UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Aug 06, 2016 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres Next Fight
Age 40
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 249 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marcin Tybura
3.56 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.26 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Viktor Pešta
1.58 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
2.54 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
3.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Marcin Tybura - Fight History
LOSS vs Tyrell Fortune
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 47 of 110 42% 85 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Tyrell Fortune 0 30 of 59 50% 49 of 81 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 8 of 22 36% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyrell Fortune 0 9 of 15 60% 18 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:03
2 Marcin Tybura 0 19 of 50 38% 21 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyrell Fortune 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Tybura 0 20 of 38 52% 51 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Tyrell Fortune 0 8 of 18 44% 18 of 29 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 47 of 110 42% 22 of 77 20 of 27 5 of 6 36 of 96 11 of 14 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 30 of 59 50% 24 of 53 6 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 43 6 of 6 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 9 of 15 60% 8 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 9
2 Marcin Tybura 19 of 50 38% 8 of 35 7 of 11 4 of 4 17 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 20 of 38 52% 9 of 26 11 of 12 0 of 0 15 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 8 of 18 44% 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.

Win inside distance decision no action
"Tyrell's going to be the pick. If you're too scared to bet him, then grab him at win inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.

Tybura by submission round 2
"I'm leaning Tybura here. ... I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.

"It's going to be the Polish powerhouse, Marcin Tybura."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.

"I think this is right place, right time for Tyrell Fortune to at least get one UFC win under his belt against an established, serious name in Marcin Tybura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.

decision
"I think we'll see Fortune having shored up those submission defense issues and I think that would lead to him grinding this fight out uh and having a successful UFC debut."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.

"I'm taking the dog in Tybura as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

decision
"I'm picking Martin Tyura to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."
LOSS vs Ante Delija
KO R1 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 9 44% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Ante Delija 1 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 9 44% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Ante Delija 1 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ante Delija 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ante Delija 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo reluctantly picks Marcin Tybura, citing his toughness, experience, and ability to grind out wins. He notes that the line has flipped with Delija now the favorite. He acknowledges Delija's power and takedowns but points out his age (35) and that he's from another organization, which the community often dismisses. He believes Tybura's durability and cagemanship will be key.

"I'm going to pick Marcen Tyora. I'm going to stick with that pick, but it's a reluctant pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Big Brady picks Ante Delija, citing his speed and power on the feet. He notes Tybura's chin has been cracked and he is almost 40. He sees Delia winning by knockout if he can stuff takedowns, but acknowledges Tybura's path via grappling. He predicts a knockout win.

Delija by knockout
"I'll say Delia, I'll say Dia by knockout, but I'm looking forward to it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The host recalls their first meeting where Tybura won after Delija broke his leg. He thinks Delija can be successful in the UFC and will land more damaging shots, be more aggressive, mix in clinch and takedowns, eventually find a dominant position and get Tybura out of there via TKO.

TKO
"I think that will eventually lead to Dia finding a dominant position to rain down big shots and get Tyora out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The Guru picks Ante Delija, arguing that Tybura's 'fraud check' wins come against less experienced opponents, while Delija is a seasoned heavyweight with no clear holes. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall and believes his athleticism and footwork will be too much. He predicts a TKO finish in round two or three, possibly from leg kicks and in-close shots.

TKO finish
"I'm going to go with Ante Deia. I think he's a step above the guys that do get fraud checked by Tyura."
WIN vs Mick Parkin
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 61 of 155 39% 64 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Mick Parkin 0 60 of 145 41% 102 of 192 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mick Parkin 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Marcin Tybura 0 7 of 20 35% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Mick Parkin 0 15 of 38 39% 41 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
3 Marcin Tybura 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Mick Parkin 0 22 of 62 35% 37 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 61 of 155 39% 28 of 110 29 of 40 4 of 5 60 of 151 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 60 of 145 41% 47 of 130 1 of 2 12 of 13 49 of 118 2 of 2 9 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 21 of 56 37% 4 of 34 15 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 23 of 45 51% 13 of 34 1 of 1 9 of 10 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 7 of 20 35% 4 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 25
3 Marcin Tybura 33 of 79 41% 20 of 61 11 of 15 2 of 3 32 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 22 of 62 35% 19 of 58 0 of 1 3 of 3 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

"I'm going to go with my gut... and I'm picking Mick Parkin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

Tybura by decision
"I'm going to take the underdog here and Marchin tabber to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

finish late in the fight or decision
"I think Parkin's athletic advantages here from his striking advantage to even some grappling that people have yet to see will be too much for the aging Tyboro to deal with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Mick Parkin guys Mick Parkin's going to get this one done"
WIN vs Jhonata Diniz
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 35 of 49 71% 153 of 187 1 of 3 33% 0 1 7:14
Jhonata Diniz 0 15 of 29 51% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 66 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:57
Jhonata Diniz 0 7 of 14 50% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Marcin Tybura 0 32 of 44 72% 87 of 105 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:17
Jhonata Diniz 0 8 of 15 53% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 35 of 49 71% 33 of 46 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 26 of 30
Jhonata Diniz 15 of 29 51% 13 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jhonata Diniz 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10
2 Marcin Tybura 32 of 44 72% 31 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 24 of 27
Jhonata Diniz 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jhonata Diniz vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)

Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura

Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.

Angelo says he will bet on Tybura if he is an underdog, and mentions using the Discord for alerts.
"we're picking marcine he's old he's slow as hell the haircuts insane ... but he is a grinder that can get fights to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.

fight time under 9.75 minutes, under 1.5 rounds
"I do got a lean with tyur here I just think if he gets the fight down to the mat it's a wrap"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.

submission, round 1 (plus 800)
"I took Mar marching daura by submission and it just kind of comes down to like the Tai taiu iasa fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.

"Yeah, I think this is a good fight for marty and tibera. Yeah, agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.

"I think I'm willing to roll the dice on the underdog here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.

Marcin Tybura wins by KO/TKO (+525)
"I think Marine tybera is a thousand per gonna take down and grounded pound uh janat Den KN"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.

"I'm taking Charles Oar... I'm playing it tight now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.

submission
"I'm expecting Toro to Showcase his full MMA game here staying away from the Striking of Dennis getting this fight to the ground and eventually finding a submission opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.

"Ty bro is a play for me and again I'm glad it's early on the card because I may take a bath on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.

KO/TKO in early rounds
"I'm going to go with janat denz... I think he's got the ability to pick up the takedown defense quite quickly... I can see janat denz getting a KO here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.

Odds: Tybura opened +115, now -142; Diniz opened -129, now +127. Zane notes it's not hopeless for Diniz if he kicks Tybura's legs early.
"I this looks like I've done a type world win first and foremost, but if he gets caught cold i'm not going to be... No, it would not be a shock."
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Submission (armbar) R1 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.

Likely no money on this fight; age difference a concern
"I think Tor wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.

"I'm going to agree it's a dogger pass main event for me as well it's not like there's huge dog money on marcine Toro but you got a guy that won the previous matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.

Tybura by decision; over 2.5 rounds (or over 3.5 rounds) at even money
"I still think he's the better overall fighter in this spot better Striker can compete in the wrestling in my opinion maybe the better pure BJJ specialist probably the better cardio so it's kind of surprising to see him as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.

"I took some Plus 138 on Tuesday Cody cuz I just think tor's got better standup submission grappling may be an edge there speac really lays on the wrestling on a lot of people is he able to you know …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.

"I'm gonna go with Martin toura over Sergey spivac I don't think toura can be finished on the ground and their first fight toura one"
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)

Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.

watching line movement; hopes for better odds
"tybor is the underdog pick here I am going to watch the line movement a lot of these fights I'm watching the line movement"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.

by first round knockout
"Give me a taiu iasa first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.

by KO
"I feel like I want to go Tai Tuivasa... I just got like a nagging suspicion that Tai's power is just too much for him he crumples him up early."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.

"I can see Ty knocking him out in round one for sure but I can also see Tor just weathering the storm and just coming in as the more reliable heavyweight..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.

arm triangle choke
"I think Toro will come up short against the Tom Aspen of the world but we've seen him take some big shots from guys like Greg Hardy and Walt Harris as well as Ben Rothwell and he rolls well with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.

by KO
"I'm picking Tai as well I think Tai by knockout... in those first seven and a half minutes or so he's if he does try to close distance he's going to be eating shots trying to do so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.

round one or two KO
"I'm going to go with round two or one KO for tyu evasa... I think tuivasa is going to capitalize chopping that car early and then started to bring it upstairs."
LOSS vs Tom Aspinall
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 1:13 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 13 of 18 72% 12 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Marcin Tybura 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 13 of 18 72% 12 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Marcin Tybura 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.

suggested as parlay piece with Molly McCann
"I'm all in on Tom aspinall here I think he's a solid parlay piece"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.

first round knockout
"give me Tom aspinall Tom Aspen to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.

small bet on Tybura moneyline at +380
"I took a little bit very very small bet of Marcin tibora plus 380. I'm prepared to look really really dumb"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.

Daniel says the price is 'absolutely terrible' and that laying -475 to -500 is a 'sucker bet'. He lines Aspinall closer to -400 and passes on betting.
"I do think Tom's gonna win this fight but I mean I think that laying minus 475 to minus 500 here is a sucker bet"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.

Tom Aspinall wins in round two
"I think he probably finishes tybora in round two and that's my prediction of the fire I've got time in round two"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds at -140/-150
"I think that early speed and power Advantage for Tom aspinel is going to be too much for tibura... I think it's going to end up with him getting his hand raised by a first round stoppage here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.

suggests live betting Tybura after round 1
"I would take Tom maskman all here don't know if I end up putting them on the top ticket an option"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.

finish in first round
"I'm going with asper now I think it's a very logical pick"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 40 of 103 38% 61 of 133 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:55
Blagoy Ivanov 0 34 of 113 30% 34 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Tybura 0 17 of 57 29% 17 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 22 of 72 30% 22 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Tybura 0 1 of 1 100% 22 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:55
Blagoy Ivanov 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 40 of 103 38% 12 of 70 19 of 24 9 of 9 39 of 102 0 of 0 1 of 1
Blagoy Ivanov 34 of 113 30% 24 of 98 10 of 15 0 of 0 34 of 112 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 22 of 45 48% 5 of 26 10 of 12 7 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 41 29% 8 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 17 of 57 29% 7 of 44 9 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 22 of 72 30% 16 of 63 6 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Blagoy Ivanov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady calls this a messy fight and expects it to go to a greasy decision. He picks the underdog Ivanov because he is more durable and has never been finished, while Tybura has been finished multiple times. He is not confident and advises against betting.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take even off to win a very greasy split decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Cody picks Ivanov at plus money, calling it a close heavyweight fight. He believes Ivanov has a slight edge in technical boxing and volume. He notes both fighters are low-volume and durable, expecting a decision. He took Ivanov at +130 and thinks the fight is essentially 50-50, so he takes the underdog.

"I took the plus money at plus 130... I think he's got a maybe a slight Edge in uh in like technical boxing a slight Edge in volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor picks Marcin Tybura, expecting a split decision. He notes that Tybura is more proactive with kicks and combinations, and will likely be the one initiating clinch exchanges. However, he acknowledges Ivanov's durability and defensive wrestling, which could make the fight ugly. Connor is confident it will be a split decision but leans Tybura due to higher output.

split decision
"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Tybura, arguing that Ivanov has looked slow and predictable in recent fights. He notes Ivanov's poor cardio and lack of takedown attempts, while Tybura has good cardio and mobility for a heavyweight. He expects Tybura to outwork Ivanov, especially in the later rounds. He also likes the under on Tybura 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Tybura under 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I went the other way I just can't get behind blah boy anymore... gotta go the other way here in marcine Tabor but middling heavyweights expect the worst"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Marcin Tybura, agreeing that it will be a split decision. He notes that Tybura has better tools at range and is more likely to control the clinch. However, he warns that Ivanov's power and chin could cause an upset if Tybura gets hurt. Zane sees Tybura's improved composure as a key factor.

split decision
"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."
Viktor Pešta - Fight History
LOSS vs Aleksei Oleinik
Submission (Ezekiel choke) R1 2:57 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Jan 15, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 15 46% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:34
Viktor Pešta 0 7 of 19 36% 18 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 15 46% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:34
Viktor Pešta 0 7 of 19 36% 18 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 15 46% 4 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 15 46% 4 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 8
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
KO (head kick) R2 0:53 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Aug 06, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 42 7% 4 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Viktor Pešta 1 15 of 62 24% 20 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 36 8% 4 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Viktor Pešta 0 13 of 52 25% 18 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Marcin Tybura 0 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viktor Pešta 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 3 of 42 7% 2 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 15 of 62 24% 11 of 54 2 of 5 2 of 3 14 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 3 of 36 8% 2 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 13 of 52 25% 10 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 2 12 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 2 of 10 20% 1 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R3 1:15 · UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson · Oct 03, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 0 41 of 63 65% 51 of 74 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Viktor Pešta 0 8 of 13 61% 47 of 61 5 of 13 38% 0 0 7:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 2 of 5 40% 4 of 7 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:13
Viktor Pešta 0 4 of 5 80% 22 of 26 3 of 7 42% 0 0 4:05
2 Derrick Lewis 0 24 of 35 68% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Viktor Pešta 0 4 of 7 57% 24 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:05
3 Derrick Lewis 0 15 of 23 65% 19 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Viktor Pešta 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 41 of 63 65% 36 of 58 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 13 10 of 10 28 of 40
Viktor Pešta 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 1 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 3
2 Derrick Lewis 24 of 35 68% 20 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 8 of 8 14 of 20
Viktor Pešta 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Derrick Lewis 15 of 23 65% 14 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 20
Viktor Pešta 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Viktor Pesta

Round 1
The heavyweights spend 30 seconds circling and testing the range before Lewis shoots on Pesta’s legs and rushes him to the ground. Pesta gets right back to his feet and holds Lewis in a clinch on the fence before returning the favor with a trip takedown. Straight to side control goes Pesta, elbowing Lewis’ face from the left with the cage a foot away on Lewis’ right. Lewis is trying to wrap up from underneath, not trying to escape from the position as Pesta knees his ribs. Suddenly, Lewis rolls right and powers back to his feet, then tries to hurl Pesta to the ground with an underhook. Pesta easily reverses and trips the “Black Beast” back to the base of the fence. Lewis uses a kimura from underneath to work back to his feet, but Pesta is tenacious and won’t let him off the fence. Down to the final 90 seconds of the frame as Pesta hits his third trip takedown of the round. Lewis works back to his feet again, Pesta clinging to his waist. The Czech fighter takes a glance up at the clock as he wraps up Lewis and rides out the last half minute.

Sherdog Scores
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Pesta
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Pesta
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Pesta

Round 2
The round begins slowly, like the first, but this time it’s Pesta who shoots for a takedown. Lewis fends it off for 30 seconds with his back to the fence until Pesta finds his second effort and succeeds in flooring the American. Lewis keeps his opponent in guard as they hit the mat, and both big men swing heavy, if ineffectual punches as they scoot around the cage. With no progress being made on the ground, referee Kerry Hatley brings the heavyweights back to their feet with half the round remaining. Lewis tries to blitz and instead has the momentum turned back on him for another Pesta takedown. Both men look tired but Pesta looks exhausted as he tries to hold Lewis on the ground. Lewis won’t be held down this time, and he breaks away from Pesta’s tired clinch on the feet soon after. Pesta eats a right hand from Lewis, grabs for his legs but can’t find the takedown. Lewis stuffs him to the mat and smashes Pesta’s face with hammerfists as the final 20 seconds tick down. Referee Hatley looks poised to intervene when Pesta is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Lewis

Round 3
Lewis takes the center as the heavyweights baby-step around the cage. Pesta tries to circle away and gets caught near the cage with a Lewis right hand. Lewis shuts down a takedown attempt and forces Pesta to the ground, then stands over the Czech fighter and tries to shuck his legs. Lewis steps into full mount and begins unloading with both fists, smashing through Pesta’s mitts with a few particularly brutal right hands. With Pesta simply covering up and not fighting back, referee Hatley steps in and stops the bout.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Viktor Pesta via TKO (Punches) R3 1:15
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Gustafsson vs. Johnson · Jan 24, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viktor Pešta 0 35 of 59 59% 124 of 161 4 of 13 30% 0 0 9:07
Konstantin Erokhin 0 17 of 36 47% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viktor Pešta 0 8 of 20 40% 23 of 38 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:58
Konstantin Erokhin 0 13 of 27 48% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Viktor Pešta 0 18 of 28 64% 52 of 69 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:33
Konstantin Erokhin 0 2 of 6 33% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Viktor Pešta 0 9 of 11 81% 49 of 54 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:36
Konstantin Erokhin 0 2 of 3 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viktor Pešta 35 of 59 59% 25 of 47 5 of 6 5 of 6 10 of 26 3 of 6 22 of 27
Konstantin Erokhin 17 of 36 47% 11 of 28 4 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 29 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viktor Pešta 8 of 20 40% 7 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 9 2 of 4 3 of 7
Konstantin Erokhin 13 of 27 48% 9 of 22 4 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 20 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Viktor Pešta 18 of 28 64% 9 of 17 5 of 6 4 of 5 6 of 14 0 of 1 12 of 13
Konstantin Erokhin 2 of 6 33% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viktor Pešta 9 of 11 81% 9 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 7
Konstantin Erokhin 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs. Mousasi · May 31, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ruslan Magomedov 0 26 of 84 30% 46 of 120 1 of 9 11% 0 0 3:09
Viktor Pešta 0 47 of 117 40% 51 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ruslan Magomedov 0 14 of 35 40% 34 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:31
Viktor Pešta 0 12 of 33 36% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Ruslan Magomedov 0 5 of 29 17% 5 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Viktor Pešta 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ruslan Magomedov 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:07
Viktor Pešta 0 19 of 44 43% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ruslan Magomedov 26 of 84 30% 20 of 77 6 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 65 7 of 11 5 of 8
Viktor Pešta 47 of 117 40% 36 of 103 5 of 6 6 of 8 45 of 114 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ruslan Magomedov 14 of 35 40% 10 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 21 4 of 6 5 of 8
Viktor Pešta 12 of 33 36% 8 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Ruslan Magomedov 5 of 29 17% 4 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 25 3 of 4 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 16 of 40 40% 12 of 36 2 of 2 2 of 2 15 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ruslan Magomedov 7 of 20 35% 6 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Viktor Pešta 19 of 44 43% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 4 19 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0