vs
+150 -155
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Duncan
4.83 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.57 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.92 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Bolaji Oki
6.42 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.12 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Chris Duncan
Moneyline
BetRivers +150
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +340
Bolaji Oki
Moneyline
DraftKings -155
KO/TKO
FanDuel +140
Submission
BetRivers +1900
Decision
FanDuel +370
Chris Duncan - Fight History
LOSS vs Renato Moicano
Submission R2 3:14 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Renato Moicano 0 21 of 36 58% 62 of 84 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:16
Chris Duncan 0 27 of 62 43% 30 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Renato Moicano 0 14 of 20 70% 16 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Chris Duncan 0 17 of 38 44% 19 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Renato Moicano 0 7 of 16 43% 46 of 62 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:03
Chris Duncan 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Renato Moicano 21 of 36 58% 16 of 31 4 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 1
Chris Duncan 27 of 62 43% 8 of 39 5 of 7 14 of 16 25 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Renato Moicano 14 of 20 70% 10 of 16 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Duncan 17 of 38 44% 3 of 22 3 of 3 11 of 13 15 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Renato Moicano 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Chris Duncan 10 of 24 41% 5 of 17 2 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan, noting his durability and never-quit attitude. He acknowledges Moicano is more technical and experienced but believes Moicano is old and used up. He points out that Duncan has a history of winning fights he's not supposed to and that Moicano's recent focus may not be enough. Angelo has no bet on this fight.

"Chris Duncan is going to be the pick. I think Moano is a little too old and used up at this point."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Moicano is dangerous in the first round but fades after that, citing the Dariush fight where Moicano did nothing in the last 10 minutes. He believes Duncan has better cardio, durability, and power, and that his takedown defense has improved since the Manuel Torres loss. He expects Duncan to drop the first round but take over and eventually knock out Moicano.

Duncan by KO in round 3
"I'm going to take Chris Duncan to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody picks Duncan due to his momentum, youth, and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes Moicano's losing streak and potential lack of focus, but acknowledges the fight could be competitive early. He expects Duncan's superior striking and work rate to secure a win.

"Personally, I'm going to end up going Duncan just being that he's the younger guy. He's got a whole lot of momentum right now."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host finds it difficult to bet pre-fight. He notes Duncan is easy to take down, which plays into Moicano's strength, but Moicano's chin and cardio are questionable in a five-round fight. He sees value on neither side and will watch for live betting. He also notes the odds for 'fight doesn't go to decision' are terrible.

Odds for fight not to go to decision are terrible, so no bet.
"So for me, it's a very difficult for a pre-fight bet. And I'll probably give this one a miss pre-fight. Um, difficult fight to pre-fight. Hopefully we can live bet it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing Duncan's upward trajectory, age advantage (32 vs 36), superior cardio, durability, and will to win. He notes Moicano's possible decline due to outside interests and a longer camp. James expects a war but believes Duncan's physicality and recoverability will carry him, especially in later rounds. He mentions Duncan's power and takedown defense as key factors, though he acknowledges Moicano's early speed and submission threat. James states he won't bet publicly due to friendship bias but will have 'beer money' on Duncan.

No public bet; beer money on Duncan moneyline
"I'm picking Chris to win this one. I think it's going to be a good fight. I think it's going to be another war, honestly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing his durability and power advantage over Moicano. He believes Duncan's momentum and shorter camp have him in peak form, and he predicts a fourth-round TKO finish. James also notes that Duncan's confidence is high from training with Moicano and seeing his own improvement.

Fourth round TKO
"I definitely think you got a durability advantage here. I think you got a power advantage. So, those two put together."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James is rooting for his friend Chris Duncan and has released a full breakdown video with him. He mentions Chris is his friend and he will be rooting for him against Moicano, indicating a clear pick for Duncan.

"I'm definitely going to be rooting for him against Moicano this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host expects Duncan to counter Moicano effectively, showcase good grappling defense, and eventually break Moicano for a finish inside the distance. He notes Moicano's recent struggles, poor durability, and questionable gas tank, while Duncan is on a four-fight winning streak with evolving skills. The host predicts a second-round TKO or submission for Duncan.

under 2.5 rounds at -125
"I look for Duncan to counter Moano effectively... I think at a certain point within 10 maybe 12 and a half minutes we will see one of these guys get a finish. And I'm expecting it to be the Scott …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul leans towards Duncan, citing that Moicano struggles when outwrestled. He expects Duncan to use takedowns and control to win, though he's not heavily invested and plans to live bet.

"Duncan minus 170. Um, it's how I'd play it if I were to click the button right now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Chris Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan, admitting he has doubted him before but is now convinced. He believes Duncan's durability, grit, and damage output will overcome Moicano, especially if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Moicano hasn't looked himself and that Duncan has good submission defense. He predicts a third-round TKO.

Third-round TKO predicted
"I'm taking Duncan to win. I'm done doubting him. I'm done doubting Dunk."
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.

"I'm going to pick Terence McKini. Don't do anything with that information. These odds aren't good enough to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.

Duncan by first round knockout
"I'm going to say Duncan weathers the early storm and knocks out Terrence McKenna in very brutal fashion late in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.

"I'm gonna go with the Terrence McKenna side. Uh, but I will say with the caveat of um I feel like a Duncan round two prop at like plus 450 plus plus 600's out there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.

"I have to prick Chris Duncan the way, especially the way Chris Duncan is now. Like that's what I was going to say. Chris Duncan, I think has really gotten a lot better in a pretty short period of time."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.

"I am going to pick Chris Duncan. There's obviously a chance he gets finished in the first, but if he doesn't, he's got multiple avenues to victory."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.

Chris Duncan inside the distance
"I got Chris all day here, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think that we'll see Duncan eventually take advantage of McKenny's overaggressive style and find that finish under one and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.

"I'm going to actually go with Chris Duncan in this spot. Just he's got more ways to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Terrence McKini getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Chris Duncan."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.

Duncan should be a bigger favorite
"I think Duncan could, that should actually be a bunch bigger favorite. Frankly."
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 114 of 267 42% 123 of 278 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:23
Mateusz Rębecki 0 92 of 222 41% 95 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 32 of 74 43% 38 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 19 of 62 30% 19 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 38 of 88 43% 38 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mateusz Rębecki 0 25 of 62 40% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 44 of 105 41% 47 of 109 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
Mateusz Rębecki 0 48 of 98 48% 50 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 114 of 267 42% 88 of 235 7 of 13 19 of 19 104 of 256 10 of 11 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 92 of 222 41% 67 of 181 20 of 35 5 of 6 85 of 214 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 32 of 74 43% 20 of 61 1 of 2 11 of 11 30 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 19 of 62 30% 10 of 47 6 of 12 3 of 3 19 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 38 of 88 43% 32 of 78 0 of 4 6 of 6 38 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 25 of 62 40% 17 of 48 8 of 13 0 of 1 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 44 of 105 41% 36 of 96 6 of 7 2 of 2 36 of 96 8 of 9 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 48 of 98 48% 40 of 86 6 of 10 2 of 2 41 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)

Round 1
Remaining in the lightweight division for the co-main event, a pair of friends and training partners at American Top Team will throw down for Coconut Creek bragging rights. Both men happen to be a win or two from ranked opposition, so this “separating wheat from chaff” matchup has fairly high stakes relative to most other fights on the card—the preceding Rosa vs. Cornolle pairing was the lone bout on the card between two ranked combatants. Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) and Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC) will handle their business with matching 4-1 records in the UFC at stake, and referee Kerry Hatley will serve as the third man in the Octagon. The teammates touch gloves before determining how exactly how much pain they wish to inflict on one another.
Duncan leads off immediately with a head kick, and Rebecki comes right after him swinging. Rebecki loads up on his left hand, and Duncan knocks him back with his own right hook. The two are talking to one another as they load up with massive power—at this point, it appears they are going brawl it out. Rebecki knocks Duncan down to the ground with his swinging shots, and Duncan is able to get back to his feet. As they trade again, a giant mouse develops on the top right corner of Rebecki’s head. Rebecki takes Duncan down briefly, and Duncan threatens off his back with an elbow and then tries to get hold of a submission. Rebecki backs out and stands up, with Duncan following suit. Rebecki is quick get put his foot on the gas once more, and Duncan fires back with impunity and opens a cut on Rebecki’s forehead above his right eyebrow. Duncan sits down on an elbow that Rebecki eats like a steak, and Rebecki continues to walk through damaging blows.
Duncan stays on his back foot attacking with body kicks, and Rebecki gets close to him and drives home three quick punches. Duncan strikes with another elbow and whiffs on a head kick, and he recovers after getting countered. Duncan goes for a body kick, and Rebecki counters cleanly with a right hook. Duncan drives a knee to the body and falls to his back, and Rebecki tackles him down and looks to get to the guard. Duncan turns over while under fire to get to his feet, and Rebecki is clinging to him from behind. Rebecki leans on his training partner, and Duncan grabs the fence to get a better position. Duncan breaks out of the grip around his waist, and they proceed to trade long straight punches. Duncan steps in with a knee and is wobbled by an overhand right. Rebecki swings with everything he has, a left hand jacking Duncan in the jaw but not hurting him. Duncan scores a few elbows, and the tense, vicious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Rebecki comes right out of his corner ready to attack, and he does just that by nailing Duncan with a crisp one-two. Duncan counters with a right hand, and he is reached by a left hook upstairs. Duncan delivers a body kick as Rebecki comes at him, and he does this again as Rebecki is trying to swing for the bleachers. Duncan misses on a kick, and Rebecki is bleeding again and strikes the body to open up head shots. Rebecki lobs a big left and a right that land flush on the sides of his foe’s head, and Duncan appears to get his foe’s attention with a sharp right hand. The Scotsman follows with a head kick that Rebecki somehow absorbs, barely still with it. Rebecki blinks it out and shoots for a double, and he takes a knee on the jaw on the way in. Duncan worms his way out the position to work back upright, and he elbows his teammate in the cut that has developed swelling around the gaping wound.
Rebecki does not care about the damage, blood in his eyes and a golf ball on his forehead, as he loops huge punches at Duncan again and again. Rebecki’s huge haymakers have swelled up Duncan’s eyes, and both men are going to need some recovery time when this is all said and done. Duncan rips a kick to the body and then stabs him in the torso with his toes. Rebecki lowers his guard to defend his guts, compromised from the strike, so Duncan attacks him with an elbow up top. Duncan goes to the body with kicks, and even when blocked, Rebecki takes them hard on the arms. Rebecki loads up on three punches to the dome, and he chases after Duncan with left hands as Duncan’s right eye balloons. Duncan kicks the front leg and jabs the gaping wound on his foe’s head, while Rebecki chases after him. Duncan knees him in the belly, and they trade hands right to the bell. Rebecki’s right eye is nearly swollen shut, and this one might not make it to the third round because of how trashed his face is.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
Rebecki is cleared between rounds, and he comes out of his corner like a berserker. Swinging his way forward to shoot for takedown, he gets Duncan down and pops back up without concern. Rebecki lets him up so he can punch him in the face, and they proceed to trade hilariously heavy leather. Duncan intercepts his hard-swinging foe with faster strikes, backing off the Polish brawler and forcing a shot out of him. Duncan stops it and blocks the oncoming fire, but Rebecki still gets through. Duncan lands a body kick, and Rebecki still manages to shoot in on his hips. Duncan hits the deck and threatens with an anaconda choke, rolling through it to lock it down, but Rebecki rolls through it further to escape. They both get up, and Duncan aims a head kick at Rebecki’s leaking visage. Rebecki looks for takedowns as he appears to be fading, while Duncan beats on him with elbows. Rebecki rips open a cut on Duncan’s left eye, and Duncan completely ignores it as he bashes Rebecki in the swollen eye. Just bleed indeed.
Rebecki has his right eye closed, and Duncan closes in to tie him up to get a few seconds to catch his wind before they re-engage. Duncan stabs the body with his foot, and Rebecki is right in his face slugging him. Rebecki loops a left hand and zips an uppercut through the guard. Both men are bloodied and battered, but they continue to bang. Duncan wobbles back, starting to feel it himself, and Rebecki somehow is willing himself into a second or third wind. Duncan pushes “Chinczyk” to the fence, and Rebecki explodes out and hurls punches in bunches. Duncan boots him in the head, and Rebecki is impossibly tough as he tanks it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Duncan lines up a knee to the forehead, and Rebecki unloads several uppercuts on the inside. They split up, and smash one another in the face right until time expires. Blood pours out of various wounds on both men, and Rebecki collapses to his knees while Duncan raises his arms in the air. What a titanic tussle, somehow outdoing the match before it and putting itself in contention for “Fight of the Year.” TLDR? Go back and watch this somehow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Duncan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Mateusz Rebecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.

"I think I'm gonna take Duncan here. I just like the potential for him as a finisher and as a power striker in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Submission round 2
"Chris Duncan submission round two after a war. He hurts Rebecki, jumps on the gilly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.

"I'll just take Rubisky. Yeah, it's been a minute since I've seen somebody like this does stand out to me on Chris Duncan's records that these are some pretty measured long range fighters that he has been taking on."
Submission R2 3:42 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Vucenic 0 16 of 26 61% 22 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Chris Duncan 1 15 of 40 37% 24 of 50 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Vucenic 0 1 of 3 33% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 9 of 13 69% 16 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
2 Jordan Vucenic 0 15 of 23 65% 18 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Chris Duncan 0 6 of 27 22% 8 of 29 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Vucenic 16 of 26 61% 13 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 4 12 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2
Chris Duncan 15 of 40 37% 9 of 31 5 of 5 1 of 4 8 of 30 1 of 2 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Vucenic 1 of 3 33% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Duncan 9 of 13 69% 5 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Jordan Vucenic 15 of 23 65% 12 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 19 2 of 2 2 of 2
Chris Duncan 6 of 27 22% 4 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Angelo picks Jordan Vucenic but is hesitant due to the heavy -350 odds. He acknowledges Vucenic looked good in his debut despite the loss, showing durability and danger. He worries about Chris Duncan's incredible durability and ability to come back from being beaten. He decides not to bet the fight due to the poor value.

"I am going to pick Jordan here but I I don't love these minus 350 odds and I'm not going to touch them"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Brady is high on Vucenic, praising his striking and opportunistic submission game. He thinks Vucenic has advantages everywhere: speed, durability, and grappling. He notes Chris Duncan is a walking punching bag and was submitted by Manuel Torres. Brady predicts a second-round submission.

Vucenic by submission round 2
"give me Jordan venage to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vucenic. He emphasizes Vucenic's technical boxing, lead right hand, and ability to finish fights, while Duncan struggles going backwards and lacks a jab. He believes Vucenic will boss Duncan around from the start.

Vucenic opened at -367, currently -400; Duncan opened at +254, currently +344.
"It does just look like this is good. Yeah, he's just gonna get to boss. Duncan around from the get-go."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

The host thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Vucenic to put together a better body of work and win on the scorecards. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds is the best way to bet this fight.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think the over one and a half is probably the best way to win this fight for Vu Chennich or at least bet this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

The Guru is confident in Jordan Vucenic, citing his speed, technical striking, and composure. He notes that Vucenic is much faster than Duncan and has reach at lightweight. He expects Vucenic to school Duncan over three rounds, winning a 30-27 decision, as Duncan is too slow and susceptible to getting caught in submissions.

decision 30-27
"I'm going with Jordan venik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Zane picks Vucenic confidently, highlighting his improved pressure fighting, technical striking, and finishing instincts. He contrasts Duncan's lack of a range game and poor defense going backwards, predicting Vucenic will overwhelm him. He notes Vucenic's loss to Kutateladze was competitive and he has since improved.

Vucenic opened at -367, currently -400; Duncan opened at +254, currently +344. Zane is surprised the line isn't wider.
"This feels like a very good fight for vucenic. Absolutely. One of the easier picks on the card for me."
WIN vs Bolaji Oki
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan as an underdog. He believes Duncan's willingness to stand in the pocket and pump a jab non-stop will frustrate Oki, who has defensive issues and gets hit often. Duncan's durability and ability to survive being dropped are key factors. Angelo notes he might sprinkle a small bet if Duncan's line becomes a bigger underdog.

might sprinkle a dollar or two if line moves to high pluses
"Chris Duncan's gonna win this fight... Chris has that solid jab... Chris has what seems like a very good chin..."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki but is hesitant due to Chris Duncan's poor striking defense (49%) and tendency to walk into shots. He notes Oki has power and could hurt Duncan, but thinks the fight could be close and competitive. He expects Oki to win by decision, possibly dropping Duncan at some point.

Oki by decision
"I'm going to take Oki here um I'm going to take him to win this fight either I'll say by decision maybe he hurts Duncan here or there maybe it drops him but I'm going to say Oki wins this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody leans towards Duncan as an underdog, citing Oki's questionable cardio and takedown defense. He notes that Duncan has wrestling and can take Oki down, potentially tiring him. However, he acknowledges Oki's power and the risk of getting knocked out. He doesn't plan to bet heavily.

"I'll side with Duncan strictly because these new gloves have ruined Knockouts"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Cody picks Bolaji Oki as his tournament play, highlighting his physicality, power, and early knockout potential. He notes Oki is minus 105 to win inside the distance and that Chris Duncan has been badly hurt in past fights. Cody believes Oki is a more technical and powerful striker with better durability, making him a sneaky tournament target at 8.8k.

win inside the distance (-105)
"I'm going to throw Bolaji Oki here at 8.8k against Chris Duncan... he's minus 105 to win inside the distance."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oki is a much cruder fighter despite being a better athlete. He thinks Duncan's experience and ability to game plan will be key. Connor also mentions that Duncan has shown flexibility in his approach, which should help him avoid Oki's early power.

"I think it's all backwards."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Daniel Vreeland picks Bolaji Oki to win by knockout. He thinks Oki is much faster and more powerful on the feet, and that Duncan is hittable and slow. He notes Oki's good takedown defense and counter-striking. He expects Oki to hurt Duncan and finish him, possibly with body shots.

wins by KO
"I'm going to pick hoki to to find a KO here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

JP picks Bolaji Oki because of his power and nine-fight win streak. He notes Oki has never been finished and Chris Duncan has been KO'd by Slava Claus and submitted by Manuel Torres, which he views as poor performances. JP believes Oki's power will be too much for Duncan.

"give me uh Oki by KO okay [ __ ] Duncan no way you're getting submitted by a bum like Torres"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Paul leans towards Oki, believing his power will eventually catch Duncan, who has a questionable chin. He notes that Oki's takedown defense is a concern, but Duncan's wrestling isn't elite. He expects Oki to land a knockout at some point, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I think at some point Oki just melts him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki over Chris Duncan, citing Oki's superior speed and fluidity. He notes that Duncan is slow for the division and hasn't impressed, while Oki looked technical in his UFC debut. He predicts Oki will land more damaging shots and win by decision.

"I'm going to go with bagok I think he'll just be a little bit more fluid a little bit more fast twist and I think that might be the difference in this fight so I'm going to pick him by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Duncan as an experience pick, noting that Duncan is reasonably well-rounded and can game plan. He thinks Duncan can lean on wrestling or aggressive striking to pressure Oki. However, he acknowledges Duncan has meltdown potential, but Oki doesn't have a grappling threat to trouble Duncan.

"My instinct is Duncan for what is essentially an experience pick."
LOSS vs Manuel Torres
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:46 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manuel Torres 0 3 of 5 60% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:42
Chris Duncan 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manuel Torres 0 3 of 5 60% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:42
Chris Duncan 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manuel Torres 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manuel Torres 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Angelo picks Torres as the more dangerous fighter, citing his length and finishing ability. He acknowledges Duncan's durability and toughness but believes Torres will eventually break him. He mentions that over 1.5 rounds might be solid but Torres is the pick.

over 1.5 rounds might be solid
"I am going to pick Torres here I think he's the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Torres has 15 finishes in 16 fights, all in the first round, and is a chaotic striker. He criticizes Chris Duncan's 49% striking defense and notes that Duncan has been knocked down and knocked out before. Brady believes Torres will draw Duncan into a brawl and that Torres has more power and durability. He expects the fight to end in the first round.

Torres wins by KO in round 1
"I'm going to take Torres to win this fight I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody picks Duncan as an underdog, noting that Torres is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio and grappling. He believes Duncan can take Torres down, make him carry weight, and grind him out. He mentions Duncan's improved wrestling and game plan against Ashmus. He acknowledges the risk of getting melted early but likes the plus price.

"dog number two for me I'll take Duncan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges Torres's power and early finishes but notes he overextends and can be countered. He believes Duncan is a more educated striker with a well-rounded game. If Duncan can survive the early onslaught, he can grind Torres against the cage and on the mat, finding a finish in the second or third round as Torres slows down.

Finish in second or third round
"I think if he can stay safe enough early in this fight he should be able to find those grinding opportunities up against the cage on the mat and the potential finishing opportunity in the second and third round as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Duncan. He notes Torres is an offensive dynamo but has cardio issues and poor grappling defense. Duncan's takedowns and pressure could be key. He mentions Duncan's camp at American Top Team and his improved fight IQ. He thinks Duncan can avoid a gunfight and grind out a win.

"I'm with you Duncan plus 165 is a fine Underdog pick as far as I'm concerned"
WIN vs Yanal Ashmouz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 85 of 206 41% 87 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Yanal Ashmouz 0 35 of 98 35% 36 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Yanal Ashmouz 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Yanal Ashmouz 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
Yanal Ashmouz 0 12 of 34 35% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 85 of 206 41% 54 of 161 23 of 30 8 of 15 82 of 200 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 35 of 98 35% 15 of 68 8 of 14 12 of 16 34 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 19 of 60 31% 11 of 46 2 of 5 6 of 9 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 9 of 28 32% 4 of 20 2 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 26 of 60 43% 12 of 41 12 of 14 2 of 5 26 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 3 of 5 5 of 5 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 40 of 86 46% 31 of 74 9 of 11 0 of 1 37 of 80 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 12 of 34 35% 5 of 22 3 of 4 4 of 8 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.

half unit bet placed
"I like Chris in this matchup I think that his forward pressure his grit are gonna get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.

"I hate this pick I hate this fight but I'm gonna take another dog here and Sean abandon to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.

Ashmouz by KO, Ashmouz round 1 at +550
"him plus 120 don't mind it him like there's some like some of the props seem like extra spicy too"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.

Daniel says he is not interested at the betting window. He mentions the line: Duncan -140, Ashmouz +125.
"I'm going to lean Duncan but I I'm not interested at the betting window"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.

"for that fight I do favor Duncan for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.

fight doesn't go to decision, unders are safe
"I feel like ash moose has a little bit better durability a little bit more explosiveness and a little bit more power to eventually find that chin of Duncan and put his lights cleaned out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.

Ashmouz by knockout
"I'm willing to take an underdog flyer here so samyam for you know Ash moons"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO in first round
"I'm definitely gonna have to side with you nalashmus he's coming off a wicked KO win over Sam Patterson"
WIN vs Omar Morales
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 53 of 83 63% 62 of 92 5 of 14 35% 0 0 6:31
Omar Morales 0 47 of 80 58% 53 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Omar Morales 0 26 of 42 61% 27 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 14 of 24 58% 20 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:42
Omar Morales 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
3 Chris Duncan 0 15 of 19 78% 18 of 22 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:37
Omar Morales 0 14 of 21 66% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 53 of 83 63% 12 of 25 17 of 21 24 of 37 43 of 73 3 of 3 7 of 7
Omar Morales 47 of 80 58% 32 of 64 5 of 6 10 of 10 41 of 73 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 24 of 40 60% 6 of 13 6 of 8 12 of 19 21 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
Omar Morales 26 of 42 61% 18 of 34 2 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 37 3 of 4 1 of 1
2 Chris Duncan 14 of 24 58% 1 of 4 5 of 7 8 of 13 9 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 5
Omar Morales 7 of 17 41% 4 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 15 of 19 78% 5 of 8 6 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2
Omar Morales 14 of 21 66% 10 of 16 1 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan because of his toughness and ability to recover from being dropped. He thinks Omar Morales' chin is effectively gone after back-to-back stoppage losses. He placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at -108 and expected the line to move. He believes Duncan will take damage but get the win.

bet at -108
"I do have a half of a unit moneyline bet on him at minus 108."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan as a slight underdog, citing his youth (29 vs 37), power, and toughness despite terrible striking defense. He notes Morales has not shown finishing ability at UFC level and is getting older. He predicts a second-round knockout, but admits he could care less about this fight and finds it hard to call.

"I'm going to take the slight dog here and Chris Duncan and knock out Omar Morales"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Cody picks Morales, despite his low volume and recent KO loss. He notes Duncan is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has poor defense. He thinks Morales has power and can land a big shot, especially with his training at Kill Cliff. He says Morales needs to show aggression and pounce if he hurts Duncan. He admits it's a risky pick but sees value.

"Omar Morales for me as well for a lot of the same points like it's just I don't think Chris Duncan is UFC caliber"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Connor picks Morales but with alarm bells, noting that Morales has mentally deteriorated after three hard losses and a failed weight cut. He believes the matchup is winnable because Duncan is a brawler who will trade at Morales's preferred range. However, he worries that Morales may break if frustrated, as seen in his last fight where he brawled wildly.

"I'll still pick Morales, but I did have to open with a big like alarm bells are ringing."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Jacob picks Omar Morales, citing experience and technical striking. He thinks Chris Duncan is slower than Uros Medic and not as relentless a wrestler as Jonathan Pearce, who beat Morales. He believes Morales can touch up Duncan on the feet and that Duncan will default to wrestling, where Morales is no joke on the ground.

"I am on the Omar side I think experience plays a big factor in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Morales is a disciplined striker with good distance management and kicks, while Duncan is a brawler who leaves himself open to counters. Morales should use his technical advantage to pick Duncan apart from range, likely winning a decision. If Duncan gets reckless, Morales could even get a knockout.

"I think he's the more disciplined Striker here which is going to be the main X Factor"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Paul picks Morales, echoing that Duncan is not UFC caliber. He notes Morales used to be durable but questions his chin after the KO. He thinks Morales has a better camp and can win, but if it goes to decision, the UK crowd might favor Duncan. He says it's a pick'em price and expects fireworks.

"Omar Morales for me as well... it should be fireworks... it's probably relatively right at a at a pickum type of price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan over Omar Morales, citing Duncan's youth and toughness. He notes Duncan had a rough weight cut before his contender series loss but has since recovered. Morales is 37 and coming off a KO loss, and his competition outside the UFC is not impressive. He predicts a fun scrap with Duncan winning a 29-28 decision, having more in the tank.

Duncan wins by decision 29-28
"I'm going with Chris Duncan winning this fight by decision I reckon 29-28 in a fun scrap"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Zane also picks Morales but is cautious. He notes that Duncan is a wild brawler who gets hurt often, and Morales has the counter ability and sharpness to exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Morales's recent performances have been poor and that the fight is a referendum on where Morales is mentally.

"The matchup feels more than anything like a referendum on where Morales is at."
Bolaji Oki - Fight History
LOSS vs Manoel Sousa
KO R3 4:12 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bolaji Oki 0 84 of 170 49% 108 of 196 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:23
Manoel Sousa 2 71 of 179 39% 86 of 196 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bolaji Oki 0 20 of 26 76% 42 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:51
Manoel Sousa 1 10 of 21 47% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:59
2 Bolaji Oki 0 32 of 72 44% 34 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Manoel Sousa 0 13 of 66 19% 15 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Bolaji Oki 0 32 of 72 44% 32 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Manoel Sousa 1 48 of 92 52% 48 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bolaji Oki 84 of 170 49% 42 of 111 28 of 44 14 of 15 62 of 143 17 of 19 5 of 8
Manoel Sousa 71 of 179 39% 48 of 150 16 of 21 7 of 8 62 of 161 8 of 14 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bolaji Oki 20 of 26 76% 8 of 14 9 of 9 3 of 3 3 of 7 12 of 12 5 of 7
Manoel Sousa 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 12 5 of 5 1 of 4
2 Bolaji Oki 32 of 72 44% 16 of 49 11 of 18 5 of 5 28 of 65 4 of 6 0 of 1
Manoel Sousa 13 of 66 19% 7 of 56 4 of 8 2 of 2 12 of 61 1 of 5 0 of 0
3 Bolaji Oki 32 of 72 44% 18 of 48 8 of 17 6 of 7 31 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Manoel Sousa 48 of 92 52% 33 of 76 10 of 11 5 of 5 46 of 88 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Angelo picks Manoel Sousa, praising his incredible aggression, power, and pace. He notes that Bolaji Oki is a dangerous striker but fades significantly, and Sousa can go a full 15 minutes. He also mentions Sousa's win over Mauricio Ruffy and believes the UFC will invest in him.

"Manuel Souza is gonna be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Big Brady picks Manoel Sousa to win by third-round knockout. He likes Sousa's pressure style, power, and gas tank, and questions Oki's chin and durability. He notes Oki has been hurt and slowed down in fights, and believes Sousa will break him as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Oki has a path via wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for 15 minutes.

"give me Emanuel Souza to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Cody picks Sousa, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Oki's poor cardio and decision-making. He thinks Sousa will catch Oki as he tires.

"It's Sza for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Connor also picks Oki, emphasizing that Sousa has learned all the wrong things and lacks defensive acumen. He notes that Oki is fearless and a fantastic athlete, while Sousa is designed to snipe opponents who are afraid of him. Connor believes Oki's functional rawness will prevail over Sousa's flawed style.

Oki opened at +170, currently +230; Sousa opened at -200, dropped to -400, currently -270
"Sosa's raw in a way where it's like, Oh, you have learned all the wrong things. Yeah. So I'll take Oki as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

James picks Manoel Sousa to win by knockout, citing his power, pace, and pressure. He notes Oki's questionable chin and tendency to gas out after a fast start. He acknowledges Oki's grappling upside but believes Sousa's relentless style will overwhelm him.

"I'm going to pick Mammo Soua to win via knockout here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

The host picks Sousa to win by knockout but is hesitant about the high price. He believes Sousa's Muay Thai and power will eventually land on Oki, but acknowledges Oki's own power and the possibility of an upset. He would prefer the line closer to -185 and suggests waiting for better odds. He notes that Sousa's grappling improvement and learning from the Perez fight will help him keep the fight standing.

Sousa by KO
"I think Sosa ends up landing the big enough shot to put Oki away here. I'm not so confident to the point that I would have played him at minus 300... I think -255 a little bit wide."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Paul picks Sousa, noting his power and technical striking. He thinks Oki's cardio and ring IQ are issues. He expects Sousa to win by knockout.

"I think Sza has the way better uh the way better ground game and uh maybe he's coming into his own."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Manoel Sousa

The Guru picks Manoel Sousa, citing his crafty veteran experience from Bellator and his ability to work into fights. He notes that Oki is explosive but fades after the first round, and that Sousa has the durability and finishing ability to take over in later rounds. He predicts a TKO in round 2 or 3.

Prediction: round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to go with Manel Sousa... round two or three TKO finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Zane picks Bolaji Oki, noting that Sousa is a raw fighter with poor defense and a tendency to lunge in without setup. He believes Oki's athleticism and fearlessness will overwhelm Sousa, who struggles against aggressive opponents. Zane compares the fight to Oki's bout with Timmy Kwamba, where Oki's functional rawness outperformed Kwamba's flawed style.

Oki opened at +170, currently +230; Sousa opened at -200, dropped to -400, currently -270
"I'll take Oki as well. What is it? It's weird. That's a weird, lightweight fight of like, yeah, they're both prospects technically, but like, I dunno, not fighters."
LOSS vs Mason Jones
KO R2 3:18 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bolaji Oki 1 38 of 99 38% 40 of 101 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Mason Jones 1 57 of 136 41% 67 of 147 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bolaji Oki 1 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Mason Jones 1 20 of 57 35% 25 of 62 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:16
2 Bolaji Oki 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mason Jones 0 37 of 79 46% 42 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bolaji Oki 38 of 99 38% 26 of 76 8 of 19 4 of 4 34 of 85 0 of 0 4 of 14
Mason Jones 57 of 136 41% 52 of 128 2 of 3 3 of 5 23 of 84 2 of 3 32 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bolaji Oki 29 of 73 39% 21 of 61 6 of 10 2 of 2 25 of 59 0 of 0 4 of 14
Mason Jones 20 of 57 35% 17 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 4 12 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 10
2 Bolaji Oki 9 of 26 34% 5 of 15 2 of 9 2 of 2 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mason Jones 37 of 79 46% 35 of 77 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 40 0 of 0 26 of 39
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Angelo slightly leans towards Mason Jones, citing his superior wrestling and ability to frustrate Oki with a busy jab. He notes that Oki struggles when backing up and that Jones' offensive takedowns are better. He calls it a competitive fight but thinks Jones' wrestling gives him the edge.

"Mason Jones is going to be the pick because I think he's just slightly better with the wrestling."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki in a close fight, citing Oki's high volume and power. He questions Mason Jones' fight IQ, noting he didn't grapple when he should have. He expects the fight to stay standing and go to a split decision, with Oki landing the bigger shots.

Oki by decision
"I'll say Oki wins this fight, but it's all up to what the crooked corrupt judges think. I think it's a close decision. Going to be Oi. Oki by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Connor also picks Jones, agreeing that Oki is undercooked and that Jones's fully formed game can handle a variety of opponents. He notes that Oki's technique falls apart when the fight gets out of control, and Jones will exploit that. He sees Jones as a much more reliable fighter at this level.

"Jones just has a much more fully formed, fleshed out game capable of dealing with a variety of opponents."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mason Jones

The host acknowledges the fight is a potential fight of the night contender and notes the odds are shifting towards Oki. However, he picks Jones due to his experience and ability to mix up the game better. He expects Jones to land more damage, outgrapple Oki, and win on the scorecards as the fight goes into deeper waters.

"I think Jones is just a little bit more experienced, can really mix up the game a lot better than Okei. And I think once this fight gets into deeper waters, Jones should be able to pull away with the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mason Jones

The Guru picks Mason Jones, acknowledging Oki's speed and power but noting Jones' granite chin and grinding style. He believes Jones' grappling and cardio will wear Oki down as the fight progresses. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Jones losing the first round but taking over in the second and third.

"I'm going to go with Mason Jones. I'm going to go Mason Jones."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Zane picks Mason Jones because he is a known quantity with a durable, aggressive style that will test Oki's inexperience. He notes that Oki has physical talent but poor footwork and decision-making, and that Jones will turn the fight into a brawl where Oki is uncomfortable. He believes Jones's wrestling and durability will be key.

"I got a big Mason Jones. Like Okey has the physical talent to make this fight bad for Jones. But if he can't avoid a brawl, then Jones is much more difficult to take momentum from than either of those …"
CANCEL vs Marquel Mederos
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Angelo picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his cleaner striking technique and defensive soundness. He believes Mederos can use his jab to get through Bolaji Oki's guard and that Oki's power and speed will be less effective as he slows down. He also mentions a potential plus 3.5 round spread bet.

Mentions a potential plus 3.5 round spread bet on Mederos.
"I am going with Markeel Maderos here. He is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady likes Bolaji Oki's volume and power, noting his strong performance against Chris Duncan before getting caught in a guillotine. He criticizes Marquel Mederos for close fights against lower-level opponents like Lanni Quinonez and Austin Hubbard, and believes Oki can out-strike and potentially out-grapple Mederos. He picks Oki by decision.

by decision
"I like Oki here. You know, Oki's a very good fighter. I like the volume, you know, in that Chris Duncan fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his versatility in multiple ranges (clinch, inside, distance) compared to Bolaji Oki who is primarily effective at range. He notes Mederos' composure and Oki's occasional overzealousness. He predicts a TKO in later rounds or a decision win.

"I'm actually going to go with Markeel Madios here. He's an underdog... I think Markeel Maderos is more effective in more different ranges than Bellagio is."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bolaji Oki 0 136 of 303 44% 136 of 303 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 118 of 309 38% 118 of 309 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bolaji Oki 0 36 of 92 39% 36 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 24 of 84 28% 24 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bolaji Oki 0 54 of 108 50% 54 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 42 of 100 42% 42 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bolaji Oki 0 46 of 103 44% 46 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 52 of 125 41% 52 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bolaji Oki 136 of 303 44% 92 of 243 36 of 48 8 of 12 135 of 300 1 of 3 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 118 of 309 38% 92 of 270 19 of 29 7 of 10 117 of 305 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bolaji Oki 36 of 92 39% 23 of 75 9 of 11 4 of 6 36 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 24 of 84 28% 16 of 72 3 of 4 5 of 8 24 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bolaji Oki 54 of 108 50% 31 of 77 19 of 25 4 of 6 53 of 106 1 of 2 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 42 of 100 42% 35 of 87 6 of 12 1 of 1 42 of 98 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Bolaji Oki 46 of 103 44% 38 of 91 8 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 52 of 125 41% 41 of 111 10 of 13 1 of 1 51 of 123 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Aswell vs. Bolaji Oki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oki (-375), Aswell (+300)

Round 1
Ever the internationally focused organization, where else can one find a tried-and-true Texan throwing down with a “Zulu Warrior” from Belgium? Right here in the Octagon is where it’s at, as “The Texas Kid” Aswell (10-2, 0-0 UFC) has made it to the promotion after riding the wave of Fury FC for a few years. He meets Oki (9-2, 1-1 UFC), who would like nothing more than to punch a hole in Aswell’s chest a la Ray Longo. The third man in the cage for this lightweight affair will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks the two in as they bump fists. It’s off to the races for these two, who quickly engage quickly with stern right hands. Oki sinks down a heavy low kick, and the two crash together. Oki backs off and pushes out a few jabs, and he swings a leg kick that makes him topple over. Aswell cannot reach him before he recovers, but he does walk Oki down and try to nail him with a right hand. Instead, it is Oki who clubs Aswell, with a nasty right hand followed by a left to the body. Oki does this again, walking through Aswell’s hammers that are swinging at the same time. Aswell calms himself down to toss out a few calf kicks, and he dodges a hook to clip Oki with a right hand. Oki shows no ill effects, and Aswell walks him down with his jab outstretched. Oki drills Aswell on the temple with a straight right hand, and Aswell busts him in the chops and may have hurt him for a second as Oki retreats. It does not take long for Oki to get back to lobbing bombs, and he mixes in a few body shots but gets popped on the way out. These two are trading effectively and flush on one another, and their chins are holding up at the three-minute mark but the pace may not be maintainable as they continue. The right hand from Oki splits a cut on the corner of Aswell’s left eyebrow, with the blood leaking into his eye slightly but not hampering his sight. Aswell still nails Oki with heavy hands, setting them up with jabs and knocking him back with a pair of rights. Aswell connects with another right, walks through a jab and fires off a right hook. Oki snaps his head back with a long jab, and his left hook to the belly finds its home a couple times. Both lightweights land hard at the end of the round, with Aswell knocking Oki back a step and possibly stealing the round with one concussive blow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aswell

Round 2
A glove touch prompts the lightweights to get right in front of one another and punch. Oki backs him off with a step-in knee and tries to chain a high kick into it, but it is Aswell who stands firm and punches him square in the stomach. Oki sits down on big punches, but Aswell is able to roll with them just enough to not get his chin checked. Oki times another knee when Aswell steps in, and he slips back and tags Aswell as Aswell rushes at him. Oki measures several more body shots, and Aswell busts him in the chops with a right hand. Aswell fires off another right hook that snaps the head to the side, and Oki sticks his tongue out and puts three fists on Aswell’s face in rapid succession. Aswell lands a few punches, and Oki spins with a back kick to the belly. Aswell connects with two punches and is out of the way before getting countered, and he steps in and bops Oki in the chops with a left. Oki knocks him back thanks to his power punches, and he works a left to the ribs and a right up top. They both land at the same time, and Oki dodges an elbow to send Aswell retreating. Oki chains a knee into a right hand, and Aswell is tough as nails but is standing still when Oki puts hands on him. Aswell goes for two, and Oki’s lead jab and check hook to the damage. Oki knees his foe again, and he trips as he swings for the fences and recovers quickly. Oki takes a low kick on the calf and drills Aswell with a short combo, forcing the Texan to ricochet off the wall. Oki’s right hand further pounds Aswell on the jaw, and he jumps forward with a knee that flies past his foe on the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki

Round 3
One final glove touch kicks off the last round, and Oki starts off quickly with a jab and a chin-shaking right hand. Aswell displays near otherworldly durability as Oki is not taking it easy on him, but it is Oki in the driver’s seat. The power is substantially in his favor, and he has Aswell reacting to his strikes while he largely shrugs off the ones coming back his way. Even with Aswell’s likely higher volume, the right and left hooks from Oki are far more impactful. A few such hooks land on the chin, and Oki eats a counter, pats himself on the head to ask Aswell to bring it on and throws back. Oki leads off with his left hook, and three punches of his back Aswell up to the fence. Oki continue to chase after his opponent as Aswell is in retreat mode now, and he keeps his guard high to let Aswell’s swings bounce off him. Oki takes a hard right hand, and when Aswell doubles up his jab, Oki smiles at him and asks for more. Aswell obliges, but not before Oki clips him again hard. The strike totals are sky-high in this fight and the numbers are likely quite close, but Oki has figured out how to put volume together while still hitting Aswell harder than he gets hit back. Oki marks up Aswell’s left eye with his power right hand, and Aswell is looking for answers as his mighty swings seem to have no effect on the Belgian. Oki walks into and through a right hand, and he winds up with three hearty swings that bounce Aswell’s head around. Oki is determined to swing it out to the bell, and he does just that.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)

The Official Result
Bolaji Oki def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Matt picks Bolaji Oki to win by decision. He highlights Oki's power punching and ability to maintain his gas tank over three rounds, while Aswell is a basic pressure fighter moving up a weight class on short notice. He expects Oki to land the more eye-catching shots and win on the scorecards, noting Aswell's durability but lack of power.

over 2.5 rounds -140 to -150 (intriguing)
"I'm going to go with Oki by decision."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

Angelo picks Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady because of his relentless pressure and ability to maintain pace, while Bolaji Oki tends to slow down as fights go on. He notes that Al-Selwady had a full camp and is a pressure striker who mixes in takedowns. He acknowledges that Oki is a tough opponent with a good jab and fast sprawls, but believes Al-Selwady's cardio and pressure will be the difference.

Expects odds movement; advises to take advantage of early lines.
"I'm sticking with alati he had the full Camp he has the incredible pressure bagok slows down over time alawa does not so I'm going alati here"
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan as an underdog. He believes Duncan's willingness to stand in the pocket and pump a jab non-stop will frustrate Oki, who has defensive issues and gets hit often. Duncan's durability and ability to survive being dropped are key factors. Angelo notes he might sprinkle a small bet if Duncan's line becomes a bigger underdog.

might sprinkle a dollar or two if line moves to high pluses
"Chris Duncan's gonna win this fight... Chris has that solid jab... Chris has what seems like a very good chin..."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki but is hesitant due to Chris Duncan's poor striking defense (49%) and tendency to walk into shots. He notes Oki has power and could hurt Duncan, but thinks the fight could be close and competitive. He expects Oki to win by decision, possibly dropping Duncan at some point.

Oki by decision
"I'm going to take Oki here um I'm going to take him to win this fight either I'll say by decision maybe he hurts Duncan here or there maybe it drops him but I'm going to say Oki wins this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody leans towards Duncan as an underdog, citing Oki's questionable cardio and takedown defense. He notes that Duncan has wrestling and can take Oki down, potentially tiring him. However, he acknowledges Oki's power and the risk of getting knocked out. He doesn't plan to bet heavily.

"I'll side with Duncan strictly because these new gloves have ruined Knockouts"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Cody picks Bolaji Oki as his tournament play, highlighting his physicality, power, and early knockout potential. He notes Oki is minus 105 to win inside the distance and that Chris Duncan has been badly hurt in past fights. Cody believes Oki is a more technical and powerful striker with better durability, making him a sneaky tournament target at 8.8k.

win inside the distance (-105)
"I'm going to throw Bolaji Oki here at 8.8k against Chris Duncan... he's minus 105 to win inside the distance."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oki is a much cruder fighter despite being a better athlete. He thinks Duncan's experience and ability to game plan will be key. Connor also mentions that Duncan has shown flexibility in his approach, which should help him avoid Oki's early power.

"I think it's all backwards."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Daniel Vreeland picks Bolaji Oki to win by knockout. He thinks Oki is much faster and more powerful on the feet, and that Duncan is hittable and slow. He notes Oki's good takedown defense and counter-striking. He expects Oki to hurt Duncan and finish him, possibly with body shots.

wins by KO
"I'm going to pick hoki to to find a KO here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

JP picks Bolaji Oki because of his power and nine-fight win streak. He notes Oki has never been finished and Chris Duncan has been KO'd by Slava Claus and submitted by Manuel Torres, which he views as poor performances. JP believes Oki's power will be too much for Duncan.

"give me uh Oki by KO okay [ __ ] Duncan no way you're getting submitted by a bum like Torres"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Paul leans towards Oki, believing his power will eventually catch Duncan, who has a questionable chin. He notes that Oki's takedown defense is a concern, but Duncan's wrestling isn't elite. He expects Oki to land a knockout at some point, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I think at some point Oki just melts him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki over Chris Duncan, citing Oki's superior speed and fluidity. He notes that Duncan is slow for the division and hasn't impressed, while Oki looked technical in his UFC debut. He predicts Oki will land more damaging shots and win by decision.

"I'm going to go with bagok I think he'll just be a little bit more fluid a little bit more fast twist and I think that might be the difference in this fight so I'm going to pick him by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Duncan as an experience pick, noting that Duncan is reasonably well-rounded and can game plan. He thinks Duncan can lean on wrestling or aggressive striking to pressure Oki. However, he acknowledges Duncan has meltdown potential, but Oki doesn't have a grappling threat to trouble Duncan.

"My instinct is Duncan for what is essentially an experience pick."
WIN vs Timmy Cuamba
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bolaji Oki 0 60 of 152 39% 61 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Timmy Cuamba 0 33 of 94 35% 35 of 96 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bolaji Oki 0 29 of 61 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Timmy Cuamba 0 9 of 43 20% 9 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Timmy Cuamba 0 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:55
3 Bolaji Oki 0 21 of 66 31% 21 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Timmy Cuamba 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bolaji Oki 60 of 152 39% 51 of 139 5 of 8 4 of 5 58 of 145 1 of 4 1 of 3
Timmy Cuamba 33 of 94 35% 20 of 67 8 of 14 5 of 13 26 of 86 5 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bolaji Oki 29 of 61 47% 24 of 55 1 of 1 4 of 5 28 of 56 0 of 2 1 of 3
Timmy Cuamba 9 of 43 20% 5 of 30 1 of 3 3 of 10 9 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 10 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 11 of 21 52% 9 of 15 1 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 14 4 of 5 2 of 2
3 Bolaji Oki 21 of 66 31% 17 of 60 4 of 6 0 of 0 20 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 13 of 30 43% 6 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Timothy Cuamba vs. Bolaji Oki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
On August 29, 2023, both Oki (8-1, 0-0 UFC) and Cuamba (8-1, 0-0 UFC) competed on the fourth episode of Dana White’s Contender Series in its 2023 season. Both men ended up getting their hands raised—Oki by knockout, and Cuamba by decision—and the former was signed. The latter went back to the regionals, where he fought at Tuff-N-Uff, the former all-amateur promotion, and smoked Michael Stack just one week ago. The round robin of fighters ends with this lightweight pairing of 8-1 newcomers, and it will be joined in the cage by referee Chris Tognoni. There is no plan on touching gloves, as they would rather get down to business. Oki presents himself as the immediate aggressor, chasing Cuamba down and reaching out with a low kick and some wide punches. Cuamba does not engage with much of his own offense in the opening 90 seconds, but for a few jabs and low kicks. Oki throws back one leg kick and unloads with two big right hands that mark up Cuamba’s face. Cuamba looses a right hand of his own back Oki off, but Oki is driving jabs to the increasingly red eye of his opponent. Oki times an advancing Cuamba with a short right, and the offense slows down from both parties. Oki shuffles in place as he tosses out a single right hand, and when that misses, Cuamba lets rip two overhand rights. Oki pokes out several more jabs and avoids the counter, and he lands a low kick with an audible thud. Cuamba comes back with a jab and slings a right hand after it, and he presses forward but pulls back before shooting. Oki gladly remains in boxing range, jabbing his opponent up, until Cuamba spurs into action with a head kick. Oki catches it and pushes Cuamba to the floor, where he unloads with a series of punches until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki

Round 2
The lightweights reach out to exchange a glove touch to start off the round, and Oki starts to chase Cuamba around the cage with jabs. Cuamba looks to mix things up with low kicks, but Oki walks through it and doubles up a jab to nail Cuamba with a right hand. Cuamba comes back with a two-punch combination, but it does not fluster Oki in the slightest. Oki continues to jab without fear of reprisal, and even when a counter comes from Cuamba, it is one-and-done. Oki peppers his man with a jab and occasional follow-up punches, and Cuamba attacks in response with a single-leg takedown effort. Oki backs up to the wall in defense, and he stifles Cuamba from getting him down and ends up taking Cuamba’s back in the process. Oki considers a rear-naked choke but falls off the side, although he gets a single hook in momentarily. Cuamba turns him back and stays doggedly pursuing the single, and he transitions to a double and manages to ground Oki after all. Cuamba steps over to the side and sits in an open half guard as he postures up to elbow Oki. When Oki sits up, Cuamba considers a guillotine choke at the 10-second clapper. Oki stands up, ignores a few elbows on the side of his head, and he hangs on as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba

Round 3
The final round commences as Oki looks to pick up where he left off on the feet with a veritable cornucopia of jabs. Cuamba attempts a kick, but Oki is too close and irritating him with jabs. Oki drops his hands and puts them behind his back to showboat, and Cuamba punches him square in the face. Oki continues to march forward with jabs outstretched, and he surprises his adversary by attempting a level change. Cuamba pushes him away and returns to kickboxing range. Oki welcomes this by reintroducing his jab to the face of his opponent, and he is light enough on his feet to dodge the counters that careen his direction. Cuamba sneaks out a left hand as he gets constantly driven back, but he cannot seem to stop the methodical strategy of “The Zulu Warrior.” Cuamba tries to swing for the fences, and Oki watches them soar past him. Oki sprawls to stop a takedown, and he marches down Cuamba and strings four punches together. Oki catches Cuamba with an uppercut, as he puts a bit more mustard on his punches with less than a minute to go. Cuamba keeps circling and absorbing punches, and he occasionally looks for a brawl but is telegraphing the majority of his power strikes. Oki fearlessly presses ahead with punches in bunches, gets in a knee, and reaches out with a Superman punch right before this lackluster offering comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)

The Official Result
Bolaji Oki def. Timothy Cuamba via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Angelo describes Bolaji Oki as a busy striker with a good jab, power, and fast sprawl, though he slows down. He notes that Timmy Cuamba (referred to as deir hadzic) is an okay striker who relies on closing distance and takedowns, but his wide strikes leave him open to counters. Angelo believes Oki can defend takedowns and land effectively, and picks him to win. He suggests under 2.5 rounds might make sense.

under 2.5 rounds might make sense
"I think BAGI wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki to win by decision. He notes that Oki has many ways to win, including wrestling, as Cuamba has the worst takedown defense in the lightweight division. He thinks Oki can brawl on the feet but can also take Cuamba down easily. He is not laying -300 on a debutant but picks Oki.

"give me bagok to win this fight and I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Cody picks Oki, noting his size and power. He thinks Cuamba is taking the fight on short notice and moving up a weight class, which are disadvantages. Oki has shown good wrestling and knockout power. Cody expects Oki to land the bigger shots and win by decision or late stoppage.

"I got to go with baji Oki who again debut and do you want to pay the money line and blah blah blah blah blah like the the guy's explosive"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Oki is a young, powerful striker with speed and explosiveness. He should be able to find an early knockout against the aging and injury-returning Hadzovic. Hadzovic's ring rust and knee surgery recovery are major concerns. Oki's power will be too much, and he should win by first-round knockout.

"I got to lean with Oki as I think he should be able to uh find that early knockout here I think his speed and power is going to be too much for hadzovic and that ring rust is going …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Paul also picks Oki, citing size and preparation. He notes Cuamba fought last week and is moving up, which could affect his performance. Oki is the more proven prospect. Paul is not planning to bet it but leans Oki.

"I'll side with size here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki because he is a dangerous athlete with good reach and power, and he is facing Timothy Cuamba on short notice. He recalls Oki's nasty first-round finish on the Contender Series. He notes that Cuamba is moving up from featherweight and taking the fight on short notice, which he sees as a disadvantage.

"I just think BAGI is too much of a presence and he's got too much power for a heavweight coming up so yeah I don't like this for a couple days notice."
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan as an underdog. He believes Duncan's willingness to stand in the pocket and pump a jab non-stop will frustrate Oki, who has defensive issues and gets hit often. Duncan's durability and ability to survive being dropped are key factors. Angelo notes he might sprinkle a small bet if Duncan's line becomes a bigger underdog.

might sprinkle a dollar or two if line moves to high pluses
"Chris Duncan's gonna win this fight... Chris has that solid jab... Chris has what seems like a very good chin..."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki but is hesitant due to Chris Duncan's poor striking defense (49%) and tendency to walk into shots. He notes Oki has power and could hurt Duncan, but thinks the fight could be close and competitive. He expects Oki to win by decision, possibly dropping Duncan at some point.

Oki by decision
"I'm going to take Oki here um I'm going to take him to win this fight either I'll say by decision maybe he hurts Duncan here or there maybe it drops him but I'm going to say Oki wins this fight and wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Cody picks Bolaji Oki as his tournament play, highlighting his physicality, power, and early knockout potential. He notes Oki is minus 105 to win inside the distance and that Chris Duncan has been badly hurt in past fights. Cody believes Oki is a more technical and powerful striker with better durability, making him a sneaky tournament target at 8.8k.

win inside the distance (-105)
"I'm going to throw Bolaji Oki here at 8.8k against Chris Duncan... he's minus 105 to win inside the distance."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody leans towards Duncan as an underdog, citing Oki's questionable cardio and takedown defense. He notes that Duncan has wrestling and can take Oki down, potentially tiring him. However, he acknowledges Oki's power and the risk of getting knocked out. He doesn't plan to bet heavily.

"I'll side with Duncan strictly because these new gloves have ruined Knockouts"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oki is a much cruder fighter despite being a better athlete. He thinks Duncan's experience and ability to game plan will be key. Connor also mentions that Duncan has shown flexibility in his approach, which should help him avoid Oki's early power.

"I think it's all backwards."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Daniel Vreeland picks Bolaji Oki to win by knockout. He thinks Oki is much faster and more powerful on the feet, and that Duncan is hittable and slow. He notes Oki's good takedown defense and counter-striking. He expects Oki to hurt Duncan and finish him, possibly with body shots.

wins by KO
"I'm going to pick hoki to to find a KO here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

JP picks Bolaji Oki because of his power and nine-fight win streak. He notes Oki has never been finished and Chris Duncan has been KO'd by Slava Claus and submitted by Manuel Torres, which he views as poor performances. JP believes Oki's power will be too much for Duncan.

"give me uh Oki by KO okay [ __ ] Duncan no way you're getting submitted by a bum like Torres"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Paul leans towards Oki, believing his power will eventually catch Duncan, who has a questionable chin. He notes that Oki's takedown defense is a concern, but Duncan's wrestling isn't elite. He expects Oki to land a knockout at some point, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I think at some point Oki just melts him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki over Chris Duncan, citing Oki's superior speed and fluidity. He notes that Duncan is slow for the division and hasn't impressed, while Oki looked technical in his UFC debut. He predicts Oki will land more damaging shots and win by decision.

"I'm going to go with bagok I think he'll just be a little bit more fluid a little bit more fast twist and I think that might be the difference in this fight so I'm going to pick him by decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Duncan as an experience pick, noting that Duncan is reasonably well-rounded and can game plan. He thinks Duncan can lean on wrestling or aggressive striking to pressure Oki. However, he acknowledges Duncan has meltdown potential, but Oki doesn't have a grappling threat to trouble Duncan.

"My instinct is Duncan for what is essentially an experience pick."