Career Averages - Jéssica Andrade
Career Averages - Raquel Pennington
Jéssica Andrade - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 90 of 287 | 31% | 97 of 297 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 107 of 213 | 50% | 119 of 226 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 18 of 83 | 21% | 18 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 15 of 63 | 23% | 22 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 40 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 57 of 141 | 40% | 57 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 36 of 92 | 39% | 38 of 95 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 90 of 287 | 31% | 58 of 242 | 21 of 31 | 11 of 14 | 87 of 279 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 107 of 213 | 50% | 91 of 195 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 94 of 195 | 11 of 16 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 18 of 83 | 21% | 13 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 40 of 71 | 56% | 31 of 62 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 15 of 63 | 23% | 11 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 31 of 50 | 62% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 40 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 57 of 141 | 40% | 34 of 112 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 56 of 137 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 36 of 92 | 39% | 34 of 88 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 85 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Godinez has a giant grappling advantage and is the better fighter technically, but her fight IQ is questionable. He assumes she will make the right decisions and take Pepto before the fight. He thinks Andrade is a brute force brawler with limited skills, so Godinez should win if she doesn't do dumb things.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by second-round submission. He notes Andrade has been inconsistent and looks awful on the ground recently, with poor takedown defense. He thinks Godinez's path to victory is to mix in takedowns and grapple, as Andrade has been submitted many times. He worries about Godinez's fight IQ but trusts her to wrestle here. He mentions Godinez has a couple of submissions in the UFC and is working on her grappling.
The host expresses disappointment in Godinez's development but thinks she can handle Andrade's aggressive striking. He predicts Godinez will land enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind out a decision, surviving the third round.
The Guru picks Jéssica Andrade to win by TKO in round two. He believes Andrade will be too overwhelming with her punches for Loopy Godinez. The Guru notes that Godinez is easily hittable and has had close fights with lower-level competition. He doesn't see Godinez finishing Andrade or taking her down and submitting her. Despite Andrade's recent losses, the Guru thinks she is a step above Godinez's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-298), Andrade (+240)
Round 1
Andrade (26-13, 17-11 UFC), the winningest female fighter in the company, would like nothing more than to add one more to her ledger. Standing in her way will be significant betting favorite and sentimental local favorite Jasudavicius (13-3, 7-2 UFC), who rides the longest win streak (four) of her career. Referee Jason Herzog clocks the flyweights in as they get down to business, starting off with a glove touch. Andrade takes the center of the Octagon, while Jasudavicius looks for a jab that is out of range early. Andrade rushes out with a right hand and then hops back, and she leans in with kicks on the inside and outside of the lead leg. Jasudavicius kicks her back once, and she tags the Brazilian with a one-two. Andrade smiles at her. Andrade tosses out a right hand and a low kick, and her foe catches her with a long right hand. When Andrade tries to strike back, Jasudavicius lifts her in the air and slams her down hard. Jasudavicius starts beating on the former strawweight champ, landing punches and taking her back. Andrade looks to crawl back up, and Jasudavicius is a 125-pound weight on her back dragging her down. Jasudavicius gets one hook in and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. When there is no submission, Jasudavicius smacks her on both sides of the head.
Jasudavicius flattens Andrade out, and she wraps up a rear-naked choke that is tight as a drum. Andrade posts off and tries to grit it out, but there is nothing she can do at this point in that position. With her other hand, “Bate Estaca” taps out
, and the roof on the building practically blows off. The Canadian releases the grip and rushes to her corner to celebrate, who award her with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as a prize for the career-best triumph. It was smooth sailing for the Canadian, who barely got touched by one of the most dangerous women to ever grace the cage.
The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Jessica Andrade R1 2:40 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is confident in Jasmine Jasudavicius, calling it a tailor-made fight for her. He notes Jasmine is a wrestler with great hips and cardio, while Andrade is a bully without great takedown defense. He expresses minor concern about Jasmine's win streak and whether she's truly top-tier, but ultimately picks her. He mentions possibly parlaying her with Mike Malott.
Big Brady is confident in Jasudavicius, citing her size, strength, and ground game. He notes Andrade has poor takedown defense and looks like a white belt off her back. He predicts Jasudavicius will dominate on the ground, eventually securing a submission in the second round, possibly a front choke or crucifix TKO.
The host views this as a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian Jasudavicius, expecting her to avoid Andrade's power striking and use her size and reach advantage to take the fight to the ground. He predicts she will land big shots from top position and get a TKO victory.
The MMA Guru picks Jasudavicius, noting her recent dominance and improvement. He thinks Andrade loses presence at flyweight and can be overwhelmed by a scrappy, larger opponent. He expects Jasudavicius to mix striking and grappling, eventually securing takedowns and control, winning by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 50 of 140 | 35% | 62 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 117 of 208 | 56% | 119 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 74 | 44% | 33 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 50 of 140 | 35% | 33 of 114 | 13 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 136 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 117 of 208 | 56% | 67 of 151 | 38 of 45 | 12 of 12 | 106 of 197 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 24 of 56 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 74 | 44% | 14 of 53 | 12 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 37 of 69 | 53% | 20 of 47 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 64 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 15 of 47 | 31% | 8 of 37 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 47 of 65 | 72% | 33 of 51 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.
Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.
Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.
Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.
Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 89 of 180 | 49% | 124 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 82 of 228 | 35% | 94 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 49 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 107 | 32% | 35 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 31 of 85 | 36% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 89 of 180 | 49% | 35 of 110 | 14 of 18 | 40 of 52 | 79 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 82 of 228 | 35% | 70 of 207 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 77 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 14 of 23 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 86 | 48% | 21 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 16 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 35 of 107 | 32% | 34 of 104 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 104 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 71 | 46% | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 31 of 85 | 36% | 27 of 75 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.
Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.
Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.
Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.
Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 | 53 of 107 | 49% | 53 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 49 of 114 | 42% | 50 of 115 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 3 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 25 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 53 of 107 | 49% | 27 of 76 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 22 | 43 of 90 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 49 of 114 | 42% | 38 of 100 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 27 of 50 | 54% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 14 | 18 of 37 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 57 | 42% | 15 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 57 | 45% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 53 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 25 of 57 | 43% | 23 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.
Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.
James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.
Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.
The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing Andrade is on a losing streak and has lost confidence. He notes Dern's improved grappling and boxing, citing her dominant win over Angela Hill. He predicts Dern will submit Andrade in round two, as Andrade has been vulnerable on her back recently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 25 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 23 of 49 | 46% | 3 of 20 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 27 | 40% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 30 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.
Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.
Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.
James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.
Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.
Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.
The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.
Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.
The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.
Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.
The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.
Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 53 of 143 | 37% | 56 of 147 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 51 of 120 | 42% | 53 of 124 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 40 of 106 | 37% | 43 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 44 of 100 | 44% | 46 of 104 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 53 of 143 | 37% | 28 of 107 | 5 of 16 | 20 of 20 | 50 of 137 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 51 of 120 | 42% | 38 of 105 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 50 of 117 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 40 of 106 | 37% | 22 of 80 | 4 of 12 | 14 of 14 | 37 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 44 of 100 | 44% | 32 of 86 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 43 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 13 of 37 | 35% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 7 of 20 | 35% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.
Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.
Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.
Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.
Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.
Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.
The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.
Raquel Pennington - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 1 | 92 of 317 | 29% | 112 of 345 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 92 of 260 | 35% | 123 of 308 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 17 of 60 | 28% | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 18 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 8 of 34 | 23% | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 35 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 4 | Julianna Peña | 1 | 26 of 84 | 30% | 26 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 16 of 67 | 23% | 18 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 35 of 115 | 30% | 35 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 92 of 317 | 29% | 57 of 277 | 29 of 33 | 6 of 7 | 88 of 308 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 |
| Raquel Pennington | 92 of 260 | 35% | 82 of 248 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 90 of 256 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 17 of 60 | 28% | 12 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 25 of 59 | 42% | 24 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 6 of 24 | 25% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 8 of 34 | 23% | 5 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 18 of 33 | 54% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Julianna Peña | 26 of 84 | 30% | 12 of 69 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
| Raquel Pennington | 16 of 67 | 23% | 14 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Julianna Peña | 35 of 115 | 30% | 26 of 105 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 113 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 27 of 85 | 31% | 24 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.
Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.
Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.
Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.
The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.
Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 134 of 201 | 66% | 265 of 342 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 2 | 11:28 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 69 of 88 | 78% | 96 of 118 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 | 0 | 8:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 18 of 22 | 81% | 27 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 47 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:04 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 29 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 52 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:35 | |
| 4 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 29 of 38 | 76% | 75 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:17 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 8 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 5 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 34 of 46 | 73% | 65 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 134 of 201 | 66% | 91 of 156 | 32 of 34 | 11 of 11 | 54 of 110 | 38 of 43 | 42 of 48 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 69 of 88 | 78% | 32 of 44 | 26 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 28 of 45 | 38 of 40 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 18 of 22 | 81% | 11 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 33 of 52 | 63% | 29 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 40 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 20 of 30 | 66% | 7 of 14 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 27 of 43 | 62% | 13 of 28 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 4 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 17 of 20 | 85% | 6 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Raquel Pennington | 29 of 38 | 76% | 22 of 31 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 22 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 7 of 8 | 87% | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Raquel Pennington | 34 of 46 | 73% | 20 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 22 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 7 of 8 | 87% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bueno Silva (-170), Pennington (+142)
Round 1
The post-Amanda Nunes era at bantamweight truly begins, as eternal contender Pennington and the red-hot Bueno Silva meet to contest the belt vacated last year by the “Lioness,” who in a nice touch by the UFC is in attendance cageside with her family. Canada’s own Jerin Valel draws the referee assignment for this five-round title fight. Both fighters are in orthodox stance to open the fight. Bueno Silva throws a leg kick that glances, and Pennington rushes forward with a flurry of punches, backing the Brazilian up. Bueno Silva touches Pennington’s lead leg with a solid low kick. They engage again, and Pennington grabs hold of Bueno Silva and shoves her to the fence. Bueno Silva clasps her arms as Pennington throws a few short strikes. Bueno Silva breaks the clinch, and lands another hard calf kick. Pennington grabs a single-leg and tries to take Bueno Silva down, but Bueno Silva defends easily. Pennington goes for another quick single moments later, and they move to the fence. Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back as she drags her to the canvas and quickly locks up a choke. Pennington fights the hands expertly, standing as she does so. Pennington breaks the grip to the point that she feels safe throwing elbow strikes to the thigh of Bueno Silva. Bueno Silva gives up on the choke and briefly loses back control as Pennington scrapes her against the chain-link, but hops back on her back and pulls her to a sitting position against the fence. She throws strikes from seated back control until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Round 2
Pennington comes forward with a triple jab, backing Bueno Silva up and dodging the first calf kick that comes her way. Bueno Silva throws another calf kick, backing Pennington to the fence as she does so, then uses underhooks to keep her there. Pennington throws knee up the middle, then another, and switches her hooks to reverse Bueno Silva against the fence. She lets Bueno Silva off the fence and tags her with three punches as she does so. Bueno Silva comes back with a single counter, but it’s a solid one. Bueno Silva clinches and puts Pennington back on the fence. They exchange knee strikes in close quarters. Bueno Silva tags Pennington with a pair of uppercuts to the body, and Pennington comes back across the top with a big punch to the head that rocks her. They get a little space and Pennington hits her with two more good shots to the head. Bueno Silva is hurt and goes staggering back to the fence. Pennington gives chase but ends up clinching, without enough space to follow up with more big shots. They disengage and fight a running battle all the way back across the cage, where Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back once again and tries for the rear-naked choke. Pennington calmly defends, but again she is standing with Bueno Silva in back control. Bueno Silva loses the choke moments before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 3
Pennington scores first with a long overhand right. Bueno Silva lands two good right low kicks in succession. Pennington clinches and runs Bueno Silva to the fence, where the Brazilian promptly reverses her. Bueno Silva pushes her into the chain-link, looking to move to her back, but Pennington defends well and throws a knee to the body. Pennington takes the outside position. Bueno Silva uses a whizzer kick to toss Pennington to the ground, but Pennington kicks her off and sweeps to stand. Halfway through the round it’s Pennington driving Bueno Silva into the cage. Bueno Silva throws a knee to the body then reverses Pennington into the fence. The two would-be champs spend several long moments exchanging sporadic knees on the inside. Bueno Silva grabs a front headlock and briefly threatens, but Pennington escapes and tosses her to the canvas, ending up on top in half guard with an arm around the neck. Pennington gets up and Bueno Silva stays on the ground, suddenly looking very tired. She seems to want Pennington to go back into her guard, but Pennington is having none of it and Valel waves her up. The round expires a few moments later.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 4
Pennington steps right in a smashes Bueno Silva with a right overhand. She throws another pair of punches as Bueno Silva comes forward, looking for the clinch. Pennington quickly reverses her against the cage, but elects to stay there, throwing short punches—rather than disengage as her corner is loudly imploring her to do. Bueno Silva moves to try and take Pennington’s back against the cage. Pennington defends for a moment, but Bueno Silva persists and gets the position, then slaps on another rear-naked choke. It isn’t completely under the chin, and Pennington is turning red as she fights it off. She shrugs Bueno Silva partway off her back, but Bueno Silva continues to threaten with the choke even from the side. Finally, Pennington spins all the way into Bueno Silva’s guard at the base of the fence. She throws strikes as Bueno Silva throws her legs up for a possible triangle or armbar, but none of them are enough to really threaten, and Pennington keeps pouring on the punches and hammerfists. At the 30-second mark, Pennington postures up and comes down with a big hammerfist that draws a reaction from the Brazilian. The round ends a moment later, and Bueno Silva is slow to get up.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 5
Pennington is first off the blocks with a left and right hook. Bueno Silva swings back, advancing as she does so. Pennington seems motivated to deny her the clinch, especially against the cage, but Bueno Silva manages to get her there anyway. Bueno Silva tries for some kind of body lock, but bails on it and goes for a kneebar on her way down. There’s nothing doing there, and Pennington lands on top, sliding to mount as she locks up an arm-triangle choke. Bueno Silva is surviving just fine, as Pennington is in complete control of the position but apparently can’t get enough torque to finish the choke. Pennington moves out to one side without completely surrendering the mount, and Bueno Silva is slowly turning away from her. A minute and a half to go, and Pennington gives up the choke, settling in Bueno Silva’s half guard. Pennington pours on the punches as Bueno Silva clings to her, eyes closed, just hanging on. Valel looks on and Pennington stands out of guard, throwing kicks to the legs of her supine foe. Pennington dives in with a couple of big, but glancing punches right before the final horn. Barring a historically horrible judging gaffe, “Rocky” should be your new UFC women's bantamweight champion in about two minutes here.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Pennington (49-45 Pennington)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Mayra Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
Angelo picks Pennington, citing her experience, pressure, and control style. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's power and submissions but believes Pennington's grit and high-level experience will prevail. He has a quarter unit on Pennington at plus 135 and will monitor for better value. He notes the potential distraction of Pennington's eight-month-old baby.
Big Brady picks Silva, noting her submission skills are top-notch. He expects the fight to hit the mat at some point, where Silva will have the advantage. He thinks the striking will be close but Silva's forward pressure and durability will be key. He predicts a submission win for Silva.
Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident, citing her submission threat and the fact that Pennington fights in the clinch where Silva caught Holly Holm. However, he worries about Silva's cardio and the lack of her ADHD medication (ritalinic acid) in a five-round fight. He sees Pennington as a live underdog but ultimately goes with Silva.
Vreeland picks Bueno Silva, analyzing her striking success against Holly Holm. He notes that Silva found the range against Holm and landed impactful strikes. He contrasts Pennington's lack of range kicks and long fighting style, which should allow Silva to close distance. Vreeland also mentions Silva's submission threat if Pennington shoots takedowns. He sees Silva overwhelming Pennington on the feet.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mayra Bueno Silva to become the new bantamweight champion. He highlights her heavy power, devastating leg kicks, and finishing instinct, including the ninja choke. He expects her calf kicks to be effective against Pennington's stationary boxing style, and believes she will land the harder shots throughout the fight, possibly finishing or winning a decision.
Fox picks Bueno Silva as the better fighter, but acknowledges Pennington's tendency to win. He notes Pennington's year-long layoff as a concern. Fox doesn't provide detailed technical analysis but defers to Silva's overall skill advantage.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host only covers the main event, co-main event (Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez), and other fights, but not Pennington vs Bueno Silva.
I'm leaning on Bueno Silva to win inside the distance, likely by submission. Pennington could be the busier fighter and win rounds with volume, but Bueno Silva has a finish-heavy style that can break and frustrate Pennington. I think Bueno Silva lands a shot that opens up a clinch and sub opportunity. I'm not taking the moneyline at -155; I prefer the inside distance prop. I'd be very surprised if Pennington finishes Bueno Silva.
Paul picks Pennington, emphasizing her experience in five-round fights, superior cardio, and wrestling. He notes Bueno Silva's submission threat but believes Pennington can avoid submissions and take over in later rounds. He also jokes about Silva missing her ADHD medication affecting her focus.
The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her higher finishing potential and submission ability. He notes her win over Holly Holm (though overturned) and her competitive fight with Manon Fiorot. He believes she will submit Pennington with a knee bar in round two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 64 of 152 | 42% | 138 of 230 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 81 of 159 | 50% | 104 of 184 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 23 of 71 | 32% | 29 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 42 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 32 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 67 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 45 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 64 of 152 | 42% | 41 of 122 | 5 of 10 | 18 of 20 | 56 of 143 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 81 of 159 | 50% | 37 of 111 | 32 of 35 | 12 of 13 | 59 of 134 | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 23 of 71 | 32% | 15 of 58 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 27 of 58 | 46% | 14 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 21 of 51 | 41% | 10 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 19 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 29 of 61 | 47% | 14 of 43 | 11 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 20 of 30 | 66% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 25 of 40 | 62% | 9 of 24 | 12 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 29 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)
Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.
Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.
Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.
Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.
Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.
Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.
Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.
Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 65 of 160 | 40% | 102 of 199 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 114 of 195 | 58% | 136 of 218 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 25 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 26 of 68 | 38% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 52 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 49 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 44 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 65 of 160 | 40% | 37 of 118 | 21 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 52 of 145 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 114 of 195 | 58% | 57 of 133 | 47 of 52 | 10 of 10 | 89 of 166 | 25 of 29 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 20 of 60 | 33% | 13 of 48 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 40 of 74 | 54% | 24 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 26 of 68 | 38% | 19 of 53 | 2 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 63 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 49 of 82 | 59% | 29 of 60 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 42 of 74 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 19 of 32 | 59% | 5 of 17 | 13 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 25 of 39 | 64% | 4 of 17 | 15 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 22 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Aspen Ladd, citing her toughness and 'dog' mentality. He thinks Pennington's style of cage pressure and control won't work against Ladd's refusal to be bullied. He notes Ladd's power and wrestling, and says this is a no-bet situation.
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington to win by decision. He notes Pennington has solid takedown defense and should keep the fight on the feet, where she can outstrike Ladd. Ladd looked terrible in her last fight against Norma Dumont, landing only 3 strikes in the first round. Brady thinks Ladd's path to victory is takedowns, but Pennington is strong and physical enough to stuff them.
Cody also leans Ladd, but emphasizes the weight cut risk. He notes Pennington's recent wins are over low-level opponents and that she has been taken down by her last three foes. Cody thinks Ladd's top game will be decisive if she makes weight. He plans to watch weigh-ins before betting, and is interested in the under if Ladd looks drained.
Levi sees Raquel Pennington as the more well-rounded fighter with takedowns and a grinding style. He worries about Aspen Ladd's top pressure and ground-and-pound, but thinks Pennington's takedown defense and experience against top competition (including Amanda Nunes) will allow her to mix strikes and takedowns. He expects a decision win for Pennington, though he is not rushing to bet at -190.
I think we'll see a better version of Aspen Ladd than last time. She should be able to push Pennington against the cage, drag her to the floor, and have success with ground and pound. Pennington struggles when fights hit the mat. Ladd will grind out a decision victory.
Paul leans towards Ladd as an underdog but conditions it on her making weight. He notes Pennington's takedown defense is weak and that Ladd has ferocious ground and pound. Paul thinks if Ladd gets top position, she'll smash Pennington. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds if Ladd looks bad at weigh-ins. He calls Ladd his first underdog pick of the card.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington, criticizing Aspen Ladd's lack of grit and poor performance in her last fight. He expects Pennington to push the pace and win a 30-27 decision, noting that Ladd has changed her style since being KO'd and no longer leads the dance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 45 of 79 | 56% | 61 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 26 of 86 | 30% | 64 of 126 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 37 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 48 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 45 of 79 | 56% | 22 of 48 | 20 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 71 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 26 of 86 | 30% | 16 of 65 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 22 of 79 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 24 of 38 | 63% | 10 of 21 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 15 of 48 | 31% | 11 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 21 of 41 | 51% | 12 of 27 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 11 of 38 | 28% | 5 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.
Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.
Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.
Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.
The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.
Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 50 of 98 | 51% | 85 of 144 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:34 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 98 of 144 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 43 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 50 of 98 | 51% | 26 of 68 | 20 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 50 | 37 of 48 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 48 of 79 | 60% | 26 of 56 | 17 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 49 | 23 of 28 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 12 of 19 | 63% | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 10 of 17 | 58% | 7 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 12 of 18 | 66% | 7 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 28 of 62 | 45% | 16 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 37 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 28 of 49 | 57% | 16 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 33 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington because she will march forward, hold Pannie against the cage, and neutralize her boxing. He notes that Pennington's losses are to current/former champions and that she is a boring but effective grappler. He likes the -132 odds and thinks they will move. He is confident Pennington stifles Pannie's combinations.
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her superior level of competition and ability to grind against the cage. He notes Kianzad was outstruck by Alexis Davis and has shown vulnerability to wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Pennington, though he wishes the price were better and likely won't bet it.
Cody picks Kianzad as a slight underdog, citing her better striking and improved takedown defense. He notes that Pennington is a grinder but has looked mentally off in recent fights. Cody believes Kianzad can keep the fight at range and outwork Pennington.
Daniel Levi leans with Raquel Pennington. He calls Kianzad an overachiever and thinks Pennington's record is misleading because she has fought the best. He sees similar boxing-centric styles but gives the edge to Pennington, expecting a close decision. He notes he usually likes to dog close decisions but here he leans with Pennington.
Preet picks Pennington because she is good at everything and has better cardio and forward pressure. He thinks Kianzad is a better technical striker but Pennington will nullify her with clinch work and takedowns. He expects a decision and likes the fight goes to decision at +125.
Paul agrees with taking Kianzad at plus money, noting that Pennington's style could lead to a close decision. He thinks Kianzad's volume and range striking give her an edge, but acknowledges the smaller cage may favor Pennington's grinding.
The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington, praising Kianzad's fundamentals, dirty boxing, and recent form. He questions Pennington's motivation and activity, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision for Kianzad.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 107 of 154 | 69% | 118 of 165 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 5:29 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 46 of 117 | 39% | 81 of 154 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 37 of 50 | 74% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:15 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 47 of 68 | 69% | 52 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 107 of 154 | 69% | 54 of 97 | 46 of 50 | 7 of 7 | 51 of 93 | 52 of 56 | 4 of 5 |
| Marion Reneau | 46 of 117 | 39% | 20 of 85 | 20 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 84 | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 23 of 36 | 63% | 9 of 22 | 12 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Marion Reneau | 17 of 52 | 32% | 8 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 37 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 37 of 50 | 74% | 15 of 27 | 20 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 24 | 19 of 21 | 4 of 5 |
| Marion Reneau | 13 of 29 | 44% | 5 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 15 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 47 of 68 | 69% | 30 of 48 | 14 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 46 | 21 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Marion Reneau | 16 of 36 | 44% | 7 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington by decision, believing she is the better striker and that the fight will stay on the feet. He notes Pennington's superior competition and Reneau's age (42). He thinks Reneau's only path to victory is a submission, which he doesn't see happening. He is pretty confident and thinks the line could be wider.
Daniel Levi picks Marion Reneau as an underdog, arguing that the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He notes that Raquel Pennington is average and doesn't land many takedowns, while Reneau has decent hands and can win a close decision. Levi believes Reneau has a chance to win a split decision, especially on her 43rd birthday.
Pennington is boring but has experience against better opponents. Reneau is 42 years old and coming off a loss to Jessica Eye, which indicates she is past her prime. Pennington will get the job done, though it may be a dull fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 81 of 129 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:16 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 55 of 95 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 30 of 62 | 48% | 12 of 33 | 9 of 18 | 9 of 11 | 20 of 50 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 38 of 78 | 48% | 9 of 43 | 27 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 46 | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 9 of 17 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 19 of 27 | 70% | 3 of 10 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 15 of 33 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 14 of 37 | 37% | 5 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 26 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.
The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.
The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.
Loopy by finish as I put my clown makeup on