Raphael Assunção vs T.J. Dillashaw

Age 44

Height 5' 5"

Reach 66"

Weight 135 lbs.

Stance Orthodox

UFC SD

Age 40

Height 5' 6"

Reach 67"

Weight 135 lbs.

Stance Orthodox

UFC SD

Career Averages - Raphael Assunção

3.22 SLpM

42.0% Str. Acc.

2.5 SApM

66.0% Str. Def.

1.65 TD Avg

39.0% TD Acc.

78.0% TD Def.

0.2 Sub. Avg

Career Averages - T.J. Dillashaw

5.09 SLpM

41.0% Str. Acc.

3.47 SApM

62.0% Str. Def.

1.56 TD Avg

30.0% TD Acc.

77.0% TD Def.

0.8 Sub. Avg

Raphael Assunção - Fight History

LOSS vs Davey Grant

Technical Submission (inverted triangle choke) R3 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Davey Grant	0	42 of 58	72%	67 of 85	5 of 12	41%	0	0	4:17
Raphael Assunção	1	65 of 138	47%	80 of 154	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:52

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Davey Grant	0	13 of 19	68%	23 of 31	1 of 1	100%	0	1:46
1	Raphael Assunção	0	20 of 39	51%	20 of 39	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Davey Grant	0	16 of 20	80%	27 of 31	2 of 4	50%	0	1:38
2	Raphael Assunção	0	20 of 44	45%	22 of 46	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Davey Grant	0	13 of 19	68%	17 of 23	2 of 7	28%	0	0:53
3	Raphael Assunção	1	25 of 55	45%	38 of 69	0 of 0	---	1	0:52

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Davey Grant	42 of 58	72%	16 of 29	8 of 8	18 of 21	38 of 53	3 of 4	1 of 1
Raphael Assunção	65 of 138	47%	28 of 91	18 of 28	19 of 19	59 of 132	4 of 4	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Davey Grant	13 of 19	68%	4 of 8	2 of 2	7 of 9	12 of 18	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Raphael Assunção	20 of 39	51%	5 of 21	7 of 10	8 of 8	20 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Davey Grant	16 of 20	80%	4 of 8	4 of 4	8 of 8	14 of 17	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Raphael Assunção	20 of 44	45%	6 of 25	4 of 9	10 of 10	18 of 42	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Davey Grant	13 of 19	68%	8 of 13	2 of 2	3 of 4	12 of 18	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Raphael Assunção	25 of 55	45%	17 of 45	7 of 9	1 of 1	21 of 51	2 of 2	2 of 2

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raphael Assuncao vs. Davey Grant
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Grant (-140), Assuncao (+120)

Round 1
One of the more underrated bantamweight greats might be entering the final fight of his storied career, as longtime Brazilian contender Assuncao (28-9, 12-6 UFC) is a few months away from his 41st birthday. He battles .500 UFC fighter Grant (14-6, 5-5 UFC), who posts an 86% finish rate and generally lives up to his “Dangerous” nickname. The match will be officiated by nonsense-allergic referee Keith Peterson, and the two fighters opt to clap hands. Assuncao moves to the center of the cage briefly, and they clash legs early. As Assuncao pushes back, Grant does the same, and fingers rake eyes. Grant offers an apology, and they resume nailing one another on the legs. Assuncao sits down on a booming right hand, wrapping his arm just around the head and not connecting with it. Grant boots his foe in the body, and Assuncao catches it and scores a right hand to put Grant on his back. Assuncao whips an elbow down, and Grant threatens with a triangle choke that the Brazilian sees coming from a mile away. Grant scoots to the wall on his backside, and Assuncao follows him from behind and slides his left arm around the chest in hopes of setting up a rear-naked choke. Assuncao releases the arm so that he can punch Grant in the side of the head repeatedly, all while Grant tries and fails to scramble away. Grant stands back up despite Assuncao’s arm around his neck, and he spins around and shoves his man back to get space. Grant, with distance to strike, does just that with a front kick. Grant goes to the body and tries to swing a left hand over the top, but Assuncao intercepts him with a push kick. Grant scores a right hand after regaining his balance, and he switches stances right into a right hook in response. Assuncao lets go with a few punches on the inside, and he ducks back and blocks a head kick. Grant darts forward with a few punches, sneaking them in and evading the counters. Assuncao measures a right hand, and he signals to Peterson that the two clashed heads. Grant spins with a wheel kick that just misses, and Assuncao ducks a few leaping punches to clinch up and push Grant to the wire. The Brazilian lands a few knees to the thigh before breaking off with a right hand. Grant winds up with a right hook, landing it a second before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 2
The respect is high to start off the second round, as the two gladly high-five to get going again. They trade body kicks, and Assuncao leans back to dodge a spinning wheel kick. Assuncao checks a low kick, and he tries to engage but gets popped with an overhand right. Assuncao chips at the calf of his opponent, while checking those that come back to his lead wheel. Assuncao grabs hold of a single, ducking a punch from his opponent, and he is stood up before securing it. Assuncao does land a right hand on the break, and they reset. The two land lefts at the same time, and Grant goes high with a kick that whizzes past his foe’s face. Grant throws a naked leg kick, and Assuncao counters with an emphatic right hand that makes Grant turn about. Grant steps in to release a spinning back elbow, and Assuncao blocks the worst of it and fires off a low kick. Grant kicks high and low, and the Brazilian swats them away without much concern. Assuncao looses a head kick, and he backs off as Grant walks him down and wings right hooks. Grant lunges forward, and his only strike that lands is a low kick. Grant gets a little too reckless, getting countered on the way in, and he finds himself getting grabbed by the veteran. Grant is warned for grabbing the fence to prevent the takedown, and Assuncao still drags him to his knees despite the foul. Grant fights his way back to his feet, but Assuncao has his arm around Grant’s waist with his legs intertwined for a trip. Grant looks to counter Assuncao with a trip, only to get thrown down once more. Assuncao gets a hook in as he takes the back, and Grant defends himself from anything else until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 3
The last round opens with a glove touch, and then the two throw hands. Both fighters connect with clean overhand rights, and they back off to measure one another. Assuncao beats the Brit to the punch with another right over the top, and Grant tries and fails to reach him back. As Grant advances, Assuncao kicks at his lead leg, which changes as Grant switches stances a few times. Assuncao hops away from a low kick, and he gets caught with a right hand coming in. Grant shucks him aside and strings a few punches together, ending it with a head kick that slides over the top. “Dangerous Davey” suddenly unleashes a torrent of punishment, blasting Assuncao with punches until he knocks Assuncao off-balance. Assuncao wobbles back to the fence, and he shoots for a desperation takedown to keep himself afloat. Grant defends the first try, but Assuncao redoubles his effort and pulls Grant’s ankle out to strip away his footing and put the Brit on his back. Assuncao holds on from an unorthodox half guard, but this posture allows Grant to explode back up. Grant fires off an uppercut that snaps Assuncao’s head back like a Pez dispenser, and he still has the Brazilian hurt. Grant tosses aside takedown entries from the veteran so that he can lay into him with punches, and he hurts Assuncao again in an exchange. Assuncao dives after a takedown, and Grant grabs the fence again to stop it. This time, Peterson has had enough of this nonsense, and he pauses the fight and deducts a point from Grant. Assuncao also loses his position from this, and Grant is thrilled so that he can tee off on the Brazilian some more. Assuncao struggles to stay on his feet from an onslaught of strikes, and Grant spins with a back fist that drills into the side of Assuncao’s head. Assuncao tries desperately to get the fight down, and he falls on top of Grant as the British fighter still tries to scramble.
“Dangerous Davey” wraps his legs around Assuncao’s neck to set up an inverted triangle choke, and the unexpected move is secured in a hurry. Assuncao is nonresponsive from on top after the choke gets tight, and he goes out without Peterson recognizing it immediately. Peterson reaches in to check on the Brazilian, who is completely unconscious, and he determines that Assuncao is out and stops the fight.
As soon as the fight is stopped, Assuncao’s coach, Eric Nicksick, is outraged from Peterson’s point deduction that also resulted in Assuncao losing his position, and it is explained that Grant had sat up and gained a superior position – and cannot be rewarded for gaining that position due to a foul. After Assuncao comes to, he removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, while saying in his quick farewell interview that, “I think my time has come.”

The Official Result
Davey Grant def. Raphael Assuncao R3 4:43 via Technical Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Davey Grant

Angelo picks Davey Grant as the better striker with takedown defense that should hold up against the aging Assunção. He acknowledges Assunção's past success but believes Grant's power and composure will prevail. He notes the line at -160 is likely to move and considers it a safe pick.

line movement comment: expects line to close at -300

"I'm still going the Davey Grant side because I do think he's going to be the better Striker and his takedown defense should hold up."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Davey Grant

Big Brady picks Davey Grant, noting Grant has never looked this good and is in his prime at 37. He expects Grant to march forward with wild looping shots and put Assunção away, as Assunção has been knocked out recently by Garbrandt and Simon. Brady predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Assunção could win via wrestling if Grant struggles on the mat.

win by KO in round 2

"I think Davey Grant is going to March this guy down Wing big looping shots wild shots and I think he puts a sunset out here"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Davey Grant

Cody picks Grant, citing Grant's toughness and ability to push the pace. He notes Assunção's age and recent surgery, but acknowledges Assunção could win a close decision. He calls it a close fight.

"I think I will go with Davey Grant don't feel great about it"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Raphael Assunção

Connor picks Assunção despite concerns about his age and recent performances. He believes Assunção's counter-striking, jab, and wrestling will be key against Grant's wild brawling style. He notes that Grant makes many mistakes and Assunção can take him down and control him, though there's always a risk of Grant landing a lucky shot.

Grant is favorite at -130 to -150; Assunção underdog at +110 to +120. Connor notes the line has moved toward Grant.

"I think I have to pick a Sun Tso too. That's it. I just think it's, I'm worried that he'll get knocked out because Grant's got a weird stuff is going to happen to him more and more."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Davey Grant

I think Grant's power will be too much for Assunção, who has shown durability issues at 40. Assunção is the better technical striker, but Grant throws heavy shots and can end the fight at any moment. Assunção's recent losses have come by knockout, and Grant has the power to exploit that. I expect a knockout within the first 12 minutes.

Grant by KO

"I think that one of those big shots from David Grant are going to get through within the first 12 minutes of this fight and I think that will likely be the end of the night"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Davey Grant

Paul picks Grant but is not confident, noting Assunção's low volume and close fights. He thinks Grant's volume and takedown defense could be key, but calls it a dicey fight and says he won't bet it.

"I'll take David Grant on price because they got 62 and a half which is super low for a grand fight"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Davey Grant

The MMA Guru picks Davey Grant, citing his toughness and finishing ability. He believes Grant can finish Assunção, while Assunção is unlikely to finish Grant. He notes Grant's win over Jonathan Martinez and his competitive fight with Adrian Yanez (which he thought Grant won). He predicts a KO in the second round.

by KO, second round

"I'm gonna go with Davey Grant too dangerous I think he finds a finish by KO second round"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Raphael Assunção

Zane picks Assunção but is hesitant due to his age and recent decline. He notes that Assunção's counter-striking and wrestling should neutralize Grant's wild pressure, but Grant's power and unpredictability make it a risky pick. He mentions that Assunção has seen everything and should be able to handle Grant's style.

"I'm with you. I mean, I would expect these odds to be pretty close. Again, Sun Tso's old and we're both understandably nervous about his chances here."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Victor Henry

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raphael Assunção	0	60 of 91	65%	78 of 110	2 of 5	40%	0	0	4:29
Victor Henry	0	55 of 126	43%	61 of 134	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Raphael Assunção	23 of 32	71%	23 of 32	0 of 2	0%	0:30
1	Victor Henry	22 of 48	45%	25 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Raphael Assunção	17 of 29	58%	35 of 48	1 of 1	100%	2:16
2	Victor Henry	15 of 27	55%	17 of 30	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Raphael Assunção	20 of 30	66%	20 of 30	1 of 2	50%	1:43
3	Victor Henry	18 of 51	35%	19 of 52	0 of 1	0%	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raphael Assunção	60 of 91	65%	40 of 65	8 of 12	12 of 14	42 of 70	15 of 16	3 of 5
Victor Henry	55 of 126	43%	23 of 85	22 of 26	10 of 15	51 of 120	4 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raphael Assunção	23 of 32	71%	13 of 21	4 of 4	6 of 7	17 of 26	6 of 6	0 of 0
1	Victor Henry	22 of 48	45%	10 of 32	11 of 14	1 of 2	20 of 46	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Raphael Assunção	17 of 29	58%	11 of 20	2 of 4	4 of 5	9 of 18	5 of 6	3 of 5
2	Victor Henry	15 of 27	55%	4 of 13	5 of 5	6 of 9	14 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Raphael Assunção	20 of 30	66%	16 of 24	2 of 4	2 of 2	16 of 26	4 of 4	0 of 0
3	Victor Henry	18 of 51	35%	9 of 40	6 of 7	3 of 4	17 of 48	1 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raphael Assuncao vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Henry (-345), Assuncao (+285)

Round 1
At the ripe age of 40, some believe the book on longtime bantamweight contender Assuncao (27-9, 11-6 UFC) is coming towards its conclusion soon. In hopes of snapping a career-long rough patch of four losses in a row, Assuncao will try to show there are still more pages to be written as he takes on the well-traveled Henry (22-5, 1-0 UFC). The 135ers clap hands ahead of their scheduled melee, and referee Kerry Hatley is prepped and ready for what is about to go down. Henry strikes first with a kick to the thigh, and Assuncao responds with the exact same strike. Henry stalks down the UFC vet and lines up a right hand, but he misses the mark. Assuncao is tentative and switching stances, with his own attack largely muted as he seems coiled to wait for a response. Henry rips the body with a kick, and Assuncao catches it, leading to them both trading punches while Henry’s right leg is in the air. Henry pulls his leg out and resets, and he advances while tossing out a front kick. Assuncao sits down on a heavy left hand that graces the chin, and Henry takes note and feints and fakes multiple times. Henry ducks this telegraphed punch and stings his man with a left, and his body kick lands again solidly. Assuncao pushes a front kick up the middle, and he swings a left hook when Henry bears down on him. Henry gets his leg grabbed again, and Assuncao once more cannot set him down, but Assuncao releases it and strings together a solid one-two. Henry blinks it out and continues his constant forward pressure, and they end up clinching him until he can shake off the grip. Assuncao throws with bad intentions, and “La Mangosta” dodges the worst of them and releases a right hand that pops Assuncao in the chops. The Brazilian evades the second such hook, and he snatches Henry and turns him to the wall. Henry shoves him away and gains some space, and he marches on while Assuncao backs himself to the cage on the other side. They trade heavy punches, and a body kick from Henry bounces off the cup. Assuncao shakes his cup and they do not pause, so Henry boots Assuncao upside the head. Assuncao shrugs it off so that he can throw heavy hands, and he fires off alternating punches while Henry is backed up on the fencing. Henry slides out of the way and pushes the action, mixing in body kicks, low kicks and punches. As Henry gets fancy with a crescent kick, Assuncao snipes him with a right hand. Henry wades forward to engage, but the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
The bantamweights take the center of the cage and begin trading low kicks, and as if they both got the same memo, they switch to front kicks. Henry spins with a back kick, and Assuncao does the same, while neither lands flush. Henry pressures his man while spamming low kicks, softening the Brazilian up and dodging the right hook that wings by him. Assuncao connects with that heavy blow when he tries again, and Henry shakes his head and spins with a wheel kick. Assuncao capitalizes on this and jumps on top to take top position. Henry defends with an armbar setup off his back, but the veteran savvy of Assuncao pays off and allows him to move through it and keep striking. After a handful of powerful fists land on the dome, Henry explodes and gets back to his feet, only to be met with a head kick. Henry shrugs it off and gets out of the close range so he can initiate the offense. Henry swipes out with a left hand, and some swelling has developed on both cheeks of Assuncao. The bantamweights throw hammers at one another in close range, and Henry tries for a kick only for it to get caught. Henry tries to slug it out, but Assuncao lines up several clean right hands to knock Henry from one side of the cage to the other, all while hopping away. Assuncao uses this awkward situation to hit a takedown, and he finds himself in early submission danger. Assuncao punches his way out of it to open a cut on the left side of Henry’s face, but Henry doggedly pursues an armbar. The longtime contender fights off various submission setups including a shoulder lock and a toe hold, and Henry works his way to his feet right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 3
A touch of gloves commences the final frame, and Henry walks his opponent down and gets slugged in the face with a right hand. Henry tries to make him may, but he gets clubbed with a left hook. Assuncao is connecting with clean, heavy counters, and Henry is taking a beating but still coming forward. Henry has kicks blocked and checked, but he slings a right hand that wobbles Assuncao. Henry strings several punches together, and Assuncao fires back with reckless abandon and far more power. Assuncao scoops up a leg and dumps Henry to the mat, and like the last two rounds, Henry threatens with a submission when landing. Assuncao turns through the possible triangle, but this allows Henry to stand back up. Henry walks Assuncao down and gets punched in the face for his effort, but not before landing a few shots of his own. Henry lashes out with an elbow, and Assuncao backs off and gives him a thumbs-up for the effective blow. Assuncao catches a body kick and drives Henry from wall to wall, but this time, there is no takedown to be had. Henry springs away and walks into a crisp right hand, and Henry shakes it out and eats a follow-up right hand. Henry slides out of the way from a power punch, but they are not one-and-done for the grizzled veteran. Henry absorbs a pair of knees up the middle as they get too close, and he resets and rushes forward with a right hand and a body kick. Assuncao clinches him up, and Henry attempts to dump him down but settles to release him and line up a solid one-two. Assuncao dives down for a double, where he switches to a single and picks Henry’s right leg up but cannot get the leverage to ground him. Henry tries to sneak in short shots on the inside while Assuncao is still hanging on to the leg, and he manages to keep his balance with his back against the wire. Henry sets it down with 10 seconds to spare, and Assuncao cracks him with a left hand. Henry races after him in hopes of one last ditch effort, but the bell rings to conclude the close match before he can reach his aging but very game opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)

The Official Result
Raphael Assuncao def. Victor Henry via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Angelo picks Victor Henry, citing his impressive UFC debut over Honey Barcelos where he landed 222 strikes and defended six takedowns. He notes that Assunção is on a four-fight losing streak and older, but warns that the line (3-to-1) is wide and that Honey Barcelos looked bad in that fight. He thinks Victor wins but cautions that the odds may be too high for a confident bet.

Line is wide; premium members may have bets involving Henry

"I like Victor in this spot with that being said this line is absolutely why it's a very wide line"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Big Brady confidently picks Victor Henry to win by decision. He notes that Assunção is 40, on a four-fight skid, and has very low volume, while Henry throws a ton of strikes (352 in his last fight). He believes Henry's pressure and output will overwhelm Assunção, and that Assunção's only path is wrestling, but Henry's takedown defense looked good against Barcelos. Brady sees a potential late finish but calls it a decision.

"this should be Victor Henry all day and it's not even close"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Victor Henry confidently, citing his impressive performance against Ronnie Barcelos where he landed 180 significant strikes. He notes Henry has volume, wrestling, and has fought tough competition in Japan. He thinks Assunção is old, slow, and has declined, and Henry should win by decision or TKO.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (mentioned by Paul, Cody agrees)

"I'm picking Victor Victor Henry but I got minus 400 it's like how often does he win this fight like eight out of 10 times."

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Henry is younger and in his prime, while Assunção is 40 and on a four-fight losing streak, with three finishes. Henry's pressure and volume should overwhelm Assunção, who may have declined durability. Henry is not a big power puncher, so a decision is likely. The host recommends parlaying Henry or taking the decision prop at +120.

Victor Henry by decision +120

"I will be in on uh the Victor Henry side here minus 330 sure you could possibly parlay it or even if you just want to go diving into the the the props here via decision is sitting at plus …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul is confident in Victor Henry, noting his extensive career in Japan with wins over multiple UFC veterans. He thinks Henry's volume and wrestling will be too much for Assunção, who is 40 years old and has been knocked out in his last two fights. He picks Henry by decision but notes a TKO is possible.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (he argues no one has landed over 65 on Assunção in years)

"I got Victor Henry all day... he's got the volume he's got the wrestling."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as a no-brainer, citing his impressive short-notice win over Hani Barcelos. He notes that Assunção has shown a chin change after KO losses and may be hesitant. He believes Henry's pressure, size, and reach advantage will break Assunção over three rounds, winning by unanimous decision 30-27.

prediction: unanimous decision 30-27

"no brainer Victor Henry in my opinion"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Ricky Simón

KO/TKO R2 2:14 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021

LOSS vs Cody Garbrandt

KO (punch) R2 4:59 · UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 06, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt	0	17 of 52	32%	17 of 52	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Raphael Assunção	1	19 of 43	44%	20 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Cody Garbrandt	0	9 of 23	39%	9 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Raphael Assunção	0	8 of 20	40%	8 of 20	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Cody Garbrandt	0	8 of 29	27%	8 of 29	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Raphael Assunção	1	11 of 23	47%	12 of 25	0 of 0	---	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Cody Garbrandt	17 of 52	32%	4 of 25	2 of 11	11 of 16	17 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
Raphael Assunção	19 of 43	44%	7 of 24	2 of 5	10 of 14	19 of 43	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Cody Garbrandt	9 of 23	39%	2 of 11	0 of 4	7 of 8	9 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Raphael Assunção	8 of 20	40%	1 of 10	0 of 2	7 of 8	8 of 20	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cody Garbrandt	8 of 29	27%	2 of 14	2 of 7	4 of 8	8 of 29	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Raphael Assunção	11 of 23	47%	6 of 14	2 of 3	3 of 6	11 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Garbrandt vs. Raphael Assuncao

Round 1
In the co-main event, former bantamweight king Garbrandt (11-3, 6-3 UFC) looks to right the ship after a trio of bad knockout losses against perennial contender Assuncao (27-7, 11-4 UFC). Our referee is Keith Peterson, but surprisingly there is some nonsense in this bout as it takes place in the co-headliner spot despite the two men combining for five straight losses. The two do not touch gloves, and come out tentatively until Garbrandt whips a low kick to start things off. Garbrandt goes for one more, and the Brazilian takes one on the inside as he tries to close the distance. Assuncao digs to the body with a kick, and gets countered over the top with a right hand. Assuncao pursues his own leg kick, and Garbrandt replies with one that forces Assuncao to switch stances briefly. Just over a minute in, Assuncao may have already sustained some damage to that lead leg. Both men come up short on head kick attempts, and Garbrandt pauses before spinning with a back kick. Assuncao emulates him with a similar kick that likewise comes up shy of the mark, and Garbrandt comes back at him with a slapping kick to the body. Another low kick from Garbrandt forces a stance switch out of his opponent, and Assuncao returns to orthodox where he fires up a high kick and falls over after missing. Garbrandt stings him with a right hand, all while avoiding the counterattack flying his direction. When Assuncao tries to let fly a high kick, Garbrandt blocks it and blasts him on the opposite leg on the inside. Assuncao stands before him while waving his hands, and Garbrandt is content to feint and fake before sticking that lead leg with a kick that has turned Assuncao’s lead leg red. As Assuncao rushes forward, Garbrandt kicks his other leg out from beneath him. Garbrandt slips in, lands a right, and eats a counter right on the way out. When Assuncao attacks the lead leg with a kick, he nearly stumbles, but recovers before Garbrandt makes him pay. Assuncao is just barely able to duck when Garbrandt wins a counter left hook as the Brazilian kicks the front leg. As Assuncao whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, Garbrandt moves around the cage until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt

Round 2
Garbrandt starts up with a sweep kick reminiscent of something one would see in “Mortal Kombat,” and Assuncao chases him down to the ground but cannot capitalize as he has him down. Garbrandt stings him with few punches, and Assuncao does not have the speed to catch the former champ coming out. A low kick from Garbrandt forces Assuncao to hide the damaged leg, which is starting to swell and glow red. When he does, Garbrandt goes to the body instead with a kick. Assuncao is well off the mark when he plants his hand on the floor to try a spinning kick, and Garbrandt smiles and may be trash talking him. Assuncao unloads a right hand, and Garbrandt rolls with it to avoid the brunt of it. They trade leg kicks from a distance, and Assuncao paws out his right hand to find his distance as Garbrandt slaps it away. Assuncao tries to score a high kick, and Garbrandt runs towards him into a short-lived brawl. Garbrandt thinks about a takedown, but bails on it to get his distance. The Brazilian comes up short of the mark with a spinning kick, but the left hand that follows connects well. Garbrandt replies in kind with a right hand that drops Assuncao, and Garbrandt marks a 1 on an invisible scoreboard. Assuncao hops back up and assures his opponent it was a slip, and Garbrandt practically rolls his eyes at him. Assuncao comes in to finish the round with a flurry, and Garbrandt ducks and unleashes a lightning-quick right hand from the underworld that obliterates Assuncao. The Brazilian faceplants on the canvas as we hear the horn sound, and what an insane knockout! Unbelievable! Garbrandt is back in such an incredible fashion, and when Assuncao tries to get back to his feet he nearly falls off his stool. Wow.

The Official Result
Cody Garbrandt def. Raphael Assuncao R2 4:59 via KO (Punch)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Raphael Assunção

Big Brady picks Raphael Assunção by second-round knockout, citing Garbrandt's poor chin and recent knockout losses. He thinks Assunção has underrated power and will catch Garbrandt. He acknowledges Garbrandt is the better striker but cannot trust his chin. He notes Assunção is the underdog and sees value.

Assunção by second-round knockout; value on Assunção at +125

"I'm gonna pick us out so I think he's going to you know keep this fight very close I think it's when we actually be a very close fight I do actually give the the lean gar Brant and the …"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Raphael Assunção

Daniel believes Assunção's counter-striking style is a bad matchup for Garbrandt, who tends to get reckless when hurt. He notes Garbrandt's chin is compromised and that Munoz chopped his legs with calf kicks, which may have led to his desperate rush. He sees Assunção winning a close decision or possibly catching Garbrandt with counters, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Assunção by decision, leg kicks

"I'm gonna go with ATL zone Raphael assumes how to get this one done"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Cody Garbrandt

Cody Garbrandt has heavy hands and great footwork, and working with Mark Henry should improve his game planning. Raphael Assunção is a counter-striker with leg kicks, but Garbrandt's power and movement can overcome that. Garbrandt's chin has been questioned, but if he fights disciplined, he can land a knockout. The under 2.5 rounds is also a good play.

Under 2.5 rounds (+150); Cody Garbrandt by KO in round 2

"i like cody garbrandt i'm going to take him to win by by second round ko"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (8 days before fight)

Raphael Assunção

The MMA Guru picks Raphael Assunção over Cody Garbrandt. He believes Garbrandt has an emotional issue that can't be trained out, leading to him getting KO'd again. He notes that Assunção has been training consistently and will crack Garbrandt with a big shot, finishing him in the first round by KO. He admits he previously picked Garbrandt but is done betting on him.

first round KO

"I'm picking by a son Sal I was gonna pick pedro muñoz to win by first round KO against God rang in his last fight I went with gar Brandt anyway hoping he would change his ways I'm done betting …"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen	0	45 of 81	55%	65 of 103	4 of 6	66%	0	0	2:10
Raphael Assunção	0	62 of 116	53%	78 of 135	0 of 1	0%	0	1	3:46

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Cory Sandhagen	16 of 34	47%	17 of 35	0 of 0	---	0	0:06
1	Raphael Assunção	25 of 52	48%	30 of 58	0 of 1	0%	0	0:35
2	Cory Sandhagen	13 of 19	68%	20 of 28	1 of 2	50%	0	0:57
2	Raphael Assunção	14 of 20	70%	22 of 29	0 of 0	---	1	2:53
3	Cory Sandhagen	16 of 28	57%	28 of 40	3 of 4	75%	0	1:07
3	Raphael Assunção	23 of 44	52%	26 of 48	0 of 0	---	0	0:18

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Cory Sandhagen	45 of 81	55%	15 of 50	20 of 20	10 of 11	30 of 65	12 of 13	3 of 3
Raphael Assunção	62 of 116	53%	23 of 67	16 of 21	23 of 28	55 of 108	3 of 4	4 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Cory Sandhagen	16 of 34	47%	3 of 20	9 of 9	4 of 5	11 of 29	5 of 5	0 of 0
1	Raphael Assunção	25 of 52	48%	8 of 31	6 of 8	11 of 13	25 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cory Sandhagen	13 of 19	68%	4 of 10	6 of 6	3 of 3	6 of 11	4 of 5	3 of 3
2	Raphael Assunção	14 of 20	70%	2 of 7	6 of 6	6 of 7	8 of 13	2 of 3	4 of 4
3	Cory Sandhagen	16 of 28	57%	8 of 20	5 of 5	3 of 3	13 of 25	3 of 3	0 of 0
3	Raphael Assunção	23 of 44	52%	13 of 29	4 of 7	6 of 8	22 of 43	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raphael Assuncao vs. Cory Sandhagen

Round 1
Next up at bantamweight, Sandhagen (11-1, 4-0 UFC) looks to continue his meteoric rise when he faces perennial contender Assuncao (27-6, 11-3 UFC). The referee for this
dark horse "Fight of the Night" candidate
is Frank Trigg. We begin the fight with a few kicks traded by each man. Sandhagen tries to use his reach to keep Assuncao backed off, and after a few strikes from Sandhagen, Assuncao fires back with a salvo and just misses. Sandhagen advances, and Assuncao counters with a solid left hand. Assuncao scores a body kick, as Sandhagen maintains the pressure on the Brazilian. Leading with a pawing left hand, Sandhagen ducks another right-left hook counter from Assuncao. Sandhagen scores a one-two that backs away Assuncao, as Assuncao shakes his head. Sandhagen cracks Assuncao with a big left hand to the body, and then slaps Assuncao's lead leg with a kick. With his back against the fence, Assuncao tries for a push kick to keep some distance, but the American presses relentlessly. When they break, Assuncao tries to capitalize on it with a left hand but it is blocked in time. Sandhagen stalks down Assuncao and lands a right hand, and then leaps in the air to partially score a flying knee on the chin of the Brazilian. The opening round comes to a close with a few half-hearted leg kicks from Sandhagen.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Patrick Auger scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
The round immediately begins with a couple body kicks from Sandhagen, who starts right out with more of the pressure that likely won him the opening stanza. Sandhagen picks at Assuncao with distance while dodging and weaving the fierce counterpunches from the Brazilian. Pulling into a clinch, Sandhagen lifts up a few knees and they break with Assuncao swinging at nothing but air. A body kick from Sandhagen is caught, and Assuncao grabs Sandhagen and takes his back. Sandhagen tries to spin out and eventually does so, all while passing to half guard. In a scramble, Sandhagen unexpectedly takes Assuncao's back while trying to isolate Assuncao's left arm. Assuncao evades the attempt and the two roll about until Assuncao grabs Sandhagen's back again. Assuncao gets the fight to the canvas once more as Sandhagen pulls for a leg lock. Assuncao turns out of it and takes a strange position with Sandhagen's left arm and leg wrapped up. Sandhagen gets out of it and takes the full guard position before standing up. Assuncao tries to take the leg of Sandhagen, but the American pulls Assuncao back down in a very intriguing chess match full of positions that might not have official names. The second round ends with Sandhagen elbowing Assuncao in the posterior -- you read that correctly -- due to the nature of their positions.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Patrick Auger scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
The final round starts with some leg kicks from Sandhagen, who continues to evade any significant counters from Assuncao. Sandhagen digs with a left hand to the body, and blocks a counter right hand from the Ascension MMA product. Sandhagen dodges a kick, lands a straight left, and then avoids the counter perfectly. Sandhagen pushes the pressure on Assuncao such that Assuncao is continually backed against the cage, and Assuncao tries to get out of it by vying for a takedown. He gets the American down momentarily, but Sandhagen gets up and continues to pressure Assuncao. Trading leg kicks, Assuncao is forced to back away until he pushes forward to try and take Sandhagen down again. Wrapping his arms around Sandhagen's waist, Assuncao slams Sandhagen down but Sandhagen springs right back up. Sandhagen gets the separation and advances with a jab and a flying knee that just misses. They two go back down to the floor, before getting up again. With both landing a few looping strikes in the waning seconds, the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Sandhagen)
Patrick Auger scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (30-27 Sandhagen)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Sandhagen)

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Raphael Assuncao via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

LOSS vs Marlon Moraes

Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marlon Moraes	0	2 of 12	16%	3 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Raphael Assunção	1	10 of 23	43%	12 of 25	0 of 0	---	1	0	1:15

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Marlon Moraes	0	2 of 12	16%	3 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Raphael Assunção	1	10 of 23	43%	12 of 25	0 of 0	---	1	0	1:15

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marlon Moraes	2 of 12	16%	1 of 10	0 of 0	1 of 2	2 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
Raphael Assunção	10 of 23	43%	8 of 17	0 of 2	2 of 4	7 of 18	0 of 0	3 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marlon Moraes	2 of 12	16%	1 of 10	0 of 0	1 of 2	2 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Raphael Assunção	10 of 23	43%	8 of 17	0 of 2	2 of 4	7 of 18	0 of 0	3 of 5

WIN vs Rob Font

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raphael Assunção	0	54 of 120	45%	93 of 161	2 of 2	100%	0	0	4:31
Rob Font	0	20 of 122	16%	20 of 122	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Raphael Assunção	14 of 41	34%	14 of 41	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Rob Font	10 of 61	16%	10 of 61	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Raphael Assunção	15 of 34	44%	34 of 55	1 of 1	100%	2:15
2	Rob Font	5 of 25	20%	5 of 25	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Raphael Assunção	25 of 45	55%	45 of 65	1 of 1	100%	2:16
3	Rob Font	5 of 36	13%	5 of 36	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raphael Assunção	54 of 120	45%	41 of 98	4 of 7	9 of 15	36 of 95	1 of 1	17 of 24
Rob Font	20 of 122	16%	12 of 105	6 of 10	2 of 7	20 of 122	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raphael Assunção	14 of 41	34%	7 of 29	1 of 2	6 of 10	13 of 40	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Rob Font	10 of 61	16%	5 of 47	3 of 7	2 of 7	10 of 61	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Raphael Assunção	15 of 34	44%	13 of 29	1 of 2	1 of 3	7 of 24	0 of 0	8 of 10
2	Rob Font	5 of 25	20%	3 of 23	2 of 2	0 of 0	5 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raphael Assunção	25 of 45	55%	21 of 40	2 of 3	2 of 2	16 of 31	0 of 0	9 of 14
3	Rob Font	5 of 36	13%	4 of 35	1 of 1	0 of 0	5 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0

WIN vs Matthew Lopez

KO (punch) R3 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raphael Assunção	1	46 of 154	29%	48 of 156	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01
Matthew Lopez	0	34 of 93	36%	36 of 95	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:28

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Raphael Assunção	0	18 of 73	24%	19 of 74	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Matthew Lopez	0	18 of 43	41%	18 of 43	1 of 1	100%	0:17
2	Raphael Assunção	0	20 of 55	36%	21 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Matthew Lopez	0	11 of 39	28%	13 of 41	0 of 2	0%	0:11
3	Raphael Assunção	1	8 of 26	30%	8 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:01
3	Matthew Lopez	0	5 of 11	45%	5 of 11	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raphael Assunção	46 of 154	29%	24 of 123	6 of 12	16 of 19	45 of 153	1 of 1	0 of 0
Matthew Lopez	34 of 93	36%	16 of 68	12 of 19	6 of 6	34 of 93	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raphael Assunção	18 of 73	24%	10 of 61	2 of 5	6 of 7	17 of 72	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Matthew Lopez	18 of 43	41%	8 of 31	6 of 8	4 of 4	18 of 43	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Raphael Assunção	20 of 55	36%	11 of 43	3 of 5	6 of 7	20 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Matthew Lopez	11 of 39	28%	6 of 31	3 of 6	2 of 2	11 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raphael Assunção	8 of 26	30%	3 of 19	1 of 2	4 of 5	8 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Matthew Lopez	5 of 11	45%	2 of 6	3 of 5	0 of 0	5 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0

View all 19 fights

T.J. Dillashaw - Fight History

LOSS vs Aljamain Sterling

TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	72 of 93	77%	148 of 181	5 of 8	62%	2	0	7:06
T.J. Dillashaw	0	8 of 26	30%	13 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	30 of 45	66%	80 of 103	3 of 4	75%	1	4:20
1	T.J. Dillashaw	3 of 11	27%	8 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	42 of 48	87%	68 of 78	2 of 4	50%	1	2:46
2	T.J. Dillashaw	5 of 15	33%	5 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	72 of 93	77%	56 of 75	13 of 15	3 of 3	17 of 30	2 of 4	53 of 59
T.J. Dillashaw	8 of 26	30%	3 of 20	2 of 2	3 of 4	8 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	30 of 45	66%	24 of 38	5 of 6	1 of 1	8 of 15	1 of 3	21 of 27
1	T.J. Dillashaw	3 of 11	27%	0 of 8	1 of 1	2 of 2	3 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	42 of 48	87%	32 of 37	8 of 9	2 of 2	9 of 15	1 of 1	32 of 32
2	T.J. Dillashaw	5 of 15	33%	3 of 12	1 of 1	1 of 2	5 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-175), Dillashaw (+150)

Round 1
The co-main event kicks off under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. They exchange kicks as Sterling changes stances. Tons of movement early on, and Sterling catches a kick which he uses to spin Dillashaw to the canvas. Sterling takes Dillashaw’s back for a moment, but they spin through and Sterling lands in half guard. Dillashaw appears to be in pain from something. Sterling moves to mount, then locks up a body triangle from the top. Dillashaw’s left arm or shoulder may be the problem. Sterling lands a couple of huge right hands from the top, then takes Dillashaw’s back. Sterling working for a choke, then gives it up to move back to mount. Dillashaw pops back up and scrambles, but Sterling is all over him, regaining back control. Under two minutes left and Sterling has Dillashaw in a body triangle from back mount. Sterling pelts the ex-champ with punches that curl around the front of Dillashaw’s face. Dillashaw escapes to his feet and his left arm is clearly compromised. Sterling drops for a takedown with 30 seconds left, driving Dillashaw to the fence. He peels Dillashaw away from the fence and dumps him on the canvas. Dillashaw pops back up right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-8 Sterling

Round 2
Dillashaw’s shoulder is popped back in between rounds, and they’re good to go for another round at least. Sterling throws low kicks to open the round as Dillashaw returns fire, mostly with his right hand. Sterling drops levels for an easy double-leg takedown in the middle of the Octagon. Sterling sets up in Dillashaw’s half-guard. Sterling tries to move to side control, dropping elbows as he does. Dillashaw drives back to his feet, but is ensnared in a D’Arce choke as he does. Dillashaw escapes the hold, and his arm is once again all the way out of the socket, hanging limply at his side. The champ seems unsure of what to do, but takes Dillashaw down again. Sterling moves to mount. Dillashaw turns his back and goes belly-down. Sterling smashes Dillashaw with a couple of brutal elbows, then several punches, and Dillashaw is doing next to nothing to defend himself. Ref Goddard steps in and mercifully calls a stop to the mauling.

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. T.J. Dillashaw R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw, surprised he is an underdog. He questions how Sterling can take Dillashaw down, noting only two people have ever done it. He praises Dillashaw's pace, pressure, and toughness, referencing the Sandhagen fight. He has a moneyline bet on Dillashaw at +150.

Moneyline bet at +150

"I'm going TJ Dillashaw I got that moneyline bet at plus 150"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Big Brady picks Dillashaw to win by decision, despite concerns about his age (36) and decline. He believes stylistically it's a great matchup for Dillashaw: his takedown defense (86%) and get-up game are elite, and Sterling has only 30% takedown accuracy. He expects Dillashaw's pressure and cardio to overwhelm Sterling in the later rounds, winning the third, fourth, and fifth.

"I'm going to take dylasha to win by decision I think early on super competitive I think Sterling can even take a round or two but I think as the fight goes on I think the pressure is going to …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Cody thinks Sterling is the superior fighter overall but believes Dillashaw is live as an underdog. He notes Sterling's cardio fades in later rounds, while Dillashaw historically excels in rounds 4 and 5. Cody points out that Dillashaw has excellent takedown defense and wrestling, and that Sterling's takedowns may not hold him down. He sees Dillashaw winning the striking exchanges and possibly capitalizing on Sterling's fatigue.

"I just kind of feel like for an underdog plus money is not taking anything away for algebra and Sterling it's just like I think he's live in this spot to get upset so uh sign me up for some …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Connor picks Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw's wrestling and grappling defense will neutralize Sterling's best weapons. He notes that Dillashaw has never been held down or submitted, and that Sterling tends to gas when he can't impose his grappling. He also points out that Dillashaw's pressure and ability to take easy targets will wear on Sterling, similar to how Munoz gave him trouble.

"I'm gonna pick TJ Dillashaw. It feels too right for the fights he wins and the fight Sterling loses."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling to defend his belt, but is not confident. He respects Sterling's back control and jiu-jitsu, noting that even Petr Yan couldn't escape his backpack. However, he questions Sterling's durability and cardio, thinking he can wilt in later rounds. Levi also notes that T.J. Dillashaw is 37, coming off an ACL tear and a long layoff, and is no longer in his prime. He thinks Sterling's youth and confidence in his strengths give him the edge, but he has no bet on this fight because he doesn't have a strong read.

"I'm a lean algeman to to make it happen to steal some of these rounds but not confident I don't have a bet on this fight for a reason."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Dillashaw has solid wrestling and takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He is the better striker and can counter Sterling's entries. Sterling's best path is grappling, but Dillashaw's movement and pivots make him hard to catch. Dillashaw by decision at +300 or moneyline at +150 are both appealing.

Dillashaw by decision at +300; Dillashaw by KO at +500

"I love the underdog price here on the snake TJ Dillashaw I think that he has the perfect stylistic approach here to deal with al-jamin Sterling"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Paul struggles to get to Sterling at -175, acknowledging Sterling's talent but questioning whether his grappling will work on Dillashaw. He notes Dillashaw's takedown defense historically, and that Sterling may not be able to hold him down. Paul mentions Dillashaw's strong later rounds and volume striking. He is picking Dillashaw for the show but is unsure about betting, possibly looking at round props.

round 4 or round 5 props (maybe)

"for the purpose of the show I'm picking delish uh don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over T.J. Dillashaw by submission. He argues Sterling is underrated, citing his wins over Yan, Sandhagen, and Munoz. He believes Dillashaw gives up his back and that Sterling will hurt him on the feet before securing a rear-naked choke in the second round.

rear naked choke late second round

"I'm gonna go with Al Jermaine Sterling over TJ Dillashaw"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Zane also picks Dillashaw, citing that Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling due to his ability to stuff takedowns and avoid submission. He notes that Sterling's path to victory is narrow and relies on early chaos, but Dillashaw's experience and durability make him the safer bet. He also mentions that Dillashaw's wrestling-heavy approach against Sandhagen shows he can adapt.

"I gotta pick Dillashaw. It's weird because I would pick Yan over Dillashaw, but I think Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Cory Sandhagen

Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw	0	128 of 281	45%	171 of 331	0 of 1	0%	1	0	0:00
Cory Sandhagen	0	110 of 268	41%	169 of 332	2 of 19	10%	0	0	8:22

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	T.J. Dillashaw	15 of 25	60%	28 of 42	0 of 0	---	1	0:00
1	Cory Sandhagen	13 of 26	50%	36 of 54	1 of 5	20%	0	2:24
2	T.J. Dillashaw	26 of 55	47%	37 of 69	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Cory Sandhagen	12 of 41	29%	20 of 49	0 of 3	0%	0	1:18
3	T.J. Dillashaw	23 of 53	43%	36 of 66	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
3	Cory Sandhagen	26 of 52	50%	34 of 60	1 of 3	33%	0	2:00
4	T.J. Dillashaw	26 of 65	40%	28 of 67	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
4	Cory Sandhagen	19 of 61	31%	35 of 77	0 of 5	0%	0	1:41
5	T.J. Dillashaw	38 of 83	45%	42 of 87	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
5	Cory Sandhagen	40 of 88	45%	44 of 92	0 of 3	0%	0	0:59

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
T.J. Dillashaw	128 of 281	45%	110 of 258	10 of 14	8 of 9	126 of 278	2 of 2	0 of 1
Cory Sandhagen	110 of 268	41%	59 of 208	10 of 14	41 of 46	98 of 245	8 of 14	4 of 9

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	T.J. Dillashaw	15 of 25	60%	9 of 16	1 of 3	5 of 6	15 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 1
1	Cory Sandhagen	13 of 26	50%	9 of 20	1 of 2	3 of 4	8 of 17	1 of 1	4 of 8
2	T.J. Dillashaw	26 of 55	47%	22 of 51	2 of 2	2 of 2	26 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cory Sandhagen	12 of 41	29%	6 of 34	2 of 3	4 of 4	10 of 38	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	T.J. Dillashaw	23 of 53	43%	20 of 50	2 of 2	1 of 1	22 of 52	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Cory Sandhagen	26 of 52	50%	12 of 36	2 of 3	12 of 13	23 of 45	3 of 6	0 of 1
4	T.J. Dillashaw	26 of 65	40%	25 of 63	1 of 2	0 of 0	26 of 65	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Cory Sandhagen	19 of 61	31%	7 of 46	0 of 0	12 of 15	19 of 60	0 of 1	0 of 0
5	T.J. Dillashaw	38 of 83	45%	34 of 78	4 of 5	0 of 0	37 of 82	1 of 1	0 of 0
5	Cory Sandhagen	40 of 88	45%	25 of 72	5 of 6	10 of 10	38 of 85	2 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cory Sandhagen vs. T.J. Dillashaw

Round 1
For both men in this bantamweight headliner, a title shot may be hanging in the balance. For Sandhagen (14-2, 7-1 UFC), he stares at a possible rematch against current champ Aljamain Sterling and a path to greatness. A far different story looms for Dillashaw (16-4, 12-4 UFC), who will be appearing for the first time since an ill-fated trip to flyweight, where he came up short at becoming a two-division champ. Since January 2019, Dillashaw has been on the shelf after testing positive for EPO, while Sandhagen has roared out of the gate with four wins surrounding a single loss. To the victor belong the spoils; the contender and the ex-champ touch gloves in front of customary headlining ref Herb Dean, and it’s fight time. Dillashaw rushes forward, straight into a leg kick that comes at him for the first strike of the fight. Dillashaw sprints forward and throws a right hand, and a head kick gets caught. He connects with a right hand, and Sandhagen fires right back at him with a head kick and a leg kick. Sandhagen hurts Dillashaw with a punch, and he leaps forward with a flying knee. Dillashaw knows it is coming, and he lifts Sandhagen in the air and puts him down. Sandhagen snatches up an inverted triangle choke, and Dillashaw gets away with a shorts grab to find himself some space and get his neck free. He sits up to land a few punches, fights off a leglock attempt, and sees Sandhagen explode back to his feet. The former champ is tight on his opponent, pressing Sandhagen into the cage and landing a few hard knees to the thigh. Sandhagen turns him about and frees himself, where he smacks Dillashaw with a right hand. Dillashaw charges in for a takedown, and both fall to the ground in an odd position until they stand back up. Dillashaw leaps forward with a left hand that snaps the head back, and Sandhagen comes back at him with a body shot and a left over the top. Dillashaw kicks his leg out from beneath his foe quickly, and Sandhagen makes Dillashaw flinch with a pump-fake. Dillashaw kicks at his foe, and Sandhagen is ready with a left hand counter. Dillashaw pressures his foe into the fence, with a takedown attempt before Sandhagen can kick him. Dillashaw tosses Sandhagen to the ground, and Sandhagen rolls through and gets off a few hammerfists from below. Dillashaw slams a single elbow home, and Sandhagen threatens with a leg lock low on the ankle more for position than submission. Dillashaw jumps back down, and he is holding on to the fence to get leverage and land strikes. Dillashaw keeps grabbing the fence to maintain this top position, and he sits up and drills Sandhagen with a few punches before Sandhagen scrambles. “Sandman” gets back to his feet, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dillashaw
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Dillashaw
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dillashaw

Round 2
Between rounds, the replays show that Dillashaw torqued his left knee when Sandhagen had a leglock, and he complains to his corner that he believes something popped. He still can continue, and he rushes out to begin the round by pursuing a takedown against the fence. Sandhagen breaks free, catches a kick and throws his man down. Dillashaw may be compromised on his rear leg, and he takes a few stiff punches across the bow while trying to put weight on it. Dillashaw comes in to attack, and Sandhagen is able to smoothly dodge the punches but he takes a leg kick on the way out. Sandhagen paws out several punches, and the two trade heavy, loud leg kicks. Sandhagen just grazes the chin with an uppercut, and he slips out of the way when Dillashaw aims a big right hand at him. Sandhagen sits down on a left hand, lifting Dillashaw off the ground and hurting him badly. Dillashaw shoots for a desperation takedown, but Sandhagen defends it and smashes his nose with a left hand. The nose of the former champ is bloodied and busted, and Sandhagen cracks him with a right hand to slash open a cut on Dillashaw’s right eyebrow close to the bridge of his nose. The placement of the cut is bad, but the doctor clears him to continue. Sandhagen picks away at him from range, until he leaps forward with a knee and follows it with several punches and an elbow. Dillashaw tries to fire back at him but he hits air, allowing Sandhagen to nail him with a spinning elbow. Dillashaw closes the distance, but Sandhagen tags the cut with a few punches before going up high with a kick. Dillashaw looks to explode with a punch and a takedown attempt, and he circles around to hold on to Sandhagen from behind. He wrenches Sandhagen down to the ground, but he cannot keep him there for long. Dillashaw doggedly pursues the takedown, but all he can muster is a few knees to the thigh right before the break. Sandhagen sneaks in one last elbow right at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
The bantamweights touch gloves to begin the round, and Dillashaw’s cut is cleared and closed up for now. Sandhagen plays possum as he moves away from a few punches, and he times a back elbow that clips Dillashaw on the chin. A few long left hands from Sandhagen open the cut back up again, and Dillashaw quickly wipes at it. Sandhagen plants the fall of his foot on Dillashaw’s chest, and he lands a punch and a spinning back elbow in rapid succession. Dillashaw’s chin stays together, and he crashes in to attack a double leg takedown. Sandhagen turns to defend, and he takes a few short knees to the thigh but gets Dillashaw’s attention with an elbow. Dillashaw has to back off as the blood continues to flow in his eye, and Sandhagen targets the blind spot with several more punches. Dillashaw charges like a bull, and the matador of Sandhagen dances out of harm’s way and stings Dillashaw a few times with accurate strikes. Dillashaw goes low with several kicks, and his foe slips a punch and scores a solid right hand. Sandhagen spins with a punch into a hook kick, and Dillashaw catches him in the air and plants him down on the canvas. Sandhagen rolls through without taking damage to stand back up, and he breaks free and stands before his opponent with his hands down. Sandhagen walks forward, unconcerned with the power, and he reaches Dillashaw with several punches while evading the responses. Dillashaw sits down on leg kicks, and Sandhagen pulls his leg back and finally gives him one back. Sandhagen splits the guard with a right hand, and Dillashaw comes out firing with two punches before pursuing a takedown. Sandhagen steps in with a knee when he breaks off, and shoots in for a takedown of his own but is easily stuffed. Dillashaw spins around to take his back, and the two walk to the fence in the familiar position of Dillashaw holding him from behind. Sandhagen pops Dillashaw with a no-look elbow, and the two land heavy blows right before the bell. When the horn sounds, Sandhagen scores a big right hand. Dillashaw protests, but the fight goes on to the championship rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dillashaw
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dillashaw

Round 4
The round begins with several leg kicks from the former champ, who is fired up and ready to throw caution to the wind. He gets Sandhagen’s respect as he lands a few punches, and the two clash heads when closing in. There is no major damage from it, so Dillashaw ducks down to take the fight down but is comfortable holding on to a body lock from behind. Dillashaw holds on with several knees to the thigh as he tries to wrestle Sandhagen down, and he swings a big right hand when they break apart. Sandhagen ducks and counters, pawing out a trio of punches that bloody the eyebrow up again. Sandhagen stings Dillashaw with a left and then a right, and he evades the counterpunches that loop past his head. Dillashaw scores a leg kick and whiffs on a jumping overhand right, and Sandhagen peppers him with long, reaching punches. Sandhagen rips the body with a left hand, and he uppercuts Dillashaw in the body as Dillashaw closes in. The ex-champ grabs hold of him and wrestles him to the mat, but Sandhagen springs back up with Dillashaw holding his back. Sandhagen breaks the grip and lands a right hand, and he uses head movement and footwork to get away from the wild strikes from the bloodied Dillashaw. Dillashaw shoots for a takedown from afar, and Sandhagen stays upright but is getting pressed into the wire. Dillashaw redoubles his effort to get him down, but Sandhagen gets free and fights off the hand as Dillashaw is grabbing his glove. Sandhagen tattoos his fist on Dillashaw’s face, marking him up with jabs and snappy punches. Dillashaw fires back with a combination, and the only strike that lands is a thudding leg kick. Sandhagen spins and blasts Dillashaw in the face with an elbow, and Dillashaw shouts as he absorbs the blow. The round ends with Dillashaw giving chase.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Dillashaw
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dillashaw

Round 5
The final round begins, and Dillashaw pushes the pace with several leg kicks. Dillashaw chases him down but gets shoved away when he tries to get a grip on his foe, and the two trade long punches. Dillashaw whiffs on a few punches and lands a body kick, and Sandhagen stands before his man with his hands down. Dillashaw jumps forward with punch salvos, and Sandhagen touches Dillashaw on the way in and breaks up the combination. Dillashaw closes in, circles around and wrenches Sandhagen down to a knee. Sandhagen powers back up and breaks the grip to free himself, but not for long, as Dillashaw is ready to embrace the grind on him. Sandhagen works the body and pushes his adversary off of him, and he continues his assault on Dillashaw’s liver with left hands. Sandhagen scores a left hand, and as Dillashaw advances, he plants his knee on Dillashaw’s chest. Dillashaw is unconcerned and pushing the pace, charging after Sandhagen and landing a solid right hand on the way in. Sandhagen clips him with a right hand, but the former champ wears it well and gets countered on the way in. When Dillashaw reaches, Sandhagen is there to tag him with a longer, rangier punch. Dillashaw takes the distance away by clinching up, and he pursues a body lock takedown while gripping the fence. When Sandhagen gets free, he lands a heavy right hand, and Dillashaw is ready to brawl. The two are throwing single strikes one after the other like a pair of “rock-em sock-em robots,” until Dillashaw closes in to take the fight down. Dillashaw eats a right hand and gets uppercutted on the way, and the two trade blows. A left hand from Sandhagen digs to the body, and the two are throwing everything they have left in their punches. Sandhagen darts away when Dillashaw tries to charge him, and the both men land ferocious punches. Sandhagen lands effectively as he dodges the swarming former champion, and the fight ends in the hands of the judges. What a wild battle, and one that will see both men’s stock rise from it. Next week, we will once more be treated to an ESPN card, with one currently stuffed with 15 fights. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (48-47 Sandhagen)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (48-47 Sandhagen)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (48-47 Dillashaw)

The Official Result
T.J. Dillashaw def. Cory Sandhagen via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw has better footwork, wrestling, and power. He notes that Dillashaw was a masterclass before the suspension and that the layoff may have allowed him to train the entire time. He has Dillashaw in his DraftKings lineup and has placed a moneyline bet. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting an active fight that goes the distance.

moneyline bet on T.J. Dillashaw; more/more on monkey knife fight

"i like tj dilshaw to win this fight tj dillashaw is in my lineup i did a money line bet on tj dillashaw"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen due to Sandhagen's momentum, youth, and activity, while T.J. Dillashaw is coming off a 2.5-year layoff and PED suspension at age 35. He notes Sandhagen's significant size advantage (5 inches height, 2 inches reach) and high striking volume (6.85 sig strikes/min). He acknowledges Dillashaw's path via wrestling but questions his form post-suspension. He expects a competitive fight but leans Sandhagen by decision.

"I'll take san hagen to win by decision very intriguing fight... can't pick dillashaw here i can't do it"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen, citing durability and cardio advantages. He notes Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has a great gas tank, while Dillashaw has durability concerns and a long layoff. He expects Sandhagen's volume to wear down Dillashaw over five rounds. He acknowledges the price is a bit high but still picks Sandhagen.

"i would think san hagen i would think this thing's scheduled for five it's probably going to three four or five if not the distance but i would think at some point the volume from san hagan starts to wear …"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Cory Sandhagen

Daniel Levi picks Cory Sandhagen to win, citing Sandhagen's length, size, and unpredictability as key advantages. He notes that Sandhagen is the 2021 version of Dillashaw's style but taller and longer, and that Dillashaw's chin may be suspect after the Cejudo knockout. Levi acknowledges Dillashaw's wrestling but doubts he will use it effectively, as he hasn't landed a takedown in years. He predicts Sandhagen will knock out Dillashaw, emphasizing that Sandhagen capitalizes on finishes unlike other fighters.

predicts Sandhagen by knockout

"i think corey sang comes out here knocks out tj dillashaw"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cory Sandhagen

Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he thinks Sandhagen is the true talent and will find a way to finish T.J. Dillashaw. He notes that Dillashaw was almost finished by Cody Garbrandt and that Sandhagen is big, sharp, and uses his length well. He has Sandhagen in his DraftKings lineup but acknowledges that Dillashaw at $7,400 is incredible value. He expects a more/more fight.

"corsine hagen i think is the true tj honestly was in my lineup to start at 7 400 with his talent"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

The host leans toward T.J. Dillashaw as a dog, citing his wrestling advantage and experience. He believes Dillashaw can use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking. He notes Sandhagen's durability and finishing ability but thinks Dillashaw's grappling will be key. He likes Dillashaw by decision at +420.

Dillashaw by decision +420; Under 3.5 rounds -125 (mentioned as a possibility)

"i am leaning with the dog here with uh tj dillashaw i see his land ballooning up a little bit now he's at plus 165"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cory Sandhagen

Paul also picks Sandhagen, agreeing with Cody. He mentions the price is close to correct but has a concern about Sandhagen's takedown defense after the Sterling loss. He notes Dillashaw's layoff and weight cut issues. He does not have cash on it but will investigate at weigh-ins.

over 3.5 rounds +140

"i'm picking sand hag in here i don't have any cash on it though we'll we'll investigate further at the weigh-ins"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen due to his recent intensity and activity, contrasting with Dillashaw's 2.5-year layoff and age. He believes Sandhagen's length and kicking game, especially the question mark kick, will be key. He notes Dillashaw's chinny history and defensive habits that could be exploited. He predicts a first-round TKO via question mark kick, with Sandhagen setting it up with front kicks and inside leg kicks.

first round TKO via question mark kick

"i'm going to go with corey sandhagen first round tko question mark kicked it ahead"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Henry Cejudo

TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Henry Cejudo	1	18 of 23	78%	18 of 23	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
T.J. Dillashaw	0	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Henry Cejudo	1	18 of 23	78%	18 of 23	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	T.J. Dillashaw	0	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Henry Cejudo	18 of 23	78%	17 of 22	1 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 6	0 of 0	15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw	1 of 3	33%	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 2	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Henry Cejudo	18 of 23	78%	17 of 22	1 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 6	0 of 0	15 of 17
1	T.J. Dillashaw	1 of 3	33%	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 2	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0

WIN vs Cody Garbrandt

KO (knee and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Aug 04, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw	2	45 of 72	62%	51 of 78	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:30
Cody Garbrandt	0	17 of 43	39%	17 of 43	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	T.J. Dillashaw	2	45 of 72	62%	51 of 78	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:30
1	Cody Garbrandt	0	17 of 43	39%	17 of 43	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
T.J. Dillashaw	45 of 72	62%	37 of 60	5 of 6	3 of 6	16 of 38	15 of 16	14 of 18
Cody Garbrandt	17 of 43	39%	14 of 37	2 of 5	1 of 1	14 of 39	3 of 4	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	T.J. Dillashaw	45 of 72	62%	37 of 60	5 of 6	3 of 6	16 of 38	15 of 16	14 of 18
1	Cody Garbrandt	17 of 43	39%	14 of 37	2 of 5	1 of 1	14 of 39	3 of 4	0 of 0

WIN vs Cody Garbrandt

TKO (punches) R2 2:41 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw	1	18 of 53	33%	19 of 54	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04
Cody Garbrandt	2	20 of 81	24%	23 of 85	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:07

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	T.J. Dillashaw	1	15 of 42	35%	16 of 43	0 of 0	---	0:04
1	Cody Garbrandt	0	9 of 49	18%	9 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	T.J. Dillashaw	0	3 of 11	27%	3 of 11	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Cody Garbrandt	2	11 of 32	34%	14 of 36	0 of 1	0%	0:07

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
T.J. Dillashaw	18 of 53	33%	16 of 47	2 of 5	0 of 1	17 of 50	0 of 0	1 of 3
Cody Garbrandt	20 of 81	24%	12 of 49	1 of 12	7 of 20	14 of 74	0 of 0	6 of 7

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	T.J. Dillashaw	15 of 42	35%	13 of 37	2 of 4	0 of 1	14 of 39	0 of 0	1 of 3
1	Cody Garbrandt	9 of 49	18%	3 of 27	1 of 9	5 of 13	9 of 49	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	T.J. Dillashaw	3 of 11	27%	3 of 10	0 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cody Garbrandt	11 of 32	34%	9 of 22	0 of 3	2 of 7	5 of 25	0 of 0	6 of 7

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: T.J. Dillashaw vs. Cody Garbrandt

Round 1
Referee Herb Dean is the third man in the cage for tonight's 135-pound championship main event. Dillashaw blocks the first head kick from Garbrandt, then backs up and grins at his advancing challenger. Garbrandt gets a mitt up to block Dillashaw's right high kick as the bantamweights continue to feel out one another in the first 90 seconds. Garbrandt steps inside and gets cleared out of the pocket by Dillashaw's counter right hook. Dillashaw lowers his head and waits for Garbrandt to charge, then rocks "No Love" with a whipping right hand. Dillashaw slips, jumps up and gets pounced upon by Garbrandt, but the challenger is too eager and doesn't see Dillashaw's counter left hook coming. Garbrandt hits the deck in a daze, on his knees as Dillashaw tries to take his back. Garbrandt locks down one of Dillashaw's hands and clings on for dear life as he slows down the fight. The fighters scramble up, and Dillashaw stalks his wounded foe backward to the fence. Garbrandt shoots desperately for Dillashaw's legs and gets wobbled with a forearm to the chin. Garbrandt hits the ground, somehow climbs back to his feet under fire, but Dillashaw is all over him with punches against the wall. Dillashaw pulls a Thai clinch and obliterates Garbrandt with a knee to the face, then rattles his brain with a few more punches before referee Dean stops the bout. T.J. Dillashaw retains his UFC bantamweight title with another spectacular knockout of Cody Garbrandt, this one even quicker than the first.

The Official Result
T.J. Dillashaw def. Cody Garbrandt via KO (Knee and Punches) R1 4:10

WIN vs John Lineker

Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Dec 30, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw	0	71 of 119	59%	177 of 249	5 of 6	83%	1	0	6:53
John Lineker	0	38 of 90	42%	51 of 107	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:18

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	T.J. Dillashaw	13 of 30	43%	37 of 56	1 of 1	100%	0	1:34
1	John Lineker	12 of 40	30%	12 of 40	1 of 2	50%	0	0:05
2	T.J. Dillashaw	37 of 51	72%	98 of 131	2 of 2	100%	0	3:46
2	John Lineker	9 of 17	52%	19 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	T.J. Dillashaw	21 of 38	55%	42 of 62	2 of 3	66%	1	1:33
3	John Lineker	17 of 33	51%	20 of 36	0 of 0	---	0	0:13

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
T.J. Dillashaw	71 of 119	59%	53 of 98	10 of 12	8 of 9	25 of 59	0 of 0	46 of 60
John Lineker	38 of 90	42%	18 of 53	19 of 36	1 of 1	33 of 81	0 of 3	5 of 6

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	T.J. Dillashaw	13 of 30	43%	6 of 21	4 of 5	3 of 4	11 of 24	0 of 0	2 of 6
1	John Lineker	12 of 40	30%	6 of 28	6 of 12	0 of 0	11 of 35	0 of 3	1 of 2
2	T.J. Dillashaw	37 of 51	72%	33 of 47	4 of 4	0 of 0	4 of 9	0 of 0	33 of 42
2	John Lineker	9 of 17	52%	6 of 12	2 of 4	1 of 1	5 of 13	0 of 0	4 of 4
3	T.J. Dillashaw	21 of 38	55%	14 of 30	2 of 3	5 of 5	10 of 26	0 of 0	11 of 12
3	John Lineker	17 of 33	51%	6 of 13	11 of 20	0 of 0	17 of 33	0 of 0	0 of 0

WIN vs Raphael Assunção

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw	0	64 of 195	32%	72 of 205	1 of 5	20%	0	0	0:48
Raphael Assunção	0	49 of 140	35%	52 of 143	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	T.J. Dillashaw	18 of 72	25%	23 of 78	0 of 1	0%	0:17
1	Raphael Assunção	14 of 45	31%	14 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	T.J. Dillashaw	22 of 62	35%	23 of 63	0 of 2	0%	0:07
2	Raphael Assunção	13 of 42	30%	13 of 42	0 of 1	0%	0:02
3	T.J. Dillashaw	24 of 61	39%	26 of 64	1 of 2	50%	0:24
3	Raphael Assunção	22 of 53	41%	25 of 56	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
T.J. Dillashaw	64 of 195	32%	33 of 152	10 of 16	21 of 27	61 of 190	2 of 4	1 of 1
Raphael Assunção	49 of 140	35%	25 of 101	11 of 17	13 of 22	46 of 128	3 of 12	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	T.J. Dillashaw	18 of 72	25%	10 of 58	2 of 6	6 of 8	16 of 69	2 of 3	0 of 0
1	Raphael Assunção	14 of 45	31%	5 of 34	3 of 4	6 of 7	12 of 36	2 of 9	0 of 0
2	T.J. Dillashaw	22 of 62	35%	14 of 49	1 of 2	7 of 11	21 of 60	0 of 1	1 of 1
2	Raphael Assunção	13 of 42	30%	7 of 29	3 of 6	3 of 7	12 of 41	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	T.J. Dillashaw	24 of 61	39%	9 of 45	7 of 8	8 of 8	24 of 61	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raphael Assunção	22 of 53	41%	13 of 38	5 of 7	4 of 8	22 of 51	0 of 2	0 of 0

LOSS vs Dominick Cruz

Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz · Jan 17, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Dominick Cruz	0	109 of 408	26%	130 of 430	1 of 8	12%	0	0	1:11
T.J. Dillashaw	0	112 of 302	37%	122 of 312	4 of 11	36%	0	0	0:33

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Dominick Cruz	19 of 87	21%	26 of 94	0 of 2	0%	0:12
1	T.J. Dillashaw	21 of 62	33%	21 of 62	1 of 5	20%	0:07
2	Dominick Cruz	16 of 79	20%	17 of 80	0 of 2	0%	0:00
2	T.J. Dillashaw	17 of 52	32%	18 of 53	2 of 2	100%	0:10
3	Dominick Cruz	19 of 77	24%	19 of 77	0 of 2	0%	0:03
3	T.J. Dillashaw	19 of 54	35%	19 of 54	1 of 1	100%	0:13
4	Dominick Cruz	22 of 70	31%	35 of 84	1 of 1	100%	0:56
4	T.J. Dillashaw	25 of 58	43%	34 of 67	0 of 2	0%	0:03
5	Dominick Cruz	33 of 95	34%	33 of 95	0 of 1	0%	0:00
5	T.J. Dillashaw	30 of 76	39%	30 of 76	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Dominick Cruz	109 of 408	26%	64 of 343	22 of 39	23 of 26	102 of 394	6 of 13	1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw	112 of 302	37%	97 of 282	9 of 14	6 of 6	107 of 294	5 of 6	0 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Dominick Cruz	19 of 87	21%	9 of 73	7 of 11	3 of 3	19 of 83	0 of 4	0 of 0
1	T.J. Dillashaw	21 of 62	33%	17 of 56	2 of 4	2 of 2	19 of 59	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Dominick Cruz	16 of 79	20%	11 of 73	1 of 1	4 of 5	16 of 79	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	T.J. Dillashaw	17 of 52	32%	14 of 49	2 of 2	1 of 1	16 of 50	1 of 1	0 of 1
3	Dominick Cruz	19 of 77	24%	9 of 65	5 of 7	5 of 5	18 of 76	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	T.J. Dillashaw	19 of 54	35%	17 of 52	2 of 2	0 of 0	18 of 52	1 of 1	0 of 1
4	Dominick Cruz	22 of 70	31%	15 of 58	2 of 7	5 of 5	17 of 63	4 of 6	1 of 1
4	T.J. Dillashaw	25 of 58	43%	21 of 52	1 of 3	3 of 3	24 of 57	1 of 1	0 of 0
5	Dominick Cruz	33 of 95	34%	20 of 74	7 of 13	6 of 8	32 of 93	1 of 2	0 of 0
5	T.J. Dillashaw	30 of 76	39%	28 of 73	2 of 3	0 of 0	30 of 76	0 of 0	0 of 0

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