Career Averages - Dominick Reyes
Career Averages - Volkan Oezdemir
Dominick Reyes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 34 of 73 | 46% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 17 | 17 of 21 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 42 of 80 | 52% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 11 | 29 of 38 | 41 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 17 of 28 | 60% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 13 of 28 | 46% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 15 of 35 | 42% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 12 of 15 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 12 of 24 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.
Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.
Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.
Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.
Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.
Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.
The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.
James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.
This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.
Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.
Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.
Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.
James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.
James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.
The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.
The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.
Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.
Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.
Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.
Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 121 of 162 | 74% | 172 of 232 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 48 of 76 | 63% | 53 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 73 of 86 | 84% | 119 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 121 of 162 | 74% | 110 of 149 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 48 of 75 | 17 of 22 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 48 of 76 | 63% | 38 of 64 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 73 of 86 | 84% | 72 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 19 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.
Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.
Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.
Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.
Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.
Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.
Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 2 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 2 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.
Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.
Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.
Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.
Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.
Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.
Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.
The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)
Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.
The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.
Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.
Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.
Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.
Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.
The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.
Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 63 of 108 | 58% | 68 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 77 of 136 | 56% | 78 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 39 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 45 of 81 | 55% | 45 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 29 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 63 of 108 | 58% | 39 of 81 | 21 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 57 of 100 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dominick Reyes | 77 of 136 | 56% | 61 of 119 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 70 of 122 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 39 of 66 | 59% | 25 of 51 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 39 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 45 of 81 | 55% | 36 of 71 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 24 of 42 | 57% | 14 of 30 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dominick Reyes | 32 of 55 | 58% | 25 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.
Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.
Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.
The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.
Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.
The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 41 of 89 | 46% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 41 of 89 | 46% | 25 of 70 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 37 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 15 of 36 | 41% | 2 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 26 of 53 | 49% | 23 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.
Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.
The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.
Volkan Oezdemir - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 35 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 35 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oezdemir (-240); Menifield (+190)
Round 1
With dueling finish rates right at or around 75%, a pair of fist-first light heavyweights meet for the first time despite a litany of experience in the Octagon thus far. “No Time” Oezdemir (20-8, 8-7 UFC) knows there is no time for a loss, as that would drop his promotional record to .500. Menifield (17-5-1, 10-5-1 UFC) is a long way away from that line, and he has put a pair of knockout losses last year in the rear-view mirror with two victories thus far in 2025. Someone’s fortunes will drop at the end of what should be a concussive matchup, one that kicks off in front of referee Marc Goddard with a sporting touch of gloves.
Oezdemir wades towards Menifield, but he ends up getting smacked with a surprise left hook on the entry. Oezdemir backs off to find another way in, and he jabs to set up twos and a body kick. Menifield bounces off the fence to shake it off, and he avoids a swatting right hand while strafing to the side. Oezdemir stays after him with punches that bounce off the guard, and he squares up to drill Menifield in the chest with a knee. Menifield fires back with an overhand right that is out of range, and another vicious knee from “No Time” crashes into Menifield’s chin. The Swiss fighter stands Menifield up with a barrage of fiery fists, knocking Menifield’s head around and putting him in jeopardy. Menifield sways and moves, but Oezdemir’s boxing is relentless and destructive.
Oezdemir stuns Menifield with a left hand and finishes the job with a bevy of brutal blows. Like a puppet that’s had its strings cut, Menifield slumps to his side and is kept upright only because of the fence next to him.
The lights are on, but no one’s home. Goddard recognizes that Menifield is dreaming of his ancestors and halts the fight, and he immediately tends to the wrecked Texan. The “boop” is back.
The Official Result
Volkan Oezdemir def. Alonzo Menifield R1 1:27 via KO (Knee and Punches)
Angelo leans Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, despite rooting for Menifield. He notes Oezdemir's leg kicks were effective against Carlos Ulberg and could neutralize Menifield's power. Both are similar aging vets with above-average striking and below-average wrestling, but Oezdemir is cleaner and has better cardio. Angelo calls the odds an atrocity and suggests value on Menifield.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by decision, noting his higher level of competition and defensive responsibility. He expects the fight to go the distance and favors Oezdemir's output and experience over Menifield.
Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir confidently, despite feeling it might be a trap. He notes that Menifield has only beaten green or inexperienced fighters and has poor takedown defense. Volkan has fought higher-level competition and has power. Cody believes Volkan's experience and power will be too much for Menifield, who tends to freeze against power punchers.
Connor picks Oezdemir, noting that Menifield lacks the tools to exploit Oezdemir's weaknesses. He explains that Oezdemir struggles against a good jab or aggressive ground game, but Menifield relies on power and size, which Oezdemir can handle. Connor cites Oezdemir's wins over similar fighters like Johnny Walker and Paul Craig.
Lucrative James picks Volkan Oezdemir but with low confidence, calling it a close fight. He notes Volkan's technical striking and leg kicks, but acknowledges Menifield's athleticism and power. He thinks Volkan will win a decision by doing slightly more on the feet, but admits he may bet on Menifield as an underdog. He also mentions the over/under prop.
Oezdemir has power and can exploit Menifield's durability issues. Menifield is a live underdog with power of his own. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet than the moneyline, as both have knockout potential.
Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing with Cody. He notes that all metrics point to Volkan, and Menifield's wins are against lower-level opponents. Paul mentions that Menifield has been knocked out quickly by power punchers, and Volkan has the power to do the same.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, citing Oezdemir's experience and takedown defense. He notes Menifield's poor decision-making and believes Oezdemir will out-strike him. He predicts a second-round TKO win for Oezdemir.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oezdemir. He notes that Menifield's best chance is if Oezdemir has a bad night, but Oezdemir's pressure and aggression should overwhelm Menifield. Zane highlights Oezdemir's experience against higher-level competition and Menifield's tendency to lose to fighters who don't respect his power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 96 of 183 | 52% | 96 of 183 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 98 of 204 | 48% | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 45 of 84 | 53% | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 96 of 183 | 52% | 51 of 131 | 17 of 24 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 182 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 98 of 204 | 48% | 81 of 182 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 51 | 56% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 24 of 60 | 40% | 18 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 28 of 59 | 47% | 11 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 13 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 29 of 60 | 48% | 23 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 39 of 73 | 53% | 28 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 45 of 84 | 53% | 40 of 78 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo initially was very confident in Ulberg but became more hesitant after reviewing Oezdemir's resume and chin. He still picks Ulberg as the much better striker but acknowledges Oezdemir's takedown threat and experience. He notes Oezdemir hasn't been knocked out since 2020.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the better striker with more volume and power, and Oezdemir is unlikely to wrestle. Brady notes Oezdemir has looked like he's losing a step, citing the Paul Craig fight where he seemed slow. He expects Ulberg to outwork Oezdemir over 15 minutes in a competitive but clear decision.
Cody picks Ulberg, citing his speed, power, and improved cardio and grappling. He notes that Oezdemir is a first-round knockout threat but fades in later rounds and has been taken down. Ulberg's diverse skill set and ability to mix takedowns give him multiple paths to victory. He expects Ulberg to win by decision or late knockout.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but notes that Oezdemir could win if he pressures and lands big combinations. He compares Ulberg to Charbel Magomedov, saying he is fast but vulnerable when pressured. Connor expects a sticky split decision where Ulberg jabs from range and Oezdemir has moments of success, but Ulberg's speed and reach should edge it.
Daniel Vreeland is confident Carlos Ulberg will win, citing his superior athleticism, speed, and slick striking. He praises Ulberg's left hook and step-back counter. He views Volkan Oezdemir as a solid but limited gatekeeper who is too meat-and-potatoes for the new breed. Vreeland predicts a left hook knockout by Ulberg.
James does not give a clear pick for this fight, citing inside information from Ulberg's camp that he keeps private. He notes the odds seem based on recency bias and that Ulberg is stepping up in competition. He suggests the line may be off but does not reveal his lean.
Paul agrees, highlighting Ulberg's speed and technical striking advantage. He thinks Oezdemir will struggle to land his power shots and may force a dogfight, but Ulberg's improved cardio and fight IQ will carry him. He notes that Ulberg's grappling is a question mark, but Oezdemir doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir, despite acknowledging Oezdemir's potential to fraud-check prospects. He notes Oezdemir's hype was built on not getting hit, but since then only has a KO over Johnny Walker and couldn't finish Paul Craig. He believes Ulberg is more talented, trains at a good gym (City Kickboxing), and is now or never at 34. He predicts a competitive decision win for Ulberg.
Zane picks Ulberg, arguing that his jab and range control will frustrate Oezdemir, who struggles against kickboxers that sit on a jab. He notes that Oezdemir's poor defensive striking and fragile confidence will be exposed if Ulberg can stick him from distance. Zane compares it to the Rakic fight, expecting a split decision where Ulberg's jab wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.
Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.
Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.
JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.
Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.
Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.
Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.
Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.
Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.
I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.
Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 108 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 57 of 121 | 47% | 171 of 251 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 46 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 31 of 64 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 54 of 78 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 86 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 42 of 81 | 51% | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 34 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 57 of 121 | 47% | 42 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 58 | 44% | 17 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 20 of 36 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.
Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.
Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 33 of 126 | 26% | 41 of 136 | 0 of 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 72 of 129 | 55% | 108 of 170 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 47 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 12 of 62 | 19% | 13 of 63 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 33 of 126 | 26% | 18 of 102 | 10 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 120 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| Paul Craig | 72 of 129 | 55% | 45 of 101 | 10 of 11 | 17 of 17 | 50 of 97 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 6 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 16 of 53 | 30% | 10 of 44 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 27 of 48 | 56% | 21 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 12 of 62 | 19% | 5 of 50 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
| Paul Craig | 29 of 52 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 |
Angelo picks Volkan Oezdemir, noting his 80% takedown defense and that he has no desire to grapple, unlike Paul Craig's previous opponents. He says Craig's only path is a submission, but Oezdemir will defend takedowns and outstrike him. He also suggests a prop bet on Paul Craig to win inside the distance with 'decision no action' as a safety net.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a 'horrible matchup' for Paul Craig, as Oezdemir has elite takedown defense and no reason to grapple. Oezdemir has a massive striking advantage and power. Craig's path to victory is a Hail Mary submission, but Oezdemir should knock him out early.
Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing that minus 150 is an excellent price. He notes Craig's wins come from opponents making mistakes and that Oezdemir has power and good takedown defense. Cody thinks Craig will shoot early, get stuffed, and then get knocked out. He also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes because Craig either gets finished quickly or submits quickly.
Daniel Levi hesitantly picks Paul Craig, acknowledging that Oezdemir will likely dominate until he gets caught in a submission. He notes that Craig has a knack for pulling off triangle chokes, and his opponents often get carried away and fall into his guard. Levi points out that Oezdemir has looked lost in his last two fights and may not be fully invested. He admits it's a risky pick but believes Craig can find an opportunistic submission again.
Oezdemir has 80% takedown defense and Craig's takedown game is not solid. Oezdemir will keep it standing and find the knockout. Craig's Cinderella run ends here. Oezdemir finishes him in round one or two.
Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir at -150, calling it a good value play. He believes Oezdemir can keep the fight standing and destroy Craig on the feet. Paul notes Craig's wrestling is not special and Oezdemir has good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's magic run will end eventually. Paul also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Paul Craig, despite acknowledging he often picks against Craig and loses. He believes Craig's offensive grappling has improved significantly, as shown in his second fight with Shogun. Craig is training with Tom Aspinall and will mix in takedowns. Oezdemir has power but Craig can pull guard and has submission threats. The Guru expects Craig to get a takedown and dominate on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 66 of 108 | 61% | 76 of 118 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 48 of 102 | 47% | 56 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 66 of 108 | 61% | 43 of 82 | 20 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 59 of 100 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 48 of 102 | 47% | 23 of 67 | 3 of 12 | 22 of 23 | 41 of 92 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 27 of 41 | 65% | 18 of 32 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 19 of 34 | 55% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 26 of 41 | 63% | 17 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 32 | 40% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win a close decision. He notes Ankalaev is a good striker with a well-rounded game, but this is a step up in competition. Oezdemir is more hittable and has been finished before. He thinks Ankalaev will slightly edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns. He hates the price tag but believes Ankalaev gets it done.
Cody is fully sold on Ankalaev, calling him a well-rounded package with wrestling, pressure, cardio, and submission game. He thinks Ankalaev could be the best LHW after Jones. He notes Oezdemir has decent takedown defense (80%) but has been inactive (only 2 fights in 2 years) and coming off a knee injury. He expects Ankalaev to pressure, tire Oezdemir, and get takedowns in later rounds.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting his improvement and discipline. He believes Oezdemir hasn't improved and is too basic, relying on hooks and overhands. Daniel thinks Ankalaev will pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. He acknowledges Oezdemir's toughness but sees Ankalaev as the more complete fighter with more ways to win.
Ankalaev is patient and disciplined, with excellent striking defense and takedowns. Oezdemir's volume could be a factor, but Ankalaev can win wherever the fight goes. He likely controls the fight and wins a decision, possibly with a submission if he grapples.
Paul agrees strongly, saying Ankalaev has all the skills and on any given night could become champion. He thinks Ankalaev can beat Jan on his best night. He is not jumping off the Ankalaev train.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Volkan Oezdemir. He thinks Ankalaev is more technical on the feet and has great grappling to fall back on. He notes Oezdemir's recent KO loss to Prochazka and long layoff may affect his confidence and aggression. He expects Oezdemir to be hesitant, giving Ankalaev space to work. He predicts a close 29-28 decision for Ankalaev, possibly with Oezdemir winning the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 41 of 92 | 44% | 44 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 39 of 83 | 46% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 41 of 92 | 44% | 30 of 76 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 41 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 33 of 73 | 45% | 29 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 39 of 83 | 46% | 28 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 39 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 60 | 43% | 23 of 55 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by first-round knockout, citing his veteran experience and higher level of competition. He thinks Procházka is talented but this step up is too much, and Oezdemir can use takedowns or striking to finish him.
Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, citing his experience against top competition (Reyes, Smith) and power. He criticizes Prochazka's competition level (washed-up veterans) and notes Prochazka puts weight on his front leg, leaving him open to calf kicks. Levi believes Oezdemir will clip Prochazka and get a KO, as Prochazka is not ready for this level yet.
Procházka is a big light heavyweight with heavy hands and a path to victory via wrestling if needed. Oezdemir relies on leg kicks, but Procházka can counter them. Expects Procházka to put Oezdemir on his back and finish him, likely by first-round KO. The line at +140 is appealing, but staying away from UFC debutants.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
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