Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov

June 26, 2021 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Ciryl Gane

Ciryl Gane W

13-2
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Heavyweight Completed

Ciryl Gane

Moneyline
BetRivers -155
KO/TKO
BetWay +333
Submission
BetRivers +750
Decision
BetWay +200

Alexander Volkov

Moneyline
Caesars +140
KO/TKO
BetRivers +325
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetRivers +375
Fighter Stats

Ciryl Gane

Age36
Height6' 4"
Reach81.0"
Weight245 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alexander Volkov

Age37
Height6' 7"
Reach80.0"
Weight250 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ciryl Gane

5.29SLpM
61.0%Str. Acc.
2.33SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.68TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alexander Volkov

4.78SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.57TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, citing his MMA experience, length, and ability to fight at range. He believes Volkov's volume and tools will counteract Gane's foot movement. He notes that Gane's last fight against Rozenstruik was boring and that Volkov will not let Gane get away with that style. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Volkov.

"i think volkov wins this fight i think his mma experience his length and and i think technically they're pretty much the same size so when i say length it's the way he fights at length i think …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision, citing his massive experience advantage (41 fights vs 8) and underrated power (67% KO rate). He notes Volkov's only UFC KO loss was to Derrick Lewis, and he has good cardio and takedown defense. He thinks the smaller cage favors Volkov's pressure, and Gane's toughest test will be too much. He acknowledges Gane is the real deal but slightly overhyped.

by decision, surprised by the odds
"i'm ultimately going to side with the experience of volkov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's leg kicks as a game-changer. He notes Gane landed 29 of 32 leg kicks against Junior dos Santos and 46 of 61 against Rozenstruik, which will slow Volkov and set up the jab. He also highlights Gane's reach advantage, five-round cardio, solid takedown defense, and the smaller Apex cage favoring Gane's pressure. He acknowledges Volkov's career-best run but points out Volkov's opponents (Overeem, Walt Harris, Blaydes) were not all elite, and Volkov is hittable and stands upright. Cody thinks the -135 opener was a better price but still sees Gane winning about 65% of the time.

"i'm leaning towards gone here i haven't made a bet on it whatsoever i think it's probably close to around right to be perfectly honest i think he wins about 65 percent of the time"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Jacob picks Ciryl Gane, defending Gane's last performance against Rozenstruik as the right game plan. He believes Gane will use grappling and takedowns to mix things up, and that Gane's athleticism and fight IQ are off the charts. Jacob thinks Gane is the next-level talent and will dominate. He has Gane in his lineup at 8700.

"i think cereal comes in and uses grappling and gets some takedowns mixes those ends i think he makes it dirty i think his fight iq is off the charts"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane's speed, footwork, and movement will be the deciding factors. He can get in and out to land big shots against Volkov, and his discipline allows him to fight any game plan. Gane's takedown threat will mix things up, and he should outpoint Volkov over 25 minutes. Volkov is the better technical striker but won't be able to hit what he can't see. Gane's performance against Rozenstruik showed he can play it safe against heavy hitters, and he'll do the same here.

Gane by decision is around +200 to +250; fight goes to decision minus 110; over 4.5 rounds
"I think his speed is going to be the main reason as to why he wins this fight... I do see this fight going the full 25 minutes I do think we see gun take home the decision …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Ciryl Gane, agreeing with Cody. He notes Gane's speed, jab, and ability to double up opponents in strikes. He mentions Gane's underrated power and that he's a tactician, not a brawler. Paul also points out Volkov's takedown defense issues and that Gane's leg kicks will neutralize Volkov's lead leg. He thinks the -165 line is still acceptable but prefers the opener at -135.

"you want to get it on the opener at -135 ghania because it is a close fight now that it's at -165 doesn't look as appealing but i think it's still the right call"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by unanimous decision (50-45), emphasizing his superior footwork, reach advantage, and leg kicks. He argues that Volkov struggles against mobile opponents and that Gane's movement will neutralize Volkov's stalking style. He expects Gane to chop at Volkov's legs and outpoint him over five rounds, comparing his approach to Leon Edwards.

unanimous decision, 50-45
"i'm gonna go with cyril ghana over alexander volkov"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tanner Boser

Tanner Boser W

22-11-1
KO (punches) R2 2:31
Fight 2 VS Heavyweight Completed

Tanner Boser

Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
BetMGM +260
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
BetRivers +175

Ovince Saint Preux

Moneyline
FanDuel +300
KO/TKO
BetRivers +750
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
BetMGM +360
Fighter Stats

Tanner Boser

Age34
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ovince Saint Preux

Age43
Height6' 3"
Reach80.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Tanner Boser

4.7SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.75SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ovince Saint Preux

3.03SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
3.33SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.09TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux, hoping that Boser's forward pressure will bring out volume in OSP. He notes OSP has more ways to win and hits hard, but his issue is low output. Angelo has a moneyline bet on OSP at plus odds. He likes more/more on the strike line.

"i think tanner boser comes in here brings the pressure puts it on oven saint prue but i'm hoping that that forward pressure and sort of the weirdness in some of his style brings out the volume in …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Big Brady picks Tanner Boser to win by decision, citing his superior striking output (4.21 sig strikes/min) and defense (63%), while OSP has low volume and negative strike differential. He notes OSP's reach advantage but thinks Boser's speed and youth will be key. He worries about judges after Boser's recent close losses but believes Boser should win if he out-lands OSP. He is not confident betting Boser due to judging.

by decision, not confident betting due to judges
"i'm gonna take bose to win by decision i think he's gonna out point osp"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Cody picks Tanner Boser but with low confidence. He notes Boser has lost his last two as a favorite, but those were questionable decisions. He argues Boser has speed and size advantages, and OSP is past his prime, missing weight recently, and looked lethargic. He thinks Boser can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. However, he warns against heavy exposure due to Boser's recent losses and OSP's veteran savvy.

"i gotta go with bozer but i i want to say i've learned my lesson on those last two losses so i don't want too much exposure on him"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Jacob says he has no idea who will win this fight but hopes OSP wins. He picks OSP with heart rather than logic. He would stay away from both guys in DraftKings.

"i have no idea who's gonna win this fight i think it's gonna be a ton of fun i hope uh osp wins you know i like osp nothing against tanner bozer but i think this is gonna …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Boser's leg kick is the main ingredient in his wins, and he should establish it against Saint Preux. OSP's cardio issues will surface after the first round, allowing Boser to take over with bigger strikes. Boser will shuck off desperation takedowns and outstrike OSP over 15 minutes. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Boser. OSP's submission threat is there but his top control and wrestling aren't good enough to keep Boser down.

Boser by decision plus 175; fight goes to decision plus 110
"I think bozo will start to take over with you know starting off with that leg kick... I do expect him to go out there and outstrike saint prue over 15 minutes and take home a unanimous decision …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Paul leans toward Tanner Boser, citing speed advantage and OSP's poor performance at heavyweight. He notes OSP missed weight and is 37, with his best days behind him. However, he is not confident because Boser didn't look great against Latifi and has lost two straight as a favorite. He thinks OSP's path is takedowns, but Boser's takedown defense should hold.

"i would lean towards tanner bozer here but he didn't look great against elir letifi so it's not a spot that i really love"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser by first-round KO, citing OSP's hesitancy and declining chin. He notes Boser's anger from his loss to Ilir Latifi and believes he will come out aggressive. He criticizes OSP's grappling and aging, predicting Boser will land combination punches against the cage and finish him early.

first round KO
"i'm going with tanabosa by ko"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

TI

Timur Valiev W

Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Bantamweight Completed

Timur Valiev

Moneyline
FanDuel +225
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetMGM +1500
Decision
BetMGM +350

Raoni Barcelos

Moneyline
Caesars -220
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetWay +130
Fighter Stats

Timur Valiev

Age36
Height5' 6"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Raoni Barcelos

Age39
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Timur Valiev

5.19SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.33SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
1.73TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Raoni Barcelos

4.92SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.4SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
2.22TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Timur Valiev

Angelo picks Timur Valiev, calling him the best underdog on the card. He believes the line is too wide and that Valiev is very good. He has a moneyline bet and a prop bet on Valiev. He notes that Valiev will definitely win a round, so the +3.5 bet is a good play.

moneyline at +180, +3.5 round handicap
"i think teamer valley have i don't know why uh i genuinely don't know why he's this big of an underdog in this fight i mean he's very very good"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady picks Raoni Barcelos to win by decision, calling him the real deal with no holes in his game except maybe cardio. He notes Barcelos's excellent striking defense (67%), positive strike differential, and strong wrestling/ground game. He thinks Barcelos will mix in takedowns and control the fight, while Valiev is a good striker but has been taken down before. He expects a high-level fight but Barcelos to win the first two rounds and get a decision.

by decision
"i'm going to be taking honey barcelos to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Cody is a big fan of Barcelos, calling him a 'created character' with elite striking, wrestling, BJJ, cardio, and chin. He criticizes the UFC for not giving Barcelos ranked opponents. He acknowledges Valiev's early pressure and unorthodox strikes but believes Barcelos's durability, cardio, and ring IQ will allow him to take over after the first round. He suggests live betting after the first round if Valiev looks competitive.

"i'm gonna go with roundy but i'll get his balls out of my mouth real quick and talk about valley of because valia's not a walk through opponent"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Timur Valiev

Jacob picks Timur Valiev, stating he was going to pick the underdog regardless because he thinks it's an even matchup. He notes Barcelos' grappling ability but believes Valiev's striking is good enough to win. Jacob has Valiev in his lineup.

"i was going to pick whatever the underdog was so it just happens to be uh timor valley if so i i'm going with him and i put him in my lineup but i love barcelo's abilities he's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Barcelos is a notch ahead in striking, especially with his Muay Thai. He throws great combinations ending with leg kicks, while Valiev is more explosive in bursts. Barcelos' volume and impactful shots will outwork Valiev's wild spinning attacks. Both have good grappling, so the fight stays standing, and Barcelos' style is more efficient. The line is too wide but Barcelos still wins.

Barcelos by decision
"I think barcelos is just a notch ahead especially in the striking realm with his muay thai... I do like marcelo's to win this fight I'd like him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Barcelos. He notes Barcelos's well-rounded skills and that Valiev fades after the first round. He thinks Barcelos's durability and pace will be too much for Valiev, who has lost as a big favorite before. Paul also mentions that Barcelos has been matched tough but always finds a way.

"i'm with you as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos by close unanimous decision (29-28), citing his experience and leg kicks reminiscent of Jose Aldo. He notes Valiev's hesitancy after his no-contest with Trevin Jones and believes Barcelos will grind out a win by landing more damaging blows. He expects a razor-close scrap but favors Barcelos' proven track record.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna go with haoni barcelos getting this one done by unanimous decision 29-28"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 4 VS Featherweight Completed

Andre Fili

Moneyline
BetMGM -225
KO/TKO
BetMGM +210
Submission
BetMGM +1100
Decision
BetWay +200

Daniel Pineda

Moneyline
FanDuel +1040
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetMGM +450
Fighter Stats

Andre Fili

Age35
Height5' 11"
Reach74.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Daniel Pineda

Age40
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Andre Fili

3.88SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
4.34SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
2.32TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Daniel Pineda

2.85SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.26SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
1.42TD Avg
24.0%TD Acc.
54.0%TD Def.
1.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Angelo picks Andre Fili, noting he is more technical and will avoid Pineda's haymakers, survive the first round, and pull out a win. He does not love the -225 odds or 8900 price tag but believes Fili wins. He has a bet on under 2.5 rounds because Pineda is feast or famine.

under 2.5 rounds
"i have andre feely winning this fight i don't love minus 225 odds i don't necessarily love the 8 900 draftking price tag because daniel pineda does hit hard and is willing to throw everything into those strikes"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Big Brady picks Andre Fili to win by KO, noting Pineda's 100% finish rate but also his age (35) and recent poor performance against Cub Swanson. He thinks Pineda is very dangerous in the first round but will gas out, and Fili can weather the storm and finish him later. He compares it to the Rosa/Jaynes fight. He would not bet it due to Pineda's danger.

by KO, would not bet
"i'm gonna say philly wins by knockout here i'm gonna say philly knocks out daniel pineda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Andre Fili but expects a sweat. He notes Pineda has never won a decision in 50 pro fights, meaning he must finish Fili. Fili is extremely durable, having been dropped but never finished cleanly. Cody thinks Fili's cardio and toughness will allow him to outlast Pineda, who tends to fade after the first round. He suggests live betting Pineda early and then Fili later.

"i think that this is going to be a sweat a sweat big time sweat for around a round and a half and then i think feely should pull away"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Jacob picks Andre Fili, praising his toughness and competition level. He notes Fili has lost only to top fighters and has survived against tough opponents. Jacob believes Fili will dominate and is great value at 8900. He likes more/more on the monkey knife fight line.

"i just love andre's toughness in this fight i think uh you know pineda is very very talented but i think if push comes to shove when things get nasty if there's adversity to overcome andre feel is …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Fili has one of the best jabs in the UFC and should use it to keep Pineda at distance. He needs to stay disciplined and on the outside to avoid Pineda's forward pressure. Fili's height and reach advantage will be key. If he lets Pineda inside or get taken down, it could be a rough night. Fili should outpoint Pineda on the feet and win a decision.

Fili by decision plus 230
"I think that feeling will present a fight here that's gonna you know keep it quite disciplined... I do think it comes via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul picks Fili but is not excited about the -225 price. He notes Fili's durability and solid grappling, and that Pineda comes out fast but fades. He thinks Fili can survive the early storm and take over. He considered Fili by decision but the +150 odds didn't excite him.

"i'm picking feely in this spot but minus 225 the the price doesn't feel great"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by late second-round TKO, citing his size, reach, and range advantage over Pineda. He believes Fili's defense will neutralize Pineda's leg kicks and that Pineda's cardio will fade due to a tough weight cut. He expects Fili to box Pineda up and finish him against the cage in the second round.

late second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with andre philly late second round tko"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tim Means

Tim Means W

33-17-1
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 5 VS Welterweight Completed

Tim Means

Moneyline
Caesars -130
KO/TKO
BetRivers +400
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
BetWay +200

Nicolas Dalby

Moneyline
FanDuel +270
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
BetMGM +1100
Decision
BetMGM +230
Fighter Stats

Tim Means

Age42
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Nicolas Dalby

Age41
Height5' 11"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tim Means

5.04SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Nicolas Dalby

3.88SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.51SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.9TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Angelo picks Tim Means, citing his high-volume striking, underrated wrestling, and ability to avoid damage. He notes Means picks his shots and takes opponents down when needed. He expects Means to win a decision. He likes less on Means and more on Dalby for the monkey knife fight line.

"tim means is my pick here i think tim needs sort of picks him apart take him down takes him down when he needs to and rides out a decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady picks Tim Means to win by decision, citing superior striking stats (5.16 sig strikes/min, 48% accuracy, 61% striking defense) and Dalby's negative strike differential. He notes Dalby has been dropped in four of seven UFC fights but never KO'd. He thinks Means will out-volume Dalby on the feet, as Dalby rarely wrestles (only one takedown in last five fights). He is confident Means is the better striker.

by decision
"i will take 10 means to win i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Cody picks Dalby as a live underdog. He notes Dalby's toughness and heart, and that Means has lost as a favorite before. He points out that Means had a fight cancelled last week, which could disrupt his preparation. Cody also mentions Dalby's reach advantage and that Means is 37 with wear and tear. He thinks Dalby can grind Means against the cage and take over late if Means doesn't finish early.

"i'm gonna officially go for the prp sake dolby because again what am i going to do pick all these favorites like i'm recognizing this as a dog with a chance"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Jacob picks Nicolas Dalby, jokingly citing that Dalby fought Darren Till to a draw in 2015 and outstruck him. He seems to be half-joking but picks Dalby to win. He does not provide serious technical analysis.

"dalby in 2015 bought the best striking middleweight in the world to a draw and outstruck him 111 to 49. we're talking about the greatest middleweight gonna go down of all time one of the greatest strikers of …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Means is a much better striker with higher output than Dalby. If Means keeps the fight vertical, he will light up Dalby. Dalby has knockout power but Means' durability is a concern; however, Means should avoid getting knocked out. Means' efficiency and tight striking will earn him a decision. Dalby's speed and timing could pose issues, but Means is the more proven striker.

Means by decision plus 205
"I think that if means is able to keep the swipe vertical which i think he will he's going to light up dolby like a christmas tree himself... I do like tim means here i like tim means …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul picks Tim Means, citing Means' better striking and underrated wrestling. He notes Means was supposed to fight last week and had a cancelled bout, but that might not be a big issue. He thinks Means has the skills to win, but acknowledges Dalby's toughness and that Means can fade. He is not confident and suggests watching weigh-ins.

"means for me but you know having a fight last week having it cancelled a lot of moving parts definitely uh tune into the weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tim Means

The MMA Guru picks Tim Means by first-round submission (d'arce choke), citing his crisp boxing and ability to land straight shots down the pipe. He identifies defensive holes in Dalby's striking, as seen in the Jesse Ronson fight, and believes Means will hurt Dalby, prompting a bad takedown that leads to a choke. He trusts Means' composure and experience.

first round submission, d'arce choke
"i'm gonna go with tim means i think he's gonna get a first round ko over nicholas dalby"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Renato Moicano

Renato Moicano W

21-7-1
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:34
Fight 6 VS Lightweight Completed

Renato Moicano

Moneyline
Caesars -240
KO/TKO
BetMGM +700
Submission
BetRivers +180
Decision
BetMGM +250

Jai Herbert

Moneyline
FanDuel +580
KO/TKO
BetMGM +375
Submission
BetMGM +3300
Decision
BetMGM +600
Fighter Stats

Renato Moicano

Age37
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jai Herbert

Age38
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Renato Moicano

4.1SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.55SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.68TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jai Herbert

3.07SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
3.26SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.43TD Avg
21.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Angelo picks Renato Moicano, citing his slick ground game and technical striking. He notes that moving up to lightweight will help Moicano's cardio. He has a bet on under 2.5 rounds and believes Moicano will close the distance and get a takedown. He thinks the fight will not go the distance.

under 2.5 rounds
"i have moykano in my draftking lineup oh no wait do i i'll have to double check i wouldn't do that well i have it on my uh i have a spreadsheet here with the fighter the notes …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first round submission, citing a massive step down in competition for Moicano. He notes Moicano's elite ground game and that Herbert has been knocked out twice, including by Rhys McKee. He thinks Moicano should take the fight to the mat early for a quick sub, but warns about Moicano's chin (three KO losses). He expects Moicano to be levels above Herbert.

by submission, first round
"i'm gonna take my kana i'm gonna take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Cody picks Moicano, arguing that Herbert is too green and has only a puncher's chance. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters (Korean Zombie, Aldo, Ortega, Fiziev), while Herbert has fought lower-level competition. Moicano's wrestling and takedown defense should be enough to get the fight to the ground, where he has a huge advantage. Cody acknowledges Moicano's chin is a concern but thinks Herbert's lack of experience against top grapplers will be decisive.

under 2.5 rounds -135
"i think against mike cono he's running into way too many problems and not but not at least mike connor actually doesn't want to strike right yeah he's chinny but he wants to get these fights to the …"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Jacob picks Renato Moicano, noting that Moicano's last win was over Damir Hadžović, who Yancy Medeiros is fighting. He thinks Moicano will get takedowns and submit Herbert. However, he is not sure about the 9400 price tag but has Moicano in his lineup.

"yeah i got more kind of winning this fight but at 9 400 i don't know if about all that so i actually just double checked my lineup i do have him in there at ninety four hundred …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Moicano should drag the fight to the ground to avoid Herbert's striking. Herbert has nasty striking and dropped Trinaldo, but his takedown defense is terrible. Moicano's jiu-jitsu is levels above Herbert's, and he will find a submission. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play as both are live for finishes. Moicano's durability issues are a concern, but he should get the job done on the ground.

Under 2.5 rounds -145; Moicano inside the distance; Moicano by submission; fight won't start round 3 minus 130
"I think the best way moy cono has to win this fight is drag this fight to the ground... I do think that we'll see a finish out of the way here i think it's going to be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Paul picks Moicano, but his first bet of the card is under 2.5 rounds. He thinks either Moicano gets a submission or Herbert lands a knockout. He notes Herbert's reach and power but questions his chin and durability. Paul believes Moicano's wrestling and BJJ will be too much if he can get the fight to the ground.

under 2.5 rounds -135 (1 unit)
"i'm on the only my first bet of the entire card i took some of the under two and a half minus uh 135 to win one unit"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert by third-round TKO, favoring his size, reach, and momentum from training with Leon Edwards. He believes Herbert's wild style and pot shots will overwhelm Moicano, who is small for lightweight and coming off a KO loss. He acknowledges both have suspect chins but trusts Herbert's ability to land first.

third round TKO
"i'll go with a third round tko for jai herbert"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Kennedy Nzechukwu W

14-6-1
TKO (punches) R3 0:20
Fight 7 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Moneyline
FanDuel +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +180
Submission
BetMGM +3300
Decision
BetMGM +400

Danilo Marques

Moneyline
Caesars +120
KO/TKO
BetMGM +950
Submission
BetWay +275
Decision
BetMGM +400
Fighter Stats

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Age33
Height6' 5"
Reach83.0"
Weight236 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Danilo Marques

Age40
Height6' 6"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Kennedy Nzechukwu

4.96SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
4.58SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.5TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Danilo Marques

1.44SLpM
79.0%Str. Acc.
2.52SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
3.93TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his power, reach advantage, takedown defense, and ability to take a beating and come back. He has a moneyline bet and a bet on over 1.5 rounds because he doesn't see a quick finish. He notes the line flipped from underdog to favorite.

over 1.5 rounds
"kennedy and chukwu is my pick uh i have him in draftkings i took a moneyline bet on him and i bet the over on rounds this was the only fight in the card i believe where the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by third round KO, citing his excellent takedown defense and get-up game, youth, and cardio advantage. He notes Marques has poor striking and cardio, and relies on takedowns which Nzechukwu can stuff. He expects Nzechukwu to out-strike Marques as the fight goes on and finish him when Marques gasses. He agrees with the line flip.

by KO, third round
"i do think that kennedy does get a third round finish i think a third round knockout for kennedy and zekachu"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Nzechukwu, believing he has made improvements. He notes Nzechukwu's durability and that he has been training at Fortis MMA. He thinks Nzechukwu's takedown defense has improved and that he can keep the fight standing, where he has a striking advantage. He acknowledges Marques' grinding style but thinks Nzechukwu's size and power will be too much if he stuffs takedowns.

"i'm playing into the narrative that i think he made the improvements whereas denial marquez is you hated this guy everything oh one day"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Jacob picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, praising his fight IQ in the last fight where he shelled up and let his opponent gas out. He notes Nzechukwu's takedown defense is very good and his striking is sharp. Jacob has Nzechukwu in his lineup at 8200 and thinks he is great value.

"i actually found kennedy in my lineup at 8 200 um you know i think after that last fight he's got incredible fight iq i i saw some great take down the fence from him so i think …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu has much better striking and should stuff takedowns to keep the fight standing. Marques is the worst 2-0 fighter in the UFC with poor striking. Nzechukwu will punish Marques on the feet and likely get a KO in the first or second round. However, Marques has proven me wrong before, so there is some hesitation. Nzechukwu's takedown defense and get-up game are solid.

Nzechukwu by KO; Nzechukwu round 1 or 2
"I do think and zuchu wins this fight probably by uh first or second round ko... I really think it's just a matter of time until marquez takes that l"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Danilo Marques

Paul leans toward Marques as a dog, noting his effective if ugly grinding style. He thinks Marques can scoop up Nzechukwu's lead leg for takedowns and control him on the ground. He mentions Marques by submission or decision as possible plays. He is not confident because Nzechukwu's get-up game looked decent against Stosage.

Marques by decision +400 (potential play)
"i'm considering because marquez by submissions like plus 220 or something like that i'm considering marquez by decision plus 400"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by unanimous decision (29-28), highlighting his takedown defense shown against Paul Craig (15 of 16 stuffed). He believes Nzechukwu will win on the feet, outworking Marques as he gasses from failed takedowns. He expects Nzechukwu to pick up volume in rounds two and three.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm going with kennedy as a chukwu rounds two and three twenty nine twenty eight unanimous decision"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Shavkat Rakhmonov W

19-0
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10
Fight 8 VS Welterweight Completed

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Moneyline
BetMGM -300
KO/TKO
BetMGM +225
Submission
BetRivers +600
Decision
BetWay +240

Michel Prazeres

Moneyline
FanDuel +290
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetRivers +450
Fighter Stats

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Age31
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Michel Prazeres

Age44
Height5' 6"
Reach67.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Shavkat Rakhmonov

3.25SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
2.17SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
1.4TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Michel Prazeres

2.38SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
2.51SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
3.94TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.

over on rounds
"i think rachmanoff can win anywhere and and basically will win anywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.

by KO, third round
"i'm going to say rock band wins by third round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.

"i would have to go again with another favorite chavez mount rockmon who i was high coming into the ufc cash that ticket at a good odds in my opinion over cowboy oliveira"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.

"i'm gonna take a line out of your uh playbook because you always say when one fighter just has more ways to win than the other fighter i think that's exactly what this is with rakhmanov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.

Rakhmonov by decision
"I like rachmaninov here i think he wins by decision but i'm not running home yet to uh throw him into all my parleys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.

"rachmanoff i i didn't think that his his debut was all that impressive but i think it's onwards and upwards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.

first round guillotine choke
"i'm gonna pick him to win by guillotine again"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jeremiah Wells

Jeremiah Wells W

13-4-1
KO (punches) R2 0:30
Fight 9 VS Welterweight Completed

Jeremiah Wells

Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
BetRivers +500
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetMGM +500

Warlley Alves

Moneyline
FanDuel -112
KO/TKO
BetMGM +155
Submission
BetRivers +500
Decision
BetWay +350
Fighter Stats

Jeremiah Wells

Age39
Height5' 9"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Warlley Alves

Age35
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jeremiah Wells

2.35SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
1.28SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
3.06TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
1.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Warlley Alves

3.04SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.95SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.22TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Angelo picks Warlley Alves, citing his full training camp, consistency, and veteran experience. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells is live with good grappling and wild striking but is not confident due to Wells' two-year layoff and short notice UFC debut. Angelo thinks Alves is the safer pick.

"i think warley is the pick full training camp has been consistent an actual veteran with some solid fights i think jeremiah's live may come out there and shock a lot of people but i just don't um …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Warlley Alves to win by first round KO, despite acknowledging his inconsistency and poor cardio. He notes Alves's dangerous finishing ability and that Wells is making his UFC debut on short notice after a long layoff. He thinks Alves will finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Wells could be a live bet. He would not parlay Alves.

by KO, first round, would not parlay, live bet on Wells if past first round
"the picks and me alvas i'm taking the win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Alves but with low confidence due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has all the tools but often gasses after one round. However, Wells also has cardio issues and is on short notice. Cody thinks Alves has advantages everywhere if he shows up, but he won't bet him because of the trap potential. He suggests the under 1.5 rounds as a possible play.

"i gotta go with worley alba's but i learned my lesson on betting worley he's gonna either show up and i'm you'll say i wish i had more money on him or he's not going to show up"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Jacob picks Jeremiah Wells, noting his fast hands, real jiu-jitsu under Henzo Gracie, and potential to be a one-punch knockout artist. He acknowledges the risk of the layoff and short notice but believes Wells is live and can win. Jacob wanted to make Wells his lock of the week but wasn't confident enough.

"first of all i would i would play the the more and more on this um and i really wanted to make jeremiah my lock of the week honestly we saw what happened uh what was it last …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Alves is the much better striker with legitimate jiu-jitsu. Wells is on short notice and has inactivity issues. Alves will take whatever Wells throws and make him pay. Wells has a puncher's chance but can't maintain pressure for 15 minutes. Alves should win by decision, though his cardio could be a factor if things don't go his way.

Alves by decision
"I think that elvis has the chops to survive whatever was just throwing at him and then just give it right back to him... I think alves probably wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Alves but is not confident. He notes Alves' cardio issues but thinks Wells also fades. He believes Alves has better skills and should win if he doesn't gas. He is not betting the fight but would lean under 1.5 rounds if forced.

"i like worley but 2 30 for a guy that i have no faith can fight 15 minutes is a really tough ask"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

The MMA Guru picks Warlley Alves by first-round KO, citing Wells as a short-notice replacement without quick finishes or devastating power. He notes Alves' rejuvenated career and believes Wells' age (34) and lack of first-round KOs work against him. He expects Alves to capitalize early before cardio becomes a factor.

first round KO
"i'll go have wale alves here getting a first round ko over jeremiah wells"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Marcin Prachnio

Marcin Prachnio W

17-9
TKO (body kick) R2 0:56
Fight 10 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Marcin Prachnio

Moneyline
FanDuel +205
KO/TKO
BetWay +188
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetMGM +260

Ike Villanueva

Moneyline
Caesars +190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +275
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetMGM +625
Fighter Stats

Marcin Prachnio

Age37
Height6' 3"
Reach74.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ike Villanueva

Age42
Height6' 1"
Reach73.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Marcin Prachnio

5.52SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
3.15SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.14TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ike Villanueva

3.66SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
7.24SApM
36.0%Str. Def.
0.6TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Angelo picks Ike Villanueva, citing his toughness, forward pressure, speed, and power. He notes that Prachnio's three first-round knockout losses raise chin questions. Angelo believes Villanueva is a solid underdog and likes the under on rounds as a prop.

under on rounds (2.5)
"i think villanueva gets this done i think he's in a great spot in this underdog spot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Big Brady picks Ike Villanueva to win by first round KO, calling it a clear dog pass. He notes Prachnio's weak chin (four KO losses) and poor striking defense, while Villanueva is a powerful brawler with 83% finish rate. He believes the smaller Apex cage favors Villanueva's pressure style, and that Prachnio's path to victory (staying on the outside) is unlikely. He thinks the line is off and Villanueva should be closer to even.

by KO, first round, line makes no sense
"i'm actually going to pick ikeville over here to get the knockout on proc neil"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Cody picks Villanueva as a dog, noting his power and that Prachnio's chin has been checked. He thinks Villanueva has a puncher's chance and that Prachnio's defensive liabilities make him vulnerable. However, he is not confident and says he won't bet it, but for PRP purposes he takes Villanueva. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds +146 (1 unit)
"i think villanova is a live underdog but i remember at the top of the show you said you made a little bit of money last week and i said if i was disciplined i could have made …"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Jacob picks Marcin Prachnio, calling the fight a coin flip and going with Prachnio because he thinks he has a little more power than Ike. He notes a weird stat that Prachnio has never had a fight end in the second round. Jacob is not very confident and suggests staying away from this fight.

"i actually think that francio wins this fight um just because you know i think it's a coin flip and i'd go with crash new i think he's just got a little bit more power uh than ike"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Villanueva is durable and has heavy hands. Prachnio has a vulnerable chin and relies on a kicking game to stay away from power. Villanueva will march forward, absorb kicks, and land a knockout punch. Prachnio's chin issues will be exposed. Villanueva is one of my favorite dogs on the card.

Villanueva by KO plus 275
"I truly think that villanueva will uh uh you know expose that and i think he'll be able to find that knockout punch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul leans toward Prachnio based on his technical improvements in the last fight, but he is not betting him at -190. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and thinks the under 1.5 rounds is a better play. He acknowledges Villanueva's power but thinks Prachnio's volume could be key.

under 1.5 rounds +146 (1 unit)
"i'll lean towards practice but i'm not betting him as a minus 200 favorite this guy's chin has been checked far too many times i'd rather just bet the under in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio by decision, expecting a boring fight where Prachnio keeps range and outpoints Villanueva. He acknowledges Prachnio's chin issues but believes Villanueva's chin is equally suspect. He criticizes Villanueva's UFC caliber and notes his win over Vinicius Moreira was unimpressive.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i'm going to go with marcin prachnio here i think you'll get the job done by decision"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Julia Avila

Julia Avila W

9-4
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:19
Fight 11 VS Women’s Bantamweight Completed

Julia Avila

Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
BetMGM +300
Submission
BetMGM +850
Decision
BetWay +110

Julija Stoliarenko

Moneyline
Caesars +280
KO/TKO
BetMGM +2500
Submission
BetWay +700
Decision
BetRivers +600
Fighter Stats

Julia Avila

Age38
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Julija Stoliarenko

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Julia Avila

2.81SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.28SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.63TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Julija Stoliarenko

2.74SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
4.45SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.78TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
54.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Angelo picks Julia Avila, reasoning that Stoliarenko will accept being on her back, throw up submissions but not get any, and end up losing a decision. He notes Avila is a heavy-handed brawler who is aggressive on top. He advises staying away from Avila in betting due to high price but likes the over on strikes.

over on strikes (more/more)
"in my opinion i think avila is the is the play here because i think stoliarenko will accept being on her back throw up tons of submissions not get any of them and end up losing a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Big Brady picks Julia Avila to win by KO, citing her massive striking advantage and strength. He warns against going to the ground with Stoliarenko, who has eight armbar wins, but believes Avila can keep it standing and finish. He notes Stoliarenko's poor wrestling and that she has been finished by strikes in half her losses. He would not bet Avila at -400 but expects her to win.

by KO, would not bet at -400
"i'll take a villa i'm actually going to take her to win by ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Cody picks Avila, noting her athletic background and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Stoliarenko's level of competition and one-dimensional armbar game. He thinks Avila's striking and top game will be too much, and Stoliarenko's only path is pulling guard, which plays into Avila's strength. He is confident but acknowledges the price is high.

"i'm gonna go ahead and say i'm going with julia"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Jacob picks Julija Stoliarenko, citing her judo throw into armbar that she has done many times. He mentions that Joe Todora says Avila is his girl so he will stay away from her. Jacob is confident Stoliarenko finds a way to get the submission.

"i think we all picked story renko last time and and we're pretty confident about it listen joe todora says that avila is his girl so i'll stay away from her i got respect for joe tadora what's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Avila should keep the fight on the feet and overpower Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko is dangerous off her back with armbars, so Avila must be careful. Avila will look for a knockout via ground and pound after dropping her. The under 2.5 rounds is intriguing as both are live for finishes. However, Avila at -345 is not a betting recommendation.

Under 2.5 rounds plus 135 to plus 155
"I'm actually gonna go with uh avila by second round tko probably by ground and pound after dropping her... the only spot that i'm going to be looking at is the under two and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Paul picks Avila, noting Stoliarenko's poor UFC debut and limited skills. He thinks Avila's wrestling and striking are superior. He is not excited about the -360 price but sees Avila as a safe play. He mentions that Stoliarenko passed out on the scale in their previous booking, which is a red flag.

"avalo was supposed to like there were some offers and stuff i believe from like some bigger camps for her to go train"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Julia Avila

The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila, noting her better record, competition, and technique. He highlights her hands and combination punching, referencing her first-round finish of Gina Mazany. He also points out Stoliarenko's severe weight cut issues (fainting on the scales twice) as a major red flag, making Avila the safer bet.

"i'm gonna go with julia avila i went with her the first time she's got a better record fought better competition"
Fight Notes

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CH

Charles Rosa W

Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 12 VS Featherweight Completed

Charles Rosa

Moneyline
Caesars -160
KO/TKO
BetMGM +700
Submission
BetRivers +200
Decision
BetRivers +275

Justin Jaynes

Moneyline
BetRivers +140
KO/TKO
BetMGM +400
Submission
BetMGM +1650
Decision
BetMGM +450
Fighter Stats

Charles Rosa

Age39
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Justin Jaynes

Age36
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Charles Rosa

3.08SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
3.86SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.67TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Justin Jaynes

3.34SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
5.33SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
20.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
Fight Notes

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Damir Hadžović

Damir Hadžović W

14-8
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 13 VS Lightweight Completed

Damir Hadžović

Moneyline
Caesars -150
KO/TKO
BetMGM +260
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetRivers +225

Yancy Medeiros

Moneyline
FanDuel +128
KO/TKO
BetMGM +575
Submission
BetRivers +800
Decision
BetMGM +300
Fighter Stats

Damir Hadžović

Age39
Height5' 9"
Reach70"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Yancy Medeiros

Age38
Height5' 10"
Reach75.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Damir Hadžović

3.34SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
3.74SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
0.91TD Avg
54.0%TD Acc.
34.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Yancy Medeiros

4.36SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
5.67SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
0.33TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yancy Medeiros

Angelo picks Yancy Medeiros, noting that Medeiros has made big life changes by moving back to Hawaii and reinvesting in his career. He acknowledges Medeiros's aggressive style, good takedown defense, and competence on the ground, but also notes he is finishable. Angelo is less confident this time around compared to the first booking because he doesn't know what Medeiros has been doing since the fight was rebooked. He still leans Medeiros but is not as strong as before.

"i really love the auntie medeiros the first time jacob i think you you were with me on that train the first go-around has your mind changed are you still all about yancey in this fight or are …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damir Hadžović

Big Brady picks Damir Hadžović to win by knockout, citing Medeiros's poor 46% striking defense and three knockout losses. He notes Hadžović's power and 77% finish rate, while acknowledging Medeiros's volume and reach advantage. He expects a standing fight since Medeiros rarely wrestles, and predicts a first or second round KO.

by KO, first or second round, line a bit wide
"i'm gonna take the mirror hazardous side i'm gonna take him to win actually by knockout i think he knocks out antsy medeiros"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yancy Medeiros

Cody picks Medeiros as a dog, citing his experience, reach advantage, and output. He notes Hadžović has poor takedown defense and is one-dimensional. Medeiros has fought a who's who and has the durability to survive early power shots. Cody thinks Medeiros can outwork Hadžović over three rounds. He also mentions that this fight was scheduled four weeks ago and Hadžović pulled out, which is a positive for Medeiros.

"i'm gonna go with the dog play on yancey all right and hope he doesn't get caught early"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yancy Medeiros

Jacob picks Yancy Medeiros as his lock of the week, citing 'Hawaiian tough' and his friendship with the Diaz brothers as reasons for confidence. He believes Medeiros will be hyped up and ready to go. Jacob does not provide detailed technical analysis but is very confident in the pick.

"block of the week nancy medeiros i always talk about hawaiian tough i'm putting my money where my big mouth is and i'm making hawaiian tough the lock of the week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damir Hadžović

Hadžović is a powerful striker with good combinations. Medeiros has decent jiu-jitsu but his takedowns and grappling aren't good enough to keep Hadžović down. On the feet, Hadžović will land the more impactful shots and likely finish Medeiros in the second round via TKO. Medeiros is wild and loopy, while Hadžović is more technical.

Hadžović by TKO in round 2
"I think that has [__] will be able to kind of pretty much out point him and really land the much more impactful shots on the feet... I'm picking hats of each to win this fight and i …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yancy Medeiros

Paul leans toward Medeiros but is not confident. He notes Medeiros' durability has been compromised by wars, but he has a reach advantage and experience. He thinks Hadžović has power but is one-dimensional. Paul is not sure about Medeiros' chin but thinks the dog price is worth a shot.

"i would go with the underdog auntie maduro so again uh you know this is a card underdogs are going to come through"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Yancy Medeiros

The MMA Guru picks Yancy Medeiros based on his superior competition history, pace, cardio, and significant reach advantage (75.5 inches vs 70 inches). He expects a stand-up fight where Medeiros will outwork Hadžović over three rounds, winning by unanimous decision (30-27) through volume and consistent one-twos.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i'm going to go with the pace cardio and massive reach advantage of yancy madeiros here"
Fight Notes

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