Career Averages - Guram Kutateladze
Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot
Guram Kutateladze - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 2 | 79 of 149 | 53% | 79 of 149 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 1 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 3 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 1 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Kutateladze | 29 of 71 | 40% | 16 of 51 | 10 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 64 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 79 of 149 | 53% | 40 of 103 | 16 of 19 | 23 of 27 | 62 of 127 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guram Kutateladze | 7 of 21 | 33% | 3 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 26 of 50 | 52% | 14 of 34 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 10 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Guram Kutateladze | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 30 of 53 | 56% | 15 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 9 | 17 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | |
| 3 | Guram Kutateladze | 13 of 29 | 44% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kauê Fernandes | 23 of 46 | 50% | 11 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Kauê Fernandes as a 3-to-1 underdog, citing Guram Kutateladze's declining chin and recent struggles. He notes Guram was dropped in his last fight and is not the same prospect he once was. Angelo believes Kauê's forward pressure and power will be too much, though he is not betting the moneyline due to the long odds. He considers prop bets like inside distance or plus 3.5 rounds instead.
Brady sees Guram as a big favorite and expects him to take over as the fight goes on. He notes that Kauê has terrible cardio and takedown defense, so Guram can mix in takedowns and win minutes. Brady predicts a competitive early round but Guram pulling away and winning by decision.
The host believes Kutateladze's Muay Thai and wrestling will nullify most of Fernandes's offense, leading to a decision victory. He emphasizes Kutateladze's overall game and ability to control the fight.
The Guru leans towards Guram Kutateladze, citing him as the more well-rounded and technical fighter. He notes that Kauê Fernandes has a good finish over Muhammad Yaya but considers Yaya a low-level opponent. He believes Guram's recent loss to Elves Brener was competitive and that Guram was winning until he faded. He expects the fight to go to a decision or late finish, with Guram winning 2-1 on rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 30 of 68 | 44% | 87 of 152 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 1 | 34 of 85 | 40% | 81 of 139 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 1 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 22 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 49 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Kutateladze | 30 of 68 | 44% | 13 of 48 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 7 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 34 of 85 | 40% | 23 of 72 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 71 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guram Kutateladze | 3 of 13 | 23% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 17 of 39 | 43% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Guram Kutateladze | 19 of 42 | 45% | 6 of 27 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 15 of 39 | 38% | 8 of 31 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 31 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Guram Kutateladze | 8 of 13 | 61% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Jordan Vucenic | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Guram because he is the more technical striker with professional kickboxing experience, but notes ring rust after a year layoff. He thinks Guram will stay outside and be cautious, not looking for a finish. He hopes Guram is a heavy favorite so he can bet on Jordan Vucenic to win inside the distance (decision no action) as a plus-money prop.
Big Brady sees this as a big step up for Vucenic and a stylistic nightmare. He thinks Vucenic won't be able to take down Kutateladze or submit him, as Kutateladze is a great grappler himself. He expects Kutateladze to keep the fight standing and out-strike Vucenic over 15 minutes, winning by decision.
Cody picks Jordan Vucenic as an underdog, noting that Guram Kutateladze has cardio issues and tends to fade after the first round. He thinks Vucenic's durability and striking volume can carry him to a decision win. Cody also mentions that Vucenic is a Cage Warriors champion with good submissions and that Guram may not have improved much. He suggests live betting Vucenic after the first round.
Daniel picks Kutateladze, citing his size and UFC experience as key factors. He notes Vucenic is a featherweight moving up and questions whether he can out-duel Kutateladze physically. He views this as a last chance for Kutateladze to prove himself and thinks he will be slightly more physical.
Vucenic is taking this fight on short notice and moving up a weight class. Kutateladze's strength and overall game should overpower him, winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks Jordan Vucenic, noting that Guram has cardio issues and tends to blow his load early. He thinks Vucenic's striking and durability can allow him to take over in later rounds. Paul also mentions that Vucenic has good submissions and that Guram may not have improved. He acknowledges the short notice but notes that Vucenic stays close to fight weight.
The MMA Guru picks Guram Kutateladze over Jordan Vucenic, despite having hyped Vucenic. He notes Vucenic is making his UFC debut on short notice up a weight class, which is not ideal. He believes Kutateladze's power and size will be too much, and that Vucenic lacks the power to keep Kutateladze honest. He also mentions Vucenic's best work is at featherweight as a taller, rangier fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elves Brener | 0 | 85 of 163 | 52% | 99 of 177 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 1 | 65 of 132 | 49% | 93 of 165 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elves Brener | 0 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Elves Brener | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 41 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Elves Brener | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 1 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elves Brener | 85 of 163 | 52% | 49 of 114 | 28 of 40 | 8 of 9 | 54 of 122 | 25 of 30 | 6 of 11 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 65 of 132 | 49% | 42 of 101 | 15 of 18 | 8 of 13 | 53 of 112 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elves Brener | 30 of 48 | 62% | 17 of 30 | 10 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 30 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 2 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 9 of 22 | 40% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Elves Brener | 33 of 73 | 45% | 21 of 54 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 9 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 27 of 57 | 47% | 18 of 44 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 8 | |
| 3 | Elves Brener | 22 of 42 | 52% | 11 of 30 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 29 of 53 | 54% | 21 of 42 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze confidently, stating his striking is light years ahead and his takedown defense is some of the best in the division. He believes Elves Brener has no path to victory, as Guram won't get taken down or submitted. He thinks the line should be much higher, like -1100.
Big Brady picks Guram Kutateladze to win by second-round knockout. He sees a massive skill discrepancy, noting Kutateladze went competitive with Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov, while Brener's best attribute is grappling, which won't work against Kutateladze's takedown defense. He believes Kutateladze will land repeatedly and eventually finish Brener.
Cody thinks Kutateladze is a legitimate top-15 talent with strong wrestling and physicality. He notes Brenner's win over Zubaira Tukhugov was controversial (all media scored for Tukhugov) and that Tukhugov was an undersized featherweight. Cody expects Kutateladze to win by KO or decision, but acknowledges his injury history and short notice. He still picks Kutateladze.
Daniel confidently picks Kutateladze, citing his superior striking and power. He notes Brener has never been finished but expects Kutateladze to dominate, possibly by knockout or decision. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and submission threat but believes Kutateladze is on a different level, as reflected in the -600 line. He expects a clear win, though he leans decision.
Paul picks Kutateladze but notes the minus-700 price is hard to back. He mentions Kutateladze's layoff and injury issues, but believes his talent is far superior. Brenner's win over Tukhugov was controversial and Tukhugov was out of shape. Paul thinks Kutateladze should win, but it's risky at such short odds.
The Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, citing a massive stylistic mismatch for Elves Brener, who was preparing for Jordan Levitt's slow, non-athletic striking and wet blanket wrestling. He notes Kutateladze's speed and danger, and his impressive performance against Damir Ismagulov, which showed top-15 level. He predicts a TKO finish, as Kutateladze's striking will overwhelm Brener.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 79 of 192 | 41% | 83 of 197 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 78 of 187 | 41% | 80 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 30 of 65 | 46% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 23 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 79 of 192 | 41% | 63 of 173 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 76 of 184 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 78 of 187 | 41% | 29 of 129 | 28 of 33 | 21 of 25 | 64 of 170 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 21 of 57 | 36% | 17 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 26 of 63 | 41% | 13 of 44 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 8 | 20 of 55 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 30 of 65 | 46% | 22 of 55 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 23 of 58 | 39% | 7 of 40 | 10 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 28 of 70 | 40% | 24 of 66 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 66 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 29 of 66 | 43% | 9 of 45 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 24 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze, citing his powerful striking, kicks, and submission threats. He notes that even when taken down, Kutateladze is active on the ground and can work back up. He believes Kutateladze will frustrate Ismagulov both on feet and ground. He suggests betting on Kutateladze moneyline or safety net bets like 'wins inside distance decision no action' or plus 3.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, contingent on a good weight cut. He notes Ismagulov has excellent fight IQ, volume, and striking defense, while Kutateladze is powerful but low volume. He expects Ismagulov to be the minute winner on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He expresses concern about Ismagulov's weight cut and past eye issue.
Cody picks Ismagulov, citing his technical striking, excellent chin, and wrestling defense. He notes Kutateladze's cardio issues and two-year layoff, and believes Ismagulov will outpoint him over three rounds. He suggests Ismagulov by decision as a prop.
Daniel Levi is confident in Damir Ismagulov, praising his elite striking defense (1.9 strikes absorbed per minute), 100% takedown defense, and sharp boxing. He believes Ismagulov is a potential top-five talent and will outpoint Guram Kutateladze, who is tough but less polished. Levi notes Kutateladze's kicking game is dangerous, but thinks Ismagulov's fight IQ and experience will carry him to a unanimous decision. He is considering a bet on Ismagulov.
Paul picks Kutateladze as a dog, noting his training with Khamzat Chimaev and his power. He thinks Kutateladze can walk through Ismagulov's shots and land heavier strikes. He grabbed the line at +150 and believes the volume difference will be close, giving the edge to the Georgian.
The MMA Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, calling it risky. He notes Kutateladze is younger and more explosive, with good body kicks and skills off his back. He believes Damir Ismagulov has looked worse since his return, struggling against Rafael Alves. He thinks Kutateladze has a higher chance of a finish and will push the pace in later rounds, though he acknowledges Ismagulov is a good underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 52 of 126 | 41% | 69 of 151 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 1 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 43 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 25 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 18 of 52 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 1 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 26 of 56 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Kutateladze | 52 of 126 | 41% | 42 of 112 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 103 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 19 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 37 of 86 | 43% | 12 of 48 | 12 of 24 | 13 of 14 | 35 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guram Kutateladze | 15 of 32 | 46% | 13 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 11 of 20 | 55% | 1 of 6 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Guram Kutateladze | 16 of 45 | 35% | 12 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 15 of 37 | 40% | 6 of 24 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Guram Kutateladze | 21 of 49 | 42% | 17 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 18 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Gamrot as the more technical fighter with good striking defense and accuracy. He notes Kutateladze is dangerous but very hittable, and Gamrot's defense should keep him safe. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide given Kutateladze's danger.
The MMA Guru is very high on Mateusz Gamrot, citing his impressive resume in KSW against tough competition, including beating Norman Parke three times. He notes Gamrot's jiu-jitsu and grappling credentials, including competing with Gary Tonon. He expects Gamrot to win by TKO or submission in the second or third round.
Mateusz Gamrot - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 38 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 24 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 34 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 4 of 21 | 19% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 21 | 66% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.
Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.
Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.
Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.
The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.
James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.
Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.
Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.
Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 18 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:35 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 42 | 42% | 16 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 35 | 40% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.
James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.
Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.
Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 142 of 224 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 8:45 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 24 of 74 | 32% | 85 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 27 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 46 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 48 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 69 of 108 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 65 of 110 | 59% | 53 of 98 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 73 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 33 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 24 of 74 | 32% | 10 of 49 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 19 | 52% | 3 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 2 of 14 | 14% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 17 of 26 | 65% | 15 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 18 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 2 of 11 | 18% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 38 of 65 | 58% | 35 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 20 of 49 | 40% | 7 of 31 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his smooth striking, accuracy, and 90% takedown defense. He notes that Gamrot is chinny and gets dropped often, and that Klein will do damage on the feet while Gamrot holds on. He prefers a prop bet of 'inside the distance/decision no action' because Klein has finishing upside and Gamrot could win a takedown-heavy decision.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, noting this is a massive step down in competition for Gamrot compared to his recent fights. He expects Gamrot to wrestle for 15 minutes, using the small cage to his advantage. He worries about judges in a damage-over-control era but still believes Gamrot wins a decision.
Connor agrees with Zane that Gamrot is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Klein's tendency to be a back-foot, pot-shot striker will not work against Gamrot's pressure and wrestling. Connor also notes that Klein's wrestling, when he uses it, will only lead him into Gamrot's world, where Gamrot is superior. He compares the matchup to Klein's fight with Michael Trizano, where Klein was out-jabbed, and expects a similar outcome with Gamrot's wrestling being the difference.
Matt picks Ľudovít Klein as an underdog. He believes Klein's 91% takedown defense and power striking will neutralize Gamrot's wrestling. Klein lands damaging shots and should win the first two rounds, potentially pulling off the upset. Matt likes Klein by decision at +330.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, though he acknowledges Klein's danger. He believes Gamrot's size and grappling will be key, especially after getting hurt. He notes Klein's cardio issues and that Gamrot is world-class. He predicts Gamrot wins the later rounds, possibly by finish or decision.
Zane picks Gamrot because he believes Klein's style is a poor matchup for him. Klein tends to fight on the back foot, picking shots one at a time, and relies on either a wrestling advantage or a tempo advantage to win. Against Gamrot, who is a high-pressure wrestler with excellent grappling, Klein's wrestling will likely lead him into trouble. Zane also notes that Klein's recent opponents have been low-output, and Gamrot's pace and ability to wrestle will overwhelm him, similar to how Michael Trizano out-jabbed Klein.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 64 of 129 | 49% | 88 of 154 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:59 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 65 of 143 | 45% | 82 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 31 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 27 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 30 of 61 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 66 | 42% | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 64 of 129 | 49% | 56 of 119 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 97 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 30 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 65 of 143 | 45% | 41 of 111 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 119 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 26 of 54 | 48% | 22 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 24 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 20 of 43 | 46% | 9 of 28 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 11 of 17 | 64% | 8 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 17 of 34 | 50% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 27 of 58 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 66 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.
Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.
Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.
Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.
The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.
Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 111 of 163 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 40 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 28 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 43 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 57 of 102 | 55% | 48 of 90 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 78 | 46% | 24 of 61 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 67 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.
Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.
Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.
Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.
Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 32 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 16 of 40 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 16 of 27 | 59% | 4 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.
Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.
Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.
The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.
Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 29 of 42 | 69% | 89 of 109 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 60 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 29 of 42 | 69% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 |
| Jalin Turner | 40 of 97 | 41% | 23 of 72 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 90 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 14 | 64% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jalin Turner | 12 of 31 | 38% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 13 of 17 | 76% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jalin Turner | 18 of 48 | 37% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.
Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.
Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.
Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.
Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.
Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 1 | 59 of 130 | 45% | 67 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 38 of 86 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 13 of 17 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 31 of 67 | 46% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 1 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 59 of 130 | 45% | 35 of 100 | 15 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 52 of 121 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 33 of 81 | 40% | 22 of 67 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 76 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 9 of 26 | 34% | 2 of 16 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 13 | 69% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 31 of 67 | 46% | 19 of 53 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 15 of 47 | 31% | 9 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 19 of 37 | 51% | 14 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 21 | 42% | 5 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)
Round 1
Like every other main card tilt, this lightweight affair pitting Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC) against Gamrot (21-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has nearly immediate championship implications, as the victor could very likely be next in line for the winner of the headliner a few fights from now. Before they can look ahead, they have to get past the other, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Movahedi. The two bump fists, and after a few seconds to find their feet in the cage, Dariush slings a pair of quick kicks. Dariush rushes forward with a high kick, and Gamrot attacks for a takedown. A furious scramble ensues, and Gamrot lowers Dariush down but finds himself in leglock danger. Dariush attempts to sweep with this, but the two end up back on their feet. Gamrot pushes him to the wall, but he releases his foe and they reset. The right ear of Gamrot is split, and it starts to bleed, but he pays it no mind. Dariush attacks with a few low kicks, and Gamrot catches a body kick that follows and dumps Dariush to the mat. Dariush pursues a leglock as soon as they hit the ground, and he considers a heel hook but is on the wrong side without the right leverage to lock it down. “Gamer” pulls his leg out and stands up, and Dariush follows him. Gamrot stays tightly pressed to his opponent, before releasing him and backing off. An odd takedown entry allows Gamrot to get his hands on Dariush and drag the fight down, but Dariush defends with an awkward position to stop it. Dariush implores the referee to break them up, so Gamrot answers this by taking Dariush’s legs out beneath him. The Polish fighter cannot keep Dariush down, so he backs off and lets Dariush kick him in the side. On the kick, Gamrot grabs it, and he gives a shove but cannot ground Dariush this time. They trade kicks, and Gamrot slips on the way out before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Round 2
Sherdog encountered some technical difficulties at the beginning of this round, and we apologize for the inconvenience. We resume the action at the beginning of Round 2. The lightweights touch ‘em up, and Gamrot leans forward into a punch and has a strange reaction to it, but it could have been from a possible takedown setup. Gamrot resets and crashes forward for an authentic try, and Dariush tosses him aside and lets Gamrot get his footing again. Dariush kicks the body and gets punched in the head for his effort, and Gamrot counters another kick with an overhand right. Dariush pushes a jab out, and he sets up a high kick that glances off the shoulder. The lightweights clash legs at the same time, and Dariush walks forward to engage only to get sniped with a jab. Gamrot dives down to the ankle to take the fight down, and Dariush pulls his leg away and backs away. Dariush intercepts his opponent with a stern knee, and he targets the body with his shin as his legs continue to be his best weapon. A Gamrot takedown is stuffed, and Dariush makes him pay by chopping at his lead leg. The single strikes come back and forth, and Gamrot darts forward to throw a few in a bundle, but Dariush slips and rips with a left hand. The former KSW champ slowly moves forward without pulling the trigger, and he is forced to block a high kick that rolls off his shoulder. Dariush scoops up an uppercut and gets backed off with an overhand right, and Gamrot blitzes him with a knee. Gamrot sprints at his foe for one final takedown, and the scramble that ensues ends the round with both men on their seats.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 3
The top lightweights meet in the middle and offer half-hearted gloved touch that is more of a jab, and Gamrot claims the center of the cage. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown entry, but the veteran savvy of Dariush smoothly flows with the attempt and forces Gamrot to release his grip and stand back up. Dariush lets him have it with a flush kick to the body, and he lets go with a subsequent pair of kicks to the upper thigh. As Gamrot replies with a head kick try, Dariush pops him with a right hook. Gamrot comes up short with another high kick, and Dariush sees his strikes coming and is seemingly one step ahead of the offense. Dariush lifts up a knee that bounces off the midsection when Gamrot strides forward, and Gamrot continues to give chase no matter what he absorbs. The crowd appears distracted with the drama outside the cage, and they rain down a shower of boos not targeting the fighters but at that individual or individuals. As they are paying attention to something out of the cage, Gamrot leaps forward to snatch up Dariush’s lead leg and look for a takedown, but the attempt fails and Dariush gains his balance and hops away. Gamrot loops a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done when Dariush backpedals. Dariush prepares a left-hand counter for when Gamrot walks into his range, and he times a spectacular blow that knocks Gamrot clean off his feet. The recoverability of Gamrot is solid, as he somersaults back and gets right back into action following the flash knockdown. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Dariush smoothly follows him all the way through to get to his knees and back up without spending much time on his back. The fight comes to an end with one final exchange of alternating punches, and the lightweights hug it out after the bell sounds. It remains to be seen if the victor here has done enough to earn a crack at the triumphant man of the main event, a shot which also hinges on the result of that match itself.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot confidently, stating he is better everywhere than Dariush. He highlights Gamrot's wrestling, power, cardio, and pace, and notes that Dariush has been waiting for a title shot while Gamrot has been active. He has 2 units on Gamrot at -185 and expects the line to move.
Big Brady picks Gamrot to win by knockout in the second round. He questions Dariush's chin (three knockout losses) and believes Gamrot's volume and deceptive power will catch him. He expects the fight to play out mostly on the feet, with Gamrot dictating the range. He notes Dariush's striking is underrated but trusts Gamrot to land a finishing shot.
Cody thinks Gamrot is the pick, noting his wrestling pedigree and takedown defense. He believes Gamrot's pressure and pace will be key, and that Dariush may struggle with cardio. Cody acknowledges Dariush is a live underdog but feels Gamrot is getting more comfortable and should put on a clean performance. He is not super high on Gamrot this week because Dariush could spoil.
Connor picks Gamrot, citing his incredible pace and cardio, which he believes will wear down Dariush over three rounds. He notes that Dariush often gasses after going berserk, and Gamrot's ability to keep up high-intensity scrambles will exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Dariush could win early if he lands a big shot or imposes his grappling.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mateusz Gamrot. He praises Gamrot's unorthodox low single leg takedown and relentless pressure, noting he attempted 21 takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan. Levi is concerned about Dariush's recent broken ankle and whether he will be fully recovered. He thinks Dariush has the better striking, especially body kicks, but worries that Gamrot's wrestling and scrambling could overwhelm Dariush over three rounds. Levi does not bet this fight.
Gamrot has shown he can grapple with high-level fighters like Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush's reckless style may leave him open to counters. Gamrot is the cleaner striker and has cardio advantage. The under 2.5 at +160 or Gamrot inside the distance at +250 are intriguing. A one-unit shot on the under is the play.
Paul is torn but leans Gamrot, citing that wrestling may be negated in the big cage and that Gamrot has speed and grappling advantages. He mentions Dariush's chin issues from the past and that Gamrot's power could be a factor. Paul is not sure about betting but picks Gamrot.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. He questions the quality of Dariush's wins (e.g., Ferguson) and notes Dariush's long layoff due to a broken leg. He believes Gamrot's youth, momentum, and grappling will overwhelm Dariush, predicting a decision win with some dangerous moments.
Zane picks Dariush, arguing that Dariush's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight early will give him an edge. He notes that Dariush is a hell of a grappler and can match Gamrot's wrestling, and that Gamrot's takedowns don't lead to control. He admits it's a close fight and that Dariush's tendency to get hurt is a concern, but he thinks Dariush can win a decision or finish.
Expert Picks (2)
Big Brady picks Gamrot as the more technical fighter with good striking defense and accuracy. He notes Kutateladze is dangerous but very hittable, and Gamrot's defense should keep him safe. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide given Kutateladze's danger.
The MMA Guru is very high on Mateusz Gamrot, citing his impressive resume in KSW against tough competition, including beating Norman Parke three times. He notes Gamrot's jiu-jitsu and grappling credentials, including competing with Gary Tonon. He expects Gamrot to win by TKO or submission in the second or third round.
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