Fabrício Werdum vs Marcin Tybura

Marcin Tybura

14-10

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Nov 19, 2017 · Heavyweight · Completed

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura Next Fight

Age 48

Height 6' 4"

Reach 77"

Weight 231 lbs.

Stance Orthodox

UFC SD

Age 40

Height 6' 3"

Reach 78.0"

Weight 249 lbs.

Stance Orthodox

UFC SD

Career Averages - Fabrício Werdum

3.59 SLpM

52.0% Str. Acc.

2.64 SApM

55.0% Str. Def.

1.75 TD Avg

31.0% TD Acc.

31.0% TD Def.

1.2 Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Marcin Tybura

3.56 SLpM

48.0% Str. Acc.

3.26 SApM

55.0% Str. Def.

1.3 TD Avg

33.0% TD Acc.

70.0% TD Def.

0.1 Sub. Avg

Fabrício Werdum - Fight History

WIN vs Alexander Gustafsson

Submission (armbar) R1 2:30 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum	0	4 of 5	80%	4 of 5	1 of 2	50%	1	0	1:06
Alexander Gustafsson	0	11 of 19	57%	14 of 22	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:12

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Fabrício Werdum	0	4 of 5	80%	4 of 5	1 of 2	50%	1	0	1:06
1	Alexander Gustafsson	0	11 of 19	57%	14 of 22	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:12

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Fabrício Werdum	4 of 5	80%	1 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 3	3 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 1
Alexander Gustafsson	11 of 19	57%	9 of 15	2 of 4	0 of 0	4 of 12	0 of 0	7 of 7

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Fabrício Werdum	4 of 5	80%	1 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 3	3 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Alexander Gustafsson	11 of 19	57%	9 of 15	2 of 4	0 of 0	4 of 12	0 of 0	7 of 7

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Alexander Gustafsson

Big Brady picks Gustafsson based on better cardio, speed, and striking advantage. He is concerned about Werdum's size and potential takedowns, but notes Gustafsson has good takedown defense. He calls the fight weird and says the line is too wide to parlay, predicting a decision win for Gustafsson.

Gustafsson by decision

"I think mustafson is going to win this fight based off of you know he's going to have the better cardio he's going to be the faster fighter"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Fabrício Werdum

Daniel is confident in Werdum as a plus-270 underdog. He argues the line is off because Gustafsson looked poor in his last two fights and retired after the Anthony Smith loss. He believes Werdum's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, especially if the fight gets dirty and grimy. He notes Werdum had a full camp this time unlike his last fight.

plus 270 underdog, dog or pass fight

"i think this line is off man... where doom should not be plus 270 if you got in on that plus 300 i think that's the way to go... i'm going word with what we're doing for the upset i …"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Gustafsson

Gustafsson has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but there are too many question marks about his mental state after retirement and his layoff. Werdum looked poor against Oleynik and is 42. The under 2.5 rounds is attractive, but the moneyline is a pass due to uncertainty.

Under 2.5 rounds (-125)

"i like assassin here not enough to parlay him or bet him to be honest"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)

Alexander Gustafsson

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Gustafsson to win by TKO, despite concerns about Gustafsson looking overweight and happy in interviews. He believes Gustafsson's speed and reach advantage will be too much for Werdum, who looked deflated after his USADA suspension. He predicts an early TKO.

TKO early

"I think Gustiffson wins brutally by TKO."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Aleksei Oleinik

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik	0	94 of 183	51%	149 of 241	0 of 0	---	0	1	3:53
Fabrício Werdum	0	53 of 83	63%	70 of 101	3 of 7	42%	1	1	3:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Aleksei Oleinik	54 of 94	57%	71 of 112	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:31
1	Fabrício Werdum	25 of 37	67%	28 of 40	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:07
2	Aleksei Oleinik	26 of 63	41%	40 of 77	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:56
2	Fabrício Werdum	24 of 38	63%	29 of 43	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:19
3	Aleksei Oleinik	14 of 26	53%	38 of 52	0 of 0	---	0	1	1:26
3	Fabrício Werdum	4 of 8	50%	13 of 18	2 of 3	66%	1	1	2:29

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aleksei Oleinik	94 of 183	51%	79 of 167	10 of 10	5 of 6	72 of 149	22 of 33	0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum	53 of 83	63%	27 of 52	16 of 21	10 of 10	34 of 60	16 of 20	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aleksei Oleinik	54 of 94	57%	47 of 86	5 of 5	2 of 3	39 of 76	15 of 18	0 of 0
1	Fabrício Werdum	25 of 37	67%	14 of 24	7 of 9	4 of 4	17 of 26	8 of 11	0 of 0
2	Aleksei Oleinik	26 of 63	41%	21 of 58	3 of 3	2 of 2	22 of 53	4 of 10	0 of 0
2	Fabrício Werdum	24 of 38	63%	12 of 23	7 of 10	5 of 5	15 of 29	6 of 6	3 of 3
3	Aleksei Oleinik	14 of 26	53%	11 of 23	2 of 2	1 of 1	11 of 20	3 of 5	0 of 1
3	Fabrício Werdum	4 of 8	50%	1 of 5	2 of 2	1 of 1	2 of 5	2 of 3	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)

Fabrício Werdum

Big Brady picks Fabricio Werdum, citing a favorable stylistic matchup due to Werdum's superior submission game and Oleinik's poor ground game. He expects Werdum to take Oleinik down early and finish with ground and pound or submission, likely in the first round. He notes the line at minus 320 is steep but believes it's a good matchup.

Werdum by first round TKO/submission; fight ends inside first round

"I like Verdoom here. Um, due to the fact that I think it's a good, uh, stylistic match up for him."

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Fabrício Werdum

Daniel Levi picks Fabricio Werdum, stating he is the better striker and has the ground game to handle Oleinik's submissions. He notes Oleinik is reckless and makes mistakes, and that Werdum's improved striking and Thai clinch will be key. Levi expects Werdum to capitalize on Oleinik's errors and win inside the distance.

Werdum inside the distance

"I'm actually gonna go with Fabricio Vacaville or doom here to win this fight inside the distance"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Fabrício Werdum

Matt picks Werdum but thinks the -300 line is too wide due to Werdum's long layoff and age. He believes Werdum has the advantage on the feet and can finish Oleinik in the second round, but he is hesitant to bet at the current price. He would consider a bet if the line drops to -250.

Werdum by second-round TKO, fight doesn't go to decision (-250)

"I'm gonna pick over doom to win here but that line is a little bit too wide for me"

MMA Lock of the Night

LOSS vs Alexander Volkov

KO (punches) R4 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Mar 17, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Volkov	0	48 of 88	54%	83 of 130	3 of 9	33%	0	2	6:40
Fabrício Werdum	1	48 of 90	53%	96 of 144	2 of 2	100%	0	0	1:47

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Alexander Volkov	0	20 of 37	54%	37 of 56	2 of 2	100%	0	3:50
1	Fabrício Werdum	0	15 of 28	53%	42 of 59	1 of 1	100%	0	0:06
2	Alexander Volkov	0	14 of 24	58%	31 of 46	1 of 2	50%	0	2:26
2	Fabrício Werdum	0	3 of 9	33%	20 of 27	0 of 0	---	0	0:08
3	Alexander Volkov	0	10 of 15	66%	10 of 15	0 of 4	0%	2	0:24
3	Fabrício Werdum	0	13 of 32	40%	13 of 32	1 of 1	100%	0	0:45
4	Alexander Volkov	0	4 of 12	33%	5 of 13	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
4	Fabrício Werdum	1	17 of 21	80%	21 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:48

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Volkov	48 of 88	54%	30 of 66	12 of 14	6 of 8	22 of 41	1 of 2	25 of 45
Fabrício Werdum	48 of 90	53%	37 of 75	8 of 11	3 of 4	32 of 71	3 of 5	13 of 14

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Volkov	20 of 37	54%	17 of 33	2 of 3	1 of 1	4 of 5	0 of 0	16 of 32
1	Fabrício Werdum	15 of 28	53%	10 of 23	4 of 4	1 of 1	8 of 19	2 of 4	5 of 5
2	Alexander Volkov	14 of 24	58%	6 of 14	6 of 6	2 of 4	5 of 10	1 of 2	8 of 12
2	Fabrício Werdum	3 of 9	33%	2 of 6	0 of 1	1 of 2	2 of 8	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Alexander Volkov	10 of 15	66%	5 of 9	3 of 4	2 of 2	9 of 14	0 of 0	1 of 1
3	Fabrício Werdum	13 of 32	40%	10 of 27	2 of 4	1 of 1	11 of 30	0 of 0	2 of 2
4	Alexander Volkov	4 of 12	33%	2 of 10	1 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Fabrício Werdum	17 of 21	80%	15 of 19	2 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 14	0 of 0	6 of 7

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov

Round 1
English referee Marc Goddard will oversee tonight's heavyweight main event, scheduled for five rounds. Straight out of the gate, Werdum comes flying at Volkov with a jumping side-kick that doesn't even come close and leaves the Russian shrugging. Werdum soon changes levels, however, and it's only a matter of seconds before Volkov finds himself on the canvas at the base of the fence. Werdum makes things uncomfortable for "Drago" with a can opener, then releases to land a couple right hands as he works from Volkov's closed guard. Volkov opens his guard to try and stand, but Werdum keeps him under control on the ground. Werdum stands to get some more leverage on his punches, slamming Volkov with three or four solid right hands before kneeling again. Volkov gets his left arm up to block Werdum's next wave of ground-and-pound, now with two minutes remaining in round one. Volkov jumps back to his feet with 90 seconds left, and he immediately punishes Werdum with an uppercut, now a clinch knee, now punches to the body. Werdum eats the strikes well, then catches Volkov coming forward with a straight left hand. Volkov trips Werdum to the floor but doesn't want to come down and play in the BJJ wiz's guard. Werdum throws a jumping knee and drops to his back, trying to lure Volkov to the ground. Instead, referee Goddard orders Werdum back to his feet, and "Vai Cavalo" simply trips Volkov to the ground instead.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum

Round 2
Volkov blocks a takedown attempt from Werdum and pushes the Brazilian against the fence, landing an uppercut to the body of the former champion. Werdum reverses to the outside but can't hold the massive Russian in place, and now the big men come back to the middle of the cage. Werdum grabs for a single-leg but gets underhooked and pushed away by the rangy Volkov. "Drago" catches a kick and chops out Werdum's lead leg, then tells him to stand back up. Werdum gets up and is met by a short left hand, but his next single-leg attempt yields an easy takedown. Now it's Werdum working from Volkov's closed guard with two minutes on the clock. Again, Werdum uses a can opener to tee up Volkov's head for some ground-and-pound. Werdum comes over the top with a couple good elbows, but Volkov is doing well to tie up and negate the space. Werdum gets to half guard and leans across Volkov's body to try a kimura, but he can't get it before the horn. One of Werdum's elbows has opened up a nasty cut on the forehead of Volkov, who returns to his corner at the end of the round with his forehead covered in blood.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum

Round 3
Volkov stings Werdum with a plunging right hand, forcing the Brazilian to shoot for a takedown. Volkov stuffs the shot and comes out on top, but "Vai Cavalo" reverses immediately and takes top position. Volkov works back to his feet quickly, then has to fend off Werdum as the ex-champ tries to pull guard. Referee Goddard appears to issue a warning to Volkov for grabbing the inside of Werdum's gloves. Werdum is sporting a significant cut and mouse underneath his right eye, and Volkov is only making things worse with his punches. Two minutes remain in round two as Werdum shoots, then pulls guard. Volkov tries to sit on top of Werdum and possibly try and armbar, but Werdum slickly slips out and tries to take the Russian's back. Volkov peels Werdum off before he can establish back-mount, and the big men come back to their feet. Volkov looks to be taking charge of this fight, particularly on the feet, where's marching Werdum around the cage with jabs and kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Volkov

Round 4
Werdum pulls guard and tries to take Volkov's back in the ensuing scramble. Instead, Volkov sets up in Werdum's closed guard, where Werdum grabs hold of the Russian's wrists. "Drago" pulls his hands back and socks Werdum in the face as referee Goddard calls for action on the ground. With 3:40 on the clock, Volkov stands and asks Werdum to do the same. Werdum gets up and starts swinging wildly; Volkov makes him pay with a few well-placed uppercuts that put the Brazilian on rubber legs. Werdum hits the ground near the fence, dazed, and Volkov finishes the job with a pair of punches that put "Vai Cavalo" out cold. After dropping the first few rounds, Alexander Volkov storms back to knock out former UFC heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum in the fourth round.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Fabricio Werdum via KO (Punches) R4 1:38

WIN vs Marcin Tybura

Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Nov 19, 2017

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum	0	155 of 265	58%	179 of 290	1 of 7	14%	0	0	4:01
Marcin Tybura	0	127 of 257	49%	137 of 269	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:24

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Fabrício Werdum	20 of 41	48%	21 of 43	0 of 4	0%	1:02
1	Marcin Tybura	17 of 37	45%	17 of 38	0 of 0	---	0:17
2	Fabrício Werdum	32 of 54	59%	32 of 54	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Marcin Tybura	28 of 50	56%	31 of 53	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Fabrício Werdum	45 of 62	72%	46 of 63	0 of 1	0%	0:28
3	Marcin Tybura	26 of 49	53%	28 of 51	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Fabrício Werdum	20 of 35	57%	42 of 57	1 of 2	50%	2:31
4	Marcin Tybura	14 of 27	51%	18 of 32	1 of 1	100%	0:07
5	Fabrício Werdum	38 of 73	52%	38 of 73	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Marcin Tybura	42 of 94	44%	43 of 95	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Fabrício Werdum	155 of 265	58%	104 of 209	32 of 35	19 of 21	137 of 239	15 of 23	3 of 3
Marcin Tybura	127 of 257	49%	83 of 202	13 of 20	31 of 35	118 of 242	8 of 14	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Fabrício Werdum	20 of 41	48%	13 of 33	4 of 5	3 of 3	20 of 38	0 of 3	0 of 0
1	Marcin Tybura	17 of 37	45%	8 of 25	3 of 4	6 of 8	16 of 36	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Fabrício Werdum	32 of 54	59%	19 of 41	8 of 8	5 of 5	30 of 52	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Marcin Tybura	28 of 50	56%	17 of 36	4 of 7	7 of 7	25 of 44	3 of 6	0 of 0
3	Fabrício Werdum	45 of 62	72%	31 of 46	11 of 12	3 of 4	39 of 53	6 of 9	0 of 0
3	Marcin Tybura	26 of 49	53%	16 of 36	3 of 4	7 of 9	24 of 45	2 of 4	0 of 0
4	Fabrício Werdum	20 of 35	57%	15 of 29	2 of 2	3 of 4	12 of 25	5 of 7	3 of 3
4	Marcin Tybura	14 of 27	51%	9 of 21	1 of 2	4 of 4	12 of 24	1 of 2	1 of 1
5	Fabrício Werdum	38 of 73	52%	26 of 60	7 of 8	5 of 5	36 of 71	2 of 2	0 of 0
5	Marcin Tybura	42 of 94	44%	33 of 84	2 of 3	7 of 7	41 of 93	1 of 1	0 of 0

WIN vs Walt Harris

Submission (armbar) R1 1:05 · UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Oct 07, 2017

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum	0	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	1 of 1	100%	1	0	0:31
Walt Harris	0	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Fabrício Werdum	0	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	1 of 1	100%	1	0	0:31
1	Walt Harris	0	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Fabrício Werdum	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
Walt Harris	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Fabrício Werdum	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Walt Harris	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0

LOSS vs Alistair Overeem

Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · Jul 08, 2017

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alistair Overeem	1	49 of 115	42%	107 of 176	1 of 3	33%	0	0	2:39
Fabrício Werdum	0	21 of 38	55%	29 of 46	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Alistair Overeem	0	12 of 30	40%	12 of 30	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Fabrício Werdum	0	5 of 10	50%	6 of 11	0 of 0	---	0:10
2	Alistair Overeem	0	13 of 39	33%	23 of 49	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Fabrício Werdum	0	10 of 16	62%	16 of 22	0 of 0	---	0:56
3	Alistair Overeem	1	24 of 46	52%	72 of 97	1 of 1	100%	2:39
3	Fabrício Werdum	0	6 of 12	50%	7 of 13	0 of 0	---	0:14

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alistair Overeem	49 of 115	42%	28 of 84	9 of 17	12 of 14	37 of 94	5 of 11	7 of 10
Fabrício Werdum	21 of 38	55%	15 of 32	5 of 5	1 of 1	18 of 35	3 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alistair Overeem	12 of 30	40%	2 of 16	1 of 5	9 of 9	12 of 30	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Fabrício Werdum	5 of 10	50%	3 of 8	1 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 9	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Alistair Overeem	13 of 39	33%	6 of 28	4 of 6	3 of 5	12 of 35	1 of 3	0 of 1
2	Fabrício Werdum	10 of 16	62%	6 of 12	4 of 4	0 of 0	9 of 15	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Alistair Overeem	24 of 46	52%	20 of 40	4 of 6	0 of 0	13 of 29	4 of 8	7 of 9
3	Fabrício Werdum	6 of 12	50%	6 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0	5 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0

WIN vs Travis Browne

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Sep 10, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum	1	84 of 142	59%	107 of 166	0 of 3	0%	1	0	1:30
Travis Browne	0	37 of 143	25%	38 of 144	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:14

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Fabrício Werdum	1	37 of 59	62%	60 of 83	0 of 1	0%	1	1:30
1	Travis Browne	0	12 of 30	40%	12 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0:03
2	Fabrício Werdum	0	19 of 39	48%	19 of 39	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Travis Browne	0	11 of 42	26%	12 of 43	0 of 0	---	0	0:10
3	Fabrício Werdum	0	28 of 44	63%	28 of 44	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
3	Travis Browne	0	14 of 71	19%	14 of 71	0 of 0	---	0	0:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Fabrício Werdum	84 of 142	59%	41 of 91	24 of 32	19 of 19	66 of 123	10 of 10	8 of 9
Travis Browne	37 of 143	25%	27 of 123	4 of 11	6 of 9	35 of 140	2 of 2	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Fabrício Werdum	37 of 59	62%	22 of 39	8 of 13	7 of 7	21 of 42	8 of 8	8 of 9
1	Travis Browne	12 of 30	40%	9 of 27	2 of 2	1 of 1	10 of 28	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Fabrício Werdum	19 of 39	48%	7 of 25	8 of 10	4 of 4	19 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Travis Browne	11 of 42	26%	6 of 34	1 of 3	4 of 5	11 of 41	0 of 0	0 of 1
3	Fabrício Werdum	28 of 44	63%	12 of 27	8 of 9	8 of 8	26 of 42	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Travis Browne	14 of 71	19%	12 of 62	1 of 6	1 of 3	14 of 71	0 of 0	0 of 0

LOSS vs Stipe Miocic

KO (punch) R1 2:47 · UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic · May 14, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Stipe Miocic	0	15 of 33	45%	15 of 33	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Fabrício Werdum	1	20 of 31	64%	20 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Stipe Miocic	0	15 of 33	45%	15 of 33	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
1	Fabrício Werdum	1	20 of 31	64%	20 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Stipe Miocic	15 of 33	45%	5 of 20	4 of 5	6 of 8	15 of 33	0 of 0	0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum	20 of 31	64%	10 of 21	1 of 1	9 of 9	16 of 27	1 of 1	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Stipe Miocic	15 of 33	45%	5 of 20	4 of 5	6 of 8	15 of 33	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Fabrício Werdum	20 of 31	64%	10 of 21	1 of 1	9 of 9	16 of 27	1 of 1	3 of 3

View all 18 fights

Marcin Tybura - Fight History

LOSS vs Tyrell Fortune

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marcin Tybura	0	47 of 110	42%	85 of 153	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:41
Tyrell Fortune	0	30 of 59	50%	49 of 81	3 of 5	60%	0	0	5:07

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Marcin Tybura	8 of 22	36%	13 of 28	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Tyrell Fortune	9 of 15	60%	18 of 26	1 of 2	50%	3:03
2	Marcin Tybura	19 of 50	38%	21 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Tyrell Fortune	13 of 26	50%	13 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Marcin Tybura	20 of 38	52%	51 of 73	0 of 1	0%	0:41
3	Tyrell Fortune	8 of 18	44%	18 of 29	2 of 3	66%	2:04

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marcin Tybura	47 of 110	42%	22 of 77	20 of 27	5 of 6	36 of 96	11 of 14	0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune	30 of 59	50%	24 of 53	6 of 6	0 of 0	18 of 43	6 of 6	6 of 10

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marcin Tybura	8 of 22	36%	5 of 16	2 of 4	1 of 2	4 of 17	4 of 5	0 of 0
1	Tyrell Fortune	9 of 15	60%	8 of 14	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 4	2 of 2	5 of 9
2	Marcin Tybura	19 of 50	38%	8 of 35	7 of 11	4 of 4	17 of 47	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Tyrell Fortune	13 of 26	50%	11 of 24	2 of 2	0 of 0	12 of 25	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Marcin Tybura	20 of 38	52%	9 of 26	11 of 12	0 of 0	15 of 32	5 of 6	0 of 0
3	Tyrell Fortune	8 of 18	44%	5 of 15	3 of 3	0 of 0	4 of 14	3 of 3	1 of 1

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Tyrell Fortune

Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.

Win inside distance decision no action

"Tyrell's going to be the pick. If you're too scared to bet him, then grab him at win inside the distance decision no action."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.

Tybura by submission round 2

"I'm leaning Tybura here. ... I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.

"It's going to be the Polish powerhouse, Marcin Tybura."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Tyrell Fortune

Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.

"I think this is right place, right time for Tyrell Fortune to at least get one UFC win under his belt against an established, serious name in Marcin Tybura."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Tyrell Fortune

The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.

decision

"I think we'll see Fortune having shored up those submission defense issues and I think that would lead to him grinding this fight out uh and having a successful UFC debut."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.

"I'm taking the dog in Tybura as well."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

decision

"I'm picking Martin Tyura to win this fight."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Ante Delija

KO R1 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marcin Tybura	0	4 of 9	44%	8 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:18
Ante Delija	1	13 of 28	46%	15 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:08

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Marcin Tybura	0	4 of 9	44%	8 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:18
1	Ante Delija	1	13 of 28	46%	15 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:08

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marcin Tybura	4 of 9	44%	1 of 5	3 of 4	0 of 0	2 of 7	2 of 2	0 of 0
Ante Delija	13 of 28	46%	13 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0	9 of 23	0 of 0	4 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marcin Tybura	4 of 9	44%	1 of 5	3 of 4	0 of 0	2 of 7	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Ante Delija	13 of 28	46%	13 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0	9 of 23	0 of 0	4 of 5

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Angelo reluctantly picks Marcin Tybura, citing his toughness, experience, and ability to grind out wins. He notes that the line has flipped with Delija now the favorite. He acknowledges Delija's power and takedowns but points out his age (35) and that he's from another organization, which the community often dismisses. He believes Tybura's durability and cagemanship will be key.

"I'm going to pick Marcen Tyora. I'm going to stick with that pick, but it's a reluctant pick."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ante Delija

Big Brady picks Ante Delija, citing his speed and power on the feet. He notes Tybura's chin has been cracked and he is almost 40. He sees Delia winning by knockout if he can stuff takedowns, but acknowledges Tybura's path via grappling. He predicts a knockout win.

Delija by knockout

"I'll say Delia, I'll say Dia by knockout, but I'm looking forward to it."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ante Delija

The host recalls their first meeting where Tybura won after Delija broke his leg. He thinks Delija can be successful in the UFC and will land more damaging shots, be more aggressive, mix in clinch and takedowns, eventually find a dominant position and get Tybura out of there via TKO.

TKO

"I think that will eventually lead to Dia finding a dominant position to rain down big shots and get Tyora out of there."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Ante Delija

The Guru picks Ante Delija, arguing that Tybura's 'fraud check' wins come against less experienced opponents, while Delija is a seasoned heavyweight with no clear holes. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall and believes his athleticism and footwork will be too much. He predicts a TKO finish in round two or three, possibly from leg kicks and in-close shots.

TKO finish

"I'm going to go with Ante Deia. I think he's a step above the guys that do get fraud checked by Tyura."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Mick Parkin

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marcin Tybura	0	61 of 155	39%	64 of 158	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:01
Mick Parkin	0	60 of 145	41%	102 of 192	1 of 1	100%	0	0	3:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Marcin Tybura	21 of 56	37%	21 of 56	1 of 1	100%	0:19
1	Mick Parkin	23 of 45	51%	24 of 46	0 of 0	---	0:19
2	Marcin Tybura	7 of 20	35%	10 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:17
2	Mick Parkin	15 of 38	39%	41 of 69	1 of 1	100%	3:24
3	Marcin Tybura	33 of 79	41%	33 of 79	0 of 1	0%	0:25
3	Mick Parkin	22 of 62	35%	37 of 77	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marcin Tybura	61 of 155	39%	28 of 110	29 of 40	4 of 5	60 of 151	1 of 4	0 of 0
Mick Parkin	60 of 145	41%	47 of 130	1 of 2	12 of 13	49 of 118	2 of 2	9 of 25

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marcin Tybura	21 of 56	37%	4 of 34	15 of 20	2 of 2	21 of 56	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Mick Parkin	23 of 45	51%	13 of 34	1 of 1	9 of 10	22 of 44	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Marcin Tybura	7 of 20	35%	4 of 15	3 of 5	0 of 0	7 of 19	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Mick Parkin	15 of 38	39%	15 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0	5 of 12	1 of 1	9 of 25
3	Marcin Tybura	33 of 79	41%	20 of 61	11 of 15	2 of 3	32 of 76	1 of 3	0 of 0
3	Mick Parkin	22 of 62	35%	19 of 58	0 of 1	3 of 3	22 of 62	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

"I'm going to go with my gut... and I'm picking Mick Parkin"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

Tybura by decision

"I'm going to take the underdog here and Marchin tabber to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Mick Parkin

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

finish late in the fight or decision

"I think Parkin's athletic advantages here from his striking advantage to even some grappling that people have yet to see will be too much for the aging Tyboro to deal with."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Mick Parkin

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

decision 29-28

"I'm going with Mick Parkin guys Mick Parkin's going to get this one done"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Jhonata Diniz

TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marcin Tybura	0	35 of 49	71%	153 of 187	1 of 3	33%	0	1	7:14
Jhonata Diniz	0	15 of 29	51%	27 of 44	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:36

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Marcin Tybura	3 of 5	60%	66 of 82	0 of 1	0%	1	3:57
1	Jhonata Diniz	7 of 14	50%	17 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:36
2	Marcin Tybura	32 of 44	72%	87 of 105	1 of 2	50%	0	3:17
2	Jhonata Diniz	8 of 15	53%	10 of 18	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marcin Tybura	35 of 49	71%	33 of 46	1 of 2	1 of 1	9 of 19	0 of 0	26 of 30
Jhonata Diniz	15 of 29	51%	13 of 27	1 of 1	1 of 1	8 of 18	1 of 1	6 of 10

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marcin Tybura	3 of 5	60%	2 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 3
1	Jhonata Diniz	7 of 14	50%	7 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	1 of 1	6 of 10
2	Marcin Tybura	32 of 44	72%	31 of 42	0 of 1	1 of 1	8 of 17	0 of 0	24 of 27
2	Jhonata Diniz	8 of 15	53%	6 of 13	1 of 1	1 of 1	8 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jhonata Diniz vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)

Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura

Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.

Angelo says he will bet on Tybura if he is an underdog, and mentions using the Discord for alerts.

"we're picking marcine he's old he's slow as hell the haircuts insane ... but he is a grinder that can get fights to the ground"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.

fight time under 9.75 minutes, under 1.5 rounds

"I do got a lean with tyur here I just think if he gets the fight down to the mat it's a wrap"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.

submission, round 1 (plus 800)

"I took Mar marching daura by submission and it just kind of comes down to like the Tai taiu iasa fight"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.

"Yeah, I think this is a good fight for marty and tibera. Yeah, agreed."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.

"I think I'm willing to roll the dice on the underdog here"

Half the Battle

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.

Marcin Tybura wins by KO/TKO (+525)

"I think Marine tybera is a thousand per gonna take down and grounded pound uh janat Den KN"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.

"I'm taking Charles Oar... I'm playing it tight now"

MMA Gambling Podcast

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)

Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.

submission

"I'm expecting Toro to Showcase his full MMA game here staying away from the Striking of Dennis getting this fight to the ground and eventually finding a submission opportunity"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.

"Ty bro is a play for me and again I'm glad it's early on the card because I may take a bath on this one"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.

KO/TKO in early rounds

"I'm going to go with janat denz... I think he's got the ability to pick up the takedown defense quite quickly... I can see janat denz getting a KO here"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.

Odds: Tybura opened +115, now -142; Diniz opened -129, now +127. Zane notes it's not hopeless for Diniz if he kicks Tybura's legs early.

"I this looks like I've done a type world win first and foremost, but if he gets caught cold i'm not going to be... No, it would not be a shock."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Serghei Spivac

Submission (armbar) R1 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Serghei Spivac	0	0 of 4	0%	9 of 18	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:43
Marcin Tybura	0	3 of 5	60%	8 of 11	1 of 1	100%	1	0	0:34

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Serghei Spivac	0	0 of 4	0%	9 of 18	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:43
1	Marcin Tybura	0	3 of 5	60%	8 of 11	1 of 1	100%	1	0	0:34

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Serghei Spivac	0 of 4	0%	0 of 2	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
Marcin Tybura	3 of 5	60%	2 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Serghei Spivac	0 of 4	0%	0 of 2	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Marcin Tybura	3 of 5	60%	2 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.

Likely no money on this fight; age difference a concern

"I think Tor wins here"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.

"I'm going to agree it's a dogger pass main event for me as well it's not like there's huge dog money on marcine Toro but you got a guy that won the previous matchup"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.

Tybura by decision; over 2.5 rounds (or over 3.5 rounds) at even money

"I still think he's the better overall fighter in this spot better Striker can compete in the wrestling in my opinion maybe the better pure BJJ specialist probably the better cardio so it's kind of surprising to see him as …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.

"I took some Plus 138 on Tuesday Cody cuz I just think tor's got better standup submission grappling may be an edge there speac really lays on the wrestling on a lot of people is he able to you know …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.

"I'm gonna go with Martin toura over Sergey spivac I don't think toura can be finished on the ground and their first fight toura one"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Tai Tuivasa

Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marcin Tybura	0	15 of 24	62%	18 of 27	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Tai Tuivasa	0	27 of 41	65%	73 of 96	1 of 4	25%	1	0	2:48

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Marcin Tybura	0	15 of 24	62%	18 of 27	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Tai Tuivasa	0	27 of 41	65%	73 of 96	1 of 4	25%	1	0	2:48

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marcin Tybura	15 of 24	62%	9 of 17	1 of 2	5 of 5	8 of 17	7 of 7	0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa	27 of 41	65%	23 of 34	4 of 7	0 of 0	8 of 20	0 of 0	19 of 21

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marcin Tybura	15 of 24	62%	9 of 17	1 of 2	5 of 5	8 of 17	7 of 7	0 of 0
1	Tai Tuivasa	27 of 41	65%	23 of 34	4 of 7	0 of 0	8 of 20	0 of 0	19 of 21

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)

Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.

watching line movement; hopes for better odds

"tybor is the underdog pick here I am going to watch the line movement a lot of these fights I'm watching the line movement"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.

by first round knockout

"Give me a taiu iasa first round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Tai Tuivasa

Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.

by KO

"I feel like I want to go Tai Tuivasa... I just got like a nagging suspicion that Tai's power is just too much for him he crumples him up early."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.

"I can see Ty knocking him out in round one for sure but I can also see Tor just weathering the storm and just coming in as the more reliable heavyweight..."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.

arm triangle choke

"I think Toro will come up short against the Tom Aspen of the world but we've seen him take some big shots from guys like Greg Hardy and Walt Harris as well as Ben Rothwell and he rolls well with …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Tai Tuivasa

Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.

by KO

"I'm picking Tai as well I think Tai by knockout... in those first seven and a half minutes or so he's if he does try to close distance he's going to be eating shots trying to do so."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.

round one or two KO

"I'm going to go with round two or one KO for tyu evasa... I think tuivasa is going to capitalize chopping that car early and then started to bring it upstairs."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Tom Aspinall

TKO (elbow and punches) R1 1:13 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tom Aspinall	1	13 of 18	72%	13 of 18	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
Marcin Tybura	0	4 of 15	26%	4 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Tom Aspinall	1	13 of 18	72%	13 of 18	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
1	Marcin Tybura	0	4 of 15	26%	4 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tom Aspinall	13 of 18	72%	12 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 10	0 of 0	6 of 8
Marcin Tybura	4 of 15	26%	2 of 13	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tom Aspinall	13 of 18	72%	12 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 10	0 of 0	6 of 8
1	Marcin Tybura	4 of 15	26%	2 of 13	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Tom Aspinall

Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.

suggested as parlay piece with Molly McCann

"I'm all in on Tom aspinall here I think he's a solid parlay piece"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Tom Aspinall

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.

first round knockout

"give me Tom aspinall Tom Aspen to win this fight by first round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.

small bet on Tybura moneyline at +380

"I took a little bit very very small bet of Marcin tibora plus 380. I'm prepared to look really really dumb"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Tom Aspinall

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.

Daniel says the price is 'absolutely terrible' and that laying -475 to -500 is a 'sucker bet'. He lines Aspinall closer to -400 and passes on betting.

"I do think Tom's gonna win this fight but I mean I think that laying minus 475 to minus 500 here is a sucker bet"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Tom Aspinall

James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.

Tom Aspinall wins in round two

"I think he probably finishes tybora in round two and that's my prediction of the fire I've got time in round two"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Tom Aspinall

The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds at -140/-150

"I think that early speed and power Advantage for Tom aspinel is going to be too much for tibura... I think it's going to end up with him getting his hand raised by a first round stoppage here"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Tom Aspinall

Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.

suggests live betting Tybura after round 1

"I would take Tom maskman all here don't know if I end up putting them on the top ticket an option"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.

finish in first round

"I'm going with asper now I think it's a very logical pick"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marcin Tybura	0	40 of 103	38%	61 of 133	1 of 1	100%	0	0	4:55
Blagoy Ivanov	0	34 of 113	30%	34 of 113	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Marcin Tybura	22 of 45	48%	22 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Blagoy Ivanov	12 of 41	29%	12 of 41	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Marcin Tybura	17 of 57	29%	17 of 57	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Blagoy Ivanov	22 of 72	30%	22 of 72	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Marcin Tybura	1 of 1	100%	22 of 31	1 of 1	100%	4:55
3	Blagoy Ivanov	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marcin Tybura	40 of 103	38%	12 of 70	19 of 24	9 of 9	39 of 102	0 of 0	1 of 1
Blagoy Ivanov	34 of 113	30%	24 of 98	10 of 15	0 of 0	34 of 112	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marcin Tybura	22 of 45	48%	5 of 26	10 of 12	7 of 7	22 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Blagoy Ivanov	12 of 41	29%	8 of 35	4 of 6	0 of 0	12 of 40	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Marcin Tybura	17 of 57	29%	7 of 44	9 of 12	1 of 1	17 of 57	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Blagoy Ivanov	22 of 72	30%	16 of 63	6 of 9	0 of 0	22 of 72	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Marcin Tybura	1 of 1	100%	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1
3	Blagoy Ivanov	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady calls this a messy fight and expects it to go to a greasy decision. He picks the underdog Ivanov because he is more durable and has never been finished, while Tybura has been finished multiple times. He is not confident and advises against betting.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision

"I'm gonna take even off to win a very greasy split decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Blagoy Ivanov

Cody picks Ivanov at plus money, calling it a close heavyweight fight. He believes Ivanov has a slight edge in technical boxing and volume. He notes both fighters are low-volume and durable, expecting a decision. He took Ivanov at +130 and thinks the fight is essentially 50-50, so he takes the underdog.

"I took the plus money at plus 130... I think he's got a maybe a slight Edge in uh in like technical boxing a slight Edge in volume"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Connor picks Marcin Tybura, expecting a split decision. He notes that Tybura is more proactive with kicks and combinations, and will likely be the one initiating clinch exchanges. However, he acknowledges Ivanov's durability and defensive wrestling, which could make the fight ugly. Connor is confident it will be a split decision but leans Tybura due to higher output.

split decision

"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Tybura, arguing that Ivanov has looked slow and predictable in recent fights. He notes Ivanov's poor cardio and lack of takedown attempts, while Tybura has good cardio and mobility for a heavyweight. He expects Tybura to outwork Ivanov, especially in the later rounds. He also likes the under on Tybura 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Tybura under 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)

"I went the other way I just can't get behind blah boy anymore... gotta go the other way here in marcine Tabor but middling heavyweights expect the worst"

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Marcin Tybura, agreeing that it will be a split decision. He notes that Tybura has better tools at range and is more likely to control the clinch. However, he warns that Ivanov's power and chin could cause an upset if Tybura gets hurt. Zane sees Tybura's improved composure as a key factor.

split decision

"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."

MMA Vivisection

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