Taylor Lapilus vs Vince Morales

Taylor Lapilus vs. Vince Morales

Round 1
Many have forgotten this, but both Lapilus (20-4, 5-2 UFC) and Morales (16-7, 3-5 UFC) are on their second stints with the promotion. The Frenchman was let go in 2016 despite going 3-1 with the organization, while “Vandetta” is on the rough side of .500 looking up. The bantamweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Marc Goddard, and they touch ‘em up while he dons his proverbial hard hat. Even in the prelims, the crowd is nearly deafening in support of the French fighter. There is no glove touch, as Lapilus takes to the center of the cage and puts a series of hands on the American. Lapilus ends his combo with a thudding head kick, and Morales pays it no mind. Lapilus goes high with another kick that glances off the shoulder, and a third is close to chin-checking Morales. Lapilus chops at the front calf, and the two are coiled springs ready to release as they stand in front of one another. Lapilus prods out jabs, and Morales reaches him with a right hand over the top. Morales has a kick caught, and he gets tossed to the floor and kicked on his way down. Morales stands back up and delivers a clean uppercut on the chops, only to get met with two sharp elbows from up close. They nail one another with calf kicks as fans are chanting mean things, and the fighters do not slow down from engaging. Lapilus lands first, and he uses his distance strikes to keep Morales off of him. Morales gets off at the end of a left hand, and the audience shifts from saying rude words to singing the French national anthem. Lapilus turns up the heat as the song draws to a close, ringing Morales’ bell with a fast flurry of fists. Lapilus plants a knee to the chest, and a left hand opens a cut on Morales’ right eyebrow. Lapilus drives a one-two down the pipe, and he blocks a high body kick to give two punches and a knee back. Morales drops to a knee and explodes back up before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus

Round 2
Morales starts the round aggressively, only to walk into a number of quick jabs that rap off his forehead. Lapilus splits the guard with a left hand, and he slips Morales’ punches to back him off. Morales just manages to avoid a high kick as he slides to the side, but he cannot stop a body kick from slamming into his ribs. Morales uses the kick to lift Lapilus off the ground, where he throws the Frenchman to the mat and tries to quiet the raucous crowd. Lapilus stands back up, his back to the fence, and he elbows Morales hard on the dome. Morales responds with a knee, and Lapilus tags him with two more elbows to the cut. Lapilus lets his hands go, walking Morales down with short salvos of feet and fists. Two jabs from Lapilus get through, and Morales scores back. The French fighter scores with a pair of body kicks, and he slips and jumps right back to his feet before Morales can get to him. “Double Impact” drives a double right hand over the top, and he follows the second blow with a left hand and a body kick. Hand-fighting with his opponent, Lapilus times a left hand and a huge knee that smashes into Morales’ face and sends a gob of saliva soaring across the cage. Morales is tough as a stale baguette, not even wavering from the powerful strike. Instead, he comes back harder than before, winging a huge right hand that Lapilus cannot quite avoid. Lapilus absorbs it and fires back, leading to Morales shooting in for a single-leg takedown. Morales wraps up one leg but is unable to ground him, and Lapilus elbows him to force a break and spin away as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus

Round 3
It takes little more than 10 seconds for Morales to shoot for a takedown, opening the round up by putting Lapilus on the defensive. Morales succeeds in driving the French fighter to the wall, where he elevates Lapilus’ right leg and deposits him to the floor. In the span of a second, Lapilus powers right back to his feet, and he pushes Morales away. As Morales backpedals, Lapilus drives a knee to the liver and puts his hands on Morales’ chin. Lapilus uses his close range to slash at Morales with elbows, and his head movement and footwork keeps him safe from the telegraphed, winging strikes of “Vandetta.” Lapilus jabs with the ball of his foot, sticking and poking with strikes from his preferred berth. Lapilus lands the better of an exchange with a left hook, but Morales connects with his own power punches to get Lapilus’ attention. Four punches get through before Lapilus can make him pay with a knee, and blood flows from the American’s cut once more. Lapilus times a left hand to drive a knee into Morales’ sternum, and Morales desperately responds with a tackling takedown where he pushes Lapilus from one end of the cage to the other. Morales manages to take Lapilus for a ride, lifting him up and slamming him down while landing in a top-side leg triangle out of the Khabib Nurmagomedov playbook. Lapilus does not care about the leg position, exploding upright and surging into action. Two big knees score cleanly for the Frenchman, and Morales knows this is his last time to shine. Morales rushes after Lapilus, putting everything he has into swinging fists. Lapilus absorbs some punishment and doles it out, with the two laying into one another until a clinch ensues. Lapilus pushes out of it, and he spins with an elbow that grazes the melon of “Vandetta.” The match draws to a close, and the crowd is on its feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus (30-27 Lapilus)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus (30-27 Lapilus)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus (30-27 Lapilus)

The Official Result
Taylor Lapilus def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Angelo is very confident in Taylor Lapilus. He praises Lapilus's footwork, counter-striking, and takedown defense. He expects Vince Morales to come out looking for an early finish, but Lapilus will weather the storm and piece him apart. The only concern is if Morales has improved like Youssef Zalal did after being cut, but Angelo doesn't think so.

"I think Taylor runs right through him... he weathers an early storm and then pieces Vince apart the rest of that fight."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Big Brady picks Taylor Lapilus by decision, noting Lapilus has superior striking and takedown defense. He mentions Morales has been on a good run since being cut but is being brought back against a tough opponent in Paris. He expects Lapilus to win a clear decision with home-cage advantage.

Lapilus by decision

"lapis lapis by decision I think is the the pretty pretty clear pick"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Cody picks Lapilus, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes that Morales' wrestling hasn't translated to the UFC and that Lapilus should outpoint him with volume and movement. He expects a unanimous decision win for Lapilus.

"lapas just it may be uh decision it might just be Point fighting from the outside"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Connor agrees, noting that Morales is a good regional fighter but not a good UFC fighter. He points out that Morales has a slow pace, can get kicked to hell, and is easy to put on his heels. Lapilus should be able to out-slick him.

"Gotta take Lapolas here."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Daniel Vreeland picks Taylor Lapilus to win by decision. He thinks Lapilus is a solid striker with good defense and takedown defense, and that Morales is a step below. He notes that Lapilus has been taken down in every UFC fight but has good get-up game. He expects Lapilus to use leg kicks and movement to win a clear decision.

"I think laus win I was like maybe they give us a decent price on laus decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

JP picks Taylor Lapilus because he thinks Lapilus is better everywhere and has power. He notes Morales was released from the UFC in 2022 and came back, which he views negatively. He predicts Lapilus will starch him by KO.

"I think lapis is uh starching him I think he's better on the feet I think he's powerful I like lapis a lot give me a lapolis by KO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Paul agrees, noting Lapilus' excellent get-up game and striking. He believes Morales' wrestling won't be effective and that Lapilus will out-strike him clearly. He expects a unanimous decision.

"lapis should double him up in strikes and uh probably win a very clear unanimous decision"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

The MMA Guru picks Taylor Lapilus over Vince Morales, describing Lapilus as awkward and tricky to fight. He notes Morales' past UFC struggles and Lapilus' reach advantage despite being shorter. He predicts a split decision win for Lapilus.

"I'm going to go with Taylor laulis getting this one done split the decision"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Zane thinks Lapilus is a quintessential back-foot counter striker and that Morales will struggle to come forward effectively. He notes that Morales has a fatally flawed game, is susceptible to leg kicks, and fights at a slow pace. Zane expects Lapilus to win a technical showcase.

"It's a pretty easy technical showcase for him to get Morales chasing him and just not really being able to do anything effective through chasing him at all."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Cody Stamann

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Taylor Lapilus	0	59 of 143	41%	64 of 150	1 of 6	16%	0	0	3:24
Cody Stamann	0	100 of 180	55%	107 of 190	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:27

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Taylor Lapilus	22 of 48	45%	22 of 48	0 of 1	0%	0:54
1	Cody Stamann	30 of 58	51%	30 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:01
2	Taylor Lapilus	22 of 49	44%	24 of 51	0 of 2	0%	0:36
2	Cody Stamann	35 of 66	53%	40 of 74	0 of 0	---	0:26
3	Taylor Lapilus	15 of 46	32%	18 of 51	1 of 3	33%	1:54
3	Cody Stamann	35 of 56	62%	37 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Taylor Lapilus	59 of 143	41%	23 of 101	28 of 33	8 of 9	47 of 125	12 of 18	0 of 0
Cody Stamann	100 of 180	55%	60 of 132	25 of 31	15 of 17	84 of 162	16 of 18	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Taylor Lapilus	22 of 48	45%	10 of 32	11 of 15	1 of 1	17 of 40	5 of 8	0 of 0
1	Cody Stamann	30 of 58	51%	12 of 37	14 of 16	4 of 5	22 of 50	8 of 8	0 of 0
2	Taylor Lapilus	22 of 49	44%	8 of 33	10 of 11	4 of 5	16 of 41	6 of 8	0 of 0
2	Cody Stamann	35 of 66	53%	21 of 48	7 of 10	7 of 8	29 of 58	6 of 8	0 of 0
3	Taylor Lapilus	15 of 46	32%	5 of 36	7 of 7	3 of 3	14 of 44	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Cody Stamann	35 of 56	62%	27 of 47	4 of 5	4 of 4	33 of 54	2 of 2	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Angelo picks Taylor Lapilus, citing his superior kickboxing and outstanding takedown defense. He notes that Cody Stamann is well-rounded but lacks power, and Taylor's ability to work in and out of range should be key. However, he worries that Taylor might be too tentative like in his last fight, where he was afraid of takedowns and didn't throw enough. He thinks Taylor is the better overall fighter but the fight could be close.

"I am going to leave Taylor lean Taylor I think he's the overall strugling man call hey it's okay man"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Big Brady picks Taylor Lapilus to win by decision. He highlights Lapilus's elite takedown defense and get-up game, as well as a 9-inch reach advantage. He notes that Cody Stamann hasn't wrestled since 2020 and has only completed five takedowns, so the fight will likely stay standing where Lapilus has the edge.

"give me lapis here to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Cody picks Lapilus, noting that Stamann has been inactive and has not looked interested in wrestling recently. Lapilus is a smooth striker with good takedown defense. Cody expects Lapilus to outpoint Stamann on the feet and win a decision. He trusts Lapilus' activity and technical striking.

"I'm going to go with Lis but again I think it's just going to be close contentious type spot with Lis he's a smooth Striker Smooth Operator he likes to play to the outside he's got good leg kicks good …"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Cody Stamann

Daniel confidently picks Stamann as a plus-money underdog, arguing that Lapilus fights close decisions and doesn't run through opponents. He notes Stamann is experienced and competitive with everyone, and that the line is too wide. He expects a controversial split decision for Stamann.

controversial split decision

"I'm gonna go Cody Stamann via controversial Split Decision here"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Jacob picks Taylor Lapilus, agreeing with the odds. He notes that Taylor is probably twice the fighter Cody is, with great striking and takedown defense. Cody is tough and has boxing and wrestling, but Jacob thinks Taylor's skills should win the fight, likely by decision. He warns that the -250 odds might make people sweat because Cody is no pushover and could win rounds. He also mentions that Taylor's -3.5 round line might be risky because Taylor is not high volume.

Taylor Lapilus by decision, -3.5 rounds is risky

"I think Taylor is definitely probably the better overall fighter here I you know I do it's it's kind of a weird break down here because I do agree with the odds - 250- 275"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Lapilus has speed and striking advantage from distance, but his takedown defense is a concern. Stamann has a wrestling background but doesn't use it enough. Lapilus should land better strikes and stuff takedowns to win a decision, but the line at -265 is too wide for comfort.

"I still do end up leaning on the tailor lap side just this line is a little bit too wide for me to get comfortable with so I will pick lapis to win this fight I'll pick him to Win …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Paul picks Lapilus, noting that Stamann has not used his wrestling in recent fights and seems to have lost interest. Lapilus is the better striker and should win a competitive decision. Paul thinks Stamann's inactivity and lack of urgency will cost him.

"I side with you that like if I I really can't trust in stamman to lean on a wrestling heavy game plan um against lapis and I feel like he's going to need that type of style to win this …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

The Guru picks Lapilus because Stamann is past his prime, hasn't fought in over a year, and struggles to implement his wrestling. Lapilus is tall and rangy, making it difficult for Stamann to find the inside. He thinks Stamann's takedown attempts will be fruitless as Lapilus can frame and get back to his feet. He expects Lapilus to outwork Stamann on the inside with knees.

"Taylor lapilus is tall rangy difficult to find the inside of um and I think that's going to be a problem for Cody ston here"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Farid Basharat

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Farid Basharat	0	42 of 100	42%	55 of 116	5 of 16	31%	1	0	6:58
Taylor Lapilus	0	40 of 93	43%	41 of 94	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Farid Basharat	14 of 35	40%	20 of 41	1 of 8	12%	0	1:37
1	Taylor Lapilus	14 of 29	48%	15 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0:02
2	Farid Basharat	15 of 33	45%	18 of 37	2 of 5	40%	0	2:28
2	Taylor Lapilus	19 of 39	48%	19 of 39	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Farid Basharat	13 of 32	40%	17 of 38	2 of 3	66%	1	2:53
3	Taylor Lapilus	7 of 25	28%	7 of 25	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Farid Basharat	42 of 100	42%	14 of 53	7 of 19	21 of 28	39 of 92	2 of 5	1 of 3
Taylor Lapilus	40 of 93	43%	24 of 67	11 of 16	5 of 10	34 of 86	2 of 3	4 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Farid Basharat	14 of 35	40%	2 of 16	1 of 7	11 of 12	14 of 33	0 of 2	0 of 0
1	Taylor Lapilus	14 of 29	48%	7 of 19	6 of 6	1 of 4	8 of 22	2 of 3	4 of 4
2	Farid Basharat	15 of 33	45%	6 of 17	4 of 9	5 of 7	12 of 27	2 of 3	1 of 3
2	Taylor Lapilus	19 of 39	48%	11 of 28	5 of 7	3 of 4	19 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Farid Basharat	13 of 32	40%	6 of 20	2 of 3	5 of 9	13 of 32	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Taylor Lapilus	7 of 25	28%	6 of 20	0 of 3	1 of 2	7 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-278), Lapilus (+225)

Round 1
Treating fans next is a historic bantamweight clash pitting Afghanistan against France, as Basharat (11-0, 2-0 UFC)—who currently resides and trains in England—collides with MMA Factory’s Lapilus (19-3, 4-1 UFC). The former still has his zero intact, while the latter has earned six victories in a row, the most important of which was his last triumph that came over the highly touted Caolan Loughran. The third man in the cage will be referee Chris Tognoni, and he starts the clock as the fighters do not touch gloves. Basharat starts the fight off with two kicks up top, and Lapilus leans back to evade them. Basharat changes it up with a pair of calf kicks, and he gets in an axe kick to surprise his opponent. Lapilus aims several punches at his foe, but Basharat is able to avoid and continue scoring kicks. Basharat suddenly shoots in for a single, and he succeeds in setting the Frenchman on his seat for a second before Lapilus bounces right back up. Lapilus gets away with a fence grab as he keeps scrambling, and Basharat cannot keep his foe down for long. Lapilus defends a takedown effort by wrapping up a choke, and Basharat drops to his back in order to escape it. Lapilus gets back to striking range when both fighters get back up, and he absorbs or blocks a number of kicks from the distant man from Afghanistan. Both men land single punches, but it is Basharat who is following with kicks. When “Double Impact” attempts his own kick, Basharat snatches up his leg and dumps him to the ground. Lapilus pops back up, sneaks in a knee and pushes off. Basharat prods and pokes with low kicks, until Lapilus grabs hold of him to blast him in the chest with a knee. Basharat retreats and dodges a left hand, and he keeps his guard up to defend from a high kick. Basharat kicks the side twice and shoots for a double, and Lapilus falls to his knees and grabs the cage wall for a moment. Lapilus elbows his foe in the spine a few times to draw a pair of warnings, and Basharat pulls his legs out from beneath him to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
Lapilus turns up his volume slightly to start off the second round, and Basharat retaliates with his own kicks high and low. Lapilus slaps his foot off the side of his opponent’s head, and Basharat grabs his hand to try to keep him stuck on one position. When Basharat does this, Lapilus wraps his other foot around the top and smacks Basharat in the face. Basharat backs off and suddenly attacks with a takedown effort, but the Frenchman shuts it down much easier than before. Basharat goes to the body with a kick, and Lapilus responds with a punch and a high kick that glances off the shoulder. Lapilus is just out of his range with his fists, and he ducks away from a spinning back fist. Basharat drops down for a single, and on his second attempt, he succeeds in grounding his foe. Lapilus gets to a knee, and Basharat circles around to take his back. As this happens, Lapilus scrambles to get out of the bad position and right back to his feet. Lapilus prods out several jabs, as Basharat kicks him in the sternum. Lapilus lets his hands go as he walks Basharat down, and Basharat absorbs or blocks some of them before sprinting and tackling Lapilus to his seat. Basharat lowers himself down to trap Lapilus, sitting in half guard and shutting down any escape attempts from “Double Impact.” Lapilus tugs his toes on the fencing several times to try to improve position, and Basharat elbows him twice before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 3
The final round kicks off with both bantamweights meeting one another in the center of the cage. Basharat strikes first with a head kick attempt, and Lapilus responds with a kick that glances off the pectoral. Lapilus kicks low and punches high, and Basharat backs him off with a right hand. The two hand-fight, leading to Basharat trying to locate another head kick. Lapilus evades it and sticks out a big left hand, forcing Basharat to reset. Lapilus lands another solid left hand, and Basharat is there in his face with an overhand right. The two clash their shins together with kicks until Basharat shoots for a single. Lapilus defends and backs himself to the wall, but the London Shootfighters product is able to elevate him and dump him to his backside. Lapilus leans his back on the wall as he tries to sit up, and Basharat drags his legs down and pulls him away from the wire to stop him from wall-walking. Lapilus scoots himself towards the barrier and works his way up, and he thanks Basharat for his takedown by punching him in the face a few times. Lapilus sits down on a heavy left hand, and Basharat shakes it off. “Ferocious Farid” lashes out with a punch, a kick and a takedown try. The single allows Basharat to drag his foe to the floor, and he climbs into side control and maintains heavy chest pressure. Basharat considers moving into mount, but Lapilus defends his effort even as he is pinned to his back. Basharat grinds his elbow on the face and lands a few punches, and he looks to lock down one of Lapilus’ arms before shifting the other direction to north-south position. The space Basharat leaves allows Lapilus to turn to get out, but Basharat locks down a brabo choke that is suddenly quite tight. Lapilus manages to break the grip and explode back to his feet, and time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Taylor Lapilus via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)

Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat confidently, citing his superior wrestling and solid striking. He notes that Taylor Lapilus is a good kickboxer with decent takedown defense but was taken down twice by C.J. LaRue, and Farid is a much better wrestler. He believes Farid will win on the feet and in grappling exchanges with forward pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds and has it in a parlay.

Over 2.5 rounds in a parlay

"fared is going to win just on the feet he's going to win the grappling exchanges he's going to win with forward pressure."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Big Brady thinks the line is too wide and that Taylor Lapilus is underrated. He believes Lapilus has good takedown defense and fast hands, and if he keeps the fight standing, he can out-strike Basharat. He sees a close fight possibly going to a split decision, and picks Lapilus as a live underdog.

split decision

"I'm going to pick lapas here as as a really big dog I'm going to take him to win by decision like a split decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Cody picks Lapilus as a sizable underdog, citing his striking advantage, speed, footwork, and solid takedown defense. He believes Lapilus can stuff takedowns and outpoint Basharat on the feet. He notes that Basharat's wrestling may be overrated and that Lapilus has the experience to win a decision.

"I'm just going to plug my nose and take lapas"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Farid Basharat

Daniel Vreeland leans with Farid Basharat, praising his pace, stance switching, and relentless takedown attempts. He acknowledges Lapilus's technical striking and improved takedown defense, but thinks Basharat's pressure and ground game will be the difference. Vreeland notes that if Lapilus can keep it standing, he might have success, but Basharat's relentless style could make him hesitant.

"I'm gonna lean a little bit towards fared here."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He discusses a fight between Fared Basherat and Chris Gutierrez, which is not on the card.

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Farid Basharat

Farid Basharat is a talented 26-year-old with crisp striking and a strong grappling game, training at Extreme Couture under Jake Shields. He mixes takedowns well and has a smothering top game. Taylor Lapilus is an experienced striker with decent power but has shown vulnerability to grappling, as seen in the Colin Anglin fight. Basharat's wrestling and control should be the difference, allowing him to grind out a decision. The line at -245 is a bit wide, but Basharat's grappling advantage should secure the win.

Farid by decision, hoping for plus money on decision prop

"what I'd be looking to Target is possibly fared by decision as I think they will get at least a decent plus money spot there"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Paul picks Lapilus, echoing Cody's sentiments. He notes that Lapilus has a massive advantage on the feet and that Basharat's grappling may not be as effective against a good takedown defender. He believes Lapilus will be making his card at +235.

"at plus 235 he will 100% be making my card"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat after considering Taylor Lapilus as an underdog. He rewatched Lapilus's fight with Kyler Phillips and was unimpressed, noting Lapilus lacked versatility and didn't make reads. He believes Basharat is on a different level and will win, though he acknowledges Lapilus could stuff takedowns.

"I'm going to go fared basharat I think he's a lot better I just don't think Taylor lapus has what it takes"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Caolán Loughran

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Taylor Lapilus	0	84 of 163	51%	87 of 166	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:18
Caolán Loughran	0	48 of 132	36%	70 of 166	2 of 11	18%	0	0	6:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Taylor Lapilus	30 of 57	52%	31 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Caolán Loughran	19 of 57	33%	20 of 58	1 of 2	50%	1:47
2	Taylor Lapilus	19 of 37	51%	19 of 37	0 of 0	---	0:10
2	Caolán Loughran	8 of 21	38%	28 of 53	1 of 1	100%	2:55
3	Taylor Lapilus	35 of 69	50%	37 of 71	0 of 0	---	0:08
3	Caolán Loughran	21 of 54	38%	22 of 55	0 of 8	0%	1:44

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Taylor Lapilus	84 of 163	51%	59 of 133	18 of 23	7 of 7	76 of 150	7 of 12	1 of 1
Caolán Loughran	48 of 132	36%	28 of 100	13 of 23	7 of 9	44 of 125	3 of 6	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Taylor Lapilus	30 of 57	52%	25 of 51	5 of 6	0 of 0	27 of 52	2 of 4	1 of 1
1	Caolán Loughran	19 of 57	33%	11 of 44	7 of 10	1 of 3	17 of 53	1 of 3	1 of 1
2	Taylor Lapilus	19 of 37	51%	9 of 25	6 of 8	4 of 4	16 of 32	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Caolán Loughran	8 of 21	38%	5 of 14	2 of 6	1 of 1	7 of 20	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Taylor Lapilus	35 of 69	50%	25 of 57	7 of 9	3 of 3	33 of 66	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Caolán Loughran	21 of 54	38%	12 of 42	4 of 7	5 of 5	20 of 52	1 of 2	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)

Caolán Loughran

Angelo has a slight lean towards Caolán Loughran, trusting his forward pressure and wrestling. He compares Loughran's grit to Erin Blanchfield's. He notes Taylor Lapilus has clean striking but Loughran can march forward and stay in his face. Angelo is waiting for prop bets before betting.

waiting for prop bets to drop

"I think moween can actually win this fight... I do have a slight lean towards muine"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Big Brady picks Lapilus, impressed by his striking, takedown defense, and toughness. He notes Lapilus' previous UFC experience and superior competition compared to Loughran. He expects Lapilus to be the better striker and not be taken down, winning a decision. He questions Loughran's decision to take this tougher fight.

"I gotta go laplus to win this fight... lapless by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Cody picks Lapilus, highlighting his experience (3-1 in UFC previously), excellent kicks, defensive skills, high ring IQ, and cardio. He notes Loughran is undefeated but his competition has been weak, including opponents with losing records. Lapilus has wins over Nate Maness and Wilson Reis, while Loughran's best wins are against unproven fighters. Cody believes Lapilus's defensive grappling and takedown ability will be key.

"I gotta go with Taylor lopoulos"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Daniel Levi picks Taylor Lapilus, stating that Lapilus is a dynamic kickboxer who should light up Loughran on the feet. He notes that Loughran is a stationary target with poor defense and that Lapilus has the experience and skill advantage. Levi warns that Lapilus sometimes has low output and lets opponents back into fights, but he believes Lapilus will pick Loughran apart as long as he doesn't play with his food. He also mentions that Loughran's path to victory is via takedowns and back takes, which have troubled Lapilus in the past.

"I think laplus picks this guy apart and um yeah I I like him in the spot"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

I'm going with Lapilus here. He has a speed and distance striking advantage, and his kicking game should keep Loughran at bay. Loughran is a promising prospect but this might be too much too soon. Lapilus has good takedown defense and works well back to his feet. I think Lapilus stops Loughran by KO due to the speed advantage.

"I'm going to go with the Frenchman here I'm going to go Taylor at that place to get his hand raise and I think he gets it done via KO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Loughran's undefeated record is built on weak opposition, including two opponents with a combined 1-82 record. He says Lapilus is a proven veteran fighting in front of his home crowd, making him a justifiable favorite.

"it all kind of adds up to a justifiable favorite in Taylor laplus there"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Caolán Loughran

The MMA Guru picks Caolán Loughran, describing him as a physically strong tank who can take the fight wherever he wants. He notes Loughran's recent wins over good regional opponents and his dangerous hands, while Lapilus is a good fighter but Loughran's physicality will be too much. He predicts Loughran will squash Lapilus.

"I'm gonna side with Carolyn lochran it's a dangerous opponent for him but I am confident"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Leandro Issa

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Sep 03, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Taylor Lapilus	0	63 of 146	43%	84 of 168	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:57
Leandro Issa	0	19 of 61	31%	23 of 68	3 of 14	21%	0	0	6:29

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Taylor Lapilus	17 of 47	36%	26 of 57	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Leandro Issa	7 of 22	31%	8 of 25	2 of 7	28%	2:55
2	Taylor Lapilus	24 of 51	47%	29 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:26
2	Leandro Issa	9 of 32	28%	12 of 35	0 of 2	0%	1:01
3	Taylor Lapilus	22 of 48	45%	29 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:31
3	Leandro Issa	3 of 7	42%	3 of 8	1 of 5	20%	2:33

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Taylor Lapilus	63 of 146	43%	49 of 130	12 of 14	2 of 2	38 of 115	21 of 26	4 of 5
Leandro Issa	19 of 61	31%	6 of 38	6 of 13	7 of 10	16 of 58	3 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Taylor Lapilus	17 of 47	36%	15 of 43	2 of 4	0 of 0	10 of 39	6 of 7	1 of 1
1	Leandro Issa	7 of 22	31%	2 of 16	1 of 2	4 of 4	5 of 20	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Taylor Lapilus	24 of 51	47%	14 of 41	8 of 8	2 of 2	14 of 38	7 of 9	3 of 4
2	Leandro Issa	9 of 32	28%	3 of 19	3 of 7	3 of 6	9 of 32	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Taylor Lapilus	22 of 48	45%	20 of 46	2 of 2	0 of 0	14 of 38	8 of 10	0 of 0
3	Leandro Issa	3 of 7	42%	1 of 3	2 of 4	0 of 0	2 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 0

LOSS vs Érik Pérez

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 2 Finale: Magny vs. Gastelum · Nov 21, 2015

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Érik Pérez	0	31 of 92	33%	109 of 172	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:00
Taylor Lapilus	1	20 of 78	25%	23 of 82	0 of 1	0%	1	0	7:10

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Érik Pérez	0	10 of 48	20%	10 of 48	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Taylor Lapilus	0	15 of 45	33%	15 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0:02
2	Érik Pérez	0	13 of 25	52%	57 of 70	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Taylor Lapilus	1	3 of 16	18%	4 of 17	0 of 0	---	1	3:41
3	Érik Pérez	0	8 of 19	42%	42 of 54	1 of 2	50%	0	0:00
3	Taylor Lapilus	0	2 of 17	11%	4 of 20	0 of 1	0%	0	3:27

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Érik Pérez	31 of 92	33%	17 of 69	14 of 21	0 of 2	17 of 73	2 of 4	12 of 15
Taylor Lapilus	20 of 78	25%	12 of 65	4 of 5	4 of 8	18 of 76	2 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Érik Pérez	10 of 48	20%	6 of 39	4 of 7	0 of 2	9 of 46	1 of 2	0 of 0
1	Taylor Lapilus	15 of 45	33%	8 of 34	3 of 4	4 of 7	14 of 44	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Érik Pérez	13 of 25	52%	5 of 16	8 of 9	0 of 0	3 of 12	0 of 0	10 of 13
2	Taylor Lapilus	3 of 16	18%	3 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 1	3 of 16	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Érik Pérez	8 of 19	42%	6 of 14	2 of 5	0 of 0	5 of 15	1 of 2	2 of 2
3	Taylor Lapilus	2 of 17	11%	1 of 16	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 16	1 of 1	0 of 0

WIN vs Yuta Sasaki

TKO (punches) R2 1:26 · UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne · Jun 20, 2015

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Taylor Lapilus	1	31 of 60	51%	68 of 99	0 of 1	0%	0	0	2:20
Yuta Sasaki	0	16 of 41	39%	18 of 43	1 of 6	16%	0	0	0:53

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Taylor Lapilus	0	20 of 38	52%	56 of 76	0 of 1	0%	2:13
1	Yuta Sasaki	0	13 of 23	56%	15 of 25	1 of 5	20%	0:53
2	Taylor Lapilus	1	11 of 22	50%	12 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:07
2	Yuta Sasaki	0	3 of 18	16%	3 of 18	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Taylor Lapilus	31 of 60	51%	24 of 51	5 of 7	2 of 2	10 of 31	15 of 19	6 of 10
Yuta Sasaki	16 of 41	39%	3 of 20	3 of 5	10 of 16	15 of 39	1 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Taylor Lapilus	20 of 38	52%	15 of 31	3 of 5	2 of 2	5 of 19	15 of 19	0 of 0
1	Yuta Sasaki	13 of 23	56%	2 of 8	3 of 4	8 of 11	12 of 21	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Taylor Lapilus	11 of 22	50%	9 of 20	2 of 2	0 of 0	5 of 12	0 of 0	6 of 10
2	Yuta Sasaki	3 of 18	16%	1 of 12	0 of 1	2 of 5	3 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0

WIN vs Rocky Lee

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2 · Apr 11, 2015

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Taylor Lapilus	0	80 of 143	55%	86 of 149	2 of 3	66%	1	1	2:00
Rocky Lee	0	37 of 72	51%	49 of 84	1 of 10	10%	0	0	3:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Taylor Lapilus	31 of 50	62%	36 of 55	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:27
1	Rocky Lee	6 of 16	37%	8 of 18	0 of 7	0%	0	0	1:28
2	Taylor Lapilus	21 of 41	51%	22 of 42	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:30
2	Rocky Lee	10 of 25	40%	13 of 28	1 of 3	33%	0	0	1:29
3	Taylor Lapilus	28 of 52	53%	28 of 52	2 of 3	66%	0	0	1:03
3	Rocky Lee	21 of 31	67%	28 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:46

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Taylor Lapilus	80 of 143	55%	45 of 104	26 of 29	9 of 10	47 of 110	27 of 27	6 of 6
Rocky Lee	37 of 72	51%	10 of 43	13 of 14	14 of 15	26 of 60	10 of 11	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Taylor Lapilus	31 of 50	62%	15 of 31	12 of 14	4 of 5	18 of 37	11 of 11	2 of 2
1	Rocky Lee	6 of 16	37%	3 of 11	2 of 3	1 of 2	6 of 16	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Taylor Lapilus	21 of 41	51%	15 of 35	4 of 4	2 of 2	12 of 32	8 of 8	1 of 1
2	Rocky Lee	10 of 25	40%	1 of 16	2 of 2	7 of 7	6 of 21	4 of 4	0 of 0
3	Taylor Lapilus	28 of 52	53%	15 of 38	10 of 11	3 of 3	17 of 41	8 of 8	3 of 3
3	Rocky Lee	21 of 31	67%	6 of 16	9 of 9	6 of 6	14 of 23	6 of 7	1 of 1

Vince Morales - Fight History

LOSS vs Colby Thicknesse

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Colby Thicknesse	0	46 of 117	39%	57 of 132	0 of 6	0%	4	1	3:01
Vince Morales	0	48 of 121	39%	56 of 134	2 of 2	100%	0	1	3:34

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Colby Thicknesse	6 of 14	42%	13 of 23	0 of 2	0%	4	1	2:20
1	Vince Morales	5 of 15	33%	7 of 18	1 of 1	100%	0	1	1:44
2	Colby Thicknesse	27 of 54	50%	29 of 56	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:41
2	Vince Morales	18 of 55	32%	19 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Colby Thicknesse	13 of 49	26%	15 of 53	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
3	Vince Morales	25 of 51	49%	30 of 59	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:50

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Colby Thicknesse	46 of 117	39%	15 of 73	21 of 32	10 of 12	43 of 112	3 of 5	0 of 0
Vince Morales	48 of 121	39%	37 of 103	9 of 15	2 of 3	42 of 112	5 of 8	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Colby Thicknesse	6 of 14	42%	2 of 8	2 of 3	2 of 3	5 of 13	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Vince Morales	5 of 15	33%	4 of 13	1 of 1	0 of 1	4 of 14	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Colby Thicknesse	27 of 54	50%	8 of 30	15 of 19	4 of 5	27 of 53	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Vince Morales	18 of 55	32%	14 of 47	3 of 7	1 of 1	16 of 52	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Colby Thicknesse	13 of 49	26%	5 of 35	4 of 10	4 of 4	11 of 46	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Vince Morales	25 of 51	49%	19 of 43	5 of 7	1 of 1	22 of 46	2 of 4	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse

Round 1
After a tough loss for the local in the last bout, Thicknesse (8-1; 1-1 UFC) will try to reignite the Aussie faithful against Morales (16-10; 3-8 UFC) in this bantamweight prelim. Dan Movahedi is the referee. Both men are in orthodox stance, and Thicknesse reaches out and touches Morales’ guard with an immediate high kick. Morales is pressing the issue, marching forward and crowding the lanky Australian. Morales swings his way into the pocket and backs Thicknesse to the fence. Thicknesse changes levels and Morales counters with a front headlock. Thicknesse pops his head out and grabs a guillotine choke of his own, falling to his seat near the fence. Morales pulls his head out of danger and stands over Thicknesse. Thicknesse explodes up and moves to Morales’ back, sinking his hooks and looking for a choke. Morales shakes him off over the top, but Thicknesse follows him beautifully, snaring him in a triangle choke. Morales fights the hold, rolling over, and Thicknesse switches to a triangle armbar. It’s big trouble again, but Morales keeps working, doesn’t panic, and after a few tense moments, escapes. Thicknesse bails on the submission attempt but takes top position and starts dropping punches. Thicknesse takes Morales’ back with under a minute to go and is fishing for a choke. Morales fights off the attempts and sweeps to top position with 30 seconds to go. The round ends with the American in half guard. 10-9 Thicknesse.

Round 2
Morales is on the front foot once again to start Round 2, throwing punches and forcing Thicknesse to back off. Thicknesse circles, refusing to be corralled against the fence. Morales pops his man with a nice jab, then counters a low kick with a solid right hand. A minute in, Thicknesse grabs a snatch single-leg, but Morales hops away and frees his leg with ease. Morales seems to have the sharper hands here, as he is landing clean single strikes and getting away unscathed. Thicknesse throws a body kick, then lands a spinning back elbow when Morales catches his leg. Thicknesse cliches, takes an overhook and tries to throw Morales, but Morales is wise to it. They stumble to the fence together and Thicknesse takes Morales’ back standing. He can’t secure the position, however, and Morales moves away from the fence. Morales catches Thicknesse coming in with a couple of good punches. Morales counters a front kick with a right hand. Under 30 seconds to go, and they exchange glancing shots until the horn. 10-9 Morales.

Round 3
They touch gloves to open the final round and Morales comes forward swinging. Thicknesse stands his ground and fires off a kick to the midsection. Morales counters with punches. Morales takes the center of the cage and Thicknesse throws a spinning elbow that comes up badly short. Morales is dialed in with his boxing, landing two-handed combinations that aren’t carrying a ton of power, but are accurate. Thicknesse is not giving back much on the feet, missing with single overhand power shots. They clinch near the fence and Morales tosses Thicknesse to the canvas, then declines to follow him down, instead letting him get back up. Morales catches Thicknesse with a short right hand that wobbles him badly. He gives chase, swarming with punches, then grabs a front headlock and attacks with a guillotine choke. Thicknesse survives, scrambles away but gives up his back. Morales takes back mount and fights for a rear-naked choke. There’s under a minute left, but Thicknesse is calmly fighting the choke. Morales gives up on the choke and returns to his feet, dropping a few final punches before the horn. 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales).

The Official Result
Colby Thicknesse def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Colby Thicknesse

Angelo picks Colby Thicknesse due to his wrestling advantage and ability to exploit Vince Morales's poor takedown defense. He notes that Morales is on a three-fight losing streak and tends to fizzle if he doesn't get an early finish. Angelo expects a close fight but believes Colby's wrestling and potential Australian judge bias will secure the win.

"Kobe's going to be the pick. I think we're good there."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Vince Morales

Big Brady picks Vince Morales to win by submission in the second round. He criticizes Colby Thicknesse's striking as nonexistent and his wrestling as poor, citing low takedown success rates. Brady praises Morales' underrated grappling and front chokes, and expects him to capitalize on Thicknesse's desperation in grappling exchanges.

Morales by submission, round 2

"I'm going to take Vince Morales to win this fight and actually win this fight by submission in the second round."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Colby Thicknesse

Cody picks Thicknesse but is hesitant, noting Morales' submission threat. He believes Thicknesse's volume and home crowd will edge a decision, but warns against shooting into submissions.

"I did take Kobe thickness but as far as live underdogs go that I'm not taking but I do believe are definitely a threat yeah Vince is in that category."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Colby Thicknesse

Connor picks Thicknesse, noting that Morales is a total head case who cannot stick to a winning strategy. He thinks Thicknesse's doggedness and toughness could cause Morales to overthink and make mistakes. He points out that Thicknesse is hard to finish and constantly scrambles, which might frustrate Morales.

"I just want to say that he is consistently tough and trying to make the fight happen and I think there's a non-zero chance that it might be Alice forgets to continue beating him as you know, it's very true."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Vince Morales

Daniel Vreeland picks Vince Morales to upset Colby Thicknesse, believing Morales is the better fighter despite his poor record. He notes Morales' veteran savvy and submission threat, while Thicknesse's skills are questionable. He admits it's hard to have confidence in Morales.

"I'm actually going to go Vince Morales here to upset Colobby Thickness in Australia."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Vince Morales

Lucrative James picks Vince Morales to win via decision. He expects a close fight where Morales' experience and striking edge, combined with his ability to get back to his feet after takedowns, will earn him a split decision. He notes Morales is likely the underdog, which adds value.

"I'll go with Vince Morales cuz I think he's going to be the underdog. In a split decision, you want to pick the underdog. So yeah, Vince Morales via decision."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Vince Morales

The host likes Morales as an underdog, citing his veteran experience, aggression, and superior grappling. He expects Morales to cut off the cage, keep Thickness from sticking and moving, and eventually win by submission. The host notes Thickness's raw level and that Morales has faced tougher competition.

Submission win

"I like Morales here. I think we're going to see him very aggressive with his submission game as well. And I think that will lead to Morales winning this fight by submission."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Vince Morales

Paul picks Morales as a small underdog, citing his submission threat and Thicknesse's tendency to shoot into chokes. He likes the Morales by submission prop.

submission prop

"I'm going to be taking the best available Morales by subprop and probably calling it a day."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Vince Morales

The MMA Guru picks Vince Morales as an underdog despite his three-fight losing streak. He believes Morales is better than his record, citing close fights against Elijah Smith and Raul Rosas Jr. He criticizes Colby Thicknesse's performance against Ilia Topuria and a tough fight against an African prospect, suggesting Thicknesse is overhyped.

"I'm going with Vince Morales as an underdog. Okay? I know people are high on Colby Thicknesse."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Vince Morales

Zane picks Morales despite his headcase tendencies, because Thicknesse is a bad athlete with no discernible skill set. He notes that Morales has a significant technical edge everywhere and should be able to win, but acknowledges that Morales often loses fights he should win due to mental lapses. He thinks Thicknesse's constant errors might give Morales opportunities.

"I got to pick him to win. I shouldn't but like him to this is this is the level where being a quadruple a guy is still supposed to be a guy who generally beats these yeah this level of …"

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Raul Rosas Jr.

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raul Rosas Jr.	0	20 of 39	51%	26 of 46	4 of 8	50%	0	0	9:38
Vince Morales	0	17 of 31	54%	39 of 53	1 of 1	100%	2	0	2:14

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	11 of 18	61%	15 of 22	1 of 3	33%	0	3:33
1	Vince Morales	0 of 4	0%	8 of 12	1 of 1	100%	0	0:36
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	5 of 14	35%	6 of 15	2 of 3	66%	0	3:28
2	Vince Morales	11 of 17	64%	17 of 23	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Raul Rosas Jr.	4 of 7	57%	5 of 9	1 of 2	50%	0	2:37
3	Vince Morales	6 of 10	60%	14 of 18	0 of 0	---	2	1:38

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raul Rosas Jr.	20 of 39	51%	12 of 30	5 of 5	3 of 4	16 of 34	0 of 0	4 of 5
Vince Morales	17 of 31	54%	15 of 28	2 of 3	0 of 0	16 of 30	0 of 0	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	11 of 18	61%	6 of 12	4 of 4	1 of 2	7 of 14	0 of 0	4 of 4
1	Vince Morales	0 of 4	0%	0 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	5 of 14	35%	3 of 12	0 of 0	2 of 2	5 of 13	0 of 0	0 of 1
2	Vince Morales	11 of 17	64%	10 of 16	1 of 1	0 of 0	11 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raul Rosas Jr.	4 of 7	57%	3 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 0	4 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Vince Morales	6 of 10	60%	5 of 8	1 of 2	0 of 0	5 of 9	0 of 0	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

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Vince Morales vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas Jr. (-375), Morales (+295)

Round 1
As he will likely encounter while literally growing up with the UFC, Rosas Jr. (10-1, 4-1 UFC) faces a foe tonight 14 years his senior. The promotion teed up Morales (16-9, 3-7 UFC), a fighter who has only won three times in 10 UFC appearances thus far, to serve as fodder for the youngster. The best-laid plans of mice and matchmakers often go awry, and there is no such thing as a “sure thing” in this chaotic sport of ours. The bantamweight come together under the watchful eye of referee Mike Beltran and do not touch gloves. Morales takes to the enter of the cage and paws out a jab, and he is met with a front kick to the body and a shin aimed at his chin. Rosas kicks his front leg a couple times, and he shoots for a takedown that Morales easily shucks out of the way. Rosas sprints forward to put two punches on “Vandetta,” and he chains a few more punches together before lifting Morales up in the air and slamming him down in the middle of the Octagon. Rosas lands in side control, not concerned about a feeble guillotine set up by Morales and suddenly searching for a submission. Morales reacts well enough to drag Rosas back to his guard for a second, and Rosas leaps over to the side again. Morales fights with his legs to stifle a mount attempt, and he wraps up Rosas neck with his arms and finds himself in Von Preux choke danger. Morales sees this setting up and releases his own grip to not fall in the trap. Rosas keeps moving, and he allows Morales to get to his knees so he can take the back. Rosas sneaks in a hook and pulls Morales to his side, with Morales intent on turning him about. Rosas forces Morales to turn, not getting his other hook in, and he keeps on the back while continuously threatening. Morales sits up and looks to twist again, and Rosas hooks one leg around him to keep maintaining his position. Morales breaks out of it and pursues a single, and Rosas keeps his body weight down and slams his fist on Morales’ ribs. Morales turns Rosas over and holds his shoulder down on Rosas’ neck, looking for open strikes until Rosas turns to his knees. Morales pursues a necktie submission, gripping it and leaning back to complete it, but time expires before he gets it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas

Round 2
Morales comes out of his corner jabbing, and Rosas has his distance-keeping front kick outstretched. Rosas jabs him back, and he walks into a right hand and pays it no mind. Morales loops a right hand around the guard, and he is answered by a low kick. Rosas comes up short with a step-in knee and a punch, while Morales prods him with his jab. Rosas wraps his foot around the shin of his foe, and he gets his head snapped back with a fierce right hand. Rosas backs off, and Morales slings a head kick at him and starts to defend against a takedown he is knows is coming. Still, the youngster presses Morales from one side of the cage to the other, resting his weight on the veteran and looking for a body lock and a trip when the single or double does not materialize. A subsequent effort, a single-leg takedown, allows Rosas to take his man down. Rosas hunts for a back take, sliding a hook in from behind but the second is fought by Morales. Rosas re-settles himself to hang on from a shoulder, and the two keep scrambling until Rosas laces his legs around Morales’ left thigh. Morales rolls his eyes as he is getting controlled without being able to fight back, as Rosas follows his moves and threatens to loop his arm around the chin. Morales defends with two hands on one wrist, and he posts off to get to his feet all while Rosas is still imposing his weight on his back. Morales shimmies and shakes to wrench the youngster off of him, only to get dragged down and put on his back. Morales wags his finger at the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas

Round 3
Morales is even more fired up to get to the last round, and he runs at the 20-year-old flailing his fists. Rosas keeps his back to the cage, strafing to the side and into a head kick. Rosas shoots, and Morales sets up a Peruvian necktie and tries to hit it. When that first one does not come together, Morales locks up an anaconda choke and transitions it to a brabo choke while on his back. Without any legs in play, hooked around Rosas’ back or otherwise presenting additional pressure, Rosas is able to stay composed and slowly work his way out of it. Rosas unleashes a powerful elbow when reclaiming top position, and Morales tries to roll out of the predicament and gives his back up. Rosas does not hang onto the back this time and instead lets Morales roll through. Morales hooks the leg to set up some leglock, and Rosas steps over it and puts Morales back on his side. When Morales gets up, Rosas bullies him right back to his seat. Morales is irritated that he cannot get Rosas off of him, and he stands up and uses the fence to his side to scrape Rosas off. Rosas shoots for a single, and Morales attempts a desperation necktie. Rosas turns through it, and Morales fastens a brabo choke again but does not have a lot of time left. Rosas signals a thumbs-up as the choke is pressed on his windpipe, and the match comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)

The Official Result
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Raul Rosas Jr.

James picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win but is hesitant due to the minus 400 price tag and elevation concerns. He notes Rosas has cardio issues that could be exacerbated at elevation, while Morales has good cardio and is tough to finish. James thinks Rosas will likely win via submission or decision but cannot recommend betting him at such short odds. He suggests that if Rosas doesn't finish early, he could fade in later rounds.

Prediction: Rosas via submission or decision. Advises against betting Rosas at minus 400 due to cardio and elevation risks.

"I'm going to pick Ral roses Jr to win the fight via submission or decision but there's no way I'm laying minus 400 chalk on this guy."

Lucrative MMA

LOSS vs Elijah Smith

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vince Morales	0	40 of 86	46%	42 of 90	2 of 4	50%	3	2	3:07
Elijah Smith	0	40 of 97	41%	52 of 110	3 of 4	75%	1	2	2:53

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Vince Morales	19 of 40	47%	19 of 40	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Elijah Smith	19 of 43	44%	19 of 43	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:17
2	Vince Morales	4 of 5	80%	6 of 8	2 of 3	66%	2	2	2:02
2	Elijah Smith	1 of 5	20%	7 of 12	1 of 1	100%	1	2	2:08
3	Vince Morales	17 of 41	41%	17 of 42	0 of 1	0%	1	0	1:05
3	Elijah Smith	20 of 49	40%	26 of 55	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:28

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vince Morales	40 of 86	46%	30 of 74	8 of 10	2 of 2	36 of 81	4 of 5	0 of 0
Elijah Smith	40 of 97	41%	29 of 81	2 of 3	9 of 13	37 of 94	3 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vince Morales	19 of 40	47%	13 of 33	4 of 5	2 of 2	17 of 38	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Elijah Smith	19 of 43	44%	13 of 33	1 of 2	5 of 8	18 of 42	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Vince Morales	4 of 5	80%	4 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Elijah Smith	1 of 5	20%	1 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Vince Morales	17 of 41	41%	13 of 36	4 of 5	0 of 0	15 of 38	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Elijah Smith	20 of 49	40%	15 of 43	1 of 1	4 of 5	18 of 47	2 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

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Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Smith (-180), Morales (+150)

Round 1
Speed kills at the lower divisions, and if their pasts are any indication, Morales (16-8, 3-6 UFC) and Smith (7-1, 0-0 UFC) would like nothing more than to clock out early and go home today. The former, currently on his second stint with the promotion, did just what any savvy fighter should do after a release: go to the regional circuit, rack up a bunch of wins in rapid succession and get a call back to the big leagues. In less than two years, Morales was in, out and in again. Referee Mark Smith will know first whether the decision to bring him back to the roster was a good idea. Gloves are not touched, and Morales is instead the aggressor as he backs Smith up to the cage. Smith presses back with a jab, and Morales dodges and moves while staying in Smith’s face. Smith prods his jabs to chain in an uppercut, snapping Morales’ head back and surprising him. Morales gathers his thoughts and keeps advancing, not cutting his foe off and drawing a finger wag from the newcomer. Smith lets go with a body kick, and when he slides away, Morales kicks him square in the groin. The clacking echo cutting through the arena, Smith collapses to the mat in serious trouble. Smith writhes in pain and slams his fist on the mat several times, and he returns to his feet a minute into the recovery time. Smith lowers himself back to a crouch as he is still greatly struggling to get his wind back, and referee Smith is attentive and giving the fighter updates as to his time. After two minutes and 45 seconds, Smith is ready to fight and claps hands with his foe to restart. Morales gets back to where he left off with pressure, and Smith sits down on a clean left hand counter that makes Morales’ nose match his red hair and shorts. Smith times a jump knee counter to clip Morales on the way in, missing by a matter of millimeters. Morales continues crowding the newcomer, until Smith frames off and his fingers slide into the eye socket. Referee Smith calls in the physician to check on Morales’ condition and help clear his vision, who complains that the poke affected both eyes. Right before the restart, Morales mentions that they are even, and they resume fighting with 2:15 to go in the round. Smith sticks out several sharp jabs to intercept Morales, only to get caught with two right hooks that shake him up. While Smith counters with a check left hook, Morales greets him with a right hand. The jabs of Smith have opened a cut around Morales’ mouth, but he pays it no mind as he hooks his right hand around the jab. Morales jabs his way into a counterattack, and Smith backs him away with a pair of chopping leg kicks. Smith is warned for outstretched fingers again, and Morales may have suffered another uncalled eye poke as he is struggling to blink out his left eye. While he is dealing with that, Smith shoots for an easy takedown he uses to throw “Vandetta” to the floor. What he doesn’t have is time, as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith

Round 2
The second round begins where the first left off, with Morales directly in Smith’s face putting heat on him. Morales does not crowd in recklessly, keeping his guard up to block a head kick or oncoming jabs. As Smith circles away, Morales catches him with a left hand that forces him to stick around in the clinch. Smith grabs hold of his foe and lifts him up like a Country Breakfast, embodying his inner Matt Hughes to carry his opponent around the cage to his corner. Smith scrambles to take the back, and he wraps up a rear-naked choke that is more of a face crank. Morales works his neck free and scrambles with a kimura sweep attempt to turn himself over. Smith stands up and finds himself stuck on his back suddenly when Morales dumps him to the floor. Morales snakes his arms around the neck to tie up a brabo choke, and he steps over to the side to try to complete the submission. Smith lays flat on his stomach before exploding the wrong direction, keeping himself calm and not exposing himself to greater danger. Morales keeps the choke wrapped up around the neck even as Smith wisely shifts through it, and the younger fighter survives the sub and claims top position. When Morales attempts to stand, Smith looks to drag him down from behind, and this results in Morales setting up another brabo choke. Morales drives a few knees into the chin before rolling all the way through for a Japanese necktie with his legs and arms wrapped up to lock up the unorthodox maneuver. Smith works his way out of the submission and stands up, slapping Morales on the side of the head and rolling through an attempted Morales throw to control him from behind at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
The fighters come out firing to open the last round, with Smith whiffing on haymakers immediately. Morales walks forward and feints to draw out reactions, and he strings combinations together as Smith does the same. The pace wanes as Smith does not appear to land these big strikes often, with his sharp, direct strikes far more effective. Smith rips an uppercut that shreds a cut on Morales’ nose, and he times the strike to shoot in for a double that puts Morales on his seat. While Morales works his way up, his nose is bent entirely the wrong direction and leaking all over the mat. There is no quit despite punches likely hurting far more than usual on the shattered nose, and Morales takes them flush and still cruises forward. Morales shoots for a takedown, forces a counter shot and lays on top of Smith’s back to go for a Japanese or perhaps Peruvian variation of the necktie. Morales bails on this sub and sways around to the back, but Smith explodes his way back up. Smith puts fists on face, blood spraying and Morales trying desperately to keep a stiff upper lip. Smith pokes and prods with jabs, and Morales points at the floor as if to lure Smith into a defense-free brawl. When Smith does not oblige, Morales chases after him lobbing big strikes at him. Smith defends a suplex by landing on his hands, and Morales shockingly grabs him from behind and wraps an unorthodox side-naked-slash-bulldog choke under the chin. Smith’s eyes go wide, as the choke is tight even though no hooks are in. Knowing time is on his side, Smith works Morales to the body until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Morales)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)

The Official Result
Elijah Smith def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith based on his non-stop wrestling, but he is hesitant because Smith is a UFC debutant with only eight fights. He notes that Vince Morales is a dog and has shown toughness. He does not bet this fight because of the uncertainty, but he leans Smith due to his wrestling.

"I am going to pick Elijah because of the wrestling specifically and because of the fact that I know he'll just shoot and then right behind it shoot again but I'm likely going to avoid betting here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Vince Morales

Big Brady picks Morales as a dog, arguing Smith is too green with poor cardio and unproven striking. Morales has better cardio and striking, and Smith has slowed down in multiple fights. He notes the line is moving toward Morales, indicating public agreement.

Morales by decision

"give me Vince Morales here as a dog"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)

Vince Morales

Morales is more well-rounded and experienced. He will wear Smith down in the striking realm and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. Smith has the hardware but Morales gets the vet lesson win.

Morales by submission, round 2 or 3

"I think Morales will be able to wear Smith down stay competitive in the striking realm and eventually get to a submission game... look for Morales to wear Smith down and eventually find the submission in the second or third …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith over Vince Morales, citing Smith's prospect potential and impressive Contender Series performance. He notes Morales is a tricky veteran but old, and Smith showed grappling ability despite some weaknesses. He believes Smith's talent and UFC contract motivation will carry him.

"I'm going to go with Elijah Smith the prospect over Vince Morales"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Taylor Lapilus

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Taylor Lapilus	0	94 of 202	46%	99 of 208	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:10
Vince Morales	0	39 of 141	27%	49 of 154	2 of 6	33%	0	0	3:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Taylor Lapilus	35 of 81	43%	35 of 82	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Vince Morales	11 of 45	24%	12 of 46	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Taylor Lapilus	30 of 58	51%	31 of 59	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Vince Morales	16 of 41	39%	20 of 46	1 of 3	33%	1:24
3	Taylor Lapilus	29 of 63	46%	33 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:10
3	Vince Morales	12 of 55	21%	17 of 62	1 of 3	33%	1:38

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Taylor Lapilus	94 of 202	46%	63 of 165	24 of 29	7 of 8	80 of 181	14 of 21	0 of 0
Vince Morales	39 of 141	27%	25 of 113	10 of 19	4 of 9	34 of 124	5 of 17	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Taylor Lapilus	35 of 81	43%	23 of 66	6 of 8	6 of 7	32 of 77	3 of 4	0 of 0
1	Vince Morales	11 of 45	24%	6 of 33	3 of 7	2 of 5	10 of 43	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Taylor Lapilus	30 of 58	51%	19 of 46	11 of 12	0 of 0	25 of 52	5 of 6	0 of 0
2	Vince Morales	16 of 41	39%	8 of 27	6 of 10	2 of 4	13 of 34	3 of 7	0 of 0
3	Taylor Lapilus	29 of 63	46%	21 of 53	7 of 9	1 of 1	23 of 52	6 of 11	0 of 0
3	Vince Morales	12 of 55	21%	11 of 53	1 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 47	1 of 8	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

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Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I think Taylor runs right through him... he weathers an early storm and then pieces Vince apart the rest of that fight."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Lapilus by decision

"lapis lapis by decision I think is the the pretty pretty clear pick"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"lapas just it may be uh decision it might just be Point fighting from the outside"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"Gotta take Lapolas here."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I think laus win I was like maybe they give us a decent price on laus decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I think lapis is uh starching him I think he's better on the feet I think he's powerful I like lapis a lot give me a lapolis by KO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Paul agrees, noting Lapilus' excellent get-up game and striking. He believes Morales' wrestling won't be effective and that Lapilus will out-strike him clearly. He expects a unanimous decision.

"lapis should double him up in strikes and uh probably win a very clear unanimous decision"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I'm going to go with Taylor laulis getting this one done split the decision"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"It's a pretty easy technical showcase for him to get Morales chasing him and just not really being able to do anything effective through chasing him at all."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Miles Johns

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Miles Johns	0	39 of 131	29%	47 of 139	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
Vince Morales	0	38 of 103	36%	45 of 110	1 of 12	8%	0	0	2:08

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Miles Johns	8 of 32	25%	8 of 32	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Vince Morales	10 of 26	38%	10 of 26	0 of 1	0%	0:02
2	Miles Johns	11 of 43	25%	13 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:02
2	Vince Morales	13 of 32	40%	13 of 32	1 of 3	33%	0:35
3	Miles Johns	20 of 56	35%	26 of 62	0 of 0	---	0:03
3	Vince Morales	15 of 45	33%	22 of 52	0 of 8	0%	1:31

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Miles Johns	39 of 131	29%	28 of 112	9 of 15	2 of 4	36 of 127	3 of 4	0 of 0
Vince Morales	38 of 103	36%	28 of 92	4 of 5	6 of 6	38 of 102	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Miles Johns	8 of 32	25%	6 of 27	1 of 3	1 of 2	8 of 32	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Vince Morales	10 of 26	38%	7 of 23	1 of 1	2 of 2	10 of 25	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Miles Johns	11 of 43	25%	6 of 35	5 of 7	0 of 1	9 of 41	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Vince Morales	13 of 32	40%	8 of 27	2 of 2	3 of 3	13 of 32	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Miles Johns	20 of 56	35%	16 of 50	3 of 5	1 of 1	19 of 54	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Vince Morales	15 of 45	33%	13 of 42	1 of 2	1 of 1	15 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Miles Johns vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-165), Morales (+140)

Round 1
The bantamweight ride continues with two more heavy-handed and fast-paced competitors, as Morales (11-6, 3-4 UFC) throws down with recent Glory MMA trainee Johns (12-2, 3-2 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni steels himself for the action, whether it lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, and the two would rather battle it out than touch gloves – the bad blood appears to be high, as the commission had to separate them ahead of the introductions. Now that the fight is on, the two 135ers do not engage, with over 30 seconds elapsing before either man throws a single strike. Johns reaches out with a straight left hand and a leg kick, and Morales responds with a left hab. Johns pushes him back with a jab of his own, and he doubles up on it while Morales is measuring his range. The two collide with heavy blows at the same time, but neither man budges an inch. The inactivity continues as they are not willing to commit on their strikes, and any power punches go well away from their intended targets. Johns steps in with a quick calf kick, and Morales takes a funny step back after absorbing it. A quick jab from “Chapo” makes Morales backpedal, but it is one-and-done until Morales gets his gumption to toss out a single low kick. Johns loads up on a right hand, but Morales ducks it in the nick of time. Johns pokes out with a jab, and he slides back as Morales whips a left hook towards him. Morales attempts to get his own jab doing, snapping it out a few times and ducking when Johns throws a right hand that would have knocked down a building. Johns crashes forward suddenly to snag a single, and Morales hops back and yanks his leg out. Johns loads up on another massive overhand right, and he does not find the target with that but gets off a clean left hook. The activity spikes, relative to the other action, when Johns scores a few left hands before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Johns lords over the center of the cage when the round begins, and neither man is willing to throw anything effective. The two jab at one another, and Johns’ mouth begins to bleed. Johns thumps the lead calf with his shin, and he pushes out a jab that makes Morales blink a few times. As Morales marches forward, he throws hard, and Johns dips down and grabs hold of a single. “Vandetta” wriggles the leg out and races away, resetting in the middle of the Octagon and preparing to throw. As Morales comes forward, he walks into one of Johns’ outstretched fingers, and Tognoni recognizes this and pauses the bout. To give Morales additional time to recover, Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on the condition of Morales’ eye, and Morales explains that he is good to go and holds no ill will towards his opponent. After about 90 seconds, the two get back to business, the jabs come from the fighters at the restart. Johns walks his man down and swats out several jabs, and he releases several booming hooks that all miss one after the other. Morales circles out and into a low kick, but he shows no concern and reaches out with a front kick to the sternum. Morales catches a low kick and swipes out with a right hand, but Johns replies with a swiping right hand on the way out. Johns blocks a high kick and eats a jab, and he charges with a small barrage that bounce off the guard. Johns glances a right hand over the top, and he finds himself eating a kick to the belly for his work. “Chapo” loads up on another right hand, following it with a high crotch single-leg but not succeeding with it. Morales defends with elbows to the side of the head, and this distracts him enough for Johns to elevate him and slam him down one second before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Jabs are exchanged to start off the final round of what has been a tepid and tentative affair. The striking accuracy totals of both bantamweights are likely extremely low, especially in the significant strike category. Johns ducks in for a single without setting it up, and he lifts Morales’ left leg up in the air and chases him from one side of the cage to the other. Morales trips to the floor, and he bounces right back up without a care in the world. On the reset, Morales picks and pokes with a jab, and Johns sits down with a calf kick that lands with an audible thud. Morales replies with a slapping body kick, but the bantamweights are largely targeting one another with single strikes. Johns misses with a right hand, Morales is similarly inaccurate, and they return to their jab-centric approach. Morales chains a jab into a right hand, and Johns gives chase and swarms him with winging but missing punches. “Chapo” attempts another single, and this is nowhere near secure as Morales springs away. Morales makes him pay for this attempt with another body kick, and Johns blitzes him with a single-leg takedown effort. “Vandetta” keeps himself from hitting the mat once more, and he plants a front kick on the torso while Johns swings at air. They alternate with jabs, and the follow-up strikes from both fighters miss the mark again and again. Johns fires off huge overhand rights, but the evasiveness of Morales keeps him safe from harm. Johns attacks with one final takedown, and he bullies Morales to the wall and holds him there until the fight comes to a merciful end. The judges will have their hands full evaluating this lackluster contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

LOSS vs Jonathan Martinez

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez	0	88 of 154	57%	88 of 154	2 of 2	100%	0	0	0:41
Vince Morales	0	51 of 153	33%	62 of 164	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:14

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Jonathan Martinez	24 of 40	60%	24 of 40	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Vince Morales	15 of 35	42%	15 of 35	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Jonathan Martinez	36 of 56	64%	36 of 56	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Vince Morales	16 of 56	28%	16 of 56	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Jonathan Martinez	28 of 58	48%	28 of 58	2 of 2	100%	0	0:41
3	Vince Morales	20 of 62	32%	31 of 73	0 of 0	---	1	0:14

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jonathan Martinez	88 of 154	57%	41 of 98	18 of 22	29 of 34	86 of 151	2 of 3	0 of 0
Vince Morales	51 of 153	33%	33 of 127	15 of 23	3 of 3	48 of 149	2 of 3	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jonathan Martinez	24 of 40	60%	6 of 17	4 of 5	14 of 18	24 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Vince Morales	15 of 35	42%	8 of 27	5 of 6	2 of 2	15 of 35	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Jonathan Martinez	36 of 56	64%	18 of 37	5 of 6	13 of 13	34 of 53	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Vince Morales	16 of 56	28%	10 of 45	5 of 10	1 of 1	15 of 54	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Jonathan Martinez	28 of 58	48%	17 of 44	9 of 11	2 of 3	28 of 58	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Vince Morales	20 of 62	32%	15 of 55	5 of 7	0 of 0	18 of 60	1 of 1	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-150), Medic (+130)

Round 1
The third man inside the cage for this bantamweight contest is Herb Dean. Both men take their time feeling out the other with each fighter looking to find their distance with leg kicks and jabs over the opening minute. Martinez snaps a body kick that lands and Martinez lands a solid counter punch a few moments later. Martinez throws two other kicks that connect and begins walking down Morales. Martinez continues to land damaging leg kicks as Morales is unable to counter. Another leg kick slows down Morales as Martinez remains the aggressor, who is just one step ahead on the feet but not getting his opponent in any real danger. The round ends with Martinez throwing a jumping knee.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 2
Morales throws a leg kick and a right ot the body, but Martinez answers with a leg kick that lands much harder. Martinez lands a couple more whipping leg kicks as he controls the center of the cage. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. They clinch briefly and separate. Morales is struggling to find the range on his attacks. Martinez with another inside low kick. He’s varying his kicks to the legs well, going to both legs and working the inside and outside. Martinez with a kick to the body followed by a front kick down the middle. Morales pressures and eats a knee down the middle from Martinez for his efforts. Martinez with another outside low kick and he avoids the counter from Morales. Morales wings punches moving forward but can’t connect. Martinez whips another outside leg kick, then he follows a knee with a left hand. Martinez shoves his foe away before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 3
Martinez lands a push kick and then connects to Morales’ lead leg with an inside low kick. Morales closes the distance but he gets hit with punches. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. Martinez flicks out a jab and then connects with a left hook to the chin of his opponent. Martinez continues to dictate the range and the tempo of the exchanges. A knee and a left hand from Martinez land flush. Morales is trying to press the action, but Martinez is countering well. A right hand finds the mark for Morales. Martinez sticks a counter left and then throws a high kick that his foe blocks with his forearm. With about a minute remaining, Martinez executes a nicely timed level change for a double-leg takedown. Morales posts and stands against the fence, but Martinez is driving for another takedown, and he dumps Morales on the canvas. Morales reverses into top position but can’t make anything happen before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)

The Official Result
Jonathan Martinez def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Jonathan Martinez but is hesitant because he thinks Vince Morales's pressure style could cause problems. He notes that Martinez looked terrible in his last fight against Alejandro Perez, only kicking and crumbling under pressure. However, he believes Martinez is the better overall fighter and will squeak out a win. He also mentions a prop bet on Vince Morales winning a round via a plus 3.5 round bet.

Vince Morales plus 3.5 round bet (buy a round on judge's scorecard) - available at BetOnline

"i really want to pick vince morales as an underdog here i think this fight's going to look exactly like jonathan martinez's last fight"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision, favoring his diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) over Vince Morales. He notes Morales has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and the fight should stay standing. He questions Martinez's chin but believes his volume and kicks will be too much. He does not like the -220 price but picks Martinez to win.

"i think martinez does win a decision but um i'll be honest i don't really like the price tag of minus 220 but i'll pick on the win and i'll pick him to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez but is wary of his tendency to get caught in fights. He notes Martinez's leg kick game should be effective against Morales, who is susceptible to low kicks. However, he acknowledges Morales' durability and underdog success, making this a tough call.

"part part of me thinks that jay martin stays the outside chips away and i think that's what everybody's believing like most people are on the same page but uh when i try to think of who who's that guy …"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

Jonathan Martinez

The host picks Jonathan Martinez to win. He believes Martinez's kicking game, including leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks, will be the difference. He thinks Morales has a puncher's chance but will get stuck on the end of Martinez's strikes and be outworked. He does not expect the fight to be as close as some people think.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)

"i don't think martinez is going to be as close as people are making it out to be"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick. He discusses both sides, noting Martinez's leg kicks and Morales' durability and underdog value. He says he is struggling to pull the trigger on either side.

"i'm struggling to pull the trigger myself of course underdogs are gonna come through lately i've been picking underdogs it's just the ones i picked and don't come through and the ones i fade do"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru sides with Jonathan Martinez, citing his technical striking on the outside and experience. He acknowledges Vince Morales has power but notes Morales hasn't lived up to his KO reputation in the UFC. He trusts Martinez not to make a mistake and get KO'd, predicting a unanimous decision with some hairy moments.

"i'm gonna side with jonathan martinez here"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Louis Smolka

KO (punches) R1 2:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vince Morales	0	23 of 32	71%	23 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Louis Smolka	1	27 of 49	55%	27 of 50	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Vince Morales	0	23 of 32	71%	23 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Louis Smolka	1	27 of 49	55%	27 of 50	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vince Morales	23 of 32	71%	5 of 14	10 of 10	8 of 8	19 of 28	4 of 4	0 of 0
Louis Smolka	27 of 49	55%	16 of 34	8 of 12	3 of 3	18 of 38	4 of 6	5 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vince Morales	23 of 32	71%	5 of 14	10 of 10	8 of 8	19 of 28	4 of 4	0 of 0
1	Louis Smolka	27 of 49	55%	16 of 34	8 of 12	3 of 3	18 of 38	4 of 6	5 of 5

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Vince Morales vs. Louis Smolka

Round 1
The UFC is back for three more weeks to end the year, and the first of three comes on the main ESPN network. UFC on ESPN 31, which now has 13 fights after losing a pair of matches in the last 24 hours, will commence in the bantamweight division. Flyweight-turned-135er Smolka (17-7, 8-6 UFC) will try to win his second in a row at the expense of Morales (10-5, 2-3 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni draws the first charge of the night, and with a touch of gloves, we are underway! Smolka leads the dance with two jabs and a right hand, and follows it with a low calf kick to frustrate Morales right out of the gate. Smolka walks his foe down, reaching out with push kicks and avoiding a swiping left hand coming his way. Morales settles down and snaps out a few jabs to find his range, and the punches have already marked Smolka up. “Vandetta” chains together a lengthy combination ending with several body shots, doing some decent work and making Smolka shell up. Morales backs off so he can flick out his jab a few times. Smolka continues to march forward but walks straight into jabs, and he is still able to push a kick out. Morales paws out a left hook a few times to solid effect, and Smolka comes right back at him but is not landing nearly as flush. Smolka rips a left hand to the body, and he latches on to a Thai clinch to blast Morales in the body with knees.
Not remotely concerned by the strikes, Morales gathers himself, lands to the body and wings a huge right hand over the top that sends Smolka crashing face-first on the canvas.
Morales surprised himself with the strike, as he takes a second before pouncing to deliver some ground-and-pound. The blows are merely academic, as Tognoni rushes in to pull him off and stop the fight. What a way to start the night, as Morales becomes the first fighter to ever knock out the durable Smolka!

The Official Result
Vince Morales def. Louis Smolka R1 2:02 via KO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Angelo picks Louis Smolka, citing his volume, wrestling, and chin. He notes Smolka averages two takedowns per fight and works in grappling well, while Morales relies on power but may be a step behind. Angelo is confident Smolka's chin holds up and he outpaces Morales to a win.

1 unit moneyline at -150

"i'm gonna go with luis smoka here i see him avoiding the big shots working in wrestling outpacing to a win"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Big Brady picks Louis Smolka to win inside the distance, specifically by submission. He notes Smolka's 89% finish rate and 42% submission rate, and highlights Vince Morales' poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He references Morales' fight against Domingo Pilarte where he was easily submitted after being taken down. Brady believes Smolka's grappling advantage will be decisive.

by submission

"give me luis smolka inside the distance... vince morales by submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Cody picks Smolka, noting his grappling advantage and that Morales is a warm body. He thinks Smolka's striking is even with Morales and that his ground game will be the difference. Cody believes Smolka is the rightful favorite.

"i do think that louis smolka is the rightful favorite and i do think this is a spot where the favor does win"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Daniel Levi picks Louis Smolka to win, citing his scrambling ability, durability, and experience. He notes that Smolka has an insane chin and can take shots, and that he has a little sneaky power. He thinks Smolka can get on top of Morales and either ground-and-pound or submit him. He acknowledges that backing Smolka as a favorite can be sketchy but notes his decent history as a slight favorite.

"I'm gonna go with louis smoker to get it done"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Jacob agrees with Smolka, emphasizing he must end up on top in grappling exchanges. He notes Smolka's wrestling and jiu-jitsu from top position are key, and that Morales is a wrestler but only a blue belt. Jacob is not overly confident but leans Smolka.

"i agree i think i like smoking in this matchup i think the big... the most important thing for him in this fight is in the grappling exchanges in the wrestling he has to end up on top"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Louis Smolka

I like Smolka here. He is much more physical, hits harder, and throws more volume than Morales. Morales is a good technical boxer but lacks power and athleticism; he tends to collapse when backed up and is poor on bottom. Smolka will pressure non-stop and eventually break him, likely finishing via submission or TKO. I also like the inside the distance prop at plus 200.

Smolka by submission +365, Smolka inside the distance +200

"I like smoker here smoke inside the distance please let me know what you feel about this matchup brother"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Louis Smolka

Paul picks Smolka, citing his grappling and recent win over Quinones. He thinks Smolka's ground game is slick and that he can capitalize on scrambles. Paul notes that Smolka's losses are to elite competition and that he seems to have turned his life around.

"i'm gonna go smoke it here um uh hopefully you can get the fight to the mat and and style from top"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)

Louis Smolka

The MMA Guru picks Louis Smolka to win by submission in the second round. He expects a competitive stand-up fight early, with both landing shots, but Smolka's superior grappling will be the difference. He predicts Smolka will secure a takedown at the end of the first round, building confidence, then finish with a rear-naked choke midway through the second.

second round rear naked choke

"i'm gonna go the lewis smoker second round rear naked choke against vince morales"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Drako Rodriguez

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vince Morales	0	76 of 196	38%	84 of 204	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:40
Drako Rodriguez	0	55 of 151	36%	60 of 156	3 of 5	60%	0	0	1:14

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Vince Morales	27 of 54	50%	30 of 57	0 of 1	0%	0:14
1	Drako Rodriguez	14 of 49	28%	14 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Vince Morales	18 of 48	37%	22 of 52	1 of 1	100%	0:15
2	Drako Rodriguez	17 of 40	42%	19 of 42	3 of 3	100%	1:13
3	Vince Morales	31 of 94	32%	32 of 95	0 of 2	0%	0:11
3	Drako Rodriguez	24 of 62	38%	27 of 65	0 of 2	0%	0:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vince Morales	76 of 196	38%	46 of 150	26 of 40	4 of 6	69 of 183	7 of 12	0 of 1
Drako Rodriguez	55 of 151	36%	45 of 138	2 of 3	8 of 10	49 of 143	5 of 7	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vince Morales	27 of 54	50%	14 of 37	11 of 14	2 of 3	24 of 51	3 of 3	0 of 0
1	Drako Rodriguez	14 of 49	28%	12 of 45	0 of 0	2 of 4	13 of 48	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Vince Morales	18 of 48	37%	10 of 36	7 of 10	1 of 2	17 of 43	1 of 4	0 of 1
2	Drako Rodriguez	17 of 40	42%	12 of 34	0 of 1	5 of 5	15 of 36	1 of 3	1 of 1
3	Vince Morales	31 of 94	32%	22 of 77	8 of 16	1 of 1	28 of 89	3 of 5	0 of 0
3	Drako Rodriguez	24 of 62	38%	21 of 59	2 of 2	1 of 1	21 of 59	3 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez

Round 1
Up next at bantamweight, it’s a battle between the unusually nicknamed when “Vandetta” Morales (9-5, 1-3 UFC) tries to run over 1930s vaudevillian “The Great Drakolini” Rodriguez (7-2, 0-1 UFC). With both coming off losses, they have something to prove and look to make a big splash in front of this raucous crowd. They do not touch gloves, and referee Jeff Rexroad looks on in what could be a fun one. Morales looks for right hands and leg kicks, and Rodriguez is content to just watch Morales throw at him. Morales scores a left hand, and Rodriguez paws back at him while standing there. Rodriguez catches Morales coming in at him with a straight left hand, shaking Morales up and forcing him reset. Morales charges and whiffs, but Rodriguez is not as inaccurate as he clips Morales with a short right hand and a leg kick to follow. A few jabs from Rodriguez have marked Morales up early, and Morales tries to swing a body kick but Rodriguez closes the distance on him to break it up. Both men trade leg kicks, and Morales ducks down but ends up headbutting Rodriguez in the chest. Morales swings and misses with punches while Rodriguez is light on his feet flicking his jab out there to dramatic effect. The jab from Rodriguez and the leg kicks have reddened Morales considerably, and he celebrates his work after scoring a left hand. Morales comes back at him over the top with a looping right hand, and it collides with the temple as Rodriguez rolls with it. The one-and-done striking exchanges are not exciting the Houston crowd, which starts to rain boos down as they pick and poke at one another. Morales crashes forward to duck a blow and aims for a takedown, and even though he does not land it, he presses Rodriguez into the fencing. “The Great Drakolini” escapes with relative ease and breaks free, before landing a solid body kick as the two get back after it. Both men land big punches, and Morales scores the better one as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The bantamweights come out to the center of the cage, and Morales looks to set up a left hand but cannot quote score it. As Rodriguez throws a naked low kick, Morales connects with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Rodriguez flying to the ground. Although Morales considers diving after him and doing some damage, he elects to instead let Rodriguez up so they can keep striking. Both men start up with wide exchanges, and they trade big single blows and both nearly fall over. Rodriguez changes levels and looks to take his foe down, but “Vandetta” stuffs the double. Rodriguez chains the attempt into a single, and he puts Morales on his back for a moment. Morales springs back up, and Rodriguez is there to hit a quick mat return. Once more, Morales stands up, and he absorbs a sharp strike to the body. Rodriguez lifts Morales up and slams him down, and this time Morales needs to get to his knees a little slower before exploding back to his feet. He does this, and the two separate. Morales stings Rodriguez with a one-two, even walking through a counterpunch to get there. Morales targets the body and the head, and he walks Rodriguez down right into a right hand that splits his guard. A short but ferocious brawl ensues, with each fighter landing flush and giving it right back, before Rodriguez backs off to score a leg kick. Rodriguez gets his jab going again, and Morales finds a right hand that clatters off the side of Rodriguez’ head. Rodriguez sits down on a two-punch combination, and Morales pays him back with a heavier right hand. They come together in the pocket and trade, with Rodriguez clipping his foe with a solid left hand. The round ends as they both swing wildly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
The close fight enters its third round, and Morales leads the dance as he follows Rodriguez around the cage. Morales partially connects with a left hand, and the right that comes after gets blocked. Rodriguez tries to keep his advancing foe at bay with a few jabs, and they land blows at the same moment. Both men dodge and weave as they throw heavily at the other, with counters missing as they try to trade. Rodriguez stretches out with a left hand, and Morales swarms him with a short salvo of punches that largely do not get in. Rodriguez parries a few shots to land a solid right hand, and Morales is right in front of him ready to string a few more punches together. “The Great Drakolini” lands a few punches as they clinch up, and right at the break, he clips Morales with a stern right hand. Morales wheels out of the way and puts on the gas, landing a solid right hand that surprises Rodriguez momentarily. Rodriguez looks to land a takedown, and Morales hops out of the way and stops the advancing effort. The bantamweights go punch-for-punch, with one landing and the other responding nearly in sequential order. Morales tries to break up this rhythm with a few punches and a takedown attempt, and when he does not get, he rips the body with a left hand and brings a right over the top. Rodriguez chains a one-two that misses the mark, and Morales stings him back with a right hand. Morales keeps after his retreating foe, scoring a few left hands while Rodriguez is slowly and throwing less. Both men start throwing heavy leather, and Morales slaps away the oncoming fire so he can pin his right hand on Rodriguez’ chin. They both flurry briefly, and Morales gets the better of the exchange as Rodriguez is forced to back off and throw a body kick. Morales gives him chase and lands to the head and body, with Rodriguez bouncing off the cage wall. Morales rips the body, and Rodriguez counters him with a sharp right hand that makes Morales wave him on. With seconds to spare, both men throw caution to the wind and swing wildly, connecting practically at will and not budging until the final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Vince Morales def. Drako Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)

Vince Morales

Angelo leans Morales, noting that Rodriguez has a weak chin and Morales comes forward aggressively. He thinks Morales can touch that chin and get a finish. He calls it a 50/50 fight but likes Morales as an underdog pick.

"I think Morales could finish Rodriguez... we've seen Rodriguez have that soft chin syndrome."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Vince Morales

Big Brady likes Morales returning to his natural bantamweight after a loss at featherweight. He thinks Morales has power and will have a striking advantage against Rodriguez, who has poor striking defense and a questionable chin. He notes Rodriguez will try to grapple but Morales has a good get-up game. He predicts a third-round knockout as Rodriguez slows down.

third round knockout

"I'll say third round knockout for Vince Morales."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Drako Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, citing his sharper technical boxing and speed. He notes that Morales has poor ring IQ and doesn't use his wrestling, while Rodriguez has better output. Cody expects a decision win for Rodriguez.

Rodriguez by decision

"i think draco rodriguez is going to get the job done and again i think this one goes 15 minutes and it'll be rodriguez by decision"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Drako Rodriguez

Daniel Levi picks Drako Rodriguez, though not confidently. He criticizes Vince Morales as 'harmless' at the UFC level, lacking power and takedown options. He notes that Rodriguez has submission threats off his back and decent hands, but acknowledges that Rodriguez has been stopped in his two fights against UFC-caliber opponents. He believes Rodriguez will come with urgency after a surprising loss and that Morales is a favorable matchup for him.

"I'ma come in on the other side I mean it's not a confident pick here on Drako Rodriguez"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Vince Morales

Morales has better footwork, hand speed, and boxing. Rodriguez's best chance is to get the fight to the ground and use his jiu-jitsu, but he may struggle to take Morales down and hold him there. Morales should stuff takedowns and outwork Rodriguez on the feet, likely winning a decision. No big money on this fight.

"I like morales morales by decision again no real big read in the spot."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges the close nature and does not add his own analysis.

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Vince Morales

The MMA Guru picks Vince Morales over Drako Rodriguez. He acknowledges it's a tough pick but favors Morales' scrappiness, toughness, and better chin. He criticizes Rodriguez's poor striking defense and notes Morales has better cardio and output. He predicts Morales will out-hustle Rodriguez to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna go vince morales being a little bit better overall as a fighter"

THE MMA GURU

View all 12 fights

Expert Picks (9)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I think Taylor runs right through him... he weathers an early storm and then pieces Vince apart the rest of that fight."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Lapilus by decision

"lapis lapis by decision I think is the the pretty pretty clear pick"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"lapas just it may be uh decision it might just be Point fighting from the outside"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"Gotta take Lapolas here."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I think laus win I was like maybe they give us a decent price on laus decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I think lapis is uh starching him I think he's better on the feet I think he's powerful I like lapis a lot give me a lapolis by KO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

Paul agrees, noting Lapilus' excellent get-up game and striking. He believes Morales' wrestling won't be effective and that Lapilus will out-strike him clearly. He expects a unanimous decision.

"lapis should double him up in strikes and uh probably win a very clear unanimous decision"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"I'm going to go with Taylor laulis getting this one done split the decision"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Taylor Lapilus

"It's a pretty easy technical showcase for him to get Morales chasing him and just not really being able to do anything effective through chasing him at all."

MMA Vivisection

Taylor Lapilus

Vince Morales

Career Averages - Taylor Lapilus

Career Averages - Vince Morales

Taylor Lapilus

Vince Morales

Taylor Lapilus - Fight History

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Vince Morales - Fight History

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