Career Averages - Chase Hooper
Career Averages - Clay Guida
Chase Hooper
Clay Guida
Chase Hooper - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Lance Gibson | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Lance Gibson | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 11 of 32 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lance Gibson | 13 of 22 | 59% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 11 of 32 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lance Gibson | 13 of 22 | 59% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chase Hooper but is not confident, noting that Hooper relies on experience and BJJ, and that he hasn't beaten anyone under 40 in years. He thinks Lance Gibson could win if he wrestles and stays safe. Angelo criticizes the odds, saying Hooper should not be a 3-to-1 favorite.
Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges Hooper's striking deficiencies and recent knockout losses, but believes Hooper's ground game is elite. He notes Hooper has improved his wrestling, taking down Jim Miller eight times and Clay Guida three times. He thinks once Hooper gets the fight to the ground, he will dominate with ground and pound and submissions.
Cody believes Hooper's grappling and improving striking will be too much for Gibson, who he views as a Bellator-level fighter. He expects Hooper to win via submission or decision.
Connor picks Hooper as well, agreeing that Hooper's grappling is dynamite and he is a violent grappler. He thinks Gibson's mentality is not suited for fighting and that Hooper will take advantage.
Daniel believes Hooper's experience and grappling will be too much for Gibson, who he views as not UFC caliber. He expects Hooper to submit Gibson, noting Gibson lacks knockout power to threaten Hooper.
The host believes Hooper is very likely to win due to his improved wrestling and ground game, but the odds (-318) are too steep to bet. Gibson is a volume striker without knockout power, so Hooper should eventually get a takedown and finish. However, there is not enough known about Gibson to bet the underdog, making this an easy pass.
The host likes Hooper's submission game but is wary of the minus 240 line, as he thinks Hooper may struggle to get the fight to the ground against Gibson's athleticism. He suggests Hooper needs to be reckless with striking to create openings for grappling. He predicts Hooper will eventually find a submission but acknowledges the risk.
Paul agrees, noting Hooper's length and grappling advantage. He's not impressed by Gibson's UFC debut and expects Hooper to handle him.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, citing his recent grappling improvements and wins over Jim Miller and Jordan Leavitt. He believes Hooper's grappling will be too much for Lance Gibson Jr., who he considers a name merchant. He expects Hooper to survive early danger and eventually submit or outgrapple Gibson for a decision.
Zane picks Hooper because Hooper knows how to be aggressive and go after submissions, while Gibson seems to avoid fighting. He notes that Gibson's wins are against cans and he shuts down when faced with skill parity.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 20 of 82 | 24% | 20 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 20 of 82 | 24% | 20 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 20 of 82 | 24% | 7 of 62 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 20 of 82 | 24% | 7 of 62 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-345), Hernandez (+275)
Round 1
Getting away from the prelims to the four-bout chunk on the ESPN network, we start with a lightweight clash that pits a young-up-and-comer against someone who used to hold that status before aging out of it. Hooper (16-3-1, 8-3 UFC) is full of things and vinegar at the age of 25 on a five-fight win streak—one shy of a career long. His opponent Hernandez (16-8, 8-7 UFC) has won lately to edge himself above the .500 UFC record line, although a defeat tonight would even him out again. The two men have referee Jason Herzog to thank for how the officiating will play out in the next 15 minutes or fewer, and they opt to bump fists.
Hooper starts off with long front kicks from either limb to the body. The kicks set up one up high, and he chains a spinning back fist into it. Hernandez steps in to kick the body, and Hooper nearly reaches him on the way out with his far longer limbs. Hernandez tries to close the distance again, and Hooper uses his front kick to frustrate his foe. Hernandez manages to get in to score a pair of punches, only to have to back off and wait for Hooper to throw a naked kick to counter with an overhand left. Hernandez sticks out a straight right hand, and Hooper whizzes past him with a combination.
Hernandez sits down on two counterpunches when Hooper kicks at the ribs, and he hurls a big left hand as Hooper shoots in for a single-leg entry. Hernandez breaks out of it and circles away, blocking a chasing strike or two including a spinning back fist. Hooper plants two punches on the jaw, and Hernandez reaches him at the end of a left. Hooper’s front kick is mixed in, and he shoots in low for a takedown and lands on his own face. Hernandez scoots away and lets Hooper back up, and he measures the longer fighter with looping punches out of range. Hernandez connects on a few punches and evades a long right hand, while parrying two subsequent strikes. “The Great Ape” hits with a left, and Hooper partially rolls with it and replies with doubled left hooks.
Hernandez keeps moving from side to side, and he lances a fierce right hand down the middle to separate Hooper from his senses. Hooper collapses to his knees and tries for a desperate takedown to save himself, and Hernandez pounds on him from both sides of the head with seconds to go in the round. As Hooper takes damage, Herzog waves the fight off
, as he does not feel that Hooper should have a few more seconds to ride out the round and recover. Hooper is crestfallen but nods in understanding when informed exactly what happened, while the victorious Hernandez raises his arms and parades around the cage to celebrate.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Chase Hooper R1 4:58 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo notes Hooper has filled out physically, improved his takedowns, and is undefeated at 155. He thinks Hernandez is inconsistent and undersized, and that Hooper's height and BJJ advantage could be key. However, he acknowledges Hernandez's takedown defense and toughness, making this a close fight. He slightly leans Hooper but is not confident.
Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He notes Hernandez struggles with high pace and has been broken in many fights. Hooper is massive, pushes a pace, and will drain Hernandez's gas tank. He thinks Hooper will chain takedowns and submission attempts, finishing Hernandez in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hernandez could hurt Hooper early, but if Hooper gets rolling, it's a bad matchup for Hernandez.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hooper. He notes that Hernandez is a solid wrestler but crumbles under pressure, and that Hooper's aggressive style and confidence will cause Hernandez to fold. He references the Damon Jackson fight as a blueprint for how to beat Hernandez with pressure. He also notes that Hooper's grappling is creative and can create submissions from any position.
The host notes Hooper's recent improvements and chaotic striking approach. He expects Hooper to wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission, likely in the second or third round.
The Guru leans towards Alexander Hernandez, though he expresses some hesitation. He believes Hernandez's explosiveness and body shots will be effective against Chase Hooper. The Guru notes that Hooper's grappling is improved but he lacks damaging ground and pound and often wins by submission threat rather than actual submissions. He worries about Hernandez's close fight with Austin Hubbard but thinks Hernandez will have more moments in the scrambles and on the feet.
Zane picks Hooper, citing Hernandez's tendency to collapse under pressure. He compares Hernandez's fight with Damon Jackson, where Jackson's pressure led to Hernandez crumbling. He notes that Hooper is pathologically aggressive and will put pressure on Hernandez, and that Hooper's grappling is dynamic enough to create submissions even without completing takedowns. He acknowledges the risk of Hooper getting knocked out but believes Hernandez lacks the dog mentality to capitalize.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 22 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 59 of 94 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 10:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 2 | Jim Miller | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 10 of 19 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 | |
| 3 | Jim Miller | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 25 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 4:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 13 of 35 | 37% | 11 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Chase Hooper | 21 of 44 | 47% | 13 of 34 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Chase Hooper | 10 of 21 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jim Miller | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Hooper | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jim Miller | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Hooper | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-800), Miller (+550)
Round 1
While it is understandable, it is still unfortunate that announcer Bruce Buffer declined to shout out Miller’s (38-18, 1 NC; 27-17, 1 NC UFC) preferred nickname that was certainly not “A-10.” We get what we get, so “Expletive Deleted” will have to hold serve for now. The grizzled veteran, one whose name is all over the leaderboards including the most fights (soon to be 46) and the most victories (27 for now), will throw down with a man 16 years his junior. In a contest of old man strength vs. youthful exuberance, Hooper (15-3-1, 7-3 UFC) will represent the latter and will close as an astronomical betting favorite north of -800. Things like 41 and -800 are just numbers to Miller, who will meet Hooper in the center of the cage while referee Kerry Hatley watches on. They do not touch gloves. When Miller plods forward, Hooper backs away and uses his kicks to keep his preferred distance. Hooper suddenly attacks with a swarm of punches, and Miller sits in the pocket and fires back at him. Hooper gets the better of an exchange, and he slides back and clips Miller with a solid right hand. Miller is unfazed and cracks his foe with a left hook, and Hooper punches and shoots low for a single. Miller drops to a knee to defend it, and he wraps up a guillotine choke that forces Hooper to stand. Hooper drops to the floor to roll out of it, and Miller lowers himself down and blasts the youngster in the face with a standing-to-ground left hand. Hooper hunts for a triangle choke, and Miller punches his way out of it and reassumes top position in the guard. “A-10” stacks Hooper up to prevent Hooper from going after anything, and Miller latches on with a guillotine and jumps guard to secure it. Hooper calmly works his neck out of harm’s way, and he finds himself in top. Miller turns over and gives up his back, and Hooper is quick to start hunting for a standing rear-naked choke. Miller leans against the cage to take some of the weight off, and he tries to scrape “The Dream” off of him using the chain links. Hooper has the body triangle wrapped around the waist to remain on Miller’s back, and he hacks at Miller with an elbow. Hooper attempts a neck crank, and Miller bucks and twists to get Hooper off of his back. Hooper hits his back and instantly attacks an armbar, and Miller punches his way out of that and a subsequent triangle setup. Miller nails his man with a big left hand, and he pushes out of a quick triangle that materializes out of nowhere. Miller stands up, and Hooper follows him and pushes out a front kick. One more front kick from Hooper results in him getting caught with an overhand right, and the horn sounds to end the dramatic round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Round 2
Miller starts out the round ready to get in the pocket and exchange, and he scores a solid left hand to back Hooper off. When Hooper presses him, Miller tags him with another left. The youngster chains a front kick into a spinning back fist, and Miller defends against them and allows Hooper to take him down so he can grip hold of a two-on-one wrist lock. Hooper elbows him in the side while Miller clings to the limb, using it to work back to his feet. Hooper takes his back standing and wrenches him to the ground, where he flirts with a rear-naked choke to further control his foe. Miller works his way back to his feet and leans himself on the wire, and Hooper softens him up and is pulled off of Miller’s back, but he sells out for a takedown and lands in side control. After Hooper gets off some strikes, Miller fights to his feet, and he considers a guillotine when Hooper pursues a mat return. Miller lets it go and stands up, and Hooper kicks off the fencing and tosses Miller to his back. Hooper controls Miller from the side and then back, and the two scramble and roll to find themselves in an awkward situation. Hoop looks to lace Miller’s legs and spread them apart for a banana split, and he tugs on Miller’s foot to further hold on tight. Miller survives this and makes it to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Round 3
Hooper wants to take the fight down to begin the final round, with Miller wearing it after 10 minutes of combat. The control of Hooper starts to take over, as he latches on the elder statesman’s back and wrangles him to the floor. Hooper again pursues a leglock from a strange angle, and Miller’s knee is trapped in a precarious predicament. They remain stuck in a 50-50 of sorts, with a possible twister or other unorthodox submission coming together. Miller on his back, has his legs caught between Hooper’s, and his torso is about to turn the wrong direction until Hooper decides to abandon it and take top position. Hooper clings to the top position like Saran wrap, nullifying Miller and causing the audience to start booing. Hooper resides in half guard, smothering and hanging tight until posturing up with a few elbows to the side. Hooper sits up with seconds to go, and the fight that started with a roar ends with a whimper.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (29-28 Hooper)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)
The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Connor picks Jim Miller, citing his well-rounded game and lack of fear of grapplers. He believes Miller's experience and ability to find one good shot will be key, and that Hooper's messy striking will leave him vulnerable. Connor notes that Miller has knocked out bad strikers before and that Hooper's game may fall apart if his early submission attempts fail.
Daniel Levi notes that Chase Hooper handled a legend, securing eight takedowns and doing what he was supposed to do. He suggests moving Hooper up and even proposes a fight against Michael Chandler. He respects Jim Miller as a legend but acknowledges the loss.
Zane picks Chase Hooper, believing his scrambling and kinetic grappling will overwhelm the 41-year-old Jim Miller. He thinks Hooper's youth and submission hunting will lead to a finish, possibly early. Zane acknowledges Miller's power and experience but feels Hooper's style is too dynamic for Miller to keep up with.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.
Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.
Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.
Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.
Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.
Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 1 | 62 of 109 | 56% | 129 of 217 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 6:03 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 1 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 76 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 53 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 62 of 109 | 56% | 58 of 104 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 58 of 86 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 32 of 62 | 51% | 28 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 44 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chase Hooper | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 42 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Viacheslav Borshchev because of his striking advantage and Chase Hooper's poor takedown offense (22% accuracy). He notes Borshchev has a professional kickboxing background and can defend takedowns well enough. He acknowledges Hooper's dangerous BJJ but believes Borshchev can keep the fight standing and land punishment.
Big Brady picks Slava Borshchev to win by first-round knockout, but admits it's a tough call and he could look stupid. He notes that on the feet, Borshchev has a huge advantage, as Hooper has been knocked down repeatedly by strikers like Steve Garcia. However, if Hooper gets the fight to the ground, he will dominate. Borshchev has poor takedown defense (36%), but Hooper's wrestling may not be as good as previous opponents. He hopes Borshchev stuffs takedowns and makes it look easy.
Cody picks Hooper as a confident underdog, noting that Borshchev has terrible takedown defense (35% in UFC) and has been taken down 24 times in 6 fights. Hooper, despite his own takedown accuracy issues, should be able to take Borshchev down and dominate on the ground with his elite BJJ. Cody believes Hooper's cardio and tenacity will allow him to survive early striking exchanges and find takedowns later. He already bet Hooper at plus 140.
Daniel Vreeland picks Chase Hooper, noting that Borshchev has poor takedown defense, especially when tired. He believes Hooper can weather the early storm and drag Borshchev to the ground for a ground-and-pound TKO or submission. He mentions that Hooper has moved up to 155 and is growing into his body.
The host leans Borshchev due to his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He expects Borshchev to land big shots as Hooper recklessly closes distance, and hopes his submission defense holds up on the mat. He acknowledges Hooper's grappling danger but thinks Borshchev can survive and find a knockout. The pick is a lean, as he understands the underdog appeal.
Paul picks Hooper, echoing Cody's reasoning. He emphasizes that Borshchev's takedown defense is abysmal and that Hooper, despite his own flaws, has the grappling to exploit it. Paul notes that Hooper has shown heart and improvement at 155, and his BJJ is elite. He expects Hooper to get the fight to the ground and submit or control Borshchev. Paul calls it a 'dog pick' and is confident Hooper can win.
The MMA Guru picks Viacheslav Borshchev over Chase Hooper, despite acknowledging Hooper's improvement. He believes the striking gap is too large and that Borshchev's leg kicks and body shots will be effective. He notes that Hooper lacks the strength to power through takedowns against Borshchev, who has good takedown defense. He predicts a body shot TKO finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-230), Leavitt (+190)
Round 1
Styles make fights, and these two lightweights appear to have the same one. These two grapplers may treat fans with fun exchanges, or they could nullify the other and result in a kickboxing match. Hooper (12-3-1, 4-3 UFC) and Leavitt (11-2, 4-2 UFC) are ready to go wherever is needed over the next three rounds, as is referee Mike Beltran. Two of the more convivial fighters on the roster share a light-hearted clap of hands, and then prepare to hurt each other. Hooper rushes out hoping to strike, and Leavitt hunts for a takedown. Hooper turns him over and fights off a single attempt from Leavitt, and the two spin one another around in the clinch. A scramble leads to the two hitting the mat, and Leavitt considers a guillotine and then a triangle choke into an omoplata. Leavitt uses these attempts to sweep his opponent, and he maintains a can opener only to fall into an armbar setup. Hooper turns over and leans to his back to try to lock the submission down, and Leavitt turns and stands up to stack Hooper up and break up the submission. Hooper chains a leglock into an armbar, and Leavitt smashes him in the face with big right hand that stuns Hooper. “The Dream” attempts a leglock, and Leavitt drops down to do the same, and the 50/50 position persists until Hooper drills Leavitt in the face.
Hooper turns over, and Leavitt sits up and is a bit too slow to spin around. Hooper takes his back during the scramble, and he fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke. The forearm slides beneath the chin, and Hooper starts celebrating the submission before he even gets a tap. Leavitt ultimately does surrender instead of going out
, and Hooper lets go and stands to release a guttural celebratory shriek.
The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jordan Leavitt R1 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Jordan Leavitt, expecting him to be more physical and have slightly better wrestling. He notes both are similar grapplers with poor striking, but thinks Leavitt's power in his hands and ability to get takedowns will be the difference. He may bet if Leavitt becomes a bigger dog.
Big Brady likes Hooper, noting he's putting it together with incredible pace and cardio, as seen in his wins over Felipe Colares and Nick Fiore. He thinks Leavitt has solid wrestling and striking but slows down, as in the Claudio Puelles fight. He predicts Hooper will push a pace Leavitt can't keep up with and finish him late in the third round by TKO.
Cody picks Chase Hooper, noting his high volume striking and improved grappling. He mentions Hooper's durability and ability to win by submission or decision. Cody sees Leavitt as one-dimensional with low output and believes Hooper's size and skill advantage will prevail.
Hooper has improved his pressure fighting and can get the fight to the ground where he has a slick submission game. Leavitt has a weird submission game but questionable cardio and striking. Hooper can land better damage and control on top, winning by decision. However, both fighters are flaky, so confidence is low.
Paul is high on Chase Hooper, citing his youth, size advantage at lightweight, and improved wrestling. He notes Hooper's legitimate jiu-jitsu and cardio, and believes Leavitt is one-dimensional with no standout skills. Paul expects Hooper to drown Leavitt with pressure and volume.
The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt over Chase Hooper, believing Leavitt is further along in his MMA career. He notes Leavitt's improved striking since 2021 and his competitive grappling with Claudio Puelles, which he thinks Leavitt won. He believes Leavitt's grappling is good enough to stop Hooper and that Hooper's win over Nick Fiore is not impressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 149 of 245 | 60% | 217 of 340 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 | 1 | 3:54 |
| Nick Fiore | 0 | 51 of 90 | 56% | 58 of 98 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 60 of 101 | 59% | 68 of 112 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Nick Fiore | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 20 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 2 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 56 of 90 | 62% | 74 of 112 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Nick Fiore | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 3 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 33 of 54 | 61% | 75 of 116 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:05 |
| Nick Fiore | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 22 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 149 of 245 | 60% | 110 of 203 | 31 of 34 | 8 of 8 | 97 of 160 | 42 of 73 | 10 of 12 |
| Nick Fiore | 51 of 90 | 56% | 49 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 66 | 11 of 17 | 6 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 60 of 101 | 59% | 44 of 84 | 11 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 61 | 22 of 36 | 3 of 4 |
| Nick Fiore | 17 of 32 | 53% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Chase Hooper | 56 of 90 | 62% | 43 of 76 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 57 | 17 of 29 | 3 of 4 |
| Nick Fiore | 15 of 31 | 48% | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Chase Hooper | 33 of 54 | 61% | 23 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 42 | 3 of 8 | 4 of 4 |
| Nick Fiore | 19 of 27 | 70% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Nick Fiore because Chase Hooper's striking is abysmal and he lacks wrestling to get the fight to the ground. He notes that Hooper is a 'full-on Jiu Jitsu nerd' with no hands, while Fiore is a solid grappler with better takedowns. However, he admits Hooper could sneak out a win since he may be the better BJJ artist, so no bet is placed.
Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to submit Nick Fiore in the third round, but with low confidence. He notes Hooper has looked better recently, especially in the Felipe Colares fight, but also got knocked out badly by Steve Garcia. He expects this to be a grappling-heavy fight and trusts Hooper's cardio and experience in later rounds over Fiore, who slowed in his UFC debut. However, he admits having much confidence in Hooper is not smart.
Cody thinks Hooper's grappling and cardio could be decisive if the fight stays on the ground. He notes Hooper has been given a favorable matchup and that Fiore's cardio is untested. He takes the underdog for value.
Connor picks Hooper, noting that Fiore's pre-UFC wins were over weak competition and that he was easily handled by Rubezki. He believes Hooper's grappling advantage will be decisive, and that Fiore's aggression will play into Hooper's comfort zone. Connor also mentions that Hooper's move to lightweight is smart and that he will continue to pack on strength.
Daniel Levi picks Chase Hooper as an underdog. He argues that Nick Fiore's style plays into Hooper's strengths: Fiore likes to scramble and grapple, which is Hooper's wheelhouse. Levi notes Fiore is not a threat standing and that Hooper has superior BJJ and flexibility. He acknowledges Hooper's poor striking defense but believes Fiore will take the fight to the mat, where Hooper can win. He calls Hooper his 'fighter to watch.'
The host picks Nick Fiore but is not highly confident, calling it a toss-up between two BJJ black belts. He likes the over 1.5 rounds as the grappling may cancel out early. He thinks Fiore's aggressive style and top pressure could be the difference, and he expects a decision win.
Paul picks Fiore, citing his better striking and the fact that Hooper has taken a lot of damage. He thinks Fiore's grappling is solid and that Hooper's stand-up is not sustainable. He is not confident but leans Fiore.
The MMA Guru believes in New England Cartel's ability to improve fighters. He notes Fiore has dominated regional competition (though against cans) and showed toughness against Ricky Turcios on short notice. He expects Fiore's takedown defense and boxing to be too much for Chase Hooper, predicting a TKO finish on the feet in the first round. He doubts Hooper's athleticism and ability to get the fight to the ground.
Zane picks Hooper, believing he can tangle Fiore up on the mat and come out ahead in scrambles. He notes that Fiore's striking is purely a way to get to grappling, and Hooper is comfortable in clinch and ground exchanges. Zane also thinks Hooper's striking has improved, as seen against Philippa Colares, and that Fiore is not the same level of pocket aggressor as Steve Garcia.
Clay Guida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.
Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.
Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.
Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.
Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.
Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 43 of 134 | 32% | 63 of 155 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 85 of 141 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 19 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 29 of 48 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 26 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 43 of 134 | 32% | 19 of 103 | 14 of 20 | 10 of 11 | 36 of 127 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 46 of 91 | 50% | 33 of 72 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 64 | 15 of 19 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 18 of 64 | 28% | 6 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 32 | 46% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 14 of 33 | 42% | 9 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 20 | 75% | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.
Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.
Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.
Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 0 | 63 of 252 | 25% | 63 of 252 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 141 of 287 | 49% | 143 of 289 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 0 | 23 of 92 | 25% | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 34 of 89 | 38% | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 0 | 21 of 88 | 23% | 21 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 65 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 0 | 19 of 72 | 26% | 19 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 42 of 88 | 47% | 44 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 63 of 252 | 25% | 49 of 227 | 4 of 12 | 10 of 13 | 63 of 252 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 141 of 287 | 49% | 130 of 269 | 5 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 138 of 284 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 23 of 92 | 25% | 16 of 82 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 34 of 89 | 38% | 29 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 21 of 88 | 23% | 17 of 80 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 65 of 110 | 59% | 63 of 107 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 62 of 107 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 19 of 72 | 26% | 16 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 42 of 88 | 47% | 38 of 81 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)
Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.
Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.
Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.
Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.
Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.
Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.
The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.
Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 66 of 183 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 65 of 166 | 39% | 77 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 23 of 79 | 29% | 23 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 29 of 53 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 43 of 83 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 66 of 183 | 36% | 30 of 134 | 23 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 58 of 173 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 65 of 166 | 39% | 55 of 146 | 5 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 60 of 160 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 23 of 79 | 29% | 10 of 59 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 48 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 26 of 64 | 40% | 11 of 44 | 13 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 25 of 61 | 40% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.
Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.
Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.
Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.
Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.
The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.
Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.
The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.
Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.
Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.
The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 50 of 87 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 65 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 34 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 63 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 18 of 50 | 36% | 8 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 41 of 60 | 68% | 22 of 39 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 8 of 30 | 26% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Leonardo Santos | 39 of 58 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Leonardo Santos | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.
Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.
Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.
Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.
Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.
I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.
Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 72 of 212 | 33% | 72 of 212 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 98 of 192 | 51% | 101 of 198 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 32 of 52 | 61% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 31 of 90 | 34% | 31 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 35 of 82 | 42% | 35 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 72 of 212 | 33% | 30 of 161 | 5 of 13 | 37 of 38 | 64 of 203 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 98 of 192 | 51% | 70 of 159 | 17 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 80 of 172 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 15 of 50 | 30% | 7 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 32 of 52 | 61% | 17 of 33 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 36 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 26 of 72 | 36% | 10 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 13 | 22 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 31 of 58 | 53% | 24 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 31 of 90 | 34% | 13 of 67 | 2 of 7 | 16 of 16 | 29 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 35 of 82 | 42% | 29 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.
Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.
Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.
Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.
The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 58 of 126 | 46% | 70 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 49 of 89 | 55% | 65 of 107 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 6:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 29 of 44 | 65% | 31 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 58 of 126 | 46% | 52 of 113 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 47 of 115 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 |
| Michael Johnson | 49 of 89 | 55% | 31 of 71 | 12 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 72 | 14 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 31 of 66 | 46% | 26 of 55 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 62 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 29 of 44 | 65% | 21 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 14 of 27 | 51% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Michael Johnson | 13 of 24 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Michael Johnson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.
Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.
Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.
Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.
Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.
Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.
Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.
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