UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019 · Welterweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jorge Masvidal
4.05 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.38 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Darren Till
2.3 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.55 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jorge Masvidal - Fight History
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 42 of 99 42% 72 of 135 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:41
Jorge Masvidal 0 39 of 91 42% 77 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 13 of 39 33% 15 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Jorge Masvidal 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 16 43% 27 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:05
Jorge Masvidal 0 5 of 11 45% 32 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 44 50% 30 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Jorge Masvidal 0 19 of 42 45% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 42 of 99 42% 34 of 84 3 of 7 5 of 8 37 of 90 0 of 0 5 of 9
Jorge Masvidal 39 of 91 42% 14 of 61 8 of 11 17 of 19 38 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 13 of 39 33% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 15 of 38 39% 5 of 26 2 of 2 8 of 10 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 7 of 16 43% 6 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 22 of 44 50% 21 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1 20 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 19 of 42 45% 8 of 29 3 of 5 8 of 8 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)

Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.

"I do think Gilbert Burns wins this fight but I am not going anywhere near these minus 450 odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.

not laying minus 500
"give me Burns I'll say Burns by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I'm going to be picking Burns but... the fact that we're in Florida... it's not making me feel like oh lock burns up in parlays"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Connor says the line is wide and getting wider, and it doesn't feel inaccurate.
"Gilbert Burns is going to run him over."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.

submission
"Gilbert's Gonna Get Us done first take down submission easy peasy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.

"the line in this fight makes no sense to me at all massive at all even though he's on three in his last three fights should not be a plus 380 Underdog to Gilbert Burns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks considered
"I do gotta end up taking Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.

first round submission, arm triangle
"I think Gilbert Burns is gonna drop masvidal in round one and sub him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Zane says the line is reasonable and not surprising.
"I would have picked an earlier version of Jorge against an earlier version of Gilbert. But now it just seems like there's a gulf."
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 94 of 201 46% 218 of 338 6 of 15 40% 1 1 16:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 67 of 140 47% 90 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 7 of 18 38% 29 of 45 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:32
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 17 35% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 20 of 58 34% 25 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:21
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 63 49% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Colby Covington 0 21 of 40 52% 62 of 86 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:34
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 12 66% 19 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Colby Covington 0 33 of 66 50% 37 of 70 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:13
Jorge Masvidal 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 13 of 19 68% 65 of 74 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:34
Jorge Masvidal 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 94 of 201 46% 84 of 190 9 of 10 1 of 1 63 of 160 6 of 8 25 of 33
Jorge Masvidal 67 of 140 47% 38 of 94 10 of 19 19 of 27 55 of 125 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 17 35% 2 of 8 0 of 3 4 of 6 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 20 of 58 34% 16 of 53 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 63 49% 18 of 42 5 of 8 8 of 13 24 of 54 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 21 of 40 52% 18 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 19
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 12 66% 5 of 7 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 33 of 66 50% 32 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0 31 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 46 45% 12 of 35 5 of 6 4 of 5 19 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 14
Jorge Masvidal 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Angelo picks Colby Covington due to his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes that Covington's non-stop takedowns and pressure will be a problem for Masvidal, similar to the first Usman fight. He mentions that Masvidal has success on the feet but Covington cuts distance quickly. He also references a source from American Top Team saying Covington dominated Masvidal in training but Masvidal would touch him up on the feet.

"the pick here is definitely kobe because i think his non-stop wrestling will be a problem for george"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Big Brady picks Colby Covington to win by decision, citing Covington's relentless wrestling pace and volume striking. He notes that Covington will likely take Masvidal down repeatedly, especially early, and that Masvidal's path to victory is only by knockout. Brady believes Covington's cardio and pressure will be too much for the 37-year-old Masvidal, who has slowed down. He mentions that Covington has successfully implemented this game plan against other top welterweights like Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos.

Covington by decision
"I like colby to win here probably by i'll say decision for colby covington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Cody sees Colby as an elite welterweight who pushed Usman to the limit, with superior pace, wrestling, and durability. He believes Colby's chain wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Masvidal, who has poor takedown defense and fades late. Cody has already parlayed Colby with Kevin Holland and also bet Colby by round 5 at +3000, expecting a late finish or decision.

Parlayed with Kevin Holland; Colby Covington round 5 at +3000
"i think he pays off this price in fold i've already parlayed him up with uh with kevin holland a little bit further down the card um and i have colby covington round five at plus three thousand"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Daniel Levi picks Colby Covington to win by unanimous decision. He emphasizes Covington's relentless pace and takedown attempts, noting that even if the first few takedowns are stuffed, Covington will keep shooting and eventually grind down Masvidal. He acknowledges Masvidal's underrated takedown defense and dangerous striking, especially early, but believes Covington's pressure and cardio will be decisive in the later rounds. He also mentions that Covington's recent war with Usman might be a concern but still favors him.

"i'm still going with colby to come out here push the pace on him might be kind of close early but down the stretch i do see just the relentless pace the takedown attempt that's her takedown attempt like like …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Colby Covington is neck and neck with Kamaru Usman, one of the best in the world, and his wrestling threat will force Masvidal to think too much. Covington's cardio, improved striking, and volume will overwhelm Masvidal over five rounds. Masvidal is the better technical striker but lacks the wrestling and cardio to keep up. Covington via decision is the likely outcome.

Covington via decision at -105
"i like covington here the spot that i'm looking to take advantage of though i know jorge got finished in his last fight i think that was just kamar usman and his striking skills uh and power everything just culminating …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Paul argues that Colby is a premier talent while Masvidal is a journeyman with 15 losses and poor takedown defense. He highlights Colby's wrestling pressure and cardio as decisive, noting Masvidal's wins are early finishes and his losses come when opponents survive the first two rounds. Paul plans to bet Colby live if Masvidal is competitive early, expecting Colby to take over in rounds 3-5.

Live betting strategy: bet Colby after round 2 if Masvidal is competitive early
"i am definitely team colby covington on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Colby Covington

The MMA Guru picks Colby Covington over Jorge Masvidal, despite acknowledging Masvidal's KO power and the odds being too wide. He praises Covington's chin, referencing his ability to take clean shots from Kamaru Usman. He predicts Covington will use cage pressure, takedowns, and grinding to wear Masvidal down, eventually securing a rear-naked choke in the fourth round. He notes Masvidal's age, inactivity, and potential rib injury as factors, and believes Covington's active style and improved striking will be key.

method: submission (rear-naked choke), round: 4, odds comment: 'odds are so wrong... should be two to one favorite'
"i'm going to call a colby covington re-naked choke finish in round four"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
KO (punch) R2 1:02 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 1 21 of 40 52% 32 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 52 59% 56 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Jorge Masvidal 0 23 of 42 54% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 21 of 40 52% 15 of 32 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 10
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 52 59% 13 of 33 3 of 4 15 of 15 27 of 47 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 14 of 30 46% 8 of 22 5 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 23 of 42 54% 12 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 10 80% 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.

"i think it's a good pick we got some nice insight there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.

Usman by decision; parlay piece
"give me kamara usman for the win... solid parlay piece"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think that the first the way that the first fight plays out is the same thing here he just wears on georgie up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with uzmana and still"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.

Usman by decision -130
"i'm going kamar oozman by decision we're getting minus 130 on that line right now i think that's a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think it's usman oozman by decision all over again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.

"i'm gonna go with kamaru osman of course"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 94 of 151 62% 263 of 341 5 of 16 31% 0 0 16:38
Jorge Masvidal 0 66 of 125 52% 88 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 18 of 40 45% 25 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Jorge Masvidal 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 32 84% 94 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:40
Jorge Masvidal 0 20 of 32 62% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 27 51% 46 of 61 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 31 74% 75 of 90 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:37
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 21 57% 23 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:31
Jorge Masvidal 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 94 of 151 62% 43 of 96 49 of 53 2 of 2 42 of 86 39 of 49 13 of 16
Jorge Masvidal 66 of 125 52% 23 of 69 29 of 39 14 of 17 38 of 90 27 of 34 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 7 of 8 2 of 2
Jorge Masvidal 24 of 43 55% 13 of 28 5 of 9 6 of 6 16 of 32 7 of 10 1 of 1
2 Kamaru Usman 27 of 32 84% 10 of 15 17 of 17 0 of 0 11 of 14 16 of 18 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 20 of 32 62% 5 of 16 11 of 12 4 of 4 10 of 21 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 27 51% 10 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 14 2 of 5 6 of 8
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 19 63% 2 of 8 6 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 31 74% 9 of 15 13 of 15 1 of 1 9 of 14 14 of 17 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 15 40% 2 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 12 of 21 57% 7 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 1 5 of 6
Jorge Masvidal 4 of 16 25% 1 of 8 3 of 5 0 of 3 2 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.

"i see usman uh winning a decision here pretty comfortably ... i think it should be a little bit wider than that honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.

predicts decision win for Usman
"I'll lean with Guzman as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.

lock of the night play, bet at -267
"c'mon lucemon is the better fighter he is gonna win this fight and I've never been so convicted"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.

Mentions Masvidal has a 25% chance of winning, says 'mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled'
"mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled that's my prediction"
WIN vs Nate Diaz
TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 2 112 of 179 62% 114 of 184 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:56
Nate Diaz 0 43 of 104 41% 125 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 35 of 54 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Nate Diaz 0 13 of 27 48% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Jorge Masvidal 1 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Nate Diaz 0 11 of 31 35% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Jorge Masvidal 0 38 of 67 56% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Nate Diaz 0 19 of 46 41% 57 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 112 of 179 62% 78 of 136 27 of 35 7 of 8 52 of 92 20 of 25 40 of 62
Nate Diaz 43 of 104 41% 23 of 74 12 of 21 8 of 9 33 of 91 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 35 of 54 64% 21 of 34 12 of 18 2 of 2 10 of 15 7 of 9 18 of 30
Nate Diaz 13 of 27 48% 7 of 19 3 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 39 of 58 67% 29 of 47 7 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 32 11 of 13 10 of 13
Nate Diaz 11 of 31 35% 4 of 21 4 of 6 3 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jorge Masvidal 38 of 67 56% 28 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 24 of 45 2 of 3 12 of 19
Nate Diaz 19 of 46 41% 12 of 34 5 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 0
WIN vs Ben Askren
KO (flying knee) R1 0:05 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ben Askren 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ben Askren 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ben Askren 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ben Askren 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Darren Till
KO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 21 of 43 48% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Darren Till 1 35 of 72 48% 41 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Darren Till 0 19 of 39 48% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Darren Till 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 43 48% 17 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 35 of 72 48% 18 of 51 10 of 12 7 of 9 31 of 65 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 13 of 27 48% 10 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 19 of 39 48% 10 of 27 6 of 8 3 of 4 17 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 33 48% 8 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 5 14 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephen Thompson 1 70 of 156 44% 70 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 42 of 142 29% 42 of 142 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephen Thompson 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Stephen Thompson 1 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jorge Masvidal 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Stephen Thompson 0 39 of 86 45% 39 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jorge Masvidal 0 16 of 66 24% 16 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephen Thompson 70 of 156 44% 49 of 117 17 of 34 4 of 5 70 of 155 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 42 of 142 29% 9 of 79 5 of 13 28 of 50 39 of 137 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephen Thompson 13 of 27 48% 9 of 19 3 of 6 1 of 2 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 33 36% 0 of 13 2 of 5 10 of 15 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Stephen Thompson 18 of 43 41% 14 of 37 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 14 of 43 32% 3 of 23 0 of 3 11 of 17 12 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Stephen Thompson 39 of 86 45% 26 of 61 12 of 24 1 of 1 39 of 85 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 16 of 66 24% 6 of 43 3 of 5 7 of 18 15 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Till - Fight History
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
LOSS vs Derek Brunson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 69 of 157 43% 100 of 188 2 of 13 15% 0 0 2:29
Darren Till 0 41 of 99 41% 50 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 30 36% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 12 of 24 50% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Robert Whittaker 1 15 of 30 50% 42 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Darren Till 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Darren Till 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 34 38% 14 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Till 0 8 of 19 42% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Robert Whittaker 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:33
Darren Till 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 69 of 157 43% 32 of 116 7 of 10 30 of 31 57 of 139 7 of 11 5 of 7
Darren Till 41 of 99 41% 29 of 86 7 of 8 5 of 5 31 of 87 7 of 9 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 11 of 30 36% 4 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 6 10 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 24 50% 8 of 20 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 18 3 of 3 3 of 3
2 Robert Whittaker 15 of 30 50% 7 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 7
Darren Till 3 of 12 25% 0 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 13 of 32 40% 8 of 26 0 of 1 5 of 5 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Till 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Robert Whittaker 13 of 34 38% 7 of 26 1 of 2 5 of 6 12 of 31 1 of 3 0 of 0
Darren Till 8 of 19 42% 6 of 16 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 17 of 31 54% 6 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 7 14 of 26 3 of 5 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 23 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Whittaker because he believes Whittaker is the more talented fighter and will throw more volume. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after the Adesanya KO, but thinks if it holds up, Whittaker runs away with it. He is not impressed with Till's recent win over Gastelum and sees Till as basic. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker.

Whittaker by decision
"I just see him doing more I think he's that more talented fighter honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel leans Whittaker, citing his power and strength, but acknowledges Till's late-round success and hunger. He notes Whittaker's defensive flaws and Till's limited but effective striking. He sees a possible second-round knockout for Whittaker but is not confident, calling it a dog-or-pass fight from a betting perspective.

dog or pass from betting perspective
"i slightly do lean whitaker... i feel like he has more power i feel like till is good and he's got good timing... but from a betting perspective it would be dog or pass for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker is the better overall striker with superior movement and combination punching. He will be able to cover range effectively and land blitzes, while Till may struggle with Whittaker's speed and variety. Whittaker's chin is not completely shot despite the Adesanya KO, and he should shake off rust and finish Till in the third or fourth round.

Whittaker by TKO in round 3 or 4
"i do like whitaker to win this fight i think he's actually even gonna knock out derentel probably in the third or fourth round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till, arguing that elite strikers beat Robert Whittaker, citing Whittaker's losses to Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after wars with Romero and the Adesanya KO, while Till has had time to recover and adjust to middleweight. He predicts Till will catch Whittaker lunging in with a left hand and finish him by TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round
"I think that Darren Till wins. I really do. I think Elite Strikers beat Robert Whitaker."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 40 of 81 49% 50 of 96 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
Kelvin Gastelum 0 36 of 67 53% 37 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 11 of 23 47% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
Kelvin Gastelum 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Darren Till 0 14 of 25 56% 18 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 23 52% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Darren Till 0 15 of 33 45% 17 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:27
Kelvin Gastelum 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 40 of 81 49% 8 of 41 11 of 14 21 of 26 26 of 63 14 of 18 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 36 of 67 53% 19 of 48 2 of 2 15 of 17 34 of 61 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 11 of 23 47% 1 of 8 2 of 4 8 of 11 2 of 11 9 of 12 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 7 of 16 43% 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 6 6 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 14 of 25 56% 2 of 11 4 of 5 8 of 9 12 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 7 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 15 of 33 45% 5 of 22 5 of 5 5 of 6 12 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 17 of 28 60% 12 of 23 1 of 1 4 of 4 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jorge Masvidal
KO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 21 of 43 48% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Darren Till 1 35 of 72 48% 41 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Darren Till 0 19 of 39 48% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Darren Till 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 43 48% 17 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 35 of 72 48% 18 of 51 10 of 12 7 of 9 31 of 65 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 13 of 27 48% 10 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 19 of 39 48% 10 of 27 6 of 8 3 of 4 17 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 33 48% 8 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 5 14 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
LOSS vs Tyron Woodley
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · May 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 30 of 126 23% 31 of 127 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 38 of 126 30% 40 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Till 0 6 of 28 21% 6 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Darren Till 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Darren Till 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 7 of 33 21% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Darren Till 0 3 of 23 13% 4 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 9 of 24 37% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 30 of 126 23% 8 of 92 13 of 19 9 of 15 29 of 125 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 38 of 126 30% 18 of 87 5 of 12 15 of 27 34 of 121 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 5 of 18 27% 0 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 4 of 12 33% 0 of 6 1 of 2 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 6 of 28 21% 1 of 22 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 25 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 9 7 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 8 of 31 25% 3 of 24 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 32 28% 7 of 25 0 of 2 2 of 5 9 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Darren Till 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 7 of 33 21% 4 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 6 6 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Darren Till 3 of 23 13% 1 of 17 1 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 24 37% 5 of 17 2 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 4:20 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Till · Oct 21, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4