Career Averages - Amanda Ribas
Career Averages - Viviane Araújo
Amanda Ribas
Viviane Araújo
Amanda Ribas - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 77 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 34 of 76 | 44% | 82 of 140 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 55 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 48 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 34 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 30 of 72 | 41% | 18 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 34 of 76 | 44% | 23 of 60 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 14 of 42 | 33% | 8 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 8 of 25 | 32% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 20 of 34 | 58% | 15 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas but is split between brain and gut. He notes Ribas is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and striking, while Tabatha Ricci has abandoned her grappling for boxing due to her boyfriend's influence. He believes Ricci's new style is ineffective and Ribas is the better fighter, but acknowledges Ricci's pressure and cardio could cause an upset.
Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, believing she is the better striker and grappler. He notes Ribas has a reach advantage and a positive striking differential, while Ricci has low volume and a very short reach. He acknowledges Ribas has chin issues but thinks Ricci lacks power to exploit it. He predicts a decision win.
Both women are flaky, but Ricci has the ability to work through Ribas's unflashy striking game and could even land takedowns to grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci despite acknowledging she has been 'gifted' decisions in the past. He notes Ribas's chinny nature and recent submission loss, but is hesitant because Ricci's wins are often controversial. He predicts a close 29-28 decision, possibly a robbery, in Ricci's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 82 of 107 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 4:34 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 17 of 56 | 30% | 99 of 151 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 24 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:39 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 27 of 46 | 58% | 13 of 27 | 3 of 8 | 11 of 11 | 18 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 9 |
| Amanda Ribas | 17 of 56 | 30% | 10 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 10 of 33 | 30% | 6 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Amanda Ribas | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 12 of 18 | 66% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Amanda Ribas | 4 of 17 | 23% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, noting that she dominated the first fight and has improved her striking since. He believes Ribas is the better striker and wrestler, and that her takedown defense and cardio will be key. He thinks the five rounds favor Ribas, as Dern's danger decreases as the fight goes on. He mentions Jacob had a big bet on Ribas at plus money when she was an underdog.
Big Brady notes that Dern has improved her striking and takedown accuracy since their first fight, but still considers her wrestling and striking not great. He highlights Ribas's elite takedown defense (85%) and her own grappling ability, meaning she won't be afraid to grapple. He predicts Ribas will dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision, though not as dominant as the first fight.
Cody leans toward Ribas despite the -200 price, citing Dern's inability to chain wrestle and finish submissions over three years. He notes Dern's mental lapses in later rounds and Ribas's forward pressure and power. He suggests a live bet strategy, expecting Ribas to win rounds 3-5 as Dern fades.
Connor picks Ribas because she has a fundamental technical advantage on the feet and a style that counters Dern's approach. He notes that Dern's striking defense is nonexistent and she cannot land the same strike twice due to poor technique. Ribas is comfortable trading and landing cleaner counters, as seen in their first fight. Dern's path to victory requires a simple aggressive game plan, but she lacks the technical ability to execute it consistently.
Daniel acknowledges Ribas is more technically sound but notes her chinny defect, having been knocked out by multiple opponents. He thinks Ribas will dominate but could get cracked, so he passes on betting. As a pure pick, he goes with Ribas via decision, citing her superior technique and the fact that she usually needs to be finished to lose. He also mentions Dern's improved hands but still favors Ribas.
Lucrative James confidently picks Amanda Ribas, having placed a bet at -160. He believes Ribas is better in all facets of MMA, as shown in their first fight. He notes that five rounds favor Ribas's cardio and experience, though Dern's danger (power, submissions) offsets it slightly. He hasn't seen enough improvement from Dern to change the outcome. He also mentions that the line has moved to -200, giving him CLV.
Ribas is still ahead of Dern and should stop Dern's poor wrestling. Ribas will be more effective and active with her striking, busting up Dern and winning on the scorecards in this rematch from 2019.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Dern's improved focus but still rudimentary wrestling. He highlights Ribas's takedown defense and well-roundedness, and that Dern went 0 for 6 on takedowns in their first fight. He is not excited about -200 but sees Ribas as the rightful favorite.
The Guru struggles with this pick, initially leaning towards Dern but then recalling that Ribas won the first fight by stuffing takedowns and outstriking Dern. He notes Dern's poor striking and Ribas's suspect chin but ultimately goes with Ribas, predicting a TKO in round 3 or 4. He expresses frustration with the difficulty of the pick.
Zane agrees with Connor, initially seeing an avenue for Dern but concluding that Ribas is the correct pick. He notes that Dern's success comes against opponents terrified of her ground game or those she can outmuscle, but Ribas is not afraid to scrap and will fire back. Dern's lack of technical improvement and inability to finish fights in recent years are key factors. Zane also mentions that Ribas has not changed her style, which works against Dern.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 83 of 270 | 30% | 137 of 342 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 93 of 188 | 49% | 169 of 281 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 6:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 16 of 47 | 34% | 30 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 23 of 34 | 67% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 15 of 49 | 30% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 43 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 31 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 10 of 39 | 25% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 45 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 24 of 85 | 28% | 25 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 83 of 270 | 30% | 39 of 195 | 19 of 42 | 25 of 33 | 76 of 259 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 |
| Amanda Ribas | 93 of 188 | 49% | 45 of 124 | 44 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 81 of 176 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 16 of 47 | 34% | 8 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 23 of 34 | 67% | 6 of 16 | 16 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 15 of 49 | 30% | 7 of 34 | 3 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 27 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 18 of 50 | 36% | 10 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Amanda Ribas | 19 of 36 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 10 of 39 | 25% | 3 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 7 of 25 | 28% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 24 of 85 | 28% | 11 of 61 | 9 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 23 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 25 of 54 | 46% | 12 of 36 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.
Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.
Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.
Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 55 of 116 | 47% | 56 of 120 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 1 | 87 of 224 | 38% | 96 of 234 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 18 of 69 | 26% | 19 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 40 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 13 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 1 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 55 of 116 | 47% | 36 of 86 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 12 | 51 of 109 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 87 of 224 | 38% | 57 of 158 | 8 of 29 | 22 of 37 | 81 of 212 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 25 of 54 | 46% | 17 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 18 of 69 | 26% | 12 of 51 | 1 of 8 | 5 of 10 | 17 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 18 of 35 | 51% | 11 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 40 of 98 | 40% | 23 of 64 | 3 of 14 | 14 of 20 | 39 of 96 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 12 of 27 | 44% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 29 of 57 | 50% | 22 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 25 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 6 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, expecting her to use her size and strength to grind out a win. He notes she is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and cardio. He warns she must stay controlled and not get sucked into a brawl. He also mentions a prop bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance.
Big Brady thinks Ribas is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling, cardio—but her chin is very bad, having been dropped and knocked out multiple times. He finds it hard to pick Pinheiro, who he doesn't think is that great, to win by knockout. He predicts Ribas wins by decision but calls it a sketchy fight due to durability concerns.
Cody picks Amanda Ribas, citing her takedown offense and volume striking. He notes that Pinheiro is a front-runner who tires, and Ribas can mix in takedowns and striking to win. He acknowledges Ribas took damage in her last fight but believes she has the dog in her to win.
Pinheiro has good striking power and can hurt Ribas on the feet. Ribas's grappling is a threat, but Pinheiro is strong enough to keep it standing. Pinheiro's power punches can find the button and knock Ribas out, likely in the second round. The line is too wide; Pinheiro has value at plus money.
Paul picks Ribas, noting her takedown accuracy and ability to grind. He points out that Pinheiro gasses and has questionable durability. Paul believes Ribas can take her down, tire her, and open up striking. He mentions Ribas' loss to Barber but thinks Pinheiro lacks that finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas despite concerns about her chin after being knocked out at flyweight. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's record as padded, noting her controversial win over Michelle Waterson and a fake knockout against Randa Markos. He believes Ribas has a massive reach advantage and that Pinheiro lacks the power to finish her, predicting a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 43 of 85 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 81 of 124 | 65% | 93 of 139 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 26 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 35 of 62 | 56% | 41 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 35 of 74 | 47% | 21 of 52 | 7 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 81 of 124 | 65% | 70 of 108 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 43 of 55 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 22 of 42 | 52% | 11 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 35 of 62 | 56% | 28 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 29 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 13 of 32 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 46 of 62 | 74% | 42 of 53 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 26 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her better Jiu-Jitsu, higher level of competition, and solid takedown defense. He notes Maycee Barber has been taken down nine times in the UFC and two of her wins were questionable decisions. He expects Ribas to come forward, stay busy, use takedowns, and win an easy decision. He also calls it an over 2.5 rounds play.
Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, citing her superior wrestling and BJJ. He notes Barber's poor takedown defense (47%) and that she was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He believes Ribas will easily take Barber down and control her on the ground, unlike Andrea Lee who let Barber get up. He predicts a decision win but warns that judges favor Barber.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Ribas. He highlights Barber's takedown defense issues, especially against Andrea Lee, and believes Ribas's superior jiu-jitsu and top control will be decisive. He notes the minus 200 price is not a betting opportunity but for the show he picks Ribas.
Connor picks Ribas, agreeing with Zane that Ribas is the better fighter. He highlights Barber's awkwardness and physicality but notes that Ribas is a legitimate takedown artist and better grappler. Connor points out that Andrea Lee took Barber down five times, which bodes well for Ribas. He sees a small margin for error for Ribas due to Barber's power and toughness, but expects Ribas to win via superior technique.
Daniel Levi picks Amanda Ribas, citing her technical superiority everywhere the fight goes. He notes Barber's power but believes Ribas's grappling will be the difference, as Barber was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He thinks Ribas will get takedowns and control the fight, possibly finishing. He mentions he got in at -145 and considers -200 a dog-or-pass situation.
The host picks Amanda Ribas to win by decision. He believes Ribas is a far superior grappler and that she can take Barber down and control the fight from top position. He notes Barber's takedown defense issues and thinks Ribas's pressure and pace will be key. He acknowledges Barber's power and explosivity on the feet but expects Ribas to grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks Ribas, emphasizing her wrestling and grappling to neutralize Barber. He notes Ribas's improvements and her ability to take down opponents, while Barber has plateaued and struggles with takedown defense. He thinks the plus money on Barber is tempting but can't get there.
The Guru initially leaned Maycee Barber but switched to Amanda Ribas after counter-arguing his own points. He notes Ribas has a better chin at flyweight, a big advantage on the ground, and outpoints at range with reach. He criticizes Barber's win over Miranda Maverick as a robbery and points out that Maverick was recently dominated by Jasudavicius, undermining Barber's credentials. He also mentions Ribas' wins over Araujo and Jandiroba, and her competitive fight with Chookagian.
Zane picks Ribas, comparing the matchup to Jaco vs Eric Anders. He notes Ribas is the better technical fighter with superior wrestling and grappling, and expects her to come out ahead in the chaotic exchanges. He acknowledges Barber's athleticism and toughness but believes Ribas's transitional grappling and ability to work on the ground will be decisive. Zane sees Barber's technical limitations and poor wrestling as key vulnerabilities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 46 of 115 | 40% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 98 of 183 | 53% | 205 of 320 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 35 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 48 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 81 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 76 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 46 of 115 | 40% | 37 of 105 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 45 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 98 of 183 | 53% | 71 of 149 | 11 of 16 | 16 of 18 | 93 of 176 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 18 of 48 | 37% | 13 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 31 of 71 | 43% | 20 of 58 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 31 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 9 of 15 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 24 of 59 | 40% | 21 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 58 of 97 | 59% | 44 of 78 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 58 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.
Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.
Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.
Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.
Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.
Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.
Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 63 of 222 | 28% | 71 of 230 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 55 of 169 | 32% | 84 of 204 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 62 | 32% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 7 of 34 | 20% | 15 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 24 of 61 | 39% | 27 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 28 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 19 of 99 | 19% | 19 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 33 of 89 | 37% | 41 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 63 of 222 | 28% | 42 of 175 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 56 of 210 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 55 of 169 | 32% | 28 of 124 | 8 of 23 | 19 of 22 | 49 of 156 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 62 | 32% | 13 of 46 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 59 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 7 of 34 | 20% | 5 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 24 of 61 | 39% | 17 of 48 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 15 of 46 | 32% | 7 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 19 of 99 | 19% | 12 of 81 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 33 of 89 | 37% | 16 of 62 | 5 of 14 | 12 of 13 | 32 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.
Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.
Viviane Araújo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 102 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 8:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 23 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:52 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 25 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 54 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 51 | 43% | 16 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 65 of 103 | 63% | 53 of 82 | 8 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 39 of 45 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 15 of 20 | 75% | 10 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 12 of 29 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 20 of 43 | 46% | 15 of 33 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 30 of 40 | 75% | 28 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 28 |
Angelo slightly picks Tracy Cortez because he expects her grappling to wear down Viviane Araújo as the fight goes on, given Araújo's cardio fades and she is 38 years old. He acknowledges that Araújo is the better striker and has good takedown defense, but thinks Cortez can grind out a win. He also suggests the over on the round line is a safe bet, noting that women's fights often go over.
Big Brady thinks Cortez is the better striker and younger, and expects the fight to take place at distance where Cortez will outland Araújo. He notes Araújo has been outlanded at distance in recent fights and is 38 years old. Brady believes Cortez can also mix in takedowns. However, he is surprised by the -230 line, thinking it's too wide, but still picks Cortez to win by decision.
The host is leaning Cortez, believing her wrestling will break down Araújo and lead to dominant second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards.
The host picks Tracy Cortez but is hesitant, expecting a close competitive decision. He notes that Cortez has crisper boxing while Araújo is more well-rounded, and that the fight is likely to be a 29-28 decision. He is tempted by Araújo's underdog odds but ultimately goes with Cortez, believing the judges will favor her in a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 48 of 85 | 56% | 105 of 152 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 58 of 132 | 43% | 76 of 155 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 3:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 22 of 65 | 33% | 22 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 49 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 36 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 38 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 48 of 85 | 56% | 34 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 41 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Karine Silva | 58 of 132 | 43% | 26 of 83 | 10 of 19 | 22 of 30 | 45 of 117 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 30 | 56% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Karine Silva | 22 of 65 | 33% | 10 of 43 | 1 of 6 | 11 of 16 | 21 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 25 | 56% | 11 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Karine Silva | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 30 | 56% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Karine Silva | 25 of 52 | 48% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 42 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-258), Araujo (+210)
Round 1
It’s a battle of momentum as the main card rails on, with Araujo (12-6, 6-5 UFC) struggling at the upper echelon of the flyweight division as of late. The same cannot be said for the younger Silva (18-4, 4-0 UFC), who has cruised through opposition with three subs in her four UFC wins to date. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for this 125-pound contest, and it kicks off as the ladies touch ‘em up. Silva marches forward behind a front kick to start, and she aims it a few more times to keep Araujo away from her. Silva uses it to try to close the distance and wrap up her opponent, but Araujo gets away. Silva slaps her with a leg kick, and a second is met with a one-two. Silva crashes the pocket and gets off a leg kick, and she whiffs with a huge overhand right. Araujo splits the guard with a right hand, and Silva pays it no mind and keeps plodding onward. Silva sticks out a jab, and Araujo puts three punches on her before sliding to the side. Silva crashes forward, and Araujo is able to wriggle away before getting clinched. Silva kicks at the front leg and is countered by her fellow countrywoman, and she keeps chasing until getting tagged with a straight right hand. Silva again shakes off the strong strike and trades a low kick with her foe. Araujo steps to the side and sinks in a right hand around the guard, and she stays away from a number of inaccurate kicks. Silva does reach her with a low kick, and the high kick that follows is easily blocked. Araujo moves from side to side, not falling into a pattern and easily shrugging off a Silva shot. Araujo rings her opponent’s bell with a one-two, and Silva does not slow with her constant kick approach. Silva gets off a left hand, and the swings that follow all go wide. Silva paws out with a big right hand, clubbing “Vivi” on the side of the dome. A second shakes Araujo up further, and Silva stalks her down and hits her a third time. Araujo strikes back, and is warned for outstretched fingers. The horn sounds as Silva rushes into attack, and they crash heads together when Goddard grabs them, resulting in a bloody nose for Araujo.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
Silva starts off the round as aggressive as ever, with her front kick immediately drawing more blood from Araujo’s nose. Araujo rushes into action, fighting behind several punch combinations that all connect before Silva can strike back. Araujo hammers the front leg with a kick, and Silva runs towards her and gets hold of her against the fencing. Araujo escapes before absorbing anything of note, but blood is trickling out of that nose quicker than before. Araujo backs Silva off with a one-two, and a second two-strike combo finds the mark as Silva rushes towards her. Silva blasts Araujo in the face with an overhand right, and Araujo backs up into the wall and has no way to escape the second that catches her cleanly. When Silva tries to use the close proximity to take the fight down, Araujo repeatedly grabs the fence to keep herself afloat. Silva sells out for a throw, and Araujo turns her around. Silva uses the body lock to lower Araujo to the floor, her own nose bloodied as well. Araujo gets busy off her back with punches, and she throws her legs up and grabs hold of an armbar. Araujo rolls to her stomach and flips Silva over, and she goes belly-down to almost complete the submission. Silva keeps pushing through it, turning the proper direction to survive the maneuver and reposition herself to side control. With Araujo’s nose busted, she gasps for air with her mouth open. Silva transitions her way to north-south position, and she wraps up a brabo choke when Araujo sits up. Silva rolls to her back to lock things up, and Araujo fights her arms and pushes off the knee to get some space. Araujo turns through it to get into north-south, and she considers wrapping up an armbar or another armlock. Araujo opens it up with several unblocked punches, ending the round sitting on Silva’s face but not in a fun way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to begin the last round, with scores possibly all over the map. Silva marches forward and shoots in for a takedown with Araujo jabbing her, and the ensuing scramble results in Araujo winding up on top somehow. A bit of blood on both women plus fatigue equals strange positioning. Araujo bails on the position and backs off, allowing Silva to stand. Araujo backs off and lands a low kick and a right hand, and Silva jabs her back in the midsection. Araujo reaches out with a right hand over the top, and Silva’s responses are labored and flailing. Araujo catches a front kick and tosses Silva to her back, with Silva appearing to flop to her back in part due to exhaustion. Silva puts her hands behind her head, with Araujo kicking her legs until Goddard stands her up. Araujo leans back from a head kick to boot Silva in the ribs, and they trade kicks until Araujo drills her with an uppercut. Silva plods forward and absorbs a solid right hand, and she takes a step back and launches several front kicks that all come up short. Araujo kicks the front leg, and she catches a kick her direction and tosses Silva to the mat. Silva again needs Goddard to get between them and let her up, and the fans in the building do not approve of Silva’s strategy. Silva walks into punches and kicks, her face swelling up with a mouse growing on her forehead. Silva’s front kick is swatted away, and she flops to her back. Araujo tells her to stand back up, and she watches Silva’s labored punches soar past her. Silva uses them to get hold of Araujo, and she drives a knee into her jaw. Silva gloms onto her opponent in the clinch, with the occasional knee coming until Araujo head-and-arm throws her to the ground. Silva lands strangely with her head squished against the cage floor and wall, and she is held there until the strange fight closes. Judges may have their hands full here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (30-27 Araujo)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Araujo)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Silva)
The Official Result
Viviane Araujo def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Karine Silva, noting her powerful grappling and constant submission threats. He acknowledges Viviane Araújo is tough with good takedown defense, but believes Silva will get timely takedowns. He finds the -265 odds too steep to bet and is unsure about prop bets due to Silva's finishing rate.
Big Brady picks Karine Silva, noting that Viviane Araújo is older and slowing down. He acknowledges Araújo's elite takedown defense and good striking volume, but believes Silva has more power and can get takedowns. He thinks Silva's cardio is better than Araújo's, who has slowed in many fights. He predicts a decision win for Silva, though he admits the line is too wide.
Cody picks Karine Silva, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down and neutralize opponents. He notes Araújo is 38 and has been taken down by lesser grapplers, but Silva's striking is not great and she may struggle to finish. Cody expects a decision win for Silva, possibly by submission if she gets the neck.
Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that she has more dynamic moments and can out-wrestle Araújo. He notes that Araújo's striking is predictable and she struggles against athletic opponents. Connor thinks Silva's reactive takedowns and submission threat will be key.
Vreeland picks Silva because Araújo has struggled against younger, faster opponents. He notes Araújo's only recent win was over Jennifer Maia due to a speed advantage, but Silva is not slower. Silva has good volume, speed, and grappling, including a dangerous guillotine. Vreeland thinks Silva's all-around game will be too much for Araújo.
Daniel Vreeland picks Karine Silva, citing her dominance in getting fights to the mat and her submission threats. He acknowledges Araújo's takedown defense and striking output but believes Silva's assertiveness and ability to dictate the pace will lead to a win. He does not confidently predict a submission but expects Silva to control the fight.
Fox picks Silva, calling her 'killer' and noting she is good everywhere and finishes fights. He agrees with Vreeland that Silva is the better fighter and expects her to win.
Lucrative James picks Karine Silva confidently, noting she is on an upward trajectory while Araújo is declining. He believes Silva has sharper BJJ and can capitalize on Araújo's takedown attempts to take the back or snatch a front choke. He also thinks Silva can land a knockdown on the feet, as Araújo gets hurt often. He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, though a close decision is possible. He sees value in Silva at -275 compared to Oliveira at the same odds.
The host thinks Silva is not as good as the odds suggest but believes her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds will wear out Araújo, who may have early striking success. He predicts Silva grinds it out, possibly getting a submission but officially wins by decision.
Paul leans toward Karine Silva but has reservations. He notes Silva's grappling is solid but she lacks ground and pound, and Araújo has never been submitted. Paul thinks the fight could be competitive and might go to a split decision, so he's considering a split decision prop. He's not confident enough to bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo as an underdog, not sold on Karine Silva's hype. He notes Araújo's competitive fights with Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso, and believes she can survive Silva's grappling. He doubts Silva's finishing ability.
Zane picks Silva, noting that both fighters are processless but Silva has more dynamic opportunities. He thinks Silva's speed and opportunistic grappling can catch Araújo, who is one-dimensional and losing athleticism. Zane believes Silva has a better chance of finishing or winning rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 63 of 110 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 38 of 128 | 29% | 65 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 36 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 8 of 32 | 25% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 58 | 31% | 27 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 26 of 67 | 38% | 20 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 38 of 128 | 29% | 24 of 103 | 8 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 38 of 128 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 8 of 32 | 25% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 12 of 38 | 31% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 9 of 31 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 18 of 58 | 31% | 9 of 44 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.
Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.
Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.
Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 60 of 126 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 64 of 100 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 41 of 101 | 40% | 29 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 31 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 14 of 30 | 46% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 29 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 8 of 14 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Jennifer Maia, calling her at -141 a great deal. He thinks she is better everywhere except raw takedowns, and expects her to weather Araújo's early storm, take over striking, and win a decision due to superior cardio. He already placed a unit on her and expects the line to widen.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo with little confidence. He likes her striking and wrestling advantage early, but worries about her poor cardio and durability. He expects Araújo to win the first round, Maia the third, and the fight to go to a close decision that could be affected by judges.
Cody picks Araújo, citing her superior speed and technique. He notes that at her best, she is faster and cleaner than Maia, and can mix in takedowns to steal rounds. He acknowledges her past cardio issues but believes she has corrected them in recent fights, pointing to her performances against Andrea Lee and Alexa Grasso. He expects a 15-minute fight and thinks Araújo can win two of three rounds.
The host picks Jennifer Maia, citing her superior experience, cardio, and ability to withstand Araújo's early striking. He expects Maia to take over in the second and third rounds, possibly using takedowns to wear on Araújo. He predicts a decision win for Maia.
Paul leans towards Maia based on her high volume in recent fights (109 and 145 significant strikes). He acknowledges Araújo's takedown threat but notes that judges now require control time and damage from top position. He expects a close decision and thinks Maia's volume will edge it. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds at -450 as a potential play.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araújo. He thinks Maia has better boxing and is scrappier. He notes Araújo is on a two-fight losing streak and didn't look good against Amanda Ribas, while Maia is on a two-fight winning streak, including a win over Casey O'Neill. He expects a decision win for Maia, calling it a coin flip but leaning her way due to momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 46 of 115 | 40% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 98 of 183 | 53% | 205 of 320 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 35 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 48 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 81 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 76 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 46 of 115 | 40% | 37 of 105 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 45 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 98 of 183 | 53% | 71 of 149 | 11 of 16 | 16 of 18 | 93 of 176 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 18 of 48 | 37% | 13 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 31 of 71 | 43% | 20 of 58 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 31 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 9 of 15 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 24 of 59 | 40% | 21 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 58 of 97 | 59% | 44 of 78 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 58 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.
Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.
Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.
Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.
Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.
Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.
Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 153 of 311 | 49% | 193 of 353 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 126 of 264 | 47% | 148 of 288 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 32 of 66 | 48% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 38 of 73 | 52% | 57 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 26 of 56 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 32 of 61 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 153 of 311 | 49% | 101 of 243 | 33 of 45 | 19 of 23 | 143 of 298 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 126 of 264 | 47% | 103 of 235 | 17 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 124 of 261 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 32 of 66 | 48% | 24 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 27 of 52 | 51% | 23 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 38 of 73 | 52% | 26 of 60 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 20 of 50 | 40% | 15 of 44 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 34 of 64 | 53% | 20 of 45 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 30 of 54 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 24 of 47 | 51% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 25 of 56 | 44% | 19 of 50 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 25 of 61 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 24 of 52 | 46% | 21 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.
Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.
Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.
Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.
Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.
Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.
Zane picks Grasso, citing her sharper punching and ability to land cleaner shots over five rounds. He notes that Grasso has been putting together nice combination counters in the pocket, similar to Robert Whittaker, and that Araujo is very hittable. He acknowledges Araujo's wrestling and grappling could be a factor but believes Grasso's scrambling and clinch work will be enough to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 96 of 160 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 10:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 64 of 103 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 31 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 39 of 79 | 49% | 25 of 63 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 82 | 57% | 34 of 65 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 18 of 34 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Andrea Lee | 9 of 10 | 90% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 13 of 21 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.
Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 127 of 292 | 43% | 135 of 300 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 89 of 196 | 45% | 129 of 238 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 43 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 58 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 55 of 125 | 44% | 55 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 35 of 92 | 38% | 35 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 127 of 292 | 43% | 87 of 236 | 31 of 46 | 9 of 10 | 121 of 286 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 89 of 196 | 45% | 60 of 162 | 24 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 85 of 192 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 37 of 91 | 40% | 21 of 67 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 32 of 56 | 57% | 17 of 38 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 76 | 46% | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 55 of 125 | 44% | 42 of 107 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 54 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 35 of 92 | 38% | 24 of 79 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.
Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.
The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.
Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.
Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.
Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.
Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.
Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.
Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.
Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.
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