Career Averages - Drew Dober
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
Drew Dober - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 51 of 164 | 31% | 51 of 164 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 83 of 161 | 51% | 85 of 163 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 27 of 80 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Prepolec | 51 of 164 | 31% | 36 of 139 | 7 of 13 | 8 of 12 | 51 of 164 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 83 of 161 | 51% | 46 of 117 | 18 of 22 | 19 of 22 | 77 of 153 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Prepolec | 17 of 66 | 25% | 11 of 53 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 28 of 58 | 48% | 12 of 40 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyle Prepolec | 27 of 80 | 33% | 20 of 70 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 58 | 60% | 18 of 36 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyle Prepolec | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 20 of 45 | 44% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 37 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-500); Prepolec (+375)
Round 1
Chins will be tested when this lightweight matchup is all said and done. Dober (27-15, 1 NC; 13-11, 1 NC UFC) may be one of the quietest recordholders in the promotion, as he and Dustin Poirier remain tied for the most knockouts (nine) in the history of the division. He gains a fortuitous matchup in Canada’s Prepolec (18-9, 0-3 UFC), who with a win tonight would earn his first in the Octagon after four efforts. The two will be joined by referee John Cooper, who will keep things on the up-and-up as the fighters choose not to touch gloves.
Prepolec offers an early low kick, and he leans back out of range from a check right hook. Both men land at the end of punches, and Dober scores a low kick behind it. Dober turns his hips behind another hefty leg kick, and he fires one more off and cracks Prepolec with a left hand. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his shin, and Dober completely ignores it and pops him with a one-two. Dober has his guard up to defend against a high kick the next time, and he swats away all but a body shot from the Canadian. Dober lunges in with a flurry of punches, his left hook finding the target. Dober goes low with a kick and high upstairs with a right hand. A Dober left misses by a hair, and Prepolec’s counters fall short as well. Dober pounds the front leg and puts fists on face immediately thereafter, with Prepolec left playing second fiddle with little more than an overhand left.
Dober scores with his left and chops the front leg with a kick, and he aims a body shot but is kicked back by the Canadian. Dober reaches with his big left, and his body kick plants on the torso. Dober kicks the thigh, and the leg brushes up against the cup. Prepolec waves Cooper off and they keep going. Dober’s kicks have started to have an impact on Prepolec’s front wheel, as Prepolec is ginger on it and open to big left hands. Dober catches him at the end of his left, and he flashes out a few jabs to set up a body shot. Dober backs his man off only to walk into a combination, and Prepolec grins. Even when Prepolec blocks a head kick, the impact of it bangs into his head. Dober whiffs on a wheel kick, clearly feeling himself in the Octagon. Prepolec doubles up jabs to mark up Dober’s nose, and he slips a punch and scores a straight left. Both men toss out head kicks, and Prepolec goes to the body. Prepolec’s jabs further bloody Dober’s nose, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Round 2
The lightweights bump fists this round, and Dober says hello with a low kick that transitions into a wheel kick. Prepolec tries to defend a low kick by raising his knee, but that only opens Dober up to throw a body shot. Prepolec strings together his own counters, and Dober takes them on the chin and swings back with bad intentions. Prepolec gets back behind his jab and two, and the nose of Dober begins to leak again. Prepolec checks a kick with an audible thud to it and splits Dober’s shin wide open, and he punches Dober in the face with both fists—one after the other, not at once. Dober shrugs it off and tries to brawl, only for Prepolec to answer him with two upstairs and a head kick. Dober rips the body and jams a kick on the lead leg, and Prepolec is ginger on it after taking damage. Dober kicks it on the inside and swipes out with a pair of hooks, and his left hand is catching the Canadian but not seeming to slow him. Dober gets off the wheel kick he was seeking, banging it into Prepolec’s raised guard. Dober slips a punch and counters with a big left hand up top.
Dober leaps forward behind a Superman punch, and Prepolec’s chin holds up well as he tanks it and hurls back. Dober goes to the body, and Prepolec returns fire with a few punches and a head kick that Dober rolls. Prepolec checks another kick, and Dober stumbles back from it. Prepolec slaps his foe’s inside thigh, and Dober blasts him with a left hand. Prepolec tries to spin through it with a back fist, but it is out of range. Prepolec snaps Dober’s head back with a right hand, and Dober belts him in the belly with his non-damaged shin. Dober opens up with power punches, and Prepolec stands in the pocket and bangs with him, even shaking Dober up with a left hand. Dober suddenly shoots in for a single-leg takedown, and Prepolec sits him up and staves it off. Both men stand up, and Dober bounces a left hand off the temple and releases his opponent’s leg. Prepolec chains a left hand into a head kick, and Dober is wearing it at this point but has hit Prepolec with everything and the kitchen sink. Prepolec splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dober to his knees with a ferocious left hand. Right before Prepolec is about to annihilate Dober with what would be an illegal soccer kick with Dober’s knee down, the round ends and Cooper is between them.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Round 3
When the last round begins, Dober shouts, “Let’s do it!” They nod to one another, touch gloves, and swing for the fences. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his foot, and Dober races after him with flailing punches. Dober unleashes a low kick with everything behind it, and it crashes directly into Prepolec’s cup. Prepolec collapses to the floor, and Cooper goes to the Canadian and practically begs him to take as much time as he needs instead of hurrying back. The partisan crowd starts a booming, profane chant of “F--- Drew Dober,” as Prepolec is in agony on his knees. Two minutes into the five-minute window, and Prepolec stands back up, albeit hunched over. Cooper keeps Prepolec informed of how much time he has left, and Prepolec responds that he is starting to feel better. Due to the severity of the foul, Cooper elects to deduct one point from Dober—this is the right call given the fight-changing nature of the illegal kick. Prepolec asks for them to restart the fight, and after 4:10 of recovery time, he is good to go.
Dober rushes after the Canadian and starts swinging for the bleachers. Practically sprinting at his opponent, Dober hurls punches in bunches and knocks Prepolec’s head around the cage. Prepolec leans over and takes a brutal knee to the chest that further makes him double over. Prepolec skirts away, and Dober rushes after him with one goal in mind: smash the Canadian’s face. Dober takes the counters that Prepolec offers, including a head kick or two, because he is a man possessed.
Backing Prepolec up against the cage, Dober blasts his man with a knee, an elbow and one final surge of punches. With Prepolec leaned over in bad shape, Cooper saves him from further punishment, and the fans are not having it.
Dober apologizes to the Vancouver masses for sending their fighter out like that, and they appear to accept his apology and stop raining down boos. While claps are sporadic, a few in the building realize the significance of Dober now the solo recordholder for the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history with 10.
The Official Result
Drew Dober def. Kyle Prepolec R3 1:16 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
Angelo picks Drew Dober to win, citing his technical striking and ability to grapple if needed. He notes Dober's recent chin issues but believes Kyle Prepolec is not a UFC-caliber fighter and lacks power. He expects Dober to find a finish, making him a good fantasy play at $9,400.
Big Brady is concerned about Drew Dober's age, fight mileage, and recent chin issues, but believes the skill gap is massive in Dober's favor. He notes Prepolec has never been knocked out and is likely more durable at this stage. He picks Dober by decision, staying away from the -550 price.
Cody picks Prepolec, citing value. He notes Dober's chin is declining and he has been knocked out recently. Prepolec has never been knocked out and has a full camp. Cody believes Prepolec can catch Dober and win by knockout, but admits it's a value play.
Connor picks Drew Dober but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dober seems to have lost his confidence and timing after the Manuel Torres loss. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's usual brawling approach may not work anymore. However, Connor still expects Dober to win because Prepolec is a step down in competition.
James picks Dober to win but notes value on Prepolec as an underdog. He questions Dober's recent chin issues after knockouts by Jean Silva and Matt Frevola, while Prepolec has never been knocked out. James expects a striking battle where Prepolec could land a head kick, but ultimately favors Dober's speed and experience.
The host is not a big fan of Dober at the super chalky line given his recent form and Prepolec being a striker himself. However, he still thinks Dober is the better all-around fighter and should mix striking and grappling to win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.
Paul leans Prepolec, agreeing with Cody on value. He notes Dober's durability is a question and Prepolec has power. Paul says he'll have a small bet on Prepolec but has low conviction.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec. He acknowledges Dober's recent KO loss to Manuel Torres but attributes that to Torres being a genetic freak with nasty power. He believes Dober still has it and will beat Prepolec easily, noting Prepolec shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts a TKO in the second round.
Zane picks Kyle Prepolec as a wild flyer, citing Dober's recent struggles and loss of confidence. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's path to victory is to slug it out, which may no longer work. Zane is not confident but sees value in the underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
James picks Drew Dober to win, arguing that Torres has never won outside round one except for a split decision where he gassed, and that elevation will worsen his cardio. He highlights Dober's elite chin, cardio, and forward pressure, noting Dober's last fight against Jean Silva showed his durability. James believes Dober will survive Torres' early onslaught and then dominate in rounds two and three, likely finishing Torres. He also mentions a potential submission angle for Torres but favors Dober's path to victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 0 | 59 of 147 | 40% | 59 of 148 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 53 of 109 | 48% | 53 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Silva | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jean Silva | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jean Silva | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 59 of 147 | 40% | 29 of 109 | 21 of 28 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 138 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 53 of 109 | 48% | 37 of 89 | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 48 of 101 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Silva | 20 of 58 | 34% | 7 of 41 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 16 of 42 | 38% | 10 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Silva | 30 of 70 | 42% | 17 of 53 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 61 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 31 of 55 | 56% | 23 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jean Silva | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jean Silva, having bet on him at +105. He believes Silva is the better striker and would win with a full camp, but cautions about the quick turnaround (fighting two weeks after UFC 303) and moving up in weight. He notes that Silva opened as an underdog but has become the favorite, and advises that betting at plus money was good but at current minus odds may not be worth it. He acknowledges Drew Dober's durability and chin.
Cody picks Jean Silva, impressed by his power and durability shown against Charles Jourdain. He believes Dober's chin is declining and that Silva's pressure and power will be too much. He notes Silva's camp at Fighting Nerds and his ability to generate power from any position.
Daniel Vreeland picks Drew Dober over Jean Silva. He cites Dober's experience, power, and size advantage as a true lightweight, while Silva is moving up from featherweight. He notes Dober's status as a lightweight KO king and that he lives in Colorado, giving him an altitude advantage. He acknowledges Silva's impressive performances but thinks the quick turnaround and elevation may affect him. He leans with the veteran Dober.
Drew Dober is the more technical striker. If he can stay competitive early, Jean Silva will slow down due to altitude and whiffing. Dober's solid striking defense will allow him to turn up the pace and potentially put Silva away in the second or third round.
Paul picks Jean Silva, citing his power and the fact that Dober's chin may be fading. He notes Silva's performance against Jourdain and believes Silva's pressure will overwhelm Dober. He expects an entertaining fight with a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 142 of 177 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 10:33 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 36 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 43 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 34 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 17 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 23 of 42 | 54% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 |
| Drew Dober | 23 of 59 | 38% | 17 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober, trusting his chin and brawling ability. He notes that Moicano is chinny and hasn't fought in a year. He believes Dober can bait Moicano into a firefight and knock him out. He has a half-unit bet on Dober at +125.
Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first-round submission. He notes that Moicano has a huge advantage on the ground, and Dober has been submitted multiple times. However, Moicano sometimes falls in love with striking, which would be dangerous against Dober's power. Brady thinks Moicano will take Dober down and submit him, but acknowledges it's a 50-50 fight.
Cody picks Moicano, citing Dober's declining durability and Moicano's superior grappling and angles. He notes Dober's chin is fading after the Fialho knockout, and Moicano can set up takedowns with his jab. He sees Moicano by submission as a strong prop.
Moicano has a tremendous BJJ black belt and should be able to drag Dober to the ground and sink in a rear naked choke. However, the host is hesitant due to Moicano's long layoff and knee surgery at 34 years old. Dober has power and good cardio, but is at a skill disadvantage on the ground. The host expects the fight not to go to decision, with Moicano winning by submission.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moicano. He highlights Dober's reckless pressure and suspect takedown defense, while Moicano's jab and movement should set up takedowns. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters, and Dober has never been at that level.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Renato Moicano, predicting a TKO. He cites Moicano's long layoff since November 2022 due to a leg injury, and doubts he will look his best. He believes Dober has more power on the feet and has impressive wins over Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves, and Bobby Green. He thinks Moicano will struggle to take Dober down and that Dober will catch him with his hands down, Korean Zombie style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Ricky Glenn | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 1 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Ricky Glenn | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Ricky Glenn | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Ricky Glenn | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober confidently, citing his technical kickboxing, power, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Ricky Glenn struggles when opponents bring a brawl. However, he expresses concern about Dober's chin after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola, wondering if it's the beginning of the end. He has Dober in a parlay with Kanako Murata, calling it risky.
Big Brady is very confident in Drew Dober, calling the matchup questionable and noting Ricky Glenn's poor performance in his last fight. He believes Glenn looks washed and has had long layoffs due to injuries. He expects Dober's power to be too much, predicting a first-round knockout despite Glenn only being knocked out once in his career.
Cody picks Dober but is hesitant, noting that Dober's chin may be compromised after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola. He acknowledges Glenn's sneaky power and low activity, but believes Dober's experience and power give him the edge. He does not like the line and sees better value elsewhere.
Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, noting that Dober has always been a step ahead of Ricky Glenn in competition. He highlights Dober's power and his record for most KOs in the lightweight division, but also acknowledges Glenn's durability (only one KO loss in over 30 fights). He thinks Dober should get back on track but doesn't guarantee a KO.
Lucrative James predicts Dober wins by knockout in round two or three. He thinks the line is wide but Dober should get the finish. He notes Dober has good takedown defense but struggles to get back up if taken down. He believes Glenn is slowing down and Dober will eventually crack his chin.
Dober has power and speed advantages, and Glenn has durability concerns after a long layoff and surgeries. However, Dober is unreliable as a heavy favorite and Glenn can also knock him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Dober getting a KO, but the odds are too high to trust. I predict Dober by KO but won't bet the moneyline.
Paul picks Ricky Glenn as a value play, citing Dober's recent knockout loss and Glenn's volatility. He notes that Glenn has sneaky power and could catch Dober. However, he is not highly confident, calling it a high-volatility fight. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop as a safer bet.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn, predicting a TKO. He jokes about Dober's racially motivated power but seriously notes Glenn looked like an 'old age pensioner' in his last fight against Christos Giagos, slow and predictable. He believes Dober has decent takedown defense and will land body shots, finishing Glenn in the late first round. He also mentions Glenn stands upright, making him vulnerable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)
Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.
The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.
Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.
Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.
The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.
Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.
The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.
Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 34 of 121 | 28% | 34 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| King Green | 0 | 73 of 142 | 51% | 75 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 17 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 0 | 39 of 87 | 44% | 40 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| King Green | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 34 of 121 | 28% | 16 of 86 | 9 of 21 | 9 of 14 | 33 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| King Green | 73 of 142 | 51% | 50 of 113 | 17 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 72 of 141 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 17 of 71 | 23% | 5 of 50 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 39 of 87 | 44% | 27 of 71 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 17 of 50 | 34% | 11 of 36 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| King Green | 34 of 55 | 61% | 23 of 42 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober hesitantly, acknowledging that this is a very tough fight to call. He notes Dober has a great chin and power, while Bobby Green is more technically sound with higher volume and better defense. He worries that Dober might get touched up like in the Nazrat fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this fight due to low confidence.
Big Brady picks Bobby Green as an underdog, citing his recent impressive performances and high volume. He worries about Green's fight IQ and the judges, but thinks Green will outland Dober. He notes Dober will land the harder shots but Green's volume should win rounds. He also mentions Green could wrestle but likely won't. He predicts a close decision win for Green.
Cody picks Dober, believing his power and durability will sway judges. He notes Dober sits down on his punches and has good leg kicks. He thinks Green's flat-footed boxing style and head-shaking may not impress judges. He expects a close decision win for Dober and considers Dober by decision.
Green is a solid spot here. Dober has recency bias from two straight KOs, but Green is much more durable than those opponents (Rafael Alves, Terrence McKinney). Green will outstrike Dober, throw more combinations, and take home a decision. The line stayed around +130 to +135.
Paul leans Green, thinking he is a cleaner, more dynamic boxer who can win on volume. He notes Green has insane durability and will outland Dober. However, he is hesitant because Dober lands bigger shots and judges may favor damage. He says if the lines were flipped he wouldn't touch it, but at plus money he considers it.
The MMA Guru picks King Green over Drew Dober, despite many picking Dober. He compares Dober to Rafael Fiziev, whom Green nearly beat, and believes Green's style of straight punches and range control will trouble Dober. He notes Green's reach and height advantages and expects him to pepper Dober, swelling his eye and nose, and win a 29-28 decision. He also thinks Dober may not react well to Green's taunting.
Michael Johnson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.
Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.
Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.
James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.
The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.
Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.
Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 80 of 195 | 41% | 81 of 196 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 52 of 182 | 28% | 52 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 30 of 77 | 38% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 80 of 195 | 41% | 27 of 100 | 42 of 81 | 11 of 14 | 77 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 52 of 182 | 28% | 19 of 125 | 27 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 50 of 180 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 24 of 56 | 42% | 4 of 22 | 15 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 12 of 46 | 26% | 2 of 23 | 7 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 77 | 38% | 14 of 47 | 10 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 66 | 25% | 7 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 26 of 62 | 41% | 9 of 31 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 23 of 70 | 32% | 10 of 51 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.
Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.
Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.
The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.
Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.
Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.
Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.
Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.
Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 61 of 112 | 54% | 80 of 138 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:02 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 52 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 40 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 61 of 112 | 54% | 16 of 47 | 36 of 52 | 9 of 13 | 58 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Darrius Flowers | 33 of 64 | 51% | 10 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 32 of 60 | 53% | 7 of 23 | 17 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrius Flowers | 20 of 36 | 55% | 1 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 8 of 20 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Darrius Flowers | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Darrius Flowers | 6 of 8 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.
Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.
Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 46 | 10 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 32 of 58 | 55% | 13 of 34 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 24 of 55 | 43% | 13 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.
Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.
Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.
The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.
Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 83 of 181 | 45% | 83 of 181 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 55 of 127 | 43% | 55 of 127 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 83 of 181 | 45% | 37 of 116 | 37 of 55 | 9 of 10 | 79 of 171 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 3 |
| Marc Diakiese | 55 of 127 | 43% | 21 of 80 | 24 of 31 | 10 of 16 | 52 of 124 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Marc Diakiese | 23 of 38 | 60% | 6 of 16 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 61 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 11 of 40 | 27% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 41 of 79 | 51% | 18 of 48 | 19 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Marc Diakiese | 21 of 49 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 19 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.
Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.
Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.
The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.
Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.
Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 66 of 190 | 34% | 68 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 96 of 217 | 44% | 96 of 218 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 45 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 31 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 66 of 190 | 34% | 42 of 147 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 179 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 96 of 217 | 44% | 54 of 160 | 21 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 83 of 195 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 44 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 45 of 95 | 47% | 24 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 34 of 79 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 70 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 31 of 69 | 44% | 20 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.
Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.
Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.
The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.
Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.
The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.
Expert Picks (9)
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!