UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler · Mar 15, 2014 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tyron Woodley
2.36 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.76 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carlos Condit
3.66 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.59 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Tyron Woodley - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission (brabo choke) R1 3:56 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes Luque's high volume (5.72 significant strikes per minute) compared to Woodley's low output (2.33), and that Woodley has lost 15 rounds in a row. He believes Woodley needs a knockout to win, but Luque has never been knocked out in 26 fights. He also mentions Woodley's age (38) and lack of takedowns since 2015. He is comfortable with Luque winning a volume-based decision.

Luque by decision; Luque in a parlay with Tai Tuivasa from last week
"i like luca here pretty comfortably outside of lu you know woodley being the first one to knock out luke"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque but is not overly confident due to the price. He notes that Woodley has been completely non-existent in his last three fights, losing every minute of every round. He worries that Woodley might finally let his hands go and catch Luque, who is hittable. However, he believes Luque's volume and technical striking will be enough to win a decision.

Luque by decision +150, fight goes to decision -150
"i ended up taking uh luke by decision plus 150 and fight goes to decision minus 150"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to knock out Tyron Woodley in the second round. He argues that Woodley has lost 15 straight rounds, is 40 years old, and no longer has the same speed or power. Levi believes Luque's calf kicks and left hook will break Woodley down, and that Woodley's hesitancy and lack of output will be his downfall. He notes that Luque has a 90% finish rate and is in a much better mental and physical condition.

second round knockout, calf kicks
"i think vicente lucay to knock tyron woodley out i'm gonna say second round first with the cav kick beating and then with the left hook or overhand right"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The host picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes that Woodley has been inactive, reliant on one-punch power, and has poor cardio, while Luque is a durable Muay Thai striker with good pressure and leg kicks. He mentions that Woodley's wrestling has been absent in recent fights and that Luque has never been knocked out in the UFC. He considers Woodley's inside distance prop at +600 as the only way to bet on him, but overall favors Luque's consistent output and pressure.

Woodley inside distance +600 is the only Woodley bet worth considering
"I do like Lukey here I think he wins this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, calling Woodley one of the least impressive champions in UFC history. He details Woodley's pattern of low volume and backing up, and notes that Luque throws a lot of volume and has clean striking. He acknowledges the risk of Woodley's power but thinks Luque's pace and pressure will be too much. He is not betting Luque as a top ticket but as a second-line play.

"i'm going to take vincente luke but he's not a top ticket guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The Guru picks Vicente Luque by unanimous decision, citing Woodley's decline and Luque's advantages. He notes Woodley fights to survive, gasses out, and has lost muscle mass, possibly off PEDs. Luque's training at Sanford MMA gives him a game plan similar to Burns and Covington: clinch work, body kicks, and pressure. He acknowledges Woodley's value as an underdog and his power, but trusts Luque's chin and durability. He predicts a 30-27 decision with Woodley having early moments.

Woodley by KO is a value bet; Luque by decision; odds disrespect Woodley
"i'm gonna go with vicente luke by decision i don't i really you know what i feel like woodley fights nowadays to survive and not to like win"
LOSS vs Colby Covington
TKO (rib injury) R5 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 78 of 143 54% 232 of 311 3 of 8 37% 0 0 12:01
Tyron Woodley 0 34 of 83 40% 67 of 116 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 13 of 32 40% 36 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 22 22% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 20 of 43 46% 32 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
Tyron Woodley 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
3 Colby Covington 0 23 of 31 74% 51 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:23
Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 26 46% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Colby Covington 0 18 of 28 64% 104 of 123 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:25
Tyron Woodley 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Tyron Woodley 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 78 of 143 54% 47 of 106 22 of 28 9 of 9 43 of 101 19 of 20 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 34 of 83 40% 14 of 58 15 of 20 5 of 5 26 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 13 of 32 40% 8 of 25 3 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 5 of 22 22% 1 of 15 3 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 20 of 43 46% 11 of 32 6 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 23 of 31 74% 11 of 19 10 of 10 2 of 2 15 of 23 8 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 12 of 26 46% 6 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 18 of 28 64% 17 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Big Brady picks Colby Covington by decision, believing Woodley is on the decline and Covington will use his wrestling and cardio to grind him out. He notes Covington averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and Woodley's takedown defense may not hold up. He expects Covington to survive Woodley's early power and take over in later rounds.

Covington by decision
"give me colby covington by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Colby Covington

The host is extremely confident in Colby Covington's pace, cardio, and pressure, believing Tyron Woodley's only path to victory is an early knockout. He notes Woodley's poor gas tank and tendency to fade, while Covington's relentless wrestling and volume will overwhelm him. He predicts a fifth-round stoppage due to accumulated damage, and recommends betting Covington straight up or on round 5 props.

Colby Covington wins by TKO in round 5 +2300; Colby Covington wins by decision (alternative)
"I am super [ __ ] confident in kobe comington here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Colby Covington

The host picks Colby Covington over Tyron Woodley, citing Covington's volume, pressure, pace, and offensive wrestling as the keys to beating Woodley. He notes that Woodley has been beaten by these attributes before (by Usman, Burns, Rory MacDonald, Jake Shields) and that Woodley is 38 and fading. He predicts a fourth-round TKO via unanswered shots as Woodley tires and fails to defend intelligently.

fourth round TKO via unanswered shots
"I think we're gonna see a fourth round tko finish not by concussive damage just by unanswered shots and woodley not really intelligently defending himself."
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 28 of 64 43% 65 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Tyron Woodley 0 83 of 138 60% 156 of 211 2 of 8 25% 1 0 7:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 2 of 8 25% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 34 73% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
2 Gilbert Burns 0 12 of 17 70% 34 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 20 55% 37 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
3 Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 19 of 42 45% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 8 62% 12 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:09
Tyron Woodley 0 18 of 24 75% 47 of 53 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:55
5 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 18 55% 24 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 28 of 64 43% 14 of 44 12 of 17 2 of 3 19 of 55 9 of 9 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 83 of 138 60% 41 of 82 27 of 31 15 of 25 51 of 102 13 of 16 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 34 73% 19 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 3 15 of 16
2 Gilbert Burns 12 of 17 70% 7 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 13 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 11 of 20 55% 3 of 8 6 of 7 2 of 5 5 of 12 4 of 6 2 of 2
3 Gilbert Burns 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 19 of 42 45% 6 of 23 7 of 10 6 of 9 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Gilbert Burns 5 of 8 62% 0 of 3 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 18 of 24 75% 11 of 17 6 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 16 6 of 6 2 of 2
5 Gilbert Burns 5 of 14 35% 4 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 10 of 18 55% 2 of 8 5 of 5 3 of 5 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
We have now reached the main event of the evening, in a pivotal welterweight pairing between ex-champ Woodley (19-4-1, 9-3-1 UFC) and the surging heavy-handed grappler Burns (18-3, 11-3 UFC). Since Woodley last competed, Burns has fought and won four times. This headliner will be officiated by referee Herb Dean, and a respectful glove touch commences the last fight of the night. Burns comes out energized, hopping around and avoiding long punches and a looping left hand from his opponent. Burns starts off with a low kick, and evades a counter left hand. They come together, and Burns nails Woodley with powerful uppercuts and short hooks. Woodley is stunned, and Burns bulldozes him over and puts Woodley down. The Brazilian chases after him and starts unloading furious punches, and steps over into mount while Woodley is still trying to clear his head out. Burns thinks to go for a submission, but opts to drop some left hands down. Woodley’s forehead is cut, and he sits up to put his neck in guillotine choke danger. Woodley calmly lays back down to get free from the threat, and Burns slices an elbow down. Burns remains heavy while trying to find an avenue to deal some damage, and Woodley is holding him tight. Burns postures up to rain down punishment, and Woodley uses that exact moment to burst out and get back to his feet. Burns takes the center of the cage and digs to the body with a kick. The left side of Woodley’s face is covered in blood, but the former champ is not afraid as he tries to throw a big left hand. Burns catches him on the way in with a low kick. Woodley tries to sticks out a left, and Burns fires a low kick that makes Woodley nod in acknowledgement. Burns hits him in the body with a kick, and clips Woodley with a left hand that makes Woodley clap his hands in frustration or to motivate himself. The round ends with a bloodied Woodley blinking his eye out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
With a solid cut on his head that has been patched well, Woodley is amped up and stings Burns with a right hand. Burns shakes it off and comes back to engage, only to get drilled on the side of the head once more with a solid right. Burns kicks low, and Woodley circles around the outside to reset. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Woodley’s offense has paused as he briefly reaches out his left hand to find distance. Burns stays loose on the outside, with kicks and the occasional jab while Woodley only reacts. Burns loads up on a huge right hand, and Woodley dives out of the way to avoid the blow. Burns crashes forward, and unexpectedly hits a double leg takedown -- Woodley’s takedown defense rate is historically high -- to plant Woodley on his back. Woodley tries to walk up the fence, and gets on knee but takes a knee to the torso. Burns tries to wrench him back down, so Woodley fights hands and takes a few stiff punches to get back standing again. Woodley turns around and lifts up a high knee, so Burns returns fire with a similar strike. Burns sneaks in a few short shots, and Woodley is only concerned with getting position back. Woodley grinds him against the fence for the waning seconds of the round, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
Woodley begins the third frame with a few jabs to keep Burns off of him, as Burns is advancing aggressively. Woodley is not following his jabs with any strikes, and only uses fakes after sticking his left hand out repeatedly. Burns commits to a low kick, and Woodley counters over the top with a straight right. Burns walks through it as if it never happened, and is hopping towards his opponent while blocking a few punches coming his direction. Burns fires a big right hook and hurts Woodley, but the former champ recovers well and returns fire with a right of his own. Burns drops his hands almost as if to taunt Woodley, and Woodley does not take advantage of it so Burns cracks him again. Woodley throws a big looping hook that lands on the shoulder, and Burns gives him a smirk. Burns aims for the body with a kick and a long jab, and the single strikes for the Brazilian are picking away at his adversary. Burns jumps forward with a kick and falls over, but “The Chosen One” perhaps wisely does not follow him down to the ground. Burns throws a left straight followed by a huge right hook, and Burns barely avoided it. “Durinho” tags the leg with a kick, and Woodley puts on a brave face but that kick did some damage. Burns is keeping Woodley with his back against the fence and he does not throw much offense going backwards. Burns digs to the body with another kick, and he ducks away while Woodley slings a right towards him. Burns works a few more low kicks, and Woodley is practically standing in front of him waiting to get too close so he can counter with a thudding right. Burns does not fall for the trap, and lands one last kick low to conclude the round. The Brazilian is so fired up that he is likely winning the fight that security practically drags him back to his corner after the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 4
The tentative nature of Woodley continues in the fourth, as Burns lands a left hook on him while not getting countered. Woodley ducks down to try to take the fight down, and Burns holds him up but gets shoved to the fence. After some grueling clinch work, Burns turns him around and lands a few knees and an “old school” foot stomp. Dean separates the two after some inaction, and Woodley celebrates the break with a big right hand that is blocked. Burns comes back firing, and lands a few sharp jabs that make Woodley clap again. A kick from Burns is caught, and Woodley tries to run the pipe and get him down but Burns hops away out of danger. Burns advances forward to get Woodley to bite on feints and fakes, and connects with a blistering right hook that nearly puts Woodley down. A follow-up right from “Durinho” lands on the side of the former champ’s head, and Woodley pursues a desperation takedown that is fruitless. After a clinch exchange, Burns is the one that pulls his man down again. Woodley is stuck on his back, while Burns gets in half guard and drops down some short punches. Burns steps over into mount and rolls into a potential choke, allowing Woodley to roll free and nearly end up on top. Burns pushes away, and when the round ends, we can see there is a massive cut on Woodley’s eyebrow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 5
Burns opens up with a kick, and Woodley counters with an overhand left that sends Burns off-balance. Burns shoots in low for a double, and transitions to a single as Woodley sprawls against the fence to defend it. Burns leans heavily to drain precious seconds off the clock, and Woodley tries with all his might to spin out but is stuck. Woodley manages to finally turn his man around, but the minor victory lasts about five seconds before Burns regains position. The Brazilian tries to tie up the legs and hit a trip, but Woodley is wise to it and spins him around again. Burns signals to Dean that Woodley is not doing anything with the position, and Dean calls for the two to work. Burns punches around the back of Woodley’s head until they break. Burns marches forward with two left hands, and scores a leg kick. Woodley unleashes a ferocious counter right, and Burns ducks it and smiles. Woodley catches him on the way in with a left, and Burns is caught upright but eats it like a sandwich. “Durinho” lands a body kick as he pecks away while time is just streaming off the clock. Less than 90 seconds remain and Woodley is still with his back to the cage, not throwing much. They tie up, and Woodley presses on him while Burns once again protests. Even though he is almost certainly up on every round, Burns is the fighter that wants to continue throwing leather. Burns fires body kicks and looping right hands, and he still wants a finish even though he could easily cruise to victory. Woodley lands a counter left along with a right that gets blocked, and the horn sounds to end a fight that is totally one-way traffic. We have a new title contender at welterweight, ladies and gentlemen. See you next week!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-45 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Big Brady picks Tyron Woodley to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Woodley's takedown defense is elite and that Burns will not be able to take him down. He thinks Burns will come in overconfident and get caught by a hard shot from Woodley, who hits very hard. However, he notes that Woodley's mental state is a question mark and that Burns could win a close decision if he outworks Woodley, but he ultimately favors Woodley's power and experience.

Woodley by KO in round 2; not touching from a betting perspective due to mental question marks
"I'm going to go with Woodley I'm going to pick Woodley to win by knockout and in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Daniel leans slightly towards Woodley, believing that at his best he is the better fighter. He acknowledges Woodley's mental fragility and poor performance against Usman, but thinks Woodley's wrestling and power give him a clear path to victory. He notes that Burns has improved but is still hittable and may struggle with Woodley's strength. Daniel calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and is not fully confident.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna slightly lean towards the former champion woodley because i think at his best that he's a better fighter than gilbert dorino"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

The MMA Guru picks Tyron Woodley to win by TKO in the second round. He believes Woodley will be patient, let Burns win the first round, then catch him with a counter shot when Burns gets overconfident and tired. He notes that Burns is on short notice and had close fights with Gunnar Nelson and Alexey Kunchenko, and that his win over Demian Maia is not impressive because Maia was looking for a fight with Diego Sanchez. He acknowledges Woodley's annoying style but respects his skill.

Woodley by TKO in round 2
"I'm going with tyron woodley here I think he's gonna get the job done in the second round by TKO"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 34 of 51 66% 60 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 141 of 194 72% 336 of 390 2 of 6 33% 0 0 18:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 8 of 11 72% 19 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 22 of 32 68% 68 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:53
2 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 21 of 29 72% 74 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 19 73% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 45 of 59 76% 78 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:51
4 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 16 62% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 38 of 58 65% 55 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
5 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 16 93% 61 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 34 of 51 66% 12 of 28 18 of 19 4 of 4 10 of 24 24 of 27 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 141 of 194 72% 56 of 104 83 of 87 2 of 3 27 of 73 78 of 82 36 of 39
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 8 of 11 72% 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 22 of 32 68% 5 of 14 16 of 17 1 of 1 4 of 14 16 of 16 2 of 2
2 Kamaru Usman 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 21 of 29 72% 16 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 8 7 of 7 11 of 14
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 19 73% 1 of 5 11 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 6 12 of 13 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 45 of 59 76% 2 of 15 43 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 13 45 of 46 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 10 of 16 62% 8 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 8 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 38 of 58 65% 28 of 47 9 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 36 10 of 13 9 of 9
5 Kamaru Usman 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 15 of 16 93% 5 of 5 10 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 14
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Demian Maia
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 153 37% 57 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Demian Maia 0 28 of 89 31% 29 of 90 0 of 21 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
2 Tyron Woodley 1 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Demian Maia 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
5 Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 8 of 20 40% 9 of 21 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 153 37% 40 of 131 13 of 18 4 of 4 56 of 152 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 28 of 89 31% 23 of 83 2 of 3 3 of 3 26 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 12 of 41 29% 9 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 24 33% 6 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 15 of 39 38% 11 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 10 of 26 38% 6 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 20 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (majority) (48–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Mar 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 54 of 125 43% 70 of 141 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:58
Stephen Thompson 0 53 of 146 36% 66 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 28 53% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
Stephen Thompson 0 14 of 28 50% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Tyron Woodley 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Tyron Woodley 1 17 of 47 36% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Stephen Thompson 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 54 of 125 43% 28 of 89 20 of 30 6 of 6 30 of 92 5 of 12 19 of 21
Stephen Thompson 53 of 146 36% 30 of 115 17 of 24 6 of 7 52 of 144 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 5 of 12 41% 0 of 5 1 of 3 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 19 31% 4 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 8 of 16 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 8 of 24 33% 4 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 15 of 28 53% 8 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 14 1 of 2 12 of 12
Stephen Thompson 14 of 28 50% 4 of 18 9 of 9 1 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 9 of 22 40% 1 of 12 8 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 12 of 34 35% 10 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 17 of 47 36% 16 of 43 1 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 28 4 of 10 7 of 9
Stephen Thompson 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 3 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Draw (majority) (47–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 61 of 141 43% 113 of 200 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:51
Stephen Thompson 0 43 of 161 26% 60 of 181 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 14 of 18 77% 45 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Stephen Thompson 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 4 of 22 18% 14 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 47 21% 10 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 1 27 of 41 65% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:46
Stephen Thompson 0 5 of 19 26% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:25
5 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 61 of 141 43% 42 of 111 13 of 21 6 of 9 23 of 93 13 of 18 25 of 30
Stephen Thompson 43 of 161 26% 26 of 125 11 of 28 6 of 8 42 of 152 0 of 1 1 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 14 of 18 77% 8 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 17
Stephen Thompson 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 4 of 22 18% 0 of 12 3 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 31 19% 4 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 8 of 32 25% 6 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 3 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 47 21% 5 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 27 of 41 65% 24 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 13 11 of 15 11 of 13
Stephen Thompson 5 of 19 26% 4 of 14 0 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 8
5 Tyron Woodley 8 of 28 28% 4 of 22 1 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 21 of 60 35% 13 of 47 6 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit - Fight History
LOSS vs Max Griffin
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 63 of 176 35% 66 of 179 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 93 of 171 54% 95 of 173 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Max Griffin 0 28 of 68 41% 28 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Max Griffin 0 22 of 66 33% 25 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 30 of 62 48% 31 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 63 of 176 35% 35 of 134 17 of 30 11 of 12 61 of 173 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 93 of 171 54% 59 of 129 6 of 11 28 of 31 81 of 153 2 of 2 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 13 of 42 30% 3 of 27 6 of 11 4 of 4 13 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 34 of 61 55% 18 of 41 0 of 1 16 of 19 24 of 45 0 of 0 10 of 16
2 Max Griffin 28 of 68 41% 17 of 51 7 of 12 4 of 5 28 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 29 of 48 60% 18 of 34 2 of 5 9 of 9 28 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 22 of 66 33% 15 of 56 4 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 30 of 62 48% 23 of 54 4 of 5 3 of 3 29 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin

Round 1
The prelims will be capped off by a welterweight battle that sees “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (32-13, 9-9 UFC) try to go on a three-fight win streak against the heavy-handed Griffin (17-8, 5-6 UFC). Depending on the result, either Condit will fall below .500 in the UFC or Griffin will rise to that level, barring an unusual turn of events. Referee Marc Goddard will keep a watchful eye on the violence that is about to be bestowed in the cage, and the fighters do not touch gloves before inflicting said violence. Griffin charges out of his corner to attack, with a low kick and several high kicks to sends the former WEC champ backing away. Condit greets him with a few punches to back him off, and he puts together a combination and a head kick that gets slapped away. Griffin chops down Condit’s lead leg multiple times, and Condit’s calf is already reddening from them. Condit fires off a body kick, and he cannot get out of the way from another leg kick. Griffin walks through a punch to land a heavier one, and his leg kick that follows spins Condit around. “The Natural Born Killer” does not block the kicks or check them, and he tries to go after Griffin with his own but Griffin is right there with another. Condit turns about with another few kicks, and the damage is mounting fast as Condit appears to be struggling with it. Condit chips at the calf and then the body, but he absorbs one more low kick. Condit is forced to switch stances, and Griffin greets the change of position with one on the other leg. Condit marches forward to attack, only to get his lead leg chopped down beneath him. Condit ducks down into a right hand, and Griffin slips it and comes back with an overhand right. Condit just comes up short with a counter right hand when Griffin advances, and he does kick the body successful on the way out. Griffin’s leg kick makes Condit pick it up and try to move with it, and the ex-champ strides in and kicks the body. Condit’s calves are swelling up fast, and he tries to connect with a spinning kick but gets pushed back. Griffin blasts him with a right hand, sending Condit crashing into the wall and down to the ground. Griffin looks for a finish, delivering some heavy ground-and-pound, but Condit threatens with an offensive guard and survives to fight his way back to his feet. Condit jumps at his foe with a flying knee, and Griffin sits down on a leg kick and takes a right hand on the chin. Condit marches forward to brawl, and Griffin is there to greet him until he ducks out of the way to avoid most of the danger before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The second round begins with both fighters meeting in the center of the Octagon, but neither commit to any strikes until Condit launches a head kick. Griffin blocks it and targets Condit’s lead leg with impunity, and the former champ can do nothing but take it. Condit takes a traditional martial arts stance as he looks to wind up a side kick, and he steps in to clinch and drill Griffin in the chin with a knee. Condit catches Griffin on the end of a right hand to send “Pain” staggering back, but it is likely out of balance and not damage. Griffin gains his composure and fires off a right hand, and he beats Condit to the punch with a follow-up jab. Condit ducks down into a leg kick, and he gets off a body kick but is countered on the way out. Condit checks a leg kick for the first time, and he whiffs on a body kick but sprints forward with a trip and throw takedown. Griffin manages to get back to his feet, only to meet a right hand from Condit. Condit sits down on a right hand as well, and a left to the body follows. Griffin keeps his right hand up high to counter Condit, and he takes a kick to the body while watching Condit’s movement. Condit’s pace appears to be growing while Griffin’s is decreasing, and Condit advances with a spinning kick that bounces off his intended target. Griffin scores a leg kick, and Condit ducks down to trip his foe but cannot achieve it. Condit unloads with several punches to the head and body, and he marks up Griffin with a clean right hand. Condit reaches forward with an elbow, a right hand, and a cartwheel kick that comes up short. Condit ignores a low kick to crack Griffin on the chin, and “The Natural Born Killer” ignores a leg kick so that he can continue to strike. Griffin times Condit when Condit darts forward with a right hand, and Condit leads the dance and boots “Pain” in the side with a kick. Griffin pushes Condit away and the two jab at the same time, and Condit slips and delivers a right hand. Condit dips in with a left hand and a head kick, and the round ends when Griffin kicks him back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Condit

Round 3
Between rounds, we can see the damage on Condit’s nose, but he pays it no mind and is ready for the final frame. Condit offers a glove touch, and Griffin pushes his hand away and tries to get off an overhand right. Condit ducks down and clocks Griffin in the chin with a head kick, but the Californian eats it like a steak. Griffin blitzes forward to attack, and he clubs Condit with a few punches to make “The Natural Born Killer” fall into the cage wall. Condit catches a body kick, and he pushes Griffin over to force Griffin to roll through and get back up. As Griffin tries to stand up, Condit batters him with strikes, until Griffin gathers his thoughts and starts to land hard hooks. Griffin scores single punches square on the chin, and Condit walks through them and throws right back at him. Condit slips one such punch to land a left hand, and Griffin stands tall and scores again. A three-punch combination stands Condit up, but Condit is not concerned and instead is fired up as he strings together a length combination to back Griffin up. At the end of a salvo, Condit tags Griffin with a right hand, and Griffin looks for a right hand counter but comes up short. Condit jabs out and flusters Griffin for a moment, before stepping in with an elbow. Condit advances with long, stinging jabs, and he walks face-first into a right hand that he completely ignores. Condit digs a left hand to the body and draws a pained reaction out of “Pain,” and he shoots in for a takedown to keep Griffin guessing. The takedown does not succeed, but Condit is able to knee in the body a few times. Griffin smashes Condit in the face with a right hand, and he bullies Condit into the fence and hits a takedown. Griffin takes half guard, but Condit rolls and is able to stand up after briefly threatening with an armbar. Griffin clings on to him for one final takedown try, and Condit attacks with a kimura and a guillotine but neither are there. Condit drops down to attack a leg of his opponent, and he takes Griffin’s back at the bell. This is going to be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Angelo picks Griffin despite rooting for Condit. He notes Condit is slowing down at 37, while Griffin is faster and stronger. He thinks Griffin's speed and power will overcome Condit's technical advantages. He has Griffin in his DraftKings lineup.

"i have max griffin winning this fight uh i'll be rooting for carlos condit kind of because i also do have max griffin in my draftkings lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by decision. He emphasizes that Griffin should use his wrestling, as Condit has been taken down in every fight where opponents attempted takedowns. He notes Griffin averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. He thinks the striking will be close but the takedowns will be the difference. He mentions Condit's recent wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown but notes McGee didn't wrestle, which was a mistake.

"i'm going to take max griffin to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody picks Griffin but prefers the submission prop at 20-1 on DraftKings. He notes Griffin's wrestling advantage and believes his best path is takedowns and submissions. He thinks Griffin can win by submission despite no UFC subs, citing Condit's vulnerability.

Griffin by submission at +2000 on DraftKings; Griffin by decision at +135
"give me the 20 to one on a minus 190 favorite in what i believe is his best path to victory"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Condit as a slight lean, acknowledging it's an illogical pick. He admits Condit is past his prime and that Griffin probably should win by decision using top control. However, he respects Condit's veteran savvy and believes he can do something sneaky to pull off an upset. He notes that Condit still has fight in him, as seen in the Oliveira fight where he almost got a submission. He is not confident in the pick.

"i'm gonna i'm gonna edge connor to do something sneaky and upset a lot of people"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Jacob picks Condit, citing his recent performances and value at 7500. He notes Condit has never been knocked out and has looked great against Matt Brown. He thinks Condit's experience and takedowns will be key. He compares Condit's potential run to Glover Teixeira's late-career surge.

"i honestly think carlos conda at 7 500 is one of the best values on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

I like Max Griffin here. Condit's takedown defense is terrible (35% defense), and Griffin has good pressure and takedowns. Condit hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC, and Griffin's cardio is good enough to grind out a decision. I expect Griffin to land takedowns and control the fight, winning by decision. The line might seem wide, but I trust Griffin to exploit Condit's weakness.

Griffin by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i like max griffin here... i think griffin by decision the line might seem a little bit wide to some people which is why i understand excuse me why some people might be taking carlos conant in the spot but …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Paul picks Griffin by decision at +135. He notes Griffin's wrestling and volume striking, and Condit's durability. He thinks Griffin will use takedowns to secure rounds. He doesn't like the moneyline at -190.

Griffin by decision at +135
"i'm gonna go with a griffin by decision but uh you know i the confidence level not not where i'd wanted just to slam that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Condit by 29-28 unanimous decision in an upset. He expects Griffin to win the first round by landing big shots on Condit's chin, but Condit's chin will hold up. As the fight goes on, Condit will invest in body shots, leg kicks, and takedowns, mixing in grappling and counter hooks. Griffin will become boxing-heavy and head-hunt, while Condit circles out and lands. The Guru sees Condit taking the second and third rounds with a more varied attack.

"i'm gonna go with carlos condit here by decision in an upset i think max griffin is good i think he's gonna be doing good early in this fight but as the rounds go on i think condit will make …"
WIN vs Matt Brown
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 1 88 of 230 38% 88 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 84 of 182 46% 84 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 1 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 31 of 63 49% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Condit 0 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Condit 0 43 of 121 35% 43 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 88 of 230 38% 50 of 173 17 of 34 21 of 23 87 of 228 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 84 of 182 46% 9 of 73 28 of 51 47 of 58 84 of 182 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 15 of 38 39% 5 of 19 4 of 12 6 of 7 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 31 of 63 49% 3 of 22 11 of 17 17 of 24 31 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Condit 30 of 71 42% 17 of 54 7 of 11 6 of 6 30 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 26 of 56 46% 3 of 19 6 of 17 17 of 20 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 43 of 121 35% 28 of 100 6 of 11 9 of 10 42 of 119 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 27 of 63 42% 3 of 32 11 of 17 13 of 14 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.

"give me court mcgee to win a pretty pretty ugly decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.

Condit by split decision; mentions McGee's camp issues; notes Condit's submission threat off his back
"i think conde might actually this is the one fight con that can win ben saunders beat this guy so i'm gonna go with carlos conde via split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.

Over 2.5 rounds -250 (not recommended)
"my head definitely says court mcgee... but even at minus 135 i can't take the shot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.

Prediction: submission (armbar) round 2 or decision
"i'm going to be going with carlos condit getting a job done taller guy naturally bigger welterweight can push the pace as well"
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission (kimura) R2 0:56 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 5 of 24 20% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:18
Carlos Condit 0 10 of 22 45% 16 of 33 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 15 26% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:18
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:42
2 Michael Chiesa 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 5 20% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 5 of 24 20% 2 of 18 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 2
Carlos Condit 10 of 22 45% 8 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 15 26% 2 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 9 2 of 4 1 of 2
Carlos Condit 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 12
2 Michael Chiesa 1 of 9 11% 0 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:17 · UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 42 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:52
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 23 39% 22 of 37 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 5 of 6 83% 28 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:01
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 9 of 14 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
2 Alex Oliveira 0 7 of 12 58% 14 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Carlos Condit 0 8 of 17 47% 13 of 23 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 6 of 12 2 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 7
Carlos Condit 9 of 23 39% 8 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 5 of 6 83% 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alex Oliveira 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 6
Carlos Condit 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 14
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Dec 30, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 37 of 112 33% 64 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Carlos Condit 0 32 of 114 28% 64 of 150 6 of 9 66% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 10 of 31 32% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 35 25% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:40
2 Neil Magny 0 10 of 20 50% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Carlos Condit 0 6 of 23 26% 27 of 47 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:47
3 Neil Magny 0 17 of 61 27% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Carlos Condit 0 17 of 56 30% 22 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 37 of 112 33% 10 of 69 10 of 21 17 of 22 32 of 103 5 of 9 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 32 of 114 28% 14 of 83 13 of 21 5 of 10 24 of 102 6 of 9 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 10 of 31 32% 3 of 20 2 of 5 5 of 6 7 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 9 of 35 25% 3 of 23 6 of 9 0 of 3 6 of 29 2 of 4 1 of 2
2 Neil Magny 10 of 20 50% 3 of 11 3 of 5 4 of 4 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 6 of 23 26% 2 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Neil Magny 17 of 61 27% 4 of 38 5 of 11 8 of 12 17 of 58 0 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 17 of 56 30% 9 of 42 4 of 9 4 of 5 14 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 1
LOSS vs Demian Maia
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:52 · UFC on Fox: Maia vs. Condit · Aug 27, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 1 of 1 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:19
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 1 of 1 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:19
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1
LOSS vs Robbie Lawler
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit · Jan 02, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 92 of 177 51% 93 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Carlos Condit 0 176 of 495 35% 177 of 497 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 0 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Robbie Lawler 1 10 of 23 43% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Carlos Condit 0 17 of 71 23% 18 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robbie Lawler 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Carlos Condit 0 22 of 78 28% 22 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
4 Robbie Lawler 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 47 of 98 47% 47 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Robbie Lawler 0 53 of 92 57% 53 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 62 of 173 35% 62 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 92 of 177 51% 82 of 167 7 of 7 3 of 3 76 of 153 14 of 20 2 of 4
Carlos Condit 176 of 495 35% 96 of 372 47 of 79 33 of 44 149 of 447 27 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 28 of 75 37% 9 of 52 9 of 12 10 of 11 23 of 67 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Robbie Lawler 10 of 23 43% 8 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 4
Carlos Condit 17 of 71 23% 6 of 49 4 of 11 7 of 11 16 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Robbie Lawler 11 of 26 42% 9 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 22 of 78 28% 6 of 50 9 of 20 7 of 8 20 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Robbie Lawler 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 47 of 98 47% 27 of 73 14 of 17 6 of 8 39 of 86 8 of 12 0 of 0
5 Robbie Lawler 53 of 92 57% 50 of 89 2 of 2 1 of 1 44 of 78 9 of 14 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 62 of 173 35% 48 of 148 11 of 19 3 of 6 51 of 148 11 of 25 0 of 0