UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier Next Fight
Age 42
Height 5' 11"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Paul Felder
3.7 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Edson Barboza
4.14 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.68 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Paul Felder - Fight History
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 98 of 190 51% 134 of 226 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Paul Felder 0 92 of 162 56% 155 of 231 6 of 22 27% 0 0 14:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Paul Felder 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 29 of 46 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 27 of 47 57% 31 of 51 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Paul Felder 0 13 of 18 72% 28 of 35 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 26 of 55 47% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Paul Felder 0 19 of 41 46% 34 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:54
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 23 60% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 11 of 22 50% 35 of 47 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 98 of 190 51% 64 of 147 20 of 29 14 of 14 76 of 161 21 of 28 1 of 1
Paul Felder 92 of 162 56% 53 of 113 35 of 45 4 of 4 61 of 125 26 of 29 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 45 37% 8 of 33 5 of 8 4 of 4 16 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 22 of 34 64% 13 of 24 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 29 of 46 63% 23 of 38 3 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 38 7 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 27 of 47 57% 19 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 11 3 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 13 of 18 72% 7 of 10 5 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 26 of 55 47% 20 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 1 20 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
Paul Felder 19 of 41 46% 7 of 26 11 of 14 1 of 1 10 of 30 8 of 9 1 of 2
5 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Feb 23, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 110 of 230 47% 119 of 243 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Paul Felder 0 122 of 221 55% 133 of 234 1 of 5 20% 0 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 16 of 42 38% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Paul Felder 0 24 of 46 52% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
2 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 48 54% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 26 of 43 60% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Dan Hooker 0 28 of 57 49% 28 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 39 of 63 61% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
4 Dan Hooker 0 25 of 47 53% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 15 of 36 41% 18 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:50
5 Dan Hooker 0 15 of 36 41% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 18 of 33 54% 24 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 110 of 230 47% 64 of 170 19 of 26 27 of 34 105 of 218 5 of 12 0 of 0
Paul Felder 122 of 221 55% 72 of 161 10 of 13 40 of 47 120 of 217 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 16 of 42 38% 5 of 25 6 of 9 5 of 8 15 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paul Felder 24 of 46 52% 7 of 25 2 of 2 15 of 19 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dan Hooker 26 of 48 54% 10 of 29 6 of 8 10 of 11 25 of 45 1 of 3 0 of 0
Paul Felder 26 of 43 60% 15 of 30 3 of 4 8 of 9 26 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dan Hooker 28 of 57 49% 14 of 39 7 of 8 7 of 10 27 of 51 1 of 6 0 of 0
Paul Felder 39 of 63 61% 29 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8 38 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Dan Hooker 25 of 47 53% 22 of 44 0 of 0 3 of 3 23 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 15 of 36 41% 8 of 29 2 of 2 5 of 5 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Dan Hooker 15 of 36 41% 13 of 33 0 of 1 2 of 2 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Felder 18 of 33 54% 13 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 6 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Paul Felder

Daniel Levi picks Paul Felder to win, citing Felder's durability (never knocked out), better technique throughout the fight, and ability to handle five rounds. He believes Felder's calf kicks and pressure will be key, and that Hooker's confidence from recent wins is overblown. Levi expects Felder to get a late knockout or win a decision, possibly 48-47.

"I just feel like Paul Felder is the better fighter, the tougher fighter, the fighter that's more durable for this war."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

The host picks Dan Hooker, believing he will win the first three rounds and possibly the fourth, though he worries about the new judging emphasis on later rounds. He cites Hooker's reach advantage, technical striking, and improvement, while noting Felder lacks power despite his size and has a one-dimensional game plan. He expects Hooker to use leg kicks, jabs, and body work to secure a unanimous decision.

unanimous decision
"I'm going with down hooker more versatile pool fellas got one game plan and if it doesn't work he's kind of [__] weighed forward and fro shots Dan hookers too technical for that"
WIN vs Edson Barboza
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 60 of 114 52% 77 of 133 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:50
Edson Barboza 0 56 of 154 36% 75 of 174 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 13 of 51 25% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Paul Felder 0 21 of 34 61% 37 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:29
Edson Barboza 0 20 of 46 43% 31 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
3 Paul Felder 0 15 of 26 57% 16 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Edson Barboza 0 23 of 57 40% 28 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 60 of 114 52% 27 of 74 19 of 24 14 of 16 55 of 109 0 of 0 5 of 5
Edson Barboza 56 of 154 36% 41 of 137 9 of 10 6 of 7 51 of 147 1 of 1 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 24 of 54 44% 10 of 35 7 of 11 7 of 8 24 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 13 of 51 25% 9 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Paul Felder 21 of 34 61% 10 of 21 6 of 7 5 of 6 16 of 29 0 of 0 5 of 5
Edson Barboza 20 of 46 43% 13 of 39 4 of 4 3 of 3 16 of 40 0 of 0 4 of 6
3 Paul Felder 15 of 26 57% 7 of 18 6 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 23 of 57 40% 19 of 52 3 of 3 1 of 2 23 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs James Vick
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 61 of 121 50% 69 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
James Vick 0 55 of 119 46% 70 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 22 of 49 44% 23 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
James Vick 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Paul Felder 0 19 of 31 61% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
James Vick 0 12 of 32 37% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Paul Felder 0 20 of 41 48% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
James Vick 0 23 of 40 57% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 61 of 121 50% 24 of 75 16 of 21 21 of 25 57 of 112 4 of 9 0 of 0
James Vick 55 of 119 46% 31 of 79 4 of 8 20 of 32 48 of 109 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 22 of 49 44% 9 of 34 5 of 6 8 of 9 22 of 47 0 of 2 0 of 0
James Vick 20 of 47 42% 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 11 18 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Paul Felder 19 of 31 61% 7 of 15 6 of 9 6 of 7 15 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0
James Vick 12 of 32 37% 7 of 20 2 of 5 3 of 7 10 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Paul Felder 20 of 41 48% 8 of 26 5 of 6 7 of 9 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Vick 23 of 40 57% 12 of 23 2 of 3 9 of 14 20 of 34 3 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Mike Perry
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 56 of 120 46% 64 of 128 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Paul Felder 0 62 of 110 56% 66 of 114 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 22 of 41 53% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Paul Felder 0 23 of 44 52% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Mike Perry 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 17 of 22 77% 18 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:41
3 Mike Perry 0 22 of 45 48% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 22 of 44 50% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 56 of 120 46% 27 of 79 16 of 24 13 of 17 48 of 110 7 of 9 1 of 1
Paul Felder 62 of 110 56% 34 of 78 15 of 18 13 of 14 42 of 86 17 of 21 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 22 of 41 53% 11 of 27 5 of 7 6 of 7 19 of 37 3 of 4 0 of 0
Paul Felder 23 of 44 52% 11 of 30 6 of 8 6 of 6 15 of 32 8 of 12 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 12 of 34 35% 6 of 20 2 of 7 4 of 7 11 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 17 of 22 77% 10 of 15 6 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 14 5 of 5 3 of 3
3 Mike Perry 22 of 45 48% 10 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 41 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 22 of 44 50% 13 of 33 3 of 4 6 of 7 18 of 40 4 of 4 0 of 0
TKO (elbows) R2 4:06 · UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Dec 02, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 6 of 13 46% 12 of 20 2 of 3 66% 2 1 2:51
Charles Oliveira 0 31 of 46 67% 37 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 10 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:17
Charles Oliveira 0 14 of 22 63% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
2 Paul Felder 0 1 of 4 25% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:34
Charles Oliveira 0 17 of 24 70% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 6 of 13 46% 3 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 2 2 of 6
Charles Oliveira 31 of 46 67% 26 of 40 4 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 4 4 of 4 26 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 5
Charles Oliveira 14 of 22 63% 12 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 18
2 Paul Felder 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 1
Charles Oliveira 17 of 24 70% 14 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 13 of 20
WIN vs Stevie Ray
KO (elbows) R1 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Jul 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:45
Stevie Ray 1 23 of 35 65% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:45
Stevie Ray 1 23 of 35 65% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 5 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 23 of 35 65% 14 of 24 7 of 9 2 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 10 12 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 5 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 23 of 35 65% 14 of 24 7 of 9 2 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 10 12 of 18
WIN vs Alex Ricci
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 4:44 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Feb 19, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Felder 1 23 of 71 32% 23 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alex Ricci 0 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Felder 1 23 of 71 32% 23 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alex Ricci 0 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Felder 23 of 71 32% 14 of 57 4 of 7 5 of 7 23 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 4
Alex Ricci 21 of 59 35% 12 of 41 3 of 10 6 of 8 21 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Felder 23 of 71 32% 14 of 57 4 of 7 5 of 7 23 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 4
Alex Ricci 21 of 59 35% 12 of 41 3 of 10 6 of 8 21 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza - Fight History
LOSS vs Jalin Turner
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.

"I'm gonna pick Jaylen Turner here because at this point in their careers, I think he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.

Turner by first round knockout
"I'm going to take Jaylen Turner to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.

"The reason I end up locking in Turner is more so you're you're right. His last fight against Jakar, he goes through the motions."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.

Turner by KO
"I think I have to take Turner honestly, which I can't pick Jaylen Turner after that last performance and not, especially not with all the additional context."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.

"I'm not really sure. Next week, I'll have a pick for y'all on this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.

Jalin Turner inside the distance
"Jaylen Turner inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think he's going to be more than dialed in to go out there and take advantage of the deteriorating durability of Edson Barbosa. Look for Turner to get this fight done within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.

"I don't think Jaylen Turner makes it to the third round, but he's big, he's strong, he's got more than enough power."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Jaylen Turner getting this one done by TKO finish brutally in the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.

"I have to pick him because of that, but man, if this is a Anthony Smith situation, yeah, like it's miss fight against, uh, Dom Reyes, then like he won of Anthony Smith's like last four fights."
LOSS vs Drakkar Klose
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 71 of 120 59% 73 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:50
Drakkar Klose 0 53 of 102 51% 147 of 209 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 24 of 36 66% 26 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Drakkar Klose 0 15 of 29 51% 68 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Edson Barboza 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Drakkar Klose 0 25 of 44 56% 50 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 46 63% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Drakkar Klose 0 13 of 29 44% 29 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 71 of 120 59% 26 of 64 32 of 38 13 of 18 57 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 53 of 102 51% 35 of 78 6 of 9 12 of 15 43 of 89 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 24 of 36 66% 4 of 11 13 of 17 7 of 8 18 of 30 6 of 6 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 15 of 29 51% 8 of 18 1 of 3 6 of 8 13 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 18 of 38 47% 7 of 22 10 of 12 1 of 4 14 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 25 of 44 56% 19 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 46 63% 15 of 31 9 of 9 5 of 6 25 of 42 4 of 4 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 13 of 29 44% 8 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo acknowledges both fighters are older but notes Barboza's striking, speed, and experience against top competition. He thinks Klose could wrestle but hasn't seen enough to suggest Barboza is washed. He leans Barboza but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"I'm going to lean Eden Barbosa here. I've seen that dude step up time and time and time again against some of the best that have ever done it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Big Brady picks Edson Barboza to win by second-round knockout. He notes Barboza is moving back up to lightweight, which should help his durability. He worries about Barboza's chin but thinks Klose doesn't have much power, with only two knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Barboza is the better striker and will knock out Klose, as Klose's path to victory is to sell out for grappling. He also mentions Klose's questionable durability and poor performance against Silva.

Barboza by KO, round 2
"I think Barbosa is the better striker and I think he knocks out Jakar Close. I think he's going to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The host considers Klose one of the most underrated lightweights. He expects Klose to avoid Barboza's early finishing attempts, clinch him against the cage, wear him down, and grind out a decision win on the mat.

"I believe Close is one of the more underrated lightweights on the roster and I think he'll showcase it once again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The Guru picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision, 29-28. He cannot trust Edson Barboza at this point in his career, citing Barboza's long layoff, injuries, and move back up to lightweight. The Guru notes that Barboza took a lot of damage in his last fight against Lerone Murphy and that Klose will grapple and use his physicality. He believes Klose can execute a 'tepid version' of the recipe to beat Barboza and win a decision, though Barboza may have moments of hurting Klose.

Decision win 29-28; Klose wins by decision
"I'm going to go with Dakar Close getting this one done. Decision win 2928."
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–46, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 178 of 351 50% 206 of 397 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:56
Sodiq Yusuff 1 164 of 324 50% 178 of 347 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 42 of 80 52% 55 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:15
Sodiq Yusuff 0 13 of 25 52% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 42 of 79 53% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Sodiq Yusuff 0 31 of 65 47% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 1 32 of 68 47% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
4 Edson Barboza 0 35 of 79 44% 39 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Sodiq Yusuff 0 47 of 90 52% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
5 Edson Barboza 0 30 of 55 54% 40 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 0 41 of 76 53% 41 of 77 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 178 of 351 50% 126 of 284 14 of 20 38 of 47 148 of 311 15 of 18 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 164 of 324 50% 71 of 204 89 of 112 4 of 8 134 of 290 25 of 27 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 42 of 80 52% 39 of 77 3 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 13 of 25 52% 8 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 42 of 79 53% 24 of 56 3 of 6 15 of 17 34 of 69 8 of 10 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 31 of 65 47% 7 of 31 23 of 31 1 of 3 25 of 57 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 58 50% 17 of 42 5 of 7 7 of 9 29 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 32 of 68 47% 14 of 44 16 of 20 2 of 4 27 of 61 0 of 0 5 of 7
4 Edson Barboza 35 of 79 44% 24 of 64 1 of 2 10 of 13 35 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 47 of 90 52% 24 of 63 22 of 26 1 of 1 42 of 85 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Edson Barboza 30 of 55 54% 22 of 45 2 of 2 6 of 8 27 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 41 of 76 53% 18 of 47 23 of 29 0 of 0 28 of 63 13 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo sees this as a razor-thin striking match where youth vs experience is the key factor. He believes Sodiq's speed and youth will give him a slight edge over the 37-year-old Barboza, who is still technical but may have slowed. He notes that if it were a well-rounded MMA fight he'd lean experience, but as a striking match he favors the younger fighter. He plans to just watch rather than bet, calling it even money.

"I'm going to go with sadique YF to be just a little faster just a hair ahead and I think that's going to matter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO in the third round. He notes that Edson Barboza is 37 years old and cutting to featherweight, which is taxing. He worries about Barboza's durability and cardio in a five-round fight, while Yusuff is younger and has power. He expects Yusuff to finish late as Barboza fades.

Yusuff by KO in round 3
"I think it's a late finish here for Yousef third fourth or fifth I'm going to say Yousef does officially knock him out I'll say third round there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza, emphasizing his consistent high-level competition and ability to still perform at an elite level. He highlights Barboza's leg kicks, left hook, and durability, noting that he has never slowed down despite many wars. Cody questions Yusuff's durability and wrestling ability to get Barboza down, and believes Barboza's experience and power will prevail.

"I gotta go dogger pass in this Main Event"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

The host picks Sodiq Yusuff but is hesitant due to the long layoff and herniated disc issues. He notes Yusuff's power and patience, expecting him to land a big shot as Barboza slows down with age. However, he dislikes the minus 170-180 price and prefers to pass on betting. He predicts Yusuff by knockout.

"give me Yousef and Yousef by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza as the underdog, citing his elite striking, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Barboza's ability to land big shots and his consistent performance despite age. Paul is concerned about Yusuff's durability and lack of high-level wins, and believes Barboza's volume and power will be too much.

Bet Edson Barboza at +142
"I just bet Edson Barboza while you were talking cuz I was just like I had a one uh one plus 142"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru leans towards Edson Barboza over Sodiq Yusuff, calling it a close 50/50 fight. He cites Barboza's momentum, size advantage (4-inch reach, taller), and experience in main events. He questions Yusuff's chin, noting he got wobbled by Arnold Allen, and his long layoff due to spinal surgery. He also thinks Yusuff's win over Alex Caceres was mostly low kicks, which won't work against Barboza. However, he expresses frustration that underdogs often win in nonsensical ways, showing low confidence.

"I'll go Ed some baroza over sadique yusf just think Edson babos has got a bit of momentum right now"
KO (knee) R1 2:37 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 16 of 37 43% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 1 34 of 47 72% 182 of 209 4 of 4 100% 0 0 11:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 19 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 1 14 of 18 77% 47 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 7 of 9 77% 78 of 83 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:41
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 2 of 14 14% 8 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 0 13 of 20 65% 57 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 16 of 37 43% 3 of 17 6 of 12 7 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 34 of 47 72% 28 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 19 57% 2 of 5 4 of 8 5 of 6 11 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 14 of 18 77% 10 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 7 of 9 77% 6 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 7
3 Bryce Mitchell 2 of 14 14% 1 of 11 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 13 of 20 65% 12 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
One will rarely ever find a more perfect example of a striker vs. grappler battle, when the highlight-reel aficionado Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC) squares off with unbeaten submission artist Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith is on the call for this intriguing matchup at 145 pounds, and the men do not bothering to touch ‘em up before engaging. Mitchell throws a low kick, and Barboza is right there to return fire with a much heavier kick. Barboza attacks with another leg kick, and he backs away when Mitchell walks him down. Barboza sits down an inside leg kick, and just a few strikes in, Mitchell’s lead leg is already changing color. Mitchell gives chase, walking through another low kick, and he circles away as Mitchell tries to corner him. Mitchell aims a single kick to the body, and Barboza strings together a couple punches and a thudding low kick. Mitchell tries to grab Barboza but is out of range. Barboza scoots out of the way, and as he backs off, he gets cracked by a sudden right hand that sets him down. Barboza shakes off the cobwebs as “Thug Nasty” bears down on him, and he scoops up his foe’s legs and sets him down to the mat. In Barboza’s guard, Mitchell softens up the body with short punches, and he postures up to stack Barboza up when Barboza looks to open his guard and get offensive with it. From very close range, Mitchell thumps down a pair of elbows, and he uses effective top pressure to keep Barboza stuck with his neck on the wall and his back on the mat. Body to head goes Mitchell as he works Barboza over with light but constant strikes. Barboza tightens his guard, only to find an elbow zooming at his face, and he takes it flush and keeps absorbing punishment from below. Mitchell looks to sit up and drop down heavier blows, and as he does, the Brazilian kicks off and explodes back to his feet. Keeping a safe range, and hopping out of the way of a takedown entry from Mitchell, Barboza jumps around and scores a big leg kick. Missing with a spinning back kick, Barboza then chases after his man and gets off a right hand right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
The featherweights are quick to get after it to start the second stanza, and Barboza blasts Mitchell’s inside calf. Although he gets a couple off, he leaves his leg out a little too long and has it snagged mid-air. From there, Mitchell hits a quick double, setting the Brazilian flat on his back on the open mat. Barboza keeps his guard tightly closed, and Mitchell does not mind, as he racks up control time and has his ground strike totals add up. Mitchell sits up every so often to elbow Barboza in the face, and then flattens him back down and punches him in the side. One such elbow slashes Barboza’s left eyebrow open, and it begins to bleed instantly. Barboza scoots his way to the fence, but Mitchell will not let him up. Smith calls for them to work, and Mitchell obliges with a powerful elbow from on top. Barboza tries to push off and scramble, but the smothering top control of the Arkansan has him nullifying Barboza. When Mitchell attempts to pass to mount, Barboza is able to buck him of momentarily. Barboza looks to stand up with the fence behind him, and as he does, Mitchell drags him right back down from behind. Barboza recovers position to get his guard back, but “Thug Nasty” is nasty with his ground-and-pound as he batters Barboza and slides over to three-quarter mount. Mitchell clubs Barboza with several right hands to the bloodied eye, and a small pool of crimson forms beneath Barboza’s head. Mitchell settles for half guard, where he pounds on Barboza until the last five seconds of the round. Barboza manages to kick Mitchell off again, and Mitchell lords over him until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
The last round begins as Barboza appears to have a fire lit under his backside from his corner. Instead of throwing kicks, Barboza starts swinging heavy hands. Mitchell goes up high with a kick, and his foot bumps into Barboza’s shoulder and Mitchell falls to his back. Barboza does not oblige climbing into his guard, and he lets Mitchell stand up so he can slug it out with him. Barboza ducks a jumping switch kick, and he throws a right hand that Mitchell ducks perfectly. “Thug Nasty” nails a double, putting Barboza down to the canvas far away from the cage wall. Barboza closes up the guard, and Mitchell is happy as a clam in this position as this keeps him safe from any power strikes that come at him. In an effort to change things up, Barboza sets up a triangle choke from his high guard, and Mitchell lifts him in the air and slams him in the mat to break the leg grip. Mitchell comfortably lowers himself back in the guard, with sporadic punches on the bloody eye of his foe, until he stands up and stacks Barboza up. Barboza tries to kick off the hips, but he does not have the power to get Mitchell off of him any longer. Barboza scrambles and turns to set up a leg lock, but when this fails, Mitchell secures three-quarter mount with Barboza on his side. Mitchell begins to let a series of left hands go as Barboza cannot block his face, so the Brazilian twists and yanks his arm free but continues to get pounded by Mitchell. “Thug Nasty” starts to make things nasty again as he moves to half guard and starts raining down elbows. A few more strikes from the undefeated fighter put a stamp in this performance, and he will likely keep that 0 and put himself in line for big opportunities in the near future.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but admits he doesn't love the pick and will root for Barboza. He notes that Mitchell's only path is takedowns and control, and that Barboza has 78% takedown defense. However, he compares it to Khabib vs Barboza where Khabib had success with relentless takedowns. He thinks Mitchell's grappling is good enough to win a decision.

"i'm gonna pick bryce here i don't love the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win, likely by submission in the third round. He notes that Mitchell's relentless takedown game and top control will be key, as Barboza has historically struggled against wrestlers like Khabib and Kevin Lee. Brady acknowledges Barboza's striking advantage but believes Mitchell will neutralize it by taking him down repeatedly. He mentions that Barboza is 36 and may not keep up with Mitchell's pace. Brady also notes that Mitchell has shown improvement in his grappling, as seen in his wins over Andre Fili and Charles Rosa.

Mitchell by submission in round 3
"i'm gonna take him to win by i'm going to say submission actually in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody believes Mitchell has the exact style that causes Barboza problems: relentless pressure, wrestling, and grinding. He references the Amir Albazi fight as a template for how to beat Barboza by taking him down and controlling him. Cody acknowledges the striking disparity but trusts Mitchell's wrestling and strength to get the takedowns and avoid Barboza's power.

"i think bryce mitchell has the exact template the exact style that causes barbossa problems historically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi is confident in Bryce Mitchell, citing his relentless takedown style. He argues that Mitchell will shoot takedowns from the opening bell and keep shooting until he gets them down, unlike Makwan Amirkhani who backed up. He references Kevin Lee's blueprint of walking Barboza down and taking him down, and notes that Barboza struggled to get back up. He believes Mitchell's composure in the Felder fight (where he was reversed but stayed calm) bodes well. He predicts Mitchell will dominate via ground and pound and win a decision, possibly a submission.

"bryce mitchell is going to come out here take down edson barboza hold him down land some ground and pound possibly find a sub but most likely come out here and get this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Barboza's striking, especially his leg kicks and power, is something Mitchell hasn't dealt with. Mitchell's path to victory is grappling, but Barboza has solid takedown defense and submission defense. The bigger cage helps Barboza maintain distance. Barboza can win by decision or even knockout if Mitchell gets reckless. The later the fight goes, the more Mitchell might land takedowns, but Barboza's experience should carry him.

"i do like barboza as a dog in the spot right i know he's had moments in the past where he's lost fights due to grappling i'm just not sure if bryce can replicate a kevin lee type of wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul is skeptical of Mitchell's competition, noting he has fought low-level opponents and struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Bobby Moffitt). He argues Barboza has fought elite competition and has underrated takedown defense, citing Khabib going 4-for-13. Paul sees this as a coin flip and prefers the plus money on Barboza, believing Mitchell could get lit up if he can't secure takedowns.

"plus 130 to me in a fight that again man i it could go either way yeah i'll roll the dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza, trusting Mitchell's relentless grappling and tough chin. He acknowledges Barboza's KO power and speed, predicting Mitchell may get dropped early but will wear on Barboza with takedowns and pressure. He references Barboza's cardio issues and Mitchell's ability to set up takedowns with strikes. He predicts a third-round arm triangle submission after taking mount.

method: submission (arm triangle), round: 3
"i'm going to go the third round arm triangle sub from bryce mitchell"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (punches) R3 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 60 of 117 51% 70 of 128 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Giga Chikadze 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Giga Chikadze 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 21 of 27 77% 31 of 38 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 33 of 95 34% 15 of 70 10 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 60 of 117 51% 31 of 80 16 of 22 13 of 15 56 of 113 0 of 0 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 10 of 26 38% 4 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 17 of 43 39% 6 of 27 5 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 19 of 56 33% 8 of 41 6 of 10 5 of 5 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 22 of 47 46% 10 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 6 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Giga Chikadze 4 of 13 30% 3 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 21 of 27 77% 15 of 20 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.

Angelo likes the less more on monkey knife fight.
"my pick is honestly edson barboza i think the leg kicks are the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.

already bet Edson Barboza at -110; won't have highest investment
"I already bet edson barbos so I got him at 110 minus 115 is fine"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.

Jacob got Chikadze at +100; he placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
"i actually got giga for plus 100 when i saw plus 100"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.

under 4.5 rounds -130, Barboza by KO +270, Barboza round 3 +1100, round 4 +1450, round 5 +2075
"I ever so slightly lean on the barboza side here i think that his volume is ultimately going to catch up to giga and i think that giga will start to slow down the later that this fight goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.

"if edson gets out of the first two rounds in this fight i like him even more so i'm in on edson barbosa"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.

Barboza by decision, calf kicks to be a factor
"i think edson barboza is a way better striker way more experience under the big lights he's been in main events before"
WIN vs Shane Burgos
KO (punches) R3 1:16 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 80 of 180 44% 80 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 1 98 of 191 51% 98 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 0 41 of 83 49% 41 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 39 of 82 47% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 1 18 of 26 69% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 80 of 180 44% 41 of 131 24 of 33 15 of 16 80 of 179 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 98 of 191 51% 51 of 134 14 of 17 33 of 40 96 of 189 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 33 of 79 41% 20 of 65 10 of 11 3 of 3 33 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 41 of 83 49% 19 of 55 5 of 5 17 of 23 41 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 40 of 83 48% 19 of 55 14 of 21 7 of 7 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 39 of 82 47% 23 of 63 8 of 10 8 of 9 39 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 7 of 18 38% 2 of 11 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 18 of 26 69% 9 of 16 1 of 2 8 of 8 16 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.

by KO round 3
"I'm gonna take burgos to win here i'm gonna take him to win by um i'll say i'll say third round knockout for shane burgos"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.

"i'm obviously a burgos guy first and foremost like what he brings to the table these tigers shulman guys i mean universally across the board they're doing some excellent stuff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.

mentions Burgos's underrated kicks and Barboza's chin issues
"i got to go with burgos here because of the pressure the output and the non-stop forward pressure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.

Burgos by decision
"i'll go burgos and i'll go with burgers by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.

"the pick would be burgos but it's like you know this is an all-action fight between two strikers"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.

Bet on a draw (prop bet mentioned)
"i'm going with hurricane shane burgos"