vs
+132 -155
UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Da'Mon Blackshear
4.33 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.19 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.48 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luan Lacerda
4.06 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
6.15 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
2.82 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Da'Mon Blackshear
Moneyline
FanDuel +132
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1400
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
FanDuel +195
Luan Lacerda
Moneyline
Caesars -155
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
FanDuel +250
Decision
FanDuel +230
Da'Mon Blackshear - Fight History
LOSS vs Davey Grant
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davey Grant 0 66 of 130 50% 66 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 33 of 74 44% 36 of 78 1 of 5 20% 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davey Grant 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:52
2 Davey Grant 0 29 of 57 50% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 17 of 33 51% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Davey Grant 0 34 of 68 50% 34 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davey Grant 66 of 130 50% 17 of 67 27 of 39 22 of 24 65 of 128 1 of 1 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 33 of 74 44% 12 of 45 7 of 13 14 of 16 31 of 72 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davey Grant 3 of 5 60% 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Davey Grant 29 of 57 50% 9 of 31 13 of 19 7 of 7 29 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 17 of 33 51% 6 of 17 5 of 9 6 of 7 17 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Davey Grant 34 of 68 50% 8 of 35 14 of 20 12 of 13 33 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 14 of 37 37% 4 of 24 2 of 4 8 of 9 13 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Davey Grant vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blackshear (-270); Grant (+210)

Round 1
Turning 40 in December, Grant (16-7, 7-6 UFC) knows he may be fast approaching the age cliff, although he did win his last bout. He faces a submission magician in Blackshear (17-7-1, 5-3-1 UFC) nearly a decade his junior, which might not be in his best interest as “Dangerous Davey” posts more losses by sub than any other method. With three rounds to work, the bantamweights meet in the middle with no plan on bumping fists, and referee Jason Herzog will take it from there.
Grant opens up with wide low kicks to the thigh, hoping to keep an arc on them that would dissuade an early takedown effort. He goes after the longer legs of Blackshear a few times on the inside and out, and Blackshear still manages to pursue a takedown and hit it. Grant scoots his way to put his back to the fence, and he uses his legs to try to post off and gets some space from “Da Monster.” Grant gets to a knee, and Blackshear welcomes this as he hops to the side and slides a hook in. Blackshear sneaks his leg around the other side, and he follows a turning Grant until he can secure both hooks.
Blackshear does not set up a body triangle, instead retaining control while thwarting attempts to buck and escape. Grant turns over and finds himself in submission danger, as Blackshear grips hold of what turns into a face and neck crank rather than a textbook rear-naked choke. Grant toughs it out and tries to get out of the back take, only for Blackshear to turn to the proper direction to isolate the Brit’s left arm for a potential armbar. Grant stays heavy on his opponent to not allow Blackshear to extend a limb, and he explodes just enough to wrench his arm out of danger. Grant rains down a couple left hands and an elbow as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 2
Grant takes to the center of the cage to start the round, walking down the grappler and punching him a couple times in the stomach. Grant’s blitz forces Blackshear to ricochet off the wire, and he digs a kick to the ribs. Grant doubles up on a jab and follows with an overhand right that is parried, but his jab to the midsection does connect. They back off to disengage for a time, reaching one another with single low kicks but little else. Grant turns his hips into a thumping kick to the lead leg, and Blackshear drives him away with an overhand right. Grant plants punches to the midsection, a left to the dome and a head kick on the other side to keep Blackshear guessing.
Blackshear rebounds off the wire but has become target practice at this point, with little offense offered on his side other than the occasional kick. Grant times a shot by catching Blackshear with an uppercut, and he gets his foe’s attention with a string of punches to follow. Blackshear nods at him, and he wades forward trying to mask a takedown setup with punches that he does not let fly. Both men land hard punches, but Grant’s are far heavier and knock Blackshear back a step or two when he lands flush. Blackshear circles on the outside offering a body kick and keeping his guard up to block a series of punches and a high kick, the similar combination to earlier. Blackshear goes for body kicks, and Grant peppers him with punches and a low kick that makes Blackshear evaluate his footing. As Grant spams high kicks, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant

Round 3
The bantamweights reach the final frame, and Blackshear says hello again with a calf kick. Grant misses his counter, and Blackshear jabs him up and opens a cut on the bridge of his foe’s nose. Grant is putting a lot of mustard behind his swings, including two concussive blows that make Blackshear bounce off the fencing. Blackshear responds with kicks, but Grant’s fists are having an impact as Blackshear reacts poorly when struck. Grant keeps his man guessing with mixed up punches and kicks to varied targets, like a calf kick to a body shot to a high kick upstairs in rapid succession.
Blackshear targets the wounded spot on his opponent’s forehead to set up a takedown, and Grant’s defense holds up as he clubs “Da Monster” in the jaw with a right hand after stopping the shot. Blackshear goes to his knees for a double, and Grant once more tosses it aside and hurls a right hand at his foe. Blackshear tries to intercept the hard-charging Brit with a knee, and Grant avoids it and starts hammering the front leg with kicks as Blackshear is starting to limp. The kicks from Grant are so powerful that getting checked splits his shin open, as blood flows down his foot to leave partial scarlet footprints around the Octagon. This does not slow him from pitching kicks one second, as he keeps beating on the taller man’s front leg until Blackshear switches stances. When this happens, Grant starts kicking the other leg, and he stops a takedown in its tracks and holds back on firing off a knee that would have been illegal. He lets Blackshear stand, marching him down and hurling right hands at him. Blackshear blocks the worst of them, evading the final strikes as the match comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant (29-28 Grant)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grant (29-28 Grant)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant (29-28 Grant)

The Official Result
Davey Grant def. Da'Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear, stating he wins 7 out of 10 times. He notes Blackshear's athletic striking, speed, power, and grappling, but worries about his hesitancy. Davey Grant is old, chinny, but relentless with volume. Angelo likely will bet on Blackshear but wishes he knew Blackshear would let his hands go.

Likely will bet on Blackshear
"Dean Blackshere is going to be the pick and I'm gonna pick him. I likely have a bet on him at some point this week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady picks Da'Mon Blackshear but with hesitation, noting Blackshear has not wrestled in his last four fights despite having a huge grappling advantage. He believes if Blackshear grapples, he will win easily via submission, but if he strikes, he could lose to Grant's awkward volume and power. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I got to go Blackshere just because it's like so clear. ... I think he finishes Davy Grant in the very first round by submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Blackshear should be able to chip away at Grant from distance, mix in takedowns, and ultimately lock up a submission to force the tap.

submission
"I believe Blackshere should be able to chip away at Grant from distance, maybe even mix in a few takedowns, but I ultimately think it leads to Blackshire locking up a submission and forcing the tap from Davy Grant."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear over Davey Grant, citing Blackshear's underrated submission and grappling game, and his composed performance against Eli Alateng. He worries Grant may have declined after neck surgery and time off. He predicts a second-round finish by submission or TKO after a wild first round.

Finish, round 2
"I'm gonna take Deon Blackshere to get this one done by finish. Submission TKO. Second round finish for Deon Blackshere."
WIN vs Alateng Heili
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 125 of 273 45% 127 of 275 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 61 of 190 32% 61 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 37 of 78 47% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 11 of 45 24% 11 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 40 of 96 41% 42 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 48 of 99 48% 48 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 25 of 85 29% 25 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 125 of 273 45% 75 of 200 37 of 50 13 of 23 123 of 270 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 61 of 190 32% 34 of 148 19 of 34 8 of 8 60 of 189 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 37 of 78 47% 17 of 45 15 of 21 5 of 12 37 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 11 of 45 24% 7 of 38 1 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 40 of 96 41% 24 of 74 11 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 25 of 60 41% 11 of 41 13 of 18 1 of 1 24 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Da'Mon Blackshear 48 of 99 48% 34 of 81 11 of 14 3 of 4 47 of 97 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 25 of 85 29% 16 of 69 5 of 12 4 of 4 25 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Alateng Heili struggles to combine his skills, and that Blackshear's technical boxing and clean takedowns should prevail. He has Blackshear in a parlay with Joselyne Edwards.

Parlay with Joselyne Edwards at -105 odds
"De Man Blackshere is the pick. He is in the other half of that parlay with Joselyn Edwards."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady is confident in Da'Mon Blackshear, highlighting his superior grappling and Alateng Heili's low volume and lack of wrestling. He expects Blackshear to get the fight to the ground and submit Heili, noting a massive skill gap on the mat. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The host acknowledges Heili's wrestling could cause issues but believes Blackshear's striking power and BJJ black belt will keep him safe and allow him to grind out a decision win.

"I believe Black Shear's power in his striking as well as his BJJ black belt should allow him to stay safe in most of these positions and end up grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear to win by finish in the first two rounds. He cites Blackshear's reach advantage (5.5 inches), activity, and ability to dictate range. He notes Heili is not a pressure fighter and fights once a year, which hurts his development. He expects Blackshear to hurt Heili and finish via TKO or submission.

finish in first two rounds
"I'm actually going to go De Man Blackshere getting a finish in the first two rounds. I don't know what way he's going to do it. Maybe he hurts him and then finishes him with a submission."
WIN vs Cody Gibson
Submission R2 4:09 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 13 of 39 33% 46 of 74 0 of 1 0% 3 1 3:32
Cody Gibson 0 45 of 71 63% 53 of 82 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 6 of 16 37% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:11
Cody Gibson 0 30 of 43 69% 37 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:13
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 7 of 23 30% 37 of 53 0 of 1 0% 1 1 2:21
Cody Gibson 0 15 of 28 53% 16 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 13 of 39 33% 11 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 45 of 71 63% 23 of 47 12 of 14 10 of 10 31 of 53 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 6 of 16 37% 5 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 30 of 43 69% 16 of 27 9 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 30 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 7 of 23 30% 6 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 15 of 28 53% 7 of 20 3 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blackshear (-455), Gibson (+350)

Round 1
Despite their middling records with the promotion, the UFC elected to slot this bantamweight tilt between Blackshear (15-7-1, 3-3-1 UFC) and Gibson (21-10, 3-5 UFC) over names like Spann…and others. Grappling could be the difference maker in this contest, and it commences without the fighters touching gloves. Referee Chris Tognoni stands back and stands by. Gibson loads up on a big right hand to start up, and when it is blocked, Blackshear responds in kind. Blackshear surges forward with body shots and a power right hand, and Gibson replies with an identical flurry that knocks Blackshear to the fencing. Gibson looks for a level change, energetically attacking a single and lifting Blackshear’s leg up. Blackshear frees himself, and Gibson marches him down and pummels him in the ribs several times. Blackshear turtles up, perhaps still compromised from body blows, and Gibson is on him not giving him a moment to breathe. Gibson drills Blackshear with a few more body shots and drops down in pursuit of a double. Blackshear defends with a guillotine choke, using the stalling time to recover. Gibson drives a few knees to the body before breaking off, and he plods forward whipping a kick to the lead leg. When Blackshear scores as left hand, Gibson is in his face with a combination. Blackshear backs him away with a few kicks, and simultaneous kicks results in both men toppling to the mat. They spring back up, and Gibson stabs out a jab and shoots for a single. Blackshear backs to the wall and grips a guillotine choke, pulling guard for it but not completing it. Gibson adjusts himself and lowers Blackshear all the way to the floor, and Blackshear fastens his arm around the chin but does not appear to be threatening in this position. Gibson stays calm in the position, and when he sits up, Blackshear transitions to a power guillotine where he imposes his body weight. Blackshear releases the sub to take side control, and Gibson throws his legs up and briefly snares Blackshear in an inverted triangle choke. Blackshear fights out of it and isolates an arm, and he abandons it to wrap up a brabo choke in a north-south position. Gibson hand-fights well enough to defend the efforts, and he retaliates with an armbar that surprises Blackshear but does not get him. The spirited round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gibson

Round 2
Replays show that right at the tail end of the round, Blackshear rips a nasty elbow that opened a cut on Gibson’s face. The two get back to business, and Blackshear is immediately giving chase with leaping strikes. Gibson walks into a right hand and is stunned, and Blackshear keeps swinging with bad intentions. Gibson throws back, working the body until he tries to hit a takedown, and Blackshear shuts it down and pushes him away. Gibson strings four punches together, wrapping them around the guard and punctuating the combo with a slapping leg kick. Blackshear fakes a kick and slashes an elbow up top, and Gibson steps in with his fists flying. The two engage in a clinch battle where they slug another with uppercuts, and Gibson gets tired of punching and scoops “Da Monster” up and dumps him to the mat. Blackshear keeps his back to the wire, and he hits a switch to flip Gibson to his back. Blackshear finds himself in side control, keeping tightly pressed to “The Renegade” having opened Gibson up again. Blackshear isolates Gibson’s right arm, and he elbows Gibson in the thigh several times with the sharp part of his elbow. Gripping the two-on-one wrist lock, Blackshear alternates between trying to pull on that arm and elbowing his opponent wherever he can. Blackshear grinds the elbow on Gibson’s increasingly bloodied face, and he stays heavy to disallow Gibson from any bucking or twisting. Blackshear hooks Gibson’s left arm between his legs and traps his foe’s right arm under him as well to set up a crucifix position, where he hammers the California native with elbows.
Blackshear finds the kimura again, and he grabs it while seated on top of Gibson’s face in a dominating move. The new Kill Cliff FC convert cranks the limb behind Gibson’s back, giving it all he has until Gibson has no choice but to say “Matte” and tap out.
Remarkable! Back-to-back kimura wins in the Octagon is definitely a rarity in company history, and it will be interesting to determine how many times this has ever happened in UFC history. Blackshear lifts his UFC record above .500 while giving “The Renegade” something to be disappointed about.

The Official Result
Da'Mon Blackshear def. Cody Gibson R2 4:09 via Submission (Kimura)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear over Cody Gibson. He believes Blackshear's striking is far superior and that he will 'smoke Cody on the feet.' However, he notes that Cody is durable and may look to wrestle. Angelo is confident Blackshear wins but chooses not to bet due to the risk of big favorites losing this year.

"I think the Striking Gap is so wide that I am going to pick them on here I'm pretty confident him to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady picks Da'Mon Blackshear, calling him underrated with good striking and slick grappling (BJJ black belt). He notes that Cody Gibson often looks to take fights to the ground, which could put him in bad positions against Blackshear, who has submitted opponents via guillotine before. Brady expects a ground battle where Blackshear's superior grappling leads to a submission win, likely in the second round.

Blackshear second round submission
"I like blackshire here... I'll take blackshire to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Christian Rodriguez, citing Andre Fili's decline and Rodriguez's youth. He notes Fili's recent close decisions and losses, and believes Rodriguez can stuff takedowns and win on the feet. He is wary of Rodriguez's tendency to struggle against experienced fighters but thinks Fili is past his prime.

"I got Crod as well because a lot of the same things, which is just narrative. I feel like Phy's kind of on the back nine. Not only is it a little bit slower, he's just a little more disinterested."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Blackshear is one of the best scramblers in the bantamweight division and that Gibson's style will inevitably lead to grappling exchanges where Blackshear has the advantage. He notes that Gibson is fun and courageous but lacks the athleticism to keep up with Blackshear's scrambling.

"Got to take him here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The host believes Blackshear's grappling advantage and power striking approach will keep Gibson on the defensive, leading to Blackshear grinding out a win on the scorecards.

"I believe Black Shear is grappling uh Advantage I think he'll be able to keep Gibson at Bay utilizing his power striking approach wrapping Gibson up keeping him on the defensive and that should eventually lead to Black sh grinding …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Rodriguez, noting Fili's inconsistency and Rodriguez's ability to stuff takedowns. He points out that Fili's recent wins have been split decisions and he could be on a losing streak. He believes Rodriguez's volume and wrestling defense will be enough.

"Crod's a pick for me. What about you?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, calling him underrated and noting his good fight with Mario Bautista. He mentions Blackshear's takedown defense clinic against Brett Johns and his recent submission win over Cody Stamann with a 50k bonus. He criticizes Cody Gibson for lacking finishing ability and not impressing against Miles Johns. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Blackshear.

First or second round finish
"I'm going to say first or second round finish for Deon black year I think he's pretty underrated"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Zane picks Blackshear because he is a significantly better athlete and scrambler than Gibson. He notes that Gibson's high-energy style leads to him fading, and that Blackshear excels in scrambles, which is where the fight will likely go. He also points out that Gibson is underpowered and that Blackshear's only losses come to fighters who can survive his scrambles and out-strike him.

Odds: Blackshear opened -428, now -484; Gibson opened +302, now +335.
"Got to take him here."
WIN vs Cody Stamann
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Stamann 0 20 of 44 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Stamann 0 20 of 44 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 13 of 33 39% 5 of 21 5 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 20 of 44 45% 15 of 36 3 of 4 2 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 13 of 33 39% 5 of 21 5 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 20 of 44 45% 15 of 36 3 of 4 2 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo believes Da'Mon Blackshear is the better fighter with far better striking and good wrestling. He thinks Cody Stamann will get outstruck and then shoot sloppy takedowns. However, he notes Blackshear is 2-4 in the UFC and hasn't had a key win over a division staple like Stamann, so he is not confident enough to bet. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Stamann if the odds are good.

considering plus 3.5 round bet on Cody Stamann if odds are favorable
"Daman is just the better fighter here in my opinion he's got the far better striking even though Cody's been boxing for a very long time Daman is faster and he's more than just hands"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady favors Blackshear due to his size, reach, and youth advantage over the 35-year-old Stamann. He believes Blackshear's striking is underrated and his grappling is elite, with a black belt in BJJ. He expects Blackshear to have success wherever the fight goes and predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges the line may be too wide.

Blackshear by decision
"I'm going to take blackshire to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody is high on Stamann as a dog, citing Blackshear's cardio issues and lack of power. He notes Stamann's wrestling credentials and ability to get back up from takedowns. Cody expects a close decision and thinks the +230 line is too wide for a veteran like Stamann.

"I think Cody ston as a doger pass type situation plus 230 on Cody staman like me likey me likey."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Connor picks Stamann, noting Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it has cost him. He thinks Stamann's neutralizer style will make Blackshear make mistakes. Connor expects a narrow split decision, possibly ugly. He mentions Stamann is the underdog at +217 to +232.

Odds: Stamann +217 to +232, Blackshear -254 to -275. Connor says 'Surprising. I mean, I get that Stamann's coming, you know, he's lost a lot of fights lately, but you can't have to look at, have you seen the fight?'
"I think I have to, I have to pick Stamen. Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it's cost him regularly."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Daniel Vreeland picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his physical advantages (reach, height) and higher aspirations compared to Cody Stamann, who may be nearing retirement. He acknowledges Stamann's takedown defense and ability to make fights close, but believes Blackshear's grappling and motivation give him the edge. Vreeland expects a close fight.

"I'm gonna pick him for that reason but I would not at all be surprised if this was a very close fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Stamann is being overlooked as a +230 underdog. His defensive wrestling should keep him away from Blackshear's BJJ, allowing him to dictate the striking pace and pull away in the second and third rounds as Blackshear slows down. Expect a decision win.

underdog +230, wins by decision
"I do believe staman is being overlooked as he is a plus 230 Underdog I believe his defensive wrestling will allow him to stay away from the BJJ heavy approach of black here allowing him to dictate the pace in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul agrees, questioning how Blackshear can be such a favorite given his recent KO loss and cardio problems. He thinks Stamann's experience and wrestling will keep the fight competitive, and the price is too good to pass up. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass.

"Clear clear dogger pass I will have money on staman as well this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his size, strength, and youth. He criticizes Cody Stamann's lack of finishing ability and short reach. He notes Blackshear gave Mario Bautista a tough fight and believes he is the better fighter. He mentions the odds might be worth betting on Blackshear as a favorite.

Might be worth some money as a favorite
"I'm very confident he's going to win this fight um I got them on Black Shear I think he's just way better as a fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Zane picks Stamann, agreeing with Connor. He describes Stamann as a solid defensive striker who can bang in the pocket, but notes he never presses advantages. Zane thinks Blackshear's poor striking and tendency to start from negative positions will allow Stamann to neutralize him. He expects a narrow split decision.

Odds: Stamann +217 to +232, Blackshear -254 to -275. Zane says 'Surprising. I mean, I get that Stamann's coming, you know, he's lost a lot of fights lately, but you can't have to look at, have you seen the fight?'
"I think I have to, I have to pick Stamen. Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it's cost him regularly."
LOSS vs Montel Jackson
KO (punch) R1 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Montel Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-162), Blackshear (+136)

Round 1
The prelims continue as bantamweights meet in the Octagon, with Jackson (13-2, 7-2 UFC) putting together a quietly successful run in the UFC as he enters into his 10th fight. The same cannot be said for Blackshear (14-6-1, 2-2-1 UFC), who hopes to break out of his .500 record with a victory. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Nick Berens, who checks them in as they bump fists. Blackshear lands a leg kick earl y, and Jackson responds with a right hand that loops around the guard. They hand-fight, and Jackson sticks out a front kick.
As Blackshear steps in to attack, Jackson releases a lightning-quick one-two that knocks Blackshear clean off his feet. As Blackshear’s head ricochets off the mat, it is clear he is out cold, and Jackson knows that his work here is done but understands the rules and drops down a few unnecessary punches until Berens leaps in.
While the audience explodes in favor of the ultra-fast knockout, Jackson signals to bring it down a few notches and drops a knee out of concern for his wrecked opponent. Blackshear comes to, although he needs to lean on his coach to remain upright, and Jackson is relieved and goes to embrace his fallen foe. The confident Jackson, who finds himself on a mighty win streak after a vicious knockout, simply tells upcoming adversaries during his post-fight interview that they need to “sign the contract.”

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Da’Mon Blackshear R1 0:18 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson, citing his superior wrestling background (Olympic Training Facility), power, and speed. He notes that while Da'Mon Blackshear is a good underdog with early wrestling initiation, Montel's offensive wrestling and power should be the difference. Angelo plans to wait for prop bets before placing a wager.

Waiting for prop bets to drop before placing a bet.
"Montel is the pick before I place a bet on this fight I'm going to wait for all the props to drop"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, citing his striking advantage and improved grappling. He notes Blackshear's cardio issues and short notice, and believes Jackson will win by decision or late TKO. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns and outwork Blackshear.

"Montel Jackson is going to figure out a way how to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Daniel Vreeland leans with Da'Mon Blackshear as a plus 130 underdog. He notes that Montel Jackson is talented but inconsistent, often having long periods of inactivity. He thinks Blackshear's pressure and cardio could be factors, though he acknowledges Jackson's high ceiling. He calls it a tough fight to call but prefers the dog.

"I'll lean with the plus 130 dog just because I I could see this you know potentially being line minus 110 a piece so I'll go with the plus 130 dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Montel Jackson has shown improvements in surviving early rounds and taking over in the second and third. Blackshear tends to slow down later in fights. Jackson will keep the fight upright and use his power to finish Blackshear in the second or third round.

"I think we'll see good improvements here from Jackson in terms of being able to survive early then really start to take over in these second and third rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Paul picks Jackson but is less confident, citing Blackshear's wrestling threat. He notes Jackson's inactivity but believes his striking and cardio advantage will prevail. He expects a competitive fight and may wait for weigh-ins.

"Jackson will be the pick for the purpose of this show."
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Jose Johnson
Submission (twister) R1 3:47 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 46 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:57
Jose Johnson 0 8 of 12 66% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 46 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:57
Jose Johnson 0 8 of 12 66% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 18 of 30 60% 7 of 16 2 of 5 9 of 9 5 of 13 6 of 8 7 of 9
Jose Johnson 8 of 12 66% 4 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 18 of 30 60% 7 of 16 2 of 5 9 of 9 5 of 13 6 of 8 7 of 9
Jose Johnson 8 of 12 66% 4 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Cody picks Blackshear, citing his solid striking and top game. He notes Johnson's poor takedown defense and that Blackshear can mix in takedowns and control on the ground. He thinks Blackshear's experience against better competition (Yusuf Zalal, Basharat) will pay off. He expects Blackshear to get his first UFC win.

"Damon Blackshear will be the pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

James has not taped this fight, which was made 12 hours ago, and offers no pick.

"This fight was made a few hours ago... haven't done tape."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Blackshear is an explosive and athletic striker with a BJJ black belt, and he does great work in scrambles. Johnson is a striker coming in on short notice, and I have questions about his takedown defense. Blackshear should be able to take advantage of Johnson's layoff and short notice to grind out a decision.

Blackshear by decision
"give me blackstrike here to grind this fight out and Win It by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Paul picks Blackshear, noting his improvements and solid grappling shown in his last fight against Luan Lacerda. He is surprised early action is on Johnson and thinks Blackshear's cardio and grappling will be too much. He expects Blackshear to win by decision or submission.

"for the purposes of this show will be Damon Blackshear with ya"
WIN vs Luan Lacerda
TKO (punches) R2 3:54 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 66 of 135 48% 85 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:14
Luan Lacerda 0 28 of 64 43% 31 of 67 1 of 4 25% 1 1 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 30 of 60 50% 44 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
Luan Lacerda 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 36 of 75 48% 41 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:45
Luan Lacerda 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 66 of 135 48% 42 of 103 11 of 17 13 of 15 38 of 96 8 of 13 20 of 26
Luan Lacerda 28 of 64 43% 16 of 42 9 of 19 3 of 3 25 of 61 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 30 of 60 50% 17 of 41 4 of 8 9 of 11 19 of 43 8 of 13 3 of 4
Luan Lacerda 17 of 34 50% 11 of 24 5 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 36 of 75 48% 25 of 62 7 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 53 0 of 0 17 of 22
Luan Lacerda 11 of 30 36% 5 of 18 4 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Blackshear, impressed by his toughness and performance in his loss to Fareed. He thinks Blackshear is better than his winless UFC record and can defend Lacerda's takedowns, noting Lacerda is not the wrestler Fareed was. Angelo acknowledges Lacerda is dangerous everywhere but believes Blackshear's speed and accuracy will be key. He placed a $20 bet on Blackshear at +111.

Bet $20 on Blackshear moneyline at +111.
"I think Damon's gonna win this fight I think he's better than his winless UFC record"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lacerda looked like a problem in his debut against Stamann, showing strong takedown defense and striking. Cody highlights Blackshear's poor takedown defense and inability to get back to his feet. He thinks Lacerda's physicality and grappling will be too much, and that -150 is fair.

"minus 150 seems more than fair for Luan lucerta in this spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Connor fully agrees with Zane, praising Lacerda's assertiveness and well-rounded skills. He compares Lacerda favorably to a more aggressive version of Hacran Dias, noting that Lacerda knows how to lead and break opponents down methodically. Connor believes Blackshear's lack of striking comfort and tendency to give up the initiative will be exploited by Lacerda's pressure and takedowns.

"I just I really like the look of lasserta"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Daniel picks Lacerda, praising his elite Jiu-Jitsu and ability to sweep and take backs. He notes that Blackshear is explosive and athletic but makes defensive mistakes and puts himself in deep submissions. He believes Lacerda's consistency and grappling will be the difference, and he wouldn't be surprised by a submission win.

"pure pic lacera and I cannot wait"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Jacob picks Lacerda, believing he is the better striker with more power and Muay Thai kicks. He thinks Lacerda is next level on the ground and Blackshear will be outclassed everywhere. Jacob notes Lacerda struggled against Cody's elusive style but Blackshear will be more in front of him. He does not see a finish but expects Lacerda to out-grapple and out-strike Blackshear to win a decision.

"I absolutely have viserada in this fight I believe in the Striking he's a better Striker he's a more powerful Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lacerda is a BJJ black belt who gets most of his work done on the mat with submissions. Blackshear has cardio issues and his efficiency drops after the first two rounds. Lacerda will land takedowns, establish dominant control, and find a submission in the latter half of the fight.

submission round 2
"give me Luan lacerda via submission let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda confidently, calling him the most value on the card at -150. He notes Lacerda's strong grappling and physicality, and that Blackshear cannot fight off his back. Paul recalls Lacerda's impressive UFC debut against Cody Stamann, where he nearly won. He thinks Lacerda's second fight will show an even better version, and that he has the tools to submit or dominate Blackshear.

"I feel like Lucerne is probably the most value on the card at -150 to be honest with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru leans towards Luan Lacerda, acknowledging it's a tough matchup to predict. He notes Lacerda had a competitive fight with Cody Stamann, a tough veteran, and that Lacerda is more talented and had momentum coming into the UFC. He also mentions that Blackshear had a close fight with Farid Basharat and made big mistakes. The Guru thinks Lacerda will mix in grappling and get takedowns, but warns that Blackshear could win by finish as an underdog.

"I am going to lean towards lacerda because he was doing... he did okay against Cody stamen"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Lacerda based on his assertive, front-foot style and well-rounded game. He notes that Blackshear is a good scrambler but tends to let opponents be first, which is dangerous against Lacerda's pressure. Lacerda's solid Muay Thai, power, and wrestling (he even took down Kody Stamann) should allow him to control the fight. Zane believes Blackshear's passive approach will lead to him being outworked and outgrappled.

"luon lasserta is not a fighter you want to let be first"
Luan Lacerda - Fight History
LOSS vs Hecher Sosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luan Lacerda 0 62 of 168 36% 72 of 182 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:06
Hecher Sosa 0 104 of 221 47% 137 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luan Lacerda 0 19 of 43 44% 22 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:44
Hecher Sosa 0 22 of 50 44% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Luan Lacerda 0 23 of 64 35% 24 of 67 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
Hecher Sosa 0 42 of 90 46% 49 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Luan Lacerda 0 20 of 61 32% 26 of 68 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:48
Hecher Sosa 0 40 of 81 49% 55 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luan Lacerda 62 of 168 36% 35 of 118 22 of 44 5 of 6 53 of 150 9 of 18 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 104 of 221 47% 67 of 170 25 of 37 12 of 14 88 of 189 16 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luan Lacerda 19 of 43 44% 9 of 24 7 of 15 3 of 4 13 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 22 of 50 44% 15 of 37 2 of 8 5 of 5 20 of 44 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Luan Lacerda 23 of 64 35% 15 of 48 8 of 16 0 of 0 22 of 60 1 of 4 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 42 of 90 46% 25 of 68 13 of 17 4 of 5 34 of 80 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Luan Lacerda 20 of 61 32% 11 of 46 7 of 13 2 of 2 18 of 54 2 of 7 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 40 of 81 49% 27 of 65 10 of 12 3 of 4 34 of 65 6 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Angelo picks Hecher Sosa confidently, praising his clean striking, range management, and leg kicks. He notes that Luan Lacerda is a dangerous grappler but Sosa's takedown defense should be good enough. He thinks Sosa will be the much better striker and should win, calling the -230 line a potential bargain.

"So, Hetch is going to be the pick. ... minus 230 might be like, 'Damn, dude, that was the bargain of the card.'"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Big Brady picks Hecher Sosa to win by second-round knockout. He praises Sosa's well-rounded game, including solid striking and grappling, and notes his impressive Contender Series performance. He questions Lacerda's cardio and durability, calling him 'submission or bust' and expecting Sosa to dictate the fight on the feet and eventually knock him out.

"Give me Hector Souza to win this fight. I'll take him going to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Cody picks Sosa confidently, citing his regional success, well-rounded game, and durability. He notes Lacerda's poor performance against Simon Olivera and lack of improvement. He expects Sosa to take him down and dominate.

"I like Hector Sosa. All I do."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Lacerda. He describes Sosa as awkward and ropey, with poor technical know-how. He believes Lacerda's aggression will be too much for Sosa, who is not used to facing fighters who are willing to engage. Connor calls it a bad bantamweight fight.

Sosa opened at -200, currently -240; Lacerda opened at +170, currently +205
"Yeah, that sounds about right to me. Yeah. I got to take Lacerda, but this is, yeah, not interesting for Bantam weight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

James picks Hecher Sosa to win inside the distance, citing his well-rounded game and ability to adapt. He notes Lacerda's submission threat but believes Sosa's strength and defensive wrestling will prevail. He expects Sosa to finish Lacerda, who has been finished in his losses.

"I got Hetcha Sosa for the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

The host favors Sosa due to his well-roundedness and ability to shut down Lacerda's submission game. He expects Sosa to outstrike Lacerda and take him down, where he can land damage and avoid submissions. He predicts a decision win for Sosa, noting that Lacerda's only real threat is submissions, which Sosa can neutralize.

"I like Sosa a fair deal here. I feel like he dominates. I feel like he shuts down Lerta's submission game."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Paul picks Sosa, noting his impressive wins and readiness for the UFC. He thinks Lacerda is a step down in competition. He expects Sosa to win.

"Everything's pointing towards this guy being ready to compete in the UFC."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Hecher Sosa

The Guru picks Hecher Sosa, citing his recent TKO wins and physicality advantage. He believes Sosa is entering his prime and that Lacerda has been unimpressive in the UFC, with losses to Damon Blackshear and Cody Stamann. He predicts a competitive decision, 29-28.

"I am going to go with Hecher Sosa... by a competitive decision, 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Luan Lacerda, noting that Hecher Sosa is a mediocre athlete who throws single strikes with little defense. He believes Lacerda's functional aggression will overwhelm Sosa, who is used to being the bigger fighter. Zane sees Lacerda as more willing to throw shots and take advantage of Sosa's lack of combination work.

Sosa opened at -200, currently -240; Lacerda opened at +170, currently +205
"I got to take Lacerda, but this is, yeah, not interesting for Bantam weight."
Submission R2 3:55 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luan Lacerda 0 24 of 39 61% 60 of 85 3 of 4 75% 1 0 6:06
Saimon Oliveira 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 2 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luan Lacerda 0 10 of 20 50% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Saimon Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 14 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:58
2 Luan Lacerda 0 14 of 19 73% 34 of 43 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:28
Saimon Oliveira 0 15 of 26 57% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luan Lacerda 24 of 39 61% 13 of 26 10 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 13 6 of 8 12 of 18
Saimon Oliveira 21 of 34 61% 14 of 21 3 of 7 4 of 6 8 of 17 2 of 3 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luan Lacerda 10 of 20 50% 3 of 11 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 6 6 of 8 3 of 6
Saimon Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 1 of 1 3 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luan Lacerda 14 of 19 73% 10 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 12
Saimon Oliveira 15 of 26 57% 13 of 20 0 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.

odds might be a discount
"Luan Lacerda is the pick. I hate the layoff, but he's fighting a suck."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.

"I got to go Lera here by default. I mean, you know, I'm not picking Simon Oliver to beat literally anybody in the UFC."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.

"I'll take low on Lerta."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.

inside the distance (no value at -180), under 1.5 rounds (+120)
"I kind of like Luan Lerta to win this one. He's minus 245 favorite. So, I can't really do business with him at that price tag."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.

Lacerda by submission
"I'm going to go Lacerda. I think he probably wraps up a submission here and forces the tap from Oliveira, but very tough to trust him at minus 260 considering the long layoff."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"Luan Lasser is a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Lan Lerta getting this one done. I think he's likely to get a finish here by TKO or submission in the later rounds."
TKO (punches) R2 3:54 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 66 of 135 48% 85 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:14
Luan Lacerda 0 28 of 64 43% 31 of 67 1 of 4 25% 1 1 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 30 of 60 50% 44 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
Luan Lacerda 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 36 of 75 48% 41 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:45
Luan Lacerda 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 66 of 135 48% 42 of 103 11 of 17 13 of 15 38 of 96 8 of 13 20 of 26
Luan Lacerda 28 of 64 43% 16 of 42 9 of 19 3 of 3 25 of 61 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 30 of 60 50% 17 of 41 4 of 8 9 of 11 19 of 43 8 of 13 3 of 4
Luan Lacerda 17 of 34 50% 11 of 24 5 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 36 of 75 48% 25 of 62 7 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 53 0 of 0 17 of 22
Luan Lacerda 11 of 30 36% 5 of 18 4 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Blackshear, impressed by his toughness and performance in his loss to Fareed. He thinks Blackshear is better than his winless UFC record and can defend Lacerda's takedowns, noting Lacerda is not the wrestler Fareed was. Angelo acknowledges Lacerda is dangerous everywhere but believes Blackshear's speed and accuracy will be key. He placed a $20 bet on Blackshear at +111.

Bet $20 on Blackshear moneyline at +111.
"I think Damon's gonna win this fight I think he's better than his winless UFC record"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lacerda looked like a problem in his debut against Stamann, showing strong takedown defense and striking. Cody highlights Blackshear's poor takedown defense and inability to get back to his feet. He thinks Lacerda's physicality and grappling will be too much, and that -150 is fair.

"minus 150 seems more than fair for Luan lucerta in this spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Connor fully agrees with Zane, praising Lacerda's assertiveness and well-rounded skills. He compares Lacerda favorably to a more aggressive version of Hacran Dias, noting that Lacerda knows how to lead and break opponents down methodically. Connor believes Blackshear's lack of striking comfort and tendency to give up the initiative will be exploited by Lacerda's pressure and takedowns.

"I just I really like the look of lasserta"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Daniel picks Lacerda, praising his elite Jiu-Jitsu and ability to sweep and take backs. He notes that Blackshear is explosive and athletic but makes defensive mistakes and puts himself in deep submissions. He believes Lacerda's consistency and grappling will be the difference, and he wouldn't be surprised by a submission win.

"pure pic lacera and I cannot wait"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Jacob picks Lacerda, believing he is the better striker with more power and Muay Thai kicks. He thinks Lacerda is next level on the ground and Blackshear will be outclassed everywhere. Jacob notes Lacerda struggled against Cody's elusive style but Blackshear will be more in front of him. He does not see a finish but expects Lacerda to out-grapple and out-strike Blackshear to win a decision.

"I absolutely have viserada in this fight I believe in the Striking he's a better Striker he's a more powerful Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lacerda is a BJJ black belt who gets most of his work done on the mat with submissions. Blackshear has cardio issues and his efficiency drops after the first two rounds. Lacerda will land takedowns, establish dominant control, and find a submission in the latter half of the fight.

submission round 2
"give me Luan lacerda via submission let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda confidently, calling him the most value on the card at -150. He notes Lacerda's strong grappling and physicality, and that Blackshear cannot fight off his back. Paul recalls Lacerda's impressive UFC debut against Cody Stamann, where he nearly won. He thinks Lacerda's second fight will show an even better version, and that he has the tools to submit or dominate Blackshear.

"I feel like Lucerne is probably the most value on the card at -150 to be honest with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru leans towards Luan Lacerda, acknowledging it's a tough matchup to predict. He notes Lacerda had a competitive fight with Cody Stamann, a tough veteran, and that Lacerda is more talented and had momentum coming into the UFC. He also mentions that Blackshear had a close fight with Farid Basharat and made big mistakes. The Guru thinks Lacerda will mix in grappling and get takedowns, but warns that Blackshear could win by finish as an underdog.

"I am going to lean towards lacerda because he was doing... he did okay against Cody stamen"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Lacerda based on his assertive, front-foot style and well-rounded game. He notes that Blackshear is a good scrambler but tends to let opponents be first, which is dangerous against Lacerda's pressure. Lacerda's solid Muay Thai, power, and wrestling (he even took down Kody Stamann) should allow him to control the fight. Zane believes Blackshear's passive approach will lead to him being outworked and outgrappled.

"luon lasserta is not a fighter you want to let be first"
LOSS vs Cody Stamann
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Stamann 0 80 of 181 44% 85 of 187 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Luan Lacerda 0 103 of 189 54% 108 of 195 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Stamann 0 29 of 59 49% 29 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Luan Lacerda 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Cody Stamann 0 33 of 78 42% 33 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luan Lacerda 0 52 of 87 59% 52 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Cody Stamann 0 18 of 44 40% 23 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:34
Luan Lacerda 0 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Stamann 80 of 181 44% 31 of 113 44 of 61 5 of 7 80 of 181 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 103 of 189 54% 62 of 139 29 of 38 12 of 12 101 of 186 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Stamann 29 of 59 49% 9 of 33 17 of 22 3 of 4 29 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 31 of 66 46% 17 of 49 8 of 11 6 of 6 31 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cody Stamann 33 of 78 42% 17 of 53 15 of 23 1 of 2 33 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 52 of 87 59% 31 of 63 17 of 20 4 of 4 50 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Cody Stamann 18 of 44 40% 5 of 27 12 of 16 1 of 1 18 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Big Brady picks Cody Stamann as the rightful favorite due to fighting much better competition. He notes Lacerda has a legit BJJ black belt but often pulls guard and rolls for submissions, which doesn't work as well in the UFC. He thinks Lacerda won't be able to get takedowns and will have to rely on a Hail Mary submission. Stamann has been submitted twice but against elite grapplers like Sterling and Said. He predicts a decision win for Stamann.

"I gotta go stand in here I think he's the rightful favorite fighting the better competition being the minute winner but lacerda is a dangerous guy for what it's worth but give me a statement for the I'll say decision …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody picks Cody Stamann confidently, noting his wrestling, cardio, and versatility. He says Stamann is a generalist who can do everything well, while Lacerda is a one-dimensional BJJ specialist. He thinks Stamann will neutralize Lacerda's grappling and win on the feet. He mentions Stamann's experience against top competition and his ability to avoid submissions.

mentions Lacerda's submission threat; says Stamann's wrestling is key
"I like Cody's stadium and I actually like him a decent amount uh he's extremely professional good shape shows up got skills everywhere"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Connor agrees, noting Lacerda is not proactive and Stamann is a tough gatekeeper. Lacerda's style is janky and he may not be able to exploit Stamann's flaws.

"Cody Stamann is a tough dude to take apart."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul picks Cody Stamann, noting his wrestling and striking advantages. He says Stamann is a safe bet among the big favorites on the card. He mentions Lacerda's BJJ is dangerous but thinks Stamann will avoid submissions and win a decision. He says Stamann's experience and versatility will be too much.

mentions Lacerda's submission threat; says Stamann is one of the safer guys
"stamen seems like one of the safer guys going I would say"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

The Guru picks Stamann despite acknowledging the risk of decline. He notes Stamann's losses are to top bantamweights like Sterling, Develashvili, and Rivera, and he beat Eddie Wineland convincingly. At 33, Stamann is still hungry and training at Extreme Couture. The Guru believes Lacerda is not on the level of Sayed or Song to submit Stamann, and that Stamann's wrestling and pressure will carry him to a 29-28 decision after surviving an early bad situation.

"I'm going with Cody stamen this is a dangerous one to pick because you know we never really know when a guy like Cody stamen's really going to start showing that decline"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Zane picks Stamann because Lacerda is too passive and slow-paced. Stamann is a good wrestler who can enforce his game. Lacerda's submissions come from wrestling, but he won't outwrestle Stamann. Stamann is tough and durable.

"I'm going to take Cody Stamann."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Blackshear, impressed by his toughness and performance in his loss to Fareed. He thinks Blackshear is better than his winless UFC record and can defend Lacerda's takedowns, noting Lacerda is not the wrestler Fareed was. Angelo acknowledges Lacerda is dangerous everywhere but believes Blackshear's speed and accuracy will be key. He placed a $20 bet on Blackshear at +111.

Bet $20 on Blackshear moneyline at +111.
"I think Damon's gonna win this fight I think he's better than his winless UFC record"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lacerda looked like a problem in his debut against Stamann, showing strong takedown defense and striking. Cody highlights Blackshear's poor takedown defense and inability to get back to his feet. He thinks Lacerda's physicality and grappling will be too much, and that -150 is fair.

"minus 150 seems more than fair for Luan lucerta in this spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Connor fully agrees with Zane, praising Lacerda's assertiveness and well-rounded skills. He compares Lacerda favorably to a more aggressive version of Hacran Dias, noting that Lacerda knows how to lead and break opponents down methodically. Connor believes Blackshear's lack of striking comfort and tendency to give up the initiative will be exploited by Lacerda's pressure and takedowns.

"I just I really like the look of lasserta"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Daniel picks Lacerda, praising his elite Jiu-Jitsu and ability to sweep and take backs. He notes that Blackshear is explosive and athletic but makes defensive mistakes and puts himself in deep submissions. He believes Lacerda's consistency and grappling will be the difference, and he wouldn't be surprised by a submission win.

"pure pic lacera and I cannot wait"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Jacob picks Lacerda, believing he is the better striker with more power and Muay Thai kicks. He thinks Lacerda is next level on the ground and Blackshear will be outclassed everywhere. Jacob notes Lacerda struggled against Cody's elusive style but Blackshear will be more in front of him. He does not see a finish but expects Lacerda to out-grapple and out-strike Blackshear to win a decision.

"I absolutely have viserada in this fight I believe in the Striking he's a better Striker he's a more powerful Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lacerda is a BJJ black belt who gets most of his work done on the mat with submissions. Blackshear has cardio issues and his efficiency drops after the first two rounds. Lacerda will land takedowns, establish dominant control, and find a submission in the latter half of the fight.

submission round 2
"give me Luan lacerda via submission let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda confidently, calling him the most value on the card at -150. He notes Lacerda's strong grappling and physicality, and that Blackshear cannot fight off his back. Paul recalls Lacerda's impressive UFC debut against Cody Stamann, where he nearly won. He thinks Lacerda's second fight will show an even better version, and that he has the tools to submit or dominate Blackshear.

"I feel like Lucerne is probably the most value on the card at -150 to be honest with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru leans towards Luan Lacerda, acknowledging it's a tough matchup to predict. He notes Lacerda had a competitive fight with Cody Stamann, a tough veteran, and that Lacerda is more talented and had momentum coming into the UFC. He also mentions that Blackshear had a close fight with Farid Basharat and made big mistakes. The Guru thinks Lacerda will mix in grappling and get takedowns, but warns that Blackshear could win by finish as an underdog.

"I am going to lean towards lacerda because he was doing... he did okay against Cody stamen"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Lacerda based on his assertive, front-foot style and well-rounded game. He notes that Blackshear is a good scrambler but tends to let opponents be first, which is dangerous against Lacerda's pressure. Lacerda's solid Muay Thai, power, and wrestling (he even took down Kody Stamann) should allow him to control the fight. Zane believes Blackshear's passive approach will lead to him being outworked and outgrappled.

"luon lasserta is not a fighter you want to let be first"