UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 6"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Gabriella Fernandes
3.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
5.31 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.42 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Julija Stoliarenko
2.74 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.45 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.78 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Gabriella Fernandes
Moneyline
FanDuel -450
KO/TKO
BetRivers +200
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
FanDuel +250
Julija Stoliarenko
Moneyline
FanDuel +350
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2800
Submission
BetWay +700
Decision
FanDuel +1300
Gabriella Fernandes - Fight History
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
KO R1 3:11 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 1 25 of 66 37% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gabriella Fernandes 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 1 25 of 66 37% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gabriella Fernandes 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 3 of 6 6 of 6 25 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 8 of 33 24% 3 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 3 of 6 6 of 6 25 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 8 of 33 24% 3 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.

"I'm going to lean Gabriella here because I think the threat of power and Casey's long layoff... might have her a little timid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.

Fernandes by decision
"I'm going to lean Fernandez here. ... I think she wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.

"Casey O'Neill for me. I think she gets the win here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.

"I'll take O'Neal too. At least I do feel I can trust her to play her game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.

"I'm going to lean ever so slightly towards the physicality, the activity and the ever-improving and evolving game of Gabriella Fernandez to be the difference here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.

decision
"I'm going to go with the latter of the two here as O'Neal wins by judges decision pulling off the upset there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.

"I'll pick Gabriela Fernandes, but I have next to no conviction there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.

decision
"I am going to go with Gabriella Fernandez, though."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.

"I have to pick O'Neal here. Just to swarm, create ugly clinches and make one of those clinches work."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 59 of 114 51% 59 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 61 of 161 37% 64 of 167 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 18 of 43 41% 19 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
3 Gabriella Fernandes 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 24 of 71 33% 26 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 59 of 114 51% 38 of 91 15 of 17 6 of 6 58 of 112 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 61 of 161 37% 28 of 117 13 of 20 20 of 24 56 of 154 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 19 of 45 42% 10 of 35 9 of 10 0 of 0 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 19 of 47 40% 9 of 32 1 of 3 9 of 12 19 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 38 60% 14 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 23 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 18 of 43 41% 9 of 32 1 of 3 8 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gabriella Fernandes 17 of 31 54% 14 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 24 of 71 33% 10 of 53 11 of 14 3 of 4 19 of 66 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her powerful striking and decent jiu-jitsu. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but has sloppy striking and is either armbar or nothing. Angelo believes if Gabriella can defend takedowns, she will beat Julija up and potentially finish her. He started with low confidence but moved to medium confidence.

"I think Gabriella, assuming she could defend the takedowns here, is going to beat the hell out of Julia and potentially finish her."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Big Brady is confident in Gabriella Fernandes, describing Julija Stoliarenko as the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC with only an armbar threat. He notes Stoliarenko has no striking, no wrestling, and has been finished multiple times. Brady believes Fernandes will dominate on the feet and can also do damage on top if the fight goes to the ground. He predicts Fernandes will knock out Stoliarenko in the second round.

second round knockout
"I like Fernandez here. I think she knocks out Ranken. I'll say second round knockout for Gabriella Fernandez."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The host highlights Fernandes' striking advantage and physicality, expecting her to keep the fight standing and pick apart Stoliarenko from distance. He predicts a headkick knockout, showing confidence in a finish.

by KO (headkick)
"I think the striking advantage and physicality of Fernandez will allow her to keep this fight standing where she'll be able to pick apart stolen from distance and eventually line up a headkick to produce a knockout victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her recent win over Wang Cong and her solid jiu-jitsu. He believes Stoliarenko is a finish-or-be-finished fighter but Fernandes has the grappling to avoid submissions. He predicts a first or second round finish for Fernandes.

Fernandes wins by finish in round 1 or 2; also bet on Fernandes fight time under 10 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think she will find the finish in the first or second round here."
WIN vs Wang Cong
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:49 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 46 of 111 41% 48 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 1 18 of 59 30% 19 of 61 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 56 41% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 6 of 26 23% 7 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 1 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 46 of 111 41% 15 of 66 21 of 32 10 of 13 46 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wang Cong 18 of 59 30% 13 of 50 2 of 3 3 of 6 18 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 56 41% 7 of 30 12 of 19 4 of 7 23 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wang Cong 6 of 26 23% 5 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 3 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 55 41% 8 of 36 9 of 13 6 of 6 23 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wang Cong 12 of 33 36% 8 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Angelo is very confident in Wang Cong, citing her kickboxing background and power. He believes Fernandes will struggle with Wang's power and resort to desperate takedowns. He calls it one of his most confident picks on the card.

"Wang should absolutely smoke her here the power is nuts"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Big Brady picks Wang Cong to win by decision. He thinks Wang is the better striker and also has a sneaky path to victory via takedowns, as Fernandes can be taken down and controlled on the mat. Despite the massive -800 line, Brady expects Wang to get it done, likely on the feet or with grappling.

"I like Wong here I think this this Line's crazy but you know Wong should get it done and probably by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Cody agrees, calling Wang a legitimate prospect with world-class kickboxing. He notes that Fernandes has been taken down and outstruck in recent fights, and Wang's physicality in the clinch will be too much. He expects Wang to win big, possibly by knockout or even submission, as she continues to develop her grappling.

"Everybody Wang Kong tonight I agree let's just keep the party rolling"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Connor also picks Wang, comparing her to a more athletic Yan Xiaonan with less experience. He notes that Fernandes is not a great grappler but a physical fighter, and Wang's athleticism and striking should prevail. Connor acknowledges that Wang's ground game could implode under pressure but thinks it's unlikely against Fernandes. He agrees the odds are too wide.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I gotta agree with the Wang pick. It is too wide. Wang has had six pro fights and the best fighter she ever fought was Wu Yanan, who is terribly unathletic."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Daniel Vreeland picks Wang Cong despite the steep -800 line. He highlights her clean kickboxing, having beaten Valentina Shevchenko in a kickboxing match, and her well-rounded game including takedowns. He acknowledges Gabriella Fernandes' power and improving get-up game but sees a clear technique gap. He expects Wang Cong to pick her apart, though not necessarily with a highlight-reel KO.

"I will pick Hong Wong to get this dub I simply think she's cleaner"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

James leans towards Wang Cong as a real prospect, but admits he hasn't done full tape study. He notes Wang's striking and thinks Fernandes is not a great fighter, but the -800 price is too high to bet. He may look for a decision or KO prop after further research.

"right now the pick is Kong Wang I think she could be the real deal"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Paul picks Wang Cong confidently, noting her elite striking and improving grappling. He points out that Fernandes is not a strong grappler and has been outmuscled in the clinch. He expects Wang to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees this as a showcase fight to build her up.

Wang Cong by knockout
"Wang Kong is the pick Wang Kong by knockout probably"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

The MMA Guru picks Wang Cong confidently, citing her aura, power, KO ability, and kickboxing background. He mentions she knocked out Victoria Leonardo and beat Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. He acknowledges Gabriella Fernandes is strong and athletic but lost to Jazzy Decious and Theresa Bleda. He predicts a KO win for Wang Cong.

KO
"I'm GNA have to go with Kong Wang to win this fight and I'm going to say that she gets the KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Zane picks Wang Cong, citing her superior striking speed, power, and form. He notes that Fernandes is a cumbersome striker who will likely get countered repeatedly. Zane also mentions that Wang showed composure when grappled in previous fights, which should help against Fernandes' physical but not elite grappling. However, he warns that Wang is untested and the odds are too wide.

Wang opened -667, now -862; some books as wide as -1200. Fernandes opened +418, now +605. Zane says 'it is too wide' and notes Wang has only had six pro fights.
"I gotta take Wang. It is really hard for me to see Fernandes walking forward throwing arm punches by the bucket and not think that she will get countered over and over again really hard."
WIN vs Carli Judice
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 169 of 323 52% 186 of 345 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:04
Carli Judice 0 119 of 234 50% 126 of 245 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 63 of 143 44% 64 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carli Judice 0 43 of 91 47% 44 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 27 of 51 52% 40 of 69 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:45
Carli Judice 0 41 of 67 61% 45 of 73 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:52
3 Gabriella Fernandes 0 79 of 129 61% 82 of 132 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Carli Judice 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 169 of 323 52% 110 of 251 42 of 55 17 of 17 149 of 297 20 of 26 0 of 0
Carli Judice 119 of 234 50% 89 of 198 21 of 25 9 of 11 95 of 200 24 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 63 of 143 44% 41 of 114 14 of 21 8 of 8 55 of 133 8 of 10 0 of 0
Carli Judice 43 of 91 47% 36 of 81 5 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 77 9 of 14 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 27 of 51 52% 19 of 40 6 of 9 2 of 2 23 of 45 4 of 6 0 of 0
Carli Judice 41 of 67 61% 32 of 58 7 of 7 2 of 2 28 of 51 13 of 16 0 of 0
3 Gabriella Fernandes 79 of 129 61% 50 of 97 22 of 25 7 of 7 71 of 119 8 of 10 0 of 0
Carli Judice 35 of 76 46% 21 of 59 9 of 11 5 of 6 33 of 72 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.

"Gabriella is going to be the pick but this is a razor thin fight that should be 50/50"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.

"I'm going to take Gabrielle Fernandez to have a coming out party for once instead of spending 12 minutes off her back."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.

"I think that Gabriela Fernandez uh gets back on track here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.

"This should be a Gabriella play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.

"I do think the power explosiveness and physicality of Fernandez will end up being the Difference Maker in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.

"for me it's going to be CF do win in doubt CF do."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.

"I'll go Karly judis over gabriellea Fernandez"
LOSS vs Tereza Bledá
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tereza Bledá 0 57 of 99 57% 181 of 235 3 of 10 30% 0 0 10:51
Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 47 48% 47 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tereza Bledá 0 13 of 35 37% 56 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:02
Gabriella Fernandes 0 6 of 13 46% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tereza Bledá 0 14 of 21 66% 38 of 47 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:29
Gabriella Fernandes 0 2 of 4 50% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Tereza Bledá 0 30 of 43 69% 87 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:20
Gabriella Fernandes 0 15 of 30 50% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tereza Bledá 57 of 99 57% 38 of 70 12 of 18 7 of 11 17 of 56 7 of 7 33 of 36
Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 47 48% 11 of 34 5 of 6 7 of 7 22 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tereza Bledá 13 of 35 37% 5 of 21 3 of 7 5 of 7 7 of 29 2 of 2 4 of 4
Gabriella Fernandes 6 of 13 46% 1 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tereza Bledá 14 of 21 66% 9 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 10
Gabriella Fernandes 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tereza Bledá 30 of 43 69% 24 of 35 4 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 21 0 of 0 20 of 22
Gabriella Fernandes 15 of 30 50% 10 of 24 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Angelo is torn on this fight. He notes that Tereza Bledá has the grappling blueprint to win, but she is only 21 and could get overzealous. Gabriella Fernandes is a powerful striker and a plus 235 underdog, which feels wide. Angelo mentions a prop bet idea: if Jasmine wins, bet on Gabriella inside the distance/decision no action. He hasn't pulled the trigger yet and is waiting for props to drop.

if Jasmine wins bet on Gabriella inside the distance decision no action
"Gabriella Fernandez honestly might be a solid Underdog here at plus 235 because she's got the hands and Teresa Blazer is only 21 years old"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Big Brady picks Tereza Bledá to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Fernandes is skilled on the feet with fast kicks and power, but has terrible takedown defense and ground game. Bledá can wrestle and grapple, and her ground and pound is dangerous. Brady recalls that Jasmine Jasudavicius almost finished Fernandes from crucifix, and Bledá is more dangerous than Jasudavicius. However, he worries about Bledá's cardio after she gassed in her UFC debut. If her cardio holds or she gets an early finish, she should win easily.

"I'll say blade does get that first round finish takes his fight down to the mat and finishes Gabriella Fernandez shortly after."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Cody picks Bledá but is not confident at the price. He notes she is very strong, can bulldoze into the clinch, and has a path to victory by pressing Fernandes against the cage and scoring takedowns. However, she is only 21, green, and has zero striking. He compares her to Miranda Maverick, who had all pre-fight advantages but none in the fight. He thinks the price is too high for a risky grappling-dependent fighter.

"I'm gonna pick her I think she gets the win but I think if you ran it through Pac-Man's model of plus money underdogs and deal with wmma this is a bad price tag for Teresa Plata"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Connor picks Fernandes, noting that while both fighters are limited, Fernandes is more polished on the feet and has shown decent takedown defense. He worries about Bledá's gas tank and believes if Fernandes can avoid being taken down early, she can outwork Bledá over three rounds. Connor acknowledges Bledá's physical strength but thinks Fernandes's technique and patience will be the difference.

"I think Fernandez has an understanding of some of the basics."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Daniel Levi leans toward Tereza Bledá, citing her takedown ability and top control. He notes Fernandes's poor takedown defense and get-up game. However, he is hesitant because Fernandes has dangerous striking and Bledá's top game may not be as good as Jasmine's. He expects Bledá to win via control but won't bet at the current price.

"I think bladea should get it off top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Bledá is far superior to Fernandes and will eventually get takedowns and grind her out. Fernandes is a striker who struggles off her back. Bledá's cardio is a concern but she should have an easier time corralling Fernandes than she did against Natalia Silva. Bledá wins inside the distance, likely by submission in round 2.

Bledá wins inside the distance, round 2
"I'm gonna go with her winning inside the distance but uh inside the distance probably by round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Paul is hesitant, noting that Bledá's path to victory is to muscle Fernandes against the cage and hold her there, which is risky and relies on judges appreciating cage control. He thinks the price is too high for such a one-dimensional approach. He picks Bledá but is not interested in betting.

"you're kind of like it's a risky you're hoping the judges uh cage side are digging the the cage control"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

The MMA Guru essentially flips a coin for this fight, admitting he has no logical breakdown. He notes Tereza Bledá is 21 with time to improve, and her losses to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Natalia Silva are not bad. He decides to pick Bledá after a failed coin flip, but with no confidence.

"I'm flipping a Sprite can for it... well forget it then we'll go with uh Teresa blader"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Zane picks Fernandes, citing her sharper striking and movement compared to Bledá's raw physicality. He notes that Bledá is young and strong but lacks technique, and Fernandes has the power to hurt her. Zane is concerned about Fernandes's grappling defense but believes she can stuff takedowns and let Bledá tire herself out. He expects Fernandes to win by decision or late TKO if she stays patient.

"I guess for now I'm just going to take that rail to Fernandez until I see something else out of Blader."
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 24 of 54 44% 149 of 215 4 of 8 50% 0 0 11:31
Gabriella Fernandes 0 26 of 56 46% 54 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 8 of 22 36% 44 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:58
Gabriella Fernandes 0 12 of 27 44% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 6 of 12 50% 58 of 80 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:22
Gabriella Fernandes 0 9 of 13 69% 19 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 10 of 20 50% 47 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:11
Gabriella Fernandes 0 5 of 16 31% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 24 of 54 44% 17 of 46 3 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 40 1 of 1 7 of 13
Gabriella Fernandes 26 of 56 46% 10 of 37 8 of 10 8 of 9 25 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 8 of 22 36% 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 12 of 27 44% 5 of 17 3 of 5 4 of 5 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 9 of 13 69% 3 of 7 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 13
Gabriella Fernandes 5 of 16 31% 2 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriella Fernandes Hermogenes vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hermogenes (-125), Jasudavicius (+105)

Round 1
Keeping the prelims pushing forward, two flyweights will enter the cage as Jasudavicius (7-2, 1-1 UFC) collides with Fernandes (8-1, 0-0 UFC). Neither woman has ever been finished, so referee Chris Tognoni is in this for the potential long haul. Although the Brazilian fighter offers a clap of hands, Jasudavicius has no interest in meeting it. The newcomer comes out throwing feet, reaching Jasudavicius a few times with head kicks that collide off the guard but still have an impact. Fernandes scores a solid one-two that shakes up Jasudavicius, but the Canadian gathers her thoughts and plods forward. Jasudavicius scores a single right hand, only to be met with a speedy high kick. Circling on the outside, Fernandes picks at her foe with kicks and reaching punches, all while staying out of the way from most of the offense coming back her way. Fernandes dings the Canadian with a left hand, and she sinks another one in before Jasudavicius rushes forward in pursuit of a clinch. Jasudavicius secures a body lock and looks to take Fernandes for a ride, but the Brazilian fighter keeps her balance and muscles her way to remain standing. While Jasudavicius cannot ground her opponent on the first or second attempt, she doggedly continues to push for it until she drags Fernandes to the mat. Jasudavicius climbs into an awkward half-guard position to keep Fernandes pinned down, and she drops down short left hands to stave off any referee intervention. Fernandes scoots all the way to put her seat against the fence and push off the wall, and Jasudavicius steps over to get to the side and drop down strikes. Before she can unload, Fernandes ties her down with a reverse triangle, keeping her there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fernandes
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius

Round 2
Jasudavicius looks to push the pace to begin the round, only to get stood straight up when absorbing a fierce barrage of punches and high kicks to drive her back and loosen her top. Jasudavicius resets it against the fence, and she times a clean right hand down the pipe to rock Fernandes. The Brazilian woman blinks the stars out and powers Jasudavicius around in the clinch, but she gets bullied back to the wall before long. Like the last round, Jasudavicius calmly works until securing the takedown, and she lands in half guard to flatten Fernandes out. Jasudavicius covers her foe’s mouth and uses shoulder pressure to fluster Fernandes, all while staving off guard recovery attempts from the Brazilian. Jasudavicius slides into side control and grinds her elbow or palm on the face and staying heavy as possible. Fernandes bucks and kicks, but Jasudavicius manages to work a knee up to isolate Fernandes’ right arm and set up a crucifix. Jasudavicius unleashes a storm of short but pummeling elbows on Fernandes’ forehead, doing so until Fernandes partially recovers position. Jasudavicius gets the crucifix again and fastens her legs around Fernandes’ left arm to lock it down further, where she can open up with more elbows on the dome. Each elbow is not individually damaging, but they add up fast and force Tognoni to take a very close look at the action. Fernandes explodes frantically, forcing Jasudavicius to stand up right as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-8 Jasudavicius

Round 3
The ladies start off the final frame swinging ferociously. Fernandes lands with heavy power, getting Jasudavicius’ respect early, but not slowing her down. Jasudavicius plows forward to try to trip Fernandes down, but Fernandes circles on the outside and pops her with a right hand. The Canadian is a woman possessed when going for a takedown, and she scoops Fernandes up with a single and gingerly deposits her on the floor. Fernandes defends with an arm under the neck but no serious guillotine choke, and she sits up against the fence to try to stand up. The Brazilian leans back to try to cinch up the guillotine, and Jasudavicius stays completely calm and punches the side a few times without too much concern for the choke. Jasudavicius moves to side control on the opposite side while Fernandes hangs on, and the Canadian has a possible Von Preux choke should she wish to secure it. Fernandes lets the grip go, and Jasudavicius slides right to half guard to keep the Brazilian flat on her back. This positional control, with light ground-and-pound with a left hand every so often, allows Jasudavicius to peel precious seconds off the clock and virtually guarantee herself a victorious evening. Fernandes defends from most of the ground strikes, keeping her face from eating unnecessary strikes, and she bucks her hips and pushes her feet off the chest to push Jasudavicius back to her feet. Jasudavicius turns the corner and drops down with a surge of powerful hammerfists, and she sways past an upkick and lands hammerfists right to the bell. When time expires, Jasudavicius graciously lifts her former opponent back to her feet, and she runs off triumphantly with her hands in the air.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Jasudavicius)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (30-27 Jasudavicius)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (30-26 Jasudavicius)

The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Gabriella Fernandes via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Fernandes. He emphasizes that Jasudavicius needs to develop a more aggressive mindset to walk through punches and get to her clinch, but she hasn't shown that. He notes that Jasudavicius was put off by Silva's speed and couldn't time her punches, and that she needs a 'Julianna Peña' mentality. He also mentions that Jasudavicius's other loss to Alyssa Kraus is further evidence of her getting scared off her game.

"I'll stick with you on this and go with Fernandez as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Zane picks Fernandes despite acknowledging Jasudavicius has a clear wrestling advantage. He notes that Jasudavicius is a slow, ponderous striker with awkward form, and that Fernandes manages distance well and has good output. He believes Jasudavicius will struggle to close the distance and get to her top game, and that Fernandes is solid enough on the ground to survive. He also points out that Jasudavicius has a history of being put off by opponents who fire back, as seen against Natalia Silva.

"I guess I will take Fernandez, which is unusual when I'm looking at a matchup where one person seems to have a clear wrestling advantage."
Julija Stoliarenko - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 59 of 114 51% 59 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 61 of 161 37% 64 of 167 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 18 of 43 41% 19 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
3 Gabriella Fernandes 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 24 of 71 33% 26 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 59 of 114 51% 38 of 91 15 of 17 6 of 6 58 of 112 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 61 of 161 37% 28 of 117 13 of 20 20 of 24 56 of 154 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 19 of 45 42% 10 of 35 9 of 10 0 of 0 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 19 of 47 40% 9 of 32 1 of 3 9 of 12 19 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 38 60% 14 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 23 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 18 of 43 41% 9 of 32 1 of 3 8 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gabriella Fernandes 17 of 31 54% 14 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 24 of 71 33% 10 of 53 11 of 14 3 of 4 19 of 66 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her powerful striking and decent jiu-jitsu. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but has sloppy striking and is either armbar or nothing. Angelo believes if Gabriella can defend takedowns, she will beat Julija up and potentially finish her. He started with low confidence but moved to medium confidence.

"I think Gabriella, assuming she could defend the takedowns here, is going to beat the hell out of Julia and potentially finish her."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Big Brady is confident in Gabriella Fernandes, describing Julija Stoliarenko as the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC with only an armbar threat. He notes Stoliarenko has no striking, no wrestling, and has been finished multiple times. Brady believes Fernandes will dominate on the feet and can also do damage on top if the fight goes to the ground. He predicts Fernandes will knock out Stoliarenko in the second round.

second round knockout
"I like Fernandez here. I think she knocks out Ranken. I'll say second round knockout for Gabriella Fernandez."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The host highlights Fernandes' striking advantage and physicality, expecting her to keep the fight standing and pick apart Stoliarenko from distance. He predicts a headkick knockout, showing confidence in a finish.

by KO (headkick)
"I think the striking advantage and physicality of Fernandez will allow her to keep this fight standing where she'll be able to pick apart stolen from distance and eventually line up a headkick to produce a knockout victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her recent win over Wang Cong and her solid jiu-jitsu. He believes Stoliarenko is a finish-or-be-finished fighter but Fernandes has the grappling to avoid submissions. He predicts a first or second round finish for Fernandes.

Fernandes wins by finish in round 1 or 2; also bet on Fernandes fight time under 10 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think she will find the finish in the first or second round here."
LOSS vs Luana Carolina
TKO (punches) R3 4:52 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 66 of 136 48% 138 of 230 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:27
Julija Stoliarenko 0 16 of 59 27% 21 of 68 1 of 5 20% 3 0 3:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 12 of 32 37% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Julija Stoliarenko 0 6 of 25 24% 6 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:46
2 Luana Carolina 0 25 of 55 45% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Julija Stoliarenko 0 10 of 28 35% 14 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
3 Luana Carolina 0 29 of 49 59% 60 of 89 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:25
Julija Stoliarenko 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 3 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 66 of 136 48% 41 of 96 15 of 26 10 of 14 28 of 75 13 of 20 25 of 41
Julija Stoliarenko 16 of 59 27% 7 of 40 6 of 10 3 of 9 11 of 51 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 12 of 32 37% 6 of 20 3 of 7 3 of 5 7 of 27 4 of 4 1 of 1
Julija Stoliarenko 6 of 25 24% 2 of 17 1 of 3 3 of 5 5 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luana Carolina 25 of 55 45% 13 of 38 6 of 9 6 of 8 14 of 36 4 of 6 7 of 13
Julija Stoliarenko 10 of 28 35% 5 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 3 6 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 29 of 49 59% 22 of 38 6 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 12 5 of 10 17 of 27
Julija Stoliarenko 0 of 6 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Angelo picks Julija Stoliarenko to win but strongly advises against betting on her. He compares her to Malcolm Gordon, a previous 'cash cow' that lost. He notes that Stoliarenko's path to victory is getting a takedown, but she is not a good fighter overall. He emphasizes that Luana Carolina is the better fighter overall but has been taken down frequently, which could be exploited.

No bet advised; warns against betting on Stoliarenko despite picking her
"I'm going to pick Julia to win because Lena Carolina has been taken down many times... but there's not a world where I spend money on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Big Brady picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by first-round armbar. He notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with 10 wins by armbar, all in the first round. He believes her aggressiveness and improved wrestling will cause problems for Luana Carolina, who has questionable decision-making and has almost been submitted in recent fights. He expects the fight to hit the mat, where Stoliarenko is extremely dangerous.

first round, submission (armbar)
"give me stoia Rano it's weird seeing her as a favorite ... I'll say she does get that armar in the first round and gets the job done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Cody picks Stoliarenko by submission, calling it the play of the week. He notes Stoliarenko's elite armbar from guard and Carolina's poor takedown defense and physical strength. He expects Stoliarenko to get the fight to the mat and submit her quickly.

Stoliarenko by submission +205
"stinko sub is the play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Stoliarenko's persistence and expertise in armbars should be too much for Carolina. Once Stoliarenko snatches an arm, it's only a matter of time before she gets the tap. Carolina's takedown defense is improving, but Stoliarenko's strength and Judo will likely get the fight to the ground.

Under 2.5 rounds is plus 120 and could cover a Carolina finish, but host expects Stoliarenko by submission.
"I like sto Reno here I wish he was the underdog cuz you know I don't really like to invest too much into a fighter that only has that One path to Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Paul picks Stoliarenko by submission, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Carolina's vulnerability to takedowns and Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He thinks the plus-205 price is excellent value.

Stoliarenko by submission +205
"stinko sub plus 205 at one book right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko, questioning whether Stoliarenko is actually good or just benefited from Molly McCann's poor ground game. He notes Carolina has better standup and overall ability, and that Stoliarenko has a rough weight cut at 125. He expects Carolina to win, likely as an underdog.

likely as an underdog
"I'm gonna go with Lanna Carolina over J Juliana Julia steno... I'm going to go with Lanna karolina I reckon she's got some time to improve herself as a fighter... likely as an underdog."
WIN vs Molly McCann
Submission (armbar) R1 1:55 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julija Stoliarenko 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Molly McCann 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julija Stoliarenko 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Molly McCann 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julija Stoliarenko 6 of 16 37% 1 of 11 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Molly McCann 9 of 29 31% 4 of 20 2 of 3 3 of 6 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julija Stoliarenko 6 of 16 37% 1 of 11 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Molly McCann 9 of 29 31% 4 of 20 2 of 3 3 of 6 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Angelo is extremely confident in Molly McCann, calling this a showcase fight. He believes she will win, possibly by stoppage, and suggests she could be parlayed. He notes the odds are -400 but thinks she could be even more favored.

suggested as parlay piece
"Molly McCann's going to win this fight I don't know if it's gonna be by stoppage but she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Big Brady picks Molly McCann to win by first-round knockout, but predicts Stoliarenko will miss weight. He notes Stoliarenko is dangerous on the ground with armbars but has no striking or wrestling. He thinks McCann will keep it standing and knock her out. He calls it a setup fight for McCann in London. He is concerned if the fight goes to the mat.

first round knockout
"Molly McCann first round knockout my goodness"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Cody thinks McCann wins by out-volume and avoiding takedowns. He notes Stoliarenko's path is submission only, and the sub prop at +350 is too short for him. He would only bet Stoliarenko sub at +500 or better.

would bet Stoliarenko sub at +500 or better
"I think Molly meatball McCann out volumes out Tufts uh uh solo renko she just has to avoid getting taken down and subbed in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Daniel is very confident Molly McCann will win, calling Stoliarenko 'one of the worst fighters on the roster'. He believes Molly is better on the feet and can take Stoliarenko down as long as she avoids the armbar. He expects a highlight-reel finish and notes the line at -190 is good value to fade Stoliarenko. He dismisses comparisons to high-level grapplers like Erin Blanchfield, stating Stoliarenko is not on that level.

Daniel says 'it's less than minus 200 to fade one of the worst fighters on the roster' and expects a highlight-reel finish.
"I think Molly is gonna bust this girl up gonna get a highlight real finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Molly McCann

The host picks Molly McCann, citing her speed, striking advantage, and ability to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges the danger of Stoliarenko's armbar but believes McCann can avoid it. He predicts a knockout win and mentions waiting for a better price around -200.

by knockout, waiting for better price around -200
"give me model McCann by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Paul sees this as a setup for McCann, noting Stoliarenko is 1-5 in the UFC and her only win is over a retired fighter. He thinks McCann is popular in the UK and will be re-motivated after a loss to Blanchfield. He expects McCann to roll, though he jokes about a first-round armbar loss.

"I think this is an absolute setup for Molly McCann to go out there and roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Molly McCann

The MMA Guru picks Molly McCann, noting Dana White's investment in Barstool fighters. He praises McCann's toughness, chin, and scrappy style, and believes she can keep the fight on the feet. He criticizes Julija Stoliarenko's recent losses and lack of success unless she gets the fight to the ground. The Guru predicts McCann will win a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.

"I'm going with Molly McCann over Julius dolorenko"
TKO (punches) R1 4:15 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chelsea Chandler 0 12 of 27 44% 20 of 36 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:19
Julija Stoliarenko 0 38 of 70 54% 47 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chelsea Chandler 0 12 of 27 44% 20 of 36 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:19
Julija Stoliarenko 0 38 of 70 54% 47 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chelsea Chandler 12 of 27 44% 5 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 38 of 70 54% 34 of 64 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 43 0 of 0 21 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chelsea Chandler 12 of 27 44% 5 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 38 of 70 54% 34 of 64 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 43 0 of 0 21 of 27
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chelsea Chandler vs. Julija Stoliarenko

Round 1
In a pre-planned catchweight affair at 140 pounds, proud Lithuanian Stoliarenko (10-6-2, 1-4 UFC) wants to keep her modicum of momentum going after winning her first UFC appearance after five tries. She faces off against promotional newcomer Chandler (4-1, 0-0 UFC), plucked from the Invicta ranks but with the Diaz brothers in her camp. Referee Jacob Montalvo watches on as the two decide not to touch gloves, and instead they want to go after it early. Chandler lands a kick, and when she lines up a punch, Stoliarenko plods forward and takes her down. Within seconds, Stoliarenko shifts right into full mount, and she transitions into her favorite armbar setup. Chandler is wise to it, and she flips Stoliarenko over and breaks up the armlock before it is secured. The Stockton, Calif., native unloads with ground-and-pound when she is safe from submission harm, and she hammers Stoliarenko with several powerful blows. Stoliarenko kicks off the fence to get out of the bad situation, and finds her way back to the feet. Chandler catches her with a clean right hand as Stoliarenko resets, and Stoliarenko staggers back and looks to get her feet back beneath her. Stoliarenko is marked up from absorbing strikes, and slightly wobbled on the feet, and Chandler is loading up on heavy strikes. When Stoliarenko shoots in for a takedown, she drops to her knees and is bowled over. Chandler moves immediately into mount, and she makes Stoliarenko pay for the takedown try. Stoliarenko bucks and lifts her legs up high, and in doing so, she forces Chandler to climb back upright. Stoliarenko desperately shoots for a takedown, and Chandler hip tosses her to the mat and raises her arms up in typical Diaz-esque fashion. Stoliarenko stands up and backs off, and when she attempts another takedown, Chandler easily pushes her to her back and moves to mount.
Sensing that the Lithuanian is starting to wilt, Chandler turns it up to 11 and starts battering Stoliarenko with heavy punches. The shots are getting through and Montalvo is right there paying attention. Chandler keeps bombarding her doomed opponent with relentless fists, and Montalvo steps in to rescue Stoliarenko from further harm.
The Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu product has just announced herself to the promotion in a big way, putting away a woman that had not been stopped with strikes since 2014.

The Official Result
Chelsea Chandler def. Julija Stoliarenko R1 4:15 via TKO (Punches)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Cody leans towards Julija Stoliarenko, noting her dangerous armbar and improved striking. He is concerned about Chandler's size and the catchweight, but believes Stoliarenko's submission threat is real. He prefers the submission prop but may wait for weigh-ins to assess size discrepancy.

Stoliarenko by submission +300
"I'll lean towards her ever so slightly the plus 350 like you said on the submission makes the most sense"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Paul picks Julija Stoliarenko by submission, noting her specialty is the armbar and she has shown improvement in her overall game. He acknowledges Chandler is bigger and has some jiu-jitsu, but believes Stoliarenko's experience and ability to capitalize on mistakes will be key. He suggests waiting for a better price on the submission prop.

Stoliarenko by submission +300; may wait for better price
"stinko sub is uh is is my plan of attack on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

The MMA Guru leans toward Julija Stoliarenko, noting her specific skill set of armbars and judo. He thinks she can take Chandler down and control her on the ground, possibly submitting her. He is less confident because Chandler is untested and has a thyroid issue affecting weight cut, but he believes Stoliarenko has faced better competition. He calls it a pick'em fight.

"I'll take Julia I guess... she has brought some good people."
Submission (armbar) R1 0:42 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julija Stoliarenko 0 9 of 16 56% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica-Rose Clark 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julija Stoliarenko 0 9 of 16 56% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica-Rose Clark 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julija Stoliarenko 9 of 16 56% 6 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 1
Jessica-Rose Clark 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julija Stoliarenko 9 of 16 56% 6 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 1
Jessica-Rose Clark 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jessica-Rose Clark

Angelo picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her slick striking and evolving grappling. He notes that Stoliarenko has zero wrestling and poor takedown accuracy, making it unlikely she can get the fight to the ground where she is dangerous. He believes Clark's cleaner striking will allow her to cruise to a decision.

Moneyline bet at -140
"I absolutely love jessica rose clark in this fight i already snatched up a moneyline bet at -140 on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jessica-Rose Clark

Big Brady picks Jessica-Rose Clark but is hesitant due to Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He notes Clark is the better striker and should implement a wrestling game plan like Alexis Davis did, but worries about Clark's submission defense. He expects Clark to win by decision if she avoids the armbar.

Clark by decision
"give me rose clark to win i'm gonna take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Cody thinks Stoliarenko is better on the feet and has submission threats. He notes Clark's takedowns could lead to armbar opportunities for Stoliarenko. He picks Stoliarenko but isn't confident enough for a Shoei bet.

"I'm gonna take Julia Sterly estenko and I'm not even confident enough to be like chewy bet on this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jessica-Rose Clark

Daniel Levi picks Jessica-Rose Clark, believing she is better everywhere except against the armbar. He notes that Clark has a history of making mental mistakes, such as in her last fight where she did the one thing they trained not to do. He is wary of Stoliarenko's armbar specialty but thinks Clark should win if she fights smart. He does not bet due to recency bias and lack of trust.

No bet; burned before on Clark.
"the pick is jessica rose clark but i am not betting it at the betting window"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Stoliarenko is a submission specialist with 8 of 9 wins via armbar. Clark can be sloppy on top and Stoliarenko will threaten submissions from her back. Clark's win over Sarah Alpar may be overvalued; she was exposed by Stephanie Edgar. Stoliarenko's armbar is a live threat at plus money.

submission prop at +350
"i'm gonna bank on another stoliorenko armbar victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Paul leans toward Stoliarenko, noting her submission skills and striking. He thinks Clark's best path is to clinch, but Stoliarenko can win on the feet or via submission. He recommends taking the moneyline rather than props.

"I would take the under one and a half uh takedowns for jrc all lean towards her on the money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jessica-Rose Clark

The MMA Guru picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her improved grappling training at AKA and her ability to use it against Julija Stoliarenko, who has been outgrappled repeatedly in the UFC. He notes Stoliarenko has nothing off her back and expects Clark to cruise to a 30-27 unanimous decision with top control.

"i feel as though jessica rose clark is going to be too good on the feet maybe it'll be equal on the feet but i reckon her grappling is going to get her to win here"
LOSS vs Alexis Davis
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexis Davis 0 85 of 120 70% 171 of 218 1 of 1 100% 0 0 9:09
Julija Stoliarenko 0 56 of 113 49% 93 of 154 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexis Davis 0 22 of 26 84% 63 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:52
Julija Stoliarenko 0 3 of 3 100% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
2 Alexis Davis 0 38 of 60 63% 38 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 45 of 96 46% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexis Davis 0 25 of 34 73% 70 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:17
Julija Stoliarenko 0 8 of 14 57% 28 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexis Davis 85 of 120 70% 55 of 86 9 of 12 21 of 22 41 of 64 1 of 1 43 of 55
Julija Stoliarenko 56 of 113 49% 40 of 94 14 of 17 2 of 2 51 of 108 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexis Davis 22 of 26 84% 22 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 22 of 26
Julija Stoliarenko 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Alexis Davis 38 of 60 63% 14 of 33 5 of 7 19 of 20 37 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 45 of 96 46% 32 of 81 13 of 15 0 of 0 44 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexis Davis 25 of 34 73% 19 of 27 4 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 21 of 29
Julija Stoliarenko 8 of 14 57% 6 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Angelo picks Alexis Davis as the veteran with experience and fight IQ. He notes Davis is a busy striker with a one-to-one striking differential, but she loses only to top-ranked opponents. Stoliarenko has great jiu-jitsu but poor wrestling and striking. Angelo expects Davis to dominate with combinations and avoid submission threats.

"i gotta go with the vet here i'm going with alexis davis to use her experience and use her fight iq to grind out what i think will pre a pretty one-sided win for her"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Davis has better striking, pace, and ground game. He thinks Stoliarenko is not on Davis's level. He is confident Davis wins but acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable.

"gotta go with my girl uh the alley gator alexis davis"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Daniel Levi picks Alexis Davis but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Davis is a veteran with experience, but she has lost four of her last five and is 38. Stoliarenko is known for armbars off her back. Levi thinks Davis should win but the -240 price is too high, so he advises passing or taking the dog. He picks Davis but says it's not a betting opportunity.

"the pick is davis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Lock of the Night picks Davis, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Stoliarenko's only path is armbar, but Davis is a tenured black belt. He expects Davis to win via decision or possibly finish. He likes Davis by decision at even money.

Davis by decision +100
"i think davis absolutely wipes estolia right quick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Paul thinks Davis has superior skills everywhere and should win easily. He notes that Stoliarenko's only threat is an armbar, but Davis is a veteran who should avoid that. He is confident Davis wins by decision and likes the Davis by decision prop.

Davis by decision (even money)
"davis by decision is even money i think that's a pretty solid bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

The MMA Guru picks Alexis Davis, calling her underrated despite her record. He notes she has had close fights with top fighters like Viviane Araujo and Jennifer Maia, but often loses due to being cut by bigger shots. He dismisses Julija Stoliarenko as 'hot trash' and predicts a 30-26 decision win for Davis, with a 10-8 third round.

decision, 30-26
"i'm going to go with alexis davis here... i think she's going to win the first two rounds outland uh julius dollarenko in those first two rounds dominate her get the takedown"
LOSS vs Julia Avila
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julia Avila 0 48 of 91 52% 107 of 163 1 of 4 25% 1 2 3:31
Julija Stoliarenko 0 40 of 94 42% 60 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julia Avila 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Julia Avila 0 17 of 30 56% 42 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:28
Julija Stoliarenko 0 10 of 24 41% 21 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:34
3 Julia Avila 0 2 of 3 66% 36 of 46 1 of 2 50% 1 1 3:03
Julija Stoliarenko 0 3 of 5 60% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julia Avila 48 of 91 52% 31 of 72 11 of 13 6 of 6 42 of 84 2 of 3 4 of 4
Julija Stoliarenko 40 of 94 42% 27 of 73 5 of 9 8 of 12 37 of 88 3 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julia Avila 29 of 58 50% 21 of 49 7 of 8 1 of 1 28 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 27 of 65 41% 18 of 49 3 of 7 6 of 9 27 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julia Avila 17 of 30 56% 8 of 20 4 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 4
Julija Stoliarenko 10 of 24 41% 6 of 19 2 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Julia Avila 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Angelo picks Julia Avila, reasoning that Stoliarenko will accept being on her back, throw up submissions but not get any, and end up losing a decision. He notes Avila is a heavy-handed brawler who is aggressive on top. He advises staying away from Avila in betting due to high price but likes the over on strikes.

over on strikes (more/more)
"in my opinion i think avila is the is the play here because i think stoliarenko will accept being on her back throw up tons of submissions not get any of them and end up losing a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Big Brady picks Julia Avila to win by KO, citing her massive striking advantage and strength. He warns against going to the ground with Stoliarenko, who has eight armbar wins, but believes Avila can keep it standing and finish. He notes Stoliarenko's poor wrestling and that she has been finished by strikes in half her losses. He would not bet Avila at -400 but expects her to win.

by KO, would not bet at -400
"i'll take a villa i'm actually going to take her to win by ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Cody picks Avila, noting her athletic background and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Stoliarenko's level of competition and one-dimensional armbar game. He thinks Avila's striking and top game will be too much, and Stoliarenko's only path is pulling guard, which plays into Avila's strength. He is confident but acknowledges the price is high.

"i'm gonna go ahead and say i'm going with julia"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Jacob picks Julija Stoliarenko, citing her judo throw into armbar that she has done many times. He mentions that Joe Todora says Avila is his girl so he will stay away from her. Jacob is confident Stoliarenko finds a way to get the submission.

"i think we all picked story renko last time and and we're pretty confident about it listen joe todora says that avila is his girl so i'll stay away from her i got respect for joe tadora what's up man …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Avila should keep the fight on the feet and overpower Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko is dangerous off her back with armbars, so Avila must be careful. Avila will look for a knockout via ground and pound after dropping her. The under 2.5 rounds is intriguing as both are live for finishes. However, Avila at -345 is not a betting recommendation.

Under 2.5 rounds plus 135 to plus 155
"I'm actually gonna go with uh avila by second round tko probably by ground and pound after dropping her... the only spot that i'm going to be looking at is the under two and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Paul picks Avila, noting Stoliarenko's poor UFC debut and limited skills. He thinks Avila's wrestling and striking are superior. He is not excited about the -360 price but sees Avila as a safe play. He mentions that Stoliarenko passed out on the scale in their previous booking, which is a red flag.

"avalo was supposed to like there were some offers and stuff i believe from like some bigger camps for her to go train"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Julia Avila

The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila, noting her better record, competition, and technique. He highlights her hands and combination punching, referencing her first-round finish of Gina Mazany. He also points out Stoliarenko's severe weight cut issues (fainting on the scales twice) as a major red flag, making Avila the safer bet.

"i'm gonna go with julia avila i went with her the first time she's got a better record fought better competition"
LOSS vs Yana Kunitskaya
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Kunitskaya 0 43 of 57 75% 209 of 254 1 of 2 50% 0 0 13:16
Julija Stoliarenko 0 6 of 26 23% 30 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Kunitskaya 0 8 of 12 66% 64 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:22
Julija Stoliarenko 0 2 of 8 25% 18 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
2 Yana Kunitskaya 0 23 of 26 88% 92 of 108 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:44
Julija Stoliarenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Yana Kunitskaya 0 12 of 19 63% 53 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:10
Julija Stoliarenko 0 3 of 16 18% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Kunitskaya 43 of 57 75% 20 of 34 20 of 20 3 of 3 8 of 19 29 of 32 6 of 6
Julija Stoliarenko 6 of 26 23% 5 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Kunitskaya 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 4 7 of 8 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yana Kunitskaya 23 of 26 88% 11 of 14 10 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 1 18 of 20 5 of 5
Julija Stoliarenko 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yana Kunitskaya 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 14 4 of 4 1 of 1
Julija Stoliarenko 3 of 16 18% 2 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Big Brady picks Kunitskaya but is not confident enough to bet her. He believes she is the better striker and can win by staying off the ground, but worries she might take Stoliarenko down, which plays into Stoliarenko's submission game. He compares it to the Balbina vs Jojua fight where a similar mistake led to a loss. He predicts a decision win for Kunitskaya.

"i'm assuming kunsa kaya is smart enough to not do that but at this point we just don't know with women's mma so uh kunzakaya by decision but you know big big big pass um from a betting perspective there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Daniel Levi picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by submission, specifically an armbar. He acknowledges that Yana Kunitskaya is the better fighter overall but believes she is prone to getting submitted, as seen in her past fights. Levi notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with many first-round finishes, and he expects her to pull guard and secure the submission at some point during the fight.

submission by armbar
"i'm actually going to go with the upset i think that julia stoliarenko gets a fluke arm bar"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Kunitskaya is technically superior with good kickboxing and range control. However, she struggles in the pocket and can be pressured. Stoliarenko is a brawler with devastating elbows and a dangerous armbar from the clinch. The line at -235 is too wide; Stoliarenko offers value at +200. Kunitskaya likely wins by decision if she keeps it at range, but Stoliarenko could finish.

Stoliarenko moneyline +200, Stoliarenko inside distance
"I'm going to take Kunitskaya to win by decision but the value side by far is Julia here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

The MMA Guru picks Yana Kunitskaya because she has good clinch control and can hold opponents against the cage, as seen in her fight with Aspen Ladd. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is taking the fight on short notice and went to a split decision against a lesser opponent. He believes Kunitskaya's clinch work will be the difference.

"i believe that yana kunitskaya is going to win this one julia stoliorenko has beaten some good girls outside the ufc but went to a split decision"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her powerful striking and decent jiu-jitsu. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but has sloppy striking and is either armbar or nothing. Angelo believes if Gabriella can defend takedowns, she will beat Julija up and potentially finish her. He started with low confidence but moved to medium confidence.

"I think Gabriella, assuming she could defend the takedowns here, is going to beat the hell out of Julia and potentially finish her."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Big Brady is confident in Gabriella Fernandes, describing Julija Stoliarenko as the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC with only an armbar threat. He notes Stoliarenko has no striking, no wrestling, and has been finished multiple times. Brady believes Fernandes will dominate on the feet and can also do damage on top if the fight goes to the ground. He predicts Fernandes will knock out Stoliarenko in the second round.

second round knockout
"I like Fernandez here. I think she knocks out Ranken. I'll say second round knockout for Gabriella Fernandez."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The host highlights Fernandes' striking advantage and physicality, expecting her to keep the fight standing and pick apart Stoliarenko from distance. He predicts a headkick knockout, showing confidence in a finish.

by KO (headkick)
"I think the striking advantage and physicality of Fernandez will allow her to keep this fight standing where she'll be able to pick apart stolen from distance and eventually line up a headkick to produce a knockout victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her recent win over Wang Cong and her solid jiu-jitsu. He believes Stoliarenko is a finish-or-be-finished fighter but Fernandes has the grappling to avoid submissions. He predicts a first or second round finish for Fernandes.

Fernandes wins by finish in round 1 or 2; also bet on Fernandes fight time under 10 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think she will find the finish in the first or second round here."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 9 months, 3 weeks ago

Dull fight