Career Averages - Darren Elkins
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
Darren Elkins - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 54 of 73 | 73% | 69 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 54 of 73 | 73% | 69 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Julian Erosa | 54 of 73 | 73% | 52 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 11 of 12 | 21 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Julian Erosa | 54 of 73 | 73% | 52 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 11 of 12 | 21 of 22 |
Connor also picks Julian Erosa, agreeing that Elkins' recent wins have come against fighters who implode. He notes that Erosa's front-headlock game is actually sound and that he is a momentum fighter who builds as the fight goes on. Connor believes Elkins will look old and shot in this matchup, similar to the Cub Swanson fight.
Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.
Zane picks Julian Erosa, arguing that Darren Elkins only beats fighters who implode, and Erosa does not tend to do that. He notes that Elkins has lost speed, durability, and strength, and that Erosa's momentum-based game will overwhelm him. Zane acknowledges Erosa's vulnerability to early knockouts but doubts Elkins has the power to capitalize.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 102 of 170 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 6:33 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 61 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 3:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:07 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 27 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:07 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 39 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 78 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 70 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 |
| Daniel Pineda | 31 of 53 | 58% | 21 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Pineda | 13 of 15 | 86% | 12 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 19 of 47 | 40% | 15 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Daniel Pineda | 12 of 24 | 50% | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 17 of 33 | 51% | 12 of 28 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.
Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.
The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.
Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 95 of 146 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 8:09 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 45 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 53 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 28 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 2:49 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 32 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:48 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 11 of 33 | 33% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 15 of 50 | 30% | 11 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 9 of 29 | 31% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.
Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.
The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.
Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 57 of 193 | 29% | 67 of 203 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 110 of 222 | 49% | 154 of 276 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 11 of 57 | 19% | 14 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 35 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 22 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 44 of 68 | 64% | 74 of 106 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:29 | |
| 3 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 31 of 89 | 34% | 31 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 45 of 100 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 57 of 193 | 29% | 47 of 176 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 49 of 177 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 110 of 222 | 49% | 80 of 188 | 18 of 22 | 12 of 12 | 66 of 159 | 14 of 20 | 30 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 11 of 57 | 19% | 9 of 51 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 30 of 64 | 46% | 16 of 47 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 15 of 47 | 31% | 14 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 37 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 44 of 68 | 64% | 37 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 23 of 31 | |
| 3 | Jonathan Pearce | 31 of 89 | 34% | 24 of 82 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 85 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 36 of 90 | 40% | 27 of 80 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 81 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.
Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.
Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.
Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.
Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.
The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.
Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.
The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.
Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 75 of 151 | 49% | 165 of 259 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 7:52 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 66 of 117 | 56% | 106 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 55 of 84 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 34 of 50 | 68% | 37 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 70 of 105 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 43 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 75 of 151 | 49% | 66 of 141 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 107 | 29 of 34 | 8 of 10 |
| Tristan Connelly | 66 of 117 | 56% | 48 of 96 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 42 of 87 | 21 of 27 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 19 of 39 | 48% | 17 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
| Tristan Connelly | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 28 of 56 | 50% | 27 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 42 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Tristan Connelly | 34 of 50 | 68% | 22 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 23 of 38 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 28 of 56 | 50% | 22 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 37 | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Tristan Connelly | 25 of 49 | 51% | 19 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.
Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.
Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.
The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.
Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.
The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.
Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.
Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.
Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.
Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.
The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.
Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 137 of 154 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 3:01 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 4:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 43 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 36 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 3:17 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 94 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:17 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 20 of 30 | 66% | 18 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 23 |
| Darrick Minner | 19 of 35 | 54% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Darrick Minner | 19 of 33 | 57% | 14 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 14 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.
Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.
Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.
Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.
Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.
The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.
The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 32 of 72 | 44% | 120 of 168 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:34 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 48 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 55 of 69 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 32 of 72 | 44% | 21 of 58 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 55 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 2 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 36 of 78 | 46% | 28 of 69 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 12 of 21 | 57% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 18 of 40 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady is confident in Elkins due to Garagorri's poor takedown defense (53%) and Elkins' wrestling. He notes Elkins can submit him and that Garagorri has been taken down multiple times before. However, he is hesitant to bet at -230 and suggests looking at the submission prop.
Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins, but notes he prefers him at underdog odds. He believes Elkins can get takedowns against Garagorri, who has poor takedown defense. Levi is concerned about Elkins' decline and tendency to get cut, but thinks his wrestling will be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges Garagorri's power and potential to cause damage, but sees Elkins as the safer pick.
The host picks Elkins via decision, citing his superior grappling, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Garagorri's lack of takedown defense and training in Uruguay as weaknesses. He is slightly concerned about Garagorri's power and speed but believes Elkins will drown him with relentless takedowns and top pressure.
The MMA Guru picks Darren Elkins to win by unanimous decision. He dismisses Eduardo Garagorri as having not shown up in some fights and lacking competition. He notes Elkins's experience against tough grapplers like Ryan Hall and his ability to avoid submissions.
Michael Johnson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.
Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.
Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.
James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.
The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.
Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.
Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 80 of 195 | 41% | 81 of 196 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 52 of 182 | 28% | 52 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 30 of 77 | 38% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 80 of 195 | 41% | 27 of 100 | 42 of 81 | 11 of 14 | 77 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 52 of 182 | 28% | 19 of 125 | 27 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 50 of 180 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 24 of 56 | 42% | 4 of 22 | 15 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 12 of 46 | 26% | 2 of 23 | 7 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 77 | 38% | 14 of 47 | 10 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 66 | 25% | 7 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 26 of 62 | 41% | 9 of 31 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 23 of 70 | 32% | 10 of 51 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.
Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.
Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.
The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.
Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.
Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.
Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.
Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.
Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 61 of 112 | 54% | 80 of 138 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:02 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 52 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 40 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 61 of 112 | 54% | 16 of 47 | 36 of 52 | 9 of 13 | 58 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Darrius Flowers | 33 of 64 | 51% | 10 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 32 of 60 | 53% | 7 of 23 | 17 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrius Flowers | 20 of 36 | 55% | 1 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 8 of 20 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Darrius Flowers | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Darrius Flowers | 6 of 8 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.
Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.
Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 46 | 10 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 32 of 58 | 55% | 13 of 34 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 24 of 55 | 43% | 13 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.
Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.
Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.
The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.
Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 83 of 181 | 45% | 83 of 181 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 55 of 127 | 43% | 55 of 127 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 83 of 181 | 45% | 37 of 116 | 37 of 55 | 9 of 10 | 79 of 171 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 3 |
| Marc Diakiese | 55 of 127 | 43% | 21 of 80 | 24 of 31 | 10 of 16 | 52 of 124 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Marc Diakiese | 23 of 38 | 60% | 6 of 16 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 61 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 11 of 40 | 27% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 41 of 79 | 51% | 18 of 48 | 19 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Marc Diakiese | 21 of 49 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 19 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.
Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.
Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.
The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.
Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.
Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 66 of 190 | 34% | 68 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 96 of 217 | 44% | 96 of 218 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 45 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 31 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 66 of 190 | 34% | 42 of 147 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 179 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 96 of 217 | 44% | 54 of 160 | 21 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 83 of 195 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 44 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 45 of 95 | 47% | 24 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 34 of 79 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 70 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 31 of 69 | 44% | 20 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.
Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.
Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.
The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.
Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.
The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.
Darren looked really slow.