UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Next Fight
Age 23
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Elijah Smith
4.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.96 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
2.98 TD Avg
53.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Toshiomi Kazama
1.49 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.56 SApM
38.0% Str. Def.
1.94 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Elijah Smith
Moneyline
BetWay -649
KO/TKO
BetRivers -200
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
FanDuel +430
Toshiomi Kazama
Moneyline
Caesars +575
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2700
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
Unibet +1700
Elijah Smith - Fight History
WIN vs You Su-young
Submission R2 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elijah Smith 1 16 of 27 59% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:35
You Su-young 0 3 of 3 100% 21 of 27 4 of 8 50% 0 0 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elijah Smith 0 3 of 6 50% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:19
You Su-young 0 1 of 1 100% 18 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:42
2 Elijah Smith 1 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
You Su-young 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elijah Smith 16 of 27 59% 14 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 13 3 of 3 8 of 11
You Su-young 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elijah Smith 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
You Su-young 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Elijah Smith 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 11
You Su-young 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith but is worried about takedown defense against a relentless wrestler. He notes that Smith is more powerful, faster, and well-rounded, but Su-young's constant takedown threats could be problematic. He thinks Vegas may not reward wrestling, so Smith could win even if taken down multiple times. He is not betting the moneyline but may look at props.

"I am picking Elijah Smith here. I'm probably not going to bet money line or parlay him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, believing Smith will stuff takedowns and be the better striker. He acknowledges Smith's takedown defense (57%) is a concern but notes his improved submission defense and ability to battle adversity. He favors Smith's volume, power, and cleaner striking on the feet.

"give me Smith here. Give me Smith here to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Cody picks Smith, citing his youth, athleticism, and wrestling. He notes Su-young's age and limited ceiling. He expects Smith to win a close decision or get a finish.

Smith by decision
"It's Elijah Smith and uh I think it goes to decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Connor also picks Smith, emphasizing that Smith has real physicality and the rumblings of a natural pocket fighter. He notes that You's wrestling is legit but Smith has the physicality to force scrambles and may shut down takedowns. Connor sees Smith's potential as higher.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

James picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, but admits he hasn't done enough tape study and is not very confident. He notes Smith's boxing advantage and athleticism but worries about his fight IQ and tendency to engage in grappling. He believes Smith can win if he keeps the fight on the feet.

"my official prediction will be Elijah Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host favors Elijah Smith due to his speed, strength, and well-roundedness. He expects Smith to defend Su-young's grappling and keep the fight standing, where his striking combinations and power will be decisive. He predicts Smith will land the more damaging shots and win a decision, noting that Smith's grappling defense and ability to counter leg kicks will be key.

"I think Smith is the faster, stronger fighter. I think you'll be able to land his combinations and really hurt you throughout this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

Paul leans Su-young as a dog, citing his experience and ring IQ. He thinks Su-young can exploit Smith's mistakes and win a close decision. He notes the fight is tricky.

"tempted uh to say another dogger pass spot here, just edging it out, being way too close for comfort."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Elijah Smith

The Guru picks Elijah Smith, rating his win over Vince Morales and noting his patience and size advantage (6-inch reach). He thinks Smith's athleticism and ability to go three rounds will overcome Su-young, who has fought close decisions against lesser competition. He predicts a decision, possibly a late TKO.

"I've got Elijah Smith taking this one... by decision. 30-27, maybe even a second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Elijah Smith, noting that Smith has real physicality and natural pocket awareness, while You is a finished product with less dynamism. He believes Smith can stop enough takedowns to win two out of three rounds, even if he gives up some takedowns. Zane sees Smith's potential as higher than You's.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
KO R1 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elijah Smith 0 37 of 46 80% 61 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:49
Toshiomi Kazama 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elijah Smith 0 37 of 46 80% 61 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:49
Toshiomi Kazama 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elijah Smith 37 of 46 80% 35 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 36 of 43
Toshiomi Kazama 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elijah Smith 37 of 46 80% 35 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 36 of 43
Toshiomi Kazama 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a good grappler with fast hands and solid power. He notes Toshiomi Kazama is a BJJ nerd with a questionable chin. Angelo thinks Smith will run through Kazama, as this is a tune-up fight for the prospect. He acknowledges the -500 odds are high but trusts Smith.

"Elijah's the pick. I'm very confident here. And minus 500."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a well-rounded fighter with a massive striking advantage over Kazama, whom he considers the worst striker in the division. He notes Smith's cardio has improved and he can grapple as well. Brady believes Smith will knock out Kazama early, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think Smith knocks him out and I think he knocks him out probably pretty early. Give me Elijah Smith to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host acknowledges Kazama's high-level BJJ but believes he struggles to get fights to the ground and will struggle even more against Smith. He expects Smith to use good movement, speed, and striking to line up a big knockout victory.

by KO
"Look for Smith to utilize good movement, speed, and striking and eventually lining up a big knockout victory to earn that win over Kazama."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith, calling Kazama a fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Smith's close fight with Vince Morales showed he can battle through adversity. He expects Smith to handle Kazama, though he's not sure if Smith will become a top prospect.

Bet on Elijah Smith fight time over 6.75 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think Elijah Smith is going to win against Toshi Kazama."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Smith because he is fast, powerful, tough, and resilient, having weathered storms against Vince Morales. He believes Smith can take Kazama's head off, though he notes Kazama's backtake game could be annoying if Smith doesn't force the fight.

Odds: Smith -700, Kazama +500. Zane notes it's a high chance of a prospect loss, but Smith should win.
"I think it should still be regarded to something as a toss-up but Elijah Smith is the guy with actual potential here."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vince Morales 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 90 2 of 4 50% 3 2 3:07
Elijah Smith 0 40 of 97 41% 52 of 110 3 of 4 75% 1 2 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vince Morales 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elijah Smith 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Vince Morales 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 8 2 of 3 66% 2 2 2:02
Elijah Smith 0 1 of 5 20% 7 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 2 2:08
3 Vince Morales 0 17 of 41 41% 17 of 42 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:05
Elijah Smith 0 20 of 49 40% 26 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vince Morales 40 of 86 46% 30 of 74 8 of 10 2 of 2 36 of 81 4 of 5 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 40 of 97 41% 29 of 81 2 of 3 9 of 13 37 of 94 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vince Morales 19 of 40 47% 13 of 33 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 19 of 43 44% 13 of 33 1 of 2 5 of 8 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Vince Morales 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vince Morales 17 of 41 41% 13 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 20 of 49 40% 15 of 43 1 of 1 4 of 5 18 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Smith (-180), Morales (+150)

Round 1
Speed kills at the lower divisions, and if their pasts are any indication, Morales (16-8, 3-6 UFC) and Smith (7-1, 0-0 UFC) would like nothing more than to clock out early and go home today. The former, currently on his second stint with the promotion, did just what any savvy fighter should do after a release: go to the regional circuit, rack up a bunch of wins in rapid succession and get a call back to the big leagues. In less than two years, Morales was in, out and in again. Referee Mark Smith will know first whether the decision to bring him back to the roster was a good idea. Gloves are not touched, and Morales is instead the aggressor as he backs Smith up to the cage. Smith presses back with a jab, and Morales dodges and moves while staying in Smith’s face. Smith prods his jabs to chain in an uppercut, snapping Morales’ head back and surprising him. Morales gathers his thoughts and keeps advancing, not cutting his foe off and drawing a finger wag from the newcomer. Smith lets go with a body kick, and when he slides away, Morales kicks him square in the groin. The clacking echo cutting through the arena, Smith collapses to the mat in serious trouble. Smith writhes in pain and slams his fist on the mat several times, and he returns to his feet a minute into the recovery time. Smith lowers himself back to a crouch as he is still greatly struggling to get his wind back, and referee Smith is attentive and giving the fighter updates as to his time. After two minutes and 45 seconds, Smith is ready to fight and claps hands with his foe to restart. Morales gets back to where he left off with pressure, and Smith sits down on a clean left hand counter that makes Morales’ nose match his red hair and shorts. Smith times a jump knee counter to clip Morales on the way in, missing by a matter of millimeters. Morales continues crowding the newcomer, until Smith frames off and his fingers slide into the eye socket. Referee Smith calls in the physician to check on Morales’ condition and help clear his vision, who complains that the poke affected both eyes. Right before the restart, Morales mentions that they are even, and they resume fighting with 2:15 to go in the round. Smith sticks out several sharp jabs to intercept Morales, only to get caught with two right hooks that shake him up. While Smith counters with a check left hook, Morales greets him with a right hand. The jabs of Smith have opened a cut around Morales’ mouth, but he pays it no mind as he hooks his right hand around the jab. Morales jabs his way into a counterattack, and Smith backs him away with a pair of chopping leg kicks. Smith is warned for outstretched fingers again, and Morales may have suffered another uncalled eye poke as he is struggling to blink out his left eye. While he is dealing with that, Smith shoots for an easy takedown he uses to throw “Vandetta” to the floor. What he doesn’t have is time, as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith

Round 2
The second round begins where the first left off, with Morales directly in Smith’s face putting heat on him. Morales does not crowd in recklessly, keeping his guard up to block a head kick or oncoming jabs. As Smith circles away, Morales catches him with a left hand that forces him to stick around in the clinch. Smith grabs hold of his foe and lifts him up like a Country Breakfast, embodying his inner Matt Hughes to carry his opponent around the cage to his corner. Smith scrambles to take the back, and he wraps up a rear-naked choke that is more of a face crank. Morales works his neck free and scrambles with a kimura sweep attempt to turn himself over. Smith stands up and finds himself stuck on his back suddenly when Morales dumps him to the floor. Morales snakes his arms around the neck to tie up a brabo choke, and he steps over to the side to try to complete the submission. Smith lays flat on his stomach before exploding the wrong direction, keeping himself calm and not exposing himself to greater danger. Morales keeps the choke wrapped up around the neck even as Smith wisely shifts through it, and the younger fighter survives the sub and claims top position. When Morales attempts to stand, Smith looks to drag him down from behind, and this results in Morales setting up another brabo choke. Morales drives a few knees into the chin before rolling all the way through for a Japanese necktie with his legs and arms wrapped up to lock up the unorthodox maneuver. Smith works his way out of the submission and stands up, slapping Morales on the side of the head and rolling through an attempted Morales throw to control him from behind at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
The fighters come out firing to open the last round, with Smith whiffing on haymakers immediately. Morales walks forward and feints to draw out reactions, and he strings combinations together as Smith does the same. The pace wanes as Smith does not appear to land these big strikes often, with his sharp, direct strikes far more effective. Smith rips an uppercut that shreds a cut on Morales’ nose, and he times the strike to shoot in for a double that puts Morales on his seat. While Morales works his way up, his nose is bent entirely the wrong direction and leaking all over the mat. There is no quit despite punches likely hurting far more than usual on the shattered nose, and Morales takes them flush and still cruises forward. Morales shoots for a takedown, forces a counter shot and lays on top of Smith’s back to go for a Japanese or perhaps Peruvian variation of the necktie. Morales bails on this sub and sways around to the back, but Smith explodes his way back up. Smith puts fists on face, blood spraying and Morales trying desperately to keep a stiff upper lip. Smith pokes and prods with jabs, and Morales points at the floor as if to lure Smith into a defense-free brawl. When Smith does not oblige, Morales chases after him lobbing big strikes at him. Smith defends a suplex by landing on his hands, and Morales shockingly grabs him from behind and wraps an unorthodox side-naked-slash-bulldog choke under the chin. Smith’s eyes go wide, as the choke is tight even though no hooks are in. Knowing time is on his side, Smith works Morales to the body until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Morales)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)

The Official Result
Elijah Smith def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith based on his non-stop wrestling, but he is hesitant because Smith is a UFC debutant with only eight fights. He notes that Vince Morales is a dog and has shown toughness. He does not bet this fight because of the uncertainty, but he leans Smith due to his wrestling.

"I am going to pick Elijah because of the wrestling specifically and because of the fact that I know he'll just shoot and then right behind it shoot again but I'm likely going to avoid betting here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Big Brady picks Morales as a dog, arguing Smith is too green with poor cardio and unproven striking. Morales has better cardio and striking, and Smith has slowed down in multiple fights. He notes the line is moving toward Morales, indicating public agreement.

Morales by decision
"give me Vince Morales here as a dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Vince Morales

Morales is more well-rounded and experienced. He will wear Smith down in the striking realm and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. Smith has the hardware but Morales gets the vet lesson win.

Morales by submission, round 2 or 3
"I think Morales will be able to wear Smith down stay competitive in the striking realm and eventually get to a submission game... look for Morales to wear Smith down and eventually find the submission in the second or third …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith over Vince Morales, citing Smith's prospect potential and impressive Contender Series performance. He notes Morales is a tricky veteran but old, and Smith showed grappling ability despite some weaknesses. He believes Smith's talent and UFC contract motivation will carry him.

"I'm going to go with Elijah Smith the prospect over Vince Morales"
Toshiomi Kazama - Fight History
LOSS vs Elijah Smith
KO R1 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elijah Smith 0 37 of 46 80% 61 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:49
Toshiomi Kazama 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elijah Smith 0 37 of 46 80% 61 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:49
Toshiomi Kazama 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elijah Smith 37 of 46 80% 35 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 36 of 43
Toshiomi Kazama 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elijah Smith 37 of 46 80% 35 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 36 of 43
Toshiomi Kazama 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a good grappler with fast hands and solid power. He notes Toshiomi Kazama is a BJJ nerd with a questionable chin. Angelo thinks Smith will run through Kazama, as this is a tune-up fight for the prospect. He acknowledges the -500 odds are high but trusts Smith.

"Elijah's the pick. I'm very confident here. And minus 500."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a well-rounded fighter with a massive striking advantage over Kazama, whom he considers the worst striker in the division. He notes Smith's cardio has improved and he can grapple as well. Brady believes Smith will knock out Kazama early, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think Smith knocks him out and I think he knocks him out probably pretty early. Give me Elijah Smith to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host acknowledges Kazama's high-level BJJ but believes he struggles to get fights to the ground and will struggle even more against Smith. He expects Smith to use good movement, speed, and striking to line up a big knockout victory.

by KO
"Look for Smith to utilize good movement, speed, and striking and eventually lining up a big knockout victory to earn that win over Kazama."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith, calling Kazama a fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Smith's close fight with Vince Morales showed he can battle through adversity. He expects Smith to handle Kazama, though he's not sure if Smith will become a top prospect.

Bet on Elijah Smith fight time over 6.75 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think Elijah Smith is going to win against Toshi Kazama."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Smith because he is fast, powerful, tough, and resilient, having weathered storms against Vince Morales. He believes Smith can take Kazama's head off, though he notes Kazama's backtake game could be annoying if Smith doesn't force the fight.

Odds: Smith -700, Kazama +500. Zane notes it's a high chance of a prospect loss, but Smith should win.
"I think it should still be regarded to something as a toss-up but Elijah Smith is the guy with actual potential here."
Submission (triangle choke) R2 1:55 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Toshiomi Kazama 0 2 of 5 40% 67 of 84 1 of 9 11% 1 1 4:19
Charalampos Grigoriou 1 26 of 38 68% 36 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Toshiomi Kazama 0 2 of 4 50% 31 of 46 1 of 8 12% 0 1 4:09
Charalampos Grigoriou 0 2 of 4 50% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
2 Toshiomi Kazama 0 0 of 1 0% 36 of 38 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:10
Charalampos Grigoriou 1 24 of 34 70% 29 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Toshiomi Kazama 2 of 5 40% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charalampos Grigoriou 26 of 38 68% 23 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 17 1 of 1 18 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Toshiomi Kazama 2 of 4 50% 2 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charalampos Grigoriou 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Toshiomi Kazama 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charalampos Grigoriou 24 of 34 70% 23 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charalampos Grigoriou

Angelo is confident in Grigoriou because Kazama is a grapple-first fighter who has failed to get his grappling going in the UFC, is chinny on the feet, and has back-to-back first-round TKO losses. Grigoriou has powerful leg kicks, solid grappling, and is being set up for success. This is one of Angelo's more confident picks on the card.

"Charlos should win here he is going to be the pick one of my more confident picks on the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charalampos Grigoriou

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Kazama's poor chin and Grigoriou's striking advantage. He notes Grigoriou's counter-grappling ability from training with high-level grapplers, and that Kazama's submission threats are unlikely to succeed. Cody expects a knockout.

"I got Gregor I don't know that uh the price makes a whole lot of sense just because like as you mentioned it's two fairly lower level guys Kazama I don't think should be in the UFC to begin with"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charalampos Grigoriou

Grigoriou has a clear striking advantage and should be able to touch up Kazama, who has been knocked out in his last two fights. However, Kazama is dangerous on the ground and could pull guard or find a submission. This is the least confident pick on the card, and the minus 220 price is not recommended.

Grigoriou by knockout
"I must say though this is probably my least confident prediction on the entire card and I would want none of that minus 220 especially if Kazama is successful as in wrapping him up and getting his grappling going"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charalampos Grigoriou

Paul picks Grigoriou despite the high price, citing Kazama's weak chin and one-dimensional grappling. He notes Grigoriou trains at Ray Longo's gym with better partners, has knockout power, and should win by KO. He took Grigoriou by inside the distance at minus 105.

Grigoriou by KO (inside the distance) at minus 105
"Garo by knockout I got at minus 105 yesterday it's like 262 to win 250 that's where I at on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charalampos Grigoriou

The MMA Guru picks Charalampos Grigoriou, calling him a 'can crusher' but better than Toshiomi Kazama. He notes Grigoriou's wins over Cameron Smotherman and Chris Dutenhoffer, while criticizing Kazama's poor striking defense and recent KO losses. He believes Grigoriou's striking will prevail, especially given Kazama's two consecutive KO defeats.

"I'm going to go with shos Gregorio because this guy is very can crushy you know he's not good at fighting he's very can he's very trash you know but um he's better than Toshi Ami Kazam"
TKO (punches) R1 4:16 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Garrett Armfield 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 1 45 of 77 58% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Garrett Armfield 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 1 45 of 77 58% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Garrett Armfield 15 of 31 48% 8 of 24 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 45 of 77 58% 36 of 67 9 of 10 0 of 0 40 of 68 0 of 0 5 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Garrett Armfield 15 of 31 48% 8 of 24 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 45 of 77 58% 36 of 67 9 of 10 0 of 0 40 of 68 0 of 0 5 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Garrett Armfield

Angelo sees Armfield as more well-rounded but notes that he often fights to his opponent's style instead of imposing his own. He acknowledges Kazama's slick BJJ and chin issues, but leans toward Armfield due to his technical striking and takedown defense. He is not betting on this fight, just watching.

"I am still gonna slightly gear it here because he's just a more well-rounded fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Toshiomi Kazama

Big Brady notes that Garrett Armfield has struggled with wrestlers and grapplers in his losses, being submitted twice. He sees Toshiomi Kazama as a dangerous grappler who can take the fight to the mat and submit Armfield. He also mentions the long flight to Singapore as a potential disadvantage for Armfield. He forgives Kazama for his quick loss to Rinya Nakamura and believes this is a winnable fight for him.

submission in round 2
"give me a toshiyami Kazama to win this fight I'll take him to win by second round submission in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Garrett Armfield

Cody picks Armfield, citing his well-rounded skills and training at Kill Cliff FC. He notes Kazama's chinny history and one-dimensional grappling. Cody expects Armfield to improve after moving to his natural weight class and training with top partners.

"I kind of been leaning him he's the actual mixed martial arts"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Garrett Armfield

Daniel picks Garrett Armfield, noting that he is faster, more accurate, and more technically sound. He mentions that Kazama has a terrible chin and is a one-trick pony with submissions. He is confident Armfield can keep the fight standing and win by striking. He bet 2 units at -147 and is confident in the pick, though he acknowledges the submission threat.

"I took Armfield at -147 a couple days ago I played him to win two units here's why"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Garrett Armfield

James picks Garrett Armfield as the better all-around MMA fighter. He believes Armfield is the superior striker and that Kazama's wrestling is not good enough to take Armfield down consistently. He notes Kazama's Jiu-Jitsu is a lower-percentage path from the bottom, and Armfield should be able to avoid submissions and win on the feet.

"I'm going with Garrett Armfield"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Garrett Armfield

The host describes Kazama as a BJJ black belt with poor striking who relies on pulling guard and sweeps. He believes Armfield will use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing and utilize his speed and striking advantage to damage Kazama. The host expects Armfield to eventually get a knockout due to accumulative damage, noting that Kazama leaves many openings.

"I think that was CRM field eventually get the finish here to get his hand raised by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Toshiomi Kazama

Paul picks Kazama as an underdog, citing the Asian fighter advantage in Singapore and jet lag concerns for Armfield. He notes Kazama's submission skills but acknowledges his poor chin. Paul is not confident but likes the value.

Kazama by submission +300
"I'm gonna be taking the Asian underdogs in Asian in uh China or in Singapore"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Garrett Armfield

The MMA Guru picks Garrett Armfield over Toshiomi Kazama, trusting the American regional scene and Kill Cliff FC training over Kazama's Japanese scene. He notes Armfield's tough debut against David Onama but believes he is more well-rounded. He criticizes Kazama's KO loss to a 2-2 opponent and unimpressive Road to UFC win. He predicts Armfield's superior substance of competition will prevail.

"I'm gonna trust a kill Cliff FC Prospect I'm going with Gara Armfield here over to Yoshi Kazama even if his record does look a little bit worse I think it's against better substance"
LOSS vs Rinya Nakamura
KO (punch) R1 0:33 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is high on Nakamura's world-class wrestling and knockout power. He thinks Kazama will struggle to take down a wrestler of Nakamura's caliber and will be knocked out early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like him to knock out toshiom in the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura inside the distance, calling him the best prospect on the card. He notes Nakamura's world-class wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He expects Nakamura to take Kazama down and finish, possibly by submission. He also considers a small sprinkle on Nakamura by submission at +800.

Nakamura inside the distance (-125); Nakamura by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"I took renya Nakamura inside the distance at minus 125... I'm considering adding him by submission because that's like plus 800"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Connor agrees, noting that Kazama's insistence on wrestling will play into Nakamura's strengths. He points out that Kazama's bag of tricks may not work against a superior athlete, and that Nakamura has shown rapid improvement. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Nakamura to showcase his development.

"It's easy to see why this is the big favorite matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura inside the distance, emphasizing his wrestling background and MMA upbringing. He notes Nakamura's ability to strike or grapple, and expects him to knock out Kazama. He thinks Kazama's guard-pulling style will not work against Nakamura's physicality.

"I think I think Nakamura knocks him out um doesn't submit him but either way we both like them we both like them inside the distance"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Zane highlights Nakamura's rapid improvement and wrestling background, noting that he has become a more aggressive combination puncher with natural instincts for pressuring. He contrasts this with Kazama, who is crafty but not a great athlete and tends to lose wrestling exchanges as fights go on. He believes Nakamura's higher ceiling and athleticism will prevail.

"A pretty straightforward pick for uh, the the super prospect in nakamura, yeah."
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a good grappler with fast hands and solid power. He notes Toshiomi Kazama is a BJJ nerd with a questionable chin. Angelo thinks Smith will run through Kazama, as this is a tune-up fight for the prospect. He acknowledges the -500 odds are high but trusts Smith.

"Elijah's the pick. I'm very confident here. And minus 500."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a well-rounded fighter with a massive striking advantage over Kazama, whom he considers the worst striker in the division. He notes Smith's cardio has improved and he can grapple as well. Brady believes Smith will knock out Kazama early, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think Smith knocks him out and I think he knocks him out probably pretty early. Give me Elijah Smith to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host acknowledges Kazama's high-level BJJ but believes he struggles to get fights to the ground and will struggle even more against Smith. He expects Smith to use good movement, speed, and striking to line up a big knockout victory.

by KO
"Look for Smith to utilize good movement, speed, and striking and eventually lining up a big knockout victory to earn that win over Kazama."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith, calling Kazama a fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Smith's close fight with Vince Morales showed he can battle through adversity. He expects Smith to handle Kazama, though he's not sure if Smith will become a top prospect.

Bet on Elijah Smith fight time over 6.75 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think Elijah Smith is going to win against Toshi Kazama."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Smith because he is fast, powerful, tough, and resilient, having weathered storms against Vince Morales. He believes Smith can take Kazama's head off, though he notes Kazama's backtake game could be annoying if Smith doesn't force the fight.

Odds: Smith -700, Kazama +500. Zane notes it's a high chance of a prospect loss, but Smith should win.
"I think it should still be regarded to something as a toss-up but Elijah Smith is the guy with actual potential here."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months ago

The most brutal slam of all time. Hopefully Toshiomi is alright in the coming weeks. He likes going for subs. Was going for legs locks ect. Elijah fence grabbed. Toshiiomi didnt let go of the triangle and paid the price.