Career Averages - Tafon Nchukwi
Career Averages - Jamie Pickett
Tafon Nchukwi - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 67 of 134 | 50% | 98 of 176 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 53 of 99 | 53% | 59 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 36 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 33 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dobson | 67 of 134 | 50% | 19 of 75 | 12 of 18 | 36 of 41 | 61 of 119 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 53 of 99 | 53% | 11 of 47 | 12 of 15 | 30 of 37 | 49 of 92 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Dobson | 34 of 65 | 52% | 6 of 31 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 24 of 45 | 53% | 4 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 13 of 15 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | A.J. Dobson | 28 of 51 | 54% | 12 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 17 | 26 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 26 of 48 | 54% | 6 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 18 | 22 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | A.J. Dobson | 5 of 18 | 27% | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.
Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.
James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.
Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.
Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.
The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 19 | 78% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 19 | 78% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg in a tough striking match. He acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi looked amazing in his last fight before getting caught, but worries that Nchukwi may be gun-shy coming off a KO loss less than three months ago. He believes Ulberg is the more technical striker and if Nchukwi lets Ulberg get into a rhythm, he'll lose a technical kickboxing match.
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision. He believes Nchukwi is the more complete MMA fighter with paths to victory via takedowns, cage control, and cardio. He notes Ulberg's untested takedown defense and ground game, and that Nchukwi has successfully taken down strong opponents. He favors Ulberg on the feet but thinks Nchukwi will make it an MMA fight and grind out a decision. He says the line should be flipped.
Cody leans towards Nchukwi, citing Ulberg's cardio issues and inexperience. He thinks Nchukwi's physical strength and wrestling could be key, especially in the smaller Apex cage. He also likes Nchukwi by submission at 18-1 as a longshot prop.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ulberg hasn't looked good and Nchukwi has a path via takedowns. He thinks the price is even and Nchukwi is live.
The host picks Tafon Nchukwi as an underdog, believing he will make improvements at 27 while Ulberg is older and less likely to improve. He notes Nchukwi nearly beat Azamat Murzakanov and looked good against Mike Rodriguez. He expects a KO in the second or third round, citing Ulberg's lack of toughness and Nchukwi's power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 43 of 98 | 43% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 12 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov | 43 of 98 | 43% | 14 of 59 | 17 of 27 | 12 of 12 | 35 of 88 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 28 of 69 | 40% | 25 of 60 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azamat Murzakanov | 17 of 40 | 42% | 5 of 22 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Azamat Murzakanov | 25 of 52 | 48% | 8 of 32 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 12 of 31 | 38% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Azamat Murzakanov | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, expecting him to use his wrestling despite being known for striking. He notes that Tafon Nchukwi has more high-level experience but tends to back up and slow down under pressure. He believes Murzakanov's forward pressure and wrestling will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to win by first-round TKO. He notes Murzakanov is very well-rounded with heavy hands and a solid top game, but has cardio concerns since he's never been to a third round. He thinks Murzakanov can hurt Nchukwi on the feet or take him down and finish him, referencing Nchukwi's poor get-up game against Jung Park. However, he won't bet the fight due to the cardio and low-output risks.
Cody is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.
Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, stating that he is a little more experienced, smarter, and more comfortable in the cage. He thinks Murzakanov will point-fight for three rounds or possibly find a finish. Levi acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi's power and potential but believes Murzakanov's experience and fewer mistakes will be the difference.
Murzakanov is a fast, agile striker with good cardio and takedown ability. He can close distance quickly and has power in both hands. Nchukwi has speed and cardio issues, and may overextend. Murzakanov is expected to outwork Nchukwi over 15 minutes or finish late, with a decision at plus 320 being a value play.
Paul is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.
The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov over Tafon Nchukwi, citing his nasty hands and power advantage. He notes that Murzakanov has laid opponents out cold and has grappling to fall back on, referencing a video of him beating Ion Cuțelaba in a grappling competition. He predicts a first-round TKO, trusting Murzakanov's physicality and technique despite Nchukwi having good stand-up of his own.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 0 | 71 of 145 | 48% | 79 of 155 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 58 of 136 | 42% | 64 of 144 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 32 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 24 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 33 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 71 of 145 | 48% | 61 of 134 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 48 of 117 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 25 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 58 of 136 | 42% | 20 of 83 | 25 of 33 | 13 of 20 | 51 of 127 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 30 of 69 | 43% | 24 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 30 of 69 | 43% | 9 of 39 | 13 of 16 | 8 of 14 | 25 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 16 of 35 | 45% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 21 of 43 | 48% | 9 of 28 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 25 of 41 | 60% | 24 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 25 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 7 of 24 | 29% | 2 of 16 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady likes Park's durability and chin, noting he has never been knocked out. He thinks Park will mix in takedowns to wear out Nchukwi, who may have cardio issues despite a good gas tank in his last fight. Brady is concerned about Nchukwi's striking defense after being hit by Pickett. He calls it a close fight that can go either way but leans Park by decision. He explicitly says no bet for him.
Daniel Levi picks Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that African power can make up for experience and technique. He notes Nchukwi's good technique, cardio, and ability to go the distance as seen in the Pickett fight. He believes Nchukwi's takedown defense and get-up game will neutralize Park's wrestling, and that Nchukwi will outstrike Park. He respects Park but thinks Nchukwi is the better athlete.
The host favors JunYong Park as a live underdog, citing his durability, cardio, and ability to push the pace. He believes Nchukwi is one-dimensional and will struggle if he doesn't get an early knockout. He likes the over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision, and Park by decision props.
The MMA Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi over JunYong Park, acknowledging it's a tough fight to predict. He thinks Nchukwi's size and strength will allow him to stop Park's takedowns and win by decision, possibly 30-27. He notes Nchukwi showed he can go three rounds in his last fight, which alleviates cardio concerns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 120 of 187 | 64% | 159 of 234 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 40 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 41 of 69 | 59% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 44 of 60 | 73% | 62 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tafon Nchukwi | 120 of 187 | 64% | 70 of 133 | 49 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 59 of 118 | 57 of 63 | 4 of 6 |
| Jamie Pickett | 40 of 81 | 49% | 28 of 68 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 39 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tafon Nchukwi | 35 of 58 | 60% | 22 of 44 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 41 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tafon Nchukwi | 41 of 69 | 59% | 19 of 45 | 22 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 41 | 25 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 25 of 43 | 58% | 15 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tafon Nchukwi | 44 of 60 | 73% | 29 of 44 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 36 | 17 of 18 | 4 of 6 |
| Jamie Pickett | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi over Jamie Pickett, noting Nchukwi's power and takedown defense (stuffed all takedowns seen on tape). He believes Pickett has no path to victory, as he cannot take Nchukwi down and will likely get knocked out. Brady predicts a first-round KO, though he notes Nchukwi's low output and the weight cut to 185 as potential concerns.
The host is confident in Nchukwi, citing his power, combinations, and high guard. He notes Pickett's tall-man defense and cardio issues. He predicts a first or second-round KO for Nchukwi and considers him a safe parlay piece, but advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Nchukwi's weight cut.
The Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi, believing he is a massive favorite. He notes Nchukwi's youth and improvement, and that he knocked out William Knight. He criticizes Jamie Pickett's level of competition and says Pickett is moving up in weight. He predicts a brutal first-round KO for Nchukwi.
Jamie Pickett - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 83 of 147 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 10:08 |
| Jamie Pickett | 1 | 20 of 55 | 36% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eryk Anders | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 20 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Jamie Pickett | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Eryk Anders | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Eryk Anders | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 30 of 56 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eryk Anders | 23 of 59 | 38% | 14 of 48 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 12 |
| Jamie Pickett | 20 of 55 | 36% | 11 of 45 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 46 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eryk Anders | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Eryk Anders | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Jamie Pickett | 11 of 24 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Eryk Anders | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 |
| Jamie Pickett | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Eryk Anders, citing his athleticism, durability, and ability to bully his way to a win. He notes Anders is a large favorite at -330, which is too wide for him, but he expects Anders to win. He suggests there might be value on inside the distance props.
Big Brady picks Anders, calling it a cage-pushing fight. He notes Anders has higher volume, more power, and is physically stronger. He expects Anders to push Pickett against the cage and take him down, similar to his 24-takedown-attempt fight. He predicts a greasy decision win for Anders.
Cody picks Anders, calling him a gatekeeper who beats lower-level opponents like Pickett. He notes Pickett's terrible output and lack of finishing ability, and that Anders has been competitive with better fighters. Cody believes Anders will win but calls it a bad bet at minus-500, though he admits he'll include Anders in parlays as a degenerate.
Anders should be able to force the action, push Pickett against the cage, and land takedowns. However, Anders is 36 and slowing down, and -400 is not a number to trust with him. The fight is expected to be closely competitive and go to the scorecards, with Anders likely getting his hand raised. The host prefers the over or fight goes to decision.
Paul picks Anders but is hesitant due to the minus-500 price. He notes Anders has been inconsistent but has faced better competition and has shown improved cardio and output recently. He thinks Pickett is on a losing streak and lacks volume or power. Paul expects Anders to win but acknowledges the price is steep and that Pickett could make it close.
The MMA Guru initially considered Pickett but decided Anders is the pick. He notes Anders was close with Marc-André Barriault and had a scrap, while Pickett is on a four-fight losing streak and has no impressive wins. He calls Pickett 'awful' and says his wins are unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 31 of 80 | 38% | 59 of 109 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 7:15 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 14 of 52 | 26% | 26 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:53 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fremd | 31 of 80 | 38% | 11 of 49 | 10 of 18 | 10 of 13 | 22 of 64 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 5 |
| Jamie Pickett | 14 of 52 | 26% | 4 of 31 | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 45 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Fremd | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 4 of 18 | 22% | 0 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Fremd | 13 of 31 | 41% | 7 of 20 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Fremd | 7 of 20 | 35% | 2 of 12 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 19 | 26% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fremd, citing his improving grappling and athleticism. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy and has poor takedown defense. He expects Fremd to wrestle and grind out a win.
Big Brady picks Josh Fremd to win by submission in the second round. He believes Fremd has Pickett covered in every aspect, noting Pickett's three-fight skid and poor durability. He mentions Fremd's power and submission game, and says Fremd can win by decision, knockout, or submission. He is not laying -325 but is confident Fremd gets it done.
Cody picks Fremd, citing his wrestling background, cardio, and improvement. He notes Fremd's competitive fight against Fluffy Hernandez and his submission win over Cedric Dumas. He criticizes Pickett's three-fight losing streak and lack of UFC-level skills. He thinks Fremd's wrestling and grappling advantage will be too much, and that Pickett's job is on the line but he doesn't see a path to victory.
James picks Fremd but is not confident, calling it a 'bad fight' and not his type. He thinks Fremd should win but notes Pickett is tough, long, and strong in the clinch. He believes the line at -350 is too wide and should be around -250. He likely won't bet it.
Fremd showed a relentless wrestling style in his last fight, but he is a heavy favorite at -350 against a guy on a three-fight losing streak. Pickett relies on physical traits but is not great technically. Fremd's wrestling and pace should be too much, but trusting him at such a short price is risky given his limited sample size. Fremd should grind out a decision.
Paul picks Fremd, agreeing that Pickett doesn't belong in the UFC. He notes Fremd's submission skills and ability to get dominant positions. He thinks Fremd will likely win by submission. He considered Pickett at plus money but after digging, concluded Pickett is just not good enough.
The MMA Guru picks Josh Fremd over Jamie Pickett, noting Fremd's losses to Anthony Hernandez (who is doing that to everyone) and Tresean Gore (a nasty guillotine). He believes Fremd is more well-rounded with grappling and striking, and that Pickett tends to fade in fights. He thinks Fremd's potential and size advantage will lead to a win, possibly ending Pickett's UFC career.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1400), Pickett (+850)
Round 1
The main card of UFC 285 begins with the hotly anticipated debut of elite college wrestler Nickal (3-0, 0-0 UFC), who is entering only his fourth pro fight with a combined two minutes and 27 seconds of fight time under his belt not counting his amateur outings. He meets Pickett (13-8, 2-4 UFC), whose last trip to the cage lasted nearly 10 minutes, or nearly twice much time as Nickal’s pro and amateur career combined. Nickal comes in as a nonsensical favorite of -2000 or above in some books, and referee Keith Peterson will be the one to clock them in despite that nonsense. The middleweights do not touch gloves, as they would rather get right to it. Nickal leaps forward, jumps in the air with a kick that misses, and he hits the floor. Nickal shoots for a takedown, and Pickett stuffs it on the first try. Nickal shoves him against the wall and knees him a few times, and Pickett grimaces from an apparent knee to the groin. The foul uncalled, Nickal throws his man to his knees, and searches for a possible brabo choke, only to release it to circle around and take the back. Nickal grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and he changes it to a neck crank but lets it go to look for another opening. Nickal jumps to the side, and he wraps his left arm beneath Pickett’s chin and squeezes with an arm-triangle choke. Pickett talks to Nickal the whole time while the submission is being attempted, and Pickett is able to survive the first strong squeeze. Pickett defends with his left arm between the neck and the choke, and Nickal adjusts and fastens it tighter. Pickett stays composed and calm as Nickal keeps squeezing, and Pickett pushes off the hip and stays with it. The wrestler keeps the vice-like grip as tight as can be, and he forces Pickett to finally surrender, thereby boosting his young record to 4-0 with four finishes on his ledger. Nickal has made good on his promotional debut, and the next question will soon be what the UFC does with him next with all the hype surrounding him. The victorious Nickal claims in his post-fight interview that he will be not only the champion, but the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Jamie Pickett R1 2:54 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo is certain Bo Nickal will win, stating he will wrestle immediately and finish the fight. He notes that the odds are extremely high and there is no value, but Nickal is the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport. Angelo advises against betting due to the poor odds.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling him a next-level wrestler with power and submission ability. He notes Jamie Pickett has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission for Nickal, welcoming him to the UFC.
Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance, likely by submission. He thinks Nickal will overwhelm Pickett early and finish him in the first round. He recommends under 1.5 rounds and says Nickal ends up on parlay tickets.
Connor is extremely confident Nickal wins, calling it a soft touch. He notes Pickett is a good athlete but easily cowed by superior athletes, with poor body language and a tendency to crumble. He expects Nickal to finish via TKO or submission, though Pickett may avoid submission briefly.
Jacob agrees that Bo Nickal will win, but questions whether Nickal will go for a quick takedown or try to show off his striking. He notes that Jamie Pickett folds under pressure and that this matchup was made for a reason. Jacob sees no value in betting on Nickal at these odds.
Nickal is a decorated wrestler with good submissions. Pickett is on a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job. Nickal will get a takedown and submit him in the first round. Look for early finishing props.
Paul agrees Nickal will win easily but notes the odds are too short to bet the moneyline. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced and considers a small sprinkle on the over as a contrarian play, but ultimately expects a quick finish.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission, likely a rear-naked choke. He criticizes Pickett's lack of quality wins and believes Nickal's wrestling will be too much.
Zane agrees, calling Pickett a 'gentle giant' who crumbles under pressure. He notes Pickett was submitted by Kyle Daukaus and TKO'd by Jordan Wright, so a finish is probable. He sees no path for Pickett.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Tiuliulin | 2 | 73 of 161 | 45% | 87 of 178 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 60 of 111 | 54% | 63 of 114 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denis Tiuliulin | 0 | 22 of 76 | 28% | 28 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 37 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Denis Tiuliulin | 2 | 51 of 85 | 60% | 59 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Tiuliulin | 73 of 161 | 45% | 53 of 131 | 19 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 52 of 133 | 15 of 15 | 6 of 13 |
| Jamie Pickett | 60 of 111 | 54% | 44 of 90 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 56 of 103 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denis Tiuliulin | 22 of 76 | 28% | 16 of 64 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 35 of 60 | 58% | 23 of 46 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Denis Tiuliulin | 51 of 85 | 60% | 37 of 67 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 30 of 57 | 15 of 15 | 6 of 13 |
| Jamie Pickett | 25 of 51 | 49% | 21 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his takedowns and ability to win via grappling. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy, while Tiuliulin is a brawler with power. He thinks if Pickett manages range and uses takedowns, he can win, but it's a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, criticizing Jamie Pickett for being inactive and fighting not to lose. He was impressed by Tiuliulin's debut against a tough prospect and believes Tiuliulin can stuff takedowns and land a big shot. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he expects the fight to be terrible overall.
Cody leans towards Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, noting that Jamie Pickett is not a great wrestler and that Tiuliulin has power and durability. He mentions that Pickett's takedown defense is not elite and that Tiuliulin can hold his own on the feet. He is not betting it but picks Tiuliulin for the show.
Daniel Levi picks Denis Tiuliulin for the upset. He notes Tiuliulin's knockout power and long striking, while Pickett has been finished before. He acknowledges Pickett's physical advantages and takedown ability, but believes if Tiuliulin can avoid being taken down, he can light up Pickett on the feet. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
Jacob strongly disagrees, picking Denis Tiuliulin. He thinks Pickett does not belong in the UFC, is gun-shy, and has telegraphed takedowns. He praises Tiuliulin's striking, power, and toughness, noting he landed clean shots against a dominant wrestler on short notice. He believes Tiuliulin will march forward and find a finish.
The host leans Jamie Pickett but can't back him at -130. He expects Pickett to use his physical attributes to overpower Tiuliulin in the clinch and grind out a decision. He notes Tiuliulin's power but thinks Pickett's durability and bullying style will prevail.
Paul leans towards Jamie Pickett, noting that Tiuliulin has poor takedown defense and cardio, which are Pickett's strengths. He believes Pickett will use his wrestling to lean on Tiuliulin and tire him out. However, he is not confident and says it's a dog or pass fight.
The MMA Guru picks Denis Tiuliulin to win by TKO in the first round. He describes both fighters playing at range early, with Tiuliulin looking for body kicks. Pickett will time punches when Tiuliulin kicks, but as he rushes in, Tiuliulin lands a big shot over the top, rocks Pickett, and finishes with body shots and big shots against the cage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 19 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 19 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Receiving an upgrade to the co-main event slot, Daukaus (10-2, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) and Pickett (13-6, 2-2 UFC) will handle their business at a pre-planned 195-pound catchweight due to the latter taking the fight on short notice. This fun stylistic clash will draw officiating from referee Herb Dean, and the fighters gladly touch gloves as they are happy to be fighting tonight. Pickett strikes first with few low kicks, and Daukaus replies in kind. Right after Daukaus wings a right hand, he changes levels to go after a takedown. Although Pickett stays upright on the first attempt, Daukaus sucks his legs out beneath him and drags him down. From his back, “The Nightwolf” holds on to a guillotine choke, and Daukaus wisely comes around with his own shoulder to set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Pickett lets go of his arm grip so that he does not himself get submitted, and instead sits up and turns on his hip to try to stand back up. Daukaus keeps his man trapped beneath him, smacking him in the face with a few right hands, but Pickett explodes out of the position and powers back to his feet. Pickett tries to let his hands go when he gets upright, only to find Daukaus right on him to go hunting for a single. The Philadelphia native successfully lifts Pickett’s leg all the way up in the air before slamming him to the mat, and he is quick to secure half guard. When Pickett sits up and turns like before, Daukaus times this to try to take his back. Pickett simply stands up from this position, and he shucks Daukaus off of his back. Daukaus does not let up, remaining tied to Pickett until he lets go of his own accord. Out of nowhere, Daukaus drills Pickett with a few punches square on the chin, and when Pickett is shaken up, Daukaus leaps forward to snag another takedown.
Pickett falls to his back, and when he rolls to his side, Daukaus quickly attacks with a sneaky brabo choke from a difficult angle. In half guard, Daukaus keeps the choke snaked around Pickett’s neck and it is tight. With no way to get out, Pickett wriggles his arm free so that he can tap out on Daukaus’ side barely one second before the horn blares.
There is a bit of confusion as to the timing of the stoppage, or whether Pickett reached the end of the round, but it appears that he tapped out just before the bell. What a way to win a fight!
The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Jamie Pickett R1 4:59 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his recent performance against Joseph Holmes where he showed volume and mixed in takedowns. He notes that if Pickett fights aggressively and uses takedowns, he beats Daukaus almost every time. However, he acknowledges Pickett's gun-shy tendencies could be a problem.
Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting Pickett has low output and has been outgrappled by lesser fighters. He believes Daukaus has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a submission in the first or second round.
Cody picks Kyle Daukaus, citing his well-rounded skill set and superior grappling. He notes that Daukaus has shown good moments in his UFC fights, including a strong performance against Kevin Holland that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental headbutt. Cody believes Daukaus will have faster hand speed and should be able to take the fight to the mat, where he has a sizable advantage. He also mentions that Jamie Pickett's game is not well-rounded and relies on smothering opponents against the cage.
Levi leans toward Daukaus but thinks the line is too wide, suggesting it should be around -175. He acknowledges Pickett's momentum and confidence from two wins, but notes Pickett's wins were over lower-level opponents. Levi expects Daukaus to win a close decision, possibly an ugly fight, and mentions Daukaus should finish but might not.
Daukaus is better everywhere: clinch, grappling, and developing striking. Pickett has physical tools but lacks output and fight IQ. Daukaus should control the fight with takedowns and either submit or decision Pickett. The sub/decision combo at -165 is a great line. A knockout is unlikely, so the method is between submission and decision.
Paul picks Daukaus, noting that Pickett is low-volume and doesn't use his long reach well. He thinks Daukaus's path to victory is to take the fight to the mat, where he should have a clear advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pickett could spam clinches, but overall he sees Daukaus as a rightful favorite at -250.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by 29-28 decision in a clinch-heavy fight. He believes Daukaus has better technique on the feet and superior jiu-jitsu, and can neutralize Pickett's cage-grappling game. He notes Daukaus has a good chin and has never been finished as a pro, so Pickett's power is less of a threat. He expects a boring clinch fest with Daukaus edging out the rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 50 of 122 | 40% | 54 of 126 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Joseph Holmes | 0 | 51 of 93 | 54% | 59 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Pickett | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Joseph Holmes | 0 | 24 of 35 | 68% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Jamie Pickett | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 24 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Joseph Holmes | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 3 | Jamie Pickett | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Joseph Holmes | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Pickett | 50 of 122 | 40% | 22 of 86 | 19 of 24 | 9 of 12 | 40 of 108 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Joseph Holmes | 51 of 93 | 54% | 30 of 65 | 13 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 82 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Pickett | 10 of 23 | 43% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joseph Holmes | 24 of 35 | 68% | 13 of 21 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 28 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamie Pickett | 23 of 55 | 41% | 12 of 42 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 50 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Joseph Holmes | 13 of 27 | 48% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Pickett | 17 of 44 | 38% | 6 of 29 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 36 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Joseph Holmes | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Pickett due to UFC experience, but worries about Holmes' equal size and grappling threat. He notes Pickett's reach advantage is neutralized and that both can be gun-shy. He calls it a razor-thin pick and says he won't bet on it.
Big Brady thinks the odds are off, as Joseph Holmes is inexperienced and has fought low-level competition, while Jamie Pickett has faced UFC-caliber fighters. He calls it a coin flip and says he would not bet it, but if forced to pick, he takes Pickett as a dog by decision. He notes both fighters have similar skill sets and low volume.
Cody leans toward Holmes, citing his length and reach advantage. He notes Holmes's camp (James Krause) will have a good game plan. He expects Holmes to use his range striking and avoid grappling. However, he admits Holmes looked green and the fight could go either way.
Daniel Levi leans toward Joseph Holmes, citing his physical advantages (6'4", 80-inch reach) and finishing ability (submission and KO). He notes that Pickett has folded under pressure in the past, losing by first-round finishes to Charles Byrd and Jordan Wright. Levi is hesitant because Holmes hasn't been tested at UFC level, but he believes Holmes will outwork Pickett in a close fight. He also mentions Pickett's mental struggles and that he's seeing a therapist.
The host leans toward Joseph Holmes, expecting him to dictate the pace with clinch work and takedowns against the cage. He notes Pickett's durability but thinks Holmes' aggression and control will win rounds. The host is not confident in a finish, predicting a decision. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a possible bet due to both fighters' low finishing rates.
Paul leans toward Pickett as an underdog, citing his experience and durability. He notes Holmes is very green and his striking is telegraphed. He expects Pickett's strength in the clinch to be a factor. However, he acknowledges Holmes's length and potential if he keeps the fight at range.
The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Holmes' Muay Thai background, range, power, and accuracy on the feet, and notes that Holmes already beat Pickett on the regional scene by first-round destruction. He doesn't see Pickett's grappling as a threat, as Holmes is rangier and better at controlling distance. He expects Holmes to land a clean shot early and finish the fight quickly, similar to how Jordan Wright did.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 47 of 96 | 48% | 58 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 43 of 80 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 5:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Pickett | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 2 | Jamie Pickett | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 26 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 | |
| 3 | Jamie Pickett | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Pickett | 47 of 96 | 48% | 23 of 64 | 23 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 26 of 72 | 21 of 23 | 0 of 1 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 25 of 62 | 40% | 14 of 48 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Pickett | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 7 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamie Pickett | 18 of 35 | 51% | 9 of 22 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 11 of 21 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Pickett | 19 of 43 | 44% | 12 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Laureano Staropoli | 10 of 34 | 29% | 6 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is surprised Pickett is such a big underdog. He notes Pickett has a foot reach advantage and manages range well, and can mix in takedowns. He thinks Staropoli gets gun shy and is hit twice as much as he hits. He already grabbed a +3.5 bet on Pickett, meaning he only needs Pickett to win one round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight (over 73.5 combined strikes).
Big Brady picks Staropoli as the more talented fighter despite a three-fight skid, noting his losses came against tough competition. He worries about Staropoli's size disadvantage and Pickett's 8.5-inch reach advantage, but believes Staropoli's skill edge will carry him to a close decision. He advises against betting this fight.
Cody picks Laureano Staropoli, citing his volume, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Pickett has poor striking defense, moves backward, and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Cody believes Staropoli will win the numbers battle and likely take a decision, though he acknowledges the price is high. He sees Staropoli as a lower-tier parlay piece.
Lock leans Staropoli based on competition level. He notes Pickett is not UFC level and Staropoli has fought better opponents. He expects Staropoli to win by decision but is not confident enough to bet heavily.
Paul leans towards Staropoli, noting that Pickett's best attribute was his durability, but that was shattered in his last fight. He agrees with Cody that Staropoli's forward pressure and volume should win the fight. However, Paul is not fully confident due to the price.
The MMA Guru picks Laureano Staropoli, noting that Staropoli is moving up to middleweight but is naturally a welterweight, which he believes makes him better than most middleweights. He points out that Jamie Pickett is coming off a KO loss and lacks quality wins, while Staropoli has faced tougher competition and is more technically sound. He predicts Staropoli will out-grapple Pickett and win by unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wright | 1 | 26 of 32 | 81% | 33 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Wright | 1 | 26 of 32 | 81% | 33 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wright | 26 of 32 | 81% | 21 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 9 of 14 |
| Jamie Pickett | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Wright | 26 of 32 | 81% | 21 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 9 of 14 |
| Jamie Pickett | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Pickett is durable, never knocked out, and has a solid chin. Wright has terrible striking defense (40%), no chin, and has never been to decision. Pickett can pressure forward, land hard shots, and has good wrestling. I expect Pickett to finish Wright in the second round by knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Jamie Pickett, citing his physicality, speed, and strength advantage. He notes that Jordan Wright (Beverly Hills Ninja) has a suspect chin, as seen in the Anthony Hernandez fight, and was steamrolled by Joaquin Buckley. Levi thinks Pickett can knock out Wright or win by decision, and calls this Pickett's best chance to get a UFC win.
The host picks Pickett but wants no part of betting the fight. He notes Pickett has shown durability, eating big shots from Soriano and Chukwu, while Wright has a questionable chin. He thinks Pickett lands a big shot and finishes Wright in the second round. However, he acknowledges both fighters are low level and that Wright could win if he lands early.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Pickett to win by TKO in round 2. He notes that Jordan Wright has spectacular finishes but against weak competition, and that Wright slows down after the first round. He believes Pickett can absorb Wright's early onslaught, as shown in his fight with Pannie Soriano, and then finish Wright late in the second round against the cage.
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi over Jamie Pickett, noting Nchukwi's power and takedown defense (stuffed all takedowns seen on tape). He believes Pickett has no path to victory, as he cannot take Nchukwi down and will likely get knocked out. Brady predicts a first-round KO, though he notes Nchukwi's low output and the weight cut to 185 as potential concerns.
The host is confident in Nchukwi, citing his power, combinations, and high guard. He notes Pickett's tall-man defense and cardio issues. He predicts a first or second-round KO for Nchukwi and considers him a safe parlay piece, but advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Nchukwi's weight cut.
The Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi, believing he is a massive favorite. He notes Nchukwi's youth and improvement, and that he knocked out William Knight. He criticizes Jamie Pickett's level of competition and says Pickett is moving up in weight. He predicts a brutal first-round KO for Nchukwi.
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