UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Jan 14, 2018 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi Next Fight
Age 42
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Darren Elkins
3.4 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
3.34 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.87 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
4.27 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.57 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Darren Elkins - Fight History
LOSS vs Julian Erosa
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Julian Erosa

Connor also picks Julian Erosa, agreeing that Elkins' recent wins have come against fighters who implode. He notes that Erosa's front-headlock game is actually sound and that he is a momentum fighter who builds as the fight goes on. Connor believes Elkins will look old and shot in this matchup, similar to the Cub Swanson fight.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I got to pick Erosa here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane picks Julian Erosa, arguing that Darren Elkins only beats fighters who implode, and Erosa does not tend to do that. He notes that Elkins has lost speed, durability, and strength, and that Erosa's momentum-based game will overwhelm him. Zane acknowledges Erosa's vulnerability to early knockouts but doubts Elkins has the power to capitalize.

Elkins opened at +319, now +266; Erosa opened at -481, now -329.
"I got to pick Erosa here."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 39 of 88 44% 102 of 170 3 of 12 25% 0 1 6:33
Daniel Pineda 0 31 of 53 58% 61 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 1 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 3 of 8 37% 23 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:07
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 15 86% 27 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:07
2 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 47 40% 39 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:24
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 24 50% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Darren Elkins 0 17 of 33 51% 40 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:02
Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 14 42% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 39 of 88 44% 30 of 78 9 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 70 3 of 7 8 of 11
Daniel Pineda 31 of 53 58% 21 of 38 7 of 10 3 of 5 17 of 37 1 of 1 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 13 of 15 86% 12 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Darren Elkins 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 7 of 10
Daniel Pineda 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 3 10 of 22 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 17 of 33 51% 12 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 27 3 of 6 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.

bet on Elkins at +102
"Darren Elkins is going to be the pick and I have a bet on him at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.

third round knockout
"I'm going Darren Elkin One Last Ride uh to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.

"I am inclined to pick a 40 year old Darren Elkins with the full knowledge that he may get knocked out immediately"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"as long as Elkin durability holds up early he should be able to break pan down and find a finish in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.

TKO or submission, calf kicks, guillotine
"I'm going to go with Daniel panada getting this one done by TKO or submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.

Elkins opened +111, now +100; Pineda opened -123, now -112; Zane says there's no reason Pineda should be a favorite
"I'm taking Elkins can't feel good about it, but I also don't feel like I can really pick Panetta"
WIN vs T.J. Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 11 of 33 33% 95 of 146 5 of 8 62% 2 1 8:09
T.J. Brown 0 15 of 50 30% 45 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 11 18% 53 of 80 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:32
T.J. Brown 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
2 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 16 43% 28 of 43 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:49
T.J. Brown 0 9 of 29 31% 32 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:44
3 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:48
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 11 of 33 33% 8 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 15 of 50 30% 11 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 2 of 11 18% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 7 of 16 43% 4 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 9 of 29 31% 7 of 26 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.

"I am fairly confident that TJ is going to be able to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.

Elkins by finish in round 3
"I'm going to pick Darren alkins for the up set I think TJ Brown probably looks really good early but in TJ Brown fashion I expect him to make a mistake as the fight goes on or gas out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.

Live bet on Elkins after first round
"I got Elkins he's the underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

Brown wins inside distance +165
"taking him to win inside the distance at plus 165 probably a good way of taking this chalky spot and making a plus money spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.

Bet Darren Elkins at +160
"I've got Darren Elkins plus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.

"I'm going to go TJ Brown over Darren Elkins nothing personal against Darren Elkins but he fights like a geriatric old man these days"
LOSS vs Jonathan Pearce
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 57 of 193 29% 67 of 203 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:48
Darren Elkins 0 110 of 222 49% 154 of 276 2 of 7 28% 0 1 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 11 of 57 19% 14 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Darren Elkins 0 30 of 64 46% 35 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 15 of 47 31% 22 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Darren Elkins 0 44 of 68 64% 74 of 106 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:29
3 Jonathan Pearce 0 31 of 89 34% 31 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Elkins 0 36 of 90 40% 45 of 100 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 57 of 193 29% 47 of 176 9 of 15 1 of 2 49 of 177 8 of 16 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 110 of 222 49% 80 of 188 18 of 22 12 of 12 66 of 159 14 of 20 30 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 11 of 57 19% 9 of 51 2 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 30 of 64 46% 16 of 47 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 51 4 of 5 5 of 8
2 Jonathan Pearce 15 of 47 31% 14 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 37 5 of 10 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 44 of 68 64% 37 of 61 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 8 of 10 23 of 31
3 Jonathan Pearce 31 of 89 34% 24 of 82 6 of 6 1 of 1 29 of 85 2 of 4 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 36 of 90 40% 27 of 80 4 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.

"Jonathan Pierce is going to be the pick he's got the power in his hands he's got the grappling but I'm gonna need him to Grapple first and not wait for Elkins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.

Pearce wins by decision
"I like Jonathan Pierce to win I like him to win by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.

"in terms of a pick it's got to be pierced Pierce got to get this thing done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.

"I got to pick Pierce. It'll be really funny if Elkins just goes out there and be awesome."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.

"I think that this is just the passing of the torch type fight and I think the line reflects that so jsb is my pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.

under 2.5 rounds -135; Pearce inside the distance; Pearce round 1
"the under two and a half I'm currently seeing it around that minus 135 range which I think is a steal of a price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.

Elkins by decision at +800
"I see Darren Elkins by decision out there plus 800 Cody I don't know if I can help myself but to throw a little sprinkle on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.

Pearce by dominant decision (30-27) or late TKO
"I'm going to be going with Jonathan Pierce I think again this is one of the locks of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.

"I'm not picking Darren Elkins. I'm there. I'm not picking this man anymore. I have not liked the way he has looked for, it feels like 20 years now."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 75 of 151 49% 165 of 259 5 of 10 50% 1 0 7:52
Tristan Connelly 0 66 of 117 56% 106 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 39 48% 55 of 84 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:40
Tristan Connelly 0 7 of 18 38% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:07
Tristan Connelly 0 34 of 50 68% 37 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 70 of 105 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:05
Tristan Connelly 0 25 of 49 51% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 75 of 151 49% 66 of 141 9 of 10 0 of 0 38 of 107 29 of 34 8 of 10
Tristan Connelly 66 of 117 56% 48 of 96 9 of 12 9 of 9 42 of 87 21 of 27 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 19 of 39 48% 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 2 7 of 9
Tristan Connelly 7 of 18 38% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 27 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 42 11 of 13 1 of 1
Tristan Connelly 34 of 50 68% 22 of 38 5 of 5 7 of 7 23 of 38 9 of 10 2 of 2
3 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 22 of 49 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 37 16 of 19 0 of 0
Tristan Connelly 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 33 11 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.

"i do like tristan connolly to get it done but the reality is darren elkins is a guy that you can never count out of a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

decision
"i'm going to take uh darren elkins to win i think he's going to mix and take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.

"i'm gonna back another underdog here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.

"i'll go with elkins just because if you give me the best version of both guys i do think elkins grinds that out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.

Connelly by decision +300, fight goes to decision -185
"i think connolly's live he's a junkyard dog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.

"i think this is another live dog that we're looking at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Connelly by decision or late finish; Connelly is an underdog
"i'm taking tristan connolly over darren elkins here... i'm gonna go with tristan connolly grinding out a decision and ending up winning the last two rounds or maybe getting a late rounds finish"
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
TKO (punches) R2 3:48 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 20 of 30 66% 137 of 154 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:01
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 35 54% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 3 2 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 4 of 7 57% 43 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:44
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 33 57% 36 of 53 1 of 1 100% 3 2 3:17
2 Darren Elkins 0 16 of 23 69% 94 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:17
Darrick Minner 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 20 of 30 66% 18 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 23
Darrick Minner 19 of 35 54% 14 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 13 4 of 7 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1
Darrick Minner 19 of 33 57% 14 of 25 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 12 4 of 7 10 of 14
2 Darren Elkins 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 22
Darrick Minner 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.

under on rounds; less/less on monkey knife fight
"i have derrick minor winning i have derrick minner in my lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.

Elkins by second round finish (KO or sub)
"i'm gonna side with the dog and darren elkins... i'm going to say that elkins pushes a pace that manor is not going to be able to keep up with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.

"i'm gonna go with jared elkins take a dog pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darrick Minner

Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.

"i think minor can open blood on this guy very early"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"minor i think eventually we'll we'll submit them some minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.

Elkins by decision +290; Elkins inside the distance +350; Elkins round three +1700 (sprinkle)
"i do like darren elkins in the spot i'm gonna go uh out as an official pick i'm going to go with elkins by decision at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.

"that was my first bet of the card i found a uh a plus 152"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.

"i'm going to pick him to beat darren elkins and get the job done"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:22 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 32 of 72 44% 120 of 168 7 of 21 33% 1 0 7:34
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 36 of 78 46% 48 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 12 of 21 57% 55 of 69 5 of 12 41% 0 0 4:06
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 33 39% 41 of 64 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:40
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 18 of 40 45% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 18 38% 24 of 35 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:48
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 32 of 72 44% 21 of 58 10 of 13 1 of 1 18 of 55 12 of 15 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 36 of 78 46% 28 of 69 8 of 9 0 of 0 30 of 69 3 of 4 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 12 of 21 57% 8 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 8 of 9 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 18 of 40 45% 14 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 3
3 Darren Elkins 7 of 18 38% 4 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 13 of 30 43% 10 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady is confident in Elkins due to Garagorri's poor takedown defense (53%) and Elkins' wrestling. He notes Elkins can submit him and that Garagorri has been taken down multiple times before. However, he is hesitant to bet at -230 and suggests looking at the submission prop.

submission prop
"I'm going to take darren elkins and I know he's towards the end of his career... but the path to victory is written all over the wall here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins, but notes he prefers him at underdog odds. He believes Elkins can get takedowns against Garagorri, who has poor takedown defense. Levi is concerned about Elkins' decline and tendency to get cut, but thinks his wrestling will be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges Garagorri's power and potential to cause damage, but sees Elkins as the safer pick.

decision
"i'm gonna go with elkins to win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Elkins via decision, citing his superior grappling, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Garagorri's lack of takedown defense and training in Uruguay as weaknesses. He is slightly concerned about Garagorri's power and speed but believes Elkins will drown him with relentless takedowns and top pressure.

"I like elgin's here i don't mind him at the minus 200 range... possible parley piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The MMA Guru picks Darren Elkins to win by unanimous decision. He dismisses Eduardo Garagorri as having not shown up in some fights and lacking competition. He notes Elkins's experience against tough grapplers like Ryan Hall and his ability to avoid submissions.

"i'm definitely gonna go with darren elkins against eduardo gegori"
Michael Johnson - Fight History
LOSS vs Drew Dober
KO R2 1:53 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Drew Dober 1 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 22 of 55 40% 9 of 33 7 of 14 6 of 8 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 27 of 76 35% 18 of 55 0 of 11 9 of 10 27 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 18 of 51 35% 9 of 31 0 of 11 9 of 9 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 9 of 25 36% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.

Dober by second round knockout
"Give me give me Dober as a dog with very little confidence, but I'll take Dober to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.

"Ang Michael Johnson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.

Odds: Johnson opened at -185, now -122; Dober opened at +160, now +102.
"I think I have to take Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.

"I'm going to go Drew Dober to come out here and get this upset after an early scare."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.

Fight ends via KO
"I am picking Michael Johnson to win the fight. The reason I'm picking him to win the fight is because he's faster than Drew Dober and hits probably just as hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.

Johnson by knockout
"I have to lean with Johnson and I think you have to make him the slight favorite because of the technical advantages that he has in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.

"Johnson either detonates one upside that chin or just puts in the better of volume over the course of two of those three rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.

KO in round two
"Drew Dober is gonna knock out Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.

Odds: Johnson -122, Dober +102.
"Me too. Unless Drew Dover hits his legendary lap drop."
UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.
"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision
"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout
"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 80 of 195 41% 81 of 196 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Daniel Zellhuber 0 52 of 182 28% 52 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 30 of 77 38% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 66 25% 17 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 80 of 195 41% 27 of 100 42 of 81 11 of 14 77 of 189 0 of 0 3 of 6
Daniel Zellhuber 52 of 182 28% 19 of 125 27 of 48 6 of 9 50 of 180 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 24 of 56 42% 4 of 22 15 of 28 5 of 6 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 1
Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 46 26% 2 of 23 7 of 17 3 of 6 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 77 38% 14 of 47 10 of 23 6 of 7 27 of 72 0 of 0 3 of 5
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 66 25% 7 of 51 9 of 14 1 of 1 16 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 26 of 62 41% 9 of 31 17 of 30 0 of 1 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 23 of 70 32% 10 of 51 11 of 17 2 of 2 22 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.

"Daniel Huber is the pick. I like Michael Johnson. Father time comes from everybody."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.

Zellhuber by second round knockout
"I think Zel Heber is going to put it on him throughout the fight and eventually either touch the chin or ... win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.

"I'm still picking Zellhuber for pace and because I do think that Johnson's form of choosiness is still not one that's safe."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.

knockout within two rounds
"I'm going with the Mexican fighter here as I think he can pick apart Johnson from distance and I think that will eventually line up a big knockout for him and I expect it to happen within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Zel Huba over Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.

"I'm going to take Zellhuber too. On a completely dumb predictive algorithm kind of level."
KO (punch) R2 2:03 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Ottman Azaitar 0 16 of 56 28% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 37 27% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 19 of 50 38% 13 of 37 3 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 46 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 16 of 56 28% 8 of 39 7 of 12 1 of 5 15 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 11 of 31 35% 6 of 21 3 of 6 2 of 4 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 37 27% 5 of 25 5 of 9 0 of 3 9 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 8 of 19 42% 7 of 16 0 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 6 of 19 31% 3 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.

Caution on betting due to Johnson's chin.
"Johnson is the better fighter everywhere outside of just raw power and even though he is old he should be able to control the Striking potentially get takedowns and ultimately win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.

fight doesn't go to distance
"I'm gonna pick Michael Johnson just because I have to because he's he's such he's so much better than Atman a zitar at everything but aitar has power and Michael Johnson loves to lose fights he's supposed to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.

"I'm going Michael Johnson as well I think Michael Johnson just beats him I I honestly do."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.

"I don't think he's doing MMA is a thing where he cares about winning MMA fights. It's just about taking them every now and then still to serve as a buffer to remind people that he's still a pro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.

"I'm gonna take opman aitar for the upset win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.

wins by KO in round 1 or early round 2
"I believe that will be the case here once again as he goes up against heavy haired opman Zer who should be able to crash the pocket consistently and end up finding a knockout Victory within the first round and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I like the unders in this fight Michael Johnson is my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to say Michael Johnson chins otoman aitar in about round two"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.

Azaitar opened at +186, Johnson at -214; Zane notes the odds are widening in Johnson's favor and he can't argue with it.
"I think it's a pretty straightforward Michael Johnson pick for me. 38 years be damned."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 61 of 112 54% 80 of 138 4 of 8 50% 0 0 6:02
Darrius Flowers 0 33 of 64 51% 52 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Darrius Flowers 0 20 of 36 55% 20 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 40 of 64 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:12
Darrius Flowers 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Michael Johnson 0 2 of 6 33% 8 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:44
Darrius Flowers 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 61 of 112 54% 16 of 47 36 of 52 9 of 13 58 of 109 0 of 0 3 of 3
Darrius Flowers 33 of 64 51% 10 of 31 9 of 12 14 of 21 29 of 60 1 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 32 of 60 53% 7 of 23 17 of 27 8 of 10 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darrius Flowers 20 of 36 55% 1 of 9 6 of 8 13 of 19 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 8 of 20 19 of 25 0 of 1 25 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 2
Darrius Flowers 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Darrius Flowers 6 of 8 75% 5 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darrius Flowers

Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.

"The pick has to be Darius for all of those factors."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.

second round submission
"I'm going to hesitantly pick Michael Johnson whenever you pick Michael Johnson you have to do it very hesitantly but I'm going to pick him to win this fight second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.

"Johnson's a guy that seems to have the superior skill set in pretty much every aspect of the game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.

"I had low confidence earlier when I originally started this matchup but the closer that we're getting to the fight I'm starting to think that Johnson is a no-brainer play here especially at that minus 125 line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I like Johnson I like Johnson to get a job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.

TKO in the second round or first round
"I'm going with Michael Johnson over Darius flowers... I reckon he's going to get it done by TKO in the second round or first round over Darius flowers."
KO (punch) R2 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 30 of 71 42% 17 of 46 10 of 21 3 of 4 29 of 70 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 32 of 58 55% 13 of 34 17 of 20 2 of 4 32 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 24 of 55 43% 13 of 37 8 of 14 3 of 4 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 12 of 29 13 of 14 2 of 3 27 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.

"I like Michael Johnson as The Underdog in this spot I fully expect this to be a dog fight it should be close but I don't want to hear any narrative about how old Michael Johnson is because Diego's even …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.

decision
"give me Michael Johnson to pull off the upset but trusting Michael Johnson with my money is not something I've done in a very long time"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.

"I'm just going to take Carlos Jagger Pharaoh but again how could you feel good about this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm just gonna pick him too. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.

"I'm gonna pick Carlos Diego because I think in both of their primes Diego wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.

"if Michael Johnson's striking defense and his durability holds up in this matchup as well as his takedown defense he should be able to style on Diego fejera in the Striking realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"Carlos Diego Ferreira at this point in the week will be my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Michael Johnson ... I think he's going to KO him as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm still gonna pick him. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson and I'm not yet willing to believe that he's just entirely erased that problem."
WIN vs Marc Diakiese
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 83 of 181 45% 83 of 181 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Marc Diakiese 0 55 of 127 43% 55 of 127 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 41 of 79 51% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 83 of 181 45% 37 of 116 37 of 55 9 of 10 79 of 171 3 of 7 1 of 3
Marc Diakiese 55 of 127 43% 21 of 80 24 of 31 10 of 16 52 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 12 of 41 29% 5 of 29 5 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 2
Marc Diakiese 23 of 38 60% 6 of 16 9 of 14 8 of 8 22 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 61 49% 14 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 4 30 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 40 27% 5 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 41 of 79 51% 18 of 48 19 of 27 4 of 4 38 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 1
Marc Diakiese 21 of 49 42% 10 of 35 10 of 11 1 of 3 19 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."
LOSS vs Jamie Mullarkey
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 1 66 of 190 34% 68 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Michael Johnson 0 96 of 217 44% 96 of 218 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 1 18 of 42 42% 20 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Michael Johnson 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 45 of 95 47% 45 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 30 of 91 32% 30 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Johnson 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 66 of 190 34% 42 of 147 22 of 41 2 of 2 58 of 179 4 of 5 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 96 of 217 44% 54 of 160 21 of 34 21 of 23 83 of 195 11 of 18 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 42 42% 12 of 33 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 20 of 53 37% 10 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 7 18 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 4
2 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 57 31% 11 of 44 6 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 45 of 95 47% 24 of 69 11 of 15 10 of 11 34 of 79 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 30 of 91 32% 19 of 70 11 of 21 0 of 0 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 31 of 69 44% 20 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.

Moneyline bet on Michael Johnson as underdog.
"I think he wins this fight... I think I'm going money line bet on michael johnson as well two to one underdog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.

"i'm going to take jamie malarkey to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.

"sign me up for jamie malarkey but again the price tag is not great and i wouldn't fault anybody for for banking on michael johnson's uh great footwork and huge power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
Michael Johnson

The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.

1 unit on Johnson moneyline +225. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -174. Parlay includes under 2.5 for this fight.
"I'm also going to go one unit on Michael Johnson plus 225. again a value play here in a sense I think he's the better Striker than malarkey I think he's faster than malarkey I think he can knock him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.

"i'm kind of i kind of want to bet the underdog here but i don't want to pull the trigger on michael johnson because the guy's an absolute flake"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.

finish in round three
"I got to go with Jamie Mullarkey here."