vs
-150 +132
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Next Fight
Age 42
Height 6' 2"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 6"
Reach 82.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Thiago Santos
3.72 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.57 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.88 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Johnny Walker
4.06 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.09 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.42 TD Avg
60.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Thiago Santos
Moneyline
BetWay -150
KO/TKO
BetMGM +105
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +850
Johnny Walker
Moneyline
FanDuel +132
KO/TKO
FanDuel +190
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
FanDuel +1100
Thiago Santos - Fight History
LOSS vs Jamahal Hill
TKO (punches and elbows) R4 2:31 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 53 of 94 56% 56 of 98 6 of 20 30% 0 0 5:54
Thiago Santos 0 89 of 152 58% 130 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 10 of 18 55% 11 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 30 30% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:41
Thiago Santos 0 31 of 52 59% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 11 72% 10 of 14 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:50
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 11 81% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
4 Jamahal Hill 0 19 of 27 70% 19 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 40 of 59 67% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 53 of 94 56% 28 of 66 13 of 16 12 of 12 43 of 82 8 of 9 2 of 3
Thiago Santos 89 of 152 58% 68 of 131 12 of 12 9 of 9 52 of 107 19 of 21 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 10 of 18 55% 1 of 8 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 9 of 30 30% 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 16 of 38 42% 9 of 29 5 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 1
Thiago Santos 31 of 52 59% 19 of 40 5 of 5 7 of 7 28 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 8 of 11 72% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 3 of 3 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 7 of 7 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 19 of 27 70% 12 of 20 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 40 of 59 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 29 5 of 6 18 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.

"given what tiago santos has become we got to go with jamal hill here right"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.

second or third round knockout prediction
"i like jamal hill i'd like to help you win by knockout i'll say like second or third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by late stoppage (rounds 4-5) or decision
"I got Hill as well... I'm just not on team Thiago Santos... he's a lot older... since he's come back has just been less than kind."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.

Parlayed with Michał Oleksiejczuk at -158 to win 2 units
"I gotta go with Jamal Hill here so I took Jamal Hill minus 260 and I parlayed him with... Mija Oleg Zach"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by decision or late stoppage (rounds 4-5)
"I think Jamahal Hill is a little bit too fast for Thiago Santos... Hill will be the pick don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go jamal hill... i'm gonna see jamal hill pressuring him down walking him down landing some good combos and then maybe just like landing a good straight one two right on thiago santos against the cage at the …"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 60 of 138 43% 81 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Thiago Santos 0 78 of 155 50% 114 of 191 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 1 15 of 36 41% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 32 31% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 21 of 48 43% 36 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
5 Magomed Ankalaev 0 7 of 19 36% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 21 71% 36 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 60 of 138 43% 14 of 75 16 of 26 30 of 37 57 of 135 1 of 1 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 78 of 155 50% 33 of 94 35 of 51 10 of 10 64 of 140 12 of 13 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 21 47% 0 of 6 3 of 6 7 of 9 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 23 34% 3 of 13 4 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 15 of 36 41% 7 of 22 3 of 6 5 of 8 13 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 15 of 32 46% 6 of 18 6 of 11 3 of 3 14 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 30 60% 2 of 13 4 of 4 12 of 13 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 19 of 31 61% 7 of 17 7 of 9 5 of 5 18 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 32 31% 4 of 23 4 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 21 of 48 43% 13 of 38 8 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 45 1 of 1 2 of 2
5 Magomed Ankalaev 7 of 19 36% 1 of 11 2 of 3 4 of 5 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 15 of 21 71% 4 of 8 10 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 11 9 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.

"i have ankalive winning i think he does it with forward pressure heavy kicks that manage range and just constant takedown threats"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.

"i'm gonna say inca live wins this one actually by decision i'm gonna say he just kind of you know out points santos pretty cleanly easily"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.

Parlay with Murzakanov at -106
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.

"i think mago med and cleave is trending upwards i think that he will get a title shot at some point and i think that the new era of light heavyweights are emerging"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.

Decision prop for Ankalaev is suggested as a good play; round 4 or 5 decision if available.
"I think he is probably the best light heavyweight on planet Earth right now, and I think it's just a matter of time before he captures that gold."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.

Parlay with Murzakanov
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.

ground and pound TKO in round 2
"i'm going to trust magman angliev very patient on the fee doesn't rush his work likes to play the counter game as well which i think works against thiago santos"
WIN vs Johnny Walker
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Santos 0 44 of 105 41% 44 of 105 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 48 of 130 36% 48 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Santos 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thiago Santos 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Thiago Santos 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Thiago Santos 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 11 of 41 26% 11 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Thiago Santos 0 10 of 23 43% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Santos 44 of 105 41% 9 of 40 16 of 28 19 of 37 42 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 48 of 130 36% 7 of 55 9 of 20 32 of 55 46 of 127 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Santos 3 of 13 23% 0 of 6 1 of 4 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 9 of 15 60% 0 of 2 1 of 3 8 of 10 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Santos 11 of 22 50% 2 of 5 6 of 8 3 of 9 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 10 of 20 50% 2 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 11 8 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Thiago Santos 11 of 25 44% 2 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 11 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 10 of 25 40% 2 of 10 2 of 6 6 of 9 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Thiago Santos 9 of 22 40% 2 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 7 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 11 of 41 26% 1 of 22 2 of 3 8 of 16 11 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Thiago Santos 10 of 23 43% 3 of 10 4 of 6 3 of 7 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 8 of 29 27% 2 of 15 2 of 5 4 of 9 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, expecting his forward pressure, craziness, and size to frustrate Thiago Santos, who is a shell of his former self after knee injuries and three straight losses. He notes that Santos has massive power and could knock anyone out, but his cardio suffers and he may be gun-shy. Walker is never afraid to throw and will stay busy. Angelo likes Walker at plus 145 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,400. He also likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.

moneyline bet at +145, over on rounds, more more monkey knife fight
"johnny walker is the pick johnny walker will be in my my draftkings lineup i will probably have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Big Brady picks Thiago Santos to win, citing his experience, better competition, and more paths to victory. He notes Santos has fought Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Rakic, while Walker's best wins are over lesser competition. Walker is very hittable (31% striking defense) and chinny, while Santos hits hard. Santos has better cardio, having gone five rounds with Jones, while Walker fades after the first round. Brady suggests a ground game path for Santos, similar to his win over Kevin Holland. He recommends a violence play rather than the moneyline.

fight ends inside distance (violence play)
"i'm gonna go santos here i'm gonna go with more experience fighter better competition a better gas tank"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Cody picks Thiago Santos based on superior experience and durability. He notes that Santos has slowed down and his knees are shot, but he still hits hard and can drag the fight into later rounds. He expects Santos to survive Walker's early explosiveness and then pressure him, eventually landing a finish in the second, third, or fourth round. He highlights that Santos outstruck Alexander Rakic in their fight and has better cardio than Walker, who has never gone five rounds.

"the official pick will be thiago santos based on the superior experience and durability"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker as the underdog, citing that both fighters have declined since their surgeries—Santos after ACL surgery and Walker after shoulder injury. He notes Walker's dynamic striking and finishing ability but acknowledges his poor durability and tendency to flop when hit. Levi believes the fight is a coin flip about who lands first, but he leans Walker because of motivation concerns for the nearly 40-year-old Santos with a baby on the way. He expects a knockout either way and takes the underdog.

fight doesn't go to decision; knockout likely
"give me the underdog give me johnny walker to knock out thiago santos but don't quote me on it cause i mean it's one of these things where either guy can hit the deck"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Thiago Santos

I think Santos is the more disciplined striker and should be able to counter Walker's wildness. Walker is explosive but hittable and has poor durability. However, I'm concerned about Santos's recent performances and knee surgeries. I like Santos inside the distance at -120 and also like the under 1.5 rounds. I'm picking Santos but not with high confidence.

Santos inside the distance -120, under 1.5 rounds even money
"I kind of like santo's itd minus 120"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Santos but with less confidence. He notes that Walker is dangerous early but has never gone five rounds and his cardio is suspect. He believes Santos's chin holds up better at 205 and that Walker's grappling is not a major concern. He does not have a bet on Santos straight up but suggests looking at live betting after the first round if Santos survives.

Live betting after round one if Santos survives
"santos for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos, despite rooting for Johnny Walker. He notes Santos' check hook is his best weapon and Walker leaves himself open when rushing in. Walker has been KO'd in most of his losses by rushing in. Santos has five-round experience and still has power. He predicts Santos will catch Walker with a check hook and finish him by KO.

Santos by KO
"i'm gonna go with thiago santos catching johnny walker rushing in with a check hook putting him down finishing him off"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksandar Rakić 0 49 of 97 50% 61 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 36 of 89 40% 50 of 103 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksandar Rakić 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aleksandar Rakić 0 11 of 31 35% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 35 42% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
3 Aleksandar Rakić 0 23 of 39 58% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 24 29% 12 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksandar Rakić 49 of 97 50% 10 of 41 23 of 33 16 of 23 35 of 82 14 of 15 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 36 of 89 40% 8 of 47 13 of 16 15 of 26 29 of 82 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksandar Rakić 15 of 27 55% 1 of 8 8 of 11 6 of 8 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 14 of 30 46% 3 of 16 3 of 4 8 of 10 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aleksandar Rakić 11 of 31 35% 3 of 16 6 of 10 2 of 5 5 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 15 of 35 42% 3 of 17 8 of 9 4 of 9 8 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Aleksandar Rakić 23 of 39 58% 6 of 17 9 of 12 8 of 10 15 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 24 29% 2 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 7 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Big Brady picks Aleksandar Rakić, favoring him on the feet and heavily on the ground. He notes Rakić has been dropped before (by Devin Clark) and is hittable, while Santos has one-shot power. He recommends a ground game plan and predicts a TKO ground-and-pound finish in the second round, but passes on betting.

"i'm going to take rakash to win i'm going to say he wins by a tikiyo ground and pound finish in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Daniel picks Aleksandar Rakić to win, citing his well-rounded game, wrestling, and smart game planning. He notes Santos' submission defense issues and believes Rakić can mix in takedowns and possibly finish on the mat or win a decision.

"i'm gonna go with rockets here uh to edge this one out man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić is younger, stronger, and has a wrestling advantage. Santos is 37 with knee injuries and poor jiu-jitsu off his back. The host expects Rakić to use his kicks and takedowns to control the fight and win by decision.

"i'm going to take rockets to when this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić over Thiago Santos. He highlights Rakić's dangerous leg kicks and improved grappling, and notes Santos has no ligaments in his legs. He believes Rakić will chop at Santos's legs, inhibit his movement, and win by 30-27 unanimous decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

"i'm gonna go with alexander wreckage i like thiago santos you've got no ligaments in your legs and wreckage has the best leg kicks i've ever seen"
LOSS vs Glover Teixeira
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:49 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Glover Teixeira 1 40 of 64 62% 81 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Thiago Santos 0 46 of 63 73% 148 of 180 4 of 7 57% 2 0 9:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Glover Teixeira 0 15 of 24 62% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Thiago Santos 0 20 of 27 74% 77 of 87 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:02
2 Glover Teixeira 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 22 of 31 70% 58 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:39
3 Glover Teixeira 1 22 of 33 66% 32 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Thiago Santos 0 4 of 5 80% 13 of 15 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Glover Teixeira 40 of 64 62% 38 of 58 0 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 24 0 of 0 29 of 40
Thiago Santos 46 of 63 73% 46 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 44 of 58
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Glover Teixeira 15 of 24 62% 15 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 0 7 of 8
Thiago Santos 20 of 27 74% 20 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 24
2 Glover Teixeira 3 of 7 42% 1 of 3 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
Thiago Santos 22 of 31 70% 22 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 21 of 30
3 Glover Teixeira 22 of 33 66% 22 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 31
Thiago Santos 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Big Brady picks Teixeira as an underdog, citing Santos' injury layoff and questionable losses. He thinks Teixeira has more paths to victory, including takedowns and submissions. He notes Teixeira's recent form and improved conditioning.

submission
"I'm going to take the underdog plus 200 I don't really agree with that I think there's too many question marks I'm going to take glover to shara"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Daniel Levi leans toward Glover Teixeira as a betting pick, despite acknowledging Thiago Santos should be the favorite. He believes Teixeira's ground game is a huge edge; if he gets Santos down, the fight is likely over via submission. Levi notes that Santos is explosive and powerful on the feet, and Teixeira has been wobbled before, but he thinks Teixeira can take him down and submit him. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and picks Teixeira at plus money.

submission; plus 200 underdog
"when i'm having this much trouble picking you gotta lean with the plus 200 dog so i'm gonna lean with glover to i'm gonna lean with thiago in terms of like he should be the favorite but as far as …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

The host is very confident in Glover Teixeira at plus money, citing Thiago Santos coming off a severe ACL injury and a 16-month layoff. He believes Glover's durability, top pressure, and jiu-jitsu will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Glover can drown Santos. He notes that Santos is not a one-punch knockout artist and that Glover has only been finished once in 3.5 years. He plans to wait for a better line, expecting it to reach +200.

He loves Glover by submission, likely second or third round. He mentions waiting for the submission prop. He also notes the public is 72% on Santos, which he sees as value on Glover.
"I love love love glover to share at this price... I'm taking at least a two unit shot here i'm glad to share it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos to win by first-round TKO. He believes Santos is too dangerous in the first round and Teixeira has a habit of getting cracked early. He notes Santos's power and cardio, and that Teixeira cannot afford to take the same shots he took against lesser opponents.

first round TKO
"santos by first round tko win"
LOSS vs Jon Jones
Decision (split) (48–47, 48–47, 47–48) R5 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 90 65% 59 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 43 of 166 25% 43 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 42 16% 7 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 6 of 33 18% 6 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 90 65% 11 of 32 16 of 19 32 of 39 55 of 84 4 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 43 of 166 25% 9 of 92 7 of 21 27 of 53 42 of 159 1 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 7 of 16 43% 0 of 4 3 of 5 4 of 7 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 26 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 7 of 13 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 5 of 6 10 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 42 16% 1 of 25 2 of 6 4 of 11 6 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 14 of 19 73% 4 of 7 4 of 4 6 of 8 11 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 6 of 33 18% 1 of 17 1 of 6 4 of 10 6 of 30 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 2 of 3 7 of 7 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 28 28% 0 of 13 1 of 5 7 of 10 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 16 of 21 76% 3 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 11 16 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 37 29% 4 of 25 2 of 3 5 of 9 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R3 0:39 · UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Santos 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Jan Błachowicz 1 52 of 104 50% 52 of 104 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Santos 0 7 of 27 25% 7 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Jan Błachowicz 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thiago Santos 0 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jan Błachowicz 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Thiago Santos 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jan Błachowicz 1 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Santos 20 of 53 37% 7 of 31 6 of 12 7 of 10 19 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 52 of 104 50% 21 of 58 5 of 10 26 of 36 38 of 82 1 of 1 13 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Santos 7 of 27 25% 3 of 16 2 of 7 2 of 4 6 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 22 of 44 50% 4 of 19 4 of 7 14 of 18 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Thiago Santos 12 of 23 52% 3 of 12 4 of 5 5 of 6 12 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 13 of 34 38% 2 of 16 1 of 3 10 of 15 13 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Thiago Santos 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 17 of 26 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 21
WIN vs Jimi Manuwa
KO (punch) R2 0:41 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Santos 0 27 of 42 64% 30 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Jimi Manuwa 2 42 of 74 56% 65 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Santos 0 26 of 36 72% 29 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:23
Jimi Manuwa 1 33 of 55 60% 55 of 77 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:16
2 Thiago Santos 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Jimi Manuwa 1 9 of 19 47% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Santos 27 of 42 64% 15 of 30 12 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 20 17 of 19 2 of 3
Jimi Manuwa 42 of 74 56% 27 of 58 13 of 14 2 of 2 20 of 45 22 of 28 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Santos 26 of 36 72% 15 of 25 11 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 15 17 of 18 2 of 3
Jimi Manuwa 33 of 55 60% 20 of 41 11 of 12 2 of 2 15 of 32 18 of 22 0 of 1
2 Thiago Santos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jimi Manuwa 9 of 19 47% 7 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 0
Johnny Walker - Fight History
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 34 of 73 46% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dominick Reyes 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 34 of 73 46% 10 of 35 7 of 17 17 of 21 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 42 of 80 52% 7 of 31 6 of 11 29 of 38 41 of 78 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 10 of 19 52% 5 of 11 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 17 of 28 60% 2 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 18 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 9 of 19 47% 4 of 12 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 13 of 28 46% 3 of 14 1 of 5 9 of 9 12 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Reyes 15 of 35 42% 1 of 12 2 of 8 12 of 15 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 12 of 24 50% 2 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 11 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.

"I'm going to pick Dominick. I think he's just the more technical of the two. If he can avoid getting caught up in the craziness, then he should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.

first round knockout
"I'm going to lean Dominick Reyes... give me Dominick Reyes to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.

"I am going to actually go with Dominic Grace as well... I just feel like Reyes is going to be able to snipe him, hit him with something before the damage comes the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"So I have to pick Reyes here. Yeah, I don't think he's actually at SVG Ireland anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.

over 1.5 rounds (+158)
"I'm going to go Walker for nothing more to play devil's advocate. Like I said, this is a 50/50 fight to me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.

"I think that Dominic Reyes has always been slightly better than Johnny Walker. Slightly a bit more technical, more well-rounded, and has just accomplished a little bit more than Walker. So, I'm going to pick him for that reason."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.

"Walker is probably my lean on this one, but not with any amount of confidence cuz I don't rate Walker particularly highly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.

"I'm picking Johnny Walker in this one, right? And the reason I'm doing that is because he's a little bit more unorthodox and I feel like if you're unorthodox you can catch Dominic Reyes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.

Walker wins by knockout
"I end up siding with Walker ever so slightly. I think he'll end up finding that chin on Reyes and putting him away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.

"I'm gonna I'm gonna side with Dom Reyes just because I I prefer his his striking technique, his style."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.

"I'm going to go with Dominic Reyes getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"Reyes really should just be able to sit down on one twos, check a couple kicks, be reasonably composed while Walker either throws himself wildly forward or throws himself wildly backward."
KO R2 2:37 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 1 50 of 67 74% 51 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Zhang Mingyang 0 20 of 47 42% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 9 of 22 40% 10 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Zhang Mingyang 0 12 of 30 40% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
2 Johnny Walker 1 41 of 45 91% 41 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Zhang Mingyang 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 50 of 67 74% 36 of 49 1 of 5 13 of 13 15 of 26 2 of 4 33 of 37
Zhang Mingyang 20 of 47 42% 8 of 35 6 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 39 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 9 of 22 40% 3 of 12 1 of 5 5 of 5 7 of 18 2 of 4 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 12 of 30 40% 6 of 24 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 22 4 of 6 1 of 2
2 Johnny Walker 41 of 45 91% 33 of 37 0 of 0 8 of 8 8 of 8 0 of 0 33 of 37
Zhang Mingyang 8 of 17 47% 2 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 5 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang

Round 1
The moment of truth has arrived, as Zhang stakes his 12-fight win streak—the last four in the Octagon—against Walker in an attempt to take a huge step towards becoming China’s second UFC champion. Walker, for his part, seeks to prove he has made strides in fight IQ and defense to go with his outlandish physical gifts and offensive arsenal. In an eminently sensible move, Marc Goddard, the largest referee available, has pulled main event duty. Zhang reaches out for a glove touch. Walker trots across the cage, ducks under his foe’s outstretched hand and shoots for a takedown. It isn’t terribly sporting, but more importantly it backfires, as he ends up with Zhang on top of him in his guard. Zhang tries to capitalize with some elbow strikes, but Walker manages to survive the miscue with little damage. Zhang lets him return to his feet and hurts him with a right hand. Zhang gives chase as Walker stumbles to the fence, and is forced to back off as Walker whiffs with a huge haymaker. Walker comes up short with a flying knee. Zhang clinches and drives Walker to the fence. Two minutes to go and they finally separate. Zhang is still in pursuit, but ends up chasing the Brazilian around the cage rather than cutting angles. Walker shoots a long double-leg and Zhang snuffs it out easily. Zhang rocks Walker with a big elbow inside. Walker backs off and returns to sliding around the perimeter, Zhang in tow. Zhang slaps a high kick off the side of Walker’s head at the clapper.
10-9 Zhang.

Round 2
Zhang is the aggressor to open Round 2, but Walker continues to move laterally, refusing to be trapped against the fence. The pace has slowed a bit, a minute into the round, but Zhang steps forward and lands two straight right hands that make the big man stumble. Walker creeps forward and meets Zhang in the center of the cage.
Walker lands a hard leg kick, then another. Zhang is in trouble, having taken some kind of serious damage from the kicks. Walker connects with another low kick, but Zhang is already on his way down. Walker pounces on his stricken foe, delivering some huge punches and elbows, and the suspense is suddenly over whether he will manage to get himself disqualified, as the blows rain all over Zhang’s head, while he grounds and ungrounds himself.
Enough legal blows get through—and no blatantly illegal ones—that the outcome becomes obvious to all, and Goddard moves in to halt the beating. A wild end to a wild fight.

The Official Result
Johnny Walker def. Mingyang Zhang R2 2:37 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Mingyang, calling him a dangerous finisher on feet and ground. He criticizes Johnny Walker for losing his craziness after training at SBG Ireland and becoming chinny. He thinks this is a showcase for the hometown guy and that Walker will get knocked out. He says Mingyang should be a much heavier favorite.

Odds are -400 for Mingyang; Angelo thinks he should be a much heavier favorite.
"Four to one favorite on Mingyang Jang. He should be a 1400 to1 favorite. Obviously, it's a fist fight. Anything could happen in a fist fight. But this is not a good matchup for Johnny Walker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round knockout, stating that Johnny Walker has a glass chin and has been knocked out six times. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Walker is unlikely to wrestle given his history. He believes the fight will be a striking match and that Zhang will knock Walker out early. He does not like the -310 line or the props.

Zhang Mingyang by first round KO; props are horrible
"I'm going Jong Ming to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor believes Johnny Walker is a broken fighter after training at SBG Ireland, where he lost his aggressive brawling style and now moves around aimlessly without a clear game plan. He notes that Walker's last three fights show him getting annihilated, and that Zhang Mingyang, while unproven, is a big, fast, aggressive brawler who will likely just throw punches until Walker gets knocked out. Connor thinks this fight will be less competitive than Walker's loss to Anthony Smith.

Odds: Zhang opened at -400, now -310; Walker opened +330, now +260. Connor notes the odds are not as wide as he expected, suggesting the market hasn't fully realized Walker's decline.
"Like young Ming young might not be a nuanced or deft striker in any way, but he is probably just gonna go out there and throw stuff at Johnny Walker until Johnny Walker gets knocked out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The host notes that all 19 of Mingyang's victories have come in the first round and expects him to continue that trend against Johnny Walker, who has comically horrible durability at this stage. He thinks Mingyang will take the pace immediately, dictate range, and land big shots to get Walker out in the first round by knockout.

win by KO/TKO, inside 1 round
"All 19 victories for Ciang have come in the first round and I expect him to continue that trend here against Johnny Walker who has comically horrible durability at this stage of his career. And I think we'll see Jiang …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round KO. He expresses no trust in Johnny Walker's chin, noting that Walker gets knocked out repeatedly. He highlights that all of Zhang's wins are first-round KOs and that he found the punch on Brenson Ribeiro, who is tall and rangy. He believes Zhang is a master at finding those shots and that Walker is chinny enough to get put down. He acknowledges that Walker might try to grapple, but expects the fight to be decided in the pocket.

Zhang Mingyang by first round KO
"I'm going to have to go with Jangyang. I can't trust Johnny Walker to get hit on the chin by a professional fighter."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane agrees with Connor that Johnny Walker is broken, citing his lack of direction and inability to execute a neutralizing game plan. He points out that Walker's footwork is poor and he can't hold opponents off with range tools, making him an easy target for Zhang's aggression. Zane expects Zhang to win by knockout, as Walker's fight response has turned into a flight response.

"I think this could look less competitive than the Anthony Smith fight where Anthony Smith literally spent like two full minutes on his knees begging the referee to step in."
LOSS vs Volkan Oezdemir
KO (punch) R1 2:28 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 2 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 2 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 15 of 33 45% 6 of 20 3 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 37 of 67 55% 22 of 49 9 of 12 6 of 6 33 of 59 2 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 15 of 33 45% 6 of 20 3 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 37 of 67 55% 22 of 49 9 of 12 6 of 6 33 of 59 2 of 4 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.

No bet placed; odds close so potential value
"Johnny Walker is gonna be the pick I'll tell you right now I don't have a bet on this fight because I don't trust Johnny in that chin but these odds make it like these are the fights where you …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.

"give me uzir because he's going to be more durable which is not hard uh for Johnny Walker to for anybody to be more durable than him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to take Johnny Walker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.

"I'm gonna lean slightly ever so slightly with Johnny Walker"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.

"Johnny Walker just to me is not a a durable guy at this point I like vulcan's dur durability"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.

Walker by KO (prop bet)
"I'm going Walker by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think the best play is probably the over one and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.

TKO
"I'm just going to go volcanos to here dude I'm just going to go vulcanos to me probably chins Walker [__] Johnny Walker dude I want him to win I root for Johnny Walker every time but every fight I'm …"
KO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 39 of 58 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Johnny Walker 0 24 of 71 33% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Johnny Walker 0 15 of 50 30% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 1 22 of 25 88% 22 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Johnny Walker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 39 of 58 67% 8 of 22 6 of 7 25 of 29 38 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1
Johnny Walker 24 of 71 33% 2 of 34 3 of 6 19 of 31 24 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 17 of 33 51% 2 of 13 2 of 3 13 of 17 17 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 15 of 50 30% 2 of 26 2 of 5 11 of 19 15 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 22 of 25 88% 6 of 9 4 of 4 12 of 12 21 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Johnny Walker 9 of 21 42% 0 of 8 1 of 1 8 of 12 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.

"I think maked ankal is going to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.

decision
"I'll take anive to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.

"ankle is clearly the pick for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.

Ankalaev by decision
"I'm just going to plug my nose and take ankle live by decision because I don't like this pre flop uh pre flop money line at all."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.

"I'm going with Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.

Ankalaev wins by KO (+400), under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Magaman alive. I'm going to pick him via KO because I think that he can get a KO on the feet and on the ground."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.

Over 1.5 rounds, Ankalaev by decision
"the official prediction is going to be on anive by decision low confidence on the decision prop but I do think that anive gets his hand raised relatively easily"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.

Pereira by decision (prop bet)
"I find myself leaning towards Ankaliva, but I agree with you 100%. This thing's probably close uh plays out closer to even money or minus 140 minus 150 ankle of not minus 220 - 230 - 240 depending on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.

"we got to go with the more skillful guy that wins more often than not and ank alive is that guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.

KO
"I'm going to go Johnny Walker... I think he's going to beat him I think he has a much better finishing ability on the feet"
No Contest (illegal knee) R1 3:13 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 19 68% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Johnny Walker 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 19 68% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Johnny Walker 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 19 68% 7 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 7
Johnny Walker 14 of 27 51% 4 of 15 1 of 2 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 19 68% 7 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 7
Johnny Walker 14 of 27 51% 4 of 15 1 of 2 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.

"I think it's literally that simple pickwise I'm going to go with ankalia here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.

decision
"I'm going to take ink live to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.

"I think Ankalaev is goat I think he is God I think he's got all the tools and these are the kind of lines that I overplay the guy and I lose a bunch of money but I'm still going …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.

Ankalaev minus 350, Walker plus 285; mentions possibility of Walker's leg kicks and Ankalaev's inconsistency
"I do have to favor aniv I think that you know he was this close to winning the Bell... I just do think Mago Med's on a different level."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.

"I fully expect kive to just go out there and do what he does best get the better strikes off when he needs to get the better takedowns uh off when he needs to and I just expect him to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.

Walker inside the distance (+425) as a sprinkle
"I think it's dogger pass just on the pure fact that I don't know Ankalaev is going to come right out of the gate and shoot for takedowns right out of the gate"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.

Walker is a massive underdog; mentions 'I'm taking it The Underdogs that I like'
"I'm going Johnny Walker over maged analay I've got a feeling that he is going to finish magamed an kayv in a weird way"
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 38 of 92 41% 41 of 95 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:22
Anthony Smith 0 92 of 192 47% 99 of 204 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 10 of 22 45% 12 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:22
Anthony Smith 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
2 Johnny Walker 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 31 of 59 52% 31 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Johnny Walker 0 10 of 36 27% 11 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 33 of 75 44% 40 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 38 of 92 41% 19 of 64 10 of 17 9 of 11 38 of 91 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 92 of 192 47% 32 of 117 9 of 19 51 of 56 81 of 178 6 of 8 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 10 of 22 45% 8 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 28 of 58 48% 16 of 40 3 of 7 9 of 11 19 of 48 6 of 7 3 of 3
2 Johnny Walker 18 of 34 52% 8 of 24 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 31 of 59 52% 7 of 32 4 of 7 20 of 20 31 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Johnny Walker 10 of 36 27% 3 of 21 6 of 12 1 of 3 10 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 33 of 75 44% 9 of 45 2 of 5 22 of 25 31 of 71 0 of 1 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, speed, power, and unorthodox striking. He thinks Walker is the more dangerous fighter and notes Anthony Smith may be focused on his post-fight career. He mentions Walker has only shot two takedowns in the UFC but got both, and could use that to surprise Smith. He expects the fight to go to the second round and likes the over 1.5 rounds if available.

Over 1.5 rounds if line available
"the pick's gonna be Johnny here because while he may not be the better Striker technique-wise I think he's definitely the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Big Brady sees this as a true pick'em fight, calling both fighters untrustworthy. He expects a striking fight, as Walker's takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. Brady gives Walker the power advantage and believes he can land a big knockout shot, but worries about Walker's chin. He picks Walker to knock out Smith in the first round, but calls it his least confident pick on the card.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna take Johnny Walker to land that big shot land that big knockout shot and knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant due to Smith's age and 50+ pro fights. He notes Smith's superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and his ability to survive early storms and finish late. However, he worries about Smith's leg injury and layoff, and acknowledges Walker's explosiveness and power. He sees Smith's jab and ring IQ as key advantages.

"I think I'm just gonna officially go with Anthony Smith see what I can see at Wayne's and just hope that he's fully healthy and ready to go because again him and his best better wrestling than Johnny Walker better …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith despite reservations, mainly because he dislikes Johnny Walker's move to SBG Ireland and feels it's a bad idea. He acknowledges Smith's vulnerability to larger fighters but thinks Smith's technical consistency and ability to take advantage of Walker's self-destructive tendencies could win. He notes the line is dead even and admits he might be wrong.

"I will stick with Anthony Smith just because Johnny Walker at SBG Ireland just feels like the worst idea I've ever heard in my entire life."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker despite concerns about Walker's chin and durability. He believes Walker will be winning the fight until he either gets his arm raised or gets caught, as Smith's style relies on comebacks and opportunistic finishes. Levi notes that Smith is a veteran with many finishes but does not see Smith dominating the fight; instead, he expects Walker to be ahead on the scorecards or land a knockout. He acknowledges the risk due to Walker's history of being knocked out and his tall man defense, but ultimately favors Walker's athleticism and recent focus.

"my pick is Johnny Walker you know um obviously you can't have too much confidence because you know the issues with his chin"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Smith is back at Factory X with Mark Montoya, motivated after a loss. His durability allows him to roll with Walker's shots, and he can pressure, land combinations, and counter Walker's wild striking. Smith can open up a finish via knockout or submission. Walker's durability issues and tentative moments may be exploited. Smith's experience and re-alignment with his camp are key.

"I think Smith can eventually clip him here and that might Open up The Knockout or even though the club didn't solve opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul slightly favors Anthony Smith, calling it a fair pick'em. He notes both fighters can crack and Walker is more likely to finish early, but if Smith can secure takedowns and hang around, he can capitalize. He acknowledges the volatility and question marks on both sides, but edges toward Smith due to his well-rounded game.

"I think a pickum is probably pretty fair like it's a fight with a lot of volunteer volatility a lot of question marks that you brought up on both sides but all side ever so slightly with Anthony Smith as …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker, citing his athleticism and reach advantage. He notes that Anthony Smith has looked hesitant and stiff on the feet recently, and his body appears less toned, suggesting decline. He believes Walker's momentum and finishing potential will be too much for Smith, predicting a TKO in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm gonna go with Johnny Walker over Anthony Smith... I think he'll get this one done by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Zane leans Johnny Walker based on a 'vibe pick,' feeling that Anthony Smith will be uncomfortable fighting someone as huge as Walker. He notes that Smith tends to gas and fold when things go wrong, and Walker's size and reach (6 inches longer) could bully Smith. He acknowledges Smith's technical striking but thinks Walker's athleticism and size will cause Smith to freak out.

"I'm kind of leaning Johnny Walker here. I don't even see like a super clear path to victory. I just think Smith is going to freak out."
WIN vs Paul Craig
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 3 of 8 37% 0 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 12 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 9 5 of 5 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 3 of 8 37% 0 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 12 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 9 5 of 5 5 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Big Brady picks Johnny Walker to knock out Paul Craig in the first round. He notes Walker is much bigger, more explosive, and has huge power on the feet. Craig's striking is not good and he will likely pull guard, but Walker should disengage and keep it standing. If Walker goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but Walker can also finish with ground and pound. He trusts Walker to get the knockout but warns of sweating if it hits the mat.

first round knockout
"I think Johnny Walker puts out Paul Craig and I think he does it in the first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Cody picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ under John Kavanagh. He says Walker can dictate range, use footwork, and potshot Paul Craig. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous BJJ but thinks Walker will keep the fight standing and avoid the ground. He mentions Walker's power and ability to knock out Craig. He also notes Craig's poor striking and takedown defense.

parlayed Walker with Gilbert Burns; mentions Walker's submission win over Ihor Potieria
"I like Johnny Walker as well I think Johnny Walker at his best he's kind of already done this matchup with Misha chirconov"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Connor picks Paul Craig, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Walker's new passive style is worse than his old reckless one, and that Craig will pressure and likely land clean shots. Connor also mentions that Walker has never been submitted but that Craig is a submission specialist who could catch him.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"I'll take Paul Craig. I have zero faith in what Johnny Walker's been doing."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Paul picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ. He says Walker can keep the fight standing and avoid Craig's BJJ. He mentions Craig's poor striking and takedown defense, and says Walker has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges Craig's submission wins over top guys but thinks Walker will fight smart and avoid the ground.

parlayed Walker with Gilbert Burns; mentions Walker's submission win over Ihor Potieria
"I parlay Johnny Walker who's plus 170 or minus 175 on the ticket with Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The Guru is confident Walker will KO Craig. He highlights Walker's underrated grappling, noting he reversed Krylov and has improved rapidly. Craig has no striking threat, so Walker will be confident on the feet. The Guru predicts Walker will rock Craig, force a bad takedown, and finish with ground and pound, similar to the Ryan Spann fight.

KO via ground and pound
"I'm going with Johnny Walker I think Paul Craig is going to get ko'd in this fight and I can see it happening to ground and pound"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Zane picks Paul Craig, citing that Craig has a reliable bag of tricks and will be aggressive, while Johnny Walker has regressed under SPG coaching, becoming passive and lacking a functional style. Zane notes that grappling is light heavyweight secret sauce, and Craig is a submission artist who can exploit Walker's poor grappling.

Craig opened at +130, now +158; Walker opened at -150, now -193. Zane does not place a bet.
"I'm gonna pick Paul Craig because at least Paul Craig has like a reliable bag of tricks."
WIN vs Ion Cuțelaba
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:37 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 3 of 3 100% 17 of 21 1 of 1 100% 3 1 2:10
Ion Cuțelaba 0 3 of 5 60% 17 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 3 of 3 100% 17 of 21 1 of 1 100% 3 1 2:10
Ion Cuțelaba 0 3 of 5 60% 17 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
Ion Cuțelaba 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
Ion Cuțelaba 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ion Cutelaba vs. Johnny Walker

Round 1
It’s time for the main card, with the only fight that did not change one day ago. It opens with a light heavyweight battle between finishers, and a ranked spot is on the line for the victor. The high-flying Walker (18-7, 4-4 UFC) will try to right the ship and get things going again, while powerful Moldovan Cutelaba (16-7-1, 1 NC; 5-6-1 UFC) wants to keep things afloat with a .500 record in the company. Stoppage rates of 94% for Walker and 87% for Cutelaba likely mean that referee Mike Beltran will be busy in this matchup, and the two intense 205ers do still touch gloves. Walker pokes out a few jabs with his range advantage, and Cutelaba fires off a head kick at him. Walker looks shocked, and he responds with a high kick of his own. “The Hulk” catches it and smashes him down to the ground with a slam. Cutelaba pounds on his opponent from the guard, and Walker scoots his way to the fence and grabs it to try to improve position. Beltran will not let him get away with it, and he shouts at the Brazilian to knock it off. Even in a close guard, Cutelaba uses his forearm and elbow to grind on Walker and score a few shots. Walker grabs the cage again, and he lets it go when Cutelaba belts him on the chin. Walker frames off with his feet, and he pulls on the wire once more to earn another severe warning. Exploding out of the bad position, Walker flips over, and he falls into an armbar setup. Cutelaba immediately moves to his knees, and he stands up even while Walker hangs onto him from behind. Cutelaba stomps the feet of his opponent, and Walker lifts him and drops him down hard. As soon as they land, the Brazilian sets up a rear-naked choke, but it is not under the chin. Cutelaba does not go away from a neck crank, and he grits it out and fights the grip. The Brazilian switches the hands and goes for a rear-naked choke on the other side, and Cutelaba fights tooth-and-nail to preserve his neck. Walker keeps hooks in instead of utilizing a body triangle, and he stretches Cutelaba out and wraps up a rear-naked choke. Cutelaba turns to his side and holds his chin down, but the forearm of Walker sneaks beneath it and squeezes tightly. Cutelaba’s face turns a dark shade of pink and he begins to gurgle from the vice-like grip, and there is no way out. Before he passes out from the submission, Cutelaba taps out, and Walker lets go and moves to an open area of the cage to start doing the worm. Walker breakdances a little more, but does not get reckless and injure himself like in the past. This is an important one for Walker, who records his first finish in nearly two years while landing his first sub since 2017.

The Official Result
Johnny Walker def. Ion Cutelaba R1 4:37 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Angelo picks Ion Cuțelaba, noting that Johnny Walker has been ruined by SBG Ireland and is no longer the creative fighter he once was. He thinks Walker will be low volume and hesitant, allowing Cuțelaba to get takedowns. He mentions Cuțelaba took Ryan Spann down three times, and Spann took Walker down, so Cuțelaba should dominate with wrestling.

"I got to go with Kuta Laba here he took Ryan Spann down three times Ryan Spann was taking down Johnny Walker and that's not even who Ryan Spann is so Kuta Laba is probably gonna get the non-stop takedowns."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Big Brady picks Johnny Walker as a dog, calling the line nonsensical. He argues Walker's losses came against elite fighters like Jamal Hill and Thiago Santos, while Cuțelaba has poor control despite good wrestling. He notes Walker's size and strength make him hard to take down and hold down, and predicts Walker wins by first-round knockout, though he admits both are chinny and someone is getting knocked out.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Johnny Walker to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Cody picks Johnny Walker as a dog, despite not trusting him. He notes that Cuțelaba overexerts and gasses, and that Walker has a reach advantage and can dictate range. He is concerned about Walker's style under John Kavanagh but thinks the point-fighting approach could work. He says he will not bet Walker but picks him for the show.

"i'll pick walker for the purposes of this show but i do not trust him with my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Daniel Levi leans Ion Cutelaba but with very low confidence. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation, noting both fighters are unreliable glass cannons. He points to Cutelaba's wrestling advantage and power, but questions whether Cutelaba will use wrestling or brawl. He also mentions Walker's confidence issues after knockout losses and his own chin problems. Levi says he can't trust either guy and won't bet the -200 on Cutelaba.

"I'll pick kuta lava because of the you know the wrestling advantage is he even going to use the wrestling advantage."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Jacob calls it a coin toss but leans toward Cuțelaba because the path to victory is clear via wrestling. He notes both fighters have no chins and do stupid things, making it unpredictable. He placed a bet on under 1.5 rounds at plus money for premium members, as he expects a finish.

under 1.5 rounds at plus money
"My play for this is under one and a half rounds and I placed that for our premium members on Sunday when I first saw that it was plus money."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

The host picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by knockout but is not confident at -200. He notes Cuțelaba's power and durability advantage, but thinks Walker's size could make it difficult for Cuțelaba to hold him down. He sees Walker as a live dog and won't bet the moneyline.

Ion Cuțelaba by knockout (even money)
"I'm picking him to win and I think he wins this fight by knockout but even his knockout prop is at even money so not enough juice."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Paul also picks Johnny Walker, but is very hesitant. He notes that Cuțelaba has cardio issues and is undersized, and that Walker has the reach and flashy techniques to pick him apart. However, he acknowledges that Cuțelaba could land a big shot and knock Walker out. He says he is 'super scared' of this fight.

"i could see eon knocking him out it's a fight i'm super super scared because both of these guys are very very untrustworthy but i'll side with you ever so slightly with the underdog johnny walker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Ion Cuțelaba

The MMA Guru picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round TKO. He describes Walker coming out with a flying attack, Cuțelaba moving away and wagging his finger. Cuțelaba chews at the inside leg, shoots a takedown, but Walker explodes up. Against the cage, Cuțelaba lands punches on Walker, who takes them but is known to be vulnerable. They separate, Cuțelaba fakes a takedown, throws an overhand, rocks Walker, and finishes with ground and pound.

first round TKO
"I'm gonna go over yarn kutilaba first round TKO"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, expecting his forward pressure, craziness, and size to frustrate Thiago Santos, who is a shell of his former self after knee injuries and three straight losses. He notes that Santos has massive power and could knock anyone out, but his cardio suffers and he may be gun-shy. Walker is never afraid to throw and will stay busy. Angelo likes Walker at plus 145 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,400. He also likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.

moneyline bet at +145, over on rounds, more more monkey knife fight
"johnny walker is the pick johnny walker will be in my my draftkings lineup i will probably have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Big Brady picks Thiago Santos to win, citing his experience, better competition, and more paths to victory. He notes Santos has fought Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Rakic, while Walker's best wins are over lesser competition. Walker is very hittable (31% striking defense) and chinny, while Santos hits hard. Santos has better cardio, having gone five rounds with Jones, while Walker fades after the first round. Brady suggests a ground game path for Santos, similar to his win over Kevin Holland. He recommends a violence play rather than the moneyline.

fight ends inside distance (violence play)
"i'm gonna go santos here i'm gonna go with more experience fighter better competition a better gas tank"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Cody picks Thiago Santos based on superior experience and durability. He notes that Santos has slowed down and his knees are shot, but he still hits hard and can drag the fight into later rounds. He expects Santos to survive Walker's early explosiveness and then pressure him, eventually landing a finish in the second, third, or fourth round. He highlights that Santos outstruck Alexander Rakic in their fight and has better cardio than Walker, who has never gone five rounds.

"the official pick will be thiago santos based on the superior experience and durability"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker as the underdog, citing that both fighters have declined since their surgeries—Santos after ACL surgery and Walker after shoulder injury. He notes Walker's dynamic striking and finishing ability but acknowledges his poor durability and tendency to flop when hit. Levi believes the fight is a coin flip about who lands first, but he leans Walker because of motivation concerns for the nearly 40-year-old Santos with a baby on the way. He expects a knockout either way and takes the underdog.

fight doesn't go to decision; knockout likely
"give me the underdog give me johnny walker to knock out thiago santos but don't quote me on it cause i mean it's one of these things where either guy can hit the deck"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Thiago Santos

I think Santos is the more disciplined striker and should be able to counter Walker's wildness. Walker is explosive but hittable and has poor durability. However, I'm concerned about Santos's recent performances and knee surgeries. I like Santos inside the distance at -120 and also like the under 1.5 rounds. I'm picking Santos but not with high confidence.

Santos inside the distance -120, under 1.5 rounds even money
"I kind of like santo's itd minus 120"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Santos but with less confidence. He notes that Walker is dangerous early but has never gone five rounds and his cardio is suspect. He believes Santos's chin holds up better at 205 and that Walker's grappling is not a major concern. He does not have a bet on Santos straight up but suggests looking at live betting after the first round if Santos survives.

Live betting after round one if Santos survives
"santos for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos, despite rooting for Johnny Walker. He notes Santos' check hook is his best weapon and Walker leaves himself open when rushing in. Walker has been KO'd in most of his losses by rushing in. Santos has five-round experience and still has power. He predicts Santos will catch Walker with a check hook and finish him by KO.

Santos by KO
"i'm gonna go with thiago santos catching johnny walker rushing in with a check hook putting him down finishing him off"