fighter, with dangerous submission skills. Jotko has only one KO win in eight UFC years and has been submitted before. Cirkunov has fought much better competition (Glover Teixeira, Johnny Walker, Ryan Spann) and though he gets knocked out when he loses, Jotko is not a power puncher. Brady thinks one takedown is all it takes for Cirkunov to finish Jotko on the ground.

Cody picks Jotko, citing Cirkunov's poor chin and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Cirkunov is dropping to 185 for the first time, which could be a difficult weight cut. Jotko has good cardio and volume, and if he survives the first round, he should take over. He also mentions that Jotko's grappling has improved and that Cirkunov is a one-round fighter.

Daniel Levi picks Krzysztof Jotko, citing Cirkunov's tendency to fold when adversity hits, while Jotko is durable and has never quit. He notes Cirkunov's dangerous submissions but questions his chin and heart, especially at middleweight after cutting weight. Levi thinks Jotko can outpoint him or possibly knock him out, but he is not fully confident due to Cirkunov's early burst potential.

I think Cirkunov is the better fighter everywhere. Jotko is a point fighter with no finishing ability, while Cirkunov has excellent jiu-jitsu and decent striking. The only concern is Cirkunov's chin at 185, but Jotko doesn't hit hard. I like Cirkunov by submission at +300 or by decision at +550.

Paul leans towards Cirkunov as a dog, but wants to see the weigh-ins first. He notes that Jotko is not a power puncher and that Cirkunov has good grappling and strength. However, he is concerned about Cirkunov's chin and cardio. He suggests that if Cirkunov makes weight comfortably, he could be a live dog.

The MMA Guru picks Krzysztof Jotko, citing Misha Cirkunov's poor decision-making and chin issues after moving down 20 pounds. Jotko has good grappling defense and stand-up. He predicts Jotko will stuff takedowns and get a second-round TKO against the cage.

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, expecting him to dominate a short-notice UFC debutant. He notes that Hernandez has legitimate power, speed, and wrestling, and has fought higher competition. Breeden is a high-volume striker but lacks the power and wrestling of Hernandez. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide due to Hernandez's inconsistency, but he should win and dominate. He likes the more more monkey knife fight pick and may consider Hernandez in DraftKings despite the $9,400 price tag.

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout, despite not being high on Hernandez generally. He notes Breeden is stepping in on short notice and is not UFC caliber yet, being 32 but still green. Hernandez has fought much better competition (Moises, Dober, Cerrone) and has impressive knockouts over Chris Gruetzemacher and Vanilto Antunes. Brady expects Hernandez to dominate and finish Breeden inside the distance, likely in the first round.

Cody picks Hernandez but with low confidence due to Hernandez's poor fight IQ and cardio. He notes that Hernandez should win on paper but has a history of underperforming. Breeden is tough and has good cardio, which could be a problem if Hernandez doesn't finish early. He expects Hernandez to win but wouldn't start a parlay with him.

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez, stating he is much more battle-tested than the newcomer Breeden. He criticizes Hernandez's tendency to fade when fights get tough but believes Breeden is not at that level. Levi notes Breeden is durable (only one KO loss) but expects Hernandez to win, though he is unsure of the method—could be a first-round finish or a grind. He does not recommend laying -600 but is confident in the win.

I think this is a mismatch. Breeden is a regional-level fighter who is outclassed athletically and technically. Hernandez is faster, hits harder, and is more well-rounded. I like Hernandez by KO at +150 because he should be able to finish Breeden early. The moneyline is too expensive for me to lay, but the KO prop has value.

Paul also picks Hernandez but is wary of his mental fragility and poor cardio. He notes that Breeden is dangerous in the third round and that Hernandez has a history of fading. He thinks Hernandez should win but wouldn't bet him at -525.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez by first-round KO, noting that Mike Breeden has been KO'd before and has faced weak competition. Hernandez has KO power, as seen against Chris Gruetzemacher. He believes Hernandez will thrive with no pressure and get a signature win.

Angelo picks Joe Solecki, but with hesitation. He notes that Solecki is a very good grappler with clean boxing, while Jared Gordon is a wrestler who may be intimidated to take the fight to the ground due to Solecki's BJJ. However, Gordon has fought higher competition and has better offensive wrestling. Angelo thinks Solecki's path is via submission, but he wouldn't be shocked if Gordon wins by decision. He likes the less less monkey knife fight pick and may bet on Solecki inside the distance with decision no action.

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon to win by decision, siding with the veteran despite liking Joe Solecki's upside. He notes Gordon has never been outgrappled in the UFC and has good takedown defense and grappling himself (brown belt). Solecki is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, but his wins are over lesser competition (Jim Miller, Austin Hubbard, Matt Wyman). Brady thinks Gordon has the striking advantage and more experience, and that Solecki won't find takedowns as easy as against previous opponents. He calls it a tough fight but takes the dog.

Cody picks Gordon as a dog, citing his improved speed and cardio after switching to Sanford MMA. He notes that Gordon has a history of drug abuse but has reinvented himself and looked much better in his last fight. He believes Gordon's pressure, cardio, and grappling will be too much for Solecki, who struggled against Jim Miller's wrestling.

Daniel Levi picks Jared Gordon as an underdog, citing Gordon's heavy top pressure (described as 'Khabib-level' by training partners) and better stand-up technique. He is concerned about Solecki's guard-pulling in his last fight, which could be disastrous against Gordon's top game. Levi acknowledges Solecki's improving hands and submission threat but thinks Gordon's experience and pressure will earn him a split decision.

I have huge conviction on Gordon here. Solecki has been fed favorable matchups against wrestlers with poor jiu-jitsu defense, but Gordon is a different beast. Gordon is a better wrestler, has excellent jiu-jitsu defense, and will push a relentless pace. On the feet, Gordon has a clear edge. I bet 4 units on Gordon moneyline and like Gordon by decision at +250.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gordon as a dog. He notes that Gordon has a significant size advantage and better cardio. He is concerned about Gordon's chin but believes his pressure and grappling will be key. He plans to bet on Gordon after the show.

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, noting that Jared Gordon's size advantage will be negated at lightweight. He also questions Gordon's chin, as he has been KO'd multiple times. Solecki has good grappling, as shown in his win over Jim Miller. He predicts Solecki will win by unanimous decision 29-28.

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

Angelo picks Karol Rosa, citing her high volume striking and upward trajectory against a declining Bethe Correia. He notes that Rosa is a decision fighter with solid takedown defense, while Correia has fought top competition but is older and beat up. Angelo thinks the most likely outcome is Rosa touching up Correia over three rounds, but he acknowledges that Correia could make it dirty and uncomfortable. He believes the odds are too wide and that Rosa should be around -150, not -350. He likes the less less monkey knife fight pick.

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by decision, citing her youth (26 vs 38), volume striking (7.73 significant strikes per minute), and black belt BJJ. He notes Correia has good takedown defense (84%) but gets outlanded in every fight and hasn't outlanded anyone since 2014. Rosa is hittable (48% striking defense) but should outvolume Correia to a one-sided decision. Brady expects this to be Correia's retirement fight.

Cody picks Rosa, calling her a pick of the week. He notes that Rosa is young, has high volume, good grappling, and a solid chin. Correia is 38 and has not looked good in years. He expects Rosa to win by decision, as she is not a big finisher. He suggests betting Rosa by decision or including her in parlays.

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa confidently, citing her incredible volume (over 100 significant strikes in each UFC fight) and youth. He notes the matchup heavily favors Rosa, who is faster, fresher, and not in retirement mode like Correia. His only concern is a potential 'respect factor' between Brazilians, but he expects Rosa to dominate via decision or even knockout. He does not recommend betting at -600 due to lack of value.

I think Rosa is levels above Correia. Rosa has great volume and technique, while Correia is a brawler with poor defense. Rosa should outland her easily and win a decision. I like Rosa by decision at -170, but the moneyline is fine too. I don't see Correia having a path to victory.

Paul also picks Rosa, noting that she is well-rounded with good cardio and chin. He believes Correia is past her prime and that Rosa will have her way everywhere. He expects a decision win for Rosa.

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa, noting her youth, reach advantage, and hunger compared to Bethe Correia, who is retiring. He believes Rosa will win by decision, as she has good wins over Joselyne Edwards and Lara Procopio. He also questions Correia's mindset as a retirement fight.

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey, expecting him to use his grappling roots to set up takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Mullarkey has improved his striking training with Volkanovski and has a solid volume game, but Devonte Smith has 100% takedown defense in the UFC. Angelo is not in love with the pick and thinks Smith could land a big shot as Mullarkey commits. He likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.

Big Brady picks Devonte Smith to win by knockout, confident in Smith's massive striking advantage. He notes Smith lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy and positive strike differential, while Mullarkey absorbs 4.65 strikes per minute with poor 43% striking defense. Smith hits hard and Mullarkey is very hittable. The key question is takedown defense: Smith has 100% TD defense in UFC but only defended 3 takedowns. Brady believes Smith will stuff takedowns and knock out Mullarkey.

Cody picks Mullarkey as a dog, noting that Smith is a one-round fighter with questionable durability. Mullarkey has good cardio, pressure, and grappling. He expects Mullarkey to survive the first round and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Mullarkey trains with Alexander Volkanovski and has a strong team.

Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith, acknowledging his higher ceiling, athleticism, and power, but worries about his tendency to underperform. He notes Smith showed improvements in his ground game in his last fight. Mullarkey is a tough, gritty journeyman who will push the pace and test Smith's durability. Levi thinks Smith can win if he stays composed and doesn't gas, but he is concerned about Mullarkey making it a dirty fight.

I initially leaned Smith but after rewatching, I think Mullarkey's durability and pressure will be too much. Smith has a speed and power advantage but is fragile and has questionable cardio. Mullarkey will push forward, land takedowns, and make it ugly. I like Mullarkey by decision at +380 or inside the distance at +280.

Paul leans towards Mullarkey but wants to see the weigh-ins. He notes that Smith is explosive but fades quickly. Mullarkey is durable and has good cardio. He thinks Mullarkey could be a live dog if he can weather the early storm.

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey as an upset, citing Devonte Smith's chin problem. He notes that Smith was KO'd by a weak check hook from Kamal Worthy and has been wobbled in other fights. Mullarkey has KO power and trains with Alexander Volkanovski. He predicts Mullarkey will catch Smith with a lead hook and finish him in the first round.

Angelo picks Gaetano Pirrello as the underdog, believing his world-class Muay Thai striking will be too much for Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes that Andrade is dropping down to 135, which may affect his chin, and that he rarely uses his wrestling despite having a clear path to victory via takedowns. Angelo thinks Pirrello will get to showcase his striking and that Andrade will be on the wrong end of it. He considers a moneyline bet at plus money and may include Pirrello in his knockout pool.

Big Brady picks Douglas Silva de Andrade to win by knockout, but is not overly confident due to Andrade's age (36) and style. He notes Andrade is a striker who will brawl, which plays into Pirrello's hands as Pirrello is dangerous and has 14 of 17 wins inside the distance. However, Andrade has fought much better competition (Rob Font, Marlon Vera, etc.) while Pirrello looked poor in his UFC debut against Ricky Simone. Brady thinks the line is wide and prefers a violence play.

Cody picks Andrade based on experience and durability. He notes that Andrade has fought tough competition and has a good chin. Pirrello is a striker who has not faced the same level of opposition. He expects Andrade to pressure and take over as Pirrello fades. However, he is not highly confident.

Daniel Levi picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his experience and ability to show up in fights. He notes Pirrello has issues with takedown defense and chin, but Silva is 36 at bantamweight and could be caught. Levi thinks at their best, Silva wins, but he does not recommend laying -240 due to the risk. He personally passes on betting but picks Silva to get it done.

I think Pirrello's cardio fades as the fight goes on, and Andrade is the better fighter everywhere. Andrade has good power and grappling, and Pirrello's defensive grappling is terrible. I like Andrade by decision at +175, but the moneyline is fine too. I'm not worried about Pirrello's early danger because Andrade can weather it.

Paul also picks Andrade but is not confident. He notes that Andrade has not fought frequently and has a limited grappling game. Pirrello is a dangerous striker early. He thinks Andrade's experience will be the difference but is wary of the price.

The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, noting that Gaetano Pirrello looked fundamentally unprepared in his debut against Ricky Simone. He believes Silva de Andrade is a big bantamweight with good wins, including over Marlon Vera. He expects a scrappy fight but predicts Silva de Andrade will win by unanimous decision 29-28.

Angelo picks Shanna Young, expecting her to use her traditional wrestling to take down Stephanie Egger, following the Tracy Cortez game plan. He notes that Shanna is a solid boxer with decent power and good wrestling, but has gaps in BJJ. He acknowledges that Stephanie is capable of keeping opponents at bay and grinding against the cage, which could lead to a boring win for Egger. Angelo is not confident and says he has no bets on this fight, calling it a sloppy matchup.

Big Brady picks Stephanie Egger to win by decision, but is hesitant because Egger looked awful in her UFC debut against Tracy Cortez despite looking good against lower competition. He notes Egger is a judo black belt with solid grappling, while Shanna Young has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Sarah Alpar. He would have liked Egger at plus money but passes at minus 130.

Cody picks Egger but is conflicted. He notes that Egger has good judo and grappling but poor striking. Young has not trained properly and just had a baby, but Egger's striking is abysmal. He expects Egger to get the fight to the ground and win by decision or submission. He suggests this fight is a pass.

Daniel Levi picks Stephanie Egger, viewing it as a striker vs grappler matchup. He thinks Young has the advantage on the feet, but Egger's judo and ground game should be decisive if she can get the fight to the mat. He notes Young was submitted by Sarah Alpar, indicating poor grappling. Levi is not highly confident because the fight is low-level by UFC standards, but he expects Egger to grind out a win or get a submission.

I think Egger's grappling is the key here. Young got outmuscled by Macy Chiasson and has shown poor defensive grappling. Egger is a decorated judoka with good jiu-jitsu, and she should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. I like Egger by submission at +500 or +600 as a prop, but the moneyline at -130 is also fine.

Paul leans towards Egger but is not confident. He mentions that Young has red flags (not training properly, just had a baby) but Egger's striking is poor. He thinks Egger's grappling could be the difference but is unsure.

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Egger as an upset, citing her massive grappling advantage over Shanna Young. He notes that Young has shown issues dealing with grapplers, as seen in losses to Macy Chiasson and Sarah Alpar. Egger has a judo background and a reach advantage, which should help her on the feet. He predicts Egger will push Young against the cage, take her down, and win a unanimous decision by controlling the ground.

Angelo picks Alejandro Pérez despite the long layoff, citing his fresher chin, better striking, and wrestling backup plan. He notes that Pérez has good boxing and speed, though not insane power, and that his wrestling background is used defensively to keep the fight standing. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters have been out for years and are coming off two losses, making this a high-variance matchup. He explicitly says he is not betting on Pérez due to too many unknowns, but he did bet on the fight not going the distance at -115.

Big Brady picks Alejandro Pérez to win by finish, citing Eduardo's age (43 years old) and long layoff (3 years 3 months). He notes Eduardo is dangerous early but fades, and Pérez is over 10 years younger. He expects Pérez to survive the first round and then take over for a finish, possibly by submission given Eduardo has been submitted nine times.

Cody picks Perez but is not confident. He notes that Eduardo is 41 and hasn't fought in three years, but Perez has chin issues and poor takedown accuracy. He expects Perez to win by decision or inside the distance, but acknowledges Eduardo's early power. He suggests betting Perez inside the distance or the under.

Daniel Levi picks Alejandro Pérez, citing Eduardo's age (42 at bantamweight) and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Pérez is younger, fresher, and coming off a long layoff after a KO loss, which may have allowed him to heal. Levi warns that Eduardo is dangerous early with his Muay Thai power, but if Pérez survives the first five minutes, he can win a decision or get a late finish. He has a soft spot for Eduardo but picks Pérez.

I think Pérez's durability will carry him through Eduardo's early aggression. Eduardo tends to fade as the fight goes on, and Pérez should take over later. I'm not worried about Eduardo's power compared to Song Yadong, who finished Pérez. I like Pérez by decision at +250 as a prop, but the moneyline is fine too.

Paul picks Perez, noting that Eduardo is 41 and has been out for three years. He believes Perez's youth and activity will be key. He expects Perez to win by decision or late stoppage. He also mentions that Eduardo has poor fight IQ, as seen in his submission loss to Nathaniel Wood.

The MMA Guru picks Alejandro Pérez, noting that Johnny Eduardo is 43 years old and returning after three years off. He believes Pérez is in his athletic prime and has shown good grappling against Cody Stamann. Eduardo's only chance is a first-round KO, but Pérez has only been KO'd once. He predicts Pérez will wear down Eduardo and get a late second-round TKO.