UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

Angelo picks Chris Daukaus with a unit on the moneyline at -140. He believes Daukaus is more technically sound, has more power, and should win. He notes that every Derrick Lewis prediction is the same: pick the other guy but give the caveat that Lewis can knock anyone out. Angelo thinks Daukaus will do the right thing and win, but acknowledges Lewis has a puncher's chance.

Big Brady picks Chris Daukaus by first-round knockout, citing his high volume (9.03 significant strikes per minute) and improved cardio after quitting his police job. He notes Lewis's low volume and susceptibility to being hit, but acknowledges Lewis's power and comeback ability. He expects Daukaus to land volume and finish Lewis early, but admits Lewis can never be counted out.

Cody likes Daukaus's speed and mobility at heavyweight, noting his fast hands and BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Daukaus's cardio concerns from his last loss but believes it has improved. He thinks Daukaus can win wherever the fight goes, but warns that Derrick Lewis always carries KO power, so Daukaus must be careful. Cody picks Daukaus but is cautious about the line.

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win by knockout. He acknowledges Chris Daukaus's fast hands and impressive 4-0 UFC start with four KOs, but questions Daukaus's durability over five rounds, noting his past knockout loss. Levi believes Lewis's experience and comeback ability, as seen against Volkov and Blaydes, will be key. He expects Lewis to survive the early onslaught and finish Daukaus in the later rounds.

Jacob picks Chris Daukaus, citing Lewis' disappointing performance against Ciryl Gane where he quit. He believes Lewis is on the decline and that Daukaus is a much better fighter from top to bottom. Jacob hopes Daukaus avoids the one big shot and wins to bring fresh talent to the top of the division. He thinks Daukaus should win easily.

The host picks Daukaus by KO, citing his superior boxing and movement. He thinks Daukaus will stay safe, work the body, and eventually finish Lewis. However, he acknowledges Lewis's power and is not fully confident, so he prefers the KO prop at +120 over the moneyline.

Paul agrees with Daukaus but is more cautious, citing Daukaus's lack of shown wrestling and the size difference (Lewis is 270-280 lbs on fight night). He compares the matchup to the Volkov fight where Lewis was losing until a last-second KO. Paul warns that Lewis only needs one strike, so he advises against getting too heavily invested at -140.

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis as an underdog to win by first-round KO. He notes Daukaus is hittable and has poor head movement, as seen in the Abdurakhimov fight. He thinks Lewis has the power and size advantage, and Daukaus is not big enough to grapple with Lewis. He predicts Lewis will land a big right hand over the top for the KO.

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.

Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.

Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.

The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.

Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.

The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, believing she is the real deal and that this fight is set up to showcase her. He notes Lemos has power, wrestling, and BJJ, and can win anywhere. He mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet on Angela Hill if she can survive early and steal a third round, but he doesn't commit to it. He thinks Lemos will win early and put up solid points in DFS.

Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos by decision, despite concerns about her level of competition and cardio. He notes Hill has never been knocked out and has fought tougher competition. He expects Lemos to win the first two rounds clearly but possibly slow down in the third. He doesn't understand the wide line but thinks Lemos passes the test.

Cody is surprised by the line, calling Lemos a -350 favorite despite no notable wins. He notes Lemos's striking is one-dimensional (power leg kick, right hand) and she tires when extended. Hill has high volume, good cardio, and a durable chin. Cody thinks the fight will likely go to decision and Hill's experience and output give her a good chance. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation and leans Hill.

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Lemos confidently, calling her one of the locks of the night. He highlights Lemos's power, noting she has four knockdowns since 2020 while Hill has only three in her entire UFC career. Levi criticizes Hill's lack of improvement, tendency to gas, and questionable decision wins. He believes Lemos's southpaw stance, reach, youth, and explosive style will be too much for Hill, predicting a dominant decision with a knockdown or a late finish.

Jacob picks Amanda Lemos, calling her the Conor McGregor of the women's 115 division due to her sneaky power. He thinks Lemos will likely get a first-round knockout, but notes that if Hill survives the first round, she has a chance because Lemos may gas. Jacob suggests live betting on Hill if she survives the first round, as her odds could balloon. He plans to play Lemos all the way.

The host leans towards Lemos by decision, noting that Hill is difficult to finish but Lemos should land the more damaging shots. He thinks the fight goes the distance and likes the decision prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -300 on the moneyline.

Paul agrees the line is wide and thinks Hill by decision at +500 is a good play. He expects Lemos to come out hot and try to finish early, but if she doesn't, Hill's cardio and volume will take over. Paul plans to watch live and possibly bet Hill live if Lemos slows down.

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an underdog, predicting a 29-28 decision. He argues that KO power at strawweight is inconsistent and Hill is more well-rounded and experienced. He notes Hill has a good chin and has been in there with tough opponents. He expects Hill to survive an early onslaught, then outwork Lemos in the later rounds as Lemos gasses.

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, placing 3 units on him at -200. He believes Gamrot should be -350 or -400, as he can win striking exchanges and dominate the wrestling. Angelo notes that Ferreira is a good BJJ player but Gamrot's top control is a big obstacle, and Ferreira would need to sweep to win. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling neutralizes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu and that Gamrot is a future champion.

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot by decision, praising his well-rounded skills, cardio, and IQ. He notes Ferreira's age (36) and cardio concerns, but acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and solid striking. He expects a competitive fight but believes Gamrot's volume and takedown mixing will earn him a decision win. He thinks the line is wider than the fight will be.

Cody is a Gamrot fan, calling him 'Polish GSP' for his well-rounded skills. He notes Gamrot's excellent cardio, striking, and grappling, and that he now trains at American Top Team. Cody sees a path to victory via smothering wrestling and pace, similar to how Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie beat Ferreira. He acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and crafty striking but thinks Gamrot's youth and cardio will be too much.

Daniel Levi leans toward Mateusz Gamrot but is not fully confident. He respects Ferreira's elite jiu-jitsu but notes Ferreira has struggled with cardio and weight cuts in recent fights, gassing against Gregor Gillespie and Beneil Dariush. Levi thinks Gamrot's wrestling and top control will be effective as the fight progresses, especially if Ferreira tires. He acknowledges Gamrot's unorthodox takedown style and solid chin, but is wary of Ferreira's submission threats early.

Jacob agrees with Angelo, calling Gamrot the real deal. He notes that Ferreira is a Fortis MMA guy who tends to fall back against top competition. Jacob believes Gamrot's patient, controlling wrestling will allow him to take Ferreira down and wait for an opportunity to finish. He thinks Gamrot will dominate from start to finish and possibly get an early finish.

The host picks Gamrot by decision, believing his chain wrestling and improved striking will allow him to outwork Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira is slowing down and Gamrot is on the rise. He likes the decision prop at +145.

Paul agrees with Gamrot, citing his five-round experience in KSW and his ability to keep a high pace. He notes that Ferreira has struggled against wrestlers with good cardio, as seen in the Gillespie fight. Paul thinks Gamrot should execute a wrestling-heavy game plan and grind Ferreira down, but he doesn't love the price.

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by second-round TKO. He notes Gamrot is well-rounded with good grappling, stand-up, cardio, and chin. He thinks Ferreira has slowed down recently and is 36 years old. He expects Gamrot to use feints and takedown threats to land a right hand, similar to the Holtzman fight. He sees Gamrot's power and speed being too much.

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.

Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.

Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.

Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.

The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.

Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.

The MMA Guru calls this one of the locks of the card, picking Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round guillotine choke. He notes Meerschaert has been looking great recently and Stoltzfus is one-dimensional. He thinks Stoltzfus cannot take Meerschaert down or submit him, and Meerschaert will land big shots and latch on a guillotine when Stoltzfus shoots for a takedown.

Angelo picks Justin Tafa but thinks the odds are nuts. He believes Tafa should be a slight favorite around -150, not -400. He notes Tafa's chin is good and he has leg kicks, but Hunsucker is dangerous with his blitzing style. Angelo considers a small sprinkle on Hunsucker because it's heavyweight and both hit hard. He ultimately goes with Tafa but is not confident.

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round knockout, citing Hunsucker's terrible gas tank (about 2.5 minutes) and tendency to fold. He notes Tafa's 100% finish rate and leg kick potential. He acknowledges Hunsucker could pull off an upset if he lands early, but expects Tafa to roll through him. He compares it to the Jordan Wright-Silva fight.

Cody is confident in Tafa, citing Hunsucker's poor record and lack of durability. He notes that Hunsucker has never been past the first round and has been knocked out in all his losses. Tafa has shown he can go three rounds and has better striking and cardio. Cody expects Tafa to win by KO early, but he doesn't like the -330 price for betting.

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa to win, but advises caution at -310. He describes Tafa as having a Mark Hunt-like style with a big left hook and good leg kicks. Levi believes Tafa is more durable and has better hands than Hunsucker, who comes to brawl but is less skilled. He expects Tafa to get a first-round knockout, but notes that Tafa has underperformed in some fights. Levi sees Hunsucker as a gatekeeper brought in to get prospects back on track.

Jacob picks Justin Tafa but plays the over 1.5 rounds at +135. He thinks Hunsucker will pace himself to avoid getting finished early, and Tafa is patient, leading to a slow, boring striking affair. Jacob believes Tafa will outpoint Hunsucker. He also mentions that Hunsucker's history suggests a first-round finish, but he expects a different game plan from Hunsucker to prove he belongs in the UFC.

The host does not pick a winner but expects a first-round finish. He bet 2 units on under 1.5 rounds at -190, believing either fighter could get knocked out. He also mentions Hunsucker by KO at +1000 as a stab.

Paul is very confident in Tafa, calling Hunsucker a low-level fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Hunsucker's all first-round finishes (wins and losses) and poor competition. Tafa has better experience and cardio. Paul thinks Tafa will win by KO and mentions the under 1.5 rounds at -165 as a good bet.

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round KO. He notes Tafa has shown improvements in cardio and kicking, and he expects Tafa to chop at Hunsucker's calf like Tai Tuivasa did. He thinks Hunsucker has quick hands but Tafa's power and well-roundedness will prevail. He predicts a body kick followed by a counter shot for the KO.

Angelo picks Melissa Gatto with a half-unit bet at +190. He believes Gatto is a young up-and-comer with real potential, while Eubanks is a .500 fighter whose cardio issues may not be fully resolved. He notes that Gatto has good striking, can set up takedowns, and is aggressive on top. However, he cautions that if Eubanks' cardio holds up, she is a giant beast at 125 and could be a problem. He emphasizes that Gatto must stay on top and not pull guard.

Big Brady picks Sijara Eubanks by decision, citing her experience, BJJ black belt, and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He has concerns about Eubanks' age (36) and cardio if the fight extends. He notes Gatto's poor takedown defense and submission-over-position style, but acknowledges Gatto looked improved in her last fight. He says he may not bet Eubanks due to cardio worries.

Cody leans Eubanks due to her BJJ, size, and physicality. He notes her wrestling is solid for the division and she is aggressive. However, he worries about her cardio and weight cuts. Gatto is more wily and could pressure late. Cody says it's not a high-confidence play and wants to see weigh-ins.

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog. He likes Gatto's scrappiness, aggression, and improvement, especially her arm submissions. Levi is concerned that Eubanks's jiu-jitsu could neutralize Gatto's sub attempts, but he believes Gatto's tenacity and desire to prove herself after a layoff will carry her. He thinks Gatto can make it close if she doesn't get held down for two rounds, and sees value in the plus money.

Jacob is extremely confident in Melissa Gatto, calling it his lock of the week. He placed 5 units on her moneyline at +146, 4 units on her inside the distance (decision no action) at +170, and 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at +165. He believes Eubanks cannot bully Gatto, who has good striking and aggressive grappling. He compares it to the Miranda Maverick fight where the favorite was dominated. Jacob thinks Gatto will finish Eubanks, possibly by submission, and that the odds are moving fast.

The host picks Eubanks by decision, highlighting her superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He notes that Gatto plays off her back and Eubanks should be able to control her on top. He likes the decision prop at +150, as Eubanks is not a proactive finisher.

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that Eubanks is the rightful favorite but notes concerns about her cardio and weight cuts. He says to pay attention to weigh-ins. He does not commit to a pick.

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto as an upset winner, predicting a first-round armbar submission. He notes Gatto has good jiu-jitsu and submitted Carol Rosa with a kimura. He thinks Eubanks is getting older and may entertain the ground game too much. He sees Eubanks ending up on top but getting caught in an armbar from bottom.

Angelo picks Charles Jourdain to win and has a full unit on under 2.5 rounds at -110. He believes Jourdain's forward pressure, speed, and variety will overwhelm Ewell, who has cardio issues and doesn't use his reach advantage. Angelo notes that Jourdain has a 100% finish rate and expects him to get a finish after Ewell gasses. He also mentions that Ewell's reach advantage is meaningless because he doesn't use it.

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain, citing his power and finishing ability (100% finish rate, 6 knockdowns in UFC). He notes Ewell's tendency to slow down in fights and has been finished multiple times. He believes Jourdain's cardio is better and expects a late finish, likely by KO. He acknowledges the line is close but favors Jourdain's danger.

Cody is hesitant on Jourdain, noting his sloppy technique and tendency to get rocked. He acknowledges Jourdain's flashy moves but says he doesn't put together combinations. Ewell has a reach advantage and is making his featherweight debut. Cody thinks Jourdain might win but doesn't want to bet him at -200, calling it a pass.

Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Jourdain but is not confident. He notes Jourdain's talent, volume, and ability to knock down opponents, but also his tendency to let fights slip away, as against Julian Erosa. Levi is curious how Andre Ewell will look moving up to featherweight, as his weight cuts may have affected his durability. He acknowledges Ewell's reach and volume but has been burned betting on him before. Levi thinks Jourdain's youth and improvements give him the edge, but calls it a tough fight.

Jacob picks Charles Jourdain, citing his toughness and finishing ability. He recalls Jourdain's fight against Marcelo Rojo where Jourdain said he would finish him and did. Jacob believes Jourdain has better cardio and pressure than Ewell, and that Jourdain is a little better everywhere. He agrees with Angelo's under 2.5 rounds bet and thinks Jourdain will win by finish.

The host likes Ewell by decision, believing Ewell will use his jab and distance management to outpoint Jourdain. He notes that Jourdain is exciting but lacks process and can be stuck on the outside. He took a shot on Ewell moneyline at +168 and also the decision prop at +330.

Paul leans Ewell as a dog, citing Jourdain's poor performances and tendency to get hurt. He notes Ewell's reach advantage and durability. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' situation and thinks the plus money is worth a look.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain to win by TKO, predicting a third-round finish. He notes Jourdain's leg kicks and body kicks will break down Ewell, who has a history of breaking his forearm. He mentions Ewell's reach advantage but thinks Jourdain's pressure and kicks will be too much. He also notes Jourdain has an advantage on the ground if needed.

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.

Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.

Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.

Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.

The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.

Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.

Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.

Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.

Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.

Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.

Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.

The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.

Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.

Angelo picks Matt Sayles because he is more well-rounded, with solid power, footwork, and 81% takedown defense. He notes that Jordan Leavitt is one-dimensional with subpar striking and wrestling, and that his only path to victory is on the ground. However, Angelo is hesitant because Leavitt is dangerous in that one aspect, and he considers a prop bet on Leavitt inside the distance with decision no action.

Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt, citing Matt Sayles' long layoff, weight gain up to 250 lbs, and move up to lightweight as major concerns. He notes Leavitt's ground game is strong and expects him to get the fight to the mat and secure a submission. However, he admits he's not high on either fighter and plans to fade Leavitt in the future.

Cody leans Leavitt, thinking his grappling is far superior to Sayles's. He notes that Sayles has been off for two years, has poor grappling, and may struggle with weight cut. Cody thinks Leavitt can get the fight to the ground and submit Sayles, but he wants to see weigh-ins first.

Daniel Levi leans toward Matt Sayles despite concerns about his two-year layoff and weight ballooning. He believes Sayles has superior striking and firepower, and that Jordan Leavitt's grappling is his only path to victory. Levi notes that Leavitt's striking is terrible and he was exposed in his last fight. He thinks Sayles can survive early takedown attempts and piece Leavitt up on the feet, potentially getting a knockout. However, he is sketched out by the layoff and weight class change.

Jacob immediately put two units on Jordan Leavitt, believing he should be a 2-to-1 favorite. He cites Matt Sayles' two-year layoff due to ACL surgery and weight gain, and notes that Sayles throws many kicks which Leavitt can catch for takedowns. Jacob thinks Leavitt's open-mat takedowns and quickness will get the fight to the ground, where he has a submission advantage. He acknowledges Leavitt's last fight was embarrassing but expects him to get the job done.

The host does not make a clear moneyline pick, instead focusing on the under 2.5 rounds. He believes Matt Sayles could knock out Leavitt if he looks like his old self, or Leavitt could submit Sayles. He took a shot on the under 2.5 at -118, expecting violence either way.

Paul leans Sayles, citing Leavitt's poor stand-up and one-dimensional grappling. He thinks Sayles's striking is much better and he can keep the fight standing. However, Paul is concerned about Sayles's weight cut and two-year layoff, so he wants to see weigh-ins before betting.

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt due to a big grappling advantage over Matt Sayles. He notes that Sayles was easily submitted by Bryce Mitchell with a twister in the first round and looked lost on the ground. Leavitt has good grappling and should be able to take Sayles down and finish him. He predicts a late first-round arm triangle submission.