Career Averages - Ilia Topuria
Career Averages - Charles Oliveira
Ilia Topuria
Charles Oliveira
Ilia Topuria - Fight History
AJ believes Topuria's hands are too precise and his boxing is too elite for Gaethje. He mentions that Gaethje's calf kicks and forward pressure give him a chance, but ultimately Topuria's striking is different and he expects Topuria to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)
Round 1
One way or another, lightweight history will be made tonight. Either Topuria (16-0, 8-0 UFC) will become the first undefeated two-division champ in UFC history, or Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC; 23-10, 1 NC UFC) will serve as the first two-time 155-pound king. The finish rates of the two are high, excitement is higher and the
fighter
that was
electrocuted in Thailand
on Sunday at a Weed Boxing show may be the highest. Locked and loaded, referee Marc Goddard has got this. Before the mayhem begins, the 155ers vying for the vacant throne share a respectful fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Oliveira is quick to deliver a hard leg kick, and they get right to swinging. Both men tag one another immediately, with the former lightweight champ hitting harder but suffering a cut on the eye. Oliveira rushes forward to grab hold of Topuria, searching for a body lock takedown. Oliveira tries to throw Topuria to the mat, but he ends up falling to his back. Blood flows from the eyebrow of “Do Bronxs,” who latches onto a leglock that drags Topuria to the floor. Topuria scrambles wildly to get his leg out, turning towards the Brazilian and exploding his way up. He slaps Oliveira with a few low kicks to either side, until Goddard tells Oliveira to stand. Topuria lets loose with swinging fists, and Oliveira clinches and throws him to the wall. Oliveira dips and delivers an uppercut on the chin, and Topuria goes to the body. Topuria’s power is maximum, as he unleashes a thunderous right hook and a lightning bolt left that sends Oliveira collapsing to the floor, completely unconscious. Before Goddard can get between them, Topuria hammers the nail with a couple brutal, unnecessary hammerfists. The snoozing Oliveira’s eyes stare into the void, and the void stares back into him until he regains consciousness.
While Oliveira has been stopped with strikes before, including taking a one-hitter quitter from Cub Swanson in 2012, no one has done that to the Brazilian at 155 pounds. The vacancy of the lightweight belt is now filled, and it is in the arms of “El Matador.” Topuria called his shot perfectly, claiming before the match that he would knock out Oliveira in the first round. He did just that, and the next question is who will be next for him. Three awaiting contenders are shown in the crowd: Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett and Arman Tsarukyan. Topuria calls out Pimblett specifically, and declares, “If you think you are ready, come on you blonde b--ch.” Pimblett jumps out of the crowd to hurry into the cage, and politely gives Topuria credit for the hellacious knockout while patting him on the shoulder. “Paddy the Baddy” then announces that he will finish Topuria, and that “El Matador” could not knock him out. Topuria shoves Pimblett as dollar signs flash in the eyes of UFC executives, with the company apparently matching the fight right now. If that fight does materialize, it will be a big one, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira R1 2:27 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he believes Topuria's boxing, footwork, and wrestling are superior to Charles Oliveira's. He notes that Oliveira has been rocked in almost every fight, while Topuria has only been dropped once and recovered to win. He acknowledges that Oliveira is a great grappler but thinks Topuria's wrestling is better and his hands are cleaner. He is slightly concerned about Topuria's size at lightweight but thinks he will get the job done.
Big Brady believes this is a bad matchup for Oliveira, citing Topuria's excellent takedown defense and power. He notes Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights and Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has faced. Brady thinks the fight will stay standing, where Topuria will land big shots and potentially finish early. He also mentions that referee Mark Goddard is quick to stop fights, which favors Topuria. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor sees this as a bad stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira's losses come against fighters who aren't afraid to grapple with him and who pressure him, both of which describe Topuria. He also highlights Topuria's body punching and pressure fighting as key advantages, and believes Topuria's wrestling defense is sufficient to neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Topuria to finish Oliveira relatively quickly, either by knockout or by dominating on the ground.
The host believes Topuria can walk Oliveira down and land big power shots, setting up a knockout. He also notes Topuria might look to take the fight to the ground to submit the UFC submission leader, but ultimately expects a knockout victory.
The host picks Ilia Topuria by TKO, citing his crisp boxing, power, and ability to hurt Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira gets hurt by everyone and that Topuria's compact style will be difficult for Oliveira to grapple with. He predicts multiple knockdowns leading to a finish late in the first round.
Zane agrees that Topuria is a bad matchup for Oliveira. He points out that Oliveira's game relies on fear and aggression, and if an opponent doesn't respect his grappling, Oliveira can be beaten. He notes that Topuria is a pressure fighter who is comfortable in the pocket and has good takedown defense. Zane also mentions that Oliveira looked slower and more cautious in his last fight against Chandler, which is a worrying sign. He expects Topuria to win, possibly by knockout or by outgrappling Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 75 of 144 | 52% | 78 of 147 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 84 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 35 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 75 of 144 | 52% | 49 of 114 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 16 | 71 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 79 of 204 | 38% | 47 of 151 | 13 of 30 | 19 of 23 | 79 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 30 of 75 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 32 of 62 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 35 of 102 | 34% | 23 of 79 | 3 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)
Round 1
One of the best fights the UFC could possibly make serves as the main attraction, and it is one for all the marbles. Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) puts his featherweight strap and undefeated record on the line against former champ Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC), and excitement is at a fever pitch. No more introductions are needed. Referee Marc Goddard brings the gladiators to the center of the Octagon to touch gloves, and they do just that. It’s on with the show. Topuria stands in the middle of the cage and points to the ground, and Holloway motions a matador gesture to counter him. They do not brawl it out immediately. Topuria advances calmly instead, measuring the former champ and blocking a head kick and a few jabs. Topuria goes over the top with a right hand that misses the mark, and a second nearly lands as well. Holloway keeps active with jabs and body kicks, and he swipes out with a right hook that misses the mark. Topuria puts everything he has into a huge right hand, and Holloway is wise to it and pecks at him with sharp jabs. Topuria shoots in and lifts “Blessed” off his feet, driving him to the canvas with a solid double. Holloway wall-walks, and Topuria forced a mat return. Holloway stands once more and breaks away, and he checks a low kick and advances with a right hand. Topuria gives him a right to think about, but Holloway does not let him off the hook and pegs him with a pair of punches. Topuria chops at the front leg a few times, and he tags Holloway with a right hand. Holloway skirts out of the way before absorbing more than a few, and Topuria works his front leg with another hard kick. Holloway snaps out a jab, marking up Topuria’s face and coming up short with a front kick. Topuria reaches his target with a jab, and Holloway prods out with low kicks. Topuria tries to swing it out, and Holloway is composed enough to evade the blows and get off a long right hand on the way out. Holloway splits the guard with a front kick and has his guard high to defend the counters, and his head kick bounces off the guard. Holloway peppers his opponent with a low kick and jabs, and he follows a jab with a two. Topuria shakes it off and walks into a jab that makes him reset, and he dodges a spinning back kick in time. Topuria throws hammers, and he knocks an off-balance Holloway down to the mat in what was more of a slip or a trip than a clean strike, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to get started again, and Holloway fights immediately behind his jab. Topuria comes up short with a low kick and a right hand, and he gets caught on the way in with a jab. Holloway tags the champ with a clean right, and he trades low kicks with his opponent. Holloway goes to the head and body with jabs, and he takes one on the nose to back him away. Topuria wings power punches that hit air, but his calf kick finds its mark. Topuria clubs Holloway on the side of the head with winging punches, and he chains a calf kick after it. Topuria gets in a right hand and has a leg kick checked, and Holloway snaps his head back with a jab. Holloway steps in with a knee behind a few jabs, and he stomps at the front knee of his adversary. Topuria drills Holloway in the chin with a left hand, and he goes after the front leg with a kick again. Topuria’s punches connect cleanly on the jaw of the Hawaiian, who shows him what time it is with a left hook and a head kick on the other side. Topuria loads up on power strikes, and Holloway’s jabs are disrupting him just enough so that he does not get them full blast. Holloway dips a huge hook and jabs away, and he reaches out with a body shot. Topuria answers in kind, and he rolls with a right hook. Holloway kicks the side as he fires off jabs, and he checks a kick and kicks his man back. Holloway knees the side as Topuria barrels down on him, and he nails the champ with a short left and a power right. Topuria responds with a right hand, and he is met with multiple low kicks in response. Chants for both fighters are deafening in the building, and Holloway chains a number of punches together to decent effect. Topuria kicks the front leg and gets met with a body kick, and he eats a right hand when throwing one. Holloway scores a spinning back kick to the body, and Topuria shrugs at him before the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
It’s back to more face-punching as they resume again, and Holloway uses his punches to set up two low kicks and a third up high. Topuria walks through a leg kick to land a right on the chin, and Holloway scores a left hand as Topuria points at him. Topuria deploys a powerful leg kick, and a second one is met with long punches from the former champ. Holloway stomps at his foe’s front leg a few times, and Topuria does not lie it. Topuria winds up with a huge right hand, knocking the former champ back and stunning him. Holloway shells up and defends himself from an onslaught, and he is still rocked even as he counters and circles away. Topuria is on top of him ready to finish the job, further backing Holloway up to the wall and letting loose with a bombardment of punches. A ferocious left hand in the midst of a fierce flurry knocks Holloway down to the ground, and Topuria has achieved something no featherweight has ever accomplished. Topuria lowers himself down to blast Holloway with a number of hammerfists, and Holloway’s lights go out and get switched back on from the stream of blows. Goddard sees that Holloway has had enough and waves the fight off, and Topuria wanders away and motions sipping at tea. Incredible! Topuria has done the impossible, knocking out a fighter who had never before been stopped with strikes. Topuria is still undefeated, having notched back-to-back finishes that will stack up among the greatest ever performed in the division. Topuria leaps out of the cage to embrace anyone he can find, including UFC chief exec Hunter Campbell and television host Steve Harvey. As he returns to the cage, he receives a rose for his effort. Topuria welcomes all challengers, including former champion Alexander Volkanovski, who takes the cage to greet him. Topuria says he does not want to fight anyone right now, and instead wants to hug Volkanovski. He does just that. Full of love, Topuria wants to celebrate this victory with his family and team. It remains to be seen who is next for the champion, who cements himself as a star and one of the greats in his weight class because of this spectacular triumph. No matter who is next for "El Matador," we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway R3 1:34 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.
Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.
Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.
Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.
Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.
Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.
Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 35 of 77 | 45% | 36 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 47 of 107 | 43% | 21 of 68 | 11 of 22 | 15 of 17 | 44 of 102 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 77 | 45% | 17 of 53 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 26 of 52 | 50% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 12 | 11 of 11 | 24 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 15 of 38 | 39% | 4 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 39 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 39 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-118), Topuria (-102)
Round 1
We have reached the marquee matchup of the evening, and it is one that fight fans have been waiting patiently to watch for several months. Unable to secure a second title, Volkanovski (26-3, 13-2 UFC) will have to make do with attempting the sixth defense of his featherweight throne. Much has been said about his age, having recently turned 35, and he steered into it on fight week by donning an “Old Man Volk” persona. Eight years the junior of the champ, full of vinegar and that other thing, fired up unbeaten Topuria (14-0, 6-0 UFC) wants that gold belt, and to claim it he will have to become the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. No matter how this fight plays out, referee Jason Herzog will take care of the proceedings. When he brings the fighters together, they opt to touch gloves first. Topuria moves towards the center of the cage, and he blocks a quick head kick. As Topuria advances, Volkanovski snipes him with kicks high and low. Volkanovski paws out with a left and a body kick, and Topuria walks through them and retaliates with a sharp right hand over the top. Volkanovski times a kick to the body and continues throwing them to the lead leg and midsection, even flicking one up high as he keeps Topuria from reaching him. Volkanovski rips the body with another kick, and he pokes out a jab. Topuria winds up with a hard leg kick, spinning the champ all the way around, and Volkanovski recovers with a spinning back fist just in case Topuria was advancing. Topuria kicks the calf low with bad intentions, and he backs the champ off with an overhand right that glances off his guard. Topuria gets off another low kick, and he forces Volkanovski to change stances just a few in. Volkanovski dances out of the way of a short combo of fists, and he whips a kick up high to keep Topuria honest. Volkanovski delivers a calf kick back, and he follows suit with a body kick. Volkanovski paws out a left as Topuria charges, but Topuria manages to break through and sting Volkanovski with a right hand. Volkanovski bounces off the fence and shakes it off, where he peppers kicks to stave off the offense from the challenger. Volkanovski connects with a body kick and slips a huge punch, and he drives two heavy low kicks home to stumble Topuria. Volkanovski tags Topuria on the way in with a short left hand, and Topuria motions to him that his punches do not faze him. Volkanovski signals that he did land cleanly, and he shoots for a takedown only to break and knee the Georgian three times in rapid succession. The close round ends with a trickle of blood leaking from the bridge of Topuria’s nose.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The featherweights touch ‘em up in the middle of the cage, and Volkanovski is fleet of foot, darting in and out with jabs and kicks to any target he can find. Topuria crashes the pocket with two hooks, and Volkanovski rolls with them and shifts to the side. Topuria chases with an overhand right, and Volkanovski measures with jabs. Topuria lands cleanly with a right and then a left, and Volkanovski nods at him and clinches up only to knee the challenger on the break. Volkanovski connects with a right hand and a low kick as Topuria resets, and Volkanovski reaches him on the way back with a body kick. Topuria lunges to land a single punch, and the jabs from Volkanovski have opened the slight cut on Topuria’s nose again. Topuria knocks Volkanovski back with a right hand, and he digs a kick to the calf as Volkanovski changes stances. They snap out jabs at the same time, with the champion reaching more cleanly and frequently when they trade them. Volkanovski peppers the lead leg with kicks, and he drives a right hand into Topuria’s forehead to give him a moment of pause. Topuria lands a low kick, and Volkanovski gives him back one to the calf and one to the body. Volkanovski springs forward with jabs that have marked the face up of the challenger, and he does not slow in his approach of kicking to any target he can find. Frustrated with taking potshots from afar, “El Matador” charges like a bull. Volkanovski slips the oncoming fire, rebounding off the cage wall, but Topuria does not slow. Topuria unleashes a lightning bolt of a right hand that completely short circuits the champion. All the way out, Volkanovski collapses with his back to the fence, and Topuria dings him on the way down with a speedy left to follow. Herzog sprints between them to save Volkanovski from any further punishment, as the champion is no longer conscious—and no longer the champion. Topuria hammers any final nail with a few right hands until Herzog reaches him to pull him off of the downed Aussie. Incredible! Spain and Georgia now have a UFC champion, and his name is Ilia Topuria. The new champ is now an undefeated 15-0 with 13 finishes, with none bigger than this stunning moment. Topuria springs the only betting upset of the evening, starching one of the greatest to ever do it with one monumental punch. Welcome to the Topuria era.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Alexander Volkanovski R2 3:32 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.
Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.
Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 87 of 305 | 28% | 89 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 152 of 344 | 44% | 171 of 365 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 14 of 68 | 20% | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 19 of 68 | 27% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 13 of 52 | 25% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 56 of 100 | 56% | 62 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 87 of 305 | 28% | 43 of 232 | 26 of 53 | 18 of 20 | 87 of 305 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 152 of 344 | 44% | 124 of 302 | 9 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 114 of 289 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 14 of 68 | 20% | 8 of 58 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 68 | 27% | 8 of 47 | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 30 of 75 | 40% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 31 of 81 | 38% | 16 of 60 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 37 of 91 | 40% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 13 of 52 | 25% | 6 of 39 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 56 of 100 | 56% | 50 of 90 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 43 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 36 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)
Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.
Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.
Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.
The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.
Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.
Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 46 of 94 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 1 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 53 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 31 of 64 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 1 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 36 of 82 | 43% | 22 of 57 | 11 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 40 of 77 | 51% | 34 of 63 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 52 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 17 of 38 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 23 of 39 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)
Round 1
In this main card opener, only one undefeated fighter will remain shortly. Entering into his seventh outing as a UFC fighter, “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC) would very much like to spoil the fellow perfect record of Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC), all while sporting special camouflage fight shorts. Topuria does not receive special apparel, but he does celebrate a 92% finish rate that could play a factor very soon. 2022 Referee of the Year award winner Marc Goddard is on the call for this important featherweight pairing, and the fighters he oversees do not bother touching gloves first. Topuria stays low, and he wades forward into action. After Mitchell leads off with a kick to the knee and a side kick, Topuria blasts the Arkansas native in the face with four powerful punches. Topuria digs into the lead calf with a kick to force an immediate stance switch, and Mitchell shoots in for a takedown that fails. Topuria meet him in the middle and catches Michell cleanly with a right hand, and Mitchell responds with a few solid jabs and a low kick. Topuria connects with a right hand down Broadway, and Mitchell replies with a left. The single hooks from Topuria get around the guard and get Mitchell’s attention, with his right finding the target again and again. Mitchell tosses out a front kick that aims at the face, and he shoots for a failed takedown that Topuria easily avoids. As they clash together, a cut opens on the inner left eyebrow of the American. Mitchell lines up two punches and changes levels for a low single, but Topuria springs away to push his back to the wall. Topuria nearly turns things around, forcing Mitchell to drop to a knee, and ultimately stopping the entry. Mitchell releases the clinch and gets off a body shot, but Topuria rings his bell with an overhand right. “El Matador” throws two punches so hard he stumbles, but Mitchell does not capitalize on this and instead allows Topuria to return to striking stance. Topuria dodges a kick and uses head movement to work his way in, and Mitchell crashes forward and practically tackles Topuria to put him on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in half guard, but Topuria pulls him back to the guard and boxes the ear from off his back. Mitchell scores a few punches, but Topuria stings him with a left hand off his back. Mitchell rides out the top position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
Mitchell starts the second round rushing forward, but ultimately he walks into two lightning-quick punches. Mitchell attempts to respond with a side kick, but Topuria pushes it aside and stuffs a takedown try. When Mitchell stands up, Topuria nails his man in the face with a pair of strikes. Mitchell recovers and gets backed off by the swinging offense of his opponent, and they clash together again and may bump heads, but Mitchell cannot ground him with another effort. Mitchell looks to time the overhand right with takedown tries, but time and time again, he falls short. Topuria overthrows a punch, and Mitchell gets his attention with a short combo that fires up the crowd. Topuria sets up an uppercut with two punches to follow it, and he knocks the Arkansan off his feet and down to the mat. Topuria leaps down to possibly pull off a neck-based choke, but a bloodied Mitchell welcomes this so that he can set up a scramble or go for a submission. Topuria does not let him off the hook, bludgeoning him repeatedly with thunderous blows until Mitchell works his way up. Mitchell attempts to get a takedown when Topuria is laying into him, but Topuria throws him over to the mat like a kid wrestling with his dad. A deflated Mitchell tries with all his might to turn or twist, and he manages to sit up. This is not the best position for him, as Topuria snatches on to a seated arm-triangle choke and hurls Mitchell back down, with the submission exceptionally tight. The submission specialist Mitchell, who had won 15 fights as a pro – the loss the UFC claimed took place on “The Ultimate Fighter” and was an exhibition match – surrenders for the first time in his career. This is a massive victory for Topuria, who stamps himself as a featherweight contender and calls for a UFC card in Spain.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:10 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo is extremely confident Topuria wins, calling him a world-class wrestler from Georgia who can outstrike and outwrestle Mitchell. He compares it to Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson, where the world-class wrestler dominated. He has a moneyline bet on Topuria placed earlier and is shocked Topuria isn't a 9-1 favorite. He believes Mitchell's Arkansas wrestling is no match for Topuria's lifelong Georgian wrestling.
Big Brady slightly leans toward Bryce Mitchell as a dog, citing Mitchell's superior cardio and wrestling. He notes Topuria has shown cardio issues in his only decision win, while Mitchell has improved striking and can push a pace. He expects a back-and-forth war with Mitchell edging out a split decision, but has low confidence.
Cody picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his development, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He thinks Mitchell's pressure and takedowns will be key, and that Topuria's wrestling may not be enough to stop him. He notes Topuria's close fight with Herbert Burns and that Mitchell has better cardio and can take over late. He predicts Mitchell by decision.
Connor picks Mitchell, citing his versatility, wrestling, and ability to take advantage of opportunities. He notes Topuria has a narrow approach and Mitchell has proven he can adapt and take fights where he wants. Connor believes Mitchell's takedowns and top control will be decisive, as Topuria hasn't faced a grappler of Mitchell's caliber.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to hand Bryce Mitchell his first loss. He is impressed by Topuria's fast-twitch athleticism, nasty hands, body work, and Greco-Roman wrestling background. Levi notes Topuria's ability to stuff takedowns and his proven heart (coming back from a head kick knockdown). He believes Topuria's athleticism and well-rounded game will be too much for Mitchell, who relies on relentless takedown attempts. Levi acknowledges Mitchell's toughness and top control but thinks Topuria can sprawl and brawl, making Mitchell pay for his shots.
Lock likes Topuria on the moneyline and on PredictionStrike, noting that at -130 and $1.75 on PredictionStrike, there is good value. He acknowledges question marks about Topuria's third round against Yousuff and getting rocked by Jai Herbert, but credits him for battling back from adversity. He believes Topuria has tremendous potential and that the hype is justified, though he needs to prove it. He recommends taking Topuria on PredictionStrike and moneyline, while for Mitchell, he suggests just the moneyline as a dog.
Paul picks Mitchell, noting his intelligence in the fight and ability to pick his spots. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling and submission threat will be a factor, and that Topuria's power and speed are dangerous early. He suggests a Mitchell round 3 prop or live betting, as Mitchell may take over later. He is not fully confident but leans Mitchell.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell by first-round TKO via body shots. He respects Mitchell's skills but believes Topuria's boxing is too clean and he will push Mitchell backwards, ripping body shots. He notes Topuria's scrambling ability and submission threats, and thinks Mitchell will struggle to get takedowns. He predicts Topuria finishes him early.
Zane picks Topuria, citing his confidence on the ground from the Ryan Hall fight and his superior athleticism. He believes Topuria's grappling will get him back to his feet repeatedly, and his striking pressure will force Mitchell to process the fight too often. Zane notes Mitchell's striking gaps when he's indecisive, and Topuria's body punching will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 50 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 47 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 22 of 63 | 34% | 20 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 20 of 41 | 48% | 17 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 47 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 12 of 27 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card is a classic stylistic battle when the appropriately titled “Black Country Banger” Herbert (11-3, 1-2 UFC) faces off against Spanish submission threat Topuria (11-0, 3-0 UFC) in the lightweight division. Trying to keep a lid on what is sure to be a fast-paced tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, although he does not need to worry about disrespect as the two touch gloves first. Herbert bounces up and down before snapping out a jab, and he steps in with a knee when Topuria advances towards him. Herbert keeps his opponent at bay with long, rangy strikes, getting the smaller Topuria’s attention quickly. Herbert lets his hands go and follows it with a head kick, dropping Topuria in the opening minute, and the audience bursts into cheers for their local man. “El Matador” springs back to his feet and crashes forward to go after a takedown, pushing Herbert all the way back to the cage but not getting him down. After multiple fence grabs from Herbert, Topuria is finally able to lift him up off the ground and slam him to the mat with emphasis. Topuria lands in side control, where he starts to isolate Herbert’s right arm and set up a crucifix. The scrambling Brit is able to recover his position, and he drags Topuria all the way back to his guard. Topuria madly dashes to try to pass guard, smashing Herbert in the face a few times, and he gets kicked off briefly but dives back on top. Herbert ties Topuria up, defending himself from much offense and keeping Topuria in his guard, but Topuria slowly works his way to open up on punches. Herbert scrambles, and he forces his way back to his feet and blasts Topuria with a back-elbow. Topuria is wobbled, and Herbert drills him with a long combination that knocks Topuria back. Goddard stops the fight for a second to replace Topuria’s mouthpiece, as it had been knocked out from the heavy punches from the Brit. Topuria gathers himself, as Herbert lets him off the hook and allows the Georgian to attack with winging punches. Herbert intercepts his man with a knee as Topuria comes in, and the mouthpiece goes flying again in a cinematic fashion. Topuria’s chin holds up, and the two lightweights furiously slug it out to the bell. What a round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 2
The second round begins with Topuria aggressive, stalking Herbert down and trying to take the Brit’s reach advantage away from him. Topuria wings a right hand that just misses as Herbert kicks the body, and Herbert ducks back by an inch to avoid the massive blow. Herbert aims an uppercut that comes up short, and he strafes back and forth while Topuria comes after him.
With bad intentions in his eyes, Topuria stalks Herbert down and wings a few punches at him. Herbert reaches out with a jab, and “El Matador” unleashes a right behind the ear, a thudding left to the body and an earthshattering right hand flush on the chin that sends Herbert collapsing to the ground in a crumpled heap.
As the crowd goes completely silent, Topuria walks away without bothering to deliver a follow-up blow, with Herbert out cold beneath him. Making the most of his post-fight interview moment, Topuria does not call for bonus money – his work should speak for itself – but instead sets his sights on “that blonde b---ch” Paddy Pimblett. Should Pimblett win later tonight, matchmakers can take the day off as that came together without them having to budge.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Jai Herbert R2 1:07 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria to win by stoppage, citing his well-rounded game and ability to win on the feet or via wrestling. He notes that Jai Herbert has been taken down multiple times by opponents like Moicano and Trinaldo, and expects Topuria to do the same. He plans to bet on an Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round submission. He notes Topuria is moving up a weight class on short notice and faces a massive size disadvantage, but he believes Topuria's grappling is elite and Jai Herbert has shown horrendous takedown defense and a weak chin. Brady expects Topuria to take the fight to the mat and submit Herbert quickly, as Herbert has little ground game and poor durability.
Cody picks Topuria as a lock, citing his superior grappling and Herbert's weak chin. He thinks Topuria can win by submission or KO, and notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He calls Topuria the top ticket.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria, but with reservations. He notes that Topuria has finished all his UFC fights in the first round except against a short-notice opponent, where he gassed. Levi believes Topuria's ground game is a huge advantage, as Herbert has poor wrestling and chin issues. However, he warns against overhyping Topuria, as Herbert has a puncher's chance with his reach and power. Levi expects a finish inside the distance.
Topuria should replicate what Moicano did to Herbert: get the fight to the ground and use superior jiu-jitsu for a finish. Herbert is a good striker but struggles against grapplers with heavy top pressure. 23 of 25 fights for these two haven't gone to decision, and that trend should continue. The fight doesn't go to decision at -350 is a better bet than Topuria straight. I'm picking Topuria via first-round submission.
Paul picks Topuria as a lock, emphasizing Herbert's defensive liabilities and Topuria's all-around game. He notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser punchers and that Topuria's grappling is a major threat. He agrees Topuria is the top ticket.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria but thinks the odds are too wide; he should be around -200. He notes Jai Herbert's weak chin and lack of physical strength, calling him a 'malnourished lightweight.' He believes Topuria's grappling and power will be too much, predicting a first-round TKO. He acknowledges an upset is possible but favors Topuria's skill set.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Hall | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Hall | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Hall | 18 of 32 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Hall | 18 of 32 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 24 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The next matchup is a highly anticipated featherweight tilt between the returning grappling wizard Hall (8-1, 4-0 UFC) against the unbeaten Spaniard Topuria (10-0, 2-0 UFC). Something’s gotta give between these two, with Hall’s last loss coming in 2006 while Topuria has yet to taste defeat. Referee Jason Herzog will be taking charge to make sure everything is above board, and a half-hearted glove touch is what we get to start the fight. Hall meets him in the center of the cage and backs away, circling around the cage while Topuria stalks him down. Hall lands the first strike, a kick to the body, and Topuria just looks at him. Hall pump-fakes a possible takedown to get a reaction out of the Spaniard, and he hits him with a spinning hook kick. Hall rolls for an Imanari roll to pursue a leg, and Topuria does not bite, kicks his outstretched leg a few times and lets him stand back up. Hall whiffs on a left hand, and another as he rolls for some sort of a tackle to grab Topuria’s leg. Once more, Topuria shrugs it off and lets Hall somersault around to miss. Hall’s fourth roll manages to snare Topuria, and he grabs Topuria’s glove to hold on to him but cannot keep him grounded. Hall rolls through and elbows Topuria in the side of the head, and Topuria takes his back and lands a few punches before breaking free. Hall walks into a few punches, and Topuria gets confident as he cracks Hall with a right hand. Hall flops to roll and take him down, and he lets Topuria wade into his guard but Topuria springs out of the way. Hall ducks a punch with his hands down, and he boots Topuria in the body twice. “The Wizard” rolls through a few more times, and Topuria never bites so the crowd begins to turn on him. The Spaniard stings him with a right hand, and Hall ducks down to roll and grab a heel but cannot get it. Hall continues to roll around and pop back up as if he were in a gymnastics class, and Topuria walks into a right hand but darts out of the way from yet another Hall roll. Hall connects with a spinning heel kick, and he dodges and weaves from any Topuria aggression. When Hall attempts another heel kick, Topuria closes the distance to bully Hall to the ground.
“El Matador” dives after him and stuns him with hammerfists, and his right hand starts to do damage as he continues to club Hall on the chin again and again. As Hall turns to his side, he has no where else to go and is trapped, and Topuria keeps smashing him in the face. The damage mounts until Hall is relieved of his consciousness, and Herzog steps in to stop the fight.
This is a huge win for the undefeated Topuria, who may have just earned a spot on the rankings with a smart performance.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Ryan Hall R1 4:47 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Topuria, believing the sport has passed Hall by. He notes Topuria has superior wrestling, traditional jiu-jitsu, and striking. He doesn't see Hall catching Topuria in a submission. He agrees with the DraftKings price and odds.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision. He notes Topuria is good everywhere, a great striker with power, a solid wrestler, and a black belt in BJJ. He thinks Topuria can close the distance and keep the fight on the feet, avoiding Hall's guard. He acknowledges Hall's tricky style and underrated striking, but believes Topuria's youth, activity, and game plan will prevail. He mentions a possible knockout but leans decision.
Cody picks Topuria, citing his body work, power, and takedown defense. He notes Hall's dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Topuria's striking and physicality will be too much. He expects Topuria to win by decision or TKO.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win. He respects Ryan Hall's unique leglock game and spin kicks, but believes Topuria's confidence, youth, and well-rounded skills will neutralize Hall. He notes that Topuria has knockout power, good grappling, and heart, as shown when he got dropped and came back to win. He worries that Topuria's overconfidence could lead him to engage on the mat, but thinks he has the goods to win. He finds the plus 200 on Hall tempting but sticks with Topuria.
Jacob is extremely confident in Hall, calling it his most confident lock of the week ever. He believes Hall's unorthodox jiu-jitsu and kicks will lead to a submission. He notes Hall's ability to incorporate kicks to set up takedowns and that nobody wants to fight him. He plans to bet on Hall at plus odds.
I'm going with Topuria by KO. He is a young, hot prospect with great grappling and striking. Hall is wild and unorthodox, but Topuria's striking is much better. Topuria can also grapple with Hall if needed. I think Topuria will land a knockout after accumulating damage, probably in the second or third round. I like Topuria inside the distance and by KO.
Paul picks Topuria, noting his well-rounded skills, youth, and improvement. He thinks Topuria's takedown defense and striking will neutralize Hall's jiu-jitsu. He expects Topuria to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.
The Guru predicts Topuria will win by first-round KO. He expects Hall to dive for leg locks and use imanari rolls, but Topuria will escape and kick Hall's leg while Hall is on his back. Hall will get back up and throw wheel kicks, but each time Topuria will close the distance and smother him. Topuria will work the body throughout, causing Hall to hunch over. Then Topuria will land a lead left hook to the body followed by a right hand over the top to knock Hall out.
Charles Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 73 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 50 of 66 | 75% | 110 of 137 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 | 0 | 20:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 24 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 25 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 24 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 26 of 45 | 57% | 18 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 50 of 66 | 75% | 37 of 51 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 13 of 15 | 86% | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 14 | 64% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 11 | 81% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Charles has a clear grappling advantage and expects him to mix in takedowns to keep Max guessing, opening up his striking. He notes Max's all-time great volume and takedown defense, but believes the threat of takedowns will disrupt Max's rhythm. He calls it a slight lean, emphasizing that picks can change closer to the event.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira for the BMF belt. He acknowledges Holloway's durability may be declining after the Topuria KO and being hurt by Poirier, but still trusts it more than Oliveira's, who has been finished nine times and gets hurt in every fight. Holloway has good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Holloway to stuff takedowns, put a pace on Oliveira, hurt him, and finish by third-round KO. He also mentions an Underdog prop: Holloway under 94.5 significant strikes.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Holloway due to consistency, better boxing, and takedown defense. He mentions Holloway's durability and power at 155, and notes that Oliveira is dangerous but Holloway is the better all-around fighter. He predicts a first or second round knockout or a decision win.
Connor picks Max Holloway, citing Holloway's back-foot counterpunching and ability to control space, which neutralizes Oliveira's pressure. He notes Holloway's body punching from their first fight and his improved defensive wrestling, comparing the matchup to Islam Makhachev's win over Oliveira. Connor acknowledges Oliveira's toughness but believes Holloway's style is a nightmare for him.
Daniel Vreeland favors Max Holloway due to his elite cardio, volume striking, and historical preference in this matchup. He notes that Holloway sets significant strike records and has a proven track record, though he acknowledges Oliveira's dangerous submission threat and opportunistic finishing ability. Vreeland mentions that both fighters have been dropped recently, but he trusts Holloway's output down the stretch.
Holloway is the biggest bet of the year at 5 units. The host believes Holloway's superior striking volume (lands more than double the strikes per minute) and 83% takedown defense will neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Oliveira to be competitive early but fade, with Holloway pulling away in later rounds. The host is surprised Holloway is not a bigger favorite, having placed the bet at 1.50 odds a week ago.
Lucrative James picks Max Holloway because he believes Holloway is the far superior striker with better distance control and volume. He notes that Oliveira's path to victory relies on hurting Holloway and jumping on a submission, but considers that a low-probability outcome. James also highlights Holloway's increased power at lightweight and his stylistic adaptation to fighting on the outside, while Oliveira's durability issues and tendency to get hurt make him vulnerable. He sees Holloway winning by TKO or decision, with the fight likely ending inside the distance.
Holloway should stop Oliveira's grappling and outwork him on the feet with volume. Oliveira needs a kick-heavy game to slow Holloway, but Holloway's jab and pressure will win rounds. The fight likely goes to decision, but the line is too high; Holloway should be closer to -150.
Paul picks Max Holloway, citing his superior boxing, technical abilities, and takedown defense. He notes that Holloway's volume and power at 155 lbs are key, and that Oliveira is hittable. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but believes Holloway wins more often than not, possibly by knockout or accumulation of strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will take Holloway's shots and eventually submit him. He argues Oliveira has better wins (e.g., Poirier in his prime, Gaethje) and improved wrestling. He predicts a rear-naked choke in round two, citing Oliveira's power and grappling advantage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Max Holloway. He emphasizes Holloway's body punching and back-foot countering as key, and notes that Oliveira struggles against fighters who can pressure him off the back foot, as seen in the Makhachev fight. Zane also mentions Holloway's excellent takedown defense, though he is curious to see it tested against Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 18 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:35 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 42 | 42% | 16 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 35 | 40% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.
James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.
Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.
Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)
Round 1
One way or another, lightweight history will be made tonight. Either Topuria (16-0, 8-0 UFC) will become the first undefeated two-division champ in UFC history, or Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC; 23-10, 1 NC UFC) will serve as the first two-time 155-pound king. The finish rates of the two are high, excitement is higher and the
fighter
that was
electrocuted in Thailand
on Sunday at a Weed Boxing show may be the highest. Locked and loaded, referee Marc Goddard has got this. Before the mayhem begins, the 155ers vying for the vacant throne share a respectful fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Oliveira is quick to deliver a hard leg kick, and they get right to swinging. Both men tag one another immediately, with the former lightweight champ hitting harder but suffering a cut on the eye. Oliveira rushes forward to grab hold of Topuria, searching for a body lock takedown. Oliveira tries to throw Topuria to the mat, but he ends up falling to his back. Blood flows from the eyebrow of “Do Bronxs,” who latches onto a leglock that drags Topuria to the floor. Topuria scrambles wildly to get his leg out, turning towards the Brazilian and exploding his way up. He slaps Oliveira with a few low kicks to either side, until Goddard tells Oliveira to stand. Topuria lets loose with swinging fists, and Oliveira clinches and throws him to the wall. Oliveira dips and delivers an uppercut on the chin, and Topuria goes to the body. Topuria’s power is maximum, as he unleashes a thunderous right hook and a lightning bolt left that sends Oliveira collapsing to the floor, completely unconscious. Before Goddard can get between them, Topuria hammers the nail with a couple brutal, unnecessary hammerfists. The snoozing Oliveira’s eyes stare into the void, and the void stares back into him until he regains consciousness.
While Oliveira has been stopped with strikes before, including taking a one-hitter quitter from Cub Swanson in 2012, no one has done that to the Brazilian at 155 pounds. The vacancy of the lightweight belt is now filled, and it is in the arms of “El Matador.” Topuria called his shot perfectly, claiming before the match that he would knock out Oliveira in the first round. He did just that, and the next question is who will be next for him. Three awaiting contenders are shown in the crowd: Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett and Arman Tsarukyan. Topuria calls out Pimblett specifically, and declares, “If you think you are ready, come on you blonde b--ch.” Pimblett jumps out of the crowd to hurry into the cage, and politely gives Topuria credit for the hellacious knockout while patting him on the shoulder. “Paddy the Baddy” then announces that he will finish Topuria, and that “El Matador” could not knock him out. Topuria shoves Pimblett as dollar signs flash in the eyes of UFC executives, with the company apparently matching the fight right now. If that fight does materialize, it will be a big one, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira R1 2:27 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he believes Topuria's boxing, footwork, and wrestling are superior to Charles Oliveira's. He notes that Oliveira has been rocked in almost every fight, while Topuria has only been dropped once and recovered to win. He acknowledges that Oliveira is a great grappler but thinks Topuria's wrestling is better and his hands are cleaner. He is slightly concerned about Topuria's size at lightweight but thinks he will get the job done.
Big Brady believes this is a bad matchup for Oliveira, citing Topuria's excellent takedown defense and power. He notes Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights and Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has faced. Brady thinks the fight will stay standing, where Topuria will land big shots and potentially finish early. He also mentions that referee Mark Goddard is quick to stop fights, which favors Topuria. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor sees this as a bad stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira's losses come against fighters who aren't afraid to grapple with him and who pressure him, both of which describe Topuria. He also highlights Topuria's body punching and pressure fighting as key advantages, and believes Topuria's wrestling defense is sufficient to neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Topuria to finish Oliveira relatively quickly, either by knockout or by dominating on the ground.
The host believes Topuria can walk Oliveira down and land big power shots, setting up a knockout. He also notes Topuria might look to take the fight to the ground to submit the UFC submission leader, but ultimately expects a knockout victory.
The host picks Ilia Topuria by TKO, citing his crisp boxing, power, and ability to hurt Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira gets hurt by everyone and that Topuria's compact style will be difficult for Oliveira to grapple with. He predicts multiple knockdowns leading to a finish late in the first round.
Zane agrees that Topuria is a bad matchup for Oliveira. He points out that Oliveira's game relies on fear and aggression, and if an opponent doesn't respect his grappling, Oliveira can be beaten. He notes that Topuria is a pressure fighter who is comfortable in the pocket and has good takedown defense. Zane also mentions that Oliveira looked slower and more cautious in his last fight against Chandler, which is a worrying sign. He expects Topuria to win, possibly by knockout or by outgrappling Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 88 of 122 | 72% | 117 of 153 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 84 of 113 | 74% | 150 of 181 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 35 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 35 | 68% | 27 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 38 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 41 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 40 of 47 | 85% | 52 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 88 of 122 | 72% | 56 of 82 | 18 of 25 | 14 of 15 | 67 of 98 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 19 |
| Michael Chandler | 84 of 113 | 74% | 59 of 85 | 16 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 60 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 11 of 16 | 68% | 4 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 8 of 9 | 88% | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 24 of 35 | 68% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Michael Chandler | 15 of 22 | 68% | 11 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 27 of 36 | 75% | 21 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Michael Chandler | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Charles Oliveira | 14 of 18 | 77% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Michael Chandler | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Charles Oliveira | 12 of 17 | 70% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 40 of 47 | 85% | 30 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Angelo picks Charles Oliveira but is hesitant. He acknowledges Chandler's incredible shape and the possibility of a smart game plan, but trusts Oliveira's well-rounded game and the fact that he already beat Chandler. He warns against putting Oliveira in parlays due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira by second-round submission. He expects Chandler to hurt Oliveira early, as he often gets dropped, but believes Oliveira's heart and durability will carry him through. He notes that Chandler fades in later rounds and has poor submission defense, as seen against Dustin Poirier. He predicts Oliveira will survive the first round and submit Chandler in the second.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira, expecting him to weather Chandler's early storm and finish him in the second round. He notes Chandler's athletic but low-volume style leads to gassing, and Oliveira is a zombie who fights better after getting dropped. Cody predicts Oliveira by submission or knockout inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor also picks Oliveira but with hesitation, noting that Chandler has the power to knock him out and that Oliveira's chin may be fading. He points out that Oliveira's comeback ability is key, but Chandler's aggression could overwhelm him. Connor thinks Oliveira's submission threat and durability give him the edge, but it's a toss-up.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Oliveira, arguing that Chandler redlines early and if he doesn't finish Oliveira, Oliveira will come back and finish him. He highlights Oliveira's calf kicks, submission threats off his back, and ability to extend his records. He notes Chandler's tendency to fade and make mistakes, as seen in the Poirier fight.
Vreeland picks Oliveira because Chandler has a long layoff and was preparing for Conor McGregor, a completely different fighter. He notes that even in their first fight, Chandler's early success faded as he walked into punches and submissions. Vreeland believes Chandler will be rusty and Oliveira's durability and ground game will be too much.
Fox picks Oliveira, noting that Chandler's UFC record is poor (2-3) and he has been inactive. He believes Oliveira is better in all aspects at this point and that Chandler's obsession with McGregor hurt his preparation. Fox is confident Oliveira wins.
Lucrative James picks Charles Oliveira to win but is hesitant, noting the line (-275) may be too wide. He acknowledges Chandler's power and explosivity, and that Chandler almost finished Oliveira in their first fight. However, he believes Oliveira has more tools—better striking at all ranges, brutal clinch work, and superior submission grappling—and a better gas tank for five rounds. He also mentions Chandler's fragile chin and tendency to get hurt, but admits Chandler has a good shot and the odds (+225) are disrespectful.
The host recalls Chandler's success in the first round of their first fight, getting two 10-8s, but ultimately getting knocked out early in the second. He believes Oliveira still holds all the advantages but can be touched up. He loves the under 1.5 rounds and leans Oliveira, but notes Chandler as an underdog above +200 is worth considering.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, noting Chandler's two-year layoff and 1-3 record in his last four. He expects Chandler to have a good first round but fade, and Oliveira to find a finish. Paul mentions the gloves change might affect submissions but still likes Oliveira inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, predicting a rear-naked choke in the first or second round. He believes Chandler makes too many mistakes and that Oliveira will catch a kick and take him down. He notes Chandler's inactivity and age as factors.
Zane picks Oliveira but is hesitant, acknowledging that Chandler could easily knock him out. He notes that Oliveira's style is high-risk and he often gets hurt before recovering, and that Chandler's power and aggression make this a dangerous fight. Zane believes Oliveira's durability and ability to find submissions will prevail, but it's not a confident pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 33 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 1 | 2:32 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 49 of 83 | 59% | 75 of 117 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 8:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:42 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 38 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:48 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 19 of 37 | 51% | 11 of 22 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 |
| Charles Oliveira | 49 of 83 | 59% | 37 of 69 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 23 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Oliveira | 22 of 36 | 61% | 19 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 16 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 5 of 17 | 29% | 2 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 31 | 58% | 12 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, comparing him to Islam Makhachev with slightly better striking and slightly worse wrestling. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be too much for Oliveira, similar to how Islam submitted him. He notes the public heavily favors Oliveira but the oddsmakers have Tsarukyan as favorite for a reason.
Cody believes Charles Oliveira's defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Oliveira takes a lot of damage and relies on comebacks, which is unsustainable. Tsarukyan is a strong wrestler with good takedown defense (only taken down by Islam Makhachev and a former KSW champion). Cody thinks Oliveira won't be able to take Tsarukyan down, forcing a striking battle where Tsarukyan's power and youth will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's impressive physique and recent knockout of Beneil Dariush. Cody sees Tsarukyan as the fresher, ascending fighter who will eventually land a big right hand and finish Oliveira.
Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, agreeing with guest Giani that Tsarukyan's wrestling and pressure will be key. He notes that Tsarukyan is younger, has a comparable style to Islam Makhachev, and will not hesitate to follow Oliveira to the ground. Vreeland believes Oliveira's submission threat is real but Tsarukyan's top control and ground-and-pound will win rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, noting that the line is a bit wide but he likes Tsarukyan's youth and finishing ability. He mentions that Tsarukyan's grappling and wrestling are top-notch, and that Oliveira will struggle to get takedowns. He also notes that Tsarukyan has power on the feet and less mileage than Oliveira.
Jeff Fox picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing that the only fighters who have given Oliveira trouble are exceptional wrestlers. He notes that Oliveira's takedown game won't be enough against Tsarukyan's wrestling, and that Tsarukyan's kickboxing will take over. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's scrambles with Islam Makhachev on short notice show his level.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions that bookmakers expect Arman Tsarukyan to win as a decent favorite, and that if he wins, a rematch with Islam Makhachev is likely. He calls it a banger but does not state his own prediction.
Tsarukyan will nullify Oliveira's grappling and his submission defense will keep Oliveira in bad positions. Tsarukyan's big power on the feet will find Oliveira's chin and knock him out within two rounds.
Paul sees Tsarukyan as the fresher fighter with fewer miles. He notes that Tsarukyan's short-notice fight against Islam Makhachev was competitive and looks good in hindsight. Paul points out that Tsarukyan has a good chin and has only been knocked out once, early in his career. He expects Charles to come out hot and have early success, but Tsarukyan will weather the storm and take over. Paul also mentions that if Tsarukyan scores takedowns, he must be careful of Oliveira's guard, but he believes Tsarukyan's youth and power will be the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to submit Arman Tsarukyan via guillotine in round one. He believes Oliveira will wobble Tsarukyan with a left hook, prompting a panicked takedown attempt that Oliveira will capitalize on. He dismisses Tsarukyan's grappling credentials, noting he was wobbled by Walkin Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 26 of 36 | 72% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
| Beneil Dariush | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 26 of 36 | 72% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
| Beneil Dariush | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dariush (-140), Oliveira (+120)
Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because a fight many fans and observers circled on their calendars is about to happen. Former champ Oliveira (33-9, 1 NC; 21-9, 1 NC UFC), fresh off losing his belt to Islam Makhachev, is aiming to bounce back from that submission loss. Across from him is the surging Dariush (22-4-1, 16-4-1 UFC), who has strung eight impressive wins together to earn this potential no. 1 contender matchup. While unfortunately only scheduled for three rounds, the two top lightweights might not need that long. Referee Jason Herzog earns the honor of officiating this co-main attraction, and the combatants respectfully bump fists first. Oliveira reaches out with a front kick, and as he does, Dariush kicks his lead leg. Oliveira walks straight into the fire, throwing a head kick and shaking Dariush up, and the two trade furious strikes. The two wind up clashing together, chest to chest, and Oliveira looks to lift Dariush and dump him to the mat but ends up falling to his back. Dariush sits in the close guard and lands a few punches, and Oliveira actively pushes off the chest and uses upkicks. Oliveira attacks with hammerfists while Dariush is striking him from above, and the blows from Dariush are heavier. Oliveira pursues a leglock, and he hooks Dariush’ leg beneath his armpit. Dariush stands up, and he slips his foot out and meanders back into Oliveira’s guard. Dariush swings hard down at his opponent, and he punches the floor a few times with Oliveira swaying back and forth. Oliveira kicks off with upkicks again, and Dariush settles to return to the closed guard, smacking the Brazilian with hammerfists and punches. Dariush avoids any traps, but Oliveira bursts back to his feet and knees his man in the chest. Oliveira abandons the clinch and boots Dariush in the head. Dariush is stung from that and a subsequent left hand, and he knocks Dariush to his knees with a clubbing right hand behind the ear. Dariush drops to go after a takedown, and when that fails, he rolls with desperation with for some kind of leglock. “Do Bronx” pushes right past it and slams his fists down on Dariush again and again. Dariush tries to turn to his side, but his bell is rung and Oliveira is not about to let him off the hook. The punches continue to mount for the Brazilian, who will not stop until Herzog pulls him off. As he keeps beating down the Kings MMA fighter, Herzog has no choice but to wave the fight off. The former champ peels off to jump atop the cage and soak it in as the deafening crowd showers him with cheers and affection. Oliveira climbs back down to embrace his fallen foe, and then he leaps out of the cage to go hug someone in the crowd. This is a statement performance for Oliveira, who claims his 20th finish as a UFC fighter, which adds to his own record. Lightweights will not likely going to line up wanting to face him next, and he has just one goal in mind: he wants his belt back, calling out Islam Makhachev and offering to the UFC brass that he will fight Makhachev on his home soil.
The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Beneil Dariush R1 4:10 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Beneil Dariush, having placed 1.5 units on him at -125. He argues that Dariush is the better wrestler and grappler, and that his no-gi BJJ world championship credentials give him an edge. He believes Dariush can avoid Charles Oliveira's submission threats by staying controlled and not creating scrambles. He thinks Dariush's power and wrestling will be key.
Big Brady picks Beneil Dariush to finish Charles Oliveira in the first round. He notes that Dariush has the wrestling to dictate where the fight goes and has heavy hands. Oliveira is hittable and has been dropped in recent fights. Dariush's power and grappling should overwhelm Oliveira early. He predicts a knockdown followed by a submission or TKO.
Cody picks Beneil Dariush despite being a fan of Oliveira. He argues that Dariush is a thinking man's fighter with high ring IQ, underrated power, and a nasty liver kick. He notes that Oliveira's reckless approach and durability issues (gets knocked down often) play into Dariush's precision. He also believes Dariush's wrestling and BJJ are good enough to grapple with Oliveira, and he can win standing or on the ground. He expects the fight to end inside the distance.
Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He believes Dariush can out-grapple Oliveira and that Oliveira's submission threat is overrated. He notes that Dariush is willing to grapple and has the skills to neutralize Oliveira's guard. However, he acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's power and chaos.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush in a coin-toss fight, citing momentum and Dariush's time to get a title shot. He notes that Dariush has paid his dues and is on a win streak, while Oliveira has been dropped in his last three fights. He believes Dariush will not be afraid to follow Oliveira to the ground, unlike previous opponents, and that Dariush's calm, pressure-based Jiu-Jitsu can neutralize Oliveira's non-stop attacking style. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's offensive potency and the possibility of Dariush getting hurt.
James picks Beneil Dariush, believing Oliveira's time at the top is done. He thinks Dariush's distance control with his left kick and technical striking can make Oliveira look amateur on the feet, similar to how Islam Makhachev did. He also believes Dariush can get takedowns and has elite jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions. However, he notes Dariush's chin is vulnerable and he could be dragged into a brawl, where Oliveira has an edge. James sees Dariush winning by decision or submission, and considers the moneyline value good.
Dariush has a well-rounded game with improved striking and excellent defensive grappling. Oliveira is dangerous everywhere but has shown vulnerability to pressure and wrestling. Dariush's ability to stuff takedowns and land on the feet should lead to a finish, likely by KO. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play given both fighters' finishing rates.
Paul leans toward Dariush, citing his technical striking and smart approach. He thinks Oliveira could do crazy things early, but once Dariush susses out the situation, he will take over and find his advantage. Paul is not betting this fight but is interested in a PrizePicks play on under 1.5 takedowns for Dariush, reasoning that Dariush may not want to go to the ground with Oliveira.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Charles Oliveira, despite wanting Oliveira to win. He notes Dariush's consistent recent performances, great takedown defense, and improving hands. He worries about Oliveira's tendency to get dropped and his injury layoff. He believes Dariush can control where the fight goes and may finish or win a decision.
Zane also picks Dariush, emphasizing that if Dariush can scramble with Oliveira on the ground, he can win. He notes that Dariush's defensive wrestling and scrambling were impressive against Gamrot and Ferreira. He acknowledges the danger of Oliveira's striking but believes Dariush's grappling advantage is key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 72 of 86 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 19 of 39 | 48% | 7 of 23 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 41 | 73% | 25 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Charles Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 23 | 78% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.
Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.
Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.
Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.
Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.
Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 33 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 33 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 47 | 63% | 18 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 34 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Justin Gaethje | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 30 of 47 | 63% | 18 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 34 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Justin Gaethje | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oliveira (-165), Gaethje (+145)
Round 1
For the first time in UFC history, a defending champion missed weight, when
Oliveira
(32-8, 1 NC; 20-8, 1 NC UFC) could not reach the lightweight championship limit and hit the scales at 155.5 pounds. As a result, the title has been stripped from the Brazilian, and only
Gaethje
(23-3, 6-3 UFC) is eligible to win it. Should Oliveira get his hand raised, he will serve as the number one contender and will fight for the vacant belt at a later date. Many had already circled this matchup on their calendar as must-see TV given the excitement quotient that each provides, and the weigh-in drama added yet another layer of intrigue to the pairing. Getting things started will be referee Marc Goddard, who brings them to the center of the cage, issues the formalities and instructs the fighters to touch gloves. They do. With that, the fight is on, and buckle up. The first strike comes in 10 seconds with a leg kick, and they both crack one another with right hands to hurt one another. Oliveira stings him again in the clinch, and Gaethje backs off and lets fly another leg kick. Gaethje knocks the ex-champ clean off his feet, and he stands back to let Oliveira stand back up. When the Brazilian gets back up, Gaethje chops down his lead leg and nails him with a right hand that drops Oliveira again. Oliveira is swollen and bleeding from multiple places on the head, and Oliveira works his way back up to his feet. Gaethje gathers himself and absorbs a flush knee to the body, while Gaethje slings a right hand for all his worth. Gaethje gets stung and fights back, and Oliveira tries for a standing guillotine but gets pushed off. Oliveira closes the distance, jumps guard with a guillotine, and Gaethje shrugs him off and powers out of the position. They both stand back up, and Oliveira clips the challenger with a right hand. Oliveira leaps in the air with a front kick, and chants for “USA” rain down for the Arizona native. Gaethje blocks a knee, gets blasted with a right hand, and the right sends “The Highlight” crashing to the mat in big trouble. Oliveira gives chase, and he jumps on to snatch up the back and latch on to a choke. Gaethje bucks him off, fights off an armbar setup and rolls to his knees. The mighty move is for naught, as he gets yanked back down by Oliveira. This time, "Do Bronx" has Gaethje’s back on lock, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The arm slides beneath Gaethje’s chin, and Gaethje is in serious danger now and struggling to fight the grip. As Gaethje gasps for breath, he decides to tap out instead of going out like when he fought Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Oliveira has done it. He has survived the toughest that Gaethje could offer, suffering two knockdowns, coming back to drop Gaethje and land the submission in remarkable fashion. The UFC lightweight title is officially still vacant, with Oliveira as the current number one contender, and he will face an undetermined challenger in the future. With any luck, it will be a top active fighter like Islam Makhachev, and not a famous but undeserving person on a losing streak to slot in with hopes of selling pay-per-views. Oliveira declares that the lightweight champion does have a name, and his name is Charles Oliveira. Whoever Oliveira fights next, that man will truly have his hands full, as Oliveira is a force to be reckoned with. When he competes again for his old belt, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Justin Gaethje R1 3:22 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, believing his volume and chin will overwhelm Oliveira. He argues that Oliveira's submissions are off the table because Gaethje won't go to the ground, and that Gaethje's forward pressure will wear Oliveira down. He acknowledges Oliveira's technical striking but thinks Gaethje's style is a bad matchup for him.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by second-round submission. He believes Oliveira will weather Gaethje's early storm, pressure him against the cage, and drag the fight to the mat where Oliveira's elite BJJ will take over. He notes that Gaethje has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Khabib fight, and that Oliveira has improved his cardio and durability, surviving early adversity against Chandler and Poirier. Brady thinks the striking is competitive but that Oliveira has more paths to victory, while Gaethje's main path is a first-round knockout.
Cody leans towards Charles Oliveira but is hesitant due to the -165 price tag. He notes that Oliveira has been hurt in recent fights (by Chandler and Poirier) but has shown heart to come back. Cody believes Gaethje's wild, reckless style creates openings for Oliveira's takedowns and submissions. He points out Gaethje's takedown defense is only 77% and that Oliveira took down Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier easily. However, Cody is concerned about Gaethje's cardio and durability, and plans to hedge if he gets far into the parlay.
Daniel Levi picks Charles Oliveira but is very hesitant, acknowledging that he sees a different outcome every time these two fight. He notes Oliveira's offensive brilliance and improved mental fortitude, but worries about his defensive liabilities, especially against Gaethje's leg kicks and power. He says he leans with the favorite because Oliveira has more paths to victory, but he is not betting the fight himself. He respects the value on Gaethje at plus 150 odds and understands why anyone would take the dog.
The host picks Charles Oliveira to win, likely by submission in the second round. He highlights Oliveira's finishing ability and record 15 UFC submission wins. He expects Oliveira to check leg kicks, stun Gaethje, and take the fight to the ground. He prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at -150, noting that only one of Oliveira's last 16 fights went over 2.5. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and durability but believes Oliveira's adversity-fighting has improved. He is not betting Oliveira moneyline due to the line being too wide.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will eventually find his spot and get a submission. He notes that Oliveira doesn't necessarily need a takedown, but if he gets it to the ground, his BJJ is unmatched. Paul prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -145, expecting either Gaethje to melt Oliveira early or Oliveira to grab a submission. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and toughness but trusts Oliveira's finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, citing Gaethje's lack of jiu-jitsu awareness as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira will use a rangier game, mixing in kicks and takedowns, and eventually take Gaethje's back and choke him out in the first round. He notes Gaethje may be overthinking due to the title fight pressure and the threat of the takedown. He predicts a standing rear-naked choke.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he believes Topuria's boxing, footwork, and wrestling are superior to Charles Oliveira's. He notes that Oliveira has been rocked in almost every fight, while Topuria has only been dropped once and recovered to win. He acknowledges that Oliveira is a great grappler but thinks Topuria's wrestling is better and his hands are cleaner. He is slightly concerned about Topuria's size at lightweight but thinks he will get the job done.
Big Brady believes this is a bad matchup for Oliveira, citing Topuria's excellent takedown defense and power. He notes Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights and Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has faced. Brady thinks the fight will stay standing, where Topuria will land big shots and potentially finish early. He also mentions that referee Mark Goddard is quick to stop fights, which favors Topuria. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor sees this as a bad stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira's losses come against fighters who aren't afraid to grapple with him and who pressure him, both of which describe Topuria. He also highlights Topuria's body punching and pressure fighting as key advantages, and believes Topuria's wrestling defense is sufficient to neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Topuria to finish Oliveira relatively quickly, either by knockout or by dominating on the ground.
The host believes Topuria can walk Oliveira down and land big power shots, setting up a knockout. He also notes Topuria might look to take the fight to the ground to submit the UFC submission leader, but ultimately expects a knockout victory.
The host picks Ilia Topuria by TKO, citing his crisp boxing, power, and ability to hurt Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira gets hurt by everyone and that Topuria's compact style will be difficult for Oliveira to grapple with. He predicts multiple knockdowns leading to a finish late in the first round.
Zane agrees that Topuria is a bad matchup for Oliveira. He points out that Oliveira's game relies on fear and aggression, and if an opponent doesn't respect his grappling, Oliveira can be beaten. He notes that Topuria is a pressure fighter who is comfortable in the pocket and has good takedown defense. Zane also mentions that Oliveira looked slower and more cautious in his last fight against Chandler, which is a worrying sign. He expects Topuria to win, possibly by knockout or by outgrappling Oliveira.
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