vs
+210 -250
UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 5' 7"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Andre Fili
3.88 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
4.34 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.32 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Christian Rodriguez
3.85 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.85 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.75 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Andre Fili
Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
BetMGM +750
Submission
Unibet +3000
Decision
Unibet +430
Christian Rodriguez
Moneyline
FanDuel -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
FanDuel +460
Decision
FanDuel +125
Andre Fili - Fight History
LOSS vs Jose Delgado
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 141 43% 70 of 154 4 of 6 66% 0 1 0:59
Jose Delgado 0 94 of 169 55% 103 of 179 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Jose Delgado 0 23 of 46 50% 26 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 18 of 39 46% 19 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:11
Jose Delgado 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
3 Andre Fili 0 25 of 63 39% 32 of 74 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:25
Jose Delgado 0 41 of 61 67% 43 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 141 43% 46 of 121 11 of 13 5 of 7 61 of 139 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 94 of 169 55% 37 of 99 34 of 47 23 of 23 83 of 153 9 of 14 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 19 of 39 48% 15 of 32 2 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 23 of 46 50% 7 of 26 7 of 11 9 of 9 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 18 of 39 46% 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 1 18 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 30 of 62 48% 9 of 35 15 of 21 6 of 6 22 of 49 6 of 11 2 of 2
3 Andre Fili 25 of 63 39% 15 of 53 7 of 7 3 of 3 24 of 61 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 41 of 61 67% 21 of 38 12 of 15 8 of 8 38 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his spectacular striking and talent. He acknowledges Delgado's takedown defense issues but dismisses them because 'Las Vegas doesn't care about wrestling.' He notes that Andre Fili has been wrestling more lately but chooses not to warn viewers, implying that wrestling won't be scored heavily.

"Jose's going to be the pick. He's got to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He loves Delgado's power and aggression, and criticizes Fili's chin and striking defense (51%). He believes Delgado will come forward with reckless abandon and knock Fili out early, calling it the best fight on the card.

"I think he knocks out Feeley and I think he knocks him out in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Cody picks Delgado confidently, citing his knockout power and improved cardio. He notes Fili's path is wrestling, but Delgado's knees and takedown defense are deterrents. He expects Delgado to catch Fili eventually.

"I got Delgato all day long. We'll talk about what could go wrong of course, but I think Delgato is prime for a knockout win here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado, agreeing that Fili will get caught taking pictures. He notes Delgado's flow state striking and that Fili's defensive habits make him vulnerable to being timed.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Feli is going to get caught taking pictures, as you say."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

James picks Rolando Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He believes Delgado's dynamic striking, speed, and power will be too much for the older Fili, who has been knocked out early in recent fights. He notes that if Delgado doesn't finish early, Fili can compete over three rounds, but his prediction is a round one stoppage.

"I see Jose Delgado knocking him out in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The host picks Delgado to win by knockout, citing his power and speed. He believes Delgado's striking will be too much for Fili, who is inconsistent and aging. However, he is hesitant about the high price and would prefer a line closer to -185. He suggests looking at the KO prop if it offers value.

Delgado by KO (if prop at +150 or better)
"I think Delgato finds a chin and and gets the knockout win here, but it's tough to get behind minus 340."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Delgado's power and the old guard being replaced. He thinks Fili's wrestling path is possible but Delgado is working on it. He expects Delgado to win.

"I'm on the same page um with that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Jose Delgado

The Guru picks Jose Delgado, citing his finishing ability and size. He thinks Fili is finishable and may switch off in clinch exchanges, where Delgado can land elbows or knees. He predicts a nasty finish, noting Delgado's previous wins over Connor Matthews and Destroyer.

Prediction: finish (elbow, spinning elbow, or knee)
"I'm going to go with Jose Miguel Delgado... I think he'll destroy him. And I think he'll get a finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane picks Delgado, citing his fluid combination punching and ability to catch Fili when he gets predictable. He notes Fili tends to get finished when facing dynamic finishers, and Delgado is a natural puncher.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Delgado is just too fucking fluid on the attack."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 64 of 182 35% 74 of 193 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 83 of 174 47% 95 of 190 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 22 of 63 34% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 64 45% 29 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
2 Andre Fili 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 56 51% 30 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Andre Fili 0 19 of 50 38% 24 of 56 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 25 of 54 46% 36 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 64 of 182 35% 52 of 164 6 of 10 6 of 8 62 of 179 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 83 of 174 47% 49 of 130 8 of 13 26 of 31 69 of 157 13 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 22 of 63 34% 19 of 56 1 of 4 2 of 3 22 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 64 45% 13 of 43 4 of 6 12 of 15 28 of 63 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Andre Fili 23 of 69 33% 18 of 62 2 of 3 3 of 4 23 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 56 51% 17 of 40 3 of 5 9 of 11 27 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 19 of 50 38% 15 of 46 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 25 of 54 46% 19 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 40 11 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)

Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)

The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.

"I think I'm going to lean Andre here. This is a pick that I might change later in the week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.

second round submission
"I like Rodriguez here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I have to pick Andre Fili."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.

by submission, odds comment: would be happy to pull the trigger at -180 range
"I think he is the technically superior fighter. It's just a size advantage of Rodriguez constantly fighting at 145 lbs when he should be down at 135. That gives me some cause for concern, but I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.

"I'm going with Andre Philly. Crafty vet performance. Little bit too big. Little bit too physical. This is my underdog of the card."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I think I'm going to go with you. I want my gut says pick Rodriguez, but it does really feel like his game is not made to beat veterans right now."
Submission R1 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Andre Fili

Round 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.

by decision
"I'm going toide with the underdog here in in Mel Costa so give me Mel Costa to win the fight I think it's going to be close though I think it's going to be close I think it goes 15"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.

"I believe ph's strength of schedule experience and unorthodox striking approach will be enough for him to shut down the grappling of Costa really touching him up from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards but I wouldn't be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.

"I'm going to have to do it again we ride Andre Philly Pickers we ride again"
WIN vs Cub Swanson
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 111 55% 90 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Cub Swanson 0 67 of 147 45% 70 of 151 2 of 11 18% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Andre Fili 0 30 of 51 58% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Cub Swanson 0 31 of 70 44% 33 of 73 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 111 55% 43 of 86 7 of 11 12 of 14 53 of 101 9 of 10 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 67 of 147 45% 49 of 118 13 of 22 5 of 7 52 of 126 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 31 64% 9 of 18 3 of 4 8 of 9 18 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 42 42% 12 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 12 of 29 41% 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 35 51% 14 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 30 of 51 58% 23 of 41 4 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 31 of 70 44% 23 of 58 5 of 8 3 of 4 24 of 61 7 of 9 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

"I think Fili because he's younger, a little faster... I still side with him here but the line is again..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson here to have like a Robbie Lawler vs Nico Price type retirement moment where he goes out there knocks out Fely puts his gloves down."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

over 2.5 rounds at -110
"I will pick him to win this fight though... I think it's ultimately uh phy who ends wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

"I think it's a pretty clear dogger pass, Cub Swanson for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Andre Philly... TKO"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punches) R1 2:43 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.

might be the best live BET fight on the card
"Dan eay is going to be the pick but low confidence."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.

second round knockout
"I'm going to take Dan EA here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.

fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds, Ige by decision
"I'm gonna go with Dan eay but again it's not like I love the money line specifically because this is going to be a very close competitive fight likely goes to decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.

"I think we'll see the better damage and better productivity come from the Dan eay side which would eventually go out there and allow him to get a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.

Ige by KO round 1 (+850)
"Dan eay on the money line is where I'm going here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.

finish in the second round
"I'm gonna go Dan eay... I think he will find the finish on Andre Philly... chewing up Philly's legs and then finishing him at some point in the second round."
WIN vs Lucas Almeida
TKO (punches) R1 3:32 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.

No bet; both fighters unreliable
"I'm going to take a chance I'm going to shoot my shot on the underdog here I'm going to pick Lucas... there's not going to be a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.

"I'm going to take ALA to win this fight by knockout in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.

Andre Fili by decision
"I'm going to take fely by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.

"give me Lucas Almeida over Andre fely"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.

"I think this is a dog or pass spot... the value lies in Lucas Almeida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.

Fili by decision
"I will ever so slightly lean the fely way I'm not so happy with a chalk in this spot as if fely decides to go out there and strike with Almeida that could spell some trouble for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.

"fely is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Fili by decision (29-28)
"I am going to go with Andre Philly... I'm going to go Andre Philly gets this one done 2928 decision"
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 84 of 148 56% 108 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Andre Fili 1 58 of 151 38% 76 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Andre Fili 0 17 of 49 34% 20 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 10 of 15 66% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Andre Fili 1 17 of 34 50% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:55
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 37 of 64 57% 37 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Fili 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 84 of 148 56% 38 of 90 10 of 18 36 of 40 71 of 123 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 58 of 151 38% 45 of 134 7 of 10 6 of 7 53 of 144 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 69 53% 21 of 48 4 of 7 12 of 14 24 of 44 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 17 of 49 34% 15 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 64 57% 13 of 33 5 of 10 19 of 21 37 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 24 of 68 35% 16 of 58 5 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.

may explore props
"I think a full-blown healthy Nathaniel would probably beats an inconsistent Andre feeling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.

by decision
"give me wood to win this fight I think it's gonna be close potentially even a split decision of this one but I think wood wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"Nathaniel would and like want to say he's one of them more confident picks on the card because I believe he is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.

Daniel bet Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He mentions Wood's volume advantage and Fili's lack of output.
"I took Nathaniel wood at -180 and I played it to win two units"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.

"I do think this is could be his coming out party you know he's deserved one for a while"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.

"give me Nathaniel wood to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes
"I think it comes down to volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.

"Gotta go Nathaniel wood here in my opinion no-brainer"
WIN vs Bill Algeo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 59 of 142 41% 67 of 151 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:18
Bill Algeo 0 81 of 170 47% 151 of 246 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Bill Algeo 0 30 of 61 49% 31 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 32 of 68 47% 32 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Bill Algeo 0 41 of 86 47% 46 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Andre Fili 0 8 of 18 44% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:49
Bill Algeo 0 10 of 23 43% 74 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 59 of 142 41% 48 of 125 6 of 10 5 of 7 59 of 141 0 of 1 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 81 of 170 47% 38 of 113 17 of 27 26 of 30 80 of 168 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 19 of 56 33% 16 of 51 2 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 30 of 61 49% 9 of 37 9 of 10 12 of 14 30 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 32 of 68 47% 25 of 61 4 of 4 3 of 3 32 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 41 of 86 47% 21 of 59 7 of 13 13 of 14 40 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 8 of 18 44% 7 of 13 0 of 2 1 of 3 8 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 1 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.

Moneyline bet at +115.
"i'm going the underdog with bill algio i got a money line bet on him at plus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.

decision
"i'm gonna take bill algae to win by decision but it's going to be super close"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.

"i'm not gonna buy into getting flash ko'd against joe anderson burrito i'm gonna keep with andre feely here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.

Bet one unit on Bill Algeo moneyline at +115
"I actually took algiero one unit at plus 115 simply because i i expect this to be a super competitive close fight and in a coin flip fight give me dog odds all day"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.

"i think he's a better fighter and i think this is a perfect matchup for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.

"I think filio showcased a much better overall game and I think he wins this fight without too much issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.

"andre feely is going to be able to mix in his wrestling get on top he's a little bit stronger in the clinch and i think that's going to help him rack up some points"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.

if you're betting i'd say al joe might end up the favorite... wait until the fight day put some money on philly if he goes into an underdog
"i think i'm going to go with andre feeling decision win"
Christian Rodriguez - Fight History
SCHED vs Hyder Amil
LOSS vs Andre Fili
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 64 of 182 35% 74 of 193 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 83 of 174 47% 95 of 190 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 22 of 63 34% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 64 45% 29 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
2 Andre Fili 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 56 51% 30 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Andre Fili 0 19 of 50 38% 24 of 56 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 25 of 54 46% 36 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 64 of 182 35% 52 of 164 6 of 10 6 of 8 62 of 179 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 83 of 174 47% 49 of 130 8 of 13 26 of 31 69 of 157 13 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 22 of 63 34% 19 of 56 1 of 4 2 of 3 22 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 64 45% 13 of 43 4 of 6 12 of 15 28 of 63 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Andre Fili 23 of 69 33% 18 of 62 2 of 3 3 of 4 23 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 56 51% 17 of 40 3 of 5 9 of 11 27 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 19 of 50 38% 15 of 46 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 25 of 54 46% 19 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 40 11 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)

Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)

The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.

"I think I'm going to lean Andre here. This is a pick that I might change later in the week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.

second round submission
"I like Rodriguez here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I have to pick Andre Fili."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.

by submission, odds comment: would be happy to pull the trigger at -180 range
"I think he is the technically superior fighter. It's just a size advantage of Rodriguez constantly fighting at 145 lbs when he should be down at 135. That gives me some cause for concern, but I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.

"I'm going with Andre Philly. Crafty vet performance. Little bit too big. Little bit too physical. This is my underdog of the card."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I think I'm going to go with you. I want my gut says pick Rodriguez, but it does really feel like his game is not made to beat veterans right now."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez 0 64 of 98 65% 77 of 113 6 of 15 40% 1 1 6:48
Melquizael Costa 0 65 of 105 61% 159 of 208 1 of 2 50% 1 3 4:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 11 of 14 78% 12 of 15 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:07
Melquizael Costa 0 22 of 32 68% 63 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:12
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 24 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 1:42
Melquizael Costa 0 26 of 40 65% 71 of 93 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:24
3 Christian Rodriguez 0 34 of 57 59% 41 of 65 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:59
Melquizael Costa 0 17 of 33 51% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Rodriguez 64 of 98 65% 36 of 69 23 of 24 5 of 5 29 of 53 26 of 31 9 of 14
Melquizael Costa 65 of 105 61% 39 of 72 19 of 25 7 of 8 19 of 47 17 of 23 29 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Rodriguez 11 of 14 78% 3 of 5 8 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3 9 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 22 of 32 68% 5 of 11 15 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 9 8 of 12 10 of 11
2 Christian Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 8 of 16 9 of 9 2 of 2 10 of 18 9 of 9 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 26 of 40 65% 21 of 32 2 of 4 3 of 4 3 of 11 7 of 8 16 of 21
3 Christian Rodriguez 34 of 57 59% 25 of 48 6 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 32 8 of 11 9 of 14
Melquizael Costa 17 of 33 51% 13 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 27 2 of 3 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-148), Costa (+124)

Round 1
If the UFC isn’t careful, a fight might break out in the cage with this next one. Having bounced back from his first career stoppage loss well enough, Rodriguez (12-2, 5-2 UFC) is looking to put himself on another win streak. To get that going, he will have to get past the recently renamed “Melk Cauthy” Costa (22-7, 3-2 UFC), a name more in line with Costa’s preference for the knockout—or, nocaute. Fists are bumped before they are traded, as the featherweights are joined in the Octagon by referee Fernando Salas Navarro. Costa pump-fakes several times to get started, setting up a high kick with it that does not get through. His low kicks do trip up Rodriguez, who hits his knees and bounces back up to tie Costa up against the wall. Rodriguez peppers the ribs with knees on either sides, and Costa responds with short punches to the side of the dome when not fighting to keep his balance. A body lock and trip from Rodriguez allows him to get Costa down for a split-second, only to have to settle for pushing Costa against the wire again. They jockey for position against the wire, and Rodriguez sells out to drag Costa down to the floor as they hit the ground together. They spring right back upright while still in the tie-up, with Costa stomping the toes and kneeing the body. Costa softens the side up with several punches, and Rodriguez finally hits the sweep he was looking for and puts Costa down. Costa gets back up as fast as he can, and he keeps his hand on the ground to defend himself from knees to the head. Rodriguez suddenly snatches up a brabo choke and twirls Costa around, and the Brazilian does not panic in the slightest and not only escapes it, but flips Rodriguez over to establish top position. Costa attacks the body with elbows, and when Rodriguez explodes back upright, Costa chases him with a single strike before the horn sounds to end the close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez is the initial aggressor in the round, taking it to Costa with punches and kicks. Costa pushes off with the ball of his foot, sending Rodriguez down to the mat for a second. Rodriguez jumps back up, elbows Costa in the noggin and initiates the clinch. Costa breaks free and plants a body kick on the side of his foe, and a second comes up short. Rodriguez jabs his way into a right hand, and Costa counters him with a clean right that drops Rodriguez to his knees. Rodriguez regains his footing and clinches heavily, and he fights off a sweep attempt and turns to avoid a slashing elbow when back tied up. They continue to deliver short strikes to one another, and Rodriguez lands his foot sweep and places Costa on his back. Costa returns upright after a second, where he re-engages in a clinch. Rodriguez ducks down for a level change, and Costa knees Rodriguez in the side of the head and hurts him badly. Rodriguez scrambles to try to keep himself in the fight and not taking much more damage, and he lets Costa’s punches rebound off his guard. Costa wraps up an unusual arm-in guillotine choke from the side, partially a bulldog choke, and Rodriguez stays composed and twists out of it. Costa throws Rodriguez to his back, blood streaming down the left eye of “CeeRod,” and he postures up to jack Rodriguez up with elbows and punches. Rodriguez attempts a guillotine off his back to stop Costa from hitting him, but Costa breaks out of it and drops down more strikes including an axe kick to the chest before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Rodriguez races out of his corner to engage, where he kicks his way into close range and sets up a trip. “CeeRod” hits the sweep—the same one he has been attempting the whole fight—and Costa finds himself on his back playing jiu-jitsu. The Brazilian looks for a kimura in hopes of sweeping, and although he takes a clean elbow on the melon, he turns the tables on Rodriguez and takes his back standing. They continue to roll and twist, and Rodriguez keeps Costa tied up and bullies him to the fencing. Rodriguez uses his elbows to fluster Costa from up close when not looking for another sweep, and he takes Costa off his feet for a moment. Costa climbs back up, elbows his foe in the chin and frames off to take a breath. Rodriguez is quick to impose his weight on him, and he trips Costa up again for good measure. Costa stands and avoids an elbow that soars at him, and he gets pulled back to the floor. Rodriguez tries to take his back, and he slides off. “CeeRod” races back to his feet and rails Costa with a right hand, stunning him for a moment and giving him openings to find more punches and a step-in knee. Costa pushes off with a front kick, and Rodriguez shrugs at him. Costa knees him again, but not before getting clipped with a barrage of punches. Costa whiffs on a two-punch flurry and hits his back from an easy foot sweep from Rodriguez. Rodriguez sits up in the guard and drops down hammers, with Costa faded just enough to not offer resistance to force a standup. Rodriguez rains down a bombardment of hammerfists, including one raised from the ceiling all the way to the floor, and the crowd is loving it. Rodriguez keeps hammering away, and Costa survives to make it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Christian Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, noting his excellent wrestling and grappling defense against powerful wrestlers. He thinks Costa's structureless, erratic style will play into Rodriguez's hands, allowing him to show offensive wrestling. However, he cautions that Rodriguez can be too defensive on the feet, as seen against Julian Erosa.

"I'm definitely going to pick him. But I think it stands to be a little bit of a lumpier kind of fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, emphasizing that he is a much better fighter than Costa. He notes that Rodriguez has feasted on raw fighters who expect to blow him out, and Costa's experience and guillotine threat are concerns but not enough to change the pick. Zane thinks Rodriguez deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"I'm definitely gotta pick him. He's just a much better fighter than Costa."
WIN vs Austin Bashi
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez 0 44 of 82 53% 55 of 93 2 of 4 50% 2 2 3:20
Austin Bashi 0 23 of 50 46% 32 of 60 3 of 18 16% 0 0 5:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 7 of 18 38% 9 of 20 1 of 2 50% 2 1 1:14
Austin Bashi 0 8 of 13 61% 11 of 16 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:16
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 14 of 18 77% 19 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:24
Austin Bashi 0 5 of 15 33% 11 of 22 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:44
3 Christian Rodriguez 0 23 of 46 50% 27 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Austin Bashi 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Rodriguez 44 of 82 53% 32 of 68 12 of 14 0 of 0 32 of 66 8 of 12 4 of 4
Austin Bashi 23 of 50 46% 12 of 34 9 of 11 2 of 5 17 of 43 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Rodriguez 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0
Austin Bashi 8 of 13 61% 3 of 7 3 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Christian Rodriguez 14 of 18 77% 13 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2
Austin Bashi 5 of 15 33% 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 2 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Christian Rodriguez 23 of 46 50% 14 of 36 9 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 2
Austin Bashi 10 of 22 45% 7 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Austin Bashi vs. Christian Rodriguez

Round 1
In three of his last four outings, Rodriguez (11-2, 4-2 UFC) has donned his prospect-killer hat while staving off an undefeated opponent. This comes to a head once more for “CeeRod,” as this time he battles Michigan-based up-and-comer Bashi (13-0, 0-0 UFC) in hopes of spoiling one more flawless record. Whether he succeeds or fails, referee Chris Tognoni will be on top of things from start to finish. There is a sporting glove touch to commence the featherweight scrap, and Rodriguez nails the newcomer with a right hand and a flying knee. Bashi takes them on the chin and attempts a takedown, only to be easily stuffed by the underdog. Bashi pushes Rodriguez up against the fence and goes all-in for a takedown, as Rodriguez sets him down in 50-50 position. Rodriguez snatches hold of a power guillotine choke, turning Bashi to the side and wrenching him to the floor. Bashi, still in submission danger, works his way up to his feet, and he wriggles out of the choke and backs Rodriguez off with strikes. Rodriguez feints with loud stomps, drawing reactions out of the newcomer every time. A head kick from Rodriguez gets up quick, and he changes levels to ground Bashi. Rodriguez waits to line up a legal knee when Bashi stands, planting one on the torso and retreating. Bashi follows him, considers a takedown and elects to leap on Rodriguez’ back standing up. Rodriguez controls Bashi’s right arm with both hands, looking to shake Bashi off of him. When he does not fall off, Bashi resets and hooks a triangle around Rodriguez’ hips. Rodriguez fights the leg grip and does not let Bashi get a choke in, and he forces Bashi to release him. Rodriguez pushes back to get enough space to strike, and he follows a strafing Bashi and flusters him with a stomp on the mat before spurring into action. Bashi clings to “CeeRod” where he elevates and dumps Rodriguez to the ground. Rodriguez sweeps him with relative ease, but he does not establish top control as he wishes to engage on the feet. Bashi ties him up with the clinch and pushes him to the wire, but it is Rodriguez who takes advantage of the close proximity with a spinning back elbow. Bashi tags him back with a right hand before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
A calm Rodriguez meanders out of his corner to commence the round, and he skillfully tags Bashi from afar without letting the relative neophyte score much back. Bashi dives in deep for a single and succeeds in putting Rodriguez on his seat, only for Rodriguez to get back up before one second elapses. Bashi goes for a double and scoops Rodriguez off the ground to put him down, and this time, he lowers himself into top position. Rodriguez elbows his man off his back while scrambling, and this allows Bashi to take his back and wrap his legs around the waist again. Rodriguez grips the ankle to turn Bashi about, and he uses elbows to further break the leg grip. Rodriguez peels his foe off of him and knees him in the belly, and he takes an elbow on the break. Rodriguez peppers out a jab and evades a swinging right hand, preparing himself for a takedown that inevitably comes. An irritated Rodriguez falls to his back, and Bashi quickly advances to three-quarter mount so he can hop to the side instead of full mount. Bashi works the body with knees all while maintaining heavy chest pressure, and Rodriguez still turns him around and thwarts a submission setup. Rodriguez pushes Bashi over and nearly sneaks into mount, and he pushes off the back of the neck to stand. Bashi tries to follow him with a spinning back elbow, and he is met with a knee on the jaw. Rodriguez cracks the newcomer with an uppercut and a right hand, and Bashi takes a breath and shoots. Rodriguez sprawls to keep himself upright, turning the corner to put Bashi on his knees. Bashi reasserts going for his takedown attempt, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bashi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bashi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bashi

Round 3
In three of his last four outings, Rodriguez (11-2, 4-2 UFC) has donned his prospect-killer hat while staving off an undefeated opponent. This comes to a head once more for “CeeRod,” as this time he battles Michigan-based up-and-comer Bashi (13-0, 0-0 UFC) in hopes of spoiling one more flawless record. Whether he succeeds or fails, referee Chris Tognoni will be on top of things from start to finish. There is a sporting glove touch to commence the featherweight scrap, and Rodriguez nails the newcomer with a right hand and a flying knee. Bashi takes them on the chin and attempts a takedown, only to be easily stuffed by the underdog. Bashi pushes Rodriguez up against the fence and goes all-in for a takedown, as Rodriguez sets him down in 50-50 position. Rodriguez snatches hold of a power guillotine choke, turning Bashi to the side and wrenching him to the floor. Bashi, still in submission danger, works his way up to his feet, and he wriggles out of the choke and backs Rodriguez off with strikes. Rodriguez feints with loud stomps, drawing reactions out of the newcomer every time. A head kick from Rodriguez gets up quick, and he changes levels to ground Bashi. Rodriguez waits to line up a legal knee when Bashi stands, planting one on the torso and retreating. Bashi follows him, considers a takedown and elects to leap on Rodriguez’ back standing up. Rodriguez controls Bashi’s right arm with both hands, looking to shake Bashi off of him. When he does not fall off, Bashi resets and hooks a triangle around Rodriguez’ hips. Rodriguez fights the leg grip and does not let Bashi get a choke in, and he forces Bashi to release him. Rodriguez pushes back to get enough space to strike, and he follows a strafing Bashi and flusters him with a stomp on the mat before spurring into action. Bashi clings to “CeeRod” where he elevates and dumps Rodriguez to the ground. Rodriguez sweeps him with relative ease, but he does not establish top control as he wishes to engage on the feet. Bashi ties him up with the clinch and pushes him to the wire, but it is Rodriguez who takes advantage of the close proximity with a spinning back elbow. Bashi tags him back with a right hand before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Austin Bashi via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Austin Bashi

Angelo picks Austin Bashi, believing he is a better prospect than those Christian Rodriguez has beaten before. He notes Bashi's well-rounded skills, particularly his grappling and improved striking. He thinks Bashi's wrestling and cardio will be too much for Rodriguez, who has been submitted before. He considers Bashi safe to bet on despite being a UFC debutant.

"I think Austin bashy is better than those other guys because of the Striking first of all ... Austin bashley should win this fight and I think he gets it done and I actually think he's safe to bet on …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Austin Bashi

Big Brady is extremely high on Bashi, calling him the number one prospect from contender series. He notes Bashi is well-rounded, has great cardio, and can wrestle for 15 minutes, unlike previous undefeated prospects who gassed against Rodriguez. He acknowledges Rodriguez has beaten undefeated prospects before, but believes Bashi's cardio and durability will be the difference. He predicts Bashi wins by decision in a close fight.

"I'm going to go Bashi here I'm going to take Bashi to probably win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Austin Bashi

Cody picks Bashi despite the high price, believing his wrestling and youth will overwhelm Rodriguez. He notes Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and weight misses at 135. He expects Bashi to secure takedowns and win two of three rounds.

"for my personal take he's the pick I got Austin bosy to pick up his first UFC win"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez because of his experience and craft, despite being physically outmatched. Rodriguez is an excellent scrambler, patient, and persistent, and he has shown he can outlast stronger opponents like Dulgarian. Bashi is a great prospect, but this is a tough stylistic matchup for him. Connor notes that Rodriguez's boxing and positional grappling are high-level, and he believes Rodriguez's determination and fight IQ will carry him through.

"I just think I'm going to go with Rodriguez."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Austin Bashi

Daniel thinks Rodriguez is in the wrong weight class (too small for featherweight) and has had issues with grapplers who gas, but Bashi has endless cardio and strong grappling. He predicts Bashi will have grappling success and win a decision, similar to Rodriguez's previous fights but without the gas issue. He notes the odds have moved from -190 to -270, making it a pass for betting.

pass on betting due to odds movement
"I'm going to just tell you I'm picking Austin bashy here but minus 270 is trash"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Lucrative James leans toward Christian Rodriguez at plus 250, citing Rodriguez's proven track record against undefeated prospects. He believes Rodriguez is the better striker and has improved his anti-wrestling. He notes that Bashi is a strong grappler but making his UFC debut, which often leads to underperformance. He also mentions that Rodriguez is not a natural featherweight, which is a concern. He hasn't fully decided on a bet yet but sees value.

"I think Cod is the better striker in this matchup right I think if the fight is on the feet cod's going to win and he definitely won't look plus 250"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a good scrambler and defensive grappler who can cause Bashi trouble in establishing dominant positions. He can then get the fight to striking, where he is the cleaner and superior striker, landing more damage and winning on the scorecards.

"I believe Rodriguez is a good enough Scrambler and good enough defensive Grappler that he should be able to cause bashy trouble in terms of trying to establish a dominant position and from there Rodriguez should be able to get …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez as a dog, questioning Bashi's readiness despite his potential. He notes Rodriguez's experience against prospects and Bashi's greenness. He suggests live betting Bashi after round one if he comes out hot.

live bet on Bashi after round 1
"another dogger pass situation here for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Austin Bashi

The Guru picks Bashi, impressed by his wrestling and experience. He notes Bashi's undefeated record (13-0) and better competition compared to Rodriguez's loss to Julian Erosa. He thinks Bashi's standup is better than R. Rosas Jr.'s and predicts a 29-28 decision, with Rodriguez having a good third round but not enough. He warns that Bashi sometimes fails to capitalize on takedowns and is open on the feet.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to side with him to win this fight and I think he'll get it done I don't think he'll get a finish though"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Austin Bashi

Zane picks Bashi despite acknowledging it's the wrong matchup for him. He believes Bashi's athletic upside, endless motor, and physicality will allow him to get early advantages and maintain them. Bashi is stronger and better put together than fighters like Raul Rosas, and he doesn't gas out like Dulgarian. Zane thinks Bashi's superior athleticism and cardio will be the difference, even if Rodriguez is more experienced.

"I am actually going to pick Bashi here."
LOSS vs Julian Erosa
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:49 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)

Round 1
Always willing to either add to his highlight reel or be a part of someone else’s, Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC) and his .500 record come to a head with Roufusport’s Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC). While “CeeRod” holds four wins on the scorecards, three of those have come in his last three outings. On the other hand, the last three walks to the cage for Erosa have ended in the first round. Whether it takes three minute or three rounds to get to a result, referee Nick Berens will be here for it from start to finish. The featherweights bump fists, and Erosa uses a front kick to keep Rodriguez away. Rodriguez passes right past it and puts his hands on Erosa’s face. Erosa is reddened up in a hurry from the quick punches from Rodriguez, and he answers with a pair of looping uppercuts. Erosa flicks out his jab, and Rodriguez dips down and smashes him in the face with a head kick. As they trade, Rodriguez’ mouthpiece goes flying, and Erosa sees it and decides it is time to brawl. They slug it out fast and furiously until Berens finds a moment to replace the gumshield, and they get right back to it. Erosa goads Rodriguez on, and he clips “CeeRod” with a right hand in the midst of a speedy combination. They both connect with powerful blows, and Erosa gets off a strong front kick. Rodriguez kicks his man upside the head, and Erosa tells him to bring it on. Rodriguez does just that. Erosa manages to get Rodriguez to take a step back with his own counters, and his front kick to the chest and face are able to keep the hard-charging Rodriguez relatively at bay. Rodriguez settles down and tosses out a low kick, and Erosa wags his finger at him and rings his bell an elbow. Erosa walks his man down and pounds him in the face with his fists, and Rodriguez responds with a flurry ending with a right hand that staggers Erosa back. Erosa gathers his thoughts and marches forward, a cut opened on the bridge of his nose, and he lets go with a head kick that is blocked. Another elbow from Erosa comes up short, and he catches a kick and bowls and trips Rodriguez to the mat. Erosa scrambles to take Rodriguez’ back and set up a body triangle, and he is quick to consider an armbar instead of going after the neck like usual. Rodriguez defends the possible submission and turns to his knees, and he manages to flip Erosa over. Erosa’s upkicks do not keep Rodriguez off of him, as Rodriguez leaps at him and punches him hard.
Erosa ignores them and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and it is suddenly and surprisingly tight. Erosa tightens his legs around the waist of his foe and turns to the side, and falls to his back to complete the submission. Rodriguez tries to tough it out, but he is forced to surrender with seconds left on the clock.
Erosa sits up and shoves Rodriguez off of him when Berens intervenes, springing yet another upset and adding one more impressive stoppage to his ledger. The victorious "Juicy J" becomes the first fighter to finish Rodriguez as a professional.

The Official Result
Julian Erosa def. Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.

"I do think Christian Rodriguez wins this fight but the odds seem wide two to one favorite 3 to one favorite that seems wide"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.

"Rodriguez just crushes him like first round knockout."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.

by KO
"I'm gonna go Christian Rodriguez here to get it done and continue the big win streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.

"I think Rodriguez is one of the best if not the best prospect on the roster right now and I think you'll showcase it once again by picking up the biggest win of his UFC career"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.

"I'll be going with Christian Rodriguez as well."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez 0 48 of 76 63% 97 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:19
Isaac Dulgarian 0 22 of 44 50% 56 of 89 7 of 16 43% 2 0 9:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Isaac Dulgarian 0 9 of 11 81% 36 of 49 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:48
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 12 of 15 80% 18 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Isaac Dulgarian 0 8 of 11 72% 15 of 18 4 of 6 66% 0 0 4:11
3 Christian Rodriguez 0 35 of 58 60% 74 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:14
Isaac Dulgarian 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Rodriguez 48 of 76 63% 43 of 71 4 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 40 10 of 10 17 of 26
Isaac Dulgarian 22 of 44 50% 17 of 39 2 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 34 1 of 1 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Rodriguez 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Isaac Dulgarian 9 of 11 81% 7 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9
2 Christian Rodriguez 12 of 15 80% 9 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 9 5 of 5 1 of 1
Isaac Dulgarian 8 of 11 72% 5 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Christian Rodriguez 35 of 58 60% 33 of 56 1 of 1 1 of 1 14 of 28 5 of 5 16 of 25
Isaac Dulgarian 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Isaac Dulgarian vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dulgarian (-192), Rodriguez (+160)

Round 1
Finding himself on a bit of a win streak, Rodriguez (10-1, 3-1 UFC) moves up to featherweight after some issues making weight in the past. He will attempt to become the first man to beat ferocious finisher Dulgarian (6-0, 1-0 UFC), who has yet to fight beyond the five-minute mark as a pro. The fast and furious action will be overseen by referee Chris Tognoni, who sharply exhales when the two men touch gloves to engage. Dulgarian flashes out a low kick, and when Rodriguez throws back, he charges like a bull to take the fight down. “The Midwest Choppa” succeeds in putting Rodriguez on his back on the first effort, and he postures up well to smash down with punches and elbows. Dulgarian sits down with a potential guillotine choke setup, and he lets go of it to lower himself down to go after an arm-triangle choke. When Rodriguez scrambles, Dulgarian drops down for an unusual Peruvian Necktie choke with his arm grip beneath his legs. Rodriguez turns through it, and he finds himself in a much deeper Peruvian Necktie. He grits it out, and he turns to put himself flat on his back as Dulgarian resides on top of him in half guard. Dulgarian continues moving until Rodriguez turns over, and he beats Rodriguez every step of the way with movement or strikes. Rodriguez stands back up, and Dulgarian drags him down immediately. Dulgarian clings on from behind, shutting down Rodriguez’ return to his feet. Rodriguez miraculously scrambles to get out of a precarious position, and he works his way back up. The doggedly persistent Dulgarian wrenches his foe down to the mat, and he lands in half guard where he sets up an arm-triangle choke. Rodriguez breaks the choke up, so Dulgarian lays into him with elbows that split his eyebrow open. Rodriguez turns to his stomach, and Dulgarian slams him in the side of the head with hammerfists. Rodriguez flips back over, and Dulgarian laces up an arm-in arm-triangle choke. When he feels the submission is not as tight as he wants it, he lets it go. Rodriguez scrambles to get to his knees, and Dulgarian hops on his back and chucks him down to the floor. Dulgarian softens him up from the sides with punches until Rodriguez stands up by leaning on the wall. Dulgarian reaches his career long professional fight as he completes the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dulgarian
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dulgarian
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Dulgarian

Round 2
The featherweights race out of their corners, and Rodriguez introduces himself with a jump knee that lands on the forehead. Rodriguez snatches up the neck while Dulgarian is surprised, and he jumps guard with a guillotine choke. Dulgarian wriggles his neck free, and he goes back to imposing his wrestling. Dulgarian manages to get control from behind, and Rodriguez turns around to nearly get top position before Dulgarian explodes to his feet. Dulgarian trips Rodriguez up to set him down to his knees, and when Rodriguez stands, he secures an almost immediate mat return. Rodriguez hits his seat and winces, and Dulgarian keeps himself very low to keep Rodriguez grounded. Dulgarian slings him back down to the canvas, where he tries to get back control before Rodriguez posts off his arms to stand up. Dulgarian pressures from behind when Rodriguez walks towards and leans on the cage wall. Rodriguez turns around to put his back to the fence, and he lifts up a knee to the body. Rodriguez lifts up a knee that smacks into Dulgarian’s chin, and Dulgarian thanks him by hurling him to the ground. Dulgarian immediately takes the back, hanging on from an opposite side before Rodriguez works his way upright. Rodriguez manages to get a little breathing room, and he reaches out with punches and an elbow. Dulgarian jabs the body and kicks his foe out, and Rodriguez responds with a short shot that might have stung Dulgarian. Dulgarian goes back to his wrestling, tripping Rodriguez to a knee and leaning on him against the fencing. Tognoni asks for them to stay busy when they stall out, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dulgarian
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dulgarian
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dulgarian

Round 3
Beginning the last round, the pace and intensity of Dulgarian has dialed down a little. Rodriguez lands a few strikes from up close, and he succeeds in staving off two attempts. Dulgarian charges to go after a low ankle pick, and Rodriguez stands up and blasts Dulgarian in the side with a soccer kick. Dulgarian is on his knees, perhaps out of gas, and Rodriguez jumps on his back and easily gets both hooks in. Rodriguez flattens the undefeated fighter out and starts pounding on him from both sides of the head. Dulgarian turns to his back, and Rodriguez welcomes this so he can sit up and start pummeling him. Rodriguez follows his foe while spinning to his stomach, landing pitter-patter shots but not the damaging kind that will like force a stoppage. Rodriguez pops Dulgarian on the side of the head, and when Dulgarian sits up, he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke. Dulgarian survives by grabbing his foe’s gloves, and Rodriguez uses his free arm to land shots on the side of the head. Dulgarian controls one wrist, and he turns around and scoots himself to the fence. Dulgarian finds his way back to his feet with 90 seconds to go, and he is a spent force but still manages to get off a power overhand right. Rodriguez connects with a low kick and walks Dulgarian down, blasting him with a straight right hand to follow. Dulgarian eats a right hand and shoots, and “CeeRod” stops it in its tracks and stands. Rodrigeuz leaps forward with left hands until Dulgarian shoots for a double, and the Rodriguez stuff leads to him searching for a brabo choke. Dulgarian gets hold of a leg and tries to lift Rodriguez up one final time, and Rodriguez elbows him in the side of the head until the horn blares. The scores could go all over the map here, depending on how many 10-8 tallies are awarded.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (28-27 Dulgarian)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (28-27 Dulgarian)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (28-27 Dulgarian)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Isaac Dulgarian via Split Decision (28-27, 27-28, 28-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Isaac Dulgarian

Angelo is surprised Rodriguez is an underdog but thinks Dulgarian is a legit prospect with real wrestling and good striking. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Rosas mauled Rodriguez in the first round before gassing. He believes Dulgarian has better cardio and fight IQ, and will get the job done. He sees this as a true test of Dulgarian's potential.

"I am going to pick Isaac dgeren here I do think he's the real deal and we're about to find out for sure because Christian Rodriguez is the perfect Prospect killer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Isaac Dulgarian

Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian to win by first-round TKO. He is impressed by Dulgarian's wrestling and ground-and-pound, and thinks he can take Rodriguez down and finish him early. He notes Rodriguez's takedown defense is not elite and Dulgarian's pace may be too much.

by first round TKO
"I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Isaac Dulgarian

Cody picks Isaac Dulgarian, despite Rodriguez being a legitimate prospect. He highlights Dulgarian's elite wrestling pedigree (D2 champion, three-time state champ in all styles) and his first-round finishing streak. He notes Rodriguez has missed weight twice and is moving up to 145, which could be a disadvantage against a strong wrestler. He believes Dulgarian's pace and wrestling will be too much.

under 2.5 rounds (-105)
"I like Dulgarian... wrestling pedigree, obviously more accustomed to this weight class."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Lucrative James picks Christian Rodriguez despite acknowledging Dulgarian's early-round dominance and wrestling advantage. He believes Rodriguez will lose round one but come back in rounds two and three due to better cardio, scrambling ability, and superior striking. He also thinks Rodriguez has submission opportunities and trusts him to weather the storm, as he has beaten hyped prospects before.

Rodriguez by decision
"I'm actually gonna come out and pick CR Rod here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

The host considers Rodriguez one of the better prospects but notes he struggled to make 135 lbs and is now fighting at 145 lbs. He expects Rodriguez to give up some takedowns early but provide the most resistance Dulgarian has faced, allowing Rodriguez to work back to his feet and use his superior striking. As Dulgarian slows down, Rodriguez will clamp onto a submission after a poor takedown attempt.

submission
"I think we'll see doarian start to slow down later on in this matchup allowing Rodriguez to eventually clamp onto a submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Isaac Dulgarian

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Dulgarian trains at altitude in Colorado, which should improve his cardio. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down and outmuscled early in fights, and Dulgarian is not the kind of opponent you want to face when moving up. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds (-105)
"I'm with with with you on Dulgarian but under two and a half looks spicy to me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Isaac Dulgarian

The Guru picks Isaac Dulgarian, emphasizing his NCAA Division 2 wrestling credentials and physicality. He criticizes Rodriguez for missing weight multiple times and having size advantages over past opponents. He believes Dulgarian's wrestling will be a level above Rodriguez's previous opponents, and that he will dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Rodriguez has good survivability but doubts he can overcome Dulgarian's pressure.

"I am G to go with Isaac dgeren for many reasons... I think he's going to have too much of an advantage in the physicality and the wrestling credentials."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez 0 83 of 161 51% 92 of 173 3 of 6 50% 2 1 3:12
Cameron Saaiman 0 73 of 175 41% 87 of 192 0 of 5 0% 1 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:36
Cameron Saaiman 0 27 of 69 39% 32 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:25
Cameron Saaiman 0 8 of 19 42% 16 of 29 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:04
3 Christian Rodriguez 0 42 of 84 50% 42 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Cameron Saaiman 0 38 of 87 43% 39 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Rodriguez 83 of 161 51% 64 of 141 18 of 19 1 of 1 63 of 131 13 of 21 7 of 9
Cameron Saaiman 73 of 175 41% 38 of 121 14 of 21 21 of 33 65 of 160 8 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Rodriguez 22 of 50 44% 14 of 42 8 of 8 0 of 0 19 of 44 3 of 6 0 of 0
Cameron Saaiman 27 of 69 39% 12 of 44 7 of 9 8 of 16 23 of 61 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Christian Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 17 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 15 3 of 3 7 of 9
Cameron Saaiman 8 of 19 42% 4 of 12 1 of 2 3 of 5 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Christian Rodriguez 42 of 84 50% 33 of 74 8 of 9 1 of 1 35 of 72 7 of 12 0 of 0
Cameron Saaiman 38 of 87 43% 22 of 65 6 of 10 10 of 12 34 of 80 4 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Christian Rodriguez (140: Missed Weight) vs. Cameron Saaiman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-142), Saaiman (+120)

Round 1
A catchweight appetizer gets the blood pumping on the main card, as Saaiman (9-0, 3-0 UFC) puts his undefeated record on the line against Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) at 140 pounds. Rodriguez missed weight by a whopping four pounds and was fined a percentage of his purse. Smith serves as the referee. No glove touch. Rodriguez presses forward and clips Saaiman with a right hand. Saaiman eats a knee, and Rodriguez flurries with punches. Rodriguez connects with a spinning backfist, ducks return fire and secures a takedown. He threatens with an anaconda choke, but Saaiman escapes. They return to their feet. Saaiman finds the mark with a body kick, but he is losing the striking battle at this point. Rodriguez follows a knee to the body with an elbow upstairs. Rodriguez lands another collar-tie knee. Saaiman probes forward with his jab, but the output is not where it needs to be yet. Rodriguez bleeding from a cut near his left eye. Saaiman pieces together a combination, started by his jab. Saaiman misfires on two spinning attacks. He shoots on a takedown in the closing seconds but goes nowhere.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez

Round 2
Saaiman delivers an inside leg kicks, then throws a left hook upstairs. Rodriguez commands the center of the cage. Saaiman slams another kick into the Roufusport rep’s tight. Rodriguez narrowly misses a knee and shuts down an attempted takedown. He sprawls on a follow-up takedown, makes another pass at an anaconda choke but surrenders top position. Saaiman sets up in full guard and scrambles to the back. Rodriguez springs a reversal, climbs to the back and secures his position with a body triangle. Punches follow. Saaiman scrambles free, moves to the back and slides off. This has turned into a scramblefest. Rodriguez slips behind Saaiman and settles in a kneeling position before threading the needle with punches. Saaiman rolls into a heel hook, but Rodriguez defends without issue and wheels behind him. They finish on the feet.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez

Round 3
Rodriguez paws with his jab from the center of the cage. Saaiman lands a low kick, then eats a left hook to the body. Saaiman clinches but releases Rodriguez into open space. A jab from Rodriguez buckles Saaiman’s knees. Saaiman backs him up with punches, connects with an uppercut and clangs a wild overhand left off the side of his head. Rodriguez lands an elbow in close quarters, circles on the outside and steps back into the pocket. Saaiman lets his hands go and throws in an inside leg kick. Rodriguez connects with a one-two. Rodriguez tosses the unbeaten prospect to the mat but allows him to get back to his feet. Saaiman circles on the outside, connects with another leg kick, eats a knee up the middle and answers with punches. He closes with a one-two and a spinning back kick to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Cameron Saaiman—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Angelo picks Cameron Saaiman as an underdog, believing Christian Rodriguez is overvalued after beating a 'high school kid' (Raul Rosas Jr.) who gassed. He thinks Saaiman's technical striking and potential wrestling could be key, but he's not sure if Saaiman will commit to wrestling. He plans to bet on Saaiman if the line moves favorably, possibly taking plus 3.5 rounds.

Considering plus 3.5 rounds bet on Saaiman
"I'm going to go ahead I am going to pick Cameron here uh low confidence type pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman by close decision. He likes Saaiman's higher volume striking and cardio, and thinks his grappling is competitive. He sees it as a well-matched fight but leans Saaiman slightly due to his higher ceiling. He will not bet this fight.

"I'm going to take Cameron Simon to win this fight I just feel like I'm higher as a whole on Cameron Simon"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his proven track record against prospects (beating Joshua Weems, competitive with Jonathan Pearce). He notes Rodriguez's excellent cardio, solid striking, and ability to escape bad positions. Cody contrasts Saaiman's rawness and tendency to get taken down, and believes Rodriguez's high fight IQ and grappling will be the difference.

"Sign me up for Christian Rodriguez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

The host picks Christian Rodriguez confidently, citing his technical advantages in striking, grappling, and Jiu-Jitsu. He notes Rodriguez's clean combinations and discipline, and expects him to exploit Saaiman's technical flaws. He predicts a decision win for Rodriguez.

"give me Rodriguez and I'm going to take Rodriguez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody, pointing to Saaiman's struggles against wrestlers (e.g., losing to Cody Stamann via takedowns). He notes that Rodriguez is more complete at this stage and has shown he can bully opponents on the ground. Paul expects Rodriguez to mix in takedowns and control the fight.

"I got Christian Rodriguez as the guy who's maybe just a little bit more ready right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman as an underdog over Christian Rodriguez. He believes Saaiman is better on the feet, more dynamic and versatile, with higher finishing potential. In grappling, he thinks Saaiman is more vicious with ground and pound, while Rodriguez is more positional. He also notes Saaiman is younger, taller, and more active, having taken no damage in his last fight.

"I'm going to go with Cameron Simon on the grappling department and on the feet I think he's way better than chrisan Rodriguez"
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez 0 2 of 19 10% 2 of 19 3 of 16 18% 1 0 4:50
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 29 of 52 55% 83 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 7:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 3 of 8 37% 1 0 4:02
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 2 of 6 33% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:48
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 4 of 6 66% 24 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:37
3 Christian Rodriguez 0 2 of 15 13% 2 of 15 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 23 of 40 57% 50 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Rodriguez 2 of 19 10% 2 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 3 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 29 of 52 55% 26 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 4 of 7 21 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 2 of 6 33% 1 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 1
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Christian Rodriguez 2 of 15 13% 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 3 2 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr. 23 of 40 57% 23 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 20 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Christian Rodriguez * vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas (-225), Rodriguez (+190)

Round 1
Of the 26 competitors on the lineup, just one missed weight: Rodriguez (8-1, 1-1 UFC), who clocked in a pound heavy for his bantamweight meeting with surging youngster Rosas (7-0, 1-0 UFC). Rosas will be looking for his second UFC win before his 19th birthday, while the relatively elderly Rodriguez at 25 is also hunting for win no. 2 in the promotion. Grappling should be on display for this catchweight affair, one that will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson. Nonsense has left the building, while former President Donald Trump is sitting next to Dana White. The fighters have no interest in touching gloves, and instead want to get right down to business. Rosas sprints at his opponent for a takedown, and Rodriguez easily stops it and gets pushed to the wall. A second try from Rosas trips Rodriguez to the floor for a moment, and he even lifts Rodriguez up in the air, but “CeeRod” keeps himself upright and knees the body. Rosas drops down for a single, and Rodriguez defends it by punching and elbowing Rosas in the face. “El Nino Problema” whips Rodriguez down to the mat, and he moves straight into half guard and shifts to side control. Rosas snatches up a guillotine choke, and Rodriguez times this perfectly to flip over him and gain dominant position. Rosas explodes back to his feet before falling victim to a potential submission, and he pushes Rodriguez up to the wire. Rosas clasps his hands around the waist, and Rodriguez remains upright and has his mouthpiece knocked out by a jump knee from his opponent. Rosas yanks Rodriguez down to the floor, and Rodriguez stands up. Rosas jumps on his back and hooks his legs around the waist for a body triangle, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The forearm is not under the neck and is more of a face crank, but Rodriguez grits it out and fights the hands to stop the choke from succeeding. Rosas resets it and secures the arm on the jaw, and he squeezes with all his might. Rodriguez lowers himself to the floor, and he protects himself by hand-fighting again. Rosas secures the body triangle again, crushing down below the ribs, and Rodriguez attempts to turn over. Rosas looks to switch for an armbar setup, but he bails on it to hang on until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas

Round 2
The two fighters meet in the middle, and Rosas instantly starts the round by shooting for a single. Rodriguez bowls him over and pushes the youngster to the mat. Briefly taking side control, Rodriguez cannot keep him down and stands up. He greets Rosas with a knee and an elbow, and Rosas holds on and drops down for a failed single. Rodriguez pushes him off and steps back from a spinning back kick, and he attacks another takedown and manages to take Rodriguez’ back standing. The 18-year-old, who appears to be fading slightly, pulls Rodriguez down to the floor momentarily. Rodriguez climbs back up with the wall behind him, and he looks to grab Rosas’ leg from behind his own. Rosas falls to his back, and he throws his legs up for a potential inverted triangle setup. Rodriguez shrugs it off and moves to north-south position, and he shifts over to half guard and drops down an elbow. Rosas rolls and scrambles wildly, but Rodriguez follows him every step of the way and winds up in side control, elbowing the body. Rosas attempts to push off the wall with his feet, and he rolls to his knees and gives up his back. Rodriguez bullies Rosas down to the floor, and he locks up the body triangle and gains possession of the back. Rosas turns over, and Rodriguez slugs him in the side of the head a few times while maintaining the body lock. Rodriguez sets up a rear-naked choke, and he softens “El Nino Problema” up with his right hand. Rodriguez maintains his leg grip tight as a drum, and he rides out the round on the back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The final round kicks off, and this time, Rosas does not frantically shoot for takedown. Rodriguez catches him with a right hand, and he times a leaping Rosas with another overhand right. The punches of Rodriguez slightly dislodge the youngster’s mouthpiece, and he bears down on him and slugs him a few more times. Rosas charges for a takedown, and he releases the grip when it fails. Rodriguez stops it and stands up, and he meanders towards his opponent and staves off another entry. Rosas leaps forward with a left hand, and Rodriguez whiffs on a counter. The 18-year-old ends up giving up his back when shooting in for a takedown, and Rodriguez pummels him until throwing Rosas down to the ground and claiming the mount position. The calm Rodriguez flattens his prey out briefly, and he pounds on him with unblocked punches. Rodriguez postures up and slowly, methodically beats on Rosas, who latches onto his left arm with all his might. Rodriguez elbows behind the ear, and he wraps up the body lock and takes the back. Rodriguez plants his elbow on Rosas’ dome, and he considers a choke but elects to keep punching Rosas. Rodriguez threatens with rear-naked choke setups from both arms, and he looks to shift over to mount but instead fastens his grip for a face crank. Rosas twists and turns, but Rodriguez is wise to every move and smacks him around. With 20 seconds to spare, Rodriguez releases his leg grip and stands back up. Rodriguez eats a left hand and nails Rosas with a few left hands of his own. The fight comes to a close, and the undefeated record of the 18-year-old is about to go up in smoke.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Raul Rosas Jr. via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Angelo is confident in Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Christian Rodriguez has been taken down 10 times in the UFC, and Raul is a relentless grappler who doesn't let people up. He thinks it's that simple: Raul will take him down and control him. He has a moneyline bet at -185 and expects the line to move further in Raul's favor.

moneyline bet at -185
"I got Raul Rosas at minus 185. but this line is sort of all over the place"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by first-round submission, impressed by his grappling and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down by previous opponents and that Rosas has elite BJJ. He warns about Rodriguez's guillotine but believes Rosas will be wise to it. He predicts an early finish.

first round submission
"I'm gonna go rob Rose's Junior first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Cody picks Rosas, arguing that despite his age, he is rapidly improving and his wrestling should be effective against Rodriguez, who has poor takedown defense. Cody notes that Rodriguez is still developing himself and the gap between an 18-year-old and a 25-year-old isn't huge. He believes Rosas' physical maturity and grappling will carry him, and that the price is fair. He acknowledges Rosas may eventually be humbled but not here.

"I think he is the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Connor picks Rosas because Rodriguez takes himself out of position and fights into the clinch, where Rosas excels. Rosas is a great back-taker and crushing positional grappler. Rodriguez showed vulnerability to takedowns against Joshua Weems, and Rosas is a much better grappler. Connor doesn't see anything in Rodriguez's game that suggests he can stay off the ground or win if taken down.

Rosas opened at -175, now -233; Rodriguez opened at +156, now +203. Connor thinks the odds could get wider.
"You got to take Raul."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Jacob is also confident in Raul, sharing a story about how Raul started grappling after being out-grappled once, showing his natural talent. He notes that Christian Rodriguez likes to scramble, which will lead to Raul taking his back. He predicts a finish after the first takedown.

"I like Raul with the finish I think it happens after the first takedown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a well-rounded prospect with pinpoint striking and good scrambles. Rosas is a young grappling phenom but his striking is raw and he makes positional mistakes. Rodriguez has the composure to reverse positions and keep the fight standing, where he has a clear advantage. I think Rosas's overzealous grappling will be exploited, and Rodriguez wins by knockout or decision.

"I think the guy with the brighter future out of both of these guys is Christian Rodriguez in my opinion he's the more complete fighter here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez as a dog but is hesitant. He questions Rosas' striking and notes that if Rodriguez can survive the early rounds and get back to his feet, he has a striking advantage. Paul points out Rodriguez's good scrambling and ability to land shots. He also mentions the Florida crowd might favor exciting striking over grinding wrestling. However, he acknowledges Rosas' wrestling is a threat and that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense.

"for the purposes of the show I'll pick the dog in Christian Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Raul Rosas Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by second-round submission via face crank. He initially thought decision but changed due to Rodriguez's bad weight cut. He expects Rodriguez to do well early but fade, with Rosas taking over in scrambles and eventually sinking in a choke over the jaw. He describes a detailed grappling sequence leading to the tap.

second round submission, face crank
"I'm gonna go with Raul roses Jr by second late second round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Zane picks Rosas because Rodriguez's takedown defense is poor, as seen against Weems. Rosas is an aggressive grappler with excellent back-taking and ground control. Zane notes that Rodriguez's record shows submissions, but he doesn't see anything that suggests he can avoid being taken down and controlled by Rosas.

Rosas opened at -175, now -233; Rodriguez opened at +156, now +203. Zane thinks the odds could get wider.
"Same."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.

"I think I'm going to lean Andre here. This is a pick that I might change later in the week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.

second round submission
"I like Rodriguez here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I have to pick Andre Fili."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.

by submission, odds comment: would be happy to pull the trigger at -180 range
"I think he is the technically superior fighter. It's just a size advantage of Rodriguez constantly fighting at 145 lbs when he should be down at 135. That gives me some cause for concern, but I think it's just a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.

"I'm going with Andre Philly. Crafty vet performance. Little bit too big. Little bit too physical. This is my underdog of the card."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I think I'm going to go with you. I want my gut says pick Rodriguez, but it does really feel like his game is not made to beat veterans right now."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 9 months, 3 weeks ago

Rod was disappointing in this fight. Should have wrestled more ect given Andre last performance. Ultimately he has to go back to 135. He doesn't have a range and struggles wrestling which Andre exploited for an easy win