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Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 42
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
5.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.22 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
34.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Derek Brunson
3.51 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
3.14 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Dricus du Plessis
Moneyline
FanDuel -225
KO/TKO
BetRivers +140
Submission
BetRivers +510
Decision
FanDuel +500
Derek Brunson
Moneyline
Caesars +200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
FanDuel +420
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 37 of 47 78% 529 of 567 12 of 17 70% 0 0 21:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 131 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:47
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 2 0% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 5 80% 79 of 81 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:47
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 19 of 22 86% 156 of 164 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:46
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 6 66% 76 of 85 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:26
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 20 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 9 of 12 75% 87 of 100 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 13 of 29 44% 10 of 24 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 37 of 47 78% 28 of 36 3 of 5 6 of 6 12 of 19 0 of 0 25 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 5 80% 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Dricus du Plessis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 19 of 22 86% 19 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 22
4 Dricus du Plessis 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 20 50% 8 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)

Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.

"I am going to pick Hamzot, though. I think the skill gap is wider than most people think it is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.

Chimaev by submission, round 1
"Give me Hamzad to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.

Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237; du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202
"I think Khamzat Chimaev is going to be champion by the end of the week. And I'm pretty certain of that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.

submission within two rounds
"I think he's going to struggle with the wrestling top control and submission game of Chamay, which should lead to Hamzat earning that gold and finding the submission within two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.

TKO round 3 or 4; Dricus du Plessis wins by TKO up against the cage; less than 21.5 round one significant strikes for du Plessis (from PrizePicks segment)
"I think Drikus is going to survive round one and finish him. Driers has Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. I think he has the right mindset for this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.

du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202; Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237
"I'm still going to pick Dricus. I just think it's fun to pick Dricus. I want Dricus to win."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 147 of 314 46% 149 of 316 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 128 of 263 48% 128 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 79 49% 39 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 21 of 66 31% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 36 of 64 56% 36 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 147 of 314 46% 50 of 193 45 of 59 52 of 62 147 of 314 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 128 of 263 48% 90 of 212 29 of 41 9 of 10 128 of 263 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 20 of 45 44% 5 of 25 6 of 10 9 of 10 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 16 of 49 32% 10 of 41 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 60 51% 7 of 31 7 of 10 17 of 19 31 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 54 53% 15 of 35 8 of 13 6 of 6 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 79 49% 11 of 46 14 of 15 14 of 18 39 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 24 of 47 51% 18 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 21 of 66 31% 13 of 54 5 of 7 3 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 28 of 51 54% 23 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0 28 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 36 of 64 56% 14 of 37 13 of 17 9 of 10 36 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 31 of 62 50% 24 of 54 6 of 7 1 of 1 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.

I think these odds are wide I like I think the opener was a lot more accurate
"gimme drus here I think is going to win a close and competitive decision in this one once more and and uh yeah drus SP decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.

Same odds as Zane. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I just trust Dricus to make an adaptation and I trust Sean Strickland to never ever do that."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.

"So who youall got in the rematch between dricus dupy and Sean Strickland going down this weekend at UFC 312"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.

decision
"I think if Strickland can pick it up a little bit more he should be able to utilize his pace and his pressure as effectively as we've seen him do in the past and that will allow him to really …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.

Dricus du Plessis opened at -190, currently -196; Strickland opened at +167, currently +172. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I think you basically have to pick Dricus."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 173 of 408 42% 183 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 137 of 354 38% 140 of 358 6 of 11 54% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 34 of 75 45% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 18 of 51 35% 19 of 52 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:28
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 62 35% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 87 35% 31 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 85 38% 34 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:18
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 53 of 99 53% 53 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 35 of 86 40% 35 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 173 of 408 42% 157 of 387 10 of 15 6 of 6 173 of 408 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 137 of 354 38% 81 of 283 32 of 37 24 of 34 134 of 348 3 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 34 of 75 45% 28 of 67 2 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 18 of 51 35% 8 of 38 3 of 3 7 of 10 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 62 35% 20 of 59 1 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 26 of 60 43% 11 of 42 9 of 9 6 of 9 25 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 87 35% 29 of 84 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 84 34% 13 of 64 10 of 12 6 of 8 28 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 85 38% 32 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0 33 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 73 39% 22 of 62 4 of 6 3 of 5 28 of 69 1 of 3 0 of 1
5 Dricus du Plessis 53 of 99 53% 48 of 93 4 of 5 1 of 1 53 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 35 of 86 40% 27 of 77 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)

Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)

The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.

Will monitor line movement; may bet on du Plessis
"I am going to lean drus here I think if we're looking at the two of these Fighters we're looking at their skill sets and their body of work"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.

first or second round knockout
"I'm going drus by first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.

Strickland late (round 4 or 5) at +1500 and +2100 respectively
"I think Sean Strickland wins... it's a good fight that Sean Strickland wins down the stretch."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.

"I'm picking DDP too and I will say you know for a lot of people they're like oh I still worried about the cardio because he gased out in like one fight early in his UFC span and I don't …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.

"I took him in the spot at plus 125 I put two units on it um I think it should be a pick them"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.

"I'm gonna take a guy who we is he good Gumby is DDP good yet I know he beat Robert Whitaker but is he good Crush crushed Robert Whitaker I'm taking he decimated Robert Whitaker this is I think a …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.

"my prediction is going to be dricker dupy retains his title and he's going to win the fight via decision or or by KO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.

round 4-5 TKO, decision victory
"give me Sean Strickland R for round five TKO and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.

du Plessis round 1 KO at +1000, du Plessis KO at +300, Strickland round 4 at +1500, Strickland round 5 at +2100
"Strickland will be the official pick but I think the prop side is how I'm going to attack this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.

TKO, round 2
"drias dupi in my opinion is going to win this fight by TKO or submission I see this happening at some point in the second round or maybe late in the first"
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
WIN vs Derek Brunson
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
WIN vs Brad Tavares
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 82 of 150 54% 98 of 167 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:01
Brad Tavares 0 113 of 212 53% 123 of 222 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 13 76% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
Brad Tavares 0 14 of 26 53% 23 of 35 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:18
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Brad Tavares 0 39 of 75 52% 39 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 78 50% 40 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 60 of 111 54% 61 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 82 of 150 54% 55 of 113 21 of 31 6 of 6 69 of 132 12 of 16 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 113 of 212 53% 79 of 169 17 of 21 17 of 22 97 of 192 14 of 18 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 13 76% 8 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 9 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2
2 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 59 55% 19 of 41 10 of 14 4 of 4 28 of 52 5 of 7 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 39 of 75 52% 28 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 8 33 of 66 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 78 50% 28 of 62 9 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 72 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 60 of 111 54% 41 of 89 10 of 12 9 of 10 55 of 106 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.

"I do think i'm leaning towards dracus here this is a no bet fight for me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.

du Plessis by first round knockout
"give me duplicity to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.

"I'm gonna go with the places to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.

Missed the line; no bet at -155; would have bet at plus money.
"my pick is drika's duplicity... i missed the line on drikas... minus 155 i'm no longer interested"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.

du Plessis by KO at +165 to +185
"i think i'm going to end up on the duplex c side here i do think uh his speed will eventually catch up to tavares"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.

"I'm going with two pluses to get the job done as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.

submission in round 2
"i can see him getting a guillotine finish over brad tavares in the second round of this contest"
Derek Brunson - Fight History
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
KO (elbows) R2 4:29 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 55 of 89 61% 61 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 1 43 of 97 44% 48 of 103 3 of 13 23% 1 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derek Brunson 1 20 of 41 48% 25 of 46 2 of 9 22% 1 0 2:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 39 of 54 72% 43 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 55 of 89 61% 42 of 75 8 of 8 5 of 6 38 of 71 12 of 13 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 43 of 97 44% 25 of 69 12 of 20 6 of 8 41 of 89 1 of 4 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 16 of 35 45% 13 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 20 of 41 48% 12 of 30 6 of 9 2 of 2 18 of 35 1 of 3 1 of 3
2 Jared Cannonier 39 of 54 72% 29 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 43 5 of 6 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 23 of 56 41% 13 of 39 6 of 11 4 of 6 23 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Cannonier, believing he can defend Brunson's takedowns and land his power shots. He notes that even when taken down, Cannonier has knocked out high-level grapplers like Hermansson and Branch. He questions Brunson's chin and thinks Kelvin Gastelum, a better wrestler, couldn't keep Cannonier down.

"i've got to go with jared here i totally understand derrick brunson's wrestling is a threat but i like jared cannanier to defend those takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady believes Cannonier's takedown defense at middleweight is excellent (85%), and he will be able to stuff Brunson's takedowns and get back up if taken down. He notes Brunson is chinny and has been knocked out five times, and Cannonier has the power to knock him out. He predicts Cannonier will end Brunson's winning streak with a first round knockout.

Cannonier by first round knockout
"i think cannonier ends the streak here for brunson... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Brunson's wins are over grapplers and that Cannonier is a tough takedown. He highlights Cannonier's strength and cardio, and expects Brunson to get desperate and clipped. He thinks the line should be closer to -250.

"i think it's a no-brainer cannon your pick as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier to knock out Derek Brunson. He believes Cannonier's takedown defense has improved and that he will stuff Brunson's takedowns and put pressure on him. Levi notes that Brunson's opponents haven't been top-level and that Brunson has been knocked out multiple times. He is not crazy about the price and will probably pass on betting, but he thinks Cannonier wins.

pass on betting due to price
"I do think that cannonier stuffs these takedowns and knocks out derrick brunson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has excellent takedown defense and knockout power. Brunson's wins have come against opponents with cardio or grappling issues, and he gets rocked in every fight. Cannonier should stuff takedowns and land a knockout. Brunson's grappling advantage won't be enough to hold Cannonier down. Expect a second-round KO.

Cannonier by KO in round 2; hefty wager expected
"i really like jared kadenier in this spot you know even though brunson's averaging 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and even though he's riding this five-fight winning streak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul thinks Brunson's recent wins are over stylistically favorable opponents and that Cannonier's takedown defense and power will be too much. He notes Cannonier stuffed takedowns from Whittaker and Gastelum, and that Brunson's chin is suspect. He expects Cannonier to knock Brunson out.

"i think this is when derek brunson's bad chin shows back up again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier by third-round KO, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and power. He believes Brunson will slow down after failing takedowns and get caught with a left hook.

third round ko left hook
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon in here i think he's gonna ko derek branson"
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 43 of 93 46% 226 of 323 6 of 12 50% 1 0 16:55
Kevin Holland 0 36 of 74 48% 190 of 236 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 35 40% 63 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:29
Kevin Holland 0 3 of 6 50% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 7 of 20 35% 16 of 30 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:09
Kevin Holland 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 11 54% 54 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
Kevin Holland 0 2 of 5 40% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 12 66% 51 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:46
Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 47 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 15 53% 42 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:14
Kevin Holland 0 10 of 20 50% 56 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 43 of 93 46% 28 of 74 7 of 10 8 of 9 14 of 43 10 of 10 19 of 40
Kevin Holland 36 of 74 48% 28 of 64 2 of 4 6 of 6 29 of 64 5 of 7 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 35 40% 12 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 28
Kevin Holland 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 2
Kevin Holland 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Kevin Holland 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Derek Brunson 8 of 12 66% 5 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 2
Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Derek Brunson 8 of 15 53% 2 of 8 2 of 3 4 of 4 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 10 of 20 50% 7 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland

Round 1
Quicker than expected, we have reached the main event of the evening. At stake is a possible place as a top contender, and two men on a combined eight-fight win streak look to end the other’s success. Brunson (21-7, 12-5 UFC) will face Holland (21-5, 8-2 UFC), and despite Holland’s ribbing, there is no bad blood as the two middleweights decide to touch gloves in front of referee Herb Dean. Holland reaches out with his hand, and he jumps back and gets kicked midair. Holland scores a fast front kick on the chin, and he ducks out of the way as Brunson is coming out throwing haymakers. Holland slips and falls to his back, and Brunson leaps on top to attack. “Trailblazer” ties Brunson up from his back with a body triangle, and Brunson does not mind as he lands a few punches from above. Holland slashes with elbows from below, but the far more emphatic punches are Brunson’s as they have an appreciable effect. Brunson works elbows as Holland looks to set up a submission, and the strikes break up the attempt without issue. Brunson throws heavy shots as he maintains heavy top pressure, and Holland pushes off only to get warned for nearly raking Brunson’s eye. Holland keeps his guard closed as Brunson pounds on him, and Holland talks to him and responds with short, hacking elbows. Holland boxes the ears and throws his legs up to try something, but Brunson ignores it and continues to hammer away on him. Holland is chattering away at him the entire time, and Brunson appears composed and lands heavy shots that silence Holland for the briefest of moments. Holland continues to banter and tell Brunson to stop covering his mouth, and Brunson continues to rain down powerful shots. Holland jumps back up, and Brunson pushes him away right at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 2
Between rounds, Holland has a conversation with former lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov who is sitting in the stands. Holland laughs and smiles, and the fight clocks back in again. Holland whiffs with a huge right hand and a head kick, and Brunson walks forward and gets tagged with a left hand counter. Holland shouts to Nurmagomedov to tell him when Brunson’s takedown comes, and Brunson crashes forward into a clinch for a takedown attempt. Holland breaks free and lazily spins around, and he drills Brunson with a nasty right hand. Holland clips him again with a few punches, and Brunson falls across the cage. Brunson aims for a desperation takedown, lifting Holland’s leg up high in the air. Holland lands a few punches with his leg raised, and Brunson pops him with a right hand and lands an emphatic takedown. Holland surrenders mount quickly, only to roll for a leglock and allow Brunson to climb back into top position. In half guard, Brunson targets an arm-triangle choke, and looks to pass to mount or side control so he can finish the submission. Holland rolls but is pushed down and flattened on the canvas, where Brunson puts his full body weight from the other side and the choke is tight. Holland continues to talk even while firmly in the danger zone, and Brunson is in side control applying the choke. Holland rides out the submission that would put lesser fighters out, and miraculously powers out of the position and kicks off to stand back to his feet. Holland laughs and turns around, and when he throws a kick, Brunson picks him up and slams him down. Holland keeps talking to people out of the cage, asking for advice to stop takedowns. Brunson, in full guard, works him over with punches as Holland slaps and paws at him from beneath. Brunson postures up to land a few strikes, and he kicks off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 3
Holland is not dismayed by the results of the last rounds, and he comes out smiling and reaches out his left hand. Brunson flirts with a leg kick, and Holland smacks him with an overhand right counter. Brunson retreats and circles around the cage, and Holland walks him down and lands a crisp right hand. Brunson shoots in for a takedown, where he lifts Holland up and slams him down on the canvas. Holland throws his legs up for a triangle choke, and he turns it into an armbar but Brunson is savvy and able to get out of harm’s way. Holland is able to get Brunson to stand up, but Brunson wades through an upkick to lower himself back into Holland’s guard. Holland stays busy on his back with elbows and slaps, and Brunson’s workrate has slowed dramatically. Brunson sits up a few times with slowed punches, and Holland ties him up and looks to Dean for a standup. Holland ties up a body triangle and elbows Brunson a few times, but he does allow Brunson to land some punches as well. Brunson, whose strikes are slowing, lands some but not enough to stave off Dean. The shots are enough to keep the position, but Holland is consistently throwing palm strikes and elbows at high volume. Brunson grinds his elbow on Holland’s chin, and his ground-and-pound is sporadic but effective at racking up lengthy control time in the round. Brunson sits up to drop down a few punches, and he squeezes heavily from above while Holland tries and fails to kick off the fence. Brunson continues his grind-embracing approach until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 4
Holland opens up the round with a leg kick, and he backs away while Brunson pump-fakes with takedown attempts. Brunson lets loose a lazy leg kick, and two punches find their home on his chin as a response. Holland clips Brunson with a few punches, and Brunson falls forward to take the fight down. Holland backs off, and recklessly charges into the fray only to get tied up. Holland pushes him off, and gets pulled into a clinch where Brunson uppercuts him several times. Brunson pushes him into the fence and gets a takedown, where he lands in side control. Holland scrambles back to his feet, but Brunson drags him right back down and is in Holland’s closed guard. Holland is frustrated as Brunson calmly and methodically gives ground-and-pound, and when Brunson elbows him in the face, Holland loudly cheers for him. Dean asks Brunson to work a few times, and every time he says it, Brunson lands a punch or two from on top. Holland looks to kick off the fence, only to get pulled back away from it and eat strikes. Brunson’s top control is making Dean take a close look at standing the fight back up, as he claps for Brunson to continue working. Holland kicks off the fence and gets to his knee. He hops over to the fence, and Brunson follows him and mashes him into the wire. Brunson presses his full body weight into Holland’s chest, and he knees Holland a few times and puts his hands out of the cage for a moment. Dean admonishes him, and he apologizes. Holland fails to escape the clinch, and elects to slap Brunson a few times before the fourth round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 5
Holland offers a glove touch but Brunson ignores him to start off the final round. Holland picks his leg up to block a leg kick, and he stands still in the center of the cage while Brunson aims for angles. A front kick from Holland misses, and Brunson backs off and jabs him a few times. Brunson ducks down and clocks Holland with a left hand, and he may have hurt Holland but Holland wears it well and counters a leg kick with a left hand. Holland catches Brunson on the way in with a left hand, and when he leaps forward with a hook, Brunson ducks down and clinches up to take the fight down. The two land punches to the body in the clinch, and Holland knees him a few times for good measure. One of Holland’s strikes opened up a cut on Brunson’s eye, and Holland smells the blood and is excited by it. “Trailblazer” surges forward and takes Brunson down, and he is now the first fighter in UFC history to land a takedown on Brunson. Holland celebrates his work, but Brunson ties him up and locks him down so that little effective ground-and-pound can be levied. Holland postures up and lands a few punches, before lifting Brunson up to slam him down as if he were channeling his inner Quinton Jackson. Dean tells Holland that he will stand him up if he does not do anything, so he sits up and lands some shots. Brunson kicks him off, and he rushes forward for a takedown of his own to grind out the talkative kickboxer. Holland defends the first attempt but cannot stop the redoubled effort, as he slowly descends to the canvas where Brunson is lording over him punching him in the face. Dean already tells Brunson to do something, and Brunson does just that with elbows and punches. Holland pushes off the fence and giggles at Brunson, but Brunson is holding the position and winning the fight because of this strategy. Holland kicks off, and he walks away upset that he lost. With 10 seconds left, Holland appears to admit defeat as he turns his back and waves his hand in disgust. Brunson lands a punch as Holland is not paying attention, so Holland explodes with a flying knee and a hammerfist on the way down, and the final horn blares to end this 25-minute affair. The fight card comes to an inglorious end, but there is no ill will between the two middleweights. A big pay-per-view event comes over the horizon next week, although it has lost some luster as featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski tested positive for COVID-19 and the fight is off – this is likely why the Riddell-Gillespie fight was scratched on tonight’s card. We will be here for UFC 260, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-46, 49-46)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant, acknowledging the line is off and Brunson is the value side. He notes Holland has red flags in his takedown defense and cardio, but Brunson has been knocked out five times and may struggle to hold Holland down. Brady expects Holland to knock out Brunson in the second round, as Holland is dangerous off his back and has a steel chin. He says the KO prop at +160 is not a bad look.

Kevin Holland wins by KO in round 2; KO prop +160
"i'm going to take kevin hall to win by knockout i'm going to say he's going to be the sixth person to knock out derek brunson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, citing his creativity and unquantifiable skills. He acknowledges Brunson's improved composure but believes Holland's experience and talent will prevail. He notes Holland's overconfidence as a concern but still expects a spectacular finish. He mentions Holland's past injury in the Darren Stewart fight as a possible excuse for that poor performance.

Holland by something spectacular
"i'm gonna go with kevin holland to catch him with something opportunistic"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Brunson has rejuvenated his career at Sanford MMA, becoming more disciplined and conservative. He should have a wrestling advantage and can control Holland against the cage or on the ground. Holland's cardio is untested in five-round fights, and he showed flaws against Darren Stewart. Brunson's chin narrative is overblown; he's been more careful. Brunson by decision is the pick, with the decision prop at +365 offering value.

Brunson by decision (+365), over 2.5 rounds (-130)
"I like brunson man i like this brunson since he's moved over to stanford mma"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to beat Derek Brunson. He believes Holland has shown a good jiu-jitsu game off his back, which previous Brunson opponents lacked, and can work early for a TKO. He notes Brunson's tendency to crumble under trash talk, as seen against Israel Adesanya, and expects Brunson to shoot desperately and get caught. However, he admits concern because Brunson has a knack for pulling off upsets.

"kevin holland is going to beat derrick branson because derrick branson can't fight"
TKO (punches) R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 88 of 145 60% 107 of 164 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 35 of 72 48% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 50 58% 32 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:59
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 24 of 41 58% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 54 of 85 63% 69 of 100 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:01
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 11 of 31 35% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Derek Brunson 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 88 of 145 60% 58 of 106 15 of 21 15 of 18 53 of 95 9 of 17 26 of 33
Edmen Shahbazyan 35 of 72 48% 17 of 50 18 of 22 0 of 0 26 of 63 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 29 of 50 58% 12 of 29 8 of 10 9 of 11 24 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1
Edmen Shahbazyan 24 of 41 58% 11 of 24 13 of 17 0 of 0 16 of 33 8 of 8 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 54 of 85 63% 42 of 69 7 of 11 5 of 5 27 of 44 5 of 12 22 of 29
Edmen Shahbazyan 11 of 31 35% 6 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Round 1
We have rapidly reached the main event, which is a three-round middleweight tilt as two knockout artists in Brunson (20-7, 11-5 UFC) and Shahbazyan (11-0, 4-0 UFC) come to blows. Sharing 20 knockout wins across their 31 career triumphs, referee Herb Dean may have his work cut out for him in this abbreviated affair moved to the headliner spot on short notice. They have no interest in touching gloves, as Shahbazyan marches forward and takes a punch to the body. Brunson swings and misses with a low kick, and a body kick comes up mostly short. Shahbazyan leans down to land a punch to the body, and then goes for another as Brunson backs off. They come together, and Shahbazyan clips Brunson with a short check hook. Shahbazyan changes levels briefly, and Brunson grabs hold of his neck, so “The Golden Boy” breaks free and disengages. Shahbazyan whips a head kick up high that comes up shy of the mark, and a right hand that follows catches Brunson standing. Brunson tries to get a few more kicks off, and Shahbazyan circles to his left and sneaks in a left hand. Brunson charges at him with a few punches, only to change levels and go after a takedown. Shahbazyan rips a few elbows to the side of Brunson’s head, but Brunson tosses him down anyway. Shahbazyan tries to get back to his feet, and avoids damage while getting to his knees. When he stands up, Brunson mashes him on the fence, so Shahbazyan delivers a big right hand that forces a break. Shahbazyan loads up on a few more rights, and Brunson backs off to shoot for a takedown. Shahbazyan nails him a few more times, and Brunson wobbles but keeps his composure as he eats these power shots. Shahbazyan ends the night well with a groin kick, and Brunson shrugs it off so there is not much of a pause. Brunson rushes in with looping hooks and elbows, and Shahbazyan backs away to reconsider his position. Brunson comes forward to implement a takedown, and Shahbazyan catches him on the chin with a knee. Brunson is not concerned, and he keeps pushing heavy, but Shahbazyan shoves him away. Brunson leads with a knee and a left hand, so Shahbazyan gives it back with a knee to the body and a right of his own. Brunson slaps low with a kick, and goes to the body, so Shahbazyan slings a few punches and an elbow as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
Perhaps surprising to some, we see a second round. Shahbazyan leads off with a head kick, and Brunson eats it like a steak and tries to throw back. Shahbazyan counters that offense with a right hook, and Brunson returns fire with a left hook. Shahbazyan overextends himself with a looping hook, allowing Brunson to take his leg and lift him up, setting Shahbazyan on his back. Shahbazyan springs right back up without effort, and in the clinch, we hear someone landed a cup shot. Neither pay it any mind, and they separate, which allows Brunson to kick to the body. When Shahbazyan advances, Brunson holds his fingers outstretched and jabs Shahbazyan in the eye, so Dean pauses the fight. On the break, Dean warns both fighters to keep track of their fingers, and Brunson sticks out a right hand to re-introduce it to Shahbazyan’s face. Shahbazyan digs him to the body with a kick that nearly makes Brunson double over, and as he tries to pour it on, Brunson counters him and bullies him against the fence. Brunson separates to string together a heavy series of punches, and he punctuates it with a knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a pair of enormous right hands, and they whiz by the bleach blonde hair of Brunson. Shahbazyan’s punches are more loose now, and his one-two is labored as Brunson ignores it. Brunson pressures him against the fence again, and lands a few shots while keeping his weight on the undefeated fighter. Brunson scoops the legs out and puts Shahbazyan down, where he drops down some powerful hammerfists as he takes side control. Shahbazyan rolls to his stomach, and Brunson keeps him trapped with punches, pounding on him while Shahbazyan twists and turns. Brunson is in half guard raining down punches, and Shahbazyan eats practically all of them as he is trapped on his back. Brunson postures up to hack at Shahbazyan with a nasty elbow, and Shahbazyan’s eyebrow is split wide open. The horn sounds, and when Shahbazyan sits on his stool between rounds, he nearly falls off as Dean calls in the doctor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brunson

Round 3
Shahbazyan may be hurt, but the cut is not in a bad enough spot to end the fight, so he requests to continue. Brunson comes out firing with a leg kick and looks much fresher, as he chases Shahbazyan around the cage.
Brunson leaps forward with a few reaching punches, and he rips Shahbazyan off his feet and starts clubbing him in the face with sledgehammers. Only a few more need to come down before Dean has seen enough
, and Brunson has now handed “The Golden Boy” the first loss of his career in devastating fashion. That spells the end of this shortened fight night, so see you next week for more action!

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 0:26 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Brunson has been knocked out five times and is past his prime at 36, while Shahbazyan is a young 22-year-old beast with a high ceiling. He believes Shahbazyan will come out aggressively and touch Brunson's chin early, ending the fight in the first round. He mentions the line is off at -345 and suggests looking at inside the distance props.

inside the distance (-265), first round knockout
"i just see uh shabazzian ending this in the first round touching brunson on the chin"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel picks Shahbazyan, praising his complete skill set including boxing, grappling, and takedowns. He notes that Brunson leads with his chin up and that Shahbazyan throws straight, disciplined shots. He expects a first-round knockout, citing Shahbazyan's 10 first-round finishes and his handling of Brad Tavares.

first round knockout
"i say he comes out here and gets the knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

The host picks Brunson despite being an underdog, citing concerns about Shahbazyan's cardio and lack of experience in later rounds. He notes that Shahbazyan looked poor in the third round against Darren Stewart and that Brunson's wrestling and grinding style could neutralize Shahbazyan's early power. He also mentions the smaller cage favoring Brunson's clinch game and that the line has moved too far in Shahbazyan's favor.

under 1.5 rounds not mentioned; host says 'dog or pass' and prefers Brunson at +270
"I'm going to go with brunson here i'm going to go with brunson via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The host picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by brutal KO in the first round. He notes Shahbazyan's calmness, distance control, and takedown defense, while criticizing Derek Brunson's tendency to come forward with his chin exposed and get knocked out by top competition. He mentions Brunson's pattern of beating lower-level guys and losing to rising contenders, and predicts a straight right or uppercut finish.

first round KO, straight right or uppercut finish
"shabazian gets the job done by brutal ko i think he gets it by a straight right right on the bottom right on the button as brunson comes in"
WIN vs Ian Heinisch
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 81 of 185 43% 102 of 207 2 of 10 20% 0 0 2:13
Ian Heinisch 0 58 of 143 40% 65 of 150 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 16 of 42 38% 27 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:58
Ian Heinisch 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 55 52% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Ian Heinisch 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 36 of 88 40% 40 of 92 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:37
Ian Heinisch 0 26 of 66 39% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 81 of 185 43% 51 of 142 26 of 37 4 of 6 69 of 170 7 of 9 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 58 of 143 40% 37 of 114 16 of 23 5 of 6 49 of 130 8 of 12 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 16 of 42 38% 10 of 35 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 19 of 43 44% 8 of 31 7 of 8 4 of 4 14 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 29 of 55 52% 21 of 41 7 of 11 1 of 3 23 of 48 1 of 1 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 13 of 34 38% 7 of 22 6 of 11 0 of 1 11 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 36 of 88 40% 20 of 66 14 of 20 2 of 2 34 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 26 of 66 39% 22 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 1 24 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 56 of 94 59% 65 of 103 4 of 9 44% 0 0 3:17
Elias Theodorou 0 65 of 170 38% 87 of 194 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 24 58% 16 of 26 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:23
Elias Theodorou 0 16 of 42 38% 25 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Derek Brunson 0 22 of 37 59% 26 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Elias Theodorou 0 25 of 68 36% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 20 of 33 60% 23 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Elias Theodorou 0 24 of 60 40% 28 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 56 of 94 59% 34 of 62 11 of 17 11 of 15 45 of 82 6 of 7 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 65 of 170 38% 16 of 88 27 of 34 22 of 48 53 of 150 12 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 24 58% 11 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 15 3 of 4 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 16 of 42 38% 1 of 17 11 of 12 4 of 13 9 of 33 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 22 of 37 59% 10 of 21 6 of 7 6 of 9 20 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 25 of 68 36% 5 of 33 9 of 13 11 of 22 24 of 63 1 of 5 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 20 of 33 60% 13 of 23 3 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 24 of 60 40% 10 of 38 7 of 9 7 of 13 20 of 54 4 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
TKO (knees and punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."