UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020 · Catchweight (195 lb) · Completed
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Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 3"
Reach 73"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Deron Winn
4.55 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
6.21 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
4.28 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Antônio Arroyo
2.82 SLpM
66.0% Str. Acc.
2.02 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
41.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Deron Winn - Fight History
LOSS vs Phil Hawes
TKO (elbows) R2 4:25 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 1 118 of 175 67% 126 of 191 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Deron Winn 0 32 of 111 28% 34 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 1 55 of 87 63% 56 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Deron Winn 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Phil Hawes 0 63 of 88 71% 70 of 103 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:43
Deron Winn 0 15 of 67 22% 17 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 118 of 175 67% 99 of 152 17 of 21 2 of 2 89 of 138 14 of 18 15 of 19
Deron Winn 32 of 111 28% 24 of 101 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 100 3 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 55 of 87 63% 43 of 71 10 of 14 2 of 2 49 of 77 3 of 6 3 of 4
Deron Winn 17 of 44 38% 13 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Phil Hawes 63 of 88 71% 56 of 81 7 of 7 0 of 0 40 of 61 11 of 12 12 of 15
Deron Winn 15 of 67 22% 11 of 61 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 59 1 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes despite acknowledging Deron Winn's superior offensive wrestling stats (almost 5 takedowns per fight, 52% accuracy vs Hawes' 33%). He compares it to the Brendan Allen vs Jacob Malkoun fight, where the more talented fighter (Hawes) can lose if he doesn't initiate takedowns first. He notes Hawes is the better mixed martial artist but Winn has a clear path if he shoots first.

"i am gonna pick phil hawes here because he is the better mixed martial artist but there is a clear path for duron win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio, but believes Hawes is much bigger with a six-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage, and has 100% takedown defense to stuff Winn's wrestling. He expects Hawes to knock out Winn early, likely in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think phil haas finishes the wrong win in that very first round so phil has first round knockout to kick off the banger of a card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Cody picks Hawes but is cautious due to Hawes' chin and cardio. He thinks Hawes' striking and power are advantages, and Winn's weight cuts and cardio issues are problematic. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see Winn's condition.

"i think he's able to maybe get the job done down the stretch"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes confidently, stating Hawes has everything except a chin: D1 wrestling, one-punch power, and physicality. He believes Deron Winn is too short (5'4") and will struggle to take Hawes down. Levi thinks Hawes wins everywhere unless he gets knocked out, which is possible given his suspect chin. He expects Hawes to dominate and win, possibly by knockout.

Hawes -270; expects domination; Winn's only chance is a puncher's chance
"phil haas don't get knocked out and you win this fight literally everywhere it goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul leans toward Hawes but is not confident. He notes both fighters are untrustworthy and the fight could be ugly. He thinks Hawes' reach and power are key, but Winn's wrestling could be a factor if he makes weight.

"i don't know i i would say both guys are not trustworthy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes despite worrying about his weak chin, as seen in the Chris Curtis fight. He believes Hawes is much bigger and stronger than Deron Winn, who is too small for middleweight. He predicts Hawes will neutralize Winn's wrestling and land a knockout via a knee to the face in the second round.

ko in second round
"i'm going to be going with phil hawes here i worry... i do worry about his chin... phil gets a ko with a knee to the face in the second round"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Deron Winn 0 20 of 38 52% 64 of 89 12 of 16 75% 0 0 9:29
Antônio Arroyo 0 45 of 62 72% 70 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Deron Winn 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 15 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:21
Antônio Arroyo 0 26 of 30 86% 33 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
2 Deron Winn 0 6 of 12 50% 30 of 39 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:41
Antônio Arroyo 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Deron Winn 0 5 of 11 45% 25 of 35 4 of 4 100% 0 0 3:27
Antônio Arroyo 0 10 of 18 55% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Deron Winn 20 of 38 52% 10 of 26 5 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 1
Antônio Arroyo 45 of 62 72% 29 of 45 11 of 12 5 of 5 43 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Deron Winn 9 of 15 60% 4 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Arroyo 26 of 30 86% 19 of 23 4 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Deron Winn 6 of 12 50% 3 of 8 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 1
Antônio Arroyo 9 of 14 64% 5 of 9 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Deron Winn 5 of 11 45% 3 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Arroyo 10 of 18 55% 5 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antônio Arroyo

Big Brady picks Antônio Arroyo over Deron Winn, citing Arroyo's size advantage (9 inches taller, 3.5 inch reach) and the catchweight at 195 lbs favoring him. He notes Arroyo's solid jiu-jitsu and striking (leg kicks, body kicks), while Winn has been unimpressive in the UFC and may struggle with the size disadvantage. Brady predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna pick him to win by first round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antônio Arroyo

The host leans Arroyo due to his size and striking advantage, believing his leg kicks and range will be too much for the smaller Winn. He notes Winn's cardio issues and struggles against larger opponents. He predicts a decision win for Arroyo.

"the lean here is antonio hoyo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Deron Winn

The Guru picks Deron Winn but is undecided. He believes Arroyo has poor cardio and that Winn can outlast him in the first two rounds. He notes Winn's wrestling and that Arroyo hasn't shown finishing ability. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Winn, with Arroyo possibly winning the third round.

"i think the romwin gets it done... i'll say bye decision 29 28 i think arroyo win will win the third round but the romwin is going to have enough in his tank in the first two rounds to get …"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gerald Meerschaert 1 86 of 187 45% 86 of 188 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Deron Winn 0 53 of 111 47% 53 of 111 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gerald Meerschaert 0 24 of 63 38% 24 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Deron Winn 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
2 Gerald Meerschaert 0 50 of 82 60% 50 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Deron Winn 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Gerald Meerschaert 1 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Deron Winn 0 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gerald Meerschaert 86 of 187 45% 66 of 166 20 of 21 0 of 0 81 of 177 5 of 10 0 of 0
Deron Winn 53 of 111 47% 37 of 93 11 of 13 5 of 5 47 of 103 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gerald Meerschaert 24 of 63 38% 21 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 0 24 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
Deron Winn 22 of 45 48% 17 of 40 4 of 4 1 of 1 18 of 41 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Gerald Meerschaert 50 of 82 60% 37 of 68 13 of 14 0 of 0 50 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Deron Winn 17 of 43 39% 10 of 34 4 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gerald Meerschaert 12 of 42 28% 8 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 33 5 of 9 0 of 0
Deron Winn 14 of 23 60% 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 20 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
185: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Deron Winn

Round 1
Opening up the ESPN prelims -- they are also on ESPN+ and were slightly delayed due to the UNC-Duke basketball game -- is a middleweight affair as Roufusport product Meerschaert (30-12, 5-4 UFC) tries to hand Winn (6-1, 1-1 UFC) his second straight defeat after Winn started his career at 6-0. There is no nonsense to be found in the cage, as referee Keith Peterson will make sure of that. Winn tries to jab his way in and eats a body kick and then a left hand. Meerschaert throws a leg kick, but it lands loudly on the peninsula south of the Equator and we have an early pause in the action. After a break of around a minute, Winn is good to go, and starts the fight back up and eats a few punches on the way forward. Meerschaert goes low with a kick, and takes a huge left hand on the chin. “GM3” takes it like a champ and closes the distance, where Winn scoops him up and puts him down. Instead of diving in after him, Winn backs off to let him stand. When Meerschaert gets to his feet, Winn starts winging heavy punches, backing Meerschaert up against the fence. Meerschaert survives the assault and fires a solid body kick, before taking a leg kick from the shorter fighter. Meerschaert connects with a left right down the pipe, and tries to follow it with a looping right hand but Winn darts out of the way. Winn blows the hair back of his opponent with a surprising head kick, and then dings him to the midsection with a body kick. Winn is loading up on his punches, and connects on a few more including a fierce left hook. When Winn tries to crowd him, Meerschaert sneaks a knee up the middle that stops Winn from advancing for a moment. Winn regathers himself and stings Meerschaert with a few hefty punches, but “GM3” takes them without much concern. Meerschaert connects with a stiff one-two, and Winn stands straight up and counters with a left as if he had not been punched at all. Winn lands a right hand, and then catches Meerschaert with a left hand that has Meerschaert blinking and wiping his eye. There is some damage beneath that right eye of Meerschaert, but he is undeterred as he ends the round with a looping right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Winn
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Winn
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Winn

Round 2
Meerschaert starts off with a jab, and then chains together a one-two before landing one more. Winn tries to kick low, but his best punch in the exchange is a stiff left. Meerschaert aims to the body with another kick, and steps back as if to avoid a counterpunch, but there is none to come. Meerschaert throws two hooks, and Winn digs to the body before throwing a right to the head. To try to keep Winn at bay, Meerschaert sticks out his jab, and Winn closes the distance with a looping left hook that barely misses. Winn is content to land the counter left and an occasional power jab, but digs to the body with a punch. Meerschaert is not outshined by that strike, as he lands a thudding body kick. Meerschaert has started to get his range, as he lands a series of left hands and right jabs. Winn goes after the lead leg with a kick, but Meerschaert sticks him with his lefts. Winn tries to take the fight down, but Meerschaert gets to his knee and then stands up as Winn fires a high kick at him. Meerschaert triples up the jab and follows it with a left hand, and Winn shrugs it off as he also absorbs a heavy body kick. Winn fires a successful low kick, but his two leaping hooks are well off the mark as Meerschaert is halfway across the cage by the time Winn gets to him. They land heavy jabs, and Meerschaert targets the body as if he were Stipe Miocic repeatedly aiming for Daniel Cormier’s midsection. He lands another, and Winn winces. The body is hurt for Winn, so Meerschaert targets it with a kick and then another two punches. Winn loads up on a huge right hand and lands it, but Meerschaert is undaunted as he kicks the body and then tries to bring up a knee. The round ends with one more thumping punch to the torso by Meerschaert.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert

Round 3
Meerschaert commences the last round with a jab, and Winn reaches with a body kick that barely lands with his toes. Meerschaert puts together a left hand, followed by one to the body. He targets the body once more, and the strike has seemed to land at will for him. Winn loads up with a massive right hand, and Meerschaert’s knees buckle for a moment as we see a cut on the left eye of Meerschaert. “GM3” circles out of danger and gets his left back from beneath him, but Winn is swinging for the fences with another massive right hand -- it is short. Meerschaert sticks him with a jab, and a subsequent left hook hurts Winn. The punches continue to mount for Meerschaert, and Winn stumbles across the cage. As Meerschaert pours it on, Winn falls over, so Meerschaert hunts for a guillotine choke. While Winn defends the choke, Meerschaert sees an opening and circles around to take Winn’s back.
In no time at all, Meerschaert seeks out a rear-naked choke. Winn defends it by trying to yank the arm away, but the choke that almost appears to be a neck crank is too tight. Winn can resist no further and taps, and thereby suffers the first stoppage loss of his career.
This is a huge win for "GM3," and he praises his opponent in his post-fight interview for "bringing out the best in me."

The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Deron Winn R3 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Deron Winn

Daniel picks Deron Winn to win a decision, citing his power, takedowns, and boxing. He notes that Winn needs to be careful of Meerschaert's submissions and body kicks, especially in later rounds. He believes Winn will come out hard, win the first round, and edge out a 29-28 decision if he doesn't get caught.

Daniel mentions that Winn missed weight for his last fight and wants to see if he makes weight this weekend. He picks Winn by decision 29-28.
"I'm gonna pick him for a decision win 29-28."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Meerschaert has a massive size and reach advantage (77.5 vs 71 inches). Winn's wrestling is his only path, but Meerschaert has submissions from all positions. If Winn doesn't get a first-round KO, Meerschaert will submit him, likely in the third round. The host likes the plus money and plans a 1-unit bet.

Bet 1 unit at +125. Win by submission, third round.
"I like the plus 125 on him... I think he gets a submission I'm going to say third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

The MMA Guru picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his experience and size advantage over Deron Winn, who he believes is not big enough for middleweight and lacks KO power or wrestling dominance. He notes Meerschaert's recent close fights (loss to Kevin Holland, win over Trevin Giles) could have gone his way, and he expects Meerschaert to use knees up the middle to counter Winn's forward pressure and win by third-round TKO.

third round TKO
"I think Gerald mere shots got this one in the bag he's very experienced he's very talented as well and I like him he seems to be putting a finish somebody's young up-and-comers recently"
LOSS vs Darren Stewart
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Stewart 0 29 of 53 54% 66 of 98 6 of 15 40% 0 1 8:04
Deron Winn 0 57 of 119 47% 77 of 140 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Stewart 0 12 of 12 100% 35 of 38 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:15
Deron Winn 0 14 of 20 70% 31 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Darren Stewart 0 7 of 16 43% 10 of 20 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:15
Deron Winn 0 21 of 44 47% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Darren Stewart 0 10 of 25 40% 21 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:34
Deron Winn 0 22 of 55 40% 23 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Stewart 29 of 53 54% 25 of 49 1 of 1 3 of 3 11 of 31 7 of 11 11 of 11
Deron Winn 57 of 119 47% 54 of 115 3 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 88 14 of 17 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Stewart 12 of 12 100% 9 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 9
Deron Winn 14 of 20 70% 13 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 6 of 9 6 of 7
2 Darren Stewart 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 5 of 8 1 of 1
Deron Winn 21 of 44 47% 19 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 36 8 of 8 0 of 0
3 Darren Stewart 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1
Deron Winn 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0 16 of 48 0 of 0 6 of 7
WIN vs Eric Spicely
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Korean Zombie · Jun 22, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Deron Winn 0 169 of 367 46% 171 of 369 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Eric Spicely 0 108 of 224 48% 108 of 224 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Deron Winn 0 37 of 89 41% 38 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Eric Spicely 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Deron Winn 0 77 of 160 48% 77 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Eric Spicely 0 37 of 70 52% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Deron Winn 0 55 of 118 46% 56 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Eric Spicely 0 46 of 93 49% 46 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Deron Winn 169 of 367 46% 125 of 316 39 of 46 5 of 5 137 of 322 32 of 45 0 of 0
Eric Spicely 108 of 224 48% 90 of 206 17 of 17 1 of 1 74 of 186 34 of 38 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Deron Winn 37 of 89 41% 24 of 75 11 of 12 2 of 2 33 of 83 4 of 6 0 of 0
Eric Spicely 25 of 61 40% 20 of 56 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 52 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Deron Winn 77 of 160 48% 56 of 134 21 of 26 0 of 0 59 of 137 18 of 23 0 of 0
Eric Spicely 37 of 70 52% 31 of 64 5 of 5 1 of 1 26 of 57 11 of 13 0 of 0
3 Deron Winn 55 of 118 46% 45 of 107 7 of 8 3 of 3 45 of 102 10 of 16 0 of 0
Eric Spicely 46 of 93 49% 39 of 86 7 of 7 0 of 0 32 of 77 14 of 16 0 of 0
Antônio Arroyo - Fight History
LOSS vs Joaquin Buckley
KO (punches) R3 2:26 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquin Buckley 1 41 of 102 40% 45 of 107 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:18
Antônio Arroyo 0 21 of 46 45% 30 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquin Buckley 0 15 of 44 34% 15 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
Antônio Arroyo 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Joaquin Buckley 0 12 of 31 38% 15 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
Antônio Arroyo 0 10 of 18 55% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Joaquin Buckley 1 14 of 27 51% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Antônio Arroyo 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquin Buckley 41 of 102 40% 12 of 59 12 of 22 17 of 21 34 of 95 2 of 2 5 of 5
Antônio Arroyo 21 of 46 45% 4 of 22 10 of 17 7 of 7 21 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquin Buckley 15 of 44 34% 2 of 24 5 of 11 8 of 9 13 of 42 1 of 1 1 of 1
Antônio Arroyo 6 of 18 33% 1 of 10 3 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Joaquin Buckley 12 of 31 38% 2 of 17 3 of 6 7 of 8 11 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Antônio Arroyo 10 of 18 55% 1 of 7 4 of 6 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joaquin Buckley 14 of 27 51% 8 of 18 4 of 5 2 of 4 10 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 4
Antônio Arroyo 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Antonio Arroyo vs. Joaquin Buckley

Round 1
The main card opener should begin with a bang, as the UFC puts the win-or-lose highlight-reel creator Buckley (12-4, 2-2 UFC) against durable Brazilian Arroyo (9-4, 0-2 UFC). All of Buckley’s stoppage wins have come by knockout, while Arroyo has never been stopped with strikes. On the other hand, Arroyo has recorded his last few finishes by submission, and Buckley has never been tapped. Anything could happen, and referee Mark Smith has his head on a swivel for the middleweight action. They do not touch gloves, and Buckley hops forward and sweeps with a low kick that comes up short. A subsequent kick scores, and he tries to plant a side kick to the midsection but Arroyo is well out of the way. The Brazilian spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Buckley sees it coming and gets out of the way. Both men swing and miss with powerful strikes, until Buckley lands kicks on the in and outside of his foe’s leg. Arroyo lands a straight right hand that sends “New Mansa” flying back to the cage, but it appears to have been a stumble and not from the damaging blow. Buckley comes back with a head kick, and they both miss with head kicks that would separate their heads from their respective shoulders. Buckley ducks square into a front kick as he unleashes a right hand, but it is Arroyo that falls to his back after delivering the blow. The Brazilian uses an upkick to back Buckley away, and he gets back to his feet. The power strikes are inaccurate towards one another, and an inside leg kick from Buckley slaps into Arroyo’s cup. Arroyo centers himself after 30 seconds, and the fight resumes as they touch hands. Arroyo goes after a low kick and then follows it with a high kick, and Buckley absorbs some of it and wears it well. “New Mansa” lets loose with a head kick that is at least a foot off the mark, but his inside calf kick connects cleanly. Arroyo steps in with a side kick to the knee, leading Buckley to respond with a question mark kick. Arroyo times an advancing Buckley to sit down on a high kick that nails Buckley in the chest. Buckley tries to get off a flying knee, but midair, Arroyo pushes him back. Buckley goes after a kick, and he falls over as he misses. Arroyo tries to get on top and work him over, but Buckley springs back to his feet and blocks a head kick that comes right after. The American suddenly changes levels, drags Arroyo down to a knee, but cannot keep him there before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arroyo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Arroyo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Arroyo

Round 2
Buckley comes out of his corner charging, but all he comes up with is a leg kick. Arroyo pays him one back, so Buckley springs to action with one more. Buckley strides ahead with a pair of jabs to the longer man, and he flings a head kick that is easily blocked. The middleweights go tit-for-tat with leg kicks, and their head kicks are either protected or avoided entirely. Buckley turns his hips into an inside leg kick, causing a momentary grimace on the face of the Brazilian as his thigh turns a brilliant shade of red. As Arroyo tries to back off, he goes for a back kick, and the kick clacks into Buckley’s cup. Buckley does not want to slow down, so he waves the foul off and continues pushing forward with short combinations. One salvo of strikes leads them to clinch up, and Arroyo backs him off with a knee to the sternum. Arroyo keeps his hands down and he lands a leg kick, following it up with a stiff jab as his hands go back to his waist. His feints have Buckley jumping away from him, and Buckley finally bites down to attack and is forced to block a high kick. Buckley tries to launch one back at him, but when it comes up hitting air, he whacks the lead leg. Buckley advances, and Arroyo times a perfect flying knee that collides directly into his chin. “New Mansa” eats it like St. Louis barbeque and presses in to clinch, but nothing can come from it. Buckley backs off as Arroyo stands, seemingly bored, in the center of the cage. The round ends as Arroyo goes for a jumping switch kick, only to pull it back before it connects so that it does not land after the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arroyo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Arroyo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Arroyo

Round 3
Arroyo offers a touch of gloves, but Buckley is not interested in that. Instead, he chops down the inside thigh of his opponent, and Arroyo nearly falls over reaching after him with something. Buckley steps in with a head kick, but he cannot get it high enough to land where he intends. Buckley fires a heavy leg kick, and it gets checked as he takes a funny step. Suddenly, Buckley shoots in for a takedown, and Arroyo stuffs it and circles around to take his back. Buckley explodes back to his feet and lands a right hand, and Arroyo backs him off with a low kick. As a hematoma forms around his right temple, Buckley blitzes forward with looping right hooks, and a sharper, short left hand surprises “New Mansa.” The American continues to attack, keeping Arroyo on his heels and forced to defend.
Buckley wings a right hand that goes around the side of Arroyo’s head, hurting him, and an uppercut practically lifts Arroyo off the ground before sending him face-down to the ground. Buckley knows this is his moment, so with everything he has left, he leaps down and pummels Arroyo with right hammerfists.
The sledgehammers continue to lay waste to Arroyo until he goes limp with his hands at his sides. Smith recognizes that the Brazilian is out, and he rushes in to stop the fight. Very possibly down on the scorecards, Buckley scores yet another fantastic knockout, doing so against an opponent that had never before been knocked out.

The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Antonio Arroyo R3 2:26 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley confidently. He likes Buckley's power and pressure against the taller, taekwondo-based Arroyo. He thinks Buckley will work the body and land big shots, and that Arroyo's bouncy style won't keep Buckley at range. He considers a bet on Buckley inside the distance.

Inside the distance (considering)
"i have buckley winning this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, citing Antônio Arroyo's terrible cardio and takedown defense. He notes Arroyo is good for only about three minutes before gassing, and Buckley can survive the first round and take over. He predicts a second-round knockout after Arroyo gasses.

second round knockout
"i'll take buckley to win by second round knockout after antonia ohio does gas out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, noting his power and that Arroyo has poor cardio and was exhausted in his last fight. He believes Buckley's takedown defense will hold up and that Arroyo is not a threat on the feet. Cody acknowledges Buckley's questionable chin but thinks Arroyo lacks the power to exploit it.

"i gotta go with buckley is he as trustworthy as he once was maybe not but i'll give him a pass in the dicharico fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Antônio Arroyo

Daniel Levi picks Antônio Arroyo for the upset. He argues that Buckley is a solid brawler but not worth laying -200 on. He says Arroyo's first two UFC fights were against a jiu-jitsu ace (Andre Muniz) and a credentialed wrestler (Daron Winn), so he shouldn't be judged harshly. He thinks Arroyo's gas tank won't be as big an issue here because the fight will be more striking-based, and Arroyo's length and kicks pose problems for the shorter Buckley. He calls it a closer fight than the line indicates.

upset pick; might give as a free bet
"i see this being a closer fight than the line indicates and honestly i'ma come out here and pick antonio ahoyo for the upset and you might even see me giving that out as a free bet here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Preet picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's pressure and power will overwhelm Arroyo, who has a poor gas tank and questionable chin. He expects Buckley to find a knockout later in the fight and likes Buckley by KO at +100 and round 3 at +850.

Joaquin Buckley by KO +100, Buckley round 3 +850
"I do like buckley I do like buckley by ko as well I do think he's going to eventually find that gin"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Paul leans toward Buckley but is wary of his durability issues. He notes that Arroyo hasn't shown much and that Buckley has power. Paul is not betting this fight due to concerns about Buckley's chin.

"my pick would be buckley but i am worried about... durability issues here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley by first-round KO, despite skepticism about Buckley's overall skill. He notes Arroyo's low hands and poor cardio, predicting Buckley will land a big shot over the top. He mentions Buckley's explosivity and reach advantage.

first round KO
"buckley by first round ko arroyo is just so technically unsound"
LOSS vs Deron Winn
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Deron Winn 0 20 of 38 52% 64 of 89 12 of 16 75% 0 0 9:29
Antônio Arroyo 0 45 of 62 72% 70 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Deron Winn 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 15 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:21
Antônio Arroyo 0 26 of 30 86% 33 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
2 Deron Winn 0 6 of 12 50% 30 of 39 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:41
Antônio Arroyo 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Deron Winn 0 5 of 11 45% 25 of 35 4 of 4 100% 0 0 3:27
Antônio Arroyo 0 10 of 18 55% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Deron Winn 20 of 38 52% 10 of 26 5 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 1
Antônio Arroyo 45 of 62 72% 29 of 45 11 of 12 5 of 5 43 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Deron Winn 9 of 15 60% 4 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Arroyo 26 of 30 86% 19 of 23 4 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Deron Winn 6 of 12 50% 3 of 8 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 1
Antônio Arroyo 9 of 14 64% 5 of 9 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Deron Winn 5 of 11 45% 3 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Arroyo 10 of 18 55% 5 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antônio Arroyo

Big Brady picks Antônio Arroyo over Deron Winn, citing Arroyo's size advantage (9 inches taller, 3.5 inch reach) and the catchweight at 195 lbs favoring him. He notes Arroyo's solid jiu-jitsu and striking (leg kicks, body kicks), while Winn has been unimpressive in the UFC and may struggle with the size disadvantage. Brady predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna pick him to win by first round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antônio Arroyo

The host leans Arroyo due to his size and striking advantage, believing his leg kicks and range will be too much for the smaller Winn. He notes Winn's cardio issues and struggles against larger opponents. He predicts a decision win for Arroyo.

"the lean here is antonio hoyo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Deron Winn

The Guru picks Deron Winn but is undecided. He believes Arroyo has poor cardio and that Winn can outlast him in the first two rounds. He notes Winn's wrestling and that Arroyo hasn't shown finishing ability. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Winn, with Arroyo possibly winning the third round.

"i think the romwin gets it done... i'll say bye decision 29 28 i think arroyo win will win the third round but the romwin is going to have enough in his tank in the first two rounds to get …"
LOSS vs André Muniz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
André Muniz 0 29 of 47 61% 47 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 1 5:02
Antônio Arroyo 0 22 of 42 52% 85 of 128 3 of 7 42% 2 0 5:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 André Muniz 0 16 of 26 61% 17 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:18
Antônio Arroyo 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 33 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:47
2 André Muniz 0 8 of 13 61% 16 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Antônio Arroyo 0 7 of 14 50% 23 of 45 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:12
3 André Muniz 0 5 of 8 62% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:47
Antônio Arroyo 0 2 of 3 66% 42 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
André Muniz 29 of 47 61% 20 of 35 5 of 7 4 of 5 21 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 11
Antônio Arroyo 22 of 42 52% 12 of 30 8 of 10 2 of 2 20 of 40 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 André Muniz 16 of 26 61% 10 of 18 3 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Arroyo 13 of 25 52% 8 of 19 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 André Muniz 8 of 13 61% 6 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 5
Antônio Arroyo 7 of 14 50% 4 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 André Muniz 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
Antônio Arroyo 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antônio Arroyo

Big Brady picks Antônio Arroyo over Deron Winn, citing Arroyo's size advantage (9 inches taller, 3.5 inch reach) and the catchweight at 195 lbs favoring him. He notes Arroyo's solid jiu-jitsu and striking (leg kicks, body kicks), while Winn has been unimpressive in the UFC and may struggle with the size disadvantage. Brady predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna pick him to win by first round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antônio Arroyo

The host leans Arroyo due to his size and striking advantage, believing his leg kicks and range will be too much for the smaller Winn. He notes Winn's cardio issues and struggles against larger opponents. He predicts a decision win for Arroyo.

"the lean here is antonio hoyo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Deron Winn

The Guru picks Deron Winn but is undecided. He believes Arroyo has poor cardio and that Winn can outlast him in the first two rounds. He notes Winn's wrestling and that Arroyo hasn't shown finishing ability. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Winn, with Arroyo possibly winning the third round.

"i think the romwin gets it done... i'll say bye decision 29 28 i think arroyo win will win the third round but the romwin is going to have enough in his tank in the first two rounds to get the job done"