UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Kauê Fernandes
4.28 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
1.42 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
1.18 TD Avg
100.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mohammad Yahya
3.5 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
6.39 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
0.5 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
42.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Kauê Fernandes
Moneyline
DraftKings -345
KO/TKO
FanDuel +200
Submission
BetRivers +295
Decision
FanDuel +300
Mohammad Yahya
Moneyline
Caesars +300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +900
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
FanDuel +600
Kauê Fernandes - Fight History
CANCEL vs Farès Ziam
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo picks Kauê Fernandes confidently, criticizing the hype around Ziam. He believes Fernandes' aggression, grappling, and well-rounded skills will be too much for Ziam's point-fighting style. He notes that Ziam's wins are not as impressive as they seem. He plans to bet on Fernandes via a +3.5 round handicap when available, as he only needs Fernandes to win one round for that bet to cash.

plus 3.5 round handicap at plus 110
"I'm going to bet the [ __ ] out of Caillou Fernandez."
KO R1 3:21 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Harry Hardwick 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kauê Fernandes 1 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Harry Hardwick 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kauê Fernandes 1 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Harry Hardwick 8 of 23 34% 6 of 18 0 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 24 of 40 60% 11 of 24 3 of 4 10 of 12 24 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Harry Hardwick 8 of 23 34% 6 of 18 0 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 24 of 40 60% 11 of 24 3 of 4 10 of 12 24 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Big Brady picks Kauê Fernandes, noting his improved takedown defense and cardio. He acknowledges Hardwick is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. He believes Fernandes will win the first two rounds and possibly slow in the third, predicting a decision.

Fernandes by decision
"I'm leaning Fernandez here. I think the line's about accurate. Minus 175 makes sense to me."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guram Kutateladze 0 29 of 71 40% 36 of 81 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:05
Kauê Fernandes 2 79 of 149 53% 79 of 149 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guram Kutateladze 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Kauê Fernandes 0 26 of 50 52% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Guram Kutateladze 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kauê Fernandes 1 30 of 53 56% 30 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:05
3 Guram Kutateladze 0 13 of 29 44% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kauê Fernandes 1 23 of 46 50% 23 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guram Kutateladze 29 of 71 40% 16 of 51 10 of 15 3 of 5 23 of 64 6 of 7 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 79 of 149 53% 40 of 103 16 of 19 23 of 27 62 of 127 5 of 5 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guram Kutateladze 7 of 21 33% 3 of 14 3 of 5 1 of 2 5 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 26 of 50 52% 14 of 34 5 of 6 7 of 10 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Guram Kutateladze 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 30 of 53 56% 15 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 9 17 of 35 4 of 4 9 of 14
3 Guram Kutateladze 13 of 29 44% 7 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 3 12 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 23 of 46 50% 11 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 8 19 of 42 1 of 1 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo picks Kauê Fernandes as a 3-to-1 underdog, citing Guram Kutateladze's declining chin and recent struggles. He notes Guram was dropped in his last fight and is not the same prospect he once was. Angelo believes Kauê's forward pressure and power will be too much, though he is not betting the moneyline due to the long odds. He considers prop bets like inside distance or plus 3.5 rounds instead.

Considering win inside distance or plus 3.5 rounds props when they drop
"I'm going to go against the grain... I think Caillou Hernandez wins this fight flat out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Brady sees Guram as a big favorite and expects him to take over as the fight goes on. He notes that Kauê has terrible cardio and takedown defense, so Guram can mix in takedowns and win minutes. Brady predicts a competitive early round but Guram pulling away and winning by decision.

Guram by decision
"I'm kind of leaning at guram Cuda to L by decision so give me guram here and Guam to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

The host believes Kutateladze's Muay Thai and wrestling will nullify most of Fernandes's offense, leading to a decision victory. He emphasizes Kutateladze's overall game and ability to control the fight.

"I believe the overall game here from the Muay Thai to the wrestling of Couta Tadz should nullify most of Fernandez's offense."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

The Guru leans towards Guram Kutateladze, citing him as the more well-rounded and technical fighter. He notes that Kauê Fernandes has a good finish over Muhammad Yaya but considers Yaya a low-level opponent. He believes Guram's recent loss to Elves Brener was competitive and that Guram was winning until he faded. He expects the fight to go to a decision or late finish, with Guram winning 2-1 on rounds.

"I am going to have to lean towards gram cedi he's just a better fighter overall"
CANCEL vs Jared Gordon
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Kauê Fernandes as an underdog, arguing that the odds are too wide. He notes that Jared Gordon's only real path to victory is wrestling, and Fernandes has solid takedown defense (62%) and dangerous striking. He worries about Fernandes' takedown defense but thinks Fernandes can win if he uses leg kicks to take away Gordon's wrestling.

"I'm going to lean the dog we're going two fights in a row dog Caillou Fernandez my one and only concern here is the takedown defense of Caillou"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon to win by finish in the second or third round. He heavily criticizes Kauê Fernandes' competition level, noting his opponents have poor records and he has not fought anyone decent. He believes Gordon's well-rounded skills and consistency will overwhelm Fernandes, who likely needs an early finish to win.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go Jared Gordon getting this one done by finish in the second or third round"
TKO (punches) R1 4:45 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammad Yahya 1 37 of 63 58% 37 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammad Yahya 1 37 of 63 58% 37 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 37 of 63 58% 21 of 44 6 of 9 10 of 10 29 of 49 0 of 0 8 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kauê Fernandes 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 37 of 63 58% 21 of 44 6 of 9 10 of 10 29 of 49 0 of 0 8 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo is very confident in Fernandes, calling Yahya terrible and noting he falls over for no reason. He thinks Fernandes is better everywhere and should win a straightforward decision due to Yahya's toughness. He made the pick without much tape study.

"caio Fernandez is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Big Brady is confident in Fernandes, calling Yahya's performance against Trevor Peak one of the worst he's ever seen. He thinks Yahya is not UFC level, while Fernandes has solid striking, power, and a sneaky submission game. He predicts Fernandes wins by first-round knockout, noting the line is steep but the pick is clear.

"I think Fernandez is really solid striking I think he has a lot of power I think he has a very sneaky submission game as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Cody picks Kauê Fernandes, noting that Yahya was outwrestled by Trevor Peek and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Fernandes can keep the fight standing and use his superior striking. However, Cody worries about Fernandes's cardio and notes that if he doesn't finish early, Yahya could take over. He also mentions that Yahya is the hometown fighter and could get a favorable decision.

"The reason I'm going to end up going with Fernandez not just because he's some big favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Daniel leans towards Fernandes, viewing him as a better version of Yahya with more physicality and experience. However, he is not confident enough to lay -400 on an unproven fighter, so he calls it a pass but gives a lean.

"I'm a lean CWI because I see them as similar Fighters and CWI just being more physical"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mohammad Yahya

Yahya can grind out Fernandes, who has been grinded out in past fights and spends too much time on his back. At +340, Yahya is worth a sprinkle to win on the scorecards.

sprinkle at +340
"I feel Yaya at plus 340 is worth a bit of a sprinkle here to go out there and grind Fernandez out and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Paul picks Kauê Fernandes, noting that Yahya was dominated by Trevor Peek and has poor wrestling. He thinks Fernandes can implement a similar game plan and possibly find a submission. Paul acknowledges Fernandes's cardio issues but believes he can win early. He also mentions that the line is wide but Fernandes is the better striker.

"Yeah probably um yeah Fernandez makes this fight easier for himself by by Leon the wrestling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Kauê Fernandes over Mohammad Yahya, despite Yahya being the local Abu Dhabi fighter. He thinks Fernandes is more technical and composed, and can take advantage of Yahya's sloppy style. He notes Yahya got bruised up by Trevor Peek and that Fernandes is sharper. He mentions the split decision loss to Mark O. Madsen as a good sign.

"I'm gonna go Fernandez over Yaya I think yeah I don't like Yaya feel like he got bruised around a bit too much"
LOSS vs Marc Diakiese
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 42 54% 67 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:27
Kauê Fernandes 0 13 of 32 40% 65 of 92 3 of 8 37% 0 1 8:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 13 46% 17 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 10 40% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:33
2 Marc Diakiese 0 10 of 19 52% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 12 33% 16 of 29 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Marc Diakiese 0 7 of 10 70% 30 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Kauê Fernandes 0 5 of 10 50% 35 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 23 of 42 54% 6 of 20 8 of 13 9 of 9 21 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 13 of 32 40% 11 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 1 7 of 18 2 of 4 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 6 of 13 46% 2 of 6 2 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 10 40% 3 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Marc Diakiese 10 of 19 52% 2 of 9 5 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 12 33% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 7 of 10 70% 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Fernandes despite Diakiese's experience and competition edge. He believes Fernandes can defend takedowns and will stay in Diakiese's face with striking, causing trouble. He notes Diakiese has become more of a wrestler lately, but his wrestling is decent at best, while Fernandes has solid takedown defense. Angelo placed a small underdog bet on Fernandes at +145, noting the line is tightening.

small underdog bet at +145, line tightening to +116
"I am going to lean Fernandez here obviously Marc Dy has the uh experience level the competition Edge heavily favors him but I like Fernandez I think he can defend the takedowns I think he's going to come forward I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Marc Diakiese to win by decision. He notes that Diakiese has evolved into a wrestler, with 11 takedowns against Slava Borshchev and 8 against Damir Hadzovic. He trusts Diakiese's cardio and fight IQ, and believes Fernandes is dangerous early but fades. He also mentions that Diakiese's submission loss to Joel Alvarez was due to a head clash.

"I like di Casey here um and D Casey's fought the much better competition... give me Mark D Casey to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his UFC experience, improved cardio, and well-rounded game. He notes that Diakiese has evolved from a dynamic striker to a more complete fighter who uses offensive wrestling. Levi acknowledges Diakiese's inconsistency and tendency to flake, but believes this is a step down in competition. He sees Fernandes as dangerous early with his BJJ and head kicks, but expects Diakiese's cardio and wrestling to take over in later rounds. Levi is leaning Diakiese but not with high confidence.

Diakiese wins by decision, Diakiese wins inside distance
"I'll pick Diakiese with the experience... but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if this guy flakes out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

James acknowledges that Diakiese deserves to be a favorite but sees too much danger on the Fernandes side due to his unproven UFC debut and potential cardio issues. He notes that Diakiese has been submitted multiple times and that Fernandes has speed and power, but he also points out that Fernandes gassed in his last extended fight. Ultimately, James is not betting this fight because he cannot trust either fighter, but he leans Diakiese as the rightful favorite.

"I guess I'm picking mark in this fight because I think he should be a favorite but there's too much danger Factor on the Fernandez side."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Diakiese has a solid submission defense to thwart Fernandes' offensive attacks on the mat. As the fight goes into deeper waters, Diakiese will find it easier to control Fernandes on the mat and do good work from top position. Diakiese is good enough in the striking realm to deal with Fernandes' early threat, and will likely drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision win.

surprised line is dropping; thinks -130 is a gift
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is dropping as much as it has... I think that that's a solid spot, I think that's a gift of a spot to take the Casey here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese over Kauê Fernandes. He notes that Fernandes is a good regional fighter with finishing potential, but he gassed after the first round when facing adversity. Diakiese is tough to finish early, having only lost to Joel Alvarez due to a head clash. The Guru expects Diakiese to weather an early storm and then take over in the later rounds via grappling, predicting a third-round TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Mark Jai mainly because although KY Fernandez... he absolutely gassed after the first round... I'm going to go with Mark Jai via a third round TKO or finish by submission"
Mohammad Yahya - Fight History
LOSS vs Steven Nguyen
KO R2 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mohammad Yahya 0 57 of 151 37% 60 of 154 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:05
Steven Nguyen 6 92 of 174 52% 108 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mohammad Yahya 0 33 of 86 38% 33 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Steven Nguyen 5 59 of 112 52% 65 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
2 Mohammad Yahya 0 24 of 65 36% 27 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Steven Nguyen 1 33 of 62 53% 43 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mohammad Yahya 57 of 151 37% 41 of 126 14 of 21 2 of 4 57 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Nguyen 92 of 174 52% 76 of 156 4 of 4 12 of 14 50 of 111 7 of 7 35 of 56
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mohammad Yahya 33 of 86 38% 22 of 69 9 of 13 2 of 4 33 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Nguyen 59 of 112 52% 47 of 98 2 of 2 10 of 12 35 of 70 4 of 4 20 of 38
2 Mohammad Yahya 24 of 65 36% 19 of 57 5 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Nguyen 33 of 62 53% 29 of 58 2 of 2 2 of 2 15 of 41 3 of 3 15 of 18
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steven Nguyen

Angelo picks Steven Nguyen confidently, calling Mohammad Yahya a fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC. He notes Nguyen's well-rounded skills, heavy hands, slick submissions, and composed striking. He expects a decision but hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet the over, as Yahya is tough enough to take a beating for a while.

Hoping for over 1.5 rounds line to bet over
"I am picking Steven W to get the win. Full pun intended."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Steven Nguyen

Big Brady picks Steven Nguyen by default, calling Muhammad Yahya one of the worst fighters in the UFC. He notes Nguyen is not great but has solid volume, wrestling, and cardio, while Yahya has no power, volume, or grappling. He expects Nguyen to finish Yahya in the later rounds, predicting a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I would pick literally anybody against Muhammad Yaya. So, by default, I'm taking Steven Win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Steven Nguyen

Both fighters have left a lot to be desired in recent fights, but Nguyen is expected to stop the takedowns of Yahya and pick him apart on the feet, winning on the scorecards.

"I have to lean with Win as I think he'll be able to stop the takedowns of Yaya. pick him apart on the feet and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steven Nguyen

The MMA Guru picks Steven Nguyen over Mohammad Yahya, calling Yahya 'dog [__]' and suggesting he was only signed because he's from Abu Dhabi. He notes Nguyen's well-roundedness and lack of clear weaknesses, while Yahya has been beaten badly in his UFC fights. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Nguyen, outclassing Yahya in every round.

"I'm going to go with Steven to win this fight. I think he's a little bit more well-rounded, a little bit better on the feet, a little bit more disciplined um and composed in there. So, I'm going to say …"
LOSS vs Kauê Fernandes
TKO (punches) R1 4:45 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammad Yahya 1 37 of 63 58% 37 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammad Yahya 1 37 of 63 58% 37 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 37 of 63 58% 21 of 44 6 of 9 10 of 10 29 of 49 0 of 0 8 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kauê Fernandes 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 37 of 63 58% 21 of 44 6 of 9 10 of 10 29 of 49 0 of 0 8 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo is very confident in Fernandes, calling Yahya terrible and noting he falls over for no reason. He thinks Fernandes is better everywhere and should win a straightforward decision due to Yahya's toughness. He made the pick without much tape study.

"caio Fernandez is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Big Brady is confident in Fernandes, calling Yahya's performance against Trevor Peak one of the worst he's ever seen. He thinks Yahya is not UFC level, while Fernandes has solid striking, power, and a sneaky submission game. He predicts Fernandes wins by first-round knockout, noting the line is steep but the pick is clear.

"I think Fernandez is really solid striking I think he has a lot of power I think he has a very sneaky submission game as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Cody picks Kauê Fernandes, noting that Yahya was outwrestled by Trevor Peek and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Fernandes can keep the fight standing and use his superior striking. However, Cody worries about Fernandes's cardio and notes that if he doesn't finish early, Yahya could take over. He also mentions that Yahya is the hometown fighter and could get a favorable decision.

"The reason I'm going to end up going with Fernandez not just because he's some big favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Daniel leans towards Fernandes, viewing him as a better version of Yahya with more physicality and experience. However, he is not confident enough to lay -400 on an unproven fighter, so he calls it a pass but gives a lean.

"I'm a lean CWI because I see them as similar Fighters and CWI just being more physical"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mohammad Yahya

Yahya can grind out Fernandes, who has been grinded out in past fights and spends too much time on his back. At +340, Yahya is worth a sprinkle to win on the scorecards.

sprinkle at +340
"I feel Yaya at plus 340 is worth a bit of a sprinkle here to go out there and grind Fernandez out and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Paul picks Kauê Fernandes, noting that Yahya was dominated by Trevor Peek and has poor wrestling. He thinks Fernandes can implement a similar game plan and possibly find a submission. Paul acknowledges Fernandes's cardio issues but believes he can win early. He also mentions that the line is wide but Fernandes is the better striker.

"Yeah probably um yeah Fernandez makes this fight easier for himself by by Leon the wrestling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Kauê Fernandes over Mohammad Yahya, despite Yahya being the local Abu Dhabi fighter. He thinks Fernandes is more technical and composed, and can take advantage of Yahya's sloppy style. He notes Yahya got bruised up by Trevor Peek and that Fernandes is sharper. He mentions the split decision loss to Mark O. Madsen as a good sign.

"I'm gonna go Fernandez over Yaya I think yeah I don't like Yaya feel like he got bruised around a bit too much"
LOSS vs Trevor Peek
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trevor Peek 0 43 of 92 46% 47 of 96 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Mohammad Yahya 0 61 of 97 62% 83 of 123 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trevor Peek 0 8 of 13 61% 12 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:18
Mohammad Yahya 0 16 of 25 64% 25 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:13
2 Trevor Peek 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammad Yahya 0 23 of 39 58% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
3 Trevor Peek 0 14 of 33 42% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Mohammad Yahya 0 22 of 33 66% 35 of 50 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trevor Peek 43 of 92 46% 28 of 70 14 of 21 1 of 1 41 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 61 of 97 62% 32 of 61 16 of 23 13 of 13 50 of 83 6 of 9 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trevor Peek 8 of 13 61% 5 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 16 of 25 64% 6 of 13 4 of 6 6 of 6 13 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 2
2 Trevor Peek 21 of 46 45% 16 of 35 5 of 11 0 of 0 20 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 23 of 39 58% 12 of 26 6 of 8 5 of 5 21 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Trevor Peek 14 of 33 42% 7 of 25 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 22 of 33 66% 14 of 22 6 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 27 3 of 3 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Angelo picks Trevor Peek after initially wanting to bet on Yahya. He notes Yahya gets hit too often and doesn't wrestle well, while Peek has a granite chin and relentless pressure. He thinks Peek's toughness and forward pressure will be enough to win, even though Peek is not very skilled.

"Trevor peak's going to be the pick he has had the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek to win by first round knockout. He describes Peek as a wild, durable brawler with incredible toughness and cardio, while Yahya is just okay and has been finished in all three of his losses. Brady expects Peek to set a pace Yahya cannot handle and win a chaotic brawl. He also likes the prop of Peek over 77.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks.

first round knockout, over 77.5 fantasy score
"give me Trevor Peak to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody picks Peek, emphasizing his toughness and power. He notes that Yahya is a one-dimensional striker with no grappling, and that Peek's pressure will eventually land. Cody expects a KO, possibly in the second round after Yahya tires.

Peek by KO, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm in on Peak too he's my boy I'm not going to go against my boy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel picks Trevor Peek to win, describing him as an elite brawler with durability and power. He notes that Mohammad Yahya has been dropped by lower-level competition and thinks Peek's firepower will be too much. He acknowledges that Peek can fade and is not technically sound, but believes Peek's durability and brawling style will prevail. He also mentions the possibility of hometown judging but thinks a finish would negate that.

Peek minus 155, Yahya plus 130; mentions possibility of Peek fading but still winning
"I think Trevor peak's gonna win this fight... I think that the durability of Trevor Peak is GNA be a big difference here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Yahya is hittable and leaves his chin on the center line, which plays into Peek's power. Peek is durable and has better grappling defense than expected. Expects Peek to land big shots and find a knockout within the first two rounds. However, he feels queasy playing Peek at short odds due to his skill shortage.

inside the distance, round 1 or 2
"I feel like Peak is going to go out there and and find that chin probably within the first two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul picks Peek, noting that Yahya is a local fighter with limited skills and poor grappling. He believes Peek's pressure, durability, and power will overwhelm Yahya, who has a weak chin and no plan B. Paul expects a KO finish, likely in the first two rounds.

Peek by KO (+120), under 1.5 rounds
"I also think Trevor Peek could take him down the thing is is I don't think Trevor Peek has got great top control yet so like even though he can get takedowns they're mostly muscle"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

The MMA Guru picks Trevor Peek by first-round KO. He was initially leaning towards Yahya but was unimpressed by Yahya's regional fight where he was dropped and outgrappled. He trusts Peek's chin and believes the fight will be a sloppy brawl that favors Peek. He notes Peek has good takedown defense and Yahya's grappling isn't good enough to win.

Peek wins in round 1 by KO
"I'm going Trevor Peak by KO so I'm going to go by I'm going to go Trevor Peak their Rens in odds and I'm going to take him by KO here in the first round over Muhammad Yaya"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo is very confident in Fernandes, calling Yahya terrible and noting he falls over for no reason. He thinks Fernandes is better everywhere and should win a straightforward decision due to Yahya's toughness. He made the pick without much tape study.

"caio Fernandez is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Big Brady is confident in Fernandes, calling Yahya's performance against Trevor Peak one of the worst he's ever seen. He thinks Yahya is not UFC level, while Fernandes has solid striking, power, and a sneaky submission game. He predicts Fernandes wins by first-round knockout, noting the line is steep but the pick is clear.

"I think Fernandez is really solid striking I think he has a lot of power I think he has a very sneaky submission game as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Cody picks Kauê Fernandes, noting that Yahya was outwrestled by Trevor Peek and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Fernandes can keep the fight standing and use his superior striking. However, Cody worries about Fernandes's cardio and notes that if he doesn't finish early, Yahya could take over. He also mentions that Yahya is the hometown fighter and could get a favorable decision.

"The reason I'm going to end up going with Fernandez not just because he's some big favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Daniel leans towards Fernandes, viewing him as a better version of Yahya with more physicality and experience. However, he is not confident enough to lay -400 on an unproven fighter, so he calls it a pass but gives a lean.

"I'm a lean CWI because I see them as similar Fighters and CWI just being more physical"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mohammad Yahya

Yahya can grind out Fernandes, who has been grinded out in past fights and spends too much time on his back. At +340, Yahya is worth a sprinkle to win on the scorecards.

sprinkle at +340
"I feel Yaya at plus 340 is worth a bit of a sprinkle here to go out there and grind Fernandez out and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Paul picks Kauê Fernandes, noting that Yahya was dominated by Trevor Peek and has poor wrestling. He thinks Fernandes can implement a similar game plan and possibly find a submission. Paul acknowledges Fernandes's cardio issues but believes he can win early. He also mentions that the line is wide but Fernandes is the better striker.

"Yeah probably um yeah Fernandez makes this fight easier for himself by by Leon the wrestling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Kauê Fernandes over Mohammad Yahya, despite Yahya being the local Abu Dhabi fighter. He thinks Fernandes is more technical and composed, and can take advantage of Yahya's sloppy style. He notes Yahya got bruised up by Trevor Peek and that Fernandes is sharper. He mentions the split decision loss to Mark O. Madsen as a good sign.

"I'm gonna go Fernandez over Yaya I think yeah I don't like Yaya feel like he got bruised around a bit too much"