UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020 · Lightweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 42
Height 5' 11"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
3.48 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.95 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Paul Felder
3.7 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
LOSS vs Geoff Neal
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 72 of 141 51% 138 of 221 8 of 11 72% 0 0 12:01
Rafael dos Anjos 0 66 of 136 48% 94 of 170 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:30
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 37 45% 20 of 41 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:20
2 Vicente Luque 0 11 of 26 42% 32 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Rafael dos Anjos 0 10 of 22 45% 14 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 39 46% 27 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
4 Vicente Luque 0 10 of 18 55% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 15 60% 20 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
5 Vicente Luque 0 17 of 26 65% 33 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Rafael dos Anjos 0 19 of 35 54% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 72 of 141 51% 48 of 115 17 of 19 7 of 7 60 of 127 8 of 8 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 66 of 136 48% 42 of 108 19 of 23 5 of 5 38 of 105 26 of 27 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 16 of 32 50% 9 of 24 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 6 of 8 3 of 3 9 of 28 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 11 of 26 42% 7 of 22 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 10 of 22 45% 4 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Vicente Luque 18 of 39 46% 12 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 27 40% 8 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Vicente Luque 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Vicente Luque 17 of 26 65% 14 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 26 5 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.

Already bet moneyline at -125
"I have a money line on Rafael dos anos at minus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

third round knockout
"I'll say Vicente Luce uh touches the chin of RDA at some point I'll say third round knockout for Vicente Luce but again a very very sketchy fight overall"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.

"I gotta go with Vincente Luca and the plus money and again I think that kill Cliff FC will have him ready and he'll be working with Gilbert Burns"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.

James mentions Luque's brain surgery as a concern, but no specific prop bets or odds are stated.
"I'm on RDA here... I think that on the feet it's fairly close... RDA has the grappling to lean on when things get tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.

dos Anjos by decision
"I like those sanyos throughout this fight I think he does good enough work over 25 minutes to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.

"ever so slightly I'm gonna lean to Javier De Los Angeles who I think has the better cardio over the course of five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.

Finish in round three by D'Arce choke
"I'm gonna go with Vicente UK getting a finish maybe drops RDA in round three and dash choke finishes him"
Submission (neck crank) R2 3:20 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 29 48% 61 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 20 of 25 80% 36 of 41 4 of 6 66% 2 0 6:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 19 47% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bryan Barberena 0 16 of 20 80% 30 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 5 of 10 50% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 7 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 29 48% 6 of 18 4 of 6 4 of 5 10 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 20 of 25 80% 3 of 8 17 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 19 47% 1 of 9 4 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryan Barberena 16 of 20 80% 2 of 6 14 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 12
2 Rafael dos Anjos 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.

"RDA is going to be the pick I trust him to Grapple early I trust him to Grapple often and I think he's just gonna grind out another RDA style win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.

RDA wins by decision
"this is RDA all day... horrible horrible terrible magic for barbarian... RDA should win this fight really however he wants"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.

over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"Rafael dosano's top taken material I agree with you and your assessment of it I think he wins this pretty handily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.

RDA by decision; pass on betting due to price
"I'll pick our DIA to come out here and you know land some takedowns and win this decision but you know because of the price I'm out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.

dos Anjos by decision; parlay piece
"I think dos Anjos you know I'd call him a lock of the night essentially but you would never want to bet a minus 540 straight up like that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.

RDA inside the distance at +175; over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"I feel like this is a should be pretty dominant uh on the side of RDA who is still fighting some of the best fights of his career currently and uh Bam Bam gets hit a ton rarely ever finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.

dos Anjos by decision (30-27)
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos anjos here over Brian barbarina"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
KO (punches) R5 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 54 of 110 49% 90 of 162 2 of 16 12% 0 0 6:13
Rafael dos Anjos 1 64 of 159 40% 92 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 26 34% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 41 34% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 19 of 36 52% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 22 40% 13 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
4 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 41 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:48
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 27 44% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
5 Rafael Fiziev 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 54 of 110 49% 31 of 80 12 of 14 11 of 16 50 of 106 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 64 of 159 40% 32 of 102 27 of 52 5 of 5 62 of 155 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 26 34% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 41 34% 8 of 26 6 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 19 of 36 52% 10 of 26 7 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 44 38% 6 of 27 9 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 38 44% 7 of 26 8 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 23 65% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 27 44% 7 of 17 4 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Rafael Fiziev 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 9 44% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Already has a moneyline bet on Rafael dos Anjos at +170.
"I like rafael dosanos I already got a money line bet on him at plus 170."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

"i'm gonna pick rda here to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"gotta go with raphael physique so when you're looking at the odds of course it doesn't look you know great like uh you got minus 225 and raphael's eve versus more of a proven commodity in rafael sanyos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

"I have a bet on Johnson and I understand the value on our day like if you're seeing perceived value on RDA I'd absolutely agree with you which is why I'm not touching that fight but I still do think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"i just think it's uh the price is a little bit too wide and it's continuing to grow so it's like i feel like by the time we get to fight time i'm gonna probably end up with an rda …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

4-1 decision
"I've got to side with Rafael Fiziev here."
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 1 149 of 286 52% 179 of 318 5 of 15 33% 0 0 13:22
Renato Moicano 0 88 of 172 51% 99 of 185 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 34 64% 30 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:12
Renato Moicano 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 27 of 47 57% 32 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:44
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael dos Anjos 1 40 of 84 47% 52 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:05
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 42 52% 27 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Renato Moicano 0 12 of 22 54% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 38 of 79 48% 38 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Renato Moicano 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 149 of 286 52% 119 of 255 23 of 24 7 of 7 84 of 198 7 of 8 58 of 80
Renato Moicano 88 of 172 51% 77 of 158 8 of 11 3 of 3 81 of 164 7 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 34 64% 17 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 17 3 of 3 13 of 14
Renato Moicano 10 of 23 43% 6 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 19 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 27 of 47 57% 19 of 39 7 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
Renato Moicano 15 of 29 51% 12 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 40 of 84 47% 34 of 77 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 45 0 of 1 23 of 38
Renato Moicano 15 of 25 60% 14 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 21
Renato Moicano 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 1
5 Rafael dos Anjos 38 of 79 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 3 of 3 37 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
Renato Moicano 36 of 73 49% 33 of 67 3 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)

Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.

considering over on rounds, plus 5.5 bet on RDA
"my brain is saying i need to go with fiz i have but my heart is saying my gut is saying that rda is going to win i've got to follow the brain"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.

"i think uh i think rafael de san jose is the side"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.

"i actually will take henato mykano to come out here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.

RDA wins in round 4 (TKO), live betting opportunity on RDA if Moicano has early success
"i'm gonna call a finish for dos anos here i do think that he gets muy kano out of there let's call it round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.

"i think i am going to go with rda in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to go with raphael fizzyev second round ko early on in the second"
WIN vs Paul Felder
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 98 of 190 51% 134 of 226 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Paul Felder 0 92 of 162 56% 155 of 231 6 of 22 27% 0 0 14:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Paul Felder 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 29 of 46 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 27 of 47 57% 31 of 51 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Paul Felder 0 13 of 18 72% 28 of 35 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 26 of 55 47% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Paul Felder 0 19 of 41 46% 34 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:54
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 23 60% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 11 of 22 50% 35 of 47 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 98 of 190 51% 64 of 147 20 of 29 14 of 14 76 of 161 21 of 28 1 of 1
Paul Felder 92 of 162 56% 53 of 113 35 of 45 4 of 4 61 of 125 26 of 29 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 45 37% 8 of 33 5 of 8 4 of 4 16 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 22 of 34 64% 13 of 24 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 29 of 46 63% 23 of 38 3 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 38 7 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 27 of 47 57% 19 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 11 3 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 13 of 18 72% 7 of 10 5 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 26 of 55 47% 20 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 1 20 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
Paul Felder 19 of 41 46% 7 of 26 11 of 14 1 of 1 10 of 30 8 of 9 1 of 2
5 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 14 of 36 38% 23 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 51 17% 54 of 107 6 of 8 75% 0 0 10:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Michael Chiesa 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 7 of 34 20% 12 of 39 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:14
3 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 5 20% 40 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 14 of 36 38% 2 of 23 4 of 4 8 of 9 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 51 17% 6 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 8 of 24 33% 0 of 15 2 of 2 6 of 7 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 7 of 34 20% 5 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.

by decision
"I'll take RDA by my decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.

decision
"I'm going with michael Chiesa here especially because it's a free round fight I think he's gonna hold Rafael dos Anjos down for two rounds... michael Chiesa gets the job done"
Paul Felder - Fight History
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 98 of 190 51% 134 of 226 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Paul Felder 0 92 of 162 56% 155 of 231 6 of 22 27% 0 0 14:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Paul Felder 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 29 of 46 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 27 of 47 57% 31 of 51 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Paul Felder 0 13 of 18 72% 28 of 35 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 26 of 55 47% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Paul Felder 0 19 of 41 46% 34 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:54
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 23 60% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 11 of 22 50% 35 of 47 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 98 of 190 51% 64 of 147 20 of 29 14 of 14 76 of 161 21 of 28 1 of 1
Paul Felder 92 of 162 56% 53 of 113 35 of 45 4 of 4 61 of 125 26 of 29 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 45 37% 8 of 33 5 of 8 4 of 4 16 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 22 of 34 64% 13 of 24 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 29 of 46 63% 23 of 38 3 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 38 7 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 27 of 47 57% 19 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 11 3 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 13 of 18 72% 7 of 10 5 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 26 of 55 47% 20 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 1 20 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
Paul Felder 19 of 41 46% 7 of 26 11 of 14 1 of 1 10 of 30 8 of 9 1 of 2
5 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Feb 23, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 110 of 230 47% 119 of 243 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Paul Felder 0 122 of 221 55% 133 of 234 1 of 5 20% 0 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 16 of 42 38% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Paul Felder 0 24 of 46 52% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
2 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 48 54% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 26 of 43 60% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Dan Hooker 0 28 of 57 49% 28 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 39 of 63 61% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
4 Dan Hooker 0 25 of 47 53% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 15 of 36 41% 18 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:50
5 Dan Hooker 0 15 of 36 41% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 18 of 33 54% 24 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 110 of 230 47% 64 of 170 19 of 26 27 of 34 105 of 218 5 of 12 0 of 0
Paul Felder 122 of 221 55% 72 of 161 10 of 13 40 of 47 120 of 217 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 16 of 42 38% 5 of 25 6 of 9 5 of 8 15 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paul Felder 24 of 46 52% 7 of 25 2 of 2 15 of 19 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dan Hooker 26 of 48 54% 10 of 29 6 of 8 10 of 11 25 of 45 1 of 3 0 of 0
Paul Felder 26 of 43 60% 15 of 30 3 of 4 8 of 9 26 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dan Hooker 28 of 57 49% 14 of 39 7 of 8 7 of 10 27 of 51 1 of 6 0 of 0
Paul Felder 39 of 63 61% 29 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8 38 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Dan Hooker 25 of 47 53% 22 of 44 0 of 0 3 of 3 23 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 15 of 36 41% 8 of 29 2 of 2 5 of 5 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Dan Hooker 15 of 36 41% 13 of 33 0 of 1 2 of 2 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Felder 18 of 33 54% 13 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 6 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Paul Felder

Daniel Levi picks Paul Felder to win, citing Felder's durability (never knocked out), better technique throughout the fight, and ability to handle five rounds. He believes Felder's calf kicks and pressure will be key, and that Hooker's confidence from recent wins is overblown. Levi expects Felder to get a late knockout or win a decision, possibly 48-47.

"I just feel like Paul Felder is the better fighter, the tougher fighter, the fighter that's more durable for this war."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

The host picks Dan Hooker, believing he will win the first three rounds and possibly the fourth, though he worries about the new judging emphasis on later rounds. He cites Hooker's reach advantage, technical striking, and improvement, while noting Felder lacks power despite his size and has a one-dimensional game plan. He expects Hooker to use leg kicks, jabs, and body work to secure a unanimous decision.

unanimous decision
"I'm going with down hooker more versatile pool fellas got one game plan and if it doesn't work he's kind of [__] weighed forward and fro shots Dan hookers too technical for that"
WIN vs Edson Barboza
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 60 of 114 52% 77 of 133 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:50
Edson Barboza 0 56 of 154 36% 75 of 174 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 13 of 51 25% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Paul Felder 0 21 of 34 61% 37 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:29
Edson Barboza 0 20 of 46 43% 31 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
3 Paul Felder 0 15 of 26 57% 16 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Edson Barboza 0 23 of 57 40% 28 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 60 of 114 52% 27 of 74 19 of 24 14 of 16 55 of 109 0 of 0 5 of 5
Edson Barboza 56 of 154 36% 41 of 137 9 of 10 6 of 7 51 of 147 1 of 1 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 24 of 54 44% 10 of 35 7 of 11 7 of 8 24 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 13 of 51 25% 9 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Paul Felder 21 of 34 61% 10 of 21 6 of 7 5 of 6 16 of 29 0 of 0 5 of 5
Edson Barboza 20 of 46 43% 13 of 39 4 of 4 3 of 3 16 of 40 0 of 0 4 of 6
3 Paul Felder 15 of 26 57% 7 of 18 6 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 23 of 57 40% 19 of 52 3 of 3 1 of 2 23 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs James Vick
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 61 of 121 50% 69 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
James Vick 0 55 of 119 46% 70 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 22 of 49 44% 23 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
James Vick 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Paul Felder 0 19 of 31 61% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
James Vick 0 12 of 32 37% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Paul Felder 0 20 of 41 48% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
James Vick 0 23 of 40 57% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 61 of 121 50% 24 of 75 16 of 21 21 of 25 57 of 112 4 of 9 0 of 0
James Vick 55 of 119 46% 31 of 79 4 of 8 20 of 32 48 of 109 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 22 of 49 44% 9 of 34 5 of 6 8 of 9 22 of 47 0 of 2 0 of 0
James Vick 20 of 47 42% 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 11 18 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Paul Felder 19 of 31 61% 7 of 15 6 of 9 6 of 7 15 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0
James Vick 12 of 32 37% 7 of 20 2 of 5 3 of 7 10 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Paul Felder 20 of 41 48% 8 of 26 5 of 6 7 of 9 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Vick 23 of 40 57% 12 of 23 2 of 3 9 of 14 20 of 34 3 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Mike Perry
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 56 of 120 46% 64 of 128 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Paul Felder 0 62 of 110 56% 66 of 114 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 22 of 41 53% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Paul Felder 0 23 of 44 52% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Mike Perry 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 17 of 22 77% 18 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:41
3 Mike Perry 0 22 of 45 48% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 22 of 44 50% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 56 of 120 46% 27 of 79 16 of 24 13 of 17 48 of 110 7 of 9 1 of 1
Paul Felder 62 of 110 56% 34 of 78 15 of 18 13 of 14 42 of 86 17 of 21 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 22 of 41 53% 11 of 27 5 of 7 6 of 7 19 of 37 3 of 4 0 of 0
Paul Felder 23 of 44 52% 11 of 30 6 of 8 6 of 6 15 of 32 8 of 12 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 12 of 34 35% 6 of 20 2 of 7 4 of 7 11 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 17 of 22 77% 10 of 15 6 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 14 5 of 5 3 of 3
3 Mike Perry 22 of 45 48% 10 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 41 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 22 of 44 50% 13 of 33 3 of 4 6 of 7 18 of 40 4 of 4 0 of 0
TKO (elbows) R2 4:06 · UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Dec 02, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 6 of 13 46% 12 of 20 2 of 3 66% 2 1 2:51
Charles Oliveira 0 31 of 46 67% 37 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 10 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:17
Charles Oliveira 0 14 of 22 63% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
2 Paul Felder 0 1 of 4 25% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:34
Charles Oliveira 0 17 of 24 70% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 6 of 13 46% 3 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 2 2 of 6
Charles Oliveira 31 of 46 67% 26 of 40 4 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 4 4 of 4 26 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 5
Charles Oliveira 14 of 22 63% 12 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 18
2 Paul Felder 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 1
Charles Oliveira 17 of 24 70% 14 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 13 of 20
WIN vs Stevie Ray
KO (elbows) R1 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Jul 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:45
Stevie Ray 1 23 of 35 65% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:45
Stevie Ray 1 23 of 35 65% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 5 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 23 of 35 65% 14 of 24 7 of 9 2 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 10 12 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 5 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 23 of 35 65% 14 of 24 7 of 9 2 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 10 12 of 18
WIN vs Alex Ricci
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 4:44 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Feb 19, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 1 23 of 71 32% 23 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alex Ricci 0 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 1 23 of 71 32% 23 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alex Ricci 0 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 23 of 71 32% 14 of 57 4 of 7 5 of 7 23 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 4
Alex Ricci 21 of 59 35% 12 of 41 3 of 10 6 of 8 21 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 23 of 71 32% 14 of 57 4 of 7 5 of 7 23 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 4
Alex Ricci 21 of 59 35% 12 of 41 3 of 10 6 of 8 21 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."