Career Averages - Darren Till
Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum
Darren Till - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 58 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 86 of 147 | 58% | 117 of 197 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 5:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 60 of 85 | 70% | 82 of 126 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:56 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 19 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 35 of 70 | 50% | 26 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 86 of 147 | 58% | 69 of 123 | 4 of 7 | 13 of 17 | 28 of 59 | 25 of 40 | 33 of 48 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 60 of 85 | 70% | 54 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 38 | 31 of 41 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 18 of 33 | 54% | 12 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 11 of 25 | 44% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 16 of 34 | 47% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.
Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.
Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.
Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.
Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.
Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Brunson | 0 | 41 of 84 | 48% | 101 of 145 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 7:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 28 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Brunson | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 51 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Derek Brunson | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 37 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Derek Brunson | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 13 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Brunson | 41 of 84 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 9 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 45 |
| Darren Till | 26 of 50 | 52% | 14 of 38 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 42 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Brunson | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 34 |
| Darren Till | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Derek Brunson | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Darren Till | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Derek Brunson | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Darren Till | 14 of 24 | 58% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.
Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.
I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.
Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.
The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 69 of 157 | 43% | 100 of 188 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 41 of 99 | 41% | 50 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 42 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 18 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 69 of 157 | 43% | 32 of 116 | 7 of 10 | 30 of 31 | 57 of 139 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 7 |
| Darren Till | 41 of 99 | 41% | 29 of 86 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 31 of 87 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 11 of 30 | 36% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 12 of 24 | 50% | 8 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 15 of 30 | 50% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Darren Till | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 13 of 32 | 40% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 6 of 21 | 28% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 13 of 34 | 38% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 8 of 19 | 42% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 17 of 31 | 54% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 12 of 23 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Whittaker because he believes Whittaker is the more talented fighter and will throw more volume. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after the Adesanya KO, but thinks if it holds up, Whittaker runs away with it. He is not impressed with Till's recent win over Gastelum and sees Till as basic. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker.
Daniel leans Whittaker, citing his power and strength, but acknowledges Till's late-round success and hunger. He notes Whittaker's defensive flaws and Till's limited but effective striking. He sees a possible second-round knockout for Whittaker but is not confident, calling it a dog-or-pass fight from a betting perspective.
Whittaker is the better overall striker with superior movement and combination punching. He will be able to cover range effectively and land blitzes, while Till may struggle with Whittaker's speed and variety. Whittaker's chin is not completely shot despite the Adesanya KO, and he should shake off rust and finish Till in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Darren Till, arguing that elite strikers beat Robert Whittaker, citing Whittaker's losses to Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after wars with Romero and the Adesanya KO, while Till has had time to recover and adjust to middleweight. He predicts Till will catch Whittaker lunging in with a left hand and finish him by TKO in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Till | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 50 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 36 of 67 | 53% | 37 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Till | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Darren Till | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Darren Till | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 17 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Till | 40 of 81 | 49% | 8 of 41 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 26 | 26 of 63 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 36 of 67 | 53% | 19 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 17 | 34 of 61 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Till | 11 of 23 | 47% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 11 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Till | 14 of 25 | 56% | 2 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 12 of 23 | 52% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Darren Till | 15 of 33 | 45% | 5 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 17 of 28 | 60% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Masvidal | 1 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Darren Till | 1 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 41 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | 1 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Darren Till | 1 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Masvidal | 21 of 43 | 48% | 17 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Darren Till | 35 of 72 | 48% | 18 of 51 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 9 | 31 of 65 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | 13 of 27 | 48% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Darren Till | 19 of 39 | 48% | 10 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jorge Masvidal | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 16 of 33 | 48% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyron Woodley | 1 | 57 of 79 | 72% | 74 of 97 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 5:29 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyron Woodley | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Tyron Woodley | 1 | 46 of 56 | 82% | 58 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyron Woodley | 57 of 79 | 72% | 47 of 67 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 45 of 54 |
| Darren Till | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyron Woodley | 11 of 23 | 47% | 3 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tyron Woodley | 46 of 56 | 82% | 44 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 54 |
| Darren Till | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Till | 0 | 30 of 126 | 23% | 31 of 127 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 38 of 126 | 30% | 40 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Till | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Darren Till | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 6 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Darren Till | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Darren Till | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 7 of 33 | 21% | 7 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 5 | Darren Till | 0 | 3 of 23 | 13% | 4 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Till | 30 of 126 | 23% | 8 of 92 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 15 | 29 of 125 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 38 of 126 | 30% | 18 of 87 | 5 of 12 | 15 of 27 | 34 of 121 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Till | 5 of 18 | 27% | 0 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Till | 6 of 28 | 21% | 1 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Darren Till | 8 of 31 | 25% | 3 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 9 of 32 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Darren Till | 8 of 26 | 30% | 3 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 7 of 33 | 21% | 4 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Darren Till | 3 of 23 | 13% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Till | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Donald Cerrone | 1 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Till | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Donald Cerrone | 1 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Till | 14 of 24 | 58% | 2 of 8 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 24 of 55 | 43% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 40 | 4 of 11 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Till | 14 of 24 | 58% | 2 of 8 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 24 of 55 | 43% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 40 | 4 of 11 | 2 of 4 |
Kelvin Gastelum - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 12 of 28 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 12 of 28 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.
Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.
Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.
Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.
Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.
James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.
Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.
Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 57 of 117 | 48% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 64 of 146 | 43% | 69 of 151 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 2:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:13 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 57 of 117 | 48% | 30 of 81 | 16 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 56 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 64 of 146 | 43% | 25 of 93 | 25 of 34 | 14 of 19 | 55 of 134 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 14 of 25 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 24 of 49 | 48% | 3 of 23 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 23 of 43 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 52 | 38% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.
Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.
Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.
Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 33 of 99 | 33% | 34 of 100 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Joe Pyfer | 2 | 57 of 114 | 50% | 58 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 2 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 11 of 50 | 22% | 11 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 33 of 99 | 33% | 13 of 69 | 11 of 17 | 9 of 13 | 32 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 57 of 114 | 50% | 44 of 99 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 51 of 104 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 8 of 20 | 40% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 21 of 39 | 53% | 16 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 11 of 50 | 22% | 2 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 14 of 29 | 48% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 19 of 35 | 54% | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.
Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.
Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.
Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.
James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 112 of 238 | 47% | 123 of 250 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 127 of 265 | 47% | 132 of 273 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 44 of 93 | 47% | 45 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 46 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 39 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 53 of 113 | 46% | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 39 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 112 of 238 | 47% | 77 of 193 | 14 of 20 | 21 of 25 | 105 of 226 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 127 of 265 | 47% | 82 of 214 | 36 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 127 of 265 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 44 of 93 | 47% | 27 of 70 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 44 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 46 of 91 | 50% | 25 of 67 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 46 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 86 | 43% | 27 of 72 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 37 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 53 of 113 | 46% | 38 of 97 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 31 of 59 | 52% | 23 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 28 of 61 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.
Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.
Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.
JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.
Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 97 of 130 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 9:06 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 38 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 51 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 14 of 24 | 58% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 18 of 32 | 56% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 13 of 21 | 61% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 4 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 11 | 72% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)
Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.
Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.
Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.
Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.
Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 70 of 201 | 34% | 80 of 216 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 83 of 188 | 44% | 88 of 195 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 65 | 30% | 26 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 23 of 56 | 41% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 30 of 68 | 44% | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 70 of 201 | 34% | 44 of 164 | 21 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 63 of 193 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 83 of 188 | 44% | 63 of 161 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 19 | 76 of 172 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 13 of 48 | 27% | 8 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 30 of 64 | 46% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 65 | 30% | 11 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 23 of 56 | 41% | 20 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 10 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 88 | 42% | 25 of 73 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 83 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 30 of 68 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.
Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.
Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.
Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.
Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.
Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 81 of 207 | 39% | 91 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 89 of 246 | 36% | 89 of 246 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 15 of 54 | 27% | 15 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 81 of 207 | 39% | 51 of 162 | 20 of 31 | 10 of 14 | 79 of 205 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 89 of 246 | 36% | 48 of 187 | 22 of 36 | 19 of 23 | 88 of 243 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 19 of 45 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 13 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 22 of 57 | 38% | 11 of 39 | 4 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 17 of 43 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 24 of 59 | 40% | 15 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 15 of 54 | 27% | 9 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 15 of 45 | 33% | 9 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 16 of 41 | 39% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 13 of 34 | 38% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 12 of 35 | 34% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.
Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.
Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.
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