vs
-172 +165
UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Next Fight
Age 24
Height 5' 3"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 3"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Iasmin Lucindo
3.22 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.8 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
2.28 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Angela Hill
5.37 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.02 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Iasmin Lucindo
Moneyline
FanDuel -172
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1200
Submission
Unibet +1150
Decision
FanDuel -105
Angela Hill
Moneyline
BetMGM +165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2200
Submission
BetMGM +2500
Decision
BetWay +200
Iasmin Lucindo - Fight History
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 72 of 151 47% 100 of 187 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:37
Angela Hill 0 64 of 110 58% 80 of 129 0 of 5 0% 1 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 27 of 68 39% 28 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Angela Hill 0 25 of 46 54% 26 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 28 of 50 56% 30 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Angela Hill 0 31 of 54 57% 38 of 63 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:46
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 33 51% 42 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Angela Hill 0 8 of 10 80% 16 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 72 of 151 47% 56 of 128 12 of 19 4 of 4 57 of 130 11 of 17 4 of 4
Angela Hill 64 of 110 58% 42 of 84 19 of 23 3 of 3 52 of 92 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 27 of 68 39% 19 of 57 6 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 58 5 of 10 0 of 0
Angela Hill 25 of 46 54% 18 of 38 5 of 6 2 of 2 22 of 41 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 28 of 50 56% 21 of 42 6 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 43 6 of 7 0 of 0
Angela Hill 31 of 54 57% 19 of 39 11 of 14 1 of 1 22 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Angela Hill 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-190); Hill (+150)

Round 1
While the previous match had an age difference of eight years, this strawweight pairing may make UFC history as Lucindo (17-6, 4-2 UFC) is just about 17 years younger than ultra-active veteran Hill (18-14, 13-14 UFC). Someone with a mind for stats and figures should look into that. Taking responsibility of the match will be referee Chris Tognoni, who witnesses the “featured fight of the night” combatants think about bumping fists but ultimately not doing it.
Lucindo gets right in Hill’s face with short check hooks. Hill does not like them and considers clinching up, only for the younger woman to turn it against her and get a body lock from behind. Lucindo leaps onto Hill’s back, dragging her down from behind. Hill works right back up, fighting the hands clasped around her waist to she can break out of the position. Lucindo leans heavily on the elder stateswoman, and Hill trips her down for a second. When Lucindo climbs back up, Hill knees her in the face. They proceed to bang it out for a short spell until Hill elbows her way out, and Hill rushes back in behind her elbow strike. Hill dives down after a single, and Lucindo stands her up and just misses on a counter elbow. Hill scores, and Lucindo counters with a big left hook that makes Hill step back.
The Brazilian connects with a body kick right before Hill’s overhand right response lands, and the latter follows her punch with a front kick to the stomach. Lucindo sits down on her big right hand, getting Hill’s attention, and she follows with two punches down the pipe when Hill offers back a low kick. Lucindo crowds Hill and clubs her with multiple hooks, laying into the veteran with a series of punches that spur Hill into a takedown shot. Lucindo bullies “Overkill” to the fence and breaks off with an elbow, and she sways to avoid two quick punches up top. Lucindo brushes the midsection with her foot when spinning with a back kick, and her subsequent back fist fails. The momentum of the Brazilian allows her to tackle Hill to the floor, and when the horn sounds, she helps Hill back to her feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The ladies do not need more than a second or two to engage in the second round, with Lucindo’s power the difference maker in their exchanges. Hill takes several punches and goes wild with a spinning wheel kick, turning to flow with a back fist then gripping hold of the younger woman’s neck to tighten up a guillotine choke while standing. Lucindo gets out of it, but not before taking an elbow on the dome. Lucindo does not back down, cracking Hill with clubbing hooks and forcing Hill to reel. Lucindo lands with two of three looping punches, and Hill sneaks in a right hand back. Lucindo pops Hill in the chops with her heavier left hand, and Hill has to clinch up to slow Lucindo down. Lucindo tries to muscle her way out, and only a Hill winging elbow allows Lucindo to get free.
The two women crash together throwing hands, and they bang heads together while doing so. This does not slow them, as Hill muscles Lucindo to the wall after landing strikes. Lucindo frees herself from the grip and leans into power punches. The Brazilian plants a spinning back kick from up close to the stomach, and she goes to the spin well with an elbow that Hill sees coming. Hill flicks out a few jabs, and she overswings and finds Lucindo ducking under to grab her from behind. Hill works her way to lean against the fencing, and Lucindo hangs on kneeing her until she kicks out Hill’s leg and wrenches her to the floor. Lucindo clings to her opponent’s back until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 3
The strawweights meet in the middle and throw hands, with Lucindo’s right driving Hill back out of the gate. Hill is quick to respond, but Lucindo’s fast-swinging hooks keep backing Hill off. Lucindo takes strikes on the chin and hurls back not only harder, but with more volume. Hill scoops up Lucindo’s legs suddenly to throw her to the floor, and Lucindo practically bounces off the mat to get to her feet. When Hill scores cleanly, Lucindo drills her square in the jaw and makes her take several steps back. Lucindo continues pressing forward, tackling the longtime vet to the floor and landing in side control. To remain in control, the Brazilian relocates into half guard. Hill sits up, and Lucindo elbows her in the back of the head. Hill keeps twisting in hopes of escaping,
Lucindo embraces the grind, wresting away any hopes of Hill staging a comeback. Hill tries to buck and kick off, and Lucindo puts her face on Hill’s face. Tognoni warns Lucindo for grinding her chin into Hill’s eye, which at one point in the sport’s history was legal as evidenced by Hall of Famer Mark Kerr’s past victory over Dan Bobish. Lucindo does not engage with much additional offense other than sporadic ground-and-pound to stave of Tognoni. He calls for them to do more, and Lucindo lashes out with elbows and punches as the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.

Advises not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to lean Eisman because I think she like literally will bully her way to a win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.

split decision
"I'll pick Hill with not a ton of confidence, but I'll pick her to win a very close decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I think I'll take Angela Hill. I mean, I think either way it's going to be close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.

"We've seen Lucindo struggle when she can't get takedowns or be the one on top. And we've seen enough defensive improvements from Hill in the grappling realm that I think she can either stop the takedowns, get back to her …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.

"I think Angela Hill is going to win a close decision here. Maybe this is another upset."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I just don't think that Angela Hill can put that fear in her. And so without that, I think she can be a lot more willing to just sit down and throw and do enough damage to scrape out a …"
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 42 of 111 37% 47 of 119 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 83 of 136 61% 91 of 144 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 36 69% 31 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 28 71% 22 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 42 of 111 37% 17 of 73 15 of 22 10 of 16 40 of 108 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 83 of 136 61% 53 of 100 23 of 28 7 of 8 57 of 105 13 of 18 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 36 69% 18 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 17 9 of 12 7 of 7
2 Iasmin Lucindo 26 of 61 42% 9 of 38 11 of 13 6 of 10 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 72 52% 23 of 53 13 of 16 2 of 3 37 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 9 of 32 28% 4 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 28 71% 12 of 19 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.

Angelo says 'the minus 330 odds they're just a little too rich for my blood'
"eisan lucendo is the pick but please be careful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.

"I'm going to go decision for Lucindo."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.

"I think lucendo can win on the feet but yeah mix in those takedowns..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm gonna go out on a limb I'm not confident but I'mma pick kolina kovak kavich"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.

minus-400 odds
"look for lucino to utilize her grappling to grind out kovok kavich over 15 minutes to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.

"Gotta go Lucindo... young hot Brazilian prospect in Brazil who's got legitimate skills..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.

"Yasmin lendo wins"
WIN vs Polyana Viana
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 10 of 25 40% 41 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 10 of 24 41% 31 of 48 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 6 of 12 50% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 13 30% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 24 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 10 of 25 40% 2 of 15 4 of 6 4 of 4 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 10 of 24 41% 5 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 6 of 12 50% 2 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3
2 Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 13 30% 0 of 7 2 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 4 of 12 33% 2 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-198), Viana (+164)

Round 1
Multiple fighters on this billing celebrate 100% finish rates, and Brazilian Viana (13-5, 4-4 UFC) is one of them. In fact, she has landed 12 of her 13 victories in the first round, with her latest a minute and change into Round 2. This likely means that youthful countrywoman Lucindo (14-5, 1-1 UFC) will need to be on her guard and not fall into any early traps if she hopes to put herself on a win streak. Standing by will be referee Chris Tognoni, and the bout opens up as the strawweight clap hands. Viana leads off with a kick that whizzes past the target, and Lucindo counters with a clubbing left hand that staggers Viana briefly. Viana gathers her thoughts and whips down a leg kick, and she partially checks one that eventually comes back her way. Viana scores a low kick and a punch, and she decks Lucindo in the face with her shin. Lucindo tries to punch back, and Viana closes in and grabs hold of her. Viana looks for a takedown, and she slugs Lucindo in the face a few times before dragging her down to the mat violently. Lucindo closes up her guard to try to stall things out, and Viana stays heavily pressed to her to keep her otherwise grounded. Tognoni asks for Viana to do more than sit there, and Viana does not improve her position or attack with anything else. Tognoni once again tells Viana to do something, and Lucindo is clinging tightly to shut down anything. Tognoni stands them up, and Viana helps her opponent to her feet and then offers a glove touch. Lucindo spins with a back kick that grazes off the side, and she misses with a back fist and ends up getting her leg grabbed in the air. Viana looks for a level change, but it is Lucindo who ends up tripping her up and throwing “Dama de Ferro” down to the mat. Viana hits her back and ignores light, frustrating punches bopping her on the side of the head. Viana turns to her side to potentially escape, and Tognoni now asks Lucindo to work. Lucindo postures up with a few hammerfists, and Viana kicks her off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The strawweight bump fists together to start off the second stanza, and after a lull, Lucindo springs into action with a head kick and spinning back kick. Lucindo strings together a right and a left, and she hurts Viana. “Dama de Ferro” bounces off the cage wall and shakes out any cobwebs, and Lucindo does not give her chase or pressure her one iota. Instead, Lucindo lets Viana back in the fight, as she slowly works her way forward and tosses out a blocked overhand right. Lucindo spins with a kick that ricochets off the guard, and she tries to boot the ribs only to have that blocked as well. Lucindo drills Viana with a fierce overhand right, and Viana wobbles but does not fall down. Lucindo does not follow it with anything, allowing Viana to shake it off and spin at her with a back fist and keep turning into a body kick. Lucindo meets her in the middle and tackles her to the ground, where she plops on top in half guard. Lucindo smothers and grinds without the occasional short punch. Viana has no offense of her own, prompting Tognoni to tell Lucindo to do something.
Lucindo looks to pass over to three-quarter mount, and she suddenly attacks with an arm-triangle choke. Jumping straight over to the side, the submission is complete and Viana has nothing left to offer. One single tap comes from Viana, and Tognoni recognizes it and pulls the two apart.
For the first time since 2019, Lucindo forced an opponent to tap out, doing so over a woman in Viana that typically is the one submitting others.

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Polyana Viana R2 3:42 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo, trusting her takedown ability and top pressure. He notes Viana is a BJJ threat but Lucindo's defense should hold up. He expects a decision win.

"I think this is an Eisman lucindo fight all day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision, but hates the pick. He notes Lucindo's striking advantage and ability to win minutes, but fears Viana's submission threat, especially the armbar from guard. He says there are two outcomes: Lucindo by decision or Viana by submission. He chooses Lucindo because she has more paths to victory, but will not bet the fight.

"give me a Lucinda by decision I I hate it um but it's got to be the pick right"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, praising her scrappy style, speed, cardio, and volume. He criticizes Viana's inconsistency and inability to get takedowns against good competition. He thinks Lucindo's strength will prevent takedowns and that she will outwork Viana on the feet. He acknowledges the risk in women's MMA but is confident Lucindo gets the job done.

Lucindo under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Yasmine lucindo to get the job done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

James picks Lucindo, believing she is a good fighter with strong ground skills. He thinks Lucindo's jiu-jitsu is better than Viana's and that she can even submit Viana. He notes Viana's only path to victory is on the ground, but Lucindo is likely better there. James sees value on Lucindo at the current odds, thinking she should be a bigger favorite.

"I think Lucindo's value here... I don't think she should be worse than minus 250 in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is young but has good training partners and experience. Viana is an aggressive BJJ black belt who finishes early or fades. Lucindo should be able to use Viana's recklessness against her with takedowns and forward pressure to win a decision. It's a close fight, and a value shot on Viana is not bad, but Lucindo is cleaner.

Lucindo by decision
"I still think that lucindo is clean enough to win this fight over 50 minutes and get her hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana by submission or inside the distance, citing the armbar from guard as a real threat. He thinks Lucindo might be hesitant to take Viana down due to her submission skills, and if the fight goes to the ground, Viana has a clear advantage. However, he admits he's not confident and may not bet it, as he understands Cody's points about Lucindo's volume and strength.

Viana by submission or inside the distance; mentions armbar from guard
"Viana by sub or Fiona inside the distance would be my official pick but I don't know if I'm gonna actually bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru initially considered Polyana Viana but switched to Iasmin Lucindo, noting Lucindo's better competition and ability to go three rounds. He mentions Lucindo's wins over Brogan Walker and Yasmine Uruguay, and her experience against Sarah Frota. He believes most people are picking Viana incorrectly and that Lucindo will win.

"I'm going with Yasmine Lucindo over polyana Viana here"
WIN vs Brogan Walker
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 53 of 118 44% 57 of 123 4 of 5 80% 0 0 0:46
Brogan Walker 0 29 of 145 20% 31 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brogan Walker 0 8 of 50 16% 8 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 11 of 29 37% 15 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:44
Brogan Walker 0 12 of 42 28% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:02
Brogan Walker 0 9 of 53 16% 9 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 53 of 118 44% 33 of 93 19 of 23 1 of 2 51 of 115 2 of 2 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 29 of 145 20% 6 of 99 13 of 22 10 of 24 22 of 137 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 43 39% 13 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 1 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 8 of 50 16% 1 of 33 3 of 6 4 of 11 7 of 48 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 12 of 42 28% 2 of 27 6 of 7 4 of 8 8 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 46 54% 13 of 32 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 9 of 53 16% 3 of 39 4 of 9 2 of 5 7 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo confidently, based on his notes from Brogan Walker's last fight where she showed awful takedown defense. He believes Lucindo will get takedowns and dominate on the ground, similar to what Juliana Miller did. He notes Lucindo struggled in her last fight but that was a tougher matchup. He is waiting for props to drop, possibly betting on under 2.5 rounds.

Waiting for props, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
"Eisman's definitely the pick a hundred percent the pick she should beat the absolute piss out of Brogan Walker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by second-round TKO. He notes that Lucindo is a 21-year-old prospect with good grappling and ground-and-pound, and that Brogan Walker showed zero takedown defense in her last fight against Juliana Miller, who dominated her. Brady expects Lucindo to take Walker down, beat her up, and finish her on top. He has a bad feeling because of the young age and big favorite status, but still picks Lucindo.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna take lucianu to get the first I'll say second round second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo despite the high price, using logic over the 'Pac-Man theory' of backing big underdogs. He notes Lucindo is young (20), fast, strong, and aggressive, with a cast-iron chin. He criticizes Brogan Walker as slow and flat-footed, with poor defense. Cody believes Lucindo will land power shots and possibly get a second-round stoppage. However, he admits he won't bet this fight.

"Lucinda's the pick but yeah come Saturday night you know what's gonna happen I know what's gonna happen and there's nothing I can do about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Brogan Walker

Connor picks Brogan Walker (referred to as 'cash aware' in transcript), reasoning that she is a disciplined puncher who has improved her striking. He notes that Lucindo (Silva) has good submissions off her back but rarely initiates takedowns, and that Walker's pressure will likely put Lucindo on the mat. Connor trusts Walker to land the punch that hurts Lucindo over a Hail Mary submission.

"I'll pick cash aware. I don't know. I'll pick the person that I trust to land the punch that hurts somebody over the get the submit."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo, emphasizing that Walker's fight against Miller showed she is unwilling to engage in striking and has poor balance. He notes that Lucindo is aggressive, hits hard, and makes adjustments, as seen in her fight against a tough opponent. He also points out that Walker's only path is a takedown and grind, but she lacks the coordination to do so.

"I think Brogan Walker is in for a very bad night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a grapple-heavy fighter with good top control and pressure. She trains with Virna Jandiroba, which should help her grappling. Brogan Walker has shown inconsistent takedown defense and can be overwhelmed by forward pressure. However, Lucindo is young and inexperienced at the UFC level, and Walker has a win over Miranda Maverick, showing she can pull off upsets. Lucindo should return to her grappling and grind out a decision, but it's a risky spot with low confidence.

Lucindo by decision
"I think lucindo has a pretty bright future in the UFC... prediction will still be Lucinda lucindo by decision but very be very wary about the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul also picks Lucindo, impressed by her performance against Yazmin Jauregui despite the loss. He sees her as a top prospect with a bright future. He notes she proved she belongs at this level and has a lot of potential. Paul also says he won't bet this fight.

"I'll be picking lucindo as well I think she's got a lot of potential moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, aided by a coin flip. He notes Brogan Walker's loss to Juliana Miller and age, while Lucindo had a good performance against Yasmine Urigui and a long win streak. He thinks Lucindo's technique is solid and that this should be a lock. He predicts a win for Lucindo.

"we're gonna go Lucindo... me and the coin think alike you know I mean genius at women's MMA predictions"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Iasmin Lucindo (Silva), arguing that she has a clear grappling advantage and that it would be foolish for her not to try takedowns. He refuses to consider that she wouldn't attempt takedowns against Walker, who is a terrible grappler. Zane believes Lucindo's submissions off her back are a threat, and that Walker's lack of grappling knowledge will be exploited.

"I'm going to take her. I refuse to consider the idea that she would fight cash with it and be like, and just refuse to even try a take down."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Lucindo confidently, noting that she is much more technical, fluid, and combination-savvy than Walker. He points out that Walker struggled against Juliana Miller, who is less skilled than Lucindo, and that Walker's inability to throw more than one strike without getting off balance will be exploited. He also mentions Lucindo's speed and power.

"Lucindo just seems frankly, just way too athletic."
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 86 of 218 39% 87 of 219 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Iasmin Lucindo 0 66 of 181 36% 66 of 181 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 31 of 77 40% 31 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 30 of 69 43% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Iasmin Lucindo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Iasmin Lucindo 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 86 of 218 39% 52 of 159 9 of 25 25 of 34 81 of 210 5 of 8 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 66 of 181 36% 42 of 148 15 of 22 9 of 11 64 of 179 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 31 of 77 40% 16 of 55 2 of 4 13 of 18 29 of 72 2 of 5 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 60 41% 15 of 49 7 of 8 3 of 3 23 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 30 of 69 43% 17 of 48 5 of 11 8 of 10 27 of 66 3 of 3 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 23 of 59 38% 17 of 50 3 of 6 3 of 3 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 25 of 72 34% 19 of 56 2 of 10 4 of 6 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 18 of 62 29% 10 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.

Odds comment: -240 is correct, line will move
"i absolutely love yasmin in this fight obviously there's some questions around her takedown defense and her bjj off her back but i think i've watched enough tape to see just how solid that defense is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.

first round knockout
"i think she finishes lucinda here i think she does in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.

"i don't know that i would want a ton of investment here but i think she is the right favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.

"I guess I'll go Lucindo because since I'm not obvious about the favorite I'll go with the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.

Jauregui by KO at +250; Jauregui round 1 KO at +700 (considering).
"i think eventually she'll get the finish i think the safer way to play is just play ko straight up which is still getting about plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.

"i think she'll probably keep the fight standing for the most part stop the takedowns when need be and kind of piece her up from range"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.

"i'm going to be going with yasmin jaurudjie"
Angela Hill - Fight History
SCHED vs Xiong Jingnan
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Xiong (-210); Hill (+175)

Round 1
Former ONE champ Xiong (19-2) has been one of the top women operating outside the UFC for at least six years. She finally makes her Octagon debut against “Overkill” Hill (18-16), who has been in the thick of things in the UFC strawweight division literally since the beginning. Mark Craig draws his first referee assignment of the evening. Hill declines the glove touch offered by Xiong and they’re off to work, both women in orthodox stance. Xiong hurts Hill with a couple of punches, but Hill comes right back and lands a three-piece flurry that sits the Chinese fighter down for an instant, more off-balance than hurt. Hill pursues and meet Xiong by the fence, where she takes the Thai clinch and tries to drive some knees up the middle. Xiong shucks her off and lands a couple of hard punches, and they break away from the fence. Two minutes down in a frenetic first round and Hill again grabs the Thai plam against the fence, kneeing Xiong in the gut and then throwing a front kick to the head when Xiong breaks the clinch. They meet again and Hill looks for a guillotine, but can’t get it. Xiong sticks Hill with a hard one-two, then gets rocked by a lovely flying knee-to-punch combination. Ninety seconds to go and Hill steps into the pocket, meeting Xiong with another intercepting knee. Hill stalks forward and catches Xiong with another knee, then a front kick up the middle. Xiong is still throwing back, but is clearly taken aback by the American’s relentless attack. Xiong lands a spinning kick, then grabs a headlock at the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds.
10-9 Hill.

Round 2
Hill comes forward again to open Round 2 and Xiong gives ground, then plants and fires a one-two that glance off the guard. Hill keeps coming forward, landing a jab and a switch kick to the body. Xiong halts Hill’s advance with a nice jab to the body. Xiong meets Hill’s next advance with a spinning backfist that lands cleanly but without much on it. Hill dips a shoulder and drives her foe to the fence, then hooks a leg and dumps Xiong to the mat. She takes top position but can’t get anything underway before the bigger woman surges back to her feet. Xiong steps into the pocket and gets kneed to the face. Xiong comes up short with a pair of hooks and the action slows just a tick in the second half of the frame. Hill hops into the pocket with a jab and right cross, slips the counter and lands a nice right hook. Xiong steps forward and right into another intercepting knee to the body, but comes back with a pair of hard hooks. Xiong takes a level elbow in close quarters, then a knee to the face. The 10-second clapper sounds and Hill comes forward, slapping a glancing kick off Xiong’s face before the horn.
10-9 Hill.

Round 3
If our scorecards are any indicator, Xiong needs to do something big here, and she seems to agree, as she comes forward and lands the first significant blows of the round, a pair of solid hooks. Hill knees her up the middle and within seconds, it’s once again the American on the front foot. Xiong circles away, conscious that Hill is trying to walk her into the fence, and meets an advance with a flurry of hooks to the body. Hill backs off and flicks out a front kick to the belly. Hill slides into the pocket and is met with a glancing elbow to the face. Hill steps in, launches a flying knee that does not land cleanly, but follows up with a front headlock, which she releases quickly. The round is half gone and it’s still very much Hill’s fight, as she is marching forward fearlessly on the bigger woman and landing almost anything she wants. Ninety seconds to go in the round and Xiong is still looking to land the huge shot or shots that might save the day for her, but Hill is throwing, and landing, far more. Hill rushes forward and drives Xiong to the fence where she takes her opponent’s back standing, snaking one leg around for a single hook. She can’t get it, but the last20 seconds find her pursuing her hurt foe along the fence with a swarm of punches, looking for a late finish. The final horn sounds on an absolutely sensational showing by Angela Hill.
10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill).

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Jingnan Xiong via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

AJ confidently picks Xiong Jingnan, citing her high-level boxing, power, and precision compared to Hill's volume without power. He notes Hill is 41 and slowing, while Xiong is younger (38) and has been inactive but dominant. AJ expects Xiong to land big shots and win a decision, though Hill has never been KO'd. He also mentions Xiong's wrestling defense and ground-and-pound as additional tools.

"I think Jing Nan Xiong is about to beat Angela Hill, which feels crazy to say because we're talking about an Angela Hill who's been on the UFC roster forever. Kind of the queen gatekeeper, but I think Jing Nan …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

AJ picks Xiong Jingnan because she has good boxing, national team level, and is accurate with forward pressure. He thinks Xiong will win the battle of real estate and land more impactful shots, while Angela Hill relies on volume and movement. He notes Hill is 41 and coming off two straight losses, though he wants to see weigh-ins to confirm size. He calls it a tricky fight and a coin flip.

Hill at +150; Xiong at -175; over 2.5 rounds at -415; Hill on cards +225; Xiong on cards -125
"I feel like Jing Nan Xiong is going to end up beating a 41-year-old Angela Hill. ... I'm picking Jing Non because I just think she's a little more effective with clean striking and precision boxing."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

Angelo picks Xiong Jingnan, citing her pressure and aggression, and the likelihood of Chinese judges favoring the Chinese fighter. He notes Angela Hill is durable and a live underdog, but expects a decision win for Xiong. He sees more upside in Hill for DraftKings due to potential volume.

decision win expected; Angela Hill may be better DraftKings play
"I'm going to pick Jeang to win because I love the pressure. I love the aggression. She will be in China. It will go to a decision."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

Angelo picks Xiong Jingnan despite her age and level of competition concerns, because her aggressive forward pressure and power will not give Angela Hill the space she needs to work. He notes that Angela Hill is a crafty veteran who could implement a grappling game plan, but he favors the home fighter who moves forward and bombs away. He acknowledges the competition gap but believes the style matchup favors Jingnan.

"I'm going to pick Jing Naan here. I'm going to pick her only because of the fight style."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

Angelo picks Xiong because she is a powerful striker who moves forward with wild looping punches. He thinks Angela Hill doesn't have the one-punch power to stop that forward pressure, and the judges in China will favor the aggressor. He is not betting on the fight due to the odds.

"I'm picking forward pressure here. Jing Nang is the pick. I'm not touching these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Big Brady picks Angela Hill but is hesitant, calling it a 'trap' fight. He notes Hill is older (41) but more active, while Jingnan is 38 and has fought only twice in four years. He believes Hill has a grappling advantage and has never been knocked out, but worries the UFC wants Jingnan to win in China. He says it's a 'dog or pass' fight and he'll probably stay away.

"Give me Angela Hill to win this fight by a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

Cody picks Xiong Jingnan despite not loving it. He notes that Angela Hill is 41 and often loses close decisions, and that the fight is in China, which may favor the local fighter. He believes Xiong hits harder and is faster, and that Hill's volume may not be enough to sway judges. Cody expects a close fight but thinks Xiong will get the nod.

Fight goes to decision; over rounds
"I think Jingyang Jeang's n she's not young, but she hits a little harder. She's a little faster. She should be I don't I just I I think she does enough to get this thing done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

Connor picks Xiong Jingnan, noting Hill can make Xiong tired and could win with takedowns, but Hill's offense is ineffectual and she is not physically imposing. Xiong may hit harder in exchanges, similar to how strong punchers have punished Hill recently.

"Xiong may be able to ignore Hill's offense and hit harder in the exchanges, the way strong punchers have punished Hill recently."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

Jacob picks Xiong but is hesitant because of her age (38) and the trap fight potential. He notes that Angela Hill is durable and has never been knocked out, so if Xiong slows down, Hill could take over. He acknowledges that many people like Hill as a dog.

"I'm picking Jeong. She should have the speed advantage, win a round, win the second round, third round. But if Angela Hill pulls us off, I'm not going to be surprised."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Lucrative James picks Angela Hill as a plus money underdog, questioning why Xiong Jingnan is such a big favorite. He notes Hill's durability (not finished since 2019), volume, and experience against top competition, while Xiong has fought lower-level opponents and may have lost her last fight under 1FC rules. He believes Hill can win a decision by outworking Xiong with volume and clinch work.

Angela Hill via decision
"I'm picking Angela Hill to win this fight. I'm picking Angela Hill to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

The host picks Xiong Jingnan over Angela Hill, noting both have Muay Thai bases but Jingnan lands with more emphasis, which will leave a lasting impression on judges. He expects Jingnan to win on the scorecards.

decision victory
"I believe it's going to be Jing Nan who's able to land with a little bit more emphasis and I think that will leave more of an lasting impression to the judges and I think that would lead to her …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

The host leans with Jingnan, believing she throws with more power than Hill and that her Muay Thai approach will edge her ahead. He notes both fighters are similar stylistically but expects Jingnan's power to be the difference, similar to how Lucindo beat Hill. He still expects a competitive fight and doesn't mind an underdog shot on Hill.

At minus 200, I just don't feel too hot about it.
"I'm going to have to lean with Jing Nan just ever so slightly. I think she throws with a little bit more power than Hill."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Paul picks Hill as a value play, noting that she has been fighting higher-level competition and that this is a step down. He acknowledges Hill's age and tendency to lose close decisions but thinks +165 is too high for a 50/50 fight. He is concerned about the China factor but believes Hill's experience gives her an edge.

Fight goes to decision; over rounds
"I just think this is like any other Angela Hill fight where she's plus 165 and you go, it's probably a 50/50 fight. Give me Angela Hill at plus 165."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

The Guru picks Jingnan by TKO, likely via body shot to head shot combo. He notes Hill is durable but thinks body shots can put anyone away. He highlights Jingnan's power, body work, and combinations, while Hill lacks power but has volume and toughness. He expects a knockout rather than a decision.

TKO by body shot to head shot combo
"I think Hill's getting knocked out actually. I'm taking Jang by probably body shot to head shot combo."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

The Guru picks Jingnan Xiong despite her age and debut, citing her elite boxing fundamentals, brutal body hooks, and takedown defense. He believes her power will be too much for Angela Hill, who is a volume point-fighter without real power. He expects Jingnan to time right-hand shots and land heavier punches.

"My pick is going to be Jing Nang Xiong to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

The MMA Guru picks Xiong Jingnan to win by decision. He thinks the odds are too wide but still believes Xiong will win. He notes that Xiong is a boxer with offensive skills but poor defense, but Angela Hill is 41 and a striker who won't wrestle. He expects Xiong to pressure and land consistently, winning a decision.

disagrees with odds being this wide
"I do think Jong Jing wins this fight, but I just disagree with the odds being this wide."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Xiong Jingnan

Zane picks Xiong Jingnan as a gamble on Hill no longer being able to enforce enough offense. Hill is 41 and her close fights are turning into losses. Xiong is a slugger with limited wrestling, but Hill's offense is increasingly ineffectual.

Odds mentioned: Xiong -190, Hill +165
"I will take Xiong Jingnan as a gamble on Hill no longer being able to enforce enough offense."
LOSS vs Fatima Kline
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 56 of 120 46% 65 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Fatima Kline 0 115 of 223 51% 152 of 268 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 9 of 26 34% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Fatima Kline 0 25 of 44 56% 42 of 62 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:01
2 Angela Hill 0 28 of 51 54% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Fatima Kline 0 37 of 82 45% 42 of 90 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Angela Hill 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Fatima Kline 0 53 of 97 54% 68 of 116 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 56 of 120 46% 34 of 85 15 of 27 7 of 8 44 of 103 12 of 17 0 of 0
Fatima Kline 115 of 223 51% 89 of 189 23 of 30 3 of 4 71 of 167 15 of 20 29 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 9 of 26 34% 5 of 17 1 of 6 3 of 3 7 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0
Fatima Kline 25 of 44 56% 20 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 13 of 25 3 of 6 9 of 13
2 Angela Hill 28 of 51 54% 17 of 35 10 of 15 1 of 1 18 of 38 10 of 13 0 of 0
Fatima Kline 37 of 82 45% 21 of 62 16 of 20 0 of 0 26 of 69 11 of 13 0 of 0
3 Angela Hill 19 of 43 44% 12 of 33 4 of 6 3 of 4 19 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Fatima Kline 53 of 97 54% 48 of 90 3 of 5 2 of 2 32 of 73 1 of 1 20 of 23
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Fatima Kline
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kline (-470), Hill (+360)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Kline sticks a jab right off the bat. Hill tries to clinch and absorbs a knee and is then simply overpowered, as Kline takes the veteran down near the fence. Kline goes to work in her foe’s full guard. Hill lands an upkick as Kline hovers over her. Hill scrambles up but Kline keeps the pressure on, driving her into the fence. Kline with a nice knee in the clinch. The strawweights battle it out in the clinch, and Kline fires an uppercut on the break. Hill lands an effecitve low kick. Kline with a straight right at range. Kline punches into the clinch, land a knee and then separates. Kline catches Hill with a body kick. A front kick and uppercut lands for Kline, and then she takes Hill down when her foe tries an ill-advised spinning back kick. Kline is in half guard and lands a heavy elbow from above. Hill recovers full guard, but Kline continues to control position. Kline stands and eats an upkick before diving back into side control. Kline looks to set up a kimura late in the period. Kline gives it up and ends on top.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kline

Round 2
Kline immediately lands a front kick. Hill fires off a right hand and applies pressure, but she eats a body kick for her efforts. Now Kline is piecing up Hill with punches, and it’s an accomplishment for “Overkill” to keep her feet after that salvo. Kline shoots from distance and pushes Hill into the fence. Kline lands an elbow on the break. Kline shoots again and shoves Hill into the fence. They move back to range and Kline lands a knee down the middle. Hill with a right hand. Kline crashes into the clinch and it’s Hill who knees the body effectively. Kline backs up Hill with a combination. Hill with a low kick. A high kick partially lands for Kline, who forces the clinch again. The strawweights battle it out in close, with Hill landing a knee before they break. Kline kicks the body. Kline has a combination countered by Hill. A right gets through for Kline and it’s Hill who initiates the clinch. Kline reverses late in the round and lands a couple knees before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kline

Round 3
A right lands for Hill early on. Kline with an outside leg kick. Kline sticks out her jab, but another solid right finds the mark for Hill. A counter right lands for Kline, who follows with another right in short order. The right hand lands again for Kline, who then stops Hill with a front kick down the middle. Hill pressures Kline near the fence, but Kline lands her jab. Kline tags the veteran with a combination. A left hook-right hand combination catches Hill on the way in. Hill forces the clinch with about 2:00 to go. Kline powers her adversary down to the canvas. Kline stacks Hill near the fence and drops a hammerfist. Kline clears the legs and looks to take the back as Hill stands. Hill is able to free herself and they’re at range with less than a minute to go. Kline subsequently powers Hill back to the mat and unloads with a flurry of ground-and-pound. Kline jumps on the back and stays aggressive. Kline falls off the back and the strawweights are tangled up on the canvas. They scramble up and Kline punctuates what should be a victory with a backfist and a head kick.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kline (30-27 Kline)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kline (30-27 Kline)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kline (30-27 Kline)

The Official Result
Fatima Kline def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Angelo picks Angela Hill despite her age (40), believing she is more technical and durable than Fatima Kline. He criticizes Kline's takedown attempts and notes her wins are over fighters no longer in the UFC. He is hesitant and considers a plus 3.5 round bet but does not place a moneyline bet.

considering plus 3.5 rounds bet
"I'm going with Angela Hill. And I'm a coward... I don't really have the nuts to bet on Angela, but I might do a plus three and a half."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Big Brady picks Fatima Kline, citing her youth (15 years younger) and Angela Hill's recent decline. He notes Hill looked poor in her last four fights and is slowing down at age 40. Brady believes Kline has a big advantage on the ground with vicious ground and pound and a good submission game, though he predicts a decision win. He mentions Kline trains with Erin Blanchfield and expects her to get the fight to the mat.

decision
"I do think it's Klein Klein by decision, but I think she gets it done here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Cody picks Kline, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Hill is slowing down at 41 and that Kline has good grappling and striking. Cody believes Kline can outstrike Hill or take her down. He mentions that Hill's cardio is fading and that Kline is the logical pick.

"Fatima Cline probably finds a way to to get her hand raised in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Connor also picks Kline, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Hill may be losing a step and that Kline is a very good grappler who can dominate from winning positions. He thinks Kline's youth and versatility give her the edge, but acknowledges Hill is still a tough test.

Odds: Kline opened -400, currently -550.
"Yeah, I'll go with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Daniel sees a clear mismatch, with Hill at 40 years old and on the decline, while Kline is a young, physical, and well-rounded prospect. He expects Kline to dominate and make a statement, similar to how Denise Gomes beat Tecia Torres.

"I think Klein's going to come out here, dominate this fight, and make a statement."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Lucrative James picks Fatima Kline to win, citing her youth, full-time training, and well-rounded skills. He believes Hill is past her prime and struggles from bottom position, while Kline has great striking and grappling. He expects Kline to dominate on the feet and on the ground, possibly winning by decision or late submission.

"I'm taking Fatima Climb in this one, boys. Pretty confident as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Kline lands bigger shots against Hill, eventually lands takedowns, and grinds Hill out from top position. She gets her hand raised on the scorecards.

"I do like me some Klein here as I think she can land bigger shots against Hill, but eventually land takedowns and really grind Hill out from that top position."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that women's favorites have been hitting at a high rate. He points out that Hill is past her prime and that Kline is younger, faster, and stronger. Paul thinks Kline will win by decision or TKO. He is confident in the pick and mentions that he has been backing favorites successfully.

"It's It's It's Cline for me as well. Younger, faster, stronger probably at this stage in her career."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

The Guru picks Fatima Kline, citing her size, range, and finishing ability. He notes that Angela Hill is aging and has been less effective recently, with losses to Tabatha Ricci and Luana Pinheiro. Kline has shown consistent finishing ability and should be able to outmuscle Hill. The Guru predicts a decision win for Kline, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going with Fatima Mlelene. She's bigger. She's rangier. That's not the only reason. She's actually pretty decent as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Fatima Kline

Zane picks Kline, noting that Hill may be losing athleticism and that Kline is younger and more capable everywhere. He acknowledges that Hill is a tough veteran and a great clinch fighter, but thinks Kline's grappling and scrambling could be too much. He calls the odds too wide.

Odds: Kline opened -400, currently -550. Hill opened +300, currently +400. Zane says 'That's too wide'.
"I'm going to pick Cline."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 72 of 151 47% 100 of 187 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:37
Angela Hill 0 64 of 110 58% 80 of 129 0 of 5 0% 1 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 27 of 68 39% 28 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Angela Hill 0 25 of 46 54% 26 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 28 of 50 56% 30 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Angela Hill 0 31 of 54 57% 38 of 63 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:46
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 33 51% 42 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Angela Hill 0 8 of 10 80% 16 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 72 of 151 47% 56 of 128 12 of 19 4 of 4 57 of 130 11 of 17 4 of 4
Angela Hill 64 of 110 58% 42 of 84 19 of 23 3 of 3 52 of 92 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 27 of 68 39% 19 of 57 6 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 58 5 of 10 0 of 0
Angela Hill 25 of 46 54% 18 of 38 5 of 6 2 of 2 22 of 41 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 28 of 50 56% 21 of 42 6 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 43 6 of 7 0 of 0
Angela Hill 31 of 54 57% 19 of 39 11 of 14 1 of 1 22 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Angela Hill 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-190); Hill (+150)

Round 1
While the previous match had an age difference of eight years, this strawweight pairing may make UFC history as Lucindo (17-6, 4-2 UFC) is just about 17 years younger than ultra-active veteran Hill (18-14, 13-14 UFC). Someone with a mind for stats and figures should look into that. Taking responsibility of the match will be referee Chris Tognoni, who witnesses the “featured fight of the night” combatants think about bumping fists but ultimately not doing it.
Lucindo gets right in Hill’s face with short check hooks. Hill does not like them and considers clinching up, only for the younger woman to turn it against her and get a body lock from behind. Lucindo leaps onto Hill’s back, dragging her down from behind. Hill works right back up, fighting the hands clasped around her waist to she can break out of the position. Lucindo leans heavily on the elder stateswoman, and Hill trips her down for a second. When Lucindo climbs back up, Hill knees her in the face. They proceed to bang it out for a short spell until Hill elbows her way out, and Hill rushes back in behind her elbow strike. Hill dives down after a single, and Lucindo stands her up and just misses on a counter elbow. Hill scores, and Lucindo counters with a big left hook that makes Hill step back.
The Brazilian connects with a body kick right before Hill’s overhand right response lands, and the latter follows her punch with a front kick to the stomach. Lucindo sits down on her big right hand, getting Hill’s attention, and she follows with two punches down the pipe when Hill offers back a low kick. Lucindo crowds Hill and clubs her with multiple hooks, laying into the veteran with a series of punches that spur Hill into a takedown shot. Lucindo bullies “Overkill” to the fence and breaks off with an elbow, and she sways to avoid two quick punches up top. Lucindo brushes the midsection with her foot when spinning with a back kick, and her subsequent back fist fails. The momentum of the Brazilian allows her to tackle Hill to the floor, and when the horn sounds, she helps Hill back to her feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The ladies do not need more than a second or two to engage in the second round, with Lucindo’s power the difference maker in their exchanges. Hill takes several punches and goes wild with a spinning wheel kick, turning to flow with a back fist then gripping hold of the younger woman’s neck to tighten up a guillotine choke while standing. Lucindo gets out of it, but not before taking an elbow on the dome. Lucindo does not back down, cracking Hill with clubbing hooks and forcing Hill to reel. Lucindo lands with two of three looping punches, and Hill sneaks in a right hand back. Lucindo pops Hill in the chops with her heavier left hand, and Hill has to clinch up to slow Lucindo down. Lucindo tries to muscle her way out, and only a Hill winging elbow allows Lucindo to get free.
The two women crash together throwing hands, and they bang heads together while doing so. This does not slow them, as Hill muscles Lucindo to the wall after landing strikes. Lucindo frees herself from the grip and leans into power punches. The Brazilian plants a spinning back kick from up close to the stomach, and she goes to the spin well with an elbow that Hill sees coming. Hill flicks out a few jabs, and she overswings and finds Lucindo ducking under to grab her from behind. Hill works her way to lean against the fencing, and Lucindo hangs on kneeing her until she kicks out Hill’s leg and wrenches her to the floor. Lucindo clings to her opponent’s back until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 3
The strawweights meet in the middle and throw hands, with Lucindo’s right driving Hill back out of the gate. Hill is quick to respond, but Lucindo’s fast-swinging hooks keep backing Hill off. Lucindo takes strikes on the chin and hurls back not only harder, but with more volume. Hill scoops up Lucindo’s legs suddenly to throw her to the floor, and Lucindo practically bounces off the mat to get to her feet. When Hill scores cleanly, Lucindo drills her square in the jaw and makes her take several steps back. Lucindo continues pressing forward, tackling the longtime vet to the floor and landing in side control. To remain in control, the Brazilian relocates into half guard. Hill sits up, and Lucindo elbows her in the back of the head. Hill keeps twisting in hopes of escaping,
Lucindo embraces the grind, wresting away any hopes of Hill staging a comeback. Hill tries to buck and kick off, and Lucindo puts her face on Hill’s face. Tognoni warns Lucindo for grinding her chin into Hill’s eye, which at one point in the sport’s history was legal as evidenced by Hall of Famer Mark Kerr’s past victory over Dan Bobish. Lucindo does not engage with much additional offense other than sporadic ground-and-pound to stave of Tognoni. He calls for them to do more, and Lucindo lashes out with elbows and punches as the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.

Advises not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to lean Eisman because I think she like literally will bully her way to a win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.

split decision
"I'll pick Hill with not a ton of confidence, but I'll pick her to win a very close decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I think I'll take Angela Hill. I mean, I think either way it's going to be close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.

"We've seen Lucindo struggle when she can't get takedowns or be the one on top. And we've seen enough defensive improvements from Hill in the grappling realm that I think she can either stop the takedowns, get back to her …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.

"I think Angela Hill is going to win a close decision here. Maybe this is another upset."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I just don't think that Angela Hill can put that fear in her. And so without that, I think she can be a lot more willing to just sit down and throw and do enough damage to scrape out a …"
WIN vs Ketlen Souza
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 86 of 158 54% 103 of 176 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:31
Ketlen Souza 0 70 of 138 50% 77 of 146 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 28 of 46 60% 40 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:00
Ketlen Souza 0 15 of 27 55% 19 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Angela Hill 0 42 of 70 60% 46 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Ketlen Souza 0 32 of 65 49% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Angela Hill 0 16 of 42 38% 17 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Souza 0 23 of 46 50% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 86 of 158 54% 40 of 96 40 of 55 6 of 7 63 of 131 16 of 19 7 of 8
Ketlen Souza 70 of 138 50% 41 of 101 19 of 23 10 of 14 61 of 128 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 28 of 46 60% 10 of 27 17 of 18 1 of 1 12 of 28 11 of 12 5 of 6
Ketlen Souza 15 of 27 55% 8 of 19 4 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Angela Hill 42 of 70 60% 22 of 43 17 of 24 3 of 3 37 of 64 5 of 6 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 32 of 65 49% 21 of 49 7 of 9 4 of 7 27 of 59 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Angela Hill 16 of 42 38% 8 of 26 6 of 13 2 of 3 14 of 39 0 of 1 2 of 2
Ketlen Souza 23 of 46 50% 12 of 33 8 of 9 3 of 4 21 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-112), Souza (-108)

Round 1
Continuing on the prelims is what is becoming a strawweight tale as old as time. The savvy veteran Hill (17-14, 12-14 UFC), who holds a litany of record at 115 pounds including the most victories and defeats, is forced to take on a less-experienced rival for a possible torch-passing moment. While this will be the 20th pro outing for Souza (15-4, 2-1 UFC), it may serve as her own toughest fight, even though the same cannot be said about her opponent. There is not a glove touch to get started, with the women so eager to get going they nearly step over referee Mark Smith’s call to action. Hill immediately gets behind her favored jab, and she pressures the Brazilian around while dodging a spin kick. Hill works the body from up close with knees, pressing Souza to the fencing and taking a few back. Hill’s are cleaner and heavier, and she decides to break out of the clinch and find another angle. A few jabs out the outside score for Hill, who eats a one-two that drives her back. Hill goes to the body with a slapping kick, and she clips Souza with a long right hook and a scooping left. Souza misses on the counter, and the two shoot in at the same time and bang their foreheads together. Souza sticks out a front kick and blocks ahead kick in response, and the two clash together once more. Hill rolls with a punch to come out with a right over the top, and she digs a left to the solar plexus as she ties her opponent up. Hill times knees to the belly, punching her way out of the clinch but standing in the pocket when Souza wants to throw down. Souza comes out swinging a bit too aggressively, and “Overkill” surprises her with a double that plants the Brazilian on the mat. Souza turns to her knees so she can stand up, and Hill batters her in the side with numerous knees as her corner is thrilled she is listening to their instructions. Hill sneaks as hook around to partially take the back, and she hangs on clubbing Souza from behind until she is swept and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
The strawweights meet in the middle trading kicks to start the round, and Hill uses head movement and footwork to tag Souza and eat counters. Hill goes to the body and then tries to go up top, and leg kick chops at the knee. The ladies stun one another with straight punches, and the bridge of Hill’s nose is showing a little damage. Hill slips a punch to bang Souza on the side of the head, and she fakes a level change to come up with a left hook. Hill fakes a jumping switch kick and goes after a takedown, forcing Souza to respond to the attempt fully. Hill sets up a clinch to drive knees through the guard, and Souza shakes her off and blocks a head kick. Both women slip in short right hooks, and Souza follows one with a knee to the body. Souza uses a right hand to open up a head kick, and Hill blocks it just in the nick of time. Souza spins with a back kick that plants firmly on the vet’s ribs, and she keeps targeting the body with additional punches. Hill glides back and gets Souza’s attention with an overhand right, and a second makes the advancing Souza take a few back steps. Hill takes low kick so she can reply with a side kick, and Souza sees an opening and spins with a wheel kick. Hill lets it glance past her so she can spin with a kick to the side, and the two are having some fun in there. Souza leaps forward with a huge left hand, and Hill’s chin is made of sterner stuff because she does not only not budge, but she keeps coming forward and even rings Souza’s bell with a spinning elbow. Souza pushes out a front kick and takes a flush knee at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza

Round 3
Leg kicks from both ladies open up the final frame, and Souza spins with one failed kick to aim a wheel kick up top. Hill dodges it and shoots for a takedown, and Souza defends with a guillotine choke but hits her back and does not have the leverage for it. Hill stays tight on top of the Brazilian, preventing her from any sweep, scramble or get-up. Souza holds up a knee shield, so Hill is in an unusual partial half guard situation, and she pries Souza’s legs open to find a home for her striking. Souza kicks her off and bursts to her feet, and Hill defends with a choke that has nothing to it. Souza gets away and follows a few jabs with a right hand. Hill kicks low and evades a huge right hand, with Souza aiming big firepower around the midpoint of the last round. Souza pitches out a few calf kicks, and she freezes Hill with a right hand but gets caught with two coming back her direction. Souza keeps her distance with probing kicks, and she stays far enough away to not get hit with a jumping switch kick. Hill swarms her way forward, and both women land flush one another. Hill goes to the body and head, and she jumps in with a knee that bangs into the forehead. “Overkill” punches her way into a takedown effort, but Souza shuts it down and forces them back to kickboxing range. Hill rushes after her, hands flying, and Souza’s defensive efforts keep her largely safe. Hill wraps a left around the guard and digs a kick to the belly, and Souza bends over and throws Hill to the floor by her ankle. Hill climbs back up, pushes through a spin kick, drills Souza with a right hand while the Brazilian is attempting a jump knee, and the strawweight tilt comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ketlen Souza

Angelo picks Ketlen Souza as an underdog, citing her pressure fighting style. He notes that Angela Hill does not like backing up and Souza is a known pressure fighter who will move forward and bomb away. He worries about Souza's cardio but believes she can hold Hill against the cage and drag her down. He also mentions a potential prop bet on Souza to win one round at plus money.

Ketlen Souza to win one round (if available, likely plus money)
"catlin's going to be the pick here I do worry about the cardio that's my one concern with Katlin but klin's going to be the pick and the bet when the props drop is likely going to be a plus …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Big Brady picks Hill by decision, arguing Hill has improved grappling and striking volume. Souza's only win was against a chinny opponent, and Hill has never been knocked out. Hill has the advantage in both striking and grappling, and Souza has been finished in all four losses.

"give me hill I'll say I'll say by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Hill's experience and striking are matched against Souza's aggressiveness and submission ability. Hill will stop most takedowns and get ahead on the striking numbers, winning on the scorecards. A pick'em fight.

"I'm going to have to lean with the veteran here in Hill as I think she will stop most of the takedowns from Souza... look for Hill to put the numbers on Souza here and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Ketlen Souza, though he initially hesitates. He notes Souza's win over Yasmin Jauregui but questions her losses to Manon Fiorot and Josiane Nunes. He highlights Hill's toughness, experience, and wins over solid opponents, and believes Hill's consistency will prevail.

"I'm going to go with Angela Hill even odds she's F the best of the best"
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 112 of 216 51% 140 of 245 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Angela Hill 0 101 of 239 42% 140 of 280 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 21 of 47 44% 35 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Angela Hill 0 27 of 62 43% 42 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:07
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 44 of 79 55% 51 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 35 of 76 46% 44 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:58
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 47 of 90 52% 54 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Angela Hill 0 39 of 101 38% 54 of 116 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 112 of 216 51% 66 of 152 43 of 61 3 of 3 88 of 182 19 of 26 5 of 8
Angela Hill 101 of 239 42% 82 of 215 8 of 13 11 of 11 88 of 219 10 of 14 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 21 of 47 44% 10 of 34 11 of 13 0 of 0 14 of 37 7 of 10 0 of 0
Angela Hill 27 of 62 43% 18 of 52 4 of 5 5 of 5 20 of 53 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Tabatha Ricci 44 of 79 55% 27 of 52 14 of 24 3 of 3 32 of 62 8 of 10 4 of 7
Angela Hill 35 of 76 46% 29 of 67 2 of 5 4 of 4 31 of 68 1 of 2 3 of 6
3 Tabatha Ricci 47 of 90 52% 29 of 66 18 of 24 0 of 0 42 of 83 4 of 6 1 of 1
Angela Hill 39 of 101 38% 35 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2 37 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ricci (-112), Hill (-108)

Round 1
While Magny-Morales was one “passing of the torch” match, this co-main event is set up to be one as well. At the tender age of 39, Hill (17-13, 12-13 UFC) has won four of five and is trying to make one final push to get into top contention at 115 pounds. Ricci (10-2, 5-2 UFC) saw her own momentum fall away after a close loss last year, but a razor-close victory in May got her back in the win column. While the two are on the outer edge of the top 10, it is a must-win encounter for either woman. Referee Keith Peterson serves as the official for the nonsense-free strawweight tilt, and the ladies have no interest in touching gloves. Ricci marches forward and gets caught with a right hand early, and she pushes in to tie Hill up against the fence. Hill uses her elbow to try to frame off, and Ricci gets her underhooks in pursuit of a body lock takedown. Hill uses knees to fight her way out, and she eats a right hand on the outside. Ricci blasts forward to attack, landing a few shots, and Hill lands one back before they clinch up again. Ricci tries for another takedown, but Hill stands her up as they trade knees. The two break, and Hill pushes off a front kick when she gets space. Ricci connects at the end of a right hand, and she lands a second and ducks under a Hill counter to change levels. Hill defends it and breaks free, but not before absorbing a flush knee to the breadbasket. Both ladies land one big right hand, and Ricci resets and races at her, attacking with a tornado of offense. Hill responds and pushes her away, and she ducks down to smack “Baby Shark” with an overhand right. Ricci blitzes once more, and Hill is out of harm’s way in time. Ricci lands a low kick and punches her way in, although Hill strafes to the side to disrupt the forward momentum. Ricci nonetheless runs straight at her to the her up, ignoring a knee up the middle to try for something. Hill stops a takedown before it materializes and separates. Hill sneaks a right hand around a jab, and she spins with an elbow but Ricci is out of range. Hill targets the body with three punches, and Ricci walks her down and tries to slug it out. Hill hits her back and decides to initiate the clinch, and they jockey for position while Hill tries for her own trip takedown. Ricci stifles it and gets kneed in the belly, and Hill targets the same spot with another as they split apart. They let frantic hands fly right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ricci

Round 2
Ricci pushes the pace right out of her corner, not slowing down even when Hill punches her in the face. Ricci uses her momentum to sling Hill to the mat, and she drops down fierce hammerfists and is drilled with an upkick. Ricci lowers herself down, and Hill sets up a triangle choke to keep her honest. When Ricci backs off, Hill powers her way back to her feet, and Ricci is quick to jam her up against the fencing. Hill turns her about and breaks free, tossing out a head kick that is nowhere near the target. Ricci gathers a head of steam and rushes forward, and Hill backs her off with a short combination ending with a body kick. Ricci lands two punches, Hill scores back, and Ricci is right there to keep the pressure on. Ricci looks for an up-elbow as she throws everything at her opponent, and Hill catches her with a right hand and ducks down to grab hold of her lead leg to take her off-balance. Hill catches a kick to drag Ricci to the wall, but she cannot hold it. Hill targets the body with a knee, and when Ricci backs off, Hill kicks her in the ribs. Ricci sprints into clinch range, and Hill lines up a Thai clinch to knee her in the midsection. Hill breaks off with a body kick, and she jabs and leans to avoid a knee flying at her melon. Ricci scores a one-two, and Hill responds with a push kick. A leaping elbow strike from Ricci brushes off the guard, and the two are mixing it up and not letting either get an upper hand. Hill drops down and comes up with a right hand, and Ricci stands right in front of her and bops her with an uppercut. Hill sits down on a hard right hand, and Ricci answers her back immediately. Hill connects with another clean right, and Ricci wants to slug it out until she shoots in for a single and hits it. Hill ties her up with a one-armed guillotine until Ricci is able to wrench her neck out. Ricci sits up, and Hill hacks with elbows. Ricci gets pushed off with upkicks, and the two meet in the clinch and start blasting one another like Frye vs. Takayama until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
The two women come out firing immediately, with Ricci running into the melee. Hill drills her with a spinning elbow, forcing Ricci to take a back step. Ricci takes a quick count of her teeth and throws back, with Hill answering and reddening her nose up with more powerful strikes. Ricci targets the body with a kick, and Hill comes over the top with a right hand and tries for an up-elbow. Hill shoots for a takedown, and Ricci turns her around and puts Hill on her seat. Hill kicks off Ricci’s chest to send Ricci flying, and they both get back up. Ricci plods forward, and Hill stands right in the pocket and trades until Ricci’s forward movement results in a clinch. Ricci slows things down as she stomps Hill’s toes and offers the occasional knee, and Hill knees her back until they split up. Ricci beats Hill to the punch in an exchange, and Hill appears to be slowing while Ricci is just as amped up as ever. Hill buzzes the hair with a spinning elbow, and she drives a right hand on the chin and a front kick. Ricci crashes forward to strike, and Hill intercepts her with an uppercut and backs off to take a breath. Hill eats a left hand and counters, and she kicks Ricci in the ribs. Ricci lands a head shot and then one to the body, and Hill kicks her in the guts. Ricci shoots for a low double, and Hill defends and latches onto Ricci’s neck. Ricci pulls her head out of danger, and Hill kicks her in the ribs. Even with Hill appearing winded, she still outlands Ricci and draws some blood with her fists. Hill kicks the body and then spins with an elbow that grazes the cheek. Ricci scores a single leg kick, and she follows it with a one-two. Hill throws back, knocking Ricci back with a hard right hand and uppercuts Ricci in the chin for good measure. Hill jumps forward with a knee, and as Ricci rushes at her, Hill knees her twice more. Ricci backs off, and Hill kicks her a few more times until this wild and crazy strawweight scrap comes to a close. It’s anyone’s guess who will get their hand raised after that frenetic 15-minute fracas.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Ricci)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)

The Official Result
Tabatha Ricci def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Angelo picks Angela Hill, citing her veteran savvy, length, cardio, and experience. He notes that Hill has found a late-career resurgence at 39 and is a high-IQ striker who can avoid takedowns and exploit rookie mistakes. He mentions that Ricci went 1-for-10 on takedowns in her last fight and was outstruck, but judges favored her pressure. He thinks Hill can steal a decision and recommends the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Angela Hill is going to be the pick the over two and a half is probably good here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci because of her youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He believes she can take Hill down and control the fight, as Hill is not as elusive as other grapplers Ricci has faced. He notes Ricci's path to victory is clear: mix in takedowns and control time. He also mentions that Hill is 39 and may not have the same durability.

Tabatha Ricci by decision
"I'm going go with tabii if I want to try to move it over to a little plus money I would take tabichi by decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tabatha Ricci

Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci but is not confident due to inconsistent judging. He notes Ricci's improving volume and jiu-jitsu advantage, while Hill has been on a resurgence. He thinks Ricci might win by split decision or submission, but acknowledges the fight could be a robbery.

submission
"I'll go Tabitha here but could be a split it could be a sub it could be a robbery"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Brevin picks Angela Hill, noting she has entered her prime at 39 with sharp striking and improved grappling. He thinks her length and volume will be key. He acknowledges Ricci's grappling advantage but believes Hill can defend takedowns and win on the feet. JP disagrees, picking Ricci by decision, citing Hill's 12-13 UFC record and age. He thinks Ricci's grappling, though not submission-heavy, will be enough, and notes Hill goes to decision often but doesn't win dominantly.

over 1.5 rounds, fight goes distance
"I think I'm gonna take Angela Hill in this one um I think it's a pick him right now but I'm going with the striker over the grappler give me Andre Hill"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Paul leans towards Hill because of her high volume striking and improved grappling. He thinks Hill can outwork Ricci on the feet and avoid takedowns. He notes the fight is a coin flip but sides with the steam on Hill. He also mentions that Hill's experience and recent submission win show her grappling improvements.

"I side with the steam I think that um that Angela Hill can put up super volume and we have seen at least massive improvements in the grapple game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill because he thinks she is a much better fighter than Tabatha Ricci. He worries about Ricci holding her down but believes Hill's striking and experience will prevail. He notes Hill's recent win over Denise Gomes and expects a decision victory.

decision
"I think Angela Hill is a way better fighter than taba for Richie um so I'll go with Angela Hill"
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:12 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 17 of 60 28% 25 of 77 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 28 of 79 35% 39 of 91 2 of 6 33% 1 1 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 8 of 34 23% 15 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:03
2 Angela Hill 0 10 of 40 25% 11 of 41 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 1 1 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 17 of 60 28% 11 of 51 3 of 6 3 of 3 15 of 54 2 of 6 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 28 of 79 35% 19 of 64 9 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 71 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 8 of 34 23% 8 of 29 0 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Angela Hill 10 of 40 25% 5 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 37 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 45 44% 11 of 35 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-135), Pinheiro (+114)

Round 1
It’s on with the main card. Two strawweights on the outside of the top 15 looking in—the UFC does have one of them ranked—will come to blows in hopes of making that next big step towards contention. Pinheiro (11-2, 3-1 UFC) will be looking to get back into the green after her last outing saw her nine-fight win streak snapped violently. On the other side of the equation, divisional staple Hill (16-13, 11-13 UFC) has won three of our last four and is on a solid run despite turning 39 in January. Referee Herb Dean is ready for the long haul, and the women are too as they get right to it with no consideration of a glove touch. Hill feints her way forward, flicking out a front kick to test the waters and find her range. Pinheiro circles to both directions, and Hill cuts her off and pitches out a high kick that is several feet away from her intended target. Hill leaps forward with two right hands, both still too distant. Hill closes in, but the first actual strike landing is a calf kick from the Brazilian. Both women throw and land simultaneous right hands, and Pinheiro keeps her left hand ready to release. Hill puts the ball of her foot on Pinheiro’s torso, and she continues to walk Pinheiro down winging a right hand. The two women stick out jabs, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown but cannot get anywhere. Hill backs away from a right hand, and she meanders forward and tosses out a head kick that is inaccurate. Pinheiro stick out a jab that marks up Hill’s nose, and they rush towards one another and start trading. Pinheiro looks to mix things up and throw Hill to the floor, but “Overkill” keeps her balance and pushes Pinheiro back to the fencing. Pinheiro jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and Hill threatens back with a Von Preux shoulder choke all while looking to establish better top position. Pinheiro releases her choke so that she does not get countered, and Hill lands a solid right hand before getting pushed off by Pinheiro’s flailing legs. Pinheiro gets off an upkick or two, and Hill pounces and bops her in the noggin with a right hand. Hill gets backed off with upkicks, and she connects with two mean standing-to-ground punches. Pinheiro jumps back to her feet, and Hill hurls her back down and lands a few strikes before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
Pinheiro races out of her corner to engage, only for Hill to jab her back. Pinheiro loads upon on a power right hand, and when that misses, she leans back as one from Hill buzzes past her as well. Pinheiro splits the guard with a front kick, and Hill flirts with a single-leg takedown and comes over the top with a right. Pinheiro pirouettes with a back fist, and Hill’s guard is high enough to protect her. Pinheiro uses her jab effectively to score, and she times a right hand over the top. When Hill crowds her, Pinheiro lands hard again and grins to celebrate her handiwork. Pinheiro spins with a back fist, and Hill sees it coming and ducks it so she can throw Pinheiro to the ground. Pinheiro grabs the fence a few times to stay afloat, and Dean warns her for the fouls. The two fight for position in the clinch when Hill’s takedown comes up short, and Hill stifles a trip that Pinheiro offers back. Pinheiro escapes the clinch, and Hill gives chase with a front kick and a stabbing jab that snaps the head back. They both go after high kicks, and Hill tries a jumping switch kick and a high kick that both miss the mark. Hill misses with a head kick, and she knocks Pinheiro off her feet with a lunging jab. Pinheiro hops back up, and Hill is on her with pressure and strikes. Pinheiro shoots for a takedown, and Hill stops it and clings to a guillotine choke that she uses to knee the Brazilian in the head. Pinheiro escapes, and Hill runs at her and kicks her in the face. Pinheiro swings back and lands a left hand that cuts Hill’s eye, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown.
Hill snatches up the neck while stuffing the attempt, and she sits down with a guillotine choke. When they hit the ground, Hill sweeps to claim the mounted guillotine, and the choke is crushingly tight. Pinheiro, who holds most of her finishes by submission while never suffering a submission loss, taps out.
Hill punts an 11-fight consecutive streak of fights going the distance with her tapout victory, and she is so excited when Dean intervenes that she does not know what to do with her hands. Hill figures it out and offers to help the defeated Pinheiro back to her feet, and she jumps into the arms of her corner to celebrate her first-ever submission win.

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Luana Pinheiro R2 4:12 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Angela Hill is a veteran with high fight IQ, good speed, volume, and versatility, though she lacks power. Luana Pinheiro is a powerful striker with solid takedowns and BJJ, but Hill's experience and game planning should prevail. Hill recently showed she can wrestle, and Angelo expects her to stick to a game plan and win a decision.

"Angela Hill is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Cody highlights Pinheiro's pattern of coming out fast and then gassing, as seen against Amanda Lemos and Randa Markos. He believes Hill's technical striking, footwork, and cardio will allow her to weather the early storm and take over in later rounds. Cody also notes Hill's improved wrestling, which she used to get five takedowns against Denise Gomes.

"I'll take her on one of those."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Pinheiro is effective early but slows down, and Hill has improved her takedown defense and getups. Hill's volume and cardio advantage will allow her to piece up Pinheiro in the later rounds. Hill has derailed prospects before and should keep the fight standing. Expects Hill to win a decision.

"I do think it's the veteran Angela Hill as The Slight favorite who ends up getting her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Paul expects Hill to use her veteran savvy and volume to outwork Pinheiro, who has a history of gassing after a fast start. He notes Hill's technical striking and footwork will allow her to capitalize as the fight goes on. Paul also mentions Hill's recent use of wrestling as a new wrinkle.

"I actually do like Angela Hill to get the job done here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Luana Pinheiro, calling Pinheiro 'quite [__]'. He argues that Hill has a misrepresented record with several robbery losses, and that she is difficult to finish. He believes Hill will outwork Pinheiro over three rounds and win a decision, as Pinheiro barely scraped by against Michelle Waterson.

"I'll go Angela Hill over Lana Pano I think Lana Pano is quite [__] so I'll go with Angela Hill"
WIN vs Denise Gomes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 76 of 120 63% 96 of 153 5 of 9 55% 0 1 8:03
Denise Gomes 0 62 of 133 46% 111 of 203 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 16 of 26 61% 23 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:42
Denise Gomes 0 23 of 32 71% 48 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:01
2 Angela Hill 0 37 of 53 69% 42 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:23
Denise Gomes 0 33 of 71 46% 46 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Angela Hill 0 23 of 41 56% 31 of 55 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:58
Denise Gomes 0 6 of 30 20% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 76 of 120 63% 37 of 76 37 of 42 2 of 2 40 of 68 33 of 44 3 of 8
Denise Gomes 62 of 133 46% 29 of 91 25 of 33 8 of 9 34 of 97 27 of 35 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 16 of 26 61% 7 of 16 9 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 9 9 of 13 2 of 4
Denise Gomes 23 of 32 71% 12 of 19 9 of 11 2 of 2 9 of 13 13 of 18 1 of 1
2 Angela Hill 37 of 53 69% 17 of 32 18 of 19 2 of 2 25 of 36 12 of 17 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 33 of 71 46% 14 of 47 13 of 17 6 of 7 21 of 58 12 of 13 0 of 0
3 Angela Hill 23 of 41 56% 13 of 28 10 of 13 0 of 0 10 of 23 12 of 14 1 of 4
Denise Gomes 6 of 30 20% 3 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 26 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Denise Gomes vs. Angela Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gomes (-125), Hill (+105)

Round 1
The final women’s bout, booked at strawweight like Moura-Ruiz, features two women who comfortably made weight. Storied veteran Hill (15-13, 10-13 UFC), who looks for UFC win no. 11, faces off against a woman in Gomes (8-2, 2-1 UFC) who is almost 15 years Hill’s junior. Youth versus experience will be on full display for the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Fernando Portella will be the arbiter of this encounter. There is no plan for a glove touch, and instead Gomes would rather throw hands and feet right out of the gate. Hill checks a calf kick and her forward momentum bowls the Brazilian over. Hill lands on top, but only for a few seconds until the Parana Vale Tudo fighter powers her way back to her feet. The two clinch up, and they pepper one another in the body with knees. Hill loads up on her knees to the breadbasket, and Gomes considers hitting a trip but ends up falling to her back. Hill muscles her down to her knees when Gomes looks for a way up, and Hill works to take the back and hangs on the younger woman. Gomes grabs the glove a few times to get out of the bad position, and Hill breaks away and tags her once on the way out. The two trade hands, and Gomes succeeds in tripping Hill and dumping her on her face. They both get back up, and Hill counters her with a throw of her own. They explode upright again, and Gomes loads up on power punches that ring Hill’s bell repeatedly. Hill leans on heavily to clinch and hold onto Gomes, thereby shutting down the swinging fists that smack her in the face. Hill drives her knees in the solar plexus again and again, until Gomes has had enough of this and pushes her off. Hill resets and pushes out a front kick, and Gomes swings at air when this meets her. Gomes scores a big right hand, and Hill backs off but is snagged and throws to the mat. Gomes latches onto Hill’s left arm for an armlock of some kind, and she considers a kimura or an armbar, as she sits on top in an awkward position. Gomes drives down several hammerfists, and before she can get the armbar, Hill slides out the side. Hill, now in the driver’s seat, gets blasted with a right hand from Gomes on her back. Hill toughs it out and elbows Gomes in the face, and Gomes forces her way back up at the bell to end the close, exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
Hill keeps her guard up high when she comes out of her corner, as Gomes whips a head kick at her to lead off the round. Gomes is intercepted when looking for a big overhand right, and Hill ties her up for a second before pushing off. Hill snipes Gomes with a solid right hand, and Gomes grins at her. Hill works her with a second overhand right, and a third before Gomes lobs another kick at her. Hill takes the strikes of the Brazilian and fires back, and she leans away from a spinning kick from Gomes. The two trade hands, and then land low kicks at the same time. Hill ducks a strike and comes over the top with a left, and she connects with two punches to follow. Gomes loads up again with power, and it hits air as Hill is too quick to eat it flush. Gomes absorbs a right hand on the chin and tags Hill with an uppercut, leading Hill to tie her up in the clinch and shove her to the wall. Hill gets off an elbow, and Gomes lowers her hands and looks for hefty counters. Hill spins with an elbow that bangs into Gomes’ chin, and Gomes goes not bat an eye and continues advancing. Hill shoots for a takedown, and Gomes defends with a standing guillotine that makes Hill think twice about the attempt. Hill sneaks in a few clinch strikes before backing off, and she watches Gomes’ winging strikes blaze past her. Hill catches a kick and deposits Gomes to the floor, but Gomes get right back up and takes a deep breath. Hill scores a few punches, and Gomes crowds her and blasts her in the face with a fierce right hand. When Hill grabs hold of her, Gomes answers with a number of vertical, hacking elbows. Gomes overswings, and Hill snags her and looks to drag her down. When Gomes keeps her balance, Hill smacks her in the face with a knee. Hill turns the corner, and Gomes succeeds in fighting off the takedown but gets kneed in the dome twice more. The round ends as the two are stuck together.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
As if she thought she was down on the scorecards, Gomes charges out of her corner and busts the veteran in the chops with a number of wide punches. Hill fires back, and she blunts the momentum by clinching up the younger woman and tripping her with a body lock. Gomes drops to her knees, defending the strikes from the side, and Hill hangs on from behind. Before long, Gomes works her way back to her feet with the fence at her back, and Hill drags her down again. Hill stays on the Brazilian like a bad penny, never giving Gomes a moment to breathe and not allowing her to get anything off. Hill peppers Gomes with knees to the head, side and thigh, attacking any target she can find while Gomes is stuck without answers. This grinding approach is slowing Gomes down, and a knee to the belly takes a bit more of the wind out of her sails. Gomes manages to push off and keeps throwing hands, but one left hand allows Hill to duck it and secure a single-leg takedown. When Gomes attempts to scramble, Hill is one step ahead, whether trying to take the back or working Gomes with strikes to the side of the melon. Gomes defends but is totally out of her game, and a short elbow from “Overkill” opens a cut on the side of Gomes’ eye. Hill flattens Gomes out, but Gomes explodes with 15 seconds to go and gets back up through sheer aggression. Hill tags her with a jump knee, and the close contest concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Denise Gomes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Angelo picks Denise Gomes, citing the 15-year age gap and Hill's age. He notes Hill is durable and experienced, but Gomes is tough, comes forward, and has power. He placed a small half-unit bet on Gomes at -141. He cautions that if Gomes fights recklessly and gasses, Hill could win as an underdog.

half unit bet at -141
"I have a small half a unit on her at minus 141 I think the much older Angela Hill is probably going to lose this this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Big Brady picks Angela Hill to win by decision but is hesitant. He notes Hill's experience and better competition, but worries about her age (38) and Gomes' power. He says Gomes is hittable but has real power for the division. He mentions that Hill just fought a five-round fight with Mackenzie Dern, so this is a step down in competition. He says he won't bet this fight.

"I'm going to take Angela Hill to win this fight by decision but I don't think I'm putting my money on this one here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Daniel Levi picks Denise Gomes, citing her rare one-punch knockout power in women's MMA and her aggressive style. He notes that Angela Hill, at 38, has slowed down and taken significant damage in recent fights, including a beating from Mackenzie Dern. Levi believes Gomes can hurt Hill on the feet and may even knock her out for the first time. He acknowledges Hill's experience and toughness, but sees Gomes' physicality and power as decisive factors. He is waiting for plus money on Gomes but leans toward her.

Gomes wins by KO/TKO
"I rarely ever pick Angela Hill... I'm not gonna bet on this fight unless I get plus money on Denise."
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

James sees this as a very close fight and is passing on betting. He believes Angela Hill is on a downward trajectory at 39 years old, gets hit often, and has been dropped in recent fights. He thinks Denise Gomes has power and could hurt Hill, but he is not sold on Gomes' overall game, describing her as uneducated on the feet. He notes that Hill has never been knocked out and could make it look easy if she can take Gomes' power, but he is not confident she can avoid getting clipped. He concludes it is a massive stay away.

"I think Angela Hill is clearly on a downward trajectory... but I can't do it man honestly I don't agree with it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Hill's volume striking style, speed, and footwork will allow her to stay out of danger and pick apart Gomes from distance. Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to hold Hill down for extended periods. Hill should be able to operate at distance and win a decision, making her a good underdog spot.

underdog spot
"Give me Hill and I think she's a pretty good underdog spot for this UFC SĂŁo Paulo card."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an underdog over Denise Gomes. He praises Hill's composure and durability, noting she is very hard to finish. He references Hill's win over Loma Lookboonmee on short notice in Australia as evidence of her toughness. The Guru believes if Gomes doesn't get an early finish, Hill will pull ahead in later rounds, predicting a close 29-28 decision. He also mentions he likes the underdog odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going to go 2928 very close decision Angela Hill gets it done and she's an underdog and I think I'm going to take those odds"
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Decision (unanimous) (49–43, 49–44, 49–44) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mackenzie Dern 1 126 of 210 60% 247 of 340 3 of 9 33% 0 0 13:12
Angela Hill 0 66 of 108 61% 94 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 7:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mackenzie Dern 1 23 of 42 54% 37 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:08
Angela Hill 0 12 of 16 75% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
2 Mackenzie Dern 0 22 of 49 44% 31 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 27 of 40 67% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:33
3 Mackenzie Dern 0 30 of 39 76% 70 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:23
Angela Hill 0 1 of 8 12% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
4 Mackenzie Dern 0 24 of 50 48% 34 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:03
Angela Hill 0 23 of 38 60% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
5 Mackenzie Dern 0 27 of 30 90% 75 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:38
Angela Hill 0 3 of 6 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mackenzie Dern 126 of 210 60% 104 of 186 18 of 20 4 of 4 58 of 132 19 of 22 49 of 56
Angela Hill 66 of 108 61% 27 of 65 39 of 42 0 of 1 35 of 74 30 of 31 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mackenzie Dern 23 of 42 54% 19 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 30 5 of 6 6 of 6
Angela Hill 12 of 16 75% 5 of 9 7 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Mackenzie Dern 22 of 49 44% 13 of 40 7 of 7 2 of 2 17 of 42 5 of 7 0 of 0
Angela Hill 27 of 40 67% 10 of 22 17 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 22 18 of 18 0 of 0
3 Mackenzie Dern 30 of 39 76% 29 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 24 of 28
Angela Hill 1 of 8 12% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 2
4 Mackenzie Dern 24 of 50 48% 16 of 41 6 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 41 9 of 9 0 of 0
Angela Hill 23 of 38 60% 10 of 24 13 of 14 0 of 0 14 of 28 9 of 10 0 of 0
5 Mackenzie Dern 27 of 30 90% 27 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 8 0 of 0 19 of 22
Angela Hill 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dern (-170), Hill (+145)

Round 1
A place among the top 10 looms for the victor of this headlining strawweight tilt, in a cliched but accurate grappler vs. striker affair. With the majority of her wins coming by submission, Dern (12-3, 7-3 UFC) wants to get her hand raised at all costs to keep any championship hopes alive for the foreseeable future. On the other side of the equation, fan-favorite “Overkill” Hill (15-12, 10-12 UFC) is one significant strike away from passing Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the most landed of any female fighter to enter the Octagon. Something’s gotta give in this final fight of the card, and it will play out after the final instructions are given by referee Jason Herzog. There is intensity but plenty of respect, as the women bump their fists together before preparing to engage. Dern loads up immediately with fierce fists, and Hill is surprised by the sudden power coming her direction. Dern punches her way into a clinch, and Hill pushes her back to the wall but does not want to be locked up here. Dern grinds her elbow on her foe’s face, and they jockey for position in the clinch. Hill drives a knee to the body, and Dern responds with one to break free. Dern swings with all her might and hurts Hill with wild hooks, and she looks to throw Hill to the ground when they get close. Dern lands on her back in the process, and she activates her offensive guard and looks for a submission. Hill escapes smoothly, but Dern follows her and busts her in the chops with a left hand. A shocked hill hits her seat, and Dern instantly gloms onto her and looks to take her back while Hill is still clearing the cobwebs. Hill turns to her back, and leans up against the fence to keep leverage and protect herself from further harm. Dern steps through to half guard, and she looks to pass to the side or mount. Hill kicks her off and uses upkicks to keep her honest, and she hooks her toes in the fence. Dern drops down for a kneebar or a toe hold. Hill fights it off, but Dern secure full mount with seconds to spare, Dern batters Hill with elbows and punches, and she sets up an armbar with 20 seconds on the clock. Hill defends with every bit of energy, and she grits it out wildly before the horn saves “Overkill.”

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dern

Round 2
Dern begins the second round confidently, and her big right hand immediately clips Hill. Hill welcomes the brawl, and Dern kicks her in the midsection and charges at her with flailing fists. Hill escapes one clinch, and Dern is following her relentlessly with heavy swings. Hill lets her overswing to take Dern’s back, and this slows Dern down and stops her from hitting her in the face repeatedly. Hill grinds from the side and back, getting in an occasional right hand and knee while forcing Dern to carry her weight. Hill grips her arm around Dern’s jaw and releases it at the right moment to knee her in the face, and Dern gets her back to the wall and knees in response. The two trade knees, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Hill lands knees to the body and an elbow on the break, and she backs off. Dern throws with bad intentions, and Hill’s head movement keeps her face from a long exchange. Dern sits down on a leg kick, and the two clinch up again. Hill grinds her opponent up against the cage, with knees to the midsection and short left hands getting in. Dern looks for a throw but is shut down, and they knee one another in the chest. Hill stays more active with knees, and she dings Dern with a right hand before they split up. Dern punches her way forward, and gets popped with an overhand right. Hill shucks off a takedown attempt, and she pushes Dern to the wall as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
The strawweight contenders meet in the middle of the age, and Dern leads off with a right hand and a high kick. When Dern attempts another kick, Hill knocks her off her feet, and “Overkill” willingly climbs into the guard. Dern throws her legs up high to set up a triangle choke, and Hill smartly stacks Dern up and shuts it down. Dern transitions to an armbar, and Hill backs off and stands up. Dern follows her, and she drives a knee on the chin that hurts Hill and puts her on baby deer legs. Dern attempts to throw a wobbled Hill down to the ground, and Hill winds up on top and fights her way up to her feet, possibly on autopilot after the hammering blow. Dern looks for another throw, and this time, she drags Hill to the floor and climbs into mount with three minutes to go. Hill turns to her stomach, and Dern allows her to do this so she can elbow and punch Hill in the side of the head. Hill looks to push her feet off the fence to protect herself, and she kicks off at the right time to roll to her knees. Dern muscles her back down again, and she unleashes fierce ground-and-pound as she traps Hill on her side. Hill shells up and posts off the wall, and Dern follows her and continues pummeling her with elbows and punches. Dern kiais every time she lands a strike, and these blows are not light and Hill is eating them or blocking them to little effect. Dern rides and batters Hill with left hands, screaming with every blow, and Hill scrambles but winds up in the armbar. With 30 seconds left, Dern softens Hill up with a few hammerfists and leans to her back to extend the arm. Dern cannot break the grip before time expires, and Hill has once more been saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dern

Round 4
Between rounds, Hill’s left eye swells up significantly, and it is closing fast. Despite this, she is good to go in the championship rounds. Dern slams her fists into Hill’s face to start off again, and she stings Hill and forces a tie-up. Hill presses her tightly to the fence, slowing the offense for a time. Dern uses a few elbows to get some space and considers a head lock throw, but Hill breaks away courtesy of a few punches. Dern trades hands with her foe, and Hill is not taking the punches well. “Overkill” clinches her up to not getting tagged, and Dern breaks with a fierce elbow. Dern hammers the lead leg with a few kicks, and she initiates a clinch to take the fight down. Hill turns her around before this materializes, and another stalemate ensues with knees to the body coming from both women. Dern looks to hook the leg or drag her down, and she forces Hill to carry her body weight. Hill spins her around with a frenzied effort, and Dern backs her off with a stern elbow. Hill the strikes on the chin, and Hill looks for a takedown and gets thrown awkwardly to her back, while hanging onto Dern from behind. Dern turns her around, and Hill hangs on with an arm-triangle choke from her back. The horn sounds with Dern in no danger from the submission setup.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dern
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dern
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dern

Round 5
The fighters have reached the final frame, and Hill’s eye is greatly swollen but not in danger of stopping the fight. She engages in a brief slugfest to start things off, and Dern catches her with a few punches and throws Hill to her back. Hill closes her guard, and Dern stacks her up and grinds an elbow on the chin to open it up. Hill reaches her legs up high and hopes to wrap them over a shoulder, and she gets her toes in the fence and even considers an armbar. Dern is wise to it and powers through it, and she moves to side control at the three-minute mark. Dern steps over to grab hold of Hill’s left arm, and she lets it go to hurt Hill with elbows. Hill turns to her side, smothered by the active Dern, and Dern traps her and elbows her repeatedly. Dern takes the back and looks for an armbar, but she flattens Hill out and punches her on both sides of the head. Dern gets both hooks in from behind, and she steps over to full mount and hammerfists Hill with no way out. Try as she might, Hill cannot get out, and Dern clobbers her with a long series of elbows. Hill holds on and moves enough to stave off referee intervention, and Dern beats on her right until the bitter end. Hill has reached the final horn, in what may be a moral victory after a fairly brutal drubbing. The victorious Dern earns her third stripe on her black belt from father, “Megaton” Dias. With her striking improving dramatically, Dern is an immediate top contender in the strawweight division. While the top echelon of the division is so jam-packed, Dern asks for a matchup against former champion Rose Namajunas. If that happens, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dern (49-44 Dern)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dern (49-44 Dern)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dern (49-44 Dern)

The Official Result
Mackenzie Dern def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (49-43, 49-44, 49-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mackenzie Dern

Angelo picks Mackenzie Dern because the fight is now five rounds, which benefits Dern's dangerous grappling and cardio. He notes that Dern never quits and the extra time gives her more chances to catch Angela Hill. He expects a close fight but believes Dern's finishing ability is the difference. He plans to bet on Dern by inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are better than -350.

Plan to bet on Mackenzie Dern inside the distance (decision no action) if odds better than -350
"I like MacKenzie during to win this fight because it's five rounds I do think it's gonna be close I don't think MacKenzie's gonna get a quick takedown and then submit Angela Hill"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to submit Angela Hill, possibly in any round. He notes Dern is younger, improving her striking and wrestling, and has a huge advantage on the ground. He believes Dern will eventually get a takedown and submit Hill, similar to how Randa Markos submitted Hill. He acknowledges Hill's takedown defense is good but thinks Dern's pressure and power will wear her down over five rounds.

submission
"the pick is Dern s are around it could be in any or any round but I'll just say Dern sub for this one I think she submits Angela Hill"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Cody argues that Mackenzie Dern's takedown success is inconsistent, especially in five-round fights, and she lacks striking volume. He notes Dern's poor striking defense and low output, while Angela Hill has excellent volume, cardio, and submission defense. He sees Hill winning by outworking Dern on the feet over five rounds.

"I'm gonna pick Angela Hill and fit it in on the parlay at some point."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mackenzie Dern

Connor picks Dern despite acknowledging Hill's advantages over five rounds. He argues that Dern's hyper-aggressive grappling and ability to create instant submission threats from awkward positions will give her chances early, and that Hill hasn't faced a grappler with that kind of venom. He admits that if Dern doesn't finish in the first round and a half, Hill likely wins, but he can't shake the image of Dern wrapping up a leg for a quick submission.

Dern opened at -170, currently -166; Hill opened at +150, currently +160. Connor notes the odds are essentially even.
"I'm gonna take Dern. But you have laid out a great argument for Hill in the five rounds and give me huge pause because yeah if it doesn't happen for Dern in the first round and a half, Hill wins."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mackenzie Dern

Daniel Levi leans toward Mackenzie Dern but is not confident. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ and submission threat, but questions her takedown offense (11% accuracy, less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes) and striking defense. He notes Angela Hill has 77% takedown defense and hasn't been submitted since 2019, and that strikers like Yan Xiaonan and Marina Rodriguez survived Dern's ground game. He sees Hill as superior on the feet and thinks the blueprint to beat Dern exists. Ultimately, he picks Dern via submission but says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and there's no value at -175.

Dern via submission; no bet due to lack of value at -175
"I guess it's a dog or pass situation... I'll go with Dern to find something along the way or possibly Bank three of these rounds"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Angela Hill

James sees this as a 50-50 fight but favors Angela Hill due to the plus-160 line, which he believes offers value. He notes that Hill has above-average takedown defense and will likely keep the fight standing, where she can outpoint Dern. However, he acknowledges Dern's submission threat and the possibility of Dern winning via decision if she gets takedowns in three rounds. He is hesitant and not fully committed to betting Hill yet, considering hedging with Dern submission.

Angela Hill via decision considered as a potential play; may hedge with Dern submission; plus-160 line mentioned
"I'm actually gonna side with Angela Hill I'm gonna say Andrew Hill gets it on Via decision but like I said it's about 50 50 fight so it's very hard for me to give an outright prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The host leans toward Angela Hill but is the least confident on this fight. He thinks Hill's footwork, output, and takedown defense could allow her to batter Dern on the feet and win by decision. He notes Dern could also win quickly by submission if she gets takedowns. He suggests a round 4 or 5 decision prop but says he won't put money on either side.

round 4 or 5 decision prop
"I'm gonna lean with the striker here though I'm gonna go with the footwork the output and hopefully decent enough takedown defense here from Angela Hill"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the betting lines suggest a striking affair. He points out that Dern's takedown line is low (1 takedown) and that Hill's takedown defense has been adequate against good grapplers. He sees value in Hill at +150 and expects her to win a striking decision.

"plus 150 here Angela Hill seems like a very very reasonable dog shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mackenzie Dern

The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing her grappling will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes Dern is younger (30 vs 38) and still improving, while Angela Hill rarely finishes. He expects the fight to hit the ground at some point, citing Michelle Waterson's success in taking Hill down. He predicts Dern will win by submission in round three, as her BJJ is a major threat.

submission in round three
"I'm gonna side with MacKenzie Dunn in this matchup ... I've got Mackenzie done by Sub in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Zane picks Angela Hill because he believes Dern's only path to victory is early submission, and over five rounds Hill's superior striking and improved defensive grappling will allow her to survive early scares and take over. He notes that Hill has refined her striking to be more efficient and can maintain a winning pace, while Dern's chances drop off precipitously as the fight goes on. He also points out that Hill's clinch work could punish Dern for trying to tie up.

Dern opened at -170, currently -166; Hill opened at +150, currently +160. Zane notes the odds are essentially even and expects them to get tighter.
"I'm gonna pick Angela Hill. I think she could get herself into trouble with her clinching... but she's gonna eat a ton of jab, she's gonna get picked apart."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.

Advises not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to lean Eisman because I think she like literally will bully her way to a win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.

split decision
"I'll pick Hill with not a ton of confidence, but I'll pick her to win a very close decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Angela Hill

Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I think I'll take Angela Hill. I mean, I think either way it's going to be close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.

"We've seen Lucindo struggle when she can't get takedowns or be the one on top. And we've seen enough defensive improvements from Hill in the grappling realm that I think she can either stop the takedowns, get back to her feet a lot quicker than a lot of people have …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.

"I think Angela Hill is going to win a close decision here. Maybe this is another upset."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I just don't think that Angela Hill can put that fear in her. And so without that, I think she can be a lot more willing to just sit down and throw and do enough damage to scrape out a win."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months ago

Angela hill, is getting old sadly. The power goes quickly in her fights now and opponents know that sit in the pocket and go for it. Still Angela is very technical ect but its volume in the 2nd and 3rd which will make it tricky to win fights.