Career Averages - Stephen Thompson
Career Averages - Vicente Luque
Stephen Thompson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 42 of 92 | 45% | 78 of 135 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 40 of 72 | 55% | 55 of 93 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 5:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:11 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 29 of 47 | 61% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 22 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 42 of 92 | 45% | 21 of 61 | 14 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 37 of 83 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 40 of 72 | 55% | 12 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 30 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 6 of 24 | 25% | 1 of 13 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 14 of 24 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 16 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 29 of 47 | 61% | 18 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 16 of 30 | 53% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-380); Thompson (+310)
Round 1
The final two battles will have the betting favorite of each 15 years younger than their respective underdog. Former title challenger Thompson (17-8-1, 12-8-1 UFC) knows at the age of 42, his time at welterweight is running out. Meanwhile, at 27, Bonfim (17-1, 4-1 UFC) is ready for his meteoric rise. Depending on the Brazilian’s strategy, a number of different types of fights could play out. Like referee Blake Grice, we will see how this interesting stylistic clash plays out shortly. They sportingly clap hands.
Thompson strikes first with a low calf kick. He goes to the same spot again, and Bonfim answers him back three times. They keep chopping at one another until Thompson kicks high. Thompson tries a spin kick that buzzes past his target, and Bonfim stays composed working on the lead leg. Bonfim brushes the side with a kick, and Thompson kicks him back much harder. Bonfim is quick to get in and out with his speedy kicks, allowing him to dodge a side kick aimed at his face. Thompson does not budge or flinch at what is offered at him, allowing Bonfim to chip away at his calf because it is primarily his only weapon. Bonfim shoots, a full-throated double, and he grasps Thompson from behind, lifts him up and slams him down. Thompson works his way back to his feet, and Bonfim chucks him right back down like a side of beef.
Bonfim starts to pursue a rear-naked choke, and he climbs on the back of “Wonderboy” and forces him to lower himself to a knee. Bonfim only has a face crank, but he is squeezing with all of his might as he is still relatively fresh. Thompson breaks free, and the crowd erupts as Thompson starts beating on Bonfim. Bonfim still works his way back to his feet, ignoring the short knees aimed at his torso to lean on the karateka. Thompson breaks out of the tie-up and grins, and he is quick to launch a head kick at the Brazilian. Thompson walks his foe down, landing a body kick and potshotting him with distant strikes. Bonfim reaches him with a left hook, and a second when Thompson is backing up wobbles Thompson briefly. “Wonderboy” checks a calf kick, and he kicks high while Bonfim spins. They collide legs together, and then smile and high-five as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Round 2
Bonfim forgets his mouthpiece between rounds, and he is able to replace it before they get started. Thompson is able to stay at a safe enough range, just missing with a hook kick but scoring his calf kick. Bonfim’s head kick slaps off Thompson’s hand, and he changes levels and shoots for a double, which turns quickly into a single. Thompson defends by pushing off the fence and the back of Bonfim’s neck to shut it down. Thompson gets free, and he is free to kick before marching in with two straight punches. He checks a kick, and a second lands. Bonfim intercepts a blitzing Thompson with a hard left hook, but Thompson’s chin holds up just fine as he digs a kick to the ribs. Thompson kicks it a little higher to slam into the raised guard, and he dances out of the way of the swinging Brazilian.
Thompson is able to kick intercept his opponent, his hands still low as can be as he spins with a wheel kick. Bonfim times a takedown shot, and it fails. A second attempt allows Bonfim to get Thompson down for a second, but Thompson bounces back upright with the fence at his side. Bonfim clings to his opponent and takes away all of his weapons, frustrating the crowd and his opponent equally. Thompson frames off with his knee and gets out with 80 seconds to spare. He jabs the body, avoids a left hook and comes back with his own overhand right. Bonfim presses forward, walking into a side kick and taking a head kick clean on the side of the dome. Bonfim takes it like a champ and keeps plodding forward, drilling Thompson in the chin with a stiff right hand. Thompson shakes his head and spins with a kick that Bonfim sees coming. Bonfim knocks Thompson off his feet with a left hand after kicking Thompson’s shin so hard it splits open. Thompson bounces off the floor and pushes through the pain to clobber Bonfim with a massive head kick. Bonfim’s balance nearly gives way, and he blasts him with a second to further hurt him. Thompson tries to finish the job, and Bonfim desperately goes for a takedown he cannot get. Before he gets his finish, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights hug it out to get going, but the mean streak of Bonfim does not go anywhere. Thompson kicks Bonfim in the head several times, slamming into the guard or the side of the head indiscriminately. Blood pours out of the open wound on Thompson’s shin, which leaves Thompson with a slight bloody footprint bouncing around the cage. Bonfim tries to grapple his opponent, resulting in a clinch but no takedown. Instead, he uses heel strikes to pound at the gash on “Wonderboy.” The commentary booth is not amused. When they separate, Thompson looks at his shin and goes “whew,” but promptly throws a head kick from that wounded limb. Bonfim tries to stop the strikes from coming by going after another takedown, and Thompson breaks off much faster this time as he turns Bonfim around on the fence.
The karateka knows his best chance of victory is with his legs, and he brushes the Brazilian’s hair with a wheel kick. Thompson grins and Bonfim smiles back. Thompson blasts Bonfim in the dome about as hard as one possibly can, and the Brazilian tanks it and even tries to offer back his own head kick. Bonfim shoots for a double, putting Thompson on his seat as the crowd rejects his approach and lets him have it. Bonfim hangs on to “Wonderboy” and takes an elbow on the side of the noggin for good measure. Bonfim continues to cling to his adversary rather than do anything more with his position, and Grice asks for them to do something. Thompson spins his man around for a second, but Bonfim is able to leverage him back to a knee. Thompson hits a trip and nearly puts Bonfim down, and Bonfim stands and leans as the fight ends in the clinch. It could go either way, which is something not too many people expected.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Stephen Thompson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to get frustrated with Thompson's range and shoot takedowns, which will be successful due to Thompson's poor takedown defense. He notes Thompson is 42 and was just knocked out, while Bonfim is a finisher with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He thinks the odds are justified.
Big Brady believes Gabriel Bonfim is getting Stephen Thompson at the right time. He notes Thompson is 42, has been finished in his last two losses, and can be taken down. Bonfim has power on the feet and is an opportunistic submission artist. He expects Bonfim to take Thompson down and submit him early, picking a first-round submission.
Connor picks Bonfim confidently, stating that Thompson at 42 no longer has the speed or counter-wrestling to survive a blitz. He notes that Bonfim is fast, dynamic, and can change gears quickly, and that once he takes Thompson down, he will likely finish him quickly. Connor acknowledges that Thompson may make Bonfim look silly for a few minutes, but he cannot sustain it.
The host notes that Thompson is 42 and relies on speed and reflexes, while Bonfim is younger and more dangerous. He believes Bonfim can compete with Thompson on the feet and eventually drag the fight to the ground to find a submission within two rounds. The pick is based on Bonfim's youth and grappling advantage.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is a -410 favorite. He argues that Stephen Thompson's counter-striking style allows opponents to implement their game, and Bonfim's grappling and size advantage will be key. He expects Bonfim to shoot takedowns, chain them, and submit Thompson in the first or second round, comparing it to his submission of Chaos Williams. He dismisses Thompson's takedown defense as underrated but believes Bonfim's relentless grappling will prevail.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Bonfim because Thompson has reverted to a gutsy slugger who can't wrestle, and Bonfim's speed and dynamic grappling will overwhelm him. He notes that Bonfim will likely take Thompson down and finish him, as seen in the Chaos Williams fight. Zane calls the matchup 'slightly cruel but necessary' for Thompson's career stage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 49 of 106 | 46% | 63 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 34 of 93 | 36% | 55 of 117 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 16 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 49 of 106 | 46% | 38 of 93 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 34 of 93 | 36% | 23 of 78 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 82 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 45 | 48% | 18 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight to cap off the prelims, when former welterweight title challenger and famed karateka Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC) looks for one more W before hanging things up altogether. He will come up against a man in Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) who is 11 years his junior, and loves throwing kicks just as much as “Wonderboy.” Before feet meet face, referee Mike Beltran clocks them in, and the combatants bump fists. Buckley moves directly to the center of the cage and starts pressuring the older fighter, and he is still out of range. Buckley swarms his opponent, gets caught with a right hand and lifts “Wonderboy” up with a double to slam him down. Thompson wall-walks to get up after a few seconds, and chants for “Wonderboy” boom deafeningly throughout the Delta Center. Buckley lands an elbow on the inside to break off, and when they split, Thompson kicks his man in the head. Thompson blitzes with a three-punch salvo, knocking Buckley off-balance. When Buckley gathers himself to advance, Thompson is prepared and he drills Buckley upside the head. Buckley crashes the pocket, leading with his head, and he pushes Thompson back with a flurry of fists. Thompson bounces off the fence to reset, tagging Buckley with a body kick and catching him with a right hand. Buckley responds with a single, lifting Thompson’s right leg up but not putting him down. Buckley lands a few punches on the inside before Thompson skirts away, with the karateka scoring on the break. Thompson backs off and connects with a right hand counter, and blood leaks from a cut on the corner of Buckley’s right eye. Buckley rushes at his foe to close in, getting clipped and pushing through it to surge forward and take the fight down. Thompson defends with elbows to the side of the head and fights his way back up without much effort. Buckley tries to hold him against the fence, but Thompson splits off and does not take much on the break. Buckley lunges, landing at the end of his punches, and Thompson shakes them off and is ready to counter. Buckley whiffs when leaping forward, and he gets kicked low and high. Buckley shoots desperately for a takedown, eats an uppercut to push through it, and he tries a second attempt but cannot get the former title challenger down. The horn sound with them in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 2
Thompson reintroduces himself to start off the round with long jabs. Buckley pressures, but he walks face-first into strikes. Thompson splits the guard with a front kick and just misses with an axe kick and a wheel kick, and he scoots away to bounce off the fencing. Buckley gets off a right hand, and Thompson defends by backing off, countering with his own right and setting up several elbows when Buckley shoots. Buckley cannot hold his foe against the cage, and Thompson is able to free himself and get to his preferred distance. Thompson sticks out a lead right hand and backs off, and Buckley times a takedown to take him off his feet. Thompson climbs up with the fence behind him, and he splits up and lands two punches on the break. They trade low kicks, and Buckley’s head kick is easily blocked. Thompson beats Buckley to the punch with two right hands, but Buckley sits down on a final right hand. Buckley comes up short with a high kick, and Thompson prods out a front kick as fans again cheer loudly for him. Thompson splits the guard with a right hand, and he lands a second only to get clipped on the way back. Buckley lunges and catches Thompson a second time before wrapping his hands around Thompson’s waist to wrest him to the mat. Thompson returns to a knee and pops back up, not settling for getting grounded. In the clinch, Buckley knees his man square in the groin. Thompson tells Beltran after a 15-second break he is good to go, and Beltran tells Buckley to be careful before restarting. Thompson leads off with a pair of kicks from his lead leg, and he swats out with a low kick before backing off from a Buckley blitz. Buckley whiffs on a haymaker and a cartwheel kick, and he walks into two sharp, long right hands. The fighters clack heads as they engage, and Thompson is light on his feet to counter a swarming Buckley as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to get started, and Thompson picks up where he left off potshotting. Buckley loads up on a right hand, and he gets his hands on Thompson and catches him with a left. Thompson bounces away, and Buckley goes wild, bursting his way forward throwing caution to the wind. Thompson stays composed and fires off a head kick that is barely blocked in time, and he is met by a charging Buckley. Thompson spins out of the tie-up and rests, sticking Buckley with a right hand and eating one when escaping. Thompson has two strikes blocked before a head kick zooms at him, and he puts out three punches and a body kick before Buckley can give him anything back. Thompson dings him with a right hook and puts up a high guard to defend against a similar strike, and he whips a kick up and rattles Buckley’s noodle.
“New Mansa” shakes his head, and he springs forward to attack, lashing out with a right hook that misses, ducking a counter and launching a missile of a right hand that explodes square on the chin of the karateka. The destructive blow face-plants Thompson, and Beltran sprints in to get between them before Buckley can land anything else.
It only took one from the highlight-reel machine, and any debate about scores is wiped clean off the map. Thompson needs a moment to compose himself, wobbly on the feet, but he comes to and gives it up for the victorious Buckley. This is a massive win for Buckley, who vaults into title contention after punching out “Wonderboy,” and he uses his time on the mic well by calling out Kamaru Usman for an eliminator matchup.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Stephen Thompson R3 2:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.
Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.
Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.
The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.
Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.
Zane agrees that Buckley's wrestling will be decisive. He highlights that Thompson's striking is still sharp but Buckley's physicality and tireless pressure, combined with his improved top control, will overwhelm Thompson. Zane also notes that Buckley could finish via TKO if he maintains top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 73 of 88 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 7:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 16 of 16 | 100% | 48 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:20 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 28 of 36 | 77% | 24 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 25 | 64% | 6 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 12 of 20 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 14 | 71% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 16 of 16 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.
Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.
Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.
Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.
Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.
The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.
Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.
The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 163 of 260 | 62% | 178 of 278 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 119 of 210 | 56% | 123 of 214 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 34 of 47 | 72% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 49 of 70 | 70% | 52 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 40 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 33 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 43 of 76 | 56% | 48 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 48 of 70 | 68% | 52 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 163 of 260 | 62% | 103 of 192 | 42 of 49 | 18 of 19 | 150 of 241 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 119 of 210 | 56% | 52 of 131 | 23 of 29 | 44 of 50 | 97 of 187 | 22 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 34 of 47 | 72% | 21 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 31 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 49 of 70 | 70% | 22 of 39 | 11 of 13 | 16 of 18 | 37 of 57 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 38 of 67 | 56% | 25 of 53 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 33 of 66 | 50% | 16 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 16 | 28 of 61 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 43 of 76 | 56% | 34 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 71 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 25 of 50 | 50% | 9 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 23 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 48 of 70 | 68% | 23 of 42 | 18 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 42 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 24 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-155), Thompson (+135)
Round 1
Less than two months removed from his UFC 279 co-headliner against Khamzat Chimaev, Holland (23-8, 1 NC; 10-5, 1 NC UFC) is back in action again, this time as the main attraction. Getting back to welterweight after that awkward 180-pound switcheroo, this will be fight number four this year for “Trailblazer” compared to the first in 2022 for Thompson (16-6-1, 11-6-1 UFC). One of these two will turn things around and return to the win column at night’s end, and it could be the recently aged 30-year-old Holland or soon-to-be 40 “Wonderboy.” Referee Dan Miragliotta is on the call for this striker’s delight, and the two men who enjoyed one another’s company greatly this week touch ‘em up to commence the final fight of the night. When Thompson kicks, Holland does too. Holland charges recklessly, forcing Thompson to retreat and attempt to counter. Holland’s forward blitz leads to a clinch, and he starts talking to his opponent to tell him to let him go. Thompson obliges and scores a low kick, and he counters Holland over the top with a right hand. Holland ends up closing in with a clinch when trying to surge forward, and Thompson pushes him away and nails Holland with a serious left hand. Holland shakes it off and reaches out with side kicks, and a blow from Holland has opened a cut on the corner of Thompson’s left eye. Holland comes out throwing caution to the wind and engaging wildly, and Thompson is there to brawl and catch him with quicker strikes. Holland gets blasted with another left hand and grins, and he leaps forward to attack. The lunging strikes from Holland open him up to counters, and Holland grins and runs forward to unleash a ferocious overhand right that rocks the karateka. Holland backs his man up to the wall and starts to do work on him, but Thompson pushes off and shakes out the cobwebs. As Holland re-engages, Thompson meets him with a left hand and a speedy head kick. Holland is thrilled by the exchanges, smiling and having a blast, and Thompson is enjoying himself as well. Holland runs forward with a back fist, and “Wonderboy” knocks him back wit ha left. As Thompson fires off a hook kick, Holland times a chopping kick to knock Thompson to the floor. The former title challenger lines up a left hand that rings Holland’s bell, but Holland no-sells the move and allows Thompson to chase him down. They mimic one another’s side stances, and Thompson is there to catch his advancing opponent. Holland fires off a pair of body kick after sprinting at his man, and Thompson responds in kind. Holland lands a few punches to the body, and the horn sounds. The two welterweights high five after an exciting and fun round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The fighters are ready and rearing to go to start off the second round, and they clap hands to initiate the proceedings. Thompson slaps a kick low, and Holland does the same. Thompson skips forward with a straight left hand, but Holland sees it coming and evades it. He does not, however, get out of the way from a high kick that slams him square in the face. Holland takes it on the jaw without budging, a kick that would fell lesser men, and stands firm until Thompson blitzes him. Holland escapes the worse of the damage and tries his own attack, and Thompson escapes in time. Leg kicks are traded fast and furiously, and Holland steps into strike and is countered on the way in. The alternating straight rushes lead to thrilling exchanges, and Thompson boots Holland in the face once more. Thompson pushes the pace and belts Holland with a long series of punches, and Holland fires back but gets rocked and bounces into the wall. Thompson lets him off the hook and does not blow his gas tank, and instead trades head kicks when Holland is ready to come back fighting. Holland counters a body kick with an overhand left, and Thompson checks a low kick. Thompson just misses with a hook kick, and Holland gives chase and walks into two straight punches. “Trailblazer” blazes forward and uses Thompson’s lunges to his advantage and tackles Thompson to the floor. Instead of playing on the ground, Holland stands back up, and invites Thompson to stand back up so they can keep throwing heavy leather. Thompson thanks him for this with a happy glove touch, and he spins with a wheel kick that just pushes past the hair. Thompson doles out a few more solid left hands and head kick, and Holland advances recklessly and puts his hands on his opponent as well. Holland knocks the karateka back and might have hurt him, but Thompson recovers and runs after Holland to lay into him as well. Thompson unleashes a spinning wheel kick that smashes into the head of his foe, and Holland wobbles back as Thompson gives him all he has. Holland tries to throw back with haymakers, and he does enough to make Thompson second-guess his approach. The terrific second frame comes to an end as Holland swings so hard, he falls over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights are grinning from ear to ear, and they high five. Holland tells Thompson to slow down, and Thompson answers him with a high kick and whiffs with a hook kick. Holland jumps forward to break up the stance of his foe, and he settles for a body kick and one to the calf. Thompson whips a kick to the side, and he goes up top as Holland rolls with it and barely evades the worst of it. Thompson scores two solid left hands as Holland attempts to enter the pocket, and they trade kicks as well. Holland pushes forward to strike, and they fall over with another possible tackling takedown from “Trailblazer.” Thompson fights his way up, and they clap hands as they still do not want to take a breath and grapple. When they resume, Thompson lands a side kick and a second knocks Holland off his feet. Thompson lets him back up as well, and they high-five once more. Holland unleashes a low kick, and Thompson is sharper and more elusive as Holland’s hands go wide. Holland wings a head kick, and Thompson answers with a pair of punches and a spinning kick. A second spinning wheel kick misses the mark by a matter of inches, and Holland crashes forward and gets popped with a short left hook. Holland kicks low and swipes high, and Thompson blitzes him and scores a few times over the top. Holland charges, leading with elbows, and they wind up in a clinch that allows Thompson to knee his man in the side a few times. Thompson breaks free and fires off a few punches, and he reaches Holland at the end of a right hand that knocks the head back. Holland appears to be fading, and the punches from Thompson are doing more damage as he pours it on. Holland backs himself up to the wall, and he keeps a high guard up and takes several deep breaths. Holland comes out swinging, and Thompson meets him there and starts unloading on him. Holland takes everything on the chin, and he eats a spinning wheel kick and barely moves. Thompson keeps a bounce in his step, and he spins with another wheel kick. “Trailblazer” comes forward to strike, but he pulls back with his right hand. As the round ends, he walks away looking at the hand, which might be injured.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Holland puts on a poker face and smiles to engage. Thompson starts off with a slapping calf kick, and he pushes off the side of his heel on the chest. When Holland advances, Thompson cracks him with a hook kick, and Holland wears it incredibly well and walks Thompson down to throw hands. A tiring Holland ties Thompson up, and Miragliotta does not need much time before splitting them. Miragliotta does acknowledge that they did clash heads when closing in, which opened up a cut on the bridge of the nose. Thompson splits up and kicks the body, and this liver shot forces an immediate takedown out of his opponent. Holland does not complete it, and Thompson stands back and belts him in the liver one more time. Holland reels and charges for a takedown, and Thompson stops it and stands him up to work on his midsection. Thompson throws a right hand on the beltline, and Holland leans over and Miragliotta waves the fight off. As Holland protests, Miragliotta un-calls the fight and claims it was an accidental groin strike. Holland recovers, whether it was a foul or not, and they resume the action unexpectedly. Thompson knows his man is on the ropes and he kicks the liver twice, and spins with a wheel kick with a heel that drills right into the temple. Holland is hurt but still surviving, throwing a few punches but largely getting wrecked. “Wonderboy” aims two head kicks that do serious damage, and Holland absorbs another spinning wheel kick as Thompson is styling on him. Holland motions for him to come close to him to strike, and Thompson obliges with several punches and a low kick. Thompson fires a side kick to the liver and one to the upper chest, and he is teeing off on the wounded Holland. Holland is little more than a heavy bag at this point, as Thompson takes one or two back for every dozen or so. Thompson swings a spinning wheel kick that nearly knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet, but Holland not only survives, he throws back with a vengeance. Thompson takes several on the jaw and backs off, and he measures his damaged adversary with long kicks and punches. Thompson lines up a left hand that drops Holland to a knee, and he moves into the top position and lands a few punches. Instead of trying to finish the job, Thompson stands up, lets Holland get up, and walks off. The round ends. Holland again walks back to his corner, battered and bruised, and he signals to his team that his right hand is in dire trouble. It does not take more than a few seconds for Holland’s corner to inform Miragliotta that their fighter is done, and they call off the fight. It might seem like an anticlimactic ending to a sensational and dramatic battle, but Holland’s team allows him to live to fight another day. This battle will definitely go down among the greatest fights of this year, with 20 minutes of bloody violence and terrific skill crackling with intensity on display. Jiri Prochazka vs. Glover Teixeira might be challenged for the top spot after this titanic scrap.
In his post-fight interview, “Wonderboy” says he feels 25, and he is in it for the long haul. At 39 years young after a fight like that, Thompson proves he is still a factor in the welterweight division. It’s anyone’s guess what is next for the all-star karateka, as he showed he has plenty of life left in his veins. When he competes again, we will certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
The Official Result
Stephen Thompson def. Kevin Holland R4 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
Angelo picks Stephen Thompson but is hesitant due to Thompson's age (39). He thinks Thompson is the better overall striker with incredible footwork, but notes the fight is basically a pick'em, so he won't bet the moneyline. He plans to wait for props, possibly betting Kevin Holland inside the distance or decision no action, because Holland is younger and dangerous. He expects Thompson to win but won't risk moneyline on a 39-year-old.
Big Brady picks Holland to win by knockout in the second or third round, citing Holland's youth (nine years younger), height, reach, power, durability, and Thompson's age (39) and layoff. He notes Thompson has been knocked down multiple times and Holland has never been knocked out. He also mentions Holland may mix in takedowns.
Cody agrees with Paul and provides extensive reasoning. He highlights that Holland's path to victory is to fight in a way he never does, while Thompson's karate style, output, and five-round experience favor him. He notes Thompson's takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Holland will exploit it. He also mentions the line moving towards Holland as a reason to take Thompson now.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to knock out Stephen Thompson. He notes Thompson's age (approaching 40), suspect chin, and history of being dropped (by Ellenberger, Woodley, Till). He believes Holland's straight right will find the opening and that Holland closes the show when he hurts opponents. He also mentions Thompson's submission defense is good but that Holland's reach and power are key.
The host leans towards Thompson, noting that Thompson is a superior striker and should have the advantage in a striking match. He mentions that Thompson's karate style and ability to hit without getting hit will be key. However, he is cautious about Thompson's age and the possibility of Holland using grappling. He would prefer a better price on Thompson (plus 150) before betting.
Paul sees this as a 50/50 fight but likes Thompson at plus money. He notes Thompson's five-round experience and thinks Holland won't shoot takedowns effectively. He believes Thompson can edge out a decision or even finish if Holland gets frustrated. He also mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a possibility.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing Thompson's lack of a backup plan if he faces trouble on the feet. He notes Holland can mix in grappling and has a reach advantage. He predicts Holland will use his goofy style to catch Thompson off guard and finish him by d'arce choke in round three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 51 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 58 of 95 | 61% | 171 of 271 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 11:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 64 of 111 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 42 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 65 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 19 of 32 | 59% | 14 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 58 of 95 | 61% | 56 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 84 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 10 of 16 | 62% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 44 of 72 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 64 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.
Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.
Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.
The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.
Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.
The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 101 of 126 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 59 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 29 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 18 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 27 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 45 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 29 of 43 | 67% | 17 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 19 of 53 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Stephen Thompson | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 9 of 29 | 31% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 11 of 13 | 84% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Stephen Thompson | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The co-main event comes in the form of a potential welterweight title eliminator between recent challenger Burns (19-4, 12-4 UFC) and “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-4-1, 11-4-1 UFC). This interesting style matchup that presents a striker against a grappler – but that grappler has heavy hands – could provide for some intriguing action. Looking on is referee Marc Goddard, and there is nothing but respect between these two 170-pounders who touch gloves to seal the cage. Thompson keeps a traditionally wide stance, and Burns mimics the same stance as the two try to find a way in. Neither throw a single strike for the first 45 seconds, when Thompson lands a light leg kick. Burns ducks down to throw an overhand right, and he tries to chase “Wonderboy” down and land a huge shot and a head kick, but they come up short. Burns dives low for a single, and Thompson defends against the fence and fights off a subsequent double leg takedown attempt as well. Burns continues to grind in this position as the crowd starts to turn on the fighters, so Burns knees Thompson in the thigh a few times. This stalemate continues as Goddard calls for them to work, so Burns drops down for another takedown try that comes up short. Burns picks up a single and lifts Thompson up to set him down, where he finally gets the takedown he was seeking. Burns hold on from a half guard position as he looks to tie up an arm-triangle choke, and when “Wonderboy” scoots to the fence, Burns lands a few right hands on him. Burns has the karateka locked down in this position, keeping him grounded as Thompson tries to work his way up the fence. Thompson posts off a hand to get to his knees, and Burns thumps him in the chest with a hard knee. Burns delivers right hands on the chin until Thompson stands up, and the two men break away with seconds to go. As Burns charges in, Thompson clips Burns with a right hand, and drops Burns to a knee. When Burns stands up, Thompson fires off a head kick, and the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
The glove touch begins the second round, and “Wonderboy” starts off with a solid kick to Burns’ calf. Thompson switches stances and avoids a head kick to come up short with a spinning back kick of his own. Thompson whiffs on a series of punches, as Burns backs off to a safe distance before re-engaging to fire off a right hand. Thompson gets off a kick to the body, and Burns returns fire with a leg kick. “Wonderboy” irritates his foe with a few side kicks to the leg and body, and he parries a leaping Burns with ease. Thompson’s toes reach the midsection when he kicks, and he stands tall when Burns kicks his thigh back. Thompson slings a head kick that gets blocked in time, and a spinning heel kick gets through the guard and may have hurt Burns. Burns charges like a man possessed, throwing caution to the wind and catching Thompson on the end of a right hand. “Wonderboy” hops out of the way and stings Burns with a straight left hand, splitting the guard and making Burns retreat. The karate fighter kicks the lead leg, follows it with a few punches, and ignores a leg kick that comes his direction. When Burns advances, Thompson is there with a side kick to the chest to push the Brazilian back. Thompson pulls his leg free when Burns advances to take him down, and he circles out to crack Burns with a right hand. Thompson stays elusive and defensive as he reaches a right hand out, and Burns intercepts him with a leg kick and a right hand. Burns leaps forward and hits a takedown from a long distance, putting Thompson on his seat against the fence. Thompson returns to a knee at the 10-second clapper, and both men start clubbing each other with right hands like a grounded version of Frye-Takayama until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights touch both hands to begin the last round, and “Wonderboy” steps back to get off a head kick that is partially blocked. A side kick that follows splits Burns’ guard and smacks him in the face, and Thompson looks to follow it up with a few lunging punches. Burns walks right into a right hand, and Burns smiles at him and gets punched a few more times as his smile fades. Thompson has Burns backpedaling as he lands whenever he throws a strike, and Burns is stuck watching the karateka do work on him. Burns takes a flush spinning heel kick to the side of the head and drops to a knee, and when he scrambles back to his feet, he throws hands with reckless abandon. Thompson welcomes it and lands a few more strikes as he backs away to a safe distance, and Burns crashes in to try to take him down. The attempt fails, but the redoubled effort for Burns puts Thompson on his back in side control. With Burns content to sit in this position as precious seconds tick off the clock, both men punch one another in the side again and again. Burns holds tight to keep “Wonderboy” stuck on the ground, pulling Thompson’s wrist out when the American looks to stand back up. Burns embraces the grind to pepper Thompson with short left hands, racking up control time and scoring points with these punches. Thompson tries to pull himself back up, but Burns is on him like fly paper until he wraps his arm around Thompson’s neck. Thompson sits down instead of falling into this choke, and Burns elects to blatantly punch him several times to the back of the head and neck. The crowd does not appreciate this final exchange, and the fans shower the Brazilian with boos as the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Wonderboy, citing his in-and-out karate style and excellent distance management. He thinks Burns will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Thompson's recent performances have been phenomenal, especially against Geoff Neal. He plans to bet Thompson by stoppage or decision no action, expecting a decision but hedging.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson to win by knockout, specifically a third-round knockout. He highlights Thompson's striking advantage, range management, and takedown defense (78%). He notes that Burns will struggle to close the distance and take Thompson down, and that failing to get takedowns will gas Burns. He compares it to Burns' fight with Dan Hooker, where Hooker picked Burns apart. He also mentions Thompson's durability, having only been knocked out once by a fluke.
Cody picks Thompson, citing his superior striking, range, cardio, and speed. He notes Burns' power and puncher's chance but questions his durability and cardio. He mentions Thompson's takedown defense and the big cage favoring him. He thinks Thompson wins by decision, possibly hurting Burns.
Daniel Levi picks Stephen Thompson (Wonderboy) to win. He believes Thompson will control the minutes with his striking, using sidekicks, jabs, and picking Burns apart. He notes that Burns has poor striking defense and gets hit too much, which is dangerous against a precise striker like Thompson. He acknowledges Burns' one-punch knockout power and elite jiu-jitsu, but thinks Thompson's takedown defense and toughness will hold up. He also questions Burns' mindset coming off a title loss.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating there are different levels even among top-five fighters. He believes Thompson's length and movement will give Burns fits, similar to how Usman's jab troubled Burns. He doesn't see Burns getting close enough to grapple and expects Thompson to win a decision.
I'm on Wonderboy Thompson here. I think Burns' wins at 170 are over the hill fighters like Woodley, Maia, and Gunnar Nelson. Thompson's movement, blitz attacks, and ability to fight from both stances will give Burns fits. Burns will struggle to take Thompson down and will slow down from whiffing. I expect Thompson to knock him out, probably in the third round. I like Thompson by KO and round 3 props.
Paul picks Thompson, agreeing with Cody. He emphasizes Thompson's movement, the big cage, and his ability to frustrate pressure fighters. He notes Burns' cardio issues and the fact that Thompson has faced better wrestlers. He thinks Thompson wins by decision.
The Guru picks Thompson by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Burns to come out aggressive in the first round, landing leg kicks and some big shots, possibly wobbling Thompson, but Thompson will invest in sidekicks to the body and leg. In the second round, Burns will become more patient and run into Thompson's point-fighting striking game, with Thompson defending takedowns and circling out. By the third round, Burns will be a shell of himself, and Thompson will pick him apart from the outside. The Guru believes Burns will blow his wad early and fail to get the finish, leading to a decision loss.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 171 of 406 | 42% | 191 of 428 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 85 of 179 | 47% | 110 of 205 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 7 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 33 of 80 | 41% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 35 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 5 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 49 of 115 | 42% | 54 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 171 of 406 | 42% | 124 of 354 | 41 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 165 of 398 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 85 of 179 | 47% | 71 of 161 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 79 of 169 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 25 of 66 | 37% | 15 of 54 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 7 of 30 | 23% | 6 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 30 of 70 | 42% | 17 of 57 | 12 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 25 | 60% | 8 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 33 of 80 | 41% | 27 of 72 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 76 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 33 | 45% | 13 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 34 of 75 | 45% | 25 of 65 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 72 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Stephen Thompson | 49 of 115 | 42% | 40 of 106 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 48 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 33 of 60 | 55% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal to win the main event, rounding out his lineup. He expresses high confidence, stating 'I'm very confident and Jeff Neal get the job done.' No specific reasoning is given beyond confidence.
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal over Stephen Thompson, citing Neal's youth (7 years younger), higher volume, and ability to close distance in the smaller cage. He notes Thompson's low volume in past fights and his history of being dropped (four times in UFC). Brady predicts Neal will knock out Thompson in the second round, emphasizing Neal's power and speed advantage.
The host believes Wonderboy's karate stance, in-and-out movement, and counter-striking will give Geoff Neal problems. He notes Neal has never faced a striker of Thompson's caliber and may struggle with the range and five-round pace. The host predicts a late finish (round 4 or 5) as Neal's gas tank fades.
The Guru picks Stephen Thompson, citing his superior striking and movement. He believes Thompson's footwork and reach advantage will neutralize Geoff Neal's power, especially over five rounds. He notes Neal has gassed in past fights and has only beaten plodding strikers, while Thompson's unorthodox style will be too much. He predicts a 49-46 unanimous decision, with Neal possibly winning the first round but Thompson dominating the rest.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 138 of 242 | 57% | 138 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 77 of 175 | 44% | 77 of 175 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 51 of 91 | 56% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 1 | 55 of 101 | 54% | 55 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 14 of 47 | 29% | 14 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 138 of 242 | 57% | 111 of 212 | 21 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 126 of 227 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 12 |
| Vicente Luque | 77 of 175 | 44% | 26 of 107 | 9 of 18 | 42 of 50 | 76 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 32 of 50 | 64% | 25 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 30 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 38 of 67 | 56% | 10 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 26 | 37 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 51 of 91 | 56% | 43 of 82 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 50 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 25 of 61 | 40% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 9 | 14 of 18 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 55 of 101 | 54% | 43 of 88 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 |
| Vicente Luque | 14 of 47 | 29% | 7 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Vicente Luque - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 12 of 28 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 12 of 28 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.
Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.
Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.
Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.
Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.
James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.
Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.
Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 30 of 99 | 30% | 31 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 89 of 148 | 60% | 197 of 288 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 21 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 48 of 72 | 66% | 122 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 37 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 30 of 99 | 30% | 16 of 74 | 6 of 13 | 8 of 12 | 30 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 89 of 148 | 60% | 74 of 130 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 55 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 48 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 21 of 65 | 32% | 11 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 21 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 38 of 67 | 56% | 30 of 56 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 48 of 72 | 66% | 42 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 48 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-550); Luque (+400)
Round 1
Although his Fight Finder profile says he is from Westwood, New Jersey, Luque (23-11-1, 16-7 UFC) calls Brazil home as he moved there when he was young. He will have a full contingent of fan support behind him to take on ex-lightweight finisher Alvarez (22-3, 7-2 UFC), who somehow looks larger than the man who has made 170 pounds for the lion’s share of his career. The third man in the Octagon for this all-action clash will be referee Osiris Maia, and he bears witness to a sporting glove touch before the frenzy begins.
Alvarez sticks out his jab, and he parries a front kick. Luque swings his way forward, and the former lightweight swats his hands out of the air. Luque sits down on a low kick that forces a stance switch, and Alvarez responds with a straight let hand that marks up Luque’s nose. They connect with single strikes, with Alvarez relying on his power jab to set things up. Luque works his way in and scores once before Alvarez backs him off with his own attack. Luque again commits to a hard low kick, and he snaps the head back with a left hand. Alvarez stays composed and calm, and he jabs to string three punches after it. Luque drives home a low kick, and he rips a right hand over the top. Luque’s calf kick is doing damage, and Alvarez pushes him away as the knuckle of his thumb drills into Luque’s eye socket. Maia calls time, and Luque practically collapses to his knees in pain. The replay shows that the strike was legal, and Maia calls off the fight to award Alvarez the TKO win…and then uncalls it, giving Luque time to see the doctor. This fight should be over, as the strike was a legal one so Luque should not be given time to recover. The complete and utter failure in regulation allows Luque 90 seconds to clear his vision, and the fight somehow continues.
When they resume, Luque knows his time is limited, so he lets loose with short but effective flurries. Alvarez strikes back with a vengeance, but Luque reaches him and lands flush several times. Alvarez gets off an especially effective front kick, and the two calm down for a bit. Luque’s eye is showing some serious damage, and Alvarez gets back to action by targeting the right side of Luque’s head with a kick and a number of punches. The round ends, despite what happened earlier.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Round 2
The two have reached the second round. Alvarez wants to finish the job…again, and he starts it with a barrage of punches, a high kick and a wheel kick as well. Alvarez takes time to celebrate his handiwork, staying out of range for Luque’s blitzes. Alvarez chains punches into a body kick, and Luque tries for a takedown and is shoved to his back. The Spanish fighter briefly considers a brabo choke, and he lets it go to slam his fists into Luque’s face. Alvarez lowers himself down for a much tighter brabo, and Luque twists and manages to survive, but he is under fire. Alvarez drops down punches any target he can find with Luque pulling guard to get Alvarez close to him, and Alvarez thanks him for this by belting him with 12-to-6 elbows.
Alvarez elbows Luque in the thigh to open up his guard, and he advances to half guard and smacks Luque around with more elbows. Luque clings to Alvarez’ left arm while doing practically nothing else on his knees, and Alvarez methodically pounds on him. Maia stands idly by as Luque takes a beating, and Alvarez hangs on from above to keep Luque from escaping. Alvarez’ elbows open things up further for him, and Luque can only answer with a leglock that Alvarez completely ignores until the horn sounds. The only question is whether that round, one that should not have happened in the first place, will be a 10-9 or a 10-8.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Round 3
Doctors and Maia check in on Luque’s condition between rounds, with his right eye swelling and damaged. He is cleared to resume even though it sounds like he says his eye is
not working
, and they both flick jabs at one another. As if he does not want to cause more harm to his opponent, Alvarez takes his foot largely off the gas, while dancing away from the labored offense hurled his way. Luque is the more active of the two, but he will most certainly need a finish barring an aberrant scorecard. The fighters trade low kicks, and Alvarez’ brushes the cup. Luque signals he is fine, and he keeps out of range until shooting in for a single.
Alvarez defends it without issue, and he slithers his legs around Luque’s neck for an inverted triangle. Luque signals a thumbs-up that the choke is not too tight, and Alvarez is sitting on him in a precarious position unable to land with much as Luque has the back of his neck and spine presented. Alvarez chills out on top of Luque, completely nullifying the veteran, and the crowd does not love what is transpiring in the cage. Alvarez cranks on Luque’s toes to no effect, and he smacks Luque in the side again and again until the Brazilian turns over. Alvarez concludes the match with hammerfists to the face, and they have heard the final bell. At least it’s over, but Alvarez’ 100% finish rate is no more.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Vicente Luque via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'Vicente 2.0' and stating that the current version of Vicente is older, slower, and chinnier. He believes Joel will likely finish Vicente on the feet or ground. He notes Vicente's only chance is if Joel doesn't defend takedowns, but still picks Joel.
Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win dominantly by first-round submission. He expresses serious concerns about Vicente Luque's durability and mentality after a brain bleed and a quit against Buckley. He notes Alvarez is moving up to welterweight, which is overdue, and will be much bigger. Brady sees multiple paths to victory: hurting Luque on the feet, Luque shooting in and getting submitted, or Luque looking for a way out.
Cody picks Alvarez but with hesitancy due to the weight move and Luque's toughness. He notes Alvarez's momentum and Luque's recent struggles, but worries about the physical matchup. He likes Alvarez to finish but sees limited value at the current price.
James is confident Alvarez will steamroll Luque, citing Alvarez's superior durability, power, and striking arsenal. He notes Luque's likely grappling attempts but believes Alvarez's submission threats from his back will be decisive. He predicts a first-round finish and suggests betting on Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.
Lucrative James is confident in Joel Alvarez, citing his youth, power, and submission skills. He notes Vicente Luque's age and fight mileage, including a brain bleed. He expects Alvarez to finish Luque, likely by submission, as Luque has been submitted before. He likes the submission prop at +175.
Manpreet is confident in Alvarez, citing Luque's decline due to wear and tear, and Alvarez's youth, power, and finishing ability. He notes Alvarez's height and reach advantages, and believes Alvarez can finish Luque early, possibly by KO in round one. He recommends Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds as betting options.
Paul picks Joel Alvarez, believing Vicente Luque is shot and has changed his style after knockouts. He notes Alvarez's pressure, length, and cardio, and expects him to finish Luque via submission or TKO. He acknowledges the weight move but sees Alvarez as the better fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez over Vicente Luque, citing Alvarez's size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes Luque has been in many wars and is aging, while Alvarez is a talented lightweight moving up. He predicts a TKO finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 39 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 24 of 46 | 52% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 26 of 56 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 22 of 40 | 55% | 13 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 35 of 64 | 54% | 23 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 46 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)
Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.
Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.
The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.
Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Themba Gorimbo | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Themba Gorimbo | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gorimbo (-162), Luque (+136)
Round 1
The non-stop preliminary action continues with a welterweight contest that some are considering a “passing of the torch” bout—except the two are the same age. With far more fight miles, Luque (22-10-1, 15-6 UFC) is the grizzled veteran, while Gorimbo (14-4, 4-1 UFC) has the appearance of a fresh-eyed prospect and currently rides a four-fight win streak in the Octagon. The action begins with referee Mark Smith watching over the 170ers, and they elect not to touch gloves. Both men kick at one another, with Gorimbo doubling up on a low kick and putting another leg kick after a one-two. Luque unloads a short, fierce right hand and catches Gorimbo on the side of the head with a left, knocking Gorimbo down to the floor. Gorimbo springs forward on his knees, and
Luque latches onto a guillotine that he transitions into a brabo choke and then an anaconda choke that is tight in a hurry. Gorimbo rolls to try to escape the submission, and Luque turns with him to lock the maneuver down completely. With nowhere to go and the blood supply cut off from his head, Gorimbo goes out fast.
Smith is paying close attention and intervenes as soon as Gorimbo loses consciousness. This is an important victory for “The Silent Assassin,” who proves that he is nowhere near done, shutting Gorimbo’s lights out in under a minute.
The Official Result
Vicente Luque def. Themba Gorimbo R1 0:52 via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Angelo picks Themba Gorimbo, believing the formula to beat Vicente Luque is to take him down, and Gorimbo has the wrestling and cardio to do so. He notes Luque's best days may be behind him after a brain bleed and a loss to Joaquin Buckley. However, he acknowledges Luque is the best fighter Gorimbo has faced and there could be a level gap. He is cautious but leans Gorimbo.
Cody picks Luque, citing his superior striking and submission threat. He notes Gorimbo's limited game and reliance on physicality. He expects Luque to out-strike and potentially submit Gorimbo, though he acknowledges Luque's chin issues.
Connor picks Luque despite acknowledging that Luque is aging and has slowed down, while Gorimbo is a confident, aggressive wrestler with surprising speed. He notes that Gorimbo's game is fundamentally messy and that Luque's level of competition has been much higher. Connor also mentions that Gorimbo is on short notice and that Luque's losses are to elite welterweights. He admits it's a weird pick but hopes Luque wins because Gorimbo's fights are horrible to watch.
Daniel picks Gorimbo because he believes Luque is mentally and physically compromised after a brain bleed. He notes Luque's hesitancy and poor recent performances, while Gorimbo is hungry and will push the pace. He expects an ugly decision win for Gorimbo.
Luque is a much depleted and diminished version of himself recently, reacting badly to shots from Buckley. Gorimbo can put on just as much power and eventually find that big shot to put Luque away. I like the under 2.5 rounds and pick Gorimbo by knockout.
Paul picks Luque, emphasizing his technical striking and experience. He notes Gorimbo's takedown-heavy style but thinks Luque's scrambling and submission defense will neutralize him. He sees Luque as the more polished fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo despite being a huge Luque fan. He worries about Luque's chin and ability to handle being put on his back, and thinks Luque is overthinking. He sees Gorimbo taking Luque down and Luque second-guessing himself on the feet. He admits he may regret this pick and will only pick Luque again after he wins.
Zane also picks Luque, but with hesitation. He agrees that Luque is shopworn and has taken a lot of damage, but he believes Gorimbo's game is too bad for Luque to lose to. He notes that Gorimbo is a 'swing and cling' wrestler with poor fundamentals, and that Luque's losses are to elite fighters. Zane is concerned that if Gorimbo wrestles and stalls, Luque could get tired and lose an ugly decision, but he ultimately picks Luque because he hopes he wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 22 of 65 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 55 of 131 | 41% | 63 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 42 | 35% | 15 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 40 of 88 | 45% | 48 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 21 of 63 | 33% | 7 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 21 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 55 of 131 | 41% | 42 of 112 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 21 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 42 | 35% | 4 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 15 of 43 | 34% | 7 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 6 of 21 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 40 of 88 | 45% | 35 of 79 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luque (-112), Buckley (-108)
Round 1
Buckley and Luque engage, with referee Keith Peterson charged with keeping things clean, though the odds are against him, if the first 11 fights are any indication. Luque is orthodox, Buckley southpaw but switching stances constantly. They exchange low kicks in the early going, with Buckley landing a body kick as well. Luque sticks out the jab, trying to keep the shorter man from getting into punching range. Luque lands a leg kick, and Buckley answers with a pair of punches upstairs. Luque fires off another low kick, and Buckley responds with punches once again, which Luque does not appear to like. They both bounce into the pocket at the same time and Luque goes down, but it appears to be a combined slip and collision rather than a knockdown strike. Luque gets back up and goes on the offensive, backing Buckley up with punches. Luque shoots for a takedown at the 10-second clapper, but can’t finish before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Buckley reaches out with long kicks to the leg and body. They exchange a flurry of punches at close range, most of which are blocked. Buckley jumps in with a knee that glances. Luque goes for a takedown but Buckley sprawls well. Buckley walks Luque down and lands a blistering pair of punches that have an effect despite landing on Luque’s arms. Buckley reaches out with a head kick that slaps off the high guard.
Luque shoots a slow double-leg, then pulls guard when Buckley pancakes it. Buckley fires off punches from half guard, some of which split Luque’s raised arms and do damage. Luque tries to get to a better position, but Buckley keeps firing away, and as Luque is not giving anything back and has gone completely into his shell, referee Peterson has seen enough, moving in for the stoppage.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Vicente Luque R2 3:17 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Vicente Luque despite admitting he has been a Luque hater. He notes Luque's impressive wrestling against RDA and his overall skills. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley is dangerous and funny but thinks Luque's mix of striking and wrestling will give him the edge.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by second-round knockout. He believes prime Luque would destroy Buckley, but Luque has taken significant damage, suffered a brain bleed, and admitted to being scared to get hit in his last fight. Brady thinks Luque's durability is compromised and Buckley's power will finish him.
Cody likes Luque's volume and pace, believing he can outwork Buckley who tends to fade. He notes Luque's wrestling as a new wrinkle but thinks the path to victory is through pressure and output. He acknowledges the risk of Buckley's power but sees Luque as the better fighter at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley at +124, continuing his fade of Vicente Luque. He cites Luque's history of taking massive damage, the brain bleed, and his struggles against southpaws. He believes Buckley's footwork, speed, and southpaw stance will frustrate Luque, and that Luque's chin may be compromised. He acknowledges Luque's power but thinks Buckley can avoid the left hook and win a decision or late finish.
Luque is more skilled and talented than Buckley, with a nasty leg kick that can sap Buckley's power. He may mix in grappling to nullify Buckley's speed and power advantage. Luque's veteran experience and ability to pressure in later rounds should be decisive. Buckley is a power puncher but Luque can implement leg kicks and potentially finish inside two rounds. The minus 115 line is a steal for a fighter of Luque's caliber.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Luque's wrestling from the RDA fight and his overall well-rounded game. He thinks Luque can take Buckley down and remove his explosive striking, making him a solid play at even money.
The host picks Vicente Luque to win by KO in round two. He believes Buckley will get overconfident and throw wild hooks, while Luque will cover up and counter with hooks from his guard. He notes Luque's tight guard and ability to take a punch. He predicts Luque will crack Buckley on the chin and put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 72 of 141 | 51% | 138 of 221 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 94 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 32 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 72 of 141 | 51% | 48 of 115 | 17 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 60 of 127 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 66 of 136 | 48% | 42 of 108 | 19 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 105 | 26 of 27 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 18 of 39 | 46% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 17 of 26 | 65% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.
Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.
James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.
Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.
Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 97 of 203 | 47% | 97 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 2 | 121 of 211 | 57% | 125 of 215 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 30 of 80 | 37% | 30 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 52 of 93 | 55% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 51 of 91 | 56% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 40 of 75 | 53% | 43 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 97 of 203 | 47% | 56 of 156 | 26 of 31 | 15 of 16 | 91 of 195 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 121 of 211 | 57% | 113 of 202 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 103 of 186 | 17 of 22 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 30 of 80 | 37% | 20 of 67 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 52 of 93 | 55% | 48 of 89 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 51 of 91 | 56% | 28 of 68 | 15 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 46 of 85 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 40 of 75 | 53% | 36 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 66 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 16 of 32 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 29 of 43 | 67% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.
Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.
Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.
Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.
The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal as an underdog by 29-28 decision. He thinks Luque takes too long to get going in three-rounders and Neal's power will earn respect. He believes Neal can keep range and avoid brawling, similar to how Randy Brown and Nico Price had success. He predicts Neal wins the first round clearly, edges the second, and survives the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 84 of 184 | 45% | 102 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 60 of 155 | 38% | 136 of 260 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 21 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 13 of 44 | 29% | 41 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 84 of 184 | 45% | 54 of 141 | 6 of 17 | 24 of 26 | 80 of 179 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Vicente Luque | 60 of 155 | 38% | 51 of 141 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 56 of 149 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 14 of 37 | 37% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 16 of 30 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 24 of 46 | 52% | 19 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 20 of 41 | 48% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 13 of 44 | 29% | 10 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 13 of 27 | 48% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad as an underdog, citing Belal's wrestling and fight IQ. He notes that Vicente Luque is dangerous on the feet and has submissions, but Belal can take him down and control the fight. He references Luque's fight with Kiesa where Kiesa had success taking Luque down but got too aggressive. Angelo believes Belal will stick to a wrestling game plan and win a decision.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win, likely by finish. He notes that Luque is dangerous everywhere—on the feet and on the mat—and that Belal Muhammad's wrestling, while improved against Stephen Thompson, may not be enough to control Luque. He points out that Muhammad struggled to take down Diego Lima (1 for 10) and that Luque has solid takedown defense and submission threats. Brady expects Luque to hurt Muhammad and finish him in the second or third round.
Cody picks Luque but with hesitation, noting Belal's impressive wrestling against Wonderboy. He worries about Luque's cardio in a five-round fight and his takedown defense. However, he believes Luque's hand speed and striking will be key, and that Belal's record is deceiving. He sees danger if Belal extends the fight into later rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +155 underdog, emphasizing Belal's ability to adapt game plans, as seen against Stephen Thompson (wrestling) and Demian Maia (striking). He notes Belal's improved lateral movement, feints, and cardio, which should allow him to survive early danger and take over in championship rounds. Levi acknowledges Vicente Luque's elite finishing ability (second most finishes in welterweight history) and the danger of his calf kicks, left hook, and d'arce choke, but believes Belal's discipline, chain wrestling, and refusal to rush submissions will be key. He is concerned about Belal fighting during Ramadan but notes he has done so before and sounded sharp in interviews. Levi states he is biased due to his friendship with Belal but insists his analysis is objective.
Paul favors Vicente Luque, citing his power, finishing ability, and danger in guard if taken down. He notes Luque trains with many wrestlers and believes his striking is superior. He acknowledges Belal's wrestling but thinks Luque's path to victory is clearer, especially with a potential finish.
The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad despite being a big Vicente Luque fan. He believes Muhammad's volume and grappling will disrupt Luque's timing, and that Luque hates volume. He expects Muhammad to wear Luque down and submit him in the fourth or fifth round via rear-naked choke. He also accuses Muhammad of using steroids, citing his physique change.
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