UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
2.45 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
1.45 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
91.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Davi Ramos
2.64 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.95 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Submission (brabo choke) R1 4:05 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.

"I think he wins here I think he gets it done I think the wrestling will be there I think the Striking is going to be better than armen's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.

Live bet strategy: if Makhachev wins first round, cash; if loses, get better live price. Also mentions hedging with Tsarukyan if parlay is alive.
"I expect michev to win the longer it goes but if he can win the first round oh we're money if he loses the first round you could get a better live price on it in the betting Market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.

Odds opened at -336, now -366; Arman opened +278, now +299. Connor thinks the line is too wide but is confident in Makhachev.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.

Daniel took Moicano at +305 and says he would take him at +300 against any 155-pounder. He mentions the fight being in LA with a large Armenian population as a factor.
"I would take plus 300 on him against anybody I mean right now that's how good of a fighter he is so it's definitely a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.

Arman Tsarukyan at +310 is worth a one-unit shot for value
"I ultimately think Islam makev is going to come out with the win I think there's value in Arman surin's price tag at plus 310 he may be worth a one unit shot for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.

fight goes to decision
"I think makev will create grappling opportunities that he will be able to come out ahead on it might be grindy it might be slow it might not be the most entertaining but I think makev will squeeze his way …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.

Mentions Tsarukyan by knockout at +600 or +700 as a possible shot, but not banking on it.
"I think Islam retains as well minus 3557 at cool but is the best number on Market uh that I can see right now as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.

decision
"mlam makev will win I think he'll win a close decision I think it'll be razor close"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (head kick and punches) R1 3:06 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.

parlay inclusion, odds comment: discount at -170
"I like Islam to win and uh honestly I think he's a discount right now he's only minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.

decision
"I got to go Islam here and I'm take Islam to win this fight by pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.

Makhachev by decision, Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think the short notice takes a little bit away from it with Islam Makhachev he's 31 years old he's in the prime of his life he's still getting better"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.

Islam minus 255, Volkanovski plus 250; mentions fight likely goes five rounds again
"I do have to pick Islam makev in this fight... I just think that this is Islam time at this weight class right now and I think he's going to get it done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Islam Makhachev

James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.

Makhachev by KO/TKO at +450 to +600; under 4.5 rounds
"I said Islam Makhachev is going to knock out Alexander Volkanovski... I cashed on Islam KO, I cashed on Islam money line, and I also cashed on the under four and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.

over 4.5 rounds (fight goes the distance)
"I'm going to take volkanovski I'm going to take him once again and hope that he can pull this one out Win It by decision down the stretch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.

Makhachev by decision (+185 to +200), Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think you go Makhachev and because I have so much faith that Volkanovski truly is that badass I think I chase out Volkanovski by or by Islam Makhachev by decision again try to get some additional value"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.

Makhachev wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think makev is going to catch vog in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 57 of 95 60% 95 of 135 4 of 9 44% 0 0 7:37
Alexander Volkanovski 1 70 of 143 48% 164 of 255 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:04
Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 23 47% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 32 59% 30 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Islam Makhachev 0 16 of 22 72% 20 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Volkanovski 0 14 of 37 37% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
4 Islam Makhachev 0 4 of 9 44% 19 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
Alexander Volkanovski 0 6 of 13 46% 49 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Islam Makhachev 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 36 55% 52 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 57 of 95 60% 36 of 72 18 of 20 3 of 3 45 of 82 12 of 13 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 70 of 143 48% 37 of 96 21 of 33 12 of 14 58 of 125 6 of 10 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 23 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 19 of 32 59% 12 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 7 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 14 of 37 37% 7 of 26 4 of 8 3 of 3 11 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 1
4 Islam Makhachev 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 6 of 13 46% 4 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 8 of 16 50% 6 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.

Islam safe for parlays
"I have a three unit moneyline bet on Islam at minus 330"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.

third round submission
"I'm going to take mahachiev to win I'm gonna take him to win by submission and I'll say it happens in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.

suggests hedging with Volkanovski at +300
"I'm picking Islam mankachev but I think the best path here is build parlays maybe around mankachev and then when it gets down to the main event don't be be too proud to just throw a couple bucks on vulcanovski …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.

"I think i'm still going to pick mocka chip here at the end of the day just because like... it's a hard place to start and be like but I also think he's going to lose."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.

over 2.5 rounds at -175; fight goes all five rounds
"the fact that we're getting the number one pound for pound fighter a fighter who has been undefeated in 22 professional mixed martial arts fights over 10 years that you can get him at plus 300 is absolutely crazy to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105/-110
"I took some uh makachev inside the distance... I got one book it was minus 105 but another book it was minus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Islam makashev third round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.

"All right, we're both gonna pick uh... well, we're both picking makachev. He is the favorite here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:16 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Charles Oliveira 1 30 of 41 73% 72 of 86 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 11 54% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Charles Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 51 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:48
2 Islam Makhachev 0 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Charles Oliveira 1 18 of 23 78% 21 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 19 of 39 48% 7 of 23 12 of 15 0 of 1 10 of 26 7 of 8 2 of 5
Charles Oliveira 30 of 41 73% 25 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 11 54% 1 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4
Charles Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 10 3 of 3 4 of 5
2 Islam Makhachev 13 of 28 46% 6 of 18 7 of 9 0 of 1 8 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 1
Charles Oliveira 18 of 23 78% 16 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.

"I like Islam to get the takedowns keep the control avoid the submissions I think islamankachev wins this fight I'm very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.

third round TKO
"I think Islam finishes some ground and pound TKO in that third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.

under in the fight
"ever so slightly I think I'm gonna go with uh my fellow Horseman Charles Oliveira"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.

"Even if Makhachev does end up in trouble so long as he isn't finished with one shot, we're gonna end up in a grappling sequence where Makhachev is just I think too dominant too technical."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.

Bet 2 units at -162. Notes that Islam is a discount at these odds compared to his usual -300 to -600 lines. Expects the fight to favor Islam as it goes longer.
"I actually bet islamicachev in the spa and I bet I'm at -162."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105; under 2.5 rounds at -160; fight doesn't go to decision as parlay piece
"give me my hot Chef inside the distance minus 105. I love his money line as well where it's at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.

bet at +285 and +175
"it's Charles Oliveira pass as far as I'm concerned I don't really understand jumping um at like 66 percent win percentage islamakachev in this situation whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.

guillotine in round one
"I've got Charles Oliveira winning this one dominantly"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.

"I think that Makhachev is going to find that if he gets in on takedowns against Charles Oliveira, Charles Oliveira is probably gonna give many of them up."
WIN vs King Green
TKO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.

Two-unit parlay with Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at approximately -180
"i think he absolutely dismantles bobby green i think he blows through bobby green islam is absolutely my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.

Makhachev by submission; line is accurate but Brady won't bet at -700
"I got mahachev no hot take um but i think he gets it done and i will not be betting on bobby green like a lot of people seem to be doing but i can tell you i will also …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.

Green by KO +1100 (DraftKings), hedge suggestion
"i like islam i like him a lot you know he's just like your boy could be nurmagomedov"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.

fight goes the distance +250 (does not think it hits)
"i think he does make a statement i think he submits bobby green and i think he gets his title shot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.

Half-unit bet on Bobby Green at +550
"my pick's gonna be islam i'm not gonna pick bobby green but i'm just saying if there was ever anyone that could beat islam outside that top five it's gonna be bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.

over 1.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go islam hachev and uh in terms of a method of victory since you guys are putting a gun to my head i have a hypothetical gun to my head i'm going to go with this lama chevy …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.

sprinkle on Bobby Green +600, Green by KO +1100
"i'm kind of tempted cody to wait and see how how wide this line gets and then maybe just sprinkle on bobby green a little bit"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission; odds are -800 (implied from 'eight to one favorite'); Makhachev by submission in round 3
"i'm going to go the third round very naked choke for islam makashev over bobby green"
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission (kimura) R1 2:25 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Makhachev by decision
"I'll say uh makachev does uh get it done by a pretty convincing dominant decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Islam by decision
"i agree with democracy call uh i go back to hooker's nep he's only been knocked out one time"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i mean look if it's a pick um fight you got to go with islam but i ain't laying no minus 700"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Makhachev by decision -105, Hooker inside distance +675, Hooker by KO +850.
"I'm going to go with islam and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160), Islam by decision
"maka jeff by decision is my official pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.

"i'm going with islam makashev here"
Davi Ramos - Fight History
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 33 of 103 32% 49 of 122 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:18
Davi Ramos 0 91 of 197 46% 118 of 227 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 3 of 18 16% 6 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Davi Ramos 0 22 of 40 55% 44 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:21
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 15 of 39 38% 20 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Davi Ramos 0 34 of 74 45% 36 of 76 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:12
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 15 of 46 32% 23 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Davi Ramos 0 35 of 83 42% 38 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 33 of 103 32% 20 of 82 10 of 18 3 of 3 29 of 92 4 of 7 0 of 4
Davi Ramos 91 of 197 46% 60 of 160 13 of 19 18 of 18 80 of 182 6 of 7 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 3 of 18 16% 1 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 4
Davi Ramos 22 of 40 55% 12 of 28 1 of 3 9 of 9 17 of 32 0 of 0 5 of 8
2 Arman Tsarukyan 15 of 39 38% 10 of 29 4 of 9 1 of 1 13 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 34 of 74 45% 21 of 58 7 of 10 6 of 6 30 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 15 of 46 32% 9 of 38 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 35 of 83 42% 27 of 74 5 of 6 3 of 3 33 of 81 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan but expresses concern about him taking down Ramos, who is dangerous on the ground. He thinks Tsarukyan is the better striker with more variety and will win a grinding decision by pinning Ramos against the cage and landing more strikes. He notes the line is too wide but still expects Tsarukyan to get the job done.

"I gotta go Tsarukyan in here I think he's going to land the better strikes the more strikes pin him up against the cage win a very grinding fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing his youth and potential for improvement. He notes that Tsarukyan fought Islam Makhachev tough and has a high ceiling. He believes Tsarukyan will dictate the center of the cage and use relentless takedown attempts. He acknowledges Ramos's jiu-jitsu and power but thinks Tsarukyan's wrestling and pace will be too much, leading to a decision win.

"i'm probably gonna go with saruki i think it's gonna be a tough fight though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Tsarukyan, noting he has the jiu-jitsu level to avoid Ramos' submissions, as shown by Austin Hubbard surviving. He believes Tsarukyan has a striking advantage, natural size and reach advantages, and more experience despite being younger. He predicts Tsarukyan wins every round by decision, 30-27.

Tsarukyan by decision 30-27
"I feel as though almond srew qian's probably going to be able to do the same thing"
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 1 43 of 95 45% 88 of 148 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:39
Davi Ramos 0 7 of 58 12% 27 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Davi Ramos 0 2 of 24 8% 2 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 47 40% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davi Ramos 0 5 of 32 15% 6 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Islam Makhachev 1 14 of 23 60% 54 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:39
Davi Ramos 0 0 of 2 0% 19 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 43 of 95 45% 32 of 81 7 of 10 4 of 4 29 of 74 3 of 3 11 of 18
Davi Ramos 7 of 58 12% 5 of 43 1 of 14 1 of 1 5 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 10 of 25 40% 5 of 19 2 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 2 of 24 8% 1 of 16 0 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 19 of 47 40% 13 of 39 5 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 5 of 32 15% 4 of 25 1 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 18
Davi Ramos 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davi Ramos 0 63 of 114 55% 76 of 128 3 of 7 42% 0 0 4:05
Austin Hubbard 0 44 of 116 37% 46 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davi Ramos 0 20 of 42 47% 23 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Austin Hubbard 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Davi Ramos 0 19 of 33 57% 22 of 36 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
Austin Hubbard 0 16 of 31 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Davi Ramos 0 24 of 39 61% 31 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Austin Hubbard 0 15 of 43 34% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davi Ramos 63 of 114 55% 44 of 86 7 of 15 12 of 13 41 of 92 5 of 5 17 of 17
Austin Hubbard 44 of 116 37% 19 of 73 8 of 24 17 of 19 40 of 111 2 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davi Ramos 20 of 42 47% 17 of 36 1 of 3 2 of 3 15 of 37 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austin Hubbard 13 of 42 30% 6 of 29 2 of 8 5 of 5 13 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Davi Ramos 19 of 33 57% 9 of 21 2 of 4 8 of 8 12 of 26 4 of 4 3 of 3
Austin Hubbard 16 of 31 51% 5 of 17 5 of 7 6 of 7 14 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Davi Ramos 24 of 39 61% 18 of 29 4 of 8 2 of 2 14 of 29 1 of 1 9 of 9
Austin Hubbard 15 of 43 34% 8 of 27 1 of 9 6 of 7 13 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 2
WIN vs John Gunther
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:57 · UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodríguez · Nov 10, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davi Ramos 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:45
John Gunther 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davi Ramos 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:45
John Gunther 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davi Ramos 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
John Gunther 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davi Ramos 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
John Gunther 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 0:50 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Dec 09, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davi Ramos 0 46 of 97 47% 57 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 55 of 124 44% 65 of 136 5 of 9 55% 1 0 3:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davi Ramos 0 16 of 33 48% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 20 of 53 37% 26 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
2 Davi Ramos 0 26 of 58 44% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 33 of 66 50% 37 of 70 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:04
3 Davi Ramos 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davi Ramos 46 of 97 47% 25 of 69 10 of 14 11 of 14 39 of 89 4 of 4 3 of 4
Chris Gruetzemacher 55 of 124 44% 49 of 117 4 of 5 2 of 2 44 of 105 9 of 13 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davi Ramos 16 of 33 48% 9 of 24 2 of 3 5 of 6 14 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 3
Chris Gruetzemacher 20 of 53 37% 16 of 49 3 of 3 1 of 1 16 of 43 2 of 4 2 of 6
2 Davi Ramos 26 of 58 44% 12 of 39 8 of 11 6 of 8 23 of 55 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Gruetzemacher 33 of 66 50% 31 of 63 1 of 2 1 of 1 26 of 57 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Davi Ramos 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Gruetzemacher 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Sérgio Moraes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Mar 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sérgio Moraes 0 39 of 93 41% 39 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davi Ramos 0 35 of 122 28% 35 of 122 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sérgio Moraes 0 7 of 27 25% 7 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davi Ramos 0 10 of 36 27% 10 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sérgio Moraes 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davi Ramos 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Sérgio Moraes 0 13 of 35 37% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davi Ramos 0 8 of 34 23% 8 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sérgio Moraes 39 of 93 41% 24 of 71 13 of 20 2 of 2 39 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 35 of 122 28% 21 of 97 7 of 17 7 of 8 35 of 122 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sérgio Moraes 7 of 27 25% 4 of 22 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 10 of 36 27% 5 of 30 2 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sérgio Moraes 19 of 31 61% 11 of 21 6 of 8 2 of 2 19 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 17 of 52 32% 10 of 40 5 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sérgio Moraes 13 of 35 37% 9 of 28 4 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davi Ramos 8 of 34 23% 6 of 27 0 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0