Career Averages - Niko Price
Career Averages - Alex Oliveira
Niko Price
Alex Oliveira
Niko Price - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.
Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.
Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.
Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.
The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.
Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.
Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 19 of 30 | 63% | 12 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 9 of 23 | 39% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 19 of 30 | 63% | 12 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 9 of 23 | 39% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Veretennikov (-225); Price (+185)
Round 1
A pink slip derby at 170 pounds comes next as Kazakhstan native Veretennikov (13-7, 1-3 UFC) looks to get back in the win column at the expense of the similarly skidding Price (16-9, 2 NC; 8-9, 2 NC UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni will know first who ends up prevailing, and he stands guard until needed. Late replacement Price offers a sporting tap of gloves, and it is accepted.
Price leads off with a sweeping low kick, and he leaps forward to engage, throwing hands. Veretennikov meets him in the pocket with his fists, and he ends a combo with a low kick that makes Price wince. Veretennikov lands on the Floridian cleanly upstairs, knocking him back and winding up in a clinch. Veretennikov’s lumps up the midsection with knees, setting them up when an opening presents itself to unleash them. He frames off with right hands, and Price beats him to the punch on the way to a reset. Price wades into the fray, and Veretennikov busts him in the chops with his counters. Veretennikov’s heavy hands back Price against the fence after blocking a front kick, and he smashes Price in the face with a right hand that shakes him up badly. Veretennikov appears surprised that Price’s hands dropped from the first blow, and he delivers a concussive knee to the jaw that puts Price on ice skates.
Veretennikov stands Price back up with an elbow that partially shut his lights off, and he knocks a semi-conscious Price’s head around with huge swings until an intervening Tognoni realizes that Price is completely out on his feet with one finger stuck in the cage the only thing keeping him from collapsing.
The mighty knockout is a huge feather in the cap of Veretennikov, whose roster spot might have been terminated with a defeat. Price comes to, and he does not know what happened, upset that the fight has been stopped but unsure why. He manages to come around, and he gives it up for the fighter named “Gladiator” who just deprived him of his consciousness.
The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Niko Price R1 1:42 via KO (Elbow and Punches)
Angelo picks Nikolay Veretennikov, reasoning that he is a powerful striker who hits hard, while his opponent Jose Henrique (Niko Price) is very hittable. He acknowledges that Veretennikov has trouble with takedowns but thinks if he doesn't worry about that and just moves forward, he can win or finish the fight. He calls it a low-level fight and uses simple math: good striker vs guy who gets hit.
Cody leans towards Niko Price as a dog, noting Veretennikov's unimpressive record and Price's toughness. He admits Price is a shell of his former self but sees a path via takedowns or durability. Cody is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling the fight terrible but picking Veretennikov. He notes that Price is a glass cannon who no longer has the speed or willingness to pull the trigger, and that Veretennikov should have this in the bag even if he doesn't press. Connor emphasizes that Price will walk onto shots.
Paul picks Nikolay Veretennikov, citing Price's decline in durability and cardio. He notes Veretennikov's power and body work, and Price's poor takedown defense. Paul expects Veretennikov to win by knockout or decision, though the price is high.
The host picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Niko Price. He notes Veretennikov took Michael Morales to a split decision, though he looked iffy against Prado. He thinks Price has lost too many times, moves slow, and despite some power and athleticism, Veretennikov should win a competitive 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Veretennikov despite calling the fight awful. He argues that Niko Price is washed up, slower, and more hittable, and that Veretennikov should win by using his reach and straight punches. Zane notes that Price can't do anything without running into a straight punch, and Veretennikov could also take him down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 34 of 61 | 55% | 46 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacobe Smith | 0 | 46 of 74 | 62% | 73 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacobe Smith | 0 | 33 of 53 | 62% | 46 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 23 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacobe Smith | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 27 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 34 of 61 | 55% | 19 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 27 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 |
| Jacobe Smith | 46 of 74 | 62% | 39 of 66 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 19 of 37 | 51% | 10 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Jacobe Smith | 33 of 53 | 62% | 27 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 21 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 |
| Jacobe Smith | 13 of 21 | 61% | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 10 |
Angelo picks Jacobe Smith because he sees him as a strong prospect with wrestling and finishing ability, while Niko Price is older, has a weak chin, and is being fed to prospects. He notes that Price is fun but past his prime, and Smith's wrestling and pace will be too much. He warns against betting such heavy favorites, saying risking $1400 to make $100 is not worth it.
Big Brady is very confident in Jacobe Smith, describing it as a bad matchup for Niko Price. He notes Price is older, has taken a lot of damage, and is on a decline, while Smith has power and wrestling. Brady believes Smith can knock Price out on the feet or take him down and use vicious ground and pound. He predicts a first-round knockout, comparing it to the Wellmaker vs Moutinho fight.
The host expects Jacobe Smith to flatline Niko Price within the first round and a half, citing Smith's youth and power. He notes the odds are steep at minus 2000, but still predicts an early knockout finish.
The host calls this a 'big lock of the card', confidently predicting Jacobe Smith to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Smith's impressive KO debut and believes he will repeat that performance against an aging Niko Price who looked geriatric in his last fight. The host notes that Smith's grappling and power will be too much for Price.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 68 of 127 | 53% | 141 of 223 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 2 | 0 | 9:14 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 58 of 100 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 45 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 52 of 76 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 44 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themba Gorimbo | 68 of 127 | 53% | 44 of 97 | 9 of 15 | 15 of 15 | 43 of 85 | 6 of 13 | 19 of 29 |
| Niko Price | 16 of 53 | 30% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Themba Gorimbo | 32 of 67 | 47% | 21 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 16 |
| Niko Price | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Themba Gorimbo | 32 of 53 | 60% | 21 of 37 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 33 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 11 |
| Niko Price | 9 of 31 | 29% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Themba Gorimbo | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gorimbo (-278), Price (+225)
Round 1
One of two entries tonight in the “welterweight action fight club” will play out next, as Gorimbo (13-4, 3-1 UFC) is entering that category while Price (16-7, 2 NC; 8-7, 2 NC UFC) has been a member practically since day one. Any matchup in that section of 170-pound fighters seems to have a greater likelihood—anecdotally, with those numbers not officially tracked right now—of receiving some sort of “of the night” bonus. Both fighters could use it, as Gorimbo is famous for having seven dollars in his bank account while Price has six kids to feed. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the Octagon ranger, and when he calls for them to fight, they touch gloves. Price walks directly into a front kick when he moves to the center of the cage, and he further gets his bell rung by flying punches from Gorimbo. The Zimbabwe native lets his hands fly, and Price has to reset as he gets clipped with a left hand. Gorimbo aims two thudding leg kicks to the front leg of his foe, and when Price tries to counter with a third, Gorimbo dodges and connects with it. Gorimbo further does damage with his calf kick, and he strings together a pair of straight punches with a step-in knee to the belly. Price takes another chopping kick as he slowly advances, and Gorimbo sticks him with a right hand. Price attempts a body kick, and he gets caught with a fastball of a right hand. Price still marches ever onward, through a low kick and a one-two without flinching. Price squares up, opening him up to three punches, a leg kick and a takedown shot. “The Answer” deposits Price on his back, where he starts working with elbows and punches. Price gets stacked up when attempting an armbar, as Gorimbo punches through it to stop it from materializing. Gorimbo steps over to half guard as Price defends with a kimura sweep, and Gorimbo breaks out of it to open Price up with punches and effective elbows. Price looks to sit up, and Gorimbo hops around to take his back and get both hooks in. Price stands up, and Gorimbo hangs on his foe’s back and grips hold of a neck crank. Price responds by slamming Gorimbo on his head, and Gorimbo rides it out to secure a body triangle. From an awkward angle, the two punch one another until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Round 2
Price starts out the second round marching Gorimbo down, putting a jab and a front kick in his face early. Gorimbo chains punches together in response, with two up top and then a few to the body. Price retaliates with a body kick, and he catches Gorimbo coming in but still eats a few back. Gorimbo winds up with his power calf kick, and he plants the ball of his foot on Price’s sternum. Price punches his way into a clinch, and Gorimbo shakes him up with left hooks and uppercuts up close before tackling Price to the mat. Price turns to his stomach to survive and stand back up, all while eating clubbing left hands. Price gets to his knees and then back upright, and Gorimbo hurriedly mat returns him. Price once more stands, and Gorimbo is imposing his full weight on him, kneeing him in the breadbasket. They trade knees from close proximity, and Gorimbo tries for a trip on the inside but does not land it. Price turns him around as they dirty box with one another, and Price attacks a double that is easily stifled. Price goes after another double, transitioning to a single as Gorimbo’s hips are wide. Gorimbo turns the corner and knees Price in the chest, and they get back upright and split up. Price stalks a potentially tiring Gorimbo down and slugs him in the chops, getting his attention with power punches until they get clinched. Gorimbo responds with a knee on the break, and Price is out of range. Price marches forward to connect with a one-two, and Gorimbo slaps his front leg and then jabs him to the body with a front kick. Price meanders forward, left eye bloodied, and he walks into a takedown shot. Gorimbo pushes through his hips, tosses aside a leglock and starts smacking Price upside the head. Price stands up, and Gorimbo wrenches him down by imposing his body weight on him. As Price defends with a kimura, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Round 3
The welterweights reach Round 3, tired and beat up but still ready for another five minutes. Gorimbo leads off with two chopping kicks, hits a third and then goes up top with his other leg. Price sees it coming in the nick of time and defends a subsequent shot with a guillotine choke. Gorimbo powers through the choke to slam Price on his back, opening up with ground-and-pound as Price tries to push off the fence with his foot. Gorimbo controls his man while slinging short right hands, keeping Price trapped between the corner of the floor and the wall. Price again tries to push off the fence, this time tugging on the links with his toes. Dean calls him on this, and Price stops. Price explodes to sit up, only for Gorimbo grind him back down while keeping Price’s right leg laced to stop him from escaping. Price kicks his foe off his chest, and Gorimbo stands and backs up. Price throws a hard kick to the calf from his back, and Gorimbo allows him to do this so he can dive in to reclaim top position. Gorimbo draws further blood with slow but methodical strikes, stepping over to half guard on the other side. Price times this guard pass to burst upright with 55 seconds left in the round. Gorimbo cinches his hands around the waist to dump Price to the floor. Price stands up again through sheer force of will, and Gorimbo hangs on from his back and slides off. Gorimbo looks for an unorthodox banana split, Suloev stretch or kneebar, and time expires before he can get anything.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
The Official Result
Themba Gorimbo def. Niko Price via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Themba Gorimbo, acknowledging that picking against Niko Price is difficult due to his unpredictability. However, he believes Gorimbo is the overall better fighter with a good combination of technical striking, wrestling, and the ability to push forward. He notes that Price can win on any given day but that Gorimbo's skills should prevail.
Big Brady picks Themba Gorimbo to win by first-round knockout. He notes Gorimbo is improving rapidly while Price is diminishing, having been knocked out by Robbie Lawler in 30 seconds and looking poor in recent fights. He questions whether Gorimbo will stand and bang or wrestle, but hopes for an exciting finish. He thinks the line is wild at -375 but still picks Gorimbo. He mentions Gorimbo could also control Price on the ground like he did against Brahimaj.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Niko Price has looked bad for years and has no way to stop a takedown. He points out that Price's last funky knockout was in 2019 and he has since struggled. Connor believes Gorimbo's wrestling, though not great, is enough to control Price.
Daniel is unimpressed with Gorimbo's skills, calling him slow and not a future top-15 guy, but he acknowledges that Price may be too washed to capitalize. He loves Price's ability off his back but is not confident enough to pick him. Daniel decides to pass on betting this fight, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The host is surprised the line is so wide, as Gorimbo is on a three-fight winning streak but not all that good. Price has veteran experience and durability; if he holds up early, Gorimbo will struggle to grind him out. Price has a better gas tank and should pull away late, finishing in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo, citing his speed advantage on the feet and Price's suspect chin. He notes that Gorimbo is on a three-fight win streak and is being given 'layups' by the UFC. He expects Gorimbo to win by TKO on the feet, as Price is too slow and doesn't have the grappling to take Gorimbo down.
Zane thinks Gorimbo can blanket Price with his wrestling, even though Gorimbo's control is poor and he often stalls in ugly positions. He notes that Price has looked washed for years, lacks preventative skills, and has no way to stop takedowns. Zane acknowledges it's not much but believes Gorimbo can tie Price up and slow him down.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 108 of 224 | 48% | 138 of 259 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:37 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 96 of 210 | 45% | 111 of 225 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 21 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 40 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 50 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 58 of 108 | 53% | 67 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 41 of 95 | 43% | 41 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 108 of 224 | 48% | 78 of 181 | 24 of 33 | 6 of 10 | 78 of 182 | 9 of 19 | 21 of 23 |
| Alex Morono | 96 of 210 | 45% | 74 of 184 | 13 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 91 of 204 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 16 of 51 | 31% | 12 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 34 of 72 | 47% | 26 of 63 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 34 of 65 | 52% | 22 of 48 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 44 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 16 |
| Alex Morono | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 58 of 108 | 53% | 44 of 88 | 12 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 48 of 91 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Alex Morono | 41 of 95 | 43% | 29 of 81 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 39 of 92 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.
Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.
Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.
Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.
The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.
Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.
Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.
Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.
Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.
Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.
James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.
Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.
Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.
Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 110 of 247 | 44% | 150 of 293 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 63 of 139 | 45% | 64 of 140 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 36 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 85 | 40% | 46 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 42 of 75 | 56% | 68 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 110 of 247 | 44% | 66 of 197 | 16 of 22 | 28 of 28 | 88 of 218 | 14 of 21 | 8 of 8 |
| Niko Price | 63 of 139 | 45% | 49 of 123 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 57 of 129 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 34 of 87 | 39% | 12 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 17 of 17 | 30 of 80 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 20 of 53 | 37% | 12 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 34 of 85 | 40% | 20 of 68 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 77 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 17 of 40 | 42% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 42 of 75 | 56% | 34 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 |
| Niko Price | 26 of 46 | 56% | 24 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 3 |
Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.
Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.
Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.
Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.
The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.
Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.
Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 65 of 112 | 58% | 83 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 108 of 167 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 34 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 53 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 65 of 112 | 58% | 31 of 72 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 17 | 56 of 99 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 64 of 116 | 55% | 37 of 83 | 7 of 11 | 20 of 22 | 45 of 93 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 7 of 17 | 41% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 22 | 72% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 19 of 35 | 54% | 9 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 14 of 26 | 53% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 39 of 60 | 65% | 19 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 53 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.
Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.
Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.
Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.
I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.
Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.
Alex Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 50 of 76 | 65% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 50 of 76 | 65% | 24 of 48 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 23 | 34 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 44 | 47% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 31 of 50 | 62% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 21 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 19 of 39 | 48% | 6 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 19 of 26 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
| Alex Oliveira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Many expect that this welterweight scrap on the docket now is a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” candidate, as both Holland (21-7, 1 NC; 8-4, 1 NC UFC) and Oliveira (22-11-1, 2 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) love to put on a show. Both men had no issue making the 171-pound limit, and they appear to be fired up and excited to get after it. Referee Chris Tognoni wrangles them long enough to get them to stand behind their respective black lines, and when the fight begins, they rush together to touch gloves. Holland leads the dance with a low kick that connects and a high kick that whizzes past the head of “Cowboy.” Holland connects with another leg kick, drawing a reaction from Oliveira and a response with one of his own. Holland scores a third low kick to the calf, and he just misses when Oliveira wings a big right hook at him. Holland continues to chip away from the outside, and Oliveira catches him on the way in with a right hand counter that knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet. Holland is able to jump back up to his feet and block a flying knee that soars towards him, and he gets back to poking with calf kicks. Holland lunges forward with a right hand, and Oliveira is right there to return fire with a swiping right hook. The punches from Oliveira make Holland lean off-balance. Holland gets cracked with a right hand as he advances, and when he falls to the ground, he laces his legs up for a leglock. Oliveira is able to step out of danger, and he lifts Holland up and slams him down to the mat. Holland is able to scramble away, and he blasts “Cowboy” in the face with a crisp right hand that puts the Brazilian on rubber legs. Not one to shy away from a brawl, Oliveira swings right back and gets Holland’s respect with a few power shots that make Holland’s rear leg lock up for a second. Both men gather themselves and get back to kickboxing range, where Holland is comfortable working with leg kicks and away from the swinging punches that whiz at him. Oliveira chops down Holland’s lead leg with a kick that is much heavier than the ones Holland are throwing, and Holland does a twirl and comes back out swinging. Holland kicks low, and he has it checked, but it seems to have affected Oliveira as well. Oliveira tries to grab the kick, but when it lands, he throws back at Holland. Holland spins from the kick, and he gets snagged against from the Brazilian. In a ridiculous scramble, Oliveira takes his foe’s back and cinches up a rear-naked choke. Instead of being concerned at all, “Trailblazer” motions to thumbs-up signs from each hand to the camera, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 2
The hands get touched to start off the second round, and Oliveira appears to come out limping. Despite this, Oliveira charges ahead with a low kick, and he gets clipped with a small right hand counter. Holland smells blood, and he races out drop hammers on his wounded opponent. The knees of “Cowboy” give way beneath him and he crumbles to the mat, and Holland can see the finish line and delivers a brutal salvo of punches to end the fight. As Oliveira flails and protects himself from harm, Holland switches to elbows and smashes them in his adversary’s face one after the other. Unleashing the thunder, Holland gives it everything he has to record the finish, and Tognoni jumps in to pull Holland off of a wrecked “Cowboy.” There is no ill will between the two after the furious five-plus minutes of ferocity, and they hug it out to celebrate a hard-fought battle.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Alex Oliveira R2 0:38 via TKO (Elbows)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.
Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.
Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.
Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.
The MMA Guru calls Kevin Holland a lock over Alex Oliveira, citing Oliveira's decreased durability since a grenade attack and his tendency to slow down in fights. He believes Holland's youth, durability, and scrappiness will overwhelm Oliveira, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Oliveira has been chinned easily recently and that Holland's weight cut to welterweight should be manageable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 65 of 112 | 58% | 83 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 108 of 167 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 34 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 53 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 65 of 112 | 58% | 31 of 72 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 17 | 56 of 99 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 64 of 116 | 55% | 37 of 83 | 7 of 11 | 20 of 22 | 45 of 93 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 7 of 17 | 41% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 22 | 72% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 19 of 35 | 54% | 9 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 14 of 26 | 53% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 39 of 60 | 65% | 19 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 53 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.
Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.
Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.
Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.
I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.
Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Big Brady picks Oliveira to win a close decision as an underdog. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency is a concern, but if the best version shows up, he can mix in takedowns and top control. He thinks the fight should be closer to a pick'em and likes the value on Oliveira. He also mentions Brown's chin is questionable.
Cody is high on Brown, noting his consistent improvement and physical advantages. He points out Oliveira's lack of motivation and poor recent performances. He expects Brown to use his length and striking to control the fight, and thinks Oliveira will fade if he doesn't get an early finish. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown.
Daniel picks Randy Brown, believing his length and improving game will be too much for Alex Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency and that Brown will pull away in the later rounds, possibly getting a finish. He expects the first round to be close.
I lean Brown here. He has better cardio and technique, and Oliveira is inconsistent. Brown should use his reach and jab to outpoint Oliveira. I like Brown by decision at +225, and the over 1.5 at -225 is also solid. However, Oliveira could surprise with a wild performance, so confidence is not high.
Paul picks Brown, citing his improvement, length, and reach advantage. He notes Oliveira's distractions (nine kids, eight baby mamas) and declining interest. He expects Brown to use his jab and distance to outbox Oliveira, and thinks Oliveira's best days are behind him. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown after round one.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown by decision. He notes that Oliveira is injury-prone and often breaks toes or ribs during fights, while Brown is more durable. He predicts Oliveira wins the first round but Brown comes back in the second and third, winning 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.
The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 45 of 93 | 48% | 48 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 30 of 68 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 45 of 93 | 48% | 19 of 51 | 16 of 29 | 10 of 13 | 37 of 85 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 29 of 67 | 43% | 13 of 46 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 7 of 21 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 17 of 33 | 51% | 9 of 17 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 10 of 17 | 58% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 19 of 36 | 52% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 12 of 29 | 41% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.
Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.
Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 61 of 98 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 62 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 23 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 23 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 40 of 77 | 51% | 21 of 56 | 11 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 35 of 67 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 23 of 50 | 46% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 23 of 41 | 56% | 9 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Opening up the main card is a battle between two welterweights in desperate need of a win as “Cowboy” Oliveira (19-8-1, 2 NC; 9-6, 1 NC UFC) takes on Griffin (15-7, 3-5 UFC) . Drawing the assignment is referee Mark Smith. There is no glove touch, as Griffin comes out firing with a heavy one-two that just misses the mark. Griffin is racing after him, and gets clipped on the way in but does not pull back. “Pain” swings heavily, but does not connect flush, as Oliveira dances away and spins about almost to celebrate that he did not get hit. Oliveira crashes forward and dings him with a right hand before clinching up, and Griffin fights himself free. The two try to paw out their left hands for range, and Oliveira throws a right hand so hard he nearly falls over. The two both wing their punches, and Oliveira sticks out a jab. Griffin takes a one-two, and comes right back with a similar combination but does not score it. The two swing and trade at the same time, and Griffin tags him and cause Oliveira to go flailing with an uppercut. Griffin hits a takedown, and his corner screams at him to back off and do damage. In full guard, Griffin stays heavy while throwing some short punches, and Smith chides Griffin on punching to the back of the head. Griffin passes to half guard, and Oliveira tries to pull himself up the fence so Smith shouts at him to let it go. Griffin stays tight and looks to tie up Oliveira’s arm with his leg, but the Brazilian gets his arm free before interlocking his toes in the fence. Smith again warns him to let go of the cage, and has to slap Oliveira’s toes out. All the while, Griffin slowly works with some elbows and looks at an arm-triangle choke, but with Oliveira against the cage wall, he cannot get leverage to set anything up. As Oliveira springs to his feet, Griffin takes his back, but “Cowboy” rips himself free and the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
Like the first, Griffin practically sprints towards his opponent to land a long jab. Oliveira is ready for it, and catches him before landing two heavy leg kicks that make Griffin’s knee a little wobbly. Oliveira fires out a few more jabs, and Griffin is busted up from these shots with a cut above his right eye towards the bridge of his nose. Oliveira rushes in with a strike, and Griffin times a takedown but the Brazilian halts it. Instead, he turns the position around tries to pull for a single leg takedown, and we can see the blood pouring out of Griffin’s forehead. Smith calls in the doctor to check on the cut, which we can see came from a fierce uppercut. The doctor clears him to continue, and we are back to it. The two men start off with some jabs, and Oliveira pursues the low calf kick that is really irritating Griffin quickly. The two come together and swing, and Oliveira is timing the uppercut but cannot score it. The Brazilian lands an outside and then inside leg kick to the damaged leg, and takes a powerful right hand along the way. The two both come together with huge right hands, and both are clear of the mark with their home run shots. Griffin clinches up, but again Oliveira reverses him. In an attempt to break free, Oliveira pirouettes with a spinning elbow and Griffin is barely able to block it. Griffin shoots in low for a takedown, and Oliveira defends it with a guillotine before pushing him against the fence. After some tense but slow clinch work, “Cowboy” pursues a single but cannot get it, so Griffin breaks free and swings a heavy right hand that is short of the mark. Oliveira stings him with two more right hands, and when Griffin goes after a labored spinning back fist, Oliveira shoots low for one last takedown to seal the round. He does not land it, and the round is over with Griffin bleeding heavily.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
The last round kicks off with Griffin cleared to continue, as we see a separate cut under Griffin’s other eye. Oliveira scores a few long front kicks where he stabs with his toes, and then goes up top with a head kick that is blocked. Griffin tries to close the distance, and Oliveira spins him around to get a takedown. “Pain” stays strong, and spins him around while taking a few elbows to the side and back of his head. Griffin complains, and Smith warns the Brazilian as a cut has now opened on the top of Griffin’s head. This fight could quickly turn into a performance from the Edwin Dewees playbook, and Oliveira separates only to hit a takedown. “Cowboy” lands on top and pursues a choke, before taking full mount, and Griffin is in a bad way as the blood pours into his eye. Oliveira pulls for a straight armlock while on top, and bails on it to end in half guard. Griffin wears a crimson mask and is grimacing as he is not likely able to see, and Oliveira capitalizes with a few short but effective punches on top. The Brazilian once more takes mount, and is starting to unload punches while Griffin tries to blink his eyes clear. Griffin scrambles and manages to reverse the position, and Oliveira falls to his back when he cannot come close to sinking in a guillotine choke. Griffin steps over to half guard and drops some elbows on his man, and Oliveira is holding on for dear life. With 80 seconds to go, Griffin is giving Oliveira his best “You don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression as he bleeds down on his opponent without getting many strikes off. Griffin grinds and starts to pour it on with some very short elbows and punches to try to steal the round. The judges have their hands full in this round, as Griffin ends the fight on top. What a bloody mess of a battle, but it sure was fun.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Alex Oliveira def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.
Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 31 of 84 | 36% | 64 of 122 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 5:29 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 31 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 34 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 10 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 31 of 84 | 36% | 19 of 64 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 45 | 11 of 18 | 11 of 21 |
| Alex Oliveira | 18 of 47 | 38% | 14 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 7 of 29 | 24% | 0 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 12 of 32 | 37% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 14 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 13 of 26 | 50% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 20 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Going back to welterweight, the always-exciting Oliveira (19-7-1, 2 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) tries to spoil the homecoming of Denmark's Dalby (17-3-1, 1 NC; 1-2-1 UFC). In his walk to the cage, Dalby is accompanied by the Denmark National Anthem, as performed by his fiancée Dzifa Adjo Akpalu. The referee taking charge of the cage is Rebin Saber. Oliveira opens up with a low leg kick, and then charges forward with a slew of punches that all fall short. The crowd is electric for their home country fighter, who scores a few slapping leg kicks while trying to find his range on the elusive Brazilian. Dalby leaps through the air with a knee, and as he falls shy of the target, Oliveira tries to counter on the way down, but he too misses. Dalby scores an inside leg kick, and Oliveira replies with one that Dalby checks. "Cowboy" whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, and Dalby responds with a spinning back kick that is nowhere near the mark. Dalby chases Oliveira down with a few punches, punctuated by a head kick that does not land flush. The Dane again blitzes forward, partially connecting with a right hand while avoiding the hard counter from the Brazilian. As Oliveira throws a big right over the top, Dalby shoots in for a takedown, but Oliveira stuffs it. Dalby presses Oliveira against the fence and tries to trip his opponent down, but Oliveira keeps his balance and stays upright, although his back is against the cage. Unsuccessful on another trip, it is actually Oliveira who gets the fight down, scooping the legs of Dalby while attempting to take the back. Returning to full guard, Oliveira drops down a loud right hand and little more, while Dalby tries to set up a triangle. Oliveira shucks off the attempt and lands in half guard, before Dalby reverses position and gets Oliveira down. The crowd is so loud cheering for Dalby that we cannot hear the horn sounding, but the round is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
Oliveira charges forward to begin the round, but does not successfully land on his first combination. Dalby plants a front kick to the chest of his adversary, and unfortunately Oliveira takes an eye poke and makes the referee stop the action. The fight resumes after a very short break, and the two men trade leg kicks before slamming hooks on each other's chins. In the flurry, Dalby floats up a head kick that blasts Oliveira on the side of the head, causing the Brazilian to clinch up. This does not prove to his advantage, as Dalby circles around and scoops the legs from underneath his opponent, with Dalby landing on top to the delight of the crowd. Quickly passing to half guard, Dalby drops down a few short elbows and punches to frustrating effect, so Oliveira tries to turn out of the position. Dalby lands a few punches that might be close to the back of his opponent's head, and then hammers down a couple elbows that are quite effective. Dalby pounds Oliveira with several right hands until the Brazilian has had enough, and Oliveira powers out of the position to stand up. Dalby leans heavy against the fence, and he has successfully bloodied the nose of "Cowboy." On the break, Oliveira tries to spin with a back elbow, but Dalby dodges it and comes on strong, landing punch after punch while Oliveira turtles up. With his opponent possibly playing possum, Dalby stays patient and continues to land on Oliveira. The Brazilian falls to the canvas, and in a scramble Oliveira briefly takes position, but he falls off the back and Dalby ends up on top. Oliveira lands an illegal upkick, causing Saber to pause the action and admonish Oliveira, and stands them back up. With seconds remaining, Oliveira cracks Dalby with a left hand, but Dalby walks it off and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Oliveira's corner implores their fighter to "believe in yourself," causing Oliveira to smile as the final round begins. Dalby just misses with a head kick, causing the crowd to loudly gasp. Dalby shoots in for a double leg takedown and cannot land it, so Oliveira fishes for a guillotine choke. Unable to secure it, the Brazilian bails on it and spins Dalby against the fence. Oliveira tries to kick out the leg of his opponent, and lifts Dalby up and throws him to the cage floor. In side control, Oliveira throws a few knees to the body and grinds his elbow on the Dane's face. Dalby retains half guard, and is looking to sweep the Brazilian, but Oliveira stays strong and hammers down with several punches before the referee inexplicably stands them up. Not wanting to stay on the feet, Oliveira leaps into a double leg takedown, and scores it to drag Dalby back down. "Lokomotivo" rolls out and ends up on top, before taking full mount, and the crowd is deafening in support of their fighter. Dalby postures up to rain down punches and elbows, and then looks to set up an arm-triangle choke before giving it up to keep his strikes going. Dalby sits back up and smashes a few huge elbows to punctuate the fight, and the crowd is elated at Dalby's performance as the bout concludes. The two men embrace and raise their arms in the air after an exciting battle.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 0 | 48 of 137 | 35% | 50 of 139 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 75 of 120 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 0 | 15 of 55 | 27% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 48 of 137 | 35% | 30 of 110 | 7 of 16 | 11 of 11 | 42 of 125 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 65 of 110 | 59% | 48 of 90 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 | 32 of 72 | 18 of 19 | 15 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 17 of 48 | 35% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 36 | 58% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 18 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 15 of 55 | 27% | 9 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 24 of 45 | 53% | 18 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.
Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.
Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.
Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.
I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.
Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.
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