UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win, citing his superior boxing, pressure in the smaller cage, and ability to cut off angles. He notes that Hooker absorbs a lot of strikes (5.13 per minute) and has taken damage in recent fights, which could lead to a late finish. He also mentions that Hooker's competition has been a step below Poirier's, and that Poirier's durability and cardio should carry him through. He predicts a fourth-round knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win, citing Poirier's superior boxing, cardio, and output, especially in later rounds. He notes that Poirier's defense has improved and he no longer makes lunging mistakes. Levi believes Poirier's mindset is focused and he will not let Hooker off the hook, predicting a finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hooker's durability and sneaky tools like high knees but thinks Poirier's firepower and experience will prevail.

The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker to beat Dustin Poirier, arguing that Hooker's reach advantage and calf kicks will be key. He believes Hooker will land multiple calf kicks early, affecting Poirier's movement, and that Poirier loads up too much when hurt, leaving his chin exposed. He predicts a TKO finish via knee up the middle in the late first or early second round, citing Hooker's activity and Poirier's potential lack of hunger after the Khabib loss.

Big Brady picks Mike Perry despite concerns about Perry's personal life (girlfriend cornering him). He believes Perry's wrestling and strength will neutralize Gall's takedown attempts, and that Perry's superior competition and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He notes that Gall's only path is getting Perry down, which he thinks is unlikely.

Daniel Levi picks Mickey Gall for the upset, citing Perry's chaotic personal life, lack of coaching, and stagnation in skill development. He notes Gall's improvement in his last fight against Salim Touahri, showing better fight IQ and cardio. Levi believes Gall's jiu-jitsu black belt and submission threat could catch Perry if he overextends. He acknowledges Perry's strength and clinch game but thinks the line is too wide and Gall has a chance to submit him.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Mike Perry to win by KO, stating that Mickey Gall's only chance is to get the fight to the ground, but Perry's takedown defense is strong. He predicts Perry will break Gall in the clinch and land an elbow or shot for a first-round TKO. He dismisses concerns about Perry's girlfriend being in his corner, believing his gym will prevent that from being a distraction.

Big Brady picks Maurice Greene, citing the size advantage (height and reach) and better cardio. He thinks Villante's power won't translate up a weight class, and that Greene will likely knock him out in the first round. He compares it to OSP vs Ben Rothwell. He advises against parlaying Greene due to trust issues but thinks a straight bet is fine.

Daniel Levi picks Maurice Greene, noting Greene's physical advantages (6'7", long reach) and improvement in using range. He mentions Greene's move to Jackson Wink for better training partners and elevation, while Villante is training in a garage with closed gyms. Levi thinks Villante is on the decline, with poor cardio and decision-making, and expects Greene to win by knockout or lopsided decision. He cautions that Villante has power early but Greene should weather it.

The MMA Guru picks Gian Villante as a live dog, believing he will get the jump on Maurice Greene. He notes Villante's wrestling fundamentals and training with Weidman's team, predicting a takedown and rear-naked choke submission in the first or second round. He criticizes Greene's recent losses and questionable activity outside the cage, suggesting Greene might not even show up due to COVID-19 concerns.

Big Brady picks Brendan Allen, though he acknowledges the line might be a bit wide due to Daukaus' dangerous BJJ off his back. He thinks Allen is the better striker and stronger fighter, and if he fights smart on the feet or controls top position, he can finish. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound KO. He notes Daukaus is undefeated and dangerous but favors Allen's upside.

Daniel Levi picks Brendan Allen, emphasizing Allen's experience and recent dominant performances. He notes that Allen has overcome past setbacks and is now confident, while Daukaus is still green and has shown vulnerabilities in grappling exchanges. Levi thinks Allen's top pressure and submission threat will be too much, predicting a finish. He acknowledges Daukaus's size and southpaw stance could cause trouble but believes Allen's experience will prevail.

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen, acknowledging Kyle Daukaus is dangerous but noting Daukaus took the fight on short notice and may not have full training. He highlights Allen's wins over Tom Breese and Kevin Holland, and predicts Allen will pick Daukaus apart and finish via ground-and-pound late in the first round. He believes Daukaus is not the type to go for an early KO, which hurts his chances on short notice.

Big Brady picks Takashi Sato, despite the narrative that Witt (Brahimaj) has a submission-heavy record. He thinks Sato's takedown defense and cardio will be key, and that Witt will gas after the first round. He predicts Sato will weather the early storm and get a knockout in the second round. He notes that Witt's UFC debut and poor cardio are concerns.

Daniel Levi leans with Takashi Sato, citing his full camp preparation and UFC experience. He notes Sato's karate style, judo base for takedown defense, and counter-striking power. However, he acknowledges Sato's questionable chin and that Witt is taking the fight on short notice but has a wrestling background. Levi thinks Sato's discipline and preparation give him the edge, but warns that short-notice fighters have pulled off upsets before.

The MMA Guru picks Takashi Sato, citing his experience and recent UFC wins, while dismissing Jason Witt's resume as not UFC-level. He predicts Sato will dominate and win by submission in the second or third round, as Witt may come out aggressive but fade. He initially considered a decision but changed to submission, noting Sato is not a finisher but expects the experience gap to show.

Big Brady picks Sean Woodson, citing his boxing background, reach advantage, and high volume striking. He thinks Erosa gets hit too much and will be overwhelmed by Woodson's length and output. He predicts a late third-round finish or a convincing decision. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Daniel Levi picks Sean Woodson, stating that Julian Erosa gets hit too much, fights with his hands down, and gasses out. He notes Woodson's height and reach advantage (though Erosa is also tall) and his cleaner, more precise striking. Levi thinks Woodson will win by TKO, possibly early, but acknowledges Woodson's weakness in the clinch and wrestling, which Erosa may not exploit. He believes the wide line is justified.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Woodson, praising his reach advantage and performance in his UFC debut. He criticizes Kyle Nelson's only UFC win being over Marco Polo Reyes, who has a poor record, and notes Nelson lost to Matt Sayles. He predicts Woodson will pick Nelson apart and win a unanimous 30-27 decision.

Big Brady picks Luis Peña confidently, stating he is the better fighter in every category except power. He notes Peña's durability, striking, and submission game, and thinks Peña can take Worthy down and submit him. He believes the line should be wider and sees value at -270. He predicts a first-round submission.

Daniel Levi leans with Luis Peña, citing Peña's length, volume striking, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Peña has more answers stylistically, though he still has questions about Worthy's grappling and chin. Levi thinks Peña's training at ATT and wider array of techniques will lead to a close decision win. He acknowledges Worthy's power and experience but believes Peña's volume and durability will be the difference.

The MMA Guru picks Luis Peña, believing he will enforce his game plan and not stand and trade with Khama Worthy. He notes Peña's wins over Steve Garcia Jr., Matt Wiman, and Steven Peterson, and predicts Peña will take the back and dominate for a 30-27 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Worthy as a live dog but is not willing to bet on him, though he hints at a small parlay hedge.

Big Brady picks Tanner Boser as an underdog, citing Lins' poor UFC debut against Arlovski where he looked starstruck and threw little. He likes Boser's leg kicks and reach advantage, and thinks Lins will struggle to get inside. He predicts a decision win for Boser, noting that if anyone finishes, it's likely Boser.

Daniel Levi picks Philipe Lins, arguing that people are overrating Tanner Boser and misconstruing Lins's loss to Arlovski. He notes that Arlovski is a tough test for debutants and that Lins has faster hands and more power. Levi thinks Lins will stand in the pocket, land harder shots, and either knock Boser out or win a decision. He criticizes Boser's single-shot style and lack of aggression, predicting Lins will correct his previous low-volume performance.

The MMA Guru picks Philipe Lins in a 50/50 fight, citing Lins' better wins and natural advantages like speed and reach. He acknowledges Lins' awkward decision loss to Andrei Arlovski but respects his PFL season. He notes both fighters are equal in skill, but Lins' experience against better competition gives him the edge.

Big Brady picks Kay Hansen after watching tape, noting that Frey was unimpressive and has been knocked out twice and dominated on the ground. He likes Hansen's takedown-heavy style and thinks she can get Frey down and possibly submit her or win by ground-and-pound. He is concerned about Hansen's age (20) but still favors her.

Daniel Levi picks Kay Hansen, citing the stylistic matchup of striker vs grappler. He notes that Jinh Yu Frey struggled to get up from bottom against atomweights, so moving up a weight class may not help. Levi believes Hansen will mix in takedowns and control the fight on the ground, winning by decision. He also mentions that Frey lost to Jodie Esquibel, which is a negative indicator.

The MMA Guru picks Jinh Yu Frey, admitting he doesn't know much about the fighters but thinks Frey is better and has faced better competition. He notes Frey's experience as a champion in Invicta. He is not confident and calls the fight uninteresting.

Big Brady picks Youssef Zalal by decision, citing his good BJJ, top control, and smart fight IQ. He thinks Zalal can keep the fight on the feet or control on top, and that Griffin is dangerous but often loses until he gets a submission. He is confident Zalal can avoid submissions and win a comfortable decision. He notes that if Zalal goes to underdog, he'd bet him.

Daniel Levi picks Jordan Griffin, citing his experience and ability to capitalize on Zalal's defensive flaws. He notes that Zalal fights with his hands down and Griffin's pressure could exploit that. Levi acknowledges Zalal's footwork and well-rounded skills but thinks Griffin's veteran savvy and submission threat will be key. He expects a close decision, possibly a back-and-forth fight, but leans Griffin due to his experience edge.

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Griffin, praising his grappling and submission skills. He notes Griffin's win over TJ Brown and believes he will not stand with Zalal, instead working takedowns and securing a submission in the second round. He questions Zalal's competition level.