UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Zubaira Tukhugov
3.17 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.07 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.13 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lerone Murphy
4.34 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.65 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.2 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
44.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Zubaira Tukhugov - Fight History
LOSS vs Elves Brener
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elves Brener 0 70 of 169 41% 73 of 172 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:11
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 69 of 157 43% 82 of 170 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elves Brener 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Elves Brener 0 36 of 78 46% 36 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Elves Brener 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:11
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 22 of 38 57% 35 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elves Brener 70 of 169 41% 64 of 160 4 of 7 2 of 2 68 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 69 of 157 43% 30 of 101 23 of 35 16 of 21 66 of 153 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elves Brener 17 of 43 39% 14 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 24 of 67 35% 6 of 41 9 of 13 9 of 13 24 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Elves Brener 36 of 78 46% 34 of 74 1 of 3 1 of 1 36 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 23 of 52 44% 10 of 33 9 of 14 4 of 5 23 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Elves Brener 17 of 48 35% 16 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 16 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 22 of 38 57% 14 of 27 5 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Angelo picks Zubaira Tukhugov, citing his excellent wrestling and takedown ability, which should dominate Elves Brener, who is stepping up on short notice. He notes that both have mediocre striking, but Zubaira's wrestling is the difference-maker. He expects the fight to go to decision and advises against including Zubaira in parlays due to the risk.

Fight goes to decision
"zubair is definitely the pick both of these guys are tough this most likely goes to a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Big Brady is very confident in Tukhugov, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes that Tukhugov has fought much better competition and has 100% takedown defense, while Brener is a grappler with poor takedown defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Tukhugov has power and will go after Brener early.

first round knockout
"I like to hook up and knock this guy out and I like him to do it in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Cody picks Tukhugov but hates the -600 price. He notes Tukhugov is talented but often fights to the level of his competition and has many split decisions. He thinks Brener is a step up in competition and durable. He expects a close fight and would not bet Tukhugov at that price.

"the pick would be zubair to Hugo do I agree with the price tag no"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Connor picks Tukhugov, agreeing that Brener has zero structure and can be taken out of the fight in any position. He notes that Tukhugov is an insane athlete who has moved past his bad fight period and now looks structured. Connor thinks even a bad Tukhugov would likely win, and that Brener is a regional-level fighter.

"Yeah, Brenner is very much your fight for leap no over fight. And oh God, yeah, you would still might most likely dog walk Brenner."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Tukhugov's overhand right and clinch grappling will be too much for the short-notice debutant Brener. Brener has a tendency to end up on his back, where Tukhugov can control him. Tukhugov's striking is limited but effective at crashing the pocket. Brener may have success with kicks early, but Tukhugov's pressure and wrestling will take over. The fight likely goes to a decision with Tukhugov grinding out a win.

"I think that hard-known striking style of tahugov is going to be able to crash the Pocket land those big strikes on Brenner possibly finishing him in the early goings of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Paul picks Tukhugov but is not confident. He notes Tukhugov's wrestling and durability should be enough to control Brener, but the -600 line is unplayable. He sees Brener as durable and tough, but thinks Tukhugov wins by decision or late finish. He passes on betting.

"I think zooby should be able to take him down hold him down there... but yeah minus 600 what do you really do with the line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

The MMA Guru picks Zubaira Tukhugov over Elves Brener, noting that Brener is stepping in on short notice and lacks impressive competition. He believes Tukhugov will take it slow and steady, finishing Brener in the second or third round by TKO. He trusts Tukhugov's experience despite some past losses.

second round TKO
"I'm going with zubaira took a goth via second round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Zane picks Tukhugov confidently, stating that Brener is a bad fighter with no structure to his game, who can lose from any position. He notes that Tukhugov is a massive step up in competition and has shown improved boxing and structure. Zane believes Tukhugov will likely dog-walk Brener, landing a huge shot or takedown.

"Zubard Tukugov is a massive, massive step up in competition."
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 68 of 224 30% 71 of 227 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricardo Ramos 0 77 of 181 42% 78 of 185 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 15 of 66 22% 15 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricardo Ramos 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 21 of 72 29% 21 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricardo Ramos 0 31 of 68 45% 31 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
3 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 32 of 86 37% 35 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricardo Ramos 0 27 of 70 38% 28 of 74 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zubaira Tukhugov 68 of 224 30% 49 of 187 10 of 19 9 of 18 67 of 223 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ricardo Ramos 77 of 181 42% 73 of 174 2 of 5 2 of 2 77 of 181 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 15 of 66 22% 9 of 50 2 of 6 4 of 10 15 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ricardo Ramos 19 of 43 44% 19 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zubaira Tukhugov 21 of 72 29% 14 of 63 3 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ricardo Ramos 31 of 68 45% 27 of 63 2 of 3 2 of 2 31 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zubaira Tukhugov 32 of 86 37% 26 of 74 5 of 9 1 of 3 31 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ricardo Ramos 27 of 70 38% 27 of 69 0 of 1 0 of 0 27 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Big Brady picks Zubaira Tukhugov to win a close decision. He thinks the fight will be competitive on the feet, but Tukhugov's grappling and takedowns will be the difference. He notes Tukhugov has a 100% takedown defense and averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. He expects a very close fight and would not touch the moneyline.

"I think the difference in this fight is going to be tahugov going to the grappling going to the takedowns."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Cody leans towards Ramos at +145, citing Tukhugov's untrustworthiness and tendency for split decisions. He notes Tukhugov's wrestling isn't as good as other Russians and he gasses. Ramos showed improved wrestling against Bill Algeo. He thinks this is a pick'em fight and likes the underdog value.

"i'm leaning towards the plus 145 on ramos uh to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Daniel picks Ricardo Ramos as an underdog, citing his talent and ability. He notes Ramos has all the skills but is inconsistent mentally. Daniel believes if Ramos shows up, he can win by being more active and fresher down the stretch. He mentions Tukhugov's cardio issues and low output as vulnerabilities. Daniel is willing to roll the dice at the odds.

"give me the underdog ricardo ramos and ricardo just show up for this one man because if you do you got all the ability then the talent and the skills to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Tukhugov has power and takedowns, but fades in the third round and has been in many split decisions. Ramos is crafty on the ground and has durability issues. Tukhugov likely wins the first two rounds and holds on for a decision, but it's risky.

Tukhugov by decision +150, Tukhugov round 1 +800, Ramos round 3 +2000.
"I gotta go to hugov uh and i think he'll do enough in those first two rounds stay out of danger in that third round and take home a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Paul is hesitant but leans Tukhugov, noting the 'team Russia' factor in Abu Dhabi might give him an edge. He acknowledges Tukhugov's flaws (low output, close decisions) but thinks Ramos also has low output. He expects a close decision that could go Tukhugov's way.

"i feel like it's going to go towards dahugov"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos as an upset. He is not sold on Zubaira Tukhugov, citing cardio issues and a tendency to slow down. He notes that Ramos has good body work, is dangerous under pressure, and can land spinning elbows. He expects Ramos to be busier on the ground and scramble more, winning a split decision 29-28. He mentions that Tukhugov often lets fights slide.

"i'm gonna go with ricardo ramos i think he's pretty good and i'm not sold on zubaira tukagov"
LOSS vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 0 69 of 136 50% 70 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 35 of 93 37% 40 of 98 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 36 of 58 62% 37 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 21 of 54 38% 26 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:17
3 Hakeem Dawodu 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 69 of 136 50% 31 of 80 14 of 21 24 of 35 69 of 136 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 35 of 93 37% 31 of 88 4 of 5 0 of 0 34 of 92 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 13 of 41 31% 3 of 24 3 of 5 7 of 12 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 36 of 58 62% 20 of 38 8 of 9 8 of 11 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 21 of 54 38% 18 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Hakeem Dawodu 20 of 37 54% 8 of 18 3 of 7 9 of 12 20 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Big Brady leans toward Tukhugov in a close fight, citing his power and wrestling. He thinks Tukhugov will land harder shots and potentially use takedowns to edge a decision, despite being out-volumed. He's not very confident.

"gimme to hugov here in a very very close decision um you know not all that confident"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu as a dog, believing the fight should be closer to a pick'em. He notes Dawodu starts slow but improves as the fight progresses with his Muay Thai arsenal, while Tukhugov comes out hard early. He also mentions Tukhugov missed weight by five pounds and is without his coach Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov.

"with this dog odds i'ma take hakeem do i do to uh to edge out this fight and one that i think should be a pick em"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The host picks Hakeem Dawodu as a slight underdog, citing his superior striking, better gas tank, and higher output. He expects Tukhugov to slow down in later rounds, allowing Dawodu to take over. He predicts a third-round TKO for Dawodu.

Dawodu wins in round 3 (+1800)
"I do like duaduru in this fight again the overall better stand up artist here... i'm going to take him to win by third round tko."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

The MMA Guru picks Zubaira Tukhugov, believing he has more power and finishing ability. He thinks Tukhugov will crack Dawodu early, possibly with a KO, and notes Dawodu tends to have close decisions. He mentions the smaller cage favors Tukhugov's finishing chances.

Win by finish (KO)
"i'm going with zubaira took off getting a job done by finish i think he'll just be a little bit too fast and switched on early"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
TKO (punches) R1 3:21 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Feb 23, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 2 28 of 36 77% 28 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 2 28 of 36 77% 28 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zubaira Tukhugov 9 of 28 32% 4 of 22 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 28 of 36 77% 26 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 22 0 of 0 13 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 9 of 28 32% 4 of 22 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 28 of 36 77% 26 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 22 0 of 0 13 of 14
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Aguilar

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Aguilar, despite concerns about Aguilar taking too many clean punches. He believes Aguilar's takedown defense and get-up game are excellent, and that his output and cardio will be deciding factors in the later rounds. Levi notes that Zubaira Tukhugov's activity wanes as fights go on, and if Tukhugov doesn't knock Aguilar out early, Aguilar will take over and win a decision.

"I think that if Zubaira does not knock out Kevin Aguilar, that Aguilar is gonna take over in that second and third."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Kevin Aguilar

The host picks Kevin Aguilar, reasoning that if Tukhugov were special, he wouldn't have gone to a draw with Lerone Murphy on short notice. He notes Aguilar's only recent loss is to Dan Ige, who looked amazing. He likes Aguilar as an underdog to bounce back.

"I like Kevin Aguilar here to bounce back I think he's gonna get the job done over Jabara took a Goff"
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Draw (split) (28–29, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zubaira Tukhugov 1 22 of 58 37% 28 of 68 6 of 8 75% 0 1 9:30
Lerone Murphy 0 28 of 78 35% 65 of 116 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 1 16 of 31 51% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:36
Lerone Murphy 0 5 of 13 38% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 4 of 19 21% 5 of 20 2 of 2 100% 0 1 2:43
Lerone Murphy 0 14 of 38 36% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:11
3 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 2 of 8 25% 4 of 11 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:11
Lerone Murphy 0 9 of 27 33% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zubaira Tukhugov 22 of 58 37% 20 of 53 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 37 7 of 11 5 of 10
Lerone Murphy 28 of 78 35% 12 of 55 13 of 20 3 of 3 23 of 73 2 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 16 of 31 51% 14 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 10 7 of 11 5 of 10
Lerone Murphy 5 of 13 38% 0 of 6 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zubaira Tukhugov 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 14 of 38 36% 8 of 30 6 of 8 0 of 0 10 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3
3 Zubaira Tukhugov 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 9 of 27 33% 4 of 19 5 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Renato Moicano
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic · May 14, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Renato Moicano 0 44 of 129 34% 52 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 29 of 112 25% 32 of 115 3 of 8 37% 0 0 1:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Renato Moicano 0 9 of 26 34% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 5 of 21 23% 8 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
2 Renato Moicano 0 15 of 51 29% 15 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 11 of 48 22% 11 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Renato Moicano 0 20 of 52 38% 22 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 13 of 43 30% 13 of 43 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Renato Moicano 44 of 129 34% 21 of 98 5 of 11 18 of 20 41 of 124 1 of 3 2 of 2
Zubaira Tukhugov 29 of 112 25% 24 of 100 5 of 12 0 of 0 26 of 106 0 of 1 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Renato Moicano 9 of 26 34% 4 of 20 1 of 2 4 of 4 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2
Zubaira Tukhugov 5 of 21 23% 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Renato Moicano 15 of 51 29% 7 of 38 0 of 3 8 of 10 15 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 11 of 48 22% 8 of 42 3 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Renato Moicano 20 of 52 38% 10 of 40 4 of 6 6 of 6 19 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 13 of 43 30% 11 of 38 2 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Dec 10, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 21 of 83 25% 23 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Phillipe Nover 0 20 of 77 25% 20 of 78 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Phillipe Nover 0 3 of 30 10% 3 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 10 of 34 29% 10 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Phillipe Nover 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 20 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 5 of 21 23% 6 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Phillipe Nover 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zubaira Tukhugov 21 of 83 25% 15 of 70 3 of 9 3 of 4 16 of 75 3 of 5 2 of 3
Phillipe Nover 20 of 77 25% 6 of 50 13 of 25 1 of 2 19 of 74 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 6 of 28 21% 3 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 2
Phillipe Nover 3 of 30 10% 2 of 25 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Zubaira Tukhugov 10 of 34 29% 9 of 31 0 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 1
Phillipe Nover 9 of 19 47% 2 of 11 7 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Zubaira Tukhugov 5 of 21 23% 3 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Phillipe Nover 8 of 28 28% 2 of 14 5 of 12 1 of 2 7 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Ernest Chavez
TKO (punches) R1 4:21 · UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story · Oct 04, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 40 of 67 59% 43 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ernest Chavez 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 0 40 of 67 59% 43 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ernest Chavez 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zubaira Tukhugov 40 of 67 59% 34 of 60 5 of 6 1 of 1 27 of 52 8 of 9 5 of 6
Ernest Chavez 12 of 30 40% 9 of 24 0 of 1 3 of 5 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zubaira Tukhugov 40 of 67 59% 34 of 60 5 of 6 1 of 1 27 of 52 8 of 9 5 of 6
Ernest Chavez 12 of 30 40% 9 of 24 0 of 1 3 of 5 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy - Fight History
LOSS vs Movsar Evloev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Movsar Evloev 0 86 of 189 45% 124 of 234 9 of 10 90% 0 0 3:54
Lerone Murphy 0 89 of 239 37% 89 of 239 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Movsar Evloev 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Movsar Evloev 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Movsar Evloev 0 25 of 50 50% 26 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Lerone Murphy 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Movsar Evloev 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 45 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:19
Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Movsar Evloev 0 12 of 36 33% 40 of 69 5 of 5 100% 0 0 2:12
Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Movsar Evloev 86 of 189 45% 47 of 134 33 of 44 6 of 11 80 of 178 1 of 2 5 of 9
Lerone Murphy 89 of 239 37% 45 of 175 24 of 38 20 of 26 89 of 238 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Movsar Evloev 11 of 31 35% 3 of 21 6 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 14 of 49 28% 6 of 35 4 of 8 4 of 6 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Movsar Evloev 17 of 37 45% 9 of 24 7 of 11 1 of 2 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 24 of 57 42% 12 of 41 7 of 10 5 of 6 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Movsar Evloev 25 of 50 50% 12 of 34 11 of 13 2 of 3 25 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 23 of 48 47% 12 of 35 8 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Movsar Evloev 21 of 35 60% 16 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 1 15 of 25 1 of 2 5 of 8
Lerone Murphy 16 of 39 41% 6 of 24 5 of 8 5 of 7 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Movsar Evloev 12 of 36 33% 7 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 12 of 46 26% 9 of 40 0 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.

bet small at +220; English judges may help
"I am picking Lar Murphy. I bet on him at plus 220. Nothing huge, a small little bet because I am a coward. But I'm picking Lor Murphy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.

Movsar Evloev by decision
"Give me Evloev to win this fight. Give me Evloev to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.

"I actually think he just wins this fight. But it does come down to a numbers game sometimes. And by the value side, he is definitely the value side."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I think you do have to pick Yvlowev. You're not wrong. I think that is the right pick, but I do really wonder, like, what does this fight look like in rounds four and five..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.

"I think if Loy is going to win a unanimous decision here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.

"I kind of do lean Evloev just as a pure pick."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.

Fight likely goes to decision; not interested in fight spreads.
"Evloev should win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.

Evloev by decision, over 4.5 rounds
"I think Mobsa Evov wins here. I'm really more looking for the Mobs decision over four and a half cuz I think Leon is super tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.

"I like Evloev here. I don't mind passing on him if I don't get the number that I want, but I still think he wins this pretty decisively. And I think he does it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.

"I have no doubt in my mind that he's going to be able to get takedowns over Luron Murphy over and over and over."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.

fourth or fifth round finish
"Eve gets this one done. Fourth or fifth round finish. I think he'll push for a finish and get it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I got to pick the rest. And can also very, very clearly and notably win out really difficult scramble battles."
WIN vs Aaron Pico
KO R1 3:21 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo highlights Pico's wrestling and boxing credentials, believing his wrestling will be too much for Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's technical striking but thinks Pico is more well-rounded and determined now. He compares Pico's potential impact to Kayla Harrison's debut.

"I do think Pico's wrestling is just going to be too much here. Pico also has very good striking."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He is impressed by Aaron Pico's power and wrestling but questions his competition level. He notes Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. He worries about Murphy's takedown defense but thinks his get-up game is good. He sees this as a 'prove it' spot for Pico and favors Murphy's experience.

"I'm actually going to take Murphy here. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Murphy is a massive step up in competition for Pico, who has never faced an athlete of Murphy's size, speed, and durability. He notes that Murphy is battle-tested against UFC featherweights and has never lost to a higher level of competition, while Pico's wins are against older or less skilled opponents. Connor believes Murphy's durability and problem-solving skills will allow him to weather Pico's early wrestling and take over as the fight progresses, potentially finishing him.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is battle tested against UFC featherweights... Pico is going to get his ass down quick, probably, but it is yet to be an actual fight losing weakness."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

The host believes Pico will remind everyone he is a high-level prospect and deserving of a top-10 ranking. He thinks Murphy taking the fight on short notice is a disadvantage, and expects Pico to control the fight both on the feet and on the ground, grinding out a decision win.

"I believe Pico will remind people that he is still a very highlevel prospect and more than deserving to be in the top 10 of the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico, citing Murphy's superior technical skills, footwork, and fight IQ. He believes Pico's power and wrestling are threats, but Murphy's counter-grappling and ability to avoid big shots will be key. The Guru notes that Pico has been knocked out before and that Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with experience against dangerous opponents. He also mentions that the betting odds favoring Pico are off, making Murphy a value pick.

Underdog money on Murphy is crazy; could see a finish for Murphy (TKO or decision)
"I'm taking Lone Murphy. I think Lone Murphy beats Aaron Pico. Stylewise, I completely understand why Aaron Pico is problematic to Luron Murphy. He is a tricky style for Lurone Murphy."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy, arguing that Pico has never faced an athlete of Murphy's caliber and that Murphy's durability and resourcefulness will be key. He notes that Murphy has poor takedown defense but has never lost a fight due to it, as he figures out opponents as the fight goes on. Zane believes Pico's wrestling is violence-focused and that Murphy will get chances to get back up and land a fight-ending shot, as Pico has been finished before.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is just a physical presence like Pico has literally never faced... I kind of think Murphy will finish him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Decision (unanimous) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 41 of 143 28% 44 of 149 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:39
Lerone Murphy 0 84 of 157 53% 117 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lerone Murphy 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 2 of 8 25% 3 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Lerone Murphy 0 13 of 21 61% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Josh Emmett 0 5 of 25 20% 7 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Lerone Murphy 0 21 of 36 58% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Lerone Murphy 0 22 of 41 53% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Josh Emmett 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 41 of 143 28% 29 of 124 6 of 11 6 of 8 40 of 133 1 of 7 0 of 3
Lerone Murphy 84 of 157 53% 37 of 90 17 of 30 30 of 37 75 of 148 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 10 of 28 35% 6 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 10 of 24 41% 5 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 6 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 5 of 25 20% 3 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 21 of 36 58% 11 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 13 of 38 34% 9 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 22 of 41 53% 9 of 22 4 of 7 9 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 11 of 44 25% 10 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 18 of 35 51% 10 of 21 1 of 5 7 of 9 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

"I am on the lon side 3 to1 favorite again these odds start to seem a little crazy what could go wrong with an undefeated guy fighting an aging vet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Murphy I'm going to go Murphy to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Emmett opened +216, now +246. Connor implies the line is reasonable given Emmett's danger.
"I'm gonna stick with the Emmett pick. I understand that perfectly. Yeah, it should be a very winnable fight for LaRone Murphy, but I have seen him in too many fights give opponents the chance to just land huge on …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I believe Murphy is the better fighter here and way closer to his Prime and I think that will see Murphy really start to pull away probably in the third and fourth rounds mixing up his clinch game his wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Lerone Murphy by decision or finish in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Lrone Murphy. I think he'll grapple as the fight goes on. And Emtt's 40 years old and he's taken a lot of damage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Murphy opened at -264, now -303; Emmett opened +216, now +246. Zane notes the line is not unreasonable but shouldn't get much wider.
"I'm gonna pick LaRone Murphy because I think there are a myriad of ways to beat Josh Emmett... There's only one loss one type of loss to avoid."
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 52 of 100 52% 78 of 133 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:17
Dan Ige 1 46 of 106 43% 52 of 116 1 of 3 33% 0 2 4:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 32 53% 18 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Dan Ige 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:30
2 Lerone Murphy 0 19 of 42 45% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Dan Ige 0 11 of 29 37% 12 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:43
3 Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 26 61% 24 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Dan Ige 0 3 of 17 17% 8 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 52 of 100 52% 36 of 77 12 of 17 4 of 6 37 of 80 12 of 16 3 of 4
Dan Ige 46 of 106 43% 35 of 92 5 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 79 6 of 16 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 17 of 32 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dan Ige 32 of 60 53% 27 of 53 2 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 39 5 of 11 8 of 10
2 Lerone Murphy 19 of 42 45% 12 of 31 6 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 1
Dan Ige 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 16 of 26 61% 13 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dan Ige 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 4 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.

Over 2.5 rounds should be solid.
"Lon Murphy should win too clean of a striker to defensively sound I don't think he's going to get taken down and written out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.

"give me Lon Murphy Lon Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I actually like Laurel Murphy quite a bit"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I think this is just a really good fight for Laurent Murphy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.

"I think it's going to be a clear Lon Murphy decision win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.

"I think luron Murphy's going to be too smart for him too calculated"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.

"Murphy grinds his fight out and wins it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.

"Murphy will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 maybe a random scorecard goes out there for Ige but Murphy will have won it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I totally agree. Like just Ige is dangerous. If you give him something to counter, he's a lot less dangerous if you make him actually initiate of his own accord."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Lerone Murphy

Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.

"the win that i had expected him to get but it was he took the hardest path to get there"
WIN vs Edson Barboza
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Josh Culibao
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 59 of 109 54% 87 of 144 3 of 5 60% 2 0 7:38
Josh Culibao 0 23 of 59 38% 40 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:13
Josh Culibao 0 11 of 34 32% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 23 52% 24 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Josh Culibao 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:48
3 Lerone Murphy 1 29 of 49 59% 45 of 69 2 of 3 66% 2 0 3:46
Josh Culibao 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 59 of 109 54% 37 of 81 15 of 18 7 of 10 24 of 61 12 of 14 23 of 34
Josh Culibao 23 of 59 38% 16 of 48 5 of 6 2 of 5 19 of 53 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 18 of 37 48% 8 of 25 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Culibao 11 of 34 32% 7 of 26 2 of 3 2 of 5 10 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 12 of 23 52% 6 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 3 2 of 2
Josh Culibao 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 29 of 49 59% 23 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 10 6 of 7 21 of 32
Josh Culibao 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo favors Lerone Murphy's fluid striking and power, noting that Josh Culibao gets hit often. He mentions Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well, and the judges seem to favor him. He has a half-unit bet on Murphy at -145.

half unit bet at -145
"I've got to go with larone here though his striking is insanely fluid he's got a ton of power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy by decision. He notes this is a different matchup than Murphy's last fight against a grappler, as Culibao has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Murphy's striking and volume will be key, and he has hometown advantage in London. He believes even if it's close, the judges will favor the undefeated fighter in London.

by decision
"give me Murphy give me Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, noting his well-roundedness, accurate striking, and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's volume and home crowd advantage will secure a decision. He is surprised by the line movement and thinks Murphy is being disrespected.

"minus 130 seems very very fair for Laurel Murphy so he's a guy that I've had circled"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel leans toward Lerone Murphy, primarily due to potential hometown judging bias in London. He acknowledges Josh Culibao is a tough, scrappy fighter who finds ways to win, but thinks Murphy's volume and well-roundedness give him a slight edge. He notes that if the fight were in neutral territory, he'd view it as a pick'em, but in the UK, he gives Murphy a slight advantage. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision.

Daniel says 'I'm gonna go later on by split decision' and mentions the line: Murphy -130, Culibao +110. He does not bet.
"I'm gonna go later on by split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

James leans towards Josh Culibao as the underdog side. He thinks the fight is close and likely to go to a split decision. He notes that Culibao may have some advantages like takedowns but is open on the feet. He mentions that Murphy has power but Culibao has good recovery. James says whoever is the underdog is probably the side, and at +130, Culibao has value.

"I think whoever is an underdog in that spot is probably the side so I'd say cool about the side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The host leans with Lerone Murphy, citing his physical advantages, explosiveness, speed, and power. He expects Murphy to land big shots and possibly knockdowns to thwart Culibao's pressure. He predicts a decision win but says he'll likely stay off the fight for betting.

likely stay off it for betting
"I'm gonna lean on the Murphy side here I believe his physical advantages his explosivity his speed his power will allow him to land those big shots on [ __ ] bow and grind this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, citing his heart and ability to overcome adversity in his last fight. He thinks Murphy's jab and accuracy will win rounds, and that Culibao's level of opposition is low. He expects Murphy to chip away and win.

"I will take a little Murphy at home to get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, initially considering Josh Culibao but reasoning that Murphy's poor performance against Gabriel Santos was due to short notice and injuries. He believes Murphy's composure and technical striking will outpoint Culibao, and notes the UK crowd advantage. The Guru also mentions Murphy's ability to find top position and his difficulty to finish.

"I've got to go with larone Murphy"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 93 of 161 57% 115 of 183 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Gabriel Santos 0 69 of 122 56% 87 of 141 5 of 11 45% 0 0 4:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 33 of 58 56% 37 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Gabriel Santos 0 36 of 54 66% 37 of 55 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:39
2 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 44 56% 36 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
Gabriel Santos 0 13 of 32 40% 26 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
3 Lerone Murphy 0 35 of 59 59% 42 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Gabriel Santos 0 20 of 36 55% 24 of 40 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 93 of 161 57% 59 of 117 27 of 37 7 of 7 77 of 144 12 of 12 4 of 5
Gabriel Santos 69 of 122 56% 32 of 73 24 of 34 13 of 15 55 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 33 of 58 56% 18 of 39 12 of 16 3 of 3 29 of 54 2 of 2 2 of 2
Gabriel Santos 36 of 54 66% 16 of 31 13 of 16 7 of 7 29 of 45 7 of 8 0 of 1
2 Lerone Murphy 25 of 44 56% 13 of 30 10 of 12 2 of 2 18 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 3
Gabriel Santos 13 of 32 40% 8 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 1
3 Lerone Murphy 35 of 59 59% 28 of 48 5 of 9 2 of 2 30 of 54 5 of 5 0 of 0
Gabriel Santos 20 of 36 55% 8 of 20 8 of 10 4 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo thinks Murphy should win because he is the better striker with good footwork and power, and he has a full camp. However, he is wary of Murphy's layoff and the short-notice opponent. He notes Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well. He is staying away from betting due to the uncertainty.

"I do think larone Murphy wins this fight these odds are probably where they should be minus 275 was a little steep."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Murphy, citing his power (knockout wins over Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos) and Santos' hittability and questionable durability. He notes Santos is dangerous everywhere but took the fight on short notice and is making a long flight. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Santos could have success early.

"I'm leaning towards Murphy to get that knockout win here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, citing his precise striking, lateral movement, and high ring IQ. He notes Murphy has fought good wrestlers and defended takedowns well. He thinks Santos, on short notice, won't be able to take Murphy down and will lose a decision. He mentions Murphy's 16-month layoff is a concern but believes he's still a good fighter.

"I like Laurel Murphy because all those facts are true... I think that Murphy just moves laterally stays out of the way sticks and moves lands the more precise shots and uh eventually wins the fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy but expects a close fight. He notes that Murphy starts slow but is resourceful and has great cardio, often coming back to win. Santos is a solid, well-rounded fighter but may run out of ideas as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions the short-notice factor favoring Murphy.

"I'm gonna take Murphy, but I like the fight a lot."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Jacob picks Murphy but with low confidence due to his defensive wrestling holes. He thinks Murphy is the better striker but if Santos gets the fight to the ground, it could be trouble. He notes Murphy's takedown defense has been improving. He is not betting but would feel better if Murphy stuffs the first takedown.

"my confidence level right now I think those odds are correct it's probably like a five or or six for larone."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is explosive with big power and a good calf kick, but has grappling flaws and a layoff due to head injury. Santos is a short-notice replacement with a wild pressure style and defensive holes. Murphy's speed and power should exploit Santos's striking deficiencies, leading to a knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think it's going to be that speed and an explosiveness of LaRon Murphy that'll allow him to take advantage of the Striking defense deficiencies in Gabriel Santos's game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy but hesitantly, as he hasn't done full research on Santos. He says Murphy is a solid fighter on a good run, but the layoff and short-notice opponent are unknowns. He says the pick is Murphy but could change after looking at tape.

"for the purpose of the show I'll pick Laurel Murphy but uh that could change based on me looking up some tape"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos, acknowledging Santos is a dangerous prospect but noting he is on short notice. Murphy has a full camp and has shown composure against tough opponents like Zubaira Tukhugov. He predicts Murphy will win a 29-28 decision after a rough first round, trusting his experience and well-rounded game.

Murphy wins by decision 29-28
"I'm going with Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane also picks Murphy, noting that Murphy's ability to adapt and his physicality will be key. He points out that Santos looked good in his LFA fight but may struggle with Murphy's pressure and clinch work. Zane expects momentum shifts and a competitive fight.

"I'll take Murphy as well."
KO (knee) R2 0:14 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 4 of 6 66% 12 of 16 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 3 of 4 75% 11 of 14 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Lerone Murphy 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.

Murphy by decision; live betting Murphy after first round
"I'm going to pick him to win by decision i think maquon's very tough but i think he's i think he's a gasser."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.

"i think i can just improve it by waiting three to five minutes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.

predicts third-round knockout and 50k bonus
"i think euron murphy's going to knock up machuan amerikani out probably third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.

Murphy by KO +150, Murphy in round 3 +850, under 2.5 rounds +100, fight doesn't go to decision -120.
"I think that lauren murphy survives the early onslaught on the ground uh keeps the fight vertical for the second and third round but eventually finds that finish in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.

Murphy by decision +165 (DraftKings)
"laurel murphy by decision would probably be the way to attack this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.

ko by ground and pound
"lauren murphy gets this one down he's got a strong base he's a physical specimen very strong for the featherweight division"