vs
-188 +176
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 11"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Niko Price
5.11 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
5.57 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alex Oliveira
2.99 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.55 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
2.35 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Niko Price
Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
BetWay +140
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
FanDuel +420
Alex Oliveira
Moneyline
FanDuel +176
KO/TKO
BetRivers +550
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
FanDuel +460
Niko Price - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.

Chiesa by submission round 1
"I think Michael Chiesa goes out there. I think he takes down Niko Price, and I think he runs through him like a hot knife through butter."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.

"Michael Chiesa is going to get the takedowns. And when he takes him down, he's going to sub him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"I think Michael Kiesa would have beaten Nico Price at every single point."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.

"I think that Chiesa's going to be able to use that physicality, backpack Niko Price, come out here and probably get a rear naked choke."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Michael Chiesa

The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Bets under 2.5 rounds as a better alternative to moneyline.
"I think it's quite likely Chiesa will take Price down and submit him pretty quickly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.

submission, parlay piece
"I don't mind parlaying Kiesta at this number. Uh I know he's at the end of his career, this is his retirement fight, but Nico Price at this point in time is a layup fight for him to get a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.

"Chiesa wins this fight pretty... He's a parlay piece this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.

"I think Kasa wins this with his grappling, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"Not a close booking at this point price is looking slower than ever."
KO R1 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Niko Price 0 9 of 23 39% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Niko Price 0 9 of 23 39% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolay Veretennikov 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 21 9 of 9 0 of 0
Niko Price 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 21 9 of 9 0 of 0
Niko Price 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Niko Price
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Veretennikov (-225); Price (+185)

Round 1
A pink slip derby at 170 pounds comes next as Kazakhstan native Veretennikov (13-7, 1-3 UFC) looks to get back in the win column at the expense of the similarly skidding Price (16-9, 2 NC; 8-9, 2 NC UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni will know first who ends up prevailing, and he stands guard until needed. Late replacement Price offers a sporting tap of gloves, and it is accepted.
Price leads off with a sweeping low kick, and he leaps forward to engage, throwing hands. Veretennikov meets him in the pocket with his fists, and he ends a combo with a low kick that makes Price wince. Veretennikov lands on the Floridian cleanly upstairs, knocking him back and winding up in a clinch. Veretennikov’s lumps up the midsection with knees, setting them up when an opening presents itself to unleash them. He frames off with right hands, and Price beats him to the punch on the way to a reset. Price wades into the fray, and Veretennikov busts him in the chops with his counters. Veretennikov’s heavy hands back Price against the fence after blocking a front kick, and he smashes Price in the face with a right hand that shakes him up badly. Veretennikov appears surprised that Price’s hands dropped from the first blow, and he delivers a concussive knee to the jaw that puts Price on ice skates.
Veretennikov stands Price back up with an elbow that partially shut his lights off, and he knocks a semi-conscious Price’s head around with huge swings until an intervening Tognoni realizes that Price is completely out on his feet with one finger stuck in the cage the only thing keeping him from collapsing.
The mighty knockout is a huge feather in the cap of Veretennikov, whose roster spot might have been terminated with a defeat. Price comes to, and he does not know what happened, upset that the fight has been stopped but unsure why. He manages to come around, and he gives it up for the fighter named “Gladiator” who just deprived him of his consciousness.

The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Niko Price R1 1:42 via KO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Angelo picks Nikolay Veretennikov, reasoning that he is a powerful striker who hits hard, while his opponent Jose Henrique (Niko Price) is very hittable. He acknowledges that Veretennikov has trouble with takedowns but thinks if he doesn't worry about that and just moves forward, he can win or finish the fight. He calls it a low-level fight and uses simple math: good striker vs guy who gets hit.

"I'm going to pick Nikolai here. He is the slight underdog. Neither one of these guys are very good, but let's just simple math it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans towards Niko Price as a dog, noting Veretennikov's unimpressive record and Price's toughness. He admits Price is a shell of his former self but sees a path via takedowns or durability. Cody is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm tempted to take a dog shot on Nico Price. I don't know if I'm going to have the balls to actually click that button."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Connor agrees with Zane, calling the fight terrible but picking Veretennikov. He notes that Price is a glass cannon who no longer has the speed or willingness to pull the trigger, and that Veretennikov should have this in the bag even if he doesn't press. Connor emphasizes that Price will walk onto shots.

Veretennikov opened at -325, currently -275; Price opened at +275, currently +235
"I'm picking Veretennikov, but God damn it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Paul picks Nikolay Veretennikov, citing Price's decline in durability and cardio. He notes Veretennikov's power and body work, and Price's poor takedown defense. Paul expects Veretennikov to win by knockout or decision, though the price is high.

"I think Nikolai Rednikov gets him out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Nikolay Veretennikov

The host picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Niko Price. He notes Veretennikov took Michael Morales to a split decision, though he looked iffy against Prado. He thinks Price has lost too many times, moves slow, and despite some power and athleticism, Veretennikov should win a competitive 29-28 decision.

29-28 competitive decision
"I'm going to go with Nikolay Veretennikov getting this one done by 29-28 competitive decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Zane picks Veretennikov despite calling the fight awful. He argues that Niko Price is washed up, slower, and more hittable, and that Veretennikov should win by using his reach and straight punches. Zane notes that Price can't do anything without running into a straight punch, and Veretennikov could also take him down.

Veretennikov opened at -325, currently -275; Price opened at +275, currently +235
"You gotta pick Veretennikov. You have to pick Veretennikov. Niko price can't do anything without running into a straight punch."
LOSS vs Jacobe Smith
Submission R2 4:03 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 34 of 61 55% 46 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 46 of 74 62% 73 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 5:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 19 of 37 51% 23 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 33 of 53 62% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
2 Niko Price 0 15 of 24 62% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 13 of 21 61% 27 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 34 of 61 55% 19 of 43 4 of 7 11 of 11 27 of 49 3 of 4 4 of 8
Jacobe Smith 46 of 74 62% 39 of 66 4 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 41 2 of 2 22 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 19 of 37 51% 10 of 26 3 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 2
Jacobe Smith 33 of 53 62% 27 of 46 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 31 1 of 1 15 of 21
2 Niko Price 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 15 2 of 3 3 of 6
Jacobe Smith 13 of 21 61% 12 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Angelo picks Jacobe Smith because he sees him as a strong prospect with wrestling and finishing ability, while Niko Price is older, has a weak chin, and is being fed to prospects. He notes that Price is fun but past his prime, and Smith's wrestling and pace will be too much. He warns against betting such heavy favorites, saying risking $1400 to make $100 is not worth it.

Angelo mentions that props like 'by finish' or 'first round finish' might offer value, but advises against parlaying minus 1400 favorites.
"Jacob is going to be the pick. The oddsmakers know it. We know it. You can't do anything with these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Big Brady is very confident in Jacobe Smith, describing it as a bad matchup for Niko Price. He notes Price is older, has taken a lot of damage, and is on a decline, while Smith has power and wrestling. Brady believes Smith can knock Price out on the feet or take him down and use vicious ground and pound. He predicts a first-round knockout, comparing it to the Wellmaker vs Moutinho fight.

Smith wins by first round knockout
"I got to go Smith here. I think it's going to be a first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

The host expects Jacobe Smith to flatline Niko Price within the first round and a half, citing Smith's youth and power. He notes the odds are steep at minus 2000, but still predicts an early knockout finish.

early knockout finish, first round and a half, minus 2000 odds mentioned
"I'm expecting Jacobe Smith to go out there and flatline Nico Price within the first round and a half."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

The host calls this a 'big lock of the card', confidently predicting Jacobe Smith to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Smith's impressive KO debut and believes he will repeat that performance against an aging Niko Price who looked geriatric in his last fight. The host notes that Smith's grappling and power will be too much for Price.

first round TKO
"I think Jacob Smith's going to get a very very very quick finish here over Nico Price. In fact, I'm calling a first few minute TKO for Jacob Smith."
LOSS vs Themba Gorimbo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Themba Gorimbo 0 68 of 127 53% 141 of 223 7 of 9 77% 2 0 9:14
Niko Price 0 16 of 53 30% 58 of 100 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Themba Gorimbo 0 32 of 67 47% 45 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:46
Niko Price 0 6 of 17 35% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Themba Gorimbo 0 32 of 53 60% 52 of 76 4 of 5 80% 0 0 1:52
Niko Price 0 9 of 31 29% 19 of 41 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:00
3 Themba Gorimbo 0 4 of 7 57% 44 of 60 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:36
Niko Price 0 1 of 5 20% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Themba Gorimbo 68 of 127 53% 44 of 97 9 of 15 15 of 15 43 of 85 6 of 13 19 of 29
Niko Price 16 of 53 30% 13 of 43 2 of 5 1 of 5 11 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Themba Gorimbo 32 of 67 47% 21 of 55 2 of 3 9 of 9 23 of 47 1 of 4 8 of 16
Niko Price 6 of 17 35% 5 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 2 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Themba Gorimbo 32 of 53 60% 21 of 37 6 of 11 5 of 5 16 of 33 5 of 9 11 of 11
Niko Price 9 of 31 29% 7 of 26 1 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Themba Gorimbo 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 2
Niko Price 1 of 5 20% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gorimbo (-278), Price (+225)

Round 1
One of two entries tonight in the “welterweight action fight club” will play out next, as Gorimbo (13-4, 3-1 UFC) is entering that category while Price (16-7, 2 NC; 8-7, 2 NC UFC) has been a member practically since day one. Any matchup in that section of 170-pound fighters seems to have a greater likelihood—anecdotally, with those numbers not officially tracked right now—of receiving some sort of “of the night” bonus. Both fighters could use it, as Gorimbo is famous for having seven dollars in his bank account while Price has six kids to feed. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the Octagon ranger, and when he calls for them to fight, they touch gloves. Price walks directly into a front kick when he moves to the center of the cage, and he further gets his bell rung by flying punches from Gorimbo. The Zimbabwe native lets his hands fly, and Price has to reset as he gets clipped with a left hand. Gorimbo aims two thudding leg kicks to the front leg of his foe, and when Price tries to counter with a third, Gorimbo dodges and connects with it. Gorimbo further does damage with his calf kick, and he strings together a pair of straight punches with a step-in knee to the belly. Price takes another chopping kick as he slowly advances, and Gorimbo sticks him with a right hand. Price attempts a body kick, and he gets caught with a fastball of a right hand. Price still marches ever onward, through a low kick and a one-two without flinching. Price squares up, opening him up to three punches, a leg kick and a takedown shot. “The Answer” deposits Price on his back, where he starts working with elbows and punches. Price gets stacked up when attempting an armbar, as Gorimbo punches through it to stop it from materializing. Gorimbo steps over to half guard as Price defends with a kimura sweep, and Gorimbo breaks out of it to open Price up with punches and effective elbows. Price looks to sit up, and Gorimbo hops around to take his back and get both hooks in. Price stands up, and Gorimbo hangs on his foe’s back and grips hold of a neck crank. Price responds by slamming Gorimbo on his head, and Gorimbo rides it out to secure a body triangle. From an awkward angle, the two punch one another until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 2
Price starts out the second round marching Gorimbo down, putting a jab and a front kick in his face early. Gorimbo chains punches together in response, with two up top and then a few to the body. Price retaliates with a body kick, and he catches Gorimbo coming in but still eats a few back. Gorimbo winds up with his power calf kick, and he plants the ball of his foot on Price’s sternum. Price punches his way into a clinch, and Gorimbo shakes him up with left hooks and uppercuts up close before tackling Price to the mat. Price turns to his stomach to survive and stand back up, all while eating clubbing left hands. Price gets to his knees and then back upright, and Gorimbo hurriedly mat returns him. Price once more stands, and Gorimbo is imposing his full weight on him, kneeing him in the breadbasket. They trade knees from close proximity, and Gorimbo tries for a trip on the inside but does not land it. Price turns him around as they dirty box with one another, and Price attacks a double that is easily stifled. Price goes after another double, transitioning to a single as Gorimbo’s hips are wide. Gorimbo turns the corner and knees Price in the chest, and they get back upright and split up. Price stalks a potentially tiring Gorimbo down and slugs him in the chops, getting his attention with power punches until they get clinched. Gorimbo responds with a knee on the break, and Price is out of range. Price marches forward to connect with a one-two, and Gorimbo slaps his front leg and then jabs him to the body with a front kick. Price meanders forward, left eye bloodied, and he walks into a takedown shot. Gorimbo pushes through his hips, tosses aside a leglock and starts smacking Price upside the head. Price stands up, and Gorimbo wrenches him down by imposing his body weight on him. As Price defends with a kimura, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 3
The welterweights reach Round 3, tired and beat up but still ready for another five minutes. Gorimbo leads off with two chopping kicks, hits a third and then goes up top with his other leg. Price sees it coming in the nick of time and defends a subsequent shot with a guillotine choke. Gorimbo powers through the choke to slam Price on his back, opening up with ground-and-pound as Price tries to push off the fence with his foot. Gorimbo controls his man while slinging short right hands, keeping Price trapped between the corner of the floor and the wall. Price again tries to push off the fence, this time tugging on the links with his toes. Dean calls him on this, and Price stops. Price explodes to sit up, only for Gorimbo grind him back down while keeping Price’s right leg laced to stop him from escaping. Price kicks his foe off his chest, and Gorimbo stands and backs up. Price throws a hard kick to the calf from his back, and Gorimbo allows him to do this so he can dive in to reclaim top position. Gorimbo draws further blood with slow but methodical strikes, stepping over to half guard on the other side. Price times this guard pass to burst upright with 55 seconds left in the round. Gorimbo cinches his hands around the waist to dump Price to the floor. Price stands up again through sheer force of will, and Gorimbo hangs on from his back and slides off. Gorimbo looks for an unorthodox banana split, Suloev stretch or kneebar, and time expires before he can get anything.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)

The Official Result
Themba Gorimbo def. Niko Price via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Angelo picks Themba Gorimbo, acknowledging that picking against Niko Price is difficult due to his unpredictability. However, he believes Gorimbo is the overall better fighter with a good combination of technical striking, wrestling, and the ability to push forward. He notes that Price can win on any given day but that Gorimbo's skills should prevail.

"I think TBA is just the overall better fighter and I think he gets it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Big Brady picks Themba Gorimbo to win by first-round knockout. He notes Gorimbo is improving rapidly while Price is diminishing, having been knocked out by Robbie Lawler in 30 seconds and looking poor in recent fights. He questions whether Gorimbo will stand and bang or wrestle, but hopes for an exciting finish. He thinks the line is wild at -375 but still picks Gorimbo. He mentions Gorimbo could also control Price on the ground like he did against Brahimaj.

Gorimbo by first-round knockout
"I'll pick thema to win I guess the the question I have is is how is thema going to approach this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Niko Price has looked bad for years and has no way to stop a takedown. He points out that Price's last funky knockout was in 2019 and he has since struggled. Connor believes Gorimbo's wrestling, though not great, is enough to control Price.

"Yeah, like how are you gonna stop somebody from just going out and taking you down? You've never stopped that before"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel is unimpressed with Gorimbo's skills, calling him slow and not a future top-15 guy, but he acknowledges that Price may be too washed to capitalize. He loves Price's ability off his back but is not confident enough to pick him. Daniel decides to pass on betting this fight, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"This is dog or pass... I don't want to plant my flags on a washed up fighter like Nico Price."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

The host is surprised the line is so wide, as Gorimbo is on a three-fight winning streak but not all that good. Price has veteran experience and durability; if he holds up early, Gorimbo will struggle to grind him out. Price has a better gas tank and should pull away late, finishing in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think that eventually leads to a second or third round finish for the big underdog here in Niko Price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo, citing his speed advantage on the feet and Price's suspect chin. He notes that Gorimbo is on a three-fight win streak and is being given 'layups' by the UFC. He expects Gorimbo to win by TKO on the feet, as Price is too slow and doesn't have the grappling to take Gorimbo down.

TKO
"I'm going to go with them gimbo here over ni price just way faster on the feet I'm actually going to say he gets it done by TKO on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Zane thinks Gorimbo can blanket Price with his wrestling, even though Gorimbo's control is poor and he often stalls in ugly positions. He notes that Price has looked washed for years, lacks preventative skills, and has no way to stop takedowns. Zane acknowledges it's not much but believes Gorimbo can tie Price up and slow him down.

"Garimbo I guess yeah, I think them but Garimbo could just go out and blanket him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

WIN vs Alex Morono
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 108 of 224 48% 138 of 259 5 of 5 100% 0 1 3:37
Alex Morono 0 96 of 210 45% 111 of 225 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 16 of 51 31% 21 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:10
Alex Morono 0 34 of 72 47% 40 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Niko Price 0 34 of 65 52% 50 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:04
Alex Morono 0 21 of 43 48% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Niko Price 0 58 of 108 53% 67 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Alex Morono 0 41 of 95 43% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 108 of 224 48% 78 of 181 24 of 33 6 of 10 78 of 182 9 of 19 21 of 23
Alex Morono 96 of 210 45% 74 of 184 13 of 15 9 of 11 91 of 204 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 16 of 51 31% 12 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 1 14 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 2
Alex Morono 34 of 72 47% 26 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 5 32 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Niko Price 34 of 65 52% 22 of 48 8 of 12 4 of 5 16 of 44 3 of 5 15 of 16
Alex Morono 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Niko Price 58 of 108 53% 44 of 88 12 of 16 2 of 4 48 of 91 6 of 12 4 of 5
Alex Morono 41 of 95 43% 29 of 81 8 of 9 4 of 5 39 of 92 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.

"I think morono is just the better fighter I think he's the more technical Striker he certainly is the better Grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.

fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Alex Morono wins by knockout
"I think it's probably is marona going out there and getting The Knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.

"I'm gonna go with the Niko Price direction too... Price has got sickening volume... Morono is not that guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.

"I'm gonna go Nico price here to beat him a second time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.

round 2 knockout
"I think we'll see morono capitalize on that... I think it's ultimately going to be a big shot on the chin that puts Nico price out here so give me Alex morono second round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.

"Everything in my being I know Niko Price is kind of washed but it's like how does Alex Morono lose fights? He gets knocked out... I'm tempted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.

Morono by decision
"I'm going to go with Alex morono here um morono by decision TKO maybe but I'll say decision"
LOSS vs Robbie Lawler
KO (punches) R1 0:38 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Niko Price

Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.

No bet, unsure about finish
"Nico price is going to be the pick here he has had some of the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Robbie Lawler to get it done I'm gonna take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.

Under 2.5 rounds (-155 to -160), Price by KO/TKO
"Nico price should be the favorites minus 260 is is definitely not getting my my money but he will be my pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.

Same odds commentary as Zane; Connor agrees with the betting line.
"I'm not going to pick him either. At this point, the problems are so compounding for Lawler."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.

"I kind of leaned towards Nico besides the youth is what I was talking about these last few fights he's been putting up more output."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Niko Price

James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.

Niko Price wins by KO
"I air on the side that Nico price knocks out Robbie Lawler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me a fight doesn't go to the decision as my favorite prop for this fight favorite prediction for this fight but I'm gonna go with the younger fighter here and Nicole price to get his hand raised by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I gotta go with Nico price and if Robbie was a spring want to knock him out like inside my heart I'd feel happy the bank account not the match"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.

wins by KO in the third round
"we're gonna see Nico price get a KO win in the third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.

Lawler opened at +218, currently +221; Price opened at -252, currently -256. Zane says 'you just got to assume everybody should be betting on Niko Price here.'
"I'm going to pick Niko Price and I'm going to feel terrible about it."
LOSS vs Philip Rowe
TKO (punches) R3 3:26 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 0 110 of 247 44% 150 of 293 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
Niko Price 0 63 of 139 45% 64 of 140 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 87 39% 36 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Niko Price 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 85 40% 46 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Niko Price 0 17 of 40 42% 18 of 41 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:28
3 Philip Rowe 0 42 of 75 56% 68 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Niko Price 0 26 of 46 56% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 110 of 247 44% 66 of 197 16 of 22 28 of 28 88 of 218 14 of 21 8 of 8
Niko Price 63 of 139 45% 49 of 123 7 of 8 7 of 8 57 of 129 6 of 7 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 34 of 87 39% 12 of 63 5 of 7 17 of 17 30 of 80 4 of 7 0 of 0
Niko Price 20 of 53 37% 12 of 44 3 of 3 5 of 6 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Philip Rowe 34 of 85 40% 20 of 68 9 of 12 5 of 5 29 of 77 5 of 8 0 of 0
Niko Price 17 of 40 42% 13 of 35 3 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Philip Rowe 42 of 75 56% 34 of 66 2 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 61 5 of 6 8 of 8
Niko Price 26 of 46 56% 24 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1 23 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.

Probably won't bet; mentions Price's year off and hurricane impact
"Philip Rowe is going to be the pick I'm probably not going to bet on this fight because somebody like Nico is fun is dangerous and can just come out there and just look amazing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.

Rowe wins by KO, round 2
"I like row to win pull off the upset and knock out Nico price in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.

live betting on Rowe after round 1
"I'm more looking towards a live betting option for row and I wouldn't out rule I wouldn't rule out sorry uh switching the pick to Nico price seeing him at weigh-ins hearing some good interviews I could be talked into …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.

"I'll have to pick Nico price as well. Row is the favorite here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.

Rowe by KO
"I'm gonna go with Phil row to come out here and actually knock out the guy we love... cash this Plus 120"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.

Niko Price inside the distance
"I like the -140 price tag on the experienced veteran and that's probably the way that I'll be going for this matchup Nico price inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.

"for the purpose of the program I'm picking Nico price but yeah I mean I've already got like a list of things that I'm considering betting this ain't one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.

Rowe by TKO
"I'm going with Philip bro"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.

"I really have no choice here, but to pick Nico price because things are going to go haywire and I Nico price isn't even the most durable guy in the world, but he's very resilient."
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 65 of 112 58% 83 of 131 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alex Oliveira 0 64 of 116 55% 108 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 16 of 22 72% 34 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:48
2 Niko Price 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
Alex Oliveira 0 14 of 26 53% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Niko Price 0 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Alex Oliveira 0 34 of 68 50% 53 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 65 of 112 58% 31 of 72 17 of 23 17 of 17 56 of 99 2 of 2 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 64 of 116 55% 37 of 83 7 of 11 20 of 22 45 of 93 2 of 2 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 7 of 17 41% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 22 72% 9 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 8
2 Niko Price 19 of 35 54% 9 of 25 4 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 14 of 26 53% 6 of 16 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Niko Price 39 of 60 65% 19 of 34 12 of 18 8 of 8 39 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 34 of 68 50% 22 of 53 6 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

more on Alex Oliveira in monkey knife fight slates
"i am gonna pick oliveira here i assume that is veteran savvy he'll fight a smart fight not succumb to his instincts not get sucked into god knows what sloppy war"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Price inside the distance (KO or submission)
"give me a price give me price to win inside the distance i think he does finish oliveira"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

"minus 165 i got to go with niko price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

fight of the night candidate
"nico's a guy i'd rather lay a dog price on unless it's guaranteed that this is a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Price by KO +150, under 2.5 rounds -145
"I like price here i like price i'm gonna take him by ko as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i would have to go with nico price in this spot even though it's -165"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Price by TKO in round 3
"i'm going with nico price tko in the third round"
Alex Oliveira - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
TKO (elbows) R2 0:38 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 1 50 of 76 65% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Alex Oliveira 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 31 of 50 62% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:22
2 Kevin Holland 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Alex Oliveira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 50 of 76 65% 24 of 48 3 of 5 23 of 23 34 of 52 0 of 1 16 of 23
Alex Oliveira 21 of 44 47% 6 of 28 7 of 8 8 of 8 20 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 31 of 50 62% 7 of 24 3 of 5 21 of 21 30 of 48 0 of 1 1 of 1
Alex Oliveira 19 of 39 48% 6 of 25 6 of 7 7 of 7 18 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 26 73% 17 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 22
Alex Oliveira 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira

Round 1
Many expect that this welterweight scrap on the docket now is a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” candidate, as both Holland (21-7, 1 NC; 8-4, 1 NC UFC) and Oliveira (22-11-1, 2 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) love to put on a show. Both men had no issue making the 171-pound limit, and they appear to be fired up and excited to get after it. Referee Chris Tognoni wrangles them long enough to get them to stand behind their respective black lines, and when the fight begins, they rush together to touch gloves. Holland leads the dance with a low kick that connects and a high kick that whizzes past the head of “Cowboy.” Holland connects with another leg kick, drawing a reaction from Oliveira and a response with one of his own. Holland scores a third low kick to the calf, and he just misses when Oliveira wings a big right hook at him. Holland continues to chip away from the outside, and Oliveira catches him on the way in with a right hand counter that knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet. Holland is able to jump back up to his feet and block a flying knee that soars towards him, and he gets back to poking with calf kicks. Holland lunges forward with a right hand, and Oliveira is right there to return fire with a swiping right hook. The punches from Oliveira make Holland lean off-balance. Holland gets cracked with a right hand as he advances, and when he falls to the ground, he laces his legs up for a leglock. Oliveira is able to step out of danger, and he lifts Holland up and slams him down to the mat. Holland is able to scramble away, and he blasts “Cowboy” in the face with a crisp right hand that puts the Brazilian on rubber legs. Not one to shy away from a brawl, Oliveira swings right back and gets Holland’s respect with a few power shots that make Holland’s rear leg lock up for a second. Both men gather themselves and get back to kickboxing range, where Holland is comfortable working with leg kicks and away from the swinging punches that whiz at him. Oliveira chops down Holland’s lead leg with a kick that is much heavier than the ones Holland are throwing, and Holland does a twirl and comes back out swinging. Holland kicks low, and he has it checked, but it seems to have affected Oliveira as well. Oliveira tries to grab the kick, but when it lands, he throws back at Holland. Holland spins from the kick, and he gets snagged against from the Brazilian. In a ridiculous scramble, Oliveira takes his foe’s back and cinches up a rear-naked choke. Instead of being concerned at all, “Trailblazer” motions to thumbs-up signs from each hand to the camera, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 2
The hands get touched to start off the second round, and Oliveira appears to come out limping. Despite this, Oliveira charges ahead with a low kick, and he gets clipped with a small right hand counter. Holland smells blood, and he races out drop hammers on his wounded opponent. The knees of “Cowboy” give way beneath him and he crumbles to the mat, and Holland can see the finish line and delivers a brutal salvo of punches to end the fight. As Oliveira flails and protects himself from harm, Holland switches to elbows and smashes them in his adversary’s face one after the other. Unleashing the thunder, Holland gives it everything he has to record the finish, and Tognoni jumps in to pull Holland off of a wrecked “Cowboy.” There is no ill will between the two after the furious five-plus minutes of ferocity, and they hug it out to celebrate a hard-fought battle.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Alex Oliveira R2 0:38 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.

"i think kevin holland gets it done in what might be fight of the night"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.

Holland by submission
"i do like kevin hall to win this fight if um the weight cut i think it's gonna go good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.

Parlayed with Colby Covington; Holland by submission at +800 (DraftKings)
"i think you know striking at range kevin holland's got the better boxing here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.

parlayed with Paddy Pimblett for 2 units
"i think alex oliveira shoots that sloppy shot and gets submitted eventually i do think that kevin holland lights him up with big body kicks maybe even drops him with a straight right and and capitalizes on an open neck …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.

Holland wins inside the distance (round 3), sprinkle on round 3 prop
"my prediction here is actually the uh it's gonna be kevin holland inside the distance but i think it's gonna be a little bit later on in this fight probably second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.

Holland by submission (standing guillotine) mentioned as a possibility
"low-key low-key well i got holland that's high key but low-key what's the holland by submission prop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru calls Kevin Holland a lock over Alex Oliveira, citing Oliveira's decreased durability since a grenade attack and his tendency to slow down in fights. He believes Holland's youth, durability, and scrappiness will overwhelm Oliveira, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Oliveira has been chinned easily recently and that Holland's weight cut to welterweight should be manageable.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to call a second round ko for kevin holland over alex oliveira"
LOSS vs Niko Price
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 65 of 112 58% 83 of 131 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alex Oliveira 0 64 of 116 55% 108 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 16 of 22 72% 34 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:48
2 Niko Price 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
Alex Oliveira 0 14 of 26 53% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Niko Price 0 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Alex Oliveira 0 34 of 68 50% 53 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 65 of 112 58% 31 of 72 17 of 23 17 of 17 56 of 99 2 of 2 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 64 of 116 55% 37 of 83 7 of 11 20 of 22 45 of 93 2 of 2 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 7 of 17 41% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 22 72% 9 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 8
2 Niko Price 19 of 35 54% 9 of 25 4 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 14 of 26 53% 6 of 16 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Niko Price 39 of 60 65% 19 of 34 12 of 18 8 of 8 39 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 34 of 68 50% 22 of 53 6 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

more on Alex Oliveira in monkey knife fight slates
"i am gonna pick oliveira here i assume that is veteran savvy he'll fight a smart fight not succumb to his instincts not get sucked into god knows what sloppy war"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Price inside the distance (KO or submission)
"give me a price give me price to win inside the distance i think he does finish oliveira"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

"minus 165 i got to go with niko price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

fight of the night candidate
"nico's a guy i'd rather lay a dog price on unless it's guaranteed that this is a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Price by KO +150, under 2.5 rounds -145
"I like price here i like price i'm gonna take him by ko as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i would have to go with nico price in this spot even though it's -165"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Price by TKO in round 3
"i'm going with nico price tko in the third round"
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:50 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 1 16 of 32 50% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 1 16 of 32 50% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 7 of 12 58% 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 1 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 7 of 12 58% 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 1 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 8 of 11
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Big Brady picks Oliveira to win a close decision as an underdog. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency is a concern, but if the best version shows up, he can mix in takedowns and top control. He thinks the fight should be closer to a pick'em and likes the value on Oliveira. He also mentions Brown's chin is questionable.

Oliveira by decision
"i'm going to take the underdog here in oliveira to win a very very very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody is high on Brown, noting his consistent improvement and physical advantages. He points out Oliveira's lack of motivation and poor recent performances. He expects Brown to use his length and striking to control the fight, and thinks Oliveira will fade if he doesn't get an early finish. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130), live betting on Brown after round 1
"randy brown is considerably bigger um this is a real welterweight that oliveira's and like you know oliveira is coming off of that loss"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel picks Randy Brown, believing his length and improving game will be too much for Alex Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency and that Brown will pull away in the later rounds, possibly getting a finish. He expects the first round to be close.

"i'm gonna go with randy brown to get this done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

I lean Brown here. He has better cardio and technique, and Oliveira is inconsistent. Brown should use his reach and jab to outpoint Oliveira. I like Brown by decision at +225, and the over 1.5 at -225 is also solid. However, Oliveira could surprise with a wild performance, so confidence is not high.

Brown by decision +225
"i do lean brown here though i think he has the better cardio"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing his improvement, length, and reach advantage. He notes Oliveira's distractions (nine kids, eight baby mamas) and declining interest. He expects Brown to use his jab and distance to outbox Oliveira, and thinks Oliveira's best days are behind him. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown after round one.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130), live betting on Brown after round 1
"i'm expecting brown to to roll here minus 145 just almost seems too good to be true"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown by decision. He notes that Oliveira is injury-prone and often breaks toes or ribs during fights, while Brown is more durable. He predicts Oliveira wins the first round but Brown comes back in the second and third, winning 29-28.

"i'm gonna go randy brown though"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:40 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"
WIN vs Peter Sobotta
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 1 45 of 93 48% 48 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Peter Sobotta 0 29 of 67 43% 30 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Peter Sobotta 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Oliveira 1 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Peter Sobotta 0 10 of 17 58% 11 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Alex Oliveira 0 19 of 36 52% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Peter Sobotta 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 45 of 93 48% 19 of 51 16 of 29 10 of 13 37 of 85 7 of 7 1 of 1
Peter Sobotta 29 of 67 43% 13 of 46 7 of 11 9 of 10 29 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 9 of 24 37% 1 of 11 7 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Peter Sobotta 7 of 21 33% 2 of 13 2 of 4 3 of 4 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Oliveira 17 of 33 51% 9 of 17 5 of 11 3 of 5 11 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0
Peter Sobotta 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Oliveira 19 of 36 52% 9 of 23 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1
Peter Sobotta 12 of 29 41% 7 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.

Sobotta by decision
"I'm going to be taking my second underdog of the card in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.

"i'm actually going to take him for the upset uh but i know it could go very wrong early... one back take one full mount uh and the fight might be over shortly after so i'm gonna go with peter …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.

Sobotta by submission in round 3
"i think he's very very skilled and oliver again just being the wild man that he is he's a very beatable fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.

"I'm going to be going with Alex Oliviera here, but I understand that Sabot is a dangerous opponent."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 0 40 of 77 51% 61 of 98 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:31
Max Griffin 0 23 of 50 46% 62 of 96 2 of 3 66% 0 1 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 9 of 24 37% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Max Griffin 0 7 of 16 43% 23 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:38
2 Alex Oliveira 0 23 of 41 56% 24 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:34
Max Griffin 0 12 of 28 42% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Alex Oliveira 0 8 of 12 66% 23 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Max Griffin 0 4 of 6 66% 20 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 40 of 77 51% 21 of 56 11 of 13 8 of 8 35 of 67 3 of 8 2 of 2
Max Griffin 23 of 50 46% 17 of 40 4 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 9 of 24 37% 6 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 7 of 16 43% 6 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Oliveira 23 of 41 56% 9 of 27 6 of 6 8 of 8 23 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Max Griffin 12 of 28 42% 9 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alex Oliveira 8 of 12 66% 6 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 2 of 2
Max Griffin 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
170: Alex Oliveira vs. Max Griffin

Round 1
Opening up the main card is a battle between two welterweights in desperate need of a win as “Cowboy” Oliveira (19-8-1, 2 NC; 9-6, 1 NC UFC) takes on Griffin (15-7, 3-5 UFC) . Drawing the assignment is referee Mark Smith. There is no glove touch, as Griffin comes out firing with a heavy one-two that just misses the mark. Griffin is racing after him, and gets clipped on the way in but does not pull back. “Pain” swings heavily, but does not connect flush, as Oliveira dances away and spins about almost to celebrate that he did not get hit. Oliveira crashes forward and dings him with a right hand before clinching up, and Griffin fights himself free. The two try to paw out their left hands for range, and Oliveira throws a right hand so hard he nearly falls over. The two both wing their punches, and Oliveira sticks out a jab. Griffin takes a one-two, and comes right back with a similar combination but does not score it. The two swing and trade at the same time, and Griffin tags him and cause Oliveira to go flailing with an uppercut. Griffin hits a takedown, and his corner screams at him to back off and do damage. In full guard, Griffin stays heavy while throwing some short punches, and Smith chides Griffin on punching to the back of the head. Griffin passes to half guard, and Oliveira tries to pull himself up the fence so Smith shouts at him to let it go. Griffin stays tight and looks to tie up Oliveira’s arm with his leg, but the Brazilian gets his arm free before interlocking his toes in the fence. Smith again warns him to let go of the cage, and has to slap Oliveira’s toes out. All the while, Griffin slowly works with some elbows and looks at an arm-triangle choke, but with Oliveira against the cage wall, he cannot get leverage to set anything up. As Oliveira springs to his feet, Griffin takes his back, but “Cowboy” rips himself free and the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
Like the first, Griffin practically sprints towards his opponent to land a long jab. Oliveira is ready for it, and catches him before landing two heavy leg kicks that make Griffin’s knee a little wobbly. Oliveira fires out a few more jabs, and Griffin is busted up from these shots with a cut above his right eye towards the bridge of his nose. Oliveira rushes in with a strike, and Griffin times a takedown but the Brazilian halts it. Instead, he turns the position around tries to pull for a single leg takedown, and we can see the blood pouring out of Griffin’s forehead. Smith calls in the doctor to check on the cut, which we can see came from a fierce uppercut. The doctor clears him to continue, and we are back to it. The two men start off with some jabs, and Oliveira pursues the low calf kick that is really irritating Griffin quickly. The two come together and swing, and Oliveira is timing the uppercut but cannot score it. The Brazilian lands an outside and then inside leg kick to the damaged leg, and takes a powerful right hand along the way. The two both come together with huge right hands, and both are clear of the mark with their home run shots. Griffin clinches up, but again Oliveira reverses him. In an attempt to break free, Oliveira pirouettes with a spinning elbow and Griffin is barely able to block it. Griffin shoots in low for a takedown, and Oliveira defends it with a guillotine before pushing him against the fence. After some tense but slow clinch work, “Cowboy” pursues a single but cannot get it, so Griffin breaks free and swings a heavy right hand that is short of the mark. Oliveira stings him with two more right hands, and when Griffin goes after a labored spinning back fist, Oliveira shoots low for one last takedown to seal the round. He does not land it, and the round is over with Griffin bleeding heavily.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Griffin cleared to continue, as we see a separate cut under Griffin’s other eye. Oliveira scores a few long front kicks where he stabs with his toes, and then goes up top with a head kick that is blocked. Griffin tries to close the distance, and Oliveira spins him around to get a takedown. “Pain” stays strong, and spins him around while taking a few elbows to the side and back of his head. Griffin complains, and Smith warns the Brazilian as a cut has now opened on the top of Griffin’s head. This fight could quickly turn into a performance from the Edwin Dewees playbook, and Oliveira separates only to hit a takedown. “Cowboy” lands on top and pursues a choke, before taking full mount, and Griffin is in a bad way as the blood pours into his eye. Oliveira pulls for a straight armlock while on top, and bails on it to end in half guard. Griffin wears a crimson mask and is grimacing as he is not likely able to see, and Oliveira capitalizes with a few short but effective punches on top. The Brazilian once more takes mount, and is starting to unload punches while Griffin tries to blink his eyes clear. Griffin scrambles and manages to reverse the position, and Oliveira falls to his back when he cannot come close to sinking in a guillotine choke. Griffin steps over to half guard and drops some elbows on his man, and Oliveira is holding on for dear life. With 80 seconds to go, Griffin is giving Oliveira his best “You don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression as he bleeds down on his opponent without getting many strikes off. Griffin grinds and starts to pour it on with some very short elbows and punches to try to steal the round. The judges have their hands full in this round, as Griffin ends the fight on top. What a bloody mess of a battle, but it sure was fun.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)

The Official Result
Alex Oliveira def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.

Daniel says the line might be too low because in their primes Oliveira would have put Griffin down quickly. He picks Oliveira by TKO finish in the first round.
"I'm gonna go Alex cowboy by TKO finish in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.

"I think that Oliveira is gonna have a little bit more success on the feet and landing the bigger shots here... I'll go with Oliveira by second-round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Max Griffin

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.

"I'm going with max Griffin Oliveira is gonna have success early he's maybe gonna drop max Griffin and put him in some trouble max Griffin's gonna come back and grind out a decision win"
LOSS vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 31 of 84 36% 64 of 122 1 of 4 25% 0 1 5:29
Alex Oliveira 0 18 of 47 38% 31 of 65 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 7 of 29 24% 7 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:34
Alex Oliveira 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 29 37% 34 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:59
Alex Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 9 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:56
Alex Oliveira 0 0 of 2 0% 10 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 31 of 84 36% 19 of 64 5 of 12 7 of 8 9 of 45 11 of 18 11 of 21
Alex Oliveira 18 of 47 38% 14 of 40 0 of 2 4 of 5 13 of 36 1 of 3 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 7 of 29 24% 0 of 18 3 of 7 4 of 4 4 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 12 of 32 37% 9 of 27 0 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 24 0 of 0 4 of 8
2 Nicolas Dalby 11 of 29 37% 7 of 21 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 14 8 of 15 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Nicolas Dalby 13 of 26 50% 12 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 20
Alex Oliveira 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alex Oliveira vs. Nicolas Dalby

Round 1
Going back to welterweight, the always-exciting Oliveira (19-7-1, 2 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) tries to spoil the homecoming of Denmark's Dalby (17-3-1, 1 NC; 1-2-1 UFC). In his walk to the cage, Dalby is accompanied by the Denmark National Anthem, as performed by his fiancée Dzifa Adjo Akpalu. The referee taking charge of the cage is Rebin Saber. Oliveira opens up with a low leg kick, and then charges forward with a slew of punches that all fall short. The crowd is electric for their home country fighter, who scores a few slapping leg kicks while trying to find his range on the elusive Brazilian. Dalby leaps through the air with a knee, and as he falls shy of the target, Oliveira tries to counter on the way down, but he too misses. Dalby scores an inside leg kick, and Oliveira replies with one that Dalby checks. "Cowboy" whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, and Dalby responds with a spinning back kick that is nowhere near the mark. Dalby chases Oliveira down with a few punches, punctuated by a head kick that does not land flush. The Dane again blitzes forward, partially connecting with a right hand while avoiding the hard counter from the Brazilian. As Oliveira throws a big right over the top, Dalby shoots in for a takedown, but Oliveira stuffs it. Dalby presses Oliveira against the fence and tries to trip his opponent down, but Oliveira keeps his balance and stays upright, although his back is against the cage. Unsuccessful on another trip, it is actually Oliveira who gets the fight down, scooping the legs of Dalby while attempting to take the back. Returning to full guard, Oliveira drops down a loud right hand and little more, while Dalby tries to set up a triangle. Oliveira shucks off the attempt and lands in half guard, before Dalby reverses position and gets Oliveira down. The crowd is so loud cheering for Dalby that we cannot hear the horn sounding, but the round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
Oliveira charges forward to begin the round, but does not successfully land on his first combination. Dalby plants a front kick to the chest of his adversary, and unfortunately Oliveira takes an eye poke and makes the referee stop the action. The fight resumes after a very short break, and the two men trade leg kicks before slamming hooks on each other's chins. In the flurry, Dalby floats up a head kick that blasts Oliveira on the side of the head, causing the Brazilian to clinch up. This does not prove to his advantage, as Dalby circles around and scoops the legs from underneath his opponent, with Dalby landing on top to the delight of the crowd. Quickly passing to half guard, Dalby drops down a few short elbows and punches to frustrating effect, so Oliveira tries to turn out of the position. Dalby lands a few punches that might be close to the back of his opponent's head, and then hammers down a couple elbows that are quite effective. Dalby pounds Oliveira with several right hands until the Brazilian has had enough, and Oliveira powers out of the position to stand up. Dalby leans heavy against the fence, and he has successfully bloodied the nose of "Cowboy." On the break, Oliveira tries to spin with a back elbow, but Dalby dodges it and comes on strong, landing punch after punch while Oliveira turtles up. With his opponent possibly playing possum, Dalby stays patient and continues to land on Oliveira. The Brazilian falls to the canvas, and in a scramble Oliveira briefly takes position, but he falls off the back and Dalby ends up on top. Oliveira lands an illegal upkick, causing Saber to pause the action and admonish Oliveira, and stands them back up. With seconds remaining, Oliveira cracks Dalby with a left hand, but Dalby walks it off and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Oliveira's corner implores their fighter to "believe in yourself," causing Oliveira to smile as the final round begins. Dalby just misses with a head kick, causing the crowd to loudly gasp. Dalby shoots in for a double leg takedown and cannot land it, so Oliveira fishes for a guillotine choke. Unable to secure it, the Brazilian bails on it and spins Dalby against the fence. Oliveira tries to kick out the leg of his opponent, and lifts Dalby up and throws him to the cage floor. In side control, Oliveira throws a few knees to the body and grinds his elbow on the Dane's face. Dalby retains half guard, and is looking to sweep the Brazilian, but Oliveira stays strong and hammers down with several punches before the referee inexplicably stands them up. Not wanting to stay on the feet, Oliveira leaps into a double leg takedown, and scores it to drag Dalby back down. "Lokomotivo" rolls out and ends up on top, before taking full mount, and the crowd is deafening in support of their fighter. Dalby postures up to rain down punches and elbows, and then looks to set up an arm-triangle choke before giving it up to keep his strikes going. Dalby sits back up and smashes a few huge elbows to punctuate the fight, and the crowd is elated at Dalby's performance as the bout concludes. The two men embrace and raise their arms in the air after an exciting battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
LOSS vs Mike Perry
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 48 of 137 35% 50 of 139 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
Alex Oliveira 0 65 of 110 59% 75 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 17 of 48 35% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Alex Oliveira 0 20 of 29 68% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Mike Perry 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Alex Oliveira 0 21 of 36 58% 30 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
3 Mike Perry 0 15 of 55 27% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 48 of 137 35% 30 of 110 7 of 16 11 of 11 42 of 125 6 of 11 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 65 of 110 59% 48 of 90 6 of 8 11 of 12 32 of 72 18 of 19 15 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 17 of 48 35% 11 of 37 4 of 9 2 of 2 14 of 42 3 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 20 of 29 68% 13 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 22 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 16 of 34 47% 10 of 27 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 21 of 36 58% 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 14 of 18
3 Mike Perry 15 of 55 27% 9 of 46 1 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 24 of 45 53% 18 of 37 2 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 34 9 of 10 1 of 1
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

more on Alex Oliveira in monkey knife fight slates
"i am gonna pick oliveira here i assume that is veteran savvy he'll fight a smart fight not succumb to his instincts not get sucked into god knows what sloppy war"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Price inside the distance (KO or submission)
"give me a price give me price to win inside the distance i think he does finish oliveira"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

"minus 165 i got to go with niko price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

fight of the night candidate
"nico's a guy i'd rather lay a dog price on unless it's guaranteed that this is a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Price by KO +150, under 2.5 rounds -145
"I like price here i like price i'm gonna take him by ko as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i would have to go with nico price in this spot even though it's -165"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Price by TKO in round 3
"i'm going with nico price tko in the third round"