UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Next Fight
Age 37
Height 6' 2"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Roman Dolidze
3.19 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.71 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.16 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
32.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Anthony Hernandez
4.57 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
3.1 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
5.88 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Roman Dolidze
Moneyline
BetMGM +300
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
Unibet +1400
Decision
FanDuel +1000
Anthony Hernandez
Moneyline
FanDuel -330
KO/TKO
FanDuel +430
Submission
FanDuel +240
Decision
BetRivers +220
Roman Dolidze - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 34 29% 40 of 94 3 of 4 75% 0 0 7:07
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 54 of 99 54% 78 of 125 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:33
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Roman Dolidze 0 5 of 19 26% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:33
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 20 of 44 45% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Roman Dolidze 0 3 of 9 33% 28 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 18 of 26 69% 27 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 10 of 34 29% 8 of 31 0 of 0 2 of 3 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 54 of 99 54% 18 of 52 6 of 12 30 of 35 51 of 92 1 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 16 of 29 55% 5 of 17 2 of 3 9 of 9 13 of 24 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Roman Dolidze 5 of 19 26% 4 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 20 of 44 45% 6 of 24 3 of 5 11 of 15 20 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Roman Dolidze 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 18 of 26 69% 7 of 11 1 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan because of his speed, athleticism, and striking advantage. He notes Roman Dolidze is a world champion grappler but doesn't always use his wrestling and has poor fight IQ. He is not betting on this fight because Roman can be dangerous on any given day and CLD is not a genius himself.

avoiding betting; Roman Dez inside distance no action bet screwed him last time
"I got to pick CLLD. I think the speed's going to be a big difference. I think the athleticism is going to be a big difference, but I'm not going to bet on this because I recognize how good Roman …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Big Brady confidently picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting that Duncan is seven years younger, much quicker, and has more variety on the feet. He points out that Roman Dolidze looked bad in his last fight against Fluffy Hernandez and doesn't wrestle enough (less than one takedown per 15 minutes). He thinks Duncan will pick apart Dolidze over 15 minutes and win a decision, as Dolidze is tough but unlikely to get the fight to the ground.

Christian Leroy Duncan by decision
"I kind of think Duncan's going to style a little bit here. Give me Duncan to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody agrees, citing Duncan's dynamic striking and Dolidze's susceptibility to speed. He expects a finish or clear decision for Duncan.

"I got Christian Leroy Duncan minus 500."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Connor picks Duncan but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight could be ugly. He notes that Duncan has a 'meme fighter' aura and can look like a killer in bursts, but lacks a clear idea of how to win rounds. Connor points out that Dolidze is a big, strong galoot who is happy to hold opponents against the fence. He thinks the odds are too wide and calls it more of a coin flip.

Duncan opened at -300, currently -500; Dolidze opened at +215, currently +385.
"I don't understand what the odds are on this. Honestly, like Christian Leroy Duncan got out worked by Armand Petrosian... And like I would pick Roman Dolidze to beat Armand Petrosian."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Daniel is high on CLD, believing his speed and athleticism will be too much for Dolidze. He thinks CLD will have a breakout performance and knock Dolidze out, giving him his first real knockout loss. He notes Dolidze's gas tank issues and CLD's improved fight IQ.

"I think that the speed difference here, Marlo, is going to be like, 'Oh, man. Like oh, shit.' And I think that Saturday night this will be CLD's breakout and coming-out performance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by knockout. He highlights Duncan's athleticism, speed, and recent improvements, while noting Dolidze is older and slower. He expects Duncan to land at will and eventually finish Dolidze.

"I think that Christian Leroy Duncan is going to have his breakout performance against Roman Lee."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Duncan is a favorable stylistic matchup for the British fighter. Dolidze is old, slow, and flat-footed; Duncan is fast, athletic, and accurate. Duncan should dominate on the feet and win easily. The price is too steep to bet, but Duncan should win comfortably.

Under 2.5 rounds is interesting; Duncan -3.5 fight spread at 1.50 is worth considering.
"I think he dances around Ledezma and lights him up in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

James picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he is the much better striker and will knock out Roman Dolidze. He notes that Dolidze is not a great wrestler and will struggle to take Duncan down. He thinks Duncan's dynamic strikes and clinch work will be too much.

"Christian Leroy Duncan is going to knock out Roman Ditz this weekend in my opinion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The host picks Christian Leroy Duncan by knockout but is hesitant due to the wide line. He notes Duncan's improved clinch game and knockout power, but warns that Dolidze's pressure and toughness could cause Duncan to break mentally. He expects Duncan to land big shots and get the KO, but advises caution.

"I'm going to go Duncan. Duncan by knockout, but just be a little bit skeptical about what Delise could potentially do to Duncan here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul sees Duncan as the younger, faster fighter heading in the right direction, while Dolidze is declining. He expects Duncan to win by KO or decision.

"I'm going with CLD. Christian Leroy Duncan. It's exactly like you said. It's two guys headed in opposite directions."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan to finish Roman Dolidze in round two or three. He praises Duncan's chin, composure, and dynamic striking, noting he took big shots from Gregory Rodrigues. He criticizes Dolidze as a plodding, technical grappler who was outgrappled by Anthony Hernandez. He expects Duncan to win the low kick battle, defend takedowns, and land a brutal combination.

finish in round two or three
"I think he'll get a brutal finish over Roman Dizzy in round two or three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Zane picks Duncan but is hesitant, noting several ways the fight could be terrible. He believes Duncan is a better striker and has 70% takedown defense, which should be enough against Dolidze's poor wrestling. However, he worries that Dolidze's strength and clinch work could lead to a grinding fight. Zane sees Duncan's path to a showcase win but acknowledges Dolidze is a tough, strong fighter who can make it ugly.

Duncan opened at -300, currently -500; Dolidze opened at +215, currently +385.
"I think I'm going to take Duncan, but like I said, I can see, like, three or four, three ways this fight could just be terrible."
Submission R4 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 36 of 107 33% 39 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 91 of 152 59% 120 of 187 9 of 11 81% 1 0 7:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 31 32% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 37 51% 21 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:50
2 Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 73 60% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:47
3 Roman Dolidze 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 27 66% 28 of 38 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:28
4 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 36 of 107 33% 25 of 88 4 of 11 7 of 8 34 of 101 2 of 6 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 91 of 152 59% 67 of 128 6 of 6 18 of 18 48 of 102 13 of 18 30 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 10 of 31 32% 5 of 25 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 19 of 37 51% 11 of 29 1 of 1 7 of 7 16 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 20 of 52 38% 15 of 42 3 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 44 of 73 60% 38 of 67 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 47 7 of 11 15 of 15
3 Roman Dolidze 4 of 16 25% 3 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 5 of 13 0 of 0 13 of 14
4 Roman Dolidze 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 10 of 15 66% 7 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.

"I am going to lean Anthony Hernandez here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.

fifth round knockout
"I'm going to go with Hernandez here. I'm going to take him to win by fifth round knockout TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"You have to pick Anthony Hernandez. He's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.

submission, round 4 or 5
"look for him to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and really putting it on to and as long as he can eat a few big shots early that are definitely going to land from I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.

Dolidze wins by submission or TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Roman Dizzier. ... I think Ditzi's got a perfect anti-grappler style."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"Yeah, he's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 111 of 220 50% 112 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 141 of 338 41% 141 of 340 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marvin Vettori 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
4 Marvin Vettori 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 60 48% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 38 of 87 43% 38 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 111 of 220 50% 72 of 173 8 of 11 31 of 36 110 of 218 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 141 of 338 41% 85 of 253 20 of 36 36 of 49 137 of 332 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 19 of 38 50% 8 of 26 2 of 2 9 of 10 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 17 of 52 32% 9 of 40 2 of 2 6 of 10 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 9 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 31 of 66 46% 18 of 50 2 of 3 11 of 13 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 22 of 34 64% 16 of 26 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 62 29% 12 of 50 2 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marvin Vettori 21 of 43 48% 12 of 32 0 of 1 9 of 10 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 37 of 71 52% 24 of 51 4 of 7 9 of 13 36 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 29 of 60 48% 24 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 38 of 87 43% 22 of 62 10 of 16 6 of 9 36 of 83 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze over Marvin Vettori in the rematch. He cites Vettori's two-year layoff, a rumored shoulder injury, and Dolidze's progression since their first fight. Angelo notes Dolidze has improved his striking and grappling activity, and he likes the 'win inside distance, decision no action' prop for Dolidze because he can finish and is durable.

Win inside distance, decision no action (Roman Dolidze)
"I got to go Roman here. Roman has picked up the striking activity he's picked up the grappling activity he got the hair done up and I think he can get it done here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori, arguing that the first fight was close but Vettori outlanded Dolidze in two of three rounds. He emphasizes that this is a five-round fight, which favors Vettori's superior cardio and minute-winning style, while Dolidze is not a five-round fighter and needs a finish to win. Brady believes Vettori's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where he will outwork Dolidze. He predicts a decision win for Vettori, though he expresses concern about corrupt judges.

Vettori by decision
"I got to go vtori here... I think vtori wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody believes Hernandez's weaponized gas tank and constant pressure will eventually break Dolidze, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Hernandez is a slow starter and has durability issues, but expects him to take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Hernandez after the first round for better value.

"I do got him. I don't love the price, but five rounds is built for three round fight at this price. I'm thinking of the dog. I actually am five round fight. That's enough for me to go Fluffy's way. …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori despite acknowledging the X-factors of injury and camp change, because he believes Vettori's Kings MMA programming makes him durable and consistent. He notes that Vettori's style of moving forward and punching is hard to break, and that Dolidze's unathletic brawling may not be enough to overcome Vettori's pressure. However, he expresses concern that Vettori might try to be too technical after the layoff.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Connor mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to take Marvin Vittori still."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel picks Roman Dolidze as a plus money underdog, acknowledging the speed and movement advantage of Imavov but believing Dolidze's dangerous finishing ability and durability give him a chance over five rounds. He notes Dolidze's cardio concerns but thinks Imavov fades harder, and that Dolidze's leg lock threat is mitigated by Imavov's training with Ciryl Gane. He is not confident, calling it a tough fight where he could be frustrated if Dolidze gets outpointed.

"I kind of feel like I should just because I'm picking like a plus 150 dog out right but I I'm not delusional and I know what the concerns are"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host expects Vettori to replicate his previous decision win, using his ability to mix it up in the clinch and improved striking to shut down Dolidze's overaggressive nature. He predicts Vettori will outpoint, out strike, and out grapple Dolidze to win on the scorecards.

"I expect him to replicate that result here as I believe his ability to mix it up in the clinch and land his improving striking approach should be able to shut down the overaggressive nature of Del's game look for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
Roman Dolidze

Paul thinks Dolidze has improved striking and can exploit Hernandez's questionable standup and body vulnerability. He believes the market has overcooked Hernandez and sees value in Dolidze as a dog. He plans to wait for better odds, possibly plus 300 on fight day.

"I think it's deletes. He's shown more in the striking. Like I the biggest like he he absolutely crushed me against Victoria and there was nothing I could really say about it except for the fact that I really really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, believing he could have won the first fight. He notes Dolidze's momentum with three fights in 2024, including wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland, showing improvement. He questions Marvin Vettori's activity and recovery from the Cannonier beatdown and an injury. He thinks Dolidze's finishing potential and size advantage are key, and he predicts a 48-47 decision win for Dolidze, though a finish is possible. He also notes Dolidze is an underdog.

Dolidze is an underdog; predicted 48-47 decision.
"I'm actually going to go with Roman delzy over Marvin vtori... I'm going to say he wins this one 48 47 decision but if there is a finish I think it will go to delzy as well"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze based on the suspicion that Vettori's long layoff and potential camp change to American Top Team could disrupt his game. He notes that Vettori backed up a lot and got hit hard in their first fight, and that Dolidze came worryingly close to outworking him. However, he acknowledges Dolidze's unathletic style and that Vettori is durable and hard to put away.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Zane mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to say to Lizzie just on that suspicion."
WIN vs Kevin Holland
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 51 of 93 54% 51 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 100 of 185 54% 103 of 188 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 32 56% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 48 of 73 65% 51 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
3 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 51 of 93 54% 27 of 67 4 of 4 20 of 22 51 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 100 of 185 54% 61 of 135 12 of 16 27 of 34 65 of 132 3 of 4 32 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 18 of 32 56% 6 of 19 3 of 3 9 of 10 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 22 of 52 42% 4 of 27 4 of 6 14 of 19 21 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 11 of 16 68% 4 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 48 of 73 65% 40 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 22 2 of 2 32 of 49
3 Roman Dolidze 22 of 45 48% 17 of 40 1 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 30 of 60 50% 17 of 45 4 of 6 9 of 9 30 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.

"I'm gonna go with Roman Dolidze... I think he can win the 20 pounds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.

"I really don't have a good read on this fight... for that reason I'll just go with Anthony Smith as the dog but I could see it realistically going either way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.

KO prop at +275 mentioned
"I think Roman dedy first of all is gonna stuff any takedown that Anthony Smith throws his way and then second of all as you said he knocked out Jack her Manon... I think he's probably just gonna knock Anthony …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.

"It's me obviously I'm not picking Anthony Smith... he has no Chin left... I can very easily see him knocking Anthony Smith out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.

Dolidze wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think that we see Del end up getting a finish here by breaking Smith and winning this fight probably in the second or third round but I'd say pass all around."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.

"I do see merit in him at plus money... Anthony Smith will be the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.

"I'm going to go with Anthony Smith... I think Roman delzy is actual dog [__]"
Decision (majority) (49–44, 47–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 34 of 152 22% 59 of 190 0 of 4 0% 0 1 10:11
Roman Dolidze 1 112 of 189 59% 154 of 248 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Roman Dolidze 1 51 of 75 68% 69 of 109 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 5 of 30 16% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Roman Dolidze 0 9 of 22 40% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 29 27% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 33 60% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 6 of 31 19% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:33
Roman Dolidze 0 14 of 26 53% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 33 54% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 34 of 152 22% 14 of 113 8 of 13 12 of 26 32 of 145 2 of 7 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 112 of 189 59% 71 of 132 24 of 38 17 of 19 67 of 129 13 of 16 32 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 33 24% 1 of 20 3 of 3 4 of 10 7 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 51 of 75 68% 35 of 54 9 of 13 7 of 8 18 of 31 5 of 6 28 of 38
2 Nassourdine Imavov 5 of 30 16% 4 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 4 4 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 29 27% 4 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 4 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 20 of 33 60% 9 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 5 16 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 1 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
5 Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 29 24% 2 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 6 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 33 54% 13 of 25 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance (decision no action)
"nardin's going to be the pick... I'm going to do inside the distance decision no action on Roman deled"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.

decision, five rounds
"I'm GNA take the imav to win a pretty close decision here I think this does go the full five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.

"plus 170 Roman deletes I'll take that Underdog shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.

Dolidze as a potential dog is mentioned, but no specific prop bet.
"I always like going with a fighter that has the cleaner technique more paths to victory... but at minus 160 it's a tough line... at five rounds Del's forward pressure could be the Difference Maker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly just go with that plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.

third or fourth round TKO
"I'm gonna go with nasaden mov over Roman delzy... I'll say third or fourth round TKO for nasaden mavo."
LOSS vs Marvin Vettori
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 106 of 218 48% 106 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 71 of 192 36% 71 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 28 of 69 40% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 16 of 50 32% 16 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Marvin Vettori 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 26 of 71 36% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 106 of 218 48% 60 of 165 8 of 13 38 of 40 100 of 212 6 of 6 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 71 of 192 36% 52 of 169 11 of 15 8 of 8 67 of 180 4 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 38 of 75 50% 24 of 60 2 of 3 12 of 12 35 of 72 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 29 of 71 40% 20 of 62 3 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 28 of 69 40% 11 of 48 3 of 6 14 of 15 28 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 16 of 50 32% 12 of 44 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 40 of 74 54% 25 of 57 3 of 4 12 of 13 37 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 26 of 71 36% 20 of 63 5 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 61 4 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Vettori because of his cement chin, incredible cardio, and submission defense. He thinks Dolidze will fade and cannot take Vettori down. He notes Dolidze's takedowns are trash and his only path is a submission, but Vettori's submission defense is good enough. He has a bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action) as a hedge.

bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Marvin wins I'm not betting actually I do have a bet and the BET's on Roman Romans leads inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Vettori, citing his higher output (4.20 vs 2.62 significant strikes per minute) and durability (never knocked out). He questions Dolidze's path to victory, as Vettori is tough to finish and Dolidze has low volume. He predicts a decision win, but notes the odds are surprising and he may look for a prop instead.

maybe a prop will stick out
"I'm gonna go vittori to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Vettori, arguing Dolidze is a 'comeback kid' who relies on finishing but fades in longer fights. He notes Dolidze's low volume and poor cardio, while Vettori is durable, has solid wrestling, and good cardio. He thinks Vettori wins by decision, possibly with takedowns. He says minus 270 isn't bad and likes Vettori by decision prop.

Marvin Vettori by decision, Vettori over 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I feel like Victoria's got him beat out everywhere... probably more of a decision kind of performance... minus 270 he doesn't sound great but some of these favorites you're gonna have to trust"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori for his consistency and durability. He notes that Vettori is a roundly solid fighter who doesn't get submitted or knocked out, and he maintains a steady output of one-twos. Dolidze is more of a wild athlete who relies on flashy moments but lacks process. Connor points out that Jack Hermansson was dominating Dolidze before collapsing, and Vettori is a tougher matchup because he won't break. He thinks Vettori's pace and durability will overwhelm Dolidze, who cannot craft a game plan to break Vettori down.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"Vittori is simply too meatheaded to lose to him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jacob picks Dolidze, believing Vettori is an emotional idiot who will eventually shoot a takedown and get submitted. He thinks Vettori has no power and Dolidze can land a big shot. He notes Dolidze is undefeated except for a fight where Jacob picked against him. He is riding the Dolidze train until it falls off.

"I think the fight goes to the ground eventually Roman finds his sweep and finds a submission on this knucklehead fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Vettori is a strong grappler with good clinch work and durability, though his striking is still developing. Dolidze is on a four-fight winning streak with knockout power, but his striking is technically lacking and he can be reckless. Vettori should weather early storms and use his wrestling to control the fight, likely winning a decision. The minus 300 line is a bit steep but the skill gap is clear.

"I really believe the avatory should have little to no issue in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Vettori. He notes Dolidze's volume is so low that an elite fighter should be able to do what Jack Hermansson did and extend it over 15 minutes. He likes Vettori by decision at minus 120 and says Dolidze has never been finished but Vettori can outpoint him.

Marvin Vettori by decision
"vittori by decision definitely has my interest this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze, despite Vettori's sometimes questionable game plans. He notes Dolidze is dangerous on the ground but has poor striking and was easily picked apart by Jack Hermansson on the feet. Vettori outstruck Hermansson and stuffed his takedowns, so he should do the same to Dolidze. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Vettori, warning that if Vettori shoots takedowns he deserves to lose.

Vettori wins by decision 30-27
"I'm gonna go with Marvin vittori over Roman the Lindsay here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing Vettori's block-headed consistency. He notes that Vettori doesn't collapse when outsmarted; he just keeps coming. Dolidze is a flashy fighter but lacks the technical foundation to break Vettori down. Zane also mentions that Vettori's takedown defense and ability to stop takedowns are solid. He thinks Dolidze's best chance is a lucky shot, but Vettori's durability and pace will carry him to a decision win.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"If Marvin Vittori collapsed every time he was outsmarted, you'd never make it out of bed."
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 47 of 79 59% 48 of 80 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:52
Jack Hermansson 0 25 of 54 46% 39 of 73 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 25 of 40 62% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Jack Hermansson 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
2 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
Jack Hermansson 0 21 of 38 55% 32 of 54 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 47 of 79 59% 16 of 41 11 of 16 20 of 22 43 of 74 3 of 4 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 25 of 54 46% 23 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 38 1 of 1 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 25 of 40 62% 6 of 16 6 of 9 13 of 15 23 of 37 1 of 2 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 4 of 16 25% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Roman Dolidze 22 of 39 56% 10 of 25 5 of 7 7 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 21 of 38 55% 20 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 23 1 of 1 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.

Has a moneyline bet on Dolidze; notes short notice but Dolidze has stepped up before
"I like Roman Deliza here I got him at plus money I have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.

Hermansson wins by submission, round 2
"I think Jacker Manson is going to be the second one to ever finish Roma to Lindsay here... second round submission for Jack Romancing"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.

Hermansson by decision; Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he pushes a pretty decent pace and as he's getting a little bit older he realizes maybe not the greatest chin maybe not the most uh not the most power so why hang it in the pocket and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.

"I lean Jack but minus 190 is not a lean Jack minus 150 is Eileen Jack and actually minus 150 is where Vegas opened and I thought that was pretty appropriate so at this line I actually do think it's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'll still go with her Manson as my prediction I'm gonna take the over two and a half likely as a bet"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.

Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think minus 200 is a pretty fair price on Jack romance in this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.

Hermansson by decision (29-28)
"I'm going Jack commandsum"
Anthony Hernandez - Fight History
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
KO R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 1 110 of 241 45% 111 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Anthony Hernandez 0 55 of 122 45% 57 of 124 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 90 35% 33 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Sean Strickland 0 37 of 79 46% 37 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Anthony Hernandez 0 23 of 47 48% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Sean Strickland 1 41 of 72 56% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Anthony Hernandez 0 9 of 27 33% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 110 of 241 45% 93 of 219 9 of 14 8 of 8 101 of 230 2 of 3 7 of 8
Anthony Hernandez 55 of 122 45% 29 of 93 13 of 16 13 of 13 55 of 120 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 32 of 90 35% 24 of 80 3 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 23 of 48 47% 12 of 37 5 of 5 6 of 6 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 37 of 79 46% 30 of 69 4 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 23 of 47 48% 12 of 36 6 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 41 of 72 56% 39 of 70 2 of 2 0 of 0 32 of 61 2 of 3 7 of 8
Anthony Hernandez 9 of 27 33% 5 of 20 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Strickland lands an inside leg kick followed by a jab. A 1-2 from Strickland keeps Hernandez at bay. Hernandez lands a hard calf kick. Strickland, as expected, is using his jab liberally. Hernandez jabs the body. Inside leg kick lands for Hernandez and he jabs the body Strickland continues to pump his jab in Hernandez’s mug. Hernandez just misses a right hand. Hernandez looks to get inside and Strickland lands a short uppercut. Strickland follows a front kick with a jab. Strickland tags Hernadnez with a combination and “Fluffy” grins at him. Hernandez follows a combination by clinching with Strickland, but the former champ is able to circle out and extract himself. Multiple jabs land for Strickland. Hernandez fires back and Strickland appears to slip as he circles away. A solid right lands for Hernandez and Stirckland angels out. Strickland keeps firing his lead hand to keep Hernandez at a safe distance, but “Fluffy” is having his moments to land, as well. Hernandez follows an inside leg kick with a late flurry before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
Strickland with an inside low kick. They both trade low kicks. Hernandez fakes a takedown and then follows with an overhand right. Strickland lands a straight right. Hernandez pressures but Strickland is able to angle out of dnager. Hernandez counters a front kick with a right. More jabs and then a rigth hand connect for Strickland. A solid leg kick connects for “Fluffy.” Strickland’s patented jab and front kick both find the range. They briefly trade in close quarters, with Hernandez finding the rage on an uppercut. Hernandez pressures and Strickland pumps out his jab. Hernandez lands a jab of his own, but he’s still struggling to get into takedown range. Hernandez jabs the body. Strickland lands a 1-2. Hernandez answers with a couple shots to the body. They clinch and Strickland pushes Hernandez into the fence. They separate in short order with 40 seconds to go. Hernandez gets inside and forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow as they separate. Strickland lands a nice combination late in the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
Hernandez follows a combination with a head kick early to provide a different look. Strickland doubles up on his jab. Hernandez is trying to put pressure on his opponent, but Strickland always seems to have an anwer with volume and intelligent movement. Hernandez forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow on the break. Moments later, Strickland seems to have hurt Hernandez with a knee to the body. Hernandez is on the retreat as he tries to recover.
Strickland goes in for the kill and it’s just a barrage of punches as Hernandez covers up against the fence. A series of uppercuts does the trick, and finally “Fluffy” goes down. Strickland polishes off the victory with about eight unanswered standing-to-ground punches.
That’s the end of Hernandez’s eight-fight UFC winning streak, and don’t look now, but Strickland is right back in the thick of the middleweight title picture.

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Anthony Hernandez via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) R3 2:33
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez, drawing parallels to DDP's wins over Strickland via relentless forward pressure. He believes Hernandez's cardio and takedown volume will prevent Strickland from settling into his jab-heavy style. He respects Strickland's resume but thinks the matchup favors Hernandez.

"Anthony Hernandez has to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez to defeat Sean Strickland. He notes that Strickland has not wrestled in years, landing only two takedowns in his last several five-round fights, and that Fluffy's relentless takedown pressure will exhaust Strickland for the first time. He predicts Fluffy will land 10-15 takedowns over 25 minutes and win a decision, though a late finish wouldn't surprise him. He emphasizes Fluffy's cardio and ability to repeatedly take down opponents.

Fluffy by decision; over 10.5 takedowns implied
"I think Fluffy can go out there against Strickland here and I think he can put up 15 plus takedowns... I like Fluffy here to win this fight. I'll say it's by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody believes Strickland hasn't shown knockout power and that Hernandez's cardio and grappling will be too much. He notes Strickland's tendency to abandon game plans and thinks Hernandez wins by decision or late finish. He also mentions that Strickland's split decision history makes him unreliable as a favorite.

"I think Fluffy wins. I think Fluffy probably by decision, maybe a late finish."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Connor picks Strickland because he believes Hernandez's pressure will be too slow to overcome Strickland's defensive jab and front kicks. He notes that Hernandez has never faced a sprawl-and-brawl type like Strickland, and that Strickland's takedown defense, while questionable, should hold up enough to win early rounds. He also points out that Strickland has only been finished twice by huge shots, which Hernandez is unlikely to land.

Strickland by decision; odds: Strickland +230, Hernandez -270; Connor thinks the line should be closer to even
"I'm picking Sean Strickland though by decision. Hope I'm wrong."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

The host is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that all the value lies with Strickland as a +225 underdog, citing Hernandez's injury concerns and Strickland's elite cardio and takedown defense. However, he also notes that Strickland lacks finishing power and is passive at times, making a decision win difficult. He ultimately cannot decide whether to bet Strickland and passes on betting Hernandez due to the steep -290 price.

Hernandez injury concern; Strickland lacks finishing power; fight likely goes to decision
"I haven't made my mind up on this one yet. I really haven't."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James picks Fluffy Hernandez to win by decision, citing his relentless pace, pressure, and cardio. He notes that Strickland has all the tools to win but often makes poor decisions in the cage, as seen in his last fight against Du Plessis. James believes Hernandez's volume and grappling will overwhelm Strickland over five rounds, though he admits the betting value is on Strickland at plus money.

"I am going to end up saying that I believe Fluffy Hernandez wins a decision here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez is on an eight-fight winning streak with relentless wrestling and improved durability. Strickland's takedown defense is good, but Hernandez's pace and ability to chain wrestle should wear him down. Strickland will have success on the feet, but Hernandez's grappling control and submission threats should win rounds. The over 4.5 rounds is also a strong play as both have great cardio.

over 4.5 rounds at -120
"I'm going Anthony Fluffy Hernandez by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul acknowledges Strickland's takedown defense and cardio but questions his motivation and age (turning 35). He thinks Hernandez's constant pressure and grappling will edge him on scorecards, and notes that Strickland's style leaves him at mercy of judges. He prefers to live bet Hernandez after the first round.

"Hernandez winning in a main event against a former champion in Sean Strickland in Texas and his last name is Hernandez. This is what his career needs."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, believing his teep to the body and high output will be key. He notes Hernandez is often hurt to the body and that Strickland is difficult to hold down. He thinks Strickland's wrestling instincts and training with Chimaev and Ankalaev will help him stuff takedowns. He predicts a fourth or fifth round TKO.

fourth or fifth round TKO, teep to the body, underdog
"I think Strickland's going to win this one by fourth or fifth round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez despite sharing Connor's caution. He argues that Hernandez's pressure is methodical and builds over time, and that Strickland's footwork falls apart under pressure. He notes that Hernandez has improved his striking significantly, using feints and leg kicks to cut off the cage, and that Strickland has never faced a pressure grappler like Hernandez. He also points out that Strickland's win condition relies on frustrating opponents, but Hernandez has a different mindset and will keep coming.

Zane thinks the line should be closer to even; notes Strickland opened +110 and is now +230, Hernandez opened -250 and is now -270
"I am picking Anthony Hernandez. Again, I see what you're saying. You know, I share the caution, but I just think Hernandez is as much as Sean Strickland is a kind of opponent that Hernandez has never fought, I don't …"
WIN vs Roman Dolidze
Submission R4 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 36 of 107 33% 39 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 91 of 152 59% 120 of 187 9 of 11 81% 1 0 7:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 31 32% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 37 51% 21 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:50
2 Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 73 60% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:47
3 Roman Dolidze 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 27 66% 28 of 38 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:28
4 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 36 of 107 33% 25 of 88 4 of 11 7 of 8 34 of 101 2 of 6 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 91 of 152 59% 67 of 128 6 of 6 18 of 18 48 of 102 13 of 18 30 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 10 of 31 32% 5 of 25 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 19 of 37 51% 11 of 29 1 of 1 7 of 7 16 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 20 of 52 38% 15 of 42 3 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 44 of 73 60% 38 of 67 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 47 7 of 11 15 of 15
3 Roman Dolidze 4 of 16 25% 3 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 5 of 13 0 of 0 13 of 14
4 Roman Dolidze 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 10 of 15 66% 7 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.

"I am going to lean Anthony Hernandez here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.

fifth round knockout
"I'm going to go with Hernandez here. I'm going to take him to win by fifth round knockout TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"You have to pick Anthony Hernandez. He's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.

submission, round 4 or 5
"look for him to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and really putting it on to and as long as he can eat a few big shots early that are definitely going to land from I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.

Dolidze wins by submission or TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Roman Dizzier. ... I think Ditzi's got a perfect anti-grappler style."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"Yeah, he's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
WIN vs Brendan Allen
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 14 of 26 53% 53 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 3 2:58
Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 42 71% 72 of 91 4 of 8 50% 0 2 10:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 8 of 13 61% 30 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:09
Anthony Hernandez 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:23
2 Brendan Allen 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Anthony Hernandez 0 13 of 16 81% 25 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 1 4:04
3 Brendan Allen 0 5 of 12 41% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:05
Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 21 66% 37 of 49 2 of 5 40% 0 1 3:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 14 of 26 53% 8 of 19 3 of 3 3 of 4 10 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2
Anthony Hernandez 30 of 42 71% 30 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 17 0 of 1 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Anthony Hernandez 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Brendan Allen 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 13 of 16 81% 13 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 15
3 Brendan Allen 5 of 12 41% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez

Round 1
In 2018, Allen (24-6, 12-3 UFC) and Hernandez (13-2, 1 NC; 7-2 UFC) collided for the LFA middleweight strap, and “Fluffy” emerged the victor by decision. Since then, both men have made their mark on the UFC’s 185-pound division, and a spot in the top 10 now looms for the winner. Referee Mike Beltran will get to handle the proceedings for the co-main event, one that should have two extra rounds. Gloves are touched, and Allen opens up with a hearty low kick. Allen probes out a few jabs, and he disrupts Hernandez who is looking for an early takedown. Allen nails his foe with a leg kick and then wraps a head kick around the guard. With Hernandez stunned, Allen jumps on to his back, only for Hernandez to hurl him to his back. Allen scrambles wildly to get to his knees, and he nearly gets Hernandez’ back again in the process. Hernandez stops him from completing a takedown or back take, and he leans Allen against the wall. “Fluffy” wrangles Allen to the mat, where he lands in side control. The knee guard from Allen protects him from losing mount, and he sits up and leans up against the cage while Hernandez is still behind him. Allen tries to stand, but Hernandez is on him like a cheap suit, pushing on the back of Allen’s neck while always flirting with some kind of submission setup. Allen turns him around to claim top position, flipping Hernandez to his back and dropping down a few strikes. Hernandez strikes back off his back, being busy enough to make Allen think twice about recklessly passing guard. Allen partially isolates an arm-triangle choke while sitting in half guard, and Hernandez motions a thumbs-up to his corner. Allen postures up and jacks Hernandez in the jaw with a few punches, and he isolates Hernandez’ arm for an armlock setup. Allen nearly takes the back, but he slides into mount and starts hammering Hernandez in the face with right hands and elbows. Allen wraps up a rear-naked choke, and it is briefly under the chin until Hernandez turns himself to his back and slithers out. Allen smashes down with a number of elbows that split Hernandez’ forehead open, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Allen kicks off the round with another powerful low kick, and Hernandez sprints at him in pursuit of a takedown. As they whirl around, Hernandez succeeds in grounding Allen. Hernandez hangs on from the side and keeps Allen on his seat, and he leans over to wrap up a guillotine choke. Allen escapes the submissions without a modicum of concern, and he keeps moving in hopes of rolling his foe over. Hernandez follows the scrambles and grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and this time it is Allen who turns the proper directly to break it up. Hernandez gets one hook in while Allen is on his knees, and he elbows Allen in the side of the head. Allen hangs onto the wrist to keep Hernandez from gaining a dominant position, and he shoots in for a takedown only to find Hernandez setting up an anaconda choke. Allen knows it is coming and turns to his back, permitting Hernandez to establish top position for the moment. Allen turns over voluntarily and keeps spinning, and Hernandez him until exploding around to take Hernandez’ back. Allen has his own hook in, and he attempts a brute force neck crank without bothering to fasting his hooks or the grip all the way. Hernandez grits his teeth and stands up, chucking Allen to his back and dropping down heavy strikes. Allen scrambles and gives up half guard on his back so as to not be in submission danger, but this opens him up to Hernandez’ right hand and elbow. A few more strikes come from Hernandez before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the third round begins, and this time Allen punches instead of kicks to get going. Hernandez strikes back, and Allen claims he was poked in the eye while Hernandez states it was a closed fist. Beltran calls time and checks the replay, and when they determine it was indeed a punch, they resume the action. Hernandez surges right forward to grapple, and Allen pushes it off and drills Hernandez in the face with a left hook. Hernandez clutches his eye as he is suddenly in jeopardy, and he backs away. When Hernandez’ back hits the fence, he swings hard, and Allen dodges and attempts a standing submission. The two scramble and return to their feet, where Allen again clubs his man in the face to hurt him. Hernandez desperately pursues a takedown, and Allen deliberately lowers himself to one knee to take knees to the head out of the equation. When Hernandez sells out for a takedown, Allen keeps himself afloat and never truly goes down, although he returns to one knee down. Hernandez has his hands clasped around the waist, and he turns the corner and gets Allen down to his seat momentarily. Allen winces and returns to a knee, and Hernandez slips his arm beneath the chin for a second but is stopped from getting a choke. Hernandez keeps heavy on top of his opponent, not letting Allen get to his feet, and Allen appears frustrated and wants to fight instead of wrestle in this stalemate position. Hernandez has no plan on changing gears, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke and falls off the side. Allen uses two-on-one wrist control to free himself from the worst of it, and he smacks Hernandez and knocks his mouthpiece out. The two fall all over the place, possibly from fatigue or sweat, and Hernandez is the one who establishes top position raining down strikes. Allen backwards somersaults in a desperate attempt to get out, but Hernandez hangs onto him until the final buzzer. This could have used two more rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo, a self-proclaimed 'fluffy underestimator', picks Anthony Hernandez for the first time. He credits Hernandez's incredible cardio as the key weapon that weaponizes his other skills, noting his win over Michel Pereira was wildly impressive. He thinks the pace will matter even in a three-round fight, and that Hernandez's work ethic makes the difference.

"I don't know if I've ever picked Fluffy to win a fight ever, but I am now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez, noting his relentless wrestling and scrambling pace that most middleweights can't keep up with. He thinks Brendan Allen may have early success and win the first round, but Hernandez will wear him down, take him down, and dominate the later rounds. He references Allen's poor performance against Imavov, where he was out-grappled, and says if that version of Allen shows up, Hernandez finishes him. He predicts Hernandez by decision.

by decision
"I think Hernandez is going to wear on Allen I think he's going to get him tired I think he's going to take him down rinse his repeat out scramble him end up on top getting into some dominant positions"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, agreeing that Allen's gas tank is a concern and that Hernandez's pressure will be too much. He notes that Allen improved a lot in the UFC and has submitted good grapplers, but Hernandez's style of constant scrambling and pace is a bad matchup. Connor also mentions that Hernandez's striking is terrible but his willingness to eat damage and keep pace makes it work.

"I think there's a real good shot for him to get this one back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host believes Hernandez is clearly in his prime and will utilize his classic style: putting Allen through the ringer, pushing him against the cage, dragging him to the ground, and being too much. He predicts Hernandez wins on the scorecards.

"I think Hernandez is clearly in his prime I think we're going to see him utilize his classic Hernandez Style putting Allen through the ringer through the the spin cycle pushing him against the cage dragging him to the ground …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The Guru picks Hernandez, citing his positional grappling dominance and better cardio compared to Allen. He notes Allen's tendency to lose position by chasing submissions, as seen in the Jacob Malkoun fight. He believes Hernandez is a better version of Malkoun—bigger, rangier, more durable—and will outgrapple Allen over three rounds. He also questions Allen's fight IQ.

"I'm going to go Anthony Hernandez over Brendan Allen I'm going to tell you why with a few key fights in Brendan Allen's career"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Hernandez's relentless scrambling and pace will overwhelm Allen, who gassed against Nassourdine Imavov. He notes that Allen's best path is to catch Hernandez in a submission, but Hernandez never accepts a bad position and keeps scrambling. Zane also points out that Allen's striking is poor and he will willingly fall into the clinch, playing into Hernandez's game.

"i'm picking hernandez but that's not to say that alan might not just hit one nice back take in round one and choke him out"
TKO (elbows) R5 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 152 of 212 71% 219 of 293 10 of 29 34% 0 0 15:42
Michel Pereira 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:25
Michel Pereira 0 15 of 34 44% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 47 63% 47 of 68 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Michel Pereira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:35
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 55 80% 64 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:17
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Anthony Hernandez 0 29 of 35 82% 48 of 62 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:35
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Anthony Hernandez 0 22 of 23 95% 30 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:07
Michel Pereira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 152 of 212 71% 125 of 182 22 of 24 5 of 6 43 of 81 12 of 14 97 of 117
Michel Pereira 24 of 53 45% 8 of 27 16 of 26 0 of 0 20 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 27 of 52 51% 20 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 3 17 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7
Michel Pereira 15 of 34 44% 7 of 19 8 of 15 0 of 0 12 of 28 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 30 of 47 63% 25 of 42 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 15 0 of 1 21 of 31
Michel Pereira 2 of 7 28% 0 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 44 of 55 80% 31 of 42 11 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 36
Michel Pereira 3 of 8 37% 1 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Anthony Hernandez 29 of 35 82% 28 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 3 of 3 21 of 26
Michel Pereira 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Anthony Hernandez 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 17 of 17
Michel Pereira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira as an underdog, having bet on him at +135. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and grappling are too much for Anthony Hernandez, whose only path to victory is grappling. He thinks Pereira is the more dynamic and dangerous fighter, and that Hernandez cannot out-strike him. He notes Pereira's recent success at middleweight and dismisses cardio concerns, saying Pereira has shown he can maintain pace. He is confident Pereira wins.

bet on Pereira at +135
"Michelle P is the pick and I think we're going to Rattle off a couple of Underdog wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez by third-round submission. He sees it as Pereira early, Hernandez late. Pereira has three quick wins but gasses; Hernandez has great cardio and grappling. If Hernandez survives the first five to seven minutes, he will take over, take Pereira down, and finish him in the third round. He mentions a good live bet spot.

third round submission, live bet
"I like Hernandez here probably a good live bet spot for sure um but yeah I like Hernandez to get it done I'll say third round submission for for Anthony Hernandez"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, comparing his style to a larger, more skilled Tristan Connelly who will make Pereira pay for every bad decision. He notes that Hernandez's pace and pressure grappling are exactly the kind of game that troubled Pereira in the past. However, he acknowledges that Hernandez might get knocked out early, as he has been hurt in many of his recent wins.

"I am very much inclined to pick Anthony Hernandez while also having to acknowledge that he might just get dusted"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James believes Fluffy Hernandez will overwhelm Sean Strickland with constant forward pressure, takedown attempts, and volume. He notes that Strickland struggles when opponents don't let him establish his jab and one-two rhythm. James predicts Hernandez will win a decision by outworking Strickland over five rounds.

"I think Fluffy Hernandez has a lot of volume... he's going to walk forward, shoot takedowns, throw kicks, throw punches... I believe that is the way to offset Shawn's game entirely."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Pereira will be dangerous in the opening five minutes, but Hernandez has done a great job wearing opponents down, keeping them in the clinch, taking them down, and utilizing submission attempts. Hernandez will wear Pereira down and get a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think that Hernandez has done a great job in terms of finding ways to wear opponents down keep them in the clinch take them to the ground Matt return them utilize a ton of submission attempts but eventually wear …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The Guru picks Pereira despite acknowledging Hernandez's grappling skills. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and body work will be too much, predicting an early finish by TKO or submission. He notes Pereira has finished all his middleweight opponents quickly and envisions Pereira stuffing a takedown, landing knees to the body, and getting a guillotine or rear-naked choke.

early finish, TKO or submission, body work
"I'm going to go Mel P I think he's two athletic too strong too powerful"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because of his insane speed at middleweight, which he believes Hernandez will not be ready for. He acknowledges that if Hernandez survives the early onslaught, he will likely take over with pressure and grappling, but Zane trusts Pereira's athleticism to get the job done early. He notes that Pereira has learned to pace himself after the Tristan Connelly loss, but still has that loss in him.

Pereira opened at +132, now +115; Hernandez opened -147, now -128
"I am gonna take Pereira cuz he's just so goddamn fast at middleweight"
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:23 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 34 of 77 44% 39 of 82 3 of 14 21% 2 0 4:05
Roman Kopylov 0 35 of 57 61% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 20 of 42 47% 23 of 45 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:05
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 29 55% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 35 40% 16 of 37 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:00
Roman Kopylov 0 19 of 28 67% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 34 of 77 44% 28 of 68 4 of 6 2 of 3 24 of 65 8 of 10 2 of 2
Roman Kopylov 35 of 57 61% 21 of 43 8 of 8 6 of 6 34 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 20 of 42 47% 16 of 35 3 of 5 1 of 2 13 of 35 6 of 6 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 14 of 35 40% 12 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 19 of 28 67% 13 of 22 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)

Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

under 2.5 rounds (potential)
"I'm going to pick Roman kopilov he's got good takedown defense hopefully his get up game has improved a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.

Hernandez by submission, round 2, anaconda choke
"give me Anthony Hernandez to win this fight by second round submission and I think it's going to be an anaconda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.

"I guess I would lean towards a dog shot on kopov but but yeah it really comes down it's like is Fluffy going to be able to get those takedowns early and often and I wouldn't be surprised if he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lock picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.

"I think this is a slam dunk... I think that the true price of this fight might sound crazy, I think fluffy Hernandez should be a minus 350 minus 400 favorite here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.

"I'll have to lean Hernandez here getting a third round submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.

"for me the pck is Fluffy Hernandez all right."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.

"I'm going Anthony Hernandez over Roman Kopylov... I think he'll be able to outgrapple him and I love his grappling."
TKO (elbows and punches) R3 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 51 58% 33 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 63 of 88 71% 77 of 105 6 of 15 40% 4 0 7:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 25 of 42 59% 27 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:23
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 15 of 27 55% 17 of 30 2 of 8 25% 2 0 2:29
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 4 of 8 50% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 28 of 39 71% 39 of 50 3 of 6 50% 2 0 3:54
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 20 of 22 90% 21 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 30 of 51 58% 21 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 35 11 of 14 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 63 of 88 71% 55 of 79 4 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 33 8 of 8 40 of 47
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 25 of 42 59% 17 of 34 7 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 27 10 of 13 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 15 of 27 55% 13 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 19 6 of 6 2 of 2
2 Anthony Hernandez 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 28 of 39 71% 22 of 33 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 13 2 of 2 19 of 24
3 Anthony Hernandez 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 20 of 22 90% 20 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-240), Shahbazyan (+200)

Round 1
It’s an all-California middleweight rumble in the co-main attraction, as the resurgent Shahbazyan (12-3, 5-3 UFC) looks to halt the impressive but brief win streak of “Fluffy” Hernandez (10-2, 1 NC; 4-2 UFC). Finish rates of 92% for the former and 80% for the latter mean that while the judges might not be needed for the bout’s duration, referee Herb Dean very well may be required. Before the action begins, the two 185ers try to touch gloves and miss, so they abandon it. Shahbazyan lands the first blow with a right hand, and Hernandez responds with a takedown entry. Shahbazyan loads up with a right hand to hurt “Fluffy” and bends him over, and Hernandez backs away to the wall as Shahbazyan unloads with a series of punches. Hernandez backs away, shells up, sticks his tongue out and counters. Hernandez then goes for a takedown, and he gets tossed out of the way and tagged with a serious jab from his foe. Shahbazyan steps in with a one-two that knocks Hernandez back, and Hernandez rolls with it to take away the worst of it but he cannot buy a takedown at this point. Shahbazyan counters an entry with a knee and stands his foe up when trying, and he scores an elbow and looks to counter with a takedown of his own. Hernandez jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and he bails on it to stand when it is not close. When both are up again, Shahbazyan kicks his foe in the chest, and Hernandez gives chase and drills him the face with a right hand. Hernandez jams his man into the wire, where he looks for a body lock takedown or a throw. Hernandez chains his attempt to a single, and he runs his foe from one side of the cage to the other but cannot ground him. Shahbazyan defends well and plants a knee on the chest, and Hernandez slashes an elbow over the top to cut open the left eyebrow. Hernandez shoots and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, and he turns all the way through it to get out. Shahbazyan rolls to his back to go after an armbar, and he loses the grip and winds up in choke danger on his own side. Hernandez looks for a modified arm-in guillotine choke, and he lets it go so that he can take the fight down on his own terms. Shahbazyan works his way up, and he eats a few elbows and succumbs to a double with 20 seconds to spare. Hernandez sets up a rear-naked choke while his foe is seated, and Shahbazyan stands up and takes a knee on the chin before the horn sounds to end the wild frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and Hernandez lands a punch, a kick and shoots in for a takedown. When Shahbazyan turns it around on him, Hernandez goes for his unorthodox guillotine again. Shahbazyan turns through to get to a knee, and he stands up and pushes off with a right hand. The two trade jabs, their pace slowed momentarily, and Hernandez chains a jab into an elbow. When Shahbazyan backs into the cage, Hernandez rings his bell with a straight right hand. This leads to a tie-up, and both men fight to get a takedown and drop to a knee. Shahbazyan drops down for a single, and Hernandez dumps him on his face, turns the corner and hits a double. Hernandez lets him sit up so he can punch him in the face, and he stays pinned to a fatiguing Shahbazyan and looks to pick him up and throw him down again. Shahbazyan stands up and gets kneed in the chest, and he is fading fast as Hernandez is on him, smothering him or landing punches. Hernandez grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and he flips his foe over to full mount. When Shahbazyan scrambles, Hernandez transitions the choke to another side, and then to an anaconda. Shahbazyan escapes them all, winding up on top, but Hernandez is on him with another guillotine in the blink of an eye. Hernandez takes his back and looks for a choke, all while working Shahbazyan over with elbows when he can find one. Hernandez goes for another one of his strange guillotine chokes, and he lets it go to take the back and fish for a rear-naked choke. Shahbazyan turns and defends properly, but he cannot get Hernandez off of him. Hernandez sits up with fierce punches and elbows, and he thumps Shahbazyan with elbows to the head, body and thigh until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez

Round 3
The fighters have reached the last round, and Hernandez reintroduces himself to his foe with a head kick. It does not take more than about 12 seconds for Hernandez to hit a takedown, and he sits up and starts belting the spent Shahbazyan with punches and elbows.
The elbows from “Fluffy” have opened up another cut on the face of his opponent, and he sits up and keeps beating on his doomed adversary. Hernandez, seeing that he has Shahbazyan at the end of his rope, slashes down with elbows and adds in few punches to seal the deal. Dean, seeing that Shahbazyan is completely cooked, intervenes for a merciful stoppage
, saving the young fighter from any further punishment. “Fluffy” made a seriously statement to the rest of the middleweight division with this gutsy performance, and he might have a number next to his name next week, now celebrating four stoppages in row.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 1:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez confidently, citing his superior grappling and high takedown volume. He notes that while Hernandez's control could be better, Shahbazyan struggles to get back to his feet when taken down. He considers Hernandez safe for parlays.

"fluffy is the pick and is potentially safe for parlays so I'm pretty confident in Anthony Hernandez to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to submit Edmen Shahbazyan in the second round. He calls it a terrible matchup for Shahbazyan, who has historically faded in later rounds. Hernandez is known for his cardio, pressure, and wrestling, and should break Shahbazyan. He notes Shahbazyan is dangerous early but expects Hernandez to weather the storm and finish him in the second.

submission in round 2
"give me Hernandez to break Emma Shabazz and I'll take Hernandez second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio, noting he averaged 8 takedowns in his last two fights. He contrasts Shahbazyan's tendency to fade after the first round and poor takedown defense. He expects Hernandez to wear Shahbazyan down with chain wrestling and secure a late finish or dominant decision.

"I have to go with the favorite here with Hernandez and I'm gonna have to trust him a little bit this week."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Connor picks Shahbazyan, citing his much cleaner striking and the potential to finish Hernandez early. He acknowledges the risk of Hernandez's pace but believes Shahbazyan's improved camp (ditching Tiverdian, sparring with Sean Strickland, training at Xtreme Couture) and his composed performance against Lungiambula are good signs. He thinks Shahbazyan could easily knock Hernandez out or tune him up, and that Hernandez's wide-open striking leaves opportunities for Shahbazyan to land clean shots.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Shahbazyan. I just think he's so much more a dynamic threat that he could just as easily crush Hernandez very much like Kevin Holland did."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Levi confidently picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez. He highlights Hernandez's relentless takedown game, noting he landed 16 takedowns in his last two fights (8/11 vs Josh Fremd, 8/14 vs Marc-André Barriault). He believes Hernandez will survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round and then break him with pressure and grappling, as Shahbazyan has historically faded past the first round. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's durability concerns (body shots) but thinks his wrestling and cardio will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go with Anthony fluffy Hernandez to defeat Edmund shabazian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host is very confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a smash spot. He believes Hernandez's relentless forward pressure, cardio, and grappling will drown Shahbazyan, who has cardio issues. He predicts a submission in round two, noting that if Shahbazyan doesn't get an early KO, Hernandez will take over.

round two by submission
"I love Hernandez in the spot... I feel like stylistically if he can evade that big punch punching power early he's gonna drown shabazzian and finish him later on in this matchup no doubt about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul agrees, citing Hernandez's improved pace and cardio, and the stylistic advantage of his wrestling against Shahbazyan's suspect takedown defense. He notes that Shahbazyan's cardio issues are likely to be exploited, leading to Hernandez dominating later rounds.

"it's Hernandez for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, calling him a style designed to beat Edmen Shahbazyan. He highlights Hernandez's pace-pushing wrestling and scrambles, which he believes will get into Shahbazyan's head. He notes Shahbazyan's demons may creep in as the fight goes on, and that Hernandez is a nightmare matchup. He acknowledges a chance Shahbazyan wins by first-round TKO but expects Hernandez to overcome early danger and win.

"I'm going with Anthony Hernandez ... he's sort of like the new Pace pushing wrestler on the Block in that division"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Shahbazyan's historical issues with pace and grappling pressure will resurface. He notes that Hernandez has one of the best gas tanks and pushes a relentless pace, which is exactly the kind of problem Shahbazyan has struggled with. Even with Shahbazyan's improved camp and confidence from his last win, Zane needs to see more than a win over Dalcha Lungiambula to trust him against a pressure fighter like Hernandez.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Hernandez here. I just think this seems like the exact kind of problem that Shahbazyan has had so often."
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 39 of 60 65% 58 of 84 8 of 14 57% 2 0 8:45
Marc-André Barriault 0 25 of 53 47% 34 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 34 55% 25 of 42 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:04
Marc-André Barriault 0 13 of 29 44% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 23 78% 31 of 39 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:06
Marc-André Barriault 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:35
Marc-André Barriault 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 39 of 60 65% 31 of 52 8 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 35 8 of 12 13 of 13
Marc-André Barriault 25 of 53 47% 16 of 44 9 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 42 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 19 of 34 55% 15 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 23 5 of 8 3 of 3
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 18 of 23 78% 15 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9 3 of 4 10 of 10
Marc-André Barriault 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez because he is a superior grappler who should get takedowns against Barriault, who has been taken down by lesser grapplers. He notes that Barriault is the better striker, so Hernandez must be careful on the feet. Angelo believes Hernandez's path is clear: takedowns and control.

"i like fluffy to get the takedowns to get the win but he's definitely gonna need to be careful on his feet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by decision. He highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling (5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with 70% accuracy) and cardio. Brady notes that Barriault has poor takedown defense but a good get-up game, so Hernandez may not hold him down for long. However, Brady believes Hernandez's pace and pressure will wear down Barriault, and he expects Hernandez to wrestle his way to a decision victory. He also mentions that the striking should be competitive, with a slight edge to Barriault.

decision
"give me fluffy hernandez to win give me fluffy hernandez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody thinks Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Barriault. He notes Barriault's recent losses and that he was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani. Cody expects Hernandez to grind out a decision or possibly get a submission.

Hernandez by submission +300
"i feel like hernandez just get on him like a dog on a bone wrestle him to the ground be relentless press him up against the cage tire him out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Levi picks Marc-André Barriault at plus 155 odds, placing one unit. He likes Barriault's move to Sanford MMA, improved takedown defense, and body attack potential against Hernandez, who has shown vulnerability to body shots. He thinks Barriault's output and cardio can carry him in a close fight, but acknowledges Hernandez's submission threat and grinding style. He sees value in the underdog.

Bet one unit on Marc-André Barriault moneyline at +155
"I took andre barrio plus 155 i can't say i'm super confident but what i can say is that i think it has the potential to be a very very close fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Jacob is all-in on Hernandez, noting that Barriault's takedown defense is poor and that Hernandez is a better wrestler than Jordan Wright, who was about to dominate Barriault before getting caught in a guillotine. Jacob believes Hernandez will not make that mistake and will dominate the wrestling. He thinks the -174 odds are good value.

"i'm all in on anthony hernandez and i think it's a pretty good value too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez will drown Barriault with his wrestling and pace, similar to a poor man's Cain Velasquez. Barriault is not a big finisher and Hernandez's durability is the only question mark. If Hernandez stays conscious, he will win via takedowns and pressure. Barriault's heavy strikes will be countered with level changes. Hernandez by decision at +200 is a good spot.

Hernandez by decision at +200
"Anthony Hernandez will drown him with that wrestling he'll drown him with that pace and I think that even the big shots that are coming coming back from the Barrio side will be countered with level changes and takedowns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul leans Hernandez, noting Barriault's takedown defense issues. He thinks Hernandez can wrestle and potentially submit him. He mentions the prize picks line of 3 takedowns for Hernandez and thinks that's achievable.

"fluffy should be able to just at least match barrio's pace if it's on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez by decision. He is impressed by Hernandez's pace and grappling, especially after his win over Josh Fremd. He thinks Barriault relies on outpacing opponents but won't be able to outpace Hernandez. He notes Barriault has been KO'd by Chidi Njokuani and struggled against durable fighters. He expects Hernandez to take over in later rounds with heavy grappling and improved striking, winning a close 29-28 decision.

"i'm gonna go anthony hernandez decision win based on the last two rounds"
WIN vs Josh Fremd
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 48 of 71 67% 91 of 124 8 of 11 72% 3 0 10:45
Josh Fremd 0 31 of 54 57% 43 of 67 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 17 of 31 54% 26 of 44 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:12
Josh Fremd 0 16 of 30 53% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 13 of 17 76% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:42
Josh Fremd 0 13 of 20 65% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:37
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 23 78% 40 of 49 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:51
Josh Fremd 0 2 of 4 50% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 48 of 71 67% 39 of 62 8 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 25 5 of 9 34 of 37
Josh Fremd 31 of 54 57% 16 of 37 13 of 15 2 of 2 15 of 35 12 of 14 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 17 of 31 54% 13 of 27 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 17 4 of 8 6 of 6
Josh Fremd 16 of 30 53% 7 of 20 7 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 21 6 of 8 1 of 1
2 Anthony Hernandez 13 of 17 76% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 11
Josh Fremd 13 of 20 65% 8 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 12 5 of 5 2 of 3
3 Anthony Hernandez 18 of 23 78% 15 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 20
Josh Fremd 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo gives a slight edge to Anthony Hernandez due to his UFC experience and better pure BJJ. He acknowledges Josh Fremd's athleticism and potential, but notes the short notice and nerves for Fremd. He calls Fremd one of the most live underdogs on the card.

"i do think that the fact that this is short notice there's probably going to be some nerves here for josh ... i think anthony's ufc experience i think those factors do give anthony hernandez the slight edge here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission. He expects Fremd to land big shots early but Hernandez to take over with pace and cardio, eventually finishing Fremd. He notes Hernandez's submission game is very good, having submitted Rodolfo Vieira, and that Fremd is coming in on short notice.

second round submission
"give me anthony hernandez second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Cody leans towards Fremd as an underdog, thinking the price is wrong. He notes Fremd's wrestling, cardio, and cleaner striking, and that Hernandez has been inactive and has a questionable chin. Cody acknowledges Fremd got knocked out by Rodrigues but thinks he can outwork Hernandez. He signs up for Fremd as a low-confidence dog.

"sign me up for for frab and this is going to be really low on the prp list"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Levi praises Josh Fremd's offensive skills (calf kicks, jab, knees) and size, but criticizes his tall man's defense and tendency to get dropped. He likes Anthony Hernandez's experience, toughness, and submission game (guillotine, d'arce). He thinks Hernandez can capitalize on Fremd's defensive openings but is not crazy about laying -200, so he passes on betting.

fight doesn't go the distance (minus 500, too expensive)
"i do lean anthony hernandez i'm just not crazy about laying -200 in a spot against a very game guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

I love Hernandez as a prospect; he reminds me of a prime Cain Velasquez with pressure and grappling. I think he will push the pace from the start, land takedowns, and get a finish via ground and pound or submission. The fight not going to decision is one of my favorite lines. I see him getting his hand raised inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision -350
"I love Hernandez... I think we're going to see him start to recapture that as he starts stringing a couple wins together... I think he gets that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul passes on this fight, saying it terrifies him too much. He notes Hernandez's submission win over Vieira was due to fatigue, and that Fremd got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues. Paul doesn't like Hernandez at -200 and doesn't see enough in Fremd to bet. He considers the under but doesn't commit.

"i'm never gonna end up betting anthony hernandez at minus 200 against anybody in the ufc"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, noting that Josh Fremd is on short notice. He expects Fremd to start well but fade, with Hernandez getting a third-round submission or TKO. He highlights Hernandez's toughness and ability to survive dangerous positions.

third round finish prediction
"i'm gonna go with anthony hernandez in the late rounds by like third round submission or tko"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.

"I am going to lean Anthony Hernandez here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.

fifth round knockout
"I'm going to go with Hernandez here. I'm going to take him to win by fifth round knockout TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"You have to pick Anthony Hernandez. He's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.

submission, round 4 or 5
"look for him to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and really putting it on to and as long as he can eat a few big shots early that are definitely going to land from I think it's just a matter of time before Hernandez breaks Deise and eventually leads …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.

Dolidze wins by submission or TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Roman Dizzier. ... I think Ditzi's got a perfect anti-grappler style."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"Yeah, he's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
Comments (2)
BR
brian 9 months, 3 weeks ago

Roman took a beating, couldn't cheat his way out of it

BR
brian 9 months, 4 weeks ago

Roman is all over the place