UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 6' 7"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 5"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alexander Volkov
4.78 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.86 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.57 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Greg Hardy
4.79 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.2 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Alexander Volkov - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 88 of 143 61% 88 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 54 of 130 41% 54 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 33 of 44 75% 33 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 88 of 143 61% 22 of 70 23 of 29 43 of 44 88 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 54 of 130 41% 30 of 91 6 of 13 18 of 26 53 of 129 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 33 of 44 75% 4 of 14 8 of 8 21 of 22 33 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 33 45% 7 of 21 2 of 4 6 of 8 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 34 of 56 60% 13 of 31 7 of 11 14 of 14 34 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 47 46% 8 of 29 3 of 6 11 of 12 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 21 of 43 48% 5 of 25 8 of 10 8 of 8 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 17 of 50 34% 15 of 41 1 of 3 1 of 6 16 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+150)

Round 1
Although the UFC’s heavyweight title picture is in flux with Tom Aspinall still recovering, Jon Jones suggesting that Elvis has left the building and Ciryl Gane battling Alex Pereira for the interim strap, this next one might end up serving as a de facto eliminator match. Volkov (39-11, 13-5 UFC) may have questionably come up on the wrong end of the scorecards in his rematch with Gane, and a win could propel him back to gold. Standing in his way will be surging former pitcher Cortes-Acosta (17-2, 10-2 UFC), who has won three straight. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the big men, standing back as they lumber towards one another without a glove touch in sight.
Volkov starts off with kicks to the lead leg and body. He alternates them while Cortes-Acosta tries to get a read on his way in. Volkov keeps pecking away with these distance-keeping kicks, and he takes a flush jab on the nose. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a right hand follow-up, but his low kick scores with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta chases after the Russian, coiling back his right hand to attack. Volkov keeps to his preferred range, bringing up a foot just short of the face and going right back to the front leg. Volkov lands a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta charges him behind four punches that largely careen off the raised guard. Cortes-Acosta again tries to swarm, but Volkov slips and clips him with a left hook while escaping.
Volkov peppers the midsection with his foot as fans chant his name, and he is in range for just one punch before strafing to the side. Volkov beats on the lead leg a few more times, doing so until Cortes-Acosta leans down to try to catch it. Cortes-Acosta does not get the leg, so he wings power punches that miss the mark. Volkov slams his shin in the body, and he is met with a jab and sees the overhand coming at him. Volkov pushes off the belly and spins away before absorbing anything of merit. Cortes-Acosta blitzes him and lands a left hand flush, and Volkov splits off and continues his decimation of the front leg. Volkov’s one-two misses, and Cortes-Acosta rallies with his own jab. Cortes-Acosta digs a left hand to the side, and his overhand right misses while Volkov is resetting. Volkov lands a few more kicks as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The heavyweights do not break their gaze when leaving their corners, and Volkov picks up where he left off with a slapping body kick. Cortes-Acosta smacks his side to draw more on, and he wings a right hand that buzzes the tower. Volkov ducks a monster punch to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta lashes out with an elbow that is an inch away from doing damage. Volkov works the inside of the front leg, and he stays planted too long and is clubbed with a right hand. Volkov circles off and plants a front kick on the stomach and another to the front leg. Volkov offers a high kick up and dances away from the counters he knows are coming, and he does not slow on working the front leg with his kicks. Cortes-Acosta kicks him back a few times, but the impact of the swings differs significantly. Volkov lances Cortes-Acosta with a one-two, moving to the side as he is more intent on breaking his foe down than outright knocking him flat.
The low kicks are starting to have an impact, with Cortes-Acosta tripping up on his way in. Cortes-Acosta lobs a bomb of a right hand, and Volkov shifts to the side. Cortes-Acosta points to the ground to try to initiate a brawl, angrily shouting at his opponent. Volkov welcomes this by blasting Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand that staggers him. Cortes-Acosta backs off and tries to lure his foe in, but Volkov is smart and just tags him on the outside. Volkov’s body kick gets through, and he leans away as Cortes-Acosta telegraphs his swings. He scores a low kick, and a frustrated Cortes-Acosta turns his hips into one coming back at him. Volkov flicks out a body kick and brushes Cortes-Acosta’s hair with his shin, catching a leaning Cortes-Acosta with a long right hand. A think trickle of blood leaks from the top of Volkov’s cheek, and he does not change his game plan one iota as he rips the body. Cortes-Acosta crashes at him with heavy punches, only to be jabbed back by the Russian. Volkov’s final inside low kick of the round draws a noteworthy reaction out of his opponent, with Cortes-Acosta limping back to lean on his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta is the aggressor to start the final frame, whether he is tied on the scorecards or down on them, it does not matter. He flicks a low kick at the Russian, slowly working his way to crowd forward. Volkov chambers and looses a kick to the ribs, and he goes upstairs and then to the sternum in rapid succession. Cortes-Acosta’s own counter kick does not land, and he gets his leg kicked out from beneath him when rushing forward. Cortes-Acosta lunges with his fingers outstretched and jams one in Volkov’s eye, and Beltran is about to have them play through it but calls time instead to let Volkov recover. When they resume, Cortes-Acosta is angry. The Dominican starts hurling bombs, and Volkov suddenly freezes him with a jab directly into the eye socket. Volkov’s nose is pouring blood out after absorbing a bomb or two, but Cortes-Acosta is the one who appears to be struggling more as Volkov pecks away at him. Volkov digs a kick to the body and leans as a right hand upstairs brushes past his hair. Cortes-Acosta loads up on big firepower, further bloodying up the Russian’s nose as he headhunts. Volkov stands in the pocket too long to absorb a flush uppercut, but his position allows him to jab out with a front kick that sucks some of the air out of Cortes-Acosta’s lungs.
Cortes-Acosta rushes forward for a takedown, and Volkov stonewalls him and shoves him to the fence. Cortes-Acosta breaks off with a knee to the body. Volkov backs off, breathing hard as he struggles to get any air through his bloodied nostrils, and he offers up a body kick. Volkov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta has his right hand coiled and ready to launch. Cortes-Acosta uses power jabs, targeting the beacon that is Volkov’s red and shiny nose. Volkov jabs him back, and he dodges a missile of a right hand by a whisker. Volkov pins a one-two on the nose and lands two low kicks, the second of which staggering Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta still goes out swinging furiously, and he tries to get one last brawl with seconds left. Volkov gets on his bike after jabbing and chopping at the front leg, and he stays out of range as time runs out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.

Angelo mentions Waldo is a dog and he likes a good amount of dogs on this card.
"I'm still picking him. He's a dog. I'm going to run with that. I think the athleticism is really going to be the difference here."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.

bet on Waldo at plus 160
"I'm picking Waldo here. I even bet on Waldo at plus 160."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.

"I'm leaning Volkov here. I'm going to take Volkov to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.

"I only got a handful of underdogs that I'm going to back on this card. And sadly, Waldo is one of them."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Connor says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.

"I just feel bad that I've counted this guy out so many times. He keeps proving me wrong. I feel like I got to pick him here. And now obviously Volkov's going to win as a result, but I'm gonna …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.

No bet. Mentions over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 as tempting but passes.
"I'm not going to touch this one from a betting point of view because I think if it does stay standing... this one will be razor close."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Alexander Volkov

Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.

Volkov by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.

"Volkov, I don't know if you heard me when he walked away, but he really lose striking matches. So, I got to go Volkov."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.

"I lean to the Alexander Volkov side in this fight. ... I got Vulov winning via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.

"I'll go Volkov and Volkov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.

Volkov by submission (plus 2000)
"I still like Volkov here. There's been some money coming in on Waldo. I understand Waldo's pretty fast on the feet."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.

"I am going to go with Alexander Vulov, but I love this matchup."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Zane says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 24 of 27 88% 123 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:57
Jailton Almeida 0 9 of 10 90% 27 of 33 7 of 9 77% 0 0 10:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 15 100% 38 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:14
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:38
2 Alexander Volkov 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jailton Almeida 0 4 of 5 80% 9 of 11 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:27
3 Alexander Volkov 0 7 of 8 87% 77 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 5 100% 17 of 21 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 24 of 27 88% 19 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 17
Jailton Almeida 9 of 10 90% 8 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 15 100% 15 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 15
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jailton Almeida 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Alexander Volkov 7 of 8 87% 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 5 of 5 100% 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)

Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.

"Jailton's wrestling at heavyweight is literally the best we have ever seen. ... I think he gets Volkov to the ground immediately. And I think he has him in trouble. I'm going to pick Jailton."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.

Almeida by first round submission
"I like Jailton here. I think he gets this fight down to the mat. I think he gets to a dominant position. I think he unloads with some ground and pound, and I think he eventually submits Alexander Volkov in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.

"I'm digging a little squeeze here. I'm digging a little squeeze. Can you be super confident? No, no. It's a middling heavyweight fight. But I got a path to victory here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to pick Volkov here. He just doesn't lose that many fights by getting submitted quickly. And I don't trust, uh, Almeida to just be able to easily positionally dominate him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.

wins by submission
"I'm going to pick Jelton Almeida to come out here, take down Alexander Volkov, submit him, and secure himself that UFC title shot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.

"I'm going to pick Alexander Volkov because I'm going to pick the value side, but I'm actually predicting Jolton to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Almeida will be able to chuck that off, get to his dominant positions, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.

"I agree with those the those sentiments. I mean, yeah, Jailton sub early is is definitely always on the table. Very good at getting those takedowns early. The cardio is falling off, especially when he really has to press."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.

Volkov by late rounds TKO; Volkov is an underdog
"I'm going to go with Alexander Volkov late rounds finish against Jailton Almeida."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.

"I'll pick Almeida. I'll pick Almeida. Oh, I'm checking it out. All right. Well, now, now, you know what this means. We're both going to be wrong."
LOSS vs Ciryl Gane
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 43 of 61 70% 48 of 66 2 of 4 50% 2 0 3:40
Alexander Volkov 0 39 of 71 54% 105 of 140 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 12 of 15 80% 17 of 20 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:38
Alexander Volkov 0 10 of 14 71% 12 of 18 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:34
2 Ciryl Gane 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Alexander Volkov 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Ciryl Gane 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Alexander Volkov 0 4 of 10 40% 68 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 43 of 61 70% 14 of 30 10 of 11 19 of 20 40 of 57 0 of 1 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 39 of 71 54% 19 of 46 18 of 20 2 of 5 36 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 12 of 15 80% 3 of 6 5 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 10 of 14 71% 2 of 5 7 of 7 1 of 2 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 27 of 39 69% 9 of 19 5 of 6 13 of 14 27 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 25 of 47 53% 14 of 32 10 of 12 1 of 3 23 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Ciryl Gane 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane, stating he will win the same way he did in their first fight: with superior footwork and technique. He notes Volkov hasn't shown improvements in striking or wrestling since then, and hasn't attempted a takedown in years. Gane's striking is elite, as shown in his 109-11 significant strike advantage over Sergey Pavlovich. The fight is only three rounds, favoring Gane.

"croan wins this fight the exact same way he won the first one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Gane, expecting a similar striking battle to their first fight. He notes Volkov's momentum but believes Gane's speed and Muay Thai will outpoint him. He suggests Gane by decision, as Volkov likely won't wrestle. He also mentions a YOLO bet on Volkov by submission at long odds.

Gane by decision; Volkov by submission (small bet)
"I think Gane, Gane by decision... I took a little bit of Volkov by submission at 22-to-1."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Connor states that Gane is simply better at the same game Volkov plays. He notes that Gane is faster, more fluid, and operates at the same range more efficiently. The first fight was a dominant win for Gane, and Connor sees no reason for a different outcome unless Volkov switches to wrestling, which he doubts will work.

Gane opened at -235, currently -342; Volkov opened at +202, currently +283. Connor thinks Gane should be a much heavier favorite.
"We saw this fight. He should be a massive favorite. He won it super easily."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Vreeland picks Ciryl Gane, stating that Volkov used to be much bigger or longer than his opponents, but that's not the case here. He notes Gane is better technically on the feet and can avoid getting hit, allowing him to pick Volkov apart and likely win a decision.

"um give me gone here um volov I it's actually what I said yesterday about uh the brand new brand fight volov used to be much bigger or at least longer than his opponent it's not really the case here …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel picks Gane based on his previous win and superior athleticism, but notes Volkov's hunger and recent resurgence. He mentions Gane's mental fragility in big fights and Volkov's four-fight win streak, making this a lean rather than confident pick.

"I'm a pick gone, I understand why someone would want to take the shot on Vulkov."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jeff Fox picks Alexander Volkov for the value, noting that Volkov has looked infinitely better in his last few fights and is clearly making improvements late in his career. He points to Volkov's dominant win over Pavlovich as evidence, and mentions Volkov's underrated wrestling and Ezekiel choke finish. Fox believes Volkov learns from his previous loss to Gane and will show a better version of himself, and that the fight was closer than the odds suggest.

"I'm going to mix it up I'm going to take the value on Alexander volov here there it is I I think and I'm not like super sold on volov here but like in his last few fights he's looked …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Lucrative James picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, expecting a repeat of their first fight. He highlights Gane's elite jab and in-fight adaptations as key. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard, with Gane outworking Volkov over five rounds. He doesn't see Volkov improving enough to change the outcome.

wins by decision, 49-46
"I think it's going to be a 4-1 decision I'll call 49 46 in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane will utilize his footwork, speed, and striking to get the better of Volkov once again, staying away from any grappling threat or power shots. Gane is still the better mixed martial artist and will win this fight on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting gone to utilize his footwork speed and striking to get the better of volov once again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Gane, citing his cleaner striking and speed advantage. He notes Volkov's wrestling ability but doubts he'll use it. He thinks Gane will win a decision in a three-round fight, as Volkov is content to stand and trade.

"I think Gane, Gane by decision... it'll be two heavyweights in a pure striking battle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Gane in the rematch, noting Volkov's improved standup but believing Gane can match his output and movement. He thinks Volkov cannot hurt Gane, while Gane has a better chance of hurting Volkov. He also cites Volkov's knee injury postponing the fight as a factor favoring Gane, especially in a low-kick battle.

"I'm G to go with sirel G in the rematch here volov could get it done I wasn't going to pick him the first time"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane echoes Connor, noting that Gane's speed and movement outclass Volkov. He points out that Volkov's game relies on range and size, but Gane is faster and can operate in the same range. Zane also mentions that Volkov would need to change his approach drastically to win, which is unlikely.

"Cyril Gane is simply better at the kind of game that Volkov has spent his whole career playing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 46 of 134 34% 46 of 134 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Sergei Pavlovich 0 83 of 159 52% 83 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 43 34% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sergei Pavlovich 0 26 of 50 52% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sergei Pavlovich 0 31 of 55 56% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 16 of 52 30% 16 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Sergei Pavlovich 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 46 of 134 34% 38 of 120 7 of 13 1 of 1 46 of 134 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 83 of 159 52% 35 of 89 16 of 28 32 of 42 83 of 159 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 43 34% 14 of 40 1 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 26 of 50 52% 9 of 25 6 of 10 11 of 15 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 15 of 39 38% 10 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 31 of 55 56% 9 of 24 6 of 12 16 of 19 31 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 16 of 52 30% 14 of 47 1 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 26 of 54 48% 17 of 40 4 of 6 5 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)

Round 1
The high-stakes, all-Russian, heavyweight co-main event kicks off, with Jason Herzog on referee duty. Volkov immediately goes to his front kick up the middle, trying to keep the shorter power puncher at bay. Pavlovich stalks, flicking out his long jab and looking for opportunities to spring into range on his towering foe. Pavlovich comes inside and is met by a hard jab, then lands on of his own. Volkov plants a kick on the liver, and ducks a vicious overhand counter. Volkov throws a jab to the body and Pavlovich comes back with a right high kick that lands on the shoulder. Under 90 seconds to go in the round, and everything is still tense, tentative; it feels as though either man might land a fight-ending blow at any moment. Volkov reaches out with a southpaw left cross and slips the counter. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
Volkov is again mobile, throwing single and double jabs while sliding around the outside of the cage. A huge overhand right from Pavlovich misses just short. Volkov switches stances freely, using kicks to disguise them. Pavlovich throws a high kick that bounces off Volkov’s shoulder as he turns. Pavlovich is stalking, trying to cut off the cage. He is bleeding from the bridge of the nose, thanks to the reliable jab and one-two of Volkov. Volkov reaches out with a slow kick that slaps off the arms, then retreats as Pavlovich surges forward with punches. Volkov throws his teep up the middle, the ball of his foot connecting with the midsection of Pavlovich. Pavlovich catches Volkov with a big right hand that causes him to stagger. Volkov seems to recover, however, moving laterally and avoiding any follow-up. Volkov connects with a standing hammerfist. Pavlovich continues to follow, but can’t land anything of consequence before the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
Round 3 opens as the first two did, with Volkov in southpaw, moving laterally around the outside as orthodox Pavlovich gives chase. The face of Pavlovich is showing the wear of two good rounds of patient, methodical jabs and crosses from his countryman. Pavlovich eats a jab and lunges in with a big right hand that doesn’t quite land squarely. Volkov sticks Pavlovich with a lead right hand and eats a three-piece combo in return. Volkov looks loose, throwing hard punches and willingly engaging, despite likely being ahead on the cards. His corner is audibly screaming at him. Halfway through the round, the pace has settled back down, and Pavlovich is plodding forward, walking right into the push kick and jab of Volkov. Pavlovich explodes forwards with a pair of punches that are mostly parried. Pavlovich dips and drives Volkov to the cage, perhaps looking for a takedown, but gives up on the attempt with 30 seconds to go. Pavlovich comes forward and punches the body, and catches Volkov cleanly on the shin at the 10-second clapper. Volkov eats it like a blini, returning fire with a head kick. The final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Sergei Pavlovich via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Volkov, citing his height, reach, experience, and well-rounded game. He thinks Volkov will slow the pace, lean on Pavlovic, and grind out a win. He notes Pavlovic is a powerful boxer but lacks cardio and wrestling. He believes the friendship between them will lead to a feeling-out process, making the over 1.5 rounds a good bet. He placed a bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money.

Bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money
"I think volov wins this fight I think the 6'7 kickboxer who also has highlevel MMA experience wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his devastating power and Volkov's admission that Pavlovich hurts him in sparring. He notes that if Volkov tries to wrestle, it's not his game, and striking with Pavlovich is dangerous. Brady expects Pavlovich to swarm and finish early.

win by first round knockout
"give me padovich first round knockout that's that's how he gets it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Volkov as an underdog, highlighting his reach, counter-striking, and cardio advantage. He believes Volkov can use kicks to keep distance, time Pavlovich's charges with counters, and potentially take the fight to the ground where Pavlovich is vulnerable. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to walk straight in with his hands down.

"I got to go volov I got to go volov furthermore maybe good live betting opportunity volov"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Volkov as the underdog, citing Pavlovich's lack of experience past round one in the UFC and potential cardio issues. He believes Volkov can use his reach, jabs, and teeps to pick Pavlovich apart if he survives the early onslaught. However, he is hesitant because Pavlovich's power could end the fight early.

"I'm gonna go vov because I think that's the play in terms of like if you're laying money on this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jacob picks Volkov, noting he doesn't lose to strikers and knows how to keep range and mix in takedowns. He worries about the friendship angle potentially leading to a sparring match, but thinks if Pavlovic pulls punches, Volkov wins. He also notes Pavlovic looks jacked but that might work against his cardio. He advises staying away from betting on this fight entirely.

Advises staying away from betting
"I'm going vov here obviously I'm getting worried about it but um you know like I said if Serge's Palm punches like I saved Angelo's life he's going to end up losing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

JP is a Volkov hater and confidently picks Pavlovich by KO/TKO, citing Pavlovich's wins over Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. He expects Pavlovich to clip Volkov early. Brevan disagrees, picking Volkov by decision, arguing that Volkov's size, chin, and experience will take Pavlovich into deep waters. He notes Volkov's technical striking and ability to survive round one. The hosts have opposing picks.

Pavlovich first round KO (Brevan may bet this prop)
"I think he's going to clip volov I think he's putting him out KO TKO pavlovich all the way"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul agrees with the underdog pick, citing Volkov's length, experience, and submission threat. He notes that Pavlovich is a battering ram but has shown vulnerability when taken down, as seen against Aspinall. Paul believes Volkov can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds.

"I think it's a clear dogger pass situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Alexander Volkov, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Volkov's toughness and kicking game, especially against plodding opponents, but believes Pavlovich's power and pressure will eventually catch Volkov against the cage. He notes that Volkov tends to back up and shell up, which could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Pavlovich's reach and head-hunting style are threats, but admits Volkov is a live underdog and the odds should be closer.

Volkov is a live underdog in my opinion
"I'm going to go with pavlovic over vov I think I reckon he'll be able to catch him on the feet Jabs I think he'll go to the body a bit more as well."
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Submission (Ezekiel choke) R2 4:37 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 28 of 67 41% 30 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 93 of 143 65% 107 of 164 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 39 38% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 51 of 83 61% 53 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Alexander Volkov 0 13 of 28 46% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 42 of 60 70% 54 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 28 of 67 41% 4 of 31 7 of 9 17 of 27 26 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 93 of 143 65% 65 of 110 18 of 21 10 of 12 72 of 115 3 of 3 18 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 39 38% 0 of 16 5 of 7 10 of 16 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 51 of 83 61% 29 of 56 13 of 16 9 of 11 50 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 13 of 28 46% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 11 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 42 of 60 70% 36 of 54 5 of 5 1 of 1 22 of 33 2 of 2 18 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)

Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because when these heavyweights start swinging, someone may go down hard. While Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC) has struggled against the top echelon of the division, the same can be said about his Russian adversary Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) – although only the former is on a losing streak. Combining for about 528.5 pounds in the cage, not counting referee Herb Dean, the large strikers will be performing a stress test on the cage floor and walls for as long as one remains standing. The heavy fists are bumped first as a courtesy, and Volkov goes right after a leg kick. He lifts his leg up when Tuivasa slings one back harder, and he tries to check it again when Tuivasa swings hard. Volkov counters another low kick with a right hand over the top, and he shoulder-rolls a punch to smack “Bam Bam” with an uppercut. Tuivasa comes up close and digs a right hand to the body, and his leg kicks might already be having an impact. Volkov slaps back a low kick, and he strings a one-two into a body kick that rustles Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa laughs it off, and the two resume after a glove touch. Volkov doubles up a low kick with one to the body, and Tuivasa runs at him flailing his fists. The Russian counters him and slides out of the way, and Tuivasa keeps coming towards him as his nose starts to bleed from jabs and straight right hands. Tuivasa has a leg kick caught, and he gets knocked to his knees from a piston-like right hand from “Drago.” Volkov allows his foe to get back up, and he times a Tuivasa charge with a right hand and two more quick punches on the inside. Tuivasa walks into a leg kick that he tries to turn with, and Volkov circles on the outside not allowing the Aussie to trap him. Tuivasa scores a low kick, and Volkov responds with a body kick, a left hand and a head kick. Tuivasa takes it all flush and ducks down while swinging a huge right hand, and Volkov counters him and gets nailed with a leg kick. Tuivasa unloads with another leg kick, and Volkov lifts his leg up and then strings several punches and kick together. Tuivasa scares his man with a pair of punches, but Volkov rolls well enough and resets to target Tuivasa’s body several times. Volkov dips out of the way of an overhand right, and he tries to check a leg kick and drops Tuivasa with a right hand. Volkov grips a guillotine choke, and he lets it go to bust Tuivasa up with several short punches and two nasty elbows. Tuivasa backs off, and he lets loose a leg kick with all his might. Volkov grunts and racks Tuivasa up with six punches and two body kicks. Tuivasa gets knocked against the wall, and he bends over, taking shots, until the horn sounds to possibly save him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off the second round, and Tuivasa plods forward and releases a powerful leg kick. Tuivasa closes in and gets popped with a few shots, and he leans back and connects with another leg kick. Tuivasa continues to batter the lead leg with kicks, and Volkov is wearing it and is quite ginger on it. Volkov kicks the midsection, and he gets off two uppercuts as Tuivasa bears down on him. Tuivasa blocks several punches but cannot stop the knee that comes up the middle, and he misses two punches and gets knocked back from a huge right hand. Tuivasa’s chin holds up and he grins, blood leaking out of his mouth, and the crowd gives it up for the two putting on the show. Tuivasa kicks low, and Volkov times a perfect right hand to send Tuivasa tumbling to his seat. Volkov climbs on top and advances right to half guard, and he considers a choke only for Tuivasa to muscle his way out of it. Tuivasa blitzes forward, and Volkov lets him do this so he can counter with sharper strikes. Volkov checks a kick and plants a one-two on the chin, and when he checks another, he gets off a right hand that knocks Tuivasa down. With two minutes and 10 seconds remaining, Volkov jumps into full mount, and he unloads punches and smashes the Aussie in the face with an elbow. The Russian keeps his legs intertwined with Tuivasa’s to disallow him from an escape, and Volkov lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke. Volkov bails on it to start striking, and Tuivasa throws back but is getting pummeled. “Bam Bam” rolls over to his stomach and keeps getting pounded, and he nearly escapes out the side only for Volkov to recover and get back to mount. Volkov keeps working with short strikes, and he sets up an Ezekiel choke out of nowhere as he fastens his left forearm arm over the neck and hooks his right arm behind the head. A frantic Tuivasa tries to buck off the massive Russian with all of his energy left, but Volkov uses his full body weight to finish the choke and trap Tuivasa fully. Tuivasa has nothing left to do at this point but choose whether he will submit or go out on his shield, and he taps out on Volkov’s side to conclude the fight. Remarkably, “Drago” has performed just the fourth submission of his career, and it marks his first since 2016. He joins countryman Alexey Oleynik and UFC 7 combatant Remco Pardoel as the only three to ever perform an Ezekiel choke in promotional history.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Tai Tuivasa R2 4:37 via Submission (Ezekiel Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.

Half unit parlay with Justin Tafa at plus money
"I've got to go volkov here but I imagine the rest of the community and myself are also going to be rooting for Tai tuivasa to get a one punch knockout walk off I don't see it happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'm gonna pick the dog and tie to evoss and to land a big shot and knock out Alexander volkov here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes (later moved to 31.5) on Prize Picks
"the official pick I think has to be volkov on the basis of superior Striker better volume better grappling better cardio uh man it's heavyweight Paul so I'm gonna take volkov but again as far as parlays go I need …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.

Odds mentioned: Volkov minus 250, Tuivasa plus 210. Levi says he is not putting his money on it.
"As a pure pick I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take volkov uh just like you said more volume more ways to win but it's not a confident pick I'm not putting my money on it and I'm …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.

"I think Alexander volkov is quite safe in this spot I think volkov is levels above title of us"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.

Volkov by KO
"give me volkov uh volkov to win impressively here and I think he does it by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think from a betting perspective it's tired it's it's Stewie vosser past maybe it's just like my heart's in it because I'm a shoe Aficionado as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.

TKO in round 2 via front kick to the body
"I'm gonna go Alexander volkov TKO round two"
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Romanov vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)

Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.

may bet on Romanov moneyline
"the pick is Romanov and I'm hoping we see some improved cardio out of him... I may take the shot shoot my shot and put some money on Romanov there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say Romanoff first round sub here should be a very very fun fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I will pick him uh right now ever so slightly minus 150 is not the worst price tag going but again Kion the after the first round if he gets if volkov gets out of the first round you see …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I think I got to pick Volkov here. ... I think I might feel like it's a terrible mistake having by the time this is over, he's had weird points lately where he's looked incredibly flat. ... But I think …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.

Romanov by submission round 1, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna lean with the former though I think romanov's a high level well strong takedowns will definitely come to fruition early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.

suggests live betting after first round; mentions prize picks line of 2.5 takedowns for Romanov
"I'm gonna go with the underdog and volkov here I think it's probably a better live betting opportunity make sure you get through the first five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.

by submission (forearm choke)
"I'm actually gonna call an Alexander Romanov forearm choke finish over Alexander volkov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I mean, I think I'm still going to side with Romanov just for the three round thing. Uh, if it was a five rounder, I would absolutely pick Volkov because I have zero reason to think Romanov can make it …"
TKO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)

Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.

"i'm gonna side with volkov here i trust his fight iq i trust his move around long striking style to keep him out of danger"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.

Rozenstruik by KO +200 (mentioned as alternative)
"volkov volkov for the win volkov by decision for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.

Volkov by decision, over 3.5 rounds
"i got volkov i got vocal by decision i got the over three and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.

Rozenstruik by knockout +210; one-unit bet
"i'm going with the underdog here i'm not sitting here saying it's max best season i'm not sitting here saying to make a big bet but you know plus 140 plus 145 odds i might take a one unit shot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.

Volkov by decision (if available, likely around -200)
"i really struggle to see how jairzinio wins a a decision against alexander volkov so yeah volkov for me minus 150."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.

"i think he's going to keep rose and strike at range rose and strikes gonna hesitate against a massive opponent"
LOSS vs Tom Aspinall
Submission (straight armbar) R1 3:45 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 0 13 of 23 56% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkov 0 29 of 43 67% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 0 13 of 23 56% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkov 0 29 of 43 67% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 13 of 23 56% 6 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexander Volkov 29 of 43 67% 16 of 30 5 of 5 8 of 8 16 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 13 of 23 56% 6 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexander Volkov 29 of 43 67% 16 of 30 5 of 5 8 of 8 16 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall

Round 1
In extremely hostile territory, Russian striker Volkov (34-9, 8-3 UFC) will compete as one half of the main event against surging British upstart and pure finisher Aspinall (11-2, 4-0 UFC). The partisan crowd has been treated to plenty of locals getting their hand raised thus far tonight, and they hope to end the night with the Team Kaobon fighter out of Manchester getting it done once more. Referee Marc Goddard will serve as the final Octagon ranger of the evening, and a cool hand shake is exchanged before the two inflict powerful heavyweight violence on one another. Aspinall starts first with several quick punches, landing a trio of shots on the chin as Volkov is caught standing still. Volkov backs off to get into his preferred range, landing leg kicks and checking one of his own. The Brit surges forward, grabbing hold of his opponent and wrenching him down to the mat. Landing in side control one minute into the round, Aspinall elects to step into half guard and hack down with short elbows. Volkov is already cut from these elbows on the side of his head, and Aspinall continues working on it. Aspinall lets go with his other hand, slamming down fists and elbows as Volkov struggles to work his way to the fence. When the Russian sits up, Aspinall isolates a two-on-one wrist lock to try to hunt for a kimura, but Volkov straightens his arm and fights back up to his feet. Aspinall resets, and Volkov chips at him with a leg kick and a right hand as Aspinall advances with a hacking standing elbow. Aspinall attacks the leg and stands right in front of his opponent, throwing strikes, and Volkov is frozen watching it happen. Aspinall throws a kick and falls to the ground, and although Volkov runs over to try to capitalize on the position, Aspinall rolls and stands back up to high five Volkov. The Brit gathers his footing and rushes in, hitting a tackle of a double-leg takedown to put the Russian down to the canvas again.
Instead of hunting for ground-and-pound, Aspinall immediately goes after Volkov’s left arm. Briefly considering a kimura again, Aspinall changes it up to lock up a straight armbar, and Volkov taps out frantically when his elbow hyperextends.
The Team Kaobon fighter releases, and he sprints to the cage wall to climb it alongside teammate Darren Till. This is unquestionably a breakout performance for the instant heavyweight contender, blowing through a durable, crafty veteran while barely breaking a sweat. What a major turn of events in a fight card full of them, closing out a thrilling card that very well will be involved in “Event of the Year” conversations in nine-plus months. In his post-fight conversation with commentator Michael Bisping, the victorious Aspinall challenges Tai Tuivasa to drink beer with him – and fight – when the promotion returns to England. Should that come together, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Alexander Volkov R1 3:45 via Submission (Straight Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior pure striking, more power, and better grappling compared to Volkov. He notes that Volkov has lost to strikers like Gane and Lewis, and to grapplers like Blaydes. Angelo acknowledges Volkov's durability and the fact that Aspinall has never gone three rounds, but still sees Aspinall as the straightforward pick. He has a moneyline bet on Aspinall at minus 110.

moneyline bet at -110
"i like aspinall here but we will absolutely find out if he's more hyped than substance because volkov always shows up and he is not an easy win for anyone but i am going with the brit tom aspinall here …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by late knockout. He has question marks about Aspinall's cardio, as Aspinall has never won a fight past 1.5 rounds and slowed in the Arlovski fight. Brady believes Volkov has a proven chin, excellent cardio, and has faced much better competition. He doubts Aspinall can take Volkov down and thinks the fight will stay on the feet, where Volkov's experience and durability will prevail.

late knockout
"give me alexander volkov to knock out tom aspinall later the fight goes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Cody picks Aspinall but is hesitant due to the five-round distance. He notes Aspinall's speed and power advantage, and thinks his grappling might be better, but the five rounds scare him. He hasn't placed a bet on it.

"aspinall is the pick for me but i haven't put any money on it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall at dog odds (+110), citing his speed advantage, confidence, and Volkov's potential decline after missing a title shot. He notes Aspinall's footwork and movement are rare for a heavyweight, and that Volkov's recent performances have been shaky. Levi acknowledges the cardio question but believes Aspinall can finish early or outpoint Volkov. He also mentions that Volkov's last two five-round fights were losses.

Bet Aspinall at +110 before line flipped
"I got dog odds on a guy who i think has a big speed advantage i think he's got a confidence advantage"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Volkov is a 43-fight veteran who has only been knocked out twice, showing durability. Aspinall's win condition is a first-round KO; if he doesn't get it, he fades. Volkov's range kickboxing, teeps, and leg kicks will chip away at Aspinall's gas tank. Aspinall's win over Spivak was impressive but Spivak looked intimidated. Volkov at underdog odds is great value; I'll bet him at +120 to +130 for 2 units. I'm picking Volkov via third-round TKO.

Volkov via TKO round 3; under 3.5 rounds; live bet Volkov after round 1
"I love Volkov in this spot... I think Volkov gives him a veteran lesson here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov, emphasizing the five-round advantage and Volkov's durability. He argues Aspinall needs a first-round KO, but Volkov has a good chin and cardio. He cites Volkov's improvements in takedown defense and size, and believes Aspinall's aggressive style will lead to fatigue in later rounds.

"i'm taking alexander vogel"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The Guru picks Tom Aspinall despite the close odds, citing Aspinall's speed, power, and grappling pedigree. He notes Volkov's vulnerability to being cracked, referencing Derrick Lewis's knockout, and believes Aspinall's team focus (after Darren Till left) will elevate him. He also mentions potential hometown judging bias in the UK. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Aspinall landing a 1-2 straight down the pipe.

first round TKO
"i'm going to go with tom aspinall here... i think he's going to crack volkov out there in the first round by tko"
Greg Hardy - Fight History
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:21
Greg Hardy 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:21
Greg Hardy 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 20
Greg Hardy 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 20
Greg Hardy 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Spivac but says he wouldn't bet the fight due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Spivac needs to wrestle early and often, and that Hardy has power but poor grappling. He mentions Spivac had trouble with Oleinik but chalks it up to fear of the ground. He expects Spivac to shoot immediately.

would not bet this fight
"spivak is the pick but he needs to start diving at legs immediately after the glove touch i would not bet this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Big Brady picks Greg Hardy to win by first-round knockout. He is not high on Spivac, noting that Spivac often waits too long to shoot takedowns and has poor striking defense. Brady acknowledges Hardy's power and good takedown defense early, but admits Hardy's ground game is weak. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Spivac gets it to the mat, he wins; if not, Hardy knocks him out. Brady leans toward Hardy because he doubts Spivac's game plan.

Hardy by first-round knockout
"i'm actually going to take the dog here with greg hardy i know a lot of people are going to be upset with that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody does not have a strong lean on this fight. He acknowledges Hardy's early power and finishing ability but notes his cardio and grappling holes. He suggests a live betting opportunity if Spivac takes Hardy down early, but he has no interest in betting the fight outright.

Live betting: Spivac inside the distance if he dominates round 1 on top
"i have no interest in betting that fight to be perfectly honest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Serghei Spivac via ground and pound TKO. He believes Spivac will take Hardy down and dominate on the ground, as Hardy has nothing off his back and gasses out. He notes that Spivac doesn't like getting hit but should avoid striking exchanges. He criticizes Hardy's mental toughness and cardio, citing the inhaler incident and recent losses.

"i'm going sergey spivak via ground and pound tko"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivak is a big heavyweight who should dominate Hardy on the ground. Hardy gasses and gives up when taken down, as seen in the Tai Tuivasa fight. Spivak can take Hardy down, wear on him, and finish with a submission or ground and pound. The line should be closer to -300. Hardy's only chance is an early KO, but Spivak can survive the first round and take over.

Spivak wins inside the distance (round 2 submission)
"i like speedvac i'll likely have to be back inside the distance um yeah that this this is a squash match if honestly if i've ever seen one spivak should absolutely cruise here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Paul sees this as closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest. He notes Hardy's early power and nearly finishing Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura, but acknowledges his cardio and grappling deficiencies. Paul thinks Hardy could finish Spivac early, but if not, Spivac will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and leans Hardy as a live underdog.

"this is closer to 50 50 dude so again there's going to be dogs on this card that hit i think this is a chance for one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

The MMA Guru picks Greg Hardy as an underdog over Serghei Spivac, despite acknowledging Spivac's grappling advantage. He believes Hardy's explosiveness and power will catch Spivac early, as Spivac is poor on the feet in the first round. He notes Hardy prepared for Aleksei Oleinik and Spivac stepped in on short notice, and that Spivac is coming off a KO loss. He predicts a first-round KO for Hardy.

underdog pick, odds comment: 'almost two to one'
"i'm going to take greg hardy as an underdog against spivak"
LOSS vs Tai Tuivasa
KO (punches) R1 1:07 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 1 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Greg Hardy 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 1 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Greg Hardy 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 11 of 23 47% 5 of 15 0 of 1 6 of 7 9 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 3
Greg Hardy 6 of 15 40% 5 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 11 of 23 47% 5 of 15 0 of 1 6 of 7 9 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 3
Greg Hardy 6 of 15 40% 5 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy

Round 1
As per usual, an unranked heavyweight brawl takes high placement on the main card over other ranked fighters below it, this time with Tuivasa (11-3, 5-3 UFC) and Hardy (7-3, 1 NC; 4-3, 1 NC UFC) ready to throw fastballs. A full 527.5 pounds will measure between these sluggers, along with 16 knockouts in their combined 18 victories. Referee Mark Smith is already holding on to his proverbial hat inside the Octagon, and the heavyweights decide to touch gloves before throwing down. Hardy points to the center of the cage to incite a brawl, and Tuivasa laughs it off with several heavy leg kicks that catch Hardy off-guard. Hardy stings Tuivasa with a long left hand, and he peppers Tuivasa with several jabs before absorbing a popping leg kick. Tuivasa sits down on a right hand, and Hardy eats it like a Vegemite sandwich and fires right back at him. Both big men blast each other with power punches, and the Aussie staggers as he backs off, surprised that Hardy's right hand on the temple hurt him. Hardy crashes in to put him away, and Tuivasa is right there like Scott Smith against Pete Sell, nailing Hardy with a right hand and freezing him in his tracks with a missile of a left hand. Hardy’s legs crumble beneath him as if he were a puppet that had its strings cut, and Tuivasa leaps on his damaged opponent to pound him out. It does not take more than a couple follow-up punches for Smith to call the fight, as Hardy’s eyes roll back in his head from the hammering shots. A speedy victory leads to Tuivasa leaping on top of the cage, and he calls for his corner to supply him with his trademark celebratory beverage. The commission does not get in the way, allowing the ecstatic Aussie to drink beer out of a shoe to the delight of the T-Mobile Arena. He calls on fans to supply him with more shoeys on the way out in his post-fight interview, and pounds a few as he strides back to the locker room. Jorge Masvidal is there to greet him, and he meets “Bam Bam” with a warm, alcohol-soaked embrace.

The Official Result
Tai Tuivasa def. Greg Hardy R1 1:07 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo is very confident in Tuivasa, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Tuivasa's technical striking, heavy hands, Samoan chin, and takedown defense. He notes Hardy has no ground game and is clueless on the mat. He has a moneyline bet on Tuivasa and has him in his DraftKings lineup.

Moneyline bet on Tuivasa
"tai tuivasa beats the piss out of greg hardy i have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Big Brady picks Greg Hardy to win by decision. He notes Hardy's volume (4.83 strikes per minute) and positive strike differential, and believes the bigger cage favors Hardy's range management. He expects Hardy to stay on the outside and outland Tuivasa. He acknowledges Hardy's cardio concerns but thinks Tuivasa won't attempt takedowns, so Hardy won't gas. He also notes Tuivasa's chin but thinks Hardy can avoid getting clipped.

"i'm gonna go with greg hardy greg hardy's going to have more volume i think the bigger cage is going to favor a guy like greg hardy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody picks Tuivasa but is hesitant. He notes Hardy's cardio issues and asthma, and Tuivasa's durability and leg kicks. He expects Hardy to win the first round but fade, allowing Tuivasa to come back. He suggests betting Tuivasa live after the first round.

suggests betting Tuivasa after the first round if he loses it; also mentions a shoei bet if Tuivasa loses
"the official pick is going to be tie and i don't love that i can see greg carty coming out here and looking good but at some point he falls off"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa to win. He highlights Tuivasa's better technique, volume, and experience against higher-level competition, including former champions. He notes that Greg Hardy has cardio issues and tends to fade in later rounds, as seen in the Marcin Tybura fight. He believes Tuivasa's leg kicks and will to dig deeper will be decisive, and that Hardy is unlikely to take the fight to the ground. He expects Tuivasa to win a decision or possibly get a finish in the later rounds.

"my pick will be tuivasa"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Jacob picks Hardy as a value play, expecting a first-round finish either way. He thinks Hardy's wild, powerful striking from odd angles could catch Tuivasa early. He admits it's a coin flip but likes Hardy at 7800 in DraftKings. He acknowledges this is his last time backing Hardy after being burned before.

First-round finish expected
"greg hardy is in my lineup oh my god i'm taking greg hardy because i think both the i think this is a first round finish either way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

I'm taking Tuivasa here. Hardy has cardio issues and will struggle to get his stick-and-move game off. Tuivasa will pressure him, land combinations, and push him against the cage. Hardy gassed against Tybura, and I think Tuivasa will knock him out in the second or third round. I like Tuivasa by KO round 2 or 3.

Tuivasa by KO, Tuivasa round 2, Tuivasa round 3
"i got tuivasa minus 130 ko round two round three i think is live here so i'm going with tuivasa in the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul picks Tuivasa but is hesitant. He notes Hardy's athleticism and improvements but questions his cardio. He thinks Tuivasa's durability and ability to keep coming will be key. He expects Hardy to win the first round but fade, and Tuivasa to take over.

suggests betting Tuivasa after the first round
"i'm picking tai toivasa if he loses i will take that i'll do a showing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru predicts Tuivasa will win by first-round KO. He expects Tuivasa to use calf kicks to destroy Hardy's lead leg, a rare weapon in the heavyweight division. After Hardy throws some early bombs, Tuivasa will chop at the calf repeatedly, causing Hardy to stumble and move backwards. Tuivasa will then clinch against the cage, land body shots and elbows, and break with a big right hand that drops Hardy. The Guru sees a finish similar to Tuivasa's previous win over Jorgen de Castro.

Tuivasa wins by KO in round 1
"i'm going with try to ivasa by first round ko against greg hardy i think he's gonna absolutely destroy that lead leg of greg hardy on the calf"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
TKO (punches) R2 4:31 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 51 of 101 50% 60 of 111 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:27
Greg Hardy 0 50 of 91 54% 50 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 16 of 36 44% 16 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Greg Hardy 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Marcin Tybura 0 35 of 65 53% 44 of 75 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Greg Hardy 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 51 of 101 50% 34 of 82 10 of 12 7 of 7 33 of 74 0 of 0 18 of 27
Greg Hardy 50 of 91 54% 29 of 65 12 of 13 9 of 13 46 of 85 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 16 of 36 44% 8 of 27 5 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Greg Hardy 38 of 62 61% 23 of 42 7 of 8 8 of 12 35 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 35 of 65 53% 26 of 55 5 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 38 0 of 0 18 of 27
Greg Hardy 12 of 29 41% 6 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Greg Hardy

Angelo picks Greg Hardy, citing his toughness and one-punch power. He notes Hardy can get in the pocket and take a shot, but expresses a caveat about him not getting worn out.

"greg hardy i feel like that's that's a good and anytime you go heavyweight you want someone that's that that doesn't that has one punch power but doesn't rely on the one punch power i think i think greg hardy's …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady picks Marcin Tybura over Greg Hardy, despite Hardy being a slight favorite. He notes Tybura's solid wrestling and BJJ black belt, and believes he can take Hardy down, where Hardy looks like a 'fish out of water'. Brady predicts a submission win in the third round, citing Hardy's poor gas tank and Tybura's experience advantage.

submission in round three
"i'm going to say he finishes greg hardy in that third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The host likes Tybura as a dog, citing Hardy's narrow path to victory (KO only) and suspect gas tank. He believes Tybura's well-rounded game, including takedowns and volume, will overwhelm Hardy as the fight progresses. He predicts a third-round TKO or decision for Tybura.

Tybura inside the distance +385, Tybura round 3 +1400, fight doesn't go to decision -150
"i think tybour is very very live here as long as he doesn't get knocked out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The Guru picks Marcin Tybura, believing he will push Greg Hardy against the cage and weather an early storm. He notes Tybura's improved conditioning and grappling ability, and that Hardy tends to gas. He predicts a 29-28 decision or late TKO for Tybura.

Mentions that the odds are even but Hardy might be the favorite due to fan betting. Predicts a decision or late finish.
"i think taibura is a good second and third round i think he definitely wins i'll say 29-28 tybura on a decision or a late round tko or finish"
TKO (punches) R2 1:12 · UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Oct 31, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Greg Hardy 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 1 46 of 74 62% 56 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Greg Hardy 0 13 of 25 52% 13 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 25 of 43 58% 35 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:15
2 Greg Hardy 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 1 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Greg Hardy 17 of 37 45% 6 of 21 3 of 5 8 of 11 16 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Maurice Greene 46 of 74 62% 32 of 55 5 of 5 9 of 14 19 of 36 0 of 0 27 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Greg Hardy 13 of 25 52% 3 of 10 3 of 5 7 of 10 12 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Maurice Greene 25 of 43 58% 14 of 28 4 of 4 7 of 11 14 of 27 0 of 0 11 of 16
2 Greg Hardy 4 of 12 33% 3 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 21 of 31 67% 18 of 27 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 22
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Big Brady favors Hardy's power and athleticism, noting Greene's poor striking defense and chin. He thinks Greene's kicks leave openings and that the smaller cage will lead to a knockout. He predicts a second-round KO.

"give me greg hardy to win by a second round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Hardy has power and has shown improvement in his last few fights, but his cardio is questionable. Greene is mobile and can chip away from distance, but his cardio also fades. Hardy likely wins by KO in the second round, but the -310 line is too steep.

Hardy wins by KO in round 2
"I still like greg hardy here i think it's gonna come down to the power... final pick greg hardy via second round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

The MMA Guru picks Greg Hardy by unanimous decision, noting that Hardy is improving and has a similar reach to Greene. He believes Hardy will chop at Greene's legs, following the game plan that worked for John Valente, and that Greene lacks motivation and hasn't improved.

"i'm going to go with greg hardy getting it done by unanimous decision victory"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Greg Hardy 0 55 of 124 44% 66 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Yorgan De Castro 0 24 of 69 34% 24 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Greg Hardy 0 25 of 55 45% 25 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yorgan De Castro 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Greg Hardy 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yorgan De Castro 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Greg Hardy 0 14 of 38 36% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Yorgan De Castro 0 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Greg Hardy 55 of 124 44% 21 of 80 7 of 9 27 of 35 55 of 124 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 24 of 69 34% 6 of 44 2 of 7 16 of 18 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Greg Hardy 25 of 55 45% 13 of 40 4 of 5 8 of 10 25 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 15 of 41 36% 6 of 30 1 of 3 8 of 8 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Greg Hardy 16 of 31 51% 5 of 18 1 of 1 10 of 12 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 4 of 11 36% 0 of 6 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Greg Hardy 14 of 38 36% 3 of 22 2 of 3 9 of 13 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 5 of 17 29% 0 of 8 1 of 3 4 of 6 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Big Brady picks Greg Hardy, citing his athleticism, reach advantage, and improvement. He compares the fight to Hardy's win over Juan Adams. He acknowledges De Castro's power but expects Hardy to be busier and win by first-round knockout. He thinks the line at minus 190 is a bit wide and would not bet it due to heavyweight volatility.

Hardy by first round knockout; line minus 190 is a little wide
"I like Greg Hardy here and I like him quite a bit. Um he's way more athletic fighter."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Daniel Levi picks Greg Hardy, citing his athleticism, size, and UFC experience. He notes Hardy's improvement in patience and jab, and believes De Castro may gas in later rounds. Levi acknowledges De Castro's power and timing but thinks Hardy's reach advantage and ability to avoid big shots will be key.

"I'm gonna go with Hardy here I think the athleticism will be too much the size even the UFC experience at this point so I'm gonna go with Greg Hardy to get this done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Matt is high on De Castro, citing his leg kicks, power, and movement. He believes De Castro can neutralize Hardy's movement with calf kicks and eventually finish him. He sees Hardy as overvalued and plans to bet De Castro if the line reaches +200. He picks De Castro by second-round TKO.

under 1.5 rounds (+130), De Castro by second-round TKO
"I really like Jurgen to cash flow in this fight... my pick is gonna be Jurgen de Castro via second round TKO"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 86 of 152 56% 86 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Greg Hardy 0 46 of 135 34% 51 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Greg Hardy 0 11 of 40 27% 16 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 32 of 51 62% 32 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Greg Hardy 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 31 of 56 55% 31 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Greg Hardy 0 21 of 57 36% 21 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 86 of 152 56% 44 of 101 26 of 32 16 of 19 86 of 152 0 of 0 0 of 0
Greg Hardy 46 of 135 34% 23 of 92 13 of 29 10 of 14 46 of 135 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 23 of 45 51% 9 of 27 9 of 11 5 of 7 23 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Greg Hardy 11 of 40 27% 9 of 31 1 of 6 1 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 32 of 51 62% 12 of 28 12 of 14 8 of 9 32 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Greg Hardy 14 of 38 36% 4 of 19 6 of 14 4 of 5 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 31 of 56 55% 23 of 46 5 of 7 3 of 3 31 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Greg Hardy 21 of 57 36% 10 of 42 6 of 9 5 of 6 21 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Greg Hardy

Round 1
The only heavyweight contest on the card is our co-main event, as ranked contender Volkov (30-7, 4-1 UFC) welcomes short-notice replacement Hardy (5-1, 1 NC; 2-1, 1 NC UFC) into hostile territory. The referee of this 516-pound battle is Leon Roberts. Hardy runs towards his opponent but they touch gloves, and Volkov opens with an unexpected leg kick to start the fight. He lands a few more, and Hardy fires back with a long right straight. Hardy flicks out a jab, and Volkov hammers him to the body with a kick and then fires a jab at the American's face. Hardy looks to set up a big right hand, and as Volkov defends it with a kick, Hardy darts in to pursue a takedown. Volkov defends it and circles out, but takes a kick from Hardy. Hardy throws a jab to the body and then one to the head, so Volkov responds by flipping a quick head kick up that Hardy is able to block. A strong one-two comes from Volkov, and Hardy chases after him with some left jabs. Two more jabs from Hardy land successfully, so Volkov comes back with a similar string of punches. As Hardy punches the body, Volkov slaps him back to the midsection with a quick kick. Hardy keeps the jab going, and Volkov is out of the way but takes a leg kick. Volkov snaps a jab out that gets the crowd behind him, as they appear to be chanting his name. "Drago" walks him down with jabs and speedy kicks, and then clips Hardy on the chin with a right hand that makes Hardy lick his lips. Hardy pounces with two big left hands, but Volkov is no worse for wear as he throws out another body kick to his short-notice opponent. This surprisingly close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hardy
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The two grin and stare at one another as they touch gloves, and we are informed that Hardy may have injured his right hand in that first round. Hardy continues to pepper with that left jab, so Volkov throws a jab back at him and then a right. Hardy throws that potentially compromised right without ill effect, and Volkov is largely able to roll with it. The two trade leg kicks, but the volume is in favor of Volkov as he doubles and triples up on them. Hardy tries to throw back harder, and goes full power for a strike that is well short of the mark, and he nearly tumbles to the cage floor in the process. Hardy keeps his jab to the body going, and Volkov is content to pick at him with kicks at distance. As Hardy sets up a big right hand, Volkov clips him with a straight left, but Hardy still connects with that punch. Volkov digs to the body with a push kick, and Hardy leaps forward to attack the body in response. Volkov continues that gameplan, working the front kick to the midsection and catching Hardy with numerous kicks to the body when the American comes in. Hardy rushes in with a right, and then fires a spinning back first at his Russian opponent, but Volkov is able to block it. Volkov sneaks up a head kick that partially lands, and Hardy grins at him. Volkov works the body several more times with kicks, and he follows those punches with sharp jabs. As the horn sounds, Hardy limps back to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
A final touch of gloves leads immediately to a front kick that tags Volkov on the chin. Hardy comes out like he was shot out of a cannon, swinging hard but not landing to great effect. Volkov stays tall and jabs at Hardy, and the American complains of an eye poke. Roberts contends that it was a knuckle, and we continue unabated. As they trade jabs, Hardy tries to close the distance but Volkov remains in kicking range. They go jab-for-jab, until Volkov commits on a few leg kicks that cause Hardy to flinch. As he lands a few low kicks, he fakes low and goes up with a head kick that grazes the chin of the former football player. Hardy grabs hold of Volkov's left hand in a jab, so Volkov fires a right hand that slams into Hardy's jaw. Hardy lets go and tries to keep jabbing, but his volume is about half as much as Volkov. As Hardy goes low, Volkov flings a head kick and again catches Hardy unaware, but Hardy walks right through it. With a minute remaining, the two trade heavy jabs, and then a big body kick from Volkov stuns Hardy momentarily. Another follows immediately, and then a head kick from Volkov sends something flying out of the cage -- it might be tape, or spit, or even Vaseline. Volkov keeps the distance striking going, and jabs and kicks his way until the final horn sounds, and we have surprisingly reached the scorecards.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Greg Hardy via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
LOSS vs Ben Sosoli
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Greg Hardy 0 54 of 105 51% 54 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Sosoli 0 26 of 97 26% 26 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Greg Hardy 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Sosoli 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Greg Hardy 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Sosoli 0 7 of 35 20% 7 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Greg Hardy 0 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Sosoli 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Greg Hardy 54 of 105 51% 22 of 72 5 of 5 27 of 28 52 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ben Sosoli 26 of 97 26% 15 of 78 10 of 18 1 of 1 26 of 96 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Greg Hardy 19 of 39 48% 12 of 31 0 of 0 7 of 8 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ben Sosoli 9 of 32 28% 3 of 22 5 of 9 1 of 1 9 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Greg Hardy 18 of 31 58% 5 of 18 3 of 3 10 of 10 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Sosoli 7 of 35 20% 5 of 31 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Greg Hardy 17 of 35 48% 5 of 23 2 of 2 10 of 10 17 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Sosoli 10 of 30 33% 7 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Juan Adams
TKO (punches) R1 0:45 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Greg Hardy 0 36 of 38 94% 36 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Juan Adams 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Greg Hardy 0 36 of 38 94% 36 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Juan Adams 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Greg Hardy 36 of 38 94% 35 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 31 of 31
Juan Adams 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Greg Hardy 36 of 38 94% 35 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 31 of 31
Juan Adams 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0