UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Age 33
Height 6' 5"
Reach 83.0"
Weight 236 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78"
Weight 236 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kennedy Nzechukwu
4.96 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.58 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.5 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Łukasz Brzeski
4.9 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.41 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Moneyline
BetWay -549
KO/TKO
FanDuel -140
Submission
BetRivers +950
Decision
FanDuel +340
Łukasz Brzeski
Moneyline
DraftKings +470
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
BetRivers +4000
Decision
FanDuel +800
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Fight History
Draw vs Marcus Buchecha
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 24 of 48 50% 58 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:37
Marcus Buchecha 0 27 of 44 61% 47 of 66 3 of 13 23% 0 0 6:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 9 of 18 50% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Marcus Buchecha 0 2 of 9 22% 3 of 10 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:22
2 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Marcus Buchecha 0 25 of 35 71% 40 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:39
3 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:49
Marcus Buchecha 0 0 of 0 --- 4 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 24 of 48 50% 21 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 32 2 of 2 9 of 14
Marcus Buchecha 27 of 44 61% 23 of 38 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 12 2 of 4 23 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 9 of 18 50% 7 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 1
Marcus Buchecha 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Kennedy Nzechukwu 7 of 18 38% 6 of 15 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 2
Marcus Buchecha 25 of 35 71% 23 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 3 23 of 28
3 Kennedy Nzechukwu 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 11
Marcus Buchecha 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcus Almeida vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nzechukwu (-130); Almeida (+110)

Round 1
There is only one more heavyweight fight tonight, and it is as quintessential “striker vs. grappler” as it gets. Former light heavyweight power puncher Nzechukwu (14-6, 8-6 UFC) would like nothing more than to shut the lights out of ex-One Championship fighter Almeida (5-2, 0-0 UFC). Submission specialist “Buchecha” has recorded all of his wins in Round 1 while his two losses came on the scorecards, and he will hope he does not earn a third defeat tonight. The third man in the cage for this clash that could go anywhere will be referee Herb Dean. The big men bump fists.
Almeida strikes first with a body kick, and he uses it to close in on the Fortis MMA fighter to pursue a single. Nzechukwu sees it coming from a mile away and hops to the side to stop it. They feint and fake at one another, with Nzechukwu staying extremely low expecting another shot. It comes, and “Buchecha” wrangles Nzechukwu to his knees and slips around to briefly take his back standing. Nzechukwu rolls over the moment that Almeida drops down to pursue a leglock, and he gets his leg far enough out so that he is not in danger. While waiting for Almeida to knock it off, Nzechukwu hammers the back of his thigh with powerful elbows. Nzechukwu bursts back to his feet by rushing towards the wall and walking up it, and Almeida clings to him from behind for a possible mat return. Almeida transitions from a double to a single and gets it, stepping right into half guard. Nzechukwu scoots back upright again, only for Almeida to chuck him back to the mat like a side of beef.
This time, Almeida takes his back, and he hooks up a partial body triangle but lets it go to maintain control when Nzechukwu starts to scramble. Nzechukwu crawls to the fencing and back upright, and he keeps himself afloat while Almeida wrestles him from behind. With Nzechukwu’s back to the wall, Almeida leans on him until Nzechukwu turns him around. Nzechukwu plants a knee square on the groin, clacking off the cup with an audible popping sound as Dean instantly calls time. Almeida wanders to a neutral corner and drops to a crouch, grimacing as he massages his sore groin. He stands back up and drapes his arms over the cage to try to get his wind back. Jostling his cup around, he is good to go after about a minute. Dean tells Nzechukwu to keep it clean, and they get back to business. Nzechukwu drives home a right hand around the guard, backing Almeida up but getting his lead leg grabbed in the single attempt from “Buchecha.” Nzechukwu hops around and manages to get out of it, and Almeida sells out for a sacrifice throw and falls to his back. Nzechukwu drops down on top of his foe to land hammerfists until Almeida is about to scramble, so Nzechukwu abandons ship and stands back up. Nzechukwu times a crisp knee on the jaw, and he starts laying into Almeida with power punches. The Fortis MMA-trained athlete drops Almeida with his punch combination and opens a cut on the cheek, and as he is battering the former One athlete, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu

Round 2
The fighters clap hands, but as soon as they do, Nzechukwu grabs his opponent’s hand and jacks him in the jaw with his other. Almeida backs off, and he suddenly shoots in for a takedown. As he ducks in to change levels, Nzechukwu inadvertently pokes him in one if not both eyes. “Buchecha” falls over to his back, and the commentary booth quizzically wonders whether he injured himself during the shot. The replay shows Nzechukwu’s fingers jamming into both of his opponent’s eyes, and he needs the doctor to come in so he can wipe his eye out with a cloth. Almeida is clearly compromised from it and none too thrilled by the foul, and he blows his nose in frustration. While Almeida recovers, Dean sighs heavily and brings Nzechukwu to the center of the cage to deduct a point. After three minutes pass, the round resumes with less than 30 seconds gone on the timer. Nzechukwu reintroduces himself with a clubbing left hand on the temple, and he goes for another but misses the mark. When he tries a third, Almeida changes levels to shoot in on his hips. Nzechukwu backs off to lean on the fence to keep his balance, and Almeida circles around from behind to hold on and possibly wrest him to the mat. Almeida breaks off, gets off a right hand and then falls over lobbing a kick. Nzechukwu races after him and starts bombarding him when Almeida stands, and Almeida topples over to his back. Nzechukwu signals for him to get back up, so Almeida answers him and sprints forward to tackle Nzechukwu to the floor. During the ensuing scramble, “Buchecha” secures back control, and this time he hooks up a low body triangle.
Rather than attack from the back, Almeida attempts to slither over to get mount, all while searching for an arm-triangle setup. He manages to get into full mount and starts hammering his opponent with elbows and powerful punches. Nzechukwu shells up to defend his face, but “Buchecha” is slowly pummeling him. Almeida chooses his strikes carefully rather than blowing out his gas tank going for broke, but this means that Dean just watches on as Nzechukwu blocks the worst of the strikes. The impact is still noteworthy, and Almeida picks up on volume and intensity as he tries to drum Nzechukwu out of there. Before gassing himself, he transitions to an armbar with seconds left in the round. He falls to his back to lock the limb lock down, but time expires before he can land it completely.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Almeida
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Almeida
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Almeida

Round 3
To pick up where he left off, Almeida sells out almost immediately out of the gate for a takedown. He manages to get the fight down, but Nzechukwu is on top of him sitting on his chest. Almeida tries to get hold of Nzechukwu’s ankle for a possible sub, but there is nothing there while a 250-pound man sits on him uncomfortably. Nzechukwu threatens with his own unusual foot lock, but he realizes that he has limbs and can hit the grappler with his elbows. He lands a few, and then tries for his toe hold again before stepping into full mount. Nzechukwu puts his fingers in the fence but pulls them out and apologizes to Dean, who signals that Nzechukwu did not actually grab on it and just pushed off.
Nzechukwu is seated while Almeida has him from behind, and he gets away with a cheeky fence grab while Almeida is looking to get top control. Both men stand, and Almeida pulls guard and gets elbowed square in the face for his effort. Nzechukwu starts pummeling Almeida with strikes until Almeida grabs hold of Nzechukwu’s leg for a leglock of some kind. Nzechukwu pulls his leg out of danger and the two result in an uncomfortable, strange position where Almeida cannot swirl around to get on top because Nzechukwu has his arm hooked around Almeida’s elbow. Almeida rolls over, and Nzechukwu takes his back. Nzechukwu beats down on Almeida until the final horn sounds, and a draw is very much in play because of the point deduction in Round 2.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu (28-28)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Nzechukwu (28-28)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-27 Almeida)

The Official Result
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Almeida is Scored a Unanimous Draw (28-28, 28-28, 28-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Cody picks Buchecha, believing his BJJ will be decisive. He notes Nzechukwu's poor grappling and Buchecha's improved conditioning. He expects Buchecha to get a takedown and submit Nzechukwu, liking the submission prop.

Buchecha by sub +240
"The play for me is Marcus Buchecha."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Lucrative James picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite grappling and the fact that Kennedy Nzechukwu has been submitted multiple times. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's striking advantage but believes Buchecha's takedown ability and submission threat are too strong to ignore. He projects Buchecha as a +120 underdog.

"I'm actually going to come out and pick Marcus Bache here. I just feel like the grappling upside is too much for me to ignore."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Paul also picks Buchecha, citing his world-class jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup against a tall, lanky opponent. He thinks Buchecha's takedown ability and top control will be too much for Nzechukwu, and likes the submission prop.

Buchecha by sub +240
"The plus 240, plus 230 Buchecha by sub is of interest to me in this fight."
LOSS vs Valter Walker
Submission R1 0:54 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Valter Walker 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Valter Walker 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Valter Walker 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Valter Walker 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo thinks Valter Walker can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where his grappling is a problem for Kennedy Nzechukwu. He notes Kennedy can be gunshy and has lost staring contests, while Walker has transformed his body and has back-to-back heel hook finishes. He plans to bet on Walker, monitoring the line movement to find the peak.

Plans to bet on Valter Walker; monitoring line movement to find peak odds.
"Valter is going to be the pick. Plus 180."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Valter Walker to take Kennedy down early and win the first round, but questions Walker's cardio and striking. He believes Walker will gas out, allowing Kennedy to take over in the second and third rounds. He picks Kennedy by second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"I think we see Kennedy and Duku win by second late second round knockout here against Walter Walker. So Kennedy Kennedy KO2."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The host expects Nzechukwu to make it 3-0 at heavyweight by stuffing Walker's takedowns and outworking him on the feet. He notes that Nzechukwu is not a title contender but should win a decision. The pick is based on Nzechukwu's ability to keep the fight standing and outpoint Walker.

"And Zachuku looking to make it 3 and 0 at heavyweight now. And I think he can do it successfully. Is he chockworthy? Probably not, but I think he'll be able to stuff the takedowns of Walker and Badger him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Valter Walker's poor debut against Lucas Brzeski where he looked lost on the feet and had sloppy takedown entries. He notes Nzechukwu's ability to stuff takedowns, referencing his fight with Paul Craig where he shut down 16 attempts. He expects Nzechukwu to survive a first round of danger, then piece up Walker on the feet for a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Kennedy Nachuku over VA Walker. I think VA Walker is pretty good though and in his debut... he looked awful against Lucas Berski."
CANCEL vs Martin Buday
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo initially wanted to pick Martin Buday but changed his mind after rewatching Buday's fight against Andre Arlovski, where Buday struggled to outwork a 45-year-old. He notes Kennedy Nzechukwu has power and takedown defense, and despite being gun-shy at times, he can turn fights around. Angelo picks Kennedy but suggests a prop bet for better value due to the steep odds.

maybe a prop bet here to get some better value
"Kennedy is the pick maybe a prop bet here to get some better value minus 325 seems tough dude."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He believes Martin Buday's game is limited to cage pushing and that Nzechukwu is the much better striker with more power and cardio. He expects a late finish, possibly a third-round KO.

third round KO
"I'll say third round KO for Kennedy and zuku"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nzechukwu. He shares concerns about Nzechukwu's mental fragility but thinks Buday is not the fighter to exploit it. Connor notes that Buday's record is unimpressive and he hasn't faced killers, while Nzechukwu is a good athlete for his size. He warns that Nzechukwu starts slow, which could allow Buday to get comfortable, but ultimately sees Nzechukwu's skills prevailing.

"I kind of have trouble seeing it to be honest... I'll pick in such a crew as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Buday will make the fight close by engaging in the clinch, but Nzechukwu's athleticism advantage and damage once back in space will cause problems. Nzechukwu is expected to win on the scorecards.

decision
"I think budai will make this fight very close by engaging in the clinch But ultimately it'll be the damage of enzu once he gets back out into space that will cause budai problems look for enzu to win this …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, mocking Martin Buday's poor physique and calling him out of shape. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and dynamism will be too much for Buday, and predicts a first-round TKO via big shots. He notes Buday's training with Tom Aspinall but doesn't think it will help.

Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by TKO in round 1
"I'm going with Kennedy as a Chuku. TKO finish round one. Big shots put away Martin Bedair."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picks Nzechukwu, noting he is more technical, diverse, and athletic than Buday. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's confidence issues and tendency to get scared off by aggression, but believes Buday's slow, steady pressure won't overwhelm him. Zane points out that Buday is durable but not powerful, and Nzechukwu has many options to win, though he could still lose if Buday just leans on him.

Nzechukwu opened -274, now -336; Buday opened +219, now +292. Zane says the line is too wide.
"I'll pick in such a crew as well, but it flies in the face of the dadliness theory of heavyweight and I won't be at all surprised if Budai just gets out there grabs him and mashes him on the …"
TKO (punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting he is a massive heavyweight with an 83-inch reach, decent takedown defense, and power. He believes Nzechukwu's physicality and power will overwhelm Brzeski, who is chinny and coming off a knockout loss. Angelo mentions Nzechukwu is not a true heavyweight but looked fine in his last fight. He considers the odds of -500 fair and might include Nzechukwu in a parlay.

Might throw in a parlay
"Kennedy should win here... minus 500 seems fair to me I might honestly throw that in a parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach, and power advantage. He notes Brzeski's poor record and suspect chin. He expects Nzechukwu to win by knockout, though he acknowledges heavyweight volatility.

"I think Kennedy kills him... he goes out there and romps him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu confidently, noting that Brzeski cannot take shots and has low output. He points out that Nzechukwu is huge and can build into a fight, and that Brzeski does not have the power or volume to hurt him early. Connor believes Nzechukwu's size and durability will be too much for Brzeski.

Connor says the odds are too wide but Brzeski is not good, so it doesn't matter.
"I don't think it's in such a cool even on a bad night... I think he can handle that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and skill advantage at heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and southpaw stance will be key, and expects a knockout given Brzeski's recent losses. He notes Nzechukwu's improved durability without the weight cut.

by KO
"I'm going to go Kennedy and Zetu to win the first fight of the night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu is never really super reliable as a -500 favorite, but I expect him to touch up Brzeski from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round.

knockout in rounds 2-3
"I expect him to touch up dry from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul picks Nzechukwu, citing his physical advantages and Brzeski's lack of skills. He notes Nzechukwu's move to heavyweight and improved comfort. He expects a dominant win, but warns against heavy betting due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"Kennedy Nzechukwu... I think he goes out there and romps him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach advantage, and skill difference on the feet. He thinks Nzechukwu will be bigger and more skilled than Brzeski, who is a smaller heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu will win and could go far in the division.

"I'm going with Kennedy as a chukwu this was supposed to be someone called talison toera versus Lucas Bersy however Kennedy Nuku steps in on short note"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane agrees, picking Nzechukwu. He notes that Brzeski is a low-output volume fighter who cannot take shots, and that Nzechukwu is a giant who can come back into fights. Zane believes Brzeski will not be able to do enough damage to stop Nzechukwu from finding his rhythm.

"Agreed that's really it."
WIN vs Chris Barnett
TKO (knee to the body and punches) R1 4:27 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 51 of 74 68% 51 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Barnett 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 51 of 74 68% 51 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Barnett 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 51 of 74 68% 28 of 50 22 of 23 1 of 1 50 of 73 0 of 0 1 of 1
Chris Barnett 12 of 34 35% 3 of 22 2 of 3 7 of 9 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 51 of 74 68% 28 of 50 22 of 23 1 of 1 50 of 73 0 of 0 1 of 1
Chris Barnett 12 of 34 35% 3 of 22 2 of 3 7 of 9 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu but is very hesitant. He notes Kennedy is taller, longer, and had a full camp, but warns that Kennedy 'kind of sucks' and was a massive favorite who lost to an older opponent in his last fight. He advises staying far away from betting on this fight due to the risk.

Stay far away from this fight; no bet recommended.
"I'm going to pick Kennedy he should win... but leave it the hell alone."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Nzechukwu, noting his significant size advantage (6'5" vs 5'9" on paper, but Barnett is likely shorter). He believes Kennedy has many ways to win: knockout, submission, or decision. He acknowledges Kennedy can be inconsistent but cannot pick Barnett. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I think he does look minus 750 with a second round submission so I'll take Kennedy to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his massive reach and height advantage. He notes that Barnett is old, overweight, and has low volume. Cody believes Nzechukwu's length and striking will keep Barnett at range, and that he will win by knockout in the second round. However, he warns that heavyweight fights are unpredictable.

"I got Kenny at the number"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a total mess who can't consistently win rounds. He notes that Nzechukwu has the size to dominate but lacks confidence, but against Barnett, he should be able to use his reach and size to win. Connor is not confident in Nzechukwu long-term but sees this as a favorable matchup.

"Yeah, I guess I'm with you, but I do not think, no, I don't think in such a cool long-term, like the data is not there. It just doesn't have the confidence to be a heavyweight. You gotta be a …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Daniel Vreeland is taking the huge underdog Chris Barnett. He argues that Nzechukwu has awful cardio, no motivation to come in shape now that he doesn't have to cut weight, and gets knocked out. Barnett is a heavy puncher who has won two of his last three by knockout, and Vreeland sees value at +500.

"Chris Barnett you at plus 500 let's make this the fourth week in a row that I hit a plus 400 or better"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel Vreeland picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win, citing massive advantages in size, reach, and level of competition. He notes that Barnett does not belong in the UFC and that Nzechukwu can win easily by takedown or striking. Vreeland believes the true price is around -900 and that Nzechukwu is a much worse matchup for Barnett than Junior Tafa.

"Kennedy's you know bigger better like an actual fighter"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Jeff Fox is reluctantly picking Nzechukwu, pushed into a corner by Vreeland's strong argument for Barnett. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's cardio issues and lack of motivation but still believes he is better than Barnett's previous opponents. Fox seems uncomfortable with the pick but sticks with Nzechukwu.

"I just can't I can't stand here and let somebody talk about that Kennedy and zugu is much better than insert most UFC have"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu is a big favorite but tough to trust after his last performance. He should keep Barnett at bay and possibly find a finish after the 1.5 round mark. However, minus 700 is a bit too wide for comfort.

Nzechukwu wins by finish after 1.5 rounds; odds -700 considered too wide
"I do expect him to keep Barnett at Bay possibly find a finish over the one and a half round mark but I do think that en zuku wins this fight minus 700 is just a little bit too wide"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a freak show fighter past his prime. He notes that Nzechukwu's reach and volume will be too much, and that Barnett's durability is questionable. Paul is confident Nzechukwu wins but avoids betting at heavy odds.

"Kennedy should have absolutely the volume the skill the reach"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Barnett's long layoff (over two years), age (38), and questionable conditioning. He believes Nzechukwu's athleticism and range will allow him to pick apart Barnett. He notes Barnett's past fight cancellations and weight issues. The Guru predicts Nzechukwu will win by decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Kennedy Nzechukwu I think it'll take an athletic heavyweight with some pop behind his shots to put away Kennedy Nzechukwu."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picks Nzechukwu despite his lack of power and confidence, because Barnett is a tiny heavyweight with no real tools besides confidence. Nzechukwu's size and reach will allow him to crowd Barnett and overwhelm him, though he expects a messy fight. Zane notes that Barnett has lost to other former light heavyweights and lacks durability.

"I'm going to pick him against Chris Barnett. I mean, it's very comical that we, we're talking about how he's more than big enough to be a big heavyweight. And his first opponent in the division is going to be …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picked Nzechukwu, noting that Barnett is a fun fighter but not going to beat big heavyweights. He highlighted that Barnett injured his leg in the pre-fight intro and further during a wheel kick, which was predictable given his rushed recovery from an Achilles injury. Zane praised Nzechukwu's size and form but questioned his confidence, suggesting he may struggle against other big heavyweights.

"if he's fighting guys like barnet i'm gonna pick him every time because barnet is a ton of fun and a fun mean fighter but he's not gonna beat big heavyweights"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 1 143 of 276 51% 143 of 276 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 106 of 250 42% 106 of 250 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ovince Saint Preux 0 44 of 79 55% 44 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 29 of 80 36% 29 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ovince Saint Preux 1 73 of 140 52% 73 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 55 of 113 48% 55 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 143 of 276 51% 98 of 223 32 of 39 13 of 14 131 of 262 11 of 13 1 of 1
Kennedy Nzechukwu 106 of 250 42% 85 of 213 19 of 35 2 of 2 93 of 235 13 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 26 of 57 45% 10 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kennedy Nzechukwu 22 of 57 38% 14 of 37 6 of 18 2 of 2 22 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ovince Saint Preux 44 of 79 55% 30 of 62 10 of 12 4 of 5 44 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 80 36% 25 of 73 4 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ovince Saint Preux 73 of 140 52% 58 of 123 15 of 17 0 of 0 61 of 126 11 of 13 1 of 1
Kennedy Nzechukwu 55 of 113 48% 46 of 103 9 of 10 0 of 0 43 of 99 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo calls this his most confident pick on the card. Nzechukwu is long, powerful, has solid takedown defense, and is never out of a fight, though he can be gun-shy. Saint Preux is 40, has no chin, and is frustratingly low-volume, rarely letting his hands go. Angelo sees no path to victory for Saint Preux outside a Hail Mary bomb, which is unlikely given his low output. He thinks Nzechukwu will win easily.

"the pick is quite frankly very easy to be Kennedy here and he's my most confident pick on this entire card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by first-round knockout. He believes OSP is past his prime and not motivated, while Nzechukwu is a big favorite for a reason. He expects a quick finish despite Nzechukwu's history of weird outcomes.

by first round knockout
"Give me Kennedy here Kennedy to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, believing OSP is completely washed and on his way out. He details OSP's decline: missing weight, looking flat, and being knocked out in recent fights. He acknowledges Kennedy's chin issues but thinks OSP lacks the power to exploit them. He warns against the minus 500 line but still picks Kennedy.

"I'd go with Kennedy because I really do think OSP is completely washed... he's on the back nine."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Lucrative James sees Kennedy Nzechukwu as a massive favorite and expects him to finish the fight. He notes that OSP has looked washed recently, with poor cardio and chin, and that Kennedy can knock him out on the feet, with elbows, or in the clinch. He dismisses OSP's chances, stating that the only way OSP wins is if Kennedy makes a huge mistake.

Kennedy Nzechukwu by finish
"I think Kennedy's gonna finish this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The host notes that Saint Preux is nearing 41 and fighting a young, hungry fighter in Nzechukwu, who should have speed and power advantages. He expects Nzechukwu to light up Saint Preux early and get a TKO, but mentions that the -500 or -700 odds are too much given the weight class and Saint Preux's experience. He still thinks the under 1.5 rounds should come through easily.

under 1.5 rounds
"I think that will see en zuku light up same prw early and eventually get him out of there by TKO minus 500 orus 700 is a little bit too much for me"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul also picks Kennedy, echoing that OSP is done. He notes Kennedy's physical advantages (size, speed, reach) and OSP's inability to take punches anymore. He calls it an 'apple pie situation' where fading OSP is tempting but warns about Kennedy's own flaws. He still expects Kennedy to win.

"I would definitely take Kenny Nzechukwu in this fight but minus 500 screams... we're fading OSP being so bad."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO, citing OSP's age (40) and recent KO loss to Philipe Lins. He notes Nzechukwu is chinny but has youth and momentum. He dismisses OSP's win over Shogun as controversial and believes Nzechukwu will get the finish.

TKO win
"I'm going to go Nuku gets a TKO win here although he is maybe the chest fighter in UFC history I'm going to trust him to win against ENT St PR in 2024."
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
TKO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 1 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 10 of 33 30% 5 of 28 0 of 0 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 7
Kennedy Nzechukwu 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 33 30% 5 of 28 0 of 0 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 7
Kennedy Nzechukwu 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging Dustin Jacoby is the better striker. He notes that Kennedy is bigger, more dangerous, and has fought higher competition. He warns that Kennedy is never out of a fight and can come from behind, but also mentions that Jacoby was dropped in his last fight, which is concerning. Angelo admits he would love Jacoby as an underdog if not for that, but ultimately goes with Kennedy's danger factor.

"the pick's gonna be Kennedy but I'm going to be rooting for Dustin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady is uncertain but leans toward Nzechukwu. He argues that if Nzechukwu strikes with Jacoby he'll lose, but his path to victory is wrestling. He notes Nzechukwu's takedown defense is good and his grappling has improved, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Nzechukwu can take Jacoby down and control him, especially since Jacoby has been taken down many times before. He predicts a decision win but admits Nzechukwu fights are hard to predict.

Nzechukwu by decision
"I'll pick him to win by decision but the more I think about this one the more I don't feel amazing about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody leans towards Nzechukwu on the moneyline, but his main interest is a small poke on Kennedy by submission at +950. He believes Kennedy will rely on grappling and can submit Jacoby, who has faced few grapplers. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing base and cardio, but thinks Kennedy's improvements in grappling and size could be decisive.

Kennedy by submission +950 (small poke)
"I see like a plus 950 on Kennedy by sub... I'm probably gonna take a little small poke on that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel Levi leans toward Kennedy Nzechukwu but is not confident. He acknowledges Jacoby's striking credentials and past success, but worries about Jacoby's age (35-36) and potential decline. Levi notes Nzechukwu's physical advantages (7-inch reach, southpaw) and his knack for comebacks, but also his slow starts and durability concerns. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers Nzechukwu at the current price, though he would have picked Jacoby two years ago.

Mentions that he would take a comeback at dog odds but not at -150. No specific prop bet.
"I'm gonna lean Kennedy but it's a tough fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

James changed his mind after tape. He thinks Nzechukwu is younger, more athletic, and on an upward trajectory while Jacoby is declining. Nzechukwu's height and reach advantage will disrupt Jacoby's outside kickboxing game. He expects Nzechukwu to force pressure, clinch, and possibly finish inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I think Kennedy will win this fight... probably even inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby loves combination striking, leg kicks, and body work. He had a 6-1-1 run until a split decision loss to Khalil Rountree and a bad KO loss. If he can stay safe and not get dropped, he should outpoint Nzechukwu, who is explosive but wears down. Jacoby's durability is a concern, but I'm sticking with Jacoby as a dog shot. He wins by decision.

"I'm going to stick with Jacoby here's the dog shot I think he's worth the play here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul takes Jacoby at plus money, citing his volume, leg kicks, and takedown defense. He notes Kennedy's suspect cardio and tendency to get rocked, and believes Jacoby can outland him in a kickboxing match. However, he acknowledges Jacoby's fights are often close decisions and only takes him at plus money.

"I'll take a dog poke here at Dustin Jacoby at the slight plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The host picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his youth (31), durability, and recent momentum. He believes Nzechukwu will out-volume Jacoby and has a granite chin. He notes Jacoby is 35 and coming off a loss. He thinks Nzechukwu wins by decision but could finish. He warns that if the line goes above -165, value shifts to Jacoby.

line opened -126, now -156; suggests decision win for Nzechukwu; value on Jacoby if line exceeds -165
"I gotta lean Kennedy and shaku in the spot"
WIN vs Devin Clark
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:28 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 62 of 81 76% 79 of 98 0 of 1 0% 1 0 3:42
Devin Clark 0 36 of 58 62% 61 of 90 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 41 of 53 77% 54 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:35
Devin Clark 0 25 of 37 67% 47 of 65 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
2 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 21 of 28 75% 25 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:07
Devin Clark 0 11 of 21 52% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 62 of 81 76% 44 of 63 18 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 17 53 of 64 0 of 0
Devin Clark 36 of 58 62% 25 of 46 7 of 8 4 of 4 13 of 28 23 of 30 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 41 of 53 77% 34 of 46 7 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 3 39 of 50 0 of 0
Devin Clark 25 of 37 67% 18 of 29 3 of 4 4 of 4 5 of 10 20 of 27 0 of 0
2 Kennedy Nzechukwu 21 of 28 75% 10 of 17 11 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 14 14 of 14 0 of 0
Devin Clark 11 of 21 52% 7 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting his length, power, and ability to come back from behind. He compares this fight to Kennedy's last win where he lost the first round before knocking out Jan Kutulaba. Angelo is hesitant because Kennedy can be a slow starter and gun-shy, which could allow Devin Clark to grind out early rounds. However, he believes Kennedy hits too hard and is never out of a fight, expecting a finish similar to his last performance.

"I've got to go Kennedy and chuckle here right well Devin could have some early success wrestling... Kennedy Just Hits too hard"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Nzechukwu, citing his massive size and reach advantages. He notes Nzechukwu is finally putting it together, showing improved grappling and takedown defense. He believes Clark will struggle with the reach and power, and Nzechukwu's get-up game is excellent. He predicts a second-round knockout, as Nzechukwu starts slow but finishes strong.

Second round knockout prediction
"I like Kennedy here I like Kennedy to start slow... I think he finishes Devin Clark in that second or third round by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Cody sees value in Clark at plus money, noting his cardio and cage control are his best weapons. He believes Clark can press Nzechukwu against the fence, use outside trips to take him down, and grind out a win. He points out that Nzechukwu has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and Clark's style is perfectly suited to exploit that.

Live betting on Clark after first round
"I'm gonna go with the first option which is uh he holds on to him against the cage and wins two of the three rounds"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu more confidently, arguing that Nzechukwu has a plan and can use pressure striking and reach, not just clinching. He notes Devin Clark has no technical foundation and relies on physicality, but Nzechukwu can adapt and find moments. Connor acknowledges Clark is tough and strong, but Nzechukwu should be able to outwork him.

Nzechukwu opened at -217, now -180; Clark opened +182, now +163.
"I do have to pick the Chukwu. He's a fighter with a plan and Devin Clark isn't."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The host picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by late first round stoppage. He believes Nzechukwu's improved striking and power will overcome Devin Clark's grappling. He notes Clark's durability issues and expects Nzechukwu to land big shots after a potentially sticky early grappling exchange.

Nzechukwu by stoppage, round 1
"I'm going to go in zatsuku here by late first round stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Paul also picks Clark, having bet him at +180. He notes Clark's chin concerns are overblown, as he's shown durability in recent fights. He expects Clark to use his wrestling and pressure to control the fight, similar to his win over Jung. He thinks the line is too wide.

"I took a shot at plus 180 on Devin Clark not exactly my favorite fighter historically I just thought the line is a little bit wide"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and range advantage over Clark. He believes Nzechukwu will pick at Clark on the feet and land knees as Clark closes distance. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's questionable chin (KO by Dalton Young) but thinks Clark's wrestling won't be effective due to Nzechukwu's size. He predicts a TKO in the later rounds.

TKO in later rounds
"I'm gonna side with nazochukwu over Devon Clark ... I'm going with him by TKO in the later rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picks Nzechukwu but is hesitant because Nzechukwu is not a range fighter and may struggle to avoid Clark's physicality. He notes Clark is beatable if you don't fight his fight, but Nzechukwu tends to clinch and pressure, which could play into Clark's strengths. However, Nzechukwu gets stronger as fights go on and Clark is not a finisher, giving Nzechukwu time to grow into the fight.

Nzechukwu opened at -217, now -180; Clark opened +182, now +163; odds tightening.
"I'm going to pick the Chukwu because he does get stronger as fights go on and Clark is not a finisher."
Łukasz Brzeski - Fight History
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Submission R1 2:47 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."
TKO (punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting he is a massive heavyweight with an 83-inch reach, decent takedown defense, and power. He believes Nzechukwu's physicality and power will overwhelm Brzeski, who is chinny and coming off a knockout loss. Angelo mentions Nzechukwu is not a true heavyweight but looked fine in his last fight. He considers the odds of -500 fair and might include Nzechukwu in a parlay.

Might throw in a parlay
"Kennedy should win here... minus 500 seems fair to me I might honestly throw that in a parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach, and power advantage. He notes Brzeski's poor record and suspect chin. He expects Nzechukwu to win by knockout, though he acknowledges heavyweight volatility.

"I think Kennedy kills him... he goes out there and romps him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu confidently, noting that Brzeski cannot take shots and has low output. He points out that Nzechukwu is huge and can build into a fight, and that Brzeski does not have the power or volume to hurt him early. Connor believes Nzechukwu's size and durability will be too much for Brzeski.

Connor says the odds are too wide but Brzeski is not good, so it doesn't matter.
"I don't think it's in such a cool even on a bad night... I think he can handle that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and skill advantage at heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and southpaw stance will be key, and expects a knockout given Brzeski's recent losses. He notes Nzechukwu's improved durability without the weight cut.

by KO
"I'm going to go Kennedy and Zetu to win the first fight of the night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu is never really super reliable as a -500 favorite, but I expect him to touch up Brzeski from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round.

knockout in rounds 2-3
"I expect him to touch up dry from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul picks Nzechukwu, citing his physical advantages and Brzeski's lack of skills. He notes Nzechukwu's move to heavyweight and improved comfort. He expects a dominant win, but warns against heavy betting due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"Kennedy Nzechukwu... I think he goes out there and romps him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach advantage, and skill difference on the feet. He thinks Nzechukwu will be bigger and more skilled than Brzeski, who is a smaller heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu will win and could go far in the division.

"I'm going with Kennedy as a chukwu this was supposed to be someone called talison toera versus Lucas Bersy however Kennedy Nuku steps in on short note"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane agrees, picking Nzechukwu. He notes that Brzeski is a low-output volume fighter who cannot take shots, and that Nzechukwu is a giant who can come back into fights. Zane believes Brzeski will not be able to do enough damage to stop Nzechukwu from finding his rhythm.

"Agreed that's really it."
LOSS vs Mick Parkin
KO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.

"Mick Parkin one of the most confident picks on the card this fight's going to suck though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.

"Give me Mick parin again probably by decision but who knows man maybe you see a new wrinkle to his game and he submits brusi late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.

"I'm gonna go with Mick Park and that come out here here and uh outwork him like all these other guys have"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.

"Parkin will have like a at least a 30 pound on fighting I probably like a 40 pound advantage over breski... make it ugly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

"Michael Parkin is going to beat up on Lucas berski chew up his legs mix in the grappling when he needs to as well because his grappling is really underrated"
WIN vs Valter Walker
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Łukasz Brzeski 0 33 of 67 49% 56 of 101 4 of 5 80% 0 1 7:19
Valter Walker 0 58 of 102 56% 135 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Łukasz Brzeski 0 12 of 18 66% 21 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:16
Valter Walker 0 16 of 27 59% 52 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Łukasz Brzeski 0 16 of 35 45% 17 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:58
Valter Walker 0 32 of 56 57% 39 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
3 Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 14 35% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 1 3:05
Valter Walker 0 10 of 19 52% 44 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Łukasz Brzeski 33 of 67 49% 19 of 50 6 of 8 8 of 9 23 of 53 2 of 5 8 of 9
Valter Walker 58 of 102 56% 27 of 70 16 of 17 15 of 15 55 of 96 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Łukasz Brzeski 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 7
Valter Walker 16 of 27 59% 4 of 15 4 of 4 8 of 8 16 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Łukasz Brzeski 16 of 35 45% 9 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 4 15 of 31 1 of 4 0 of 0
Valter Walker 32 of 56 57% 19 of 42 8 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 14 35% 1 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
Valter Walker 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo picks Valter Walker with high confidence, noting that Walker is massive (6'6") and a wrestler who should dominate by coming forward and ragdolling Łukasz Brzeski. He acknowledges that Walker's striking is miserable and he eats shots, but believes heavyweights are not used to a 6'6" Brazilian charging at them with wrestling. He expects the UFC to fast-track Walker.

"Valter is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady picks Valter Walker by decision, despite being unimpressed with Walker. He notes that Walker is huge, a solid wrestler, and can get fights to the mat. He cannot pick Łukasz Brzeski to win any UFC fight due to poor takedown defense and cardio. He expects a grinding decision with no finish.

win by decision
"give me Walker I'm actually taking Walker by the decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Cody also picks Walker, noting that Brzeski has been taken down 8 times by Karl Williams. He thinks Walker's wrestling and size advantage will be key, and that if Walker sticks to takedowns and top control, he should win. Cody is wary of Walker's UFC debut but believes the matchup favors him.

"I'll go against where the market has been moving and I'll pick volter Walker with you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Walker is a more complete fighter than his brother Johnny, with solid striking and underrated wrestling. He can take opponents down and grind them out. Brzeski is on a losing streak and has struggled against grapplers. Walker's size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight and win by decision.

Walker by decision
"I'm going to go Walker here I think he grinds this fight out over 15 minutes and gets his hand raised mainly with a grapple heavy Style on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Paul picks Walker but is hesitant due to question marks. He likes Walker's size, athleticism, and grappling, and notes Brzeski has been taken down repeatedly by wrestlers like Karl Williams. Paul thinks Walker can take Brzeski down, make him carry weight, and gas him out. He acknowledges Walker is unproven but sees a clear path to victory via wrestling and top control.

"I do have volter Walker... he is the pick 100% and there will be a play on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The host identifies Walker as Johnny Walker's brother, noting he is 6'6", 26 years old, with an 81.5-inch reach. He highlights Walker's dynamic striking (front kicks, head kicks, spinning backfists) and good double-leg takedowns. He recalls a clip of Walker grappling with Johnny Walker, showing good sweeps and butterfly guard. He acknowledges Walker has a chin but is confident in his skills.

"I'm going with wter Walker I don't know if you guys know who this guy is I'm about to tell you who he is"
KO (punches) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 15 of 45 33% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Łukasz Brzeski 0 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 15 of 45 33% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Łukasz Brzeski 0 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 45 33% 9 of 36 3 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 14 of 22 63% 1 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 12 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 45 33% 9 of 36 3 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 14 of 22 63% 1 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 12 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo is very confident in Waldo, citing his striking and athleticism being far ahead of Brzeski. He notes that Brzeski turns his head and reacts too much to strikes. The only concern is leg kicks, as Waldo has been hurt by them before, but he still believes Waldo wins. He includes Waldo in a two-fighter parlay with Bedoya.

Included in a two-fighter parlay with Rolando Bedoya
"I'm very confident in Waldo here I think Waldo gets the done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady notes that Waldo Cortes Acosta has holes in his game, including susceptibility to leg kicks and takedowns, but he doesn't trust Łukasz Brzeski's cardio, as Brzeski looks tired after 60 seconds. He expects a sloppy fight with Brzeski gassing early, allowing Acosta to land bigger shots and win a decision. He cautions against betting Acosta at heavy odds.

decision
"give me him to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Cody picks Brzeski as an underdog, noting his durability and volume striking. He thinks Cortes Acosta lacks power and Brzeski can outwork him. Cody also mentions the fight likely goes the distance and likes the over.

fight goes to decision; over 61.5 significant strikes for Cortes Acosta
"I'll take the underdog shot on verchowski"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism and baseball background. He notes that Brzeski is tough but lacks finishing upside. He mentions that Acosta has a good jab and better hands, though he is vulnerable to calf kicks. He thinks Acosta wins by striking and has a cardio edge. He is confident but notes it's heavyweight and anything can happen.

"I think Waldo is the better athlete I think he's got the more upside and I think there's a good bounce back fight for him so for that reason Mike I'm gonna pick him to win this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

James picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by decision, though he acknowledges Brzeski is the value side. He notes Acosta has decent offensive tools but poor defense and leg kick vulnerability. He sees Acosta's speed and athleticism as advantages, and expects him to outpoint Brzeski over three rounds.

"I'm picking Cortez to win I think he probably just wins another decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host defends Cortes Acosta, praising his conditioning, jab, and volume. He notes that Cortes Acosta lost his last fight due to leg kicks and takedowns from Marcos de Lima, but showed good cardio in the third round. The host criticizes Brzeski's takedown defense and regional competition, but acknowledges the line is wide and suggests waiting for a better price. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

"I still think that Cortez Acosta gets back to his winning ways gets back to doing what he does best and really putting volume and pressure on his opponents with his jab give me Cortez Acosta to win by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Cortes Acosta to win by decision, noting his volume striking and boxing. He likes the over on significant strikes for Cortes Acosta. Paul is not confident in the price but thinks Cortes Acosta should win.

Cortes Acosta by decision; over 61.5 significant strikes for Cortes Acosta
"Cortez by decision and then yeah over 61.5 significant strikes for Waldo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Łukasz Brzeski, citing Brzeski's lack of grappling and decline in physical shape after a failed drug test. He notes Acosta's size advantage (15-20 pounds) and better boxing with more sting on his shots. He acknowledges Acosta's vulnerability to leg kicks but doubts Brzeski will exploit it. He predicts Acosta's well-rounded boxing and size will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go Waldo Cortez Acosta I don't like that he doesn't deal with leg kicks well but I don't think bursky's going to expose that"
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 1 38 of 58 65% 120 of 168 8 of 13 61% 0 0 10:13
Łukasz Brzeski 0 26 of 46 56% 49 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 16 of 24 66% 19 of 27 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 13 of 23 56% 28 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Karl Williams 1 12 of 23 52% 36 of 59 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:42
Łukasz Brzeski 0 7 of 14 50% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Karl Williams 0 10 of 11 90% 65 of 82 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:17
Łukasz Brzeski 0 6 of 9 66% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 38 of 58 65% 31 of 50 4 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 34 2 of 5 14 of 19
Łukasz Brzeski 26 of 46 56% 19 of 39 5 of 5 2 of 2 22 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 16 of 24 66% 11 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 3 15 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 13 of 23 56% 10 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Karl Williams 12 of 23 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 1 of 2 5 of 10
Łukasz Brzeski 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Karl Williams 10 of 11 90% 9 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 6 of 9 66% 3 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.

"I'm going to be leaning Lucas here I think he's I'm gonna avoid some bets after all this is heavyweight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.

win by decision
"I'm leaning Carl Williams here by decision I think it's a good spot for him and I think he gets it done here by decision against Lucas breski"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.

"sign me up for bresky as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.

Brzeski opened at -170, now +182; Williams opened +145, now -226. Connor is surprised by the line movement favoring Williams.
"I'm taking the pole. I said that before you really delayed that. I'm taking Wukash."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.

"I think that Williams will more than likely grind this fight out over 15 minutes once again getting his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.

"Lucas brzewski is a live money Underdog this week for sure and and I will take him as the official selection"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.

by decision
"I'm going to trust in him to out hustle Carl Williams to a 29-28 decision after a rough start in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.

"I'm taking Wukash."
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 66 of 188 35% 66 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 118 of 273 43% 124 of 280 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 41 of 104 39% 47 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Martin Buday 0 19 of 55 34% 19 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 43 of 89 48% 43 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Martin Buday 0 22 of 70 31% 22 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 34 of 80 42% 34 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 66 of 188 35% 50 of 169 3 of 6 13 of 13 65 of 187 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 118 of 273 43% 49 of 182 51 of 69 18 of 22 116 of 268 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 25 of 63 39% 20 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 24 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 41 of 104 39% 19 of 74 16 of 21 6 of 9 39 of 99 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 19 of 55 34% 14 of 50 1 of 1 4 of 4 19 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 43 of 89 48% 18 of 59 15 of 20 10 of 10 43 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 22 of 70 31% 16 of 63 2 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 34 of 80 42% 12 of 49 20 of 28 2 of 3 34 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.

Will use Buday in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"ultimately i am going to go with bidet here because i think his power is gonna be the difference i don't like him at two to one odds so i'm not gonna have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.

second round finish
"i'm going to say he does win by second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.

"i gotta go with the the bigger of the heavyweights to get it done and that's the slovakian prospect"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.

"Give me the real heavyweight Martin Buday in that one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Martin Buday

The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.

Buday inside the distance -110; Buday round 2 +550 (on FanDuel).
"i went straight on the uh uh round two plus 550 on fanduel hit that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as moved to -175); looking for over 2.5 or fight goes to decision
"i kind of like the early the early er numbers on the over one and a half rounds that were available but now that it's jacked up to minus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.

third round TKO due to exhaustion
"i'm going to go over martin bidet third round tko mainly due to the exhaustion of lucas bursky"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting he is a massive heavyweight with an 83-inch reach, decent takedown defense, and power. He believes Nzechukwu's physicality and power will overwhelm Brzeski, who is chinny and coming off a knockout loss. Angelo mentions Nzechukwu is not a true heavyweight but looked fine in his last fight. He considers the odds of -500 fair and might include Nzechukwu in a parlay.

Might throw in a parlay
"Kennedy should win here... minus 500 seems fair to me I might honestly throw that in a parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach, and power advantage. He notes Brzeski's poor record and suspect chin. He expects Nzechukwu to win by knockout, though he acknowledges heavyweight volatility.

"I think Kennedy kills him... he goes out there and romps him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu confidently, noting that Brzeski cannot take shots and has low output. He points out that Nzechukwu is huge and can build into a fight, and that Brzeski does not have the power or volume to hurt him early. Connor believes Nzechukwu's size and durability will be too much for Brzeski.

Connor says the odds are too wide but Brzeski is not good, so it doesn't matter.
"I don't think it's in such a cool even on a bad night... I think he can handle that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and skill advantage at heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and southpaw stance will be key, and expects a knockout given Brzeski's recent losses. He notes Nzechukwu's improved durability without the weight cut.

by KO
"I'm going to go Kennedy and Zetu to win the first fight of the night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu is never really super reliable as a -500 favorite, but I expect him to touch up Brzeski from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round.

knockout in rounds 2-3
"I expect him to touch up dry from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul picks Nzechukwu, citing his physical advantages and Brzeski's lack of skills. He notes Nzechukwu's move to heavyweight and improved comfort. He expects a dominant win, but warns against heavy betting due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"Kennedy Nzechukwu... I think he goes out there and romps him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach advantage, and skill difference on the feet. He thinks Nzechukwu will be bigger and more skilled than Brzeski, who is a smaller heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu will win and could go far in the division.

"I'm going with Kennedy as a chukwu this was supposed to be someone called talison toera versus Lucas Bersy however Kennedy Nuku steps in on short note"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane agrees, picking Nzechukwu. He notes that Brzeski is a low-output volume fighter who cannot take shots, and that Nzechukwu is a giant who can come back into fights. Zane believes Brzeski will not be able to do enough damage to stop Nzechukwu from finding his rhythm.

"Agreed that's really it."