UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 2"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tafon Nchukwi
5.57 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
4.11 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jamie Pickett
2.65 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.62 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.26 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Tafon Nchukwi - Fight History
LOSS vs A.J. Dobson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
A.J. Dobson 0 67 of 134 50% 98 of 176 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:33
Tafon Nchukwi 0 53 of 99 53% 59 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 A.J. Dobson 0 34 of 65 52% 36 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Tafon Nchukwi 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 A.J. Dobson 0 28 of 51 54% 29 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Tafon Nchukwi 0 26 of 48 54% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 A.J. Dobson 0 5 of 18 27% 33 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:57
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
A.J. Dobson 67 of 134 50% 19 of 75 12 of 18 36 of 41 61 of 119 2 of 5 4 of 10
Tafon Nchukwi 53 of 99 53% 11 of 47 12 of 15 30 of 37 49 of 92 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 A.J. Dobson 34 of 65 52% 6 of 31 10 of 15 18 of 19 31 of 59 0 of 0 3 of 6
Tafon Nchukwi 24 of 45 53% 4 of 20 7 of 10 13 of 15 24 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 A.J. Dobson 28 of 51 54% 12 of 31 2 of 3 14 of 17 26 of 47 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 26 of 48 54% 6 of 25 5 of 5 15 of 18 22 of 42 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 A.J. Dobson 5 of 18 27% 1 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 13 0 of 1 1 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 6 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.

"I like AJ in this Underdog spot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.

"give me give me tafon by decision the chin seriously worries me a little bit though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.

Mentioned weigh-ins are key; will bet Dobson more if Nchukwi looks bad
"plus money on Dobson whatever I would take it I think he's got the speed of edge work some from the outside maybe mixes in a couple takedowns it's his coming out party"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.

"I'd play Dobson here because I don't think anyone should be the underdog... I probably favor Dobson very slightly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.

Nchukwi by decision
"give me in chukwi though and I think as long as he stays conscious he'll do a good enough job of working AJ Dobson and eventually winning this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.

Weigh-ins key; will bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks bad
"I'm actually picking the underdog uh AJ Dobson with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.

"I'm gonna go AJ Dobson over tap on and check where"
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
TKO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 15 of 19 78% 15 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 15 of 19 78% 15 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 15 of 19 78% 9 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 15 of 19 78% 9 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg in a tough striking match. He acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi looked amazing in his last fight before getting caught, but worries that Nchukwi may be gun-shy coming off a KO loss less than three months ago. He believes Ulberg is the more technical striker and if Nchukwi lets Ulberg get into a rhythm, he'll lose a technical kickboxing match.

"i am going to pick ulberg here because stefan's ko loss is less than three months ago and not that i think his brains are still scrambled but i think he might be a little gun-shy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision. He believes Nchukwi is the more complete MMA fighter with paths to victory via takedowns, cage control, and cardio. He notes Ulberg's untested takedown defense and ground game, and that Nchukwi has successfully taken down strong opponents. He favors Ulberg on the feet but thinks Nchukwi will make it an MMA fight and grind out a decision. He says the line should be flipped.

"i think the fawn has more paths to victory here... i think he takes down olberg and ultimately grinds out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Cody leans towards Nchukwi, citing Ulberg's cardio issues and inexperience. He thinks Nchukwi's physical strength and wrestling could be key, especially in the smaller Apex cage. He also likes Nchukwi by submission at 18-1 as a longshot prop.

Nchukwi by submission +1800
"i'm leaning towards to find jaquie and enjoy by submission 18 to 1."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ulberg hasn't looked good and Nchukwi has a path via takedowns. He thinks the price is even and Nchukwi is live.

"it's an even money fight both sides of minus 110 both sides there's no real underdog but i'm i'm leaning towards to find jaquie"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The host picks Tafon Nchukwi as an underdog, believing he will make improvements at 27 while Ulberg is older and less likely to improve. He notes Nchukwi nearly beat Azamat Murzakanov and looked good against Mike Rodriguez. He expects a KO in the second or third round, citing Ulberg's lack of toughness and Nchukwi's power.

KO prediction in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to go with taffon chuckwe"
KO (flying knee) R3 0:44 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 43 of 98 43% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Tafon Nchukwi 1 28 of 69 40% 28 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 17 of 40 42% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Tafon Nchukwi 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 1 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 43 of 98 43% 14 of 59 17 of 27 12 of 12 35 of 88 8 of 10 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 28 of 69 40% 25 of 60 3 of 8 0 of 1 26 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 17 of 40 42% 5 of 22 7 of 13 5 of 5 12 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 13 of 31 41% 11 of 24 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 25 of 52 48% 8 of 32 10 of 13 7 of 7 22 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 12 of 31 38% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 10 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, expecting him to use his wrestling despite being known for striking. He notes that Tafon Nchukwi has more high-level experience but tends to back up and slow down under pressure. He believes Murzakanov's forward pressure and wrestling will be the difference.

"i actually think as matt will go to his wrestling here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to win by first-round TKO. He notes Murzakanov is very well-rounded with heavy hands and a solid top game, but has cardio concerns since he's never been to a third round. He thinks Murzakanov can hurt Nchukwi on the feet or take him down and finish him, referencing Nchukwi's poor get-up game against Jung Park. However, he won't bet the fight due to the cardio and low-output risks.

first round tko
"I'm gonna take azamat murzakanov to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev at -106
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, stating that he is a little more experienced, smarter, and more comfortable in the cage. He thinks Murzakanov will point-fight for three rounds or possibly find a finish. Levi acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi's power and potential but believes Murzakanov's experience and fewer mistakes will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with azuma to to get the win here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Murzakanov is a fast, agile striker with good cardio and takedown ability. He can close distance quickly and has power in both hands. Nchukwi has speed and cardio issues, and may overextend. Murzakanov is expected to outwork Nchukwi over 15 minutes or finish late, with a decision at plus 320 being a value play.

Murzakanov via decision at plus 320 is the official prediction.
"I like Azamat here. I think he outworks Tafon over 15 minutes or he potentially finishes Tafon late in this fight. So as an official prediction, I will go with Murzakanov via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov over Tafon Nchukwi, citing his nasty hands and power advantage. He notes that Murzakanov has laid opponents out cold and has grappling to fall back on, referencing a video of him beating Ion Cuțelaba in a grappling competition. He predicts a first-round TKO, trusting Murzakanov's physicality and technique despite Nchukwi having good stand-up of his own.

first round TKO
"i'm going to start straight away with azamat mazakanov here i think he's a favorite for a reason he's a very very promising contender beat some good opponents laid a guy out cold in his last fight"
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
LOSS vs JunYong Park
Decision (majority) (30–25, 29–26, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JunYong Park 0 71 of 145 48% 79 of 155 2 of 5 40% 2 0 3:49
Tafon Nchukwi 0 58 of 136 42% 64 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JunYong Park 0 30 of 69 43% 30 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 0 30 of 69 43% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 JunYong Park 0 16 of 35 45% 16 of 35 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:34
Tafon Nchukwi 0 21 of 43 48% 24 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
3 JunYong Park 0 25 of 41 60% 33 of 51 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:15
Tafon Nchukwi 0 7 of 24 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JunYong Park 71 of 145 48% 61 of 134 4 of 5 6 of 6 48 of 117 3 of 3 20 of 25
Tafon Nchukwi 58 of 136 42% 20 of 83 25 of 33 13 of 20 51 of 127 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JunYong Park 30 of 69 43% 24 of 62 2 of 3 4 of 4 28 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 30 of 69 43% 9 of 39 13 of 16 8 of 14 25 of 63 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 JunYong Park 16 of 35 45% 13 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 2 15 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 21 of 43 48% 9 of 28 8 of 10 4 of 5 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 JunYong Park 25 of 41 60% 24 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 20 of 25
Tafon Nchukwi 7 of 24 29% 2 of 16 4 of 7 1 of 1 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Big Brady likes Park's durability and chin, noting he has never been knocked out. He thinks Park will mix in takedowns to wear out Nchukwi, who may have cardio issues despite a good gas tank in his last fight. Brady is concerned about Nchukwi's striking defense after being hit by Pickett. He calls it a close fight that can go either way but leans Park by decision. He explicitly says no bet for him.

"I'm going to take park to win a very close decision but man like i said this fight can go either way but give me the underdog in jungyeon park no bet for me on this one."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Daniel Levi picks Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that African power can make up for experience and technique. He notes Nchukwi's good technique, cardio, and ability to go the distance as seen in the Pickett fight. He believes Nchukwi's takedown defense and get-up game will neutralize Park's wrestling, and that Nchukwi will outstrike Park. He respects Park but thinks Nchukwi is the better athlete.

"i'm gonna go with stefan chukwue uh to handle biz here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
JunYong Park

The host favors JunYong Park as a live underdog, citing his durability, cardio, and ability to push the pace. He believes Nchukwi is one-dimensional and will struggle if he doesn't get an early knockout. He likes the over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision, and Park by decision props.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision -110, Park by decision +250
"i absolutely agree with the public underdog here in junior park as i think that he can put on a base on chukwue"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The MMA Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi over JunYong Park, acknowledging it's a tough fight to predict. He thinks Nchukwi's size and strength will allow him to stop Park's takedowns and win by decision, possibly 30-27. He notes Nchukwi showed he can go three rounds in his last fight, which alleviates cardio concerns.

"i am going to be going with taffon chuckwee here i think he's just going to be a little bit too big and strong for jung young park"
WIN vs Jamie Pickett
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tafon Nchukwi 1 120 of 187 64% 159 of 234 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:51
Jamie Pickett 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tafon Nchukwi 0 35 of 58 60% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Jamie Pickett 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
2 Tafon Nchukwi 0 41 of 69 59% 54 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Jamie Pickett 0 25 of 43 58% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tafon Nchukwi 1 44 of 60 73% 62 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:37
Jamie Pickett 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tafon Nchukwi 120 of 187 64% 70 of 133 49 of 53 1 of 1 59 of 118 57 of 63 4 of 6
Jamie Pickett 40 of 81 49% 28 of 68 8 of 9 4 of 4 39 of 77 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tafon Nchukwi 35 of 58 60% 22 of 44 13 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 41 15 of 17 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Tafon Nchukwi 41 of 69 59% 19 of 45 22 of 24 0 of 0 16 of 41 25 of 28 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 25 of 43 58% 15 of 33 6 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tafon Nchukwi 44 of 60 73% 29 of 44 14 of 15 1 of 1 23 of 36 17 of 18 4 of 6
Jamie Pickett 6 of 21 28% 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi over Jamie Pickett, noting Nchukwi's power and takedown defense (stuffed all takedowns seen on tape). He believes Pickett has no path to victory, as he cannot take Nchukwi down and will likely get knocked out. Brady predicts a first-round KO, though he notes Nchukwi's low output and the weight cut to 185 as potential concerns.

first round knockout
"i think he's gonna knock out picket here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The host is confident in Nchukwi, citing his power, combinations, and high guard. He notes Pickett's tall-man defense and cardio issues. He predicts a first or second-round KO for Nchukwi and considers him a safe parlay piece, but advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Nchukwi's weight cut.

Nchukwi inside the distance, first or second round KO
"i think tufan could definitely be a problem for a lot of people"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi, believing he is a massive favorite. He notes Nchukwi's youth and improvement, and that he knocked out William Knight. He criticizes Jamie Pickett's level of competition and says Pickett is moving up in weight. He predicts a brutal first-round KO for Nchukwi.

Predicts a first-round KO/TKO.
"i think the chickwe is going to get a brutal ko in the first round... i think he'll get the job done against pika in the first round by tko"
Jamie Pickett - Fight History
LOSS vs Eryk Anders
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Eryk Anders 0 23 of 59 38% 83 of 147 5 of 13 38% 0 0 10:08
Jamie Pickett 1 20 of 55 36% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Eryk Anders 0 7 of 19 36% 20 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:42
Jamie Pickett 1 8 of 19 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Eryk Anders 0 10 of 23 43% 33 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:57
Jamie Pickett 0 11 of 24 45% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Eryk Anders 0 6 of 17 35% 30 of 56 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:29
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Eryk Anders 23 of 59 38% 14 of 48 7 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 38 7 of 9 4 of 12
Jamie Pickett 20 of 55 36% 11 of 45 8 of 9 1 of 1 12 of 46 8 of 8 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Eryk Anders 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 8 of 19 42% 3 of 14 4 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 1
2 Eryk Anders 10 of 23 43% 6 of 18 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 16 5 of 6 0 of 1
Jamie Pickett 11 of 24 45% 8 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Eryk Anders 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 11
Jamie Pickett 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Angelo picks Eryk Anders, citing his athleticism, durability, and ability to bully his way to a win. He notes Anders is a large favorite at -330, which is too wide for him, but he expects Anders to win. He suggests there might be value on inside the distance props.

Inside the distance (potential value)
"Eric Anders at minus 330 Eric Anders is a bigger favorite over Jamie picket than Muhammad makv is over Alex bre"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Big Brady picks Anders, calling it a cage-pushing fight. He notes Anders has higher volume, more power, and is physically stronger. He expects Anders to push Pickett against the cage and take him down, similar to his 24-takedown-attempt fight. He predicts a greasy decision win for Anders.

"give me Eric Anders to win this fight win this fight by Greasy greasy decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Cody picks Anders, calling him a gatekeeper who beats lower-level opponents like Pickett. He notes Pickett's terrible output and lack of finishing ability, and that Anders has been competitive with better fighters. Cody believes Anders will win but calls it a bad bet at minus-500, though he admits he'll include Anders in parlays as a degenerate.

"I think he wins and I'm a degenerate and I'll pay minus 500 on him and some stupid parlays but if they lost I got nobody to blame but myself because it's B it's a bad bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Anders should be able to force the action, push Pickett against the cage, and land takedowns. However, Anders is 36 and slowing down, and -400 is not a number to trust with him. The fight is expected to be closely competitive and go to the scorecards, with Anders likely getting his hand raised. The host prefers the over or fight goes to decision.

fight goes to decision
"minus 400 is not a number that I really want to trust Andre with I expect this fight to be closely competitive in certain spots but I think that we see this fight go to the judge's scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Paul picks Anders but is hesitant due to the minus-500 price. He notes Anders has been inconsistent but has faced better competition and has shown improved cardio and output recently. He thinks Pickett is on a losing streak and lacks volume or power. Paul expects Anders to win but acknowledges the price is steep and that Pickett could make it close.

"Eric Anders is uh he's the rightful favorite he should win the fight he wins the fight more often than not but like at minus 500 you got to realize with Anders is he fights with his foot not on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

The MMA Guru initially considered Pickett but decided Anders is the pick. He notes Anders was close with Marc-André Barriault and had a scrap, while Pickett is on a four-fight losing streak and has no impressive wins. He calls Pickett 'awful' and says his wins are unimpressive.

"We're going to go Eric Anders over Jamie Pickett in 2024... Jamie Pickett's awful"
LOSS vs Josh Fremd
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Fremd 0 31 of 80 38% 59 of 109 0 of 3 0% 2 1 7:15
Jamie Pickett 0 14 of 52 26% 26 of 67 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Fremd 0 11 of 29 37% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:31
Jamie Pickett 0 4 of 18 22% 8 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
2 Josh Fremd 0 13 of 31 41% 17 of 35 0 of 1 0% 2 0 1:51
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 15 33% 7 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:39
3 Josh Fremd 0 7 of 20 35% 19 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:53
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 19 26% 11 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Fremd 31 of 80 38% 11 of 49 10 of 18 10 of 13 22 of 64 6 of 11 3 of 5
Jamie Pickett 14 of 52 26% 4 of 31 6 of 16 4 of 5 11 of 45 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Fremd 11 of 29 37% 2 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 7 9 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 4 of 18 22% 0 of 9 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 15 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Josh Fremd 13 of 31 41% 7 of 20 4 of 7 2 of 4 7 of 22 3 of 4 3 of 5
Jamie Pickett 5 of 15 33% 1 of 8 2 of 4 2 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Fremd 7 of 20 35% 2 of 12 3 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 19 26% 3 of 14 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Angelo picks Fremd, citing his improving grappling and athleticism. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy and has poor takedown defense. He expects Fremd to wrestle and grind out a win.

"I think Joss stream WINS"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Big Brady picks Josh Fremd to win by submission in the second round. He believes Fremd has Pickett covered in every aspect, noting Pickett's three-fight skid and poor durability. He mentions Fremd's power and submission game, and says Fremd can win by decision, knockout, or submission. He is not laying -325 but is confident Fremd gets it done.

submission, second round
"I'll say submission for friend but it could be a knockout like Fram you take a look at some of his fights outside the UFC this guy has incredible power"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Cody picks Fremd, citing his wrestling background, cardio, and improvement. He notes Fremd's competitive fight against Fluffy Hernandez and his submission win over Cedric Dumas. He criticizes Pickett's three-fight losing streak and lack of UFC-level skills. He thinks Fremd's wrestling and grappling advantage will be too much, and that Pickett's job is on the line but he doesn't see a path to victory.

"the pick is Josh Brown"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

James picks Fremd but is not confident, calling it a 'bad fight' and not his type. He thinks Fremd should win but notes Pickett is tough, long, and strong in the clinch. He believes the line at -350 is too wide and should be around -250. He likely won't bet it.

"I am picking Fremd here... it's just not my type of fight where I'm gonna be making a big case."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Fremd showed a relentless wrestling style in his last fight, but he is a heavy favorite at -350 against a guy on a three-fight losing streak. Pickett relies on physical traits but is not great technically. Fremd's wrestling and pace should be too much, but trusting him at such a short price is risky given his limited sample size. Fremd should grind out a decision.

Fremd by decision
"my prediction is still going to be Josh friend as I think he grinds this fight out and wins it by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Paul picks Fremd, agreeing that Pickett doesn't belong in the UFC. He notes Fremd's submission skills and ability to get dominant positions. He thinks Fremd will likely win by submission. He considered Pickett at plus money but after digging, concluded Pickett is just not good enough.

Fremd by submission
"friend probably by sub is is how I would see this one shaking out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

The MMA Guru picks Josh Fremd over Jamie Pickett, noting Fremd's losses to Anthony Hernandez (who is doing that to everyone) and Tresean Gore (a nasty guillotine). He believes Fremd is more well-rounded with grappling and striking, and that Pickett tends to fade in fights. He thinks Fremd's potential and size advantage will lead to a win, possibly ending Pickett's UFC career.

"I'm going with Josh friend I'm going with Josh friend"
LOSS vs Bo Nickal
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:54 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1400), Pickett (+850)

Round 1
The main card of UFC 285 begins with the hotly anticipated debut of elite college wrestler Nickal (3-0, 0-0 UFC), who is entering only his fourth pro fight with a combined two minutes and 27 seconds of fight time under his belt not counting his amateur outings. He meets Pickett (13-8, 2-4 UFC), whose last trip to the cage lasted nearly 10 minutes, or nearly twice much time as Nickal’s pro and amateur career combined. Nickal comes in as a nonsensical favorite of -2000 or above in some books, and referee Keith Peterson will be the one to clock them in despite that nonsense. The middleweights do not touch gloves, as they would rather get right to it. Nickal leaps forward, jumps in the air with a kick that misses, and he hits the floor. Nickal shoots for a takedown, and Pickett stuffs it on the first try. Nickal shoves him against the wall and knees him a few times, and Pickett grimaces from an apparent knee to the groin. The foul uncalled, Nickal throws his man to his knees, and searches for a possible brabo choke, only to release it to circle around and take the back. Nickal grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and he changes it to a neck crank but lets it go to look for another opening. Nickal jumps to the side, and he wraps his left arm beneath Pickett’s chin and squeezes with an arm-triangle choke. Pickett talks to Nickal the whole time while the submission is being attempted, and Pickett is able to survive the first strong squeeze. Pickett defends with his left arm between the neck and the choke, and Nickal adjusts and fastens it tighter. Pickett stays composed and calm as Nickal keeps squeezing, and Pickett pushes off the hip and stays with it. The wrestler keeps the vice-like grip as tight as can be, and he forces Pickett to finally surrender, thereby boosting his young record to 4-0 with four finishes on his ledger. Nickal has made good on his promotional debut, and the next question will soon be what the UFC does with him next with all the hype surrounding him. The victorious Nickal claims in his post-fight interview that he will be not only the champion, but the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Jamie Pickett R1 2:54 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is certain Bo Nickal will win, stating he will wrestle immediately and finish the fight. He notes that the odds are extremely high and there is no value, but Nickal is the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport. Angelo advises against betting due to the poor odds.

"Bo nickel should win he's the closest thing to a guarantee that you will get in the sport"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling him a next-level wrestler with power and submission ability. He notes Jamie Pickett has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission for Nickal, welcoming him to the UFC.

first round submission
"this is Beau Nickel in the first round first round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance, likely by submission. He thinks Nickal will overwhelm Pickett early and finish him in the first round. He recommends under 1.5 rounds and says Nickal ends up on parlay tickets.

Under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't get out of the first round; Bo Nickal inside the distance
"under one and a half for me flight doesn't get out of the first round Bo nickel inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor is extremely confident Nickal wins, calling it a soft touch. He notes Pickett is a good athlete but easily cowed by superior athletes, with poor body language and a tendency to crumble. He expects Nickal to finish via TKO or submission, though Pickett may avoid submission briefly.

Mentions Nickal by TKO/KO +175 to +225, by submission -165 to -143. Suggests Nickal by finish is likely.
"Bo Nickal is going to beat the pants off Jamie Pickett. All right, done."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Jacob agrees that Bo Nickal will win, but questions whether Nickal will go for a quick takedown or try to show off his striking. He notes that Jamie Pickett folds under pressure and that this matchup was made for a reason. Jacob sees no value in betting on Nickal at these odds.

"this is a bow nickel play all the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal is a decorated wrestler with good submissions. Pickett is on a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job. Nickal will get a takedown and submit him in the first round. Look for early finishing props.

Nickal wins in round 1
"Bo nickel will win this fight any way he wants he will get the takedown he'll be able to wrap up a submission I think he does it within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul agrees Nickal will win easily but notes the odds are too short to bet the moneyline. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced and considers a small sprinkle on the over as a contrarian play, but ultimately expects a quick finish.

Under 1.5 rounds (-300); considers a small sprinkle on the over as a longshot
"I mean it's it's all the entire Market is like bow nickel is going to absolutely kill them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission, likely a rear-naked choke. He criticizes Pickett's lack of quality wins and believes Nickal's wrestling will be too much.

First round submission predicted
"I'm going with bow nickel... I think he's gonna go out there get the takedown and get the sub."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane agrees, calling Pickett a 'gentle giant' who crumbles under pressure. He notes Pickett was submitted by Kyle Daukaus and TKO'd by Jordan Wright, so a finish is probable. He sees no path for Pickett.

"He is the definition of a gentle giant... crumbled faster than Jordan Wright."
LOSS vs Denis Tiuliulin
TKO (knee and punches) R2 4:52 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denis Tiuliulin 2 73 of 161 45% 87 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Jamie Pickett 0 60 of 111 54% 63 of 114 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denis Tiuliulin 0 22 of 76 28% 28 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jamie Pickett 0 35 of 60 58% 37 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Denis Tiuliulin 2 51 of 85 60% 59 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Jamie Pickett 0 25 of 51 49% 26 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denis Tiuliulin 73 of 161 45% 53 of 131 19 of 28 1 of 2 52 of 133 15 of 15 6 of 13
Jamie Pickett 60 of 111 54% 44 of 90 13 of 18 3 of 3 56 of 103 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denis Tiuliulin 22 of 76 28% 16 of 64 5 of 11 1 of 1 22 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 35 of 60 58% 23 of 46 10 of 12 2 of 2 33 of 57 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Denis Tiuliulin 51 of 85 60% 37 of 67 14 of 17 0 of 1 30 of 57 15 of 15 6 of 13
Jamie Pickett 25 of 51 49% 21 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1 23 of 46 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his takedowns and ability to win via grappling. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy, while Tiuliulin is a brawler with power. He thinks if Pickett manages range and uses takedowns, he can win, but it's a low-confidence pick.

"I'm gonna lean Pickett because he does have eight takedowns in the UFC and he is an okay striker and these low volume guys are super frustrating but if Jamie gets it to the ground I think it's a clear …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Big Brady picks Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, criticizing Jamie Pickett for being inactive and fighting not to lose. He was impressed by Tiuliulin's debut against a tough prospect and believes Tiuliulin can stuff takedowns and land a big shot. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he expects the fight to be terrible overall.

first round knockout
"I'm actually going to pick Dennis here as a dog to go out there and knock out Jamie Pickett."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Cody leans towards Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, noting that Jamie Pickett is not a great wrestler and that Tiuliulin has power and durability. He mentions that Pickett's takedown defense is not elite and that Tiuliulin can hold his own on the feet. He is not betting it but picks Tiuliulin for the show.

Pickett under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"leaning towards the dogs with dennis chi lulin for me not betting it though"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Daniel Levi picks Denis Tiuliulin for the upset. He notes Tiuliulin's knockout power and long striking, while Pickett has been finished before. He acknowledges Pickett's physical advantages and takedown ability, but believes if Tiuliulin can avoid being taken down, he can light up Pickett on the feet. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I'm gonna go out on a limb here i'm gonna take a dennis chaluan for the upset."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Jacob strongly disagrees, picking Denis Tiuliulin. He thinks Pickett does not belong in the UFC, is gun-shy, and has telegraphed takedowns. He praises Tiuliulin's striking, power, and toughness, noting he landed clean shots against a dominant wrestler on short notice. He believes Tiuliulin will march forward and find a finish.

has bets on Tiuliulin for premium members
"I'm the knee all the way man if you're a premium member I got bets you better become a premium member."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jamie Pickett

The host leans Jamie Pickett but can't back him at -130. He expects Pickett to use his physical attributes to overpower Tiuliulin in the clinch and grind out a decision. He notes Tiuliulin's power but thinks Pickett's durability and bullying style will prevail.

over 2.5 rounds (-140)
"I think Jamie just grinds him out and wins this fight by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Paul leans towards Jamie Pickett, noting that Tiuliulin has poor takedown defense and cardio, which are Pickett's strengths. He believes Pickett will use his wrestling to lean on Tiuliulin and tire him out. However, he is not confident and says it's a dog or pass fight.

"i would have to lean towards pickett even though he's a slight favorite you could just chalk this one up to a dog or pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Denis Tiuliulin

The MMA Guru picks Denis Tiuliulin to win by TKO in the first round. He describes both fighters playing at range early, with Tiuliulin looking for body kicks. Pickett will time punches when Tiuliulin kicks, but as he rushes in, Tiuliulin lands a big shot over the top, rocks Pickett, and finishes with body shots and big shots against the cage.

TKO in the first round
"I'm gonna go with Dennis Chilean by TKO in the first round"
LOSS vs Kyle Daukaus
Submission (D'Arce choke) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett

Round 1
Receiving an upgrade to the co-main event slot, Daukaus (10-2, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) and Pickett (13-6, 2-2 UFC) will handle their business at a pre-planned 195-pound catchweight due to the latter taking the fight on short notice. This fun stylistic clash will draw officiating from referee Herb Dean, and the fighters gladly touch gloves as they are happy to be fighting tonight. Pickett strikes first with few low kicks, and Daukaus replies in kind. Right after Daukaus wings a right hand, he changes levels to go after a takedown. Although Pickett stays upright on the first attempt, Daukaus sucks his legs out beneath him and drags him down. From his back, “The Nightwolf” holds on to a guillotine choke, and Daukaus wisely comes around with his own shoulder to set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Pickett lets go of his arm grip so that he does not himself get submitted, and instead sits up and turns on his hip to try to stand back up. Daukaus keeps his man trapped beneath him, smacking him in the face with a few right hands, but Pickett explodes out of the position and powers back to his feet. Pickett tries to let his hands go when he gets upright, only to find Daukaus right on him to go hunting for a single. The Philadelphia native successfully lifts Pickett’s leg all the way up in the air before slamming him to the mat, and he is quick to secure half guard. When Pickett sits up and turns like before, Daukaus times this to try to take his back. Pickett simply stands up from this position, and he shucks Daukaus off of his back. Daukaus does not let up, remaining tied to Pickett until he lets go of his own accord. Out of nowhere, Daukaus drills Pickett with a few punches square on the chin, and when Pickett is shaken up, Daukaus leaps forward to snag another takedown.
Pickett falls to his back, and when he rolls to his side, Daukaus quickly attacks with a sneaky brabo choke from a difficult angle. In half guard, Daukaus keeps the choke snaked around Pickett’s neck and it is tight. With no way to get out, Pickett wriggles his arm free so that he can tap out on Daukaus’ side barely one second before the horn blares.
There is a bit of confusion as to the timing of the stoppage, or whether Pickett reached the end of the round, but it appears that he tapped out just before the bell. What a way to win a fight!

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Jamie Pickett R1 4:59 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his recent performance against Joseph Holmes where he showed volume and mixed in takedowns. He notes that if Pickett fights aggressively and uses takedowns, he beats Daukaus almost every time. However, he acknowledges Pickett's gun-shy tendencies could be a problem.

"i'm gonna do a slight lean to jamie pickett because we just saw that version of him three weeks ago"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting Pickett has low output and has been outgrappled by lesser fighters. He believes Daukaus has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a submission in the first or second round.

win by submission in first or second round
"give me tylenol dawkis to submit jamie pickett I'll say in that first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Kyle Daukaus, citing his well-rounded skill set and superior grappling. He notes that Daukaus has shown good moments in his UFC fights, including a strong performance against Kevin Holland that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental headbutt. Cody believes Daukaus will have faster hand speed and should be able to take the fight to the mat, where he has a sizable advantage. He also mentions that Jamie Pickett's game is not well-rounded and relies on smothering opponents against the cage.

"yeah much of the same the only thing that could maybe cause for concern is if jamie pickett just spam clinches up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Levi leans toward Daukaus but thinks the line is too wide, suggesting it should be around -175. He acknowledges Pickett's momentum and confidence from two wins, but notes Pickett's wins were over lower-level opponents. Levi expects Daukaus to win a close decision, possibly an ugly fight, and mentions Daukaus should finish but might not.

line should be -175 to -165; Daukaus by close decision
"i slightly lean them but not by that much i think it's a dog or pass situation but i'll take darkest by a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus is better everywhere: clinch, grappling, and developing striking. Pickett has physical tools but lacks output and fight IQ. Daukaus should control the fight with takedowns and either submit or decision Pickett. The sub/decision combo at -165 is a great line. A knockout is unlikely, so the method is between submission and decision.

Daukaus by sub or decision (-165), Daukaus by decision (+120)
"fanduel has done buckets by sub or decision at -165 and i think that's a hell of a line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting that Pickett is low-volume and doesn't use his long reach well. He thinks Daukaus's path to victory is to take the fight to the mat, where he should have a clear advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pickett could spam clinches, but overall he sees Daukaus as a rightful favorite at -250.

"i think the real path to victory here for kyle dawkis is take this fight to the mat where he should have a sizable advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by 29-28 decision in a clinch-heavy fight. He believes Daukaus has better technique on the feet and superior jiu-jitsu, and can neutralize Pickett's cage-grappling game. He notes Daukaus has a good chin and has never been finished as a pro, so Pickett's power is less of a threat. He expects a boring clinch fest with Daukaus edging out the rounds.

decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with kyle dawkis here over jamie pickett ... i think he's going to be able to sort of neutralize the cage holding game of jamie picker"
WIN vs Joseph Holmes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Pickett 0 50 of 122 40% 54 of 126 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:02
Joseph Holmes 0 51 of 93 54% 59 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Pickett 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Joseph Holmes 0 24 of 35 68% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
2 Jamie Pickett 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Joseph Holmes 0 13 of 27 48% 18 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
3 Jamie Pickett 0 17 of 44 38% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Joseph Holmes 0 14 of 31 45% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Pickett 50 of 122 40% 22 of 86 19 of 24 9 of 12 40 of 108 10 of 14 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 51 of 93 54% 30 of 65 13 of 19 8 of 9 41 of 82 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Pickett 10 of 23 43% 4 of 15 3 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 24 of 35 68% 13 of 21 7 of 9 4 of 5 17 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Jamie Pickett 23 of 55 41% 12 of 42 9 of 10 2 of 3 18 of 50 5 of 5 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 13 of 27 48% 9 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Pickett 17 of 44 38% 6 of 29 7 of 11 4 of 4 13 of 36 4 of 8 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 14 of 31 45% 8 of 22 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Pickett due to UFC experience, but worries about Holmes' equal size and grappling threat. He notes Pickett's reach advantage is neutralized and that both can be gun-shy. He calls it a razor-thin pick and says he won't bet on it.

Not throwing any money at this fight; too close to call.
"i am leaning towards pickett because of the experience but i do worry that joseph holmes is a genuine athlete"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Big Brady thinks the odds are off, as Joseph Holmes is inexperienced and has fought low-level competition, while Jamie Pickett has faced UFC-caliber fighters. He calls it a coin flip and says he would not bet it, but if forced to pick, he takes Pickett as a dog by decision. He notes both fighters have similar skill sets and low volume.

"i'm going to pick jamie pickett i'm going to pick him by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Cody leans toward Holmes, citing his length and reach advantage. He notes Holmes's camp (James Krause) will have a good game plan. He expects Holmes to use his range striking and avoid grappling. However, he admits Holmes looked green and the fight could go either way.

"i would say holmes fight probably over one and a half over two and a half figures of distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Daniel Levi leans toward Joseph Holmes, citing his physical advantages (6'4", 80-inch reach) and finishing ability (submission and KO). He notes that Pickett has folded under pressure in the past, losing by first-round finishes to Charles Byrd and Jordan Wright. Levi is hesitant because Holmes hasn't been tested at UFC level, but he believes Holmes will outwork Pickett in a close fight. He also mentions Pickett's mental struggles and that he's seeing a therapist.

"i'm going to go with joseph holmes here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The host leans toward Joseph Holmes, expecting him to dictate the pace with clinch work and takedowns against the cage. He notes Pickett's durability but thinks Holmes' aggression and control will win rounds. The host is not confident in a finish, predicting a decision. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a possible bet due to both fighters' low finishing rates.

Over 1.5 rounds at -185 mentioned as a possible bet.
"i'm gonna be going joseph holmes and i'm actually gonna take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Paul leans toward Pickett as an underdog, citing his experience and durability. He notes Holmes is very green and his striking is telegraphed. He expects Pickett's strength in the clinch to be a factor. However, he acknowledges Holmes's length and potential if he keeps the fight at range.

"i'm leaning towards pickett here as an underdog uh plus 120 is the price to pay just more way more experience"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Holmes' Muay Thai background, range, power, and accuracy on the feet, and notes that Holmes already beat Pickett on the regional scene by first-round destruction. He doesn't see Pickett's grappling as a threat, as Holmes is rangier and better at controlling distance. He expects Holmes to land a clean shot early and finish the fight quickly, similar to how Jordan Wright did.

"i'm gonna trust in joseph holmes to beat jamie picker here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Pickett 0 47 of 96 48% 58 of 108 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Laureano Staropoli 0 25 of 62 40% 43 of 80 1 of 9 11% 0 0 5:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Pickett 0 10 of 18 55% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Laureano Staropoli 0 4 of 7 57% 7 of 10 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:00
2 Jamie Pickett 0 18 of 35 51% 26 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Laureano Staropoli 0 11 of 21 52% 18 of 28 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:13
3 Jamie Pickett 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Laureano Staropoli 0 10 of 34 29% 18 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Pickett 47 of 96 48% 23 of 64 23 of 30 1 of 2 26 of 72 21 of 23 0 of 1
Laureano Staropoli 25 of 62 40% 14 of 48 8 of 11 3 of 3 19 of 54 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Pickett 10 of 18 55% 2 of 7 7 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 10 8 of 8 0 of 0
Laureano Staropoli 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jamie Pickett 18 of 35 51% 9 of 22 9 of 12 0 of 1 11 of 26 7 of 8 0 of 1
Laureano Staropoli 11 of 21 52% 6 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jamie Pickett 19 of 43 44% 12 of 35 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
Laureano Staropoli 10 of 34 29% 6 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo is surprised Pickett is such a big underdog. He notes Pickett has a foot reach advantage and manages range well, and can mix in takedowns. He thinks Staropoli gets gun shy and is hit twice as much as he hits. He already grabbed a +3.5 bet on Pickett, meaning he only needs Pickett to win one round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight (over 73.5 combined strikes).

grabbed a +3.5 bet on Pickett at +115; likes more/more on monkey knife fight
"i am surprised that jamie pickett is such a big underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Big Brady picks Staropoli as the more talented fighter despite a three-fight skid, noting his losses came against tough competition. He worries about Staropoli's size disadvantage and Pickett's 8.5-inch reach advantage, but believes Staropoli's skill edge will carry him to a close decision. He advises against betting this fight.

no bet recommended
"i got to go star upholding i think he is the better fighter"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Cody picks Laureano Staropoli, citing his volume, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Pickett has poor striking defense, moves backward, and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Cody believes Staropoli will win the numbers battle and likely take a decision, though he acknowledges the price is high. He sees Staropoli as a lower-tier parlay piece.

Fight goes 15; decision
"i got lyra on a star pulley and this is just another case of do you want to pay by his 250 for leonardo sterpoli"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Lock leans Staropoli based on competition level. He notes Pickett is not UFC level and Staropoli has fought better opponents. He expects Staropoli to win by decision but is not confident enough to bet heavily.

Staropoli by decision +110, over 2.5 rounds -230
"i am on the star police side because i'm just not that high on picket at all"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Paul leans towards Staropoli, noting that Pickett's best attribute was his durability, but that was shattered in his last fight. He agrees with Cody that Staropoli's forward pressure and volume should win the fight. However, Paul is not fully confident due to the price.

"that makes all the sense in the world and pickett's best thing what used to be his durability but that's kind of yeah i know"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

The MMA Guru picks Laureano Staropoli, noting that Staropoli is moving up to middleweight but is naturally a welterweight, which he believes makes him better than most middleweights. He points out that Jamie Pickett is coming off a KO loss and lacks quality wins, while Staropoli has faced tougher competition and is more technically sound. He predicts Staropoli will out-grapple Pickett and win by unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with loreanos tripoli here i think it's a good pick i think he's way more technically sound than jamie picker and i can see him actually out grappling jamie pickett throughout this fight"
LOSS vs Jordan Wright
TKO (punches) R1 1:04 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Wright 1 26 of 32 81% 33 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Jamie Pickett 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Wright 1 26 of 32 81% 33 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Jamie Pickett 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Wright 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 6 12 of 12 9 of 14
Jamie Pickett 4 of 5 80% 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Wright 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 6 12 of 12 9 of 14
Jamie Pickett 4 of 5 80% 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Pickett is durable, never knocked out, and has a solid chin. Wright has terrible striking defense (40%), no chin, and has never been to decision. Pickett can pressure forward, land hard shots, and has good wrestling. I expect Pickett to finish Wright in the second round by knockout.

by KO round 2
"I'm going to take pika here for the win i'm going to take in a win by a second round knockout for pickett"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Daniel Levi picks Jamie Pickett, citing his physicality, speed, and strength advantage. He notes that Jordan Wright (Beverly Hills Ninja) has a suspect chin, as seen in the Anthony Hernandez fight, and was steamrolled by Joaquin Buckley. Levi thinks Pickett can knock out Wright or win by decision, and calls this Pickett's best chance to get a UFC win.

mentions Wright's chin and Pickett's durability
"i'm going with jamie pickett to knock out the beverly hills ninja"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

The host picks Pickett but wants no part of betting the fight. He notes Pickett has shown durability, eating big shots from Soriano and Chukwu, while Wright has a questionable chin. He thinks Pickett lands a big shot and finishes Wright in the second round. However, he acknowledges both fighters are low level and that Wright could win if he lands early.

Pickett by KO in round 2
"i'll ultimately go with the guy who's been showing uh solid durability as of late and jamie pickett and i'll take him to this fight by second round ko but i want no part of this fight in terms of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Pickett to win by TKO in round 2. He notes that Jordan Wright has spectacular finishes but against weak competition, and that Wright slows down after the first round. He believes Pickett can absorb Wright's early onslaught, as shown in his fight with Pannie Soriano, and then finish Wright late in the second round against the cage.

Pickett wins by TKO in round 2
"i'm picking jamie pickett to get the tko in round two"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi over Jamie Pickett, noting Nchukwi's power and takedown defense (stuffed all takedowns seen on tape). He believes Pickett has no path to victory, as he cannot take Nchukwi down and will likely get knocked out. Brady predicts a first-round KO, though he notes Nchukwi's low output and the weight cut to 185 as potential concerns.

first round knockout
"i think he's gonna knock out picket here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The host is confident in Nchukwi, citing his power, combinations, and high guard. He notes Pickett's tall-man defense and cardio issues. He predicts a first or second-round KO for Nchukwi and considers him a safe parlay piece, but advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Nchukwi's weight cut.

Nchukwi inside the distance, first or second round KO
"i think tufan could definitely be a problem for a lot of people"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi, believing he is a massive favorite. He notes Nchukwi's youth and improvement, and that he knocked out William Knight. He criticizes Jamie Pickett's level of competition and says Pickett is moving up in weight. He predicts a brutal first-round KO for Nchukwi.

Predicts a first-round KO/TKO.
"i think the chickwe is going to get a brutal ko in the first round... i think he'll get the job done against pika in the first round by tko"