vs
-800 +650
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Bryce Mitchell
2.27 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
1.6 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
3.24 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kron Gracie
2.95 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
5.73 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.35 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Bryce Mitchell
Moneyline
BetWay -800
KO/TKO
BetWay +700
Submission
BetWay +550
Decision
BetRivers -175
Kron Gracie
Moneyline
DraftKings +650
KO/TKO
BetMGM +4000
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
FanDuel +1500
Bryce Mitchell - Fight History
SCHED vs Santiago Luna
13
138 MMA Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

The host picks Bryce Mitchell but is hesitant, acknowledging that Luna is a solid striker and could win if the fight stays on the feet. However, he believes Mitchell's jiu-jitsu and chain wrestling will be the difference, as Luna's wrestling might not be enough to handle Mitchell's submission sequences. He notes that Mitchell has been preparing for this fight while Luna is on short notice, and that the step up in competition might be too big for Luna.

"I'm going to take Bryce Mitchell for now. I could switch on this."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Luna

AJ picks Luna by knockout, viewing him as a bad stylistic matchup for Mitchell. He believes Luna's wrestling base will neutralize Mitchell's takedowns, and Luna's superior striking power and speed will lead to a KO. AJ notes Mitchell's striking hasn't improved and Luna's recent 15-minute fight experience is a plus.

Luna by KO; under 2.5 rounds minus 180
"I think Santiago Luna is a bad matchup for Thug Nasty... I'm going Santiago Luna by knockout."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock pick date unknown
Santiago Luna

AJ picks Santiago Luna as his savage underdog lock of the week. He highlights Luna's youth (21), wrestling background, and superior boxing compared to Bryce Mitchell's mediocre standup. AJ believes Luna's takedown defense and athleticism will keep the fight standing, where Luna's power and speed will overwhelm Mitchell, especially at 135 where Mitchell's chin is untested. He predicts a knockout victory for Luna.

Santiago Luna by KO (implied), plus 120 underdog line mentioned
"Santiago Luna to take out Bryce Mitchell. I love the matchup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Santiago Luna

Angelo picks Santiago Luna despite the short notice, believing Luna is the more talented fighter with excellent wrestling, good striking, and solid grappling. He trusts Luna's ability to scramble and defend takedowns. However, he is worried about the short notice, which is why the bet isn't large. He bet on Luna at +155.

Bet at +155, short notice concern
"I actually bet on him at plus 155 here. Let's hopefully not be made out to look a fool."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He was surprised Mitchell isn't a bigger favorite and notes Luna's impressive takedown defense and wrestling background. He thinks Mitchell needs to take Luna down to win, but it may not be easy. He believes it's a levels fight and Luna is stepping up too soon.

by decision
"I'm going to go Bryce Mitchell here. I don't feel entirely great about it because Luna's going to have some paths."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell will likely take Santiago Luna down and grind out a decision, as he did against Dan Ige and Saygid. Luna has a knockout win over Quang Le but Mitchell's takedowns should neutralize him. Mitchell's chin is a concern, but he should avoid getting boomed.

decision win
"Give me Bryce by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Luna

Cody picks Luna, citing Mitchell's declining commitment, poor durability, and lack of high-level training. He notes Luna's wrestling background, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Mitchell is regressing and Luna is a live underdog, possibly winning by knockout.

Luna knockout at +450
"I think Luna is going to beat him. I think Luna's potentially going to knock him out. And like Luna knockout is like plus 450 and up in some spots."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Bryce Mitchell, echoing Zane's reasoning. He emphasizes that Mitchell is a dexterous fighter who adjusts well, as seen in the Said Nurmagomedov fight where he figured out how to pressure and trap him. Connor notes that Luna has potential but is too raw, and that Mitchell's ability to problem-solve will be the difference.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Mitchell is a dexterous fighter. That is the shocking thing about him. Honestly."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell is picked because his wrestling and grappling are superior to Santiago Luna's. Luna is a solid boxer but gassed in his last fight and is taking this on short notice. Mitchell's black belt and top pressure should allow him to control the fight, though his chin is a concern. The host expects a unanimous decision or late submission, as Luna may fade.

Bryce Mitchell wins by unanimous decision or later stage submission; expects line to drop to around -170
"I like Bryce Mitchell in this matchup. ... I think Bryce is able to stay safe here. I think he gets, you know, he works for the takedowns."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Mitchell's wrestling and top control are elite, and Luna took the fight on short notice. Luna may have success in the first round, but Mitchell will grind him down with takedowns and win a decision.

"I'm taking Bryce Mitchell to win this fight. Probably by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Luna

Luna is a special prospect with Greco-Roman wrestling background and fluid striking. He has superior striking and cardio compared to Mitchell, who is a liability on the feet. Luna should stuff takedowns and eventually knock Mitchell out in round 2 or 3. The line has moved from +150 to +120, indicating public agreement.

Luna by KO in round 2 or 3
"I believe this kid is a winner. I believe he is a future champion. I believe his striking is far superior to Bryce Mitchell."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Luna

Paul picks Luna, echoing Cody's points about Mitchell's disinterest and poor training setup. He highlights Luna's youth, speed, and wrestling, and notes Mitchell's recent performances show regression. He sees Luna as a live underdog with plus money.

"I'm on Luna as well. You mentioned the Senandov... I think Luna is live for plus money."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Zane picks Bryce Mitchell because he is a very adaptive and thoughtful fighter who figures out opponents as fights go on, and he has only lost to extreme athletic specimens like Ilia Topuria, Josh Emmett, and John Dodson. He notes that Santiago Luna is a solid athlete with good fundamentals but has only had eight fights and is too inexperienced for this step up. Zane expects Mitchell to adjust and find ways to catch Luna out, possibly via takedowns and pressure.

Luna opened at +210, currently +120; Mitchell opened at -250, currently -140. Zane notes the line movement may be due to people fading Mitchell because of his personality, but that doesn't affect his fighting ability.
"I just get the feeling that Luna is going to be very willing to Hang out and see what Mitchell brings to him and Mitchell will change things up often enough that he'll just End up starting to catch Luna …"
CANCEL vs Victor Henry
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 13 of 20 65% 39 of 51 3 of 9 33% 0 1 9:44
Said Nurmagomedov 1 20 of 32 62% 100 of 126 0 of 0 --- 1 2 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 21 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Said Nurmagomedov 1 17 of 25 68% 42 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 12 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:56
Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 5 20% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 11 0 of 3 0% 0 1 4:11
Said Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 2 100% 27 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 13 of 20 65% 3 of 6 7 of 11 3 of 3 5 of 11 8 of 9 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 20 of 32 62% 13 of 24 5 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 19 1 of 3 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 2 of 3 5 of 8 3 of 3 5 of 9 5 of 5 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 17 of 25 68% 11 of 19 4 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 9
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-125); Nurmagomedov (+105)

Round 1
Hoping the answer to his problems is a change in weight, the much-maligned Mitchell (17-3, 8-3 UFC) is shifting gears to 135 pounds in hopes of a new lease on life. He will not receive an easy challenge in the division that many suggest is the best in the sport, as he tangles with Nurmagomedov (18-4, 7-3 UFC). While of a different mold than many of the other men that share his name, this Russian presents danger on the feet as well as on the mat. Referee Jim Perdios will keep things on the up-and-up. There is no fist bump between the bantamweights.
Although Nurmagomedov offers, Mitchell ignores it and kicks him in the lead knee. When Mitchell kicks a second time, Nurmagomedov counters with one upside the head that lands cleanly. Nurmagomedov bounces off the wall to plant a left hand on the chin, circling on the outside and waiting for Mitchell to throw so he can counter with an overhand right. Mitchell ties up the Dagestan native with a body lock, and Nurmagomedov is able to bounce off his knees when they both hit the floor together. Mitchell remains tightly pressed to his opponent, kneeing him once in the stomach while he otherwise hangs on closely. Mitchell stalls out in this position other than offering the occasional knee, and fans loudly ask for the fighters to be split up.
Nurmagomedov takes matters into his own hands, breaking free and cracking Mitchell with a right hand. Mitchell has some swelling on his left cheek and a cut under his right eye, but it is a knee that blasts into his chin that does the real damage. Mitchell goes flying to his back, and Nurmagomedov slashes through his guard to drop down punctuating punches and devastating elbows. Mitchell tries to throw his legs up for a submission setup like a triangle choke, and Nurmagomedov is wise to it as he keeps working on Mitchells side. Mitchell wraps his right leg up and around the shoulder for a moment, but his omoplata shoulder lock setup falls apart before he can get anywhere. Mitchell defends himself well while on his back, staying active to dissuade Nurmagomedov from getting reckless. Nurmagomedov hammers down a single elbow before Mitchell explodes to his feet, where the American hunts for a body lock takedown of his own. He bullies Nurmagomedov to the wall, holding him there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
Mitchell rushes out of his corner to engage and start the second round, where it takes him less than 10 seconds to shoot for a takedown. Nurmagomedov defends with a guillotine choke, and Mitchell elevates him and trips him out to break out of the choke and establish top position. When Mitchell lands on top, he isolates Nurmagomedov’s left arm in search of a kimura. Mitchell hangs on as it could also turn into a straight armlock by the way he has the limb stretched, but Nurmagomedov does not appear remotely concerned as he knees Mitchell in the ribs while stuck flat on his back. Mitchell stays holding onto the limb, but he does not have it with both hands so Nurmagomedov raises his hand up to motion to Perdios that he should stand them up. Perdios does not take the bait, and Mitchell releases the grip and pursues an arm-triangle choke.
Nurmagomedov manages to wall-walk to not only get out of the sub but also reverse his position, and Mitchell is able to stand up as well while they are clinched. Mitchell digs a few shots to the body when exerting his weight on the Russian, and he sells out for a single and even rolls over to try to take Nurmagomedov’s back. Nurmagomedov turns to try to escape the back take, and slowly flips Mitchell over to get on top with 45 seconds left in the round. Nurmagomedov quickly advances to the side, and when he tries to take a dominant position. Mitchell uses the moment to fight to his feet and just avoids a knee. Nurmagomedov spins with a back elbow, and Mitchell times a picture-perfect double that puts Nurmagomedov on his back. Nurmagomedov looks to Perdios, who lets time expire as they are tied up in their position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 3
Mitchell kicks off the final round looks for a takedown. After a few efforts, he wrangles Nurmagomedov to put his back to the wall, but this is just a trap the Russian has set. Nurmagomedov latches onto a guillotine choke, and he uses it to flip Mitchell to his back and take full mount. Nurmagomedov is unable to complete it, so he lets it go and starts dropping down left hands. Mitchell scrambles to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back and gets a hook in. Mitchell keeps turning to defy the back take and puts the Russian flat on his back once more. Mitchell smothers his opponent, not otherwise attacking in terms of strikes or submissions, so that he can remain on top.
Mitchell holds on with an arm-triangle choke from the opposite side, and Nurmagomedov settles for kneeing him in the side a few times to little effect. Nurmagomedov is warned for putting his toes in the fence to pull himself to a more advantageous position. Nurmagomedov grabs the fence again with his fingers, and Perdios swats his hand and then foot out of the links. Nurmagomedov turns to surrender his back in an effort to stand, but Mitchell is on him like a dog with a bone and he wraps up a body triangle around the Dagestan native’s waist. Mitchell hangs on, and Nurmagomedov has his toes still hooked in the fence as Perdios has to smack his toes again to pull them out of it. They turn to an awkward position, and this 135-pound affair draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Said Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but with very low confidence (50.5%). He notes Mitchell's dominant wrestling and submission threat, but worries about his move to 135 lbs and his chin. Said Nurmagomedov has questionable takedown defense but a dangerous guillotine. Angelo will monitor the line and may flip his pick.

"I'm going to pick Bryce because of what I think is going to be a pretty healthy wrestling advantage. But I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, favoring his striking and submission threats. He worries about Bryce Mitchell's tendency to put his neck in bad spots when shooting takedowns, and notes Nurmagomedov has nasty front chokes. He believes Mitchell will struggle to hold Nurmagomedov down and predicts a second-round submission via front choke.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Nurmagamedov to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Said Nurmagomedov but admits he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Mitchell's drop to 135 feels desperate and that Said is a sharp striker with good wrestling, but also acknowledges that Said has a problem with gassing and Mitchell could pressure him. Connor's pick is more a vote against Mitchell's recent trajectory than a strong endorsement of Said.

"For the sake of the person in my live thread, I will pick Said, but I won't lie. I don't actually feel good about it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Said Nurmagomedov

Many think Mitchell should grind out Nurmagomedov, but it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov snatching up the neck and forcing the tap.

submission
"I think it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov eventually snatching up the neck and forcing the tap for Mitchell."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his size and strength advantage at bantamweight, and his ability to grapple tall to avoid guillotines. He notes Said Nurmagomedov's guillotine threat but believes Mitchell's physicality and grappling control will be the difference. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Mitchell.

"I'm going to go with Bryce Mitchell. ... I'm actually going to say that he gets this one done by decision. ... 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Zane picks Bryce Mitchell despite his recent losses, arguing that Said Nurmagomedov has a history of gassing and Mitchell's pressure and size could be decisive. He acknowledges the risk of Mitchell's weight cut to 135 and his recent confidence issues, but believes Mitchell's grappling and toughness give him a real chance against a fighter like Said who has struggled against persistent opponents.

"I really don't want to, but I think I'm going to pick Bryce Mitchell."
LOSS vs Jean Silva
Submission R2 3:52 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 36 of 64 56% 37 of 66 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:43
Jean Silva 1 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 22 of 34 64% 23 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:53
Jean Silva 0 9 of 29 31% 10 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:06
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 31 0 of 11 0% 0 0 0:50
Jean Silva 1 18 of 34 52% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 36 of 64 56% 7 of 25 8 of 18 21 of 21 35 of 61 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jean Silva 27 of 63 42% 11 of 44 13 of 15 3 of 4 23 of 56 3 of 5 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 22 of 34 64% 5 of 11 3 of 9 14 of 14 22 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jean Silva 9 of 29 31% 2 of 20 6 of 7 1 of 2 8 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 14 of 30 46% 2 of 14 5 of 9 7 of 7 13 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jean Silva 18 of 34 52% 9 of 24 7 of 8 2 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 4 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-278), Mitchell (+225)

Round 1
What started as an interesting stylistic matchup turned into something far deeper and darker thanks to the idiocy of
Hitler-praising, Holocaust-denying
Mitchell (17-2, 8-2 UFC). We won’t sugarcoat this one, as it does not deserve a “both sides” treatment. The Fighting Nerds talent Silva (15-2, 4-0 UFC) wants to crush Mitchell for his absurd comments that range from
embracing the flat earth conspiracy theory
to
suggesting that he would change his nickname to “White Power” if he could
. The sides have been chosen and the lines have been drawn, so it is just a matter of time until referee Mike Beltran clocks the featherweights in. Unsurprisingly, there is no touch of gloves, even though Silva offered. Mitchell walks Silva down, and Silva motions that he attack him. Mitchell does not bite on the opportunity, instead backing off to toss out kicks to the lead leg and side. Combating chants ring through the building, with Silva’s louder as he buzzes the hair with a spinning wheel kick. Mitchell chops at the front leg with a kick, and Silva stands and stares at him. Silva looks to catch a kick, and he pump-fakes level changes. Mitchell reaches the target with a front kick and a low kick, and Silva’s body kick response is louder. Mitchell puts a side kick through the guard, and he hand-fights to back off and not take a strike coming back his direction. Mitchell uses his push kick on the chest to keep Silva from him, and Silva grabs his foot and tosses it aside. Silva fails on a jumping switch kick, and he comes up short on a pair of punches. Mitchell scores a low kick and absorbs a right hand, and he continues to batter the front leg of the Brazilian. A right hand from Silva zips past the ear, and he smiles at his opponent when Mitchell flings a spinning back fist at him. Silva comfortably sprawls when Mitchell shoots on him, and he pushes off the back of the head to stand. Mitchell follows suit, circling away while Silva comes towards him. Two left hands fly out from “Thug Nasty,” followed by a leg kick and a solid right hand. Silva smiles and points at him, jumping to kick him in the side. Silva looks away and darts forward, and he wings a wheel kick that catches Mitchell on the side of the head. Mitchell shoots for a takedown, and Silva snatches up a guillotine choke and grips it with all his might. Mitchel sits up, but Silva adjusts the grip to keep the choke tight. Mitchell wriggles to take some pressure off of his neck, and he works out of the submission to stand back up. Silva answers with a quick ninja choke when Mitchell leans over for a takedown, and Silva chases him around until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva asks Mitchell to touch gloves with him, and once more, the Arkansas native refuses. Silva walks him down, talking to him, and he checks a low kick. Silva connects with a left and then a right, flooring “Thug Nasty” and backing off to force the grappler to stand. Silva points at him and blasts him in the ribs with a kick, and he fakes a spin kick to draw out a reaction. Mitchell shoots in for a double, and Silva defends by bouncing off the cage and using a guillotine grip on the side. Mitchell pulls guard to take the fight to the floor by any means, and Silva is having none of it and stands back up. Silva frees himself from the grip and no-sells a low kick, continuing to pressure “Thug Nasty” and showboat. Silva looks away and punches, ducking out of the way of a knee and spinning with an elbow that skims the temple. “Lord” nails Mitchell with a step-in elbow, and he steps back to absorb a few body shots. Mitchell shoots, and Silva turns him about and pushes off. Mitchell ducks and dips to set up a takedown, and Silva tosses it aside and misses an uppercut by a whisker. Silva plants the ball of his foot on Mitchell’s chin, and he is met with a low kick. Silva scores a left hand, a jumping kick to the body and another left up top. Silva goes to the body and head, and he shakes off a takedown attempt and wraps up a ninja choke in the blink of an eye. Mitchell goes for a single to fight it off, and he rolls over to his side but is in big trouble. Silva’s vice-like squeeze is so daunting that Mitchell frantically taps out, and before Silva lets the grip go, Mitchell goes to sleep. Silva releases the sub and leaps to the top of the cage to motion to the President, who is less-than-enthused clapping for the Brazilian over the MAGA American. He then climbs off the top and interlocks his limbs on the fence, barking loudly as if he was about to be let off the leash. The Fighting Nerds quickly sport their trademark black-rimmed glasses, handing commentator Joe Rogan a pair for the interview. A rare occurrence, Rogan lets Silva have the microphone for a second, who thanks Miami and barks again. He then suggests that Mitchell seek professional help because he is “not right in the head.” The barking continues, with Silva on top of the world after his thrilling victory over a bitter, reviled rival. Meanwhile, the de facto technical submission could not have happened to a nicer guy.

The Official Result
Jean Silva def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:52 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jean Silva

Connor picks Silva, agreeing with Zane that Silva's patient, counter-striking style and knockout power will exploit Mitchell's tendency to make mistakes early. He notes that Mitchell is a crafty grappler who learns in fights, but Silva is adept at waiting for one opening and capitalizing. Connor acknowledges Mitchell could win if he gets takedowns and controls the ground, but Silva's ability to pick out weaknesses without giving much information makes him the favorite.

"I am going to pick him. Yeah. I think he's going to knock Bryce out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jean Silva

Daniel Levi praises Jean Silva for destroying Bryce Mitchell, highlighting Silva's physicality, creativity, and willingness to try different techniques. He loved the ninja choke submission and believes Silva can go all the way to the top, citing his striking creativity, athleticism, and submission game.

"Jean Silva destroyed Bryce Mitchell as promised by Jean Silva. Shout out to him, man. And god, he's so fun to watch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jean Silva

Lucrative James picks Jean Silva to win, citing his superior striking, angles, and timing. He believes Silva's athleticism and cardio will allow him to get back to his feet if taken down. He thinks Silva will find his reads and land a fight-ending shot, possibly an uppercut or knee, as the fight progresses. He acknowledges Mitchell's grappling threat but doubts he can submit Silva. He expects Silva to win inside the distance, possibly by cutting Mitchell open.

He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, possibly via KO/TKO.
"I see Gene Silva getting this one done inside the distance. I think his hype continues to be built."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jean Silva

Zane picks Silva, believing Silva's patient, counter-striking style and knockout power will exploit Mitchell's tendency to make mistakes early. He notes that Mitchell is a crafty grappler who learns in fights, but Silva is adept at waiting for one opening and capitalizing. Zane acknowledges Mitchell could win if he gets takedowns and controls the ground, but Silva's ability to pick out weaknesses without giving much information makes him the favorite.

"I am going to pick him. Yeah. I think he's going to knock Bryce out."
WIN vs Kron Gracie
KO (slam and elbows) R3 0:39 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 26 of 36 72% 147 of 177 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:33
Kron Gracie 0 6 of 31 19% 90 of 118 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 6 of 8 75% 64 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Kron Gracie 0 2 of 7 28% 41 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 70 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
Kron Gracie 0 1 of 18 5% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kron Gracie 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 26 of 36 72% 14 of 23 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 26 5 of 5 4 of 5
Kron Gracie 6 of 31 19% 4 of 25 1 of 3 1 of 3 5 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 3 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 2
Kron Gracie 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 6 of 9 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 1 of 18 5% 1 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 7 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kron Gracie 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kron Gracie vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-700), Gracie (+500)

Round 1
With the previous pairing on paper one between two fearless strikers, the match that follows is a potential grappler’s delight. Mitchell (16-2, 7-2 UFC) has never landed a knockout or even scored an injury or doctor stoppage, while Gracie (5-2, 1-2 UFC) has only won by submission. It could play out in a number of ways, and referee Keith Peterson will keep it on the up-and-up while making certain there will be no nonsense allowed. The 145ers have no plan on touching gloves, and instead Mitchell hops forward to attack with a front kick. Both men kick low at the same time, and Gracie works his way forward and misses with a right hook. Mitchell kicks the front leg and drives a knee to the body when Gracie works his way towards him, and Gracie jumps into Mitchell’s arms and drags him down to the mat without having a submission set up. Mitchell lowers himself unafraid into half guard, and Gracie closes his guard around his waist. Mitchell keeps his hand covering Gracie’s mouth, and the two otherwise stall one another out while horizontal. Mitchell stacks Gracie up but his arms are stuck, and all he can attack with is short left hands to the ribs. The audience is not impressed by the relative stalemate, with Mitchell making no reckless moves while Gracie is not able to set anything up. Mitchell gets off a few punches when seeing openings, and he ignores when Gracie throws his legs up for a high guard. Mitchell drops down a single elbow, and he softens up the midsection with a couple additional punches to stay busy enough to remain in this position. Gracie raps his hand on the back of Mitchell’s head a few times with meaningless rabbit punches, and Mitchell remains smothering on top until the tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
The second round opens with Mitchell jabbing with the ball of his foot, and he reaches over the guard with a right hand. Gracie steels himself and rocks Mitchell with a left hand, and Mitchell shakes it out and kicks several more times. Gracie overswings and bounces off the fence, and Mitchell catches him with a right hand, a knee up the middle and an elbow. Gracie runs at him, hands down, and hops into Mitchell’s arms once more to drag Mitchell into his guard. The crowd is not amused. Gracie keeps his guard closed for the most part, stuck on his back as Mitchell grinds him out. Mitchell gets bored in this position, and he backs out of the guard and stands up. Gracie follows him, walking directly into a few knees. Mitchell considers a body lock takedown, but before he can do this, Gracie pulls him down to the floor by jumping guard. Even the commentary booth is not happy about this development, and they express this openly. As Mitchell comfortably lowers himself into the guard, Gracie sets a trap with an armbar. Mitchell’s eyes go wide as he is suddenly caught in a scary predicament, and he stacks Gracie up to keep pressure and take the submission off the table. Gracie repositions his legs to wrap up a triangle choke, and Mitchell remains safe by staying as tight as he can to the Brazilian. Gracie transitions back to an armbar, and this time Mitchell is in a bad spot and standing upright. Somehow, Mitchell slides out of it, and he unloads with a torrent of punches until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 3
Mitchell is not as keen to sprint at his opponent as he was the last two rounds, and he tries to back an advancing Gracie away only to fall to his back when kicking. Gracie looks to take advantage of it, and Mitchell stands up. Mitchell digs the body with a left hand, knees him in the same spot, and Gracie ties him up in a body lock and falls to his back. This time, “Thug Nasty” has a plan. Mitchell slams him down by pressing his forearm on Gracie’s head. When landing with emphasis, Mitchell sits up just enough to unleash a blazing elbow that bounces Gracie’s head off the canvas and knocks him clean out. As Mitchell strikes again, he actually wakes Gracie up, all while Peterson is dashing between them to wave the fight off. Gracie comes to, and he may not know where he is at the moment. Meanwhile, the victorious Mitchell goes over to UFC chief Dana White, who congratulates him for slaying the dangerous grappler.

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Kron Gracie R3 0:39 via KO (Slam and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell confidently, calling it a 'bum fight' and a gift at -550. He believes Mitchell's wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Kron Gracie, who is one-dimensional and has poor striking. The only concern is Gracie's high-level BJJ, but Angelo thinks Mitchell's control and scrambles will prevail. He expects a dominant win.

"Bryce Mitchell wins this fight minus 550 should be a gift"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Gracie's inactivity and poor striking, while Mitchell's wrestling and physicality should dominate. He doesn't see Gracie having offensive tools to win.

Mitchell by decision
"Bryce Mitchell by decision is my official pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Mitchell because he is a much better wrestler than Gracie, which will likely force the fight to the ground where Mitchell has the advantage. He notes that Mitchell is a resourceful problem-solver with a well-rounded game, while Gracie is erratic and has not fought consistently. Connor hopes for a grappling battle but expects Mitchell to control the fight.

Mitchell opened at -575, currently -741; Gracie opened at +435, currently +536. Connor thinks the line is a little wide but still favors Mitchell.
"You got to take Bryce Mitchell straight forward pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Vreeland picks Bryce Mitchell, questioning Kron Gracie's path to victory. He acknowledges Gracie is better at jiu-jitsu but notes Mitchell is also very good and may be one of the best in the division. He points out Mitchell's poor boxing defense, as seen in losses to Josh Emmett and Giga Chikadze, but argues that Gracie won't beat him on the feet. Since Gracie can't outbox him, Mitchell wins.

"I'm going Bryce Mitchell obviously... I think for me the big piece of this is just like what's kon's path the victory you know like he's really good at Jiu-Jitsu he's probably better at Jiu-Jitsu than Bryce Mitchell but Bryce …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel sees this as a bounce-back spot for Mitchell after his knockout loss. He believes Mitchell's MMA jiu-jitsu and striking (side kicks, distance management) will nullify Gracie's one-dimensional BJJ. He notes Gracie's lack of knockout threat and Mitchell's takedown defense.

"I think Bryce Mitchell can nullify a guy like Cone Gracie."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Jeff Fox agrees with Mitchell, noting that Mitchell only gets beaten by people who rock him on the feet, which is not what Kron Gracie does. He points out that Gracie looked horrible in his last fight and has been gone forever, making Mitchell the obvious pick.

"yeah that's what I was gonna I was gonna say he's only getting beaten by people that that are rocking him on the feet and that is not what coron Gracie's going to do he's um he's not gonna beat …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell to win by decision, citing his superior MMA grappling and cage wrestling. He notes that Kron Gracie's BJJ is less effective in the Octagon due to cage pressure and strikes. He expects Mitchell to control the fight but not finish, recommending the over 2.5 rounds prop.

wins by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to go out on a whim here and say that the minus 800 favorite Bryce Mitchell rolls... I think that he's probably going to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Mitchell will take control of this fight by grinding out Gracie from top position or keeping him in uncomfortable positions. Gracie has little to offer other than his jiu-jitsu, so Mitchell will dictate the pace and win on the scorecards.

"Mitchell will be able to take control of this fight whether it's grinding out Gracie from the top position or at least keeping him un comfortable positions and winning this fight strictly just being in a dominant position"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Kron Gracie

Paul picks Gracie as a PRP pick, despite acknowledging his flaws. He notes Gracie's world-class jiu-jitsu and potential to catch Mitchell if he shoots takedowns. He questions Mitchell's training camp and chin after the Emmett knockout, making the underdog appealing at +650.

"I am going to take Kron Gracie as the PRP pick this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, expressing frustration that Kron Gracie is getting a ranked opponent despite being 0-2 against unranked featherweights. He trusts Mitchell's wrestling defense to avoid being submitted and believes Mitchell's underrated standup will carry him to a 29-28 decision. He expects Gracie might get his back late but Mitchell will escape.

"I trust Bryce Mitchell not to be submitted I don't trust him not to lose submission positions and maybe get his back taken at one point"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Zane agrees, emphasizing Mitchell's wrestling and problem-solving skills. He notes that Gracie's game is unpredictable and that Mitchell's consistent preparation gives him a clear edge. Zane also mentions that Mitchell has a few clean paths to victory, while Gracie's approach is chaotic.

"Bryce Mitchell is actually a very good wrestler. Take down artist and Cron is not a good defensive wrestler."
LOSS vs Josh Emmett
KO (punch) R1 1:57 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-225), Emmett (+185)

Round 1
On short notice, this featherweight pairing turned from a striker’s delight to a classic striker vs. grappler affair. Ready to throw hands aplenty will be Emmett (18-4, 9-4 UFC), while late replacement and grappling ace Mitchell (16-1, 7-1 UFC) wishes to shut that all down. 2023 Referee of the Year Herb Dean will be the third man in the Octagon, and the fighters are glad to be fighting tonight but do not express it with a glove touch. Mitchell starts off with pressure, but Emmett reaches out with a right hand to the body. Mitchell backs off and aims a low kick, and Emmett evades it and responds in kind. The fighters keep a wide berth from one another, and Emmett eventually moves forward and aims another right to the midsection. Emmett gets off a left hand and tries to follow it with a huge right hook, but Mitchell is out of the way before the latter connects. With malice in his eyes, Emmett unloads a bomb of a right hand that detonates flush on Mitchell’s chin. Mitchell goes down on his side in a heap, and he is completely out. Emmett lets out a guttural victory scream as Dean grabs him from behind to make sure that Emmett will not pursue a follow-up shot. As Dean lets go, he tends to the fallen Mitchell, who begins convulsing in unconsciousness. Medical staff members rush into the cage when alerted to Mitchell’s scary condition, as Mitchell goes into a full-blown grand mal seizure. After some time, Mitchell recovers and learns that he was starched. He tries to get back to his feet, but he cannot stand on his own. Mitchell is helped out of the cage, in good spirits despite just suffering a crushing defeat, and when Emmett feels comfortable celebrating, he does so with his corner of Team Alpha Male—which went 3-0 tonight, after Fili, Garbrandt and Emmett all recorded knockout wins. Hello, "Knockout of the Year"? You have a new contender calling.

The Official Result
Josh Emmett def. Bryce Mitchell R1 1:57 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell, trusting his wrestling to overcome Josh Emmett's power. He notes that Emmett is older and has abandoned wrestling for knockouts, while Mitchell is a relentless grappler. He has a half-unit bet on Mitchell at -140.

Half unit bet at -140; fight goes full 15 minutes
"Bryce Mitchell is the pick I got that bet on him and I trust him to wrestle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett as an underdog, citing concerns about Bryce Mitchell's short notice and reliance on relentless wrestling. He notes Emmett's wrestling background and that no one has consistently taken him down and controlled him. Brady highlights Emmett's power (7 consecutive fights with a knockdown) and believes if Mitchell can't get takedowns, he'll get knocked out. He predicts a damage-based decision or knockout for Emmett.

"I lean Josh EMT here I don't know whether he does win by knockout I could see like a damage based decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, arguing that Mitchell's wrestling and physical strength will be too much for Emmett. He notes that Emmett has poor takedown defense and that Mitchell will grind on him, break him down, and secure a finish. Cody also points out that Emmett is 38 and coming off a brutal beating from Ilia Topuria, while Mitchell is a contender on the rise. He expects Mitchell to win inside the distance.

Bryce Mitchell inside the distance
"Bryce Mitchell ends up just is getting the takedowns... grinds on him and secure the victory inside the distance"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell, believing he will get takedowns and work from top. He notes that Josh Emmett gets taken down often and gives up his back, and that Emmett is slowing down. He thinks Mitchell's tenacity and youth (29) will be key, and that even on the feet Mitchell can hold his own. He sees this as a spot where the favorite is justified, unlike other fights on the card.

"I think that Bryce Mitchell gets a takedown and I think that Bryce Mitchell does work from top."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

The host believes Mitchell's smothering grappling will be too much for Emmett, who is 38 and coming off a brutal loss to Topuria. He notes that Mitchell can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and bully Emmett to the mat, where he can grind out a decision or find a submission. He acknowledges Emmett's power but thinks Mitchell's durability and ability to avoid clean shots will allow him to implement his game plan. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think Mitchell decided to accept this fight on short notice because he saw the openings that he could Implement to try to get his hand raised here so give me Bryce Mitchell and Bryce Mitchell by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Josh Emmett

Paul picks Emmett at +200, questioning why Mitchell is such a big favorite. He notes that Emmett has power and can make it a tough night for Mitchell if the fight stays standing. He acknowledges Emmett's takedown defense is a concern (46%) but believes Emmett's explosiveness and power give him a chance. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at the underdog price.

"my official pick is Josh EMT at plus 200"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Josh Emmett

The Guru picks Josh Emmett over Bryce Mitchell, noting Emmett's power, wrestling background, and full camp (originally preparing for Giga Chikadze). He believes Mitchell's takedowns won't succeed due to Emmett's short, stocky build and takedown defense, and that Mitchell will be vulnerable on the feet. He predicts a TKO win for Emmett.

Emmett by TKO
"I'm going to go Josh EMT getting it done over Bryce Mitchell by TKO... I can just see Bryce Mitchell not getting his takedowns in the first and then being a bit weird looking on the feet"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 23 of 40 57% 37 of 59 5 of 15 33% 1 0 7:33
Dan Ige 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 14 of 22 63% 20 of 30 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:56
Dan Ige 0 10 of 25 40% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 5 of 12 41% 13 of 23 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:30
Dan Ige 0 8 of 26 30% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:07
Dan Ige 0 0 of 4 0% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 23 of 40 57% 13 of 22 7 of 14 3 of 4 17 of 29 1 of 3 5 of 8
Dan Ige 18 of 55 32% 13 of 47 3 of 6 2 of 2 16 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 14 of 22 63% 7 of 11 4 of 7 3 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 1 3 of 6
Dan Ige 10 of 25 40% 7 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 5 of 12 41% 3 of 6 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Bryce Mitchell 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2
Dan Ige 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Ige vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-205), Ige (+170)

Round 1
In the co-headliner spot, fans will be treated to a striker vs. grappler affair, at least on paper. Longing to take this fight to the ground, Mitchell (15-1, 6-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to hand Ige (17-6, 9-5 UFC) his first career submission defeat. On the other hand, the Hawaiian is hunting for his third win in a row, which would continue his run up the logjammed featherweight division. Referee Mark Smith draws the charge for this big fight, and he looks confused when Mitchell grabs a bible out of his cornerman’s hand and holds it up while screaming “Freedom.” When that odd moment ends, Smith clocks them in. There is no glove touch, as Mitchell is on a mission. Ige jabs to start the fight, and he counters a kick from Mitchell with a hard right hook. Mitchell wears it well and backs off when Ige chases after him to land a few punches. Mitchell pushes off with a side kick, and Ige misses a hook by a matter of inches. Ige clips “Thug Nasty” with a right hand, and Mitchell leaps at him to go after a double. Ige pushes him over, lands a punch that slips open a cut on Mitchell’s left cheek, and backs off. Ige is calm as a cucumber as he measures his opponent, and his third hook connects on the chin. Mitchell charges for a takedown attempt, and Ige defends the first try but gets tossed down on the second effort. Ige works his way back up and separates without much concern, and he blitzes with a winging right hook that just misses. Ige doubles up on a jab, and he counters a low kick with a left hook. As Mitchell recoils from the blow, his kick slaps into Ige’s cup. Ige is good to go, and Mitchell offers an apology from the accidental foul. Mitchell runs at Ige, where he does not get the takedown but does push Ige to the wall. The Hawaiian defends until he doesn’t, as Mitchell uses a body lock to put Ige on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in full mount, and Ige defends himself from any ground strikes. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Ige bucks to stop it. Ige turns to his side, swaying around to dodge all but a pair of punches. The round ends with Mitchell riding on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige

Round 2
Ige starts off the round flicking out several jabs, looking for his range so he can follow one with an overhand right. Mitchell pushes off with a front kick, and Ige belts him in the face with a left and a devastating right. Mitchell grimaces in pain and shoots in for a double, only to get turned around and elbows in the side of the head a few times. Ige stands him up, and the two jockey for position in the clinch. The Hawaiian slips away to restart in striking range, and damage has developed above and below Mitchell’s right eye. Ige loops a big hook on the busted eye, which splits open an enormous cut and draws some swelling. Smith calls time and brings in the doctor, but she clears Mitchell in a few seconds when Mitchell states he can see. When they resume, Mitchell tries for a naked takedown, and Ige tackles him over and lands on top. As Mitchell defends with rubber guard, Ige thinks better of the situation and stands back up. Mitchell follows after him, and he dives down after an ankle. Ige hops out of the way, parries a front kick and lands a right hand on the temple. Ige walks into a short left hand, and Mitchell times Ige’s blitz to take him off his feet and land right in mount. Ige keeps moving, turning to a side and then his knee. Mitchell follows him and takes his back with Ige leaning on the fence on his knees. “Thug Nasty” wrenches his right arm on the chin of his opponent, and he gets both hooks in and tries to flatten the Hawaiian out. Ige looks to slide out the back door, and Mitchell does not let him off the hook as he turns over to attack an arm-triangle choke. Ige defends it as Mitchell has him mounted, punching Mitchell in the side a few times. Mitchell lets go with the choke, and Ige bucks as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige

Round 3
Mitchell is once more cleared to keep fighting, even with the swollen eye and the serious cut above it. Ige peppers that damaged eye immediately when the last round kicks off, with a number of jabs. Mitchell replies with a body kick, and he runs at Ige to grab hold of a single. Ige gets taken down, but he is quick to power back to his feet even with Mitchell clinging to him. Ige turns Mitchell over, until Mitchell slides his legs around to keep the back take intact. Mitchell locks down a body triangle, and he switches it to the other side when Ige tries to break it. Ige slowly, calmly looks to spin in this position, and Mitchell hangs on without offering any offense of his own. When Ige is about to escape, Mitchell slithers over to take mount while Ige is on his back. Ige still manages to get upright, and Mitchell stays tight to him like a cheap suit. Ige leans up against the fence and shakes Mitchell with all his might to get some space. Mitchell elects to lift Ige completely off the ground to throw him down, and Ige lands and switches things around to turn Mitchell to his seat. Mitchell grips both of his hands on Ige’s left arm for a possible armlock, and Ige keeps tight from on top. Ige sits up to lean on Mitchell, and he moves into mount with 10 seconds to spare. Ige is unable to land anything until the horn sounds, and this fight could go either way depending on how the second round is scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Mitchell but with very low confidence. He notes Mitchell's wrestling is dominant and his control is phenomenal, but his personal life is a mess and Dan Ige is a tough, experienced opponent. He is staying away from betting this fight.

"Bryce Mitchell is going to be the pick insanely low pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige as an underdog, expecting a decision win. He analyzes Ige's past fights against wrestlers (Evalov, Korean Zombie, Bektich) and notes Ige was not controlled for long periods. He believes if Ige keeps the fight standing for at least half the fight, his striking advantage will win rounds. He thinks it could be a split decision based on damage vs control.

"I'm gonna take Danny gay to win this final actually say he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell by decision, citing Mitchell's superior wrestling and physicality. He notes Ige's poor takedown defense (58% in UFC) and that Mitchell has dominated similar opponents. He acknowledges Ige's durability and power but believes Mitchell's game plan of takedowns and control will prevail.

"I think he's going to be able to get the takedowns and probably wins this fight by decision so he's my pick."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Dan Ige

Daniel thinks Mitchell's price is too high at -200 and sees value in Ige as a dog. He notes Ige's confidence is back after two wins, he's physical, and has never been submitted. He questions Mitchell's focus after a bad knockout and personal issues, and points out Mitchell's low striking output and reliance on takedowns. He believes Ige can win a split decision if he avoids extended grappling, and likes the plus money.

plus 170 moneyline; considering Ige by split decision
"I'm hoping at this plus 170 plus 180 where I might take a one or two unit shot that e get me to a split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Dan Ige

Lucrative James sees value on Ige at plus 170, noting Ige's power and takedown defense when fresh. He questions Mitchell's mindset after a loss and possible retirement talk. However, he acknowledges Mitchell could dominate on the ground. He considers a small shot on Ige but is not fully committed.

"I kind of feel like there's a little bit of value on Ige here at plus 170."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Dan Ige

The host picks Dan Ige as a plus 180 underdog, citing Ige's takedown defense and BJJ black belt to neutralize Mitchell's grappling. He expects Ige to use his crisp boxing to draw out desperation takedowns and angle off, accruing damage on the feet. He notes Mitchell's striking is empty and only sets up takedowns, and that Ige's experience against better grapplers (like Movsar Evloev) prepares him for this.

"plus 180 I think Danny gets a damn good Underdog spot here to go out there and pull off the upside against Mitchell"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Paul also picks Mitchell by decision, despite acknowledging Ige's live underdog potential due to Mitchell's injuries and personal issues. He believes Mitchell's takedown entries are sharp and that he will stick to his wrestling game plan. He mentions Ige's durability but thinks Mitchell's wrestling will be the difference.

"I'm willing to give Bryce Mitchell the benefit of the doubt... I think I'm just gonna stick with Bryce Mitchell and go with the Mitchell by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes Mitchell's poor stand-up but excellent wrestling, and thinks he can take down Dan Ige, who struggled with Damon Jackson's takedown threat. He acknowledges Ige's wrestling at Team Alpha Male but believes Mitchell's positional grappling is superior. He mentions potential value on Ige by KO if Mitchell is distracted by personal issues, but expects a composed Mitchell to outwrestle Ige.

maybe some value on a Danny gay KO in case...
"Bryce Mitchell versus Dan Eagle this is a good matchup and I'm gonna go with Bryce Mitchell..."
LOSS vs Ilia Topuria
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:10 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 36 of 82 43% 46 of 94 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:29
Bryce Mitchell 1 40 of 77 51% 53 of 93 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 21 of 52 40% 31 of 64 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:29
Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 38 44% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Bryce Mitchell 1 23 of 39 58% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 36 of 82 43% 22 of 57 11 of 22 3 of 3 34 of 79 1 of 1 1 of 2
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 77 51% 34 of 63 5 of 13 1 of 1 29 of 64 3 of 4 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 21 of 52 40% 13 of 38 6 of 12 2 of 2 20 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 2
Bryce Mitchell 17 of 38 44% 12 of 27 4 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 15 of 30 50% 9 of 19 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 23 of 39 58% 22 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 27 2 of 3 8 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)

Round 1
In this main card opener, only one undefeated fighter will remain shortly. Entering into his seventh outing as a UFC fighter, “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC) would very much like to spoil the fellow perfect record of Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC), all while sporting special camouflage fight shorts. Topuria does not receive special apparel, but he does celebrate a 92% finish rate that could play a factor very soon. 2022 Referee of the Year award winner Marc Goddard is on the call for this important featherweight pairing, and the fighters he oversees do not bother touching gloves first. Topuria stays low, and he wades forward into action. After Mitchell leads off with a kick to the knee and a side kick, Topuria blasts the Arkansas native in the face with four powerful punches. Topuria digs into the lead calf with a kick to force an immediate stance switch, and Mitchell shoots in for a takedown that fails. Topuria meet him in the middle and catches Michell cleanly with a right hand, and Mitchell responds with a few solid jabs and a low kick. Topuria connects with a right hand down Broadway, and Mitchell replies with a left. The single hooks from Topuria get around the guard and get Mitchell’s attention, with his right finding the target again and again. Mitchell tosses out a front kick that aims at the face, and he shoots for a failed takedown that Topuria easily avoids. As they clash together, a cut opens on the inner left eyebrow of the American. Mitchell lines up two punches and changes levels for a low single, but Topuria springs away to push his back to the wall. Topuria nearly turns things around, forcing Mitchell to drop to a knee, and ultimately stopping the entry. Mitchell releases the clinch and gets off a body shot, but Topuria rings his bell with an overhand right. “El Matador” throws two punches so hard he stumbles, but Mitchell does not capitalize on this and instead allows Topuria to return to striking stance. Topuria dodges a kick and uses head movement to work his way in, and Mitchell crashes forward and practically tackles Topuria to put him on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in half guard, but Topuria pulls him back to the guard and boxes the ear from off his back. Mitchell scores a few punches, but Topuria stings him with a left hand off his back. Mitchell rides out the top position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
Mitchell starts the second round rushing forward, but ultimately he walks into two lightning-quick punches. Mitchell attempts to respond with a side kick, but Topuria pushes it aside and stuffs a takedown try. When Mitchell stands up, Topuria nails his man in the face with a pair of strikes. Mitchell recovers and gets backed off by the swinging offense of his opponent, and they clash together again and may bump heads, but Mitchell cannot ground him with another effort. Mitchell looks to time the overhand right with takedown tries, but time and time again, he falls short. Topuria overthrows a punch, and Mitchell gets his attention with a short combo that fires up the crowd. Topuria sets up an uppercut with two punches to follow it, and he knocks the Arkansan off his feet and down to the mat. Topuria leaps down to possibly pull off a neck-based choke, but a bloodied Mitchell welcomes this so that he can set up a scramble or go for a submission. Topuria does not let him off the hook, bludgeoning him repeatedly with thunderous blows until Mitchell works his way up. Mitchell attempts to get a takedown when Topuria is laying into him, but Topuria throws him over to the mat like a kid wrestling with his dad. A deflated Mitchell tries with all his might to turn or twist, and he manages to sit up. This is not the best position for him, as Topuria snatches on to a seated arm-triangle choke and hurls Mitchell back down, with the submission exceptionally tight. The submission specialist Mitchell, who had won 15 fights as a pro – the loss the UFC claimed took place on “The Ultimate Fighter” and was an exhibition match – surrenders for the first time in his career. This is a massive victory for Topuria, who stamps himself as a featherweight contender and calls for a UFC card in Spain.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:10 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ilia Topuria

Angelo is extremely confident Topuria wins, calling him a world-class wrestler from Georgia who can outstrike and outwrestle Mitchell. He compares it to Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson, where the world-class wrestler dominated. He has a moneyline bet on Topuria placed earlier and is shocked Topuria isn't a 9-1 favorite. He believes Mitchell's Arkansas wrestling is no match for Topuria's lifelong Georgian wrestling.

Moneyline bet placed earlier; interested in takedown prop bets (who gets more takedowns).
"Ilia taporia is going to smoke Vice Mitchell he can outstrike him he can out wrestle him he's gonna do whatever the hell he wants"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady slightly leans toward Bryce Mitchell as a dog, citing Mitchell's superior cardio and wrestling. He notes Topuria has shown cardio issues in his only decision win, while Mitchell has improved striking and can push a pace. He expects a back-and-forth war with Mitchell edging out a split decision, but has low confidence.

Mitchell wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think I'm gonna slightly lean with the dog in in Bryce Mitchell... give me Bryce Mitchell for the decision win but no confidence in it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his development, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He thinks Mitchell's pressure and takedowns will be key, and that Topuria's wrestling may not be enough to stop him. He notes Topuria's close fight with Herbert Burns and that Mitchell has better cardio and can take over late. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think it's a Bryce Mitchell decision I think he just he gets the takedowns he backs him up he puts the pressure gives a punch to take a punch sure but just you know is the guy that's continuously …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Mitchell, citing his versatility, wrestling, and ability to take advantage of opportunities. He notes Topuria has a narrow approach and Mitchell has proven he can adapt and take fights where he wants. Connor believes Mitchell's takedowns and top control will be decisive, as Topuria hasn't faced a grappler of Mitchell's caliber.

Odds: Mitchell opened +130, now +119; Topuria opened -150, now -143.
"I'm going to pick him here because I think Taporia's just got a slightly narrower approach. Mitchell has already proven in multiple fights that he can take whatever opportunities his opponent gives him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to hand Bryce Mitchell his first loss. He is impressed by Topuria's fast-twitch athleticism, nasty hands, body work, and Greco-Roman wrestling background. Levi notes Topuria's ability to stuff takedowns and his proven heart (coming back from a head kick knockdown). He believes Topuria's athleticism and well-rounded game will be too much for Mitchell, who relies on relentless takedown attempts. Levi acknowledges Mitchell's toughness and top control but thinks Topuria can sprawl and brawl, making Mitchell pay for his shots.

"I'm gonna go with Ilya taporia to hand Bryce Mitchell his first official defeat"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ilia Topuria

Lock likes Topuria on the moneyline and on PredictionStrike, noting that at -130 and $1.75 on PredictionStrike, there is good value. He acknowledges question marks about Topuria's third round against Yousuff and getting rocked by Jai Herbert, but credits him for battling back from adversity. He believes Topuria has tremendous potential and that the hype is justified, though he needs to prove it. He recommends taking Topuria on PredictionStrike and moneyline, while for Mitchell, he suggests just the moneyline as a dog.

"here minus 130 and on prediction strike as the quote unquote Underdog in this matchup on prediction strike I think you can get a damn good return on your advice investment should you bet him on the money line and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Paul picks Mitchell, noting his intelligence in the fight and ability to pick his spots. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling and submission threat will be a factor, and that Topuria's power and speed are dangerous early. He suggests a Mitchell round 3 prop or live betting, as Mitchell may take over later. He is not fully confident but leans Mitchell.

Mitchell round 3 prop (suggested)
"I'm gonna pick Mitchell but I think this is more like a maybe maybe we jump on to like a Mitchell round three prop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ilia Topuria

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell by first-round TKO via body shots. He respects Mitchell's skills but believes Topuria's boxing is too clean and he will push Mitchell backwards, ripping body shots. He notes Topuria's scrambling ability and submission threats, and thinks Mitchell will struggle to get takedowns. He predicts Topuria finishes him early.

"I'm gonna go with Ilya to Puria over Bryce Mitchell"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, citing his confidence on the ground from the Ryan Hall fight and his superior athleticism. He believes Topuria's grappling will get him back to his feet repeatedly, and his striking pressure will force Mitchell to process the fight too often. Zane notes Mitchell's striking gaps when he's indecisive, and Topuria's body punching will be key.

Odds: Mitchell opened +130, now +119; Topuria opened -150, now -143.
"I'm going to stick with Taporia here because I do think that Taporia's confidence on the ground, as shown in the Ryan Hall fight, is well earned out of very, very smart and well-trained positional control."
Kron Gracie - Fight History
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
KO (slam and elbows) R3 0:39 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 26 of 36 72% 147 of 177 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:33
Kron Gracie 0 6 of 31 19% 90 of 118 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 6 of 8 75% 64 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Kron Gracie 0 2 of 7 28% 41 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 70 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
Kron Gracie 0 1 of 18 5% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kron Gracie 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 26 of 36 72% 14 of 23 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 26 5 of 5 4 of 5
Kron Gracie 6 of 31 19% 4 of 25 1 of 3 1 of 3 5 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 3 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 2
Kron Gracie 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 6 of 9 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 1 of 18 5% 1 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 7 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kron Gracie 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kron Gracie vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-700), Gracie (+500)

Round 1
With the previous pairing on paper one between two fearless strikers, the match that follows is a potential grappler’s delight. Mitchell (16-2, 7-2 UFC) has never landed a knockout or even scored an injury or doctor stoppage, while Gracie (5-2, 1-2 UFC) has only won by submission. It could play out in a number of ways, and referee Keith Peterson will keep it on the up-and-up while making certain there will be no nonsense allowed. The 145ers have no plan on touching gloves, and instead Mitchell hops forward to attack with a front kick. Both men kick low at the same time, and Gracie works his way forward and misses with a right hook. Mitchell kicks the front leg and drives a knee to the body when Gracie works his way towards him, and Gracie jumps into Mitchell’s arms and drags him down to the mat without having a submission set up. Mitchell lowers himself unafraid into half guard, and Gracie closes his guard around his waist. Mitchell keeps his hand covering Gracie’s mouth, and the two otherwise stall one another out while horizontal. Mitchell stacks Gracie up but his arms are stuck, and all he can attack with is short left hands to the ribs. The audience is not impressed by the relative stalemate, with Mitchell making no reckless moves while Gracie is not able to set anything up. Mitchell gets off a few punches when seeing openings, and he ignores when Gracie throws his legs up for a high guard. Mitchell drops down a single elbow, and he softens up the midsection with a couple additional punches to stay busy enough to remain in this position. Gracie raps his hand on the back of Mitchell’s head a few times with meaningless rabbit punches, and Mitchell remains smothering on top until the tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
The second round opens with Mitchell jabbing with the ball of his foot, and he reaches over the guard with a right hand. Gracie steels himself and rocks Mitchell with a left hand, and Mitchell shakes it out and kicks several more times. Gracie overswings and bounces off the fence, and Mitchell catches him with a right hand, a knee up the middle and an elbow. Gracie runs at him, hands down, and hops into Mitchell’s arms once more to drag Mitchell into his guard. The crowd is not amused. Gracie keeps his guard closed for the most part, stuck on his back as Mitchell grinds him out. Mitchell gets bored in this position, and he backs out of the guard and stands up. Gracie follows him, walking directly into a few knees. Mitchell considers a body lock takedown, but before he can do this, Gracie pulls him down to the floor by jumping guard. Even the commentary booth is not happy about this development, and they express this openly. As Mitchell comfortably lowers himself into the guard, Gracie sets a trap with an armbar. Mitchell’s eyes go wide as he is suddenly caught in a scary predicament, and he stacks Gracie up to keep pressure and take the submission off the table. Gracie repositions his legs to wrap up a triangle choke, and Mitchell remains safe by staying as tight as he can to the Brazilian. Gracie transitions back to an armbar, and this time Mitchell is in a bad spot and standing upright. Somehow, Mitchell slides out of it, and he unloads with a torrent of punches until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 3
Mitchell is not as keen to sprint at his opponent as he was the last two rounds, and he tries to back an advancing Gracie away only to fall to his back when kicking. Gracie looks to take advantage of it, and Mitchell stands up. Mitchell digs the body with a left hand, knees him in the same spot, and Gracie ties him up in a body lock and falls to his back. This time, “Thug Nasty” has a plan. Mitchell slams him down by pressing his forearm on Gracie’s head. When landing with emphasis, Mitchell sits up just enough to unleash a blazing elbow that bounces Gracie’s head off the canvas and knocks him clean out. As Mitchell strikes again, he actually wakes Gracie up, all while Peterson is dashing between them to wave the fight off. Gracie comes to, and he may not know where he is at the moment. Meanwhile, the victorious Mitchell goes over to UFC chief Dana White, who congratulates him for slaying the dangerous grappler.

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Kron Gracie R3 0:39 via KO (Slam and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell confidently, calling it a 'bum fight' and a gift at -550. He believes Mitchell's wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Kron Gracie, who is one-dimensional and has poor striking. The only concern is Gracie's high-level BJJ, but Angelo thinks Mitchell's control and scrambles will prevail. He expects a dominant win.

"Bryce Mitchell wins this fight minus 550 should be a gift"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Gracie's inactivity and poor striking, while Mitchell's wrestling and physicality should dominate. He doesn't see Gracie having offensive tools to win.

Mitchell by decision
"Bryce Mitchell by decision is my official pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Mitchell because he is a much better wrestler than Gracie, which will likely force the fight to the ground where Mitchell has the advantage. He notes that Mitchell is a resourceful problem-solver with a well-rounded game, while Gracie is erratic and has not fought consistently. Connor hopes for a grappling battle but expects Mitchell to control the fight.

Mitchell opened at -575, currently -741; Gracie opened at +435, currently +536. Connor thinks the line is a little wide but still favors Mitchell.
"You got to take Bryce Mitchell straight forward pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel sees this as a bounce-back spot for Mitchell after his knockout loss. He believes Mitchell's MMA jiu-jitsu and striking (side kicks, distance management) will nullify Gracie's one-dimensional BJJ. He notes Gracie's lack of knockout threat and Mitchell's takedown defense.

"I think Bryce Mitchell can nullify a guy like Cone Gracie."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Vreeland picks Bryce Mitchell, questioning Kron Gracie's path to victory. He acknowledges Gracie is better at jiu-jitsu but notes Mitchell is also very good and may be one of the best in the division. He points out Mitchell's poor boxing defense, as seen in losses to Josh Emmett and Giga Chikadze, but argues that Gracie won't beat him on the feet. Since Gracie can't outbox him, Mitchell wins.

"I'm going Bryce Mitchell obviously... I think for me the big piece of this is just like what's kon's path the victory you know like he's really good at Jiu-Jitsu he's probably better at Jiu-Jitsu than Bryce Mitchell but Bryce …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Jeff Fox agrees with Mitchell, noting that Mitchell only gets beaten by people who rock him on the feet, which is not what Kron Gracie does. He points out that Gracie looked horrible in his last fight and has been gone forever, making Mitchell the obvious pick.

"yeah that's what I was gonna I was gonna say he's only getting beaten by people that that are rocking him on the feet and that is not what coron Gracie's going to do he's um he's not gonna beat …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell to win by decision, citing his superior MMA grappling and cage wrestling. He notes that Kron Gracie's BJJ is less effective in the Octagon due to cage pressure and strikes. He expects Mitchell to control the fight but not finish, recommending the over 2.5 rounds prop.

wins by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to go out on a whim here and say that the minus 800 favorite Bryce Mitchell rolls... I think that he's probably going to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Mitchell will take control of this fight by grinding out Gracie from top position or keeping him in uncomfortable positions. Gracie has little to offer other than his jiu-jitsu, so Mitchell will dictate the pace and win on the scorecards.

"Mitchell will be able to take control of this fight whether it's grinding out Gracie from the top position or at least keeping him un comfortable positions and winning this fight strictly just being in a dominant position"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Kron Gracie

Paul picks Gracie as a PRP pick, despite acknowledging his flaws. He notes Gracie's world-class jiu-jitsu and potential to catch Mitchell if he shoots takedowns. He questions Mitchell's training camp and chin after the Emmett knockout, making the underdog appealing at +650.

"I am going to take Kron Gracie as the PRP pick this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, expressing frustration that Kron Gracie is getting a ranked opponent despite being 0-2 against unranked featherweights. He trusts Mitchell's wrestling defense to avoid being submitted and believes Mitchell's underrated standup will carry him to a 29-28 decision. He expects Gracie might get his back late but Mitchell will escape.

"I trust Bryce Mitchell not to be submitted I don't trust him not to lose submission positions and maybe get his back taken at one point"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Zane agrees, emphasizing Mitchell's wrestling and problem-solving skills. He notes that Gracie's game is unpredictable and that Mitchell's consistent preparation gives him a clear edge. Zane also mentions that Mitchell has a few clean paths to victory, while Gracie's approach is chaotic.

"Bryce Mitchell is actually a very good wrestler. Take down artist and Cron is not a good defensive wrestler."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Jourdain 0 32 of 57 56% 171 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Kron Gracie 0 80 of 168 47% 175 of 266 0 of 0 --- 0 0 6:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Jourdain 0 12 of 22 54% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Kron Gracie 0 21 of 46 45% 34 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
2 Charles Jourdain 0 10 of 14 71% 68 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Kron Gracie 0 21 of 47 44% 55 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:03
3 Charles Jourdain 0 10 of 21 47% 55 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kron Gracie 0 38 of 75 50% 86 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Jourdain 32 of 57 56% 18 of 37 1 of 6 13 of 14 32 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 80 of 168 47% 59 of 145 14 of 16 7 of 7 54 of 138 16 of 20 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Jourdain 12 of 22 54% 4 of 12 0 of 2 8 of 8 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 21 of 46 45% 19 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 40 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Charles Jourdain 10 of 14 71% 5 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 5 10 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 21 of 47 44% 17 of 43 4 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 35 4 of 7 5 of 5
3 Charles Jourdain 10 of 21 47% 9 of 17 0 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 38 of 75 50% 23 of 58 8 of 10 7 of 7 27 of 63 6 of 7 5 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jourdain (-180), Gracie (+155)

Round 1
Styles make fights, and that could scarcely be said more appropriately the UFC 288 main card opener. Submission master Gracie (5-1, 1-1 UFC), competing for the first time since October 2019, will be hoping to shake off any rust in short order. He will collide with high-flying striker Jourdain (13-6-1, 4-5-1 UFC), who aims to lift his UFC record to an even .500. The Octagon ranger for this featherweight matchup will be referee Gary Copeland, and the fighters do not touch gloves ahead of the bout. They meet in the middle of the cage but do not throw much of note, pawing out with occasional jabs and hand-fighting. Jourdain splits the guard with a few such jabs, and he chains a few sharp punches and powerful uppercuts together to get Gracie’s respect early. Gracie walks forward, and reaches out with a right hand simply to distract Jourdain enough to close the distance. Jourdain fights off a takedown attempt frantically, and when Gracie re-engages, the Canadian chucks his man down to the canvas. Jourdain intercepts the rushing Gracie with an uppercut, and he stays on his back foot as Gracie is committed to stalking him down and looking for some kind of level change. Jourdain stops this in its track momentarily with a fierce combination, and he slides away from the plodding Gracie. Jourdain cracks Gracie again and pushes him off when Gracie tries to tie him up, and his uppercut continues to split the guard. As Jourdain is moving and sticking, Gracie snatches him up just enough to pull guard. The Brazilian gladly lands on his back, and he slowly moves his guard up high to threaten with a potential triangle choke or armbar setup. Jourdain is wise to it, and he slowly slides his upper body out of danger and softens Gracie up with body shots. Jourdain leaps back to his feet and hops away before Gracie can trip him up, and Gracie scoots on his posterior until the crowd boos him. Gracie stands back up, and he meanders forward to close in and tie Jourdain up. The two trade short body shots until Jourdain breaks out, and he scores a few uppercuts when backpedaling. Gracie throws two naked leg kicks, and Jourdain tags him with a few punches that damage his nose before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain

Round 2
Jourdain opens the round up with a few quick punches, landing fast enough to quell Gracie’s never-ending forward movement. Gracie wanders forward into the fray, throwing little in the way of offense as he is singularly obsessed with just getting his hands or legs on his foe. As they clinch, Gracie pulls guard, and he succeeds in managing to bring Jourdain with him. The Canadian positions Gracie in a bad place with his neck up against the wire, and Gracie is quick to roll for an armbar as Jourdain opens up with ground-and-pound. “Air” resets on top and starts absorbing elbows to the top of his dome, but he is not in submission danger. Gracie puts a high guard up again and looks to isolate Jourdain’s left arm, and Jourdain maintains heavy chest pressure to not let Gracie get enough space to secure anything. Jourdain ignores offense coming from his adversary, as it is short and not particular effective, and more of a setup for Gracie to try a submission. Jourdain explodes out of the guard and gets back to his feet, and he backs off and knees Gracie in the body when Gracie bears down on him. Jourdain strings several punches together that get around the guard, and he whiffs on an uppercut that lets Gracie close in. Jourdain swings out with an elbow, and he gets tagged with an unexpected left hand before getting mashed up against the wall. Gracie pulls guard once more to force the fight horizontal, and Jourdain shucks off arm control to drop down a solid elbow. The round ends with Jourdain in no particular danger.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Gracie slowly lumbers from out of his corner. Jourdain dances his way in and out, ripping body shots and keeping out of reach. Jourdain lands an uppercut and takes one punch on the chin, with Gracie throwing a modicum more of offense but not enough to make a difference. Jourdain tags Gracie with a right hand, and Gracie attempts to pull guard. Jourdain drives him to the fence and slides him off, and Gracie crashes forward and bangs his head into his opponent’s. Jourdain releases clean combinations, rarely throwing single blows and landing en masse. Gracie takes them on the chin, generally, and succeeds to pull guard again. The crowd lets Gracie have it for this tactic, and he does not adjust his approach and hopes to secure a submission. Jourdain pounds on the ribcage with short punches and elbows, not concerned with the grappling chops of his opponent, and he stacks Gracie up briefly. Gracie hangs on from beneath, until Jourdain sees and opening and darts back upright. Gracie follows him while on his seat, aiming kicks to the knees, and Jourdain answers with slapping kicks. Copeland forces Gracie to stand up, and Gracie carries out his perpetual forward motion that is unable to lock Jourdain down and do anything. Jourdain breaks away thanks to a knee to the body, and he slams a shin into Gracie’s liver. Jourdain slips a few punches and tees off on Gracie, who is taking a beating but not slowing. Jourdain jumps in the air with a flying knee with seconds to go, and he lets fly a few more punches and kick until the lackluster match ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (30-27 Jourdain)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (30-27 Jourdain)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (30-27 Jourdain)

The Official Result
Charles Jourdain def. Kron Gracie via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Charles Jourdain

Angelo picks Charles Jourdain because he is the more complete MMA fighter. He notes that Kron Gracie has been away for four years and in his last fight against Cub Swanson, he didn't attempt to grapple effectively and was pieced up on the feet. Angelo believes Jourdain's takedown defense should be sufficient against Gracie's poor wrestling, and that Jourdain's striking and speed will be decisive. He sees the most likely outcomes as Jourdain by decision or Gracie by submission, but favors the MMA fighter.

"I've got to go with the MMA fighter here right like how do I not pick the actual MMA fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kron Gracie

Big Brady picks Gracie despite a 3.5-year layoff. He notes Jourdain has poor takedown defense (48%), and Gracie only needs one takedown to submit him. He acknowledges the layoff is a huge risk but believes Gracie's path to victory is clear: take Jourdain down, take his back, and choke him out. He predicts a first-round submission.

First round submission prediction
"I'm gonna take Gracie massive massive layoff here but I'll take him to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kron Gracie

Cody highlights that Jourdain has 48% takedown defense in the UFC and gets taken down frequently by lesser grapplers. He believes Gracie's world-class jiu-jitsu can exploit Jourdain's wild striking style, which creates openings for takedowns. Despite Gracie's four-year layoff, he sees value at plus money because Jourdain's recklessness plays into Gracie's strengths.

"he shows career takedown defense in the UFC of 48 percent and he's taking on Crown Gracie and KRON Gracie's plus money that's good enough for me man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Charles Jourdain

Connor also picks Jourdain, citing the X factors of Gracie's long layoff and uncertainty about his training. He notes that Jourdain is a very good striker who can stop takedowns after the first round, and that Gracie's best chance is an early submission. Connor believes Jourdain's power and pressure will be too much as the fight progresses.

"I just got to go with Jordan here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kron Gracie

The host picks Kron Gracie by submission in round one, hoping Gracie learned from his loss to Cub Swanson and will be more aggressive with takedowns. He believes Gracie's high-level BJJ will find a submission against Charles Jourdain, who has struggled against grapplers.

Gracie by submission, round 1
"give me Crone by submission round one"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kron Gracie

Paul agrees with Cody and has already bet Gracie by submission at +230. He notes that Jourdain is dangerous at range but gives opportunities to grapple, and Gracie's path is clear: get the fight to the mat. He sees the line moving and expects Gracie to find a submission.

Gracie by submission +230
"Gracie by sub I just snagged a little bit of it at plus 230"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Charles Jourdain

The Guru picks Jourdain, citing Gracie's four-year layoff and Jourdain's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Jourdain will use kicks to bust up Gracie's lead leg and set up a body kick KO. He predicts a finish in the first or second round via body kick.

body kick KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm actually going to go with a body kit KO for Charles Jordan I think he's going to get the hands up higher throw a couple of head kicks throw a couple of leg kicks mix it up high and …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Charles Jourdain

Zane picks Jourdain, noting that Jourdain's striking improves as the fight goes on and that he has good takedown defense after the first round. He acknowledges the risk of Gracie submitting him early but believes Jourdain's power and fluid boxing will take over in later rounds. Zane also mentions that Gracie's long layoff is a concern.

"I'm going to pick him."
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Oct 12, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 0 135 of 288 46% 143 of 296 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Kron Gracie 0 86 of 200 43% 109 of 225 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kron Gracie 0 19 of 58 32% 19 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cub Swanson 0 53 of 99 53% 55 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Kron Gracie 0 36 of 78 46% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Cub Swanson 0 59 of 129 45% 65 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Kron Gracie 0 31 of 64 48% 44 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 135 of 288 46% 84 of 215 40 of 58 11 of 15 110 of 252 24 of 34 1 of 2
Kron Gracie 86 of 200 43% 73 of 177 4 of 8 9 of 15 74 of 182 11 of 16 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 23 of 60 38% 11 of 45 7 of 8 5 of 7 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 19 of 58 32% 14 of 45 2 of 6 3 of 7 19 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 53 of 99 53% 33 of 72 16 of 23 4 of 4 46 of 88 7 of 10 0 of 1
Kron Gracie 36 of 78 46% 29 of 71 2 of 2 5 of 5 33 of 70 3 of 7 0 of 1
3 Cub Swanson 59 of 129 45% 40 of 98 17 of 27 2 of 4 41 of 104 17 of 24 1 of 1
Kron Gracie 31 of 64 48% 30 of 61 0 of 0 1 of 3 22 of 54 8 of 9 1 of 1
WIN vs Alex Caceres
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:06 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kron Gracie 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Caceres 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kron Gracie 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Caceres 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kron Gracie 4 of 14 28% 3 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Caceres 2 of 10 20% 1 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 4 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kron Gracie 4 of 14 28% 3 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Caceres 2 of 10 20% 1 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 4 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell confidently, calling it a 'bum fight' and a gift at -550. He believes Mitchell's wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Kron Gracie, who is one-dimensional and has poor striking. The only concern is Gracie's high-level BJJ, but Angelo thinks Mitchell's control and scrambles will prevail. He expects a dominant win.

"Bryce Mitchell wins this fight minus 550 should be a gift"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Gracie's inactivity and poor striking, while Mitchell's wrestling and physicality should dominate. He doesn't see Gracie having offensive tools to win.

Mitchell by decision
"Bryce Mitchell by decision is my official pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Mitchell because he is a much better wrestler than Gracie, which will likely force the fight to the ground where Mitchell has the advantage. He notes that Mitchell is a resourceful problem-solver with a well-rounded game, while Gracie is erratic and has not fought consistently. Connor hopes for a grappling battle but expects Mitchell to control the fight.

Mitchell opened at -575, currently -741; Gracie opened at +435, currently +536. Connor thinks the line is a little wide but still favors Mitchell.
"You got to take Bryce Mitchell straight forward pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Vreeland picks Bryce Mitchell, questioning Kron Gracie's path to victory. He acknowledges Gracie is better at jiu-jitsu but notes Mitchell is also very good and may be one of the best in the division. He points out Mitchell's poor boxing defense, as seen in losses to Josh Emmett and Giga Chikadze, but argues that Gracie won't beat him on the feet. Since Gracie can't outbox him, Mitchell wins.

"I'm going Bryce Mitchell obviously... I think for me the big piece of this is just like what's kon's path the victory you know like he's really good at Jiu-Jitsu he's probably better at Jiu-Jitsu than Bryce Mitchell but Bryce Mitchell is very good at Jiu-Jitsu he he is a …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel sees this as a bounce-back spot for Mitchell after his knockout loss. He believes Mitchell's MMA jiu-jitsu and striking (side kicks, distance management) will nullify Gracie's one-dimensional BJJ. He notes Gracie's lack of knockout threat and Mitchell's takedown defense.

"I think Bryce Mitchell can nullify a guy like Cone Gracie."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Jeff Fox agrees with Mitchell, noting that Mitchell only gets beaten by people who rock him on the feet, which is not what Kron Gracie does. He points out that Gracie looked horrible in his last fight and has been gone forever, making Mitchell the obvious pick.

"yeah that's what I was gonna I was gonna say he's only getting beaten by people that that are rocking him on the feet and that is not what coron Gracie's going to do he's um he's not gonna beat him up in the feet and he looked so horrible …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell to win by decision, citing his superior MMA grappling and cage wrestling. He notes that Kron Gracie's BJJ is less effective in the Octagon due to cage pressure and strikes. He expects Mitchell to control the fight but not finish, recommending the over 2.5 rounds prop.

wins by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to go out on a whim here and say that the minus 800 favorite Bryce Mitchell rolls... I think that he's probably going to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Mitchell will take control of this fight by grinding out Gracie from top position or keeping him in uncomfortable positions. Gracie has little to offer other than his jiu-jitsu, so Mitchell will dictate the pace and win on the scorecards.

"Mitchell will be able to take control of this fight whether it's grinding out Gracie from the top position or at least keeping him un comfortable positions and winning this fight strictly just being in a dominant position"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Kron Gracie

Paul picks Gracie as a PRP pick, despite acknowledging his flaws. He notes Gracie's world-class jiu-jitsu and potential to catch Mitchell if he shoots takedowns. He questions Mitchell's training camp and chin after the Emmett knockout, making the underdog appealing at +650.

"I am going to take Kron Gracie as the PRP pick this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, expressing frustration that Kron Gracie is getting a ranked opponent despite being 0-2 against unranked featherweights. He trusts Mitchell's wrestling defense to avoid being submitted and believes Mitchell's underrated standup will carry him to a 29-28 decision. He expects Gracie might get his back late but Mitchell will escape.

"I trust Bryce Mitchell not to be submitted I don't trust him not to lose submission positions and maybe get his back taken at one point"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bryce Mitchell

Zane agrees, emphasizing Mitchell's wrestling and problem-solving skills. He notes that Gracie's game is unpredictable and that Mitchell's consistent preparation gives him a clear edge. Zane also mentions that Mitchell has a few clean paths to victory, while Gracie's approach is chaotic.

"Bryce Mitchell is actually a very good wrestler. Take down artist and Cron is not a good defensive wrestler."