vs
+210 -225
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rafael Alves
1.85 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.3 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
44.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marc Diakiese
2.54 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.64 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
3.29 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Rafael Alves
Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
FanDuel +500
Marc Diakiese
Moneyline
FanDuel -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
BetMGM +130
Rafael Alves - Fight History
LOSS vs Nurullo Aliev
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nurullo Aliev 0 6 of 17 35% 25 of 36 0 of 0 --- 2 1 1:18
Rafael Alves 0 19 of 45 42% 92 of 140 3 of 4 75% 0 1 10:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nurullo Aliev 0 4 of 9 44% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Alves 0 0 of 6 0% 9 of 16 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:27
2 Nurullo Aliev 0 0 of 3 0% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Rafael Alves 0 6 of 10 60% 47 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:13
3 Nurullo Aliev 0 2 of 5 40% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:18
Rafael Alves 0 13 of 29 44% 36 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nurullo Aliev 6 of 17 35% 2 of 11 2 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 19 of 45 42% 19 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 2 1 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nurullo Aliev 4 of 9 44% 1 of 4 2 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 0 of 6 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nurullo Aliev 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 6 of 10 60% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Nurullo Aliev 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 28
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Alves. He notes that Alves is a very hard fighter to beat because he puts opponents in hard spots, as seen in his fight with Demir Magomedov. He believes Aliev is too unproven and that this is too much too soon for him. He also criticizes the matchmaking, suggesting Aliev should be fighting someone like Carl Deaton instead.

"I think this is too much too soon for Alia."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Zane picks Alves, despite acknowledging that Aliev is an interesting prospect. He notes that Aliev is not experienced enough and not comfortable on the feet or on top, and that Alves is an athletic freak who fights hard everywhere. He compares the dynamic to the Blanchfield-Andrade fight, where the less experienced fighter struggled with the athleticism. He also mentions that Aliev's win over Josh Wick was unimpressive, as he did little for the first four minutes.

"I'm just going to go with my gut and say that Elvis is just an athletic freak."
LOSS vs Drew Dober
KO (punch to the body) R3 1:30 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 62 of 151 41% 62 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Rafael Alves 0 37 of 68 54% 46 of 80 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Alves 0 11 of 22 50% 19 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
2 Drew Dober 0 37 of 95 38% 37 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Rafael Alves 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Drew Dober 1 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Rafael Alves 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 62 of 151 41% 38 of 121 20 of 24 4 of 6 60 of 149 0 of 0 2 of 2
Rafael Alves 37 of 68 54% 24 of 55 8 of 8 5 of 5 31 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 11 of 36 30% 7 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 11 of 22 50% 8 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 16 0 of 0 5 of 6
2 Drew Dober 37 of 95 38% 24 of 79 11 of 13 2 of 3 36 of 94 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rafael Alves 20 of 38 52% 13 of 31 6 of 6 1 of 1 19 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Drew Dober 14 of 20 70% 7 of 13 6 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rafael Alves 6 of 8 75% 3 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober to win by second-round knockout. He trusts Dober's durability, cardio, and improved takedown defense. He notes Alves is dangerous on the ground but has not wrestled in his UFC fights. He expects a war with Dober's chin holding up and Alves fading.

"i like dober to win i liked over to win by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody picks Dober, noting his excellent chin, durability, and ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges that Alves is dangerous early with power and opportunistic grappling, but thinks Dober's Muay Thai, precision, and cardio will take over after the first round. He mentions that Dober is a gatekeeper who can handle guys like Alves. He also notes that Alves is a good pick for fantasy because he's a two-to-one underdog with upside.

Alves by submission at +475 (monitoring)
"i will take dober but a former sponsor of the show... alves is a good pick he's a two-to-one underdog he's going to be valued properly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Daniel bet on Alves at +200, citing his athleticism, explosiveness, and guillotine threat. He notes Alves has outperformed his price tag in both UFC fights, including dropping Damir Ismagulov. He worries about Dober's chin after the Terence McKinney fight and thinks Alves can finish early if he doesn't blow his load. He acknowledges Dober's durability and veteran savvy, but believes Alves' experience (30 pro fights) and power give him the edge. He calls it a high-variance fight but likes the value.

1 unit bet at +200; mentions Alves could win by guillotine or flying knee
"I actually took a one unit shot on Rafael Alves at plus 200."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Rafael Alves

Preet took a half-unit on Alves to win in round one at +650, citing Alves' quick-starting style and Dober's rough weight cut. He notes Alves nearly finished Damir Ismagulov and finished Marty Casey early. He believes Alves will club and sub Dober, capitalizing on Dober's deteriorating durability.

Alves wins in round 1 +650
"i just took a half unit shot on him to win in round one at plus 650"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Paul leans Dober but is scared because Alves is dangerous on the ground. He notes that Dober's takedown defense is not great and Alves is opportunistic with submissions. He thinks Dober should win the striking exchanges, but if it goes to the mat, Alves could snatch a submission. He mentions that Alves by submission is a prop to monitor.

Alves by submission at +475 (monitoring)
"i'm kind of scared because i know that dober is so dangerous on the feet... but if it gets to the mat like alves has shown that like his grappling is super super opportunistic"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru predicts Drew Dober wins by 29-27 decision (with a 10-8 round three). He expects Rafael Alves to come out strong, hurt Dober, and threaten submissions in round one, but Dober will survive. As Alves gasses, Dober takes over in rounds two and three, landing big punches and ground-and-pound.

29-27 decision
"29-27 to drew doba based on a 10-8 round in round three"
WIN vs Marc Diakiese
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:48 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his leg kicks and body shots to tire out Alves, who has cardio issues. He notes that Alves is dangerous but has no takedowns in the UFC and tends to gas. Angelo believes if Diakiese stays composed and technical, he should win straightforwardly.

"i'm going with mark here after the year-long layoff i think the leg kicks will help sort of remove some of that alves power i think the body shots will speed up uh alvez's eventual gassing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Big Brady picks Rafael Alves as an upset, citing Alves' impressive UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he showed improved cardio and power. He notes Alves is dangerous everywhere: on the feet with knockout power and on the mat with a black belt in BJJ. Brady expects Alves to hurt Diakiese on the feet, then snatch a submission when Diakiese shoots for a takedown.

Alves by submission
"I'm actually here with the upset here i'm going to take rafael elvis to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody believes Diakiese will use his reach and footwork to stay outside and pick apart Alves, who is low-volume and explosive but fades. He notes Alves missed weight badly and is a 'weight bully' who struggles with cardio. He expects Diakiese to win a decision.

"i got dear casey here and it's early enough in the card that i probably will have them a little higher than i should"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his speed and athletic advantage. He believes Diakiese can win a decision if he minds his P's and Q's against the experienced Alves. Levi acknowledges Alves's power and guillotine threat but thinks Diakiese's superior athleticism will be the difference.

"give me march and casey to get it done"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Jacob is very confident in Marc Diakiese, calling him the real deal and predicting he will dominate. He mentions Diakiese's training with Khamzat Chimaev and his ability to use offensive wrestling if needed. Jacob thinks Alves is being fed to Diakiese as a winnable fight and expects a dominant performance.

"yeah mark's going to absolutely dominate this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul thinks Diakiese is the better athlete with better footwork and speed. He notes Alves is low-volume and explosive but fades. He expects Diakiese to stay on the outside and outpoint Alves. He is confident despite Diakiese's poor last performance.

"got to go with the bone crusher to get back on track"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

The Guru picks Marc Diakiese by unanimous decision (30-27). He expects Diakiese to establish range with his jab and calf kicks, gradually breaking down Alves over three rounds. Alves may have moments with a takedown or big shots, but Diakiese's calf kicks will limit Alves' movement and lead to a dominant performance.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to call a 30-27 for marc jacozy here over rafael alves"
LOSS vs Damir Ismagulov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 1 30 of 63 47% 36 of 69 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:16
Rafael Alves 0 56 of 126 44% 141 of 220 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 1 2 of 7 28% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Rafael Alves 0 17 of 23 73% 68 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:46
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Alves 0 24 of 66 36% 50 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 16 of 30 53% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Rafael Alves 0 15 of 37 40% 23 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 30 of 63 47% 20 of 50 6 of 7 4 of 6 28 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 2
Rafael Alves 56 of 126 44% 30 of 91 16 of 24 10 of 11 37 of 104 0 of 0 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 2
Rafael Alves 17 of 23 73% 4 of 9 7 of 8 6 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 20
2 Damir Ismagulov 12 of 26 46% 7 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 24 of 66 36% 14 of 49 6 of 12 4 of 5 23 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Damir Ismagulov 16 of 30 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 2 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 15 of 37 40% 12 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Big Brady confidently picks Ismagulov, calling him two levels above Alves stylistically. He highlights Ismagulov's 100% takedown defense, phenomenal striking defense (69%), and Alves' poor cardio and chin. He expects a knockout finish, noting Alves has been knocked out three times and slows after the first round. He acknowledges the layoff as the only concern.

Ismagulov by knockout
"i'm going to take is mcglove to win by knockout i think he gets his first finish in the fc here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody Saftic picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his technical boxing, takedown defense, and unflappable style. He notes that Ismagulov has beaten tough opponents like Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises, and that Alves has struggled with weight cuts and has a journeyman record. Saftic believes Ismagulov will win by decision, controlling the fight with his jab and staying out of danger. He suggests a parlay with the over in the Spencer fight.

Ismagulov by decision, parlay with over 2.5 in Spencer/Dumont
"i got dimir ishmagulov i got him by decision i think uh yeah and you mentioned he's maybe a dull fighter maybe he's not made the most appealing or fan friendly style but like as far as wager friendly as …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Daniel Levi picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his smooth, well-rounded striking and discipline. He respects Rafael Alves but notes that Alves missed weight due to personal tragedy and may not be fully focused. He predicts Ismagulov will cruise to a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges the price is steep and there's no betting value.

30-27 decision
"i see is my gulab cruising to a nice 30-27 decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Matt picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, despite a two-year layoff. He praises Ismagulov's technical striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He notes Alves has cardio issues and a history of missing weight, which could worsen his gas tank. He expects Ismagulov to keep the fight standing and outpoint Alves over three rounds. He also considers a third-round finish prop at +800 due to Alves' potential fade, but prefers the decision line at -125.

Damir Ismagulov by decision (-125), Damir Ismagulov round 3 (+800)
"i think demiro's my goal goes out there keeps his fight on the feet and absolutely outstrike alves over 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Paul Shaughnessy picks Ismagulov, noting that he looks like a top-10 talent and that Alves is moving up in weight after missing weight badly. He believes Ismagulov's jab and takedown defense will be too much, and that Alves will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He suggests passing on the moneyline due to the price, but likes Ismagulov by decision or in a parlay.

Ismagulov by decision, parlay
"damir is the pick but i'm hearing i want to hear what you have to say maybe we can find a prop to play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

The MMA Guru predicts Damir Ismagulov will win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Rafael Alves to win the first round with early takedowns and big moments, but Ismagulov will establish his jab and technical stand-up in rounds two and three, securing takedowns late in those rounds to win on the scorecards.

"i'm calling a 29-28 unanimous decision for damiris magulov losing the first round in a crazy back and forth moment and then winning the second and third in a more controlled environment"
Marc Diakiese - Fight History
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 42 54% 67 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:27
Kauê Fernandes 0 13 of 32 40% 65 of 92 3 of 8 37% 0 1 8:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 13 46% 17 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 10 40% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:33
2 Marc Diakiese 0 10 of 19 52% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 12 33% 16 of 29 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Marc Diakiese 0 7 of 10 70% 30 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Kauê Fernandes 0 5 of 10 50% 35 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 23 of 42 54% 6 of 20 8 of 13 9 of 9 21 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 13 of 32 40% 11 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 1 7 of 18 2 of 4 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 6 of 13 46% 2 of 6 2 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 10 40% 3 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Marc Diakiese 10 of 19 52% 2 of 9 5 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 12 33% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 7 of 10 70% 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Fernandes despite Diakiese's experience and competition edge. He believes Fernandes can defend takedowns and will stay in Diakiese's face with striking, causing trouble. He notes Diakiese has become more of a wrestler lately, but his wrestling is decent at best, while Fernandes has solid takedown defense. Angelo placed a small underdog bet on Fernandes at +145, noting the line is tightening.

small underdog bet at +145, line tightening to +116
"I am going to lean Fernandez here obviously Marc Dy has the uh experience level the competition Edge heavily favors him but I like Fernandez I think he can defend the takedowns I think he's going to come forward I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Marc Diakiese to win by decision. He notes that Diakiese has evolved into a wrestler, with 11 takedowns against Slava Borshchev and 8 against Damir Hadzovic. He trusts Diakiese's cardio and fight IQ, and believes Fernandes is dangerous early but fades. He also mentions that Diakiese's submission loss to Joel Alvarez was due to a head clash.

"I like di Casey here um and D Casey's fought the much better competition... give me Mark D Casey to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his UFC experience, improved cardio, and well-rounded game. He notes that Diakiese has evolved from a dynamic striker to a more complete fighter who uses offensive wrestling. Levi acknowledges Diakiese's inconsistency and tendency to flake, but believes this is a step down in competition. He sees Fernandes as dangerous early with his BJJ and head kicks, but expects Diakiese's cardio and wrestling to take over in later rounds. Levi is leaning Diakiese but not with high confidence.

Diakiese wins by decision, Diakiese wins inside distance
"I'll pick Diakiese with the experience... but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if this guy flakes out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

James acknowledges that Diakiese deserves to be a favorite but sees too much danger on the Fernandes side due to his unproven UFC debut and potential cardio issues. He notes that Diakiese has been submitted multiple times and that Fernandes has speed and power, but he also points out that Fernandes gassed in his last extended fight. Ultimately, James is not betting this fight because he cannot trust either fighter, but he leans Diakiese as the rightful favorite.

"I guess I'm picking mark in this fight because I think he should be a favorite but there's too much danger Factor on the Fernandez side."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Diakiese has a solid submission defense to thwart Fernandes' offensive attacks on the mat. As the fight goes into deeper waters, Diakiese will find it easier to control Fernandes on the mat and do good work from top position. Diakiese is good enough in the striking realm to deal with Fernandes' early threat, and will likely drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision win.

surprised line is dropping; thinks -130 is a gift
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is dropping as much as it has... I think that that's a solid spot, I think that's a gift of a spot to take the Casey here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese over Kauê Fernandes. He notes that Fernandes is a good regional fighter with finishing potential, but he gassed after the first round when facing adversity. Diakiese is tough to finish early, having only lost to Joel Alvarez due to a head clash. The Guru expects Diakiese to weather an early storm and then take over in the later rounds via grappling, predicting a third-round TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Mark Jai mainly because although KY Fernandez... he absolutely gassed after the first round... I'm going to go with Mark Jai via a third round TKO or finish by submission"
LOSS vs Joel Alvarez
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:26 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 0 20 of 46 43% 29 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:09
Marc Diakiese 0 42 of 75 56% 64 of 98 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Marc Diakiese 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Joel Alvarez 0 1 of 4 25% 9 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:55
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 13 84% 33 of 36 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 20 of 46 43% 8 of 25 6 of 11 6 of 10 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 42 of 75 56% 20 of 49 12 of 16 10 of 10 37 of 70 2 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 19 of 42 45% 7 of 22 6 of 11 6 of 9 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 31 of 62 50% 15 of 42 7 of 11 9 of 9 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joel Alvarez 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 13 84% 5 of 7 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joel Alvarez vs. Marc Diakiese
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-190), Diakiese (+160)

Round 1
Although this next lightweight pairing might be described as a potential brawl, neither Diakiese (16-6, 7-6 UFC) nor Alvarez (19-3, 4-2 UFC) make their bread off of being knockout artists. Instead, their grappling has been arguably their best attributes, so this could turn into a wild affair that ends up going everywhere. Keeping tabs on this fight will be referee Dan Movahedi, one that opens up with a fist bump from the 155ers. The two are amped up to engage, and the first strike offered is a low kick from Diakiese. When he misses, he resets and reaches his target with a second. Alvarez brings up a high knee when Diakiese comes at him, and he fires off a kick to the knee sleeve of his opponent and catches the Brit with a right hand. Diakiese goes down low with a kick, and he uses his other leg to kick the body. They crash together throwing fierce fists, and both catch the other with one punch and back off to take quick counts of their teeth. Diakiese chains a low kick into a spinning back kick, and Alvarez bounces off the cage wall and gets back to striking range. Alvarez springs into action with a calf kick and a right hand, and they measure one another with jabs to follow. Alvarez steps in with a knee, and Diakiese throws everything he has into a right hand that opens a cut on the cheek of his opponent. Diakiese spins with a back fist, and Alvarez ducks it and catches him with a right hand that staggers the mohawk-sporting fighter momentarily. Diakiese swings for the bleachers with a right hand, and Alvarez dodges it and absorbs a flush leg kick so he can counter with a head kick. Alvarez chambers and looses a hard leg kick, and he beats Diakiese to the punch with a check left hook as Diakiese winds up on a power punch. Alvarez pushes off with a front kick, and he gets wobbled when swinging too hard with a haymaker while Diakiese counters him. Diakiese lets him settle down and gives chase to line up a right hook and a spinning back kick, and Alvarez runs at him with two fists and a leg kick. Alvarez spins with a high kick, ducks a spinning back fist, takes Diakiese’s back and looks for a trip. Diakiese leans himself against the cage to keep himself upright, and Alvarez succeeds in tripping him out. Diakiese reverses him to end up on top, and he scores an elbow and a few body shots before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
The lightweights briefly tap their gloves together, but Diakiese is more interested in coming out firing. Alvarez pays close attention, and he watches Diakiese sail past him with a spinning wheel kick. When Diakiese gets his balance again, he changes levels and secures a takedown to put the Spaniard on his back. Alvarez scrambles to put himself close to the wall, and Diakiese is comfortable inside of the guard softening Alvarez up with short strikes. Alvarez looks to turn to the side or potentially set up something off his back, and Diakiese stays heavy and tightly pressed to his man to prevent anything from coming together. Diakiese embraces the grind, focusing more on position rather than offense. Alvarez decides to stop looking for some submission off his back, and he wall-walks to stand back up. Diakiese strips out his legs and puts him down to his back again. Alvarez uses upkicks to stop Diakiese from lowering himself down, and Diakiese shoots down low and gets turned around by the Spanish fighter. With “The Bonecrusher” turning to his knees, Alvarez opens up with punches to the side of the head. Alvarez is warned for strikes to the back of the head, and Diakiese turns to his back and suddenly explodes up to his feet. Alvarez races forward to attack, and his head bounces off Diakiese’s. Diakiese clutches the side of his head, signaling to Movahedi that he absorbed a foul. Movahedi tells them to fight on, and Alvarez unloads with several knees to the body and ferocious fists.
Diakiese desperately drops down to pursue a takedown, and Alvarez welcomes this as he follows Diakiese down and isolates the neck. “El Fenomeno” slides his arm beneath the chin and his other under the armpit to lock down a brabo choke, and he has it tight. Diakiese rolls to his back, and Alvarez moves to lower his full body weight down to complete the submission. With Diakiese still rocked by the head clash, he does not have the sense to fight the choke, and he taps out.
This is an unfortunate situation for Diakiese, as Movahedi missed the clash of heads with Alvarez’ forehead slamming into the side of Diakiese’s head behind the ear. As the official announcement is read, it is unclear if the result will be under review at this time. Diakiese is still wobbled from the foul when Movahedi raises Alvarez’ victorious arm, and he almost falls over and has to be caught by one of his cornermen so he does not crash and burn. The official result is a submission, but it might not remain as such should it get reviewed or appealed.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Marc Diakiese R2 4:26 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Angelo likes Joel Alvarez's length and reach advantage, and thinks he can win by sneaky submission off his back or catch Diakiese on the feet. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense but believes Diakiese's recent loss to an older Michael Johnson is a bad sign. He has a small moneyline bet but does not recommend tailing.

small moneyline bet placed; not recommended to tail
"I like Joel Alvarez to get the win I've got a small money line bet on him as well I wouldn't recommend tailing it because it is a bit sketchy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by first-round submission. He notes Alvarez is a dangerous grappler with 84% of wins by submission, but also has good striking as shown against Thiago Moises. He thinks Diakiese will shoot for a takedown and get caught. He mentions Alvarez may miss weight but that benefits him. He would not lay -190 but thinks Alvarez wins more often than not.

first round submission
"give me Alvarez to win this fight I'll say club and sub heard Steve Casey on the feet Dia Casey shoots in and gets his next match up in the very first round Alvarez first round submission for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Cody picked Alvarez earlier at -152, citing Diakiese's poor fight IQ and failure to wrestle against Michael Johnson. He thinks Alvarez's submission grappling and power will be too much. He notes the line has moved to -200 and feels the value is gone.

Alvarez submission at +125 (not taken)
"I backed uh Joel Alvarez earlier in the week at minus 152."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Daniel picks Joel Alvarez by submission, specifically a guillotine, because he does not trust Marc Diakiese to avoid diving into a submission. He notes Diakiese has been guillotined before and makes bonehead mistakes. He acknowledges Diakiese has the tools to win via takedowns and control, but believes Alvarez's opportunistic finishing ability and physicality will prevail. He points out that Alvarez has 0% takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. He has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200 due to the poor value.

Daniel predicts Alvarez wins via guillotine. He says he has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200. He mentions Alvarez has never won a decision.
"Joel probably keeps is zero percent takedown defense intact and wins via guillotine"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The host picks Joel Alvarez, citing his size, reach, aggression, and ability to inflict damage from any position. He believes Diakiese cracks under pressure and that Alvarez will finish him within 7.5 minutes. He notes Alvarez's dangerous bottom game with elbows and submissions.

finishes within 7.5 minutes
"giving Joelle Alvarez here and I think he finishes uh Mark D Casey honestly within seven and a half minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Alvarez, noting his power and submission threat. He thinks Diakiese's wrestling is overrated and that he will leave his neck exposed. He expects Alvarez to win by submission or decision, and suggests live betting if Diakiese controls the first round.

suggests live betting if Diakiese wins first round
"I would take Joel Alvarez I can see this being a boy a boring points decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, citing Marc Diakiese's poor performance against Michael Johnson. He praises Alvarez's win over Thiago Moises and his massive 77-inch reach in the lightweight division. The Guru notes Diakiese's tendency to get caught in guillotines when shooting takedowns, and predicts Alvarez will catch a guillotine after a takedown attempt. He also mentions Alvarez's layoff but believes he is entering his prime.

guillotine choke
"I'm gonna have to go Joe Alvarez here over Mark jacasian"
LOSS vs Michael Johnson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 83 of 181 45% 83 of 181 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Marc Diakiese 0 55 of 127 43% 55 of 127 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 41 of 79 51% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 83 of 181 45% 37 of 116 37 of 55 9 of 10 79 of 171 3 of 7 1 of 3
Marc Diakiese 55 of 127 43% 21 of 80 24 of 31 10 of 16 52 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 12 of 41 29% 5 of 29 5 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 2
Marc Diakiese 23 of 38 60% 6 of 16 9 of 14 8 of 8 22 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 61 49% 14 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 4 30 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 40 27% 5 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 41 of 79 51% 18 of 48 19 of 27 4 of 4 38 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 1
Marc Diakiese 21 of 49 42% 10 of 35 10 of 11 1 of 3 19 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 13 of 32 40% 78 of 111 8 of 11 72% 0 0 13:35
Damir Hadžović 0 5 of 10 50% 20 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 2 of 3 66% 23 of 29 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:45
Damir Hadžović 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc Diakiese 0 8 of 19 42% 19 of 34 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:17
Damir Hadžović 0 2 of 5 40% 10 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marc Diakiese 0 3 of 10 30% 36 of 48 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:33
Damir Hadžović 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 13 of 32 40% 8 of 25 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 25 2 of 2 4 of 5
Damir Hadžović 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Damir Hadžović 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 8 of 19 42% 6 of 16 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 3
Damir Hadžović 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 3 of 10 30% 1 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Damir Hadžović 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, noting he is the far better striker and coming off an impressive grappling win. He highlights Diakiese's power, leg kicks, and durability, while Hadžović is an okay striker with wins over fighters no longer in the UFC. He loves a Diakiese and Nathaniel Wood parlay.

parlay with Nathaniel Wood
"i love a mark de casey nathaniel wood parlay so i'm probably gonna smash those two together"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Marc Diakiese to win by decision. He notes Diakiese has a clear path: take down Hadžović, who has terrible takedown defense (37%) and suspect cardio. Diakiese showed he can wrestle for 15 minutes in his last fight. He expects Diakiese to control the fight with takedowns and win a decision.

Diakiese by decision
"i like dkc here quite a bit and i'd like to casey to once again win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He notes Hadžović's only path is a puncher's chance, but Diakiese has a great chin. Cody thinks Diakiese will take Hadžović down at will and control the fight. He also likes Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"i got dia casey i think he can make this look really easy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his wrestling and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Diakiese has a good blast double and can find ways to win, as long as he doesn't get too flashy. Levi also mentions that both fighters have calf kicks, but Diakiese's wrestling should be the difference. He hasn't forgiven Hadžović for a previous loss and sees limited improvement.

"i think he can come out here and grind out damir hadzovich so for that reason i'm picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Diakiese is a safe spot. He can grapple or strike with Hadžović, who is a one-dimensional brawler. Diakiese should take a smart approach, get takedowns, and win. Even on the feet, he can hold his own.

"I like the Casey here I think he's a pretty safe spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul picks Marc Diakiese, citing his wrestling improvements and takedown ability. He notes Hadžović has poor takedown defense and has been taken down many times. Paul thinks Diakiese will stick to a wrestling game plan and easily get takedowns. He also likes Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"dear casey i think wins and i think it's wrestling he's gonna lean on again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese to win by KO. He notes Diakiese has shown grappling improvements and is still a good fighter. Hadžović is simple and fundamental on the feet, lacking finishing ability against decent opponents. Diakiese's unorthodox style will give him trouble, and he expects a KO statement.

KO
"i'm going to call mark jacoby getting a good ko and getting a statement made on this card"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 17 of 20 85% 40 of 50 11 of 18 61% 0 0 12:24
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 12 of 21 57% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 4 of 4 100% 9 of 10 3 of 7 42% 0 0 3:55
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 5 of 11 45% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Marc Diakiese 0 9 of 11 81% 21 of 25 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:08
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 5 of 6 83% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marc Diakiese 0 4 of 5 80% 10 of 15 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:21
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 4 50% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 17 of 20 85% 6 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 12 4 of 6 5 of 5 8 of 9
Viacheslav Borshchev 12 of 21 57% 6 of 15 3 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 12 3 of 6 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 9 of 11 81% 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 6
Viacheslav Borshchev 5 of 6 83% 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Marc Diakiese 4 of 5 80% 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Angelo picks Viacheslav Borshchev, calling him the more technical striker. He notes that while Marc Diakiese has more power, Borshchev's kickboxing background and technical ability should control the fight. He mentions Borshchev needs to avoid Diakiese's leg kicks and power. He may throw a moneyline bet despite the 2-1 odds.

i may throw a money line bet on him two to one
"i like worship to win here but he definitely needs to avoid the leg kicks and avoid the power of mark dioxis"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Big Brady picks Viacheslav Borshchev to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes Borshchev's striking and volume, but is concerned about his takedown defense, as he gets taken down in every fight. However, he notes that Borshchev has an elite get-up game and can get back to his feet. He thinks Diakiese can make it competitive with takedowns, but Borshchev will win the striking exchanges.

Viacheslav Borshchev wins by decision
"I'll go borschev but I don't feel like overly confident about it... I'm going to take borah chef to win... by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Cody picks Borshchev, disagreeing with the line. He criticizes Diakiese's inconsistency and poor performances as a favorite. He likes Borshchev's pressure, power, and ability to get up from takedowns. He thinks Borshchev will overwhelm Diakiese and get a finish.

"i think borishev wins i just think it's going to be a very volatile fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Daniel Levi leans Viacheslav Borshchev, citing his superior boxing and striking. He notes Borshchev has defensive flaws on the ground but is training at Alpha Male to improve. He thinks Diakiese will get early takedowns but Borshchev will get back up and pull away on the feet. He is not betting the fight but picks Borshchev to win.

"I think borscht probably gets taken down early and if he can avoid getting submitted... he gets back up and starts to kind of pull away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host slightly favors Diakiese, citing his overall MMA game, experience against better competition, and the threat of takedowns that could disrupt Borshchev's striking. He notes Borshchev's body shot power but thinks Diakiese's speed and wrestling could be key. He expects a decision win for Diakiese.

Diakiese by decision at +300
"i do favor him ever so slightly because i think he can put together a better 15-minute fight than we're going to see from borschev"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul leans Diakiese as an underdog, citing recency bias on Borshchev. He notes Diakiese's close fight with a talented kickboxer and thinks the price is too high on Borshchev. He sees Diakiese getting back on track but isn't confident.

"i'm leaning towards gia casey to get back on track here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

The MMA Guru picks Viacheslav Borshchev by late first-round TKO over Marc Diakiese. He believes Borshchev is better in the pocket and notes Diakiese's chin issues after being rocked by Rafael Alves. The Guru expects Diakiese to shoot for takedowns but Borshchev to work back up and land big shots, as he won't be as worried about the grappling threat as he was against Dakota Bush.

late first round tko
"i'm gonna go with via schlav borishev"
LOSS vs Rafael Alves
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:48 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his leg kicks and body shots to tire out Alves, who has cardio issues. He notes that Alves is dangerous but has no takedowns in the UFC and tends to gas. Angelo believes if Diakiese stays composed and technical, he should win straightforwardly.

"i'm going with mark here after the year-long layoff i think the leg kicks will help sort of remove some of that alves power i think the body shots will speed up uh alvez's eventual gassing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Big Brady picks Rafael Alves as an upset, citing Alves' impressive UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he showed improved cardio and power. He notes Alves is dangerous everywhere: on the feet with knockout power and on the mat with a black belt in BJJ. Brady expects Alves to hurt Diakiese on the feet, then snatch a submission when Diakiese shoots for a takedown.

Alves by submission
"I'm actually here with the upset here i'm going to take rafael elvis to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody believes Diakiese will use his reach and footwork to stay outside and pick apart Alves, who is low-volume and explosive but fades. He notes Alves missed weight badly and is a 'weight bully' who struggles with cardio. He expects Diakiese to win a decision.

"i got dear casey here and it's early enough in the card that i probably will have them a little higher than i should"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his speed and athletic advantage. He believes Diakiese can win a decision if he minds his P's and Q's against the experienced Alves. Levi acknowledges Alves's power and guillotine threat but thinks Diakiese's superior athleticism will be the difference.

"give me march and casey to get it done"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Jacob is very confident in Marc Diakiese, calling him the real deal and predicting he will dominate. He mentions Diakiese's training with Khamzat Chimaev and his ability to use offensive wrestling if needed. Jacob thinks Alves is being fed to Diakiese as a winnable fight and expects a dominant performance.

"yeah mark's going to absolutely dominate this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul thinks Diakiese is the better athlete with better footwork and speed. He notes Alves is low-volume and explosive but fades. He expects Diakiese to stay on the outside and outpoint Alves. He is confident despite Diakiese's poor last performance.

"got to go with the bone crusher to get back on track"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

The Guru picks Marc Diakiese by unanimous decision (30-27). He expects Diakiese to establish range with his jab and calf kicks, gradually breaking down Alves over three rounds. Alves may have moments with a takedown or big shots, but Diakiese's calf kicks will limit Alves' movement and lead to a dominant performance.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to call a 30-27 for marc jacozy here over rafael alves"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 68 of 148 45% 73 of 153 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc Diakiese 0 78 of 124 62% 82 of 128 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 11 of 18 61% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Marc Diakiese 0 18 of 31 58% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc Diakiese 0 28 of 41 68% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Marc Diakiese 0 32 of 52 61% 33 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 68 of 148 45% 31 of 105 19 of 21 18 of 22 66 of 146 2 of 2 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 78 of 124 62% 28 of 65 33 of 41 17 of 18 67 of 110 9 of 12 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 11 of 18 61% 2 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 8 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 18 of 31 58% 9 of 19 9 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 2
2 Rafael Fiziev 28 of 59 47% 13 of 40 8 of 10 7 of 9 27 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 28 of 41 68% 8 of 18 8 of 10 12 of 13 27 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 29 of 71 40% 16 of 57 9 of 9 4 of 5 29 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 32 of 52 61% 11 of 28 16 of 19 5 of 5 29 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady likes Diakiese, believing he is better overall with a wrestling advantage he has used in recent fights. He thinks the striking will be close but Diakiese's takedowns will seal rounds. He notes Diakiese has a good chin and has never been knocked out, and might bet him if the line is right.

"I like him to win this fight and I'm going to pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi leans toward Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Diakiese should use his full MMA arsenal rather than trying to outkickbox Fiziev. He notes that Diakiese has matured and improved his wrestling and calf kicks. He warns that Fiziev is a dangerous kickboxer and that Diakiese must keep him guessing with takedown threats. He expects a tough fight but thinks Diakiese can win if he fights smart.

"if mark can kind of out mma him ... i think jacasey should win this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Diakiese, noting he has fought better competition and is always competitive. He believes calf kicks will be a huge factor, with Diakiese chopping Fiziev's legs and cruising to a unanimous decision. He mentions Diakiese has become more patient and has a reach advantage.

Diakiese by unanimous decision 30-27
"I think Marchesi is gonna waste no time getting straight to him in the first round chopping up the legs of Rafael fizzy"
WIN vs Lando Vannata
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 40 of 99 40% 45 of 111 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:07
Lando Vannata 0 25 of 70 35% 51 of 108 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Lando Vannata 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc Diakiese 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Lando Vannata 0 8 of 32 25% 9 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 34 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:32
Lando Vannata 0 7 of 17 41% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 40 of 99 40% 16 of 52 10 of 25 14 of 22 31 of 84 2 of 3 7 of 12
Lando Vannata 25 of 70 35% 4 of 36 8 of 12 13 of 22 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 16 of 38 42% 4 of 15 4 of 10 8 of 13 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 1
Lando Vannata 10 of 21 47% 1 of 8 2 of 4 7 of 9 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 13 of 38 34% 4 of 21 4 of 9 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Lando Vannata 8 of 32 25% 2 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 8 7 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 11 of 23 47% 8 of 16 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 7 of 11
Lando Vannata 7 of 17 41% 1 of 8 3 of 4 3 of 5 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his leg kicks and body shots to tire out Alves, who has cardio issues. He notes that Alves is dangerous but has no takedowns in the UFC and tends to gas. Angelo believes if Diakiese stays composed and technical, he should win straightforwardly.

"i'm going with mark here after the year-long layoff i think the leg kicks will help sort of remove some of that alves power i think the body shots will speed up uh alvez's eventual gassing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Big Brady picks Rafael Alves as an upset, citing Alves' impressive UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he showed improved cardio and power. He notes Alves is dangerous everywhere: on the feet with knockout power and on the mat with a black belt in BJJ. Brady expects Alves to hurt Diakiese on the feet, then snatch a submission when Diakiese shoots for a takedown.

Alves by submission
"I'm actually here with the upset here i'm going to take rafael elvis to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody believes Diakiese will use his reach and footwork to stay outside and pick apart Alves, who is low-volume and explosive but fades. He notes Alves missed weight badly and is a 'weight bully' who struggles with cardio. He expects Diakiese to win a decision.

"i got dear casey here and it's early enough in the card that i probably will have them a little higher than i should"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his speed and athletic advantage. He believes Diakiese can win a decision if he minds his P's and Q's against the experienced Alves. Levi acknowledges Alves's power and guillotine threat but thinks Diakiese's superior athleticism will be the difference.

"give me march and casey to get it done"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Jacob is very confident in Marc Diakiese, calling him the real deal and predicting he will dominate. He mentions Diakiese's training with Khamzat Chimaev and his ability to use offensive wrestling if needed. Jacob thinks Alves is being fed to Diakiese as a winnable fight and expects a dominant performance.

"yeah mark's going to absolutely dominate this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul thinks Diakiese is the better athlete with better footwork and speed. He notes Alves is low-volume and explosive but fades. He expects Diakiese to stay on the outside and outpoint Alves. He is confident despite Diakiese's poor last performance.

"got to go with the bone crusher to get back on track"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

The Guru picks Marc Diakiese by unanimous decision (30-27). He expects Diakiese to establish range with his jab and calf kicks, gradually breaking down Alves over three rounds. Alves may have moments with a takedown or big shots, but Diakiese's calf kicks will limit Alves' movement and lead to a dominant performance.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to call a 30-27 for marc jacozy here over rafael alves"