Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
Career Averages - Brad Tavares
Dricus du Plessis
Brad Tavares
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 45 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 37 of 47 | 78% | 529 of 567 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 21:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 131 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 79 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 19 of 22 | 86% | 156 of 164 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 76 of 85 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 19 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 87 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 29 | 44% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 37 of 47 | 78% | 28 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 19 of 22 | 86% | 19 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 10 of 20 | 50% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)
Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.
Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.
Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.
The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.
The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.
Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 147 of 314 | 46% | 149 of 316 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 128 of 263 | 48% | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 39 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 21 of 66 | 31% | 23 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 147 of 314 | 46% | 50 of 193 | 45 of 59 | 52 of 62 | 147 of 314 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 128 of 263 | 48% | 90 of 212 | 29 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 20 of 45 | 44% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 16 of 49 | 32% | 10 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 60 | 51% | 7 of 31 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 19 | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 54 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 39 of 79 | 49% | 11 of 46 | 14 of 15 | 14 of 18 | 39 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 24 of 47 | 51% | 18 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 21 of 66 | 31% | 13 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 28 of 51 | 54% | 23 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 36 of 64 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 36 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 31 of 62 | 50% | 24 of 54 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.
Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.
Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.
Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 90 of 197 | 45% | 99 of 206 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 97 of 203 | 47% | 105 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 75 | 41% | 31 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 90 of 197 | 45% | 61 of 155 | 7 of 13 | 22 of 29 | 80 of 184 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 97 of 203 | 47% | 63 of 165 | 26 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 92 of 198 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 52 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 37 | 43% | 10 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 25 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 17 of 30 | 56% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 75 | 41% | 22 of 63 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 40 of 83 | 48% | 25 of 66 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 24 of 45 | 53% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.
Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.
Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.
Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.
The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.
Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 173 of 408 | 42% | 183 of 419 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 137 of 354 | 38% | 140 of 358 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 39 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 19 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 87 | 35% | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 33 of 85 | 38% | 34 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 73 | 39% | 31 of 75 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 53 of 99 | 53% | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 35 of 86 | 40% | 35 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 173 of 408 | 42% | 157 of 387 | 10 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 173 of 408 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 137 of 354 | 38% | 81 of 283 | 32 of 37 | 24 of 34 | 134 of 348 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 34 of 75 | 45% | 28 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 18 of 51 | 35% | 8 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 62 | 35% | 20 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 26 of 60 | 43% | 11 of 42 | 9 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 87 | 35% | 29 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 84 | 34% | 13 of 64 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 33 of 85 | 38% | 32 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 73 | 39% | 22 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 28 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 53 of 99 | 53% | 48 of 93 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 35 of 86 | 40% | 27 of 77 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)
Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.
Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.
Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.
Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.
Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.
Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.
I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 37 of 84 | 44% | 43 of 90 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:30 |
| Derek Brunson | 1 | 71 of 115 | 61% | 84 of 132 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:28 |
| Derek Brunson | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Derek Brunson | 1 | 62 of 101 | 61% | 68 of 108 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 37 of 84 | 44% | 27 of 71 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 74 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Derek Brunson | 71 of 115 | 61% | 55 of 97 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 53 of 95 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 12 of 23 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Derek Brunson | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 25 of 61 | 40% | 16 of 50 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Derek Brunson | 62 of 101 | 61% | 49 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 50 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.
Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.
Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.
Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.
Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.
Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 58 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 86 of 147 | 58% | 117 of 197 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 5:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 60 of 85 | 70% | 82 of 126 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:56 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 19 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 35 of 70 | 50% | 26 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 86 of 147 | 58% | 69 of 123 | 4 of 7 | 13 of 17 | 28 of 59 | 25 of 40 | 33 of 48 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 60 of 85 | 70% | 54 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 38 | 31 of 41 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 18 of 33 | 54% | 12 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 11 of 25 | 44% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 16 of 34 | 47% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.
Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.
Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.
Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.
Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.
Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 82 of 150 | 54% | 98 of 167 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 113 of 212 | 53% | 123 of 222 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 25 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 39 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 39 of 78 | 50% | 40 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 60 of 111 | 54% | 61 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 82 of 150 | 54% | 55 of 113 | 21 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 69 of 132 | 12 of 16 | 1 of 2 |
| Brad Tavares | 113 of 212 | 53% | 79 of 169 | 17 of 21 | 17 of 22 | 97 of 192 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 10 of 13 | 76% | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Brad Tavares | 14 of 26 | 53% | 10 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 33 of 59 | 55% | 19 of 41 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 39 of 75 | 52% | 28 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 33 of 66 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 39 of 78 | 50% | 28 of 62 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 72 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 60 of 111 | 54% | 41 of 89 | 10 of 12 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 106 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.
Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.
Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.
The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.
Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.
Brad Tavares - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 1 | 48 of 86 | 55% | 55 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 35 of 84 | 41% | 68 of 133 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 9:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 1 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:25 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 48 of 86 | 55% | 29 of 64 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 59 | 14 of 21 | 3 of 6 |
| Eryk Anders | 35 of 84 | 41% | 26 of 69 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 47 | 19 of 36 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 18 of 35 | 51% | 7 of 23 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 18 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Eryk Anders | 20 of 41 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 18 of 31 | 58% | 11 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 6 |
| Eryk Anders | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 12 of 20 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eryk Anders | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brad Tavares but with very low confidence, calling it too close to bet. He notes both fighters have declining chins and the fight could be a quick knockout or a sloppy decision. He thinks Tavares is more well-rounded and faster, but Eryk Anders could bull his way forward. He ultimately goes with Tavares due to technical edge.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Eryk Anders by split decision, calling it a '1-800 Gambler fight.' He thinks both fighters are washed but gives Anders the edge due to slightly harder punching and ability to control against the cage. He predicts a low-quality fight and even considered predicting a draw.
Cody picks Tavares, citing his experience, takedown defense, and ability to outpoint Anders. He notes Anders' declining durability and retirement announcement. He expects a close decision but Tavares edges it.
Connor does not make a clear pick for this fight, calling it a toss-up and meaningless. He criticizes both fighters as old and irrelevant, suggesting the fight should not be happening in the UFC. He does not express a preference.
James picks Eryk Anders as an underdog, citing his grappling advantage and power. He notes that both fighters have fading durability and that Anders is more explosive. He calls the fight volatile and says no result would shock him.
The host picks Tavares to win by decision, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He believes Anders will struggle to land a knockout and that Tavares's combinations and effective damage will win rounds. He notes that both fighters are aging but Tavares is the better striker and should outwork Anders over 15 minutes.
Paul has no clear pick, expressing uncertainty about both fighters. He notes Tavares' recent losses and Anders' inconsistency. He doesn't want to bet either side.
The Guru picks Brad Tavares, emphasizing his low kicks as the key difference. He notes Anders has a wide stance and has struggled with low kicks before, and that Tavares has fought higher-level competition. He predicts a decision win, 30-27, as he doesn't see Anders finishing Tavares early.
Zane picks Brad Tavares, noting that Tavares looked decent in his fight against GM3 but struggled against Robert Brishik, who pushed a pace. He believes Anders is also slow and throws single strikes, giving Tavares enough space to look like his old self. However, he acknowledges Tavares tends to lose a round due to passivity.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 42 of 102 | 41% | 50 of 111 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Robert Bryczek | 1 | 68 of 138 | 49% | 77 of 149 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 25 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Robert Bryczek | 1 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 48 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Bryczek | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Bryczek | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 42 of 102 | 41% | 17 of 69 | 8 of 13 | 17 of 20 | 41 of 100 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 68 of 138 | 49% | 47 of 104 | 16 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 43 of 101 | 9 of 16 | 16 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 39 of 73 | 53% | 26 of 56 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 46 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 13 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 15 of 40 | 37% | 3 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 10 of 22 | 45% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 20 of 37 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 8 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tavares (-220); Bryczek (+190)
Round 1
Longtime veteran Tavares (21-10, 16-10 UFC) had his most recent contract come to an end, and after a brief time of uncertainty he was brought back to the promotion he joined by winning the 11th season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” While he has faced many of the best fighters in the history of the middleweight division, he draws a Polish adversary in Bryczek (17-6, 0-1 UFC) that may be a bit less decorated but is just as dangerous given his stoppage rate above 70%. Referee Lukasz Bosacki draws the charge to handle the 185ers, who clap hands to initiate the match.
Bryczek puts his foot on the gas, chasing the longtime vet around, and he finds himself in the pocket with Tavares. This results in them both trading, and Tavares backs off and takes a body shot and a jab up top. Tavares replies with a pushing front kick, and he catches Bryczek ducking down with a pair of punches on the temple. Tavares stays on his back foot, firing off kicks as Bryczek advances towards him. Bryczek continues marching ever forward, with Tavares more than ready to counter, his right hand ready for action. Bryczek smacks the front leg of his foe with a kick, and puts his guard up to block a one-two that he expects. Bryczek swings for the fences and knocks Tavares clean off his feet. Tavares works his way up with the wall, but Bryczek is swarming him with fists to the dome and guts. Tavares ties him up to clear the cobwebs, and Bryczek settles for a few knees to the thigh before breaking off.
Tavares circles away, letting fly kicks and a pair of punches up high, and the Polish athlete is incensed and ready for destruction. He lays into Tavares with punches in bunches, dropping Tavares to a knee as he tries to put his man away. Tavares is able to get back up despite being under fire, and he even manages some looping counters. When Bryczek overcommits on his attack, Tavares times a magnificent double-leg takedown to put the heavy-handed Polish fighter on his back. The nose of the Hawaiian is busted open and leaking on the mat, but he pays it no mind as he climbs into half guard and recovers. Tavares does some work on top but is largely content to control the remainder of the round and take a possible 10-8 score off the table—although that remains to be seen if judges believe the damage was substantial enough to award such a score. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Bryczek
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Bryczek
Round 2
The second round kicks off with a barrage of kicks from the Hawaiian, using them to keep distance and prevent Bryczek from hurling big hands at him. The low kicks are starting to mark up the lead leg of Bryczek, who is lumbering awkwardly on it as he advances. Tavares is the quicker of the two, as Bryczek may have punched himself out in the first round, because Bryczek cannot reach him. As Bryczek plods towards his man, Tavares shoots in on his hips. Bryczek knows it is coming and defends it, and he stands up and avoids a right hand zooming at his jaw.
Bryczek bears down on Tavares, replying with his own chopping kicks as he makes his way forward. Tavares lets fly a three-punch salvo that hits nothing but air, but his technical kickboxing is stifling Bryczek for the most part. Tavares backs himself to the wall and quickly realizes he needs to reposition himself, scurrying to the side as he spams the leg kick. Bryczek no-sells a head kick as he goes after Tavares, but his offense is otherwise fairly muted. The fans do not like this pick-and-poke strategy of low intensity, perhaps spoiled by the action of the previous bouts as well as this one’s first round, and they start booing heartily. A storied veteran with a lot of decisions on his ledger, the audience has no effect on the Hawaiian. He keeps his distance and probes with kicks and one-twos until the not-so-great round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Round 3
The middleweights touch ‘em up to show some respect opening the final frame, and Bryczek gets back to his forward-or-bust strategy. Tavares welcomes this, as he is able to simultaneously hop on his bike and land enough strikes to gain the upper hand. The Hawaiian puts some mustard into a body kick, and Bryczek does not like it and twirls around to take some of the sting out of it. When Bryczek gathers his thoughts, he marches Tavares down and guns for him with big, swinging fists. Tavares’ are straighter, jabbing and getting off one-twos. With a full head of steam, Bryczek attacks. Backing Tavares up to the fence, Bryczek strings together a prolonged combination of looping punches, cracking Tavares with a heavy right hand.
Stunned, Tavares starts to go down to a knee while still under fire, and Bryczek continues battering the grizzled veteran with all he has. With Bryczek hammering away with hammerfists as some land directly on the back of the head, Bosacki steps in, and Tavares immediately protests the stoppage.
His team is equally upset about what they feel was premature referee intervention, but as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout, that’s a wrap. Bryczek notches his first UFC victory and it is a huge scalp he collects by melting a formerly ranked fighter in Tavares.
The Official Result
Robert Bryczek def. Brad Tavares R3 1:43 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo leans towards Brad Tavares based on experience and toughness, but is surprised Tavares is nearly a 3-to-1 favorite given his age and decline. He acknowledges Bryczek's clean boxing and power, and notes that a one-punch knockout or decision win for Bryczek wouldn't surprise him. He advises against betting Tavares at these odds, warning that Bryczek is not a bum.
Big Brady is hesitant but picks Brad Tavares, as he wants to fade Tavares but cannot trust Bryczek after his poor performance. He notes Tavares has looked done since taking heavy damage, but Bryczek looked even worse, gassing quickly. He expects a decision win for Tavares.
The host expects a classic performance from Tavares but notes his deteriorating durability and decline. He acknowledges Bryczek could spoil plans with a big shot, but thinks Tavares keeps it clean and outpoints Bryczek to a decision victory.
The Guru picks Brad Tavares, dismissing Robert Bryczek as 'terrible' and 'dog [__]'. He criticizes Bryczek's debut performance and regional record, while noting Tavares has been competitive against proven UFC fighters. He expects a standup fight and predicts a 29-28 split decision for Tavares, citing his experience and well-roundedness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 47 of 109 | 43% | 56 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 38 of 83 | 45% | 51 of 97 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 47 of 109 | 43% | 29 of 85 | 12 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 45 of 105 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 38 of 83 | 45% | 27 of 66 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 36 of 79 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 13 of 36 | 36% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 26 of 51 | 50% | 15 of 38 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 23 of 44 | 52% | 18 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 21 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 8 of 22 | 36% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 7 of 15 | 46% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tavares (-258), Meerschaert (+210)
Round 1
As the main card carries on, the few hundred fans in the building will be treated to a fascinating clash of styles pitting the UFC middleweight decision leader against the division’s all-time top finisher. Tavares (20-10, 15-10 UFC) prefers to stand, while Meerschaert (37-18, 12-10 UFC) is hunting for his 30th submission—and Tavares has never before been submitted. Something might have to give before all is said and done here. Referee Mike Beltran draws the assignment, ready to step in at a moment’s notice. The grizzled veterans show respect for one another with a glove touch, and Tavares pops out his jab. Meerschaert surges forward, pulling back before letting go with anything. Tavares prepares for a counter when Meerschaert comes at him, dinging the grappler with a hard left hand. Meerschaert zooms forward, looking for a double and ending up pushing the Hawaiian against the fencing. When Tavares breaks free, Meerschaert goes after him and plants a left hand on the chin. He ducks down to try this strike again, and this time it lands cleaner. Tavares backs him off with a crisp boxing combo, and Meerschaert shoots in for a double but is totally shut down. Tavares misses a right hand by a matter of inches, but the body kick that follows does land. Tavares puts his fist on Meerschaert’s chin, and he dips in with a shovel uppercut that brushes past the jaw. The two crash together, and Tavares rings his foe’s bell with an elbow, giving chase with a left hand and a body kick. Meerschaert fakes a level change to buzz by his foe, and he pitches out a couple calf kicks. Tavares advances, is intercepted and still snaps out a jab. Meerschaert kicks him in the lead leg again, and he leans back and gets drilled with a long two-punch string right down the middle. Tavares clips Meerschaert a second time with a right hand, and “GM3” catches a kick and zips a kick back at his adversary’s head. Tavares comes up short with a spinning back fist, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Round 2
Fists are bumped to start off the second round, and Tavares gets right behind a double jab. Tavares plunks Meerschaert with a right hand and has a high kick buzz past his hair. Tavares plants a heavy leg kick that strips the legs out beneath the grappler, and Beltran allows him to stand up as Tavares does not want to hit the ground with him. Meerschaert blitzes forward, landing at the end of a pair of combinations and backing off from front kicks. He then charges again, scoring twice with a solid lefts before mashing Tavares against the cage. “GM3” slashes with an elbow on the break, and he sneaks in a left hand as Tavares clutches his jaw awkwardly. Tavares overswings, and Meerschaert ducks down to level change. Tavares stonewalls him, boots him in the face and then slams a leg kick home. Two heavy punches from the Hawaiian get through, and Meerschaert answers him with two doubled lefts. He tries this double-left attack two more times, and Tavares sees it coming and circles off. Meerschaert connects with a powerful uppercut to push Tavares back, and he hammers Tavares with a body kick after they split up. Meerschaert sells out for a single that comes up way short of succeeding, and Tavares backs him away with a front kick and a blistering uppercut. Meerschaert shells up to defend a body kick, and the front kick that follows gets through. Tavares skirts away from looping punches, and they clash legs when kicking at the same moment. Tavares slips in a one-two, gets his head snapped back and still lands. Meerschaert throws back harder, and he gets Tavares’ attention just a moment. Body kicks fly from both men, and Tavares winds up with a right hand that staggers the grappler. “GM3” shakes out the cobwebs and scores as left hand down the middle. The bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Round 3
Fists are bumped, and fighters engage right after it with clubbing punches. Meerschaert darts in for a takedown, and he runs directly into a body kick. Tavares hops back and in with a jab, and he runs forward and is tripped. Meerschaert lets him back up so he can target the body a few times, and Tavares kicks him in the guts and has to defend a takedown. Meerschaert nearly gets him down, Tavares pulls a finger off the wall and bounces off well enough to stay upright. Meerschaert clings to his side, fishing his legs in for a trip. Beltran asks for more activity as “GM3” hangs on from partial back control standing, and he kicks out Tavares’ other foot for a second of instability. He kicks the same foot again, and Tavares has to rejigger himself to not get tripped up. Meerschaert keeps attacking the feet when not trying to use his body weight to wrench Tavares down, and the Hawaiian is able to defend well enough as precious seconds tick off the clock. Beltran needs something more from the fighters, and Meerschaert exerts himself but is not able to get it down. Tavares puts his back to the fence, and his takedown defense is enough to stifle the Kill Cliff FC fighter’s every effort. Beltran breaks them apart with 70 seconds left, and Meerschaert practically runs towards his opponent flailing his fists, Tavares is more composed with straight strikes, and he has his kick parried and he rolls with a punch. Meerschaert lunges at him with two left hands to then go after a single, and Tavares breaks free with 15 seconds to go. Meerschaert runs forward, lets fly a body kick, and he slings three unsuccessful head kicks to conclude the lackluster pairing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert (29-28 Tavares)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert (29-28 Tavares)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert (29-28 Tavares)
The Official Result
Brad Tavares def. Gerald Meerschaert via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo notes Brad Tavares has fought everyone and has solid striking and 80% takedown defense, while Gerald Meerschaert is a good grappler but sucks on the feet and gets hit a lot. He warns that taking Meerschaert down is dangerous, but Tavares has the fight IQ to avoid that. Angelo picks Tavares but thinks the odds are high for a guy with only one win in three years, and suggests a 'win inside the distance' prop might be a sharp play.
Big Brady picks the underdog Gerald Meerschaert, citing Brad Tavares's decline after the Dricus du Plessis fight and poor recent performances. He believes Meerschaert has underrated striking and a huge grappling advantage, and expects him to submit Tavares in the second round.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Meerschaert. He emphasizes that Tavares is a neutralizer who no longer believes in his own power and doesn't follow up on damage. Connor notes that Meerschaert has become craftier on the feet and that Tavares's defensive shell will be his downfall. He calls the matchup terrible matchmaking but sees Meerschaert as the logical winner.
Tavares is clearly diminishing at 1-4 in his last five fights. Meerschaert can push a pace and get the grappling going in the first and second rounds, leading to a classic Meerschaert submission in round two or three.
The Guru picks Brad Tavares, emphasizing his takedown defense and ability to keep the fight standing. He thinks Meerschaert's body kicks and takedown attempts will be slow and predictable, and Tavares will be snappier on the feet. He expects a decision win for Tavares, though notes Meerschaert comes alive in the third round.
Zane picks Meerschaert, arguing that Brad Tavares is 'cooked' and no longer dangerous. He notes Tavares's lack of motivation, tendency to shell up when hurt, and inability to finish fights. Zane points out that Meerschaert has improved his boxing and reach usage, and has a win over Bruno Silva who knocked out Tavares. He believes Meerschaert's willingness to win and Tavares's decline make Meerschaert the clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 0 | 65 of 149 | 43% | 73 of 159 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 99 of 177 | 55% | 124 of 210 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 21 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 0 | 31 of 80 | 38% | 31 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 67 of 108 | 62% | 68 of 109 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 35 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 65 of 149 | 43% | 55 of 136 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 62 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Brad Tavares | 99 of 177 | 55% | 76 of 151 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 20 | 91 of 167 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 26 of 57 | 45% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Brad Tavares | 19 of 46 | 41% | 12 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 31 of 80 | 38% | 27 of 73 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 31 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 67 of 108 | 62% | 52 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 14 | 64 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 13 of 23 | 56% | 12 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Brad Tavares, citing his experience and takedown defense. He notes that Park Jun-yong is not dangerous enough to finish Tavares, lacking one-punch power and nasty takedowns. Angelo believes Tavares will defend takedowns and land clean strikes for a straightforward win.
Big Brady picks Park Jun-yong by decision. He thinks the fight will be close and go to the judges, but he cannot pick Brad Tavares due to his decline. Tavares has taken a lot of damage and looked poor in recent fights, including a lackluster win over Chris Weidman. Park was on a five-fight win streak before a close loss to Andre Muniz. Brady expects the fight to stay on the feet and Park to do better work, though it could be a close decision.
Connor also picks Park but is hesitant, noting that Tavares still has great takedown defense and can strike. He points out that Park's best path is through grappling, but Tavares stuffs takedowns. Connor thinks Park can win a striking battle because Tavares doesn't throw combinations and is passive, but it's a risky fight for Park.
Daniel highlights Park's well-rounded skills, pace, and wrestling ability, noting that he was close to knocking out RoboCop. He criticizes Tavares's recent decline, pointing out that RoboCop walked through him with zero respect. Daniel believes Park's physicality and durability will be key, and he predicts a knockout victory, citing that Park has been overdue for his first UFC KO.
Tavares is on a rough run but this is a winnable matchup if he keeps it in the striking realm. Park has decent power but not enough to catch Tavares. Tavares will land better strikes, leg kicks, stop takedowns, and win on the scorecards over 15 minutes.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares, noting that Tavares cannot be taken down and has good cardio. He criticizes Park Jun-yong's striking and believes Tavares will out-strike him for a TKO or decision. He acknowledges Tavares has been KO'd recently but sees Park lacking the power to finish him.
Zane picks Park but is hesitant because Tavares has excellent takedown defense, which neutralizes Park's best weapon. He notes that Park's striking is crafty but he is short and gets hit often, and Tavares is a durable defensive striker who doesn't leave many openings. Zane trusts Park to win a kickboxing match due to his volume and trap-setting, but acknowledges it's a tough fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 84 | 44% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 71 of 123 | 57% | 79 of 135 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 26 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 24 of 34 | 70% | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 37 of 84 | 44% | 28 of 70 | 4 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 71 of 123 | 57% | 53 of 102 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 12 | 64 of 114 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 14 of 30 | 46% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 25 of 49 | 51% | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 39 | 46% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 22 of 40 | 55% | 13 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 24 of 34 | 70% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Gregory Rodrigues as a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt and good takedown defense, and notes he is a threat everywhere. Brad Tavares is tough and experienced but not dangerous, with only two finishes in 15 UFC wins. Angelo believes Rodrigues' forward pressure and power will win the fight, likely by decision due to Tavares' durability.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Rodrigues has power and durability issues, but Tavares has no finishing ability and is getting older. He expects Rodrigues to march forward and land a big shot, knocking out Tavares. He mentions that Tavares couldn't finish 41-year-old Matt Wyman, which was a terrible look.
Cody picks Rodrigues, noting Tavares lacks power and has not knocked anyone out in years. He thinks Rodrigues' size and pressure will be too much, and that Tavares' low volume and lack of finishing ability play into Rodrigues' hands. Cody expects a decision win for Rodrigues, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.
Tavares has a striking advantage and solid takedown defense. He should be able to control the fight with leg kicks and counter striking. Rodrigues may strike himself exhausted trying to finish. Tavares' durability is a non-issue, and his losses are to top-tier competition. At +195, this is a no-brainer spot for the veteran to win by decision.
Paul agrees, calling Tavares a gatekeeper who doesn't pose many threats. He notes Tavares' lack of knockout power and that Rodrigues is huge for the weight class. Paul thinks Rodrigues' grappling and pressure will be decisive, and that Tavares' takedown defense may not hold up. He expects a clear decision for Rodrigues.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues with high confidence, criticizing Brad Tavares for not finishing a compromised Chris Weidman. He believes Tavares is not high-level and lacks punch power. He expects Rodrigues to find a TKO win on the feet, as he does not think Tavares can put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 37 of 92 | 40% | 39 of 94 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 70 of 115 | 60% | 71 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 27 of 42 | 64% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 37 of 92 | 40% | 30 of 77 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 35 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 70 of 115 | 60% | 21 of 61 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 45 | 68 of 113 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 7 of 20 | 35% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 27 of 44 | 61% | 8 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 10 of 31 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 27 of 42 | 64% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 21 | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brad Tavares despite believing Chris Weidman is the better fighter everywhere. He cites Weidman's two-year layoff, age (39), and horrific leg injury as major unknowns. He thinks Tavares will be a step ahead and faster, but admits he could be wrong and hopes Weidman wins. He advises against betting this fight due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Brad Tavares to win by third-round knockout, calling it his hot take. He believes Weidman's takedown attempts will be stuffed by Tavares' elite takedown defense, wearing on Weidman's gas tank. Brady notes Weidman hasn't impressed since 2017 and has been knocked out in all six losses, while Tavares is tough and has never been knocked out.
Cody argues that Tavares is a gatekeeper with no knockout power and all his wins are by decision against lower-level opponents. Weidman, despite the leg break and layoff, has a wrestling advantage and could control Tavares. He thinks the line is too favorable to Tavares and likes Weidman as a value underdog, likely by decision.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Brad Tavares, arguing that Weidman has been washed up since pre-pandemic and has declined significantly since USADA testing. He notes that Weidman has been knocked out in six of his last eight fights and gasses after round one. Levi praises Tavares' takedown defense and balance, and believes Tavares will stuff takedowns, get Weidman to a fatigue state, and either out-volume or knock him out. He is waiting for a better price but is comfortable with Tavares.
Lucrative James confidently picks Brad Tavares, citing Chris Weidman's horrific leg injury, age (39), and being washed before the injury. He believes Tavares will finish Weidman, as Weidman has been finished in six of his last seven fights. He sees no value on the underdog here.
Weidman has a clear path to victory via grappling. Tavares is not a knockout threat and has been taken down by wrestlers before. Weidman's durability has held up recently, and at +220 the line is too wide. He should be able to grind out a decision or possibly find a submission.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares over Chris Weidman. He cites Weidman's long layoff after a leg break and doubts his KO ability. He praises Tavares' takedown defense and durability, noting he hung in with Dricus du Plessis. He expects Tavares to outpoint Weidman on the feet, possibly winning by TKO in rounds 2-3 or a 30-27 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 15 of 64 | 23% | 15 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 1 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 0 | 15 of 64 | 23% | 15 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 1 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 15 of 64 | 23% | 11 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 23 of 51 | 45% | 17 of 40 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 15 of 64 | 23% | 11 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 23 of 51 | 45% | 17 of 40 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tavares (-155), Silva (+135)
Round 1
A banger at 185 pounds is on deck for the co-headliner of this Fight Night, as Tavares (19-7, 14-7 UFC) looks to hold the middleweight line against the lead-fisted Silva (22-8, 3-2 UFC). One of these two fighters will get back in the win column here and potentially push their way back into the top 15, and they will have 15 minutes at max to do so. Referee Mark Smith has donned his hard hat, and the two fighters bump fists in front of his eyes. Tavares doubles up on the jab after the bump, and Silva springs out of the way. Silva walks forward and ducks a big punch, and he misses the mark with his own heavy left hook. Silva lets go with a leg kick, and Tavares intercepts him with a powerful body kick. Tavares times a right and a left, with the left landing behind the ear and getting Silva’s attention. Tavares boots Silva upside the head, and Silva blocks most of it and throws back with a vengeance. A long jab from Tavares makes Silva stumble, but Silva gathers his bearings and knocks Tavares back with a right hand. The Hawaiian releases a kick to the ribs, a one-two and a front kick in rapid succession, and Silva attempts to tie him up and knee him in the face. The two middleweights throw from their hips, and they reset to exchange from a distance. Silva leans down to guard a body kick, and he counters a reaching Tavares with an uppercut. They trade single, long punches, and Tavares lets fly a high kick. Silva sneaks a right hand over the top to rock Tavares, and the Hawaiian wobbles back but is still very much in the fight. Silva trades back when Tavares engages with him, and Silva stings Tavares with a short combination.
“Blindado” uncoils a powerful knee and a blindingly fast right hand that gets around the guard, and Tavares collapses to his back. Smith halts the fight when Tavares goes down, and Tavares immediately complains that he was not knocked out and was still in the fight.
Regardless of the feelings of the stoppage, the result is what it is, and Silva has turned things around to record a very important knockout. Silva reminds the division of the power in his fists with this victory, and he may have claimed a spot in the top 15 at the expense of ranked Chris Curtis.
The Official Result
Bruno Silva def. Brad Tavares R1 3:35 via TKO (Knee and Punch)
Angelo picks Bruno Silva despite his recent loss, attributing it to a bad night. He believes in Silva's raw talent, power, and BJJ, and thinks he can beat Brad Tavares who is well-rounded but not exceptional at anything. He acknowledges the risk and advises others to do their own research, noting that if you think Silva is broken, then pick Tavares. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Bruno Silva as a dog to knock out Brad Tavares in the first round. He is hesitant because Silva looked awful in his last fight, appearing sluggish and drunk, but if the 'sober' Silva shows up, he has the power to knock out Tavares, who has been knocked out multiple times. Brady is scared by Silva's last performance and won't put a ton of money on him, but he still picks Silva to win early.
Cody picks Bruno Silva as an underdog, criticizing Brad Tavares as one-dimensional and not exceptional. He notes Tavares fades in later rounds and allows opponents to outwork him, as seen against Dricus du Plessis. Cody believes Silva has power and can land damaging strikes, possibly getting a knockout or winning a decision. He mentions Silva went 15 minutes with Alex Pereira and landed heavy shots.
Connor picks Tavares, arguing that Silva is one-dimensional and falls apart when his wild hooks are neutralized. He notes that Tavares is a solid defensive wrestler and technical striker, and that Silva's inefficiency will cause him to gas. However, he acknowledges that Silva hits hard and could catch Tavares if he gets into a lull, but overall Tavares should grind out a win.
Brad Tavares has good striking defense and durability, as shown against Dricus du Plessis where he was not knocked down. He can mix in takedowns to avoid Bruno Silva's power. Silva is knockout-reliant and has poor takedown defense; he tends to get outstruck by technical strikers. Tavares should be able to outwork Silva over three rounds, using combinations and leg/body kicks. Silva may slow down, allowing Tavares to increase output and win a decision.
Paul also picks Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody that Brad Tavares is not someone he likes as a favorite. He sees a path for Silva to win by decision or knockout, noting Tavares' durability may be fading. However, Paul admits he is not actually betting this fight, calling it a pass for betting purposes.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares over Bruno Silva. He notes Silva's loss to GM3 and damage from Pereira, while Tavares has a granite chin and good grappling. He thinks Tavares can use his takedowns and technical striking to win. He is not fully confident but leans toward Tavares.
Zane picks Tavares but is hesitant, noting that Tavares is fundamentally solid but hasn't evolved and often lulls in fights. He worries that Silva's power and awkwardness could catch Tavares, similar to how Dricus du Plessis did. However, he thinks Silva is too messy and inefficient, and that Tavares's defensive wrestling and jab should carry him to a decision win.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.
Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.
Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.
The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.
Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.
Who knows!!